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Foreign Military Studies Office Volume 7 Issue #5 OEWATCH June 2017 FOREIGN NEWS & PERSPECTIVES OF THE OPERATIONAL ENVIRONMENT SPECIAL ESSAY: TRENDS IN THE TURKISH MILITARY INDUSTRY MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFRICA LATIN AMERICA CENTRAL ASIA, CAUCASUS 3 Hezbollah Learning New War Fighting Skills in Syria 21 Mexican Gas Smuggling 36 More Fallout from the St. Petersburg Metro Bombing 5 Turkish Airstrikes on Kurdish Groups in Iraq and 22 Measuring Mexican Gas Theft 37 The Espionage Case Between Pakistan and India Syria: What’s Next? 23 On the Next Cuban President 39 Georgia’s “Strategic Defense Review” 6 Turkish Otokar Designs New Battle Tank for 24 About Bolivarian Motorcycle Colectivos Asymmetrical Warfare 25 Outcry over Maduro’s Military Courts RUSSIA, UKRAINE 8 Iran Unveils New Sniper Rifle 25 Venezuela: PSUV to Militarize? 40 Russia Establishes New Army Corps in the Arctic 9 Iran: Qods Force General is New Ambassador to Iraq 41 New S-500 Will Increase Russian Anti-Satellite Capability 10 Iran: Military Budget Increased 145% ASIA-PACIFIC 42 Russia Fielding First C2 System for Electronic Warfare 11 Syrian War: The Race to Deir Ezzor 26 Bhutan’s Relations With China and India Brigades 12 Internal Disputes and the Future of ISIS 27 Philippines Choose Chinese Investment Over 43 A Russian Leader to Watch 13 Saudi-UAE Friction in Yemen Territorial Defense 44 Insourcing Military Utilities and Housing 28 China and Thailand Arms Factory Deal is One Step 45 Crisis of Trust over Afghanistan AFRICA Closer 46 No Need to Fear the Spring Draft 14 “Terror Twins” Targeted South African Jewish 29 Vietnam’s Ongoing Energy Challenge 47 Winning Over Hearts and Minds in SE Ukraine Community, Others 30 China’s Push on the Belt and Road Initiative: Push- 48 Arctic Air Defense Interview 15 Post-Apartheid Pain: South Africans Question Back or Acceptance? 49 The Nature of Threats to Russia’s Western Sector and Country’s Direction 32 Operational Data: China’s Key to Victory on Future How to Address Them 16 Somalia: Concern Over AMISOM’s Future Battlefields? 17 Is the African Union Ignoring Early Warnings of 33 China Continues to Build Aircraft Carriers SPECIAL ESSAY Potential Conflict? 34 Cooperation with Civilians Leads to Killing of Abu 50 Trends in the Turkish Military Industry 18 South Sudan: Fragmenting Opposition Diminishes Sayyaf Commander Chances for Peace 35 Malacca Strait Patrols Reinvented for Sulu Sea 19 Malaria Fights Back: Africa’s Problem of Drug and Pesticide Resistance 20 Nigerian Security Challenges Interwoven with New Boko Haram Threats The Foreign Military Studies Office (FMSO) at Fort Leavenworth, Kansas, is part of the US Army Training and Doctrine Command G-2, whose mission OEWATCH is to Understand, Describe, Deliver, and Assess the conditions of the Operational Foreign News & Perspectives Environment. For over 30 years, FMSO of the Operational Environment has conducted open source research Volume 7 | Issue 5 June | 2017 on foreign perspectives of defense and security issues, emphasizing those topics that are understudied or unconsidered. Regional Analysts and Expert Contributors Operational Environment Watch provides translated selections and Middle East, North Africa Karen Kaya analysis from a diverse range of Michael Rubin Lucas Winter foreign articles and other media that our analysts and expert contributors Africa Robert Feldman Jacob Zenn believe will give military and security professionals an added dimension Latin America Geoff Demarest to their critical thinking about the Asia-Pacific Cindy Hurst Operational Environment. Sudha Ramachandran Tim Thomas Materials, outside of the original foreign press Peter Wood article, under copyright have not been used. All Jacob Zenn articles published in the Operational Environment Watch are not provided in full, and were originally Central Asia, Caucasus Matthew Stein published in foreign (non-US) media. FMSO has provided some editing, format, and Russia, Ukraine Chuck Bartles graphics to these articles to conform to organizational Ray Finch standards. Academic conventions, source referencing, Les Grau and citation style are those of the author. Tim Thomas The views expressed are those of the author and do not represent the official policy or position of the Department of the Army, Department of Defense, or Editor-in-Chief Tom Wilhelm Editor Karen Kaya the US Government. Release of this information does Design Editor Lucas Winter not imply any commitment or intent on the part of the US Government to provide any additional information on any topic presented herein. The Operational Environment Watch is archived and available at: https://community.apan.org/wg/ tradoc-g2/fmso/. ON THE COVER: Derivative work based on: 1. The Altay tank with multispectral camo net show cased at IDEF 2017; 2. Flag-map of Turkey; 3. Modern Istanbul skyline at sunset Sources: 1. Wikimedia.org, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3AAltayCamoNet.png, Taken from visitors at IDEF 2017.in Turkey [CC BY- SA 4.0]; 2. By Darwinek (Own work) [CC BY-SA 3.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0) or GFDL (http://www.gnu.org/copyleft/fdl. html)], via Wikimedia Commons; 3. By Ben Morlok [CC BY-SA 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFRICA Hezbollah Learning New War Fighting Skills in Syria OE Watch Commentary: The accompanying passages from Middle Eastern sources discuss reports that Hezbollah has been “[Hezbollah’s] increased level of expertise has learning a new set of war fighting skills in Syria. The passages reflected a change in the perception of Hezbollah from Israeli sources discuss Israel’s changing threat perceptions of Hezbollah, given this development. by Israel ... The Institute for National Security Studies’ annual report ... underlined a significant The first accompanying passage quotes a Hezbollah fighter as saying that they have been “learning a lot by working with Russians strengthening of Hezbollah, surpassing Iran ‘as and Iranians in the Syria war and more specifically when it comes to the greatest danger to Israel’.” UAVs.” In addition, the excerpt discusses that “Hezbollah has moved from an entity always fighting the same enemy in the same place (Israel in south Lebanon) to multiple new war theatres, from barren Source: Mona Alami, “ANALYSIS: Hezbollah enters drone age mountains to flat agricultural areas and inner cities.” The group is with bombing raids in Syria,” Middle East Eye, 20 March 2017. also reported to have learned to use intelligence and reconnaissance to http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/analysis-hezbollah-enters- develop more complex offensive operations. Hezbollah is reportedly new-war-use-armed-drones-syria-11412100 also improving its logistics, offensive operations skills and learning to During an interview last month in Lebanon, a Hezbollah hold and control ground. fighter told Middle East Eye: “We are definitely learning a lot by Meanwhile, Israel is monitoring these developments. The excerpt working with Russians and Iranians in the Syria war and more quotes Avi Melamed, a former Israeli intelligence official and expert specifically when it comes to UAVs. on Israeli affairs, who says that Israel closely follows Hezbollah in Blanford [a Hezbollah expert] meanwhile said Hezbollah many ways, and is particularly monitoring their use of drones. was not only developing its knowledge of drones but is also practising a new set of war fighting skills in Syria. The second passage discusses a report by Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies, which points to a significant strengthening This entails calling in strikes, improved logistics to troops of Hezbollah. The piece notes that last year, Iran was ranked as the deployed, improved offensive operations skills and learning to biggest threat to Israel, while Hezbollah appeared to be bleeding from hold and control ground. its involvement in the Syrian war. However, it notes that over the “Hezbollah moved from an entity always fighting the same past year, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) has witnessed Hezbollah enemy in the same place (Israel in south Lebanon) to multiple make it through the Syrian war. The piece discusses that Hezbollah new war theatres, from barren mountains to flat agricultural now possesses precision weaponry that can hit any point on the areas and inner cities, all of which are unfamiliar to the map in Israel and claims that the group has the ability to deter the organisation’s cadres,” he said. Israeli air force and its stealth capabilities, the navy, its missile boats “Hezbollah has also learned to fight in larger unit sizes and and the ground forces. Given this background, the excerpt notes alongside other militaries which it has never done before. It even that Hezbollah has surpassed Iran as the greatest danger to Israel boasts an armoured brigade today. according to the think tank’s threat rankings. “It has also learned how to use intelligence and reconnaissance While Israel has avoided getting involved in the Syrian conflict, to develop more complex offensive operations.” weapons transfers to Hezbollah have often triggered a response by This increased level of expertise has also reflected a change in Israel. An incident in March was particularly worth noting, as it led the perception of Hezbollah by Israel. According to the Institute to the first reported use of Israel’s Arrow Missile Defense system. for National Security Studies’ annual report, it underlined a As the final excerpt from the Times of Israel reports, on 17 March, significant strengthening of Hezbollah, surpassing Iran “as the the Syrian armed forces fired three surface-to-air missiles (SAM) greatest danger to Israel”. against Israeli Air Force (IAF) jets, in response to Israeli jets striking Iran was ranked the biggest threat to Israel last year. Hezbollah targets in Syria. One of these missiles was intercepted by ... the Israeli Arrow missile defense system. This marked the deepest Israeli strike inside Syria since the civil war began and the first Avi Melamed, a former Israeli intelligence official and expert reported use of the advanced missile defense system.