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Street Smart: Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield for Urban Operations

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Street Smart: Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield for Urban Operations Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield for Urban Operations Jamison Jo Medby • Russell W. Glenn Prepared for the United States Army R ARROYO CENTER Approved for public release; distribution unlimited The research described in this report was sponsored by the United States Army under Contract No. DASW01-96-C-0003. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Medby, Jamison Jo. Street smart : intelligence preparation of the battlefield for urban operations / Jamison Jo Medby, Russell W. Glenn. p. cm. “MR-1287.” Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 0-8330-3171-6 1. Urban warfare. 2. Military intelligence—United States. 3. United States. Army—Drill and tactics. I. Glenn, Russell W. II. Title. U167.5.S7 M44 2002 355.4'26—dc21 2002021364 RAND is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND® is a registered trademark. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions or policies of its research sponsors. Cover artwork by Priscilla B. Glenn Cover design by Barbara Angell Caslon © Copyright 2002 RAND All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from RAND. Published 2002 by RAND 1700 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 201 North Craig Street, Suite 202, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org/ To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] PREFACE This monograph discusses how the U.S. Army’s intelligence prepa- ration of the battlefield (IPB) process should be adapted for military operations on urbanized terrain (MOUT). It notes the capabilities of this process to help a unit engage successfully in any type of opera- tion, and it suggests modifications to the traditional process in order to address the operational and analytic difficulties posed by urban- ized areas. This study will be of interest to armed forces and intelligence com- munity personnel planning for or conducting operations in urban areas. It will also be of interest to any armed forces, law enforce- ment, and intelligence community personnel with the need to assess and address the changing threat conditions emerging from urban- ization. This research was undertaken for the Assistant Secretary of the Army for Acquisition, Logistics, and Technology and was conducted in the Force Development and Technology Program of RAND Arroyo Cen- ter. The Arroyo Center is a federally funded research and develop- ment center sponsored by the United States Army. iii iv Street Smart: IPB for Urban Operations For more information on RAND Arroyo Center, contact the Director of Operations (telephone 310-393-0411, extension 6500; FAX 310- 451-6952; e-mail [email protected]), or visit the Arroyo Center’s Web site at http://www.rand.org/ard/. CONTENTS Preface ......................................... iii Figures ......................................... ix Tables.......................................... xi Summary ....................................... xiii Acknowledgments................................. xxi Abbreviations .................................... xxiii Chapter One INTRODUCTION .............................. 1 Chapter Two INTELLIGENCE PREPARATION OF THE BATTLEFIELD: AN OVERVIEW ................................ 11 Current Doctrinal IPB Step One: Define the Battlefield Area .................................... 13 Current Doctrinal IPB Step Two: Describe the Battlefield’s Effects ......................... 17 Current Doctrinal IPB Step Three: Evaluate the Threat... 20 Current Doctrinal IPB Step Four: Develop Enemy Courses of Action ................................. 21 Identification and Incorporation of Intelligence Requirements: How IPB Focuses Operational Planning and Intelligence Gathering ............ 23 Chapter Three CHALLENGES POSED BY URBANIZED TERRAIN ....... 25 Underlying Terrain ............................. 26 v vi Street Smart: IPB for Urban Operations Buildings .................................... 27 Infrastructure ................................. 30 People ...................................... 32 Shortfalls in Current IPB Doctrine .................. 36 Chapter Four IPB FOR URBAN OPERATIONS STEP ONE: DEFINE THE OPERATING ENVIRONMENT ........... 39 Defining the Urban Area of Operations .............. 41 Urban Area(s) of Interest ......................... 46 Urban Battlespace.............................. 48 Characterizing Relevant Features of the Operational Area and Identifying Intelligence Requirements ........ 48 Chapter Five IPB FOR URBAN OPERATIONS STEP TWO: DESCRIBE THE OPERATING ENVIRONMENT’S EFFECTS..................................... 51 Population Analysis ............................ 54 Demographic Analysis and Cultural Intelligence ...... 56 Assessing the OCOKA Factors of the Population (Newly Introduced) ............................... 67 Information Operations Analysis (Newly Introduced) .. 70 Non-U.S. Actor Analysis ........................ 73 Urban Terrain Analysis .......................... 76 Analysis of an Urban Area’s Underlying Terrain ...... 77 Analysis of an Urban Area’s Construction ........... 78 Analysis of an Urban Area’s Infrastructure .......... 84 Urban Weather Analysis ......................... 84 Summary of IPB Step Two for Urban Operations ....... 87 Chapter Six IPB FOR URBAN OPERATIONS STEP THREE: IDENTIFY AND EVALUATE THREATS AND RELEVANT INFLUENCES ................................. 89 Current Dilemmas of Threat Evaluation for Urban Operations ............................... 90 Why Urban Areas Pose Dilemmas for Traditional Threat Evaluation................................ 90 Doctrinal Dilemmas of Threat Evaluation ........... 92 Identifying Threats and Relevant Influences: The Continuum of Relative Interest ................ 94 Contents vii A New Definition of Threat...................... 96 Urban Adversary and Relevant Influences Evaluation .... 114 Tools Used to Assess the Urban Adversary .......... 118 Summary of Step Three of IPB for Urban Operations .... 122 Chapter Seven IPB FOR URBAN OPERATIONS STEP FOUR: DEVELOP NON-U.S. COURSES OF ACTION .......... 122 Developing Non-U.S. Courses of Action .............. 124 Further Incorporating the Continuum of Relative Interests into COA Development ............... 129 Analyzing the Higher-Order Effects ............... 130 Chapter Eight RECOMMENDATIONS .......................... 133 Recommendations ............................. 133 Urban Augmentations to Current IPB Doctrine ........ 136 Appendix: WEB SITES FOR CONDUCTING URBAN IPB..... 139 Bibliography ..................................... 143 FIGURES 1.1. Broad Street Area Cholera Cases ................ 3 2.1. IPB and the MDMP .......................... 12 2.2. Doctrinal IPB Step One ....................... 15 2.3. Designating the Urban AO..................... 17 2.4. Doctrinal IPB Step Two ....................... 19 2.5. Doctrinal IPB Step Three ...................... 21 2.6. Doctrinal IPB Step Four....................... 22 3.1. Utility and Public Works Infrastructure ........... 31 3.2. Suggested Labels for the Four Steps of IPB ......... 37 4.1. Designating the Urban AO..................... 44 5.1. Developing Cultural Intelligence in Northern Ireland . 59 5.2. Sample Relationship Matrix.................... 63 5.3. Perception Assessment Matrix: Perceptions of the Host City Population ......................... 66 5.4. OCOKA for Terrain and Population, Examples ...... 71 5.5. Information Source Analysis Matrix (Newly Introduced)................................ 74 5.6. The Importance of Non-U.S. Actor Analysis ........ 75 5.7. How Underlying Terrain Affects Urban Operations: Mitrovica ................................. 79 6.1. Doctrinal Categories for Assessing the Population ... 94 6.2. The Continuum of Relative Interests ............. 99 6.3. Population Element Capabilities Assessment Matrix (Newly Introduced) .......................... 103 6.4. Relationship Mapping Techniques .............. 110 6.5. Incident Overlay ............................ 119 6.6. Time Event Chart ........................... 120 6.7. Pattern Analysis Plot Chart .................... 121 ix TABLES 3.1. Urban Populations’ Effects on Operations and Analysis .................................. 33 4.1. Some Relevant Questions for Defining the AO and AOI...................................... 45 5.1. Existing Demographic Analysis Products for IPB .... 57 5.2. Sample Cultural Intelligence Products for Urban IPB . 60 5.3. Population OCOKA .......................... 68 5.4. Terrain Analysis Products ..................... 81 5.5. Situational Awareness Products ................. 83 5.6. Products Used to Identify and Assess Critical Infrastructure .............................. 85 6.1. Examples of Enemy Urban Warfare Tactics, Strategies, and Weapons ...................... 116 7.1. Sample Questions to Consider When Developing Courses of Action ........................... 126 7.2. Step-by-Step Outline of Analysis of Competing Hypotheses................................ 127 xi SUMMARY From the beginning of the history of conflict, gathering information about one’s foe and using it against him has been a critical precept for success in war. Having superior knowledge about the terrain and weather is also a well-accepted criterion for achieving
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