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Ncsoft (036570 KS) OP to Double in 1Q20 and 2020 NCsoft (036570 KS) OP to double in 1Q20 and 2020 Game 4Q19 review: Underlying OP much better than expected Company Report For 4Q19, NCsoft announced revenue of W533.8bn (+34% YoY) and operating profit of February 13, 2020 W141.1bn (+25% YoY). Operating profit missed the consensus (W185bn), but this was primarily because of changes to the revenue recognition method for mobile titles (from a gross to a partial basis). Due to the changes, 20% of Lineage 2M revenue and less than 10% of Lineage M revenue in the quarter was deferred to 1Q20. (Maintain) Buy Labor expenses were also much higher than anticipated, due to the front-loading of employee incentives related to the successful release of Lineage 2M. In 4Q19, Lineage Target Price (12M, W) 910,000 2M’s daily average revenue was slightly above W5bn, higher than our aggressive forecast of W4.9bn. We believe Lineage M’s 4Q19 daily average revenue was W2.3- Share Price (02/12/20, W) 650,000 2.4bn, also higher than our expectation. 1Q20 and 2020 OP to double QoQ and YoY, respectively Expected Return 40% Lineage 2M’s traffic has been increasing sharply ever since its release. Daily active users (DAU) and peak concurrent users (PCU; a measure of an MMORPG’s popularity) OP (19, Wbn) 479 have both continued to grow in February. Data show that Lineage 2M’s daily average Consensus OP (19F, Wbn) 519 revenue in January fell only 6.8% MoM. EPS Growth (19, %) -14.8 For 1Q20, we expect revenue of W719bn (+100% YoY) and operating profit of W312bn Market EPS Growth (19F, %) -34.9 (+292% YoY). For 2020 as a whole, we forecast revenue and operating profit to grow to P/E (19, x) 33.3 W2.69tr (+59% YoY) and W1.12tr (+134% YoY), respectively, driven by robust traffic and Market P/E (19F, x) 15.6 revenue trends for Lineage M and Lineage 2M. We assume 2020 daily average revenue KOSPI 2,238.38 of W2bn for Lineage M and W3bn for Lineage 2M. Market Cap (Wbn) 14,270 Focus on big picture more than momentum; Maintain Buy and TP of Shares Outstanding (mn) 22 W910,000 Free Float (%) 81.9 The 4Q19 results have increased visibility on 2020 earnings. Despite its recent rally, Foreign Ownership (%) 51.8 NCsoft is still trading at a P/E of 15.9x based on our 2020F EPS, the low end of its P/E Beta (12M) 0.31 band over the past two decades. The company’s earnings forecasts and valuation are 52-Week Low 430,500 also more compelling compared to those of other major gaming companies in the US, 52-Week High 672,000 Japan, and China. (%) 1M 6M 12M A number of new releases are expected in 2020, including the new titles Aion 2 and Absolute 6.9 24.0 49.9 Blade & Soul 2 and the overseas launch of Lineage 2M in Japan and Taiwan. Given the Relative 5.4 7.6 46.7 young age profile of Lineage 2M gamers and the rising appeal of Korean MMORPGs globally amid the advancement of the mobile content industry, we believe the big 150 NCsoft KOSPI picture is very positive for NCsoft. 130 Due to continued foreign buying since Lineage 2M’s release, foreign ownership in 110 NCsoft is now at a record 51.7%. If the 1Q20 earnings picture becomes clearer or new 90 release schedules are revealed, we expect the stock to gain further momentum. We maintain our Buy rating and target price of W910,000. 70 2.19 6.19 10.19 2.20 Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. [Internet] FY (Dec.) 12/16 12/17 12/18 12/19 12/20F 12/21F Revenue (Wbn) 984 1,759 1,715 1,701 2,696 2,882 Chang-kwean Kim +822-3774-1614 OP (Wbn) 329 585 615 479 1,122 1,397 [email protected] OP Margin (%) 33.4 33.3 35.9 28.2 41.6 48.5 NP (Wbn) 272 441 418 356 900 1,014 EPS (W) 12,416 20,104 19,061 16,235 40,994 46,203 ROE (%) 14.9 19.1 16.4 14.3 30.1 26.6 P/E (x) 19.9 22.3 24.5 33.3 15.9 14.1 P/B (x) 2.7 3.4 3.7 3.9 3.8 3.0 Dividend Yield (%) 1.5 1.6 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.9 Note: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including the U.S. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT. February 13, 2020 NCsoft Table 1. Quarterly and annual earnings (Wbn, %) 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20F 2Q20F 3Q20F 4Q20F 2018 2019 2020F Revenue 475 436 404 400 359 411 398 534 719 611 582 784 1,715 1,701 2,696 Lineage 28 42 40 39 21 50 52 51 48 45 41 47 150 174 181 Lineage II 14 13 16 21 22 21 23 28 23 22 23 20 64 94 87 Aion 19 16 16 13 12 12 13 8 11 9 10 10 63 46 40 Blade & Soul 34 31 30 25 23 21 21 18 17 15 15 18 120 84 65 Guild Wars 2 24 20 21 16 16 16 15 11 11 11 11 18 80 59 51 Mobile games 264 210 216 223 199 224 213 363 553 453 426 613 913 999 2,046 Other 8 13 12 11 8 15 16 10 11 10 11 14 44 49 46 Royalties 84 92 52 53 57 52 44 44 45 45 45 44 282 198 180 OP 204 160 139 113 80 129 129 141 312 242 227 341 615 479 1,122 OP margin 42.9 36.5 34.4 28.3 22.2 31.5 32.4 26.4 43.4 39.7 39.0 43.4 35.9 28.2 41.6 Net profit 119 140 94 68 75 117 114 54 250 194 196 267 422 359 907 Net margin 25.1 32.1 23.4 16.9 20.8 28.4 28.6 10.1 34.8 31.8 33.7 34.0 24.6 21.1 33.6 YoY growth Revenue 98.3 68.8 -44.5 -25.0 -24.5 -5.9 -1.5 33.4 100.4 48.7 46.2 46.9 -2.5 -0.8 58.5 Lineage -45.1 24.5 14.0 15.7 -26.7 19.1 28.6 31.7 129.8 -11.2 -20.8 -7.7 -3.0 16.3 3.8 Lineage II -22.7 -19.9 0.0 37.0 51.5 59.0 47.3 34.4 8.6 1.8 -2.3 -29.0 -2.9 46.5 -6.8 Aion 41.1 44.3 61.1 0.4 -34.3 -20.7 -19.2 -36.3 -13.6 -24.5 -24.4 20.3 35.2 -27.5 -13.7 Blade & Soul -23.9 -21.4 -20.8 -36.8 -31.3 -31.1 -28.6 -28.0 -28.0 -27.2 -29.9 -1.3 -25.8 -29.9 -22.6 Guild Wars 2 66.2 46.6 4.0 -55.0 -30.9 -20.0 -27.8 -27.8 -31.2 -29.0 -25.6 56.0 -3.2 -26.8 -12.3 Mobile games 1028.2 124.0 -60.7 -31.9 -24.7 6.6 -1.5 62.9 178.4 102.6 99.7 69.0 -8.2 9.4 104.8 Other -24.8 -15.6 -6.5 2.2 4.6 16.9 25.2 -8.4 29.2 -29.0 -31.7 43.7 -11.3 10.7 -4.8 Royalties 32.5 155.8 18.3 -10.3 -31.8 -44.2 -14.2 -17.0 -21.1 -13.1 1.8 0.3 38.9 -29.9 -9.1 OP 569.1 324.8 -57.6 -40.2 -61.0 -18.9 -7.3 24.7 292.3 87.2 76.0 141.4 5.1 -22.1 134.2 Net profit 584.9 355.0 -65.7 -44.0 -37.3 -16.7 20.3 -19.9 235.2 66.1 72.4 392.7 -5.0 -14.8 152.5 Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates Table 2. Earnings forecast revisions (Wbn, %) Previous Revised % chg. Note 2019F 2020F 2019 2020F 2019 2020F Revenue 1,737 2,666 1,701 2,696 -2.1 1.1 Reflected Operating profit 525 1,143 479 1,122 -8.8 -1.9 change to revenue Net profit 466 930 359 907 -22.8 -2.5 recognition OP margin 30.2 42.9 28.2 41.6 - - method for Net margin 26.8 34.9 21.1 33.6 - - mobile titles Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 2 February 13, 2020 NCsoft Figure 1. Lineage M: Domestic quarterly revenue (Wbn) 240 218 220 213 210 203 199 200 180 160 140 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20F Source: Sensor Tower, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates Figure 2. Lineage 2M: Daily revenue (Wbn) 16 12 January daily avg. revenue: -6.8% MoM 8 4 0 11/27 12/7 12/17 12/27 1/6 1/16 1/26 2/5 Source: Sensor Tower, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 3 February 13, 2020 NCsoft NCsoft (036570 KS/Buy/TP: W910,000) Comprehensive Income Statement (Summarized) Statement of Financial Condition (Summarized) (Wbn) 12/18 12/19F 12/20F 12/21F (Wbn) 12/18 12/19F 12/20F 12/21F Revenue 1,715 1,701 2,696 2,882 Current Assets 1,576 1,683 2,690 3,645 Cost of Sales 0 0 0 0 Cash and Cash Equivalents 186 295 1,045 1,952 Gross Profit 1,715 1,701 2,696 2,882 AR & Other Receivables 152 151 240 257 SG&A Expenses 1,100 1,222 1,574 1,485 Inventories 1 1 2 2 Operating Profit (Adj) 615 479 1,122 1,397 Other Current Assets 1,237 1,236 1,403 1,434 Operating Profit 615 479 1,122 1,397 Non-Current Assets 1,365 1,340 1,351 1,338 Non-Operating Profit 22 17 63 29 Investments in Associates 56 56 89 95 Net Financial Income 26 27 39 57 Property, Plant and Equipment 234 211 191 174 Net Gain from Inv in Associates -2 0 0 0 Intangible Assets 54 52 50 48 Pretax Profit 637 496 1,185 1,426 Total Assets 2,941 3,023 4,041 4,983 Income Tax 216 137 278 404 Current Liabilities 473 321 505 539 Profit from Continuing Operations 421 359 907 1,022 AP & Other Payables 27 27 42 45 Profit from Discontinued Operations 0 0 0 0 Short-Term Financial Liabilities 155 5 5 5 Net Profit 421 359 907 1,022 Other Current Liabilities 291 289 458 489 Controlling Interests 418 356 900 1,014 Non-Current Liabilities 89 89 140 150 Non-Controlling Interests 3 3 7 8 Long-Term Financial Liabilities 0 0 0 0 Total Comprehensive Profit 80 359 907 1,022 Other Non-Current Liabilities 89 89 140 150 Controlling Interests 77 345 871 981 Total Liabilities 562 409 645 689 Non-Controlling Interests 3 14 36 41 Controlling Interests 2,368 2,599 3,375 4,264 EBITDA 643 504 1,144 1,416 Capital Stock 11 11 11 11 FCF (Free Cash Flow) 326 382 1,045 1,063 Capital Surplus 433 433 433 433 EBITDA Margin (%) 37.5 29.6 42.4 49.1 Retained Earnings 2,164 2,396 3,171 4,061 Operating Profit Margin (%) 35.9 28.2 41.6 48.5 Non-Controlling Interests 11 14 21 29 Net Profit Margin (%) 24.4 20.9 33.4 35.2 Stockholders' Equity 2,379 2,613 3,396 4,293 Cash Flows (Summarized) Forecasts/Valuations (Summarized) (Wbn) 12/18 12/19F 12/20F 12/21F 12/18 12/19F 12/20F 12/21F Cash Flows from Op Activities 353 382 1,045 1,063 P/E (x) 24.5 33.3 15.9 14.1 Net Profit 421 359 907 1,022 P/CF (x) 15.6 24.6 12.3 10.4 Non-Cash Income and Expense 233 123 249 354 P/B (x) 3.7 3.9 3.8 3.0 Depreciation 26 23 20 18 EV/EBITDA (x) 14.0 20.7 10.4 7.8 Amortization 2 2 2 2 EPS (W) 19,061 16,235 40,994 46,203 Others 205
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