INTEGRATED FOOD SECURITY CLASSIFICATION Current situation: August – October 2017 – Projected situation: November to March 2018 REPOBLIKAN’I MADAGASIKARA

IPC analysis carried out from 9 to 15 October 2017 for the South and the South East of KEY OUTPUTS OF FOOD INSECURITY FROM AUGUST TO OCTOBER 2017 % POPULATION NEEDING EMERGENCY ACTION (PHASE 3 & 4 OF The most affected areas: IPC)  Districts in emergency without humanitarian assistance (IPC Phase 3 !): and Percentage1 of household and number of people who need emergency the four communes in the district of Taolagnaro (, , Andranobory, action to proctect their livelihood and reduce food shortage from August Ankariera) to October 2017, in the areas affected by natural disaster (drought/flood)  Districts in crisis (IPC Phase 3): VANGAINDRANO, FARAFANGANA, TULEAR II – (Commune of in the districts of the South and South East of Madagascar and compared Beheloka/Efoetse), AMPANIHY, BETIOKY, AMBOVOMBE, BELOHA, BEKILY, TSIHOMBE to the situation from March to May 2017.  Districts in stressed (IPC Phase 2) : VOHIPENO and MANAKARA.

For all the analyzed geographical area, 9% of the population (approximately 261 388 persons) are in emergency phase (IPC phase 4) and 34% of the population (approximately 1 027 783 persons) is classified in crisis phase (IPC phase 3).

Food consumption: In the South East, the District of Farafangana records a high proportion of households having a poor FCS (Food Consumption Score) (20,1%) ; the other districts have a rate ranging from 3 and 7,8%. With regard to the South, Ampanihy, Beloha, Tsihombe, the 4 Communes of Taolagnaro, Bekily, and Toliara II recorded an FCS exceding 20%. The other districts have a rate hovering at around 15%.

Changes in livelihood patterns: In the South East, more than 80% of households adopted crisis strategies. Households which adopted a coping strategy are below 9%. As far as the South is concerned, more than 25% of households living in Tuléar II, Tsihombe and the 4 communes of Taolagnaro resorted to coping strategies. The proportion of households which has adopted at least one coping mechanism reaches 80% in the area of Tuléar II, Beloha and Tsihombe.

1 Percentage of households from estimates carried out by the IPC Nutrition status: The outcomes SMART survey of April 2017, the proxys GAM measured through protocols. the CFSAM (July 2017) for all the study areas and trends of the mass screening outcome shows The total number of population affects the whole population in the that the trends of the GAM for the post harvest period are stabilized after the peak of April 2017 area of analysis.

Partner of the analysis and support organization :

IPC world partnership : OVERVIEW OF THE ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY SITUATION, AUGUST TO OCTOBER 2017 The period of August to October 2017 coincides with the period of harvest but also with the beginning of lean season especially for the households in phase 4 and 3. Because of the insufficiency of food products that remains lower than the average of the 5 previous years, the situation deteriorated slightly in the South compared to the active period of March to June 2017. However, compared to the post‐harvest period of 2016, a palpable improvement of the situation is observed. A light increase of 10% of households being in phase 3 and 4 has been noted. The percentage of population in phase 3 passed from 26% to 35% while the one of the households situated in phase 4 increased from 8% to 10%.. For the South East, the situation is mitigated enough if we compare the period of August to October 2017 to the period of March to June 2017. The percentage of populations being in phase 3 and 4 increased from 37% to 41%. However, an improvement is observed for the Districts of Vohipeno and Manakara while a deterioration is recorded for the Districts of Farafangana and Vangaindrano. Indeed, for these two Districts, the proportion of population classified in phase 3 was 20% up for Farafanganas and 15% for Vangaindrano Moreover, the number of people that need emergency action to protect their livelihood and reduce the food deficits of August to October 2017 reached 1.289.171 people spreading in the areas of analysis accordin to different proportions. The majority of indicators related to food consumption and change of livelihood shows the persistence of crisis and the increase of household proportion in phase of crisis according to IPC phase (3) and emergency (4). Regarding the period from March to June 2017, only the Districts of Ampanihy (+36%) and Farafangana (+20%) recorded an increase of the percentage of households with a poor SCA. For the other Districts, although a light improvement is observed, it is noted that the percentage of households with a poor SCA exceeds the 14% in the South and can reach 38% for Tsihombe. With regard to coping strategies, the majority of the households of some Districts adopted crisis strategies at least which was 84.3% in Beloha, 78.5% in Tsihombe, 75.1% in Tuléar II, 62.5% in Fort Dauphin, 47.7% in Amboasary Sud and 48.9% in Ambovombe and for the most affected areas in the South East, we noted 86% in Farafangana and 82.3% in Vangaindrano. For Tsihombe, Taolagnaro, Tuléar II, households which have adopted emergency strategy is 20% up while this percentage is between 10% to 16% in Amboasary and Ambovombe. For the District of Amboasary, the situation is critical for the semi‐arid zone. In the light of other contributing factors, the District of Tsihombe, Beloha, of Amboasary Sud, the areas of Taolagnaro and Tulear II, Farafangana and Vangaindano are the preoccupying cases. All in all, 235.799 people are always in phase of emergency (4) and 946.363 people in situation of crisis (3). This situation results from effects of the drought and the four successive years of bad harvests. The large amount of humanitarian assistances provided in the South allowed to mitigate the impact of these shocks on the food security of households during the first semester of this year. These assistances were however largely interrupted since June 2017. The acute malnutrition (GAM) doesn't exceed alert threshold of 10% in the 9 Districts of the South included in the survey and trend is steady during the period of observation. As a finding, it can be argued that the nutritional support has contributed a lot to limit the deterioration of the situation

OVERVIEW OF THE ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY SITUATION, NOVEMBER TO MARCH 2018 This period of analysis coincides with the beginning of the growing season.. The meteorological forecasts from the General Direction of the Malagasy Meteorology and the last bulletin of the SARCOF, announce rainfall deficits for the two study areas until November. For December and January, the rainfall trends indicate above‐normal rains for the regions of the South East and below normal rains until January 2018 for some areas of the South. From January, rainfall forecasts for the two areas announce above‐normal rains

For the South, this situation announces a delay in the start of cropping season and the absence of small harvest before the big lean season that generally takes place toward the second half of the projected period. This peak of lean season is characterized by high levels of basic products prices. Inflation is dictated by the difficulty of market supply which generates the decrease, or even the complete absence of the main commodities in isolated areas. It will impact the difficulty of household access to basic food products. It is therefore very likely that households of these areas continue to undergo a deterioration of their food situation. Indeed, for households in IPC phase 3 and 4 during the period of August to October 2017, the lean season already began and the beginning of agricultural campaign will be difficult to them without external support. This situation applies to all the Districts of the South that would know, without exception, an increase of the proportions of households in humanitarian phase (IPC 3 and 4). Indeed, Ampanihy, Betioky and Ambovombe would be the only districts that have not recorded a failover of negative phases.

For the South East, although the climate forecastings announce early enough rains allowing the beginning of the season toward November, the vulnerability of the population of the South likely grew with the effects of the floodings expected between January to March 2018 which are very high.

The interruption of the humanitarian assistance in June 2017, the weak food availability expectd during the lean season, the problems of access linked to the seasonal inflation, combined with water problems (access, quality and usage mode) encourage the deterioration of children nutrition status. And the trends show that the peak of the malnutrition is in February‐March, therefore there is a need to reinforce the nutritional surveillance.

Thus, for the projected situation, an increase of the population in phase 3 and 4 are expected. The estimates are 1 630 000 people, that is to say 54% of the population of the areas of analysis, that will require an emergency action in order to protect their livelihood, to reduce their food deficits and the prevalence of the acute malnutrition. For the South, the situation risks to deteriorate if no measure is taken into account to prepare the second season and farmers support in the start of the growing season. RECOMMENDATIONS FOR THE DECISION‐MAKING General recommendations  To communicate to actors of the South and South East the findings of the projected analysis on the risks of precipitation from October to March 2018 (South: normal to below‐normal and South East: normal to above‐normal), in order to allow the implementation of a strategy adapted to the start and during the growing season (drought resistant seeds, choices of crop areas and types of crops, stock of pre‐positioned stocks for the agricultural revival, pre‐positioned stocks of phytosanitary products to deal with crop attacks in rainy seasons);  Given the significant reduction of food production of the crop season 2016‐2017 with regard to the averages of the 5 previous years, prioritize and continue emergency activities for the populations in phase 3 and 4 that are in the pockets of nutritional and food vulnerability;  Restore and enhance livelihood and/or assets: food security integrated action and livelihood (protection of seeds, valuing improved short cycle varieties, adapted to the agro‐ecological conditions), social transfers,  To consider the weakness of the crop area and the land tenure insecurity, to extend innovative techniques to allow a better agricultural output and to revive high value cash crops (extension of compost establishment, improved seed).  To implement or to scale up the productive safety net projects: construction or rehabilitation of the community interest assets (infrastructures of storage and distribution of water for domestic and agricultural use, troughs for farmed animals, rural tracks, etc.); in order to support activities that aims at diversifying income sources of the community as well as of the community  With reagard to diversification of income sources and food, to support fishing activities (endowment of material) and the capacity building for the conservation (drying and cool storage /community/solar energy) and the disposal of products;  Coordinate the multi‐sectoral activities of recovery and development more efficiently for a better integration, synergisme and leverage effects of lever on the community and regional economy;  Set up sustainable mechanism of water management for agriculture as well as for for the human and animal consumptions;  To reinforce activities which protect watersheds of the South East and fix dunes for the South (reforestation, agroforestry,…);  To reinforce and to scale up the arrangements/mechanisms of price monitoring, of food availability, the agro‐meteorological information, and surveillance of the trend of food, nutrition and health situation that constitutes the basis of the early warning system;  To conduct a chronic IPC analysis to emphasize the real impact of the cyclical shocks of the prevailing precarious situation in the South.

Specific recommendations for the South  To accelerate the implementation of the early warning system that would allow to limit the deterioration of the situation during the period of food crisis while encouraging informed and early decision makings and the implementation of mitigation activities and recovery;  To conduct an exercise of learned lessons on the humanitarian interventions and to update the drought contigency plan in order to improve the coordination of interventions as well as humanitarian and recovery;  To implement a system which allows nutritional monitoring of children ctivities during the lean season 2018 and reinforce care program of acute malnutrition in terms of coverage  To study the possibility to decentralize the ambulatory care of the SAM at community level for the improvement of the access and the use of the services by the malnourished children;

IPC METHODS & MAIN DIFFICULTIES  The situation analysis of acute food insecurity was done in Toliara ( Atsimo Andrefana Region) from 09 to October 15, 2017 with regard to the South of Madagascar, which contains 3 regions (Androy, , Atsimo Andrefana) including the districts of Ambovombe, Tsihombe, Beloha, Bekily, Amboasary Atsimo, Ampanihy and Betioky, and 5 communes located in the semi‐arid zone of the district of Taolagnaro are added to them as well as the commune of Beheloka and Efoetse in the district of Toliara II. In the South East 4 districts are included in the analysis: Farafangana and Vagaindrano ( Atsimo Atsinanana Region) and Manakara and Vohipeno (Vatovavy Fitovinany Region).  The analysis has been done through an inter‐regional technical workshop involving about thirty technical analysts from different horizons (food security, nutrition, health, agriculture, statistics, geography, economy) and coming from the Government's technical services (regional directions of the MPAE, MSANP, MPPFPS, ONN, BNGRC, ST.‐PADR, INSTAT), from the United Nations agencies (FAO, WFP, UNICEF), FEWSNET and from international and national/local NGOs (CARE, CARITAS, FIANTSO, DIAKONIA) with the support of the IPC Global Support Unit and the team of the IPC/SADC  The worshop of the analysis has been preceded by a refresher training of 2 days on the IPC tool, followed by the implementation of the working groups that did the analysis of food security for the 13 districts. The analysis relies on a multi‐sectorial data base which contains the outcomes of the CFSAM survey (FAO/PAM, July 2017), SMART (UNICEF.ONN April 2017), the price trends of the SISAV bulletins (FAO, 2015‐2107), the data of the Ministry of Health, the meteorological and climatic data of the SARCOF and the General Direction of the Malagasy Meteorology. The data base uses the four results of food security (food consumption, changes in livelihood, nutrition status, death) as well as a large range of contributing factors (availability, access, access to water).  The analysis relied on 4 direct evidences (according to the IPC protocols), and about forty indirect evidences for the classification. The main data used was collected between July and August 2017, an extrapolation was necessary in order to estimate the situation for the projected situation: September to March 2017. The level of confidence of the analysis is therefore 2 (average). ESTIMATES OF THE POPULATION FOR THE CURRENT SITUATION The table below describes the population in each IPC acute food insecurity phase from August to October 2017.

ESTIMATES OF THE POPULATION FOR THE PROJECTED SITUATION The table below describes the population in each IPC acute food insecurity from November to march 2018.

For further information

IPC Technical Working Group: [email protected] Regional support unit SADC IPC: [email protected]

Classification of the severity of acute food insecurity carried out according to the IPC protocols. This analysis was made possible with the technical and financial support of the IPC Global Support Unit.