Tees Valley 2012 Strategic Housing Market Assessment

Final Report for Unlimited

Main Contact: Michael Bullock

arc4 Ltd T: 0191 386 0026 F: 07092 158 162 Email: [email protected] Website: www.arc4.co.uk

Publishing Date: 21st May 2012

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Executive Summary ...... 6 1. Introduction...... 11 Background and objectives...... 11 Definitions...... 11 SHMA Guidance...... 12 NPPF requirements ...... 14 Geography...... 14 Research methodology...... 14 Presentation of data...... 15 Report structure...... 17 2. Policy and strategic review...... 18 Introduction...... 18 National policy ...... 18 Regional and Sub Regional Strategic Context ...... 27 Concluding comments ...... 28 3. Tees Valley Housing Market Context...... 29 Introduction...... 29 House prices and trends...... 29 Source: Land Registry ...... 33 Relative affordability ...... 33 Household migration and search behaviour...... 35 Characteristics of moving households ...... 35 Households planning to move...... 42 Travel to work trends ...... 44 Concluding comments ...... 45 4. Strategic Housing Market Assessment Core Outputs...... 46 Introduction...... 46 Core Output 1: Estimates of current dwellings in terms of size, type, condition, tenure 46 Core Output 2: Past and current housing market trends; balance between supply and demand; key drivers ...... 54 Core Output 3: Future households ...... 71 Core Output 4: Current households in need ...... 74 Core Output 5: Future households requiring affordable housing...... 77 Core Output 6: Future households requiring market housing ...... 78 Core Output 7: Size of affordable housing required...... 83 The new delivery model for affordable housing...... 89 Core Output 8: Estimates of household groups who have particular housing requirements 90 5. Review of general market demand...... 97 arc4 3 Tees Valley 2012 Strategic Housing Market Assessment Final Report

Overall dwelling requirements...... 97 Market housing: key issues...... 98 6. Conclusion: policy and strategic issues ...... 104 The current housing market...... 104 Housing markets and mobility...... 105 Future housing market...... 105 Housing need and demand...... 106 Final comments ...... 108

Introduction to Technical Appendices ...... 109 Technical Appendix A: Research Methodology ...... 110 Overall approach ...... 110 Baseline dwelling stock information and survey sample errors ...... 110 List of stakeholders interviewed as part of the SHMA process...... 113 Technical Appendix B: The Current Housing Market...... 114 Summary of contents...... 114 Introduction...... 114 Stage 1: Demographic and economic context...... 115 Stage 2: The housing stock ...... 128 Stage 3: The active market...... 139 Stage 4: Bringing the evidence together ...... 153 Technical Appendix C: The Future Housing Market ...... 163 Technical Appendix D: Housing need calculations ...... 176 Introduction...... 176 Stage 1: Current need ...... 178 Stage 3: Affordable housing supply ...... 185 Stage 4: Estimate of annual housing need...... 190 Tenure and dwelling type profile of affordable dwellings...... 192 Technical Appendix E: household groups who have particular housing requirements ...... 195 Families...... 195 Older people...... 195 Homelessness issues...... 202 Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic issues...... 203 Technical Appendix F: Monitoring and updating ...... 205 A framework for updating the housing needs model and assessment of affordable housing requirements ...... 205 Updating of contextual information...... 206 Reflections on the general strategic context and emerging issues...... 206 Concluding comments ...... 207 Technical Appendix G: Statement of conformity to SHMA guidance...... 208 arc4 4 Tees Valley 2012 Strategic Housing Market Assessment Final Report

Technical Appendix H: Affordable housing policy considerations ...... 210 Introduction...... 210 Local Planning Policy Context ...... 210 Planning Policy Considerations ...... 212 Policy Recommendations ...... 213

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Executive Summary

Introduction The 2012 Tees Valley Strategic Housing Market Assessment is a major research study which will help to shape the future planning and housing policies of the area. The research will help inform the production of local authority Local Development Frameworks and Housing Strategies. Tees Valley is located in the North East of and comprises five local authorities (Darlington, Hartlepool, , and Cleveland and Stockton-on-Tees). Four local authorities (excluding Darlington) are participating in the 2012 SHMA (or collectively referred to in this report as the TV4 area). This research provides an up-to-date analysis of the social, economic, housing and demographic situation across the TV4 area. The study has been carried out by arc4 Ltd and has included:  A major household survey which was completed by 8,704 households which represented a 15.7% response rate;  Interviews with stakeholders; and  A review of existing data; The findings from the study will provide a robust and defensible evidence base for future policy development which conforms to the Government’s Strategic Housing Market Assessment guidance.

Housing market context House prices Median house prices across the Tees Valley have increased dramatically over the period 2000 to 2010, from around £48,000 in 2000 to £114,000 in 2011, representing an increase of 135%. Within Tees Valley, there are considerable variations in house prices and values, with prices in Hartlepool and Middlesbrough tending to be below the regional average, with similar to the regional average and Darlington and Stockton-on-Tees consistently above the regional average.

Dwelling stock Across the TV4 area there are a total of 247,661 dwellings of which 12,175 are vacant, resulting in a total of 235,486 occupied dwellings. Overall, across the TV4 area:  77.4% of properties are houses, 11.8% are flats/maisonettes, 10.3% are bungalows and 0.5% are other property types (e.g. caravans);  9.1% have one bedroom, 25.8% have two bedrooms, 47.4% have three bedrooms and 17.7% have four or more bedrooms;  9.7% of properties were built before 1919, a further 16.7% were built between 1919 and 1944, 24.1% between 1945 and 1964, 28% between 1965 and 1984 and 21.5% have been built since 1985; arc4 6 Tees Valley 2012 Strategic Housing Market Assessment Final Report

 66.2% of properties are owner-occupied, 22.6% are rented from a social landlord, 9.4% are private rented and 1.7% are intermediate tenure (e.g. shared ownership);

Demographic drivers The population of the TV4 area is estimated to be 563,3001 with Government population projections showing an increase to 601,700 by 20332. Over the next few decades, the age profile of residents in the TV4 area is expected to change dramatically. There will be a considerable ‘demographic shift’ with both the number and proportion of older people increasing. Overall the number of people aged 65 and over is projected to increase by 53.2% (or by 50,000) by 2033; the number of 75+ residents is expected to increase by 70.5% (31,000) by 2033.

Economic drivers Across the TV4 area, 44.6% of households have a gross income of the head of household and partner (if applicable) of less than £300 each week and 33.7% receive at least £500 each week 87.9% of people in employment work within the TV4 area. Of those working outside the TV5 area, 2.6% worked in , 3.1% in , 5.4% elsewhere in the UK and 1.0% outside the UK

Market areas The Department of Communities and Local Government (CLG) suggests that a housing market is self-contained if upwards of 70% of moves (migration and travel to work) take place within a defined area. An analysis of migration data suggests that 88.8% of households move within the TV4 area and 87.9% work within the TV4 area, therefore the TV4 area can be described as a self contained functional housing market. Individual districts are all self-contained in terms of migration but not in terms of travel to work as the proportion of residents working in the same District below the 70% CLG threshold. None of the sub-areas can be described as self-contained with the exception of Billingham (Stockton-on-Tees) with 73.7% of households moving within the same sub-area.

Housing need and affordable housing Housing need is defined as ‘the quantity of housing required for households who are unable to access suitable housing without financial assistance’. A key element of the

1 ONS 2010 mid-year population estimates 2 ONS 2008-based population projections arc4 7 Tees Valley 2012 Strategic Housing Market Assessment Final Report study is to explore the scale of housing need and the extent to which additional affordable housing is needed. Affordable housing is defined as either social/affordable rented or intermediate housing which is provided and made available to eligible households (i.e. those who lack their own housing or live in unsuitable housing) who cannot afford to meet their needs through the market. Intermediate affordable housing is housing at prices and rents above those of social rents, but below market prices or rents. The scale of affordable requirements has been assessed by taking into account the annual need from existing and newly-forming households within each Local Authority District and comparing this with the supply of affordable (social/affordable rent and intermediate tenure dwellings). The overall net shortfall is 936 affordable dwellings across the TV4 area each year. This figure is a measure of the extent to which the requirement for affordable housing is greater than the current supply. Table ES1 provides a summary of annual affordable shortfalls by authority area. In terms of the split between social rented and intermediate tenure products, the household survey identified tenure preferences of existing and newly-forming households. This suggests a tenure split of 70% affordable (social) rented and 30% intermediate tenure.

Table ES1 Annual affordable housing requirements by local authority, property size and designation (general needs/older person) 2012/13 to 2016/17 District General Older Smaller 1/2 Larger 3+ 1/2 bedroom bedroom bedrooom TOTAL Hartlepool 103 -43 29 89 Middlesbrough 218 -43 15 190 Redcar and Cleveland 192 -99 4 97 Stockton on Tees 466 48 46 560 TV4 979 -137 94 936 Note: Minus figures indicate there is sufficient supply relative to demand

Market demand Households intending to move in the open market were asked what type and size of property they would like and expect to move to. Of households moving, most would like to move to a house (79.8%), 18.2% would like to move to a bungalow and 2% to a flat. This compares with 81.2% who expect to move to a house, 15.9% to a bungalow and 2.8 to % a flat. Although households are expecting to broadly achieve their aspirations, a higher proportion would like to move to a detached house (59.6%) but only 34.4% expect to. In contrast, higher proportions expect to move to a semi-detached house (38.7%) than would prefer to (17.3%). In terms of property size, the majority of respondents expect to move to a property with two (19%), three (54.1%) or four or more (25.8%) bedrooms. A higher proportion of households would like a property with four or more bedrooms (42.9%). arc4 8 Tees Valley 2012 Strategic Housing Market Assessment Final Report

Newly-forming households have moved to semi-detached houses (31.8%), terraced houses and flats/apartments (27.2%); and properties with two (40.7%) and three (35.1%) bedrooms. Using household survey data, it is possible to ascertain market demand (as measured by the aspirations from existing households, newly-forming households and in-migrant households). This can then be reconciled with the likely supply based on turnover rates in the preceding five years. Table ES2 shows where there are imbalances in the provision of general market accommodation relative to expectations. In summary, analysis of general market supply and demand suggests that the open market is generally balanced across the TV4 area level, but there are some notable variations by individual Local Authorities:  Hartlepool: notable shortfall of detached houses in the inner suburbs and town centre and across the district generally; shortfall of terraced properties in the outer suburbs; and bungalows across most of the district; market in rural area most balanced in terms of supply meeting demand. Supply of terraced dwellings rural areas, flats in Inner and Outer Suburbs; and one bedroom properties in the Town Centre and Outer Suburbs considerably greater than demand.  Middlesbrough: shortfall of detached across all sub-areas and bungalows in most, particularly the north and south sub-areas; shortfalls of larger properties (four or more bedrooms) and three bedroom properties across most sub- areas; market imbalances most apparent in Greater Hemlington, South and East sub-areas. Supply of two bedroom properties in most areas considerably greater than demand; along with semi-detached and terraced properties in the North sub-area and flats in the West sub-area.  Redcar and Cleveland: market general balanced with the exception of Greater South (with notable shortfalls of three, four + bedroom and most property types), (notable shortfalls of 4+ bedroom and detached houses) and Loftus (shortfall of detached and most property sizes). Supply considerably exceeds demand in particular locations including Redcar (for private rented, one bedroom and flats), Saltburn (one bedroom and semi- detached and terraced houses); and large (4+) properties, terraced and bungalows in Greater Eston North.  Stockton on Tees: Shortfall of bungalows across most of the district and 4+ bedroom and detached properties in the Inner Core, Outer Core and Thornaby areas. Markets less likely to be balanced in Billingham and Stockton Outer Core. Supply considerably exceeds demand for terraced properties across most of the district and flats in Stockton Inner Core, Thornaby and /Preston/Eaglescliffe sub-areas. Future development should focus on delivering to address identified shortfalls and reflect household aspirations.

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Older people and adaptations Addressing the accommodation requirements of older people is going to become a major strategic challenge for Tees Valley Local Authorities over the next few decades, with the number of residents aged 65 or over expected to increase dramatically. The vast majority of older people (62.2%) want to continue to live in their current home with support when needed. A further 20.5% are considering renting sheltered accommodation, 15.4% renting extra-care housing but 27.7% would consider an alternative Social Rented dwelling and 17.5% would consider buying a property on the open market. This evidence points to the need to diversify older persons’ provision within the TV4 area. In terms of adaptations to existing properties, 15.5% of all households needed better heating, 14.4% more insulation, 13.3% double glazing and 8.9% adaptations to bathrooms. In terms of general support either now or in the next 5 years, 25% of all households required help with repair and maintenance of their home, 17.1% with gardening and 12.4% with cleaning the home.

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1. Introduction

Background and objectives 1.1 arc4 Limited was commissioned in August 2011 to carry out a comprehensive Strategic Housing Market Assessment (SHMA) for Tees Valley, focusing on the four unitary local authorities of Hartlepool, Middlesbrough, Redcar and Cleveland and Stockton-on-Tees. The fifth Tees Valley authority, Darlington is not participating in the SHMA. 1.2 This research conforms to the Department of Communities and Local Government (CLG) Strategic Housing Market Assessment Guidance and provides a robust and defensible evidence base for future policy development. The research focuses on four core areas: a review of housing markets; an assessment of housing need and affordable requirements; a review of general market requirements; and provides policy recommendations.

Definitions 1.3 A series of terms are used in work of this nature. To avoid ambiguities, these terms are clearly defined as follows: Housing demand is the quantity of housing that households are willing and able to buy or rent. Housing need is the quantity of housing required for households who are unable to access suitable housing without financial assistance. Housing markets are geographical areas defined by household demand and preferences for housing. They reflect the key functional linkages between places where people live and work. Housing requirement is the combination of both housing need and housing demand. 1.4 Definitions relating to affordable housing have been revised in the National Planning Policy Framework (March 2012): Affordable housing: Social rented, affordable rented and intermediate housing, provided to eligible households whose needs are not met by the market. Eligibility is determined with regard to local incomes and local house prices. Affordable housing should include provisions to remain at an affordable price for future eligible households or for the subsidy to be recycled for alternative affordable housing provision. Social rented housing is owned by local authorities and private registered providers(as defined in section 80 of the Housing and Regeneration Act 2008), for which guideline target rents are determined through the national rent regime. It may also be owned by other persons and provided under equivalent rental arrangements to the above, as agreed with the local authority or with the Homes and Communities Agency. arc4 11 Tees Valley 2012 Strategic Housing Market Assessment Final Report

Affordable rented housing is let by local authorities or private registered providers of social housing to households who are eligible for social rented housing. Affordable Rent is subject to rent controls that require a rent of no more than 80% of the local market rent (including service charges, where applicable). Intermediate housing is homes for sale and rent provided at a cost above social rent, but below market levels subject to the criteria in the Affordable Housing definition above. These can include shared equity (shared ownership and equity loans), other low cost homes for sale and intermediate rent, but not affordable rented housing. Homes that do not meet the above definition of affordable housing, such as “low cost market” housing, may not be considered as affordable housing for planning

SHMA Guidance 1.5 In August 2007, the CLG published Strategic Housing Market Assessments: Practice Guidance Version 2. This is the frame of reference for this report. The guidance brings together and builds upon the key elements of existing guidance on housing market and housing needs assessments and replaces the following Government guidance:  Local Housing Needs Assessment: A Guide to Good Practice (DETR, 2000);  Housing Market Assessment Manual (ODPM, 2004). 1.6 The CLG states that the guidance should be read in conjunction with the ‘Identifying Sub-Regional Housing Market Areas Advice Note’ (CLG, 2007). 1.7 Strategic Housing Market Assessments (SHMAs) are particularly valuable in assisting policy development, decision making and resource allocation, in particular by:  Thinking regionally and long-term about housing need and demand;  Providing robust evidence to inform policy debate, particularly around the provision of both market and affordable housing, including type, size and tenure mix;  Understanding the drivers and trajectories of housing markets. 1.8 SHMAs are considered robust and credible if, as a minimum, they provide all of the core outputs and meet the requirements of the process criteria presented in the SHMA Guidance. Table 1.1 summarises the core outputs which are required through the SHMA guidance. Table 1.2 presents the process checklist which needs to be adhered to in SHMA research. Appendix G comments on how each aspect of the process checklist has been adhered to in this research.

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Table 1.1 Strategic Housing Market Assessment core outputs

Strategic Housing Market Assessment core outputs

1 Estimate of current dwellings in terms of size, type, condition, tenure.

2 Analysis of past and current housing market trends, including balance between supply and demand in different housing sectors and price/affordability. Description of key drivers underpinning the housing market.

3 Estimate of total future number of households, broken down by age and type where possible.

4 Estimate of current number of households in housing need.

5 Estimate of future households that will require affordable housing.

6 Estimate of future households requiring market housing.

7 Estimate of the size of affordable housing required.

8 Estimate of household groups who have particular housing requirements including: families, older people, key workers, black and minority ethnic groups, disabled people, young people, Gypsies and Travellers.

Table 1.2 Strategic Housing Market Assessment process checklist

Strategic Housing Market Assessment process checklist

1 Approach to identifying housing market area(s) is consistent with other approaches to identifying housing market areas within the region.

2 Housing market conditions are assessed within the context of the housing market area.

3 Involves key stakeholders, including house builders.

4 Contains a full technical justification of the methods employed, with any limitations noted.

5 Assumptions, judgements and findings are fully justified and presented in an open and transparent manner.

6 Uses and reports upon effective quality control mechanisms.

7 Explains how the assessment findings have been monitored and updated (where appropriate) since it was originally undertaken.

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NPPF requirements 1.9 Local planning policies need to be grounded in robust and transparent evidence and key components of the evidence base include: a Strategic Housing Market Assessment and a Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment. The SHMA should assess identify the scale and mix of housing and the range of tenures the local population is likely to need over the Local Plan period which:  Meets household and population projections, taking account of migration and demographic change;  Addresses the need for all types of housing, including affordable housing and the needs of different groups in the community (such as families with children, older people, people with disabilities, service families and people wishing to build their own homes); and  Caters for housing demand and the scale of housing supply necessary to meet this demand. 1.10 This report provides the first key piece of evidence to underpin planning policy, namely a SHMA which delivers the core outputs required through CLG SHMA guidance. Specifically, this research provides:  Evidence for local authorities to help them plan for a mix of housing based on current and future demographic trends, market trends and the needs of different groups in the community (such as families with children, older people, people with disabilities, service families and people wishing to build their own homes);  Identify the size, type, tenure and range of housing that is required in particular locations, reflecting local demand; and  Identified affordable housing requirements.

Geography 1.11 As Darlington is not involved in the SHMA, most information presented relates to the four local authorities of Hartlepool, Middlesbrough, Redcar and Cleveland and Stockton-on-Tees. To avoid ambiguity this grouping of local authorities is referenced as ‘TV4’ and the grouping plus Darlington as ‘TV5’ 1.12 Map 1.1 presents the Geography of Tees Valley (TV4 authorities).

Research methodology 1.13 The Tees Valley SHMA has been overseen by a Housing Market Partnership comprising Council housing and planning officers. There has been engagement with a range of stakeholders throughout the research process including arc4 14 Tees Valley 2012 Strategic Housing Market Assessment Final Report

developers/builders, Housing Association representatives, Estate Agents and Private Lettings Agents. 1.14 To deliver the SHMA, a multi-method approach was adopted, which comprised:  A sample survey of households across the TV4 area. A total of 55,376 households were contacted and 8,704 questionnaires were returned and used in data analysis. This represents a 15.7% response rate overall and total number of questionnaires returned was well in excess of the 1,500 for each local authority specified in Government guidance;  Interviews with key stakeholders including Local Housing and Planning Authority representatives, Registered Social Landlords (RSLs), Estate Agents, Lettings Agents, Developers, Supporting People representatives;  A review of relevant secondary data including the 2001 census, house price trends, CORE lettings data and CLG Statistics. 1.15 Further information on the research methodology is presented at Appendix A.

Presentation of data 1.16 Data presented in this report is based on the 2011 household survey carried out as part of the Strategic Housing Market Assessment unless otherwise stated. 1.17 It is important to note that survey responses have been weighted to correct for response bias and then grossed up to reflect the total number of households and this process is explained in Appendix A. The 8,704 responses are therefore weighted and grossed up to 235,487 occupied dwellings. All survey information presented in this report is for weighted and grossed responses which are rounded up to the nearest 50 where appropriate.

arc4 15 Tees Valley 2012 Strategic Housing Market Assessment Final Report Map 1.1 Tees Valley sub-region geography

Report structure 1.18 The Tees Valley 2012 SHMA report is structured as follows:  Chapter 2 reviews the national and regional policy context within which the research needs to be positioned;  Chapter 3 considers the Tees Valley (TV4) housing market context, in particular linkages with County Durham and North Yorkshire. This is achieved by reviewing migration and travel to work patterns and house price trends;  Chapter 4 presents SHMA core outputs and summarises more detailed information presented in technical appendices accompanying this report;  Chapter 5 reviews general market demand; and  Chapter 6 concludes the report with a view on the current and future housing market and strategic issues. 1.19 The final report will include a substantial technical appendix, which provides detailed material that underpins the core outputs of the SHMA. The technical appendix presents material will include:  General methodology (Appendix A);  The current housing market (Appendix B);  The future housing market (Appendix C);  Housing need (Appendix D);  Housing requirements of specific household groups (Appendix E);  Monitoring and updating (Appendix F);  Statement of conformity to SHMA guidance (Appendix G); and  Affordable housing policy considerations (Appendix H).

2. Policy and strategic review

Introduction

2.1 Since May 2010 the coalition Government has embarked upon a radical and sustained programme of reform and change of both housing and planning. Set within the context of national austerity measures outlined in the Budget and Comprehensive Spending Review, at a time of significant reductions in public sector spending, these reforms champion localism and decentralisation. 2.2 Removal of the regional tier of government and its related strategies3, structures and funding mechanisms, has created a policy vacuum which local strategists and planners need to respond to within the context of the Government’s planning and social housing reform agenda. With an ambitious programme of policy reform well underway, this is a time of significant change for local strategic housing and planning, both in terms of policy and practice. This section of the report briefly summarises some of the key changes underway within the national and regional/sub-regional policy contexts, upon which this research has a bearing.

National policy 2.3 The Department for Communities and Local Government has outlined what the Government wants to achieve in terms of housing as:  Increase the number of houses available to buy and rent, including affordable housing;  Improve the flexibility of social housing (increasing mobility and choice) and promote homeownership;  Protect the vulnerable and disadvantaged by tackling homelessness and support people to stay in their homes; and  Make sure that homes are of high quality and sustainable. 2.4 What follows is a brief summary of some of the key elements of the Government’s national policy agenda, including:  Comprehensive Spending Review headlines;  The Local Growth White Paper;  The Welfare Reform Bill and housing benefit reform;  Social housing reform;  Reform of council housing finance;

3 Regional Spatial Strategies have not yet formally been revoked but this is the Government’s intention arc4 18 Tees Valley 2012 Strategic Housing Market Assessment Final Report

 The new Affordable Rent model;  The National Planning Policy Framework;  The Localism Act; and  The National Housing Strategy.

Comprehensive Spending Review 2.5 Investment plans for the period April 2011 to March 2015 were outlined in the Comprehensive Spending Review of 20th October 2010. A summary of housing investment is presented in Table 2.1. 2.6 Investment in new affordable housing is to be met through capital investment (of up to £2.5bn) with the balance raised through new Affordable Rent tenancies offered to new social rented tenants at 80% of market rents. 2.7 Where this combination of higher rent and lower grant is insufficient to make new schemes viable, Registered Providers (RPs) will be expected to convert existing social rent tenancies to affordable rent (or intermediate tenure for sale) when properties are vacated to cross-subsidise new provision.

Table 2.1 Summary of housing investment April 2011 to March 2015

Element 2011-15 Purpose Investment Total investment in new £4.5bn Deliver 150,000 new affordable homes affordable housing Empty homes £100m Bringing empty homes back to use Mortgage rescue £200m Protecting vulnerable homeowners New Homes Bonus £900m Encourage communities to accept new housing Regional Growth Fund £1.4bn Capital funding – supports economic growth especially where areas are currently dependent on the public sector Decent Homes £2bn Halve the backlog of non-decent council housing Homelessness Grant £400m To support homelessness prevention initiatives and reduce homelessness presentations Supporting People £6.5bn To help vulnerable people live independently Disabled Facilities Grants £725m Help towards the cost of adapting homes to enable residents to continue to live there Source: Chartered Institute of Housing Briefing Paper on Comprehensive Spending Review

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Local Growth White Paper 2.8 The Local Growth White Paper sets out a new approach to local economic growth and proposes new ways of achieving it; it’s about how to make locally led, owned and managed economic growth happen and housing needs should be seen within this context. 2.9 Regional Development Agencies have been replaced with Local Enterprise Partnerships (LEPs), and a Regional Growth Fund of £1.4bn has been introduced to create jobs and growth in places currently heavily dependent on the public sector (this could support activities such as housing growth and market renewal). 2.10 The Paper refers to delivering ‘a fairer and more balanced economy’ that is ‘evenly balanced across the Country and between industries’, with the Government making ‘strategic investments where there is a market failure and where it makes sense for it to do so, prioritising public spending to ensure that investments have a long-term impact on growth, such as tackling congestion and increasing our housing supply.’ 2.11 The role of councils in supporting growth is specified, with the need to support growth through a responsive supply of land, use of land assets to lever in private investment, and the need to support local people and businesses, including regeneration. The Paper also makes reference to councils leading efforts to support and improve the health and well being of their local populations. 2.12 The role of LEPs is not prescribed but ‘envisaged’, and includes them taking on the role of strategic housing delivery, including ‘pooling and aligning funding streams to allow this’. It is envisaged that LEPs will be chaired by a private sector partner/agency, that they will have to fund their day-to-day running costs, and that they can submit bids to the Regional Growth Fund. 2.13 In terms of ‘increasing confidence to invest’, the agenda centres on reform of the planning system, and incentivising councils to deliver sustainable economic development. 2.14 Planning in its current form is seen as a barrier to development, and the Paper identifies the following:  There is a need for a new presumption in favour of development, which will apply on all planning applications;  Empowering communities and giving them the opportunity to develop Neighbourhood Plans, which will need to ‘respect the national presumption in favour of development, as well as other strategic priorities such as … meeting housing need’;  Local communities are to have new right to build powers to deliver new small scale development without the need for a planning application;  Councils still need to produce Local Development Plans but procedures need to be simplified and streamlined;  Where communities choose not to have a Neighbourhood Plan then the local development plan should be used to guide development in the area; arc4 20 Tees Valley 2012 Strategic Housing Market Assessment Final Report

 Reforms to planning system will make it light touch, fast and responsive – all national policy and guidance is to be streamlined in the National Planning Policy Framework to go before Parliament;  Planning costs are to be reduced;  The Localism Bill is to put a statutory duty on local authorities, public bodies and private bodies involved in plan making to co-operate;  Developers are to carry out pre-application consultations with communities; and  LEPs are free to work with local planning authorities to develop strategic planning frameworks to address economic development and infrastructure issues. 2.15 Local authority initiatives to support growth include:  The New Homes Bonus, which is seen as the cornerstone for incentivising housing growth. The scheme commenced in April 2011 and is to be a ‘permanent feature of local government finance system’;  A Business Increase Bonus to reward local authorities where business rates grow above a predetermined threshold; and  Tax increment finance to give authorities new borrowing powers to enable them to generate finance from future tax revenues.

The Welfare Reform Bill and housing benefit reform 2.16 The Welfare Reform Bill introduces Universal Credit as well as changes to housing benefit and other welfare benefits. The Bill also introduces a new ‘personal independence payment’ to replace the existing disability living allowance. 2.17 In addition, the Bill gives the Government powers to implement housing benefit reforms outlined in the June 2010 Budget and the October 2010 Comprehensive Spending Review, these include:  Introducing a size criteria to the calculation of housing benefit for social sector tenants;  Up-rating future Local Housing Allowance rates in line with Consumer Price Index rather than actual rents (from April 2013); and  Introducing household benefit caps of £500 per week for couples and £350 per week for single claimants. 2.18 Changes already introduced to housing benefit following the June 2010 Budget include:  Capping the maximum Local Housing Allowance payable for each property size and applying a four-bed limit. This mainly affects households living in London (from April 2011);  Calculating Local Housing Allowance rates using the 30th percentile of market rents rather than the 50th percentile (from October 2011); arc4 21 Tees Valley 2012 Strategic Housing Market Assessment Final Report

 Limiting housing benefit for working age tenants so that it only covers the size of property they are judged to need (from April 2013);  Increasing deductions for non-dependents (no longer frozen at £7.40 per week for non-earners and linked to prices since April 2011);  Time limiting full housing benefit and Local Housing Allowance payable to people on Job Seekers’ Allowance so that after 12 months housing benefit is reduced by 10% (from April 2013);  Increasing discretionary housing payments (from October 2010); and  Resourcing an additional bedroom for carers (from April 2011). 2.19 Additionally the age at which the single room rate is applied increased from 25 to 35 from January 2012. This increases the age that single people can qualify for housing benefit for a self-contained property.

Social Housing reform 2.20 The Government set out its key objectives for social housing reform, and its proposals to achieve them, in a consultation paper Local Decisions: a fairer future for social housing. The five key objectives of social housing reform are:  Localism, fairness and focusing social housing on those most in need in a way that enables them to use it as a springboard to opportunity;  That social housing is flexible and available to more people and to those that genuinely need it;  To make the best use of the four million social rented homes;  To increase the freedoms available to all social landlords to determine the type of tenancy they grant to new tenants; and  To protect the rights of existing tenants.

2.21 Proposals to achieve these objectives include:  The introduction of a new, more flexible, local authority affordable rent tenancy with a minimum fixed term of five years (this will be in addition to secure and introductory tenancies);  Investment of £100m to bring empty properties in to use as affordable housing;  Reforming the social housing allocations system by giving Local Authorities the powers to manage their housing waiting lists;  Introduction of a nationwide social home swap programme for social tenants;  Enabling local authorities to fully discharge a homelessness duty to secure accommodation by arranging an offer of suitable accommodation in the private rented sector without requiring the applicant’s agreement;  Introducing reforms to tackle overcrowding; and  Replacing the Housing Revenue Account subsidy system with transparent self-financing arrangements. arc4 22 Tees Valley 2012 Strategic Housing Market Assessment Final Report

Reform of council housing finance 2.22 The Government’s detailed plans for reforming council housing finance were published in January 2011 (Implementing Self-Financing for Council Housing). The key features of the proposals include:  Replacing the current Housing Revenue Account subsidy system with one in which local authorities retain rents following a one-off, mandatory settlement;  A national debt figure of £28.4m is to be allocated across approximately 160 stock retaining local authorities as at April 2012. This would generate a cash receipt for the Government in the region of £6.5bn;  The continued national pooling of 75% of Right to Buy receipts;  A cap on debt in each authority at the starting level of the settlement;  Assumed national rent convergence by 2016; and  Uplifts in expenditure allowances of approximately 14% including an allocation for aids and adaptations.

The Affordable Rent model 2.23 In February 2011 the Homes and Communities Agency published its Framework for Affordable Rent, and invited providers to bid for funding to develop new homes on Affordable Rent tenancies from April 2012 to March 2015. Under the programme providers had to supplement grant funding by converting vacant social homes into other tenures, therefore generating cross-subsidy, and using Section 106 and public sector land opportunities to deliver affordable housing. Key elements of the programme include:  Homes are developed at 80% of the gross market rent, including service charges;  Providers retain the option to offer lifetime tenancies should they wish to;  At the end of an Affordable Rent tenancy, providers and their tenant may covert to shared ownership should they wish to;  Providers decide the proportion of their re-lets to convert to Affordable Rent to fund new supply; and  Providers converting existing social rented homes are encouraged to reinvest the funds raised in new supply within the same locality (housing market area); however, funding is not ring-fenced to a particular geographical area. 2.24 In July 2011 the Homes and Communities Agency announced the successful bidders for the £1.8bn affordable homes programme. The programme will deliver 80,000 new affordable homes nationally, helping meet the Government’s target of 150,000 new affordable homes between 2011 and 2015. Contracts are still being signed between providers and the Homes and Communities Agency, and a detailed programme is beginning to emerge.

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2.25 The North East, Yorkshire and The Humber operating area was allocated £181,600,184 (10.35% of the programme) to deliver 8,135 homes (10.17% of output achieved); broken down, this equates to 7,286 homes for Affordable Rent and 849 affordable home ownership homes4. 2.26 There are concerns about the capacity of the programme both to fund future developments for supported housing, and deliver homes for larger families.

National Planning Policy Framework 2.27 The National Planning Policy Framework was published on 27th March 2012 and came into effect on the same day, revoking Planning Policy Statement 3 Housing, which had previously formed the basis for housing planning policy. As part of its commitment to economic growth, localism and decentralisation, the Government has used the Framework to streamline all existing national policy documents into one short Policy Framework. 2.28 The Framework stresses the need for councils to work with communities and businesses to seek opportunities for sustainable growth to rebuild the economy; helping to deliver the homes, jobs, and infrastructure needed for a growing population whilst protecting the environment. A presumption in favour of sustainable development means that proposals should be approved promptly unless they compromise the twelve sustainable development principles set out in the Framework. 2.29 The Framework identifies three dimensions to sustainable development: economic, social and environmental. The social role is defined as: ‘supporting strong, vibrant and healthy communities, by providing the supply of housing required to meet the needs of present and future generations….’5 These three dimensions (or roles) are seen as mutually dependent. 2.30 The Framework must be taken into account in the preparation of local and neighbourhood plans, and it is a material consideration in decision making. Up to date local plans are seen as a prerequisite and the following guidance is given: ‘The National Planning Policy Framework does not change the statutory status of the development plan as the starting point for decision making. Proposed development that accords with an up-to-date Local Plan should be approved, and proposed development that conflicts should be refused unless other material considerations indicate otherwise. … The National Planning Policy Framework constitutes guidance for local planning authorities and decision-takers both in drawing up plans and as a material consideration in determining applications.’6 2.31 Robust and comprehensive evidence bases (in particular Strategic Housing Market Assessments and Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessments) are

4 http://www.homesandcommunities.co.uk/news/Homes and Communities Agency-announces- successful-bidders-affordable-homes-funding

5 CLG National Planning Policy Framework March 2012 para 7 6 CLG National Planning Policy Framework March 2012 paras 12 and 13 arc4 24 Tees Valley 2012 Strategic Housing Market Assessment Final Report

seen as essential to ‘delivering a wide choice of high quality homes’; the Framework states that local planning authorities should ‘use their evidence base to ensure that their Local Plan meets the full, objectively assessed needs for market and affordable housing in the housing market area, as far as is consistent with policies set out within the Framework, including identifying key sites which are critical to the delivery of the housing strategy over the plan period.’7 2.32 The need to ‘plan for a mix of housing based on current need and future demographic trends, market trends and the needs of different groups in the community’ is emphasised. The Frameworks also states that local planning authorities should: - ‘identify the size, type, tenure and range of housing that is required in particular locations, reflecting local demand; and - ‘where they have identified that affordable housing is needed set policies for meeting this need on site…’8 2.33 Authorities will need to illustrate the expected rate of housing delivery through a housing trajectory for the plan period and a Housing Implementation Strategy for the full range of housing. 2.34 New definitions of affordable housing are also included at Annex 2 covering social rented housing, affordable rented housing and intermediate housing.

Localism Act 2.35 The Government’s ‘Programme for Government’ set the scene for a radical devolution of power to local authorities and community groups; critical to this is the Localism Act. The Act includes measures to reform:  The planning system;  Social housing; and  The council house finance system. 2.36 The Act provides:  New freedoms and flexibilities for local government;  New rights and posers for individuals;  Reform to make the planning system more democratic and more effective;  Reform to ensure that decisions about housing are taken locally. 2.37 The Act introduces most elements of the Government’s housing reform programme, including changes to homelessness, social housing tenancies

7 CLG National Planning Policy Framework March 2012 para 47

8 CLG National Planning Policy Framework March 2012 para 50

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(introduction of five year minimum tenancy), mobility, regulation, and access to the Ombudsman. The Act also reforms council housing finance. 2.38 In keeping with the Government’s localism ethos, much of the legislation within the Act is permissive, meaning that it is open to interpretation locally in terms of how members, professionals and communities decide to use its powers. Much of the Act is due to come into effect in April 2012.

Laying the Foundations: A Housing Strategy for England 2.39 Last year the Government published its Housing Strategy for England, which sets out its ‘intended direction of travel for housing, its role in the wider economy and its contribution to social mobility. It sets out ideas on the shape of housing provision that the government wants to see, which involve the primacy of home ownership; social housing as welfare; and an increasing role for the private rented sector.’9 2.40 The Strategy presents both existing initiatives and policies (as outlined above) and introduces a series of new interventions and approaches, which are set out under the following headings:  Increasing supply, more homes, stable growth which includes a newbuild indemnity scheme led by the Home Builders Federation and Council for Mortgage Lenders to provide up to 95% loan to value mortgages for newbuild properties in England, backed by a housebuilder indemnity find; and a £400m ‘Get Britain Building investment fund;  Social and affordable housing reform which includes implementing a radical programme of reform to make better use of social housing to support those who need it most; and re-invigorating Right to Buy with the one for one replacement of homes sold;  A thriving private rented sector, through supporting investment in homes to rent, marketing new Built to Rent pilot sites and encouraging local authorities to make full use of powers to tackle dangerous and poorly-maintained homes;  A strategy for empty homes, with a commitment to bring empty homes back into use through awarding the New Homes Bonus to empty properties brought back into use, providing information and practical advice to local authorities and communities and proposing changes to Empty Dwelling Management Orders to tackle the worst long-term empty homes;  Quality of housing experience and support, through supporting the most vulnerable households to prevent and tackle homelessness and providing a better deal for older people, with greater choice and support to live independently; and  Quality, sustainability and design, by encouraging the promotion of imaginative, innovative, locally distinctive, well designed new homes and

9 CIH Summary Laying the Foundations: A Housing Strategy for England November 2011 arc4 26 Tees Valley 2012 Strategic Housing Market Assessment Final Report

neighbourhoods; a commitment to Zero Carbon homes by 2016; reviewing building regulations to further improve energy efficiency and carbon emission standards of new buildings.

Regional and Sub Regional Strategic Context

2.41 The Tees Valley strategic context has undergone significant change over the past eighteen months, reflecting the changes that have been taking place at a national level under the coalition Government. The revocation of the Regional Spatial Strategy, ending of the Housing Market Renewal programme and realignment of housing investment priorities have all had a significant impact across Tees Valley.

Local Enterprise Partnership 2.42 Following the demise of Tees Valley Living consideration of strategic sub- regional housing matters takes place through Tees Valley Unlimited as the LEP for the sub-region. The LEP has recently formed an advisory group known as the Place Group which comprises the Chief Executives of the principal Registered Providers together with the Local Authority Directors of Place. The Group focuses on strategic matters and the relationship between housing, construction and the local economy and identifies future regeneration priorities for the sub- region. Whilst the social aspects of housing provision are acknowledged the group is primarily concerned with the economic aspects of housing development on a strategic basis. Wider matters of local authority housing policy and social housing provision and management within a sub-regional context are processed through regular meetings of the Tees Valley Local Authority Heads of Housing and Housing Service Managers. 2.43 The LEP recognises that housing is a key driver of economic growth in terms of ‘both increasing the offer of the sub-region to entrepreneurs and wealth creators and to reduce outward migration by offering wider choice’ within the housing market. 2.44 The LEP emphasises the key role played by the sub regional Housing Strategy in terms of setting the strategic context for housing investment, and is committed to ‘utilising all the resources of all sectors and stakeholders’ to help address the area’s ‘legacy of poor private housing and help balance housing needs and tenure choice’.

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Housing Strategy 2.45 The 2007 Sub Regional Strategy is still in place, and its objectives remain valid:  Rejuvenating housing stock;  Providing quality and choice;  Improvement and maintenance of existing stock;  Meeting specific community and social needs. 2.46 These objectives are reflected within the local housing strategies, with a direct read across in the case of Middlesbrough and Stockton Councils. Redcar and Cleveland has adopted a new Housing Strategy for 2012-2017 with six new strategic aims, which do reflect the older sub regional strategy objectives; and Hartlepool is developing a Housing Strategy for 2011-2015.

Concluding comments 2.47 The main purpose of this chapter has been to consider the general policy and strategic context within which this research needs to be positioned. A new policy framework for housing and planning is emerging. The Government’s housing priorities have been established and set within the context of local decision making and accountability, reduced capital expenditure on housing, fundamental changes to the benefit system, a changing role for social rented housing, and a need for future housing investment to support economic growth. Economic uncertainty, job security and restricted mortgage lending exacerbate the challenges faced. 2.48 The importance of having robust and up-to-date information to help inform decision making at local authority level is evermore essential. In a challenging economic climate, this SHMA provides the LEP and its local authority partners with an excellent range of material to inform policy debate, contribute to the delivery of the Local Investment Plan, help inform and influence strategic responses, and shape local and sub regional strategic housing priorities to inform future investment plans.

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3. Tees Valley Housing Market Context

Introduction

3.1 Tees Valley is located in the North East of England and comprises five local authorities: Darlington, Hartlepool, Middlesbrough, Stockton-on-Tees and Redcar and Cleveland. The resident population of the TV4 area is 563,300 and TV5 is 663,90010 3.2 This study provides an opportunity to review the housing market dynamics of the TV4 area. Housing market areas are: “defined by household demand and preferences for housing. They reflect the key functional linkages between places where people live and work.” 11 3.3 CLG guidance on assessing market areas suggests three core sources of information:  House prices and rates of change;  Household migration and search behaviour;  Contextual data such as travel to work areas, which reflect the functional relationships between places where people work and live. 3.4 This chapter proceeds with a review of house prices, rates of change and comparisons with sub-regional and national trends. The relative affordability of dwellings and change over time is explored. Household migration and search behaviour is analysed, drawing upon national migration data and the characteristics of moving households is reviewed through household survey information collected as part of this research project. 3.5 The chapter continues with a review of travel to work trends drawing upon 2001 census and household survey evidence. Material in the chapter helps to establish the general housing market context of Tees Valley. This is further explored through Estate Agent interviews.

House prices and trends 3.6 Figure 3.1 shows how house prices across the TV5 area have changed over the period 2000 to 2011.

10 Office for National Statistics Mid Year Population Estimates 11 Identifying sub-regional housing market areas, CLG Advice Note April 2007 arc4 29 Tees Valley 2012 Strategic Housing Market Assessment Final Report Figure 3.1 Median house price trends 2000 to 2011: TV5 area and the North East

160,000

140,000

120,000

100,000

80,000 Darlington Hartlepool 60,000 Middlesbrough 40,000 Median House Median House Price (£) Redcar & Cleveland 20,000 Stockton-on-Tees North East 0 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 11 Year and Quarter

Source: DCLG; Land Registry 3.7 Prices in Darlington have been consistently higher than regional median price trends and have increased from £48,500 in 2000 to £125,000 in 2010, an increase of 157.7%. Prices first peaked at £125,000 in Q3 2007 and after falling reached a new peak of £130,000 in Q2 2010. 3.8 Prices in Hartlepool have tended to lag behind the regional median figure and have increased from £49,000 in Q1 2000 to £106,133 in Q1 2011, an increase of 116.6%. Prices peaked in Q2 2008 at £115,000. 3.9 Prices in Middlesbrough have tended to lag behind the regional median figure and have increased from £44,500 in Q1 2000 to £99,695 in Q1 2011, an increase of 123.8%. Prices peaked in Q4 2009 at £114,000. 3.10 Prices in Redcar and Cleveland have closely reflected regional median price trends and have increased from £46,500 in Q1 2000 to £110,000 in Q1 2011, an increase of 136.6%. Prices peaked in Q3 2007 at £125,000. 3.11 Prices in Stockton on Tees been consistently higher than regional median price trends and have increased from £53,500 in Q1 2000 to £117,500 in Q1 2011, an increase of 119.6%. Prices peaked in Q2 2007 at £137,500. 3.12 During 2010, lower quartile prices across the TV5 area were around £81,000 (Darlington £87,735, Hartlepool £73,000, Middlesbrough £68,000, Redcar and Cleveland £82,500 and Stockton on Tees £95,000). The distribution of lower quartile house prices during 2010 is illustrated in Map 3.1. 3.13 Table 3.1 summarises lower quartile, median and upper quartile prices over the period 2008-2011 based on address-level data. Please note there is a slight variation between CLG published data and data derived from address-level house price information. 3.14 Map 3.1 illustrates the range of lower quartile prices within the TV5 area, highlighting relatively low prices in inner core areas and higher prices on the semi-rural fringes of the area, particular bordering County Durham and North Yorkshire.

Table 3.1 House prices in Tees Valley by Local Authority area

District Percentiles Year 2008 2009 2010 2011* Darlington Lower Quartile (25%) £90,000 £86,000 £86,000 £90,000 Median (50%) £124,950 £123,000 £124,950 £125,000 Upper Quartile (75%) £173,000 £174,995 £175,000 £180,000 Hartlepool Lower Quartile (25%) £76,000 £70,000 £73,000 £74,000 Median (50%) £108,000 £104,950 £109,725 £101,000 Upper Quartile (75%) £146,250 £140,000 £147,775 £140,000 Middlesbrough Lower Quartile (25%) £68,000 £76,000 £68,500 £65,063 Median (50%) £98,596 £110,000 £105,000 £95,000 Upper Quartile (75%) £139,723 £145,000 £145,000 £135,000 Redcar and Cleveland Lower Quartile (25%) £83,000 £83,000 £83,250 £82,000 Median (50%) £115,000 £119,000 £117,000 £112,000 Upper Quartile (75%) £154,950 £151,000 £152,000 £149,000 Stockton-on-Tees Lower Quartile (25%) £98,000 £97,500 £95,000 £81,303 Median (50%) £132,000 £130,000 £128,000 £116,000 Upper Quartile (75%) £174,961 £170,000 £175,000 £157,250 TV5 Lower Quartile (25%) £83,000 £85,000 £82,500 £76,748 Median (50%) £119,950 £120,000 £120,000 £112,000 Upper Quartile (75%) £160,000 £159,950 £160,000 £151,000 *Year to end March 2011 Source: Land Registry Address Level data Jan 2008 to March 2011 Please note there is a slight variation between CLG published data and data derived from address-level data

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Map 3.1 TV5 Lower Quartile house prices in 2010

Source: Land Registry

Relative affordability 3.15 The relative affordability of open market dwellings in TV5 is compared with the other Local Authorities in the North East in Tables 3.2a and b. Table 3.2 presents lower quartile house prices, lower quartile gross income of full-time workers and a ratio of lower quartile incomes to house prices. 3.16 In terms of relative affordability, two of the TV5 authorities have house price to income ratios above the regional average of 4.6 (Stockton and Darlington) and

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three are below (Redcar and Cleveland, Hartlepool and Middlesbrough; with Hartlepool being one of the most affordable districts in the North East.)

Table 3.2a Relative affordability of lower quartile (LQ) prices by Local Authority (residence based)

LQ Gross Annual LQ Income to Lower Quartile Income per Gross House Price District House Price week Income ratio £94,933 £317 £16,505 5.75 £94,792 £337 £17,498 5.42 £89,500 £344 £17,888 5.00 Darlington £82,542 £330 £17,144 4.81 Stockton-on-Tees £85,396 £346 £17,992 4.75 Gateshead £83,042 £344 £17,904 4.64 NORTH EAST £79,667 £333 £17,316 4.60 Redcar and £79,667 £335 Cleveland £17,441 4.57 £77,417 £329 £17,124 4.52 Sunderland £75,000 £326 £16,942 4.43 Middlesbrough £67,958 £314 £16,344 4.16 Hartlepool £74,042 £357 £18,548 3.99 County Durham £67,667 £328 £17,056 3.97 Sources: CLG House Price Statistics Q1-Q3 2011; Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings 2011

3.17 In terms of relative affordability based on median prices, only Darlington has a house price to income ratio above the regional average of 5.1.

Table 3.2b Relative affordability of median prices by Local Authority (residence based)

Median Gross Annual Median Income Income per Gross to House Price District Median House Price week Income ratio Newcastle upon Tyne £131,667 £441 £22,932 5.74 Northumberland £137,483 £474 £24,648 5.58 North Tyneside £132,611 £459 £23,884 5.55 Darlington £119,500 £430 £22,350 5.35 NORTH EAST £119,500 £451 £23,447 5.10 Gateshead £115,998 £457 £23,769 4.88 Redcar and £111,492 £443 Cleveland £23,015 4.84 Sunderland £106,083 £425 £22,074 4.81 Middlesbrough £103,313 £416 £21,627 4.78 Stockton-on-Tees £122,483 £496 £25,776 4.75 South Tyneside £108,511 £452 £23,504 4.62 Hartlepool £105,903 £471 £24,471 4.33 County Durham £98,666 £440 £22,896 4.31 Sources: CLG House Price Statistics Q1-Q3 2011; Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings 2011 arc4 34 Tees Valley 2012 Strategic Housing Market Assessment Final Report

Household migration and search behaviour 3.18 Annual migration data is prepared by the Office of National Statistics (ONS) based on patient re-registrations with the National Health Service (NHS). Although it has limitations, it is the best annual source of internal migration data from within England and Wales (Figure 3.2). Over the period July 2000 to June 2010 (10 years) a total of 113,980 people have moved into the Tees Valley (TV5) particularly from Durham, Sunderland and London. 120,580 have moved out (most noticeably to Leeds, Newcastle upon Tyne, the North West and East Midlands regions and neighbouring ). The result is a net out- flow of 6600 people (around 660 each year).

Figure 3.2 Net flows of population between TV5 and other areas July 2000 to June 2010

Source: ONS Migration Flow Data via NHSCR

Characteristics of moving households

Mobility and migration trends 3.19 Data from the household survey indicated that around 63,700 households had moved home in the preceding 5 years. Of these households 88.8% originated arc4 35 Tees Valley 2012 Strategic Housing Market Assessment Final Report

within Tees Valley and 11.2% originated from outside the Tees Valley as summarised in Table 3.3.

Table 3.3 Summary of household moves in preceding 5 years District % moving from Within TV5 Outside TV5 Total Base Hartlepool 86.2 13.8 100.0 11364 Middlesbrough 90.3 9.7 100.0 14106 Stockton 88.1 11.9 100.0 22318 Redcar and Cleveland 90.2 9.8 100.0 15935 Total TV4 Districts 88.8 11.2 100.0 Base 56569 7154 63723 Source: 2011 household survey

3.20 Tables 3.4A to D present information on the origin of moving households by Local Authority and sub-area and illustrates a series of relationships between areas and the relative impact of in-migration. The CLG suggests that a housing market is self-contained if at least 70% of households moving originate from the same area. On this basis, each of the Local Authority Districts can be described as a self-contained housing market area on the basis of migration. Only one sub- area, Billingham in Stockton-on-Tees, can be described as self-contained, with 73.7% of moving households originating from the same sub-area. 3.21 In two sub-areas, more than 20% of households originated from outside the TV5 area (Stockton Rural 31.3% and Loftus 22.0%). In-migrants accounted for between 15% and 20% of moving households in Inner Hartlepool (19.2%), Saltburn (18.7%), and (18.5%).

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Table 3.4A Moving households: origin and destination: Hartlepool Destination (% of households originating from stated Origin origin) Inner Outer Town Hartlepool Suburbs Suburbs Rural Centre Total Inner Suburbs 51.9 22.0 15.3 38.0 37.7 Outer Suburbs 9.8 47.2 16.4 9.8 22.3 Rural 0.0 1.5 23.9 0.0 1.3 Town Centre 17.3 17.9 7.5 33.2 20.8 Total Within District 78.9 88.6 63.0 81.0 82.1 Middlesbrough 0.0 0.0 2.4 0.0 0.1 Redcar & Cleveland 0.0 0.0 2.4 1.5 0.4 Stockton-on-Tees 1.9 3.0 23.6 2.9 3.2 Darlington 0.0 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.5 Total Within Tees Valley 80.8 93.1 91.4 85.4 86.2 Elsewhere Co Durham 3.7 2.1 2.9 4.5 3.3 Elsewhere NE 0.4 0.0 0.4 2.9 0.9 Hambleton 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 /Scarborough 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Elsewhere North Yorkshire 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Elsewhere Yorkshire and the Humber 3.8 1.5 0.0 2.9 2.7 Elsewhere UK 9.4 1.8 5.0 2.9 5.3 Outside UK 1.9 1.5 0.0 1.4 1.6 Total from outside 19.2 6.9 8.4 14.6 13.8 Total All Moving H'holds 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Base 4,652 3,730 373 2,609 11,364

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Table 3.4B Moving households: origin and destination: Middlesbrough Origin Destination (% of households originating from stated origin) Greater Middlesbrough East Hemlington North South West Total East 56.1 6.2 4.6 3.8 4.2 15.9 Greater Hemlington 2.5 40.5 2.0 5.2 3.4 5.9 North 17.9 11.5 63.8 1.9 20.0 30.1 South 0.7 5.8 6.6 37.6 2.1 8.1 West 7.8 8.1 10.4 19.8 43.2 19.4 Total Within District 85.0 72.1 87.4 68.3 72.9 79.4 Hartlepool 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 Redcar & Cleveland 6.7 8.1 0.6 13.7 6.6 5.8 Stockton-on-Tees 0.0 10.7 0.0 3.3 9.0 3.6 Darlington 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9 2.6 0.9 Total Within Tees Valley 91.8 90.9 89.9 87.2 91.0 90.3 Elsewhere Co Durham 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 Elsewhere NE 0.0 0.3 0.0 2.3 4.2 1.4 Hambleton 0.0 2.1 2.0 1.9 0.0 1.0 Ryedale/Scarborough 0.0 0.4 0.0 1.9 0.0 0.3 Elsewhere North Yorkshire 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Elsewhere Yorkshire and the Humber 5.0 0.0 2.0 2.6 0.0 2.1 Elsewhere UK 0.0 4.6 6.0 4.2 4.7 4.0 Outside UK 0.7 1.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 Total Outside Tees Valley 8.2 9.1 10.1 12.8 8.9 9.7 Total All Moving H'holds 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Base 3,116 1,099 4,389 1,851 3,651 14,106

Table 3.4C Moving households: origin and destination: Redcar and Cleveland

Origin Destination (% of households originating from stated origin) Greater Redcar & Greater Eston Guis Cleveland Brotton Eston North South borough Loftus Redcar Saltburn Skelton Total Brotton 41.7 0.9 0.0 1.3 7.8 2.6 3.7 7.8 4.8 Greater Eston North 1.6 47.3 30.6 0.0 1.9 0.0 0.3 6.0 11.1 Greater Eston South 1.7 14.9 30.2 2.1 0.7 0.0 2.7 1.7 5.3 Guisborough 5.3 0.0 0.0 54.0 1.9 3.1 8.5 8.4 10.2 Loftus 5.3 0.0 0.0 3.7 50.4 2.6 3.0 2.6 4.3 Redcar 4.4 14.9 1.8 3.8 1.8 66.1 9.2 13.4 30.0 Saltburn 2.1 0.0 0.0 3.7 1.9 2.5 37.0 4.7 4.1 Skelton 12.7 0.0 0.0 5.0 1.9 7.5 9.0 32.9 8.1 Total Within District 74.8 78.0 62.6 73.5 68.5 84.3 73.5 77.4 77.9 Hartlepool 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 Middlesbrough 3.3 7.0 35.6 6.4 1.9 4.5 4.4 5.1 7.1 Stockton-on-Tees 1.7 14.1 0.0 3.3 7.5 2.8 2.7 2.3 4.8 Darlington 1.7 0.0 0.0 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.7 0.5 Total Within Tees Valley 81.5 99.1 98.2 84.6 78.0 91.6 81.3 86.4 90.2 Elsewhere Co Durham 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.6 1.9 0.0 3.0 0.0 0.6 Elsewhere NE 3.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9 0.4 1.3 0.0 0.5 Hambleton 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.4 Ryedale/Scarborough 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.6 1.9 0.0 2.0 1.0 0.9 Elsewhere North Yorkshire 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 3.8 0.4 Elsewhere Yorkshire and the Humber 3.8 0.0 0.0 1.3 2.3 1.6 3.0 1.6 1.4 Elsewhere UK 10.5 0.9 1.8 4.1 13.9 5.9 7.4 3.2 4.9 Outside UK 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.3 0.0 0.0 1.7 2.0 0.5 Total Outside Tees Valley 18.6 0.9 1.8 15.4 22.1 7.9 18.6 13.6 9.6 Total All Moving H'holds 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Base 825 2,796 1,019 2,175 667 5,930 887 1,636 15,935

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Table 3.4D Moving households: origin and destination: Stockton on Tees

Origin Destination (% of households originating from stated origin)

Stockto Yarm/Pre Stockton Ingleby Rural n Inner Stockton ston/Eagl on Tees Billingham Barwick Areas Core Outer Core Thornaby escliffe Total Billingham 73.7 3.9 10.1 0.0 3.5 1.9 3.2 12.9 0.0 34.9 3.1 1.1 0.3 3.6 1.0 5.1 Rural Areas 0.0 5.8 12.4 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.6 1.8 Stockton Inner Core 4.4 1.9 5.2 46.8 13.0 3.3 5.9 13.1 Stockton Outer Core 2.6 5.2 8.6 15.0 57.5 8.1 6.3 22.5 Thornaby 0.0 2.9 0.0 3.0 0.5 60.5 2.4 9.8 Yarm/Preston/Eaglescliffe 0.0 11.0 15.7 4.8 9.0 5.9 51.9 11.9 Total Within District 80.8 65.7 55.2 71.9 84.3 83.3 73.3 77.1 Hartlepool 2.3 0.0 1.1 0.0 1.5 0.0 2.1 1.0 Middlesbrough 5.2 10.9 5.7 8.7 1.5 10.0 2.1 5.7 Redcar & Cleveland 4.4 4.3 4.6 8.2 0.0 3.0 4.5 3.5 Darlington 0.0 0.0 2.4 1.4 1.5 0.0 1.0 0.9 Total Within Tees Valley 92.7 80.9 68.9 90.2 88.8 96.3 82.9 88.1 Elsewhere Co Durham 0.5 3.1 8.8 0.0 1.5 0.0 0.2 1.3 Elsewhere NE 2.1 2.9 5.5 1.1 1.8 0.0 1.1 1.7 Hambleton 0.5 2.9 1.7 1.1 3.0 1.8 3.6 2.2 Ryedale/Scarborough 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 0.1 Elsewhere North Yorkshire 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 0.2 Elsewhere Yorkshire and the Humber 0.0 1.0 1.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 0.3 Elsewhere UK 4.3 8.2 12.0 5.3 4.5 1.9 6.6 5.2 Outside UK 0.0 0.0 1.5 2.3 0.3 0.0 2.1 0.7 Total Outside Tees Valley 7.4 19.1 31.1 9.8 11.2 3.7 17.0 11.9 Total All Moving H'holds 100.0 100.0 100.1 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Base 3,112 2,634 1,017 3,376 6,600 3,169 2,410 22,318 Note: Column% shows the proportion of households originating from a particular location Source: 2011 Household Survey

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Characteristics of in-migrant households 3.25 The household survey identified around 7,150 households who had moved into a TV4 district from outside Tees Valley (TV5) in the preceding five years. Information relating to in-migrant households includes:  Most moved into a house, particularly semi-detached (29.1%), terraced (28.5%) and detached (21.7%); and a further 16.1% moved into a flat/apartment and 4.5% to a bungalow. In Hartlepool, 43.3% moved into a terraced house and in Stockton, 30.6% moved into a detached and 32.4% into a semi-detached house;  48.9% moved into a three bedroom property, 21.2% into a property with more than three bedrooms and 29.9% into smaller properties with one (8.7%) or two bedrooms (21.2%). In Hartlepool. 54% moved into a three bedroom property and in Redcar and Cleveland 30.1% moved into a property with more than three bedrooms ;  53.8% moved into owner occupied properties; 35.8% into private renting and 10.4% moved into affordable (social rented/intermediate tenure) dwellings. In Middlesbrough,, 44.1% moved into private renting and in Hartlepool 34.6% moved into private renting;  Overall, 37.3% of in-migrant households moved to Stockton-on-Tees, 22% to Hartlepool, 21.6% to Redcar and Cleveland and 19.2% to Middlesbrough. 12.5% moved to the Inner Suburbs of Hartlepool, 10.4% to the Stockton Outer Core sub-areas, 7% to Ingleby Barwick (Stockton) and 7% to Redcar;  Couples with children accounted for 27.4% of in-migrant households, singles (under 60) 22.8%, couples with children 17.3%, lone parent families 12.8%, older singles and couples 9.6% and 10.1% were other household types;  41.4% of in-migrant household reference people (heads of household) were aged 16-39, a further 49.6% were aged 40-59 and 32.7% were aged 16-39 and 9% were aged 60 or over;  The majority of heads of household of in-migrant households were in employment (64.4% of which 42.2% were full-time, 17.1% part-time and 5.1% self-employed), with a further 12.1% looking after the home/carer, 10% wholly retired from work, 8.7% permanently sick/disabled 3.7% unemployed and available for work and 1.1% in full-time education;  42.3% of households had a weekly income of at least £500 (with 15.4% receiving at least £950 each week); a further 23.1% received between £300 and £500 each week and 34.8% received less than £300 each week;  84.1% of in-migrant heads of household worked in the TV4 area (21.1% in Stockton on Tees, 25.8% in Middlesbrough, 13.2% in Hartlepool and 13% in Redcar and Cleveland. A further 3.5% worked in Darlington, 3.6% in North Yorkshire, 2.1% in County Durham, 6.6% elsewhere in the UK and 0.3% outside the UK.;  The two main reasons for moving were to move to be closer to friends/family for social reasons or support (26%) and to closer to work/new job (25.5%). Other reasons included: divorce/separation (10.9%) to move closer to arc4 40 Tees Valley 2012 Strategic Housing Assessment Final Report

family/friends to give/receive support (11.6%) and wanting a larger property (6%). 3.26 In summary, 11.9% of households moving in the past five years originated from outside the TV5 area of whom 3% were from elsewhere in the North East, 2.8% from Yorkshire and the Humber, 5.2% from elsewhere in the UK and 0.7% from outside the UK. Most moved into the private sector, with around one-third moving into private renting and a majority (51.5%) moved either for work or to be closer to friends/family. The majority of in-migrant households were singles and couples with children, headed by someone in employment and aged under 60. Notably, most household reference people in employment worked within Tees Valley and 42.3% had an income of at least £500 each week.

Residential mobility within Tees Valley 3.27 The household survey identified that the vast majority (88.1%) of households moving within the preceding 5 years had moved within the TV4 area (around 56,500 households). 3.28 Households moving within the TV4 area were doing so for a variety of reasons. Those most frequently reported moving to a larger / better property (15.8%), wanted own home/live independently (10.3%) and to move to a better neighbourhood (8.4%).. 3.29 Table 3.5 reviews the tenure choices of households moving within the TV4 area. Owner-occupiers and social renters are most likely to remain in the same tenure. 28.8% of private renters moved into owner occupation and a further 25.5% into social renting. Respondents who had previously lived with family and friends (i.e. newly forming households) tended to moved into all major tenures: owner occupation (47.4%), private renting (28.1% and social renting (24.3%).

Table 3.5 Residential mobility – movement between different tenures Previous Tenure (column %) Current Tenure Owner Social Private Inter Living with occupier Rented Rented mediate friends/family Other Total Base Owner Occupied 76.1 4.9 28.8 100.0 47.4 9.0 43.6 24643 Social Rented 12.4 77.7 25.5 0.0 24.3 51.8 32.0 18069 Private Rented 10.9 12.5 43.4 0.0 28.1 39.2 22.6 12740 Intermediate 0.6 4.9 2.3 0.0 0.2 0.0 1.8 1031 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Base (moving households) 19755 11927 13478 73 10572 678 56483 Source: 2011 Household Survey

3.30 Table 3.6 considers the profile of dwellings being moved into by households moving within the TV4 area. Households are moving into a variety of dwelling types and sizes, most notably to: two (33.6%) and three (36.7%) bedroom dwellings; semi-detached houses (28.5%), terraced houses (25.5%) and flats/apartments (20.3%). arc4 41 Tees Valley 2012 Strategic Housing Assessment Final Report

Table 3.6 Residential mobility – profile of properties moved into by type and size No. Property Type (Table %) bedrooms Detached Semi- Terraced Bungalow Flat/ Caravan/Park Total Base house detached house Maisonette Home/Other house One 0.0 0.1 0.2 2.9 11.8 0.1 15.2 8,386 Two 1.2 7.5 10.1 6.6 7.9 0.3 33.6 18,570 Three 4.0 17.7 12.7 1.5 0.4 0.3 36.7 20,261 Four 6.5 2.4 2.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 11.0 6,091 Five or more 2.2 0.7 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.4 1,900 Total 14.0 28.5 25.5 11.1 20.3 0.7 100.0 55,208 Base 7,709 15,711 14,094 6,117 11,194 383 55,208 Source: 2011 Household Survey

Households planning to move 3.31 Around 47,300 households plan to move in the next five years (Hartlepool 10,100, Middlesbrough 11,360, Redcar and Cleveland 11,200, Stockton-on-Tees 15,640) Table 3.7 summarises the moving intentions of households based on the first preference they stated and further detail is provided in Table 3.8. Overall, 83.6% of households intend on remaining in the TV4 area and 16.4% intend to move out although Table 3.7 illustrates the proportion of residents intending to remain in the same Local Authority varies between 57.8% (Middlesbrough) and 81.5% (Stockton-on-Tees).

Table 3.7 First choice destination of households planning to move in next five years Destination Current District (%) Redcar Stockton- Hartlepool Middlesbrough and Total on-Tees Cleveland Remain within district 78.1 57.8 76.2 81.5 Move elsewhere in TV4 8.9 20.1 6.2 4.7 83.6 Move outside TV4 13.0 22.1 17.6 13.8 16.4 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

3.32 Of all households planning to move out, 0.4% were planning to move to Darlington, 1.7% to County Durham, 7% to North Yorkshire (of which 1.7% to Hambleton), 6.5% to elsewhere in the UK and 0.9% outside the UK. 3.33 The main reason why households plan to move out of TV4 was to move to a better neighbourhood/a more pleasant area (24.9%). Other reasons include wanting a larger property or one that is better in some way (14.1%), to be closer to work/new job (11.6%), needing a smaller property (12.4%) and marriage/to live together (7.3%). arc4 42 Tees Valley 2012 Strategic Housing Assessment Final Report

Table 3.8 Location preferences (first choice) of households intending to move in the next five years by current place of residence Current District Location Preferences Redcar and Stockton- Hartlepool Middlesbrough Total Cleveland on-Tees Within TV4 Stockton-on-Tees Newtown, Oxbridge, Parkfield, Stockton Town Centre, Victoria 1.2 0.8 6.7 2.7 Hartburn, Fairfield, Norton, Roseworth, Hardwick, Elm Tree 2.4 1.9 0.8 27.1 10.1 Carlton, Grindon, Redmarshall, Stillington, Wynyard 2.1 1.4 1.4 5.1 2.8 Maltby 0.2 0.2 2.0 0.7 Yarm, Eaglescliffe, Preston 1.2 5.2 1.2 13.4 6.2 Ingleby Barwick 1.4 0.9 8.9 3.5 Thornaby 7.4 2.5

Billingham, Wolviston, Port Clarence, Cowpen Bewley 1.3 0.3 10.9 3.9 Sub-total 8.1 11.1 4.6 81.5 32.3 Redcar and Cleveland Brotton, , 3.3 0.7 Eston, Normanby, , Nunthorpe, South Bank, Grangetown 3.6 17.9 1.1 5.1 Redcar, , Marske 3.1 24.8 1.2 6.5 Guisborough, Easington, Loftus, 1.2 12.7 0.0 3.0 , , and Skelton 5.6 1.2 Saltburn 0.3 12.0 0.0 2.7 Sub-total 0.0 8.2 76.2 2.4 19.1 Middlesbrough Acklam, Brookfield, Kader, Ladgate, Linthorpe, Park 0.4 28.4 0.0 1.2 7.3 Ayresome, Beechwood, Clairville, Gresham, Middlehaven, University 5.5 1.3 Beckfield, North Ormesby, Pallister, Thorntree, Park End 4.1 0.3 1.1 Coulby Newham, Marton, Marton West, Nunthorpe 0.4 18.0 0.5 0.4 4.6 Hemlington, Stainton, Thornton 1.7 0.8 0.1 0.6 Sub-total 0.8 57.8 1.6 1.6 14.9 Hartlepool Fens, Hart, Park, Seaton, Marina, Victoria Harbour 37.6 8.1 Brus, Longhill, Oakesway, Owton, Rifthouse, St Hilda, Stranton, Headland 26.3 0.7 0.6 6.1 Burn Valley, Dyke House, Foggy Furze, Grange, Town Centre 10.3 2.2 Brierton, Claxton, Dalton Piercy, Elwick, Greatham 3.9 0.8 Sub-total 78.1 0.7 0.0 0.6 17.2 Total within TV4 87.0 77.9 82.4 86.2 83.6 Outside TV4 Darlington 0.6 0.7 0.4 Hambleton 0.8 3.2 2.4 0.6 1.7 Elsewhere in County Durham 3.3 1.7 0.4 1.6 1.7 Elsewhere in North Yorkshire 2.6 8.6 8.3 2.8 5.3 Elsewhere in the UK 5.0 7.7 5.8 7.0 6.5 Outside the UK 0.8 1.0 0.7 1.1 0.9 Sub-total 13.0 22.1 17.6 13.8 16.4 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Base valid responses 9819 10917 9796 15072 45604 Source: 2011 Household Survey

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Travel to work trends 3.34 The 2001 census provides an analysis of travel to work patterns and the extent to which residents in the TV4 area travel to other areas together with details of how many people commute into the area. 3.35 The 2001 census identified the travel to work patterns of 290,081 individuals; of these:  228,598 lived and worked in Tees Valley;  32,537 commuted into Tees Valley from elsewhere; and  28,946 lived in Tees Valley but commuted elsewhere for work. 3.36 Travel to work links with County Durham, North Yorkshire and were particularly strong (Table 3.9).

Table 3.9 Principal travel to work flows between TV5 authorities and other areas In-flow Out-flow Net flow County Durham 15,595 9,281 6,314 Tyne and Wear 3,788 5,149 -1,361 North Yorkshire 9,958 7,268 2,690 All locations 32,537 28,946 3,591 Source: 2001 census

3.37 Therefore, 88.8% of TV5’s residents in employment work in the TV5 area and there is a net out-flow of around 3,600 employees on a daily basis. 3.38 Further information on location of workplace was obtained in the 2011 Household Survey. Based on data from 217,320 economically active residents:  191,110 (87.9%) lived and worked in the TV5 area; and  26,210 (19.3%) lived in the TV5 area but worked elsewhere. 3.39 Of those working outside the TV5 area, 2.6% worked in North Yorkshire, 3.1% in County Durham, 5.4% elsewhere in the UK and 1.0% outside the UK. Of economically active households in Hartlepool, 7.2% worked in County Durham; of those in Redcar and Cleveland 3.5% worked in North Yorkshire. 3.40 The proportion of economically active residents working outside TV5 was highest in Hartlepool (17.2% of whom 7.2% worked in County Durham and 8.4% worked elsewhere in the UK) and 14% in Stockton-on-Tees (4% of whom worked in County Durham and 6.4% worked elsewhere in the UK).

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Concluding comments 3.41 The purpose of this chapter has been to consider the general housing market context of Tees Valley and its inter-relationships with other areas. By reviewing house prices, migration and travel to work patterns, a picture of the market dynamics of the Tees Valley sub-region emerges. 3.42 The Department of Communities and Local Government (CLG) suggests that a housing market is self-contained if upwards of 70% of moves (migration and travel to work) take place within a defined area. An analysis of migration data suggests that 88.8% of households move within the TV4 area and 87.9% work within the TV4 area, therefore the TV4 area can be described as a self contained functional housing market. 3.43 Individual Local Authority Districts are all self contained in terms of migration but not in terms of travel to work as the proportion of residents working in the same Local Authority District is below the 70% CLG threshold (Table 3.10)

Table 3.10 Summary of migration and travel to work data Current residence Redcar Stockton- Previous Residence Hartlepool Middlesbrough and Total on-Tees (%) (%) Cleveland (%) (%) (%) Same LA 82.1 79.4 77.9 77.1 79.1 Elsewhere within Tees Valley (including Darlington) 4.1 10.9 12.3 11.0 9.6 Outside Tees Valley 13.8 9.7 9.8 11.9 11.3 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Base 11,364 14,106 15,935 22,318 63,723 Place of residence Redcar Stockton- Work place Hartlepool Middlesbrough and Total on-Tees (%) (%) Cleveland (%) (%) (%) Same LA area 63.1 59.3 60.1 57.8 60.1 Elsewhere within Tees Valley (including Darlington) 19.6 31.6 31.0 28.2 27.8 Outside Tees Valley 17.2 9.1 8.9 14.0 12.1 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Base 35,132 50,822 57,859 81,281 225,093 Source: 2011 Household Survey

3.44 None of the sub-areas can be described as self-contained with the exception of Billingham (Stockton-on-Tees) with 73.7% of households moving within the same sub-area. Although the other sub-areas cannot be defined as self- contained housing markets, they do have distinctive characteristics which are explored in greater detail in Appendix B.

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4. Strategic Housing Market Assessment Core Outputs

Introduction

4.1 The purpose of this chapter is to present the core outputs required by the SHMA guidance relating to the TV4 Local Authorities. The chapter provides a summary of more detailed work and evidence, which is presented at Technical Appendices A-F.

Core Output 1: Estimates of current dwellings in terms of size, type, condition, tenure

4.2 This study assumes a total of 247,661 dwellings in TV4 of which 12,175 are vacant, resulting in a total of 235,247 occupied dwellings (Table 4.1)12. The overall vacancy rate is 4.9%. This varies within the TV4 area and is highest in Middlesbrough (6.1%) and Hartlepool (5.3%). The vacancy rate in Darlington is lower at 3.7%13 but overall vacancy rates are higher than for the North East region (3.6%) and England (2.8%).

Table 4.1 Dwelling stock and vacancy by District Total % District dwellings Vacant Occupied Vacant Hartlepool 42,186 2,255 39,931 5.3 Middlesbrough 60,632 3,698 56,934 6.1 Redcar and Cleveland 62,112 2,578 59,534 4.2 Stockton on Tees 82,731 3,644 79,087 4.4 TV4 Total 247,661 12,175 235,486 4.9 Darlington* 48,293 1,791 46,502 3.7 TV5 Total 295,954 13,966 281,988 4.7 North East* 1,176,531 41,831 1,134,700 3.6 England* 22,847,142 650,127 22,197,015 2.8 Sources: 2011 Council Tax and *Housing Strategy Statistical Appendix 2010

Property size and type 4.3 Table 4.2 reviews the profile of occupied dwelling stock by size and type across the TV4 area. Overall, the vast majority (77.4%) of properties are houses, 11.8% flats/apartments, 10.3% are bungalows and 0.5% are other types of property including park homes/caravans. Of all occupied properties, 9% have

12 2011 Council Tax data 13 2010 Housing Strategy Statistical Appendix Data arc4 46 Tees Valley 2012 Strategic Housing Assessment Final Report

one bedroom, 25.7% have two bedrooms, 47.4% have three bedrooms and 17.8% have four or more bedrooms. How property type varies by Local Authority is illustrated in Figure 4.1 and variations in number of bedrooms by Local Authority in Figure 4.2.

Table 4.2a Property type and size of occupied dwellings: TV4 Property Type No. Bedrooms (Table %) Base One Two Three Four Five or more Total (No.) Detached house 0.1 0.7 5.5 8.6 2.0 16.9 39,260 Semi-detached house 0.1 5.3 25.8 3.8 0.9 35.8 83,254 Terraced house 0.2 8.8 13.6 1.6 0.5 24.7 57,315 Bungalow 1.8 6.2 1.9 0.3 0.1 10.3 23,994 Maisonette 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 1,045 Flat/apartment 6.5 4.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 11.4 26,380 Caravan/Park Home 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 128 Other 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 983 Total 9.0 25.7 47.4 14.4 3.4 100.0 Base 20,993 59,704 110,166 33,484 8,012 232,359 Source: 2011 Household Survey

Table 4.2b Property type and size of occupied dwellings: Hartlepool Property type No. Bedrooms (Table %) Five or Base One Two Three Four more Total (No.) Detached house 0.0 0.5 4.5 7.0 1.9 13.9 5,537 Semi-detached house 0.1 6.7 19.1 2.7 0.6 29.2 11,671 Terraced house 0.0 14.1 16.9 2.8 0.9 34.8 13,890 Bungalow 1.2 4.6 1.0 0.2 0.2 7.1 2,854 Maisonette 0.5 0.0 0.5 201 Flat/apartment 7.9 5.2 0.6 0.0 13.7 5,477 Caravan/Park Home 0.0 0.3 0.3 124 Other 0.3 0.2 0.4 177 Total 10.0 31.4 42.2 12.7 3.7 100.0 Base 3,995 12,538 16,868 5,062 1,469 39,932 Source: 2011 Household Survey

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Table 4.2c Property type and size of occupied dwellings: Middlesbrough Property type No. Bedrooms (Table %) Five or One Two Three Four more Total Base Detached house 0.0 0.6 5.0 5.1 0.9 11.4 6,518 Semi-detached house 0.3 6.2 29.4 5.0 1.0 41.9 23,859 Terraced house 0.2 7.5 15.8 1.6 0.3 25.4 14,436 Bungalow 1.2 5.0 1.4 0.3 0.0 7.9 4,495 Maisonette 0.0 0.0 0.1 31 Flat/apartment 6.2 6.0 0.3 0.1 12.6 7,164 Caravan/Park Home 0.0 Other 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.8 432 Total 8.1 25.5 52.1 12.1 2.1 100.0 Base 4,639 14,506 29,675 6,910 1,205 56,934 Source: 2011 Household Survey

Table 4.2d Property type and size of occupied dwellings: Redcar and Cleveland Property type No. Bedrooms (Table %) Five or One Two Three Four more Total Base Detached house 0.2 1.0 4.9 8.2 2.2 16.4 9,777 Semi-detached house 0.1 4.7 25.7 3.6 1.0 35.1 20,900 Terraced house 0.2 8.9 12.1 1.3 0.7 23.2 13,832 Bungalow 2.4 9.1 3.5 0.4 0.1 15.5 9,239 Maisonette 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.7 392 Flat/apartment 5.7 2.8 0.1 0.0 8.6 5,123 Caravan/Park Home 0.0 0.0 0.0 6 Other 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 265 Total 8.8 27.1 46.5 13.5 4.0 100.0 Base 5,019 15,449 26,498 7,695 2,273 59,534 Source: 2011 Household Survey

Table 4.2e Property type and size of occupied dwellings: Stockton-on-Tees Property type No. Bedrooms (Table %) Five or One Two Three Four more Total Base Detached house 0.1 0.6 6.9 12.3 2.8 22.7 17,927 Semi-detached house 0.1 4.3 26.6 3.6 0.9 35.4 27,979 Terraced house 0.2 6.9 11.5 1.3 0.3 20.1 15,921 Bungalow 2.2 5.6 1.7 0.3 0.0 9.8 7,732 Maisonette 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 433 Flat/apartment 6.6 4.2 0.4 0.0 11.3 8,970 Caravan/Park Home 0.0 Other 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 125 Total 9.3 21.9 47.3 17.6 3.9 100.0 Base 7,386 17,310 37,425 13,902 3,063 79,087 Source: 2011 Household Survey arc4 48 Tees Valley 2012 Strategic Housing Assessment Final Report

Figure 4.1 Property type by District

Source: 2011 Household Survey

Figure 4.2 Property size by District

Source: 2011 Household Survey

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Property condition 4.4 The 2011 Household Survey reviewed the extent to which households were satisfied with the state of repair of their dwellings. Overall 78.9% of respondents expressed satisfaction (38.5% were very satisfied and 40.4% were satisfied); 12.8% were neither satisfied nor dissatisfied; a total of 8.3% expressed degrees of dissatisfaction, of whom 2% were very dissatisfied. Table 4.3 explores how the level of dissatisfaction varied by dwelling tenure, age and type. 4.5 Data indicates that households in Middlesbrough (9.3%) and Hartlepool (8.8%) were more likely to express dissatisfaction. Levels of dissatisfaction exceeded 10% amongst unfurnished private renters (17.3%), furnished renters (11.5%); and amongst occupants of affordable (social rented/intermediate tenures (11.9%). Note that this information is based on responses to the household survey as expressed by respondents. 4.6 In terms of property type and age, dissatisfaction was highest amongst respondents living in maisonettes (22.5%, terraced houses (14.1%) and flats/apartments (12.5%); and amongst residents in properties built pre 1919 (17%).

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Table 4.3 Dissatisfaction with state of repair by District, property tenure, age and type

No. % LA area Dissatisfied Dissatisfied Base Hartlepool 3,513 8.8 39,931 Middlesbrough 5,271 9.3 56,934 Redcar and Cleveland 4,325 7.3 59,535 Stockton-on-Tees 6,499 8.2 79,087 Total 19,608 8.3 235,487 No. % Tenure Dissatisfied Dissatisfied Base Owned (no mortgage) 2,068 3.3 62,601 Owned (with mortgage) 7,182 7.7 93,383 Rented Privately (furnished) 453 11.4 3,967 Rented Privately (unfurnished) 3,043 17.3 17,639 Tied 51 8.7 586 Affordable (social rented/Intermediate) 6,813 11.9 57,311 No. % Property Type Dissatisfied Dissatisfied Base Detached house 1141 2.9 39,259 Semi-detached house 5,324 6.4 83,254 Terraced house 8064 14.1 57,314 Bungalow 999 4.2 23,994 Maisonette 235 22.5 1,045 Flat/apartment 3301 12.5 26,379 Caravan/Park Home 0 0.0 128 Other 233 23.8 981 No. % Property Age Dissatisfied Dissatisfied Base Pre 1919 3,536 17.0 20,827 1919-1944 3201 8.9 35,926 1945-1964 4988 9.7 51,612 1965-1984 3380 5.6 60,150 1985-2004 1375 4.0 34,264 2005 onwards 469 4.0 11,802 Source: 2011 Household Survey

Property tenure 4.7 The tenure profile of the TV4 area is summarised in Figure 4.3. Variations in broad tenure groups by District summarised in Figure 4.4. Overall, based on survey evidence, 66.2% of occupied dwellings are owner-occupied, 9.4% are private rented, 22.6% are rented from a social housing provider and 1.7% are intermediate tenure (e.g. shared ownership).

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Figure 4.3 TV4: tenure profile of occupied dwellings

Owned (no mortgage) 62,601

Owned (with mortgage) 93,383

Private rented 21,607

Affordable (Social rented and 57,312 intermediate)

- 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 No. occupied households

Source: 2011 Household Survey

4.8 Tenure profile varies across the TV4 area (Figure 4.4). The proportion of owner occupied dwellings is highest in Stockton-on-Tees (69.4%) and Redcar and Cleveland (68.4%). social renting is highest in Middlesbrough (28.3%) and Hartlepool (26.6%) and private renting is highest in Hartlepool (11%) and Middlesbrough (9.3%).

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Figure 4.4 TV4 tenure profile by Local Authority

Source: 2011 Household Survey

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Core Output 2: Past and current housing market trends; balance between supply and demand; key drivers

Total dwelling stock 4.9 There are currently a total of 247,661 residential dwellings across the TV4 area of which 235,487 are occupied by individual households14. The total number of dwellings has increased from 235,797 in 200115.

Owner-occupied market 4.10 66.2% (156,000) of households across the TV4 area are owner occupiers. 26.6% of all households (62,600) own outright and 39.7% of all households (93,400) have a mortgage. Most owner-occupied properties (87.9%) are houses (of which 40.8% are semi-detached, 24.4% terraced and 22.7% detached), a further 9.7% are bungalows, 2.2% are flats and 0.3% are other types including caravans. 1.3% of owner-occupied properties have one bedroom, 20.1% have two bedrooms, 53.7% have three bedrooms and 20.2% have four or more bedrooms. Further analysis of owner occupied stock and household characteristics can be found at Appendix B. 4.11 Over the period 2000 to 2011, lower quartile and median house prices16 across Tees Valley has increased dramatically as summarised in Table 4.4. 4.12 It is interesting to note that in 2000, a household income of £9,476 was required for a lower quartile price to be affordable; by 2011 this had increased to £23,450. In comparison, an income of £14,748 was required for a median priced property to be affordable in 2000 compared with £34,048 in Q2 2011.

14 Based on Council Tax 2011 15 HIP return 2001 16 Land Registry House Price information arc4 54 Tees Valley 2012 Strategic Housing Assessment Final Report

Table 4.4 Lower Quartile and median price and income required to be affordable

Income to be District Lower Quartile affordable* 2000 Q2 2011 2000 Q2 2011 Darlington £34,000 £85,000 £9,714 £24,286 Hartlepool £26,500 £77,000 £7,571 £22,000 Middlesbrough £26,000 £70,000 £7,429 £20,000 Northumberland £38,000 £93,458 £10,857 £26,702 Redcar and Cleveland £36,000 £79,995 £10,286 £22,856 Stockton-on-Tees £38,500 £87,000 £11,000 £24,857 Income to be District Median affordable* 2000 Q2 2011 2000 Q2 2011 Darlington £52,000 £115,000 £14,857 £32,857 Hartlepool £47,000 £110,000 £13,429 £31,429 Middlesbrough £45,000 £110,000 £12,857 £31,429 Northumberland £59,950 £145,000 £17,129 £41,429 Redcar and Cleveland £50,000 £110,000 £14,286 £31,429 Stockton-on-Tees £55,750 £125,000 £15,929 £35,714 Source: DCLG / Land Registry *Assuming a 3.5x income multiple

4.13 In terms of household type, 34.9% of owner occupiers are couples with children, 20.8% are older (60 or over) singles and couples, 19.6% are couples (under 60 with no children), 14.5% are singles, 7% are lone parents and 3.2% are other household types. 4.14 The majority of owner occupiers have lived in their accommodation for at least 10 years (26.7% between 10 and 20 years and 34.7% for 20 years or more). 82.4% of outright owners have lived in their accommodation for at least 10 years. 4.15 The majority of adults aged 16 or over living in owner occupied dwellings are in employment (69.5%) and a further 19% are wholly retired from work. The proportion retired is considerably higher for outright owners (44.6%). 4.16 Incomes amongst owner occupiers tend to be high, with 46.2% receiving at least £500 each week. That said, incomes amongst outright owners tend to be lower than for mortgaged owners, with 45.9% receiving less than £300 each week compared with 16.6% of mortgaged owners. This reflects the different age profile and economic status of outright owners.

Views of estate agents 4.17 Views on the current housing market position were sought from estate agents operating across the four local authority areas. Agents were invited to participate in the on line stakeholder survey and were also contacted in person for a telephone interview. Market activity and demand varies according to area, so our consultation with estate agents concentrated on some key themes and issues. arc4 55 Tees Valley 2012 Strategic Housing Assessment Final Report

Demand/Market characteristics 4.18 Property is selling but is very price sensitive, with demand for flats and apartments, three storey town houses and larger, higher value homes (£700,000) proving limited. 4.19 Market demand is predominantly locally based, with limited demand being generated from outside of the area. Of demand coming from outside the Tees Valley, this is generally associated with people relocating to be near to family or employment, with James Cook University Hospital highlighted as key employers bringing people into the area (and a similar pattern of migration is expected with the proposed Wynyard hospital development). 4.20 In terms of supply there was felt to be no particular shortage of property types. Demand from buy to let investors remains strong, but again this is very price sensitive. Buy to let properties tend to be those at the bottom end of the market – smaller homes but not necessarily flats as many of these were purchased at the top end of the market cycle by investors unwilling or unable to drop prices; a significant contributory factor in why flats struggle to sell.

First time buyers 4.21 All agents consulted confirmed that first time buyers are struggling to access the market, with few if any having the means to purchase; as one agent put it ‘they have more or less disappeared.’ The lack of first time buyers clearly has a knock-on effect in terms of overall supply and demand.

Older people 4.22 There are a high number of older people living in the Tees Valley. There is demand in some areas from people looking to downsize and move to a smaller home closer to local amenities. However, it was felt that the current market offer for this group was inappropriate and did not meet either their needs or aspirations. For example, in Yarm none of the open market flatted developments have lifts, even though several of them are three storey buildings. A local agent cited several examples of older person households having downsized to a town centre flat having to move on after a short period of time as they could not cope with the stairs.

Affordability 4.23 Affordability was not mentioned as an issue by any of the agents that were interviewed. However, with the limited number of first time buyers within the market it is reasonable to assume that there is a pent up demand for affordable housing for sale. 4.24 Whilst there is a market for affordable home ownership access to mortgage finance was identified as a problem by affordable housing providers. With only two building societies lending on these products they are cautious about over exposure to risk on certain sites/developments, and will only take on so many arc4 56 Tees Valley 2012 Strategic Housing Assessment Final Report

properties in any given area – some developments have reached saturation point so new lenders need to be found.

Views of developers 4.25 Developers working across the Tees Valley felt that the issues faced in the sub region reflect those faced by the North East as a whole, with a key issue identified being the predication of land supply within LDFs being based on regeneration sites that are not viable in the current market. In the current risk averse market developers perceive the need to make available a more balanced supply of land for development and are keen to work with local councils to explore all opportunities to bring forward housing sites. Proactive approaches, such as linking edge of settlement sites with specific regeneration sites, were welcomed. 4.26 Developers talked in terms of two categories of site, deliverable sites and regeneration sites. They felt that regeneration sites in and of themselves would not come forward in current or foreseeable markets, and see this situation as representing an opportunity for local councils to take stock of sites within their areas. Developers are eager to work with local councils to review development sites within their areas and understand why sites have stalled, assess whether or not they would be likely to come forward for development and if so at what point in the future, and identify what is required to bring sites forward (i.e. lack of subsidy, too onerous planning obligations, high risk design, lack of demand etc). It was felt that such a review would identify those sites most likely to come forward and enable realistic forward planning in terms of housing supply. 4.27 The consensus of opinion was that confidence/finance from investors in terms of developing regeneration sites is not currently there and is unlikely to be so for at least the next five years. The view from developers regarding growth is that ‘in terms of new housing supply growth needs to go where growth is required’; in other words homes need to be built where the demand is, and this is not on regeneration sites. 4.28 It was felt that local councils need to fully explore the opportunities and flexibilities in the Localism Act and new National Planning Policy Framework to tailor approaches and solutions that work best within their areas to bring forward a mixed supply of land. 4.29 Reducing housing numbers was not felt to represent a solution as it is felt that this would stymie growth by planning for less; ‘reducing numbers narrows choices’. It is also felt that construction plays an important and positive role in terms of economic growth. 4.30 In terms of current and planned activity, developers have reset products and prices to ensure that there is a steady supply of housing coming forward. New development aims to meet the needs of traditional homeowners, flats and large executive homes are not being built. Most new schemes have a mix of houses both in terms of type and size (two to four bed houses – terraced to detached). 4.31 In conclusion, the market is not robust so the better locations (greenfield) have to be the mainstay of current supply and be used to provide cross subsidy for brownfield and regeneration sites. Getting the planning right is crucial and arc4 57 Tees Valley 2012 Strategic Housing Assessment Final Report

developers want to be involved and work with local councils to find solutions; a developers’ round table was suggested.

Private rented sector 4.32 The sector is diverse in terms of the range of households it accommodates and the types of properties available. A report ‘The Modern Private Rented Sector’17 provides a useful overview of the sector. Drawing upon 2001 census data, it suggests that the private rented sector has five key roles:  A traditional housing role for people who have lived in the private rented sector for many years;  Easy access housing for the young and mobile;  Providing accommodation tied to employment;  A residual role for those who are unable to access owner occupation or social renting;  An alternative to social rented housing (for instance those wanting to move to a different area but unable to do so through their social housing provider). 4.33 Given the range of roles of the private rented sector, there is a considerable diversity in the characteristics of private renting tenants. Evidence from the 2001 census (Rhodes, 2006) indicates that households living in private rented accommodation:  tend to have younger heads of household;  are ethnically diverse;  singles, lone parents and other multi-adult households are over-represented compared with other tenures;  people in professional and higher technical occupations are over-represented compared with other tenures;  are more likely to be highly mobile geographically and turnover rates are high;  is more likely to accommodate international migrants. 4.34 The private rented sector (see Appendix B for full details) accommodates around 9.4% (22,200) of households across the TV4 area. Of these households, 17,639 rent unfurnished properties, 3,968 rent furnished and 585 rent tied accommodation. Table 4.5 summarises the number of private rented dwellings by district and indicates that 32.5% of all private rented dwellings are in Stockton On Tees, a further 24% are in Middlesbrough, 23.7% in Redcar and Cleveland and 19.8% are in Hartlepool

17 ‘The Modern Private Rented Sector’ David Rhodes, 2006 University of with CIH/JRF arc4 58 Tees Valley 2012 Strategic Housing Assessment Final Report

Table 4.5 Profile of private rented sector in TV4 area District Tenure Rented Rented Privately Privately (furnished) (unfurnished) Tied Total Hartlepool Count 346 3897 159 4402 % of PRS 1.6 17.6 0.7 19.8 Middlesbrough Count 927 4189 207 5323 % of PRS 4.2 18.9 0.9 24.0 Redcar and Cleveland Count 862 4298 101 5261 % of PRS 3.9 19.4 0.5 23.7 Stockton-on-Tees Count 1833 5255 118 7206 % of PRS 8.3 23.7 0.5 32.5 TV4 Count 3968 17639 585 22192 % of PRS 17.9 79.5 2.6 100.0 Source: 2011 Household Survey

4.35 The characteristics of tenants are diverse and in particular the private rented sector accommodates singles (24.3%), couples with no children (16.3%), couples with children (21%) and lone parents (25.3%). 46.6% have lived in their accommodation for less than two years. In terms of income, 62.4% of privately renting households receive less than £300 gross each week, 20.9% receive between £300 and £500 each week and 16.6% receive at least £500 each week, indicating that the private rented sector tends to accommodate lower income households. 53.8% of household reference people (heads of household) living in private rented accommodation are employed, 13.3% are unemployed, 9.8% are permanently sick/disabled, 8.4% are carers or looking after the home, 5.3% are wholly retired from work and 2.3% are in full-time education.

Views of lettings agents and private landlords 4.36 Demand for private rented accommodation is strong, with property in Middlesbrough town centre, close to the university being identified as a particular hot spot popular with students. Although there is some speculation that the introduction of tuition fees may cause this market to contract. Generally demand for rented accommodation is broad; one landlord has a tenant demographic ranging from ‘single people in their twenties to pensioners in their seventies.’ 4.37 A high proportion of tenants in the sector are on benefits, reforms to housing benefit are therefore having an impact. Many landlords have had to freeze rents, and several are no longer accepting single people under 35, even if they are in employment given their ineligibility to full LHA. One landlord states that ‘there will be an increased demand for shared housing to cope with the single under 35 year olds.’ 4.38 Poor standards of accommodation were cited as problematic in particular areas/with specific property types – generally pre-1919 back of pavement terraces.

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4.39 Respondents to the on-line survey were split in their views on the size of the sector, many felt that the private rented sector is too big and offers poor quality, unregulated accommodation. Other felt that there is capacity to increase the size and offer of the sector. ‘As a private landlord I feel that the private rented sector could be bigger. The largest proportion of privately rented houses in the region attracts benefit tenants or low paid workers. This is because historically housing has been relatively cheap in the region and most working people could afford o buy for themselves. …It would be difficult to attract big finance like pension funds into the private rented sector in our area… Benefit and low paid workers involve a lot of management.’ ‘In the Tees Valley Region we have some of the cheapest properties in England. This will attract outside investors, not landlords. Locally landlords know the markets. Changes in mortgage finance has impacted – people are unable to get onto the housing ladder, people are unable to move due to negative equity and people are afraid to buy (if they can afford) as house prices are continuing to fall. I do not see these trends changing for a minimum of five years.’

Affordable sector 4.40 There are around 53,000 households who live in an affordable (social) rented property across the TV4 area, accounting for 22.6% of all occupied dwellings. 4.41 Houses account for 52.3% of occupied affordable dwelling stock, 33.9% are flats/apartments and 13.8% are bungalows. Affordable dwellings tend to have one (28.4%), two (36.4%) or three (33.3%) bedrooms, with a further 2.4% having four or more bedrooms. 4.42 30.5% of households living in affordable dwellings are singles under 60, a further 27.6% are older singles and couples, 17.4% lone parents, 11.6% couples with children, 7.9% couples (under 60 with no children) and 4.8% are other types of household. 4.43 26.4% of all people aged 16 or over living in affordable housing are in employment. A further 24.7% are permanently sick/disabled, 23.2% are wholly retired from work, 12.7% are looking after the home/a full-time carer or volunteer, 11.9% are unemployed and 1.1% are in full-time education or training. 4.44 Incomes are generally low, with 87% receiving an income of less than £300 gross each week and 64.5% receiving less than £200 gross each week.

Views of affordable housing providers 4.45 Consultation with affordable housing providers identified a number of themes/challenges facing them in the current market, these are now summarised.

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Funding 4.46 Uncertainty over funding for new development is a significant issue for providers. Subsidy for new affordable housing is on a downward trajectory, and whilst there is scope to increase rents, and therefore rental income that could be used to fund new housing, this will be squeezed by reforms to housing benefit and welfare reforms (universal credit). All providers felt that Section 106 contributions were unlikely in the current climate. 4.47 There is a lot of uncertainty for providers at the moment around income streams due to the introduction of the new affordable rent model, benefit reform, and the loss of direct payments; all these things are having an impact on long term capacity and planning. 4.48 In terms of housing market fluctuations and the economic downturn, providers felt that the sub region is unlikely to emerge soon from the recession, Tees Valley ‘always being first in and last out.’ The current economic climate and market make refinancing difficult for providers, short to medium term finance deals are poor compared to the longer (35 year) borrowing arrangements previously available. There are no long-term lenders around and the race is on to try and unlock the bond market to gain access to better finance deals and institutional investors (pension funds being approached to try and secure better and longer-term funding. If this is successful then it means that there will be resources available to enable development - including mixed tenure schemes).

Quality 4.49 There are tensions between Government quality agendas that put pressure on providers:  Providers are still working to the Sustainable Homes Level 6, which is expensive;  There are still high space standards, which are above those in the private sector new build market so providers have to build high quality, larger houses and allocate them sustainably (i.e. allocate on space available and not overcrowd);  Government policy around welfare dependency is targeting under-occupancy and unemployment; 4.50 Providers are trapped between these conflicting pressures: an increasing upward pressure on space and design standards and downward pressure on benefit budgets. 4.51 On 106 sites the standard house types that providers take from developers are well below usual space standards and are allocated accordingly (i.e. a two bed private sector house is not big enough for a family of four as per the allocations policy, the second bedroom is frequently a small box room). In the past providers have under-allocated to compensate for the small size of these houses. Benefit changes mean that this will no longer be possible (tenants will be deemed to be under-occupying and have their housing benefit reduced). This raises questions about how far down the road of accepting off the shelf housing providers should go; at some point it becomes unsustainable. arc4 61 Tees Valley 2012 Strategic Housing Assessment Final Report

Strategic planning 4.52 Tees Valley Local Authorities need to continue working together on strategic issues across the sub-region. Otherwise there is a risk that local authorities will work more on their own more, with a subsequent lack of coherent single strategic framework and associated priorities. 4.53 There is support for a review of sites, to look at those that have some potential to generate investment; especially as regeneration areas have stalled (intervention money has been secured for Middlesbrough and Hartlepool to clear stalled HMR areas but nothing more; there is no provision for a strategic plan or master plan of any kind). There needs to be an understanding of where we have got to before planning for the future can happen. 4.54 The LEP has agreed to have some kind of focus on housing, which is positive but there are concerns that this is insufficient and impetus generated through the HMR work will be lost. A strategic sub regional approach is essential to providers working across the Tees Valley and this needs to be a priority. 4.55 In Middlesbrough there are challenges within the private rented market, with some areas experiencing increasing instances of drug use, crime and prostitution. There needs to be a discussion about what role providers should have in some of these more difficult areas - could they take over managing some of these private rented homes to improve standards? These areas represent a complex strategic challenge and providers need to be involved in finding solutions alongside local authorities and their communities.

Executive housing 4.56 Executive housing is currently under-represented in the dwelling stock in the North East Region. Although the executive housing market only constitutes a small segment of the overall housing market this lack of supply is considered to be acting as a barrier to economic growth and in-migration in the Region18. # 4.57 Previous study definitions into Executive Housing in the North East (NLP and DCHR 2004) developed a broad definition of this market: “High quality accommodation suited to the needs and aspirations of higher income households”. 4.58 Distinctive features of executive housing are:  High property values:  With high incomes required to support purchase and high values are linked to desirable locations; and  High quality construction including exterior and interior fittings. 4.59 The former RSS stated that the provision and location of executive housing has a role in both attracting and retaining mobile professionals in the North East. In

18 Regional Housing Aspirations Study (NLP 2005) and the North East Executive Housing Study (NLP 2005). arc4 62 Tees Valley 2012 Strategic Housing Assessment Final Report

the Tees Valley executive housing provision will have a role in response to the need for diversification and expansion of the sub-region’s economy and in contributing towards achieving wider population and economic growth objectives for the Region. 4.60 This SHMA has sought to investigate the requirements for Executive Housing through a review of existing provision, stakeholder discussions and analysis of household survey evidence. 4.61 In terms of existing provision, Table 4.6 considers the number and distribution of Council Tax Band G and H properties across the TV4 area. There are around 2,600 such properties and 29.6% are in the Rural Areas of Stockton on Tees, 13.9% are in South Middlesbrough, 12% in the Outer Suburbs of Hartlepool and 7.6% are in Guisborugh, Redcar and Cleveland. 4.62 The household survey can be used to explore the housing options being considered by higher income groups (with a weekly income of at least £950). Although the executive housing market is a niche market, reviewing the housing aspirations of high income groups is an appropriate way of investigating the potential demand for executive housing. 4.63 The household survey identifies 21,200 households with an income of at least £950 each week. Of these households, 5,450 are intending to move in the next five years. Of this group of high income households, 64.8% stated a first preference location within Tees Valley (particularly Yarm, Eaglescliffe, Preston (13%); Victoria Harbour area of Hartlepool (8.6%), rural areas of Stockton (8.4%) and Saltburn (6.1%).A further 21.4% stated their first location preference to be in North Yorkshire, 7.6% in County Durham, 5.2% elsewhere in the UK and 1% outside the UK.

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Table 4.6 Location of Council Tax Band G and H properties by sub-area and District across the TV4 area. No. District Sub-Area properties % in TV4 Hartlepool Inner Suburbs 9 0.3 Outer Suburbs 311 12.0 Rural 137 5.3 Town Centre 5 0.2 Middlesbrough East 3 0.1 Greater Hemlington 42 1.6 North 22 0.8 South 361 13.9 West 32 1.2 Brotton 7 0.3 Redcar and Cleveland Greater Eston North 1 0.0 Greater Eston South 58 2.2 Guisborough 196 7.6 Loftus 10 0.4 Redcar 16 0.6 Saltburn 57 2.2 Skelton 31 1.2 Stockton on Tees Billingham 38 1.5 Ingleby Barwick 106 4.1 Rural Areas 769 29.6 Stockton Inner Core 15 0.6 Stockton Outer Core 103 4.0 Thornaby 7 0.3 Yarm/Preston/Eaglescliffe 259 10.0 TV4 Total 2595 100.0

4.64 In terms of dwelling preferences, likes and expectations are summarised in Table 4.7. This indicates strongest aspiration towards detached houses with at least three bedrooms; a majority would still expect to move to a detached property but they are more likely to expect to move to a semi-detached property with three or more bedrooms.

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Table 4.7 High income household dwelling aspirations and expectations’ Like/Aspiration No. Beds Property type (Table %) Semi- Detached detached Terraced house house house Flat Bungalow Total One Two 1.5 0.0 1.1 3.3 5.9 Three 16.3 5.2 0.3 0.2 9.0 31.0 Four 45.4 1.5 0.0 0.0 1.3 48.1 Five or more 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.9 Total 78.1 6.7 0.3 1.2 13.6 100.0

Expectation No. Beds Property type (Table %) Semi- Detached detached Terraced house house house Flat Bungalow Total One 1.0 0.0 1.0 Two 2.2 1.8 1.0 0.4 1.9 7.3 Three 17.1 12.2 0.3 0.2 7.9 37.8 Four 38.5 7.2 0.5 0.0 0.6 46.8 Five or more 6.1 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.3 7.1 Total 63.9 21.9 1.8 1.6 10.8 100.0 Source: 2011 Household Survey

4.65 In terms of reasons for moving, most frequently mentioned is wanting a larger property/one that is better in some way (34.9%) and to move to a better neigbourhood/more pleasant area (18.4%). A challenge must be to provide more large houses in the better areas of the Tees Valley to help attract more and retain more mid-upper income households. 4.66 The 2009 SHMA suggested evidence on the ground shows that executive housing developments in the Tees Valley have been successful in attracting and retaining highly skilled and entrepreneurial people. Notably recent research by the Centre for Urban and Regional Research at Newcastle University indicates that some 40% of the residents of the Wynyard development in Stockton own or part own a business. Furthermore, 40% of its residents are footloose purchasers from outside the Region who may not have otherwise chosen Stockton as a place to live. The Wynyard development demonstrates the existence of demand for executive housing. 4.67 In the 2009 SHMA, developers identified a number of areas as appropriate locations for executive housing developments in the Tees Valley:  South Middlesbrough (to capture North Yorkshire market and capitalise on proximity to the strategic road network);  Guisborough (small scale);  Pockets to the west of Hartlepool  Around Darlington arc4 65 Tees Valley 2012 Strategic Housing Assessment Final Report

4.68 Some executive development is currently ongoing (for instance in Redcar and Cleveland and South Middlesbrough) but generally developers are focusing their attention of building for traditional markets at present.

Open market demand and supply 4.69 It is possible to review the extent to which open market demand and supply is balanced. Using household survey data, it is possible to ascertain market demand (as measured by the aspirations from existing households, newly- forming households and in-migrant households). This can then be reconciled with the likely supply based on turnover rates in the preceding five years. 4.70 This analysis helps to identify areas where there are imbalances in the provision of general market accommodation relative to expectations, and is illustrated in Table 4.8A to B presents results for each local authority and constituent sub- areas

Table 4.8A Review of general market supply and demand: Hartlepool Inner Outer Town Suburbs Suburbs Rural Centre Hartlepool Total 0.8 0.9 1.5 1.0 0.9 Owner Occupied 0.7 0.9 1.3 0.4 0.8

Tenure Private Rented 1.1 1.1 1.7 1.9 1.5 One 1.1 10.3 1.0 2.3 1.9 Two 1.0 1.0 1.9 1.2 1.1 Three 0.9 0.9 1.2 0.8 0.9

Property Property size Four or more 0.5 0.8 1.4 1.3 0.7 Detached Hse 0.0 0.7 1.4 0.2 0.5 Semi Det Hse 0.9 1.4 1.0 0.8 1.1 Terraced Hse 1.8 0.3 16.0 1.7 1.4 Flat (inc bedsits) 0.8 13.2 1.9 1.1 1.4

Property Property type Bungalow 0.2 0.3 1.9 0.0 0.3

Demand exceeds supply and particular pressure on stock Demand exceeds supply and some pressure on stock Demand equals supply; demand likely to be satisfied Supply considerably exceeds demand Source: 2011 Household Survey

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Table 4.8B Review of general market supply and demand: Middlesbrough Greater Middles East Hemlington North South West brough Total 1.0 1.0 1.3 0.8 1.1 1.1 Owner Occupied 1.1 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.0

Tenure Private Rented 0.9 5.4 1.6 0.6 1.8 1.3 One 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.3 4.1 1.0 Two 2.0 2.5 1.4 2.3 1.3 1.5 Three 0.9 0.7 1.6 0.8 0.8 0.9

Property Property size Four or more 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 1.7 0.9 Detached Hse 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.4 Semi Det Hse 1.1 1.1 2.1 1.3 1.2 1.3 Terraced Hse 1.5 1.7 2.1 1.0 1.0 1.6 Flat (inc bedsits) 0.9 1.0 1.1 0.8 2.3 1.4

Property Property type Bungalow 0.8 3.6 0.0 0.5 1.4 0.7

Demand exceeds supply and particular pressure on stock Demand exceeds supply and some pressure on stock Demand equals supply; demand likely to be satisfied Supply considerably exceeds demand Source: 2011 Household Survey

Table 4.8C Review of general market supply and demand: Redcar and Cleveland Greater Greater Eston Guisboro Redcar & Brotton Eston North South ugh Loftus Redcar Saltburn Skelton Cleveland Total 1.2 1.3 0.7 1.0 0.9 1.6 1.1 1.5 1.2 Owner Occupied 1.2 1.5 0.5 0.9 0.7 1.4 1.1 1.5 1.1

Tenure Private Rented 1.2 1.1 9.2 1.0 1.9 2.1 1.3 1.4 1.5 One 1.0 1.5 1.0 0.8 1.0 6.5 2.5 1.0 1.5 Two 1.3 1.9 1.8 1.3 0.9 1.5 1.0 1.3 1.5 Three 1.4 0.5 0.4 1.6 0.8 1.7 1.2 1.7 1.2

Property Property size Four or more 0.8 2.0 0.6 0.4 1.1 1.3 1.0 1.3 0.9 Detached Hse 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 1.1 0.1 1.2 0.7 Semi Det Hse 4.4 1.1 0.3 1.4 1.1 1.7 2.3 1.3 1.3 Terraced Hse 1.3 2.3 1.0 1.8 1.1 1.7 3.0 3.0 1.9 Flat (inc bedsits) 1.0 0.5 1.0 0.7 3.0 12.7 1.4 1.7 1.3

Property Property type Bungalow 1.1 14.4 1.9 1.7 0.6 1.4 0.6 1.0 1.5

Demand exceeds supply and particular pressure on stock Demand exceeds supply and some pressure on stock Demand equals supply; demand likely to be satisfied Supply considerably exceeds demand Source: 2011 Household Survey

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Table 4.8D Review of general market supply and demand: Stockton-on-Tees Stockton Yarm/ Ingleby Rural Inner Stockton Preston/ Stockton- Billingham Barwick Areas Core Outer Core Thornaby Eaglescliffe on-Tees Total 0.9 1.2 1.1 1.4 0.8 1.3 1.2 1.1 Owner Occupied 1.0 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.0

Tenure Private Rented 0.7 1.3 1.4 2.3 0.8 3.4 1.9 1.4 One 1.0 1.0 1.0 2.7 0.4 0.7 1.6 1.4 Two 0.8 1.2 1.1 1.9 2.1 1.6 1.4 1.5 Three 1.0 1.2 0.7 1.6 0.9 1.9 1.6 1.1

Property Property size Four or more 0.8 1.3 1.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.7 Detached Hse 0.6 1.1 1.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.6 Semi Det Hse 1.0 2.2 0.8 1.2 1.2 1.8 1.7 1.3 Terraced Hse 1.2 3.7 2.3 2.7 3.0 4.2 1.5 2.6 Flat (inc bedsits) 1.0 0.8 0.6 2.0 0.6 2.0 2.1 1.4

Property Property type Bungalow 1.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.2 0.4 0.7 0.8

Demand exceeds supply and particular pressure on stock Demand exceeds supply and some pressure on stock Demand equals supply; demand likely to be satisfied Supply considerably exceeds demand Source: 2011 Household Survey

4.71 In summary, analysis of general market supply and demand suggests that the open market is generally balanced at Local Authority level, but there are some notable variations by sub-area:  Hartlepool: notable shortfall of detached houses in the inner suburbs and town centre and across the district generally; shortfall of terraced properties in the outer suburbs; and bungalows across most of the district; market in rural area most balanced in terms of supply meeting demand. Supply of terraced dwellings rural areas, flats in Inner and Outer Suburbs; and one bedroom properties in the Town Centre and Outer Suburbs considerably greater than demand.  Middlesbrough: shortfall of detached across all sub-areas and bungalows in most, particularly the north and south sub-areas; shortfalls of larger properties (four or more bedrooms) and three bedroom properties across most sub- areas; market imbalances most apparent in Greater Hemlington, South and East sub-areas. Supply of two bedroom properties in most areas considerably greater than demand; along with semi-detached and terraced properties in the North sub-area and flats in the West sub-area.  Redcar and Cleveland: market general balanced with the exception of Greater Eston South (with notable shortfalls of three, four + bedroom and most property types), Guisborough (notable shortfalls of 4+ bedroom and detached houses) and Loftus (shortfall of detached and most property sizes). Supply considerably exceeds demand in particular locations including Redcar (for private rented, one bedroom and flats), Saltburn (one bedroom and semi- detached and terraced houses); and large (4+) properties, terraced and bungalows in Greater Eston North.  Stockton on Tees: Shortfall of bungalows across most of the district and 4+ bedroom and detached properties in the Inner Core, Outer Core and Thornaby areas. Markets less likely to be balanced in Billingham and Stockton Outer Core. Supply considerably exceeds demand for terraced properties arc4 68 Tees Valley 2012 Strategic Housing Assessment Final Report

across most of the district and flats in Stockton Inner Core, Thornaby and Yarm/Preston/Eaglescliffe sub-areas. 4.72 Future development should focus on delivering to address identified shortfalls and reflect household aspirations which are discussed in more detail later in this chapter. 4.73 The actual product mix to be delivered on a site by site basis should take account of the imbalances evidenced in Tables 4.8 a to d. 4.74 This analysis has been carried out during a period of economic uncertainty and mortgage finance restrictions are inhibiting the ability of households to move. The substantial degree of market balance should be considered in this context. Arguably, as economic circumstances improve there is likely to be an increase in market activity.

Key market drivers 4.75 The factors underpinning housing markets in the TV4 area are explored in detail in Appendix B. Essentially, there are three key primary drivers influencing the current (and future) housing market: demographic, economic and dwelling stock characteristics, as summarised in Table 4.9.

Table 4.9 Primary market drivers

Primary Driver Attributes Impact on overall demand through: Demography Changing no. of households, Natural Change household structure, ethnicity Economy Jobs, income, activity rates, Economic migration unemployment Housing stock and Quality vs. aspirations, relative Residential migration aspirations prices, accessibility, development programmes

4.76 In summary, the following demographic drivers will continue to underpin the operation of the TV4 housing market area:  An increasing population, with 2008-based ONS population projections predicting a population in 2033 of 601,700 compared with 563,300 in 2010, an increase of 38,400 (6.8%);  Over the next few decades, there will be a ‘demographic shift’ with the number (and proportion) of older people increasing. In 2010, ONS projections suggested there were 94,000 people aged 65 and over, 44,000 aged 75 and over and 12,000 aged 85 and over. 2008-based ONS projections suggest an increase of 50,000 people aged 65 and over, and 31,000 aged 75+ and 15,000 aged 85 and over by 2033;

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 CLG trend-based projections19 indicate that the number of households in the TV4 area is expected to increase 234,000 in 2008 to 262,000 in 2026 and to 272,000 in 2033. This represents an annual increase to 2033 of around 1,520 households. The rate of increase is predicted to be 17.9% for Hartlepool, 13.8% for Middlesbrough, 8.6% in Redcar and Cleveland and 22.8% in Stockton on Tees. Although the total number of households is predicted to grow, the aging population means that most of the growth will be in older person households. Over the period 2008-2026, the total number of households is expected to increase by 24,000. Of this increase, 20,000 will be from households headed by someone aged 65 or over; 9,000 will be attributed to households with a household reference person aged 15-44 and there will be a decline of 5000 households with a household reference person aged 45- 64;  The 2011 household survey indicates that the largest household groups are couples with children (28%), single adults (under 60) 19.1%, couples (under 60 with no children) (16.4%), lone parents (11.2%), singles over 60 (10.9%), couples over 60 (10.4%) and 3.8% are other household types; and  Regional household projections suggest that the proportion of singles and other household types is likely to increase in the future. 4.77 The following economic drivers underpin the operation of the TV4 market area:  58.4% of household reference people are economically active and are in employment according to the 2011 household survey; a further 19.8% are retired; 8.9% are permanently sick/disabled; 6.1% are either looking after the home, in training or provide full-time care; 6% are unemployed and available for work; and 0.7% are in full-time education/training;  87.9% of people in employment work within the TV4 area. Of those working outside the TV5 area, 2.6% worked in North Yorkshire, 3.1% in County Durham, 5.4% elsewhere in the UK and 1.0% outside the UK;  According to the ONS Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, lower quartile earnings in 2011 across the TV4 area were £17,581 which compares with £17,316 for the North East region and £18,720 for England. Median incomes were £23,722, compared with a regional median of £23,447 and a national median of £26,395. Within the TV4 are there was a degree of variation in lower quartile and median incomes, as shown in Table 4.10.

19 CLG 2008-based household projections arc4 70 Tees Valley 2012 Strategic Housing Assessment Final Report

Table 4.10 Lower quartile and median incomes in Tees Valley Lower District Quartile Median Darlington £16,344 £21,627 Hartlepool £18,548 £24,471 Middlesbrough £16,344 £21,627 Redcar and Cleveland £17,441 £23,015 Stockton-on-Tees £17,992 £25,776 TV4 average £17,581 £23,722  There is considerable income polarisation across the TV4 area, with 44.6% of households receiving less than £300 each week and 33.7% receiving at least £500 each week.

4.78 In terms of dwelling stock, the 2011 household survey reports that, across the TV4 area:  77.4% of properties are houses, 11.8% are flats/maisonettes, 10.3% are bungalows and 0.5% are other property types (e.g. caravans);  9.1% have one bedroom, 25.8% have two bedrooms, 47.4% have three bedrooms and 17.7% have four or more bedrooms;  9.7% of properties were built before 1919, a further 16.7% were built between 1919 and 1944, 24.1% between 1945 and 1964, 28% between 1965 and 1984 and 21.5% have been built since 1985;  66.2% of properties are owner-occupied, 22.6% are rented from a social landlord, 9.4% are private rented and 1.7% are intermediate tenure (e.g. shared ownership);  There is a particularly strong aspiration for houses and some household type- specific aspirations which are explored in more detail in discussions relating to Core Output 6.

Core Output 3: Future households

Household projections 4.79 Estimates of the number of future households can be derived from CLG household projections which are based on Office for National Statistics population projections. CLG 2008-based household projections suggest that the number of households across the TV4 area is expected to increase from 234,000 in 2008 to 262,000 by 2026 (an increase of 11.9%) and to 272,000 by 2033 (an increase of 16.2%). This equates to an average annual increase of around 1,520 households to 2033. Across the TV5 area, the number of households is expected to increase from 278,000 in 2008 to 326,000 in 2033, an increase of 17.3% or 1,920 each year. arc4 71 Tees Valley 2012 Strategic Housing Assessment Final Report

Figure 4.5 Projected household change 2008-2033 (TV5 area)

Source: Sub-national household projections 2008-based

4.80 Tees Valley Unlimited has prepared detailed analysis of household change over the period 2008 to 2026 (which covers the years in the Local Development Framework plans) based on CLG household projections. This work breaks the household projections down to household type and household type/age of household reference person (HRP or head of household). covering the Core Strategy using CLG household projection data. 4.81 From the outset, it is important to note that household projections do not automatically translate into housing targets. Determining an appropriate housing target is much more complex than simply reflecting household projections. Other factors, such as deliverability constraints and strategic policies also need to be taken into account. On balance, targets need to be set with the strategic vision of the Councils in mind, coupled with a realistic assessment of what is deliverable and over what timeframe. 4.82 The CLG projections are purely trend-based and take no account of locally implemented proposals or policy changes. However, they do offer an insight into how household change may occur within Tees Valley. The 2011 household survey has established the tenure profile of households by age group of household reference person in 2011. Assuming the proportions of households in particular tenures by age group stay the same, it is possible to estimate likely household change broken down by open market and affordable tenures. This is helpful in gauging the likely proportions requiring different tenure options. 4.83 Detailed analysis is presented in Technical Appendix C and is summarised in Table 4.11. In summary, analysis suggests:  The total number of households is expected to increase by 25,000 across the TV4 area and half of this increase will be in Stockton on Tees (attributed to arc4 72 Tees Valley 2012 Strategic Housing Assessment Final Report

population projections, that feed into the household projections, being trend- based and Stockton had higher net inward migration than the other districts);  Most of this increase (20,000) will be from households with a HRP aged 65 and over;  Analysis suggests an increase of 1,667 households each year across the TV4 area, with growth in demand for around 1150 for open market and around 500 affordable/intermediate tenure dwellings.

Table 4.11 Household change in TV4 area 2011-2026 Location Tenure

Household change Affordable/ 2011-26 Market Intermediate Total Hartlepool Total 2679 1321 4000 Annual 179 88 267 % 67.0 33.0 100

Middlesbrough Total 3631 1369 5000 Annual 242 91 333 % 72.6 27.4 100

Redcar and Cleveland Total 2691 1309 4000 Annual 179 87 267 % 67.3 32.7 100

Stockton on Tees Total 8778 3221 12000 Annual 585 215 800 % 73.2 26.8 100

TV4 Total 17779 7221 25000 Annual 1185 481 1667 % 71.1 28.9 100 Source: CLG 2008 Based Household Projections; 2011 household survey Data may not add up due to rounding

IMPORTANT NOTE: This table is based on CLG household projection data. These are trend based and do not reflect events caused by the volatility in the Housing Market over the last four years. It should also be strongly emphasised that the household projections are no more than a contributory factor in determining housing targets. Other factors include the deliverability of the infrastructure necessary to support new housing, economic growth trends and ensuring through the ‘duty to co-operate’ an equitable distribution of housing for the Tees Valley authorities. This is particularly important in a Tees Valley context because of migration trends which have seen a loss of population from Redcar and Cleveland and from Middlesbrough to Stockton-on-Tees.

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Population change 4.84 ONS 2008-based population projections predict a population in 2033 of 601,700 compared with 563,300 in 2011, an increase of 38,400 (6.8%) 4.85 Over the next few decades, the age profile of residents in the TV5 area is expected to change dramatically. The population is ageing and the proportion of households headed by an older person is likely to increase. In 2010, across the TV4 area around 94,000 residents were aged 65 or over (and of these 44,000 were aged 75 or over). ONS population projections suggest that the number of residents aged 65 or over will increase to 144,000 by 2033 (and of these 75,000 will be aged 75 or over). 4.86 By 2033, ONS population projections indicate that around 23.9% of residents will be aged 65 or over and 12.5% will be aged 75+ compared with 16.7% and 7.8% respectively in 2010.

Core Output 4: Current households in need

4.87 A robust and defensible assessment of housing need is essential for the development of affordable housing policies which need to be articulated in Local Development Frameworks. Housing need can be defined as: ‘The quantity of housing required for households who are unable to access suitable housing without financial assistance’. 4.88 The 2011 Household Survey and a range of secondary data provide the robust and transparent evidence base required to assess housing need across the TV4 area. This is presented in detail at Appendix D of this report and follows CLG modelling guidance. 4.89 Across the TV4 area, there are 18,320 existing households in need which represent 7.8% of all households. Reasons for housing need by local authority are summarised in Table 4.12.

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Table 4.12 Housing need in the TV4 area

No. Households Hartle Redcar & Stockton- Category Factor pool Middlesbrough Cleveland on-Tees Total Homeless N1 Under notice, real threat households of notice or lease coming to 266 886 602 511 2,264 or with an end insecure N2 Too expensive, and in tenure receipt of housing benefit or 611 513 789 800 2,714 in arrears due to expense Mismatch of N3 Overcrowded according housing to the 'bedroom standard' 417 423 1,049 863 2,752 need and model dwellings N4 Too difficult to maintain 847 725 1,314 1,311 4,197 N5 Couples, people with children and single adults over 25 sharing a kitchen, 430 481 202 556 1,669 bathroom or WC with another household N6 Household containing people with mobility impairment or other special 1,047 1,381 905 1,484 4,817 needs living in unsuitable accommodation Dwelling N7 Lacks a bathroom, amenities kitchen or inside WC and 65 48 0 25 138 and household does not have condition resource to make fit N8 Subject to major disrepair or unfitness and household 491 89 409 334 1,323 does not have resource to make fit Social needs N9 Harassment or threats of harassment from neighbours or others living in the vicinity 1,224 1,253 795 1,255 4,527 which cannot be resolved except through a move

Total no. households in need 4,326 4,549 4,095 5,350 18,320 Total Households 39,932 56,934 59,534 79,087 235,487 % households in need 10.8% 8.0% 6.9% 6.8% 7.8%

Note: A household may have more than one housing need. Source: 2011 Household Survey

4.90 Table 4.13 summarises overall housing need (before further analysis to test the extent to which households can afford open market provision to offset their need) by sub-area and the extent to which housing need varies across the TV4 area. The proportion of households in need is highest in the sub-areas of Hartlepool Town Centre (13.2%), Hartlepool Inner Suburbs (12.2%), Thornaby in Stockton-on-Tees (11.3%) and Middlesbrough North (10.3%)

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Table 4.13 Households in need by sub-area and local authority for the TV4 area

District Sub-areas No. H'holds % H'holds Total no. in need in need households Hartlepool Inner Suburbs 2048 12.2 16,791 Outer Suburbs 1063 8.0 13,233 Rural 72 5.8 1,244 Town Centre 1142 13.2 8,663 District Total 4325 10.8 39931 Middlesbrough East 1236 9.6 12,938 Greater Hemlington 319 8.2 3,867 North 1525 10.3 14,816 South 367 3.7 9,916 West 1101 7.2 15,397 District Total 4548 8.0 56934 Redcar & Brotton 151 5.0 3,006 Cleveland Greater Eston North 682 6.1 11,105 Greater Eston South 274 4.8 5,711 Guisborough 479 6.0 7,976 Loftus 174 6.2 2,810 Redcar 1803 9.0 19,961 Saltburn 133 4.7 2,801 Skelton 399 6.5 6,164 District Total 4095 6.9 59534 Stockton-on- Billingham 673 4.5 15,088 Tees Ingleby Barwick 247 3.4 7,285 Rural Areas 204 5.8 3,545 Stockton Inner Core 961 9.8 9,838 Stockton Outer Core 1650 6.5 25,194 Thornaby 1144 11.4 10,021 Yarm/Preston/Eaglescliffe 470 5.8 8,116 District Total 5349 6.8 79087 TV4 Total 18317 7.8 235,487 Source: 2011 Household Survey

4.91 Tables 4.14 and 4.15 demonstrate how the proportion of households in housing need varies by tenure and household type for the TV4 area. Private renters and social renters more likely to be in housing need; along with lone parents and couples with three or more children.

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Table 4.14 Housing need by tenure No. % Total no. Tenure H'holds H'holds households in need in need Owned (no mortgage) 2508 4.0 62,601 Owned (with mortgage) 4573 4.9 93,383 Rented Privately (furnished) 830 20.9 3,968 Rented Privately (unfurnished) 3338 18.9 17,639 Tied 119 20.3 586 Affordable (social rented and intermediate tenure) 6953 12.1 57312 Total 18321 7.8 235,487 Source: 2011 Household Survey

Table 4.15 Housing need by household type No. % Total no. Household Type H'holds H'holds households in need in need Single adult (under 60) 3408 7.6 45,093 Single adult (60 or over) 1101 4.3 25,785 Couple only (both under 60) 2393 6.2 38,723 Couple only (one or both over 60) 1447 5.9 24,483 Couple 1/2 child(ren) under 18 1611 4.6 35,385 Couple 3+ children under 18 1136 13.8 8,214 Couple with children aged 18+ 1416 6.3 22,365 Lone parent with 1/2 child(ren) under 18 2671 17.9 14,942 Lone parent with 3+ children under 18 634 24.5 2,588 Lone parent with children aged 18+ 1055 11.8 8,941 Other type of household 1447 16.1 8,794 Total 18319 7.8 235,487 Source: 2011 Household Survey

Hidden housing need 4.92 The household survey has identified a range of ‘hidden households’ who are generally adult children still living with the parent(s). Across Tees Valley, there are 31,305 households comprising a couple or lone parent with child(ren) aged 18+ (Hartlepool 5282, Middlesbrough 7685, Redcar and Cleveland 7,444 and Stockton on Tees 10,894).

Core Output 5: Future households requiring affordable housing

4.93 Various assumptions regarding the rate of household formation can be derived from a number of sources. These are explored in detail at Appendix D but in summary the study is assuming a baseline household formation rate of 1,884 arc4 77 Tees Valley 2012 Strategic Housing Assessment Final Report

households each year (Hartlepool 319, Middlesbrough 455, Redcar and Cleveland 476 and Stockton on Tees 633). This is based on CLG household projections for the period 2008-2013 which indicate an overall increase of 11,000 households over the period from 278,000 in 2008 to 289,000 in 2013 (or 0.8% each year). Analysis of median market prices relative to the income/savings of households expecting to form in the next five years indicates that 86.6% could not afford median house prices or private sector rents (1,632 households). 4.94 Further details of modelling affordable housing requirements is presented in Appendix D.

Core Output 6: Future households requiring market housing

4.95 The 2011 Household Survey provides a range of valuable evidence on general market requirements. The majority of households (around 75.7% or 178,200) live in open market property and overall demand for market accommodation is mainly from households moving with the TV4 area. 4.96 Turnover rates derived from the household survey suggest that around 9,700 market dwellings become available across the TV4 area each year. This is based on the level of turnover in the preceding three years. Of the 9,700 properties, 5,340 are owner occupied and 4,330 are private rented dwellings. Table 4.16 presents this information for each local authority district

Table 4.16 Annual turnover rates in open market dwellings by Local Authority District

Open Market Tenure Annual District Turnover Owner Private Occupied rented Total Hartlepool 827 839 1666 Middlesbrough 921 898 1819 Redcar and Cleveland 1280 1021 2301 Stockton on Tees 2309 1600 3909 TV4 5337 4359 9696 Source: 2011 Household Survey

4.97 An alternative estimate of turnover can be derived from Land Registry sales data. This indicates that across the TV4 area an annual average of 5,870 dwellings have been sold (based on a three-year average for 2008, 2009 and 2010)20. These are most likely to be sold for owner occupation, but some will

20 CLG Housing Market Statistics Table 588 Property sales based on Land Registry data arc4 78 Tees Valley 2012 Strategic Housing Assessment Final Report

have been purchased for renting, although precise numbers cannot be ascertained from the data available from Land Registry. 4.98 National turnover data derived from the English Housing Survey (2008/9) indicates annual turnover rates of 3.6% for owner occupiers, 36.5% for private renters and 9.3% for all households living on the open market. This compares with 3.4% for owner occupiers in the TV4 area, 19.6% for private renters and 5.4% for all open market households. Therefore, compared with national data, turnover is lower overall. 4.99 Around 18,360 existing households are intending to move in the open market on an annual basis over the next five years within the TV4 area. Figure 4.6 indicates that the households most likely to be moving in the open market are couples under 60 (with no children), couples with children and singles under 60.

Figure 4.6 Types of household intending to move in the open market in the next five years across the TV4 area

Source: 2011 Household Survey

4.100 Households intending to move in the open market were asked what type and size of property they would like and expect to move to (Table 4.17). Of households moving, most would like to move to a house (79.8%), 18.2% would like to move to a bungalow and 2% to a flat. This compares with 81.2% who expect to move to a house, 15.9% to a bungalow and 2.8 to % a flat. Although households are expecting to broadly achieve their aspirations, a higher proportion would like to move to a detached house (59.6%) but only 34.4% expect to. In contrast, higher proportions expect to move to a semi-detached house (38.7%) than would prefer to (17.3%). arc4 79 Tees Valley 2012 Strategic Housing Assessment Final Report

4.101 In terms of property size, the majority of respondents expect to move to a property with two (19%), three (54.1%) or four or more (25.8%) bedrooms. A higher proportion of households would like a property with four or more bedrooms (42.9%).

Table 4.17 Market preferences of existing households planning to move What households moving would like Property Type (total %) Semi- Large Small No. Detached detached terraced terraced Bedrooms house house house house Flat Bungalow Total One 0.0 0.3 0.3 Two 2.3 1.0 0.6 2.0 7.9 13.8 Three 19.0 13.0 2.2 0.1 8.7 43.0 Four 30.2 3.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.1 34.5 Five or more 8.0 0.3 0.0 0.1 8.4 Total 59.6 17.3 2.4 0.6 2.0 18.2 100.0 Base: 18,360 households planning to move in the next 5 years (within TV4 area)

What households moving expect to move to Property Type (total %) Semi- Large Small No. Detached detached terraced terraced Bedrooms house house house house Flat Bungalow Total One 0.1 0.5 0.4 1.0 Two 1.0 4.5 0.3 2.4 2.3 8.6 19.0 Three 13.1 29.1 4.3 1.1 0.1 6.4 54.1 Four 17.9 4.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 23.1 Five or more 2.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 2.7 Total 34.4 38.7 4.7 3.5 2.8 15.9 100.0 Base: 18,360 households planning to move in the next 5 years (within TV4 area)

Source: 2011 Household Survey

4.102 Table 4.18 provides further details on the range of expectations household have for particular property types and sizes by household type. Table 4.18 provides a useful review of how market demand varies by household type. The table shows the percentage of households by household type who expect to move to a particular property type and size. Data indicates that:  Houses remain the most popular choice of most households (except for older singles and couples), particularly detached and semi-detached properties with two, three and four bedrooms;  A reasonable proportion of older single people (19.4%) expect to move into flats;  There is a strong expectation of moving to bungalows amongst older person households (mentioned by 65% of older singles and 78.2% of older couples);

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 The number of bedrooms expected does not necessarily relate to household size, with 56.3% of singles under 60 and 64.1% of couples (no children) expecting to move to a three bedroom property. Overall:  one bedroom properties were mainly expected to be moved to by older singles;  two bedroom properties were mainly expected to be moved to by singles, couples over 60, lone parents (with 1 or 2 children) and other household types;  three bedrooms were mainly expected to be moved to by singles under 60, couples with no children, by couples, couples with no children, couples with one or two children and lone parents;  four or more bedrooms were mainly expected to be moved to by couples and lone parents with three or more children.

Table 4.18a Property type and size expectations by household type Household type - considered property type and size % Couple Couple Property Type Single only only adult Single (both (one or Couple Couple under adult 60 under both (1/2 (3+ 60 or over 60) over 60) child(ren)) children) Detached house 22.2 6.6 37.9 6.3 51.7 41.8 Semi-detached house 36.0 5.0 39.6 7.8 47.1 44.9 Large terraced house 13.4 0.8 5.6 0.0 0.6 0.0 Small terraced house 8.6 3.2 2.0 1.5 0.3 0.0 Flat - ground floor 1.5 17.5 0.0 4.4 0.0 0.0 Flat - above ground floor 6.3 1.9 1.8 1.8 0.0 1.1 Detached bungalow 0.4 47.5 7.7 31.7 0.3 12.2 Semi-detached bungalow 8.4 15.4 5.3 43.9 0.0 0.0 Terraced bungalow 3.1 2.1 0.0 2.6 0.0 0.0 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 No. Bedrooms One 2.4 21.2 0.5 0.7 0.0 0.0 Two 33.8 56.0 19.8 57.5 0.0 0.0 Three 53.6 22.3 64.1 40.5 49.5 18.9 Four 5.8 0.5 15.4 1.3 45.6 71.0 Five or more 4.4 0.0 0.2 0.0 4.8 10.1 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Base 2844 377 4974 856 4561 845 Continued on next page

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Table 4.18b Property type and size preferences by household type (continued) Household type - considered property type and size % Lone Couple Lone Lone parent Property Type with parent parent with children with 1/2 with 3+ children Other type aged child(ren) children aged of 18+ under 18 under 18 18+ household Total Detached house 24.6 25.2 0.0 25.9 33.3 34.4 Semi-detached house 23.4 58.9 100.0 25.0 50.5 38.7 Large terraced house 6.3 0.0 0.0 12.4 0.0 4.7 Small terraced house 0.0 9.7 0.0 23.9 0.0 3.5 Flat - ground floor 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 Flat - above ground floor 0.0 6.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.0 Detached bungalow 18.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 6.5 7.1 Semi-detached bungalow 26.9 0.0 0.0 12.4 8.8 8.1 Terraced bungalow 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.7 Total 2846 377 4975 857 4561 844 No. Bedrooms One 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 Two 19.2 23.2 0.0 24.9 22.7 19.0 Three 63.6 60.5 0.0 69.2 46.1 54.2 Four 17.2 13.3 100.0 6.0 25.3 23.1 Five or more 0.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 5.9 2.7 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Base 1637 1180 22 587 475 18358 Source: 2011 Household Survey

4.103 Table 4.19 considers the expectations of newly-forming households by considering the range of dwellings newly-forming households have moved to in the past five years. This shows a particular flow of newly-forming households into terraced and semi-detached houses; and mainly into two and three bedroom dwellings.

Table 4.19 Household expectations (newly-forming households) Property type Bedrooms Four or One Two Three more Total Detached house 1.4 2.4 4.5 8.3 Semi-detached house 0.0 13.4 17.9 0.5 31.8 Terraced house 12.8 14.6 0.9 28.4 Bungalow 0.8 1.5 0.2 0.2 2.7 Maisonette 1.5 1.5 Flat/apartment 15.6 11.6 27.2 Total 17.9 40.7 35.1 6.2 100.0 Base: 9455 newly-formed households Source: 2011 Household Survey

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Core Output 7: Size of affordable housing required

4.104 A detailed analysis of the following factors determines overall affordable housing requirements:  Households currently in housing which is unsuitable for their use and who are unable to afford to buy or rent in the market (backlog need);  New households forming who cannot afford to buy or rent in the market;  Existing households expected to fall into need;  The supply of affordable housing through social renting and intermediate tenure stock. 4.105 The needs assessment model advocated by the CLG has been used and detailed analysis of each stage of the model is presented at Appendix D. 4.106 In addition to establishing the overall affordable housing requirements, analysis considers the supply/demand variations by district, sub-area, property designation (i.e. general needs and older person) and property size (number of bedrooms). Analysis provides a gross figure (absolute shortfalls in affordable provision) and a net figure (which takes into account surplus accommodation relative to need). Modelling suggests a net shortfall of 936 and a gross shortfall of 1562 affordable dwellings each year across the TV4 area as shown in Tables 4.20 (Local Authority) and Table 4.21 (sub-area). If expected affordable newbuild is factored into the model (based on average delivery of affordable housing over the period 2007/8 to 2010/11), the net shortfall reduces to 805 and the gross shortfall to 1,015. Modelling assumes a local household formation rate of 0.8% of total households. These net and gross shortfalls are markedly lower than previous SHMA estimates mainly due to a lower household formation rate being applied to the model. 4.107 It should also be noted that the last few years has been a time of marked slowdown in housing market activity and a time of increasing economic uncertainty. Furthermore, the ability of households to access mortgage finance is a critical consideration in looking at overall affordable housing need in the short- term. The current affordable need estimates are based on CLG SHMA guidance modelling but may be higher as they are simply based on an income multiplier/access to equity and not on the ability to actually access a mortgage.

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Table 4.20 Net and gross annual affordable housing requirements by District, property size and designation 2012/13 to 2016/17 NET District General Older Smaller 1/2 Larger 3+ 1/2 bedroom bedroom bedrooom TOTAL Hartlepool 103 -43 29 89 Middlesbrough 218 -43 15 190 Redcar and Cleveland 192 -99 4 97 Stockton on Tees 466 48 46 560 TV4 979 -137 94 936

GROSS District General Older Smaller 1/2 Larger 3+ 1/2 bedroom bedroom bedrooom TOTAL Hartlepool 275 12 33 320 Middlesbrough 259 35 17 311 Redcar and Cleveland 281 25 12 318 Stockton on Tees 510 57 46 613 TV4 1325 129 108 1562 Sources: 2011 Household Survey; RSL CORE Lettings and Sales

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Table 4.21a Net annual affordable housing requirements by sub-area, property size and designation 2012/13 to 2016/17.

District Sub-area General Older Smaller 1/2 Larger 3+ 1/2 bedroom bedroom bedrooom TOTAL Hartlepool Inner Suburbs -172 -34 26 -180 Outer Suburbs 90 -4 -5 81 Rural 13 12 1 27 Town Centre 172 -18 6 160 Middlesbrough East -28 -30 2 -56 Greater Hemlington -14 -24 -1 -39 North 66 -24 -1 41 South 62 6 3 72 West 131 29 12 171 Redcar and Brotton 17 4 -1 21 Cleveland Greater Eston North -89 -96 -1 -186 Greater Eston South 18 -23 -3 -9 Guisborough 57 -3 4 57 Loftus 17 -1 1 18 Redcar 110 6 7 122 Saltburn 17 4 0 21 Skelton 45 11 -3 53 Stockton on Tees Billingham 102 4 12 118 Ingleby Barwick 71 8 2 81 Rural Areas 29 2 2 33 Stockton Inner Core -44 -9 12 -41 Stockton Outer Core 189 10 11 210 Thornaby 30 31 1 62 Yarm, Preston, Eaglescliffe 89 2 6 97 Total TV4 979 -137 94 936 Sources: 2011 Household Survey; RSL CORE Lettings and Sales NOTE sum rows/columns may appear not add up correctly due to rounding

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Table 4.21b Gross annual affordable housing requirements by sub-area, property size and designation 2012/13 to 2016/17 District Sub-area General Older Smaller Larger 1/2 3+ 1/2 bedroom bedroom bedrooom TOTAL Hartlepool Inner Suburbs 26 26 Outer Suburbs 90 90 Rural 13 12 1 27 Town Centre 172 6 178 Middlesbrough East 2 2 Greater Hemlington 0 North 66 66 South 62 6 3 72 West 131 29 12 171 Redcar and Brotton 17 4 22 Cleveland Greater Eston North 0 Greater Eston South 18 18 Guisborough 57 4 60 Loftus 17 1 19 Redcar 110 6 7 122 Saltburn 17 4 0 21 Skelton 45 11 56 Stockton on Tees Billingham 102 4 12 118 Ingleby Barwick 71 8 2 81 Rural Areas 29 2 2 33 Stockton Inner Core 12 12 Stockton Outer Core 189 10 11 210 Thornaby 30 31 1 62 Yarm, Preston, Eaglescliffe 89 2 6 97 Total TV4 1324 129 109 1562 NOTE sum rows/columns may appear not add up correctly due to rounding

Comparison with previous SHMA 4.108 The Net shortfall of 936 is considerably lower than the figure derived in the previous 2008 SHMA update. Table 4.22 explores the outputs for key steps and stages to explain this variation. The principal reason for the variation the use of a lower household formation rate of 0.8% based on data produced by Tees Valley Unlimited compared with the national average of 1.7%.

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Table 4.22 Comparison between 2008 SHMA update and 2012 modelling Stage and Step 2008 2012 Variance Comment Stage 1 Much higher in 2011 (partic in affordable sector and ability to access open market dwellings 1.4 Total Need 13533 18321 4788 has reduced) 1.4A Cannot afford open market prices/rents 9770 12873 3103 Based on median prices

Stage 2 Lower local rate of 0.08% rather 2.1 New h'hold formation 3956 1884 -2072 than 1.7% national estimate Based on relative affordability 2.2 New H'holds requiring affordable 2241 1632 -609 using household survey data 2.3 Existing households falling into need 805 599 -206 Reduction in number

Stage 3 3.1 Affordable occupied by hh in need 4187 6953 2766 Much higher in 2011 3.8 Affordable supply 2675 2562 -113 Slight reduction

Stage 4 4.1 Total backlog 5583 5830 247 Similar to 2008 4.3 Annual reduction (20%) 1117 1166 49 Similar to 2008 Assuming lower rate of household formation compared 4.4 Newly arising need 3047 2231 -816 with 2008 Reduced due to lower household formation rate 4.5 Total annual need 4164 3397 -767 assumptions 4.6 Annual social rented capacity 2550 2462 -88 Similar Reduction mainly due to lower household formation rate 4.7 NET REQUIREMENT 1614 936 678 assumptions

Policy recommendations 4.109 The SHMA has provided net and gross affordable requirement figures based on the CLG housing needs assessment model. In terms of implications for the scale and type of affordable housing to be delivered, Table 4.23 considers the overall gross shortfalls by district and applies the gross proportions to the net shortfall figure. This helps to determine the relative housing shortfall by basing analysis on the overall (gross) shortfalls but applied to a baseline net figure which takes account of existing affordable housing capacity.

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Table 4.23 Affordable shortfalls by district GROSS % District General Older Requirements Smaller 1/2 Larger 3+ 1/2 bedroom bedroom bedrooom TOTAL Gross Net Hartlepool 85.8 3.8 10.4 100.0 320 88 Middlesbrough 83.3 11.3 5.4 100.0 311 190 Redcar and Cleveland 88.5 7.8 3.8 100.0 317 97 Stockton on Tees 83.1 9.3 7.6 100.0 613 560 TV4 84.8 8.3 7.0 100.0 1562 936

Policy recommendation District General Older Smaller 1/2 Larger 3+ 1/2 bedroom bedroom bedrooom TOTAL Hartlepool 76 3 9 89 Middlesbrough 158 21 10 190 Redcar and Cleveland 86 8 4 97 Stockton on Tees 466 52 43 560 TV4 794 77 65 936 4.110 The method for calculating affordable requirements is explored in full in Technical Appendix D.

Tenure split 4.111 In terms of the split between social rented and intermediate tenure products, the household survey identified tenure preferences of existing and newly-forming households and also the extent to which intermediate tenure products could be afforded. 4.112 Table 4.24 indicates that existing households in need mainly considered social renting as a preferred tenure option but newly-forming households had a much stronger preference for intermediate tenure options.

Table 4.24 Tenure preferences of existing households in need and newly- forming households requiring affordable housing

Existing households Newly-forming Tenure in need households Total Affordable (Social) Rent 95.7 50.9 69.6 Intermediate Tenure 4.3 49.1 30.4 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 Base (annual requirement) 1166 1632 2798

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Overall, analysis would suggest a tenure split of 70% affordable rent and 30% intermediate tenure based on household preferences.

Property type preferences 4.113 Analysis of property type preferences (Table 4.25) suggests that, primarily, delivery of houses is a priority (with 65.1% stating an expectation of moving to a house), followed by flats (27.1%) and bungalows (7.8%).

Table 4.25 Property type preferences Newly- Existing forming Total Type preferences (%) (%) (%) Detached 10.6 8.3 9.3 Semi-detached 28.7 31.8 30.5 Terraced 18.9 28.4 24.5 Flat 21.5 28.8 25.8 Bungalow 20.2 2.7 10.0 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 Base (annual requirement) 1166 1632 2344 Based on expectations of existing households in need and what newly-formed households have moved to in the past 5 years Source: 2011 household survey

The new delivery model for affordable housing

Overview 4.114 The Coalition Government has announced a new delivery model for affordable housing. Affordable rent will be the main type of new affordable supply and in addition Registered Providers will be encouraged to convert a proportion of social rented properties at Affordable Rent at re-let. The principal aim of the new model is to use the new Affordable Rent product, together with new flexibilities on the use of existing assets, to generate additional financial capacity to support new supply. 4.115 Affordable Rented homes will be made available to tenants at up to a maximum of 80% of market rents and allocated in the same way as social housing is at present. Landlords will have the freedom to offer Affordable Rent properties on flexible tenancies tailored to the housing needs of individual households. The government has introduced a series of other measures such as changes to tenure (no longer a requirement to offer lifetime tenancies, flexibility to offer shorter terms with a minimum of two years); greater flexibility for local authorities

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in their strategic housing role and options to increase mobility for social tenants21. 4.116 The potential impact of affordable rent on the relative affordability of rental options is explored in Table 4.26. This considers the affordability of different rental prices on the basis of household income and assumes a property is not affordable if the rent is at least 25% of household income. The analysis demonstrates that across the TV4 area, 59.7% could not afford social rents on the basis of income alone. This increases to 67.4% for rents charged at 80% of private sector rents (or a 7.7% increase). For individual districts, this increase is 2.4% in Hartlepool, 8% in Middlesbrough, 11.7% in Redcar and Cleveland and 7.7% in Stockton on Tees. Therefore, an increase in rents coupled with likely changes in welfare benefits will have a detrimental impact on affordability.

Table 4.26 Relative affordability of renting options

Affordability of Private Affordability of 80% of District Affordability of Social Rent Rent Private Rent Base % % % % Can Cannot % Can Cannot % Can Cannot Afford Afford Total Afford Afford Total Afford Afford Total Hartlepool 32.4 67.6 100.0 25.3 74.7 100.0 30.1 69.9 100.0 4327 Middlesbrough 39.4 60.6 100.0 31.7 68.3 100.0 31.5 68.5 100.0 4549 Redcar and Cleveland 46.2 53.8 100.0 25.7 74.3 100.0 34.5 65.5 100.0 4095 Stockton-on-Tees 42.9 57.1 100.0 31.1 68.9 100.0 34.2 65.8 100.0 5351 TV4 40.3 59.7 100.0 28.7 71.3 100.0 32.6 67.4 100.0 18321 Source: 2011 RSL rents; 2011 Private sector rents

Core Output 8: Estimates of household groups who have particular housing requirements

Introduction 4.117 There is a range of household groups who have particular housing requirements. The evidence presented at Appendix E focuses on families, older people, homeless households and support issues.

Families 4.118 Families (that is couples and lone parents with children) account for around 26.5% of households across the TV4 area A further 13.3% were couples and lone parents with adult children (aged 18 or over) living with them. 4.119 Analysis of market preferences (Table 4.17) suggests that:

21 Homes and Communities Agency website

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 Most couples with children and lone parent families were preferring to move to a house, particularly detached and semi-detached). Couples with children were most likely to prefer properties with three or four bedrooms, with couples with three or more children most likely to expect a four bedroom property; most lone parents expect to move to a three bedroom property;  Couples and lone parents with adult children living at home had strong expectations of moving to houses (detached and particularly semi-detached houses) and bungalows; a range of property sizes were expected to be moved to, most notably three and four bedroom properties. 4.120 In terms of housing need (Table 4.15), compared with the overall proportion of households in need of 7.8%: couples with three or more children were more likely to be in housing need (13.8%) along with 24.52% of lone parents with three or more children. Modelling of affordable housing requirements suggests that a range of affordable dwellings are required which will help to address the needs of families. It is important that particular care is taken to ensure that properties are built to reflect the demand from families and in the interests of long-term community sustainability.

Older people 4.121 A major strategic challenge for the Tees Valley Councils is to ensure a range of appropriate housing provision, adaptation and support for the Tees Valley’s growing older population. The number of people across the TV4 area aged 65 or over is projected to increase by 53.2% from 94,000 in 2010 to 144,000 by 2033. 4.122 The majority of older people (62.2%) want to stay in their own homes with help and support when needed and the vast majority are owner occupiers. There is a degree of interest in a variety of older persons’ accommodation (Table 4.27), with 20.5 % interested in renting sheltered accommodation, 15.4% renting extra care accommodation; a further 27.7% would consider renting from a housing association and 17.5% buying on the open market. This evidence suggests a need to continue to diversify the range of older persons’ housing provision. Additionally, providing a wider range of older persons’ accommodation has the potential to free-up larger family accommodation.

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Table 4.27 Older persons’ housing options

Housing Option No. of responses % of households* Continue to live in current home with support when needed 66507 62.2 Buying a property on the open market 18723 17.5 Rent a property from a private landlord 7640 7.1 Rent from Council / Housing Association 29611 27.7 Rent Sheltered accommodation 21910 20.5 Buy Sheltered accommodation 10371 9.7 Part rent & buy Sheltered accommodation 5758 5.4 Rent Extra Care Housing 16500 15.4 Buy Extra Care Housing 6586 6.2 Part rent & buy Extra Care Housing 3427 3.2 Residential care home 3647 3.4 Co-housing 9405 8.8 Base (no. of valid respondents) 107,000 *Percentages don't add up to 100 as respondents could select more than one option Source: 2011 Household Survey

4.123 Table 4.28 considers the range of help and assistance older person households need either now or in the next five years. Particularly noted is the need for help with gardening (38.1%), repair/maintenance (36.5%) and help with cleaning (27.3%).

Table 4.28 Type of assistance required either now or in next 5 years amongst older person households Redcar and Stockton-on- Support Required Hartlepool Middlesbrough Cleveland Tees Total Number % Number % Number % Number % Number % Help with repair and maintenance of home 3361 34.1 5313 40.6 5087 33.8 6489 37.0 20252 36.5 Help with gardening 3676 37.3 5187 39.7 5466 36.3 6815 38.8 21144 38.1 Help with cleaning home 2891 29.4 3921 30.0 3741 24.8 4606 26.2 15159 27.3 Help with other practical tasks 2392 24.3 3097 23.7 3434 22.8 4013 22.9 12937 23.3 Help with personal care 1648 16.7 1966 15.0 2271 15.1 2233 12.7 8119 14.6 Want company/friendship 843 8.6 1253 9.6 1462 9.7 1586 9.0 5143 9.3 Base (Total older person households) 9847 100.0 13074 100.0 15068 100.0 17548 100.0 55536 100.0 Source: 2011 Household Survey

4.124 In terms of adaptations, amongst older person households (Table 4.29), most frequently mentioned was the need for bathroom adaptations (by 15.6% of older person households), better heating (12%) and the need for internal handrails (9.8%). Resources for aids and adaptations remain tight, particularly for households in the private sector. Alternative sources of funding, such as equity loans, should be considered to finance remedial measures required by older person households.

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Table 4.29 Adaptations required either now or in next 5 years amongst older person households

Adaptations Required Redcar and Stockton-on- Hartlepool Middlesbrough Cleveland Tees Total Number % Number % Number % Number % Number % To bathrooms 1715 17.4 2110 16.1 2075 13.8 2745 15.6 8645 15.6 Better heating 1340 13.6 1664 12.7 1697 11.3 1956 11.1 6657 12.0 Internal handrails 881 9.0 1424 10.9 1354 9.0 1784 10.2 5444 9.8 Double glazing 1037 10.5 849 6.5 1025 6.8 1819 10.4 4730 8.5 Stairlift 765 7.8 1070 8.2 1005 6.7 1245 7.1 4086 7.4 More Insulation 574 5.8 936 7.2 1312 8.7 1114 6.3 3936 7.1 Downstairs WC 726 7.4 981 7.5 736 4.9 1322 7.5 3765 6.8 External handrails 549 5.6 742 5.7 979 6.5 1316 7.5 3586 6.5 Security alarm 728 7.4 868 6.6 864 5.7 998 5.7 3458 6.2 Community alarm 724 7.4 768 5.9 884 5.9 884 5.0 3260 5.9 To kitchen 459 4.7 501 3.8 563 3.7 766 4.4 2289 4.1 Wheelchair access 272 2.8 499 3.8 511 3.4 670 3.8 1952 3.5 Improved access 297 3.0 458 3.5 533 3.5 522 3.0 1810 3.3 Room for a carer 231 2.3 403 3.1 333 2.2 422 2.4 1389 2.5 Increase size of property 165 1.7 290 2.2 266 1.8 405 2.3 1125 2.0 Lever door handles 272 2.8 258 2.0 251 1.7 277 1.6 1059 1.9 Base (Total Older Person Households) 9847 100.0 13074 100.0 15068 100.0 17548 100.0 55536 100.0 Source: 2011 Household Survey

General support requirements 4.125 The 2011 Household Survey also provided evidence of the need for particular adaptations across all households (Table 4.30). Particularly noted are better heating (15.5%), more insulation (14.4%) and double glazing (13.3%). Overall, 7.8% of all properties across the TV4 area had been adapted or purpose built for a person with a long-term illness, health problem or disability. A further 8.1% of households across the TV4 area said they required care or support to enable them to stay in their current home. 61.5% of households stated that there was sufficient space for a carer to stay overnight if this was needed – across the affordable (social) rented sector this fell to 41.5%.

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Table 4.30 Adaptations required either now or in next 5 years across all households Redcar & Stockton-on- Adaptations Required Hartlepool Middlesbrough Total Cleveland Tees Number % Number % Number % Number % Number % Better heating 6,180 15.5 9,045 16 8,936 15.0 12,394 15.7 36,556 15.5 More Insulation 5,241 13.1 8,159 14 8,204 13.8 12,252 15.5 33,856 14.4 Double glazing 5,805 14.5 6,171 11 7,258 12.2 12,085 15.3 31,319 13.3 To kitchen 2,298 5.8 3,094 5 2,605 4.4 3,958 5.0 11,955 5.1 To bathrooms 3,674 9.2 5,890 10 4,478 7.5 6,952 8.8 20,995 8.9 Internal handrails 1,967 4.9 3,444 6 3,333 5.6 3,993 5.0 12,737 5.4 External handrails 1,208 3.0 2,076 4 2,482 4.2 3,235 4.1 9,001 3.8 Downstairs WC 2,356 5.9 3,264 6 2,209 3.7 3,745 4.7 11,574 4.9 Stairlift 1,673 4.2 2,912 5 2,389 4.0 3,244 4.1 10,219 4.3 Improved access 869 2.2 1,791 3 1,618 2.7 2,109 2.7 6,388 2.7 Wheelchair access 870 2.2 1,472 3 1,304 2.2 1,878 2.4 5,524 2.3 Lever door handles 725 1.8 1,355 2 858 1.4 1,482 1.9 4,421 1.9 Room for a carer 703 1.8 1,386 2 957 1.6 1,959 2.5 5,004 2.1 Community alarm 1,665 4.2 2,216 4 1,390 2.3 2,297 2.9 7,568 3.2 Security alarm 3,176 8.0 5,495 10 3,757 6.3 5,847 7.4 18,275 7.8 Increase size of property 2,693 6.7 5,085 9 4,402 7.4 6,819 8.6 19,000 8.1 Base (Total Households) 39,932 100.0 56,934 100 59,534 100.0 79,087 100.0 235,487 100.0 Source: 2011 Household Survey

4.126 The household survey also provides information on the need for other forms of assistance, highlighting the particular need for help with repair and maintenance of the home (Table 4.31) across all households. This provides valuable evidence of the need for a service to support people through the process of installing adaptations and the removal of Housing Health and Safety Rating System Category 1 hazards in private dwellings.

Table 4.31 Type of assistance required either now or in next 5 years across all households

Support required Hartlepool Middlesbrough Redcar & Cleveland Stockton-on-Tees Total

Number % Numbe % Number % Number % Number % Help with repair and r 9,680 24.2 17,096 30.0 13,962 23.5 18,110 22.9 58,848 25.0 maintenance of home Help with gardening 6,519 16.3 11,150 19.6 10,014 16.8 12,512 15.8 40,194 17.1 Help with cleaning home 5,631 14.1 8,216 14.4 7,095 11.9 8,265 10.5 29,208 12.4 Help with other practical taks 4,858 12.2 7,608 13.4 6,495 10.9 7,172 9.1 26,133 11.1 Help with personal care 4,300 10.8 5,223 9.2 5,390 9.1 5,188 6.6 20,101 8.5 Want company / friendship 2,416 6.1 4,212 7.4 3,768 6.3 4,822 6.1 15,218 6.5 Base (Total Households) 39,932 100.0 56,934 100.0 59,534 100.0 79,087 100.0 235,487 100.0 Source: 2011 Household Survey

Specialist support requirements 4.127 The Supporting People team have a particular responsibility to ensure that there is adequate accommodation and support provision for a range of specialist client arc4 94 Tees Valley 2012 Strategic Housing Assessment Final Report

requirements e.g. domestic violence, HIV/Aids, Offending/Ex-Offending and Teenage Pregnancy. 4.128 Table 4.32 summarises the type of client groups accommodated in social rented housing across the TV4 area by Local Authority District over the three year period 2008/9 to 2009/10 and 2010/1. Data indicates that a range of groups are accommodated in RSL specialist provision, most notably older people with support needs, single homeless people with support needs, people with mental health problems and women at risk of domestic violence.

Table 4.32 Client groups accommodated in social rented sector in the TV4 area 2008/9 to 2010/11 Client group District Redcar & Stockton- Hartlepool Middlesbrough Cleveland on-Tees Total People with physical or sensory disabilities 2 25 0 24 51 People with learning disabilities 9 33 13 26 81 People with mental health problems 7 470 0 16 493 People with drug problems 0 184 0 11 195 Offenders and people at risk of offending 33 73 0 0 106 Women at risk of domestic violence 99 135 156 67 457 Older people with support needs 879 843 266 409 2397 Single homeless people with support needs 107 306 88 5 506 Homeless families with support needs 0 60 15 3 78 Young people leaving care 21 9 0 48 78 Young people at risk 58 30 0 18 106 Teenage parents 29 2 0 0 31 Total 1244 2170 538 627 4579 Source: Supported CORE lettings data

Homeless households 4.129 Homelessness statistics for 2010/1122 indicate that a total of 451 decisions were made on households declaring themselves as homeless across the TV4 area (Table 4.33). Of these households, 185 were classified as homeless and in priority need. Over the three years 2008/9, 2009/10 and 2010/11, an average of 499 decisions have been made across the TV4 area and 284 households have been declared as homeless and in priority need.

22 CLG Homeless Statistics Table 627: Local Authorities' action under the homelessness provisions of the 1985 and 1996 Housing Acts, by district arc4 95 Tees Valley 2012 Strategic Housing Assessment Final Report

Table 4.33 Homeless decisions and acceptances 2008/9 to 2010/11 District 2008/09 2009-10 2001/11 Three year total Three year Average Accepted Accepted Accepted Accepted Accepted Decisions as Decisions as Decisions as Decisions as Decisions as made homeless made homeless made homeless made homeless made homeless Hartlepool 46 28 31 18 29 15 106 61 35 20 Middlesbrough 82 30 29 8 163 79 274 117 91 39 Redcar & Cleveland 77 55 65 21 35 11 177 87 59 29 Stockton-on-Tees 541 416 209 105 189 66 939 587 313 196 TV4 Total 746 529 334 152 416 171 1496 852 499 284 Source: CLG Homelessness Statistics

Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic households 4.130 The 2011 household survey indicates that 96.7% of Household Reference People describe themselves as ‘White British’ and 3.3% describe themselves as having other ethnicities. Asian/Asian British account for 1.4%, ‘Other White’ groups 1.2% and other ethnicities 0.8%. Table 4.34 summarises the proportions of households with a household reference person from White British and BAME groups by District.

Table 4.34 Ethnicity of household reference person by district Ethnicity District (%) White Other British Ethnicities Total Base Hartlepool 98.4 1.6 100.0 39932 Middlesbrough 93.4 6.6 100.0 56934 Redcar and Cleveland 98.4 1.6 100.0 59534 Stockton-on-Tees 96.9 3.1 100.0 79087 Total 96.7 3.3 100.0 235487 Source: 2011 household survey

4.131 The needs of Gypsies and Travellers have been assessed in a Tees Valley-wide study carried out by Salford University in 2009. This suggested additional pitch need arising from existing district-level Gypsy and Travelling Showpeople populations of 47 across the TV4 area over the period 2007-2026:  Hartlepool 6  Midddlesbrough 11  Redcar and Cleveland -4  Stockton-on-Tees 34 4.132 The report recommended that the authorities across the area engage proactively to meet the accommodation needs identified. arc4 96 Tees Valley 2012 Strategic Housing Assessment Final Report

5. Review of general market demand

5.1 Core outputs presented in Chapter 4 provided a range of information on the requirements for both market and affordable housing. The purpose of this chapter is to consolidate the key messages relating to market housing demand, show how the SHMA evidence base satisfies NPPF requirements and provides evidence to help the Council in deciding the scale of new build it should be planning for.

Overall dwelling requirements 5.2 There are a range of different methodologies which can be used to project the rate of household growth. These include the analysis of population and household projections but other factors such as deliverability constraints, economic growth aspirations and strategic policies also need to be taken into account. On balance, targets need to be set with the strategic vision of the Councils in mind, coupled with a realistic assessment of what is deliverable and over what timeframe. 5.3 The following table sets out local annual targets based on Core Strategy documents.

Table 5.1 Local annual housing delivery targets

Local Annual District Target Comments Source Gross Requirement Core Strategy Publication Hartlepool 360 2013-2027 of 5,400 Document Feb 2012 Gross Requirement Core Strategy Adopted Feb Middlesbrough 433 2004-2023 of 9,988 2008 Net Requirement Core Strategy Adopted July Redcar and Cleveland 282 2004-2021 of 4,800 2007 Core Strategy Development Net Requirement Plan Document Adopted Stockton-on-Tees 555 2004-2024 of 11,140 March 2010 TV4 1728

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Market housing: key issues 5.4 A range of material was presented in Chapter 4 relating to market housing. Key issues relating to market housing supply and demand are:  There is an annual supply of around 9,700 market dwellings of which 5,340 are owner occupied and 4,330 are private rented;  Across the TV4 area as a whole there is a general balance between supply and demand for market accommodation (Tables4.8A to D). There are some specific imbalances including:  Hartlepool: notable shortfall of detached houses in the inner suburbs and town centre and across the district generally; shortfall of terraced properties in the outer suburbs; and bungalows across most of the district; market in rural area most balanced in terms of supply meeting demand;  Middlesbrough: shortfall of detached across all sub-areas and bungalows in most, particularly the north and south sub-areas; shortfalls of larger properties (four or more bedrooms) and three bedroom properties across most sub-areas; market imbalances most apparent in Greater Hemlington, South and East sub-areas;  Redcar and Cleveland: market general balanced with the exception of Greater Eston South (with notable shortfalls of three, four + bedroom and most property types), Guisborough (notable shortfalls of 4+ bedroom and detached houses) and Loftus (shortfall of detached and most property sizes);  Stockton on Tees: Shortfall of bungalows across most of the district and 4+ bedroom and detached properties in the Inner Core, Outer Core and Thornaby areas. Markets less likely to be balanced in Billingham and Stockton Outer Core. 5.5 The aspirations and expectations of existing households planning to move in the next five years are presented in Table 4.17. Of households moving, most would like to move to a house (79.8%), 18.2% would like to move to a bungalow and 2% to a flat. This compares with 81.2% who expect to move to a house, 15.9% to a bungalow and 2.8 to % a flat. Although households are expecting to broadly achieve their aspirations, a higher proportion would like to move to a detached house (59.6%) but only 34.4% expect to. In contrast, higher proportions expect to move to a semi-detached house (38.7%) than would prefer to (17.3%). 5.6 Table 4.18 considers how expectations vary by household type and indicates that:  Houses remain the most popular choice of most households (except for older singles and couples), particularly detached and semi-detached properties with two, three and four bedrooms;  A reasonable proportion of older single people (19.4%) expect to move into flats;  There is a strong expectation of moving to bungalows amongst older person households (mentioned by 65% of older singles and 78.2% of older couples); arc4 98 Tees Valley 2012 Strategic Housing Assessment Final Report

 The number of bedrooms expected does not necessarily relate to household size, with 56.3% of singles under 60 and 64.1% of couples (no children) expecting to move to a three bedroom property. Overall:  one bedroom properties were mainly expected to be moved to by older singles;  two bedroom properties were mainly expected to be moved to by singles, couples over 60, lone parents (with 1 or 2 children) and other household types;  three bedrooms were mainly expected to be moved to by singles under 60, couples with no children, by couples, couples with no children, couples with one or two children and lone parents;  four or more bedrooms were mainly expected to be moved to by couples and lone parents with three or more children. 5.7 This evidence helps the TV4 Councils to ascertain the range of dwellings which should be developed within their districts to help address shortfalls in market requirements. If the broad expectations of households were translated into how future development should proceed, the following split between property types would be suggested:  Houses 81.3%  Bungalows 15.9%  Flats 2.8% 5.8 Councils should pay particular attention to Table 4.8, which reviewed general market supply and demand, to help in discussions with developers regarding the type and size of market housing to be delivered within individual Districts. 5.9 Decisions regarding the nature of future open market development should be informed by this evidence but also informed by the market intelligence of developers.

The likely overall proportions of households that require market or affordable housing 5.10 Having established a robust view on the annual imbalance between the supply and requirement for affordable housing, similar analysis has been carried out which considers open market demand relative to supply. 5.11 The scale of market demand has been estimated by considering demand:  From existing households who are planning to move in the open market within the TV4 area on an annual basis (based on households planning to move in the next five years);  From newly-forming households who can meet their needs in the market, based on the same affordability criterion as used for affordable housing requirements; and  From in-migrant households; the estimate is based on the actual numbers of such households over the previous five years, based on the survey evidence. arc4 99 Tees Valley 2012 Strategic Housing Assessment Final Report

5.12 The supply of open market dwellings can be derived from the household survey (imputed from length of residence information). 5.13 Modelling of open market demand would suggest that there is a general balance between demand and supply. A challenge for the Council and developers is to address identified shortfalls in provision. 5.14 Analysis of household projections can help to inform the proportion of households who require particular tenures. Table 5.2 summarises predicted household change based on CLG 2008-based household projections and assumes the tenure profile of households by age group of Household Reference Person remains constant over this period. Overall, analysis suggests around 70% of household growth should be accommodated in open market dwelling stock and 30% in affordable/intermediate tenure dwelling stock.

Table 5.2 Household change in TV4 area 2011-2026

Location Household Tenure change Affordable/ 2011-26 Market Intermediate Total Hartlepool Total 2679 1321 4000 Annual 179 88 267 % 67.0 33.0 100

Middlesbrough Total 3631 1369 5000 Annual 242 91 333 % 72.6 27.4 100

Redcar and Cleveland Total 2691 1309 4000 Annual 179 87 267 % 67.3 32.7 100

Stockton on Tees Total 8778 3221 12000 Annual 585 215 800 % 73.2 26.8 100

TV4 Total 17779 7221 25000 Annual 1185 481 1667 % 71.1 28.9 100 Source: CLG 2008 Based Household Projections; 2011 household survey IMPORTANT NOTE: This table is based on CLG household projection data. These are trend based and do not reflect events caused by the volatility in the Housing Market over the last four years. It should also be strongly emphasised that the household projections are no more than a contributory factor in determining housing targets. Other factors include the deliverability of the infrastructure necessary to support new housing, economic growth trends and ensuring through the ‘duty to co-operate’ an equitable distribution of housing for the Tees Valley authorities. This is particularly important in a Tees Valley context because of migration trends which have seen a loss of population from Redcar and Cleveland and from Middlesbrough to Stockton-on-Tees.

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5.15 It is important to reiterate that this analysis focuses on household numbers and these do not necessarily relate to dwelling targets. Similarly, existing capacity of market and affordable dwellings can help offset overall demand from household growth.

The likely profile of household types requiring market housing 5.16 Table 5.3 summarises the likely profile of household types requiring market housing. This is based on the number of households planning to move in the next five years. Households most likely to be moving in the open market are couples only (under 60), couples with children, couples (one or both over 60) and single adults under 60. 5.17 Further analysis of how market requirements vary by household type is presented in Table 4.18.

Table 5.3 Likely profile of household types requiring market housing Redcar & Stockton- Hartlepool Middlesbrough Total Household type Cleveland on-Tees (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) Single adult (under 60) 14.6 23.9 7.8 17.8 16.3 Single adult (60 or over) 0.7 4.1 3.1 0.9 2.0 Couple only (both under 60) 20.1 24.6 27.1 27.7 25.4 Couple only (one or both over 60) 3.4 4.4 4.4 3.7 3.9 Couple 1/2 child(ren) under 18 25.3 12.6 31.8 23.2 23.2 Couple 3+ children under 18 5.1 6.0 1.9 5.4 4.7 Couple with children aged 18+ 11.3 5.0 6.7 6.9 7.3 Lone parent with 1/2 child(ren) under 18 12.1 10.9 9.6 4.9 8.6 Lone parent with 3+ children under 18 0.0 2.1 2.0 2.8 1.9 Lone parent with children aged 18+ 4.1 2.4 4.6 4.2 3.9 Other type of household 3.3 4.0 0.9 2.6 2.7 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Base (Households requiring market housing each year) 938 1226 1058 1838 5060 Source: 2011 Household Survey

The size and type of affordable housing required 5.18 A full breakdown of the size of affordable housing required for both general needs and older people based on modelling in accordance with CLG guidance suggests a net shortfall of 936 (gross 1,562). These estimates are derived from a comprehensive analysis of affordable housing requirements presented at Appendix D. 5.19 The suggested profile of affordable dwelling stock by district is presented in Table 5.4 arc4 101 Tees Valley 2012 Strategic Housing Assessment Final Report

Table 5.4 Suggested profile of affordable dwelling stock District General Older Smaller 1/2 Larger 3+ 1/2 bedroom bedroom bedrooom TOTAL Hartlepool 76 3 9 89 Middlesbrough 158 21 10 190 Redcar and Cleveland 86 8 4 97 Stockton on Tees 466 52 42 560 TV4 794 77 65 936

5.20 Analysis suggests a tenure split of 70% social rented and 30% intermediate tenure. In terms of property type preferences of households in need and newly- forming households, analysis would suggest the following profile of property types:  64.3% houses;  25.8% flats; and  10% bungalows. 5.21 Further advice on policy considerations for affordable housing is presented at Appendix H.

Residents intending to leave Tees Valley 5.22 A total of 7,500 households were intending on moving away from Tees Valley in the next five years. Table 5.5 summarises their planned destinations. Overall, 42.5% were intending on moving into North Yorkshire, 10.5% to County Durham, 2.1% to Darlington, 39.3% to elsewhere in the UK and 5.7% outside the UK. 5.23 The main reasons for leaving were to move to a better neighbourhood/ more pleasant area (24.9%), to move to a larger property or one that was better in some way (14.1%), for work/new job (11.5%) and to move to a smaller property (12.4%). 5.24 Households intending to leave the TV4 area tended to have high incomes, with 60.1% having an income of at least £500 each week and 26.9% had an income in excess of £950 each week. As Table 5.6 shows, households expect to move to a range of property types, most notably detached and semi-detached houses with three or four bedrooms. Additionally, 12.3% of households were expecting to move to a bungalow, particularly those with two and three bedrooms.

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Table 5.5 Location preferences of households planning to move out of the TV4 area First choice destination Current Local Authority of residence (%) Redcar and Stockton- Hartlepool Middlesbrough Cleveland on-Tees Total Hambleton 6.1 14.5 13.4 4.6 10.1 Darlington 4.4 5.0 2.1 Elsewhere in County Durham 25.5 7.5 2.2 11.5 10.5 Elsewhere in North Yorkshire 19.8 38.7 47.3 20.4 32.4 Elsewhere in the UK 38.3 34.7 33.0 50.5 39.3 Outside the UK 5.9 4.6 4.1 8.0 5.7 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Base 1280 2417 1724 2078 7499

Table 5.6 Property type and size expectations of households planning to move out of the TV4 area Property No. Beds type Detached Semi-detached Terraced house house house Flat Bungalow Other Total One 0.5 1.4 0.5 2.5 Two 4.4 6.8 5.7 4.8 3.7 1.5 26.8 Three 15.2 16.0 4.2 0.9 7.4 43.6 Four 21.4 2.8 0.0 0.0 0.5 24.6 Five or more 2.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.4 Total 43.2 25.5 10.5 7.1 12.3 1.5 100.0 Base 7500

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6. Conclusion: policy and strategic issues

6.1 This document has been prepared to equip the Tees Valley authorities of Hartlepool, Middlesbrough, Redcar and Cleveland and Stockton-on-Tees and their partners with robust, defensible and transparent information to help inform strategic decision-making and the formulation of appropriate housing and planning policies. It has delivered core outputs required under the CLG Strategic Housing Market Assessment Guidance, which are underpinned by comprehensive technical appendices. 6.2 The work also takes account of the new National Planning Policy Framework which came into effect in March 2012. The SHMA will help local authorities plan for a mix of housing based on current and future demographic trends, market trends and the needs of different groups in the community. Specifically, the SHMA identifies the size, type and tenure of market housing required by sub- area by considering current market demand relative to supply; and also identifies a continued affordable housing requirement across the Tees Valley. 6.3 This concluding chapter summarises key messages from the research findings, structured around a commentary on the current and future housing markets; the interactions of the TV4 Authorities with other areas; and relates findings to key local and sub-regional strategic issues.

The current housing market 6.4 This study has provides up to date information on the housing stock in the District and how the stock profile varies by market area is presented in data tabulations and sub-area summaries accompanying this report. 6.5 Across the TV4 area there are a total of 247,661 dwellings of which 12,175 are vacant, resulting in a total of 235,486 occupied dwellings. Overall, across the TV4 area:  77.4% of properties are houses, 11.8% are flats/maisonettes, 10.3% are bungalows and 0.5% are other property types (e.g. caravans);  9.1% have one bedroom, 25.8% have two bedrooms, 47.4% have three bedrooms and 17.7% have four or more bedrooms;  9.7% of properties were built before 1919, a further 16.7% were built between 1919 and 1944, 24.1% between 1945 and 1964, 28% between 1965 and 1984 and 21.5% have been built since 1985;  66.2% of properties are owner-occupied, 22.6% are rented from a social landlord, 9.4% are private rented and 1.7% are intermediate tenure (e.g. shared ownership);

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Housing markets and mobility 6.6 A range of material has been gathered to help identify market drivers and the characteristics of housing market areas across the TV4 area and linkages with other areas. 6.7 An analysis of household mobility suggests that of households moving in the past 5 years, 88.8% of households move within the TV4 area 11.2% had moved into the area, have moved into the District, of whom 3% were from elsewhere in the North East, 2.8% from Yorkshire and the Humber, 5.2% from elsewhere in the UK and 0.7% from outside the UK. A majority (64.4%) of households moving into the TV4 area were headed by someone who was economically active and moving for work was identified as a key driver for moving. 42.3% had a weekly income in excess of £500, 41.4% of household reference people were in the 16- 39 age group and 49.6% in the 40-59 age group. 6.8 In terms of travel to work patterns, 84.1% of residents work in the TV4 area and 15.9% commute out to work and the TV4 area can be described as a self contained functional housing market. 6.9 Individual Local Authority Districts are all self-contained in terms of migration but not in terms of travel to work as the proportion of residents working in the same Local Authority District is below the 70% CLG threshold for self-containment.

Future housing market 6.10 Household projections point to an overall increase in the number of households across the TV4 area, with CLG 2008-based household projections suggesting the number of households across the TV4 area is expected to increase from 234,000 in 2008 to 272,000 by 2033, an increase of 16.2%. 6.11 Managing demographic change will become an increasingly important issue for the TV4 Authorities. Population projections suggest that the proportion of the population in the District aged 65 and over will continue to grow, with an increase from 94,000 in 2010 to 144,000 by 2033. 6.12 Although the total number of households is predicted to grow, the aging population means that most of the growth will be in older person households. Over the period 2008-2026, the total number of households is expected to increase by 24,000. Of this increase, 20,000 will be from households headed by someone aged 65 or over; 9,000 will be attributed to households with a household reference person aged 15-44 and there will be a decline of 5000 households with a household reference person aged 45-64; 6.13 Economic activity remains a strong in-migration driver and the Local Investment Plan will help drive the future economy of the TV4 area.

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Housing need and demand

Delivering new housing 6.14 Local housing targets have been presented in adopted Core Strategy Documents and amount an average of around 1700 additional dwellings each year across the TV4 area. A challenge for the TV4 area is to align future housing development with trends relating to household growth, household aspirations and the need for affordable housing. Crucially, the nature of household change needs to be better reflected in strategic housing and planning policies. Modelling carried out by TVU suggests that the most growth will be amongst households with a household reference person aged 65 and over and more modest growth of households headed by people in younger age bands. 6.15 The SHMA has evidenced that the provision of open market housing is broadly balanced with supply at District level, with imbalances of particular property types and sizes. 6.16 In terms of affordable housing, an annual net shortfall of 936 affordable dwellings has been calculated (gross requirement of 1,562). 6.17 A tenure split of 70% affordable (social) rented and 30% intermediate tenure is suggested. 6.18 In summary, key drivers in determining the tenure and type of future development include:  The need to continue development to satisfy household aspirations, in particular the development of detached houses, bungalows and larger properties with four or more bedrooms to offset identified market imbalances;  Responding to the impact of demographic change on dwelling requirements and in particular developing an increasing range of housing and support products for older people;  Delivering additional affordable housing to help offset the identified net shortfalls; and diversifying the range of affordable options by developing intermediate tenure dwellings and products;  The economic viability of delivering affordable housing on sites across the TV4 area. 6.19 The current economic circumstances clearly present a number of challenges to the delivery of housing and in particular the delivery of affordable rented housing and intermediate market dwellings. Developers comment that the market is not robust so the better locations (greenfield) have to be the mainstay of current supply and be used to provide cross subsidy for brownfield and regeneration sites. Getting the planning right is crucial and developers want to be involved and work with local councils to find solutions.

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Affordable housing policy recommendations 6.20 The current affordable housing policies of each Local Authority are summarised in Appendix H. The 2012 SHMA demonstrates an ongoing requirement for affordable housing across the Tees Valley and the existing policies for each remain appropriate.

Improving the quality of existing stock 6.21 Strategic challenges include reducing the level of vacant dwellings and improving the quality of existing dwellings through better energy efficiency and modernisation.

Vacant stock 6.22 There are an estimated 12,175 vacant properties across the TV4 area and these are mainly in the private sector. Properties can be empty for a variety of reasons which include: the properties are too difficult to repair or are in the process of being repaired; they are in the process of being sold; they have been bought for capital investment; or they are in probate. 6.23 The Councils should continue to consider identifying the reasons why properties are empty and identify mechanisms for bringing them back into use. Mechanisms could include:  Financial/professional help for repairs and improvements in the form of equity loans; grant aid for renovation and subsequent leasing to an Housing Association for a fixed term; a professional service to manage repairs or full renovation;  Assistance with letting management or the sale of a property

Satisfaction and repair 6.24 Although the vast majority of households (78.9%) are satisfied with the condition of their dwellings, 19,545 households (8.3%) were dissatisfied or very dissatisfied. Levels of dissatisfaction exceeded 10% amongst unfurnished private renters (17.3%) and furnished renters (11.5%); and amongst occupants of affordable (social rented/intermediate tenures (11.9%). Note that this information is based on responses to the household survey as expressed by respondents. 6.25 Improving the energy efficiency of dwellings and modernisation of stock is an important driver to improving the quality of existing stock and extends beyond those households expressing dissatisfaction. Given the need to reduce energy consumption, improve thermal comfort and future proof households from spikes in energy prices, retrofitting stock with improved insulation, heating systems and solar panels is likely to become a significant strategic issue.

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The ageing population and addressing the needs of vulnerable people 6.26 The proportion of older people is expected to increase over the next few decades. By 2033, the number of people:  aged 65+ is projected to increase by 50,000; and  aged 75+ is projected to increase by 31,000. 6.27 This trend has significant policy implications, given the greater need for appropriate housing and support as people age. Currently, the majority want to stay in their own homes with help and support when needed. 6.28 A key challenge for the Council is to ensure a greater diversity of support services are made available to older people wanting to stay in their own home and develop funding mechanisms to achieve this. Particularly noted is the need for help with repair/maintenance and cleaning; and bathroom adaptations and internal/external handrails 6.29 Additionally, the range of housing options available to older people needs to be diversified, for instance through the development of open market housing marketed at older people and the development of Extra Care accommodation and co-housing. . Extra Care accommodation is designed with the needs of frailer older people in mind. It includes flats, bungalows and retirement villages; residents have their own front door; and domestic support and personal care are available. Co-housing is your home in a small community which shares facilities (e.g. laundry) and activities.

Final comments 6.30 Appropriate housing and planning policies have a fundamental role to play in the delivery of thriving, inclusive and sustainable areas. These policies need to be underpinned with high quality data. This study has provided a wealth of up-to- date social, economic, demographic and housing data for the Tees Valley districts of Hartlepool, Middlesbrough, Redcar and Cleveland and Stockton-on- Tees. 6.31 This research has reflected upon the housing market attributes of the TV4 area, its constituent sub-market areas and interactions with other areas, notably County Durham and North Yorkshire. The report signposts future strategic challenges which include the ongoing delivery of new market and affordable housing to address need and support economic growth; diversifying the range of affordable tenures available to local residents; improving the condition and energy efficiency of existing stock; and addressing the requirements of an increasingly ageing population and vulnerable groups.

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Introduction to Technical Appendices

The SHMA guidance establishes a framework for the analysis of local housing markets from which core outputs can be derived. There are seven technical appendices accompanying this report which provide further background information on the following areas:  Technical Appendix A Research methodology  Technical Appendix B The current housing market  Technical Appendix C The future housing market  Technical Appendix D Housing need  Technical Appendix E Housing requirements of specific household Groups  Technical Appendix F Monitoring and updating  Technical Appendix G Statement of conformity to SHMA guidance  Technical Appendix H Affordable housing policy considerations

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Technical Appendix A: Research Methodology

Overall approach A.1 A multi-method approach was adopted in order to prepare a robust and credible Strategic Housing Market Assessment for Hartlepool, Middlesbrough, Redcar and Cleveland and Stockton Boroughs in Tees Valley:  A sample survey of households across the four local authority areas. A total of 55,376 households were contacted and 8,704 questionnaires were returned and used in data analysis. This represents a 15.7% response rate overall and total number of questionnaires returned was well in excess of the 1,500 specified in Government guidance;  An online stakeholder surveys and interviews with key stakeholders including Local Housing and Planning Authority representatives, Registered Social Landlords (RSLs), Estate Agents, Lettings Agents, Developers, Supporting People representatives;  A review of relevant secondary data including the 2001 census, house price trends, CORE lettings data and CLG Statistics. A.2 Household survey data is available down to postcode level. In the SHMA report, data are presented for sub-areas, Districts and for the TV4 area (comprising Hartlepool, Middlesbrough, Redcar and Cleveland and Stockton-on-Tees Local Authority Districts). A.3 The SHMA was overseen by a Housing Market Partnership comprising Local Authority officers.

Baseline dwelling stock information and survey sample errors A.4 Table A1 shows the total number of dwellings by locality, broken down into vacant and occupied stock. It indicates a total dwelling stock of 247,661 of which 235,487 are occupied and 12,175 are vacant (for at least 6 months). A.5 A residential address list was provided by the Councils based on the Council Tax register. A summary of households contacted by locality, achieved response rates and sample errors is shown in Table A2.

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Table A1 Baseline dwelling stock: vacancy/second homes and occupied Vacant / Total Second LA Sub-areas Dwellings homes Occupied Hartlepool Inner Suburbs 17,460 669 16,791 Outer Suburbs 13,710 477 13,233 Rural 1,320 76 1,244 Town Centre 9,696 1,033 8,663 Total 42,186 2,255 39,931 Middlesbrough East 13,361 423 12,938 Greater Hemlington 4,057 190 3,867 North 16,986 2,170 14,816 South 10,170 254 9,916 West 16,058 661 15,397 Total 60,632 3,698 56,934 Redcar Brotton 3,164 158 3,006 & Cleveland Greater Eston North 11,468 363 11,105 Greater Eston South 5,928 217 5,711 Guisborough 8,275 299 7,976 Loftus 3,089 279 2,810 Redcar 20,800 839 19,961 Saltburn 3,019 218 2,801 Skelton 6,369 205 6,164 Total 62,112 2,578 59,534 Stockton Billingham 15,564 476 15,088 -on-Tees Ingleby Barwick 7,454 169 7,285 Rural Areas 3,741 196 3,545 Stockton Inner Core 10,966 1,128 9,838 Stockton Outer Core 26,015 821 25,194 Thornaby 10,530 509 10,021 Yarm/Preston/Eaglescliffe 8,461 345 8,116 Total 82,731 3,644 79,087

Tees Valley Survey Area 247,661 12,175 235,487

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Table A2 Households surveyed, response rates and sample errors HARTLEPOOL Sub-area HOUSEHOLDS* SAMPLE SIZE SAMPLING ERROR RESPONSE RATE Occupied Achieved Mailout Result Result Inner Suburbs 16,791 365 2533 ± 5.07% 14.4% Outer Suburbs 13,233 412 2500 ± 4.75% 16.5% Rural 1,244 276 1244 ± 5.20% 22.2% Town Centre 8,663 305 2400 ± 5.51% 12.7% Hartlepool 39931 1358 8677 ± 2.61% 15.7%

MIDDLESBROUGH Sub-area HOUSEHOLDS* SAMPLE SIZE SAMPLING ERROR RESPONSE RATE Occupied Achieved Mailout Result Result East 12,938 256 2533 ± 6.06% 10.1% Greater Hemlington 3,867 387 2367 ± 4.73% 16.3% North 14,816 267 2533 ± 5.94% 10.5% South 9,916 496 2500 ± 4.29% 19.8% West 15,397 342 2533 ± 5.24% 13.5% Middlesbrough 56934 1748 12466 ± 2.31% 14.0%

REDCAR AND CLEVELAND Sub-area HOUSEHOLDS* SAMPLE SIZE SAMPLING ERROR RESPONSE RATE Occupied Achieved Mailout Result Result Brotton 3,006 369 2300 ± 4.78% 16.0% Greater Eston 16,816 356 2533 ± 5.14% 14.1% Guisborough 7,976 484 2467 ± 4.32% 19.6% Loftus 2,810 360 2267 ± 4.82% 15.9% Redcar 19,961 427 2533 ± 4.69% 16.9% Saltburn 2,801 444 2267 ± 4.27% 19.6% Skelton 6,164 397 2533 ± 4.76% 15.7% Redcar & Cleveland 59534 2837 16900 ± 1.80% 16.8%

Further breakdown of Greater Eston Greater Eston North 11,405 220 1651 ± 6.54% 13.3% Greater Eston South 5,711 136 882 ± 8.30% 15.4% Redcar & Cleveland 17,116 356 2533 ± 5.14% 14.1%

STOCKTON ON TEES Sub-area HOUSEHOLDS* SAMPLE SIZE SAMPLING ERROR RESPONSE RATE Occupied Achieved Mailout Result Result Billingham 15,088 388 2533 ± 4.91% 15.3% Ingleby Barwick 7,285 353 2467 ± 5.09% 14.3% Rural Areas 3,545 429 2333 ± 4.44% 18.4% Stockton Inner Core 9,838 315 2500 ± 5.43% 12.6% Stockton Outer Core 25,194 442 2533 ± 4.62% 17.4% Thornaby 10,021 323 2500 ± 5.36% 12.9% Yarm/Preston/Eaglescliffe 8,116 511 2467 ± 4.20% 20.7% Stockton-on-Tees 79,087 2761 17333 ± 1.83% 15.9% Source: Council Tax Data for The TV4 authorities 1. Where ‘sample’ is indicated in the column this means that a random sample of households were selected for that area and issued with a survey. 2. Sample error is based on the 95% confidence interval which is the industry standard to establish result accuracy

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A.6 A total of 8,704 households completed and returned questionnaires which were then subsequently used in data analysis. This represents a 15.7% response rate overall. A.7 In order to proceed with data analysis, it is critical that data is weighted to take into account non-response bias and grossed up to reflect the total number of households. Weighting for each sub-area was based on:  tenure (the proportion of affordable (social rented and intermediate tenure) and open market dwellings based on 2001 census data);  age of household reference person based on the proportions of household reference people aged under 60 and 60 or over living in affordable and open market provision derived from the 2001 census. A.8 Ultimately, the survey element of the assessment is sufficiently statistically robust to undertake detailed analysis and underpin core outputs of the study down to the key service centres presented in Table A1. Furthermore, the survey findings are enhanced and corroborated through analysis of secondary data and stakeholder consultation.

List of stakeholders interviewed as part of the SHMA process A.9 An online survey and telephone/face to face interviews were carried out with a range of stakeholders drawn from:  Local Authority Planning , Housing and Economic Regeneration Officers  Housing Associations/ALMOs;  Estate Agents / Lettings Agents;  Developers; and  Supporting People representatives. .

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Technical Appendix B: The Current Housing Market Underpins core outputs 1 and 2

Summary of contents

Stage 1: Demographic and economic context

Step 1.1 Demography and household types

Step 1.2 National and regional economic policy

Step 1.3 Employment levels and structure

Step 1.4 Incomes and earnings

Stage 2: The housing stock

Step 2.1 Dwelling profile

Step 2.2 Stock condition

Step 2.3 Shared housing and communal establishments

Stage 3: The active market

Step 3.1 The cost of buying or renting a property

Step 3.2 Affordability of housing

Step 3.3 Overcrowding and under-occupation

Step 3.4 Vacancies, turnover rates and available supply by tenure

Stage 4: Bringing the evidence together

Step 4.1 Mapping market characteristics

Step 4.2 Trends and drivers

Step 4.3 Issues for future policy/strategy

Introduction

B.2 There are three key primary drivers influencing the current (and future) housing market: demographic, economic and dwelling stock characteristics, as arc4 114 Tees Valley 2012 Strategic Housing Assessment Final Report

summarised in Table B1. This technical appendix specifically considers demographic and economic drivers in the context of Tees Valley: dwelling stock characteristics are discussed in Stage 2.

Table B1 Primary market drivers Primary Driver Attributes Impact on overall demand through: Demography Changing no. of households, Natural Change household structure, ethnicity Economy Jobs, income, activity rates, Economic migration unemployment Housing stock and Quality vs. aspirations, relative Residential migration aspirations prices, accessibility, development programmes

Stage 1: Demographic and economic context

Step 1.1 Demography and household types

Age profile B.3 The age profile of Tees Valley is summarised in Table B2. This indicates that across TV5, 49.6% of residents are aged under 40, 27.5% are aged 40-59 and 22.8% are aged 60 and over. This is comparable with the North East age profile.

Table B2 Age profile Redcar Middles and Stockton- Darlington Hartlepool Brough Cleveland on-Tees TV4 TV5 North Age Group (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) East % 0-19 24.2 25.1 25.3 23.3 24.8 24.6 24.5 22.9 20-39 23.7 24.1 29.0 22.4 25.4 25.4 25.1 26.0 40-59 28.1 28.0 25.6 27.9 28.1 27.4 27.5 27.5 60-74 15.6 15.0 12.9 17.5 14.5 14.9 15.0 15.4 75+ 8.4 7.9 7.2 8.8 7.2 7.7 7.8 8.2 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Base (000s) 100.6 91.4 142.2 137.4 192.3 563.3 663.9 2,606.5 Source: ONS 2010 Mid-Year Population Estimates

B.4 There are some interesting observations to be made relating to age and housing tenure evidenced through the household survey (Table B3a-d). The majority of residents under 39 live in owner occupied properties with a mortgage and this is most noticeable in Stockton compared to other areas. In arc4 115 Tees Valley 2012 Strategic Housing Assessment Final Report

contrast, the majority of people aged 60 to 74 and 75 and over live in properties that are owned outright. The private rented sector tends to accommodate younger households while affordable rent is more commonly spread over the different age groups in all four areas though with a slight propensity to be more commonly resided in by older age groups.

Table B3a Tenure and age profile - Hartlepool Age % of age group living in tenure Group Owner Owner Occupied Occupied Private Affordable Inter (outright) (mortgage) rented rent mediate Total Base Under 16 4.6 50.0 15.7 29.7 0.0 100 19,391 16 to 39 8.2 59.0 13.2 19.6 0.0 100 25,812 40 to 59 23.8 49.6 8.4 18.2 0.0 100 32,117 60 to 74 58.2 9.0 3.1 29.7 0.0 100 9,837 75 and over 51.6 13.1 3.8 31.5 0.0 100 4,846 All residents 20.5 46.1 10.4 23.0 0.0 100 92,003 Source: 2011 Household Survey

Table B3b Tenure and age profile - Middlesbrough Age % of age group living in tenure Group Owner Owner Occupied Occupied Private Affordable Inter (outright) (mortgage) rented rent mediate Total Base Under 16 9.0 53.3 13.0 24.7 0.0 100 28,163 16 to 39 8.9 52.5 14.1 24.5 0.0 100 36,108 40 to 59 23.9 47.1 6.3 22.7 0.0 100 47,561 60 to 74 58.6 11.8 2.2 27.5 0.0 100 12,363 75 and over 58.0 10.4 4.4 27.1 0.0 100 6,938 All residents 21.6 44.7 9.4 24.3 0.0 100 131,133 Source: 2011 Household Survey

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Table B3c Tenure and age profile – Redcar & Cleveland Age % of age group living in tenure Group Owner Owner Occupied Occupied Private Affordable Inter (outright) (mortgage) rented rent mediate Total Base Under 16 11.6 57.4 12.4 18.7 0.0 100 27,258 16 to 39 14.5 54.1 14.7 16.7 0.0 100 35,118 40 to 59 28.5 49.2 5.9 16.4 0.0 100 53,301 60 to 74 62.2 11.1 1.6 25.1 0.1 100 15,313 75 and over 60.9 5.9 2.4 30.8 0.0 100 7,736 All residents 27.1 45.4 8.7 18.7 0.0 100 138,725 Source: 2011 Household Survey Table B3d Tenure and age profile - Stockton Age % of age group living in tenure Group Owner Owner Occupied Occupied Private Affordable Inter (outright) (mortgage) rented rent mediate Total Base Under 16 6.3 63.1 15.4 11.7 3.5 100 35,194 16 to 39 9.0 62.9 13.3 11.1 3.6 100 51,021 40 to 59 24.6 53.4 5.4 12.3 4.3 100 70,096 60 to 74 59.8 13.6 2.9 16.3 7.3 100 17,210 75 and over 57.8 6.3 1.9 25.0 8.9 100 8,900 All residents 21.6 51.9 9.2 12.8 4.5 100 182,421 Source: 2011 Household Survey

Household type B.5 The household type profile of Tees Valley is summarised in Table B4 and shows a slightly higher proportion of other multi-person households compared with estimates for the wider North East area.

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Table B4 Household structure

Household Type Redcar & North Hartlepool M’brough Cleveland Stockton Tees East (08) % % % % Valley 4 % % Single Person 30.1 32.9 28.4 29.3 30.1 30.9 Couple (no children) 27.2 23.0 28.1 28.5 26.8 29.1 Couple (with dependent children) 17.3 16.6 20.4 19.1 18.5 19.2 Lone Parent (with dependent children) 9.2 9.3 6.6 5.9 7.4 7.6 Other multi-person household 16.2 18.2 16.5 17.2 17.1 13.2 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Base Households 39,932 56,933 59,532 79,085 235,482 1,079 k Source: 2011 Household Survey; 2008 ONS Regional Trends

Ethnicity B.6 Table B5 summarises the ethnic profile of Tees Valley’s residents based on 2001 census data which allows for comparisons with other areas. 96.1% of the population describe themselves as White British, the largest single ethnic group. Other groups include Pakistani (1.2%) and White Other (0.7%). All other ethnicities account for 2% of the population. Middlesbrough has the lowest proportion of White British residents and this is mostly due to the larger proportion of Pakistanis (3.6%).

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Table B5 Ethnicity of Tees Valley’s population (2001 census)

Redcar Tees Hartlepool M’brough Cleveland Stockton Valley North Ethnicity % % % % % East % White British 98.1 92.3 97.9 96.2 96.1 96.4 Irish 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 Other 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 Mixed White/Black Caribbean 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 White / Black African 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 White / Asian 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 Other 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Asian or Indian 0.2 0.6 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.4 Asian Pakistani 0.2 3.6 0.2 1.1 1.2 0.6 British Bangladeshi 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 Other 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Black or Black Black Caribbean 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 British Black African 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Chinese Chinese 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 or other Other 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Base 88,594 134,851 139,129 178,398 638 k 2,515 k Source: 2001 census

B.7 From around 2005/6, there was an increase in ethnic diversity across Tees Valley due to the economic migration of residents from EU A8 member states. This is reflected in the ethnic profile illustrated in Table B6 which is based on the 2011 household survey. This suggests that the proportion of White British has declined very slightly and around 0.5% (with a higher proportion living in Middlesbrough) of the population are White Central/Eastern European.

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Table B6 Ethnicity of Tees Valley’s population (2011 household survey)

Middles- Redcar Hartlepool brough Cleveland Stockton Tees Valley 4 Ethnicity % % % % % White British (English, Welsh, Scottish, Northern Irish) 97.2 92.4 98.2 96.1 96.0 White Irish 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.4 White Gypsy or Traveller 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 White Central and Eastern European 0.1 1.3 0.1 0.3 0.5 White other background 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 Mixed / Multiple ethnic group 0.3 0.9 0.2 0.2 0.4 Asian / Asian British 1.1 2.8 0.3 2.1 1.6 Black, African, Caribbean, Black British 0.2 1.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 Other ethnic group 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.3 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Base (valid responses) 64,524 90,198 99,023 130,408 384,149 Source: 2011 household survey

B.8 Table B7 presents Department for Work and Pensions data which is the only official data relating to the number of migrant workers in the UK and is based on National Insurance Numbers allocated to overseas nationals. Table B7 shows that for Tees Valley, there has been an annual average of around 11,530 overseas nationals working in the District over the period 2006/7 to 2010/11, with Polish workers strongly represented amongst migrant workers.

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Table B7 Overseas nationals applying to work in Tees Valley 2005/06 to 2009/10

Redcar Tees Origin Darlington Hartlepool Middlesbrough Stockton Cleveland Valley

Poland 1070 350 790 230 440 2,880 India 160 50 600 10 150 970 Pakistan 10 30 500 20 160 720 Czech Rep 50 10 440 10 70 580 Iraq 30 0 230 0 70 330 Slovak Rep 40 40 190 10 20 300 China Peoples 50 10 110 20 100 290 Rep of Lithuania 90 0 160 0 30 280 Nigeria 10 0 200 0 60 270 Philippines 30 10 40 30 150 260 France 30 0 130 30 60 250 Iran 20 10 140 0 70 240 Romania 80 0 80 20 30 210 Eritrea 0 0 140 0 60 200 Zimbabwe 0 0 100 0 60 160 Rep of Latvia 10 30 100 0 10 150 Elsewhere 550 290 1510 350 740 3440 Total 2230 830 5,460 730 2,280 11,530 Source: Department for Work and Pensions. National Insurance Number Registrations in respect of non-UK Nationals by country of origin. N.B. Numbers rounded up to nearest 10 and totals may not add up due to rounding

BAME households in Tees Valley B.9 The SHMA household survey identified around 7,607 households who were headed by someone who had an ethnicity other than White British. Some facts relating to these households are:  They are distributed across Tees Valley, although Middlesbrough accommodates around half of all BAME households in the TV4 area, particularly located in North Middlesbrough (28.6%) and East Middlesbrough (9.9%). Other notable areas with high BAME proportions are Stockton Inner Core (8.3%) and Thornaby (6.1%);  22.4% rent privately, 56.2% are owner occupiers and 21.4% live in affordable housing (mainly social renting);  51.8% have a gross income of less than £300 per week, 14.7% between £300 and £500 each week and 33.5% have a gross income of £500 or more each week;  13.1% of BAME households are in some form of housing need (compared with 7.8% of all households);  15.1% are dissatisfied with the state of repair of their homes (compared with 8.3% of all households). arc4 121 Tees Valley 2012 Strategic Housing Assessment Final Report

Step 1.2 National and regional economic policy

Overview B.10 Macroeconomic factors such as interest rates, inflation and national economic growth all impact on the operation of the housing market. A useful overview of the UK economic context is provided by PriceWaterhouseCoopers (PWC). B.11 PWC comment (July 2011) that there is likely to be modest average GDP growth of around 1.3% in 2011 and 2.2% in 2012, but the road to economic recovery is likely to be ‘long and bumpy’. The PWC report also considers house prices are expected to grow more strongly in the second half of this decade as credit availability gradually improves and the underlying shortages reassert themselves, but this longer-term outlook remains subject to high levels of uncertainty.

Interest rate trends B.12 Figure B1 summarises interest rate trends over the period 2000 to 2012. Since 2000, the average monthly interest rate has been 3.8%. Over most of this period, interest rates fluctuated between 3.5% and 6%, but since September 2008 have fallen and since March 2009 they have remained at 0.5%.

Figure B1 Interest rate trends 2001 -2012

Source: Bank of England arc4 122 Tees Valley 2012 Strategic Housing Assessment Final Report

Step 1.3 Employment levels and structure

Economic activity rates B.13 Across Tees Valley, 70.5% (average over the four combined authorities) of the working age population are economically active and 28.2% are economically inactive (Table B8). Proportions in employment are slightly lower than the North East average; and the unemployment rate is slightly above that of the North East proportion (26.6%). Economic inactivity is highest in Stockton (21.6%) and lowest in highest in Hartlepool (31.2%).

Table B8 Labour supply in Tees Valley

Middles- Redcar Hartlepool brough Cleveland Stockton North Economic Activity % % % % East (%) Total Economically Active 68.8 68.5 71.4 78.4 73.4 In employment 61.4 57.4 62 70.4 65.9 Unemployed 10.6 16.2 13.2 10.2 10.3 Economically inactive 31.2 31.5 28.6 21.6 26.6 Base: Working Age Population 58,200 92,100 85,500 122,400 1,676,100 Total Population (000s) (Mid 2010) 91.4 142.2 137.4 192.3 663.9 Source: ONS Annual Population Survey July 2009 – June 2010

Employment by occupation group B.14 Employment by broad occupational groups is summarised in Table B9. This indicates that compared with the North East, Tees Valley has broadly similar proportions of residents in the various occupation categories. There are slightly more Managers and Professionals when compared to the North East but this difference is small.

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Table B9 Occupation of Tees Valley’s economically active residents

Middles- Redcar North Occupations Hartlepool brough Cleveland Stockton East % % % % % 1 Managers and senior 11.6 10.0 11.0 11.0 12.5 officials 2 Professional occupations 9.0 9.3 11.5 13.0 11.9 3 Associate professional & 13.0 12.9 15.9 14.5 13.9 technical 4 Administrative & 9.7 12.7 8.6 11.1 11.5 secretarial 5 Skilled trades occupations 13.3 9.7 10.5 12.2 10.6 6 Personal service 9.7 12.0 11.1 9.1 9.1 occupations 7 Sales and customer 8.4 10.2 8.5 9.6 9.2 service occs 8 Process plant & machine 9.2 8.8 8.9 7.6 8.0 operatives 9 Elementary occupations 15.6 13.7 13.0 11.4 12.9 Soc 2000 major group 1-3 34 32 38 39 38 Soc 2000 major group 4-5 23 22 19 23 22 Soc 2000 major group 6-7 18 22 20 19 18 Soc 2000 major group 8-9 25 23 22 19 21

Source: ONS Annual Population Survey - Nomis; July 2009 – March 2011

Qualifications B.15 Education and skills are critical elements of sound economic performance. Table B10 illustrates that 48.5% of economically active residents in Tees Valley have at least an NVQ3 level qualification (compared with 48.1% for the North East – a negligible difference). The proportion with NVQ4 and above (29.2%) is again very similar to the 30.3% for the North East.

Table B10 Educational attainment of Tees Valley’s economically active population

Middles- Redcar Tees Hartlepool brough Cleveland Stockton Valley North Highest Qualification % % % % % East % NVQ4 and above 27.7 25.2 27.9 30.4 29.2 30.3 NVQ3 19.5 19.3 20.4 19.4 19.3 17.8 NVQ2 20.0 21.7 17.9 18.5 19.1 18.7 NVQ1 13.0 10.9 15.4 11.5 12.4 13.3 Trade Apprenticeships 4.4 5.2 5.3 5.6 5.1 5.6 Other Qualifications 6.6 5.8 7.6 6.9 6.7 6.4 No Qualifications 8.9 12.0 5.5 7.7 8.2 8.0 Base (Economically Active) 40,000 63,200 61,500 95,000 307,300 1.230 m Source: ONS Annual Population Survey; Jan – Dec 2010 arc4 124 Tees Valley 2012 Strategic Housing Assessment Final Report

Step 1.4 Income and earnings

B.16 The 2009 lower quartile and median earnings for Tees Valley and comparisons with the North West and England are presented in Table B11.

Table B11 Lower quartile and median earnings

Income Lower Location Type Quartile (£) Median (£) Hartlepool £17,230 £23,659 Middlesbrough £16,260 £21,278 Resident Redcar & Cleveland £16,089 £21,239 Stockton-on-Tees £17,322 £24,448 Hartlepool £16,034 £23,777 Middlesbrough £16,209 £21,615 Workplace Redcar & Cleveland £16,569 £23,863 Stockton-on-Tees £17,279 £23,420 Source: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings 2010 B.17 Lower quartile earnings of residents in Redcar and Cleveland are lower than the other three authority areas; median incomes are also divergent between the areas with the highest being recorded in Stockton-on-Tees (for resident) and Redcar and Cleveland for workplace. B.18 The distribution of household income (head of household and partner if applicable) across Tees Valley is summarised in Table B12 and this is compared with data for the North East. This data also includes the incomes of economically inactive households. It indicates that 23.6% of households living in Middlesbrough receive an income of less than £150 per week (compared with 17% for the North East). In contrast, 13.4% of households in Stockton earn £1000 or over per week compared to 8% for the North East.

Table B12 Tees Valley household income profile Gross Household Middles- Redcar Income each Hartlepool brough Cleveland Stockton North week % % % % East % Under £150 21.3 23.6 15.8 15.8 17 £150 to <£250 22.0 17.4 19.1 16.9 19 £250 to <£350 13.0 13.6 15.2 13.6 13 £350 to <£450 8.0 10.8 11.4 10.1 9 £450 to <£600 9.9 10.8 11.9 11.6 15 £600 to <£750 8.5 8.0 9.9 9.5 10 £750 to <£1000 7.9 7.2 7.8 9.1 9 £1000 or over 9.4 8.6 9.0 13.4 8 Total 100.0 100.0 100.1 100.0 100 Base (valid 34,715 48,047 50,353 69,249 NA responses) Source: 2011 Household Survey, Regional Trends 2008 arc4 125 Tees Valley 2012 Strategic Housing Assessment Final Report

B.19 The household survey provides details on household incomes (gross income of head and partner if applicable) and can be used to illustrate how income levels vary by locality, tenure and household type (Tables B13 and B14).

Table B13 Lower Quartile, median and upper quartile income by local authority area Weekly Income (£) Annual Income (£) LA District Lower Upper Lower Upper Quartile Median Quartile Quartile Median Quartile Hartlepool £175 £275 £625 £9,100 £14,300 £32,500 Middlesbrough £175 £325 £625 £9,100 £16,900 £32,500 Redcar and Cleveland £225 £325 £625 £11,700 £16,900 £32,500 Stockton-on-Tees £225 £375 £625 £11,700 £19,500 £32,500 Total £175 £325 £625 £9,100 £16,900 £32,500 Table B14 Lower Quartile, median and upper quartile income by sub-area

Weekly Income (£) Annual Income (£) District Sub-area Lower Upper Lower Upper Quartile Median Quartile Quartile Median Quartile Hartlepool Inner Suburbs £175 £225 £425 £9,100 £11,700 £22,100 Outer Suburbs £225 £625 £850 £11,700 £32,500 £44,200 Rural £275 £625 £850 £14,300 £32,500 £44,200 Town Centre £125 £225 £375 £6,500 £11,700 £19,500 Middlesbrough East £125 £225 £375 £6,500 £11,700 £19,500 Greater Hemlington £125 £275 £625 £6,500 £14,300 £32,500 North £125 £225 £425 £6,500 £11,700 £22,100 South £275 £625 £850 £14,300 £32,500 £44,200 West £225 £425 £625 £11,700 £22,100 £32,500 Redcar and Brotton £175 £375 £625 £9,100 £19,500 £32,500 Cleveland Greater Eston North £175 £275 £425 £9,100 £14,300 £22,100 Greater Eston South £175 £375 £625 £9,100 £19,500 £32,500 Guisborough £225 £475 £850 £11,700 £24,700 £44,200 Loftus £175 £275 £625 £9,100 £14,300 £32,500 Redcar £225 £375 £625 £11,700 £19,500 £32,500 Saltburn £225 £425 £850 £11,700 £22,100 £44,200 Skelton £175 £375 £625 £9,100 £19,500 £32,500 Stockton on Billingham £225 £375 £625 £11,700 £19,500 £32,500 Tees Ingleby Barwick £425 £625 £1,000 £22,100 £32,500 £52,000 Rural Areas £425 £850 £1,000 £22,100 £44,200 £52,000 Stockton Inner Core £125 £225 £375 £6,500 £11,700 £19,500 Stockton Outer Core £225 £375 £625 £11,700 £19,500 £32,500 Thornaby £125 £225 £425 £6,500 £11,700 £22,100 Yarm/Preston/Eaglescliffe £325 £625 £1,000 £16,900 £32,500 £52,000 TV4 Total £175 £325 £625 £9,100 £16,900 £32,500

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Table B15 Lower Quartile, median and upper quartile income by household type

Weekly Income (£) Annual Income (£) Household Type Lower Upper Lower Upper Median Median Quartile Quartile Quartile Quartile Single adult (under 60) £125 £225 £425 £6,500 £11,700 £22,100 Single adult (60 or over) £125 £175 £225 £6,500 £9,100 £11,700 Couple only (both under 60) £325 £625 £850 £16,900 £32,500 £44,200 Couple only (one or both over 60) £225 £325 £425 £11,700 £16,900 £22,100 Couple 1/2 child(ren) under 18 £425 £625 £1,000 £22,100 £32,500 £52,000 Couple 3+ children under 18 £275 £625 £850 £14,300 £32,500 £44,200 Couple with children aged 18+ £375 £625 £850 £19,500 £32,500 £44,200 Lone parent with 1/2 child(ren) under 18 £125 £175 £325 £6,500 £9,100 £16,900 Lone parent with 3+ children under 18 £125 £175 £275 £6,500 £9,100 £14,300 Lone parent with children aged 18+ £125 £225 £425 £6,500 £11,700 £22,100 Student household £90 £90 £90 £4,680 £4,680 £4,680 Other type of household £175 £275 £625 £9,100 £14,300 £32,500 Total £175 £325 £625 £9,100 £16,900 £32,500

Table B16 Lower Quartile, median and upper quartile income by tenure Weekly Income (£) Annual Income (£) Tenure Lower Upper Lower Upper Median Median Quartile Quartile Quartile Quartile Owned (no mortgage) £225 £325 £625 £11,700 £16,900 £32,500 Owned (with mortgage) £375 £625 £850 £19,500 £32,500 £44,200 Rented Privately (furnished) £125 £275 £425 £6,500 £14,300 £22,100 Rented Privately (unfurnished) £125 £225 £425 £6,500 £11,700 £22,100 Tied £425 £425 £625 £22,100 £22,100 £32,500 Social Renting £125 £175 £225 £6,500 £9,100 £11,700 Shared Ownership, Discounted for Sale £125 £175 £275 £6,500 £9,100 £14,300 Total £175 £325 £625 £9,100 £16,900 £32,500 Notes on statistics: Lower Quartile = 25% percentile i.e. 25% of incomes are below this figure and 75% are above Median = Mid-point of income distribution i.e. 50% incomes are above this figure and 50% are below Source: 2011 Household Survey

B.20 Within Tees Valley, tables B13 to B16 demonstrate there are considerable variations in income levels by area, household type and tenure. Median income levels are highest in Stockton-on-tees and lowest in Hartlepool. Single parents and single adult households aged over 60 are those most likely to have a lower median income (though students have the lowest). High median arc4 127 Tees Valley 2012 Strategic Housing Assessment Final Report

incomes are more likely amongst those with a mortgage and also those living in tied accommodation. B.21 The Tees Valley average median income is £325 per week while the upper quartile income is £625 per week.

Stage 2: The housing stock

Step 2.1 Dwelling profile B.22 The 2011 Household Survey provides a wealth of information on current dwelling profiles, which can be used to review dwelling size, type, condition and tenure. The characteristics of residents living in particular tenures are also explored in more detail to consider the general markets that different tenures are serving. This analysis is needed to help inform priorities for development for affordable and market housing, explore demand trends for social rented stock and explore inter-relationships between different tenures.

Total dwelling stock B.23 There are currently a total of 247,661 residential dwellings across the TV4 area of which 235,487 are occupied by individual households23. The total number of dwellings has increased from 235,797 in 200124. B.24 The overall tenure profile of Tees Valley is summarised in Figure B2. Table B17 compares this tenure profile with the region.

23 Based on Council Tax 2011 24 HIP return 2001 arc4 128 Tees Valley 2012 Strategic Housing Assessment Final Report

Figure B2 Tees Valley tenure profile 2011

Owned (no mortgage) 62,601

Owned (with mortgage) 93,383

Private rented 21,607

Affordable (Social rented and 57,312 intermediate)

- 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 No. occupied households

Source: 2011 Household Survey

Table B17 Comparison of national and regional tenure profiles with Tees Valley TV Middles- Redcar Study Tenure Hartlepool brough Cleveland Stockton Area North % % % % % East % England Owner-occupied 62.4 62.3 68.4 69.4 66.2 63.5 71.0 Social Rented 26.6 28.3 22.8 16.4 22.6 24.3 18.0 Private Rented 11 9.3 8.8 9.1 9.4 12.2 11.0 Intermediate tenure 0 0 0 5.1 1.7 # # Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Source: 2011 Household Survey; 2008 Regional Trends # Data not available

B.25 The majority of stock in Tees Valley is owner-occupied (66.2%). The proportion of social rented property is much higher than the national average though lower than for the rest for the North East. However, the proportion of private rented stock is somewhat lower.

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Newbuild activity B.26 Table B18 summarises newbuild activity over the five year period 2007/8 to 2010/11 in terms of dwelling completions by market and affordable tenure. Completions have averaged 1934 each year of which 1481 have been market and 453 affordable dwellings.

Table B18 Newbuild activity in Tees Valley Year Market Housing Redcar and Stockton Hartlepool Middlesbrough Cleveland on Tees TV4 2007/08 293 430 466 1184 2373 2008/09 340 118 294 490 1242 2009/10 321 181 192 539 1233 2010/11 183 256 180 456 1075 TOTAL 1137 985 1132 2669 5923 Annual average 284 246 283 667 1481 Year Affordable Housing Grand Total All Redcar and Stockton Dwellings Hartlepool Middlesbrough Cleveland on Tees TV4 TV4 2007/08 36 92 14 131 273 2646 2008/09 190 30 128 116 464 1706 2009/10 126 159 64 174 523 1756 2010/11 181 112 100 159 552 1627 TOTAL 533 393 306 580 1812 7735 Annual average 133 98 77 145 453 1934 Source: Local Authority Planning Department.

Right to buy B.27 At the time of the 1980 Housing Act which gave Council renters the right-to- buy their homes, there were 71,150 Council dwellings across Tees Valley. Available CLG data indicates that upwards of 25,179 dwellings have been sold under right to buy or preserved right-to-buy, representing 35.4% of dwelling stock (this excludes stock transfers). The level of sales has exacerbated the shortage of affordable accommodation across the area. More recently, the ability for renters to buy their homes has become more difficult as house prices have increased and therefore the price paid, after available discounts are taken into consideration, has increased too. However the Government has announced that discounts could increase.

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Owner occupation: stock information B.28 The majority of households in Tees Valley (155,984) are owner-occupiers; 26.6% own outright (62,601) and 39.6% own with a mortgage (93,383). Table B19 provides a summary of a range of data associated with owner-occupied stock. Table B19 Attributes of owner-occupied stock

Owned no Owned with All Owner All Occupied Property Type Mortgage (%) Mortgage (%) Occupied (%) Stock (%) Detached house 19.3 25.0 22.7 16.9 Semi-detached house 39.4 41.7 40.8 35.8 Terraced house 22.8 25.5 24.4 24.7 Bungalow 15.9 5.5 9.7 10.3 Maisonette 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 Flat/apartment 2.2 2.0 2.1 11.4 Caravan/Park Home 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 Other 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Base 62,601 93,383 155,984 235,487 Owned no Owned with All Owner All Occupied No. Bedrooms Mortgage (%) Mortgage (%) Occupied (%) Stock (%) One 2.0 0.9 1.3 8.9 Two 23.0 18.1 20.1 25.8 Three 56.4 51.8 53.7 47.4 Four 15.3 23.4 20.2 14.3 Five or more 3.3 5.7 4.7 3.4 Bedsit/studio 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Base 62,601 93,383 155,984 235,487 Owned no Owned with All Owner All Occupied Property Age Mortgage (%) Mortgage (%) Occupied (%) Stock (%) Pre 1919 11.2 10.5 10.8 9.7 1919-1944 20.0 17.1 18.2 16.7 1945-1964 25.4 20.1 22.2 24.1 1965-1984 31.2 25.5 27.8 28.0 1985-2004 10.7 20.1 16.4 16.0 2005 onwards 1.6 6.8 4.7 5.5 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Base 62,601 93,383 155,984 235,487 Satisfaction with state of Owned no Owned with All Owner All Occupied repairs Mortgage (%) Mortgage (%) Occupied (%) Stock (%) Very Satisfied 48.3 39.8 43.2 38.5 Satisfied 38.6 41.8 40.5 40.4 Neither satisfied / dissatisfied 9.9 10.7 10.4 12.8 Dissatisfied 2.9 6.3 4.9 6.3 Very Dissatisfied 0.4 1.4 1.0 2.0 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Base 62,601 93,383 155,984 235,487 Source: 2011 Household Survey

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B.29 Key observations include:  Most owner-occupied properties are houses, with 22.7% detached, 40.8% semi-detached and 24.4% terraced; a further 9.7% are bungalows, 2.2% flats/maisonettes and 0.3% other property types;  47.4% of properties have three bedrooms, 17.7% have four or more bedrooms, 25.8% have two bedrooms and 8.9% have one bedroom;  Around 10.8% of owner-occupied stock was built pre -1919, 40.4% was built between 1919 and 1964; 27.8% was built between 1965 and 1984. Just over a fifth (21.1%) has been built since 1985;  Although the majority (80.3%) of owner-occupier households are satisfied with the state of repairs, 4.9% are dissatisfied and 1.0% are very dissatisfied.

Owner occupation: household characteristics B.30 A range of socio-economic and demographic information on residents has been obtained from the household survey. Some interesting observations relating to owner-occupiers include:  In terms of household type, 34.9% of owner occupiers are couples with children, 20.8% are older (60 or over) singles and couples, 19.6% are couples (under 60 with no children), 14.5% are singles, 7% are lone parents and 3.2% are other household types;  The majority of adults aged 16 or over living in owner occupied dwellings are in employment (69.5%) and a further 19% are wholly retired from work. The proportion retired is considerably higher for outright owners (44.6%);  Incomes amongst owner occupiers tend to be high, with 46.2% receiving at least £500 each week. That said, incomes amongst outright owners tend to be lower than for mortgaged owners, with 45.9% receiving less than £300 each week compared with 16.6% of mortgaged owners. This reflects the different age profile and economic status of outright owners;  In terms of household type, 20.8% of owner occupiers are older (60 or over) singles and couples, 34.9% are couples with children, 19.6% couples with no children, 14.5% are singles, 7.0% lone parents and 3.2% other household types.  In terms of length of residency, over a third (34.7% of owner occupiers have lived in the same property for 20 years or more;  Just over half (50.2%) of owner occupiers work 30 hours or more a week (this is for a combination of head of household and the next oldest person), 19% are wholly retired from work;  69.5% of all economically active residents live in owner-occupied stock; and  44.6% of all owner occupiers have combined household earning of less than £300 per week – 33.7% earn more than £500 per week.

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Affordable housing: stock information B.31 Affordable housing comprises Housing Association and other social rented accommodations and intermediate tenure dwellings and accounts for 53,243 (22.6%) of all occupied dwellings. Intermediate housing is defined in the NPPF as ‘homes for sale and rent provided at a cost above social rent, but below market levels’. Intermediate tenure includes shared equity products (e.g. Homebuy), discounted for sale houses etc. Observations relating to affordable housing based on the household survey are presented in Table B20. This shows:  Houses account for 52.3% of occupied affordable dwelling stock, 33.9% are flats/apartments and 13.8% are bungalows. Affordable dwellings tend to have one (28.4%), two (36.4%) or three (33.3%) bedrooms, with a further 2.4% having four or more bedrooms;  30.5% of households living in affordable dwellings are singles under 60, a further 27.6% are older singles and couples, 17.4% lone parents, 11.6% couples with children, 7.9% couples (under 60 with no children) and 4.8% are other types of household;  26.4% of all people aged 16 or over living in affordable housing are in employment. A further 24.7% are permanently sick/disabled, 23.2% are wholly retired from work, 12.7% are looking after the home/a full-time carer or volunteer, 11.9% are unemployed and 1.1% are in full-time education or training;  Incomes are generally low, with 87.1% receiving an income of less than £300 gross each week and 64.6% receiving less than £200 gross each week. Affordable housing: household characteristics B.32 Key observations relating to the characteristics of households living in affordable dwellings:

 A variety of household types lives in affordable housing: 27.6% are older singles and couples, a further 11.6% are couples with children, 30.5% are singles, 17.4% are lone parents, 7.9% are couples with no children and 4.8% are other types of household;  28.6% of all people aged 16 or over living in affordable housing are in employment. A further 21.9% are wholly retired from work, 23.5% are permanently sick/disabled, 2.8% are in full-time education, 11.7% are unemployed and 11.5% are looking after the home/a full-time carer or volunteer.  Incomes are generally low, with 87% receiving an income of less than £300 gross each week and 48.9% receiving less than £150 gross each week

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Table B20 Attributes of affordable dwelling stock

Social Social Rented All Social Social Rented Social Rented Rented Property Type (Redcar and Rented (Hartlepool) (Middlesbrough) (Stockton Cleveland) (%) on Tees) Detached house 1.6 6.0 5.4 2.8 4.2 Semi-detached house 22.6 31.4 21.9 26.9 26.1 Terraced house 28.8 19.7 23.1 16.9 21.7 Bungalow 13.4 8.4 20.0 13.8 13.7 Maisonette 1.4 0.2 1.3 1.9 1.2 Flat/apartment 31.4 32.9 27.9 37.6 32.5 Other 0.8 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.7 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Base 10611 16118 13559 12955 53242 Social Social Rented All Social Social Rented Social Rented Rented No. Bedrooms (Redcar and Rented (Hartlepool) (Middlesbrough) (Stockton Cleveland) (%) on Tees) One 28.8 23.8 28.5 29.8 27.5 Two 38.9 32.1 37.3 38.8 36.4 Three 30.4 39.8 32.2 28.6 33.3 Four 1.1 1.8 0.9 2.2 1.5 Five or more 0.6 0.9 0.2 0.4 Bedsit/studio 0.2 1.6 1.1 0.4 0.9 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Base 10611 16118 13559 12955 53242 Social Social Rented All Social Social Rented Social Rented Rented Property Age (Redcar and Rented (Hartlepool) (Middlesbrough) (Stockton Cleveland) (%) on Tees) Pre 1919 2.4 4.5 4.2 3.9 3.9 1919-1944 12.6 11.0 10.2 10.5 11.0 1945-1964 32.7 26.2 25.1 33.3 29.0 1965-1984 24.8 32.1 40.6 29.4 32.2 1985-2004 22.8 16.2 12.8 17.5 16.9 2005 onwards 4.9 10.1 7.0 5.4 7.1 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Base 10611 16118 13559 12955 53242 Social Social Rented All Social Satisfaction with state Social Rented Social Rented Rented (Redcar and Rented of repairs (Hartlepool) (Middlesbrough) (Stockton Cleveland) (%) on Tees) Very Satisfied 32.5 33.1 31.7 27.7 31.3 Satisfied 39.0 38.4 41.8 39.3 39.6 Neither sat or dissatisfied 18.7 16.0 13.7 21.6 17.3 Dissatisfied 5.6 7.7 9.0 6.9 7.4 Very Dissatisfied 4.2 4.9 3.8 4.6 4.4 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Base 10611 16118 13559 12955 53242 Source: 2011 Household Survey arc4 134 Tees Valley 2012 Strategic Housing Assessment Final Report

Private rented sector: stock information

B.33 The household survey estimated that there are around 22,193 privately renting households across Tees Valley, representing 9.4% of households, broken down as follows:  1.6% (3,968) rent furnished properties;  7.4% (17,639) rent unfurnished properties; and  0.2% (586) rent tied accommodation. B.34 Table B21 summarises a range of data relating to private rented properties. Key observations include:  Houses account for the majority of private rented stock (74.8% overall), with flats accounting for a further 24%, bungalows 5.5% and other property types 1.2%. Flats account for 40.0% of furnished rented properties;  41.3% of private rented accommodation has two bedrooms and 38.3% has three bedrooms. 12.7% of private furnished property has one bedroom or is a bedsit and 7.7% have four or more bedrooms;  Overall, 16% of private renters expressed dissatisfaction with the state of repair of their accommodation. Dissatisfaction was highest amongst unfurnished renters (17.3%).

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Table B21 Summary of key data relating to private rented stock in Tees Valley Rented Tied Rented Privately Privately All Private All Occupied Property Type accom. (furnished) (%) (unfurnished) Rented (%) Stock (%) (%) (%) Detached house 4.5 6.9 61.1 7.9 16.9 Semi-detached house 20.6 27.3 3.9 25.5 35.8 Terraced house 28.4 38.7 3.6 35.9 24.7 Bungalow 5.9 5.3 7.3 5.5 10.3 Maisonette 0.6 1.2 0.0 1.1 0.4 Flat/apartment 40.0 19.2 21.0 22.9 11.4 Caravan/Park Home 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 Other 0.0 1.5 3.1 1.2 0.4 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Base 3,968 17,639 586 22,193 235,487 Rented Tied Rented Privately Privately All Private All Occupied No. Bedrooms accom. (furnished) (%) (unfurnished) Rented (%) Stock (%) (%) (%) One 16.7 11.6 2.7 12.3 8.9 Two 45.3 41.6 5.5 41.3 25.8 Three 30.8 39.8 43.2 38.3 47.4 Four 5.0 5.3 35.7 6.0 14.3 Five or more 2.2 1.2 12.8 1.7 3.4 Bedsit/studio 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.4 0.2 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Base 3,968 17,639 586 22,193 235,487 Rented Tied Rented Privately Privately All Private All Occupied Property Age accom. (furnished) (%) (unfurnished) Rented (%) Stock (%) (%) (%) Pre 1919 14.9 15.3 20.9 15.4 9.7 1919-1944 15.1 19.4 1.6 18.0 16.7 1945-1964 26.7 24.7 11.4 24.7 24.1 1965-1984 12.3 21.9 42.2 20.7 28.0 1985-2004 19.0 9.9 23.8 12.1 16.0 2005 onwards 12.0 8.8 0.0 9.1 5.5 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Base 3,968 17,639 586 22,193 235,487 Rented Tied Satisfaction with state Rented Privately Privately All Private All Occupied accom. of repairs (furnished) (%) (unfurnished) Rented (%) Stock (%) (%) (%) Very Satisfied 43.7 22.8 31.2 26.7 38.5 Satisfied 28.5 41.3 54.1 39.4 40.4 Neither satisfied nor dissatisfied 16.3 18.7 6.0 17.9 12.8 Dissatisfied 9.5 13.6 8.7 12.7 6.3 Very Dissatisfied 2.0 3.7 0.0 3.3 2.0 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Base 3,968 17,639 586 22,193 235,487 Source: 2011 Household Survey arc4 136 Tees Valley 2012 Strategic Housing Assessment Final Report

Private rented sector: characteristics of tenants B.35 Key observations relating to the characteristics of private renters are:  The characteristics of tenants are diverse and in particular the private rented sector accommodates singles (24.3%), couples with no children (16.3%), couples with children (21%) and lone parents (25.3%). 46.6% have lived in their accommodation for less than two years;  In terms of income, 62.4% of privately renting households receive less than £300 gross each week, 20.9% receive between £300 and £500 each week and 16.6% receive at least £500 each week, indicating that the private rented sector tends to accommodate lower income households;  53.8% of household reference people (heads of household) living in private rented accommodation are employed, 13.3% are unemployed, 9.8% are permanently sick/disabled, 8.4% are carers or looking after the home, 5.3% are wholly retired from work and 2.3% are in full-time education; B.36 The household survey provided data on 10,300 households who have moved into private rented accommodation over the past two years. Data indicates that:  35.7% moved into a private rented property in Stockton-on-Tees, 23.7% to Redcar and Cleveland, 22% to Middlesbrough and 18.6% to Hartlepool;  Around 38.2% were emerging households (either younger people forming their first independent home or household formation resulting from relationship breakdown etc.);  78.6% of the households had moved from within the TV4 area whilst 21.4% originated from outside the area. Those moving into the TV4 area originated from a variety of locations including: longer-distance migrants from outside the North East/Yorkshire and the Humber but from within the UK (9%), from Yorkshire and the Humber (5.6%), County Durham (1.5%), Darlington (1.2%) and 1.6% from outside the UK.;  45.2% of these households had moved within the private rented sector, 20.5% had moved from owner-occupation, 10.7% from social rented stock, 21.2% had previously been living with family/friends and 2.3% had moved from other tenures;  The main reasons for people moving into rented accommodation included: divorce/separation/family stress (15.2%), wanting a larger property or one which was better in some way (14.7%), wanting own home/live independently (9.5%) and to be closer to family/friends to give/receive support (7.2%).

Concluding comments B.37 In order to maintain balanced communities, there is a need for a variety of tenure options which people can choose to reflect their household circumstances. Owner-occupation is the dominant tenure (with around 156,000 households) and this is most likely to be aspired towards. Despite a substantial reduction in scale through right to buy, the social (affordable) arc4 137 Tees Valley 2012 Strategic Housing Assessment Final Report

rented sector accommodates around 53,000 households and the private rented sector around 22,000 households.

Step 2.2 Stock condition

B.38 The 2011 Household Survey asked respondents how satisfied they were with the state of repair of their accommodation (Table B22). Overall, 8.3% of respondents expressed dissatisfaction. Proportionately, unfurnished private renters (17.3%), furnished private renters (12%) and social renters (11.5%) were more likely to express dissatisfaction.

Table B22 Satisfaction with state of repair % Dissatisfied with state of repairs

Tenure Redcar and Stockton- Hartlepool Middlesbrough Cleveland on-Tees Total Owned (no mortgage) 2.9 3.1 2.7 4.1 3.3 Owned (with mortgage) 8.9 10.5 5.7 6.8 7.7 Rented Privately (furnished) 14.5 11.7 8.8 12.0 11.4 Rented Privately (unfurnished) 20.4 10.9 15.8 21.2 17.3 Tied 0.0 11.1 27.5 0.0 8.7 Social Rented 9.8 12.5 12.8 11.5 11.8 Shared Ownership, Discounted for Sale 0.0 100.0 0.0 12.5 13.0 Total 8.8 9.3 7.3 8.2 8.3 Source: 2011 Household Survey

Step 2.3 Shared housing and communal establishments B.39 There are an estimated 1678 Houses in Multiple Occupation across Tees Valley (of which 394 are verifiable) according to the 2011 Housing Strategy Statistical Appendix. The estimates are 63 in Hartlepool, 950 in Middlesbrough, 415 in Redcar and Cleveland and 362 in Stockton-on-Tees. B.40 Information from the 2001 census indicated that there were 6,831 people living in communal establishments in the TV4 area. The largest numbers were in prison service establishments, nursing homes and residential care homes (Table B23)

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. Table B23 Residents in Communal Establishments No. of Medical and Care Establishments Hart Mbro Redcar Stockton People NHS - Psychiatric hospital/home 163 0 154 0 9 NHS - Other hospital/home 246 74 135 26 11 LA - Childrens home 17 0 6 3 8 LA - Nursing Home 22 0 22 0 0 LA - Residential Care Home 522 44 140 193 145 LA - Other Home 47 0 0 0 47 HA - Home/Hostel 30 0 20 4 6 Other - Nursing Home 2058 354 474 531 699 Other - Residential Care Home 1735 303 514 495 423 Other - Psychiatric hospital/home 93 23 0 62 8 Other - Children's Home 0 0 0 0 0 Other - Other medical and care home 43 0 4 0 39 No. of Other establishments Hart Mbro Redcar Stockton People Defence establishments Prison Service establishments 1075 0 0 0 1,075 Probation / Bail hostel 37 0 16 21 0 Educational establishments (inc Halls of residence) 347 0 347 0 0 Hotel, Boarding House, Guest House 102 10 8 33 51 Hostel (including youth hostels, hostels for the homeless and people sleeping rough) 155 14 45 56 40 Other establishments 139 43 21 3 72 Total 6,831 865 1,906 1,427 2,633 Source: 2001 Census Standard Table 126

Stage 3: The active market

Steps 3.1 and 3.2 The cost of buying or renting a property and affordability

Buying a property B.41 A range of information relating to house prices, rates of change and comparisons with other areas was presented in Chapter 3. The cost of buying a property varies considerably by property type and locality, as shown in Table B24. B.42 Table B25 considers the relative affordability of open market purchase by reviewing the incomes which would be required to ensure that lower quartile arc4 139 Tees Valley 2012 Strategic Housing Assessment Final Report

and median-priced properties are affordable (that is, cost no more than 3.5 times a household income).

Table B24a Tees Valley and market area lower quartile house prices Jan 2009 to Feb 2011

Property Type - Lower Quartile Prices (£) District Semi- Sub-area Detached Detached Terraced Flat All Hartlepool Inner Suburbs 129,225 75,000 62,000 40,000 67,000 Outer Suburbs 163,670 116,480 89,000 91,500 115,000 Rural 285,000 100,000 110,500 144,000 Town Centre 97,000 91,250 46,500 34,000 49,975 Middlesbrough East 40,000 64,000 45,000 56,250 52,750 Greater Hemlington 120,000 100,000 60,000 79,000 99,950 North 144,950 70,000 49,000 66,000 53,000 South 165,000 125,125 101,125 79,500 129,000 West 162,000 110,000 80,000 72,917 96,000 Redcar and Brotton 175,000 95,000 52,000 49,000 75,000 Cleveland Greater Eston North 85,000 74,690 40,000 62,500 59,996 Greater Eston South 152,000 105,000 64,000 128,950 100,000 Guisborough 192,000 120,000 77,000 77,100 103,000 Loftus 132,500 76,250 62,000 50,000 70,000 Redcar 151,953 100,000 68,000 62,000 91,000 Saltburn 175,000 129,000 122,500 82,500 124,950 Skelton 158,500 100,000 64,500 55,000 83,950 Stockton on Billingham 149,000 87,000 73,000 65,000 83,000 Tees Ingleby Barwick 165,000 124,000 115,000 104,950 136,000 Rural Areas 226,325 143,000 101,250 99,000 145,000 Stockton Inner Core 156,500 75,000 56,000 60,000 59,250 Stockton Outer Core 146,000 98,000 74,000 69,000 94,000 Thornaby 131,995 92,500 65,000 75,000 81,250 Yarm, Preston, Eaglescliffe 177,500 125,000 110,000 130,000 135,000 Tees Valley 4 160,000 96,500 60,000 77,572 84,000

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Table B24b Tees Valley and market area mean(average) house prices Jan 2009 to Feb 2011 Property Type - Mean Prices (£) District Semi- Sub-area Detached Detached Terraced Flat All Hartlepool Inner Suburbs 155,437 96,858 80,883 76,044 91,147 Outer Suburbs 212,778 136,836 112,928 111,990 158,975 Rural 437,633 137,667 156,994 314,013 Town Centre 135,149 113,066 71,432 65,583 80,988 Middlesbrough East 103,333 77,749 63,135 94,813 71,768 Greater Hemlington 182,032 115,329 95,483 79,000 131,354 North 159,407 94,734 67,529 86,848 81,703 South 213,667 151,206 128,259 110,541 172,459 West 202,109 134,924 106,221 88,682 127,521 Redcar and Brotton 193,191 112,423 81,850 85,375 120,383 Cleveland Greater Eston North 136,164 97,289 57,759 63,250 84,453 Greater Eston South 212,112 127,351 87,721 133,650 134,960 Guisborough 245,677 143,942 98,891 102,034 156,667 Loftus 173,231 113,129 83,589 60,000 100,727 Redcar 186,942 120,892 95,573 79,147 126,291 Saltburn 278,000 159,406 171,614 125,981 172,273 Skelton 178,523 122,126 87,410 88,600 124,200 Stockton on Billingham 180,981 105,869 100,114 70,463 116,899 Tees Ingleby Barwick 209,510 142,714 130,567 105,634 182,132 Rural Areas 314,772 187,926 140,612 104,923 241,148 Stockton Inner Core 190,167 106,558 75,835 74,534 86,700 Stockton Outer Core 197,753 120,407 94,096 107,929 128,829 Thornaby 156,020 108,800 95,570 86,127 106,254 Yarm, Preston, Eaglescliffe 248,799 160,082 152,721 152,786 195,222 Tees Valley 4 217,247 124,871 91,308 106,518 133,471

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Table B24c Tees Valley and market area median house prices Jan 2009 to Feb 2011 Property Type - Median Prices (£) District Semi- Sub-area Detached Detached Terraced Flat All Hartlepool Inner Suburbs 147,500 93,500 76,000 70,000 85,000 Outer Suburbs 194,000 132,500 103,725 105,800 144,000 Rural 375,000 103,000 138,500 267,475 Town Centre 127,698 109,975 60,000 53,750 70,000 Middlesbrough East 95,000 76,000 58,000 117,500 69,000 Greater Hemlington 155,000 117,250 93,000 79,000 119,225 North 165,000 88,000 60,000 90,000 70,000 South 192,500 139,950 124,500 85,625 155,500 West 180,000 128,000 101,000 83,950 121,298 Redcar and Brotton 190,000 115,000 74,750 83,750 115,000 Cleveland Greater Eston North 145,000 93,500 55,997 63,250 79,000 Greater Eston South 173,225 125,000 80,000 131,225 126,500 Guisborough 216,000 139,000 92,000 99,500 140,000 Loftus 158,000 113,500 77,500 62,500 80,500 Redcar 177,000 120,000 85,000 81,500 120,000 Saltburn 215,000 153,250 155,000 120,000 155,000 Skelton 172,000 120,000 80,000 110,000 120,000 Stockton on Billingham 170,000 104,000 93,000 70,000 110,000 Tees Ingleby Barwick 190,000 132,750 129,975 106,000 165,900 Rural Areas 298,000 165,000 147,975 105,000 210,000 Stockton Inner Core 167,500 103,000 67,500 82,475 75,000 Stockton Outer Core 183,000 117,500 92,000 105,000 118,250 Thornaby 151,295 110,000 95,000 87,151 106,673 Yarm, Preston, Eaglescliffe 220,000 142,000 138,500 161,205 169,500 Tees Valley 4 192,000 120,000 80,000 99,995 120,000 Source: Land Registry

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Table B25 Relative affordability of lower quartile and mean (average) priced properties by market area Income required Income to afford required District Sub-area Lower Lower to afford Quartile Median Quartile Median Prices Prices Price price Hartlepool Inner Suburbs £67,000 £85,000 £19,143 £24,286 Outer Suburbs £115,000 £144,000 £32,857 £41,143 Rural £144,000 £267,475 £41,143 £76,421 Town Centre £49,975 £70,000 £14,279 £20,000 Middlesbrough East £52,750 £69,000 £15,071 £19,714 Greater Hemlington £99,950 £119,225 £28,557 £34,064 North £53,000 £70,000 £15,143 £20,000 South £129,000 £155,500 £36,857 £44,429 West £96,000 £121,298 £27,429 £34,657 Redcar and Brotton £75,000 £115,000 £21,429 £32,857 Cleveland Greater Eston North £59,996 £79,000 £17,142 £22,571 Greater Eston South £100,000 £126,500 £28,571 £36,143 Guisborough £103,000 £140,000 £29,429 £40,000 Loftus £70,000 £80,500 £20,000 £23,000 Redcar £91,000 £120,000 £26,000 £34,286 Saltburn £124,950 £155,000 £35,700 £44,286 Skelton £83,950 £120,000 £23,986 £34,286 Stockton on Billingham £83,000 £110,000 £23,714 £31,429 Tees Ingleby Barwick £136,000 £165,900 £38,857 £47,400 Rural Areas £145,000 £210,000 £41,429 £60,000 Stockton Inner Core £59,250 £75,000 £16,929 £21,429 Stockton Outer Core £94,000 £118,250 £26,857 £33,786 Thornaby £81,250 £106,673 £23,214 £30,478 Yarm, Preston, Eaglescliffe £135,000 £169,500 £38,571 £48,429 Tees Valley £84,000 £120,000 £24,000 £34,286 Tees Valley 4 Sources: Land Registry and 2011 Household Survey

Renting a property: private renting

B.43 Table B26 illustrates average private rents across Tees Valley by key service centre and property size/type.

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Table B26 Private renting in the Tees Valley

No. Redcar and Stockton- Beds Hartlepool Middlesbrough Cleveland on-Tees TV4 1 £346 £440 £505 £407 £391 2 £431 £486 £476 £550 £511 3 £569 £484 £555 £586 £556 4 £673 £689 £736 £805 £764 5 £1,300 £669 £945 £1,621 £1,319 All £468 £490 £544 £622 £558

Source: Internet search of private lettings agents December 2011

Renting a property: renting from a social landlord

B.44 Table B27 illustrates the cost of renting a property from social housing providers.

Table B27 The cost of renting from a social landlord in Tees Valley and income required for the property to be affordable Average Monthly Gross Rent – Housing Property size Associations Redcar & Stockton- Hartlepool Middlesbrough Cleveland on-Tees Bedsit £299 £263 £239 £238 One £279 £286 £285 £275 Two £301 £305 £306 £308 Three £316 £322 £325 £317 Four+ £332 £342 £350 £339 All Sizes £303 £311 £309 £303 Min. income required for rent to be affordable (based on 25% of gross household income) Property size Redcar & Stockton- Hartlepool Middlesbrough Cleveland on-Tees Bedsit £1,195 £1,053 £955 £952 One £1,115 £1,146 £1,140 £1,100 Two £1,202 £1,220 £1,224 £1,232 Three £1,262 £1,288 £1,301 £1,266 Four+ £1,329 £1,368 £1,401 £1,356 All Sizes £1,213 £1,244 £1,235 £1,210 Source: Homes and Communities Agency Regulatory Statistical Return 2010

B.45 The relative affordability of different open market options is carefully considered in assessing housing need and the scale of affordable housing required. This is discussed in more detail in Appendix D. arc4 144 Tees Valley 2012 Strategic Housing Assessment Final Report

Overcrowding and under-occupation (Step 3.3)

Overcrowding B.46 The 2011 Household Survey identified that around 1,305 households across the TV4 area were living in overcrowded conditions. Analysis was based on the number of bedrooms the household had access to, compared with the number required according to the Bedroom Standard Model. Table B28 shows that the proportion of households who were overcrowded averaged 2.8% across Tees Valley and was highest in Greater Eston North (7.1%).

Table B28 Overcrowding by sub-area

District Sub-areas No. Total % Over Overcrowded Households crowded Hartlepool Inner Suburbs 735 16,791 4.4 Outer Suburbs 113 13,233 0.9 Rural 9 1,244 0.7 Town Centre 276 8,663 3.2 Middlesbrough East 654 12,938 5.1 Greater Hemlington 66 3,867 1.7 North 728 14,816 4.9 South 83 9,916 0.8 West 173 15,397 1.1 Redcar and Brotton 43 3,006 1.4 Cleveland Greater Eston North 785 11,105 7.1 Greater Eston South 25 5,711 0.4 Guisborough 114 7,976 1.4 Loftus 26 2,810 0.9 Redcar 763 19,961 3.8 Saltburn 51 2,801 1.8 Skelton 74 6,164 1.2 Stockton on Tees Billingham 286 15,088 1.9 Ingleby Barwick 26 7,285 0.4 Rural Areas 67 3,545 1.9 Stockton Inner Core 225 9,838 2.3 Stockton Outer Core 628 25,194 2.5 Thornaby 499 10,021 5.0 Yarm/Preston/Eaglescliffe 83 8,116 1.0 Total 6,534 235,487 2.8 Tees Valley 4 Source: 2011 Household Survey

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Table B29 Overcrowding by local authority

No. Total % Over Districts Overcrowded Households crowded Hartlepool 1,133 39,932 2.8 Middlesbrough 1,705 56,934 3.0 Redcar and Cleveland 1,882 59,534 3.2 Stockton-on-Tees 1,813 79,087 2.3 Total 6,534 235,487 2.8 Source: 2011 Household Survey

B.47 How rates of overcrowding vary by tenure is shown in Table B30 and by household type in Table B31. Of households who are overcrowded, 42.2% are owner occupiers, 44.4% are social renters and 13.8% are private renters. Table B30 Overcrowding by tenure

No. Total % Over Tenure Overcrowded Households crowded Owned (no mortgage) 364 62,601 0.6 Owned (with mortgage) 2,392 93,383 2.6 Rented Privately (furnished) 95 3,968 2.4 Rented Privately (unfurnished) 807 17,639 4.6 Tied 0 586 0.0 Social renting 2,636 53,243 5.0 Shared Ownership, DFS 240 4,069 5.9 Total 6,534 235,487 2.8 Source: 2011 Household Survey

B.48 Over a third (39.1%) of all overcrowded households are couples with children (Table B31). In terms of the proportions of household types that are overcrowded, 32.6% of all lone parents are overcrowded.

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Table B31 Overcrowding by household type

No. Total % Over Households Overcrowded Households crowded Single adult (under 60) 0 45,093 0.0 Single adult (60 or over) 0 25,785 0.0 Couple only (both under 60) 0 38,723 0.0 Couple only (one or both over 60) 0 24,483 0.0 Couple 1/2 child(ren) under 18 246 35,385 0.7 Couple 3+ children under 18 1,258 8,214 15.3 Couple with children aged 18+ 1,053 22,365 4.7 Lone parent with 1/2 child(ren) under 18 775 14,942 5.2 Lone parent with 3+ children under 18 586 2,588 22.6 Lone parent with children aged 18+ 771 8,941 8.6 Student household 0 174 0.0 Other type of household 1,844 8,794 21.0 Total 6,534 235,487 2.8 Source: 2011 H1ousehold Survey

Under-occupation B.49 Using the bedroom standard model methodology, it is possible to identify households that are under-occupying i.e. there are more bedrooms than needed. Overall, around 174,500 households (74.1%) in Tees Valley are technically under-occupying e.g. a couple in a two or three bedroom house or a single person in a two bedroom house. Severe under-occupation, whereby a household has 3 or more ‘spare bedrooms’, is experienced by a total of 15,366 households (6.5%). Table B32 summarises the number and proportion of households where there is severe under-occupation by sub-area, indicating that this is a particular issue for households living in Rural Areas (26.2%), Ingleby Marwick (15.3%), Saltburn (14.0%) and Guisborough (13.7%) sub- areas.

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Table B32 Severe under-occupation* by sub-area Number District Sub-areas under- Total % under- occupying* Households occupying* Hartlepool Inner Suburbs 566 16,791 3.4 Outer Suburbs 1080 13,233 8.2 Rural 167 1,244 13.4 Town Centre 397 8,663 4.6 Middlesbrough East 101 12,938 0.8 Greater Hemlington 196 3,867 5.1 North 295 14,816 2.0 South 921 9,916 9.3 West 1163 15,397 7.6 Redcar and Brotton 155 3,006 5.2 Cleveland Greater Eston North 89 11,105 0.8 Greater Eston South 415 5,711 7.3 Guisborough 1090 7,976 13.7 Loftus 113 2,810 4.0 Redcar 1067 19,961 5.3 Saltburn 392 2,801 14.0 Skelton 527 6,164 8.6 Stockton on Billingham 1195 15,088 7.9 Tees Ingleby Barwick 1115 7,285 15.3 Rural Areas 929 3,545 26.2 Stockton Inner Core 390 9,838 4.0 Stockton Outer Core 1581 25,194 6.3 Thornaby 150 10,021 1.5 Yarm/Preston/Eaglescliffe 1271 8,116 15.7 Tees Valley 4 Total 15366 235,487 6.5 *household has 3 or more ‘spare’ bedrooms Source: Household survey 2011

B.50 Table B33 considers severe under-occupation by tenure. Severe under- occupation is most prevalent amongst owner occupiers (accounting for 91.9% of all severe under-occupation). Severe under-occupation is not a huge issue for other tenures and only accounts for 8.1% of all under-occupation.

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Table B33 Severe under-occupation* by tenure Number under- Total % under- Tenure occupying* Households occupying* Owned (no mortgage) 6911 62,601 11.0 Owned (with mortgage) 7220 93,383 7.7 Rented Privately (furnished) 50 3,968 1.3 Rented Privately (unfurnished) 406 17,639 2.3 Tied 154 586 26.2 Social Renting 598 53,243 1.1 Shared Ownership, DFS 27 4,069 0.7 Total 15366 235,487 6.5 *household has 3 or more ‘spare’ bedrooms Source: Household survey 2011

B.51 Table B34 illustrates the relationship between severe under-occupation and household type. This shows that severe under-occupation is most prevalent amongst couples without children accounting for 64.4% of all sever under- occupation. The next largest group are single adults with no children (17.3%).

Table B34 Under-occupation* by household type Number under- Total % under- Households occupying* Households occupying* Single adult (under 60) 1582 45,093 3.5 Single adult (60 or over) 1081 25,785 4.2 Couple only (both under 60) 6187 38,723 16.0 Couple only (one or both over 60) 3716 24,483 15.2 Couple 1/2 child(ren) under 18 1994 35,385 5.6 Couple 3+ children under 18 0 8,214 0.0 Couple with children aged 18+ 598 22,365 2.7 Lone parent with 1/2 child(ren) under 18 28 14,942 0.2 Lone parent with 3+ children under 18 21 2,588 0.8 Lone parent with children aged 18+ 0 8,941 0.0 Student household 0 174 0.0 Other type of household 159 8,794 1.8 Total 15366 235,487 6.5 *Household has 3 or more ‘spare’ bedrooms Source: Household survey 2011

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Step 3.4 Vacancies, turnover rates and available supply by tenure

Vacancy rates B.52 A total of 8,684 dwellings were reported as vacant in April 2011 representing 3.5% of total dwelling stock.

Turnover rates B.53 The 2011 Household Survey provided information on how long a household had lived at their present address. Using this information, turnover rates can be derived by local authority area and sub-area (Table B35) and tenure (Table B36). Overall, around 6.9% of households move each year. Within Tees Valley, there are some variations in turnover by authority area and sub-area, with highest rates in Hartlepool (7.6%) and Stockton-on-Tees (7.1%) and lowest rates in Middlesbrough (6.1%). In terms of sub-areas within each authority area turnover is highest in Stockton (inner core) (15%) and Rural areas of Hartlepool (10.4%) and lowest in Billingham (4.6%). B.54 Table B36 shows that there are strong relationships between turnover and tenure, with the private rented sector (excluding tied renting) exhibiting strong rates of turnover and the owner-occupied sector the least; this is entirely consistent with national trends.

Table B35a Household turnover rates by district % households Annual living in property Annual turnover for less than 5 turnover (no. Districts years rate (%) dwellings) Hartlepool 28.5 7.6 3,052 Middlesbrough 24.8 6.1 3,490 Redcar and Cleveland 26.8 6.9 4,090 Stockton-on-Tees 28.2 7.1 5,621 Total 27.1 6.9 16,253 Source: Household survey 2011

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Table B35b Household turnover rates by sub-area % households Annual living in property Annual turnover for less than 5 turnover (no. District Sub-areas years rate (%) dwellings) Hartlepool Inner Suburbs 27.7 7.2 1,214 Outer Suburbs 28.2 7.3 962 Rural 23.9 10.4 130 Town Centre 30.1 8.6 746 Middlesbrough East 24.1 6.4 829 Greater Hemlington 28.5 7.0 269 North 29.6 8.7 1,284 South 18.7 3.6 358 West 23.7 4.9 749 Redcar and Brotton 27.5 7.9 238 Cleveland Greater Eston North 25.2 8.0 883 Greater Eston South 17.8 6.8 389 Guisborough 27.2 5.7 458 Loftus 23.7 6.6 186 Redcar 29.7 6.6 1,309 Saltburn 31.7 7.4 207 Skelton 26.5 6.8 421 Stockton on Billingham 20.6 4.6 692 Tees Ingleby Barwick 36.1 7.2 526 Rural Areas 28.6 7.9 279 Stockton Inner Core 34.3 15.0 1,475 Stockton Outer Core 26.2 5.3 1,330 Thornaby 31.6 6.5 655 Yarm/Preston/Eaglescliffe 29.7 8.2 662 Tees Valley 4 Total 27.1 6.9 16,251 Source: Household survey 2011

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Table B36 Household turnover rates by area and tenure % households Annual living in property Annual turnover for less than 5 turnover (no. Tenure years rate (%) dwellings) Owned (no mortgage) 8.0 2.7 1,678 Owned (with mortgage) 25.2 4.1 3,786 Rented Privately (furnished) 69.5 31.0 1,232 Rented Privately (unfurnished) 70.0 28.3 4,987 Tied 34.8 6.8 40 Social rented 35.3 8.1 4333 Shared Ownership, DFS 27.0 4.9 198 Total 27.1 6.9 16,254 Source: Household survey 2011

Supply by tenure

Owner occupied B.55 On the basis of household turnover rates presented in Table B36, around 5,464 owner occupied dwellings become available for purchase on an annual basis.

Private rented B.56 There is a high degree of turnover in private rented properties, which results in a good overall supply. Household survey data suggests around 6,219 private rented lets become available each year.

Social rented B.57 Household survey data suggests around 4,300 Housing Association lettings are made each year. Further analysis of social rented lettings is presented at Appendix D.

Intermediate tenure B.58 Intermediate housing is defined in the NPPF as ‘homes for sale and rent provided at a cost above social rent, but below market levels’. Intermediate tenure includes shared equity products (e.g. Homebuy), discounted for sale houses etc. ‘housing at prices and rents above those of social rent, but below market price or rents’. Intermediate tenure includes shared equity products (e.g. Homebuy), discounted for sale houses etc. B.59 Household survey data suggests that 49 intermediate tenure dwellings come available each year. Further analysis of intermediate tenure turnover is presented at Appendix D.

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Stage 4: Bringing the evidence together

Step 4.1 Mapping market characteristics

Introduction B.60 Chapter 3 presented a range of material relating to housing market dynamics. An analysis of household mobility suggests that of households moving in the past 5 years, 88.8% of households move within the TV4 area 11.2% had moved into the area, have moved into the District, of whom 3% were from elsewhere in the North East, 2.8% from Yorkshire and the Humber, 5.2% from elsewhere in the UK and 0.7% from outside the UK. A majority (64.4%) of households moving into the TV4 area were headed by someone who was economically active and moving for work was identified as a key driver for moving. 42.3% had a weekly income in excess of £500, 41.4% of household reference people were in the 16-39 age group and 49.6% in the 40-59 age group. B.61 In terms of travel to work patterns, 84.1% of residents work in the TV4 area and 15.9% commute out to work and the TV4 area can be described as a self contained functional housing market. B.62 The extent to which housing market dynamics vary across the District are now explored by market area, ,with specific reference to:  Housing market function (through the review of migration patterns and travel to work patterns); and  Housing market typology (through the review of dwelling stock and socio- economic and demographic characteristics) B.63 Table B37 provides a review of the distinctive attributes of each sub-area. For each attribute, a District mean has been calculated (for instance the % of households who are owner-occupiers). Information for each market area is then compared against this mean to indicate the extent of variation from the mean figure. The colours in the chart reflect the degree of variation:  YELLOW indicates that the sub-area figure is less than 75% of the District mean;  GREEN indicates that the sub-area figure is between 75% and 125% of the District mean; and  RED indicates that the sub-area figure is at least 125% of the District mean.

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Table B37 Attributes of sub-areas - Hartlepool Attribute % variation from District Average value Inner Outer Hartlepool Tenure Suburbs Suburbs Rural Town Centre Average Owner Occupied 82.9 127.6 113.3 89.3 62.4 Private Rented 85.5 42.7 154.5 209.1 11.0 Affordable (Social Rented) 146.2 59.0 46.2 80.1 26.6 Property Type Detached 17.7 237.7 279.2 23.7 13.9 Semi 115.2 114.9 80.3 50.2 29.2 Terraced 108.5 35.1 59.3 189.0 34.8 Bungalow 117.1 101.6 188.5 51.4 7.1 Flat/Maisonette 118.5 93.3 15.4 86.3 14.2 No. Bedrooms 1-2 beds 116.3 78.9 66.7 105.4 41.8 3-4 beds 89.7 112.9 112.0 98.6 54.6 5+ beds 67.8 148.8 301.8 58.9 3.6 Property Prices 2008 Median 83.3 138.9 231.5 70.3 £108,000 2009 Median 78.6 133.4 286.3 66.7 £104,950 2010 Median 79.3 132.1 141.3 63.8 £109,725 Household Income <£300pw 118.7 63.1 56.9 128.5 50.4 Between £300 and £500pw 111.3 77.5 102.6 113.6 18.2 >£500pw 63.5 172.1 167.6 46.5 31.4 Economic Activity (16+) In Employment 87.3 117.5 120.1 89.7 56.4 In training 146.5 64.9 25.5 83.5 1.7 Unemployed 142.6 41.8 31.1 133.5 6.5 Retired 102.8 104.1 99.2 87.0 18.6 Look after home 94.7 109.1 52.3 102.4 6.3 Permanently sick, carer 132.6 35.1 76.8 158.3 10.5 Migration (prev 5 years) % all households moving 97.3 99.1 105.9 105.8 28.5 % all movers from: Within Sub-area 51.9 47.2 23.9 33.2 Within District 27.0 41.4 39.1 47.8 82.1 Within TV 1.9 4.5 28.4 4.3 4.2 North Yorkshire 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 0.3 County Durham 3.7 2.1 2.9 4.5 3.3 Elsewhere UK 13.6 3.3 5.6 7.2 8.5 Outside UK 1.9 1.5 0.0 1.5 1.6 Workplace In District 69.8 64.0 57.5 68.7 66.8 Elsewhere in TV5 15.8 23.7 24.5 17.8 19.7 Outside TV5 14.4 12.4 18.0 13.5 13.5 Household type Singles (under 60) 108.2 57.3 47.1 156.9 18.6 Couples (under 60) 100.9 100.1 140.9 91.8 16.2 Older Persons 104.5 100.5 97.0 90.9 22.4 Two parent families 83.6 143.6 127.2 61.3 27.0 Lone Parents 119.1 70.2 83.0 111.0 12.7 Other multi-person HH 76.8 93.6 56.4 161.2 3.0 Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic Households BAME Households 142.3 5.2 101.2 162.1 1.6

0.0 <75% of District average 75.0 75% to <125% of District average 126.0 >125% District average Source: 2011 Household Survey; Land Registry arc4 154 Tees Valley 2012 Strategic Housing Assessment Final Report

Table B38 Attributes of sub-areas - Middlesbrough

Attribute % variation from District Average value

Greater Middlesbrough Tenure East Hemlington North South West Average Owner occupied 69.4 81.9 79.7 125.4 133.2 62.3 Private Rented 88.7 61.4 166.6 37.4 96.1 9.3 Affordable (Social Rented) 171.0 152.5 122.7 64.8 28.2 28.3 Property Type Detached 58.6 150.8 14.5 298.8 72.5 11.4 Semi 128.4 63.0 64.5 86.0 127.8 41.9 Terraced 86.8 92.0 196.5 29.9 68.4 25.4 Bungalow 75.2 189.4 46.0 134.3 126.7 7.9 Flat/Maisonette 91.2 142.8 126.5 88.4 79.4 12.6 No. Bedrooms 1-2 beds 142.3 158.4 190.5 113.4 106.0 24.1 3-4 beds 96.8 86.2 78.1 102.6 107.3 67.3 5+ beds 7.6 49.5 20.4 46.1 28.9 7.9 Property Prices 2008 Median 76.1 125.8 73.0 162.3 124.8 £98,596 2009 Median 68.2 109.5 65.7 134.5 109.5 £110,000 2010 Median 62.9 112.4 66.7 156.2 114.3 £105,000 Household Income <£300pw 140.4 116.5 130.4 61.8 62.8 48.8 Between £300 and £500pw 95.8 70.1 70.1 89.6 144.4 22.0 >£500pw 35.5 95.0 71.6 171.8 128.8 29.2 Economic Activity (16+) In Employment 73.1 85.6 99.0 116.6 115.2 56.3 In training 150.0 7.3 129.2 28.6 102.3 1.6 Unemployed 151.9 160.6 97.1 65.3 68.7 6.8 Retired 104.8 101.3 69.9 103.8 120.7 19.9 Look after home 193.4 138.7 136.8 47.5 16.2 3.3 Permanently sick, carer 155.8 132.5 142.1 59.4 35.3 12.1 Migration (prev 5 years) % all households moving 97.1 115.0 120.1 74.7 95.6 24.8 % all movers from: Within Sub-area 56.1 40.5 63.8 37.6 43.2 Within District 28.9 31.6 23.6 30.7 29.7 80.0 Within TV 6.7 18.8 2.6 18.9 18.2 10.3 North Yorkshire 0.0 2.5 2.0 4.5 0.0 1.4 County Durham 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 Elsewhere UK 5.0 4.9 8.0 8.3 9.0 7.4 Outside UK 0.7 1.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 Workplace In District 82.2 61.4 62.5 47.0 61.5 62.1 Elsewhere in TV5 12.4 29.8 31.4 39.0 32.2 30.0 Outside TV5 5.3 8.9 6.1 13.9 6.3 7.9 Household type Singles (under 60) 91.1 115.1 137.5 75.3 83.8 21.7 Couples (under 60) 109.7 92.3 97.6 68.0 116.9 14.1 Older Persons 103.4 96.9 82.2 108.3 109.5 20.1 Two parent families 79.6 99.9 76.9 149.9 106.9 26.2 Lone Parents 135.2 104.7 108.8 72.3 78.8 13.2 Other multi-person HH 111.7 54.3 114.4 74.5 104.5 4.7 Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic Households BAME Households 91.6 29.2 232.0 37.3 39.2 6.4

0.0 <75% of District average 75.0 75% to <125% of District average 126.0 >125% District average Source: 2011 Household Survey; Land Registry arc4 155 Tees Valley 2012 Strategic Housing Assessment Final Report

Table B39 Attributes of sub-areas – Redcar and Cleveland Attribute % variation from District Average value Greater Greater Redcar and Eston Eston Guisbor Cleveland Tenure Brotton North South ough Loftus Redcar Saltburn Skelton Average Owner Occupied 110.3 73.6 111.1 108.1 95.4 104.7 111.2 103.5 68.4 Private Rented 88.8 102.4 68.2 125.3 62.8 89.8 124.9 136.2 8.8 Affordable (Social Rented) 73.3 178.3 79.1 65.8 128.2 89.8 56.7 75.5 22.8 Property Type Detached 125.5 35.0 90.6 153.0 69.9 104.5 53.6 162.7 16.4 Semi 92.4 121.4 86.7 91.1 66.3 118.1 79.6 55.6 35.1 Terraced 124.6 108.3 95.2 93.5 182.7 73.3 123.1 125.2 23.2 Bungalow 97.8 79.5 161.5 78.9 98.6 104.3 50.4 116.0 15.5 Flat/Maisonette 25.0 150.8 80.9 90.9 67.6 85.3 286.7 54.9 9.3 No. Bedrooms 1-2 beds 96.9 124.0 90.5 80.3 96.7 96.1 92.9 109.9 36.0 3-4 beds 104.1 89.2 102.2 108.2 103.3 105.1 95.2 88.9 60.1 5+ beds 66.8 44.6 153.0 154.4 79.6 58.3 238.5 178.4 3.9 Property Prices 2008 Median 93.5 64.3 121.7 126.1 70.1 108.5 129.6 100.0 £115,000 2009 Median 98.7 65.3 109.2 111.8 67.2 98.7 129.4 105.0 £119,000 2010 Median 94.0 66.7 106.4 119.7 68.4 105.1 136.8 98.3 £117,000 Household Income <£300pw 99.4 138.7 100.9 80.1 123.0 88.9 79.9 95.1 43.3 Between £300 and £500pw 102.0 87.0 105.9 88.0 83.3 107.7 91.1 117.8 23.4 >£500pw 99.3 58.8 94.6 134.4 81.9 109.0 132.4 93.9 33.3 Economic Activity (16+) In Employment 104.2 88.4 96.4 108.4 91.9 101.1 108.9 106.5 57.8 In training 85.6 0.0 0.0 204.5 94.2 153.0 83.1 85.6 0.5 Unemployed 118.6 162.6 74.3 74.8 56.4 89.2 77.8 101.6 4.2 Retired 77.9 92.4 108.0 102.5 86.8 107.6 102.1 94.2 22.3 Look after home 117.1 113.5 31.0 113.3 160.0 107.4 58.8 83.7 4.7 Permanently sick, carer 109.5 154.4 149.5 46.7 164.6 75.7 74.3 83.6 10.4 Migration (prev 5 years) % all households moving 102.8 94.1 66.7 101.8 88.4 111.0 118.5 99.1 26.8 % all movers from: Within Sub-area 41.7 47.3 30.2 54.0 50.4 66.1 37.0 32.9 Within District 33.1 30.7 32.4 19.5 18.1 18.2 36.5 44.5 77.9 Within TV 6.7 21.1 35.6 11.0 9.4 7.3 7.8 9.0 12.3 North Yorkshire 0.2 0.0 0.0 7.4 1.9 0.6 3.6 6.2 2.2 County Durham 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.6 1.9 0.0 3.0 0.0 0.6 Elsewhere UK 18.1 0.9 1.8 4.1 18.1 7.9 10.4 5.4 6.6 Outside UK 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.3 0.0 0.0 1.7 2.0 0.5 Workplace In District 68.1 50.3 55.6 51.4 70.8 71.2 59.5 57.0 61.0 Elsewhere in TV5 20.8 47.8 36.4 37.3 19.1 24.3 33.5 33.1 32.4 Outside TV5 11.0 1.9 8.0 11.2 10.1 4.5 7.0 9.9 6.6 Household type Singles (under 60) 79.9 132.4 98.9 92.4 81.3 91.7 117.4 90.0 16.8 Couples (under 60) 129.5 91.8 124.0 100.4 135.0 78.7 99.8 130.9 16.3 Older Persons 74.5 94.4 99.6 103.3 93.0 107.9 110.9 91.2 23.4 Two parent families 116.5 76.0 88.7 109.8 101.9 111.1 91.5 99.8 29.5 Lone Parents 94.0 117.8 108.8 86.4 82.5 94.1 86.8 113.1 9.9 Other multi-person HH 106.5 163.2 71.3 72.1 105.8 107.9 59.8 36.1 4.0 Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic Households BAME Households 29.5 209.0 27.0 83.9 28.4 98.6 155.9 38.4 1.6

0.0 <75% of District mean 75.0 75% to <125% of District mean 126.0 >125% District mean Source: 2011 Household Survey; Land Registry arc4 156 Tees Valley 2012 Strategic Housing Assessment Final Report

Table B40 Attributes of sub-areas – Stockton-on-Tees

Attribute % variation from District average value Stockton Stockton Yarm/ Stockton Ingleby Rural Inner Outer Preston/ on Tees Tenure Billingham Barwick Areas Core Core Thornaby Eaglescliffe Average Owner Occupied 106.4 126.6 121.3 60.7 103.7 76.8 119.7 69.4 Private Rented 61.4 113.4 96.3 224.6 70.3 101.4 100.9 9.1 Affordable (Social rented) 95.8 8.2 32.7 174.0 100.6 174.5 36.0 21.5 Property Type Detached 93.2 310.1 237.7 24.6 54.2 32.2 182.6 22.7 Semi 104.5 52.4 39.5 58.9 142.4 92.6 88.0 35.4 Terraced 111.0 33.3 88.6 196.6 67.1 170.3 42.4 20.1 Bungalow 82.9 31.2 115.0 24.5 151.2 101.2 117.4 9.8 Flat/Maisonette 95.6 12.0 21.2 263.1 75.4 129.9 62.2 11.9 No. Bedrooms 1-2 beds 85.1 32.5 62.5 181.9 99.4 134.1 65.4 31.3 3-4 beds 108.3 125.0 97.0 64.4 103.2 87.1 112.4 64.9 5+ beds 80.7 227.6 456.8 34.7 50.3 39.6 172.9 3.8 Property Prices 2008 Median 83.3 135.6 186.7 61.3 94.7 89.0 126.7 £132,000 2009 Median 82.7 126.9 146.1 57.7 92.3 82.6 123.1 £130,000 2010 Median 89.8 131.8 175.8 60.7 91.8 82.8 142.6 £128,000 Household Income <£300pw 91.0 39.0 42.7 163.9 101.1 153.4 55.4 39.6 Between £300 and £500pw 134.4 64.1 59.9 99.9 104.5 96.5 80.5 22.1 >£500pw 89.5 184.0 182.5 33.9 96.3 46.8 157.4 38.3 Economic Activity (16+) In Employment 101.8 132.4 115.0 76.8 98.5 84.7 109.8 62.5 In training 80.5 120.8 73.7 282.5 0.0 193.0 112.7 0.6 Unemployed 88.9 48.3 59.4 235.9 81.5 141.5 35.6 6.3 Retired 101.3 36.6 81.2 93.6 118.4 106.4 107.9 18.1 Look after home 59.7 147.5 159.0 92.3 109.6 68.4 121.1 3.4 Permanently sick, carer 108.7 19.8 42.1 169.3 89.2 169.8 52.4 9.1 Migration (prev 5 years) % all households moving 73.1 128.0 101.2 121.7 92.9 112.0 105.2 28.2 % all movers from: Within Sub-area 73.7 34.9 12.4 46.8 57.5 60.5 51.9 Within District 7.0 30.8 42.8 25.1 26.8 22.8 21.4 77.1 Within TV 11.9 15.2 13.8 18.2 4.5 13.0 9.7 11.1 North Yorkshire 0.4 3.9 3.1 1.1 3.0 1.8 5.8 2.6 County Durham 0.4 3.1 8.8 0.0 1.5 0.0 0.2 1.3 Elsewhere UK 6.4 12.1 17.6 6.4 6.4 1.9 8.9 7.2 Outside UK 0.0 0.0 1.5 2.3 0.3 0.0 2.1 0.7 Workplace In District 106.2 76.8 82.8 114.1 100.8 123.6 87.9 59.7 Elsewhere in TV5 82.2 155.2 108.7 80.8 96.3 64.8 124.3 28.7 Outside TV5 112.1 83.0 167.1 74.8 105.3 65.7 102.4 11.6 Household type Singles (under 60) 90.9 69.5 65.4 164.5 93.7 120.5 75.6 19.4 Couples (under 60) 92.4 91.9 127.8 90.3 112.4 82.0 104.9 18.3 Older Persons 113.7 33.2 63.9 92.6 117.4 106.8 96.8 20.1 Two parent families 107.9 177.3 142.0 45.0 87.2 76.9 132.7 28.7 Lone Parents 98.0 76.8 65.3 124.3 103.4 122.2 72.4 10.1 Other multi-person HH 51.4 130.0 109.7 219.6 64.9 168.9 38.2 3.4 Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic Households BAME Households 47.0 173.9 89.3 211.8 39.1 151.8 126.4 3.0

0.0 <75% of District mean 75.0 75% to <125% of District mean 126.0 >125% District mean Source: 2011 Household Survey; Land Registry

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Housing market function B.64 The household survey identified that the vast majority (88.1%) of households moving within the preceding 5 years had moved within the TV4 area (around 56,500 households), so the District can be described as a self-contained housing market area (70% is the threshold used by CLG in defining a housing market area). 11.2% (7,150 households) originated from outside the Tess Valley area. B.65 The CLG suggests that a housing market is self-contained if at least 70% of households moving originate from the same area. On this basis, each of the Local Authority Districts can be described as a self-contained housing market area on the basis of migration. Only one sub-area, Billingham in Stockton-on- Tees, can be described as self-contained, with 73.7% of moving households originating from the same sub-area. B.66 In two sub-areas, more than 20% of households originated from outside the TV5 area (Stockton Rural 31.3% and Loftus 22.0%). In-migrants accounted for between 15% and 20% of moving households in Inner Hartlepool (19.2%), Saltburn (18.7%), and Brotton (18.5%). B.67 Of households moving into the TV4 area:  Most moved into a house, particularly semi-detached (29.1%), terraced (28.5%) and detached (21.7%); and a further 16.1% moved into a flat/apartment and 4.5% to a bungalow. In Hartlepool, 43.3% moved into a terraced house and in Stockton, 30.6% moved into a detached and 32.4% into a semi-detached house;  48.9% moved into a three bedroom property, 21.2% into a property with more than three bedrooms and 29.9% into smaller properties with one (8.7%) or two bedrooms (21.2%). In Hartlepool. 54% moved into a three bedroom property and in Redcar and Cleveland 30.1% moved into a property with more than three bedrooms ;  53.8% moved into owner occupied properties; 35.8% into private renting and 10.4% moved into affordable (social rented/intermediate tenure) dwellings. In Middlesbrough,, 44.1% moved into private renting and in Hartlepool 34.6% moved into private renting;  Overall, 37.3% of in-migrant households moved to Stockton-on-Tees, 22% to Hartlepool, 21.6% to Redcar and Cleveland and 19.2% to Middlesbrough. 12.5% moved to the Inner Suburbs of Hartlepool, 10.4% to the Stockton Outer Core sub-areas, 7% to Ingleby Barwick (Stockton) and 7% to Redcar;  Couples with children accounted for 27.4% of in-migrant households, singles (under 60) 22.8%, couples with children 17.3%, lone parent families 12.8%, older singles and couples 9.6% and 10.1% were other household types;  41.4% of in-migrant household reference people (heads of household) were aged 16-39, a further 49.6% were aged 40-59 and 32.7% were aged 16-39 and 9% were aged 60 or over; arc4 158 Tees Valley 2012 Strategic Housing Assessment Final Report

 The majority of heads of household of in-migrant households were in employment (64.4% of which 42.2% were full-time, 17.1% part-time and 5.1% self-employed), with a further 12.1% looking after the home/carer, 10% wholly retired from work, 8.7% permanently sick/disabled 3.7% unemployed and available for work and 1.1% in full-time education;  42.3% of households had a weekly income of at least £500 (with 15.4% receiving at least £950 each week); a further 23.1% received between £300 and £500 each week and 34.8% received less than £300 each week;  84.1% of in-migrant heads of household worked in the TV4 area (21.1% in Stockton on Tees, 25.8% in Middlesbrough, 13.2% in Hartlepool and 13% in Redcar and Cleveland. A further 3.5% worked in Darlington, 3.6% in North Yorkshire, 2.1% in County Durham, 6.6% elsewhere in the UK and 0.3% outside the UK.;  The two main reasons for moving were to move to be closer to friends/family for social reasons or support (26%) and to closer to work/new job (25.5%). Other reasons included: divorce/separation (10.9%) to move closer to family/friends to give/receive support (11.6%) and wanting a larger property (6%). B.68 In summary, 11.9% of households moving in the past five years originated from outside the TV5 area of whom 3% were from elsewhere in the North East, 2.8% from Yorkshire and the Humber, 5.2% from elsewhere in the UK and 0.7% from outside the UK. B.69 Most moved into the private sector, with around one-third moving into private renting and a majority (51.5%) moved either for work or to be closer to friends/family. B.70 The majority of in-migrant households were singles and couples with children, headed by someone in employment and aged under 60. B.71 Notably, most household reference people in employment worked within Tees Valley and 42.3% had an income of at least £500 each week.

Housing market typology B.72 This study has provides up to date information on the housing stock in the TV4 area and how the stock profile varies by sub-area is presented in data tabulations and sub-area summaries accompanying this report. B.73 Across the TV4 area there are a total of 247,661 dwellings of which 12,175 are vacant, resulting in a total of 235,486 occupied dwellings. Overall, across the TV4 area:  77.4% of properties are houses, 11.8% are flats/maisonettes, 10.3% are bungalows and 0.5% are other property types (e.g. caravans);  9.1% have one bedroom, 25.8% have two bedrooms, 47.4% have three bedrooms and 17.7% have four or more bedrooms;  9.7% of properties were built before 1919, a further 16.7% were built between 1919 and 1944, 24.1% between 1945 and 1964, 28% between 1965 and 1984 and 21.5% have been built since 1985; arc4 159 Tees Valley 2012 Strategic Housing Assessment Final Report

 66.2% of properties are owner-occupied, 22.6% are rented from a social landlord, 9.4% are private rented and 1.7% are intermediate tenure (e.g. shared ownership);

Summary of market characteristics B.74 A range of material has been gathered to help identify market drivers and the characteristics of housing market areas across the TV4 area and linkages with other areas. B.75 An analysis of household mobility suggests that of households moving in the past 5 years, 88.8% of households move within the TV4 area 11.2% had moved into the area, have moved into the District, of whom 3% were from elsewhere in the North East, 2.8% from Yorkshire and the Humber, 5.2% from elsewhere in the UK and 0.7% from outside the UK. A majority (64.4%) of households moving into the TV4 area were headed by someone who was economically active and moving for work was identified as a key driver for moving. 42.3% had a weekly income in excess of £500, 41.4% of household reference people were in the 16-39 age group and 49.6% in the 40-59 age group. B.76 In terms of travel to work patterns, 84.1% of residents work in the TV4 area and 15.9% commute out to work and the TV4 area can be described as a self contained functional housing market. B.77 Individual Local Authority Districts are all self-contained in terms of migration but not in terms of travel to work as the proportion of residents working in the same Local Authority District is below the 70% CLG threshold for self- containment

Step 4.2 Trends and drivers

B.78 The main drivers affecting housing markets relate to demography, economy and dwelling stock attributes. Key observations relating to Tees Valley are now summarised. B.79 Demographic drivers:  An increasing population, with ONS population projections predicting a population in 2033 of 601,700 compared with 563,300 in 2011, an increase of 38,400 (6.8%);  Over the next few decades, there will be a ‘demographic shift’ with the number (and proportion) of older people increasing. There are currently 94,000 people aged 65 and over and 44,000 aged 75 and over. 2008-based ONS projections suggest an increase of 50,000 people aged 65 and over and 31,000 aged 75+ by 2033;

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 CLG trend-based projections25 indicate that the number of households in the TV4 area is expected to increase by 16.2% from 234,000 in 2008 to 272,000 in 2033. This represents an annual increase of around 1,520 households. The rate of increase is predicted to be 17.9% for Hartlepool, 13.8% for Middlesbrough, 8.6% in Redcar and Cleveland and 22.8% in Stockton on Tees;  The 2011 household survey indicates that the largest household groups are couples with children (28%), single adults (under 60) 19.1%, couples (under 60 with no children) (16.4%), lone parents (11.2%), singles over 60 (10.9%), couples over 60 (10.4%) and 3.8% are other household types; and  Regional household projections suggest that the proportion of singles and other household types is likely to increase in the future. B.80 Economic drivers: B.81 The following economic drivers underpin the operation of the TV4 market area:  58.4% of household reference people are economically active and are in employment according to the 2011 household survey; a further 19.8% are retired; 8.9% are permanently sick/disabled; 6.1% are either looking after the home, in training or provide full-time care; 6% are unemployed and available for work; and 0.7% are in full-time education/training;  87.9% of people in employment work within the TV4 area. Of those working outside the TV5 area, 2.6% worked in North Yorkshire, 3.1% in County Durham, 5.4% elsewhere in the UK and 1.0% outside the UK;  According to the ONS Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, lower quartile earnings in 2011 across the TV4 area were £17,581 which compares with £17,316 for the North East region and £18,720 for England. Median incomes were £23,722, compared with a regional median of £23,447 and a national median of £26,395. Within the TV4 are there was a degree of variation in lower quartile and median incomes;  There is considerable income polarisation across the TV4 area, with 44.6% of households receiving less than £300 each week and 33.7% receiving at least £500 each week. B.82 Current dwelling stock:  77.4% of properties are houses, 10.3% are bungalows, 11.8% are flats/maisonettes, and 0.5% are other property types (e.g. caravans);  9% have one bedroom, 25.7% have two bedrooms, 47.4% have three bedrooms and 17.8% have four or more bedrooms;  33.0% of properties were built before 1919, a further 11.2% were built between 1919 and 1944, 14.1% between 1945 and 1964, 21% between 1965 and 1984 and 20.6% have been built since 1985;  Tenure profile varies across the TV4 area (Figure 4.4). The proportion of owner occupied dwellings is highest in Stockton-on-Tees (69.4%) and

25 CLG 2008-based household projections arc4 161 Tees Valley 2012 Strategic Housing Assessment Final Report

Redcar and Cleveland (68.4%). social renting is highest in Middlesbrough (28.3%) and Hartlepool (26.6%) and private renting is highest in Hartlepool (11%) and Middlesbrough (9.3%)  There is a particularly strong aspiration for houses.

Step 4.3 Issues for future policy/strategy

B.83 This chapter has provided a wealth of material to assess the current housing market. This material assists in identifying key strategic themes which are presented in Chapter 6 of the main report.

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Technical Appendix C: The Future Housing Market

Introduction

C.1 The purpose of this section is to review the future housing market in the TV4 area and provides information relating to the following stages of the SHMA process:

Stage 1: Projecting changes in future number of households

Stage 2: Future economic performance

Stage 3: Future affordability

Stage 4: Bringing the evidence together

C.2 Material in this chapter provides a basis for the following SHMA core outputs:

Core Output 3 Future households

Stage 1: projecting changes in future numbers of households C.3 Estimates of the number of future households can be derived from CLG household projections which are based on Office for National Statistics population projections. CLG 2008-based household projections suggest that the number of households across the TV4 area is expected to increase from 234,000 in 2008 to 262,000 by 2026 (an increase of 11.9%) and to 272,000 by 2033 (an increase of 16.2%). This equates to an average annual increase of around 1,520 households to 2033. C.4 Across the TV5 area, the number of households is expected to increase from 278,000 in 2008 to 326,000 in 2033, an increase of 17.3% or 1,920 each year.

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Figure 4.5 Projected household change 2008-2033 (TV5 area)

Source: CLG sub-national household projections 2008-based

Table C1 Change in household composition in the TV5 area 2008 to 2033 % Tees Valley 2008 2033 change 2008-33 Household types (thousands): One person 93 132 41.9 Couple and no other adult 118 130 10.2 Couple and one or more other adult 28 15 -46.4 Lone parent (with or without other adult) 27 40 48.1 Other 15 11 -26.7 Total 281 328 17.0 Source: CLG sub-national household projections 2008-based

Household change and tenure requirements C.5 Tees Valley Unlimited has prepared detailed analysis of household change over the period 2008 to 2026 (which covers the years in the Local Development Framework plans) based on CLG household projections. This work breaks the household projections down to household type and household type/age of household reference person (HRP or head of household). covering the Core Strategy using CLG household projection data. C.6 From the outset, it is important to note that household projections do not automatically translate into housing targets. Determining an appropriate housing target is much more complex than simply reflecting household projections. Other factors, such as deliverability constraints and strategic policies also need to be taken into account. On balance, targets need to be set arc4 164 Tees Valley 2012 Strategic Housing Assessment Final Report

with the strategic vision of the Councils in mind, coupled with a realistic assessment of what is deliverable and over what timeframe. C.7 The CLG projections are purely trend-based and take no account of locally implemented proposals or policy changes. However, they do offer an insight into how household change may occur within Tees Valley. The 2011 household survey has established the tenure profile of households by age group of household reference person in 2011. Assuming the proportions of households in particular tenures by age group stay the same, it is possible to estimate likely household change broken down by open market and affordable tenures. This is helpful in gauging the likely proportions requiring different tenure options. C.8 Tables C2 to C6 show household projections by age band for each TV4 district and for the TV4 area; the tenure profile by age band in 2011 by district; and the predicted impact of changes in the profile of HRPs on overall household numbers and tenure requirements over the period 2011 to 2026. C.9 In summary, these tables illustrate:  The total number of households is expected to increase by 24,000 across the TV4 area and half of this increase will be in Stockton on Tees (attributed to population projections, that feed into the household projections, being trend-based and Stockton had higher net inward migration than the other districts);  Most of this increase (20,000) will be from households with a HRP aged 65 and over;  Analysis suggests an increase of 1,600 households each year across the TV4 area, with 1126 for open market and 475 affordable/intermediate tenure dwellings. This is virtually the same number of affordable requirements as the independent modelling of affordable requirements suggests.

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Table C2 Household change in Hartlepool 2011-2026 HRP Band Year Change 2011 2016 2021 2026 2011-26 15-34 8000 9000 9000 8000 0 35-44 7000 6000 7000 8000 1000 45-64 15000 15000 15000 15000 0 65+ 10000 11000 12000 13000 3000 Total 40000 41000 43000 44000 4000

HRPBand Tenure 2011 (% by HRP Band) Owner Private Affordable, Occupied rented Intermediate Subtotal 15-34 49.3 24.9 25.8 100.0 35-44 62.6 8.5 29.0 100.0 45-64 69.4 10.8 19.8 100.0 65+ 63.1 2.6 34.4 100.0 Total 62.6 11.2 26.2 100.0

HRPBand Change 2011-2026 (15yrs) Owner Private Affordable, Occupied rented Intermediate Subtotal 15-34 0 0 0 0 35-44 626 85 290 1000 45-64 0 0 0 0 65+ 1892 77 1031 3000 Total 2518 161 1321 4000 Annual 168 11 88 267 % Market 67.0 % Affordable 33.0

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Table C3 Household change in Middlesbrough 2011-2026 HRP Band Year Change 2011 2016 2021 2026 2011-26 15-34 13000 15000 15000 14000 1000 35-44 10000 9000 11000 12000 2000 45-64 21000 21000 20000 18000 -3000 65+ 15000 16000 18000 19000 4000 Total 59000 61000 62000 64000 5000

HRPBand Tenure 2011 (% by HRP Band) Owner Private Affordable, Occupied rented Intermediate Subtotal 15-34 46.0 25.5 28.5 100.0 35-44 64.7 11.3 24.0 100.0 45-64 68.7 4.9 26.4 100.0 65+ 65.1 2.5 32.4 100.0 Total 63.6 9.0 27.4 100.0

HRPBand Change 2011-2026 (15yrs) Owner Private Affordable, Occupied rented Intermediate Subtotal 15-34 460 255 285 1000 35-44 1294 225 480 2000 45-64 -2060 -147 -792 -3000 65+ 2604 100 1296 4000 Total 3182 449 1369 5000 Annual 212 30 91 333 % Market 72.6 % Affordable 27.4

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Table C4 Household change in Redcar and Cleveland 2011-2026 HRP Band Year Change 2011 2016 2021 2026 2011-26 15-34 9000 10000 10000 9000 0 35-44 9000 8000 9000 10000 1000 45-64 22000 22000 21000 20000 -2000 65+ 18000 20000 21000 23000 5000 Total 58000 60000 61000 62000 4000

HRPBand Tenure 2011 (by HPR Age Band) Owner Private Affordable, Occupied rented Intermediate Subtotal 15-34 48.7 29.4 21.9 100.0 35-44 72.5 9.7 17.8 100.0 45-64 74.9 5.7 19.4 100.0 65+ 67.4 2.3 30.4 100.0 Total 69.5 9.0 21.5 100.0

HRPBand Change 2011-2026 (15yrs) Owner Private Affordable, Occupied rented Intermediate Subtotal 15-34 0 0 0 0 35-44 725 97 178 1000 45-64 -1499 -113 -388 -2000 65+ 3368 113 1519 5000 Total 2594 97 1309 4000 Annual 173 6 87 267 % Market 67.3 % Affordable 32.7

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Table C5 Household change in Stockton on Tees 2011-2026 HRP Band Year Change 2011 2016 2021 2026 2011-26 15-34 15000 17000 17000 17000 2000 35-44 14000 13000 14000 16000 2000 45-64 31000 32000 32000 31000 0 65+ 21000 24000 26000 29000 8000 Total 81000 86000 89000 93000 12000

HRPBand Tenure 2011 (% by HRP Band) Owner Private Affordable, Occupied rented Intermediate Subtotal 15-34 59.3 25.9 14.9 100.0 35-44 74.7 9.0 16.4 100.0 45-64 75.1 5.9 19.0 100.0 65+ 64.7 2.8 32.4 100.0 Total 70.9 9.1 20.0 100.0

Change 2011-2026 HRPBand (15yrs) Owner Private Affordable, Occupied rented Intermediate Subtotal 15-34 1185 517 298 2000 35-44 1493 179 328 2000 45-64 0 0 0 0 65+ 5178 226 2596 8000 Total 7856 922 3221 12000 Annual 524 61 215 800 % Market 73.2 % Affordable 26.8

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Table C6 Household change in TV4 area 2011-2026 HRP Band Year Change 2011 2016 2021 2026 2011-26 15-34 45000 51000 51000 48000 3000 35-44 40000 36000 41000 46000 6000 45-64 89000 90000 88000 84000 -5000 65+ 64000 71000 77000 84000 20000 Total 238000 248000 257000 262000 24000

HRPBand Tenure 2011 (% by HRP Band) Owner Private Affordable, Occupied rented Intermediate Subtotal 15-34 51.5 26.3 22.2 100.0 35-44 69.6 9.6 20.8 100.0 45-64 72.6 6.4 21.0 100.0 65+ 65.3 2.5 32.2 100.0 Total 66.1 9.7 24.2 100.0

HRPBand Change 2011-2026 (15yrs) Owner Private Affordable, Occupied rented Intermediate Subtotal 15-34 1645 772 583 3000 35-44 4138 586 1276 6000 45-64 -3559 -260 -1180 -5000 65+ 13042 516 6442 20000 Total 16150 1630 7221 25000 Annual 1077 109 481 1667 % Market 71.1 % Affordable 28.9

IMPORTANT NOTE: This table is based on household projection data which has been based on population projection data which in turn are based on historic trends. These historic trends reflected relatively high levels in-migration into Stockton-on- Tees compared with other areas of Tees Valley.

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C.10 Table C7 summarises the predicted household change based on CLG 2008- based household projections and assumes the tenure profile of households by age group of HRP remains constant over this period. Overall, analysis suggests around 70% of household growth should be accommodated in open market dwelling stock and 30% in affordable/intermediate tenure dwelling stock.

Table C7 Household change in TV4 area 2011-2026

Location Household Tenure change Affordable/ 2011-26 Market Intermediate Total Hartlepool Total 2679 1321 4000 Annual 179 88 267 % 67.0 33.0 100

Middlesbrough Total 3631 1369 5000 Annual 242 91 333 % 72.6 27.4 100

Redcar and Cleveland Total 2691 1309 4000 Annual 179 87 267 % 67.3 32.7 100

Stockton on Tees Total 8778 3221 12000 Annual 585 215 800 % 73.2 26.8 100

TV4 Total 17779 7221 25000 Annual 1185 481 1667 % 71.1 28.9 100 Source: TVU analysis; 2011 household survey IMPORTANT NOTE: This table is based on household projection data which has been based on population projection data which in turn are based on historic trends. These historic trends reflected relatively high levels in-migration into Stockton-on- Tees compared with other areas of Tees Valley.

C.11 It is important to reiterate that this analysis focuses on household numbers and these do not necessarily relate to dwelling targets. C.12 Another important trend is the growth in the number of older people living in the TV4 area. By 2033, ONS 2008-based population projections indicate there will be 144,000 residents aged 65 or over compared with 94,000 in 2010. This demographic change will have significant policy implications including the range of properties required and the increased level of support and assistance which will be required. In terms of new housing provision, the life time homes standard will need considering as part of the Local Development Framework arc4 171 Tees Valley 2012 Strategic Housing Assessment Final Report

suite of documents. Asking for a minimum percentage of new homes to be developed using these standards will avoid unnecessary and costly adaptations in the future, and allow older people to enjoy their home, which is flexible in meeting their requirements as they get older. New markets should be explored given that around 22.4% interested in renting sheltered accommodation, 18.9% renting extra care accommodation and 17.7% renting from a housing association and 9% buying sheltered accommodation. There is going to be an increased requirement for support and assistance in the home to be met through a range of agencies and initiatives such as ‘handyperson’ schemes.

Concluding comments C.13 Various data have been modelled to consider the potential change in the number of households and population of the TV4 area. Although population and the number of households is expected to increase, this is primarily fuelled by a considerable growth in the numbers of older people.

Stage 2: Future economic performance

C.14 To date, the future economic trajectory of Tees Valley been guided by the Regional Economic Strategy. Tees Valley now has in place a Local Economic Partnership which will provide strategic leadership and drive to strengthen the sub-regional economy through a Local Investment Plan. C.15 Consideration of strategic sub-regional housing matters takes place through Tees Valley Unlimited as the LEP for the sub-region. The LEP has recently formed an advisory group known as the Place Group which comprises the Chief Executives of the principal Registered Providers together with the Local Authority Directors of Place. The Group focuses on strategic matters and the relationship between housing, construction and the local economy and identifies future regeneration priorities for the sub-region. Whilst the social aspects of housing provision are acknowledged the group is primarily concerned with the economic aspects of housing development on a strategic basis. Wider matters of local authority housing policy and social housing provision and management within a sub-regional context are processed through regular meetings of the Tees Valley Local Authority Heads of Housing and Housing Service Managers.

Stage 3: Future affordability

C.16 The ability of households to access affordable accommodation in the future will be significantly influenced by prevailing market prices, interest rate changes and capacity in the social rented sector. arc4 172 Tees Valley 2012 Strategic Housing Assessment Final Report

Market prices and interest rate changes C.17 The CLG guidance comments that future house prices cannot be simply projected on the basis of past trends. Furthermore, predicting prices is an inherently uncertain process since changes in house prices are cyclical and periods of rapid growth can be followed by slower rates of growth and/or decline. C.18 It is possible to undertake some elementary modelling work which assesses the likely impact of price and interest rate changes on relative affordability. Table C8 presents historic market values across the TV4 area and how much mortgages on a median property price would have varied assuming a fixed interest mortgage based on a 10% deposit. C.19 Three future scenarios are modelled:  Scenario A: A continuous fall in prices through to 2015;  Scenario B: A short fall and recovery in 2013;  Scenario C: A sustained recovery starting in 2012.

Table C8 Cost of repayment mortgage based on different house price change and interest rate assumptions

House Interest Median Price 90% LTV Rate Price Change 5.49% Historic Market Values 2009 £116,950 £105,255 £646 2010 £115,044 £103,540 £635 2011 £111,041 £99,937 £613 Scenario A: Continuous Fall 2012 -5% £105,489 £94,940 £582 2013 -5% £100,215 £90,193 £553 2014 -5% £95,204 £85,683 £526 2015 -5% £90,444 £81,399 £499 Scenario B: Short Fall and recovery 2012 -5.0% £105,489 £94,940 £582 2013 +1% £106,544 £95,889 £588 2014 +2% £108,675 £97,807 £600 2015 +3% £111,935 £100,741 £618 Scenario C: Sustained recovery 2012 +1% £112,151 £100,936 £619 2013 +5% £117,759 £105,983 £650 2014 +5% £123,647 £111,282 £683 2015 +7.5% £132,920 £119,628 £734 Source: Land Registry; BBC Online mortgage calculator. Mortgage deals available in Feb 2012 (example used based on Natwest 5.49% 5 year fixed rate with 10% deposit).

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C.20 Figure C2 indicates how the house price scenarios would impact on monthly mortgage repayments (assuming fixed interest rates). For example, with Scenario A (continuous fall), property monthly repayments (on a 5.49% mortgage) would fall from £582 to £499 (and property values would fall by around £15,000 or 14.3%).

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Figure C2 Monthly mortgage costs based on alternative scenarios

£800

£750

£700

£650

£600

£550

£500 Historic Monthly Mortgage £450 Scenario A £400 Scenario B £350 Scenario C £300 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

C.21 This modelling is purely illustrative and shows how different scenarios would impact on the cost of repaying a mortgage. However, the ability of households to raise a mortgage is affected by a reduced range of products, tighter lending criteria and the need to have a substantial deposit.

Stage 4: Summary and key messages C.22 This appendix has considered the future housing market in Tees Valley and reflected on future household numbers, the economic growth agenda, and future affordability. C.23 In terms of the range of dwellings to be delivered, the SHMA has gathered a body of quantitative evidence and views of stakeholders which points to:  A need to maintain the delivery of traditional houses in good locations;  The ageing population in Tees Valley as a major market driver. Bungalows are in short supply and any additional market provision would be useful, along with retirement apartments in urban and village centres close to amenities. Similarly, there is a need to diversify the range of older persons’ provision including the development of extra care schemes within the sub- region; and C.24 The key facilitator of future economic development will be the Local Enterprise Partnership which seeks to drive enterprise, innovation and growth in the sub- regional economy.

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Technical Appendix D: Housing need calculations Underpins core outputs 4,5,6,7

Summary of contents

Stage 1: Current housing need (gross backlog) Step 1.1 Homeless households and those in temporary accommodation Step 1.2 Overcrowding and concealed households Step 1.3 Other groups Step 1.4 Total current housing need (gross) Stage 2: Future housing need (gross annual estimate) Step 2.1 New household formation (gross per year) Step 2.2 Proportion of new households unable to buy or rent in the market Step 2.3 Existing households falling in to need Step 2.4 Total newly-arising housing need (gross per year) Stage 3: Affordable housing supply Step 3.1 Affordable dwellings occupied by households in need Step 3.2 Surplus stock Step 3.3 Committed supply of new affordable housing Step 3.4 Units to be taken out of management Step 3.5 Total affordable housing stock available Step 3.6 Total supply of social re-lets (net) Step 3.7 Annual supply of intermediate affordable housing available for re-let or resale at sub-market levels Step 3.8 Annual supply of affordable housing Stage 4: Housing requirements of households in need Stage 5: Estimate of affordable requirements Step 5.1 Net shortfall Step 5.2 Gross shortfall

Introduction

D.1 A working definition of housing need is ‘the quantity of housing required for households who are unable to access suitable housing without financial assistance’. The 2011 Household Survey and secondary data provide a robust range of information to quantify housing need in the TV4 area and the extent to which additional affordable housing is required. D.2 Housing needs analysis and affordable housing modelling has been prepared in accordance with CLG guidance at sub-area, District and TV4 area. In summary, the model reviews in a step-wise process: arc4 176 Tees Valley 2012 Strategic Housing Assessment Final Report

Stage 1: Current housing need (gross backlog) Stage 2: Future housing need Stage 3: Affordable housing supply Stage 4: Housing requirements of households in need Stage 5: Bringing the evidence together D.3 CLG household projections suggest an increase of 11,000 households over the period 2008 to 2033, from 278,000 in 2008 to 289,000 in 2033. This equates to an increase of 0.8% of households each year. This is lower than the national estimate of 1.7% (based on the five year period 2005/6 to 2009/10 as reported in the English Housing Survey/Survey of English Housing. D.4 Table D1 summarises the different steps taken in assessing housing need and evidencing the extent to which there is a surplus or shortfall in affordable housing across the TV4 area by District. Please note that in Stage 1, step 1.4 reports the total number of households in need and avoids double counting as in some cases households have more than one housing need.

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Table D1 CLG Needs Assessment Summary by District

(Exc. Redcar and Stockton on Darlington) Hartlepool Middlesbrough Cleveland Tees Stage1: CURRENT NEED Homeless households and those in temporary accommodation Annual requirement 2265 266 886 603 510 Overcrowding and concealed households Current need 2752 417 422 1050 863 Other groups Current need 15646 3894 3799 3301 4652 Total no. of housholds with Total current housing need (gross) one or more needs 18321 4327 4549 4095 5351

A. TOTAL cannot afford open market (buying or renting) Total 12783 3226 2973 2681 3903 Stage 2: FUTURE NEED

New household formation (Gross per year) 1884 319 455 476 633

Number of new households requiring affordable housing 1632 267 410 381 574 Existing households falling into need Annual requirement 599 119 182 180 118

Total newly-arising housing need (gross each year) 2.2 + 2.3 2232 386 592 561 692 Stage 3: AFFORDABLE HOUSING SUPPLY

Affordable dwellings occupied by households in need (based on 1.4) 6953 2101 1546 1450 1856 Vacancy rate <2% so no Surplus stock surplus stock assumed 0 0 0 0 0

Committed supply of new affordable units Annual 0 0 0 0 Units to be taken out of management None assumed 0 0 0 0 0 Total affordable housing stock available 3.1+3.2+3.3-3.4 6953 2101 1546 1450 1856 Annual supply of social re-lets (net) Annual Supply (3 yr ave) 2413 500 680 695 538

Annual supply of intermediate affordable housing available for re-let or resale at sub-market levels Annual Supply 49 23 8 15 3 Annual supply of affordable housing 3.6+3.7 2462 523 688 710 541 Stage 4: ESTIMATE OF ANNUAL HOUSING NEED Total backlog need 1.4A-3.5 5830 1125 1427 1231 2047 Quota to reduce over 5 years (20%) 20% Annual backlog reduction Annual requirement 1166 225 285 246 409 Newly-arising need 2.4 2232 386 592 561 692 Total annual affordable need 4.3+4.4 3397 611 877 807 1102 Annual social rented capacity 3.8 2462 523 688 710 541 Net annual shortfall Net 936 89 189 97 561 Source 2011 Household Survey; RSL Core Lettings and Sales data IMPORTANT NOTE: There is some information available on committed supply which is presented in Table D9 but the timescale and nature of dwellings to be built is not certain. Because of these uncertainties, the basic model reviews overall requirements excluding committed new supply but the potential impact of new supply on overall net requirements is discussed further in Para D38.

Stage 1: Current need

D.5 A working definition of housing need is ‘the quantity of housing required for households who are unable to access suitable housing without financial assistance’. The SHMA Guidance suggests types of housing that should be considered unsuitable, as summarised in Table D2.

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Table D2 Summary of current housing need in the TV4 area

Middles Redcar & Stockton- TV4 Category Factor Hartlepool brough Cleveland on-Tes Total N1 Under notice, real threat of notice or lease coming to an Homeless households end 266 886 511 602 2,265 or with insecure tenure N2 Too expensive, and in receipt of housing benefit or in arrears due to expense 611 513 800 789 2,713 N3 Overcrowded according to the 'bedroom standard' model 417 423 863 1,049 2,752 N4 Too difficult to maintain 847 725 1,311 1,314 4,197 N5 Couples, people with children and single adults over Mismatch of housing 25 sharing a kitchen, bathroom need and dwellings or WC with another household 430 481 556 202 1,669 N6 Household containing people with mobility impairment or other special needs living in unsuitable accommodation 1,047 1,381 1,484 905 4,817 N7 Lacks a bathroom, kitchen or inside WC and household does not have resource to make Dwelling amenities and fit 65 48 25 0 138 condition N8 Subject to major disrepair or unfitness and household does not have resource to make fit 491 89 334 409 1,323 N9 Harassment or threats of harassment from neighbours or Social needs others living in the vicinity which cannot be resolved except through a move 1,224 1,253 1,255 795 4,527 Total Need 4,326 4,549 5,350 4,095 18,320 Total Households 39,932 56,934 79,087 59,534 235,487 % households in need 10.8 8.0 6.8 6.9 7.8 Note: A household may have more than one housing need.

Step 1.1 Homeless households and those in temporary accommodation

D.6 CLG SHMA guidance suggests that information on homeless households and those in priority need who are currently housed in temporary accommodation should be considered in needs modelling. The scale of need from these types of household can be derived from several sources. D.7 Homelessness statistics for 2010/1126 indicate that a total of 451 decisions were made on households declaring themselves as homeless across the TV4 area (Table D3). Of these households, 185 were classified as homeless and in priority need. Over the three years 2008/9, 2009/10 and 2010/11, an

26 CLG Homeless Statistics Table 627: Local Authorities' action under the homelessness provisions of the 1985 and 1996 Housing Acts, by district arc4 179 Tees Valley 2012 Strategic Housing Assessment Final Report

average of 499 decisions have been made across the TV4 area and 284 households have been declared as homeless and in priority need.

Table D3 Homeless decisions and acceptances 2008/9 to 2010/11 District 2008/09 2009-10 2001/11 Three year total Three year Average Accepted Accepted Accepted Accepted Accepted Decisions as Decisions as Decisions as Decisions as Decisions as made homeless made homeless made homeless made homeless made homeless Hartlepool 46 28 31 18 29 15 106 61 35 20 Middlesbrough 82 30 29 8 163 79 274 117 91 39 Redcar & Cleveland 77 55 65 21 35 11 177 87 59 29 Stockton-on-Tees 541 416 209 105 189 66 939 587 313 196 TV4 Total 746 529 334 152 416 171 1496 852 499 284 Source: CLG Homelessness Statistics D.8 The household survey identified a total of 2,265 households who were either under threat of homelessness or were living in temporary accommodation across the TV4 area. This figure has been used in needs assessment modelling.

Step 1.2 Overcrowding and concealed households D.9 The extent to which households are overcrowded is measured using the ‘bedroom standard’. This allocates a standard number of bedrooms to each household in accordance with its age/sex/marital status composition. A separate bedroom is allocated to each married couple, any other person aged 21 or over, each pair of adolescents aged 10-20 of the same sex and each pair of children under 10. Any unpaired person aged 10-20 is paired if possible with a child under 10 of the same sex, or, if that is not possible, is given a separate bedroom, as is any unpaired child under 10. This standard is then compared with the actual number of bedrooms (including bedsits) available for the sole use of the household. D.10 Analysis identifies 2,752 households who are currently living in overcrowded accommodation or are concealed households and are intending on moving in the next 5 years (Hartlepool 611, Middlesbrough 513, Redcar and Cleveland 863 and Stockton-on-Tees 1,049).

Step 1.3 Other groups D.11 Table D2 identified a series of households who were in housing need for other reasons including the property is too expensive, difficult to maintain, household containing people with mobility impairment/special need, lacking amenities, disrepair and harassment. D.12 A total of 15,646 households across the TV4 area (Hartlepool 3,894, Middlesbrough 3,799, Redcar and Cleveland 3,301 and Stockton 4,652) were identified to be experiencing one or more of these needs factors and intending to move in the next five years. This figure is taken as the five year backlog of need from other groups. arc4 180 Tees Valley 2012 Strategic Housing Assessment Final Report

Step 1.4 Total current housing need and financial testing D.13 Having established the scale of need in Steps 1.1, 1.2 and 1.3, the extent to which households could afford open market prices was considered. D.14 An ‘affordability threshold’ of households was calculated which takes into account household income, equity and savings. The household income component of the affordability threshold is based on 3.5 x gross annual income. D.15 The affordability threshold was then tested against median property prices and the cost of privately renting. Median prices at sub-area level for the financial year 2010/11 were derived using Land Registry address-level data (Table D4). Usually, SHMA modelling uses lower quartile prices but across Tees Valley there are substantial amounts of low quality, low value dwellings in less desirable areas and likely to require significant investment to improve their condition. Therefore it was deemed more appropriate to use median figures as a more accurate reflection of the cost of moving into appropriate open market housing. D.16 Information on prevailing private sector rents was obtained from a search of lettings during the winter of 2011 and summarised in Table D5. The cost of letting a property according to the number of bedrooms required by a household was factored into affordability testing. D.17 Using evidence from the household survey, we have identified the extent to which households identified in Steps 1.1 could afford open market prices; and based on Steps 1.2 to 1.3, using evidence from the household survey, we have identified the extent to which households are in housing need in the TV4 authorities and whether they want to move to offset that need. A total figure for this is 18,321 households (Hartlepool 4,327, Middlesbrough 4,549, Redcar and Cleveland 4,095 and Stockton 5,351). The extent to which these households in need can afford open market solutions to address their need has been assessed.

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Table D4 Median prices by sub-area (Jan 2010–March 2011) District Sub-area Median Price (£) Hartlepool Inner Suburbs £85,000 Outer Suburbs £145,000 Rural £249,995 Town Centre £73,500 Middlesbrough East £72,000 Greater Hemlington £120,000 North £70,000 South £157,000 West £121,000 Redcar and Cleveland Brotton £110,000 Greater Eston North £77,250 Greater Eston South £131,450 Guisborough £139,498 Loftus £80,000 Redcar £120,000 Saltburn £152,000 Skelton £117,250 Stockton on Tees Billingham £110,000 Ingleby Barwick £170,000 Rural Areas £215,000 Stockton Inner Core £76,000 Stockton Outer Core £120,000 Thornaby £110,000 Yarm, Preston, Eaglescliffe £167,405 Total TV4 £120,000 Source: Land Registry

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Table D5 Private rental prices by property type, size and market area

Median Median Median No. Monthly Rent No. Monthly Rent No. Monthly Rent Sub-area Beds (£) Sub-area Beds (£) Sub-area Beds (£) Billingham 2 £800 Loftus 2 £550 South 2 £575 3 £525 3 £535 3 £525 4 £850 North 1 £390 4 £1,250 5 £1,900 2 £442 5 £800 6 £2,100 3 £318 6 £350 Brotton 1 £450 4 £256 Stockton Inner Core 1 £385 2 £350 5 £256 2 £495 3 £450 6 £256 3 £550 East 2 £500 7 £256 4 £700 3 £495 Outer Suburbs 2 £410 5 £750 Greater Eston North 1 £460 3 £650 6 £412 2 £425 4 £650 7 £654 3 £478 5 £1,300 8 £650 Greater Hemlington 1 £400 Redcar 2 £475 Stockton Outer Core 1 £388 2 £513 3 £550 2 £453 3 £663 4 £700 3 £495 4 £995 5 £790 4 £725 Guisborough 1 £375 Rural 2 £525 Thornaby 1 £410 2 £550 3 £695 2 £475 3 £525 4 £825 3 £525 4 £750 Rural Areas 1 £450 4 £550 5 £1,100 2 £450 Town Centre 1 £320 Ingleby Barwick 2 £508 3 £575 2 £350 3 £638 4 £850 3 £400 4 £750 7 £2,500 4 £420 5 £2,490 Saltburn 1 £412 West 2 £500 Inner Suburbs 1 £350 2 £480 3 £595 2 £463 3 £600 5 £950 3 £525 4 £675 Yarm/Preston/ 1 £495 Skelton 3 £525 Eaglescliffe 2 £550 4 £700 3 £650 4 £1,498 5 £1,700

Source: internet search of private lettings agents December 2011

Summary of Stage 1: Current need

D.18 In summary, of the households identified in Steps 1.1, 1.2 and 1.3, 12,783 households across the TV4 area (Hartlepool 3,226, Middlesbrough 2,973, Redcar and Cleveland 2,681 and Stockton-on-Tees 3,903) could not afford to move in the open market to offset their need.

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Step 2.1 New household formation (gross per year) D.19 CLG household projections suggest an increase of 11,000 households over the period 2008 to 2033, from 278,000 in 2008 to 289,000 in 2033. This equates to an increase of 0.8% of households each year. This is lower than the national estimate of 1.7% (based on the five year period 2005/6 to 2009/10 as reported in the English Housing Survey/Survey of English Housing. D.20 The needs analysis assumes a 0.8% gross household formation rate of 1,884 households (319 Hartlepool, 455 Middlesbrough, 476 Redcar and Cleveland and 633 Stockton on Tees)

Step 2.2 New households unable to buy or rent in the open market D.21 Analysis of median market prices relative to the income/savings of households expecting to form in the next five years indicates that 86.6% could not afford median house prices or private sector rents. D.22 Therefore, the total number of newly-forming households who could not afford open market prices or rents across the TV4 area is calculated to be 1,632 and broken down by district in Table D6:

Table D6 Number of newly-forming households who could not afford open market prices/rents District Number of newly-forming households who could not afford open market prices/rents Hartlepool 267 Middlesbrough 410 Redcar and Cleveland 381 Stockton on Tees 574 TV4 1632

Step 2.3 Existing households expected to fall into need D.23 An estimate of the number of existing households falling into need each year has been established by drawing upon the RSL lettings data. This suggests that over the period 2008/9, 2009/10 and 2010/11, a total of 1,798 households (an average of 599 each year) moved into the social rented sector because they had fallen into housing need and were homeless. The breakdown by District is summarised in Table D7.

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Table D7 Existing households falling into need District 3 yr average 2008/9 to 2010/11 Hartlepool 119 Middlesbrough 182 Redcar and Cleveland 180 Stockton on Tees 118 TV4 599

Step 2.4 Total newly arising housing need (gross per year) D.24 Total newly arising need is calculated to be 2,232 households each year across the TV4 area.

Stage 3: Affordable housing supply D.25 The CLG model reviews the supply of affordable units, taking into account how many households in need are already in affordable accommodation, stock surpluses, committed supply of new affordable dwellings and dwellings being taken out of management (for instance pending demolition or being used for decanting).

Step 3.1 Affordable dwellings occupied by households in need D.26 This is an important consideration in establishing the net levels of housing need as the movement of these households within affordable housing will have a nil effect in terms of housing need27. D.27 A total of 6,953 households are current occupiers of affordable housing in need (Table D1). Although the movement of these households within affordable housing will have a nil effect in terms of housing need (i.e. they already live in affordable housing), the types of property they would ‘free up ‘ if they moved is considered in modelling and summarised in Table D8.

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Table D8 Households in need living in affordable dwelling stock No. Redcar and Stockton Designation Bedrooms Hartlepool Middlesbrough Cleveland on Tees TV4 General needs One 387 389 332 460 1569 Two 779 280 422 293 1775 Three 596 536 493 689 2314 Four 0 109 79 131 318 Five or more 65 0 0 0 65 Bedsit/studio 0 0 0 0 0 Older Person One 75 51 28 52 207 Two 178 42 87 118 425 Three 21 133 9 114 277 Four 0 4 0 0 4 Five or more 0 0 0 0 0 Bedsit/studio 0 0 0 0 0 TOTAL 2101 1546 1450 1856 6953 Source: 2011 Household Survey

Step 3.2 Surplus stock D.28 A proportion of vacant properties is needed to allow households to move within housing stock. Across the social rented sector, this proportion is generally recognised as being 2%. Stock above this proportion is usually assumed to be surplus stock. Across Tees Valley there are an estimated 4,965 empty dwellings but many of these are pending demolition. Therefore, modelling assumes no surplus social rented stock.

Step 3.3 Committed supply of new affordable units D.29 The Councils have provided data on affordable completions (back to 2007/8 for most local authorities) from which an average number of completions each year can be derived. Information on future supply has also been given. The modelling of affordable requirements considers the average number of affordable completions by district and sub-area as shown in Table D9.

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Table D9 Affordable housing development summary

Annual Planned Hartlepool 2007/8 2008/9 2009/10 2010/11 Average 2011+ Inner Suburbs n/a n/a 92 144 118 15 Outer Suburbs n/a n/a 12 37 24 0 Town Centre n/a n/a 22 0 11 0 Rural n/a n/a 0 0 0 0 District Total n/a n/a 126 181 153 15 Annual Planned Middlesbrough 2007/8 2008/9 2009/10 2010/11 Average 2011+ North 162 0 240 178 145 86 East 18 60 78 4 40 50 South 0 0 0 4 1 6 West 4 0 0 38 11 48 Greater Hemlington 0 0 0 0 0 0 District Total 184 60 318 224 197 190 Annual Planned Redcar and Cleveland 2007/8 2008/9 2009/10 2010/11 Average 2011+ Redcar 14 44 4 96 40 184 Greater Eston North 0 26 40 0 17 73 Greater Eston South 0 33 0 0 8 0 Guisborough 0 25 0 0 6 0 Skelton 0 0 6 0 2 13 Brotton 0 0 0 0 0 8 Saltburn 0 0 0 4 1 8 Loftus 0 0 14 0 4 80 District Total 14 128 64 100 78 366 Annual Planned Stockton 2007/8 2008/9 2009/10 2010/11 Average 2011+ Billingham 0 42 0 12 14 25 Inner Core 30 4 39 36 27 132 Ingleby Barwick 0 0 6 23 7 18 Rural 0 0 0 0 0 0 Stockton Outer Core 37 31 95 59 56 47 Thornaby 64 39 34 29 42 137 Yarm, Eaglescliffe and Preston 0 0 0 0 0 1 District Total 131 116 174 159 146 360 TV4 Total # # 682 664 574 931 Source: Local Authority Planning Departments

Step 3.4 Units to be taken out of management D.30 The model assumes there will be no social rented units taken out of management over the next five years.

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Step 3.5 Total affordable housing stock available D.31 It is assumed that there are 6,953 social (affordable) rented dwellings available over the 5 year period arising from households moving within the stock.

Steps 3.6 Annual supply of social re-lets D.32 The CLG model considers the annual supply of social re-lets. Address-level RSL CORE lettings data has been analysed for the three years 2008/9, 2009/10 and 2010/11. This information can be used to accurately assess the likely capacity of the social rented sector by location, size of property and designation (whether the property is general needs or older person). For the purposes of analysis, it is important to focus on the ability of households requiring affordable housing to access it. Therefore, the annual supply figures derived from CORE lettings data and used in modelling:  Exclude those moving into accommodation from outside the TV4 area and households moving within the social rented stock; and  Include households who moved from within the TV4 area into social renting from another tenure; newly-forming households originating in the TV4 area and moving in social renting; and households moving from specialist/supporting housing from within the TV4 area into affordable housing. D.33 Analysis suggests that there is an annual average of 2,413 social rented dwellings let to new tenants i.e. households originating in the TV4 area who either moved into social renting from another tenure, were newly-forming households, or who moved from supported/specialist accommodation. D.34 Modelling therefore assumes an annual capacity of 2,413 dwellings for new tenants across the TV4 area (Hartlepool 500, Middlesbrough 680, Redcar and Cleveland 695 and Stockton on Tees 538). Table D10 illustrates how the annual capacity figure is broken down by district, designation (general needs and older person) and property size.

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Table D10 Annual social rented re-lets

No. Middles Redcar and Stockton Designation Bedrooms Hartlepool brough Cleveland on Tees TV4 General needs 1 184 208 162 206 760 2 169 219 255 188 831 3 116 211 167 92 586 4 5 12 4 5 27 5 1 1 0 0 3 Older Person 1 9 9 42 29 88 2 10 10 47 13 81 3 4 9 18 4 35 4 1 1 0 0 2 5 0 0 0 0 0 TOTAL TV4 500 680 695 538 2413 Source: RSL CORE data

Steps 3.7 Annual supply of intermediate re-lets/sales D.35 Table D11 summarises the average supply of intermediate tenure dwellings which have either been sold or relet over the three year period 2008/9, 2009/10 and 2010/11 as recorded in CORE Sales data.

Table D11 Intermediate tenure sales/relets

No. Redcar and Stockton Designation Bedrooms Hartlepool Middlesbrough Cleveland on Tees TV4 General needs 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 2 8 2 13 3 1 2 5 1 9 4 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 Older Person 1 2 0 1 0 3 2 19 3 1 0 23 3 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 TOTAL 23 8 15 3 49 Source: RSL Core lettings data for 2008/9, 2009/10 and 2010/11

Summary of Stage 3 D.36 Overall, the model assumes an existing affordable supply of 6,953 and an annual supply of 2,413 social (affordable) lettings and an annual supply of 49 intermediate tenure lettings/sales. arc4 189 Tees Valley 2012 Strategic Housing Assessment Final Report

Stage 4: Estimate of annual housing need

Overview D.37 Analysis has carefully considered how housing need is arising within the TV4 area by identifying existing households in need (and who cannot afford market solutions), newly-forming households in need and existing households likely to fall into need. D.38 This has been reconciled with the supply of affordable dwellings which considers location, size and designation (i.e. for general needs or older person). Based on the CLG modelling process, analysis suggests that there is an overall annual net shortfall of 936 dwellings. If expected newbuild is also taken into account (which averages 574 across the TV4 area), the net impact is to reduced the overall annual net shortfall to 820. D.39 For critical stages of the needs assessment model (Step 1.1, Step 1.4, Step 2.4 and Step 3.8), information is broken down by sub-area, designation (general needs and older) and property size. This goes beyond the requirement of the SHMA guidance but allows a detailed assessment of the overall housing requirements of households in need and provides clear affordable requirement information. In turn, this can help identify where there are shortfalls and sufficient capacity of affordable housing, and help to shape policy responses. D.40 Stage 4 brings together the individual components of the needs assessment to establish the total net annual shortfall. D.41 Step 4.1 is the total backlog need which is derived from the number of households in Step 1.4 minus total affordable housing stock available (Step 3.5) D.42 Step 4.2 is a quota to reduce the total backlog need which is assumed to be 20% each year (which is a standard modelling assumption suggested by the CLG guidance)/ D.43 Step 4.3 is the annual backlog reduction based on step 4.2. D.44 Step 4.4 is a summary of newly-arising need from both newly forming households and existing households falling into need D.45 Step 4.5 is the total annual affordable need based on steps 4.3 and 4.5. D.46 Step 4.6 is the annual social rented capacity based on step 3.8.

Total net shortfall D.47 Table D12 summarises the overall annual net affordable housing requirements for the TV4 area by district, designation (general need and older person and property size. Table D13 summarises the overall annual net affordable housing requirements by sub-area, designation (general needs and older person) and arc4 190 Tees Valley 2012 Strategic Housing Assessment Final Report

property size. Overall, analysis suggests a shortfall in affordable housing across the TV4 area.

Table D12 Net affordable housing requirements – annual requirements 2012/13 to 2016/17

District General Older Smaller 1/2 Larger 3+ 1/2 bedroom bedroom bedrooom TOTAL Hartlepool 103 -43 29 88 Middlesbrough 218 -43 15 189 Redcar and Cleveland 192 -99 4 97 Stockton on Tees 466 48 46 561 TV4 979 -137 94 936

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Table D13 Net annual affordable housing requirements by sub-area, property size and designation 2012/13 to 2016/17 District Sub-area General Older Smaller 1/2 Larger 3+ 1/2 bedroom bedroom bedrooom TOTAL Hartlepool Inner Suburbs -172 -34 26 -180 Outer Suburbs 90 -4 -5 81 Rural 13 12 1 27 Town Centre 172 -18 6 160 Middlesbrough East -28 -30 2 -56 Greater Hemlington -14 -24 -1 -39 North 66 -24 -1 41 South 62 6 3 72 West 131 29 12 171 Redcar and Brotton 17 4 -1 21 Cleveland Greater Eston North -89 -96 -1 -186 Greater Eston South 18 -23 -3 -9 Guisborough 57 -3 4 57 Loftus 17 -1 1 18 Redcar 110 6 7 122 Saltburn 17 4 0 21 Skelton 45 11 -3 53 Stockton on Tees Billingham 102 4 12 118 Ingleby Barwick 71 8 2 81 Rural Areas 29 2 2 33 Stockton Inner Core -44 -9 12 -41 Stockton Outer Core 189 10 11 210 Thornaby 30 31 1 62 Yarm, Preston, Eaglescliffe 89 2 6 97 Total TV4 979 -137 94 936 Sources: 2011 Household Survey; RSL CORE Lettings and Sales NOTE sum rows/columns may appear not add up correctly due to rounding

Tenure and dwelling type profile of affordable dwellings D.48 Affordable housing includes social rented, affordable rented and intermediate tenure dwellings. New affordable development by Registered Providers will be affordable rented (with rents of up to 80% open market rent) and in order to recommend an appropriate split between social rented and intermediate tenure, the stated preferences of households and the relative affordability of intermediate tenure products is now reviewed.

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Household preferences D.49 Households were asked to state tenure preferences. Table D14 summarises the preferences of both existing households in need and newly forming households by tenure. Overall, this gives a tenure split of around 70% social/affordable rented and 30% intermediate tenure across the TV4 area.

Table D14 Affordable tenure preferences

Existing households Newly-forming Tenure in need households Total Affordable Rent 95.7 50.9 69.6 Intermediate Tenure 4.3 49.1 30.4 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 Base (annual requirement) 1166 1632 2798 Base: tenure preferences of 1,166 existing households in need and 1,632 newly-forming households each year (including households likely to fall into need) Source: 2011 Household Survey

D.50 There is clearly scope for an intermediate tenure market in the TV4 area. The final proportion of intermediate tenure dwellings to be delivered needs to be reconciled with the economic viability of delivering affordable housing on sites; the appetite of the HCA to fund intermediate tenure dwellings; and the ability of households to secure mortgages.

Dwelling type D.51 Table D15 considers the range of affordable property types households would consider, based on the aspirations of existing households in need and newly- forming households requiring affordable accommodation. Overall, analysis suggests that delivery of houses is a priority, with some requirement for flats and bungalows. D.52 Analysis of property type preferences (Table D15) suggest that delivery of houses is a priority (with 64.3% stating an expectation of moving to a house), followed by flats (25.8%) and bungalows (10%).

Table D15 Property type preferences

Type preferences Existing (%) Newly-forming (%) Total (%) Detached 10.6 8.3 9.3 Semi-detached 28.7 31.8 30.5 Terraced 18.9 28.4 24.5 Flat 21.5 28.8 25.8 Bungalow 20.2 2.7 10.0 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 Base (annual requirement) 1166 1632 2344 Source: 2011 Household Survey arc4 193 Tees Valley 2012 Strategic Housing Assessment Final Report

Implications for planning D.53 There is an ongoing need for affordable housing delivery within the TV4 area. This is recognised in the planned delivery of affordable housing across the area and the needs evidence suggests a need to diversify the range of affordable tenures available to households. D.54 Appendix H provides further information on how information presented in this research can be used to strengthen existing planning policies and ensure a continued supply of affordable housing in the future.

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Technical Appendix E: household groups who have particular housing requirements Underpins core output 8

Families

E.1 Families (that is couples and lone parents with children) account for around 26.5% of households across the TV4 area A further 13.3% were couples and lone parents with adult children (aged 18 or over) living with them. Analysis of market preferences (Table 4.18) suggests that:  Most couples with children and lone parent families preferred to move to a house, particularly detached and semi-detached). Couples with children were most likely to prefer properties with three or four bedrooms, with couples with three or more children most likely to expect a four bedroom property; most lone parents expect to move to a three bedroom property;  Couples and lone parents with adult children living at home had strong expectations of moving to houses (detached and particularly semi-detached houses) and bungalows; a range of property sizes were expected to be moved to, most notably three and four bedroom properties. E.2 In terms of housing need (Table 4.15), compared with the overall proportion of households in need of 7.8%: couples with three or more children were more likely to be in housing need (13.8%) along with 24.5% of lone parents with three or more children. Modelling of affordable housing requirements suggests that a range of affordable dwellings are required which will help to address the needs of families. It is important that particular care is taken to ensure that properties are built to reflect the demand from families and in the interests of long-term community sustainability.

Older people Overview E.3 A major strategic challenge for the Tees Valley Councils is to ensure a range of appropriate housing provision, adaptation and support for the Tees Valley’s growing older population. The number of people across the TV4 area aged 65 or over is projected to increase by 54.7% from 94,000 in 2010 to 144,000 by 2033.

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Table E1 Older people population projections

% change 2010 2033 2010-33 Total Population 563,300 601,700 6.8 Total Aged 65+ 94,000 144,000 53.2 Total Aged 75+ 44,000 75,000 70.5 Total Aged 85+ 12,000 27,000 125.0 As % of population 2010 2033 Total Aged 65+ 16.7 23.9 Total Aged 75+ 7.8 12.5 Total Aged 85+ 2.1 4.5 Source: ONS 2008-based population projections

E.4 The majority of older people (78.4%) want to stay in their own homes with help and support when needed and the vast majority are owner occupiers. Particularly noted is the need for help with gardening (38.1%), repair/maintenance (36.5% stated this help is needed either now or in the next five years) and help with cleaning (27.3%). E.5 In terms of adaptations, most frequently mentioned were the need for bathroom adaptations (by 15.6% of older person households), better heating (12%) and the need for internal handrails (9.8%). Resources for aids and adaptations remain tight, particularly for households in the private sector. Alternative sources of funding, such as equity loans, should be considered to finance remedial measures required by older person households.

Support requirements and property adaptations E.6 The 2011 Household Survey provided evidence of the need for particular adaptations across all households. Particularly noted are better heating, more insulation and double glazing, which are mentioned by around 15% of households (Table E2). Overall, 7.8% of all properties across the TV4 area had been adapted or purpose built for a person with a long-term illness, health problem or disability. A further 8.1% of households across the TV4 area said they required care or support to enable them to stay in their current home. 61.5% of households stated that there was sufficient space for a carer to stay overnight if this was needed – across the affordable (social) rented sector this fell to 41.5%.

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Table E2 Adaptations required either now or in next 5 years Redcar & Stockton-on- Adaptations Required Hartlepool Middlesbrough Total Cleveland Tees Number % Number % Number % Number % Number % Better heating 6,180 15.5 9,045 16 8,936 15.0 12,394 15.7 36,556 15.5 More Insulation 5,241 13.1 8,159 14 8,204 13.8 12,252 15.5 33,856 14.4 Double glazing 5,805 14.5 6,171 11 7,258 12.2 12,085 15.3 31,319 13.3 To kitchen 2,298 5.8 3,094 5 2,605 4.4 3,958 5.0 11,955 5.1 To bathrooms 3,674 9.2 5,890 10 4,478 7.5 6,952 8.8 20,995 8.9 Internal handrails 1,967 4.9 3,444 6 3,333 5.6 3,993 5.0 12,737 5.4 External handrails 1,208 3.0 2,076 4 2,482 4.2 3,235 4.1 9,001 3.8 Downstairs WC 2,356 5.9 3,264 6 2,209 3.7 3,745 4.7 11,574 4.9 Stairlift 1,673 4.2 2,912 5 2,389 4.0 3,244 4.1 10,219 4.3 Improved access 869 2.2 1,791 3 1,618 2.7 2,109 2.7 6,388 2.7 Wheelchair access 870 2.2 1,472 3 1,304 2.2 1,878 2.4 5,524 2.3 Lever door handles 725 1.8 1,355 2 858 1.4 1,482 1.9 4,421 1.9 Room for a carer 703 1.8 1,386 2 957 1.6 1,959 2.5 5,004 2.1 Community alarm 1,665 4.2 2,216 4 1,390 2.3 2,297 2.9 7,568 3.2 Security alarm 3,176 8.0 5,495 10 3,757 6.3 5,847 7.4 18,275 7.8 Increase size of property 2,693 6.7 5,085 9 4,402 7.4 6,819 8.6 19,000 8.1 Base (Total Households) 39,932 100.0 56,934 100 59,534 100.0 79,087 100.0 235,487 100.0 Source: 2011 Household Survey

E.7 The household survey also provides information on the need for other forms of assistance, highlighting the particular need for help with repair and maintenance of the home (Table 4.28) across all households. This provides valuable evidence of the need for a service to support people through the process of installing adaptations and the removal of Housing Health and Safety Rating System Category 1 hazards in private dwellings.

Table E3 Type of assistance required either now or in next 5 years

Support required Hartlepool Middlesbrough Redcar & Cleveland Stockton-on-Tees Total

Number % Numbe % Number % Number % Number % Help with repair and r 9,680 24.2 17,096 30.0 13,962 23.5 18,110 22.9 58,848 25.0 maintenance of home Help with gardening 6,519 16.3 11,150 19.6 10,014 16.8 12,512 15.8 40,194 17.1 Help with cleaning home 5,631 14.1 8,216 14.4 7,095 11.9 8,265 10.5 29,208 12.4 Help with other practical taks 4,858 12.2 7,608 13.4 6,495 10.9 7,172 9.1 26,133 11.1 Help with personal care 4,300 10.8 5,223 9.2 5,390 9.1 5,188 6.6 20,101 8.5 Want company / friendship 2,416 6.1 4,212 7.4 3,768 6.3 4,822 6.1 15,218 6.5 Base (Total Households) 39,932 100.0 56,934 100.0 59,534 100.0 79,087 100.0 235,487 100.0 Source: 2011 Household Survey

Older person household aspirations E.8 The aspirations and preferences of older people need to be carefully considered in developing appropriate policy responses. A range of options and solutions to arc4 197 Tees Valley 2012 Strategic Housing Assessment Final Report

address the needs of older people are available in addition to traditional sheltered accommodation, for instance apartments specifically marketed at older people and Extra Care housing. The following definitions have been used to describe different types of older persons’ housing:  Sheltered accommodation is usually a group of bungalows or flats and you have your own front door. Schemes usually have a manager/warden to arrange services and linked to a careline/alarm service;  Extra Care Housing is designed with the needs of frailer older people in mind. It includes flats, bungalows and retirement villages. You have your own front door. Domestic support and personal care are available;  Residential Care Homes provide a bedroom and the use of a shared lounge with other residents. Personal care is provided – bathing, help dressing, meals etc.;  Co-housing is a home in a small community which shares facilities (e.g. laundry) and activities. E.9 Table E4 shows the housing options that are being considered by older people in the Region in the next five years. The vast majority of older people (62.2%) want to continue to live in their current home with support when needed. A further 27.7% are considering renting from a Council/Housing Association, 20.5% renting sheltered accommodation, 17.5% buying on the open market and 15.4% renting extra care housing and 8.8% would consider co-housing. E.10 It is also important to note that most older people who own a property will have equity in their current home. This should give them access to buy an alternative property on the open market appropriate to their requirements (with the potential to free up properties for other types of household). This evidence suggests a need to continue to diversify the range of older persons’ housing provision. Additionally, providing a wider range of older persons’ accommodation has the potential to free-up larger family accommodation.

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Table E4 Housing options that older people in Tees Valley may consider over the next five years.

Housing Option No. of responses % of households* Continue to live in current home with support when needed 66507 62.2 Buying a property on the open market 18723 17.5 Rent a property from a private landlord 7640 7.1 Rent from Council / Housing Association 29611 27.7 Rent Sheltered accommodation 21910 20.5 Buy Sheltered accommodation 10371 9.7 Part rent & buy Sheltered accommodation 5758 5.4 Rent Extra Care Housing 16500 15.4 Buy Extra Care Housing 6586 6.2 Part rent & buy Extra Care Housing 3427 3.2 Residential care home 3647 3.4 Co-housing 9405 8.8 Base (no. of valid respondents) 107,000 *Percentages don't add up to 100 as respondents could select more than one option Source: 2011 Household Survey

General property adaptations required E.11 The 2011 Household Survey provided evidence of the need for particular adaptations across all households. Particularly noted are better heating, more insulation and double glazing, which are mentioned by around 15% of households (Table E5). Overall, 7.8% of all properties across the TV4 area had been adapted or purpose built for a person with a long-term illness, health problem or disability. A further 8.1% of households across the TV4 area said they required care or support to enable them to stay in their current home. 61.5% of households stated that there was sufficient space for a carer to stay overnight if this was needed – across the affordable (social) rented sector this fell to 41.5%.

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Table E5 Property adaptations required either now or over the next 5 years Redcar & Stockton-on- Adaptations Required Hartlepool Middlesbrough Total Cleveland Tees Number % Number % Number % Number % Number % Better heating 6,180 15.5 9,045 16 8,936 15.0 12,394 15.7 36,556 15.5 More Insulation 5,241 13.1 8,159 14 8,204 13.8 12,252 15.5 33,856 14.4 Double glazing 5,805 14.5 6,171 11 7,258 12.2 12,085 15.3 31,319 13.3 To kitchen 2,298 5.8 3,094 5 2,605 4.4 3,958 5.0 11,955 5.1 To bathrooms 3,674 9.2 5,890 10 4,478 7.5 6,952 8.8 20,995 8.9 Internal handrails 1,967 4.9 3,444 6 3,333 5.6 3,993 5.0 12,737 5.4 External handrails 1,208 3.0 2,076 4 2,482 4.2 3,235 4.1 9,001 3.8 Downstairs WC 2,356 5.9 3,264 6 2,209 3.7 3,745 4.7 11,574 4.9 Stairlift 1,673 4.2 2,912 5 2,389 4.0 3,244 4.1 10,219 4.3 Improved access 869 2.2 1,791 3 1,618 2.7 2,109 2.7 6,388 2.7 Wheelchair access 870 2.2 1,472 3 1,304 2.2 1,878 2.4 5,524 2.3 Lever door handles 725 1.8 1,355 2 858 1.4 1,482 1.9 4,421 1.9 Room for a carer 703 1.8 1,386 2 957 1.6 1,959 2.5 5,004 2.1 Community alarm 1,665 4.2 2,216 4 1,390 2.3 2,297 2.9 7,568 3.2 Security alarm 3,176 8.0 5,495 10 3,757 6.3 5,847 7.4 18,275 7.8 Increase size of property 2,693 6.7 5,085 9 4,402 7.4 6,819 8.6 19,000 8.1 Base (Total Households) 39,932 100.0 56,934 100 59,534 100.0 79,087 100.0 235,487 100.0 Note: household could tick more than one option Source: 2011 Household Survey

E.12 The household survey clearly evidences a need for physical adaptations to properties, as summarised in Table E5. However, demand far exceeds likely resources and therefore most adaptations are likely to be funded by householders themselves or through, for instance, equity loan arrangements.

General support requirements E.13 The household survey also provides information on the need for other forms of assistance, highlighting the particular need for help with repair and maintenance of the home (Table E7) across all households. This provides valuable evidence of the need for a service to support people through the process of installing adaptations and the removal of Housing Health and Safety Rating System Category 1 hazards in private dwellings.

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Table E7 Type of assistance required either now or in next 5 years

Support required Hartlepool Middlesbrough Redcar & Cleveland Stockton-on-Tees Total

Number % Numbe % Number % Number % Number % Help with repair and r 9,680 24.2 17,096 30.0 13,962 23.5 18,110 22.9 58,848 25.0 maintenance of home Help with gardening 6,519 16.3 11,150 19.6 10,014 16.8 12,512 15.8 40,194 17.1 Help with cleaning home 5,631 14.1 8,216 14.4 7,095 11.9 8,265 10.5 29,208 12.4 Help with other practical taks 4,858 12.2 7,608 13.4 6,495 10.9 7,172 9.1 26,133 11.1 Help with personal care 4,300 10.8 5,223 9.2 5,390 9.1 5,188 6.6 20,101 8.5 Want company / friendship 2,416 6.1 4,212 7.4 3,768 6.3 4,822 6.1 15,218 6.5 Base (Total Households) 39,932 100.0 56,934 100.0 59,534 100.0 79,087 100.0 235,487 100.0 Source: 2011 Household Survey

Specialist support requirements E.14 The Supporting People team have a particular responsibility to ensure that there is adequate accommodation and support provision for a range of specialist client requirements e.g. domestic violence, HIV/Aids, Offending/Ex-Offending and Teenage Pregnancy. E.15 Table E8 summarises the type of client groups accommodated in social rented housing across the TV4 area by Local Authority District over the three year period 2008/9 to 2009/10 and 2010/1. Data indicates that a range of groups are accommodated in RSL specialist provision, most notably older people with support needs, single homeless people with support needs, people with mental health problems and women at risk of domestic violence.

Table E8 Client groups accommodated in social rented sector in TV4 districts 2006/7 to 2009/10 Client group District Redcar & Stockton- Hartlepool Middlesbrough Cleveland on-Tees Total People with physical or sensory disabilities 2 25 0 24 51 People with learning disabilities 9 33 13 26 81 People with mental health problems 7 470 0 16 493 People with drug problems 0 184 0 11 195 Offenders and people at risk of offending 33 73 0 0 106 Women at risk of domestic violence 99 135 156 67 457 Older people with support needs 879 843 266 409 2397 Single homeless people with support needs 107 306 88 5 506 Homeless families with support needs 0 60 15 3 78 Young people leaving care 21 9 0 48 78 Young people at risk 58 30 0 18 106 Teenage parents 29 2 0 0 31 Total 1244 2170 538 627 4579 Source: Supported CORE lettings data

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Homelessness issues Homeless acceptances E.16 Homelessness statistics for 2010/1128 indicate that a total of 451 decisions were made on households declaring themselves as homeless across the TV4 area (Table E9). Of these households, 185 were classified as homeless and in priority need. Over the three years 2008/9, 2009/10 and 2010/11, an average of 499 decisions have been made across the TV4 area and 284 households have been declared as homeless and in priority need.

Figure E9 Homeless acceptances (in priority need) and nos. in temporary accommodation in TV4 Districts 2008/9 to 2010/11

District 2008/09 2009-10 2001/11 Three year total Three year Average Accepted Accepted Accepted Accepted Accepted Decisions as Decisions as Decisions as Decisions as Decisions as made homeless made homeless made homeless made homeless made homeless Hartlepool 46 28 31 18 29 15 106 61 35 20 Middlesbrough 82 30 29 8 163 79 274 117 91 39 Redcar & Cleveland 77 55 65 21 35 11 177 87 59 29 Stockton-on-Tees 541 416 209 105 189 66 939 587 313 196 TV4 Total 746 529 334 152 416 171 1496 852 499 284 Source: CLG HIP/HSSA and P(1)e data

Households previously homeless E.17 The household survey identified 2,270 households who had been previously homeless or living in temporary accommodation and had moved to their present accommodation in the past 5 years. E.18 Table E10 presents a range of information relating to the characteristics of previously homeless households and the dwelling choices that they have made. 88.7% of households previously homeless have moved into social or private rented accommodation. They have moved in to a range of property sizes, most notably one/bedsit (44.2%) and two bedroom (31.6%).. The incomes of previously homeless households are generally low with 83.4% receiving less than £300 each week. 44% are single person households and a further 22.5% are lone parent families.

28 CLG Homeless Statistics Table 627: Local Authorities' action under the homelessness provisions of the 1985 and 1996 Housing Acts, by district arc4 202 Tees Valley 2012 Strategic Housing Assessment Final Report

Table E10 Characteristics of households previously homeless Household type % Property Type % Single adult under 60 44.0 House 53.7 Single adult 60 or over 9.2 Flat 37.4 Couple only (both under 60) 3.8 Bungalow 8.8 Couple only (one or both over 60) 1.6 Other 0.1 Couple with children 6.9 Lone parent 22.5 Other type of household 12.0 Total 100.0 Total 100.0 Current tenure % Origin % Owner occupied 7.6 Within TV4 81.7 Private rented 33.9 From outside TV4 18.3 Affordable rent 54.8 Total 100 Intermediate 3.6 Total 100 Current Income (gross weekly) % Property size % Under £300 83.4 0/1 Bed 44.2 £300 to <£500 8.1 2 Bed 31.6 £500+ 8.5 3 or more Beds 24.2 Total 100 Total 100 Base: 2270 Source: 2011 Household Survey

Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic issues

E.19 The 2011 household survey indicates that 96.7% of Household Reference People describe themselves as ‘White British’ and 3.3% describe themselves as having other ethnicities. Asian/Asian British account for 1.4%, ‘Other White’ groups 1.2% and other ethnicities 0.8%. Table E11 summarises the proportions of households with a household reference person from White British and BAME groups by District.

Table E11 Ethnicity of household reference person by district Ethnicity District (%) White Other British Ethnicities Total Base Hartlepool 98.4 1.6 100.0 39932 Middlesbrough 93.4 6.6 100.0 56934 Redcar and Cleveland 98.4 1.6 100.0 59534 Stockton-on-Tees 96.9 3.1 100.0 79087 Total 96.7 3.3 100.0 235487 Source: 2011 household survey arc4 203 Tees Valley 2012 Strategic Housing Assessment Final Report

E.20 The needs of Gypsies and Travellers have been assessed in a Tees Valley-wide study carried out by Salford University in 2009. This suggested additional pitch need arising from existing district-level Gypsy and Travelling Showpeople populations of 47 across the TV4 area over the period 2007-2026:  Hartlepool - 6  Middlesbrough - 11  Redcar and Cleveland - 4  Stockton-on-Tees - 34 E.21 The report recommends that the authorities across the area engage proactively to meet the accommodation needs identified.

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Technical Appendix F: Monitoring and updating

A framework for updating the housing needs model and assessment of affordable housing requirements

Introduction

F.1 Having invested considerable resources in obtaining an excellent range of primary and secondary data, it is vital that this information be used to the maximum effect and updated on a regular basis. The purpose of this appendix is to establish a framework for updating the housing needs model and affordable housing requirements. In addition, it recommends the regular monitoring and review of housing market activity and regular reflections on the wider strategic context.

Updating of baseline housing needs and affordable housing requirements

F.2 A baseline assessment of housing need across the TV4 area has been derived from the household survey. This information should be taken as a baseline from which annual reviews of key aspects of the model proceed. It is recommended that the baseline information has a shelf-life of three to five years (with a recommended refresh of household information after 2015/16 through primary surveying). F.3 Key elements of the needs assessment model can be readily updated on an annual basis to reflect: - changes in house prices and rental costs; - capacity of the social rented sector; - availability of intermediate tenure housing.

Changes in house prices and rental costs F.4 It is recommended that the annual purchase of address-level house prices to complement the existing dataset continues. This will result in an annual refresh of house price data by sub-area and provide an indication of changing lower quartile prices. In turn, these can be applied to Step 1.4 of the needs assessment model which considers the extent to which households in need can afford open market prices. As part of this analysis, updated information on private rented sector rents needs to be secured. Several websites can provide a snapshot of private rents and help inform this element of the update.

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F.5 Lower quartile prices and private sector rents should also be compared with the income profile of newly-forming households at Step 2.2 of the needs assessment model.

Capacity of the social rented sector F.6 The capacity of the social rented sector needs to be reviewed annually using RSL CORE lettings data (Step 3.6). F.7 A dataset has been prepared for RSL CORE data for 2008/9, 2009/10 and 2010/11 as part of this research. This includes some additional variables identifying the characteristics of households (by designation i.e. under 60 or over 60) and previous housing circumstances (from out of area, previously social renter, previously other tenure and from supported/specialist accommodation). The capacity of the social rented sector is based on the number of lettings to households from within a Local Authority District who were previously living in (non social rented or intermediate) tenure.

Availability of intermediate tenure housing F.8 CORE Sales data can identify the availability of intermediate tenure housing (Step 3.7). Data has been assembled for 2007/8, 2008/9 and 2009/10.

Annual adjustments to affordable requirements F.9 Datasets can be provided from which annual reviews of affordable requirements can proceed. This will point to any adjustment in net requirements by sub-area, designation and property size.

Updating of contextual information F.10 This report has presented a range of contextual information relating to the economy, demography (including population projections and migration) and dwelling stock. This information should be updated where possible and in particular progression with economic growth and diversification should be carefully monitored.

Reflections on the general strategic context and emerging issues F.11 As part of its strategic housing function, all LAs need to understand the general strategic housing market context and respond to emerging issues. Given the dynamic nature of housing markets, the Central and Local Government policy agenda and bidding for resources, any update of housing needs must be positioned within a wider strategic context. F.12 Ongoing stakeholder consultation and engagement with local communities is also vital to maintain up-to-date intelligence on housing market issues.

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Concluding comments

F.13 It is vital that mechanisms are in place to derive robust, credible and defensible estimates of housing need and affordable requirements across the TV4 area. We believe that this study provides a robust evidence base which has the capacity to be updated. F.14 Having established a baseline position on affordable housing and advice on open market provision to reflect aspirations, it is essential that housing market activity is regularly monitored. This is highly relevant given current housing market uncertainty. A range of methods have been suggested to ensure that housing need and affordability modelling is revised on an annual basis. Annual reviews should also take into account the changing strategic context and impact on housing market activity.

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Technical Appendix G: Statement of conformity to SHMA guidance

G.1 In order for a Strategic Housing Market Assessment to be deemed robust and credible, it needs to provide, as a minimum, all of the core outputs and meets the requirements of all of the process criteria (these were presented in Tables 1.1 and 1.2 of this report). G.2 This Statement of Conformity confirms that in delivering the eight core SHMA outputs, the process criteria outlined in the SHMA guidance has been adhered to. Further details are now provided.

Approach to identifying housing market area(s) is consistent with other approaches to identifying housing market areas within the region G.3 In considering housing market areas, the starting point of the SHMA was the existing SHMA evidence base. The 2012 SHMA has used migration, travel to work and house price analysis (in accordance with CLG advice note on defining market areas). The approach to define market areas has therefore been consistent with other approaches to identifying markets and follows national best practice.

Housing market conditions are assessed within the context of the housing market area G.4 Although specific focus of this research has been the TV4 area, research has considered inter-relationships with other areas, notably with County Durham and North Yorkshire. This has been achieved through a review of migration, travel-to- work, house prices and household aspirations.

Involves key stakeholders, including house builders G.5 The research has been overseen by a steering group comprising Local Authority housing and planning officers. During the course of the research, stakeholder interviews have been carried out with a wide-range of interest groups including estate agents, supporting people representatives, house builders and private lettings agents. The research has therefore ensured that the views of a range of key stakeholders are represented in the study.

Contains a full technical justification of the methods employed, with any limitations noted G.6 The research has been multi-method and involved secondary data analysis, a major household survey and stakeholder consultation. The study methodology was summarised in Chapter 1. The range of data assembled is in accordance with the SHMA guidance. In order to understand housing market dynamics more fully, the research has placed a particular emphasis on primary fieldwork to enhance and supplement the review of secondary data sources. Within the text arc4 208 Tees Valley 2012 Strategic Housing Assessment Final Report

of the report, any particular observations relating to data including limitations and interpretation have been presented.

Assumptions, judgements and findings are fully justified and presented in an open and transparent manner. G.7 Given our expertise and understanding of housing research, the strategic housing agenda and affordability issues, we believe that any assumptions, judgements and findings are fully justified and have been presented in an open and transparent manner. In particular, we have ensured that robust data has been presented and interpreted based on our understanding of general market drivers and the wider sub-regional, regional and national strategic context.

Uses and reports upon effective quality control mechanisms G.8 Throughout the research process, we have ensured that the most up-to-date and robust data sources have been used. Most notably, data from 8,704 households was secured through primary fieldwork. This data was appropriately weighted (to address response bias) and grossed (to reflect total households). We have a series of internal quality control mechanisms relating to data analysis and interpretation; project management; and client liaison. By having these quality control mechanisms in place, we trust that this is evidenced in the quality of research and output we produce.

Explains how the assessment findings can been monitored and updated since it was originally undertaken. G.9 A series of recommendations for updating the study have been presented at Appendix F.

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Technical Appendix H: Affordable housing policy considerations

Introduction H.1 This research provides the local authorities with comprehensive information in respect of current and projected future affordable housing needs and requirements within their respective areas. This information will enable the Councils to review their current affordable housing policies and practices to ensure that all opportunities to address identified shortfalls are explored - evidence from this study will help the Councils when making decisions about their housing numbers and how best to tackle their respective affordable housing shortfalls. H.2 When reviewing affordable housing policies and planning guidance other key local and sub regional strategic priorities will need to be considered, as will the evolving national strategic housing and planning context, including:  Implications of the Localism Act;  Pending publication of the National Planning Framework;  Impact of the affordable rent model; and  Government priorities set out within the National Housing Strategy. H.3 Combine with these factors the current economic climate, and it is clear that the context for affordable housing delivery in the TV4 area is both challenging and evolving. H.4 In these circumstances robust and up to date evidence of the need for affordable housing, which can be used to support appropriate planning policy responses, is particularly important. Given the availability of this up to date evidence, there is merit in the Councils reviewing their existing mechanisms and considering new options and approaches to affordable housing delivery in the future, this includes exploring the potential for increased flexibility within planning policy approaches. H.5 Any review of affordable housing policy will also need to be mindful of issues of economic viability, an assessment of which does not form part of this research.

Local Planning Policy Context H.6 There is a comprehensive summary of the policy context set out in Section Two of this report, and the affordable housing requirements need to be reviewed within this context. The current policies for each District are now summarised.

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Hartlepool H.7 HSG5: Affordable Housing Provision Affordable housing is required on all applications or proposals for residential dwelling that consist of a gross additional of 15 dwellings or more. An affordable housing target of 10% will be required on all sites. The affordable provision and tenure and mix will be negotiated on a site by site basis

Middlesbrough H.8 CS11: Affordable Housing The Council will work with partner organisations to ensure there is an adequate supply of good quality affordable housing distributed throughout the town. This will be achieved by having regard to an up to date housing assessment. Policy REG18 and the Affordable Housing SPD set requirements for 10-15% of dwellings to be affordable.

Redcar and Cleveland H.9 Policy CS15 Delivering Mixed and Balanced Communities and Quality Homes Housing proposals of 10 dwellings or more will be required to provide an appropriate mix of housing on the site. The final mix will be negotiated with the development based on the housing needs and aspirations identified in the up-to- date local housing assessment. Where a specific need is identified, the housing requirement on allocated sites will be set out in a Communities DPD and/or in site development briefs Housing sites of less than 10 dwellings could meet a specific housing requirement if a particular need is identified.

Stockton on Tees H.10 CS8 Housing Mix and Affordable Provision 4. The average annual target for the delivery of affordable housing is 100 affordable housing per year to 2016, 90 affordable homes per year for the period 2016-2021 and 80 affordable homes per year for the period 2021 to 2024. These targets are minimums, not ceilings. 5. Affordable housing within a target range of 15-20% will be required on schemes of 15 dwellings or more and on development sites of 0.5 hectares or more.

H.11 The 2012 SHMA demonstrates an ongoing requirement for affordable housing across the Tees Valley and the existing policies for each authority remain appropriate. Of particular note, sub-area analysis suggests some distinct pockets of affordable housing need which should be addressed as a priority, although evidence suggests that overall in Hartlepool there is no overall net requirement. arc4 211 Tees Valley 2012 Strategic Housing Assessment Final Report

Planning Policy Considerations H.12 The Councils already have in place flexible approaches to affordable housing planning requirements set out within their respective Core Strategy policies: which are in general conformity with the evidence established in this SHMA. H.13 There are areas that the Councils may wish to consider further, these include reviewing:  Targets and tenure;  Type of housing; and  Use of funding.

Targets and tenure H.14 Evidence from this research indicates that there remains a sustained and unmet need for affordable housing both for social rent and for intermediate tenure. Survey evidence suggests a tenure split of around 70% social (affordable) rent and 30% intermediate tenure would reflect household aspirations. However, any site by site assessment would require an economic viability assessment to establish an appropriate tenure split for a particular development.

Type H.15 In terms of property type, the affordable housing requirements identified indicate a range of needs. It is important to review these requirements against potential development capacity across the Districts, before deciding whether to seek a pro-rata match of private housing on all new developments, or stipulate specific property size requirements on a site by site basis. H.16 Whichever approach is adopted, it will need to be viable on individual sites, with some developments providing greater opportunities to deliver certain types of homes than others. Given the identified property preferences (house 64.3%, flat 25.8% and bungalow 10%), the Councils could consider adopting a plan, monitor, manage approach to the type of affordable housing delivered, setting targets for individual property types within specific areas.

Use of HCA funding H.17 This policy advice is based on an assumption that affordable housing will need to be delivered without grant or other public subsidy. Indeed, the 2010 Comprehensive Spending Review saw a drastic cut in the housing capital budget (in excess of 60%), and the advent of the affordable rent model. It is not yet clear what the impact of the affordable rent model will be within Tees Valley. H.18 Resources under the Affordable Homes Programme have now been allocated by the HCA, and Registered Providers have identified the sites and schemes on which they anticipate investing these resources, it is not clear to what extent these resources will be available to subsidise social rented housing planning obligations in the future. arc4 212 Tees Valley 2012 Strategic Housing Assessment Final Report

Policy Recommendations H.19 This research has identified shortfalls in affordable housing within the TV4 area , which need to be addressed if the Councils are to deliver balanced and sustainable communities over the long-term. This research can further help enhance the Councils’ affordable housing planning policy approaches through provision of up-to-date information on housing need and demand, affordability, and property type and tenure requirements. H.20 It is recommended that the Councils consider and further explore:  Applying affordable housing requirements with flexibility whilst the market is in recession subject to the provision of robust viability evidence from developers when flexibility is sought;  Working with developers to explore innovative ways to deliver affordable housing in their areas;  Discuss with the HCA and Registered Provider partners options to maximise and facilitate affordable housing delivery in current market conditions, including investment opportunities and the future use of funding;  Monitoring, reviewing and responding to the changing national policy agenda to be implemented through the National Planning Framework; and  Continued monitoring of affordable housing delivery (effective monitoring of delivery is increasingly important when applying policy flexibly)

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