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Baltic Sea): a Comparative Study with Different Modelling Scenarios

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Baltic Sea): a Comparative Study with Different Modelling Scenarios ICES CM 2009/G:02 Not to be cited without prior reference to the author Developments in the shallow coastal ecosystem of the Väike Strait (Baltic Sea): a comparative study with different modelling scenarios Ülo Suursaar, Robert Aps, Tiit Kullas, Georg Martin, and Mikk Otsmann Abstract The Väike Strait in the West Estonian Archipelago has been closed by a 3 km-long road dam since 1896, forming two separate bays. Conditions in the northern part are mainly governed by the more saline Baltic Proper; in the S-part relatively nutrient-rich Gulf of Riga waters prevail. In recent decades, ecological conditions have been deteriorating in the area and acceleration of accumulation and eutrophication has been observed. Reproduction areas of whitefish and herring have been disturbed. According to widespread opinion, as no water exchange occurs through the strait, the existence of the dam is the reason for those adverse changes. Therefore, a question of constructing some bridged openings has risen several times in the past. The aims of the study are to analyse the ongoing changes in the area, and to decide whether re-opening of the strait may help to restore the past situation. The study is based on monitoring and special measurements data in the area. The possible influence of openings were analysed using high-resolution 2D hydrodynamic modelling. Changes in renewal times of water masses were calculated and matter fluxes were studied. The results suggested that most of the past changes have probably occurred due to natural and of larger scale causes, such as isostatic land uplift, regional increase in water temperature, sedimentation and overall eutrophication of the sea. They cannot be undone merely by re-opening the strait. On the other hand, anticipated manifestations of climate change, such as sea-level rise, increase in temperature and storminess, will increasingly affect the ecosystem. Keywords: water exchange, eutrophication, modelling, spatial planning, climate change, trends, Baltic Sea. Contact author: Ülo Suursaar Estonian Marine Institute, University of Tartu Mäealuse 10a, Tallinn, 12618, Estonia Phone: +372 6718950, Fax: +372 6718900 [email protected] 1 1. Introduction The Baltic Sea is a large transition area between limnic and marine conditions, where plants and animals are a mix of marine and limnic species together with some genuinely brackish water forms (HELCOM, 2003; BACC, 2008). Due to the existence of several semi-enclosed sub-basins, distinct ecological subsystems have developed, which maintain their separation either by features of the complex coastline or hydrological fronts. Apparently, the sensitivity to a set of natural and anthropogenic changes is quite different in these different sub-areas. A few dramatic examples of such co-existence of different subsystems can be found in the West Estonian Archipelago Sea (the Väinameri Sea). The West Estonian coastal sea is a shallow and naturally diverse marine environment. It consists of semi-enclosed sub-basins, a zone of straits, numerous islands and shoals, where large reproduction areas of herring, eel, whitefish, garfish and pikeperch locate. a) b) Figure 1. Map of the West Estonian Archipelago Sea (Väinameri) and the Gulf of Riga with borders of 2D hydrodynamic model domain. The specific (nested) study area of the Väike Strait is marked with “2” (a). Bathymetry of the Väike Strait and its division into sub-areas (“boxes” B1, etc., see also Table 1 for their measures) (b). 2 The aquatic areas of the Archipelago Sea together with a narrow strip of mainland serve as the biosphere reserve of UNESCO-s MBP Program, as well as for Natura 2000. The relatively narrow and shallow (1-2 m) Väike Strait (“small strait” in Estonian) locates between the islands of Saaremaa and Muhumaa (Fig. 1b). It has been closed by a 3 km- long road dam. Hence, it is actually not a strait any more, but two relatively shallow bays. The construction work of the Väike Strait dam began in 1892 and the opening of the road link between the Saaremaa and Muhumaa islands took place on 27 July 1896. Now, lasting for nearly 10 years already, preparatory work for bridging also the Suur Strait and discussions on its possible environmental impacts are going on. Being the main strait of the Gulf of Riga – Väinameri system (Fig. 1), the Suur Strait ("big strait" in Estonian) has a width of 4 km and maximum depth of 21 m. In recent decades, the ecological condition is said to be deteriorating in the Väike Strait area, fish stocks are declining, acceleration of accumulation and eutrophication processes have been observed (Porgassaar, 1993; Ecological…, 1994; Ojaveer, 1995; Kotta et al., 2008). According to widespread opinion, as no water exchange between the Gulf of Riga and the Väinameri Sea occurs through the Väike Strait, the existence of the dam should be the main reason for those adverse changes. Therefore, a question of re-opening of the strait by constructing some bridged openings has risen several times in the past: in 1993 (Ecological…, 1994), 1999 (Suursaar et al., 2000), and most recently in 2008. The aims of these studies were to analyse the past changes in the Väike Strait area, and to decide whether the planned holes have the desired effect on water exchange and on restoring the past situation. The paper summarizes our last results on that issue. The second aim of the study is, in a more wide perspective, to illustrate the ecological developments in such a marine area, where separated by an artificial dam, the different parts are governed by different forcing conditions. The conditions in the northern part are more connected to the regional (“marine”) changes in the Baltic Proper as a whole, while the developments in the southern part are more related to the conditions in the more eutrophied Gulf of Riga sub- basin and local pollution. 2. Material and methods 2.1. Monitoring data The analysis of the past and present situation was based on the data of Estonian national marine monitoring, which is carried out since 1967 (since 1993 by the Estonian Marine Institute), as well as on special measurements in the area (e.g. in 1993, 1996, 2006-2008). The data included nutrient concentrations, oxygen, water temperature and salinity, as well as some hydrobiological variables in the 6 locations (Fig. 2). Some historical background data from the Marine Station of the Estonian Marine Institute at Pärnu were used as well (see e.g. Suursaar and Tenson, 1998; Suursaar et al., 2005; Kotta et al., 2008). According to the Estonian Water Policy Directive (and the EU Water Framework Directive), the main indicators for seawater quality are phytoplankton biomass and Chl a, and the secondary parameters are nutrients, zooplankton and status of the bottom vegetation. In 2006 and 2008, correspondingly, altogether 33 and 28 samples were collected for phytoplankton, Chl a, and nutrients (Ntot, Ptot, NO 3+NO 2, PO 4, SiO 4) in the study area. The samples covered the ice-free period from May to October. The sampling depth was 1 m and the analysis methods followed the HELCOM standards in the fully accredited biological laboratory of the Estonian Marine Institute. Bottom vegetation and 3 zoobenthos was studied in 13 locations in 2008. In addition, data on fish catches were analysed within the ICES subdivisions 28 and 29, small quadrants No. 245 and 172 (see also Martin, 2008; Vetemaa et al., 2006). VV 1 VV 2 VV 3 VV 4 VV 5 VV 6 Figure 2. The locations for hydrochemical and biological monitoring in 2006-2008.a. 2.2. Hydrodynamic modelling The basic hydrodynamic properties, as well as the possible influence of holes were analysed by means of several relatively simple hydrodynamic models. They included, firstly, a 2D hydrodynamic model with the grid step of 1 km. It has 16 405 marine points in the Gulf of Riga and 2510 points in the Väinameri (Fig. 1a). The depth-averaged free- surface model is based on the so-called shallow sea equations. In our case it is forced by the wind data from the Vilsandi meteorological station and by open boundary sea level variations according to the tide gauges of Ristna or Sõrve. The model provides both the sea level variations and depth-averaged currents in the grid points (see e.g. Suursaar et al., 2001; Suursaar and Kullas, 2006, for more details and some previous applications). Further on, especially for this study, a high-resolution Väike Strait model grid (2822 points) with a spatial resolution of 200 m was nested within the coarser grid. Water fluxes were allowed through the borders of the model. The final simulations of currents and water exchange were carried out within this small modelling domain (Fig. 1b). For facilitating the interpretation, water fluxes, water exchange and so-called residence times of water were calculated for different realistic and simplified forcing conditions, as well as for some dam-opening options within the six designated sub-areas (or “boxes”, Fig. 1b, Table 1). The dam is “closed” for the present situation and entirely “open” for the past or one marginal state. One point-size opening with the depth of 0.2 m represents the originally planned two 1 meter-deep “actual” holes with the width of 20 m (as they were initially planned for the dam). 3. Results and discussion 3.1. Current ecological conditions in the Gulf of Riga and in the Väike Strait The north-western half of the Väike Strait (or the NW-bay, to be more precise) has a length of about 11 km and an area of 38 km² (Table 1). The SE-bay has the inner and the outer part. The inner (8 x 3 km) basin is very shallow (average depth 0.6 m).
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