Historical Earthquakes, Paleoseismology, Neotectonics and Seismic Hazard: New Insights and Suggested Procedures DOI: 10.23689/fidgeo-3866 How well does known seismicity between the Lower Rhine Graben and southern North Sea reflect future earthquake activity? Thierry Camelbeeck1, Kris Vanneste1, Koen Verbeek1, David Garcia-Moreno1,2, Koen van Noten1 & Thomas Lecocq1 1 Royal Observatory of Belgium:
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[email protected] Abstract th Since the 14 century, moderate seismic activity with 14 earthquakes of magnitude MW≥5.0 occurred in Western Europe in a region extending from the Lower Rhine Graben (LRG) to the southern North Sea. In this paper, we investigate how well this seismic activity could reflect that of the future. The observed earthquake activity in the LRG is continuous and concentrates on the Quaternary normal faults delimiting the LRG, which are also the source of large surface rupturing Holocene and Late Pleistocene earthquakes. The estimated magnitude of these past earthquakes ranges from 6.3±0.3 to 7.0±0.3 while their average recurrence on individual faults varies from ten thousand to a few ten thousand years, which makes foreseeing future activity over the long-term possible. Three of the largest historical earthquakes with MW≥5.5 occurred outside the LRG. Late Quaternary activity along the fault zones suspected to be the source of two of these earthquakes, i.e. the 1580 Strait of Dover and 1692 northern Belgian Ardennes earthquakes, is very elusive if it exists.