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Volume 7 Issue #5 OEWATCH June 2017 Foreign News & Perspectives of the Operational Environment

SPECIAL ESSAY: TRENDS IN THE TURKISH MILITARY INDUSTRY

MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFRICA LATIN AMERICA CENTRAL ASIA, CAUCASUS 3 Hezbollah Learning New War Fighting Skills in 21 Mexican Gas Smuggling 36 More Fallout from the St. Petersburg Metro Bombing 5 Turkish Airstrikes on Kurdish Groups in and 22 Measuring Mexican Gas Theft 37 The Espionage Case Between Pakistan and India Syria: What’s Next? 23 On the Next Cuban President 39 Georgia’s “Strategic Defense Review” 6 Turkish Otokar Designs New Battle Tank for 24 About Bolivarian Motorcycle Colectivos Asymmetrical Warfare 25 Outcry over Maduro’s Military Courts RUSSIA, UKRAINE 8 Unveils New Sniper Rifle 25 Venezuela: PSUV to Militarize? 40 Russia Establishes New Army Corps in the Arctic 9 Iran: Qods Force General is New Ambassador to Iraq 41 New S-500 Will Increase Russian Anti-Satellite Capability 10 Iran: Military Budget Increased 145% ASIA-PACIFIC 42 Russia Fielding First C2 System for Electronic Warfare 11 Syrian War: The Race to Deir Ezzor 26 Bhutan’s Relations With China and India Brigades 12 Internal Disputes and the Future of ISIS 27 Philippines Choose Chinese Investment Over 43 A Russian Leader to Watch 13 Saudi-UAE Friction in Yemen Territorial Defense 44 Insourcing Military Utilities and Housing 28 China and Thailand Arms Factory Deal is One Step 45 Crisis of Trust over Afghanistan AFRICA Closer 46 No Need to Fear the Spring Draft 14 “Terror Twins” Targeted South African Jewish 29 Vietnam’s Ongoing Energy Challenge 47 Winning Over Hearts and Minds in SE Ukraine Community, Others 30 China’s Push on the Belt and Road Initiative: Push- 48 Arctic Air Defense Interview 15 Post-Apartheid Pain: South Africans Question Back or Acceptance? 49 The Nature of Threats to Russia’s Western Sector and Country’s Direction 32 Operational Data: China’s Key to Victory on Future How to Address Them 16 Somalia: Concern Over AMISOM’s Future Battlefields? 17 Is the African Union Ignoring Early Warnings of 33 China Continues to Build Aircraft Carriers SPECIAL ESSAY Potential Conflict? 34 Cooperation with Civilians Leads to Killing of Abu 50 Trends in the Turkish Military Industry 18 South Sudan: Fragmenting Opposition Diminishes Sayyaf Commander Chances for Peace 35 Malacca Strait Patrols Reinvented for Sulu Sea 19 Malaria Fights Back: Africa’s Problem of Drug and Pesticide Resistance 20 Nigerian Security Challenges Interwoven with New Threats The Foreign Military Studies Office (FMSO) at Fort Leavenworth, Kansas, is part of the US Army Training and Doctrine Command G-2, whose mission OEWATCH is to Understand, Describe, Deliver, and Assess the conditions of the Operational Foreign News & Perspectives Environment. For over 30 years, FMSO of the Operational Environment has conducted open source research Volume 7 | Issue 5 June | 2017 on foreign perspectives of defense and security issues, emphasizing those topics that are understudied or unconsidered. Regional Analysts and Expert Contributors Operational Environment Watch provides translated selections and Middle East, North Africa Karen Kaya analysis from a diverse range of Michael Rubin Lucas Winter foreign articles and other media that our analysts and expert contributors Africa Robert Feldman Jacob Zenn believe will give military and security professionals an added dimension Latin America Geoff Demarest to their critical thinking about the Asia-Pacific Cindy Hurst Operational Environment. Sudha Ramachandran Tim Thomas Materials, outside of the original foreign press Peter Wood article, under copyright have not been used. All Jacob Zenn articles published in the Operational Environment Watch are not provided in full, and were originally Central Asia, Caucasus Matthew Stein published in foreign (non-US) media. FMSO has provided some editing, format, and Russia, Ukraine Chuck Bartles graphics to these articles to conform to organizational Ray Finch standards. Academic conventions, source referencing, Les Grau and citation style are those of the author. Tim Thomas

The views expressed are those of the author and do not represent the official policy or position of the Department of the Army, Department of Defense, or Editor-in-Chief Tom Wilhelm Editor Karen Kaya the US Government. Release of this information does Design Editor Lucas Winter not imply any commitment or intent on the part of the

US Government to provide any additional information on any topic presented herein. The Operational Environment Watch is archived and available at: https://community.apan.org/wg/ tradoc-g2/fmso/.

ON THE COVER: Derivative work based on: 1. The Altay tank with multispectral camo net show cased at IDEF 2017; 2. Flag-map of ; 3. Modern skyline at sunset Sources: 1. Wikimedia.org, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3AAltayCamoNet.png, Taken from visitors at IDEF 2017.in Turkey [CC BY- SA 4.0]; 2. By Darwinek (Own work) [CC BY-SA 3.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0) or GFDL (http://www.gnu.org/copyleft/fdl. html)], via Wikimedia Commons; 3. By Ben Morlok [CC BY-SA 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFRICA Hezbollah Learning New War Fighting Skills in Syria

OE Watch Commentary: The accompanying passages from Middle Eastern sources discuss reports that Hezbollah has been “[Hezbollah’s] increased level of expertise has learning a new set of war fighting skills in Syria. The passages reflected a change in the perception of Hezbollah from Israeli sources discuss Israel’s changing threat perceptions of Hezbollah, given this development. by Israel ... The Institute for National Security Studies’ annual report ... underlined a significant The first accompanying passage quotes a Hezbollah fighter as saying that they have been “learning a lot by working with Russians strengthening of Hezbollah, surpassing Iran ‘as and Iranians in the Syria war and more specifically when it comes to the greatest danger to Israel’.” UAVs.” In addition, the excerpt discusses that “Hezbollah has moved from an entity always fighting the same enemy in the same place (Israel in south Lebanon) to multiple new war theatres, from barren Source: Mona Alami, “ANALYSIS: Hezbollah enters drone age mountains to flat agricultural areas and inner cities.” The group is with bombing raids in Syria,” Middle East Eye, 20 March 2017. also reported to have learned to use intelligence and reconnaissance to http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/analysis-hezbollah-enters- develop more complex offensive operations. Hezbollah is reportedly new-war-use-armed-drones-syria-11412100 also improving its logistics, offensive operations skills and learning to During an interview last month in Lebanon, a Hezbollah hold and control ground. fighter told Middle East Eye: “We are definitely learning a lot by Meanwhile, Israel is monitoring these developments. The excerpt working with Russians and Iranians in the Syria war and more quotes Avi Melamed, a former Israeli intelligence official and expert specifically when it comes to UAVs. on Israeli affairs, who says that Israel closely follows Hezbollah in Blanford [a Hezbollah expert] meanwhile said Hezbollah many ways, and is particularly monitoring their use of drones. was not only developing its knowledge of drones but is also practising a new set of war fighting skills in Syria. The second passage discusses a report by Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies, which points to a significant strengthening This entails calling in strikes, improved logistics to troops of Hezbollah. The piece notes that last year, Iran was ranked as the deployed, improved offensive operations skills and learning to biggest threat to Israel, while Hezbollah appeared to be bleeding from hold and control ground. its involvement in the Syrian war. However, it notes that over the “Hezbollah moved from an entity always fighting the same past year, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) has witnessed Hezbollah enemy in the same place (Israel in south Lebanon) to multiple make it through the Syrian war. The piece discusses that Hezbollah new war theatres, from barren mountains to flat agricultural now possesses precision weaponry that can hit any point on the areas and inner cities, all of which are unfamiliar to the map in Israel and claims that the group has the ability to deter the organisation’s cadres,” he said. Israeli air force and its stealth capabilities, the navy, its missile boats “Hezbollah has also learned to fight in larger unit sizes and and the ground forces. Given this background, the excerpt notes alongside other militaries which it has never done before. It even that Hezbollah has surpassed Iran as the greatest danger to Israel boasts an armoured brigade today. according to the think tank’s threat rankings. “It has also learned how to use intelligence and reconnaissance While Israel has avoided getting involved in the Syrian conflict, to develop more complex offensive operations.” weapons transfers to Hezbollah have often triggered a response by This increased level of expertise has also reflected a change in Israel. An incident in March was particularly worth noting, as it led the perception of Hezbollah by Israel. According to the Institute to the first reported use of Israel’s Arrow Missile Defense system. for National Security Studies’ annual report, it underlined a As the final excerpt from the Times of Israel reports, on 17 March, significant strengthening of Hezbollah, surpassing Iran “as the the Syrian armed forces fired three surface-to-air missiles (SAM) greatest danger to Israel”. against Israeli Air Force (IAF) jets, in response to Israeli jets striking Iran was ranked the biggest threat to Israel last year. Hezbollah targets in Syria. One of these missiles was intercepted by ... the Israeli Arrow missile defense system. This marked the deepest Israeli strike inside Syria since the civil war began and the first Avi Melamed, a former Israeli intelligence official and expert reported use of the advanced missile defense system. The excerpt on Israeli affairs, said: notes that the IDF was reportedly targeting a Hezbollah weapons “Israel follows closely Hezbollah in many ways and in many convoy in Syria, which triggered the Syrian response. End OE aspects. The use of drones is of course one of the issues closely Watch Commentary (Kaya) monitored by Israel.”

(continued) OE Watch | June 2017 3 MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFRICA Continued: Hezbollah Learning New War Fighting Skills in Syria

Source: Noam Amir, “Analysis: Hezbollah Now Serves as Source: Judah Ari Gross and Times of Israel Staff, “ IAF ‘Arrow’ battery the Biggest Threat to Israel,” Jerusalem Post, 3 January intercepts Syrian missile, in first reported use of the system,”The Times of 2017. http://www.jpost.com/Arab-Israeli-Conflict/ Israel, 17 March 2017. http://www.timesofisrael.com/iaf-arrow-battery- Analysis-Hezbollah-now-serves-as-the-biggest-threat-to- intercepts-syrian-missile-in-first-reported-use-of-the-system/ Israel-477327 “At approximately 2:30 a.m. [on 17 March], Israeli “aircraft targeted several “The Institute for National Security Studies’ annual targets in Syria,” the Israel Defense Forces said, prompting a Syrian attempt report ... points to a significant strengthening of Hezbollah, to down the Israeli jets. which surpassed Iran as the greatest danger to Israel According to Arab media, the target of the IAF strikes was a Hezbollah according to the think tank’s threat rankings. weapons convoy. “Several anti-aircraft missiles were launched from Syria Iran was ranked the biggest threat to Israel last year, following the mission and IDF aerial defense systems intercepted one of the as Hezbollah appeared to be bashed and bloodied from missiles,” the army said in a statement. its involvement in the and deterred from ... challenging Israel. The anti-aircraft missiles were fired from eastern Syria by Bashar Assad’s Over the past year, however, the IDF and the defense military, traveling over Jordan and toward the Jerusalem area. They were establishment saw Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan apparently SA-5 surface-to-air missiles (SAMs). Nasrallah make it through the Syrian civil war...... The IDF statement was rare, if not unprecedented, as the Israeli military Hezbollah today possesses precision weaponry that can does not generally admit to carrying out specific actions in Syria other than hit any point on the map in Israel. They have the ability to retaliations to spillover fire from fighting near the border. However, Israel has deter the air force and its stealth capabilities, the navy and acknowledged that it does, generally speaking, attack such convoys traveling its missile boats and the ground forces... from Syria to Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Diagram showing stages of missile interception by the Arrow system. The picture shows a hostile missile trajectory and that of the Black Sparrow air-launched target missile used in firing tests. By United States Missile Defense Agency [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Fil e%3AArrow_system.jpg, Public Domain. OE Watch | June 2017 4 MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFRICA Turkish Airstrikes on Kurdish Groups in Iraq and Syria: What’s Next? Source: “Press Statement,” The Website of the , 3 May OE Watch Commentary: On 25 April, a wave of 2017. http://www.tsk.tr/BasinFaaliyetleri Turkish airstrikes struck Kurdish groups at Mount Sinjar (in Iraq) and at Mount Karachok (in Syria) located On 25 April 2017, the Turkish Armed Forces carried out an air operation approximately 90 kilometers south of the border with within the framework of our rights based on international law; with the goal Turkey, leaving 25 fighters dead. The accompanying of eliminating terror cells in the regions of north Iraq/Sinjar Mountain and passages from Turkish sources, including a press northeastern Syria/Mt. Karachok, which are used to support and carry out statement by the Turkish Armed Forces (TAF), discuss PKK/PYD terror acts which target the unity, integrity and security of our these strikes from the Turkish point of view. country and nation. Prior to the said air operation, the civil and military representatives of all The first passage is the complete press statement by involved countries were contacted and informed as necessary, within the the TAF regarding the air operation. Dated 3 May, the framework of previously agreed upon rules. statement declares that the TAF carried out the operations The Turkish Armed Forces took all the preventive measures to ensure that with the goal of eliminating terror cells in regions which no harm is done to the potential civilian population and personnel from other are used as bases to support and carry out terror acts by countries in the operation region, and maximum sensitivity has been shown on the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and the Democratic this issue. Union Party (PYD) “which target the unity, integrity and The Turkish Armed Forces and all of the units of our security forces are security of our country and nation.” The statement goes conducting this fight against the separatist terror organization, both within and on to say that all the countries that have forces in the area beyond our country’s borders, with absolute determination and resolve. The were notified and informed; and maximum attention was operations will continue with the same resolve and determination until the last paid to prevent any civilian casualties. It also notes that terrorist has been neutralized. the fight against the “separatist terror organization” will continue with absolute resolve and determination “until We inform the public with respect. the last terrorist is neutralized.” The term “separatist terror organization” is often used to refer to the PKK, which Source: “Abdülkadir Selvi, “Operasyon gecesi Genelkurmay’da yaşananlar Turkey considers to be synonymous with the PYD in (The events in the General Staff on the night of the operation),” Hurriyet.com.tr, Syria. Turkey has a painful history with the PKK, which 26 April 2017. http://www.hurriyet.com.tr/yazarlar/abdulkadir-selvi/operasyon- has been waging a separatist war and conducting terror gecesi-genelkurmayda-yasananlar-40438402 attacks inside the country on and off since 1984, resulting The Operation’s Messages in the loss of over 40,000 lives. No doubt the operation has a military and a political message. The second passage, by a Turkish columnist considered The military message: The PKK was placed in Sinjar in a fait accompli. This close to the government, discusses the political and area became a second Qandil. We are aware of this and we will not allow this. military messages that were meant to be conveyed with The political message: Turkey’s determination message was relayed to the U.S., the air operation. He notes that the message to the PKK Iraq and the Syrian regime. And right before President Erdogan’s visit to the was that Turkey is aware that Sinjar is becoming a second U.S. Qandil (a reference to the mountains in Northern Iraq The operation also has a message to the PKK. The PKK thought that it where the PKK has been based for years), and that Turkey wouldn’t be targeted in Sinjar. It was using the Yazidis in Sinjar as camouflage. will not allow this. He also claims that a political message Sinjar and Karachok were targeted with precision. The message to the is being sent to the US, Iraq and the Syrian regime, PKK was, “I’ll hit you even in Sinjar.” Based on the reporting from after namely that Turkey is determined to fight the PKK, the operation, it is clear that the targeting of Sinjar caused a great deal of wherever they are. He also notes that while a potential destruction for the PKK. The PKK had started moving some of its forces from ground offensive is not completely out of the question, it is Qandil to Sinjar. And our intelligence units were identifying increased activity not happening for now. (continued) in Sinjar, with the arrival of the spring months. Is there a ground operation on the horizon? It is within the realm of possibility but right now they are only conducting air operations.

“On 25 April 2017, the Turkish Armed Forces carried out an air operation within the framework of our rights based on international law; with the goal of eliminating terror cells in the regions of north Iraq/Sinjar Mountain and northeastern Syria/Mt. Karachok, which are used to support and carry out PKK/PYD terror acts which target the unity, integrity and security of our country and nation.” - Turkish Armed Forces Statement (continued) OE Watch | June 2017 5 MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFRICA Continued: Turkish Airstrikes on Kurdish Groups in Iraq and Syria: What’s Next?

The final passage features statements Source: “Turkey may come to PKK-held Sinjar overnight, President Erdoğan says,” by Turkish President Erdoğan, repeating Daily Sabah, 29 April 2017. https://www.dailysabah.com/war-on-terror/2017/04/29/ that Turkey will not tolerate the presence turkey-may-come-to-pkk-held-sinjar-overnight-president-erdogan-says of PKK terror groups in northern Iraq and northeastern Syria, and hinting at a potential President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan warned Saturday [29 April] once again that Turkey surprise cross-border operation. It should be will not tolerate the presence of the PKK terror organization and their affiliated groups noted that Turkey already has ground troops in northern Iraq’s Sinjar region and northern Syria. in Iraq, at the Bashiqa camp, where it has “Turkey knows what to do and when to do it, we may come there overnight all of a been training fighters to retake Mosul from sudden,” Erdoğan said, hinting at a cross-border operation to drive the terrorist group ISIS. End OE Watch Commentary (Kaya) from the areas in its south.

The Syrian Crisis from a Neighbor’s Perspective: View from Turkey by Karen Kaya What started out as internal turmoil in Syria in March 2011 turned into a regional crisis, which then turned into an international crisis. The crisis in Syria is now affecting the surrounding region, most critically Syria’s neighbors, who have all had to contend with instability at their borders. This article analyzes the Syrian crisis from Turkey’s perspective, discussing the direct security threats that it poses to Turkey. The article focuses on the following four themes: Border security and the spill-over effects of internal clashes; Turkey’s concerns regarding the formation of an autonomous Kurdish region in northern Syria; its concerns regarding the PKK expanding its base and influence; and the risk of Turkey having a jihadi presence on its border along with becoming a transit point for Islamic militants going to join the fighting in Syria. https://community.apan.org/wg/tradoc-g2/fmso/

Turkish Otokar Designs New Battle Tank for Asymmetrical Warfare OE Watch Commentary: Turkey’s main military vehicle manufacturer Otokar has unveiled a new version of Turkey’s first new-generation main battle tank, the Altay. As the accompanying passages discuss, this new version, called the Altay-AHT, is the “urban operation” version of the same tank, and is designed for asymmetrical warfare. The design reportedly incorporated lessons learned from the Euphrates Shield Operation that the Turkish Armed Forces had launched in Syria in August 2016. The passages discuss the capabilities of this tank and its export potential for armies looking to renew their battle tanks.

As the first passage from Turkish daily Milliyet discuses, the Altay-AHT was showcased at the International Defense Industry Fair in Istanbul in early May. The passage features comments by Otokar’s general manager Serdar Görgüç, who notes that the Altay-AHT tank was designed in response to hybrid and asymmetrical threats, with the future needs of the Turkish Armed Forces in mind. He also discusses that the new tank will have high export potential, claiming that most of the battle tanks were designed with the technology of the 1970’s and 1980’s and that a new era is about to begin, where many armies will be looking to update or revise their battle tanks. He notes that the Altay will be a strong option for such armies.

The second passage, from Otokar’s website discusses the features of the tank, which include explosive reactive armor and bar armor systems on each side for better survivability against guided and unguided ballistic missile attacks. The tank also has improved situational awareness with the addition of a telescopic elevated observation system. It is fitted with a jammer to protect against remote controlled improvised explosive devices and equipped with a directional dozer blade that can be operated by the driver. Its gunshot detection system can identify the direction of sniper threats; its laser warning system can identify threats by laser-guided, anti-tank missiles; and its laser range finders can measure distance. The vehicle can also release a layer of smoke toward the direction of an identified threat.

The Turkish government will decide this year whether to sign a serial product contract with Otokar for the Altay-AHT or launch competition for the contract. These developments are taking place within the greater context of a Turkish military industry which is working to become more self-sufficient while increasing defense exports. The longer-term goal is to become one of the top 10 countries in the world in the military industry. (For more information, see the Special Essay in this issue, “Trends in the Turkish Military Industry.”) End OE Watch Commentary (Kaya) (continued) OE Watch | June 2017 6 MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFRICA Continued: Turkish Otokar Designs New Battle Tank for Asymmetrical Warfare “We worked on a new version of the Altay based on the experiences gain in the Euphrates Shield Operation ... and developed a different type of Altay, which is the Asymmetric Battle Tank.” - Otokar’s general manager Serdar Görgüç

Source: “Altay tankı gücüne güç kattı (The Altay tank has added strength to its Source: “Otokar Unveils Altay-AHT, Urban strength!),” Milliyet.com.tr, 10 May 2017. http://www.milliyet.com.tr/altay-tanki- Operations Tank at the IDEF,” Otokar.com. gucune-guc-katti--otomobil-2447772/ tr, Undated. https://www.otokar.com/en-us/ corporate/media/news/Pages/altay-urban-idef. Otokar has produced the new and improved Altay Asymmetrical War Tank (ALTAY aspx AHT), based on the experiences gained from the Euphrates Shield Operation. • Explosive Reactive Armour (ERA) At the 13th International Defense Industry Fair (IDEF 2017), Otokar is exhibiting and Bar Armour Systems are applied on the [new version] of the national main battle tank the Altay: the Altay Asymmetrical the tank to enhance its survivability against War Tank (ALTAY AHT), which was developed in accordance with asymmetrical war guided and unguided ballistic missile attacks conditions in peace-support operations. that pose great threat in 360-degrees for main ... battle tanks in hybrid and asymmetric combat Altay’s new hardware conditions. [Otokar’s general manager Serdar] Görgüç, who provided information about the Altay • Situational awareness improved with the AHT said, “We worked on a new version of the Altay based on the experiences gain in addition of Telescopic Elevated Observation the Euphrates Shield Operation.... and developed a different type of Altay, which is the System (EOS), YAMGÖZ system that enables Asymmetric Battle Tank.” Görgüç, who explained that the new version [of the tank] is 360-degrees awareness, and repositioning of designed as an urban operation vehicle, said that the tank ended up with equipped with remote control weapon stations (RCWS). various sensors, sub-systems and protective measures. • The tank is fitted with a Jammer against Görgüç said: “For example, on both sides of the tank, there are stronger armor against remote control IED attacks. The Gunshot missiles that may come from the sides, and the ceiling features an electro-optical column Detection System can identify the direction of that can see 10-15 km away... Similarly, the vehicle can release a layer of smoke to sniper threats, the Laser Warning System can mislead laser-guided missiles, which works with the laser-warning system. In addition, identify the threats by laser guided anti-tank there is a gunshot detection system can identify the direction of sniper threats, giving the missiles, and laser range finders that measure personnel [inside the vehicle] detailed coordinates of the sniper.” distance. The direction of the identified threat ... can be automatically smoked using the Soft Kill (Smart Smoke Curtain) System. The EOS, “Most of the tanks were produced with the technology of the 1970’s and 1980’s. The RCWS and tank turret can be automatically Altay, with its brand new technology, and its numerous capabilities, represents an directed to the threat depending on the user’s alternative to these older tanks. Tanks typically stay in an army’s inventory for 20-30 preference. years, but these are all getting old. So, both in the western armies and in the eastern armies, a new era is about to start, where tanks get updated or renewed. Some try to • The tank is fitted with a directional deal with this problem by renovating old systems but this is just a band-aid and does dozer blade that can be operated by the not really improve the capability of the tank. When we consider all of these factors, driver, and used for a variety of tasks such the Altay is a good Turkish product and will be successful in export markets as well. as preparing the defence lines, clearing the For armies that are looking to renew their inventory, we believe it will be a strong and obstacles on the battlefield, and filling the tank alternative product.” trenches.

The RED DIAMOND is the Army’s leading e-journal highlighting current threats in the Operational Environment. It is published by TRADOC G-2 OEE ACE Threats Integration and is posted at: https://atn.army.mil/dsp_template.aspx?dpID=377

OE Watch | June 2017 7 MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFRICA Iran Unveils New Sniper Rifle

OE Watch Commentary: Iranian authorities continue to steer resources Source: “Jadidtarin Tektirand az Irani ba Nam Heidar into the Islamic Republic’s domestic armament industry. After the Islamic Ravanmayi shod (Iran Unveils its newest Sniper Rifle called Revolution, then-leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini declared 18 April to be Heidar),” Boultan.ir, 16 April 2017. https://goo.gl/P9fPWf Islamic Republic of Iran Army Day. Each year, the government celebrates this day with military parades and, in recent years, it has also used the occasion to During a ceremony attended by the chief-of-staff of the unveil new developments and equipment. This year was no exception: Iranian army, a new “Heidar” semi-automatic sniper rifle and authorities unveiled a new ‘Nasir’ anti-ship missile, an upgraded Mohajer-6 the newest army products were unveiled. According to the , the Heidar-5 vehicle to lay -2 mines, and a .50 defense team, in the presence of [Gen.] caliber Heidar sniper rifle. Amir Kiomars Heidari, commander of the ground forces, ahead of the Army Day of the Islamic Republic of Iran [April In the excerpted article which appears to be a reprint from the Tasnim News 18] unveiled the newest products of this force which by Agency which is affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the virtue of our jihad the army has achieved self-sufficiency in details of the new sniper rifle are provided. However, the specifications are production. [Specifications] include: curious: The sniper rifle is far heavier than the French FR F2 used since 1986 • The 50 caliber semi-automatic “Heidar” sniper rifle. and put into action most recently in Afghanistan and the Hécate II, the French army’s standard-issue heavy sniper rifle, yet lacks its 1,800 meter useful range.1 • The weight of the weapon without its magazine and accessories is 11.057 kilograms [24.37 lbs] and with all the Even if the Heidar sniper rifle may be heavy, exaggerated, and unwieldy, the accessories, it is 17.5 kilograms [38.58 lbs]. Body length Iranian manufacture of sniper rifles might raise operational concerns given is 33.6 centimeters [13.2 inches], barrel length is 81.28 Iranian patterns of proliferation in areas such as Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, and centimeters [32 inch], and length with full accessories is Yemen. End OE Watch Commentary (Rubin) 134.86 centimeters [53.09 inches]. Initial muzzle velocity is 1,734 meters per second [5689 feet per second], and it has a 5,000 bullet barrel life. It has a useful range of 1,600 meters, a maximum effective range of 2,000 meters, and a maximum 1. “PGM Hécate II,” Ministère de la défense, no date, www.defense.gouv.fr/content/download/105853/1034977/file/HECATE.pdf range of 3,000 meters

OE Watch | June 2017 8 MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFRICA Iran: Qods Force General is New Ambassador to Iraq

OE Watch Commentary: While most countries appoint traditional diplomats to “Iraqi officials expressed their hope that Iran’s new ambassador represent their governments in Baghdad, the would further expand relations between the two countries.” Islamic Republic of Iran continues to name ambassadors to Iraq not from Iran’s foreign Source: “Safir-e Jadid Iran dar Iraq Varad Baghdad Shod (The New Iranian Ambassador ministry but rather from the Qods Force, the elite to Iraq Has Arrived in Baghdad),” Donya-e Eqtesad, 19 April 2017. http://donya-e- unit of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps eqtesad.com/news/1097580 charged with export of Iran’s revolution. Various Before an [assembled] group of Iraqi foreign affairs ministry officials and heads US government entities consider the Qods Force of Iran-related departments in Iraq, on Wednesday afternoon Iraj Masjedi, the new to be the main Iranian mechanism to engage in ambassador of Iran to Iraq, arrived in Baghdad. Outgoing ambassador Hassan terrorism. Danaeifar, Nasir al-Azzawi, head of the protocol department in the Iraqi Ministry of The excerpted article from Iran’s most Foreign Affairs, and Muhammad ‘Amr, head of the neighboring state bureau in the prominent economic daily describes the arrival Iraqi Ministry of Foreign Affairs, were present at the welcoming ceremony. Senior Iraqi of Iraj Masjedi in Baghdad to take over Iran’s foreign ministry officials were also present for the arrival of Iraj Masiji at Baghdad embassy there. What it omits is mention of International Airport, and offered a warm welcome and they expressed their hope that Masjedi’s background. According to a 2012 Iran’s new ambassador would further expand relations between the two countries profile of Masjedi written by Danish analyst Ali Iranian news agencies circulated reports that IRGC Brig. Gen. Iraj Masjedi started in Alfoneh, Masjedi is a brigadier-general in the his position as Iran’s ambassador to Iraq on April 18. Masjedi previously served as a Qods Force who served in several leadership senior advisor to IRGC Quds Forces Commander Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani. roles in forward operating bases during the Iran- Brigadier General Iraj Masjedi, a senior aide to Commander Major . In recent years, the Iranian press has General Qassem Soleimani, was reportedly welcomed by a senior delegation from described him as a senior advisor to Qods Force Iraq’s Foreign Ministry at the Baghdad International Airport. He replaces Hassan leader Qassem Soleimani. His promotion to be Danaeifar, who served as Tehran’s ambassador to Baghdad for more than six years. Iranian ambassador to Iraq suggests that Tehran’s According to , an outlet affiliated with the Islamic Revolution focus in Iraq in the coming years will be Guards Corps (I.R.G.C.), the Iraqi government had approved Tehran’s controversial military. End OE Watch Commentary (Rubin) ambassador nominee last month.

Iraj Masjidi, Iran’s new ambassador to Iraq. Source: Islamic Students News Agency, http://cdn.isna.ir/d/2017/01/15/3/57418182.jpg , Public Domain

OE Watch | June 2017 9 MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFRICA Iran: Military Budget Increased 145% OE Watch Commentary: Many in Western diplomatic circles view Iranian President “The defense budget grew 145 as a pragmatist or reformer but, within his decades-long career inside the Islamic Republic, he has always been the regime’s “Mr. Fix-it,” especially with regard to percent since the beginning of [my] questions over Iran’s military arsenal. Revolutionary leader Ayatollah Khomeini turned to administration…” Rouhani to institutionalize the Iranian military at the conclusion of the Iran-Iraq War. Between 1988 and 2005, Rouhani was secretary of the Supreme National Security - Iranian President Hassan Rouhani Council, effectively in charge of coordinating investment in Iran’s ballistic missile and then-covert nuclear enrichment and warhead design programs. Source: “Budgeh-e Defa’e 145 dar sad nesbat beh Agaz Dawlet Rashad It is against this backdrop that Rouhani’s statement on Islamic Republic of Iran Army Day bragging Dashteh Ast (Defense Budget Grew about his administration’s investment in Iran’s military becomes so important. In the excerpted 145% Since the Beginning of passage, Rouhani brags about a 145 percent increase in Iran’s military budget, a figure which he might Administration),” Iran, 19 April also use to shore up his credentials before this summer’s presidential elections. Such a major increase 2017. http://www.iran-newspaper. coinciding with the windfall Iran received in unfrozen assets—the Iranian state media claimed to have com/Newspaper/BlockPrint/180105 received $100 billion —following the activation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action suggests that the Iranian government has disproportionately invested its augmented income into Iranian military The president of the republic, programs. After all, against the backdrop of a presidential campaign in which Rouhani’s handling of during the Islamic Republic of Iran the economy has been a central subject of debate, Rouhani has not been able to make similar claims Army Day celebrations [said]: with regard to domestic expenditures when faced with a public increasingly uneasy over their standard The defense budget grew 145 of living. percent since the beginning of [my] administration…. The president of While Iranian authorities have used their defense budget to develop their indigenous military the republic said that love, trust industry, they also continue to import certain technologies. One noteworthy example of this is Iran’s and the sense of religious duty purchase of the S-300 air defense missile system from Russia, which was displayed during the military parade following Rouhani’s speech. End OE Watch Commentary (Rubin) towards the Commander-in-Chief is a distinguishing feature of the commanders of the armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran and stressed: “Our power is defensive and deterrent, not offensive but we have demonstrated how firm and decisive we are against aggressors.”

President Hassan Rouhani speaks at National Army Day. Source: Islamic Republic News Agency, http://img8.irna.ir/1396/13960129/3441753/3441753-5777663.jpg, Public Domain

OE Watch | June 2017 10 MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFRICA Syrian War: The Race to Deir Ezzor OE Watch Commentary: The strategic depth of the and Syria (ISIS) in Syria lies not in “…The tribes of Deir Ezzor will not welcome the Province but further down the Euphrates, near the regime or SDF forces. The advance of either of these border with Iraq, in the province of Deir Ezzor (Dayr az Zawr). Deir Ezzor and Iraq’s Anbar Province were divided will push these tribes to fight alongside ISIS…” by a berm and occasional border posts until the summer الخوف من القادم، عشائر دير الزور ما بعد داعش :of 2014, when ISIS gained control over both provinces and Source effectively erased the border. The majority of Deir Ezzor Mohammed Hassan. “Fear of What’s to Come: Deir Ezzor Tribes After ISIS,” Province has been outside of Syrian government control al-Jumhuriya (Syria), 17 April 2017. http://aljumhuriya.net/37772 since as early as 2012, although the Syrian military and Tribal revenge is what threatens the province the most if ISIS were to allied militias have held onto a strategic enclave near the withdraw, due to the fracturing of tribes between supporters of ISIS who provincial capital throughout the conflict. enjoyed material and social benefits and its opponents who lost hundreds of their sons to ISIS… The men and armed groups who withdrew from Deir Ezzor The two armed Syrian groups most likely to challenge after ISIS controlled the province in July 2014 have indicated they will seek ISIS for control over Deir Ezzor Province are the Syrian revenge and death for ISIS members and those who aided and abetted them, Army and its allies on the one hand, and the Syrian whether individuals or tribes… “The tribes of Deir Ezzor will not welcome the Democratic Forces (SDF) on the other. Neither would be regime or SDF forces. The advance of either of these will push these tribes to greeted as liberators, according to the first accompanying fight alongside ISIS, even if they oppose the group, as they are considered the excerpt, which claims “The tribes of Deir Ezzor will not least criminal of these groups. The entry of the regime carries with it fears of welcome the regime or SDF forces. The advance of either massacres while the SDF fears of forced displacement, as they did to Arabs in of these will push these tribes to fight alongside ISIS.” southern Hassakah and northern Raqqa.” The article, published in a Syrian news website called al- Jumhuriya, further notes the spike in violence that would follow an ISIS retreat: “Tribal revenge is what threatens “…The essence of the matter is that we want to get to the the province the most if ISIS were to withdraw, due to the fracturing of tribes between supporters of ISIS who Syrian border before the Americans do…” enjoyed material and social benefits and its opponents - A leader in Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces who lost hundreds of their sons to ISIS.” Local residents الحشد الشعبي ينقل معركته الى الحدود السورية :who fled Deir Ezzor following ISIS control in July 2014 Source “have indicated they will seek revenge and death for ISIS “Popular Mobilization Forces Take their Battle to the Syrian Border,” Fars members and those who aided and abetted them, whether News Agency, 29 April 2017. http://ar.farsnews.com/middle_east/ individuals or tribes.” news/13960209000288

Further tangling the situation are recent statements Karim al-Nuri, a leader in the Popular Mobilization Forces, told the Fars from leaders in Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) News correspondent: “The PMF’s battle will now move to the Syrian border to claiming that the Syrian government-allied PMF will seek liberate and secure border areas. After freeing al-Baaj and al-Qairouan on the to secure at least parts of the Iraqi border with Deir Ezzor border west of Mosul, we will have opened a full line toward Syria and will be Province. The second passage cites a statement made able to control ISIS’s main supply lines and encircle them in Mosul.” by PMF spokesman Karim al-Nuri to Iran’s Fars News الحشد الشعبي ينقل معركته الى الحدود السورية :Agency, in which he notes that after expelling ISIS from Source Hatra District south of Mosul, “The PMF’s battle will now “The Race to the Syrian Border: PMF Break American Balance,” al-Akhbar, 1 move to the Syrian border to liberate and secure border May 2017. http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/276542 areas… [after which] we will have opened a full line After PMF forces took control over Hatra (al-Hadher) SW of Mosul, there are toward Syria and will be able to control ISIS’s main supply indications that this is but a preface to another operation near the border… lines and encircle them in Mosul.” “The essence of the matter is that we want to get to the Syrian border before The third accompanying passage, from the Lebanese the Americans do,” a PMF leader told al-Akhbar. “The Americans want to take daily al-Akhbar, links the PMF’s intentions to “a race” advantage of the desert and the situation in Syria to build new military bases.” with Iraq-based US troops to secure the Iraq-Syria border, Although the Americans have sufficient influence along the 605-kilometer particularly the Albu Kamal-Al-Qaim crossing along the border, especially in the south near the tri-border area with Syria and Jordan Euphrates. According to one PMF leader quoted in the and north and northwest of Mosul, the central area has extremely important article: “The essence of the matter is that we want to get locations, such as the al-Qaim border crossing. The battle over this area may to the Syrian border before the Americans do.” End OE begin soon… “Any operation in the Nineveh Plains and west Anbar, whether by Watch Commentary (Winter) the Americans or the PMF, will be a race to the border,” a political source told al-Akhbar.

OE Watch | June 2017 11 MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFRICA Internal Disputes and the Future of ISIS OE Watch Commentary: The most discussed book at the March “…[ISIS] was so focused on popular support and 2017 Tunis International Book Fair was the memoir of Mohammed pleasing the residents of Raqqa and other places under Fahem– a former militant of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS). The book, titled I Was in Raqqa and written by a prominent its control that the punishment for attacking a local Tunisian journalist, is based on the voluntary testimony of Fahem, could be execution…” who was born in to Tunisian parents but moved to كيف تعيش الرقة تحت خالفة داعش؟ :at an early age. It is being translated into English and French and Source will likely be picked up by a major -language publisher for Abdelsalem Hershi. “How is Life in Raqqa under the ISIS distribution in key markets like Cairo, Baghdad and Beirut. Caliphate?” al-Mayadeen, 17 April 2017. https://goo.gl/gzbUh6 From the book we can understand that ISIS relies heavily on its The book’s main insight is about the relations between ISIS’s popular environment, which leads the group to deal with it in a Tunisian contingent and their comrades from Syria and Iraq. As particular fashion, including by allowing residents the choice of the first two accompanying passages from Arabic sources discuss, whether or not to participate in the groups battles: “What struck me the book notes that Tunisians stuck together and were practically during my time in Raqqa is that the state [ISIS] was not intent on “a state within a state,” often viewed with distrust and suspicion forcibly recruiting Raqqa’s young men”…. many of the muhajireen, by Syrian and Iraqi leaders as well as by the residents of Raqqa, like me, criticized and insulted the common people. ISIS also allowed ISIS’s purported Syrian capital. Tensions between the Tunisians and ISIS leaders were attributed to a doctrinal disagreement, pitting the common people (women) in areas under their control to show the Tunisian “Hazmiites” (followers of Saudi preacher Ahmed their eyes, which led some of the group’s fighters to declare takfir on al-Hazmi) against the Syrian and Iraqi “Binaliites” (followers of them. The group was so focused on popular support and pleasing Bahraini preacher Turki al-Binali). The disagreement between the the residents of Raqqa and other places under its control that the two groups centers on the limits of takfir, a basic pillar of modern punishment for attacking a local could be execution… Tunisians jihadism whereby other Muslims are branded as infidels kuffar( ) in ISIS were like a state-within-a-state, which angered many of the so they may be killed without violating the Islamic prohibition on Syrian and Iraqi leaders… the undeclared war on Tunisians by ISIS killing coreligionists. When the Tunisians arrived in Raqqa, they included constant surveillance and forced disappearances… ISIS realized that many of Raqqa’s residents – known in ISIS-speak as executed over 500 Tunisians at the Kashish Airbase… ISIS is divided the Muslim “common people” (the ‘awam) – were violating Shari’a into two factions. The Binaliites… which includes the group’s leaders precepts as defined by ISIS and were not fighting jihad. For the and those with power, and the Hazmiites… who deny the excuse of Hazmiites, this made them kuffar, while for the Binaliites minor ignorance and includes many of ISIS’s fighters… transgressions could be attributed to ignorance and be forgiven. Source: Nizar Bahloul. “Moi, Abou Zakaria, terroriste tunisien fuyant ISIS leaders did not compel local residents to fight on their side, de Raqqa (Me, Abou Zakaria, Tunisian terrorist escapee from and the Binaliite trend prevailed as ISIS solidified control over Raqqa),” Business News (Tunisia), 14 April 2017. http://www. Raqqa. In 2015, ISIS security members executed hundreds of businessnews.com.tn/moi-abou-zakaria-terroriste-tunisien-fuyant-de- Tunisian ISIS members, including one of its main Shari’a judges, raqqa,519,71602,3 for “overzealousness in takfir” after they branded ISIS leader Abu What bothered him most was the discrimination Mohammed and his Bakr al-Baghdadi as an infidel. colleagues experienced. Foreign fighters were not well regarded by The debate may seem esoteric, but it has important implications local residents and vice-versa, as Mohammed increasingly resented for the future of ISIS. In Raqqa at least, ISIS leadership prioritized Syrians who did not participate in Jihad while he and thousands of relations with local residents (‘awam) over relations with foreign others soldiers from across the globe had come to provide them with fighters muhajireen( ). ISIS is often portrayed as a detested a state ruled by Shari’a. This mutual disdain grew, especially since interloper in the communities it has ruled, but its appeals to local ISIS leadership clearly favored local residents and constantly sought residents illustrate the group’s focus on building popular support to curry their favor. from local communities. Indeed ISIS was able to establish a deep ما بعد داعش اإلرهابي: تكفير لكل المسلمين واستباحة دمائهم :Source presence in Syria by providing recourse to local residents who were Hassan al-Ayadi. “After ISIS: Takfir for all Muslims and Permission fed up with the impunity and corruption of armed gangs claiming to Shed their Blood,” al-Maghreb, 27 March 2017. https://goo. to be freedom fighters. At the same time, as a Tunisian journalist gl/0WqjnC argues in one of the country’s Arabic-language dailies in the third excerpt, the more extreme Hazmiite vision of ISIS may benefit The importance of this book lies in its hinting at the ideological from the group’s demise in Syria and Iraq. ISIS’s next iteration, the features of the new organization that might follow ISIS and establish a author believes, may tend toward greater extremism and “consider new model, one which would consider all the Sunni “common people” all the Sunni ‘common people’ as apostates whose blood can be as apostates whose blood can be spilled due to their refraining spilled due to their refraining from jihad. Such a group would be from jihad. Such a group would be led by foreigners who have lived led by foreigners who have lived through ISIS’s failure and decline. through ISIS’s failure and decline. The main reason for this decline The main reason for this decline would be regarded as the clemency would be regarded as the clemency and leniency by ISIS leaders and leniency by ISIS leaders toward local residents.” End OE toward local residents… Watch Commentary (Winter) OE Watch | June 2017 12 MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFRICA Saudi-UAE Friction in Yemen OE Watch Commentary: As the following passages from Arabic- “…Hadi has in this case targeted Abu Dhabi’s two closest allies in Aden…” language media illustrate, tensions السعودية تبلع الموسى اإلماراتي في حضرموت... إلى متى؟ :are on the rise between nominally allied Saudi- and Source UAE-backed factions in various parts of former South “ ‘Swallows the UAE Razor’ in Hadhramaut… For How Long?” Yemen. In mid-April, the UAE sponsored a gathering al-Akhbar, 28 April 2017. http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/276413 of influential figures in Hadhramaut, Yemen’s eastern Thus far, the Saudi response to the UAE’s “Hadhramaut Conference” has been oil-rich province that has always held strategic interest limited to words, with Riyadh’s allies speaking out against the conference. The for Saudi Arabia. The gathering ended with a call for situation is unlikely to remain this way if Abu Dhabi decides to implement its provincial autonomy, which Saudi Arabia strongly results. According to reports, Saudi Arabia has begun taking real though indirect opposes. As noted in the first accompanying excerpt moves in Hadhramaut in order to reclaim a presence in the province, especially from the Lebanese daily al-Akhbar, Saudi opposition given the UAE’s aim for greater influence in Yemen’s south. This expansion thus far “has been limited to words, with Riyadh’s allies includes moving into the main southern provinces, including Socotra, where speaking out against the conference.” Yet, the article some believe Abu Dhabi may eventually conduct a referendum for its residents to continues, “The situation is unlikely to remain this way join the Arab Emirates. Also al-Mahrah, which could become an area of conflict if Abu Dhabi decides to implement its results.” The with Oman were the UAE to set its sights on it. In addition, the UAE is working article further claims that the UAE is seeking to spread its influence on the strategically located Yemeni island to “hatch” an allied military force and gain the favor of residents with economic of Socotra and may also seek a presence in al-Mahrah, opportunities and investments in ports, airports and services… Yemen’s easternmost province along the border with قرارات هادي تفاجئ اليمنيين وتضع اإلمارات في مأزق :Source Oman. “Hadi’s Decrees Surprise Yemenis and Create a Quandary for the UAE,” al-Araby In the port city of Aden, friction between UAE- al-Jadid, 29 April 2017. https://goo.gl/34bq2n and Saudi-backed forces has been on the rise since Hours before issuing the decree, which has shaken Yemeni politics, Hadi met last February, when the two sides couldn’t agree on with his national security council in Riyadh. The meeting sent reassurances to who would guard Aden International Airport. In late the UAE by emphasizing its role as part of the Arab coalition in Yemen. While April, UAE-backed forces detained the head of Saudi- this was welcomed by the UAE’s official news agency, Hadi has in this case backed forces that were to take over airport security. targeted Abu Dhabi’s two closest allies in Aden… According to many analysts, Within days, the president of Yemen’s internationally the dismissal of Aden’s governor would itself not be a big deal for the UAE were recognized government Abd Rabbo Mansour Hadi dismissed several officials close to the UAE. As it not accompanied by the dismissal and prosecution of state minister Hani Ben noted in the second accompanying excerpt from the Brik. He is a Salafist considered by many to be the UAE’s key man in Yemen and widely read Qatari newspaper al-Araby al-Jadid, Hadi the most influential commander in the “Security Belt” forces, the largest among dismissed the UAE’s two top allies in Yemen: Minister the recently established forces in Aden and surroundings, which was created with of State Hani Ben Brik, a Salafist leader who wields support, financing and training from the UAE… Aden is militarily divided between great influence in the “Security Belt” forces established forces loyal to the governor, the security director and the UAE (most notably the by the UAE, and Aydarous al-Zubaydi, Aden’s governor “Security Belt”) on the one hand, and forces loyal to Hadi on the other (most and a prominent figure of the “Southern Movement” notably the “Presidential Security”)… Given all of this, Aden appears open to (for more on al-Zubaydi see: “Yemen’s Southern many possibilities, including for local authorities to reject the decrees issued by Powerbroker,” OE Watch, November 2015). President Hadi... Hadi is a close Saudi ally who spends most of his االمارات: بال حلفاء و اليمن فرصتها االخيرة :time in Riyadh due to security concerns in Aden, the Source purported temporary capital of his government. The Mona Safwan. “The UAE: Without Allies and Yemen its Last Chance,” al-Rai dismissals have pushed Aden into uncharted territory, al-Yaum, 1 May 2017. http://www.raialyoum.com/?p=667043 further increasing instability in the troubled port city. [The UAE’s] military plan in Yemen seems poised to lose the ideological battle UAE ambitions in Yemen are unsustainable, to the Islamic parties and movements that have been in Yemen for some time, if it according to a Yemeni analyst writing in the news continues to use the same method without a broader understanding of the Yemeni website al-Rai al-Yaum. In the third accompanying situation. The UAE’s single weak point in its Yemen war is that it is battling all passage, she argues that the UAE’s alliances in Yemen the different religious ideologies and their political movements and armed militias are temporary, “based on interests and buying loyalty with a variety of weapons but without an ideology. Its alliances have been only rather than an ideological alliance, as is the case with with non-religious factions, a temporary alliance based on interests and buying Saudi Arabia, Iran, and even Qatar.” Because of this, loyalty rather than an ideological alliance, as is the case with Saudi Arabia, Iran, the UAE can “be easily isolated by Saudi Arabia and and even Qatar… Losing in Yemen would be a major regional defeat for the UAE. Qatar.” Be this as it may, the ratcheting up of tensions Yemen is a chance to prove itself as a state with aspirations and capabilities in between Saudi and UAE allies in Yemen bodes poorly this regional conflict and in this important part of the conflict. It can however, be not just for the Saudi-UAE Yemen campaign but for the easily isolated by Saudi Arabia and Qatar, and in doing so lose its role and be two countries’ bilateral relations going forward. End weakened, hence Yemen is its last chance. OE Watch Commentary (Winter) OE Watch | June 2017 13 AFRICA “Terror Twins” Targeted South African Jewish Community, Others

OE Watch Commentary: South Africa’s Jewish community is on edge following recent revelations from a court indictment that twin brothers Brandon-Lee and Tony- Lee Thulsie, who were arrested in July 2016, had planned to attack several Jewish institutions. According to the accompanying article, Tony-Lee had telegram chats with the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) in August 2015 as well as several people whose identity is unknown to the state. During these communications he was instructed to kill Jews who fought in Israel and returned to South Africa; affluent Jews; cartoonist Jonathan Shapiro, known as Zapiro, who drew the Messenger of Allah cartoon; and Jewish investment banker Roy Topol. Additional targets included the King David High School, the US and Russian embassies, the UK High Commission, Jewish community events, an unidentified gay imam, and several others. “Cartoonist Jonathan Shapiro, known as Zapiro, was one of the intended targets of the The “Terror Twins,” as the duo have come to be known, Terror Twins,” Johann Swart (TEDxStellenbosch). Source: https://www.flickr.com/photos/tedxstellenbosch/7788849708/in/photolist-5kHpFR-mVU7q7-8jfMD6-cSgTEd-cSgThs-ithSLe-cSgSVm-dsVxJ, CC were apparently quite active on social media prior to their BY-NC-ND 2.0. arrest. According to the article, the internet search history of the 23 year-old brothers included “The Mujahideen Source: “South Africa: Jewish Community Will Remain Vigilant Following Poisons Handbook,” “How to Survive in the West – A Thulsie Twins Revelations – SAJBD,” News24Wire, 26 Apr 2017. http:// Mujahid [Fighter’s] Guide,” and “Make a Bomb in the www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/jewish-community-will-remain- Kitchen of Your Mom.” Their online activities, as described vigilant-following-thulsie-twins-revelations-sajbd-20170426 by an investigating officer, included discussing matters that could incriminate them. The pair apparently planned According to their charge sheet, the brothers were allegedly linked to the to carry out their attacks using firearms, explosives, and self-proclaimed Islamic State group and were allegedly planning to detonate possibly even poisons. explosives at a US embassy and “Jewish institutions” in South Africa.

Due to previous threats, the Jewish community was In August 2015 [Tony-Lee] became a participant in a series of Telegram chats with Abu Fidaa, an ISIS network, and other persons whose real already on what some describe as a lockdown. Even before identities are unknown to the State during which he was instructed to: the arrest of the brothers, the King David High School had begun enhancing its security. However, the latest disclosure - Attack the best targets involving ‘US/Brit[ish]/French interest in South regarding the Terror Twins’ target list has ratcheted up Africa’; tension even further. Jeffrey Katz, national chairperson - Kill Zapiro who drew the Messenger of Allah cartoon; for the South African Jewish Board of Deputies, said in - Kill Jews who fight in Israel and return to South Africa; response to the contents of the court indictment that the - Kill affluent Jews; and Jewish community is constantly vigilant and will continue - Kill gay imam, “as yet unidentified”. to be so. The organization also said it has confidence in South Africa’s law enforcement agencies, whose work Other targets included King David High School in Linksfield, Johannesburg, averted numerous attacks by two individuals linked to ISIS. the UK High Commission, the embassies of the USA and Russia, the First End OE Watch Commentary (Feldman) Secretary of French Mission, Jewish investment banker Roy Topol, SA Zionist Federation Telfed, state-owned arms manufacturer Denel, Jewish community events and foreign interests at airports. “According to their charge sheet, the According to the indictment, the twins’ internet search histories included brothers were allegedly linked to the downloading “The Mujahideen Poisons Handbook”, “How to survive in the self-proclaimed Islamic State group West – A Mujahid [Fighter’s] Guide”, “Muslim Gangs”, “Make a Bomb in the Kitchen of Your Mom”, and guides to making homemade explosives and and were allegedly planning to detonate silencers. explosives at a US embassy and ‘Jewish institutions’ in South Africa.”

OE Watch | June 2017 14 AFRICA Post-Apartheid Pain: South Africans Question Country’s Direction OE Watch Commentary: This wasn’t how it was supposed to be. People knew there would “In an unprecedented move, three former presidents and a deputy be struggles post-apartheid, but there was hope president will come together for the country to discuss the ‘deep that the fractured society would eventually unite and prosper. However, as the accompanying and pervasive national general crisis’ facing South Africa.” article reports, a mood of despair and foreboding permeates the country. It is not difficult to see the reasons: high unemployment, rampant crime, widespread poverty, a stagnant economy, ongoing racial divisions, and a growing disparity between rich and poor. However, perhaps most disconcerting to the people has been the failure of their government, resulting in what has been described as a toxic political environment.

This is the context in which three former presidents and several respected leaders, including Desmond Tutu, are coming together to provide a non- partisan platform for South Africans of all races to address the issues facing the country. Notably absent from the list of prominent participants is the country’s current president, Jacob Zuma, against whom much of the populace’s ire is directed. Indeed one of the scheduled One of many protests against President Zuma in South Africa. topics of discussion is a review of the powers of the president. This is in Source: UIhsaan Haffejee/GroundUp, http://www.groundup.org.za/imagegallery/photo/477/, CC BY-ND 4.0. response to the parliament failing to uphold the country’s constitution when it did not hold Zuma accountable for not reimbursing the Source: “South Africa: Former Presidents Unite to Deal With government for money it spent on his private residence, one of the many Crisis Facing SA,” AllAfrica.com (News24Wire), 2 May 2017. grievances against Zuma. While a CEO of former President Mbeki’s http://allafrica.com/stories/201705030139.html foundation said the former presidents do not aim to “govern from the grave,” former President F.W. de Klerk’s foundation stated that the goal of In an unprecedented move, three former presidents and a deputy the mobilization is to remove Zuma from office. president, will come together for the country to discuss the “deep and pervasive national general crisis” facing South Africa. The National Foundations Dialogue Initiative Chairperson, Nomhle Canca, after listing the many problems the country faces, said it is time She [National Foundations Dialogue Initiative Chairperson to assess the country’s journey since CODESA, the Convention for a Nomhle Canca] said that since the Convention for Democratic Democratic South Africa that resulted in the settlement to end apartheid. South Africa - Codesa - which resulted in a negotiated settlement After acknowledging past challenges and missed opportunities, she to end apartheid - it was now time for the country to “asses the turned to the present by asking what the country needs to do now to right road traversed so far”. itself. “The national dialogue will take the form of an Imbizo in traditional society where the people come together to talk about South Africa’s struggle to find its way has implications far beyond its matters of concern or Town hall engagements, in the American borders. As the accompanying article discusses, there is concern that context,” Canca said. the country’s stature is diminishing across the continent. South Africa is often expected to provide leadership for other African nations, but mired CEO of the Thabo Mbeki foundation Max Boqwana said the in multiple crises, its voice has been somewhat muted. Thus, not just national dialogue is not an attempt by former presidents to “govern from the grave”. He said the Mbeki foundation joined South Africa but all of Africa is hoping that the convening of the former forces with others, as they were particularly concerned that the presidents along with other notable people can help set the country on a stature of the country across the continent was diminishing course to fulfilling the post-apartheid aspirations of so many. End OE Watch Commentary (Feldman)

OE Watch | June 2017 15 AFRICA Somalia: Concern Over AMISOM’s Future OE Watch Commentary: It has been 10 years “Despite its gains, AMISOM, together with the since the African Union Mission in Somalia 20,000-strong Somali National Army, has not been able to vanquish (AMISOM) tried to establish peace in a country at war with itself. To be sure, there have been al-Shabaab’s forces. Inadequate military hardware and dependence gains, but AMISOM along with the Somali on international donors have largely constrained the mission from National Army have not been able to defeat proactive interventions to free regions from the group. the forces, including the radical Islamist group ” al-Shabaab, that wreak havoc on the nation. As the first accompanying article relates, with the Third London Conference on Somalia underway, there is concern, including from neighboring Kenya, that if AMISOM withdraws before Somalia is fully capable of dealing with al-Shabaab on its own, a security vacuum could be created which would threaten regional stability.

The present plan, as detailed in the second article, is for AMISOM to start pulling back its forces beginning in 2018. The African Union is arguing for a final push against al-Shabaab before then, in order to dislodge the militants from some of their strongholds in the Jubba Valley, Hiran region, and northeast coastline. Left unmentioned in these articles is whether there will also be an increased effort to root out al-Shabaab from areas such as Mogadishu where their presence, though Without continued AMISOM support such as the soldiers pictured here on patrol in the town of Qoryooley, it is doubtful that Somalia will be able to defeat al-Shabaab. greatly diminished, is still made known by periodic and Source: AMISOM Public Information through Wikimedia Commons, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:African_Union_soldiers,_as_part_of_the_ Ugandan_contingent_of_AMISOM,_conduct_a_patrol_on_April_29_through_the_town_of_Qoryooley,_Somalia,_just_over_(13894467038).jpg, Originated devastating car bomb blasts. Flickr, https://www.flickr.com/photos/au_unistphotostream/13894467038/, CCO 1.0 Universal, Public Domain.

There are two important issues highlighted in the Source: “Uhuru alarms premature AMISOM troops withdrawal,” Shabelle News articles. First, there have been other conferences (Somalia), 10 May 2017. http://www.shabellenews.com/2017/05/uhuru-concerned-by- regarding Somalia and funding, and one of the main premature-focus-on-amisom-troops-exit/ reasons for the Somali military’s inability to defeat On the eve of the Third London Conference on Somalia, President Uhuru Kenyatta al-Shabaab has been previous inadequate support insists that it would be catastrophic for the African Union Mission in Somalia to exit from the international donor community coming before realizing the extermination of the al-Shabaab terror group. out of these events. Perhaps the most striking problem regarding this lack of monetary support for “We can hurry to leave but what happens when an inadequately prepared Somali the Somali military has been the large number of force is left to its own devices? A vacuum is left and the root of the problem will re- soldiers who have defected to al-Shabaab. Second, emerge.” as the second article notes, al-Shabaab has taken advantage of the country’s famine with a publicity Source: “Final Push for Peace in Somalia,” Institute for Security Studies (South campaign highlighting its provision of food to Africa), 10 May 2017. https://issafrica.org/iss-today/final-push-for-peace-in-somalia people in areas under its control. If the international community wants to keep al-Shabaab out, it will Despite global efforts to combat terrorism in Somalia, al-Shabaab’s attacks continue need to make long term and substantial humanitarian and the group still controls large parts of the country. aid commitments. However, past misuse of foreign [Al-Shabaab’s] publicity campaign to highlight how it is providing food in areas aid by previous Somali governments has resulted under its jurisdiction – despite having blocked aid in the past – is winning over some of in international donors being wary of pledging Somalia’s starving people. additional funds. Despite its gains, AMISOM, together with the 20,000-strong Somali National Army, has not been able to vanquish al-Shabaab’s forces. Inadequate military hardware Thus, while many recognize the necessity to and dependence on international donors have largely constrained the mission from defeat al-Shabaab not just for Somalia’s sake but for proactive interventions to free regions from the group. Al-Shabaab has between 7 000 regional stability, international donors are cautious and 9 000 forces. and in many instances constrained by their own economic problems. It will be interesting to see More likely, there will remain a need for international support to Somalia’s forces whether the Third London Conference on Somalia beyond 2020 – the year AMISOM’s withdrawal is expected to be complete. can help to finally put the country on a path towards The conference must tackle the other issues that make Somalians vulnerable to a full and lasting peace, or if a Fourth London radicalization and extremism – including the looming famine caused by the drought Conference will be necessary. End OE Watch that has affected over half the population. Commentary (Feldman) OE Watch | June 2017 16 AFRICA Is the African Union Ignoring Early Warnings of Potential Conflict? OE Watch Commentary: The Continental Early Warning System (CEWS), created by the Source: “Denialism plagues Africa’s early Peace and Security Council (PSC) of the African Union (AU), is tasked with sounding the warning system,” Institute for Security Studies alarm regarding potential conflicts on the continent. The CEWS uses open sources such as (South Africa), 19 Apr 2017. https://issafrica. newspapers and scholarly writings to publish situation reports and make recommendations org/pscreport/on-the-agenda/denialism- based on its findings. However, as the accompanying article reports, these are often plagues-africas-early-warning-system downplayed or ignored, resulting in possible missed opportunities to avert conflict. However, the main challenge is the negative There are several reasons why these warnings do not always reach the level of urgency they reaction by some member states when situations possibly should, with the biggest one being simple denial. As the accompanying article details, in their countries are the subject of early countries on the receiving end of the warning often react negatively to the news of trouble warning. The PSC, following its meeting on brewing within their borders, basically denying there are problems of the magnitude described 21 March 2017, expressed ‘concern over the by the CEWS. As a result, the PSC does not discuss certain conflicts even though a CEWS continued denials of objective/credible early report may have raised significant concerns. Zimbabwe is a prime example of this situation. warning signals of looming crisis, thereby Despite marked political instability in the country, it has remained off the PSC’s agenda. undermining the conflict prevention capacity of the council’…It is also addressed in the recent The PSC has recognized this problem of denying objective and credible signals that possibly AU Master Roadmap Practical Steps to Silence serve as harbingers of significant problems such as violent conflict. Indeed, the entire AU has the Guns in Africa by 2020, which vows to taken note, with one of its major publications vowing to expose those who deny the presence of ‘expose those who deny brewing crises’. developing crises. However, it is still too early to say whether or not the AU in general and the The issue of denialism is strongly linked to the PSC in particular will be able to overcome the forces seeking to keep emergent crises hidden. lack of political will – sometimes within the PSC – to address crises. In this regard, the master There is another aspect of this early warning system that is worth discussing. Based on roadmap calls for ‘the establishment of clear the current mandate, CEWS has to focus on directly preventing conflict. Thus, it looks only channels of communications on early warning at possible events that could trigger conflict, but not at the larger structural issues that often reports to the PSC’. In the recent past, some serve as the root causes of conflict. This means that issues such as corruption, marked income member states have even lobbied their allies inequality, and interethnic tension are generally not included as part of an issued warning within the PSC to avoid being placed on the because they might not be potential proximate causes of a conflict. As the article points out, agenda, despite alerts by the CEWS. this tendency to only focus on short term factors is fueled, once again, by AU member states’ This tendency to look at short term triggers is reluctance to have their structural problems addressed externally. Not surprisingly it makes again fuelled by the reluctance of member states for a weak warning system when so many are unwilling to hear the alarm or to even allow to see their structural problems addressed by the alarm system to be sounded by all appropriate triggers. End OE Watch Commentary an external actor, including the AU. (Feldman) Africa’s Brain Drain: Its Impacts on Security and Stability By Robert Feldman Africa is bleeding. Much of its lifeblood, composed of well-educated people who could help tackle its toughest problems, is flowing away. This hemorrhaging of individuals with extensive training constitutes Africa’s brain drain. African militaries are not immune to the problem. From the upper echelons of the services where strategic decisions are made, to the lower echelons where technical equipment must be maintained, the lack of qualified individuals is being felt. Loss of educated individuals on the civilian side also affects military capabilities. Fewer businesspersons generate taxable revenue, fewer engineers design roads and other critical infrastructure, and perhaps most damning of all, fewer educated people are available to serve in government jobs and provide, among other functions, important civilian oversight of the armed services. However, there are certain offsets that must be considered. As an example, an African military pilot who takes a position in Europe might send remittances back home. The brain drain also possibly serves as a safety valve, allowing disgruntled individuals who are unable to find positions matching their educational achievements in their home countries to leave and find employment elsewhere. Military Review, November-December 2012 https://community.apan.org/wg/tradoc-g2/fmso/

OE Watch | June 2017 17 AFRICA South Sudan: Fragmenting Opposition Diminishes Chances for Peace OE Watch Commentary: Perhaps in an effort to simplify the conflict in South Sudan, reporting often describes the situation in terms of a civil war with one side being the government and the other the opposition. However, what is missing from this overly brief explanation is that the opposition is not a single unified force. As the accompanying article relates, there are multiple rebel groups or militias – at last count six but probably more – fighting President Salva Kiir’s government. Unfortunately as the number of opposing groups increases, the chances for a comprehensive peace decreases. Even obtaining a lasting ceasefire has proven elusive as there are so many competing interests among the various parties.

The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), an eight-nation east African trading bloc that includes South Sudan, only recognizes the largest rebel group, the Sudan People’s Liberation Army - in Opposition (SPLA-iO), led by Riek Machar who was Kiir’s vice president until the two of them had a major falling out in 2013. Such an approach by IGAD misses other groups such as the National Salvation Front (NSF), formed in March 2017 by the former deputy head of logistics of the South Sudanese military (SPLA), Thomas Cirillo Swaka. As the accompanying article reports, Swaka accused Kiir, who is ethnically Dinka, of turning the SPLA into an exclusively Dinka tribal army. Complicating the chart of which rebel group is which, shortly after Swaka founded the NSF, it joined forces with an older group, the South Sudan Democratic Front (SSDF).

Swaka was not the only disgruntled government official to leave and form Salva Kiir Mayardit, President of the Government of Southern Sudan that speaks to news reporters outside the Security Council a rebel organization. The former Minister of Agriculture, Lam Akol, founded chamber at United Nations Headquarters in New York, United States of America. 2009. the National Democratic Movement. Rounding out the six known groups are Source: By Photo Credit: Jenny Rockett ([email protected]), https://commons.wikimedia.org/ wiki/File%3ASalva_Kiir_Mayardit.jpg [GFDL (http://www.gnu.org/copyleft/fdl.html) or CC BY-SA 3.0 (http:// the People’s Democratic Movement, the South Sudan National Movement for creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0)], via Wikimedia Commons Change, and the Former Political Detainees. The six groups are fighting over several different issues “South Sudan’s protracted political crisis has increased in including land distribution, local political grievances, complexity as the main actors fragment into factions or form new and the number of states into which the country should be divided. Abusive security responses by alliances and the dynamics of the conflict change.” government forces aggravate the situation, driving locals to support the rebels. Perhaps the only unifying Source: “South Sudan crisis deepens as main rebel groups fragment and realign,” The factor among these opposition factions is their lack of Conversation (South Africa), 1 May 2017. https://theconversation.com/south-sudan- confidence in Kiir’s ability to successfully deal with crisis-deepens-as-main-rebel-groups-fragment-and-realign-76240 the country’s ongoing conflict. South Sudan’s protracted political crisis has increased in complexity as the main The driving force behind many of the country’s actors fragment into factions or form new alliances and the dynamics of the conflict problems can be traced to interethnic rivalry, a change. This means that the search for lasting peace will have many more players condition which existed before the country gained around the table. independence from Sudan. However, many of the The number of rebel groups and local militias continues to rise, and will probably disparate groups, including the Dinka who comprise continue to do so. Six is the number often cited but this could easily be off the mark. the majority of the present government, set aside Certainly it does not include numerous local factions. their differences in order to battle their common The SPLA-iO is the biggest and somewhat multi-ethnic opposition group… But foe. Independence was won, but the steep price has SPLA-iO has recently lost members who defected to another group while gaining been a violent inability to find unity. As the article new ones in the former Central Equatoria regions. It probably remains the main relates, the country is going in the opposite direction, opposition group but its strength is unclear. becoming more fragmented, and adding even more While there is an increasing and diverse opposition to Kiir, these groups lack a instability to an already unstable country. End OE shared agenda and common approach. There is no group that promises a unified Watch Commentary (Feldman) future for South Sudan. That ultimately undermines their collective abilities to confront Kiir’s consolidation of power.

OE Watch | May 2017 18 AFRICA Malaria Fights Back: Africa’s Problem of Drug and Pesticide Resistance OE Watch Commentary: In the “The main fear is that drug resistance in Africa will trigger the same intense war against malaria that rages across parts of Africa, victory against this transmission patterns that have been seen in South East Asia.” disease has once again become more elusive. As the accompanying article relates, both the microbes that cause the disease and the mosquitoes that transmit it have changed in response to the measures used against them. The problem with the microbes, which are parasitic protozoans, is their development of resistance against certain drugs. This issue of drug resistant strains of malaria has been around almost since the first antimalarial drug was developed, and the solution has been to develop new medications and/or use certain ones in combination. However what is particularly worrisome is that the first case of resistance to the latest drug regimen, known as artemisinin- based combination therapy, appeared in Africa, specifically Equatorial Guinea, just over two months ago. The female Anopheles mosquito, the vector for malaria, has adapted to some of the measures designed to eliminate it. Three more countries were added to Source: James Gathany, CDC, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Anopheles_albimanus_mosquito.jpg, Public Domain. the tally shortly thereafter. Many now fear that Africa will follow the path of Southeast Asia which has been battling Source: “Africa’s anti-malaria efforts face a new hurdle with these same drug resistant strains of malaria for nearly a decade. - drug and insecticide resistance,” The Conversation (South Africa), 20 April 2017. https://theconversation. Just as the malaria parasite has evolved to resist the chemicals designed to com/africas-anti-malaria-efforts-face-a-new-hurdle-drug- combat it, so have the mosquitoes that carry the pathogen evolved to resist the and-insecticide-resistance-76047 chemicals designed to combat them. Interestingly, as the accompanying article notes, another modification has been the mosquitoes’ biting behavior. Prior to The main fear is that drug resistance in Africa will the introduction of pesticide impregnated bed netting, only 5% of mosquito bites trigger the same intense transmission patterns that occurred between 6:00 PM and 9:00 PM. However, with the widespread use of have been seen in South East Asia. The region has been bednets, the number of bites during this time right before many people go to battling drug resistance since 2007. bed increased to 15%. Additionally, mosquitoes have begun avoiding resting on insecticide treated surfaces inside houses. Instead, they bite and then leave the Firstly, mosquitoes have adopted survival tactics, premises. changing their human biting behavior and developing resistance to insecticides such as DDT and pyrethroid. The article points out another challenge: global warming. As the temperature Before the widespread use of treated bednets, only 5% increases, certain parts of Africa that were previously too cold for mosquitoes of mosquitoes were biting humans between 6pm and now become hospitable. Spreading the range of mosquitoes means spreading the 9pm before people went to bed. Since bednets have been range of mosquito-borne infections, such as malaria. introduced, up to 15% of mosquitoes bite people before they go to bed, increasing the risk of infection. The way forward includes several approaches. These entail new antimalarial drugs, increased disease surveillance, improved management of pests through The second challenge is climate change which has methods such as better drainage management that eliminates standing pools of resulted in mosquitoes breeding faster and the disease, water, and changes in housing architecture to better prevent mosquitoes from in turn, spreading faster. Malaria is now present in areas entering. A highly effective vaccine against malaria would also be most welcome, that were previously not marked as transmission zones. but until then, the war against malaria will continue, with both sides struggling to gain an advantage over the other. End OE Watch Commentary (Feldman)

OE Watch | June 2017 19 AFRICA Nigerian Security Challenges Interwoven with New Boko Haram Threats OE Watch Commentary: According to the excerpted article in Nigerian media outlet Vanguard dated 12 April, Nigerian security forces “The group had perfected plans to attack the have broken up a Boko Haram cell that was targeting the US and British UK and American Embassies and other western embassies in Nigeria. The Boko Haram cell that was implicated is a faction loyal to the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) known as the ISIS West interests in Abuja.” Africa Province. This attack plot suggests that ISIS is seeking to activate its African affiliates to increase its attacks on Western targets, something the group has been doing as it faces pressure in Iraq and Syria.

Yet, while this ISIS West Africa Province attack plot in Nigeria carried the headlines, the article also recounts other important security forces operations in recent weeks, which reflect the diverse nature of local and international security threats in Nigeria. For example, the security forces also broke up a cell in southern Nigeria’s Edo State. This cell was reportedly connected to Ansaru, which is affiliated to al-Qaeda and has carried out several kidnappings-of-foreigners in Nigeria from 2011 to 2014 but has otherwise been operationally quiet since 2014. The security forces also uncovered a cell that was involved in selling counterfeit certificates to foreigners that “proved” non-Nigerian West Africans were indigenes of Nigerian tribal or ethnic groups. Foreigners could use these certificates to obtain benefits to Nigerian academic institutions. This criminality cannot be fully separated from Boko Haram. According to the article, the counterfeit recipients included Boko Haram members, which was discovered when the security forces reportedly found a Guinean Boko Haram member with such documentation.

Separately, the article reports that the security forces arrested the governor of Benue State for his lack of cooperation after loads of arms were discovered in his home. Benue State is also where the ISIS West Africa Province cell that had been planning the US embassy attacks was based and is also the site of increasing ethnic clashes between Muslim Fulani herders and Christian indigenous sedentary farmers. End OE Watch Commentary (Zenn) “Boko Haram in Lake Chad Region”, Zeogludon. Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3ABoko_Haram_in_Lake_Chad_Region.png, Public Domain. Source: “How DSS foiled ISIS-linked Boko Haram attack on U.S, UK embassies” Vanguard, 12 April 2017. http://www.vanguardngr.com/2017/04/dss-foiled-isis-linked-boko-haram-attack-u-s-uk-embassies/

The [Nigerian] Department of State Services (DSS) wishes to inform the public about its continued effort in ensuring that the activities of Boko Haram insurgents, kidnappers and other criminal elements are drastically reduced or decimated. To this effect, their capabilities are daily being downgraded. Between 25th and 26th March, 2017, the Service busted a ring of ISIS linked Boko Haram members based in Benue State and Abuja. The group had perfected plans to attack the UK and American Embassies and other western interests in Abuja. In the month of April, two suspected Ansaru kingpins, Ahmed MOMOH and Al-amin Mohammed JAMIN were arrested on 4th April, 2017 at Igarra, Akoko Edo LGA, Edo State. The duo were confirmed associates of Abu UWAIS, a main Ansaru kingpin terrorizing residents in Kogi and Edo States. While these terrorists are already undergoing detailed investigations, the Service stepped up its efforts at stamping out the menace of kidnapping. It has also become instructive to let the public note that the Service has uncovered a racketeering network involved in the issuance of Certificates/Letters of indigeneship to persons from neighbouring African countries. The Boko Haram terrorist group has become part of this network and uses it to buoy its membership in Nigeria. A particular case was the arrest on 10th April at Damaturu, Yobe State of JALO, a Jos resident, Guinean and Boko Haram suspect. The case of former Governor of Benue State, Gabriel SUSWAM, is typical. The Service has continued to hold him in line with the dictates of the law – more so that he has not cooperated on the issues concerning the recovery of large cache of arms at his facilities. These successes have been achieved following the cooperation of well-meaning Nigerians who have volunteered credible intelligence.

OE Watch | June 2017 20 LATIN AMERICA Mexican Gas Smuggling

OE Watch Commentary: According to the accompanying source, four Source: Editors, “El ‘Triángulo Rojo’, el lugar de México soldiers and at least six civilians were killed in clashes between Mexican en donde el robo de gasolina es un jugoso negocio (The authorities and huachicoleros [popular name given to gasoline thieves/ ‘Red Triangle’, the place in Mexico where the theft of smugglers, which may translate roughly to ‘gasaholers’] in an area Mexicans gasoline is a lucrative business),” El Diario and EFE, 8 are referring to as the Red Triangle. The Red Triangle comprises the May 2017. http://www.msn.com/es-us/noticias/otras/el- municipios [counties] of Quecholac, Acatzingo and Acajete, in Puebla State. %E2%80%9Ctri%C3%A1ngulo-rojo%E2%80%9D-el-lugar- Federal Highway 150D runs between Mexico City and the port of Veracruz de-m%C3%A9xico-en-donde-el-robo-de-gasolina-es-un- to the southeast and passes through all three municipios. Apparently a jugoso-negocio/ar-BBAQjoJ?srcref=rss major gasoline pipeline goes through the triangle as well. The violence In early November, ‘premium’ gasoline could be found for occurred close to the town of Palmarito Tochiapan in Quecholac. five pesos (0.26 dollars) per liter, and now it is at seven pesos As their central economic activity, the huachicoleros steal gasoline from (0.36 dollars), 61.5% below the price of this kind of fuel at the the pipeline and resell it. They have gained quite a bit of popular support service stations. One has to travel some to get to the place-- within the Red Triangle such that efforts by Mexican federal authorities which changes--some 260 kilometers. ‘In spite of the distance, to thwart the activity are being met by organized physical resistance from it is worth it,’ considering that at times one buys ‘as much as within the communities. 100 liters’, he [an anonymous source] indicated.…So much is the acceptance of this practice in the communities of the According to the source, the theft, smuggling and resale of gasoline (along region that it has become reflected in the popular culture. An with some corruption or complacency of local political and law enforcement example of this are the corridos [songs] such as ‘Del Triangulo authorities) has birthed a minor cultural phenomenon featuring images, Rojo’ by the group Nato y los Huachix, or the song ‘La cumbia songs, souvenirs and the like, all extolling the huachicolero. The source del huachicol’ by Tamara Alcántara….Likewise, last year points out that the federal government has sent as many as 2,000 soldiers to an image of ‘Child Saint Huachicolero’ was popularized -- a the area to stop the practice. End OE Watch Commentary (Demarest) figure of the boy Jesus with a gasoline hose that was criticized by Victor Sánchez, Archbishop of Puebla, who said it was a ‘distortion of devotion’.…According to figures from Mexican “Robbery of fuel has become a Petroleum (Pemex), the theft of hydrocarbons in Puebla, one business in which communities of the of the states in which this crime has hit with the most force, increased in 2015 some 134% with respect to the previous region are immersed.” year.…Public security expert Guillermo Alberto Hidalgo indicated to the EFE [news agency] that the robbery of fuel has been going on for years and ‘was left to grow in an irresponsible manner’ until it has become a business in which communities of the region are immersed.…Governor of Puebla José Antonio Gali said today that the presence of the Army in the region will be reinforced with the arrival of 2,000 soldiers.

Municipio of Quecholac. Source: De Battroid - own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index. Location of Municipio of Quecholac in Puebla State. Source: Wikipedia, php?curid=58531522 https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/2/25/Mexico_Puebla_Quecholac_location_map. svg/240px-Mexico_Puebla_Quecholac_location_map.svg.png, Public Domain

OE Watch | June 2017 21 LATIN AMERICA Measuring Mexican Gas Theft OE Watch Commentary: The accompanying passages from Mexican sources provide insight into the growing Mexican “...minors were obligated to work for criminal groups that phenomenon of gas theft. The passages discuss various features are dedicated to the ‘milking’ of the PEMEX [Mexican of the problem including the use of minors, and how drug- cartels use gas theft as a way to diversify their income and resist Petroleum Corporation] pipelines.” law enforcement pressure from the Mexican government. Source: José Antonio Torres, “El robo de combustibles, un delito más lucrativo que las drogas en México (Fuel theft, a crime more lucrative The first passage gives us an overall context of the growing scale than drugs),” Agencia EFE, 5 May 2017. http://www.efe.com/efe/ of the problem. It notes that fuel smuggling is a diversification america/mexico/el-robo-de-combustibles-un-delito-mas-lucrativo-que- effort on the part of the drug cartels that is more lucrative than las-drogas-en-mexico/50000545-3257433 drug-trafficking at some times and some places. While it is not the main business of a drug cartel, it adds to the cartels’ capacity …Senator Roberto Gil Zuarth, of the conservative National Action to fight back against the Mexican authorities. Party (PAN), said to EFE in considering the gravity of the criminal activity, that it already represented ‘the second most important income The second source reports on an angle of concern brought up in source for organized crime’ in Mexico.…The losses now reach 97,000 the Mexican Congress -- that the size of the consequences of fuel million pesos (some 5.086 billion dollars) during the government of theft can be poignantly measured by the number and location of President Enrique Peña Nieto, begun in December of 2012… underage perpetrators that are arrested. These underage recruits are arrested “for the crime of hydrocarbon theft and for being involved in the robbery of vehicles.” The problem involves 26 Mexican states as well as the federal capital district, probably every state in which there is a Mexican Petroleum Corporation (PEMEX) pipeline. Apparently most of the arrests of underage perpetrators are made because the minors “were obligated to work for criminal groups that are dedicated to the ‘milking’ of the PEMEX pipelines.”

The third source is a three-minute video produced by the editors of Contralínea, which describes itself as an organization dedicated to investigative journalism. The video cites a study done by José Ignacio Montero Vieira of the Spanish Strategic Studies Institute (IEEE) which includes in its sources PEMEX and the Economist. According to the sources, fuel theft Mexican gas station , operated by PEMEX. represents an effort by the cartels to diversify their Source: Wikimedia, zzCC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=1435484 income in order to better resist law enforcement pressures from the Mexican federal government. End OE “The losses now reach 97,000 million pesos (some Watch Commentary (Demarest) 5.086 billion dollars.”

Source: Gustavo Castillo García, “De 2010 a 2016, se ha detenido Source: Editors and Jose Reyes as presenter, “Video: El robo a 642 menores por robo de hidrocarburos (From 2010 to 2016, 642 de combustible, bajo control de 5 cárteles (Video: Fuel theft Minors Have Been Arrested for Theft of Hydrocarbons),” Periódico under the control of five cartels),”Contralínea , 11 April La Jornada, 10 May 2017. http://www.jornada.unam.mx/2017/05/10/ 2017. http://www.contralinea.com.mx/archivo-revista/index. politica/004n1pol php/2017/04/11/video-el-robo-de-combustible-bajo-control-de- 5-carteles/ Between 2010 and 2016 a total of 642 minors have been arrested and subjected to criminal prosecution for the crime of hydrocarbon theft In Mexico the theft of fuel is controlled by five organized crime and for being involved in the robbery of vehicles, according to reports cartels….In his [José Montero] study of the robbery of fuel in of the National Security Commission….Authorities have warned that the the context of drug trafficking, this expert details that the Zetas, minors were obligated to work for criminal groups that are dedicated Gulf Cartel, Knights Templar, Sinaloa Cartel and the New to the ‘milking’ of the PEMEX pipelines, and the Federal Police report Generation Jalisco Cartel control the robbery of fuel in the that between 2010 and 2016, the entities in which the greatest number of country complicit with employees of PEMEX in accordance with minors were arrested transporting stolen fuel were Tamaulipas, with 70; the zone of influence of each criminal organization. Michoacán, 55; Nuevo León, 54; Guerrero, 48; Zacatecas, 31; Jalisco, 13; Guanajuato, 14, and Coahuila, 11….

OE Watch | June 2017 22 LATIN AMERICA On the Next Cuban President OE Watch Commentary: Mariela Source: Editors, “Mariela Castro: Puede Castro, daughter of Cuban President haber ‘sorpresas’ en relevo político de Cuba Raul Castro, recently threw some (Mariela Castro: There could be ‘surprises’ in uncertainty into conversations about who Cuba’s political leadership change),” Diario will replace Raul Castro as president Las Americas, 3 May 2017. http://www. when she stated that there could be diariolasamericas.com/america-latina/mariela- surprises and that everyone in Cuba was castro-puede-haber-sorpresas-relevo-politico- a candidate. Mariela also discounted cuba-n4121159 the idea that she herself might be in the Mariela Castro, daughter of Cuban chief running. According to the editors of executive Raúl Castro, said this Wednesday the accompanying Spanish-language that there could still be “surprises” in the reference, it is still likely to be an political change of guard that is being institutional transition to the current organized in Cuba for next year, when her Vice President, Miguel Díaz-Canel. father will leave the presidency of the island, The editors also point out that current at the same time she roundly denied that president, Raúl Castro, will likely stay she aspires to that position. For Mariela, on as head of the Cuban Communist “the entire people of Cuba is in candidacy, Party, which wields overall power in men and women of the people of Cuba are the country. In other words, they do not candidates” facing the political transition expect to see abrupt changes in leadership process that must be begin by the end of or policy. End OE Watch Commentary this year when municipal elections are (Demarest) Cuban first Vice President Miguel Diaz Canel (2015). Source: Wikipedia, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3ADiaz-canel.jpg, Public Domain2.5 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.5)] expected, as a step prior to the designation of a new president.…In the absence of an official posture, the prognostics point to an institutionalized change and the designation of 56-year old Miguel Díaz-Canel as the next “There could be Cuban chief executive, named Vice President ‘surprises’…” of the government in 2013 by Raúl himself.… Since he assumed [the presidency] the littler of the Castros assured that he would only occupy the position for two terms, of five years each, although he did foresee staying until 2021 as the head of the Communist Party, the only formation that controls the structures of power in the country. Mariela Castro Espin. Source: By Montrealais (Own work) via Wikimedia Commons, https://commons. wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3AMariela_Castro.jpg, CC BY-SA 2.5 (http://creativecommons. org/licenses/by-sa/2.5)]

Geoff Demarest’s Winning Irregular War is about a broader set of conflicts than just ‘insurgency.’ In its 144 sections, Geoff Demarest raises new and overlooked concepts related to modern conflict in a provocative manner designed to stir up debate and critical thinking. As Geoff Demarest puts it: “I hope that some of the ideas in it will be contagious.”

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OE Watch | June 2017 23 LATIN AMERICA About Bolivarian Motorcycle Colectivos OE Watch Commentary: OE Watch “The Movimiento Revolucionario de Liberación Carapaica … is introduced the phenomenon of Venezuela’s government-sponsored armed motorcycle considered the most dangerous of all of them.” gangs (called colectivos) in a June 2014 entry titled “Motomilicias.” The accompanying Source: María Celsa Rodríguez, “Los Colectivos Bolivarianos: verdaderos escuadrones de passages from Spanish-language sources provide la muerte (The Bolivarian Colectivos: true death squads),” Hacer Latin American News, 21 April 2017. http://www.hacer.org/latam/venezuela-los-colectivos-bolivarianos-verdaderos- significant insight into these formations. escuadrones-de-la-muerte-por-maria-celsa-rodriguez/ The first accompanying passage, from Hacer The Bolivarian colectivos are dangerous armed entities directed and financed by the Latin American News demonstrates a decidedly Venezuelan dictatorship and Cuban intelligence that, mounted on their motorcycles, negative tone toward the colectivos and their ‘patrol’ the cities of Venezuela with impunity, robbing and killing opponents as they political employers. Nevertheless, the author pass… Financed by the Intergovernmental Fund for Decentralization and provided with provides some history on the formation as well weapons that Fidel Castro sent to them by boat from Cuba, the best known circle and as the names of some of the more established one of the most powerful and violent is the one from ‘La Piedrita’ which was born in 1985 of these hybrid units. The term colectivo can at the hands of Carlos Ramirez and Valentín Santana. The following appeared after the apply to a variety of pro-government community political support and enforcement organizations Caracazo in 1989: ‘Ali Primera de Monte Piedad’, ‘Los Tupamaros’, ‘Las Comunas’, ‘Las in Venezuela, but the term now prominently Unidades de Batalla-Bolívar Chávez’, ‘Consejos Comunales’, ‘Círculos del Buen Vivir’ connotes the motorcycle-mounted variety. The and others with names of that kind. In 2002, with the death of Alexis González Revette, Venezuelan National Guard (GN), a national the ‘Colectivo Alexis Vive’ was born. The ‘Movimiento Revolucionario de Liberación armed force with domestic police attributes and Carapaica’ (Revolutionary Liberation Movement of Carapaica’ , often just Carapaica) authorities, loosely controls at least some of the under the orders of Murachí y Oswaldo Arenas, is considered the most dangerous of all motorized colectivos. This makes considerable of them…The civil war to which Venezuela finds itself submitted is in good part under the practical sense, because, among other reasons, direction of the referenced bolivarian colectivos…They rely on social works, propaganda the GN relies on the motorcycle for the mobility and marketing apparatuses, communications systems and a process of paramilitary type of its own units. The author notes, however, that activity in the service of the autocracy that finances them, so long as they remain ‘ faithful’ as a coercive tool of the Venezuelan Marxist to the self-proclaimed ‘revolution’. left, the colectivos predate Hugo Chavez’s rise to power. The first and perhaps best “Two of these groups, the Carapaicas and the Tupamaros, have had known of the colectivos, La Piedrita military training by guerrillas such as the Colombian FARC.” (apparently named after a Caracas neighborhood), dates from 1985. The article also Source: Los 5 colectivos chavistas más temidos por la población civil de Venezuela (The 5 highlights the colectivos’ Cuban birthright and chavista colectivos most feared by the Venezuelan civilian population),” Infobae, 29 April the continuing influence of Cuban intelligence. 2017. http://www.infobae.com/america/venezuela/2017/04/29/los-5-colectivos-chavistas- mas-temidos-por-la-poblacion-civil-de-venezuela/ The second of the accompanying sources asserts that the colectivos have Russian …It is that these groups operate as owners of zones they occupy. Their principal function weapons and have had military training from id ‘to defend the bolivarian revolution’, and for that they have every type of weapon the Colombian FARC (Revolutionary Armed and strike groups that they use to attack those who they consider to be opposed to the Forces of Colombia). The article also suggests model….There are hundreds of colectivos, but the most important, and dangerous, in that there exist, as within the country’s governing Venezuela have sophisticated weapons: Russian-origin shoulder arms (AK) and tear gas political party, fissures and confrontations grenades. Two of these groups, the Carapaicas and the Tupamaros, have had military among the colectivos. According to the article, training by guerrillas such as the Colombian FARC, product of the good relations between the most dangerous ones are the Movimiento this terrorist Group and the chavista government. In addition, they have had relations Revolucionario de Liberación Carapaica with Colombian paramilitary gangs, such as the Rastrojos, who also provide them with (Revolutionary Liberation Movement of weapons.…The government finances them by way of social programs, they authorize Carapaica), The Piedrita, The Tupamaros, allowances for their cultural projects and they generate public tasks like the distribution of La Coordinadora Simón Bolívar (The Simón foodstuffs. But the colectivos, in addition to maintaining their social front, combine their Bolívar Coordinator), Colectivo Alexis Vive political activities with drug trafficking, auto theft and other forms of organized crime…. and El Gran Polo Patriótico (The Great Patriotic Hugo Chávez protected them within his coalition government, financed them and permitted Pole). As a coercive organizational form, the them to grow in the country’s poorest neighborhoods as promoters and guardians of the motorized colectivo seems to be a well-suited Bolivarian Revolution. But Nicolás Maduro does not control all of them, as neither does tool, considering the speed and flexibility of their he have control over a good part of the government PSUV (United Socialist Party of employment, for repressive response to street Venezuela). Some few are still responsive, but others are under the control of shadowy demonstrations and protests. End OE Watch characters within the regime: Diosdado Cabello, accused in the United States of drug Commentary (Demarest) trafficking, and Freddy Bernal, the current national chief of the Local Committees for Supply and Production….

OE Watch | June 2017 24 LATIN AMERICA Outcry over Maduro’s Military Courts OE Watch Commentary: Venezuelan military courts “…Maduro invited El Salvador, Nicaragua, San have recently tried dozens of civilian protesters. The use of military courts is a jurisdictional aberration in Venezuela Vicente and the Grenadines, the Dominican Republic and constitutes a sign that the scale and nature of the conflict and Uruguay to adhere themselves as mediators to the there is rapidly changing. This particular phenomenon has attracted international attention. As the accompanying political dialogue…” passage points out, the Venezuelan government has involved friendly countries in what the Maduro administration hopes to set Source: Editors, “Cuestionan al gobierno venezolano por enjuiciar a up as some kind of internal dialog with opposition party leaders. civiles en tribunales militares (Government of Venezuela questioned The list of invited countries include El Salvador, Nicaragua, San for the judicial processing of civilians in military courts),” Periódico Vicente and the Grenadines, the Dominican Republic and Uruguay. La Jornada, 10 May 2017. http://www.jornada.unam.mx/2017/05/10/ The list might say as much about the governments of the countries mundo/026n1mun that were invited than it does about the use of military courts or In a message directed to the Minister of Defense, General Vladimir the prospect of political dialog with the opposition. Several of the Padrino López, the president of the Congress, Julio Borges, said that countries are members of the Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples the Constitution is clear, military jurisdiction is not for civilians, of Our America (ALBA), an organization dedicated to support carrying demonstrators there is a violation of human rights. According for Bolivarian governments, especially Cuba’s and Venezuela’s. to the opposition and the NGO Foro Penal, dozens of civilians are El Salvador is not in ALBA, but its president, Salvador Sánchez being presented to military tribunals in the context of protests against Cerén, is from the marxist Farabundo Marti Party for National Maduro that began the first of April.…Luisa Ortega, Venezuela’s Liberation (FMLN). Likewise, while Uruguay is also not a attorney general, urged officials of the Public Ministry to work so member of ALBA, its president, Tabaré Vázquez, hails from the that the citizens can believe in the public institutions and services, leftist Broad Front, Frente Amplio. By enlisting the voices of while Maduro invited El Salvador, Nicaragua, San Vicente and ideologically like-minded governments in the region, it appears that the Grenadines, the Dominican Republic and Uruguay to adhere the Venezuelan government is attempting to get ahead of negative themselves as mediators to the political dialogue that he is attempting international press or at least least hoping to gain international to constitute with the opposition, according to minister [of foreign acquiescence or indifference. End OE Watch Commentary affairs] Delcy Rodríguez. (Demarest)

Venezuela: PSUV to Militarize? “We have, with more than sixty activists [in each unit], 10,176 UBCH [Bolivar-Chavez Battle Units] OE Watch Commentary: According to the excerpted ” public announcement - PSUV Representative Pedro Carreño made by a leader in Source: Editors, “(VIDEO) Pedro Carreño: Militantes del PSUV recibirán the incumbent United entrenamiento militar y antimotín. ‘Cada UBCH será un pelotón’ (Video, Pedro Socialist Party of Carreño: PSUV activists will receive military and riot control training, ‘Every Venezuela (PSUV), UBCH will be a platoon’),” Aporrea and Venezuelan Television (VTV). 8 May 017, the party has been https://www.aporrea.org/civico-militar/n308169.html organizing into military units and Representative to the National Assembly for the United Socialist Party of Venezuela will begin anti-riot (PSUV), Pedro Carreño, today announced that his party will begin military training and military training. of its activists ‘ for the integral defense of Venezuela’. …‘We are going to go, the The plan seems PSUV activists, to the training ranges for firing, combat, infiltration, instinctive Seal of the Venezuelan National Militia. ambitious, with Source: Wikimedia Commons, https://commons.wikimedia.org/ fire, personal defense and anti-riot action’, he asserted during an interview on wiki/File:Seal_of_the_Venezuelan_National_Militia.png the announcement Public Domain the government Venezolana de Televisión (VTV) station. Under the plan outlined revealing some by Carreño, each Bolívar Chávez Battle Unit (Unidad de Batalla Bolívar Chávez, organizational form for what are called the Bolivar- UBCH) of the PSUV will have the task of recruiting activists to form combat Chavez Battle Units (UBCH), and their overall battalions. ‘We have, with more than sixty activists [in each unit], 10,176 UBCH. numbers. Those numbers, provided by PSUV official Each UBCH is going to obtain twenty compatriots and each UBCH is going to be Pedro Carreño, suggest that the party has more than a platoon. He said that ‘ four UBCH, that constitutes a Popular Struggle Circle 600,000 activists who could be trained, and that the (Círculo de Lucha Popular, CLP), will be a company. That will be 3, 680 Companies. plan calls for the recruitment of 200,000 more. This is … 920 battalions’. …Added to the training of the PSUV activists is the recently in addition to the 500,000-member Bolivarian Militia. announced increase in combatants of the National Bolivarian Militia. This past The article does not indicate whether there might be April, President Maduro approves a plan to expand Milicia Bolivariana to 500,000 an overlap of memberships or when the training might members, who will be armed with rifles to de deployed in the integral defense zones start. End OE Watch Commentary (Demarest) of the country.

OE Watch | June 2017 25 ASIA-PACIFIC Bhutan’s Relations With China and India by Sudha Ramachandran Republished in collaboration with the Jamestown Foundation’s China Brief, Vol.17, Issue 6, dated 20 April 2017, Edited for OE Watch. For the full article, see: https://jamestown.org/program/bhutans-relations-china-india/

OE Watch Commentary: A small state sandwiched between China and India, Bhutan “So far, Bhutan has not accepted has borne the cost of their geopolitical rivalry. China, which has generally settled its China’s package deal ‘due to India’s border disputes with its smaller neighbors in the latter’s favor, has shown little generosity in dealing with Bhutan due to Bhutan’s ‘special relationship’ with India. Bhutan is also pressure and this situation is likely China’s only neighbor with which Beijing does not have official diplomatic relations. The to continue.’ However, diplomatic accompanying passages provide insight into Bhutan’s difficult position between China and India and the factors that may lead Bhutan to move gradually towards establishing formal relations seem ‘a real possibility in economic and diplomatic relations with Beijing. the foreseeable future’.” The Sino-Bhutanese border dispute involves 764 square kilometers of territory in Bhutan, comprising the Doklam Plateau. Although this dispute is over a small area Source: Author’s Interview, Mathew Joseph C., Associate Professor at MMAJ Academy of of land, the Doklam Plateau has enormous strategic significance for China, Bhutan as International Studies, Jamia Millia Islamia, New well as India. India’s defense of its northeast would be undermined should Bhutan cede Delhi, March 28; Pranav Kumar, “Sino-Bhutanese control over it to China. Relations: Under the Shadow of India-Bhutan Relations,” in China Report (New Delhi), vol.46, Direct talks between China and Bhutan commenced in 1984. China offered to give no.3, 2010, p. 251. up claims on other areas in exchange for the Doklam Plateau. It also pressed for the establishment of trade and diplomatic relations as a quid pro quo for a border settlement. Bhutan’s dilemma is that accepting this deal would bring it a stable and settled border “So far, Bhutan has not accepted China’s package with China, but it would not be easy to sell the deal at home. Ceding the Doklam Plateau deal “due to India’s pressure and this situation is would involve giving up rich pastoral land that supports the livelihoods of people living likely to continue.” However, diplomatic relations seem “a real possibility in the foreseeable future.” in the western border districts and legislators from those districts are opposing the deal. Bhutan would also have to contend with Indian pressure. India is strongly opposed to the deal as its defenses would be significantly weakened if Bhutan ceases control of the Doklam Plateau to China. Source: Author’s Interview, Caroline Brassard, Adjunct faculty at the Lee Kuan Yew School of A landlocked country, Bhutan is heavily dependent on India for access to the sea, trade Public Policy, National University of Singapore, and development aid. Around 79 percent of Bhutan’s total imports are from India and March 30. India provides a market for 90 percent of its exports. India is also Bhutan’s largest aid donor and has financed much of its Five Year Plans; its contribution of US$750 million “Clearly, ‘more economic opportunities’ lie ahead for Bhutan by engaging with China and Beijing towards Bhutan’s Eleventh Five Year Plan (2013–18), for instance, represents 68 percent ‘can help significantly’ in developing Bhutan’s of the total external assistance that Bhutan received. ‘very small private sector.’” As the first accompanying quote points out, so far, Bhutan has not accepted China’s package deal “due to India’s pressure and this situation is likely to continue.” However, diplomatic relations seem “a real possibility in the foreseeable future.” There is growing interest in Bhutan for establishing diplomatic relations with China. Democratization has ushered in expanding space for public debate and highly sensitive issues are being debated in the National Assembly. Parliamentarians are raising questions on foreign policy issues and the government is under growing pressure from the private sector, including the Bhutan Chambers of Commerce to resolve the border dispute and importantly, establish economic relations with China. Public access to television and the Internet has enhanced public awareness about China, its robust economic ties with other South Asian countries, including India. Bhutanese would like to benefit from such relations too. As the second accompanying quote notes, “more economic opportunities” lie ahead for Bhutan by engaging with China; and Beijing “can help significantly” in developing Bhutan’s “very small private sector.”

In addition to desiring proximity to China for economic reasons, a ‘normal relationship’ with China is seen to be necessary for Bhutan to secure its sovereignty. Experts note that ignoring China at the behest of India is seen to be in itself a long-term peril to Bhutanese sovereignty. Fear drew Bhutan away from China. That is slowly changing and some Bhutanese are keen to engage China for the economic opportunities it offers and to balance India’s outsize influence in the kingdom. Though few in number, this group is growing.

Emerging pressure from its own population and China could see Bhutan move gradually towards establishing formal economic and diplomatic relations with Beijing. Both Bhutan and China would need to tread carefully. Should this process stir unease in India, Delhi can be expected to press Bhutan to pull back. More importantly, any Chinese aggression in the Himalayas, including military crackdowns in Tibet, would reawaken old fears of China in Bhutan. That would slow the establishment of Sino-Bhutanese diplomatic relations. End OE Watch Commentary (Ramachandran) OE Watch | June 2017 26 ASIA-PACIFIC Philippines Choose Chinese Investment Over Territorial Defense by Peter Wood Republished in collaboration with the Jamestown Foundation’s China Brief, Vol.17, Issue 6, dated 20 April 2017, Edited for OE Watch. For the full article, see: https://jamestown.org/program/philippines-choose-chinese-investment-territorial-defense/

OE Watch Commentary: In early April, Philippine President “Because of our friendship with China, I Rodrigo Duterte made waves when he promised to improve Philippine defenses on islands in the South China Sea. Additional comments will not go there [the island of Kalayaan, claimed that the Philippine armed forces would seize unoccupied Pagasa] to raise the Philippine flag.” islands, and that Duterte would plant a flag in Pagasa. As the accompanying passage shows, Duterte rolled back these comments less - Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte than a week later, “Because of our friendship with China.” Earlier in March Duterte had declared that he did not wish to confront China in the South China Sea.

The Philippines are an interesting test case for the effectiveness of Chinese attempts to export values and win allies through economic incentives— even those with whom it has competing territorial claims. Economic development is a core plank of Duterte’s political appeal, one he is unlikely to risk through real action in the South China Sea. During his October 2016 state visit to China, Duterte secured $24 billion worth of loans and infrastructure projects. These loans are critical because Duterte’s President Rodrigo R. Duterte poses with the 8th Infantry Division troops during his visit at Camp Vicente “National Security Policy 2017–2022”, Lukban in Catbalogan, Samar on August 8, 2016. Source: By Presidential Communications Operations Office [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons, https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/fc/President_Rodrigo_ proposed in October 2016, places internal Duterte_poses_with_the_8th_Infantry_Division_troops_080816.jpg conflicts, economic and social threats, (such as poverty, corruption, drugs, food security) as its focus—not external Source: “Duterte won’t plant PH flag in Kalayaan because security. Fiery rhetoric about improving bases aside, budgetary figures of China friendship,” ABS-CBN News, April 13 2017. indicate that the focus will be on these internal economic and security http://news.abs-cbn.com/news/04/12/17/duterte-wont- issues—not confrontation with China. plant-ph-flag-in-kalayaan-because-of-china-friendship “I would like to correct myself along the way... I said I President Duterte has clearly changed the direction of Philippine will go to the island of Kalayaan, Pag-asa on June 12 to defense policy, prioritizing achieving internal security and economic raise the Filipino flag there,” Duterte said in a meeting prosperity first. Duterte’s acceptance of Chinese investment in exchange with the Filipino community in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, for not challenging territorial claims has important security implications where he is in a two-day state visit. for the rest of South-east Asia. With Chinese island reclamation projects nearing completion, Duterte may have traded away the Philippines’ “If every heads of state of the contending parties around ability to effectively enforce their claims. It also sets a precedent for the West Philippine Sea will go there to plant their flags, other states which face similar hard choices: improve defenses and bring there will likely be trouble. Because of our friendship with China to the negotiation table over territorial claims, or accept economic China, I will not go there to raise the Philippine flag,” Duterte said. investment for acquiescence. End OE Watch Commentary (Wood)

OE Watch | June 2017 27 ASIA-PACIFIC China and Thailand Arms Factory Deal is One Step Closer

OE Watch Commentary: China and Thailand Source: “Arms Factory Deal Edges Closer,” Bangkok Post, 24 April 2017. are reportedly finalizing a plan to build a http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/security/1237890/arms-factory-deal-edges-closer Chinese weapons production and maintenance facility in Thailand. As the accompanying article First revealed to the public late last year after Gen[eral] Prawit’s (Wongsuwong) trip to discusses, the plan will be concluded this July Beijing, the plan [to build a production and maintenance facility for Chinese weapons in and will make Thailand an armament technology Thailand] which will also make Thailand an armament technology transfer hub, has been transfer hub. Thailand hopes to use the facility gathering momentum with talks between officials from both countries making progress. to produce drones and marine aircraft and as It aims to provide a maintenance depot for Chinese weapons sold to Thailand as well as a maintenance depot for Chinese weapons, build spare parts for armoured vehicles. including building spare parts for armored vehicles. Authorities also want the centre to produce drones and marine aircraft. In the long term, it will play a major role in passing on knowledge and the latest Thailand turned to China for support technology associated with Chinese armaments used in Thailand and Southeast Asia to following its 2014 military coup, which ousted Thai military personnel. the Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra’s Thailand needs “strategic weapons”, which are also being used by neighbouring administration. Over the past several months, countries to protect maritime interests and provide “military muscle to back up Thailand has attempted to secure arms deals negotiations,” he [Defense Ministry Spokesman Major General Kongcheep Tantrawanit] with the Asian giant to bolster its capabilities quoted Gen[eral] Prawit as saying during the meeting. and to replace older US systems that need “Widening access for private capital to enter these industries, together with improved to be decommissioned. It will be interesting regulation, will both boost development efficiency and stimulate private investment to see how much cooperation will truly take growth,” Li [“Widening access for private capital to enter these industries, together place between China and Thailand. According with improved regulation, will both boost development efficiency and stimulate private to the article, the facility “will play a major investment growth,” Li [Wei, head of the Development Research Center of the State role in passing on knowledge and the latest Council] said. technology associated with Chinese armaments Growth in private investment slowed to 3.2 percent year on year in 2016, 6.9 percentage used in Thailand and Southeast Asia to Thai points lower than in 2015, due to poor performance in manufacturing, service and mining military personnel.” The question is, will China sectors, as well as continued price decline of investment in fixed assets. But the downward be completely transparent with the country, trend was reversed after the government moved to spur growth, with private investment allowing it access to important technology, or recording growth of 6.7 percent in the first two months of the year. will it take measures to ensure Thailand remains beholden to it to a certain degree? End OE China aims to increase output of strategic emerging industries to account for 15 percent of GDP by 2020. Watch Commentary (Hurst)

“Widening access for private capital to enter these industries, together with improved regulation, will both boost development efficiency and stimulate private investment growth.”

China’s Concept of Military Strategy By Timothy L. Thomas China’s concept of military strategy is very different from that of the United States. This article examines the various components of the strategic thought of the People’s Liberation Army and how its theory of strategy can be applied in contemporary times. Among other things, the article offers US analysts a template for confronting Chinese strategy.

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OE Watch | June 2017 28 ASIA-PACIFIC Vietnam’s Ongoing Energy Challenge

OE Watch Commentary: Vietnam was once completely self-sufficient in coal. However, that has changed and now the country is struggling to maintain pace with its growing domestic demand for coal powered electricity. The accompanying article from VN Economic Times, a news portal run by Vietnam’s Ministry of Information and Communications, offers insight into some of Vietnam’s struggles to meet its current and future demand for electricity. One major issue, according to the article, is that the country will need to diversifying energy resources because it is growing so quickly. However, cost is also an issue. For example, Vietnam has been considering building two nuclear reactors, but as the passage notes, the cost is too high “for a country with a public debt now Map of Vietnam, Vietnamese version. Source:By Lưu Ly, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3ALocation0fVietnam.svg [GFDL (http://www.gnu.org/copyleft/fdl.html) or CC BY-SA 4.0-3.0-2.5-2.0-1.0 (http:// touching 65 percent of gross domestic product.” creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0-3.0-2.5-2.0-1.0)], via Wikimedia Commons Therefore, the project is not moving forward.

It appears that Vietnam’s best option for electricity is to Source: Energy an Ongoing Challenge for Vietnam,” VN Economic Times, increase its use of coal, which is much cheaper. The article 10 May 2017. http://english.vietnamnet.vn/fms/business/178108/energy-an- discusses that by 2020, the country’s coal plants will be ongoing-challenge-for-vietnam.html producing 49% of its electricity output by burning 63 million Historically, Vietnam has been self-sufficient in coal but this has now tons of coal. While Vietnam was once able to meet its coal changed. It is now transitioning from exporting to importing energy. demand through its domestic mining efforts, it now depends “Vietnam imported nearly 10 million tons of coal in 2016 and purchased 5 more on imports. Today, Vietnam imports most of its coal billion kWh of electricity from China in the peak period,” Deputy Minister of from Australia, Indonesia, Russia, China, and Malaysia. Industry and Trade Hoang Quoc Vuong told a recent energy conference. According to the article, as its economy continues to expand, driving energy demand up, the country will need to diversify Coal-fired power, while having environmental impacts, is still the necessary its energy sources, or continue to increase its consumption power source for Vietnam to meet its growth demand, Deputy Minister of coal, which seems to be the most likely option based Vuong explained, adding that Vietnam will not sacrifice the environment for economic development. “In the time to come, the supervision process and on affordability. Of course, as the article points out, there environmental standards applied on coal-fired power plants will be stricter. is the ongoing challenge of ensuring coal-powered-plants Investors will also have to come up with eco-friendly solutions for coal ash meet the clean air requirements, which will drive up costs handling.” as well. It will be interesting to see how Vietnam ultimately meets is energy challenge. Otherwise there will be serious Last November, after years of mulling over costs, feasibility, foreign ramifications on the country’s economy. End OE Watch cooperation, and safety issues, Vietnam pulled away from nuclear power. The Commentary (Hurst) two nuclear reactors still on the drawing board would have added 40,000 MW to the national grid but the estimated price tag of $27 billion was too high for a country with a public debt now touching 65 per cent of GDP. “Historically, Vietnam has been The country’s annual power consumption is about 162 billion kWh, self-sufficient in coal but this has now according to estimates by Electricity of Vietnam (EVN). It has some 20 coal- fired plants and plans to increase that number to 32 by 2020 and 51 by 2030. changed. It is now transitioning from This means that, by 2020, the country’s coal plants will be producing 49 per exporting to importing energy.” cent of its electricity output by burning 63 million tons of coal.

OE Watch | June 2017 29 ASIA-PACIFIC China’s Push on the Belt and Road Initiative: Push-Back or Acceptance? OE Watch Commentary: China’s state-controlled media has been Source: “Center Helps Protect Environment Along Belt and Road,” trying to promote its proposed One Belt One Road (OBOR) initiative Xinhua, 10 May 2017. http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2017- through a series of articles discussing the benefits of the project. 04/01/c_136274191.htm Chinese President Xi Jinping had proposed OBOR as a development A center in Africa is working to “create a green environment” strategy to connect China with Asian countries, Europe, and Africa. along the Belt and Road. The first three accompanying excerpts from the Chinese media provide The Sino-Africa Joint Research Center (SAJRC) under the Chinese examples of this promotion effort, while the last two offer different Academy of Sciences has been helping with biodiversity, water, perspectives from Myanmar and India. and ecological environmental monitoring, agriculture, disease The first article, for example, released by China’s state-run media prevention, etc. in Africa, said SAJRC director Wang Qingfeng in a outlet Xinhua, discusses that a center in Africa is working to “create press conference. a green environment” along the Belt and Road in Africa. The second article argues that the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), Source: Liu Tian, “How the China Pakistan Economic Corridor is which is “a flagship project of OBOR, will raise the living standards in Raising Living Standards in Pakistan,” Xinhua, 10 May 2017. http:// Pakistan through infrastructure and improved access to much needed news.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-05/10/c_136272053.htm energy. The third article argues that Europe will benefit because OBOR will further cooperation and bring Europe closer to China. Residents of Pakistan’s southwestern port city of Gwadar will enjoy Not all countries see China’s proposal as a good thing, however, and better emergency medical treatment thanks to the opening of a perceptions vary depending on viewpoint. For example, in the fourth hospital donated by China earlier this month. article from Mizzima, a private daily newspaper in Myanmar, the Adjacent to the newly built hospital is Faqeer Primary School author points out that China has been seeking to secure an 85 percent where over 300 pupils sit in new classrooms with freshly painted ownership of a planned deep-water port in Kyauk Phyu, Rahkine desks. Opened in September 2016, the school was the first China- State in western Myanmar as part of the OBOR initiative. The author donated project aimed at improving the livelihood of people along explains, however, that the local population would likely oppose the CPEC. China’s level of ownership based on three things: its distrust of the The company is now building the Sukker-Multan section of country; fear that a lack of access to facilities could harm opportunities the Peshawar-Karachi Expressway, a 392-km road with a total in oil and gas offshore development since only Chinese firms would investment of 2.89 million U.S. dollars that involves some 10,000 have access, thereby employing only Chinese workers; and fear of Pakistani as well as 1,500 Chinese engineers and laborers working Myanmar losing some of its land. The author opines that if China were around the clock on the site. to ignore the local community’s concerns, it would “doom the project to failure.” Energy is a major pillar of CPEC projects. According to Sun Weidong, Chinese ambassador to Pakistan, 11 of the 19 CPEC The fifth article, written from India’s perspective, describes China’s projects completed so far are within the energy category to address OBOR initiative as “part of an awakening that has transformed China Pakistan’s chronic power shortages. They include coal-fired plants, into the world’s second most powerful country “poised to overtake the hydropower facilities, wind and solar power farms. first” and claims that “The economic muscle that is being built through projects such as OBOR is but an extension of the military and strategic muscles that are continuously being strengthened.” The author also Source: “Feature: Europe Shares Benefits Brought by Belt Road claims that China’s plans for OBOR are creating a shift in regional Initiative,” Xinhua, 10 May 2017. http://news.xinhuanet.com/ geopolitical ties. For example, Iran was once interested in building english/2017-05/10/c_136271970.htm relations with India. However, the country has since moved towards joining the growing China-Pakistan-Russia partnership. Proposed by China in 2013, the initiative consists of the Silk Road China still has a lot of legwork to make its goal a reality. Only Economic Belt and the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road. It aims time will tell if the initiative will be fully realized. Clearly, there is to build a trade and infrastructure network connecting Asia with much apprehension to allowing China’s OBOR initiative go through, Europe and Africa along, and beyond, the ancient Silk Road trade at least completely within the Asian giant’s terms. Furthermore, as routes. Many European countries believe that the Belt and Road China continues to push its proposal, it could very well create a major Initiative and Europe’s revival plans bring opportunities for each geostrategic shift in regional relations as some countries focus on other, and only catching the “Chinese Express of opportunities” the advantages, while others push back in protest. End OE Watch might help better share the benefits. Commentary (Hurst)

(continued) OE Watch | June 2017 30 ASIA-PACIFIC Continued: China’s Push on the Belt and Road Initiative: Push-Back or Acceptance? “The sheer sweep of the concept—shall we say, the daring —is a proclamation of China’s ambitions. We will miss the big message underlying the big idea if we see OBOR in isolation. It is part of an awakening that has transformed China into the world’s second most powerful country, poised to overtake the first.” Source: Andre Wheeler, “Kyauk Phyu Source: AT.J.S. George, “China’s Take-Over of the South China Sea is Complete; A Summit and China’s One Belt One Road – Next Week Clinches its Strategic Gains,” The New Indian Express Online, 7 May 2017. http:// Fake News or Wishful Thinking?” webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:PHZQ2JtZfNUJ:www.newindianexpress.com/ Mizzima, 10 May 2017. opinions/columns/t-j-s-george/2017/may/07/chinas-take-over-of-the-south-china-sea-is-complete- http://www.mizzima.com/ a-summit-next-week-clinches-its-strategic-gain-1601868.html+&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us business-opinion/kyauk-phyu-and- china%E2%80%99s-one-belt-one- The sheer sweep of the concept—shall we say, the daring —is a proclamation of China’s road-%E2%80%93-fake-news-or- ambitions. We will miss the big message underlying the big idea if we see OBOR in isolation. wishful-thinking It is part of an awakening that has transformed China into the world’s second most powerful country, poised to overtake the first. The economic muscle that is being built through projects such China seeks 85% control / ownership as OBOR is but an extension of the military and strategic muscles that are continuously being of the Kyauk Phyu development [a strengthened. deep-water port in Rahkine State]. In my view, this is an unlikely outcome… China’s attitude to India has changed, too. It seems to have concluded that India is no longer the serious competitor it once appeared to be. On the OBOR issue, China officially stated that “India China has considerable economic will have a representative”. (Perhaps a middle rank diplomat or businessman). The Chinese muscle to exert pressure on the media, however, felt no need to be diplomatic. It said Delhi would be isolated and embarrassed by civilian government. its stand that Russia and Iran are “seeking to join the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor which … having a contract or agreement will put India in a more awkward position”. to proceed with a project / investment Iran was initially most interested in building relations with India. Given Shia Iran’s problems does not necessarily mean that the with Baluchistan, close ties with Tehran should have been a strategic (besides economic) priority project will proceed. for India. But our responses were tardy. … recent geo-political events, not Iran has since moved away to the warmer China-Pakistan-Russia partnership. Yet another just in Myanmar, but in the Region pointer to the altered situation is India’s apparent loss of interest in the Shanghai Cooperation have suggested that community Organization. There was a time when India was eager to get full membership. In another month activism is increasingly playing a role formalization of full membership, along with Pakistan’s, is to be processed. Despite the fact that in project roll out. this is part of the profound realignments that are taking place in Eurasia, India is sulking.

China in Red, the members of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank in orange. The 6 proposed corridors ( https://www.merics.org/en/merics-analysis/ infographicchina-mapping/china-mapping/ ) in black. Source: By Lommes (Own work), https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3AOne-belt-one-road.svg [CC BY-SA 4.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

OE Watch | June 2017 31 ASIA-PACIFIC Operational Data: China’s Key to Victory on Future Battlefields?

OE Watch Commentary: Sun Cuijuan of the Navy Source: “Sun Cuijuan and Yin Chengyou, “机器战争纪元”帷幕正在拉 Command Academy of the People’s Liberation Army and Yin 开 (The Curtain of the “Era of Machine Warfare” is Being Pulled Open),” Chengyou of the Air Defense Command Academy discuss the JiefangJunBao Online, 4 May 2017. http://news.xinhuanet.com/mil/2017- importance of data in a May issue of the Chinese newspaper 05/04/c_129588629.htm Jiefangjun Bao Online. They note that operational data Winning victories by means of data is an inevitable trend in informatized does three things. It provides support to the functioning of warfare. On future battlefields, superiority in combat operations mainly operational systems, plays a role in multiplying the effects of finds expression in information superiority, and information superiority is military equipment, and, as the excerpted passage notes, helps overwhelmingly dependent on data superiority. ensure decisive victories on future battlefields. Operational Operational data refers to all data needed in such military activities data transforms intuitive-based concepts into precise plans as operational command, operational action, operational support, and and delivery mechanisms. More importantly, the authors combat readiness training; and encompasses information in the aspects claim that in the course of informatized warfare, accurate data of military forces, personnel, equipment, materials, positions, postures, support enables commanders to possess real-time command and intelligence in close relation with operational command. Operational of dynamic battlefield situations and serves as the foundation data plays an important role in system-of-systems operations based for operational calculations and control. End OE Watch on information systems and determines the functional stability of the Commentary (Thomas) command information system, the effectiveness of data processing, and the scientific character of command decisions. So data constitutes crucial resources that are indispensable in the course of building and using the command information system. “Winning victories by means of data is an The overall effectiveness of the operation system is dependent upon inevitable trend in informatized warfare. the timely and orderly direction and guidance given by operation data to various combat units on various nodes of the battlefield network. On future battlefields, superiority in combat Therefore, great importance must be attached to the building of operations mainly finds expression in operation data based on information systems, with efforts being made to continuously expand and enhance the scale and quality of operation data information superiority, and information building, implement operation data in all the phases of reconnaissance superiority is overwhelmingly dependent on and early warning, command and control, information confrontation, and combat effects evaluation, provide scientific, accurate, real-time data data superiority.” support for combat operations, drive the regrouping and integration of various combat forces according to the operational requirements so as to truly shape the system-of-systems operation capabilities.

China’s cyber policy has become partly visible to foreign nations through observation, tracking, and inference. The policy appears to have three vectors. These three aspects—peace activist, espionage activist, and attack planner—dominate China’s cyber policy. Some are always hidden from view while others are demonstrated daily. Three Faces of the Cyber Dragon is divided into sections that coincide with these vectors.

https://community.apan.org/wg/tradoc-g2/fmso/

OE Watch | June 2017 32 ASIA-PACIFIC China Continues to Build Aircraft Carriers

OE Watch Commentary: China recently launched its second aircraft carrier, the Type 001A. As the excerpted passage from Source: “Experts Weigh in on What to Expect from China’s Next Two Aircraft Carriers,” Global Times Online, 9 May 2017, http://www. Global Times Online, an English-language newspaper sponsored globaltimes.cn/content/1046052.shtml by the People’s Daily discusses, still planned are a third carrier (Type 002, reportedly under construction in Shanghai since China’s second aircraft carrier, the first one to be made domestically, March 2015) that will be conventionally powered but will use was recently launched and the country is on track to field a dual- steam launch catapults; and a fourth carrier predicted to be aircraft carrier strike group in a couple of years. “We will definitely continue to build aircraft carriers,” Li Jie, a Beijing-based navy nuclear powered and able to use advanced launch systems. In expert, told the Global Times. “The People’s Liberation Army Navy all, China plans to build ten carriers. Also under construction is (PLAN) will have more than three in the future, so as to ensure its the Type 075 large-deck amphibious assault ship in Shanghai, combat ability while conducting practice and maintenance at the same which will be similar in size to the US Wasp-class amphibious time.” ships. It is a 40,000-ton vessel planned for service in 2020 and China’s fourth carrier will carry fourth-generation fixed wing most likely will be used to accompany aircraft carriers. End OE aircraft, warning aircraft, electronic warfare aircraft, and other ship- Watch Commentary (Thomas) based aircraft. “The full-load displacement and deck of the fourth aircraft carrier will likely be larger; its stealth performance will be better,” Li said. “The possibility of adopting an electromagnetic aircraft launch system (EMALS) and aircraft landing technology that “‘We will definitely continue to build aircraft may be on par with or even outclass the US’s cannot be ruled out.” carriers’ ... ‘The People’s Liberation Army The PLAN is projected to have between 265 and 273 warships, Navy (PLAN) will have more than three in submarines, and logistics vessels by 2020, more than the US Navy’s 260 vessels, the Washington DC-based Center for Naval Analyses said the future, so as to ensure its combat ability in a report last year. while conducting practice and maintenance “The economic benefits seem imbalanced considering the huge cost of construction and maintenance, but many other benefits are invisible at the same time’. ” and cannot be calculated,” Li argued. The US’s ten aircraft carriers help it deter other countries, maintain its maritime hegemony, and protect it strategic interests globally, Li said. “The carriers will not only help safeguard Chinese ocean security, protect our interests, and rescue Chinese nationals, but will also enhance our power on the seas and in diplomacy.” Li stressed.

Sergey Shoygu: Russia’s Emergency Defense Minister A Bio-Sketch By Ray Finch, FMSO

This paper briefly examines the background of Russia’s Minister of Defense, Sergey Shoygu, the speculation behind his sudden appointment in November 2012, the challenges he faces, his efforts thus far within the Defense Ministry, and possible future implications -both military and political – surrounding his selection as Russia’s chief military representative. This paper posits that should the stars align correctly, as a close friend of President Vladimir Putin, Shoygu could become the next leader of Russia.

https://community.apan.org/wg/tradoc-g2/fmso/

OE Watch | June 2017 33 ASIA-PACIFIC Cooperation with Civilians Leads to Killing of Commander OE Watch Commentary: On 12 April, the Philippine website Rappler, which commonly reports on terrorism and social issues, carried details of the Philippine Armed Forces operation that killed Muamar Askali, a commander of Abu Sayyaf. Askali had been involved in kidnappings of foreigners, including a German hostage who Abu Sayyaf killed in February 2017. The article discusses several local factors that led to the success of this operation.

According to the article, when Askali’s group of fighters arrived on pumpboats to an area near Bohol in Central Visayas, locals in the area informed the military about the suspicious presence of the pumpboats. The area was outside of Askali’s typical area of operations and the locals were especially vigilant because it was Easter week. It was their detection of this Inabanga, Bohol, Philippines. Source: By P199 (Own work) [CC BY-SA 3.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0) or GFDL (http://www.gnu.org/copyleft/fdl.html)], via unusual activity and coordination with the military Wikimedia Commons that enabled the military to carry out the raid that killed Askali. Source: “ASG leader behind foreigners’ kidnap killed in Bohol” Rappler, 12 April 2017. http://www.rappler.com/ Also important to the success of this operation against Askali were the nation/166731-abu-sayyaf-leader-killed-bohol ongoing operations against Abu Sayyaf in Jolo and Sulu, where Abu Sayyaf’s main bases are located. According to the article, the military has forced Abu Sayyaf out of its main bases, which is why Askali moved to less familiar terrain Muamar Askali, a subleader of the Abu Sayyaf Group in Bohol to carry out operations. Askali’s move to Bohol was likely because [ASG], who also served as its spokesman, was among it is a popular tourist area, thus providing significant opportunities to kidnap those killed in clashes with government forces in Inabanga, foreigners. The article notes that the US issued a travel warning about potential Bohol. At least 5 other ASG members were reportedly kidnappings in Central Visayas several days before the operation that killed killed in the clashes, a military spokesman said. Askali. They reached the famous tourist destination as the island prepared for the influx of tourists for the Holy Week break. The article also quotes the chief of the Philippine Armed Forces Western Residents of Inabanga town reported the presence of Mindanao Command (Westmincom), who says the death of Askali and five pumpboats to the police, who immediately coordinated with other Abu Sayyaf members is a big blow to Abu Sayyaf and will prevent its the military. Lieutenant General Carlito Galvez said the power projection outside of Jolo and Sulu. This counter-terrorism success for death of Askali is a big blow to Abu Sayyaf. the Philippines can be attributed to several factors, based on the account in the article. These include the coordination between the civilians and the military The damage will be felt when it comes to the group’s and the military’s pressure on Abu Sayyaf in its main bases that forced it to projection of power outside Sulu. Askali’s group slipped operate outside of familiar terrain. End OE Watch Commentary (Zenn) out of Mindanao as the military stepped up operations in the group’s base in Jolo and neighboring islands in southern Mindanao. “Residents of Inabanga town reported the The encounter between security forces and the armed presence of pumpboats to the police, who group happened days after the United States issued a travel advisory warning of planned kidnappings by immediately coordinated with the military.” terrorist groups in Central Visayas.

OE Watch | June 2017 34 ASIA-PACIFIC Malacca Strait Patrols Reinvented for Sulu Sea OE Watch Commentary: The excerpted Indonesian-language article in Source: “Malaysia, Indonesia, Filipina Akan Patroli Sindonews from 15 March discusses the decision by Malaysia, the Philippines Bersama di Laut Sulu (Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines and Indonesia to set up not only maritime patrols, but also air patrols along Will Patrol the Sulu Sea Together),” Beritasatu, 17 March the waters and coastlines in the Sulu Sea. According to the article, the success 2017. http://www.beritasatu.com/asia/419496-malaysia- of multilateral patrols in virtually eliminating piracy in the Malacca Strait indonesia-filipina-akan-patroli-bersama-di-laut-sulu.html and the confidence built between the countries engaging in joint patrols there, including between Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand, has inspired the design of the new patrols in the Sulu Sea. This new level of cooperation will Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Philippines will start joint allow member countries to pursue pirates or terrorists in the naval waters of patrols in the Sulu Sea in April. This step is expected to put other member countries. The key security issues faced in the Sulu Sea include an end to decades of lawlessness in the rich waters. Chief of kidnappings, such as those carried out by Abu Sayyaf or other bandits as well the Navy Malaysia Admiral Ahmad Kamarulzaman said the as illegal fishing and various forms of smuggling and trafficking. cooperation is unprecedented and shows the level of trust and confidence among the three countries. Just as in the Malacca Strait, where India received permission from the four countries involved in the patrols to join in April 2017, in the Sulu Sea Australia Ahmad said the initiative in the Sulu Sea will involve may be considered as partner in the new patrol there. The article states that not only maritime patrols, but also air patrols along the Australia expressed an interest in joining during the visit of the Malaysian waters and coastlines. The plan was designed after the Defense Minister with the Australian Foreign Minister. The Malaysian Defense latest multilateral patrols in the Malacca Strait which Minister had the approval of Malaysian Prime Minister Abdul Razak to seek were successful in reducing the number of reported cases new partnerships in the Sulu Sea, such as one with Australia. of piracy to almost zero. Malaysia and Indonesia have been given the “green light” to pursue militants vessels in Nonetheless, the geopolitical reality of India patrolling in the Malacca Strait Philippine waters. and Australia patrolling in the Sulu Sea is likely to face some resistance from China, which will perceive this as threatening. Thus, operationalizing a role for Meanwhile, Malaysian Defense Minister Hishammuddin Australia in the joint patrols in Sulu Sea may prove more difficult in practice Hussein said Australia also expressed interest to take steps than in discussion. End OE Watch Commentary (Zenn) in the fight against piracy in troubled waters.

“The plan was designed after the latest multilateral patrols in the Malacca Strait which were successful in reducing the number of reported cases of piracy to almost

Malaysian tug prepares for de-fueling near USS Guardian. zero.”” Source: Official Navy Page from United States of America AW3 Geoffrey Trudell/U.S. Navy, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3AMalaysian_tug_prepares_for_de-fueling_near_USS_Guardian.jpg, Public Domain.

OE Watch | June 2017 35 CENTRAL ASIA, CAUCASUS More Fallout from the St. Petersburg Metro Bombing

OE Watch Commentary: More details are emerging on “The motivation of activity of jihadists – Russia’s support the St. Petersburg metro bombing that took place on 3 April. The accompanying excerpted articles from Russian and of the Assad regime in Syria…” Central Asian sources report on the arrests of a number Source: Saipov, Shokhrukh. “Кто такие братья Азимовы - «организаторы» of Central Asians in the weeks following the attack. One теракта в Санкт-Петербурге? Рассказывают родственники и соседи (Who nuanced Russian analysis claims that “the jihadist factor... are the Azimov brothers – “organizers” of the terrorist attack in St. Petersburg? is now returning to Russia,” and is motived by “Russia’s Relatives and neighbors discuss),” Fergana, 27 April 2017. http://www. support of the Assad regime in Syria.” fergananews.com/articles/9387 The article from Fergana, a Moscow based news website …Is it possible, like some Russian government officials, to put responsibility with contributors from Central Asia, reported on the arrests for the latest situation on all migrants from the southern former Soviet states?... of the brothers Abror and Akram Azimov, who are ethnic The family and neighbors of the Azimov brothers Abror and Akram, who the Uzbeks from the city of Osh, Kyrgyzstan. Russian officials security services of Russia suspect of organizing the terrorist attack in St. stated that the brothers organized the attack and provided Petersburg, do not believe in their involvement…At the end of 2013 the Azimov support to the suicide bomber Akbarjon Jalilov, also an brothers received Russian citizenship…The mother of the brothers claims that ethnic Uzbek from Osh. The article points out that Abror her eldest son was abducted from a hospital in Osh… was allegedly the last person to contact Jalilov before the …According to Russian officials, the arrest of Abror took place on April 17 bombing took place. Videos released by the Russian Federal in the Odintsovskiy District outside Moscow…On April 19 the FSB reported Security Service (FSB) are embedded in the Fergana the arrest of Akram…Abror was the last person in touch with Akbarjon article and they briefly show the brothers being arrested and Jalilov before the terrorist attack in the St. Petersburg metro…Akram was Russian FSB officers finding a Makarov pistol on Abror “involved with falsifying documents of members of an international terrorist and an RGD-5 grenade on Akram. Sources in Kyrgyzstan organization”…A doctor who wished to remain anonymous confirmed that doubted the authenticity of the videos. Akram Azimov was in the hospital from 12-15 April and had an operation… The article from Tajikistan’s Asia-Plus reports on the arrest of a Tajik-national, Sodik Ortikov a few days after Source: “Суд проверит законность ареста гражданина Таджикистана за the bombing. Ortikov has been charged by a court in причастность к теракту в питерском метро (The court will verify the legality Moscow with being involved in the attack, but Russian of the arrest of the citizen of Tajikistan for involvement in the terrorist attack in officials provided no details on this other than that they the Petersburg metro),” Asia-Plus, 24 April 2017. found weapons and explosives in his residence. “Ortikov http://news.tj/news/tajikistan/laworder/20170424/sud-proverit-zakonnost- aresta-grazhdanina-tadzhikistana-za-prichastnost-k-teraktu-v-piterskom-metro said that the weapons and explosives do not belong to him” and while this cannot be verified, Russian officials stated …The Basmany court of Moscow on April 7 imprisoned Sodik Ortikov until no connection between Ortikov and Jalilov or the Azimov June 3 as one of the suspects in the involvement in the terrorist attack. He was brothers. arrested immediately after the attack…a Russian said at the courtroom that The article from the Russian newspaper Nezavisimaya during the arrest of Ortikov, a Makarov pistol, two blocks of explosives and an Gazeta notes that the Azimovs and the suicide bomber F-1 grenade were found. Ortikov said that the weapons and explosives do not Jalilov came from the city of Osh in Kyrgyzstan, but belong to him… questions remain about the connections between the bomber “Sodik Ortikov was born and raised in Kurgan-Tube, he has worked in and those arrested, including their affiliation with any Russia for 15 years as a chef in a Moscow restaurant…,” said a spokesperson terrorist group. The authors of the Nezavisimaya Gazeta for the Tajik embassy in Moscow… article believe that the shooting of two traffic patrol officers in Astrakhan (southern Russia, near the Russian-Kazakh Source: Artur Priymak and Pavel Skrylnikov. “Бумеранг радикализма border) a day after the metro bombing “was carried out by возвращается из Средней Азии (The boomerang of radicalism is returning a mixed ethnic group, the backbone of which is made up of from Central Asia),” Nezavisimaya Gazeta, 19 April 2017. http://www.ng.ru/ natives of Kazakhstan.” The authors acknowledge that “the ng_religii/2017-04-19/9_419_bumerang.html terrorists from Astrakhan were not only Russian citizens, …Azimov is a fellow countryman of the perpetrator of the attack Akbarjon but also grew up in Russia.” This is a little more nuanced Jalilov and both are from the Kyrgyz city of Osh…In the days after the terrorist view than other sources in Russia simply blaming Central attack in St. Petersburg the arrests of people suspected of involvement in this Asians, whether they are Kazakhs, Uzbeks, or Tajiks, but crime took place in several regions of Russia. All of them are natives of Central there has been a prevailing view that more Central Asians Asia…The Central Asian terrorist trail has also shown itself 2 thousand km have become radicalized. Lastly, the authors claim that “the from Petersburg – in Astrakhan. It has now been established that the shooting motivation of activity of jihadists” is “Russia’s support of of two DPS officers in the city was carried out by a mixed ethnic group, the the Assad regime in Syria.” This statement is not likely backbone of which is made up of natives of Kazakhstan… to shift focus from Central Asians living and working in …the terrorists from Astrakhan were not only Russian citizens, but also grew Russia, but it is worth noting as Russian operations in Syria up in Russia…The motivation of activity of jihadists – Russia’s support of the continue. End OE Watch Commentary (Stein) Assad regime in Syria… OE Watch | June 2017 36 CENTRAL ASIA, CAUCASUS The Espionage Case Between Pakistan and India OE Watch Commentary: Espionage has long been part of the conflict between India and Pakistan. The accompanying passages from Pakistani and Indian sources discuss a recent espionage case that may have a significant impact on Pakistan-India relations.

On 10 April, a Pakistani military court sentenced Kulbhushan Jadhav, an alleged Indian spy, to death. One month later, the International Court of Justice (ICJ), of which Pakistan and India are signatories, ordered the government of Pakistan to suspend the execution after India petitioned on the grounds of an unfair trial. While Pakistan is unlikely to proceed with the execution due to ICJ’s judgement, the next step in the case will be worth watching.

The article from Pakistan’s Dawn reports that the Indian spy in question, Kulbhushan Jadhav, was working for India’s Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) and was arrested in March of last year. The Pakistani Minister of Defense is quoted as saying that they have “ruled out immediate execution” and that there are three appellate levels available to Jadhav. The four major ethnic groups of Pakistan in 1980. Source: U.S. Central Intelligence Agency, The article from India’s Live Mint provides further https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3AMajor_ethnic_groups_of_Pakistan_in_1980_borders_removed.jpg, Public Domain information. It points out that Jadhav was formerly an officer in the Indian Navy, and was apprehended by Pakistan in March 2016 for Source: Khan, Iftikhar. “Defence minister rules out “fomenting trouble in Balochistan.” The article notes that “Four days before immediate execution of Indian spy,” Dawn, 12 April the death sentence was pronounced, a Pakistani colonel, Muhammad Habib 2017. https://www.dawn.com/news/1326393 Zahir, went missing from Nepal” in addition to news that “three more RAW Defense Minister Khawaja Mohammad Asif has ruled agents have reportedly been picked up in Pakistan.” Opinion pieces and analysts out immediate execution of a convicted Indian spy and in both countries believe that the additional arrests will eventually result in an said three appellate are available to Kulbhushan Jadhav exchange of officers. The Live Mint article notes that “India would like to keep under the law. He was the one who was working for things quiet” suggesting that India would rather not draw attention to Pakistan’s India’s Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) and was Balochinstan Province (where Jahdhav was arrested), given that this area is home arrested in March last year… The charges he faced to a conflict where Pakistan claims that India interferes in its internal affairs. included spying for India, working against Pakistan’s The Jadhav case drew some international attention, but the viewpoint that integrity, sponsoring terrorism in the country and the Indian government wants to keep the case quiet due to Jadhav’s alleged attempting to destabilize the state. activities in Balochistan is worth noting, particularly at a time when Pakistan Speaking in the Senate on Tuesday, Mr Asif claimed is conducting counterterrorism operations across the country. Since the launch that Jadhav had the right to move in the army of the of Operation Radd-ul-Fasaad in February to combat various terrorist groups, court against his conviction within 60 days, followed Pakistan has executed several people convicted of charges related to terrorism. by the submission of mercy pleas to the army chief and Like Jadhav, they went on trial in Pakistan’s military court system, which some the president. However, a perusal of the Army Act, 1952 Pakistani officials and the public believe is more effective. End OE Watch showed that under Section 131 of the act, an appeal Commentary (Stein) could be moved within 40 days, and not 60 days…

(continued) OE Watch | June 2017 37 CENTRAL ASIA, CAUCASUS Continued: The Espionage Case Between Pakistan and India

“India would like to keep things quiet, as they [Pakistan] have not caught an agent working in Kashmir, a red flag for international observers, but one operating in the Baloch-Iran area.”

Source: Prasad, Rohit. “The hapless fate of an alleged spy,” Live Mint, 20 April 2017. http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/ U0eysVQGgTb9Z93Iiz9BlK/The-hapless-fate-of-an-alleged-spy.html

… Jadhav, formerly an officer in the Indian Navy, was apprehended by Pakistan in March 2016 and was accused of fomenting trouble in Balochistan. He was tried by a military court of Pakistan over the last three-four months. The Indian government was denied consular access to him. The military court sentenced Jadhav to death. He has 60 days to appeal to the Supreme Court and, in case of the verdict is upheld, an option for a mercy petition to the president of Pakistan. Four days before the death sentence was pronounced, a Pakistani colonel, Muhammad Habib Zahir, went missing from Nepal. In the past week, three more RAW (Research and Analysis Wing) agents have reportedly been picked up in Pakistan. …India would like to keep things quiet, as they (Pakistan) have not caught an agent working in Kashmir, a red flag for international observers, but one operating in the Baloch-Iran area…Pakistan’s main motive is to establish a moral equivalence with India by proving that India meddles in their country. If India is indeed behind the disappearance of Zahir and if it chooses to admit that, things could get interesting…

Transition in the Armed Forces of Kazakhstan - From Conscripts to Contract Soldiers by Matt Stein Kazakhstan’s Armed Forces have been working to modernize, reform and expand their capabilities since the state became independent in 1991. Much of the attention on this development has been on security cooperation with Russia, the United States and other partners, but there have also been internally driven efforts that could have just as significant an impact. One of these efforts over the past several years has been the increase in the number of professional contract soldiers in the Armed Forces, which is part of a plan to have contract soldiers make up 99 percent of the Armed Forces by the end 2016. While the result has yet to be announced, an examination of Kazakhstan’s effort to have its Armed Forces made up of contract soldiers will show how this effort has been progressing and the impact this could have on the capabilities of the country’s Armed Forces and on the Central Asian region. https://community.apan.org/wg/tradoc-g2/fmso/ Compendium of Central Asian Military and Security Activity By Matthew Stein Since Central Asian states gained independence in 1991, new regional military and security alliances have been created (some of which are Russian- led), new military partnerships with non-NATO countries have been established, a number of joint military exercises have been conducted, over a dozen high-profile incidents of violence and civil unrest have taken place, and military installations have been used by foreign militaries. While this activity gained attention, it has not been collectively compiled. A compilation of this activity can serve as a guide for current and future military and security involvement in Central Asia. https://community.apan.org/wg/tradoc-g2/fmso/

OE Watch | June 2017 38 CENTRAL ASIA, CAUCASUS Georgia’s “Strategic Defense Review” OE Watch Commentary: The accompanying excerpted article As to the new reserve system, it will consist of three from a Georgian source discusses the Georgian Ministry of Defense’s “ (MoD) recent publication of its “Strategic Defense Review.” While parts: army, territorial and specialists’ reserves…” it restates the well-known fact that the Georgian government views Russia as one of the main threats to its security and stability, it also discusses steps that the government plans to take to deal with this. In addition, the article highlights the Georgian MoD’s development priorities and planned structure for 2020, along with some changes in its strategic defense approach after the Russo-Georgian War of 2008.

The article notes that the Strategic Defense Review states “the main factor for planning national defense and security still remains the threat from the Russian Federation” and that “The Georgian MoD also expects continued Russian covert activities and soft power directed against Georgia…” The Georgian MoD is not the only ministry tasked with defense or security dealing with covert or soft power activities aimed at Georgia, but the document mentions a “total defense approach” and “names reserve and conscription as important elements of [it].”

In a meeting with the Georgian Parliament’s Defense and Security Committee in early April, Georgian Defense Minister Levan Izoria discussed reestablishing conscription and setting up a reserve system based on the armed forces of several European states. Last year Izoria’s predecessor abolished conscription in the MoD. The article mentions that the new reserve system “will consist of three parts: army, territorial and specialists’ reserves,” but it remains to be seen how this three part system would function and if it includes defending against covert or soft power Photo of Levan Izoria. Source : Andro Osadchev, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3ALevan_Izoria.jpg, CC BY-SA 4.0 activities. Source: Georgian MoD Adopts Strategic Defense Review for 2017-2020,” Civil.ge, 25 April The article points out that Georgia’s 2017. http://civil.ge/eng/article.php?id=30054 defense approach changed from its 2007 version of “capability-based methodology,” to On April 24 Georgia’s Ministry of Defense published its new Strategic Defense Review (SDR) a “threat-based methodology” following the document for 2017-2020. The document describes development priorities of the MoD and Georgian Armed Forces for the designated time period, as well as the armed forces’ planned Russo-Georgian War of 2008. It notes that structure by 2020…The previous two versions were adopted in 2007 and 2012. According to this is because Georgia still faces possible the 2017 document, the 2007 version used “capability-based methodology,” but the Russo- aggression by Russia. Georgian War of 2008 changed Georgia’s policy, with the 2012 document employing “threat- Lastly, the article discusses Georgian based methodology”…The 2017 document says that since Georgia is still facing possible defense spending and notes that “it will aggression by Russia, it also uses threat-based methodology… remain within 2% of the GDP.” This is worth SDR 2017-2020 states that for Georgia “the main factor for planning national defense noting alongside how the Strategic Defense and security still remains the threat from the Russian Federation,”…The Georgian MoD also Review includes a list of “new projects for expects continued Russian covert activities and soft power directed against Georgia in order the coming years that can be financed by to cause internal conflicts and achieve “controlled destabilization” in the country… the military budget, including: air defense, The SDR envisions the total defense principle to be adopted by the Georgian Armed reserve and mobilization system, transport Forces…The total defense approach also means “continuing resistance through both and attack helicopters, and anti-armor conventional and non-conventional means.” The document names reserve and conscription as capabilities.” Air defense in the Georgian important elements of the total defense concept… As to the new reserve system, it will consist Armed Forces has already received upgrades of three parts: army, territorial and specialists’ reserves… over the past several years and while the reserve force and anti-armor weapons Air defense is another component of the national defense system designated in the SDR could take out a portion of future defense as critically important. The document cites the war of 2008 as an example of inadequacy expenditures, the transport and attack of Georgia’s air defense and stresses the necessity to acquire modern capabilities in this helicopters will likely cost a considerable regard…The document authors do not expect serious changes in defense spending during the amount. It has been reported that Georgia’s reporting period, saying it will remain within 2% of the GDP. At the same time, the document attack helicopters are in need of major repairs lists the MoD’s new projects for the coming years that can be financed by the military budget, and upgrades and that the reason this has not including: air defense, reserve and mobilization system, transport and attack helicopters, and already taken place has been because of the anti-armor capabilities… cost. End OE Watch Commentary (Stein) OE Watch | June 2017 39 RUSSIA, UKRAINE Russia Establishes New Army Corps in the Arctic

OE Watch Commentary: In April, the Russian Federation “The Russian Ministry of Defense has deployed an established the 14th Army Corps in Murmansk. As explained in the accompanying article from Russian daily Izvestiya, the bulk of the army corps (OAK) in the Polar Region, which will new corps combat power will consist of the existing 80th Motorized accomplish missions in support of the Northern Fleet.” Rifle Brigade (Alakurtti) and 200th Motorized Rifle Brigade (Pechenga). The new corps will not gain any new maneuver Source: Aleksey Ramm and Yevgeniy Andreyev, “В brigades or divisions. Although the Russians are not adding any Мурманске формируется новое сухопутное объединение new maneuver units to the region, the combat power of existing units (A New Ground Combined Formation Is Being Formed in will likely significantly increase if the 14th Army Corps gains new Murmansk),” Izvestiya Online, 13 April 2017. http://izvestia. combat support and combat service support units. These enabling units ru/news/681638 (engineer, logistics, medical, etc) are important for all military units, but The Russian Ministry of Defense has deployed an army corps especially so for units operating in the Arctic, where most resources must (OAK) in the Polar Region, which will accomplish missions be shipped in and all support must be organically provided. in support of the Northern Fleet. The headquarters of the The establishment of the 14th Army Corps is a significant addition to new combined formation is located in Murmansk. The arctic Russian military capabilities in the Arctic, but it is by no means a return motorized rifle brigades, which are deployed on the Kola to the level of the Soviet military’s presence in the Arctic during the Peninsula, will be part of the army corps’ composition. In Cold War. In 1952, the Soviets formed the 6th Combined Arms Army the experts’ opinion, the new army corps will become a very (CAA) in Murmansk. (In 1960, the 6th headquarters was moved to important element of the defense of Russian interests in the Petrozavodsk.) The 6th CAA had subordinate divisions in Pechenga, Arctic Region. Murmansk, Alakurtti, and Sortavala, and a separate motorized rifle A Northern Fleet Headquarters spokesman told Izvestiya regiment in Ozerki. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, most that the formation of the new separate army corps has been maneuver units were downgraded to storage bases, and in 1998 the 6th proceeding since the beginning of this year. The recruitment CAA was disbanded. End OE Watch Commentary (Bartles) of servicemen is occurring right now – contract servicemen for the signals battalion. This military unit will provide the continuous exchange of information among the corps headquarters, subordinate units and subunits, and also the Northern Fleet command authorities and the General Staff. Two arctic motorized rifle brigades will be part of the separate army corps’ composition: 80th Motorized Rifle Brigade (the village of Alakurtti) and 200th Motorized Rifle Brigade (Pechenga). These unique military units are equipped with MT-LB combat vehicles with a high off-road capability, arctic prime movers, and other military vehicles, which operate effectively on the snow covered expanses of the Polar Region with a temperature below – 30 degrees. The personnel of the arctic motorized rifle brigades undergo special training. The soldiers know how to fight on skis, use reindeer and dog sleds, and to even build igloos (Eskimo dwellings made of snow). In the future, the separate army corps will be augmented by artillery, air defense weapons, reconnaissance units, and also by chemical, radiological, and biological defense subunits. “Arsenal of the Fatherland” Magazine Editor Viktor Murakhovskiy, a military expert, told Izvestiya that the formation of the new army corps on the Kola Peninsula was caused by the need to defend Russia’s interests in the Arctic. “NATO’s activity in the Arctic regions has greatly increased recently. We must also not forget that we border a NATO country – Norway – in the north,” Viktor Murakhovskiy explained. “Norwegian military personnel are very actively operating at sea and near the arctic islands. Of course, there are enormous territories in the Polar Region. But one army corps will be adequate in order to parry Arctic Region Source : CIA World Factbook, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=531491, Public Domain. emerging threats”.

OE Watch | June 2017 40 RUSSIA, UKRAINE New S-500 Will Increase Russian Anti-Satellite Capability

OE Watch Commentary: The Russian Federation believes space-based “...the S-500 will become an effective means of strategic missile defense.” capabilities (satellite communications; precision navigation and timing; and Source: Andrei Kots, “Зенитные ракеты комплекса С-500 оставят противника space-based intelligence, surveillance and без спутников (Air Defense Missiles of S-500 Complex Will Leave the Enemy reconnaissance) are essential for effective Without Satellites),” RIA Novosti Online, 24 April 2017. https://ria.ru/defense_ U.S. combat operations. Hence, it is pursuing safety/20170424/1493007070.html several lines of effort to disable, deny, and/or degrade these capabilities. These efforts include Almaz-Antey Aerospace Defense Concern General Designer Pavel Sozinov developing cyber, electronic warfare, and, as the revealed certain details of combat capabilities of the Russian S-500 advanced SAM accompanying article describes, anti-satellite system…”We forecasted the development of offensive aerospace weapons for the (ASAT) capabilities. next 25 years,” the general designer explained. “Our system must be able to combat those targets which still are absent today, but may appear. It is a matter of an The Russian Federation is currently developing intercept in layers of the atmosphere that are not dense, including upper layers of or fielding several ASAT capable systems. The the atmosphere a hundred kilometers from Earth.” Soviet Union first started experimenting with The S-400 Triumf is the most state-of-the-art Russian SAM as of today. Its ASAT capabilities in the early 1980s. The co- capabilities suffice for combating any existing aerodynamic targets -- aircraft, orbital Naryad “killer satellites” were equipped helicopters, unmanned aerial vehicles, and cruise missiles at ranges up to 400 with projectile launchers that could destroy other kilometers and at altitudes up to 30 kilometers. But missiles of the advanced S-500 satellites. Although the Naryad program was in fact will be able to engage targets in near space. discontinued, such technologies may be included with current and future on orbit assets. Other “It is obvious that the S-500 was conceived as a general-purpose air and missile Soviet and/or Russia ASAT endeavors include defense complex capable of combating the entire nomenclature of targets,” Igor ground-based explosively driven pulsed iodine Korotchenko, military expert and member of the Public Council under the Russian lasers; the A-60 aircraft mounted laser (a “Skif-D” Defense Ministry, told RIA Novosti. “At those altitudes about which Sozinov is laser mounted upon a Il-76MD transport plane); talking, its missiles will be able to engage warheads of intercontinental ballistic and ground and air-based direct ascent missiles. missiles in the terminal phase of their flight path. Thus, the S-500 will become an effective means of strategic missile defense.” In addition to systems specifically designed …In addition to ICBM warheads, the S-500 will be able to effectively combat to function as ASAT weapons, some Russian hypersonic targets, orbital platforms, and high-altitude UAV’s. By the way, the area ballistic missile defense systems (BMDS) also of application of the new system is not limited exclusively to missile and air defense have ASAT capabilities due to performance functions. The majority of military satellites operate in near space, specifically characteristics. Russia’s A-235 ‘Nudol’ BMDS at altitudes of around 100 kilometers. They support troops with communications, missiles also reportedly have a direct ascent ASAT navigation, and target designation. Destruction of an enemy satellite grouping capability. The accompanying article discusses will permit “blinding” and “deafening” his armed forces in the literal sense, the capabilities of the forthcoming S-500 missile depriving them of the advantage. To achieve these objectives, Russian armorers system. The S-500 is reportedly designed to are developing not only new air defense missiles, but also a family of advanced destroy ballistic missiles, high-altitude aircraft electronic warfare systems. and UAVs, hypersonic targets, and low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites. Although the S-500 has yet to “In accordance with instructions of the country’s leadership, we are conducting reach an initial operational capability, when fielded tests to accomplish the mission of countering space-based assets,” Sozinov it will significantly enhance Russia’s ability to emphasized. “This concerns capabilities of EW suppression of certain means destroy LEO communications and intelligence of location reconnaissance, electro-optical reconnaissance, and space-based surveillance and reconnaissance satellites. End communications as well as direct functional damage of those elements deployed in OE Watch Commentary (Bartles) orbit.”

The Adaptive Transformation of Yemen’s Republican Guard by Lucas Winter This paper presents an analytical summary of the Yemeni Republican Guard’s adaptation to changing conditions in Yemen following the 2011 resignation of Ali Abdullah Saleh. The Yemeni Republican Guard has effectively amalgamated with Huthi forces into a hybrid that pairs young, ideologically motivated foot soldiers with trained operators of heavy weaponry and ad- vanced equipment. This is similar in structure to successful fighting groups emerging from the battlefields of Syria and Iraq, and may provide a template for the type of forces that will define the region’s operational environment for years to come. https://community.apan.org/wg/tradoc-g2/fmso/

OE Watch | June 2017 41 RUSSIA, UKRAINE Russia Fielding First C2 System for Electronic Warfare Brigades Source: Aleksey Ramm, Dmitriy Litovkin, and Yevgeniy OE Watch Commentary: The Russian Ground Forces, and to a lesser extent Andreyev, “В войска радиоэлектронной борьбы придет Airborne (VDV) and naval infantry, have dedicated Electronic Warfare (EW) искусственный интеллект companies, battalions, and brigades. Russia’s largest and most powerful EW Система «Былина» сама найдет, опознает и задавит systems such as the Murmansk-BN, Krasukha, Leer-3, and Moskva, are found помехами радиолокаторы, средства связи и спутники in the Ground Forces’ EW brigades. EW brigades have capabilities to work противника (Troops Will Get Electronic Warfare at the tactical, operational, and arguably strategic levels. These capabilities Artificial Intelligence System: Bylina System Will include wide area cellular communications jamming, GPS location spoofing, Independently Find, Identify, and Suppress Enemy Radar, reconnaissance and communication satellite jamming, and disrupting early Communications, and Satellites),” Izvestiya Online, 4 April 2017. http://izvestia.ru/news/675891 warning aircraft such as the E-3 Sentry (AWACS). While EW companies (organic to the maneuver brigades) have dedicated EW C2 systems, such as the R-330K Mobile Automated Command Post, to provide command and control, In 2018 the Russian Defense Ministry will get a smart minimize interference with friendly assets, and communicate targeting data automated control system for managing electronic warfare (EW) brigades. The RB-109A Bylina analyzes (SIGINT/ELINT), until now EW brigades have had no such similar asset. in real-time the situation in the combat area, finds The accompanying article discusses the capabilities of Russia’s first brigade- and categorizes targets, chooses how to suppress level EW C2 system, the RB-109A ‘Bylina’. In addition to the aforementioned them, and issues orders to EW stations. The Bylina capabilities of company-level EW C2 systems, the RB-109A also reportedly has prevents “ jammers” from “suppressing” and distorting an artificial intelligence capability which automates C2 duties. Presumably, (“spoiling”) signals from its own troops’ electronic this artificial intelligence is some sort of a more advanced technology, as the equipment. According to experts, the new system term ‘automated’ [автоматизированный] is often used to describe Russian resembles artificial intelligence in its capabilities. As systems, but the RB-109A is specifically mentioned to have ‘artificial intelligence’ Izvestiya was informed by the Main Staff of the Ground [искусственный интеллект]. The accompanying article also shares an Troops, the first Bylina’s should reach the troops in 2018. And by 2025 it is planned to equip all EW brigades with interesting tidbit about Russian EW force structure, as each EW brigade it. reportedly consists of four battalions and one separate company. End OE Watch Commentary (Bartles) The RB-109A is a fully autonomous system. It includes five all-terrain trucks as well as life support equipment. After deployment, the system automatically interfaces with battalion and company command posts, senior “In 2018 the Russian Defense Ministry will get commanders, and even individual EW stations. Information a smart automated control system for managing exchange and command and control take place in real time. The brigade headquarters officers and Bylina operators electronic warfare (EW) brigades.” only need to monitor the operation of the automated control system. The RB-109A takes only seconds to independently select and identify targets (radio stations, communication systems, radars, long-range radar aircraft, satellites). After which it decides how to more effectively suppress the enemy and chooses the most appropriate jamming stations for that. Then it specifies the sequence of actions and monitors their operation. The state-of-the-art automated control system also “sees” the EW devices of its own troops. So it suppresses targets without impacting on its own… Currently every military district has an EW brigade while the fleets have separate EW centers. The staff structure of these military units is quite complicated. Each brigade consists of four battalions and one company. Their role is to suppress aviation, communication systems and command and control, and space vehicles at distances of hundreds of kilometers. Brigade subunits can also very accurately get a fix on and suppress even low-power individual radio sets used by saboteurs, swamp and intercept cellular communication signals and, in addition, incapacitate Leer-2 mobile complexes received by EW units of the Russian military base in Abkhazia. Source : Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation, http://eng.mil.ru/en/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12123417@egNews, CC 4.0 satellite navigation systems…

OE Watch | June 2017 42 RUSSIA, UKRAINE A Russian Leader to Watch OE Watch Commentary: Despite economic challenges, military Source: “Cергей Шойгу: человек с сибирским характером (Sergey reform and readiness remain key Kremlin priorities. As Minister of Defense, Sergey Shoygu has been at the helm of leading and Shoygu: Man of Siberian Character),” Moskovskiy Komsomolets, 17 developing the armed forces. On his 26th anniversary of becoming April 2017. www.mk.ru/politics/2017/04/16/sergey-shoygu-chelovek-s- a Russian government official, the popular daily newspaper sibirskim-kharakterom.html Moskovskiy Komsomolets, published an article praising Shoygu’s many contributions to his country. The tribute suggests that he is an Twenty-six years ago, on 17 April 1991, when Sergey Shoygu was put influential figure to watch in Russia. in charge of the State Committee for Civil Defense (which subsequently became the Ministry of Emergencies), no one had an inkling even that The article points out that Shoygu was born into “an ordinary so many tests would fall to the lot of the 35-year-old Siberian. The Soviet family” in far off Tyva, where he was trained as an engineer, and “directed the construction of the Sayansk Aluminum Plant.” His young construction worker would have to extinguish armed conflicts, achievements in Siberia caught the attention of officials in Moscow, clean up in the aftermath of natural disasters, and rescue people in and in 1991 was “invited to take charge of the fledgling Russian areas of humanitarian catastrophes and, as of late, direct unique Rescue Personnel Corps.” The article describes how Shoygu built military operations thousands of kilometers from Russia…. the new Ministry of Emergencies from “ничего” [nothing] to where Sergey Shoygu was born in Tyva, to an ordinary Soviet family…. After it quickly became “one of the world’s most powerful departments of graduating from the Krasnoyarsk Polytechnic, the young construction rescue personnel with its own aviation, robotics, and institutions of engineer worked at key Siberian construction projects…. In the mid- higher learning.” 1980s, when he directed the construction of the Sayansk Aluminum Plant… Moscow noticed the young and energetic manager and offered The article describes the role that Shoygu played as Minister him the post of deputy chairman of the [Russian Federation] State of Emergencies, in helping to resolve many of the disputes which Committee for Architecture and Construction. Unaccustomed to office erupted after the collapse of the USSR, including “the Ossetian- work, Shoygu found the new position irksome and was about to go back Ingush conflict, the Georgian-Abkhazian war, the civil war in to Siberian construction projects, but he was unexpectedly invited to Tajikistan, the combat operations in Chechnya, and the Transnistria take charge of the fledgling Russian Rescue Personnel Corps…. conflict.” The article points out that Shoygu was directly involved in helping secure the release of Russian hostages during the Tajik Civil Many years later he jokes that the sole asset of the new body at that War in 1995. During the summer of 1996, when Grozny (Chechnya) time was the edict on his appointment: “And so I was on the street, a was mired in violence, the Emergency Services “sought out the paper folder in my hand, and in it, the edict on my appointment. That peaceful population in basements, evacuated the wounded and the was it, I had to start to do something. There was nothing -- neither sick, and distributed food, warm clothing, and medicines.” premises nor checking account, no-th-ing.” …And by the end of the 1990s the Ministry of Emergencies under his leadership had become The article concludes by recounting many of the achievements one of the world’s most powerful departments of rescue personnel with Shoygu has made since becoming Minister of Defense in November its own aviation, robotics, and institutions of higher learning…. 2012, which “could be described endlessly.” Simply put, “Shoygu literally forced the Russian military to believe in itself,” and has In its time of operation Shoygu’s team negotiated all the “trouble “restored to our country pride in its army.” Russian presidential spots” on the post-Soviet territory -- the Ossetian-Ingush conflict, elections are scheduled for March 2018, and while the incumbent the Georgian-Abkhazian war, the civil war in Tajikistan, the combat has yet to officially announce his candidacy, the conventional operations in Chechnya, and the Transnistria conflict. wisdom suggests that Vladimir Putin will remain in charge. Should In 1995 in Tajikistan Shoygu evacuated the Russian-speaking he decide, however, to step down and make room for a new leader, population, which was fleeing the rebels’ persecution…. Sergey articles such as this one published in Moskovskiy Komsomolets, Shoygu himself, who was able to come to terms with the rebels on the could certainly help to convince the electorate to consider Sergey release of the women and children, and then of the other hostages Shoygu. End OE Watch Commentary (Finch) also…Many people remember today that fire in the ravaged Groznyy “Shoygu literally forced the Russian military to of 1996 we cease as soon as it was reported that Shoygu’s white armored personnel carrier was driving through the streets. … Shoygu’s believe in itself…” people sought out the peaceful population in basements, evacuated the wounded and the sick, and distributed food, warm clothing, and medicines…. …As early as November [2012] he once again by decision of President Vladimir Putin donned the uniform, assuming the office of defense minister. The breadth of his achievements in this office could be described endlessly. But it would be most correct to say briefly that he restored to our country pride in its army…. Shoygu literally forced the Russian military to believe in itself… So what constitutes the Shoygu phenomenon? Responsibility, firmness of purpose, determination, and the ability to unite people and secure a result and also the splendid sense of humor that many people have. But in the case of Shoygu there has in this palette to be one further Russian Defense Minister, Sergey Shoygu. important ingredient -- an inexhaustible desire to serve his country. Source : http://structure.mil.ru/management/minister/photo/port.htm CC By 4.0

OE Watch | June 2017 43 RUSSIA, UKRAINE Insourcing Military Utilities and Housing OE Watch Commentary: Seven years ago, one of the key reforms initiated under former Defense “From the first days of its existence, the outsourcing model has Minister Serdyukov dealt with outsourcing non- been leading consistently to negative performance indicators and military functions to various commercial enterprises, particularly housing and public utilities. It was to the presence of debts to resource providers and regions of the presumed that such reforms would better allow Russian Federation…” the armed forces to focus on military tasks, while reducing the likelihood of high-level corruption Source: Aleksandra Dzhordzhevich, Ivan Safronov, and Tatyana Dyatel, associated with these commercial operations. “Сергей Шойгу начал новую реформу ЖКХ (Sergey Shoygu Began a New Although these reforms may have encouraged the Reform of Housing and Public Utilities),” Kommersant Online, 3 April 2017. military to place greater attention on its core mission, http://www.kommersant.ru/doc/3260539 the potential for fraud has remained a problem (Serdyukov was removed in 2012 over allegations Kommersant has learned that the RF [Russian Federation] Defense related to corruption in the outsourcing sphere). Ministry decided to carry out a reform of departmental ZhKKh [housing and According to an article in the centrist-news source, public utilities], the meaning of which reduces to rejection of outsourcing Kommersant, the Defense Ministry has recently and transition to direct contracts with suppliers. The new system is being decided to reject “outsourcing and transition to direct constructed around a specially established “Housing and Public Utility Services contracts with suppliers” with regard to housing and Fund” FGBU [Federal State Budgetary Institution], which already has assumed public utilities. functions of certain Garnizon Holding Company subunits. The military believes this will increase control over expenditures and reduce corruption considerably. The justification for this change sounds familiar, as At the same time, the question of debts to supply organizations which companies “the military believes this will increase control over subordinate to the Defense Ministry have accumulated since 2009 has not yet expenditures and reduce corruption considerably.” been resolved once and for all. Apparently, the commercial structures established Defense Minister Sergey Shoygu sent President Vladimir Putin a letter “ for under Serdyukov to handle housing and public your attention” “On Increasing the Efficiency of Garnizon AO [Joint-Stock utilities have not proven to be any more effective Company] Holding Company”… “From the first days of its existence, the or cost efficient. As the article points out, the outsourcing model has been leading consistently to negative performance Ministry of Defense has now re-consolidated these indicators and to the presence of debts to resource providers and regions of functions under one entity and returned “to direct the Russian Federation,” the Minister writes, adding that the system at hand settlements with energy suppliers to exclude the “demands constant administrative intervention of military command and chain of intermediaries.” According to Minister of control entities in matters of accident-free servicing of ZhKKh.” In order to Defense Shoygu, these new “approaches will permit go over to direct settlements with energy suppliers and exclude the chain of increasing control over expenditure of funds in the intermediaries, the military decided to establish a separate FGBU, rejecting sphere of ZhKKh [housing and public utilities] and outsourcing de facto. Shoygu asserts that “implementing those approaches will getting them to end recipients, as well as excluding permit increasing control over expenditure of funds in the sphere of ZhKKh commercialization of the work of Defense Ministry and getting them to end recipients, as well as excluding commercialization of subunits and significantly lowering the corruption the work of Defense Ministry subunits and significantly lowering the corruption element.” element.” He clarifies that tenders will be conducted if specialized utility Although the Defense Ministry has reassumed direct organizations must be involved…. control over housing and public utility operations and The main issue involves debts of companies subordinate to the Defense payments, the question of previous incurred debts Ministry. Thus, at a government conference in early February with the has yet to be resolved. The article points out that the participation of vice premiers Dmitriy Kozak and Arkadiy Dvorkovich, Deputy “overall debts of Defense Ministry organizations to Defense Minister for Rear Services Dmitriy Bulgakov stated that overall debts utility providers is around R29 billion” [$50 million], of Defense Ministry organizations to utility providers is around R29 billion. The but that “the military does not recognize these military does not recognize these debts, however, and will be in no hurry to pay debts…and will be in no hurry to pay them.” The them… Russian government does “not share that position of By the way, the [Russian] White House did not share that position of the the military,” and has directed the Defense Ministry military. According to Kommersant information, on 22 February the Defense to repay these debts. The Kremlin leadership has Ministry was ordered to take steps to prevent indebtedness for public utility invested considerable resources into strengthening services (resources) supplied for Defense Ministry needs, and to pay utility the military and continues to search for the optimal providers the existing indebtedness of companies subordinate to the Defense model for managing these funds. End OE Watch Ministry for previously supplied public utility services (resources)…. Commentary (Finch)

OE Watch | June 2017 44 RUSSIA, UKRAINE Crisis of Trust over Afghanistan

OE Watch Commentary: For the past six years, the Russian Ministry of Defense has hosted the Moscow “The refusal of US and NATO representatives to take part in Conference on International Security, a forum where senior Russian political and military officials share their the International Security Conference, ...[a] forum held under perspective on topics related to international security. Moscow’s aegis, was a new indication of the growing crisis of As the accompanying excerpt from the relatively- independent Russian news source Kommersant points trust between Russia and the US over Afghanistan.” out, one of the key topics at this year’s conference (26-27 April) was the deteriorating situation in Afghanistan. As Source: Sergey Strokan, Maksim Yusin, Aleksandra Dzhorzhevich, the excerpt demonstrates, and not surprisingly, senior Russian “Афганская война слов Россия и США не поделили безопасность в officials used this opportunity to criticize US/NATO operations Центральной Азии (Afghan War of Words. Russia and the United States in that country. Are Not Sharing Security in Central Asia),” Kommersant Online, 28 April 2017. https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/3283490 The excerpt begins with the comments of …The war of words between Moscow and Washington which broke “Sergey Naryshkin, out following the US military’s employment in Afghanistan of the super- head of the Foreign powerful bomb and the accusation against Russia of its secretly supplying Intelligence Service weapons to the Taliban was a central topic of the Sixth International (SVR)” who asserted Security Conference which concluded yesterday in Moscow. The that “the Pentagon’s numerous strongly-worded statements of Russian representatives prior to recent employment the closing of the forum were summed up by Sergey Naryshkin, head of in Afghanistan of the the SVR of Russia, who confirmed the existence of serious disagreements super-powerful ‘mother between Moscow and the new US Administration over the Afghan conflict. of all bombs’” was “a Touching on the US military’s employment in Afghanistan of the “mother wholly uncoordinated of all bombs,” which, the Pentagon says, was designed to strike at rebels show of strength.” of the Islamic State contingent (ISIL), Mr Naryshkin expressed doubt that The excerpt goes on Map of Afghanistan. this action would achieve its declared aims. “All that we have thus far Source : CIA.gov. https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:CIA_map_ to include a statement of_Afghanistan_in_2007.gif Public Domain observed in Afghanistan are instances of a wholly uncoordinated show of from Russian Foreign strength like the detonation of the super-powerful bomb,” he said. Minister Sergey Lavrov, who “accused the US military of In turn, Sergey Lavrov, head of the RF Foreign Ministry, who opened ‘spreading false unprofessional statements,’ countering the the Moscow conference, accused the US military of “the spread of false accusations addressed to Moscow of its allegedly secretly unprofessional statements,” countering the accusations addressed to supplying weapons to the Taliban.” He was followed by Igor Moscow of its allegedly secretly supplying weapons to the Taliban. Korobov, chief of the RF General Staff Main Intelligence Igor Korobov, chief of the RF General Staff Main Intelligence Directorate Directorate, who reproached the Americans for failing to defeat (GRU), accused the Americans in his speech of simply not having defeated the terrorists in Afghanistan, despite fighting “in this country the terrorists in Afghanistan and, while in this country for many years, for many years.” The article also quotes Korobov as suggesting “having left the Afghans to face difficult domestic political problems, a that the Americans and its allies were at fault for leaving “the ravaged economy, an undeveloped social sphere, and a manifold growth Afghan Government to confront the extremists on its own.” of drug trafficking.”… Igor Korobov reproached the Americans and their The article bemoans “the refusal of US and NATO allies here for the fact that “declaring how dangerous it is to leave the representatives to take part in the International Security Afghan Government to confront the extremists on its own, they are taking Conference,” and that instead of being an area of mutual action to maintain their military presence… cooperation, Afghanistan “is once again coming to be a …The refusal of US and NATO representatives to take part in the principal irritant in the relations of the two superpowers.” International Security Conference, one further forum held under The article concludes on a pessimistic note, claiming that Moscow’s aegis, was a new indication of the growing crisis of trust “the refusal of US and NATO representatives to take part in between Russia and the US over Afghanistan. The conflict in this country, the International Security Conference, ...[a] forum held under which at the start of the 2000s brought Russia and the United States closer Moscow’s aegis, was a new indication of the growing crisis of together and forced them to act as ad hoc allies, is once again coming to trust between Russia and the US over Afghanistan.” End OE be a principal irritant in the relations of the two superpowers. Watch Commentary (Finch)

(Key speeches at 2017 MCIS can be found here: http://mil.ru/ mcis/appearance.htm)

OE Watch | June 2017 45 RUSSIA, UKRAINE No Need to Fear the Spring Draft OE Watch Commentary: Russia remains in the midst of its Spring conscript campaign, “…At the words ‘draft notice’ and ‘military commissariat’ the which as the accompanying excerpt from the young men’s mothers start taking sedatives. And for absolutely no government newspaper Rossiyskaya Gazeta, points out, runs from “1 April through 15 July.” reason.” The campaign will augment “142,000 young Source: Igor Yelkov, “Новации весеннего призыва в армию: что нужно знать men” into “the ranks of the Armed Forces, призывнику и его родителям (Innovations to the Spring Draft Into the Army: What the Rosgvardiya [Federal Service of National Guard Conscript and His Parents Need To Know),” Rossiyskaya Gazeta, 12 April 2017. https:// Troops], the MChS [Ministry for Affairs of Civil rg.ru/2017/04/12/chto-nuzhno-znat-prizyvniku-i-ego-roditeliam.html Defense, Emergency Situations, and Elimination of Natural Disasters], and the special services.” Over the course of 106 days, 1 April through 15 July, the ranks of the Armed Forces, Rosgvardiya [Federal Service of National Guard Troops], the MChS [Ministry for Affairs The article is designed to allay the fears of of Civil Defense, Emergency Situations, and Elimination of Natural Disasters], and the prospective conscripts, stressing the fact that special services will be augmented by 142,000 young men…. the quality of military service has improved and that there are many more conscripts than actual …At the words “draft notice” and “military commissariat” the young men’s mothers billets. For instance, it points out that “5,000 start taking sedatives. And for absolutely no reason. young men in Kaluzhskaya Oblast will receive Getting into the army is no simple matter today. For example: 5,000 young men in their draft notice this spring. But just 1,000 will Kaluzhskaya Oblast will receive their draft notice this spring. But just 1,000 will be be dispatched to the barracks.” The situation dispatched to the barracks….And even this is not the toughest selection. In Makhachkala, is even more selective in Dagestan, where 12,000 will attend the board at the military commissariat, but only 480 of these will be “12,000 will attend the board at the military picked to serve. That’s where the competition is so competitive…. commissariat, but only 480 of these will be …This spring hundreds of thousands of young guys in the 18-27 age range will be picked to serve.” attending the boards at the military commissariats. But only 142,000 are to serve the Motherland. The article reminds young men that there are serious penalties for those who attempt to evade …Naturally enough, both for themselves and their parents this is very stressful. But two the draft, where the punishment ranges from circumstances ought to reassure you a little at the very least. First, the army has changed, fines “up to R200,000 [$3500] …, forced labor the hazing problem is not as acute as it was…. And second -- and this is the main thing (up to two years), arrest (up to six months), or -- being drafted into the army is not a bonus package giving entry to a fitness club or prison (up to two years).” It also points out that a paintball team…. You have to serve simply because it’s the law. Evasion of service is draft evaders will no longer be able to “request punishable in monetary terms (up to R200,000 or 18 months’ salary), forced labor (up to a military service card” upon reaching the age two years), arrest (up to six months), or prison (up to two years). of 27. Legislation has changed, and now these Performing compulsory service is also useful for your future career. In the old days, draft-dodgers will instead be issued a certificate after “evading service” until the age of 27, a young man would turn up at the military which states that the individual “evaded the commissariat with his lawyer and blithely request a military service card. This routine draft without lawful grounds for doing so.” Such won’t work anymore. At the age of 27 those individuals who do not have valid reasons for documentation will prevent a young man from not serving will be issued not with a military service card but a certificate: evaded the getting “a job with the state service or in the draft without lawful grounds for doing so. You’ll find out what this means when you decide security structures.” to get a job with the state service or in the security structures. You’ll be shown the door. To dispel other anxieties regarding conscript …Let me give a couple of pieces of advice…. In the army it’s difficult to get accustomed duty, the article suggests that “the hazing problem to reveille at 7 o’clock in the morning. But the draft has only just begun. Get up a little is not as acute as it was,” and that today’s draftees earlier, do some “army” calisthenics… -- believe me, it’ll make it easier in the barracks. are provided with sufficient rations and other Most fathers and grandfathers of today’s conscripts would be in shock at the current necessities-even while traveling. To prepare for conditions of service. In their time, conscripts in transit to their units would eat what the rigors of military service, potential draftees, they had brought along with them from home. And they couldn’t have imagined that while should “get accustomed to reveille at 7 o’clock in traveling to their service location their sons and grandsons would be fed…in a restaurant the morning,” and “do some army calisthenics” car! Not to mention the army providing buffet-style meals….The drafted man receives a before induction. The article concludes by SIM card and a travel bag containing 18 personal hygiene items, including shower gel and describing the pay for conscript soldiers (2,000 hand cream. A bank card is registered in the name of each individual. rubles or $35 per month). Not surprisingly, the Forget the terms “pay” and “salary.” There are only monetary allowances in the army. article makes no mention of possibly being For the compulsory-term soldier this allowance starts at 2,000 [rubles]…. involved in an armed conflict. End OE Watch Commentary (Finch) OE Watch | June 2017 46 RUSSIA, UKRAINE Winning Over Hearts and Minds in SE Ukraine OE Watch Commentary: Kremlin official sources continue to deny that Russia has been providing military “Despite their clumsiness, their propaganda methods support to the separatist enclaves in southeast Ukraine, are effective…” or that they have a vested interest in destabilizing the current Ukrainian government. They claim that Source: Maksim Butchenko, “Обработка населения. Как работает пропаганда Russia remains committed to the Minsk II agreement, в ‘ЛНР/ДНР’ (Indoctrination of the Population. How Propaganda Works in the particularly the key point, which implies that these ‘LNR/DNR’),” Novoye Vremya Online, 14 April 2017. http://nv.ua/ukraine/events/ separatist regions will remain part of the Ukrainian obrabotka-naselenija-kak-rabotaet-propaganda-v-lnr-dnr-973815.html state-albeit with a “special status.” Kremlin actions, Russia’s propaganda machine launched in occupied Donbass is slowly but surely however, tell a different story. turning our fellow citizens living there into people who feel that they are not Over the past year, the Kremlin has integrated these Ukrainians and not even Russians but citizens of the so-called LPR-DPR (Luhansk separatist regions into the ruble zone and have recognized People’s Republic-Donetsk People’s Republic)…. the passports issued by local separatist governments in …In 2014-15, local media laid emphasis on hostilities and casualties among Donetsk and Luhansk. Russian officials assert that these civilians. Now they are writing that a radiant future is being built in areas moves were designed to alleviate the sufferings of the uncontrolled by Ukraine. “After Russia recognized LDPR passports, they local people. Kremlin-supported Russian media continue launched a campaign about the republics’ common past with the Russians, radiant to argue that these separatist regions will one day become future and prosperity,” Vasin said. part of Russia. As the accompanying excerpt from a Novoye Vremya’s sources say that the propaganda machine seeks to change the Ukrainian source points out, the Kremlin has also heavily consciousness of residents in occupied Donbass. With direct assistance from the invested in propaganda to win over the hearts and minds Kremlin, the chieftains of the self-proclaimed republics have managed to build an of the people living in these separatist regions. efficient system for brainwashing the population through the media. The emphasis The article describes how the propaganda campaign in is primarily on local media. In addition to Russian media, there are local TV the Donbas region focuses on “the republics’ common channels and newspapers. New online media outlets and radio stations have been past with the Russians, radiant future and prosperity.” set up. Note that none of the occupiers’ media has allowed itself a hint of criticism To achieve this goal, the authorities have adopted a against the “government”. multi-vector approach. In schools, “senior students ....They level all their criticism against Ukraine and the West, harping on the undergo basic military training, with militants coming to same point that, allegedly, life is getting ever worse there….Local journalists and primary school classes to tell how they fought ‘for [the] all kinds of propagandists are working under vigilant surveillance of Russian homeland.’” The primary propaganda focus has been with supervisors. Every week, they receive updated orders on what news to cover and local media where “new online media outlets and radio how… stations have been set up.” These new media sources “Despite their clumsiness, their propaganda methods are effective,” are not only funded by the Kremlin (approximately $1 Dikhtyarenko said, shrugging his shoulders….Meanwhile experts emphasize that million per quarter) but are also “working under vigilant local media are controlled by the Russian side…. surveillance of Russian supervisors. Every week, they In early March, the Security Service of Ukraine [SBU] published a report about receive updated orders on what news to cover and how.” Russia funding the media in the LPR. Analysts of Ukraine’s special services According to the article, this media “levels all their even specified the amounts. According to their data, the quarterly budget of the criticism against Ukraine and the West,” not “allowing “republic’s” propagandists is about 30m rubles (13,600,000 Ukrainian hryvnyas) itself a hint of criticism against the local ‘government.’” [over 500,000 dollars]. While most poll data from the region should be Now that three years has elapsed the situation looks as follows: Russian TV regarded with some skepticism, the article suggests that channels account for about 80 per cent of all broadcasting and local ones for the the propaganda campaign has indeed hardened local remaining 20 per cent…. “Local propaganda is more aggressive, persistent and views toward Kiev and improved how people living one-sided,” said Makiyivka resident Vasin…. in these separatist regions perceive their local leaders … “I have been monitoring the media of the DPR and the LPR for three years and Russia. According to one survey, “43 per cent of and I have not seen a single critical report about the republics’ authorities. There residents of the self-proclaimed republics are sure that is all-out propaganda and no journalism at all,” Harmash said. the readiness of the militants who seized power there are much more eager to heed fellow citizens’ opinions …However, sociologists say that even such propaganda does work. According than in Ukraine. Moreover, almost one-third of residents to an IFAK [an independent research institute] survey, 43 per cent of residents in the uncontrolled part of Donetsk Region are afraid of the self-proclaimed republics are sure that the readiness of the militants who to get back under Ukrainian control.” A Ukrainian seized power there are much more eager to heed fellow citizens’ opinions than journalist summed up, that “despite their clumsiness, in Ukraine. Moreover, almost one-third of residents in the uncontrolled part of their propaganda methods are effective.” End OE Watch Donetsk Region are afraid to get back under Ukrainian control. Commentary (Finch)

OE Watch | June 2017 47 RUSSIA, UKRAINE Arctic Air Defense Interview

Source: Olga Vorobyeva, “Небо над Арктикой (The Sky over the Arctic),” Krasnaya Zvezda, 10 April 2017. http://redstar.ru/index.php/ newspaper/item/32791-nebo-nad-arktikoj

OE Watch Commentary: The “[Vorobyeva] Sergey Yuryevich, your air defense formation is one of the largest in Russia. expansion of the First Air Defense What is its area of responsibility? Division represents an improvement [Moskvichev] It covers nearly two million square kilometers. Precisely we monitor the in command and control and a air situation from the border with Finland to the village of Tiksi in Yakutia. Our subunits strengthening of Russia’s northern border are deployed in five Russian Federation points: Murmansk and Arkhangelsk oblasts, the defenses. The division’s weapons are Republic of Saki (Yakutia), the Nenets Autonomous Okrug, and Krasnoyarsk Kray. The First modern, mostly S-400, S-300 and Pantsir Air Defense Division covers that northern territory along the length. A significant increase mobile systems. As the accompanying of the area of responsibility occurred after the resumption of Russia’s military presence in the passage from an interview with the Arctic. Commander of this Division discusses, [Vorobyeva] How far have the PVO men and equipment advanced into the Arctic? new units of S-400 Triumf (NATO SA-21 Growler) are being incorporated into the [Moskvichev] The division defends the Russian Federation’s air borders not only in the Polar division. The mobile S-400 employs four Region but also in the Arctic. Already for the second year our military subunits are deployed different missiles (very-long-range-400 on Alexandra Land (the Franz Josef Land Archipelago), in the village of Rogachevo (Novaya km, long-range-250 km, medium- Zemlya), on Sredniy Island (Severnaya Zemlya Archipelago) and in the village of Tiksi (Republic of Saki). The air defense forces have also been included in the composition of the range-120 km and short-range-40 km). separate arctic grouping on Kotelnyy Island (the Novosibirsk Islands). Each transporter-erector-launcher (TEL) carries four missiles and can be rapidly The largest military formation is located on Novaya Zemlya: an air defense missile reloaded by a support vehicle. End OE regiment under the command of Colonel Nikolay Savosin has been on alert in the village of Watch Commentary (Grau) Rogachevo since 2015. The regiment is equipped with the S-300PM modernized air defense missile system. Four of our radar sites are located at the other locations I mentioned and are completely equipped with necessary weapons and military equipment. We are deployed on Franz Josef Land which is 800 kilometers from the North Pole. The construction of the most state-of-the-art administrative-housing complex is being completed there right now. This is a very massive engineering project, which will be put into operation soon. [Vorobyeva] Is it difficult to command and control such a far-flung division? [Moskvichev] The command and control of the units is carried out from the “The First Air Defense Division, which Northern Fleet main base – the city of Severomorsk. Space communications celebrated its 60th anniversary this year, systems permit all of the subunits to be in constant contact and to report on the air situation immediately. The command and control algorithm has been defends the sky of our North. Division developed, and complications are caused only by the differences in the time Commander Major-General Sergei zones: we have a time difference of four hours with Sredniy Island and six hours with the village of Tiksi. It is understood that our closest attention is being paid Moskvichev discussed the distinctive to the Arctic Sector right now. We are responsible to insure that our subunits in features of service in the Arctic and the the Arctic are always provided with fresh fruit and vegetables and other food and that they receive proper medical services. The rotation of personnel, as Polar Region in an interview.” well as leave and temporary duty assignments are under special control. At the center of our attention is maintaining necessary combat readiness in our units and subunits. Representatives of the command authorities of the Northern Fleet and the 45th Air Force and Air Defense Army, of which we are a part, regularly conduct flights to the Arctic islands, as does the division. We monitor the activities of the subunits on-site. We pay special attention to the resolution of morale issues. [Vorobyeva] How is the upgrading of the division’s units proceeding? [Moskvichev] An S-400 complex has been deployed on the Kola Peninsula since 2015. That same air defense missile complex will go on alert in Arkhangelsk Oblast this year, and one more will go on alert on the Kola Peninsula. This is the most powerful air defense weapon in the world and is capable of detecting a target at a range of 400 kilometers and of destroying it. The upgrading is proceeding a full speed both in the air defense missile troops and also at the radio-technical units. The latter are receiving new radar, which operate within a broad spectrum of ranges and are highly accurate. We plan to upgrade all units with the latest equipment by 2020. [Vorobyeva] What would you wish to the servicemen on Air Defense Troops Day [9 April]? [Moskvichev] I wish everyone unrelenting combat improvement, successes in the mastery of their specialties, good health and family well- being. Let there always be a peaceful sky above our heads.

OE Watch | June 2017 48 RUSSIA, UKRAINE The Nature of Threats to Russia’s Western Sector and How to Address Them

OE Watch Commentary: In a 2015 Source: A. A. Sidorov, “The Nature of Threats to the Military Security of the Russian Federation issue of the Journal of the Academy of on its Western Strategic Sector and Methods to Confront them in Collaboration with the Joint Military Science Colonel General A. Strategic Command of the Northern Fleet,” The Journal of the Academy of Military Science (a A. Sidorov wrote an analysis of threats quarterly journal of the Academy on military affairs), No. 2 2015, pp. 40-42. to Russia from the Western Strategic Russia’s military and political situation in the Western strategic sector is very dynamic, direction. His analysis is important, for complicated, and confusing due to the processes occurring on the European continent and this fall the Western Sector will host due to the attempts by the United States to retain its leadership role using the resources of the huge exercise Zapad-2017 opposite its European allies. Analyzing activities of the U.S. and western nations, we can see that the the borders of concerned neighbors (the first stage of a hybrid war is being waged against Russia. It is characterized by deliberately Baltics, Ukraine, etc.). It will be of interest destabilizing Russia’s internal political situation through political and economic means using to watch Russia’s approach to the threats international and European bodies. he postulates. The accompanying excerpts from Sidorov’s analysis highlight six of his In order to counteract threats to Russian military security, the Russian Armed Forces of the many points. Western Military District and the Northern Fleet in Peacetime conduct integrated strategic deterrence activities in the air, under and on the sea, on land, and in space… Sidorov claims that the West is In order to disorganize the command and control systems and weapons of foreign armed forces deliberately destabilizing Russia’s it is possible to use the electronic warfare forces and means of the Western military district internal political situation via political and Northern Fleet strategic command to perform countermeasures against the command and economic means; an information systems of foreign armed forces by: performing surveillance and jamming signals in the campaign has been taking place in the short wave range, thereby covering forces from any aerial radar surveillance and precision region, designed to sow anti-Russian air strikes against command centers; jamming receiver equipment for all users of space sentiments; the Western Military District navigation systems of foreign governments; covering up activities of bombers and fighter jets and Northern Fleet, in peacetime, from detection by long-range aerial radar surveillance and command units; forces of the Baltic have conducted an integrated strategic Fleet, when completing measures of strategic deterrence, decide on the missions and forms of deterrence campaign to counteract these combat, such as the conduct of operational surveillance; guarding and defending Russian state threats. Provisions are made for defending borders both under the sea and in the air (in Kaliningrad area, a separate air defense region); against air and missile strikes and the following foreign aircraft that perform surveillance along the Russian state borders and over the destruction of enemy air assets aimed Baltic Sea; direct observation of U.S. Navy ships that carry anti-aircraft weapons and long- against targets deep in the European part range sea-based ; escorting long-range patrol flights; conducting information of Russia; the elimination of weapons countermeasures; and securing sea navigation in accordance with Russia’s international located deep in the European part of agreements. Russia; and the destruction of opposing forces and the localization of conflict During the actual preparation for hostilities and the repulsion of aggression, provisions are under circumstances favorable to Russia. made for…the elimination of aerially-launched weapons against targets located deep in the As the excerpted passage notes, he also European part of Russia. The dynamics of the military and political situation set forth stringent accuses the West of stirring up trouble requirements for combat and mobilization readiness. The dynamics of the military and political in the area via the use of hybrid warfare situation set forth stringent requirements for combat and mobilization readiness. methods against Russia. End OE Watch Commentary (Thomas)

“Russia’s military and political situation in the Western strategic sector is very dynamic, complicated, and confusing due to the processes occurring on the European continent and due to the attempts by the United States to retain its leadership role using the resources of its European allies. Analyzing activities of the U.S. and western nations, we can see that the first stage of a hybrid war is being waged against Russia. It is characterized by deliberately destabilizing Russia’s internal political situation through political and economic means using international and European bodies.”

OE Watch | June 2017 49 SPECIAL ESSAY By Karen Kaya The views expressed are those of the author and do not represent the official policy or position of the Department of the Army, Department of Defense, or the US Government. SPECIAL ESSAY Trends in the Turkish Military Industry

As the 16th largest economy in the world and a regional power would be a rapid reaction force, with global reach and sensitive en- with the second largest army in NATO, Turkey has initiated various gagement capabilities.7 One of the central pieces of the ‘Force 2020’ vi- national military and defense projects in recent years. These include sion is the modernization and strengthening of the Malatya 2nd Army the national combat aircraft project, the national tank, the national Command with new military systems as discussed later in this article. combat ship, the national unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and national (The eastern province of Malatya is where the NATO missile defense helicopters. In addition, there is an effort to produce indigenous mis- shield radar is installed.) sile and rocket systems, battleships, and much more. With such initia- tives, Turkey hopes to become one of the top 10 countries in the world The Future Soldier: Similar to the ‘Force 2020’ concept, Turk- in the military industry.1 Turkish open sources and military journals ish military experts are conducting research on a ‘future soldier’ con- reveal several important trends in the Turkish military industry in the cept. They are aiming for a future soldier who has increased capability last decade; along with plans for the next decade. to protect others and increased survivability; superior mobility; the ability to integrate into other systems via networks; a comprehensive Becoming Self-sufficient: The defense industry in Turkey went system of technological capabilities (energy production, non-lethal through a strategic transformation in the 2000’s. In the past, Turkey systems, remote surveillance and control, etc.) In addition to these, the used to meet its defense needs entirely through import; but in the last soldier would have systems which improve his maneuver and resis- decade, Turkey has made it a strategic priority to reduce dependence tance capabilities, liquid armor that would improve his survivability, a on foreign weapons, become more self-sufficient and more competi- bio-sensor system that would identify and diagnose biological weap- tive in the defense industry. To this end, the Turkish military industry ons, and robotic assistance systems that would improve his capacity to has been promoting strategies that would allow Turkey to design and carry more equipment. develop its own weapons. The goal of becoming more self-sufficient in this field is meant both as a deterrent, and a way to reduce depen- In addition, a new system called the CENKER system will dence on foreign companies. In addition to serving the Turkish Armed equip the future soldier with wearable computers, combat zone smart Forces, the goal is also to increase export and transfer technology. The glasses, smart watches, a heart rate monitor, a command computer, a focus has been on satisfying the needs of the armed forces with indig- long-lasting battery set, a microphone that filters out external noise, a enous development, increasing efficiency; and increasing cooperation live-feed camera, and software-based radio. The system will be used with small and mid-sized businesses. by Special Forces, but is envisioned for all soldiers over time.8 The CENKER system’s smart glasses will enable the team commander and In the past, the equipment of the Turkish military mostly came headquarters to see the surrounding area of each soldier through their from the US or Europe. In the last decade however, the Turkish de- glasses and computers. The Bluetooth connection enables the smart fense industry has made a huge leap. The rate at which the equipment watch to inform all soldiers in a team about the ammunition supply. needs of the Turkish Armed Forces are domestically produced rose The smart watch also enables exchanging urgent messages and infor- from 25% in 2003 to 44.2% in 2009 to 50% in 2011 to 55% in 2013, mation regarding enemy contact. The heart rate monitor allows for with the aim to increase this number to at least 75% by 2020 and 100% the evaluation of wounded soldiers.9 by 2023.2 Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said in a speech in 2015, “Our goal is to completely rid our defense industry of foreign A Space Agency and a Space Roadmap: The Turkish Armed dependency by 2023.”3 Similarly, the President of Turkish Aerospace Forces (TAF), who set out with the “concept of using space for peace- Industries (TAI- one of the world’s top 100 defense companies) has ful and defense purposes” has prepared a Space Roadmap. The Road- said, “We are talking about a country that will have its own national map includes the capability to identify a ballistic missile threat in tank, national ship, national helicopter, satellite and war plane...We advance and surveillance-reconnaissance to satisfy the need for visual are aiming to have everything the five permanent members of the UN intelligence. Another important project is the Space Group Com- Security Council have.”4 mand.10 This Space Group Command is expected to be structured by 2023 and also aims to develop the TAF’s abilities to identify a ballistic Increasing Defense Exports: Turkey has also become an missile threat in advance and to develop the TAF’s visual intelligence export power in the field of defense. Turkey’s first target market for abilities by utilizing the space dimension. This constitutes the military exporting defense goods is the Middle East, followed by the Caucasus component of an initiative to establish a Space Agency, (similar to and North Africa. One third of the Turkish defense and aviation ex- NASA and the European Space Agency) which would be a centralized port is to the United States, mostly in the form of commercial aviation body which coordinates all space and aviation efforts under one roof. systems and parts.5 The Turkish Undersecretariat for the Defense Industry is making plans to open five defense industry contact offices Efforts to Improve National Cyber Defense: Turkey ranks in the Middle East, Far East, United States, Caucasus-Central Asia, within the top five countries where dangerous software programs and EU-NATO regions to boost sales in the near future.6 originate, putting it in the same category as Brazil and Russia.11 Gov- ernment officials and security experts haves closely watch the devel- ‘Force 2020’ Concept: Turkey is in an uncertain geography opment of the United States Cyber Command and have recently taken with various types of threats. Thus the Turkish Army’s vision for the steps to establish a Cyber Command based on the US model. In late 2020 years is to be a deterrent force and a force that can prevail in 2010, the Turkish National Security Council added cyber-threats into symmetrical situations; but also one that underscores hybrid opera- its ‘National Security Policy Document,’ its official policy paper defin- tions. In addition to conventional force use, it would have capabilities ing security threats.12 that can handle asymmetrical environments, and capabilities that would be used in the cyber, air and space domains; and a force which Against this backdrop, Turkey has recently increased its efforts is ready for war at any moment, with a high degree of survivability. It to develop a national cyber defense strategy and establish institutions

(continued) OE Watch | June 2017 50 SPECIAL ESSAY By Karen Kaya The views expressed are those of the author and do not represent the official policy or position of the Department of the Army, Department of Defense, or the US Government. SPECIAL ESSAY Continued: Trends in the Turkish Military Industry

to deal with cyber threats. The Turkish Armed Forces has plans to The Turkish National Tank Project (ALTAY): Altay is Tur- establish a Cyber Defense Command, which like other commands, key’s first domestically designed and produced main battle tank, would develop its own doctrines, have its own budget and be auton- currently in the making. It has received much interest from export omous. There is an increased awareness of the fact that a new ‘war markets, including Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf countries. Al- domain’ has emerged in the form of ‘cyber space’ in addition to the tay is the third generation of the main battle tank (MBT), Turkey’s first traditional domains of land, sea, air and space. Since cyber attacks are indigenous tank development program. The tank is named after Army asymmetric, borderless and hard to attribute, Turkey is focusing its General Fahrettin Altay, who led the V Cavalry Corps during the 1923 efforts on cyber-defense.13 Turkish War of Independence.

Turkey’s scientific research institute TÜBITAK operates a cyber Altay will be equipped with a 120mm L/55 smoothbore gun. security institute (SGE), which accounts for 70 percent of all exist- The front side of the tank will have special modular reactive composite ing Turkish cyber security programs. Its work in this field is focused armor protection. The tank will be designed to resist chemical, biolog- on seven areas of ical and radiological (CBR) attacks. Both the gunner work: building and the commander will be provided with stabilized legal infrastruc- day/thermal sights. They are expected to be incorpo- ture; supporting rated with a laser range-finder having hunter-killer legal proceedings capability. The tank will have a maximum speed of through expertise; 70km/h and maneuverability at depths of 4.1m in wa- strengthening na- ter.16 tional cyber infra- structure; building In January 2016, officials from the Undersecre- a rapid reaction tariat for the Defense Industry declared that five pro- force against cyber totypes of the tank had been produced and succeeded threats; improving in tests in different spots across Turkey.17 In mid-May, human resources in 2017 Turkey’s main military vehicle manufacturer the field; develop- Otokar unveiled a new version of the Altay. This new ing local solutions; version, called the Altay-AHT, is the “urban operation” and expanding version of the same tank, and is designed for asym- cyber defense ca- metrical warfare. The tank features include explosive pabilities.14 Other reactive armor and bar armor systems on each side Turkish institutions for better survivability against guided and unguided working on the ballistic missile attacks. The tank also has improved The Altay tank with multispectral camo net show cased at IDEF 2017. issue are the Infor- Source:Wikimedia.org, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3AAltayCamoNet.png, Taken from visitors at IDEF 2017. situational awareness with the addition of a telescopic mation and Com- in Turkey [CC BY-SA 4.0] elevated observation system. It is fitted with a jammer munication Technolo- to protect against remote controlled improvised explo- gies Authority, the General Staff; and Turkish companies Aselsan and sive devices and equipped with a directional dozer blade that can be Havelsan, specialists in military electronics and software. operated by the driver. Its gunshot detection system can identify the direction of sniper threats; its laser warning system can identify threats The Command’s Modernization Ef- by laser-guided, anti-tank missiles; and its laser range finders can mea- forts: The Turkish Land Forces is in the process of modernizing and sure distance. The vehicle can also release a layer of smoke toward the restructuring its 400,000 force according to the ‘Army 2020’ vision, direction of an identified threat. The Turkish government will decide which entails a modern army that can respond to the 21st century’s this year whether to sign a serial product contract with Otokar for the warfighter requirements, by being more streamlined and flexible.15 Altay-AHT or launch competition for the contract.18 This is envisioned as a force that can carry out operations on a wide spectrum, and one which is smaller but more nimble. One of the National Infantry Rifle Project: The Turkish National Infan- central pieces of the ‘Force 2020’ vision is the modernization and try Rifle (MPT-76), a modular rifle is the first indigenously designed strengthening of the Malatya 2nd Army Command with new military service rifle in Turkey, designed and produced to meet the demands of systems. the Turkish Armed Forces. The MPT-76 was designed for robust high altitude, extremely hot and extremely cold mountain warfare as well as New military equipment are being included into the inventory combat on easier terrain. It is certified to operate under dusty, mud- of the Malatya 2nd Army. These include five second-hand intelligence dy, wet, and areas of high and low atmospheric pressure such as high class reconnaissance aircraft based in Malatya; and four Husky 2G mountain or deep sea environments. The MPT is a rifle intended to be Vehicle Mounted Mine Detectors (WMMD) which were delivered to extremely robust and maintain high accuracy and reliability in order the Malatya 2nd Army Command in 2013. Another new system for to survive in true battle environments. this Army Command includes the R-Visor Talon remote-controlled landmine identification robot. This is to address the Turkish Land The first batch of 200 MPT-76s were delivered to the Turkish Forces’ need for vehicle mounted mine identification systems and Armed Forces on 18 May 2014 and received positive feedback. The ri- entails a deal with STM (Savunma Teknolojileri Muhendislik – Turk- fle was reported to be extremely accurate, reliable, and had impressive ish for ‘Defense Technologies and Engineering) and Critical Solutions knockdown power. The Turkish Army is in the process of phasing out International (CSI).” its old G3 battle rifles and making the MPT-76 its main service rifle by 2017.19 (continued) OE Watch | June 2017 51 SPECIAL ESSAY By Karen Kaya The views expressed are those of the author and do not represent the official policy or position of the Department of the Army, Department of Defense, or the US Government. SPECIAL ESSAY Continued: Trends in the Turkish Military Industry

The Turkish National Machine Gun Project: An extension ing to the threat. The system was developed by ASELSAN (a Turkish of the Turkish Infantry Rifle, the Turkish National Machine Gun is military electronics specialist company and Turkey’s biggest defense a more complex weapon with many more parts. The project was firm), whose officials said about the ‘ Hızır’: “Ships are developing new launched in January 2011 and is being managed by the Machinery methods to counter threats from torpedos; thus forcing torpedos to and Chemical Industry Agency (MKE) in close cooperation with the become more silent and quicker in targeting the ship. Thus the system 22 expert personnel of the Turkish Armed Forces. The National Machine has been designed to be responsive and flexible.” The system has Gun is planned to be an effective weapon precisely developed for been designed for corvettes and surface ships. Turkey’s needs, fully reflecting the experience of the Turkish Armed Forces. The design and development of the project is currently ongo- The Command’s Modernization Efforts: ing. With its modernization program, the Turkish Air Force is also be- coming a major air power. It has made improvements to its planes The modern machine gun is being built according to the fol- and ammunition; in addition to important strides in air warning and lowing specifications: control, radar support operations as well as pilot training. The Peace -It must be usable by a single person, Eagle Airborne Early Warning and Control system (AEW&C) which -It must have a long barrel pitch, consists of a Boeing 737-700 airframe, fitted with a surveillance ra- 23 -The barrel should dispel heat quickly and not bulge, dar provides Turkey with significant advantage. Turkey also has - It must have low backfire power, must be used with a delayer gas electronic intelligence and signals intelligence capacity in addition system and revolving lock system, to a powerful radar network. In addition, 163 of Turkish F-16’s have - It should be able to fire 750 shots/minute and not have any stop- undergone CCIP (Common Configuration Implementation Program), page/locking, meaning that they have been updated for comprehensive avionic and 24 - It must have a range greater than 1000 meters [3280 feet].’20 ammunition modernization.

The Turkish Navy’s Modernization Efforts / The First Do- National Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV): Turkey was one of mestic Warship: In 2011, Turkey joined the ranks of the few countries the first countries to integrate UAVs into its inventory. While it ini- in the world that can build their own warships. The warship, a cor- tially purchased UAVs from the US and Israel, Turkey decided in 1998 vette, was built by a local shipyard and joined the Turkish Navy fleet in to indigenously produce UAVs. The first Turkish UAV prototype, the late September 2011. The warship was part of the MILGEM (National ‘ANKA’ conducted its first debut flight in 2010 and integrated into the Ship) project, which had kicked off in 2004. The first Turkish-built Turkish Air Forces’ inventory in 2013, marking the first locally pro- warship, called the ‘TCG Heybeliada’ is designed for anti-submarine warfare. Its capabilities include performing reconnaissance and sur- veillance, target detection, recognition and identification, early warn- ing, base and coastal defense, anti-submarine warfare, surface warfare, anti-air warfare, amphibious operations and patrolling. The design concept of the warship is similar to the Freedom class combat ship developed by Lockheed Martin as the first member of the next genera- tion of US Navy warships.21

The Heybeliada is planned to be protected by a domestically produced defense shield called the ‘Hızır’, a countermeasure anti-tor- pedo system. The system allows the ship to detect a torpedo that is di- rected at it. It then identifies the best defense measure to take accord- Boeing 737 AEW&C Mesa Peace Eagle in Seattle, September 6, 2007. Source: Wikimedia, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3ABoeing_737_AEW%26C_MESA_Peace_Eagle.jpg, By Seattle Aviator (Own work) [CC BY-SA 3.0]

duced UAVs including their software and mechanics.

Turkey is now working on an ‘ANKA-S’ system that will have additional capabilities including, control by satellite capacity (SAT- COM) and crypto data link, national flight control computer and Aselsan “CATS” Electro-Optical Reconnaissance, Surveillance and Targeting Systems capabilities. The delivery of these systems is ex- pected to be completed within 2019.25 Turkey also has plans to build upon the success of this project to produce indigenous armed drones. The “SIHA” [Strike UAV] would have a dual ISR/armed strike role and would be equipped with air-to-ground missiles and laser guided bombs.26

The March 2015 issue of the Turkish military journal MSI, a Turkish Corvette TCG Heybeliada. monthly journal on defense technologies, featured a piece analyzing Source: By MC2 John Herman [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3AU.S._Navy_Cmdr._ Russell_Caldwell_waves_to_the_Turkish_corvette_TCG_Heybeliada_(F_511)_from_aboard_the_guided_missile_destroyer_USS_Ross_ unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV)-related developments in Turkey’s (DDG_71)_in_the_Mediterranean_Sea_during_a_passing_exercise_Sept_140902-N-IY142-159.jpg, Public Domain. (continued) OE Watch | June 2017 52 SPECIAL ESSAY By Karen Kaya The views expressed are those of the author and do not represent the official policy or position of the Department of the Army, Department of Defense, or the US Government. SPECIAL ESSAY Continued: Trends in the Turkish Military Industry

defense industry in the last 10 years. The piece provided a glimpse tional means. ATAK’s weapons include the laser-guided ‘Cirit’ missile of the ongoing debate going in Turkey regarding what Turkish UAV produced in Turkey and in demand by many countries; along with producers must do in order to be competitive in the future. It noted the Hellfire antitank missile, which attracts attention due to its long that future UAVs must be equipped with modern systems to detect range. This project had been underway since late 2007. Hydra rockets and anti-aircraft Stinger missiles can also be launched by the ATAK T-129.36

Plans to Produce Indigenous Modern Warheads and Air- plane Bombs: In 2014, Turkey opened a national modern facility to produce indigenous warheads, airplane bombs and plastic explosives. The ‘Warhead Production Facility’ was established in the Kırıkkale province of Turkey.37 All of the special production equipment built in the facility (which produces the explosives for all modern equipment), are produced by domestic firms and inside of Turkey. The warheads TAI Anka UAV on display at 2014 Farnborough Air Show. and airplane bombs produced here are meant to free Turkey from its Source: Wikipedia Commons, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3ATAI-ANKA-UAV-FAR14-3659.JPG, By MilborneOne (Own work) [CC BY-SA 4.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0)], via Wikimedia Commons dependency on foreign powers for its defense needs and improve its

and escape, they must be able to quickly adapt to various tasks. For a 10-year horizon, it claims that UAVs must have extraordinary autono- mous capabilities, such as the ability to ascend and descend vertically and the ability to stay in the air for over 72 hours.27

Weapons to Defend against UAVs: Currently, the Turkish military is considering several different projects and initiatives to counter UAVs. One of these projects is a weapon akin to the US’s Laser Weapons System (LaWS) which aims to neutralize ships and down UAVs.28 Turkey has started work to develop this weapon, which is be- ing called one of the weapons of the future. The laser weapon will be used in the destruction of UAVs, guided missiles, navigation missiles TAI T129 Attack Helicopter “1001” on display at the 2014 Farnborough Air Display. 29 Source: Wikimedia Commons, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3AT-129-1001-FAR14-3651.JPG, By MilborneOne (Own work) [CC and mortar ammunition. The laser weapon to be developed will be BY-SA 4.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0)], used in navy ships and army vehicles. The project foresees the devel- opment of ‘target detection and target pursuit’ systems, which will global standing.38 enable the high strength solid laser source and laser radiation to be focused on the target until the target is damaged. The weapon is called The Turkish National Combat Aircraft Project: On 15 De- the High Powered Laser Weapon System (YGLSS in its Turkish acro- cember 2010, Turkey’s Defense Industry Executive Committee (SSIK) nym). Other projects being considered to defend against UAV’s are decided to design, develop, and manufacture an indigenous next gen- an ‘ammunition with 35 mm Particle’ which would contain the UAV eration air-to-air combat fighter.39 Feasibility studies were launched in inside a cloud of particles;30 and an Infrared Search and Track (IRST) June 2011. Four years later, in late 2015, the Turkish Aerospace Indus- System for sea platforms.31 tries (TAI) and the Turkish Air Force decided on a dual engine aircraft concept, following some debate about whether the plane should have a Indigenous Long Range Air and Anti Missile Defense Sys- single or dual engine. The dual engine was preferred for the aircraft to tem: In mid-November 2015, the Turkish government announced the have a longer flight range and the capacity to fly with heavier weapon cancellation of a $3.44 billion deal with China to co-produce Turkey’s loads. The nation’s next-generation fighter will be designed with assis- first long-range air and anti-missile defense system; in favor of devel- tance from BAE Systems.40 oping the system domestically.32 The most likely contenders are Turk- ish military giants ASELSAN and the Turkish missile maker Roketsan. The TFX aircraft will make its first flight in 2023, the centen- 33 On 22 February 2017, Turkey’s Defense Minister announced that, nial of the Turkish Republic. After the first flight, it will go through a Turkey was searching for systems to protect itself against missile and testing phase until 2025. During this time, the plan is to update the air attacks until it developed its own system. He noted that Russian aircraft systems according to the missile, target and radar systems of S-400s were a leading contender, adding that significant progress had the time. The radar and weapons systems are planned to be completed been made in talks with Russia.34 The talks are on-going as of June indigenously. After the testing phase in 2025, the serial production 2017. phase will begin. This aircraft is expected to replace the F-16’s in the Turkish Air Force, which have been in use since 1988.41 First Combat Helicopters: In October 2014, the ‘ATAK- T-129’, the first attack and tactical reconnaissance helicopter produced In April 2015, Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu by Turkey were delivered to the Turkish Land Forces.35 The ‘T-129 remarked on Turkey’s “painful experience” in World War One when ATAK’ was produced using the newest technology in the aerospace it was forced to buy arms from abroad. “A nation without its own sector, and is able to successfully conduct maneuvers that are nor- defense industry cannot fight the cause of liberation,” he said at the mally very difficult to conduct. In addition, the helicopter features 100th anniversary of the Battle of Gallipoli, adding that by 2023 a an advanced weapons and control system, produced entirely by na- locally-made combat plane will “fly the Turkish skies”.42 Turkish (continued) OE Watch | June 2017 53 SPECIAL ESSAY By Karen Kaya The views expressed are those of the author and do not represent the official policy or position of the Department of the Army, Department of Defense, or the US Government. SPECIAL ESSAY Continued: Trends in the Turkish Military Industry President Erdoğan echoed the same sentiment when he said “Our goal These initiatives are a reflection of this goal- to become is to completely rid our defense industry of foreign dependency by completely self sufficient in defense by 2023, the centennial of the 2023,” during a defense industry conference in Istanbul in May 2015.43 Turkish Republic.

ENDNOTES

1. “Turkish Defense Industry Products Protecting the World,” Defence- 24. Metin Gürcan, “Syria’s increasingly congested skies,” Al Monitor, 9 October Turkey, 9 September 2014, http://www.defence-turkey.com/index2. 2015, http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2015/10/turkey-russia-syria- php?p=article&i=1699#.VGWD2Euv20s intervention-increasing-risks-air-combat.html 2. “ANKA batılı ülkeleri korkuttu (ANKA scares western countries),” Milliyet.com.tr, 20 25. “SSM to Form 2020’s Defense Industry Policy,” Defense Turkey, 14 September May 2013, http://ekonomi.milliyet.com.tr/anka-batili-ulkeleri-korkuttu/ekonomi/ 2015, http://www.defenceturkey.com/?p=article&i=2090#.VorEs0t160s. detay/1711315/default.htm 26. Tony Skinner, “IDEF 2013: Turkey launches armed UAV project,” 3. Jonny Hogg and Can Sezer, “Turkey’s president wants to turn the country into Shephardmedia.com, 9 May 2013, http://www.shephardmedia.com/news/uv- a major defense industry power,” Business Insider, 27 May 2015, http://www. online/idef-2013-turkey-launches-armed-uav-project/ businessinsider.com/r-erdogan-aims-to-turn-turkey-into-major-defense-industry- 27. “Türk Savunma ve Havacılık Sanayisi’nin IHA’lı 10 Yılı! (10 Years of UAVs in power-2015-5 the Turkish Defense and Aerospace Industry!),” MSI Aerospace Defense 4. Ibid.; The five permanent members of the UN Security Council are Russia, China, Technologies and Strategy, March 2015. the United States, the United Kingdom and France. It should be noted that they 28. “Türk ordusu lazer silahı üretecek (The Turkish army will produce a laser are all nuclear powers. weapon),” Sabah.com.tr, 19 January 2015, http://www.sabah.com.tr/ 5. “Interview: Sedat Güldogan,” Defense News, 10 November 2014, http://archive. teknoloji/2015/01/19/turk-ordusu-lazer-silahi-uretecek defensenews.com/article/20141110/DEFREG01/311100025/Interview-Sedat-G- 29. “Türkiye ilk milli lazer silahını yapıyor (Turkey is producing its first national laser ldogan weapon),” Gazetevatan.com.tr, 19 January 2015, http://www.gazetevatan. 6. “Turkey-Military Spending,” Globalsecurity.org, 8 November 2014, http://www. com/turkiye-ilk-milli-lazer-silahini-yapiyor-718539-gundem/ globalsecurity.org/military/world/europe/tu-budget.htm 30. “35 mm Parçacıklı Mühimmat (Ammunition with 35 mm with Particle),” 7. “KKK Modernizasyon Çalıșmalarına Bir Bakıș (A Look at the [Turkish] Land Forces Aselsan.com.tr, Undated, http://www.aselsan.com.tr/tr-tr/cozumlerimiz/hava- Command’s Modernization Efforts),” Savunma ve Havacılık (Defense and ve-fuze-savunma-sistemleri/kundagi-motorlu-ve-parcacikli-muhimmat/35-mm- Aerospace), Vol. 27, No. 127, October 2013 issue, pages 8-42. parcacikli-muhimmat) 8. “Türk askeri teknolojiyle donatılacak (Turkish soldiers will be equipped with 31. “ASELSAN Elektro-Optik ve Navigasyon Sistem Çözümleri (ASELSAN Electro- technology),” Ensonhaber.com, 11 May 2015, http://www.ensonhaber.com/turk- Optic and Navigation System Solutions),” MSI Havacılık, Savunma Teknolojileri askeri-teknolojiyle-donatilacak-2015-05-11.html ve Strateji (Airospace, Defense Technologies and Defense Magazine), Nov 9. Ibid. 2013, No.10 10. “Türkiye’den Uzay Kuvvetleri Komutanlığı Adımı (Turkey’s Step [towards] a Space 32. “Türkiye Çin füzesinden vazgeçti, milli füze projesi başlatılacak (Turkey changed Forces Command),” Bugun.com.tr, 4 January 2015, http://www.bugun.com.tr/ its mind on the Chinese missile, a national missile project to be launched),” teknoloji/tskdan-yeni-bir-adim-haberi/1421413 Hurriyet.com.tr, 15 November 2015, http://www.hurriyet.com.tr/turkiye-cin- 11. “Pentagon Gibi Siber Ordu Geliyor (Turkey Plans to Establish a ‘Cyber Army’ like fuzesinden-vazgecti-milli-fuze-projesi-baslatilacak-40014297 the Pentagon),” Aktifhaber.com, 29 October 2010, http://www.aktifhaber.com/ 33. This ended a two year process which had started on 26 September 2013, pentagon-gibi-siber-ordu-geliyor-348004h.htm when Turkey had announced its decision to start talks with a Chinese firm to 12. Ibid. co-produce a long-range air and missile defense system. The contract was 13. Nazlı Zeynep Bozdemir, “ICWC dünya çapında bir konferans olma yolunda awarded to the China Precision Machinery Export-Import Corp. (CPMEIC), a (ICWC is on its way to becoming a world-class conference),” Siberbulten.com, 3 company noted for violating the Iran, North Korea and Syria Nonproliferation December 2014, http://siberbulten.com/sektorel/trky/icwc-dunya-capinda-bir- Act. NATO had expressed concern and warned of compatibility issues between konferans-olma-yolunda/ the Chinese-made system and the NATO systems. Since then, the deal had 14. Burak Ege Bekdil, “Feeling Vulnerable, Turkey Seeks National Cyber Solutions,” stalled, suggesting second thoughts on Turkey’s part. Defensenews.com, 10 December 2014, http://www.defensenews.com/story/ 34. “Bakan Fikri Işık’tan S400 açıklaması (Minister Fikri Işık’s S400 Declaration),” defense/international/europe/2014/12/10/feeling-vulnerable-turkey-seeks- CNNTurk.com, 22 February 2017. http://www.cnnturk.com/turkiye/bakan-fikri- national-cyber-solutions/20215515/ isiktan-s400-aciklamasi 15. “KKK Modernizasyon Çalıșmalarına Bir Bakıș (A Look at the [Turkish] Land 35. “Ilk 5 ATAK helikopteri ve pilotları ‘harbe’ hazır (The first 5 ATAK helicopters and Forces Command’s Modernization Efforts),” Savunma ve Havacılık (Defense and pilots are ready for ‘combat’),” Zaman.com.tr, 17 October 2014, http://www. Aerospace), Vol. 27, No. 127, October 2013 issue, pages 8-42. zaman.com.tr/gundem_ilk-5-atak-helikopteri-ve-pilotlari-harbe-hazir_2251283. 16. “Altay main battle tank-Turkey,” Army Technology Market and Customer Insight, html Undated, http://www.army-technology.com/projects/altaymainbattletank/ 36. “ATAK, Turkey’s first combat helicopters ready for mission,” Cihan.com.tr, 17. “Turkey’s first domestic tank sees big regional demand,” Hurriyet Daily News, 7 17 October 2014, http://en.cihan.com.tr/news/ATAK-Turkey-s-first-combat- January 2016, http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkeys-first-domestic-tank- helicopters-ready-for-mission_8078-CHMTU1ODA3OC80 sees-big-regional-demand.aspx?PageID=238&NID=93567&NewsCatID=345 37. “Türkiye modern harp başlığı üretecek (Turkey will produce modern 18. “Otokar Unveils Altay-AHT, Urban Operations Tank at the IDEF,” Otokar.com.tr, warheads),” Anatolian Agency News, 16 April 2014, http://www.aa.com.tr/tr/ Undated. https://www.otokar.com/en-us/corporate/media/news/Pages/altay- haberler/314438--turkiye-modern-harp-basligi-uretecek urban-idef.aspx 38. “Türkiye savaş başlıkları üretecek (Turkey to produce warheads),” Turkish Prime 19. “The New Turkish MKEK Methmetcik MPT-76 National Rifle,” The Firearm Blog, Ministry’s Press and Information Office, 16 April 2014, http://www.byegm.gov. 12 May 2014, http://www.thefirearmblog.com/blog/2014/05/12/turkish-mkek- tr/turkce/haber/turkiye-savas-basliklari-ve-ucak-bombalari-uretecek/57849 mehmecik-mpt-76-national-rifle/ 39. “Turkey ready to produce first national fighter jet,” Today’s Zaman, 15 June 20. “Mehmetçik’e yerli makineli tüfek (Domestic machine gun for Mehmetçik),” 2011, http://www.todayszaman.com/news-247512-turkey-ready-to-produce- Zaman.com, 29 December 2011, http://www.zaman.com.tr/ekonomi_ first-national-fighter-jet.html mehmetcike-yerli-makineli-tufek_1221273.html 40. Tolga Özbek, “BAE chosen to assist with Turkey’s TFX fighter project,” 21. Source: “İlk Türk Savaş Gemisi TCG Heybeliada, Deniz Kuvvetleri Komutanlığı Flightglobal.com, 3 December 2015, https://www.flightglobal.com/news/ Envanterine Katıldı (The First Turkish Warship TCG Heybeliada Joined the Navy articles/bae-chosen-to-assist-with-turkeys-tfx-fighter-proje-419695/ Fleet)” Haber3.com, 27 September 2011. http://www.haber3.com/ilk-turk-savas- 41. “İşte ilk milli savaş uçağı (Here is the first national combat aircraft),” Sabah. gemisi-tcg-heybeliada,-deniz-kuvvetleri-komutanligi-envanterine-k-1029409h. com, 26 October 2015, http://www.sabah.com.tr/gundem/2015/10/26/iste- htm ilk-milli-savas-ucagi 22. “Savaş gemilerine yerli koruma kalkanı,” Ensonhaber.com, 7 February 2011, 42. Jonny Hogg and Can Sezer, “Turkey’s president wants to turn the country http://www.ensonhaber.com/savas-gemilerine-yerli-koruma-kalkani-2011-02-07. into a major defense industry power,” Business Insider, 27 May 2015, http:// html www.businessinsider.com/r-erdogan-aims-to-turn-turkey-into-major-defense- 23. Bill Carey, “Boeing Completes ‘Peace Eagle’ AEW&C Deliveries to Turkey,” industry-power-2015-5 Ainonline.com, 9 December 2015, http://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/ 43. Ibid. defense/2015-12-09/boeing-completes-peace-eagle-aewc-deliveries-turkey

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