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“Bases Técnicas Para El Monitoreo Y Evaluación De Alfonsino”

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“Bases Técnicas Para El Monitoreo Y Evaluación De Alfonsino” Conocimiento y Naturaleza “Bases Técnicas para el Monitoreo y Evaluación de Alfonsino” Informe Final Proyecto FIP 2004-41 Mayo de 2008 REQUIRENTE CONSEJO DE INVESTIGACION PESQUERA Presidente del Consejo: Jorge Chocair Santibañez EJECUTOR Conocimiento y Naturaleza SUBCONTRATOS INSTITUTO DE FOMENTO PESQUERO PONTIFICIA UNIVERSIDAD CATOLICA DE VALPARAISO ESCUELA DE CIENCIAS DEL MAR 2 Conocimiento y Naturaleza JEFE DE PROYECTO ALEJANDRO ZULETA (2005-2007) EDWIN NIKLITSCHEK (2007-2008) AUTORES ALEJANDRO ZULETA PEDRO RUBILAR EDWIN NIKLITSCHEK PATRICIO GALVEZ ZAIDA YOUNG MARCELO FELTRIM AURORA GUERRERO FRANCISCO CONTRERAS RENZO TASCHERI 3 Equipo de trabajo Alejandro Zuleta Jefe de Proyecto 2004-2007; líder objetivos 1 y 4; desarrollo modelo EEM. Pedro Rubilar Coordinación general del proyecto; preparación de informes; revisión de datos biológico-pesqueros; desarrollo modelo EEM. Edwin Niklitscheck Jefe de Proyecto 2007-2008, análisis de índices hidroacústicos de abundancia, edición de informes. Patricio Gálvez Jefe de subcontrato IFOP; análisis de costo-beneficio estrategias de monitoreo. Marcelo Feltrim Modelo de evaluación de stock y reglas de decisión. Francisco Contreras Análisis de datos de captura y esfuerzo. Zaida Young Análisis de índices de CPUE; análisis de costo-beneficio estrategias de monitoreo. Renzo Tascheri Diseño oferta técnica; Análisis de costo-beneficio estrategias de monitoreo. Aurora Guerrero Jefe sub-contrato UCV; síntesis historia de vida y de la pesquería. Tom Polacheck Consultor internacional; asesoría al desarrollo y programación modelo EEM. 4 RESUMEN EJECUTIVO La pesquería de alfonsino en Chile cuenta con información limitada sobre aspectos poblacionales, del ciclo de vida y del efecto de la pesca. La CPUE muestra tendencias diferentes entre zonas. En el caso del monte JF1, la señal interanual de la CPUE de alfonsino muestra fluctuaciones en torno a un valor central, y en el caso de JF2 muestra una declinación durante los primeros años y una estabilización hacia el final del periodo analizado. La señal de biomasa acústica, disponible sólo para los años 2005 y 2006 no muestra diferencias significativas entre ellas. No obstante, presenta una gran variabilidad entre años/montes, coincidiendo con la percepción de alta movilidad del alfonsino entre montes, respondiendo mas bien a la dinámica de stock único para Juan Fernández antes que a sub-poblaciones por montes. La distribución de frecuencias de talla (DFT) presenta variaciones importantes de acuerdo con las niveles de desagregación. La información más abundante esta centrada en los montes JF1 y JF2, para los cuales es posible lograr un grado de desagregación adecuado. En los montes JF4 y JF5 existen combinaciones sin datos o con muy pocos datos. Por lo tanto, las DFT a escala anual presenta la mejor información para todo el periodo. La DFT total (comercial+cruceros acústicos) y la DFT comercial no presentan diferencias significativas entre ellas. Esto indica que las DFT de los surveys no aportan más información sobre la estructura de tamaños. Ambas fuentes de información entregan una visión parcial de la estructura poblacional. Las DFT anuales muestran corrimientos no muy marcadas de modas, que pueden indicar el ingreso de reclutas (ejemplares en torno a los 20 cm LH). Al desagregar la información por montes y años, y montes, año y sexo la evidencia de corrimientos modales no es clara, aún cuando es posible observar algunas señales en ciertos años (JF1: 1999, 2005 y 2006; JF2y3: 2003, 2004; JF4: 2002 y JF5: 2006). Se identificó dos tipos de objetivos para la pesquería de alfonsino, uno que representa el objetivo biológico o de conservación que propicia la administración y un objetivo económico que representa a los pesqueros. i) “Evitar la reducción del stock a niveles que impliquen un riesgo para la sostenibilidad del recurso en el largo plazo”; y ii) “Obtener capturas altas y estables en el largo plazo”. El logro de estos objetivos compuestos implica alcanzar un balance aceptable entre los objetivos de conservación y económico y, dentro de este último, entre maximizar y estabilizar las capturas. 5 La selección de métodos robustos de evaluación y estrategias de control fue alcanzada. De los cuatro modelos planteados en la propuesta técnica, se optó por la implementación de tres de ellos, los cuales en definitiva resumen de manera adecuada las opciones para esta pesquería. En el marco del cumplimiento de este objetivo, se modeló e implementó un algoritmo de cálculo (código) del modelo operativo, del modelo de la estrategia de manejo y, previa integración de ambos, del Modelo de Evaluación de Estrategias de Manejo (EEM). Desde el punto de vista de los costos, el escenario de EEM con la estrategia orientada al uso de modelos de evaluación de biomasa dinámica es la más barata. En segundo lugar se ubica la estrategia para el modelo de ARS (Modelos de Reducción de Stock) que usa como insumos la CPUE, tallas o edades y biomasa acústica. El escenario con el modelo de edad estructurado (Modelo más complejo) que necesita de las capturas, CPUE, matriz de capturas a la edad, y estimaciones de biomasa acústica es el más caro; no obstante los tres escenarios son económicamente viables, ya que en la actualidad se está usando un modelo similar al escenario dos, faltando sólo la componente de edad. De éstos, dada su viabilidad económica, es preferible el escenario tres, ya que el uso de las estructuras de edades, permitirían seguir mejor el paso de las cohortes y el reclutamiento. Es importante tener presente, que el diseño y aplicación de EEM es pionero en Chile. Este proyecto lo aborda introduciendo un enfoque nuevo que implica un cambio de paradigma o una reorientación de la gestión pesquera, por consiguiente, las dificultades a superar son más altas de lo normal e incluyen: i) participación de expertos internacionales; ii) equipos de trabajo altamente especializados; iii) adecuada comprensión de la magnitud de los recursos y tiempo necesarios para la implementación exitosa de este enfoque a una determinada pesquería; iv) separación de las etapas de “modelamiento y desarrollo del software de EEM” de la etapa de “análisis, diseño e implementación de procedimientos de manejo”. Incluir ambas etapas en el mismo proyecto es un error pues se confunde en un mismo esfuerzo dos actividades de muy distinta índole: una “con solución técnica” y otra “sin solución técnica” (Hardin, 1968). La primera etapa evidentemente cae en un dominio técnico y su resultado es controlable mediante decisiones de ese tipo. La segunda etapa, en cambio, requiere necesariamente de la “participación” de los administradores y otros grupos de interés (incluyendo los usuarios). 6 TABLA DE CONTENIDOS Pág. RESUMEN EJECUTIVO ..................................................................................................................................5 TABLA DE CONTENIDOS..............................................................................................................................7 ÍNDICE DE TABLAS ........................................................................................................................................9 ÍNDICE DE FIGURAS .....................................................................................................................................11 OBJETIVOS DEL PROYECTO...................................................................................................................... 14 OBJETIVO GENERAL ................................................................................................................................................. 14 OBJETIVOS ESPECÍFICOS.......................................................................................................................................... 14 1. INTRODUCCIÓN .............................................................................................................................. 15 2. PUESTA EN MARCHA Y DESAROLLO DEL PLAN DE ACTIVIDADES .................................. 18 3. DESARROLLO POR OBJETIVOS ....................................................................................................20 3.1 OBJETIVO 1. ESPECIFICAR OBJETIVOS DE MANEJO PARA LA PESQUERÍA DEL ALFONSINO Y EVALUAR ALTERNATIVAS DE INDICADORES DE DESEMPEÑO EN FUNCIÓN DE TALES OBJETIVOS.............................................. 20 3.1.1 Especificación de los objetivos de manejo e indicadores de desempeño........................................................................... 20 3.1.1.1 Introducción..........................................................................................................................................................................20 3.1.1.2 Metodología...........................................................................................................................................................................21 3.1.1.3 Resultados..............................................................................................................................................................................22 3.2 OBJETIVO 2. SELECCIONAR MÉTODOS ROBUSTOS DE EVALUACIÓN DE STOCK Y ESTRATEGIAS DE CONTROL PARA LA PESQUERÍA DEL ALFONSINO (MF) ..................................................................................................... 23 3.2.1 Insumos para la modelación y condicionamiento del modelo operativo ......................................................................... 23 3.2.1.1 Síntesis de historia de vida: Biología y ciclo vital .............................................................................................................23
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