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NBER Reporter NATIONAL BUREAU of ECONOMIC RESEARCH NBER Reporter NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH A quarterly summary of NBER research No. 1, March 2019 Program Report ALSO IN THIS ISSUE Misconduct and Employment of Financial Advisers Economics of Education Advisers with history Advisers with history of no misconduct of misconduct 100% 100% 45% Caroline Hoxby * 54% 81% 81% 22% 37% 10% 9% 24% 18% 0% 9% 10% 0% Men Women Men Women The enterprise of education has a supply side, where institu- Join dierent firm Leave the industry Remain with the firm tions produce education, and an investment side, where people Source: Researchers’ calculations using data from the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority acquire education. I say an “investment side” and not a “demand side” because education is largely an investment and not a form of consumption. Because it is an investment, the economics of educa- The Labor Market for Financial Misconduct 9 tion is guided by a great deal of theory that would not apply if edu- The Return of Survey Expectations 14 cation were a consumption good like, say, bread. Education econo- mists study both the supply of and investment in education. What Inventions Are We Missing? 18 On the supply side, we think about institutions’ objectives and Do Government Grants to Charities constraints. We consider competition among institutions and how Crowd Private Donations Out or In? 22 institutions interact with governments and taxpayers. We use mod- NBER News 26 els from public economics, political economy, industrial organiza- tion, regulation, and finance. Conferences 28 On the investment side, we consider whether people are under- Program and Working Group Meetings 33 or over-investing in their own or others’ education — a determina- NBER Books 42 tion primarily based on whether they are earning a higher or lower rate of return than what they could earn in an alternative invest- ment, such as physical capital. We consider market failures because the financing of human capital investments is failure-prone, owing to issues like moral hazard that occur when human beings them- selves are the vehicles for investment. We often investigate the potential for market failures due to people being poorly informed or irrational about investing in themselves — mispredicting their returns, say, or discounting the future in a hyperbolic manner. Applying economic analysis to education is the defining fea- ture of the NBER’s Economics of Education Program. As an NBER program, there are also some distinctive features. First, the research * Caroline Hoxby is the Scott and Donya Bommer Professor in Economics at Stanford University, an NBER research associate, and director of the Economics of Education Program. She is also a senior fellow of the Hoover Institution and of the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research. Reporter Online at: www.nber.org/reporter carried out by education economists now relies, to an unusual extent, on extremely NBER Reporter high-quality administrative data recorded by schools, governments, and authoritative third parties. The data are so accurate and comprehensive that we often can use ambi- The National Bureau of Economic Research is a private, nonprofit research orga- nization founded in 1920 and devoted to objective quantitative analysis of the tious econometric tools that are impracti- American economy. Its officers and board of directors are: cal with data that are sample-based, sparse, President and Chief Executive Officer — James M. Poterba or prone to error. Second, the program fea- Controller — Kelly Horak tures young scholars to an unusual extent, Corporate Secretary — Alterra Milone because in most years the share of education BOARD OF DIRECTORS economists in the cohort of new PhDs is Chair — Karen N. Horn greater than the share in the previous year. Vice Chair — John Lipsky These emerging scholars are highly produc- Treasurer — Robert Mednick tive, and they keep the program in a con- DIRECTORS AT LARGE stant state of rejuvenation and intellectual Peter Aldrich Diana Farrell Karen Mills excitement. Third, the program is unusually Elizabeth E. Bailey Jacob A. Frenkel Michael H. Moskow John H. Biggs Robert S. Hamada Alicia H. Munnell diverse and inclusive because education is so John S. Clarkeson Peter Blair Henry Robert T. Parry interesting to so many scholars. The partici- Kathleen B. Cooper Karen N. Horn James M. Poterba pants in program meetings represent a wide Charles H. Dallara Lisa Jordan John S. Reed George C. Eads John Lipsky Marina v. N. Whitman array of institutions, demographic back- Jessica P. Einhorn Laurence H. Meyer Martin B. Zimmerman grounds, national origins, and policy views. Mohamed El-Erian This energy and diversity make writing a report like this one a challenge: I cannot DIRECTORS BY UNIVERSITY APPOINTMENT possibly do justice to all of the research. So, Timothy Bresnahan, Stanford Samuel Kortum, Yale Pierre-André Chiappori, Columbia George Mailath, Pennsylvania in this report, I emphasize a few key topics Alan V. Deardorff, Michigan Marjorie B. McElroy, Duke that have received considerable attention in Edward Foster, Minnesota Joel Mokyr, Northwestern the past few years. In my conclusion, I dis- John P. Gould, Chicago Cecilia Elena Rouse, Princeton Mark Grinblatt, California, Los Angeles Richard L. Schmalensee, MIT cuss some up-and-coming topics as well. Bruce Hansen, Wisconsin-Madison Ing o Wa l t er, New York Benjamin Hermalin, California, Berkeley David B. Yoffie, Harvard Productivity in Higher Education DIRECTORS BY APPOINTMENT OF OTHER ORGANIZATIONS Jean-Paul Chavas, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association Our most important project, since my Martin Gruber, American Finance Association last report, is our initiative to analyze pro- Philip Hoffman, Economic History Association ductivity in higher education. Institutions Arthur Kennickell, American Statistical Association Jack Kleinhenz, National Association for Business Economics of higher education — from large elite Robert Mednick, American Institute of Certified Public Accountants research universities to small private colleges Peter L. Rousseau, American Economic Association and for-profit institutions — have never Gregor W. Smith, Canadian Economics Association William Spriggs, American Federation of Labor and been under greater scrutiny. Policymakers, Congress of Industrial Organizations families, philanthropists, and the media Bart van Ark, The Conference Board question whether the benefits of higher The NBER depends on funding from individuals, corporations, and private education justify the costs. These questions foundations to maintain its independence and its flexibility in choosing its are fundamentally about the productivity research activities. Inquiries concerning contributions may be addressed to James of the sector. M. Poterba, President & CEO, NBER, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02138-5398. All contributions to the NBER are tax-deductible. To answer these questions, the NBER, with support from the Alfred P. Sloan The Reporter is issued for informational purposes and has not been reviewed by Foundation and the Spencer Foundation, the Board of Directors of the NBER. It is not copyrighted and can be freely repro- commissioned nine papers to be the focus duced with appropriate attribution of source. Please provide the NBER’s Public Information Department with copies of anything reproduced. of a conference that brought together researchers, university leaders, policymak- Requests for subscriptions, changes of address, and cancellations should be sent ers, and journalists. The papers are available to Reporter, NBER, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02138-5398 (please include the current mailing label), or by email to [email protected]. Print as NBER working papers and as chapters copies of the Reporter are only mailed to subscribers in the U.S. and Canada; in a forthcoming volume, Productivity in those in other nations may request electronic subscriptions at www.nber.org/ Higher Education. The studies use rich and drsubscribe/. 2 NBER Reporter • No. 1, March 2019 novel administrative data, employ States.1 While the study emphasizes students are poorly informed investors cogent economic reasoning, deploy productivity results based on life- or rely so greatly on third parties to pay the latest econometric methods, and time earnings because these matter their tuition. evince deep institutional understand- disproportionately for the financial Evan Riehl, Juan Saavedra, and ing. In combination, the papers are stability of the postsecondary sector, Miguel Urquiola draw upon data from fairly comprehensive: They include it also shows results based on public Colombia, a country with a vigorous studies of the returns to undergrad- service and innovation. The study’s market for higher education that is uate education, how costs differ by most important advance, however, is not dissimilar to that of the United major, the productivity of for-profit addressing the aforementioned selec- States.2 Importantly, Colombian stu- schools, the productivity of various tion problem by employing all of the dents’ learning is assessed by examina- types of instructors, and how online possible quasi-experiments in which a tions not only before they enter uni- education has affected the market. student “flips a coin” between schools versities but also when they exit. The Analyses of productivity in that have nearly identical selectiv- researchers demonstrate that college higher education productivity based must confront sig- on learning is quite
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