Tees Valley 2012 Strategic Housing Market Assessment Final Report for Tees Valley Unlimited Main Contact: Michael Bullock arc4 Ltd T: 0191 386 0026 F: 07092 158 162 Email: [email protected] Website: www.arc4.co.uk Publishing Date: 21st May 2012 arc4 2 Tees Valley 2012 Strategic Housing Market Assessment Final Report TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary ..................................................................................................... 6 1. Introduction...................................................................................................... 11 Background and objectives.......................................................................................... 11 Definitions.................................................................................................................... 11 SHMA Guidance.......................................................................................................... 12 NPPF requirements ..................................................................................................... 14 Geography................................................................................................................... 14 Research methodology................................................................................................ 14 Presentation of data..................................................................................................... 15 Report structure........................................................................................................... 17 2. Policy and strategic review............................................................................. 18 Introduction.................................................................................................................. 18 National policy ............................................................................................................. 18 Regional and Sub Regional Strategic Context ............................................................. 27 Concluding comments ................................................................................................. 28 3. Tees Valley Housing Market Context............................................................. 29 Introduction.................................................................................................................. 29 House prices and trends.............................................................................................. 29 Source: Land Registry ................................................................................................. 33 Relative affordability .................................................................................................... 33 Household migration and search behaviour................................................................. 35 Characteristics of moving households ......................................................................... 35 Households planning to move...................................................................................... 42 Travel to work trends ................................................................................................... 44 Concluding comments ................................................................................................. 45 4. Strategic Housing Market Assessment Core Outputs.................................. 46 Introduction.................................................................................................................. 46 Core Output 1: Estimates of current dwellings in terms of size, type, condition, tenure 46 Core Output 2: Past and current housing market trends; balance between supply and demand; key drivers .................................................................................................... 54 Core Output 3: Future households ........................................................................... 71 Core Output 4: Current households in need ............................................................. 74 Core Output 5: Future households requiring affordable housing............................... 77 Core Output 6: Future households requiring market housing ................................... 78 Core Output 7: Size of affordable housing required.................................................. 83 The new delivery model for affordable housing............................................................ 89 Core Output 8: Estimates of household groups who have particular housing requirements 90 5. Review of general market demand................................................................. 97 arc4 3 Tees Valley 2012 Strategic Housing Market Assessment Final Report Overall dwelling requirements...................................................................................... 97 Market housing: key issues.......................................................................................... 98 6. Conclusion: policy and strategic issues ..................................................... 104 The current housing market....................................................................................... 104 Housing markets and mobility.................................................................................... 105 Future housing market............................................................................................... 105 Housing need and demand........................................................................................ 106 Final comments ......................................................................................................... 108 Introduction to Technical Appendices ................................................................... 109 Technical Appendix A: Research Methodology .................................................... 110 Overall approach ....................................................................................................... 110 Baseline dwelling stock information and survey sample errors .................................. 110 List of stakeholders interviewed as part of the SHMA process................................... 113 Technical Appendix B: The Current Housing Market............................................ 114 Summary of contents................................................................................................. 114 Introduction................................................................................................................ 114 Stage 1: Demographic and economic context............................................................ 115 Stage 2: The housing stock ....................................................................................... 128 Stage 3: The active market........................................................................................ 139 Stage 4: Bringing the evidence together .................................................................... 153 Technical Appendix C: The Future Housing Market ............................................. 163 Technical Appendix D: Housing need calculations .............................................. 176 Introduction................................................................................................................ 176 Stage 1: Current need .............................................................................................. 178 Stage 3: Affordable housing supply .......................................................................... 185 Stage 4: Estimate of annual housing need................................................................ 190 Tenure and dwelling type profile of affordable dwellings............................................ 192 Technical Appendix E: household groups who have particular housing requirements ............................................................................................................ 195 Families..................................................................................................................... 195 Older people.............................................................................................................. 195 Homelessness issues................................................................................................ 202 Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic issues..................................................................... 203 Technical Appendix F: Monitoring and updating .................................................. 205 A framework for updating the housing needs model and assessment of affordable housing requirements ................................................................................................ 205 Updating of contextual information............................................................................. 206 Reflections on the general strategic context and emerging issues............................. 206 Concluding comments ............................................................................................... 207 Technical Appendix G: Statement of conformity to SHMA guidance.................. 208 arc4 4 Tees Valley 2012 Strategic Housing Market Assessment Final Report Technical Appendix H: Affordable housing policy considerations ..................... 210 Introduction................................................................................................................ 210 Local Planning Policy Context ..................................................................................