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August – October 2017 – Projected Situation: November to March 2018 REPOBLIKAN’I MADAGASIKARA

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August – October 2017 – Projected Situation: November to March 2018 REPOBLIKAN’I MADAGASIKARA INTEGRATED FOOD SECURITY CLASSIFICATION Current situation: August – October 2017 – Projected situation: November to March 2018 REPOBLIKAN’I MADAGASIKARA IPC analysis carried out from 9 to 15 October 2017 for the South and the South East of Madagascar KEY OUTPUTS OF FOOD INSECURITY FROM AUGUST TO OCTOBER 2017 % POPULATION NEEDING EMERGENCY ACTION (PHASE 3 & 4 OF The most affected areas: IPC) Districts in emergency without humanitarian assistance (IPC Phase 3 !): AMBOASARY SUD and Percentage1 of household and number of people who need emergency the four communes in the district of Taolagnaro (Ranopiso, Analapatsy, Andranobory, action to proctect their livelihood and reduce food shortage from August Ankariera) to October 2017, in the areas affected by natural disaster (drought/flood) Districts in crisis (IPC Phase 3): VANGAINDRANO, FARAFANGANA, TULEAR II – (Commune of in the districts of the South and South East of Madagascar and compared Beheloka/Efoetse), AMPANIHY, BETIOKY, AMBOVOMBE, BELOHA, BEKILY, TSIHOMBE to the situation from March to May 2017. Districts in stressed (IPC Phase 2) : VOHIPENO and MANAKARA. For all the analyzed geographical area, 9% of the population (approximately 261 388 persons) are in emergency phase (IPC phase 4) and 34% of the population (approximately 1 027 783 persons) is classified in crisis phase (IPC phase 3). Food consumption: In the South East, the District of Farafangana records a high proportion of households having a poor FCS (Food Consumption Score) (20,1%) ; the other districts have a rate ranging from 3 and 7,8%. With regard to the South, Ampanihy, Beloha, Tsihombe, the 4 Communes of Taolagnaro, Bekily, and Toliara II recorded an FCS exceding 20%. The other districts have a rate hovering at around 15%. Changes in livelihood patterns: In the South East, more than 80% of households adopted crisis strategies. Households which adopted a coping strategy are below 9%. As far as the South is concerned, more than 25% of households living in Tuléar II, Tsihombe and the 4 communes of Taolagnaro resorted to coping strategies. The proportion of households which has adopted at least one coping mechanism reaches 80% in the area of Tuléar II, Beloha and Tsihombe. 1 Percentage of households from estimates carried out by the IPC Nutrition status: The outcomes SMART survey of April 2017, the proxys GAM measured through protocols. the CFSAM (July 2017) for all the study areas and trends of the mass screening outcome shows The total number of population affects the whole population in the that the trends of the GAM for the post harvest period are stabilized after the peak of April 2017 area of analysis. Partner of the analysis and support organization : IPC world partnership : OVERVIEW OF THE ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY SITUATION, AUGUST TO OCTOBER 2017 The period of August to October 2017 coincides with the period of harvest but also with the beginning of lean season especially for the households in phase 4 and 3. Because of the insufficiency of food products that remains lower than the average of the 5 previous years, the situation deteriorated slightly in the South compared to the active period of March to June 2017. However, compared to the post‐harvest period of 2016, a palpable improvement of the situation is observed. A light increase of 10% of households being in phase 3 and 4 has been noted. The percentage of population in phase 3 passed from 26% to 35% while the one of the households situated in phase 4 increased from 8% to 10%.. For the South East, the situation is mitigated enough if we compare the period of August to October 2017 to the period of March to June 2017. The percentage of populations being in phase 3 and 4 increased from 37% to 41%. However, an improvement is observed for the Districts of Vohipeno and Manakara while a deterioration is recorded for the Districts of Farafangana and Vangaindrano. Indeed, for these two Districts, the proportion of population classified in phase 3 was 20% up for Farafanganas and 15% for Vangaindrano Moreover, the number of people that need emergency action to protect their livelihood and reduce the food deficits of August to October 2017 reached 1.289.171 people spreading in the areas of analysis accordin to different proportions. The majority of indicators related to food consumption and change of livelihood shows the persistence of crisis and the increase of household proportion in phase of crisis according to IPC phase (3) and emergency (4). Regarding the period from March to June 2017, only the Districts of Ampanihy (+36%) and Farafangana (+20%) recorded an increase of the percentage of households with a poor SCA. For the other Districts, although a light improvement is observed, it is noted that the percentage of households with a poor SCA exceeds the 14% in the South and can reach 38% for Tsihombe. With regard to coping strategies, the majority of the households of some Districts adopted crisis strategies at least which was 84.3% in Beloha, 78.5% in Tsihombe, 75.1% in Tuléar II, 62.5% in Fort Dauphin, 47.7% in Amboasary Sud and 48.9% in Ambovombe and for the most affected areas in the South East, we noted 86% in Farafangana and 82.3% in Vangaindrano. For Tsihombe, Taolagnaro, Tuléar II, households which have adopted emergency strategy is 20% up while this percentage is between 10% to 16% in Amboasary and Ambovombe. For the District of Amboasary, the situation is critical for the semi‐arid zone. In the light of other contributing factors, the District of Tsihombe, Beloha, of Amboasary Sud, the areas of Taolagnaro and Tulear II, Farafangana and Vangaindano are the preoccupying cases. All in all, 235.799 people are always in phase of emergency (4) and 946.363 people in situation of crisis (3). This situation results from effects of the drought and the four successive years of bad harvests. The large amount of humanitarian assistances provided in the South allowed to mitigate the impact of these shocks on the food security of households during the first semester of this year. These assistances were however largely interrupted since June 2017. The acute malnutrition (GAM) doesn't exceed alert threshold of 10% in the 9 Districts of the South included in the survey and trend is steady during the period of observation. As a finding, it can be argued that the nutritional support has contributed a lot to limit the deterioration of the situation OVERVIEW OF THE ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY SITUATION, NOVEMBER TO MARCH 2018 This period of analysis coincides with the beginning of the growing season.. The meteorological forecasts from the General Direction of the Malagasy Meteorology and the last bulletin of the SARCOF, announce rainfall deficits for the two study areas until November. For December and January, the rainfall trends indicate above‐normal rains for the regions of the South East and below normal rains until January 2018 for some areas of the South. From January, rainfall forecasts for the two areas announce above‐normal rains For the South, this situation announces a delay in the start of cropping season and the absence of small harvest before the big lean season that generally takes place toward the second half of the projected period. This peak of lean season is characterized by high levels of basic products prices. Inflation is dictated by the difficulty of market supply which generates the decrease, or even the complete absence of the main commodities in isolated areas. It will impact the difficulty of household access to basic food products. It is therefore very likely that households of these areas continue to undergo a deterioration of their food situation. Indeed, for households in IPC phase 3 and 4 during the period of August to October 2017, the lean season already began and the beginning of agricultural campaign will be difficult to them without external support. This situation applies to all the Districts of the South that would know, without exception, an increase of the proportions of households in humanitarian phase (IPC 3 and 4). Indeed, Ampanihy, Betioky and Ambovombe would be the only districts that have not recorded a failover of negative phases. For the South East, although the climate forecastings announce early enough rains allowing the beginning of the season toward November, the vulnerability of the population of the South likely grew with the effects of the floodings expected between January to March 2018 which are very high. The interruption of the humanitarian assistance in June 2017, the weak food availability expectd during the lean season, the problems of access linked to the seasonal inflation, combined with water problems (access, quality and usage mode) encourage the deterioration of children nutrition status. And the trends show that the peak of the malnutrition is in February‐March, therefore there is a need to reinforce the nutritional surveillance. Thus, for the projected situation, an increase of the population in phase 3 and 4 are expected. The estimates are 1 630 000 people, that is to say 54% of the population of the areas of analysis, that will require an emergency action in order to protect their livelihood, to reduce their food deficits and the prevalence of the acute malnutrition. For the South, the situation risks to deteriorate if no measure is taken into account to prepare the second season and farmers support in the start of the growing season. RECOMMENDATIONS FOR THE DECISION‐MAKING General recommendations To communicate to actors of the South and South East the findings of the projected analysis on the
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