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Situation Assessement | 17 December 2018 The End of the Consensus Government in Tunisia A New Challenge for Democratic Transition Policy Analysis Unit The Ene oe the ConhEnsne oheEnment Ee Tunisi : eAeNhw ChallhEge for Democratic Transition Series: Situation Assessement 17 December 2018 Policy Analysis Unit TheP l cyeAnalysis Unit is the Center’s department dedicated to the study of the region’s most pressingecurrent iffairs.eAn integral and vitalepart of the A RPS’ activities, it offers academicilly rigorous analysis on issues that are relevant and useful to the psbl c, academics and p l cy-makers of the Arab region and bhyond. TheP l cyeAnalysis Unit draws on the c lliborative efforts of a number of scholars based within and outside the A RPS.eI eproduces three of the Center’nepsbl cation series:eAssessment Rhport,eP l cyeAnalysis, and Case Analysis reports.e Copyright ©e2018eArab Center for Research and P l cyeStudies.eAlleR ghts Reserved.eeeeee TheArab Center for Research and P l cyeStudies is an independent research institute and think tank for the study of history and socialenc hEces,ewith particslar emphasis on the applied socialenc hEces. The Cente’neparamount concern is the advancement of Arab societies and states, their cooperation with one another and issues concerning the Arab nation in general. To that end, it seeks to examine and diagnose the situation in the Arabeworlne- states and communities- to analyze social, economic and cslturalep l cies and to provide p liticil analysis, from an Arabepersphctive.e The Centerpsblishes in both Arab c and English in order to make its work accessible to both Arab and non- Arab researchers.e TheArab Center for Research and P l cyeStudies Al-Tarfa Street,eWin eAleBanat Al-DiyihE,eQatar POeB xe10277,eDoha +974 4035 4111 +974 40354114 www.dohainstitute.org The Ene oe the ConhEnsne oheEnment Ee Tunisi : eAeNhw ChallhEge for Democratic Transition Series: Situation Assessement Contents 17 December 2018 Government Stab lity . 1 Allhgations of a Coupeigainst the President . 2 Policy Analysis Unit TheP l cyeAnalysis Unit is the Center’s department dedicated to the study of the region’s most pressingecurrent S cialeProtests and P liticileQuestions . 3 iffairs.eAn integral and vitalepart of the A RPS’ activities, it offers academicilly rigorous analysis on issues that are relevant and useful to the psbl c, academics and p l cy-makers of the Arab region and bhyond. TheP l cyeAnalysis RhgionaleProjhcts in the P phline . .eeeeee.eeeeee. .eeeeee.eeeeee.eeeeee.eeeeee.eeeeee.eeeeee.eeeeee.eeeeee.eeeeee.eeeeee. .eeeeee.eeeeee.eeeeee.eeeeee.eeeeee.eeeeee.eeeeee.eeeeee.eeeeee.eeeeee.eeeeee.eeeeee.eeeeee.eeeeee.eeeeee.eeeeee.eeeeee.eeeeee.e 3 Unit draws on the c lliborative efforts of a number of scholars based within and outside the A RPS.eI eproduces three of the Center’nepsbl cation series:eAssessment Rhport,eP l cyeAnalysis, and Case Analysis reports.e Conclusion . .4 Copyright ©e2018eArab Center for Research and P l cyeStudies.eAlleR ghts Reserved.eeeeee TheArab Center for Research and P l cyeStudies is an independent research institute and think tank for the study of history and socialenc hEces,ewith particslar emphasis on the applied socialenc hEces. The Cente’neparamount concern is the advancement of Arab societies and states, their cooperation with one another and issues concerning the Arab nation in general. To that end, it seeks to examine and diagnose the situation in the Arabeworlne- states and communities- to analyze social, economic and cslturalep l cies and to provide p liticil analysis, from an Arabepersphctive.e The Centerpsblishes in both Arab c and English in order to make its work accessible to both Arab and non- Arab researchers.e TheArab Center for Research and P l cyeStudies Al-Tarfa Street,eWin eAleBanat Al-DiyihE,eQatar POeB xe10277,eDoha +974 4035 4111 +974 40354114 www.dohainstitute.org The Ene oe the ConhEnsne oheEnment Ee Tunisi:e Ne ChaaNenN fo Nefocrato Transitio Thec llipse of the consensus bh ween President Bhji Caid Essebsi and his Nidaa Tounes party and Ennahda continues to cast a shadow over Tunisian p liticn.eWith the breakn wn of the rules governinge the relationshipnebh ween the various actors since the 2014 elhctions,eweeks after the Tunisian Prime Minister Youssef Chahed’necibinet reshufflh, the details of the p liticilecrisis remain complhx. This bhgs the question:eWhat is the outcome of the democratic transition pursued by Tunisia foll w Ege the 2011 revolution?eIt also raises questions about the cipicity of institutions and p liticil elites in the face of a return to p lariz Eg and alienatingep litics in which regionaleparties serve to tip the bilance and widen the gip. Government Stability The announchnhE e oe ne President Bhj e i ne nnhbn e Ee late Shptembhee 2018e ti e the consensus with Ennahda in force since the 2014 elhctions had been terminated came as no surprise to Tunisian p liticile commentators.(1)e S Eche the confl c e bh whhEe the thinne oe the hxhcutive brancte (Essebn e iEne tithn)e bhcame psbl c,e EEitni,e the largest bl ce Ee parliament,e tine ct nhEe e prioritizhe “government stab lity”,eclaiming that it should not be subjhct to flsctuations of the bilance of p whee within Nidaa Tounes.eIt opposed the demands made byeNidaa Tounes, the Tunisian GeneraleLibour Union and other parties for the departure of Chahed and his government. There is no dobt that the support of the European Union and international economic institutions in favor of government stab lityepliyed a part in this decision.eWith the support of Ennahda and a large segment of Nidaa Tounes, Chahed received a comfortable majority for his newecibinet members when he introduced them to Parliament in Novembhe.(2)eA few days after Essebsi announced the coalition with Ennahda was over, the prosecution in the case of the assassination of activists Chokri Bhlaid and Mohamed Brahmi revealed what they described as a “blick room” in the Ministry of the Interior. This room illhgedlyecontainins dangerous documents proving the existence of a secret organization run bye Ennahda.e The eganization wine nhn gEhne e o ll we iEne l n hEe Ee Ee p litic iEne iEne n litarye iEne securityepersonnel and was involved in both aforementioned assassinations.(3) This dicovery means that security and justichew llebe harnessed in the service of p liticileconfl c n, in a wiy that does not bode whll for the democraticecivilecslture of the p liticilehlite. TheMinister of the Interior in Chahed’negovernment has denied the existence of the blick room in his ministryebut the case has not been closed.eOEeNovembhee26,ePresident Essebsi met with the prosecution team,ewhictepresented him with a “request for the NationaleShcurity Counc l to oversee 1 “IneP liticil Consensus Over for Tunisia?”eSituation Assessment,eTheArab Center for Research and P l cyeStudies,e8/10/2018,elast accessed 10/12/2018 at: httpn://www.dohainstitute.org/hE/P liticilStudies/Piges/In-the-P liticil-Consensus-Over- E-Tunisia.aspx 2 “Cabinet Reshuffle in Tunisia and the Outcomes of the P liticil Crisis”,eSituation Assessment, TheArab Center for Research and P l cyeStudies,e15/11/2018,e last accessed 10/12/2018 at: httpn://www.dohainstitute.org/hE/P liticilStudies/Piges/Cabinet-Reshufflh-Tunisia-Outcomes-P liticil-Crisis.aspx 3 Chokri Bhlaid and Mohamed Brahmi were leaders of the Tunisian P pslar Front (iecoalition of lhftist and nationalist parties). Thefirst was assassinated on 6eFhbruarye2013, the second was assassinated on 25eJsly of the same year, during the Troikiegovernment made up of the Ennahda, the Congress for the Rhpsbl c and DemocraticeForum for Libour and L berties. 1 Situation Assessement | 17 December 2018 the case and for the formation of a committee headed by a nationalefigure to examine the relevant evidench.”(4)e OEe the 29 te oe the ninhe n E t,e nnhbn e pehn nhne ohee ie Nationale Shcuritye sEc le meeting,ewhich del berated on the accusations filed by the prosecution in the assassination case igainst Ennahda.eIn a remarkible messagh, the president’neFichbookepighebroadcast a speech in which he stressed the importance of the prosecution team’ne progress, stating that Ennahda had threatened him in a statement issued in response to the charges.eMost of the leaks reported bye media and p liticil sources indicate that the president’s desire to turn the issue from a jsn cial into a security matter was met with disdain from the prime minister.eH wever, there are several indications,e Eclsn Eg repeated discussion of the issue, that the president is still try Eg to keep the case relevant in order to force his former partner and into a corner. This is ayear before the parliamentary and presidential elhctions exphcted in late 2019, in which the opinion p lls suggest Ennahda and Chahed are ahead while Essebsi and his partyeligebehind.(5) Allegations of a Coup against the President Ennahda is not the onlyeparty to find itself in the firingeline of the president and his Nidaa Tounes camp.eIn an act reminiscent of accusations made in the assassination case, the general secretary of Nidaa Tounes Sl neRiahi filed a liwsuit against the Prime Minister Youssef Chahed and several other fficialnewith the militaryecourt, accusing them of planning to stage a coup against Essebn .(6) Sources EeNidaa Tounes confirmed that Chahed’necoup is the subjhct of the liwsuit, essentially represented in the acquisition of state bodies and the luring of some Nidaa Tounes representatives to the Nationale Coalition bl c that supports him. The nxt step is allhgedly the use of force to extend his inflshEce on the state and isolate the president.(7) Theliwsuit filed by the general secretary of Nidaa Tounes has not been psblished.eH wever, the strongel Ekebh ween Essebsi and those who remained in his partye and the weak inflshEce of new arrivaleSl neRiahi make it l khly that Essebsi and his son Hafedh are behind the new open front against Chahed, esphcially since Essebsi has appointed the minister fired from Chahed’negovernment,eMibroukeKorchid, to foll wesp the matter.
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