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30 HERALD.Indd A publication of Ethiopia & Eritrea RPCVs — an affiliate of the National Peace Corps Association The HERALD \Summer 2005 — Number 30 The Ethiopian Election A bit of progress, a lot of uncertainty by Barry Hillenbrand (Debre Marcos 63–65) FIGURING OUT WHO WON — and who lost — the In the closing days of the campaign at least 250,000 May 15 election in Ethiopia has not been easy. What supporters of the opposition jammed Meskel Square Inside is sure is that the election took many twists and in Addis and heard speakers demanding the end of turns, some of them good, some of them bad — and 14 years in power of Prime Minister Meles Zenawi. Back to Debre Marcos 5 many unexpected. “What the people are saying today is, ‘We want Reviews 8 change,’” CUD president Hailu Shawel told the The pre-election period was filled with high crowd. “We are going to win, I guarantee it.” Not Ethiopia news 14 hopes. Campaigning by the government party, to be outdone, Meles’s EPRDF attracted a crowd — the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Eritrea news 19 some estimated it to be about 600,000 — to a rally Front (EPRDF), and the opposition groups includ- at the same venue. More speeches and predictions Books arrive 23 ing the Coalition for Unity and Democracy (CUD) of victory. The independent press, which blossomed and its ally, the United Ethiopian Democratic Forces during the election, covered it in detail. Friends 24 (UEDF), was spirited. “Never before in Ethiopian E&E RPCVs 25 history has there been such an open debate in the While enthusiasm for the election was not as in- country,” said Tim Clarke, chief of a delegation of tense in the countryside as it was in the main cities Contacts 26 election observers sent from the European Union. and towns, more than 25 million of Ethiopia’s 71 “For people who have been here a long time, it’s a million people registered to vote. On election day Join 27 miracle what is happening these days. Yes, there the turn out was 90 per cent. Polling stations were are deficiencies, but this is only the third election overwhelmed and former President Jimmy Carter in the country’s history.” Large groups of foreign said that his group concluded that the poll was “as election observers came into Ethiopia. Then the good as any we’ve seen.” He said that “my im- government in a fit of nervousness, expelled several pression is that the reported irregularities did not of them. After an uproar of complaints, the govern- impede the ability of voters to express their view.” ment relented and offered to re-admitt them. A Observers from the EU, which turned out an impres- senior member of the EU delegation quit in a huff. sive force of observers, and from various African countries concurred. more > Both the opposition and the government parties In mid-August, three months after the election, the were quick to claim victory before the ballots were National Election Board announced that its review even close to being counted. The opposition, which of complaints about irregularities was complete. had only 12 seats in the outgoing Parliament, was They awarded victories to Meles’ ruling party, buoyed by winning all 23 seats in Addis. Gov- the EPRDF, in 296 seats. Since a majority of 264 is ernment party stars such as the mayor of Addis, needed to form a new government, Meles an- Arkebe Orkubaye, and his deputy, Hilawe Yoseph, nounced that he would begin selecting a new cabi- went down in flames. Also defeated were Education net. The Board affirmed that opposition parties and Minister Genet Zewdie, Capacity Building Minis- independent candidates won a total of 174 seats. ter Teferra Walwa and Revenue Minister Getachew Parties affiliated with the ruling EPRDF won another Belay. The government claimed that returns in rural 20 seats. The Board ordered that new elections be areas were going their way, but conceded that as held in August in 32 constituencies — or parts of many as a third of the seats could go to the opposi- constituencies — where the results could not be tion. accurately determined. Also in August, voting for 23 seats took place for the first time in the remote As the counting progressed — results were first areas of Somali state. promised on June 10 and then postponed again to July — charges of fraud in the tally began to The opposition rejected the results announced by surface. The opposition claimed the government the Election Board. Hailu Shewal, chairman of the had stopped counting and was making up results. CUD, said “It is not rigging as some call it, it is Students began demonstrations and on June 8, the simple burglary. The Meles’ government has lost third day of protests, troops opened fire. At least the election and we are not going to accept the 36 protesters and bystanders were killed in Addis. results.” The opposition will go to court. And talk Strikes closed the city down. Arrests of politicians, of protests, strikes and a campaign of civil disobe- students, journalists and activists followed. Oppo- dience was heard around Addis. But leaders from sition leader Hailu Shawel was placed under house the African Union, the EU and the US all urged calm arrest and other opposition figures detained. and dialogue. Outside appeals ultimately cooled tempers. A letter As the HERALD goes to press, the election process is signed by 22 ambassadors resident in Addis, many still not completely resolved. But the good news is from nations which donate generously to food aid, that for the first time Ethiopia stands the possibil- called for restraint on all sides. ity of having a vigorous opposition with seats in Parliament. The ruling party is slowly realizing that On June 10, two days after the shooting, the gov- they no longer have a monopoly on power and that ernment and the opposition parties signed an the international community is watching develop- agreement brokered by diplomats from the EU, the ments closely. As Ambassador Clarke told Fortune US and the African Union. The parties promised Magazine in Addis: “The ruling party has to under- to avoid violence and confrontation. They also stand that they should be inclusive and take into agreed to abide by decisions made by the National account the opposition’s views. And I will pass the Electoral Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) in the disputed message to the opposition parties that the inter- tallying process. The government agreed to begin national community will try to support everything releasing those detained. Irish, Swiss and American they are doing to be integrated into the overall diplomats toured Addis’ prison checking on those process.” Stay tuned. A new—if uncertain—era of behind bars. It was a rare example of comprise in Ethiopian politics has begun. Ethiopian politics. 2 THE HERALD only human nature that they felt rather threat- The Election ened. They assumed they would win handily. The opposition’s mass rally might have raised ques- A prospective tions in some of their minds that this was going to David Shinn, a career foreign service officer, was be a very different kind of election than what they US Ambassador to Ethiopia from 1996 to 1999. He is had expected. now a professor at George Washington University’s Will we ever know who won? Elliott School of International Affairs. Before all the I hope we do because it is so critical that the will results of the elections were announced, he an- of the people prevails however it turns out. The swered some questions from THE HERALD. process that has been established which involves Just how important was this election? representatives of the National Electoral Board, the Potentially it has the ability to serve as a watershed parties and at least one international observer from in several thousand years of Ethiopia political his- the African Union, the EU or the Carter Center of- tory. If, in fact, the will of the people is exercised fers the possibility that there could be final results in this election in a transparent manner, it will be that for the most part reflect the actual vote of the the first time ever that has happened. That has the people. potential for setting a precedent that will change What happens if the opposition gets more than a the course of Ethiopian history. third of the seats in Parliament? What was good about this election? If you start with a base of 37% for the opposition This is the only election where you had at least an — and it could be more — there is no question that attempt to level the political playing field prior it will enliven Parliament at the minimum. As I to the election so that opposition groups could understand it, it takes only a third to propose and express their views so openly. And if you listen to block certain kinds of legislation. That really does the international observers, you can say that the change the ballgame. Parliament is no longer a balloting itself seems to have taken place in a gen- rubber stamp. It becomes a viable organization. erally fair manner. But will the opposition hold together? And the bad? That’s up for debate. Once this is all over with and Things started to deteriorate after the balloting was the results are accepted, you will see the develop- over. ment of differences and tensions among the op- position groups. For example, the Oromo Federalist Were the results, as far as we know them, a sur- Democratic Movement, which has only 11 seats, has prise to the opposition? made clear that it wants the continuation of ethnic I don’t know if in their own minds the opposition federalism, and that runs contrary to the Coali- was surprised or not with how well it did.
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