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Morning Focus September 4, 2017 KOREA Morning Focus Company News & Analysis Major Indices Close Chg Chg (%) Lotte Chemical (011170/Buy/TP: W600,000) KOSPI 2,357.69 -5.50 -0.23 Poised for a re-rating KOSPI 200 307.78 -0.50 -0.16 KOSDAQ 661.99 4.16 0.63 NCsoft (036570/Buy/TP: W600,000) IP competitiveness to drive both mobile and royalty revenues Turnover ('000 shares, Wbn) Volume Value KOSPI 277,015 4,669 Sector News & Analysis KOSPI 200 74,974 3,732 KOSDAQ 555,443 2,893 Auto (Neutral) August shipments: Weak production and inventory adjustments continue Market Cap (Wbn) Value Auto (Neutral) KOSPI 1,532,592 August US sales review - Sales remain weak; HMC's woes intensify KOSDAQ 225,244 KOSPI Turnover (Wbn) Buy Sell Net Foreign 1,471 1,395 76 Institutional 957 1,175 -218 Retail 2,175 2,071 104 KOSDAQ Turnover (Wbn) Buy Sell Net Foreign 242 215 27 Institutional 114 124 -10 Retail 2,539 2,548 -8 Program Buy / Sell (Wbn) Buy Sell Net KOSPI 979 1,202 -224 KOSDAQ 90 99 -9 Advances & Declines Advances Declines Unchanged KOSPI 405 401 64 KOSDAQ 673 441 101 KOSPI Top 5 Most Active Stocks by Value (Wbn) Price (W) Chg (W) Value Samsung Electronics 2,324,000 8,000 431 KODEX LEVERAGE 15,755 -30 190 LG Electronics 83,600 2,100 160 Hynix 68,700 100 157 KODEX 200 30,810 0 124 KOSDAQ Top 5 Most Active Stocks by Value (Wbn) Price (W) Chg (W) Value SillaJen 26,500 1,550 131 Posco Chemtech 33,150 150 74 Agabang 6,630 1,000 68 Celltrion 114,200 -900 56 GNI 10,400 1,790 40 Note: As of September 1, 2017 Mirae Asset Daewoo Research This document is a summary of a report prepared by Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. (“Mirae Asset Daewoo”) and published on our website. Please review the compliance notices contained in the original report. Information and opinions contained herein have been compiled in good faith from sources deemed to be reliable. However, the information has not been independently verified. Mirae Asset Daewoo makes no guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the fairness, accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this document. Mirae Asset Daewoo accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever for any loss arising from the use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Information and opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is for informational purposes only. It is not and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to purchase or sell any securities or other financial instruments. This document may not be reproduced, further distributed or published in whole or in part for any purpose. Lotte Chemical (011170 KS) Poised for a re-rating Chemicals Earnings growth to gain further momentum in 2H17; Reiterate as our top pick Company Update September 4, 2017 Retain TP of W600,000: We maintain our Buy rating and target price of W600,000 on Lotte Chemical and continue to recommend the stock as our top pick in chemicals. After falling on ethane cracker concerns, the stock has been rebounding after June, driven by improving product spreads (MEG, etc.) in August and the resilience of the PE cycle despite the operation of several ethane crackers. (Maintain) Buy Poised for a re-rating: Even after the recent strong run, Lotte Chemical’s stock Target Price(12M, W) 600,000 remains deeply undervalued, currently trading at a P/E of 5.7x. We believe this is because worries over a cyclical downturn remain, as the ethane crackers due for Share Price (09/01/17, W) 403,000 operation in 2H17 have not entirely come online. We also think there are some concerns over the stock’s strong absolute returns. However, it should be noted that Expected Return 49% two of the three ethane crackers scheduled for operation in 2H17 are in premarketing, meaning their impact on supply/demand is already playing out. We hence see limited risks of a sharp downturn in the PE cycle. In addition, we do not view the recent stock OP (17F, Wbn) 3,019 rally as excessive, given that EPS is improving much faster than share prices. If the PE Consensus OP (17F, Wbn) 2,803 cycle remains robust further into 2H17, we expect Lotte Chemical to see a meaningful re-rating (valuation recovery). EPS Growth (17F, %) 32.7 Market EPS Growth (17F, %) 43.7 Earnings growth to gain further momentum: With supply/demand already tight, P/E (17F, x) 5.7 large US production disruptions caused by Hurricane Harvey are fueling rapid spread Market P/E (17F, x) 9.8 expansions in key products. Given that the impacted facilities are expected to return to KOSPI 2,357.69 normal after October, earnings look likely to improve faster than previously anticipated in 3Q-4Q17. While this is only a short-term issue, the company’s strong Market Cap (Wbn) 13,813 earnings power and cheap valuation should provide further positive momentum to Shares Outstanding (mn) 34 share prices. Free Float (%) 46.5 Foreign Ownership (%) 30.6 Limited ethane cracker impact; Harvey triggers sharp spread expansion Beta (12M) 0.82 Robust PE/MEG spreads: Of the three ethane crackers scheduled to come online in 52-Week Low 269,000 2H17, Dow Chemical’s and ExxonMobil’s PE plants have already begun premarketing, 52-Week High 407,000 while Chevron’s is also having some impact on supply/demand. Nevertheless, the PE cycle remains robust, and we expect improvements after 2H17, given limited supply (%) 1M 6M 12M pressures through 2020. Spreads of non-ethylene products, such as MEG and Absolute 5.9 10.6 47.3 butadiene, are also picking up, and we see these product cycles improving in the next Relative 8.8 -1.9 27.0 two to three years. 160 Lotte Chemical KOSPI 3Q-4Q17 OP to top consensus: We forecast Lotte Chemical’s 3Q17 operating profit at 140 W787.7bn, above the current consensus (W700bn). After contracting in July, PE spreads have been widening again since mid-August, pointing to sharp earnings growth in 120 September. In the near term, production disruptions triggered by Hurricane Harvey 100 are likely to push up spreads further through October. Hence, we are also raising our 80 4Q17 operating profit estimate to W784.4bn. 8.16 12.16 4.17 8.17 Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. [ Oil Refining/Chemicals/Renewables] FY (Dec.) 12/14 12/15 12/16 12/17F 12/18F 12/19F Revenue (Wbn) 14,859 11,713 13,224 15,928 16,325 17,513 Yeon-ju Park +822-3774-1755 OP (Wbn) 351 1,611 2,544 3,019 3,236 3,521 [email protected] OP margin (%) 2.4 13.8 19.2 19.0 19.8 20.1 Minkyung Kim NP (Wbn) 147 993 1,836 2,437 2,664 2,914 +822-3774-1732 EPS (W) 4,285 28,957 53,561 71,088 77,722 85,020 [email protected] ROE (%) 2.3 14.2 21.7 23.3 20.7 18.8 P/E (x) 37.3 8.4 6.9 5.7 5.2 4.7 P/B (x) 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 Dividend yield (%) 0.6 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 Note: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including the U.S. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT. September 4, 2017 Lotte Chemical Table 1. Quarterly and annual earnings (Wbn) 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17F 4Q17F 2016 2017F 2018F Revenue Total 2,684.5 3,441.1 3,426.6 3,671.4 3,996.0 3,853.3 4,063.4 4,014.9 13,223.6 15,927.6 16,324.9 Olefins 1,456.4 1,583.2 1,559.6 1,894.9 1,934.0 1,931.2 1,965.9 1,965.9 6,494.1 7,797.0 7,694.5 Aromatics 465.2 435.6 478.2 577.9 724.2 750.7 767.8 709.1 1,956.9 2,951.9 2,969.0 Titan 558.7 580.1 556.1 590.3 495.8 457.0 572.5 581.0 2,285.2 2,106.4 2,355.8 Advanced 653.0 650.8 646.9 705.0 709.6 757.1 758.9 1,950.7 2,930.6 3,305.6 Operating profit Totalmaterials 473.6 693.9 643.2 733.5 814.8 632.2 787.7 784.4 2,544.3 3,019.2 3,235.8 Olefins 372.9 436.2 423.2 479.3 595.1 398.4 481.7 457.5 1,711.6 1,932.8 1,914.3 Aromatics 10.8 48.7 25.8 56.7 102.4 113.7 133.1 119.6 142.0 468.7 479.4 Titan 89.8 152.5 125.6 144.7 69.2 52.7 74.5 116.2 512.6 312.6 412.4 Advanced 88.6 82.9 68.2 70.6 78.3 98.4 91.1 239.7 338.4 429.7 Pretax profit materials 458.6 657.0 609.1 762.7 863.8 686.3 843.6 842.7 2,487.4 3,236.4 3,506.6 Net profit 346.2 459.7 450.9 579.0 640.2 515.3 640.9 640.2 1,835.8 2,436.6 2,663.9 Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates Mirae Asset Daewoo Research NCsoft (036570 KS) IP competitiveness to drive both mobile and royalty revenues Game Watch for potential royalty revenue growth Company Update While Lineage M remains a key determinant of NCsoft’s earnings, royalty revenue is another important driver of the company’s margins.
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