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Iran's Foreign and Defense Policies

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Iran's Foreign and Defense Policies Iran’s Foreign and Defense Policies name redacted Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs August 2, 2017 Congressional Research Service 7-.... www.crs.gov R44017 Iran’s Foreign and Defense Policies Summary Iran’s national security policy is the product of many, and sometimes competing, factors: the ideology of Iran’s Islamic revolution; Iranian leadership’s perception of threats to the regime and to the country; long-standing Iranian national interests; and the interaction of the Iranian regime’s various factions and constituencies. Some experts assert that the goal of Iran’s national security strategy is to overturn a power structure in the Middle East that Iran asserts favors the United States and its allies Israel, Saudi Arabia, and other Sunni Muslim Arab regimes. Iran characterizes its support for Shiite and other Islamist movements as support for the “oppressed” and asserts that Saudi Arabia, in particular, is instigating sectarian tensions and trying to exclude Iran from regional affairs. Others interpret Iran as primarily attempting to protect itself from U.S. or other efforts to invade or intimidate it or to change its regime. Iran might additionally be seeking to enhance its international prestige or restore a sense of “greatness” reminiscent of the ancient Persian empires. From 2010 until 2016, Iran’s foreign policy included an additional focus on mitigating the effects of international sanctions. Iran employs a number of different national security policy tools, including traditional diplomacy and the public promotion of Iran’s values and interests. Of greater concern to U.S. officials is that Iran advances its interests by providing material support to armed groups, some of which conduct acts of international terrorism. For several decades, an annual State Department report on international terrorism has described Iran as the leading state sponsor of terrorism. Iran’s armed support to Shiite-dominated allied governments, such as those of Syria and Iraq, has fueled Sunni popular resentment. Iran also has financially supported regional politicians and leaders. Iran has used the July 2015 multilateral nuclear agreement with Iran (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, JCPOA) to ease its international diplomatic isolation, to try to develop itself as a regional energy and trade hub, and to negotiate future weapons buys. Supreme Leader Ali Khamene’i and key hardline institutions, such as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), oppose any compromises of Iran’s core goals, but support the reintegration into regional and international diplomacy that is advocated by Iran’s elected president, Hassan Rouhani. Iran’s national security policy focuses most intently on the Near East region, and in particular on U.S. operations, allies, and activities there. Iran’s policy also seems to be directed at influencing the policies and actions of other big powers, such as those in Europe as well as Russia, as partners of the United States or as antagonists of U.S. actions in the region. Some experts forecasted that the lifting of international sanctions in January 2016 in accordance with the JCPOA would enable Iran to expand its regional influence further. The Obama Administration assessed that the JCPOA would cause Iran to moderate its regional behavior in order not to jeopardize the agreement and its benefits. During 2016, Obama Administration officials and U.S. reports asserted that there was little, if any, alteration of Iran’s national security policies. The Trump Administration has cited Iran’s regional “malign activities” and repeated ballistic missile tests to assert that Iran “is now feeling emboldened” and that “Iran’s provocative actions threaten the United States, the [Middle East] region, and the world.” While undertaking a comprehensive policy review on Iran, the Administration has to date sanctioned additional Iran missile entities under existing authorities and sought to forge a regional coalition to counter Iran. However, Iran’s activities appear to be shaped more by the political and situational opportunities for Iran to exert influence rather than by the financial resources available to Iran. Congressional Research Service Iran’s Foreign and Defense Policies Contents Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 1 Iran’s Policy Motivators .................................................................................................................. 1 Threat Perception ...................................................................................................................... 1 Ideology .................................................................................................................................... 2 National Interests ...................................................................................................................... 2 Factional Interests and Competition .......................................................................................... 3 Instruments of Iran’s National Security Strategy ............................................................................ 3 Financial and Military Support to Allied Regimes and Groups ................................................ 4 Other Political Action ................................................................................................................ 7 Diplomacy ................................................................................................................................. 7 Iran’s Nuclear and Defense Programs ............................................................................................. 8 Nuclear Program ....................................................................................................................... 8 Iran’s Nuclear Intentions and Activities .............................................................................. 8 International Diplomatic Efforts to Address Iran’s Nuclear Program ............................... 10 Developments during the Obama Administration .............................................................. 11 The Trump Administration and the JCPOA ...................................................................... 13 Missile Programs and Chemical and Biological Weapons Capability .................................... 13 Chemical and Biological Weapons ................................................................................... 13 Missiles ............................................................................................................................. 13 Conventional and “Asymmetric Warfare” Capability ............................................................. 16 Military-Military Relationships and Potential New Arms Buys ....................................... 17 Asymmetric Warfare Capacity .......................................................................................... 18 Iran’s Regional and International Activities .................................................................................. 21 Near East Region..................................................................................................................... 21 The Persian Gulf ............................................................................................................... 21 Iranian Policy on Iraq, Syria, and the Islamic State ................................................................ 32 Iraq .................................................................................................................................... 32 Syria .................................................................................................................................. 34 Iran’s Policy toward Israel: Supporting Hamas and Hezbollah .............................................. 35 Hamas ............................................................................................................................... 36 Hezbollah .......................................................................................................................... 37 Yemen...................................................................................................................................... 38 Turkey ..................................................................................................................................... 39 Egypt ....................................................................................................................................... 40 South and Central Asia .................................................................................................................. 41 The South Caucasus: Azerbaijan and Armenia ....................................................................... 41 Central Asia ............................................................................................................................. 42 Turkmenistan .................................................................................................................... 43 Tajikistan ........................................................................................................................... 43 Kazakhstan ........................................................................................................................ 44 Uzbekistan ........................................................................................................................ 44 South
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