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A Comparative Case Study on the Influence of the Military and the Labor Unions on Regime-Change

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A Comparative Case Study on the Influence of the Military and the Labor Unions on Regime-Change University of Nevada, Reno Guns or Roses: A Comparative Case Study on the Influence of the Military and the Labor Unions on Regime-Change A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Political Science by Janicke Stramer-Smith Dr. Robert L. Ostergard/Dissertation Advisor May 2018 Ó by Janicke Stramer-Smith 2018 All Rights Reserved THE GRADUATE SCHOOL We recommend that the dissertation prepared under our supervision by JANICKE STRAMER-SMITH Entitled Guns Or Roses: A Compartive Case Study On The Influenc Of The Military And The Labor Unions On Regime-Change be accepted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY Dr. Robert L. Ostergard, Advisor Dr. Ian M. Hartshorn, Committee Member Dr. Susanne Martin, Committee Member Dr. Erin E. Stiles, Committee Member Dr. Mehmet S. Tosun, Graduate School Representative David W. Zeh, Ph. D., Dean, Graduate School May, 2018 i Abstract Guns or Roses: A Comparative Case Study of the Influence of the Military and the Labor Unions on Regime Change Janicke Stramer-Smith The recent Arab Spring uprisings lent hope to much of the world that the region was finally transitioning away from authoritarian rule. Yet, the vastly differing outcomes have instead raised new questions. Particularly Egypt and Tunisia, which experienced such similar trajectories of social and political revolution, raise the question of why Egypt would return to authoritarian rule, while Tunisia is on the path towards a transitional democracy? In this dissertation, I explore the conditions of internally driven regime-change to explain the variation in political outcomes of the Arab Spring revolutions in Egypt and Tunisia. I argue that authoritarian regimes with a politicized military and a fragmented labor movement are more likely to experience a return to authoritarianism. Reversely, authoritarian regimes with a politicized labor movement and a fragmented or apolitical military yields a higher likelihood of a pacted transition towards democracy. The framework presented here unpacks the impact of politicization of the military and labor on regime-change by exploring how their ability to politically mobilize influenced outcomes of the political transitions in Tunisia and Egypt. To do so this paper explores the relationship between the military’s and labor in politics and how this relationship affects outcomes of political transitions and revolutions. ii For my mother, who has always supported my every endeavor iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENT Writing this dissertation was at times an adventure and at a times long lonely hours at the computer, but it was always a project of passion. Writing a comparative case study required spending time conducting fieldwork in Egypt and Tunisia. I greatly appreciate the institutions that served as base while in Cairo and Tunis and extend a special thank you to the wonderful staff at the Netherlands-Flemish Institute in Cairo and the Center for Maghrib Studies in Tunis. I also want to thank everyone who took time to speak with me in Egypt, Tunisia, and the archivists at the George Meany Memorial Library at the University of Maryland. A special thanks to Dr. I. William Zartman, who was my mentor through the AIMS mentoring program. They all made my research richer. Without their help, I could not have completed this research. I am also grateful to the institutions that have funded parts of this research including the Bilinski Foundation, the University of Nevada, Reno, and the Inge Frederiksen Fund. I am deeply grateful to my advisor and dissertation chair Dr. Robert L. Ostergard, who helped shape this project every step of the way with thoughtful guidance. Choosing Dr. Ostergard as chair of my committee was the best professional decision I have ever made. I also want to thank Dr. Ian M. Hartshorn, a dear friend, co-author, and dissertation committee member, whose passion about labor in North Africa deeply inspires me. Thanks to Dr. Susanne Martin who shaped my thinking on comparative politics. I also want to thank Dr. Eubank for always having his door open and offering helpful advice along the way. iv I want to thank my fellow colleagues in the graduate program. Together we divided and conquered the endless list of readings that helped shape our critical thinking skills. I also made some wonderful friends during my fieldwork in Tunis and Cairo, who served as support and family-away-from home. A special thanks to Charlotte Pardey who made our difficult time in Tunis something to think back on with joy. Most importantly, I want to thank my family. To my mother, Eva, who always encouraged me to pursue my dreams, took care of the dogs when I was doing fieldwork, and instilled the belief in me that anything is possible. To my dear husband, Justin, who has been by my side throughout this journey with patience and love. My achievements are a testament to their love and support. v Table of Contents ABSTRACT .................................................................................................................... I TABLE OF CONTENTS ............................................................................................... V LIST OF TABLES ..................................................................................................... VIII LIST OF FIGURES ...................................................................................................... IX CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION .............................................................................. 1 THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK FOR ANALYSIS: THE POLITICIZATION OF SOCIAL GROUPS .............................. 3 CASES AND METHODOLOGY ................................................................................................................ 32 CONTRIBUTION AND LITERATURE ........................................................................................................ 39 Civil-Military Relations in the Literature on Egypt and Tunisia ...................................................... 40 Labor Relations in the Literature on Egypt and Tunisia. ................................................................. 46 ORGANIZATION .................................................................................................................................. 49 CHAPTER TWO: CASE STUDY EGYPT ................................................................... 50 THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK AND THE EGYPTIAN CASE......................................................................... 55 THE EGYPTIAN REVOLUTION 2011 ...................................................................................................... 70 The Military’s Role in the Revolutionary Period 2011 - 2013.......................................................... 78 The Labor Movement during and after the Revolution .................................................................... 94 Turning Points ............................................................................................................................. 105 MILITARY AND LABOR PRE-INDEPENDENCE ...................................................................................... 105 The Military and Modern Egypt. .................................................................................................. 106 The Emergence of Labor in Modern Egypt. .................................................................................. 110 Turning Points ............................................................................................................................. 112 THE MILITARY AND LABOR DURING POST-INDEPENDENCE ................................................................. 113 The Military in the Post-Independence Era. ................................................................................. 115 vi Labor in Post-Independence Egypt ............................................................................................... 124 Turning Points ............................................................................................................................. 132 FOREIGN INFLUENCE ON THE MILITARY AND LABOR .......................................................................... 133 Foreign Influence on the Military ................................................................................................. 133 Foreign Influence on Labor ......................................................................................................... 139 CONCLUSION .................................................................................................................................... 142 CHAPTER THREE: CASE STUDY TUNISIA ........................................................... 145 THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK .............................................................................................................. 150 THE JASMINE REVOLUTION 2011 ....................................................................................................... 162 The Military’s involvement in the Jasmine Revolution .................................................................. 164 Labor during the Jasmine Revolution ........................................................................................... 178 Turning Points ............................................................................................................................. 188 THE MILITARY AND LABOR IN THE PRE-INDEPENDENCE ERA ............................................................
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