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Essel Propack (ESSPAC) |185 Target : | 198 Target Period : 12 Months Lower Realisation Hits Revenue Growth… Potential Upside : 7%

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Essel Propack (ESSPAC) |185 Target : | 198 Target Period : 12 Months Lower Realisation Hits Revenue Growth… Potential Upside : 7% Result Update May 2, 2016 Rating matrix Rating : Hold Essel Propack (ESSPAC) |185 Target : | 198 Target Period : 12 months Lower realisation hits revenue growth… Potential Upside : 7% • Essel Propack’s sales growth remained under pressure in Q4FY16, as What’s Changed? Amesa revenues continued to decline due to divestment of its Target Changed from | 165 to | 198 flexible business. EAP and America regions revenue were largely hit EPS FY17E Changed from | 13.9 to | 13.6 by lower realisation and currency devaluation. However, capacity EPS FY18E Changed from | 15.1 to | 15.8 addition coupled with good traction of non oral care products have Rating Changed from Buy to Hold helped the Europe region to grow ~8% YoY • Benefit of lower raw material prices was partially offset by higher Quarterly Performance other expenses and employee expenses. As result, the EBITDA Q4FY16 Q4FY15 YoY (%) Q3FY16 QoQ (%) margin improved only 100 bps YoY. However, for FY16, margins Revenue 561.4 611.7 -8.2 513.4 9.3 recorded sharp growth of 230 bps YoY due to higher gross margin EBITDA 103.1 106.2 -2.9 102.8 0.3 and hiving off of the lower margin business. Additionally, improved EBITDA (%) 18.4 17.4 101bps 20.0 -165bps utilisation in the European region further added to EBITDA margins PAT 41.5 45.4 -8.7 42.9 -3.5 • Despite a margin improvement and reduction in interest outgo by 21% YoY (due to debt reduction), PAT recorded a decline of ~9% Key Financials YoY mainly due to exceptional loss of | 11 crore | Crore FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E Net Sales 2,323 2,185 2,430 2,727 Revival in European region - key trigger for future growth EBITDA 396.2 423.9 459.3 515.4 The European region contributes ~18% to the consolidated topline (lower Net Profit 140.6 182.1 213.4 247.7 than other regions) largely due to ongoing expansion in that region. EPS (|) 9.0 11.6 13.6 15.8 However, EBIT losses in Europe reduced substantially from | 93 crore in CY08 to profit of ~| 23 crore in FY16, due to implementation of different Valuation summary cost effective programmes, stabilisation of the Poland unit and addition of FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E new clients in various geographies. The Polish unit is a hub for extruded P/E 20.7 16.0 13.6 11.7 plastic tubes. It is also expanding into a major supplier of laminated tubes. Target P/E 28.8 22.1 17.1 14.6 The Polish unit turned positive from Q1FY15 onwards with an EV / EBITDA 9.0 8.2 7.4 6.4 improvement in utilisation rate and addition of new clients. Stabilisation P/BV 3.7 3.0 2.6 2.2 of the unit and new long term contracts are expected to translate to RoNW (%) 18.0 19.0 19.0 19.0 higher operating leverage and reducing fixed cost. RoCE (%) 17.7 19.5 20.6 21.2 Focus on non-oral care category to drive volume growth Stock data Non-oral care categories, dominated by toiletries, skin care and shampoo, Particular Amount use laminated tubes as packing material. Contribution of non-oral care in Market Capitalization (| Crore) 2,905.7 total revenue is expected to increase from 39.1% in FY14 to 50% in the Total Debt (FY16) (| Crore) 636.6 next two years. Contribution of non-oral in overall revenue increased to Cash and Investments (FY16) (| Crore) 85.0 41.8% in FY16. Emerging markets would be the key driver for oral and EV (| Crore) 3,457.3 non-oral care categories due to lower product penetration. Essel Propack 52 week H/L 192/ 120 (EPL) is focusing on emerging markets of Asia, Africa and Latin America Equity capital (| Crore) 31.4 to drive revenue from the non-oral care category. Face value (|) 2.0 Proceeds from sale to help reduce debt burden, interest outgo Price performance (%) We expect the company to reduce its existing debt (from sale of its 1M 3M 6M 12M subsidiary) and saving in interest outgo to the tune of ~34% over FY15 Essel Propack Ltd 13.8 12.7 13.7 42.1 while the company is expected to fund capex with internal accrual. This Time Technoplast 2.9 -8.7 -14.9 4.7 will finally aid EPS, which is expected to record CAGR of ~17% FY16-18E. Ess Dee Aluminum -12.1 -48.7 -72.7 -60.9 Recent run up in prices near term positive; change rating to HOLD Paper Product 11.3 1.5 -17.4 2.8 We model moderate revenue growth of ~12% in FY16-18E led by stabilisation of performance in Amesa, EAP and Americas regions. However, contribution of non oral care segment (relatively higher margin) Research Analyst remained flat in FY16. We expect consolidated PAT CAGR of ~17% in FY16-18E, supported by better margin and lower interest outgo. Sanjay Manyal Historically, EPL has traded at an average one year forward EV/EVBITDA [email protected] multiple of 5.7x due to lower debt level (average D/E of 0.6x). We believe Hitesh Taunk [email protected] the recent run up of stock discounts all near term positives. Hence, we value the stock at 6.8x its FY18E EBITDA (~20% premium than historical average) and change our recommendation from BUY to HOLD with a revised target price of | 198/share. ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Variance analysis Q4FY16 Q4FY16E Q4FY15 YoY (%) Q3FY16 QoQ (%) Comments Sales were affected by divestment of its flexible business, pass through of Revenue 561.4 591.7 611.7 -8.2 513.4 9.3 raw material prices to customers and lower volume offtake in Egypt region Other Income 10.4 7.7 6.7 54.5 4.2 145.2 Better realisation from COCO model yield higher other income Benign raw material prices helped in saving overall raw material cost as Raw Material Exp 258.1 299.2 308.5 -16.3 214.3 20.5 percentage of sales Employee Exp 93.2 90.9 88.5 5.2 94.3 -1.3 Decline in manufacturing cost is largely attributable to saving in cost from Manufacturing & Other exp 107.0 86.0 108.5 -1.4 102.0 4.9 divestment of flexible business EBITDA 103.1 115.7 106.2 -2.9 102.8 0.3 Saving in raw material cost was partially offset by higher employee cost and EBITDA Margin (%) 18.4 19.5 17.4 101 bps 20.0 -165 bps other expenses (as a percentage of sales), which restricted expansion in EBITDA margin to 101 bps YoY Depreciation 31.9 30.1 30.6 4.4 32.1 -0.5 Interest 15.5 12.8 19.5 -20.7 12.6 23.2 Repayment of debt helped in reducing overall tax outgo Exceptional items 11.4 0.0 -4.2 NM 1.2 PBT 54.7 80.4 67.0 -18.3 61.2 -10.6 Total Tax 13.8 24.5 19.5 -29.4 18.7 -26.3 Despite an increase in EBITDA margin and other income, decline in PAT was PAT 41.5 54.9 45.4 -8.7 42.9 -3.5 on account of exceptional item arised due to reversal of overstated gain from the divestment of PIPL Key Metrics Divestment of flexible business, and lower offtake by key customers in Egypt AMESA 208.0 227.1 270.5 -23.1 205.3 1.3 have hit the sales of AMESA regions Muted growth in the EAP region is attributable to lower realisation due to EAP 127.4 142.2 134.6 -5.3 136.0 -6.3 pass through of RM price reduction to the extent of 6% Sales largely impacted by pass through of RM prices reduction and closure of Americas 126.3 132.1 129.3 -2.3 112.5 12.3 plastic tuge operation in the US Addition of new capacity and traction more towards non-oral care categories Europe 110.2 114.2 102.0 8.1 97.3 13.3 helped revenue growth Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research Change in estimates (| Crore) FY17E FY18E Comments Old New % Change Old New % Change We have marginally tweaked our revenue estimate for FY17E and FY18E considering Revenue 2,502.0 2430.0 (2.9) 2,813.7 2726.9 (3.1) lower-than-expected volume offtake in the Amesa region EBITDA 502.9 459.3 (8.7) 551.5 515.4 (6.5) We have modelled EBITDA margin of ~19% for FY17E and FY18E each, attributable to EBITDA Margin % 20.1 18.9 -120bps 19.6 18.9 -70bps gradual stabilisation of raw material prices coupled with lower offtake of non oral care segment PAT 217.9 213.4 (2.1) 236.9 247.7 4.6 Better margin with lower interest outgo helped in improving PAT in FY18E EPS (|) 13.9 13.6 (2.0) 15.1 15.8 4.6 Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research Assumptions Current Earlier Comments FY15E FY16E FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E Performance of the Amesa regions remained under pressure due to divestment of flexible business and lower offtke of volume under non oral categories. However, growth in the AMESA Growth (%) 11.9 -19.4 10.8 12.4 12.4 12.4 Amesa region would be largely supported by rising disposable income, growing urbanisation and lower penetration of personal care products Demand for oral care products remained sluggish in the EAP region while non oral care EAP Growth (%) 7.1 2.3 11.3 12.4 14.5 14.5 recorded strong growth of 24% YoY during FY16.
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