Clean Air VI Conference Workshop on Clean Development Mechanism
“THE CLEAN DEVELOPMENT MECHANISM” A FRAMEWORK FOR CO-OPERATION WITH DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
Maria da Graça Carvalho Neven Duic Luís Manuel Alves
Instituto Superior Técnico, Technical University of Lisbon Dept. Mechanical Engineering Av. Rovisco Pais, 1049-001 LLisbon,isbon, PORTUGPORTUGALAL OBJECTIVES OF TH PRESENTATION
To show how CDM may:
Ö help Europe to fulfil the Kyoto Targets. Ö promote European investment opportunities. Ö enable European industry to disseminate European clean technologies in Developing Countries. Ö attract the interest of investors, banks, private sectors and donors. Ö raise public awareness for the successful implementation of the Kyoto requirements. CONTENTS
Ö The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol. Ö The current status of the negotiation process. Ö The Kyoto Protocol Flexible Mechanisms. Ö The Clean Development Mechanism. Ö The strategy to implement CDM in Developing Countries:
x Small Island Developing Country special case: Cape Verde, Islands of Santo Antão and Santiago;
x Least Developed Country special case: Mozambique, South- Eastern Africa;
x Developing Country special case: Brazil, South America. Ö Conclusions - CDM: where to go from here. THE CONVENTION FOR CLIMATE CHANGE
Ö Commitments of the Parties - Developed Countries (Annex I), Countries with Economies in Transition and Developing Countries (non-Annex I) - for stabilization of greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Ö Recognition of the role of the Annex I Parties to stabilise GHG emissions. Ö Adoption by Annex I Parties of Policies and Measures for climate change mitigation and commitments to assist non-Annex I Parties to achieve sustainable development - technology transfer, capacity building and financial resources. Ö Recognition of the role of research and systematic observation, and education, training and public awareness. COMMITMENTS OF ALL PARTIES
To reduce the impact of GHG emissions on the global climate, all Parties must: Ö Adopt national programs for the mitigation of the effects of climate change and develop strategies for adaptation; Ö Take in consideration climate change issues into relevant social, economic and environment policies; Ö Co-operate on scientific, technical and educational matters; Ö Promote public education and information. committing the Developed Country Parties (Annex I) to: Ö Take measures to stabilise GHG emissions to the 1990 level by the year of 2000; Ö Financially and technically support Developing Countries (Non- Annex I Parties). THE KYOTO PROTOCOL
Ö International agreement adopted on December 10, 1997, by the Parties participating on the third session of the Conference of the Parties, in Kyoto, Japan.
Ö The Kyoto Protocol states that all 38 Parties included in Annex B shall, individually or jointly, reduce their aggregate anthropogenic carbon dioxide equivalent emissions of 6 GHG by at least 5% below 1990 levels in the commitment period 2008-2012.
Ö This Protocol will enter into force when not less than 55 Parties to the Convention, incorporating Parties included in Annex I which accounted in total for at least 55% of the total carbon dioxide emissions for 1990 of the Parties included in Annex I, have deposited their instruments of ratification, acceptance, approval and accession. CONTENTS OF THE KYOTO PROTOCOL
Ö Policies and Measures;
Ö Acquisition, monitoring and inventory of data - National Communications;
Ö Compliance;
Ö Relations with Developing Countries (Transfer of Technology);
Ö Flexible Mechanisms - Emissions Trading (Article 17), Joint Implementation (Article 6) and CLEAN DEVELOPMENT MECHANISM (Article 12). FLEXIBLE MECHANISMS
Ö JI - for the purpose of meeting its commitments, any Annex I Party may transfer to, or acquire from, other such Party emission reduction units resulting from projects aimed at reducing anthropogenic emissions of GHG at any economic sector. Ö ET - Annex B Parties may participate in emissions trading for the purposes of fulfilling their commitments, being this suplemental to domestic actions for the purpose of meeting quantified quantified emission limitation and reduction. Ö CDM - to assist Parties non-Annex I Parties in achieving sustainable development and contributing to the ultimate objective of the Convention, and to assist Annex I Parties in achieve compliance with their quantified emission limitation and reduction commitments. THE CLEAN DEVELOPMENT MECHANISM (CDM)
Ö Will allow Annex I countries to invest in emission- saving projects in Developing Countries and gain credit for the savings achieved through the generation of Certified Emission Reductions that they can use to contribute to compliance of their commitments. Ö Is designed to minimise significantly the cost of achieving Kyoto objectives. Ö Is an effective tool for the promotion of the use of clean technologies by Developing Countries. THE UNFCCC NEGOTIATION PROCESS
Ö An agreement was not reached at CoP6, in the Hague (November 2000) on the President of CoP6 (Dutch Minister of Environment, Mr. Pronk) Document. Ö Although the difficulties of the negotiations and the outcome from The Hague, the UNFCCC Parties held on continuing regular dialogues for the ratification of the Protocol. Ö The President of CoP6 issued a new document (basis for agreement) on April 2001. Ö The Parties agreed on meeting in Bonn (July 2001) to discuss the proposals of the document, in what is already known as CoP6-bis. Ö Although President Bush latest declaration on the faith if USA Kyoto Protocol commitments, the great majority of the Parties, with EU and its Member States at the front platoon, still hold to ratify Kyoto. EUROPEAN CLIMATE CHANGE PROGRAMME (ECCP)
Ö ECCP was established in June 2000 to help identify the most envionmentally and cost effective additional measures enabling the EU to meet its target under the Kyoto Protocol, namely an 8% reduction in GHG from 1990 levels by 2008-2012. Ö ECCP has been set as a multi-stakeholder consultative process focussed on energy, transport, industry, research and agriculture and the issue of ET within the EU. Ö Seven technical Working Groups were established which work was co- ordinated with other on-going EU activities, such as Joint Expert Groups on Transport and Environment, and on Fiscal Measures, as well as the Sixth Environmental Action Programme and the EU Strategy for Sustainable Development. EUROPEAN CLIMATE CHANGE PROGRAMME (ECCP)
Ö ECCP investigated more than 40 measures and could identify cost- effective options totalling 664-765 MtCO2eq. Ö ECCP Report was presented on July 2-3, 2001, in Brussels - the Report classifies the measures in 3 different categories, to allow a better indication of the short-term potential of cost-effective measures at the EU level: y measures at an advance stage of preparation - 8 measures representing an estimated 240 MtCO2eq cost-effective emission reduction potential; y measures in the pipeline - 11 measures with an estimated cost- effective emission reduction potential of about 140 MtCO2eq; y measures needing further work - 22 measures. CDM - HOW TO GET THERE?
Ö The Kyoto Protocol says little about how CDM should be designed and implemented- a number of functions will need to be performed: Î International Functions: y Certification of CDM eligible project activities; y Emissions additionality and baseline setting; y Quantification, certification and pricing of ERUs; y Assistance for funding for certified projects; y System to track ERU trades; y Protecting vulnerable players. Î National Functions: y Domestic monitoring and verification of baselines; y Registration of third-party certification entities y Certification of projects; y Setting national or sectoral emissions inventories. EU CAPACITY BUILDING FOR CDM
Ö Identification and elimination of structural and operational barriers. Ö Articulation of the public and private sectors. Ö Introducing CDM perspectives into financing policies for development at bilateral and multilateral levels. Ö Strengthen R&D Programmes directed to the needs of globalisation and measures to achieve Kyoto Objectives. Ö Reinforcement of technical, business, marketing, organisational know- how, legislative, regulatory and enforcing skills of both public and private sectors. Ö Improving SMEs capacities on risk analysis of environment friendly technology projects. DEVELOPING COUNTRIES CAPACITY BUILDING FOR CDM
Ö Identification and removal of institutional and other barriers. Ö Creation of a framework for CDM implementation. Ö Elaboration of a methodology to assess CDM project direct benefits and co-benefits. Ö Identification of a methodology for mapping CDM potential. Ö Identification of potential CDM projects. Ö Elaboration of pre-feasibility studies on potential CDM project impacts. IST PROJECTS AND PROPOSALS ON CAPACITY BUILDING AND CDM
Implemented projects: Ö Analysis of the Power Market and the Potential for Market Penetration of EU Innovative Technologies in Cabo Verde Islands - EU Thermie Programme. Ö Assistance to Energy Policy Implementation in Cabo Verde Islands - EU Synergy Programme. Ö Assistance to Energy Policy Implementation in Mozambique- EU Synergy Programme. On-going project: Ö Facilitating the Kyoto Protocol Objectives by CDM in Small Island Developing States - EU DG Development. Submitted proposals: Ö FlexMechs - Integrating Flexible Mechanisms of the Kyoto Protocol into the Member States Energy and Environmental Policies Ö Enabling Activities for the Implementation of CDM in South American Countries. IST WORK FOR CDM DESIGN AND IMPLEMENTATION
Ö Showing the potential influence of Kyoto Protocol Financial Mechanisms on Energy Planning and Energy Technology Transfer in Developing Countries. Ö Showing potentials of assumed rules of CDM on influencing future CO2 emissions. Ö Illustrating the cases of: y Small Island Developing State - CDMSIDS project; y Least Developing Country - Synergy Mozambique project; y Developing Country: CDM Brazil. CAPE VERDE MAP SMALL ISLANDS SPECIAL CASE
Ö High price of small scale fossil fuel technology (diesel).
Ö Possible competitiveness of renewable energy.
Ö Cape Verde
Ö Wind as competitive energy source in electricity production (8% of total).
Ö High dependency on diesel in electricity production. CASE: SANTO ANTÃO OBJECTIVES
Ö showing particular case of a rural small island with low carbon intensity.
Ö showing the potential of CDM on investing into clean energy technology in Developing Countries. CASE: SANTO ANTÃO
Electricity production - island of Santo Antão Case for CDM 2000-2030
Scenario 1: Business as usual* – Diesel only Scenario 2: 30% RE - 25% Wind + 5% PV Scenario 3: 30% Wind energy Scenario 4: as scenario 2 with declining prices of RET
* based on studies by Jansénio Delgado et al.: Perspectivas de desenvolvimento, Plano director de electricidade de Santo Antão, 1997, Cape Verde, and Diagnóstico de situação local, Plano director de electricidade de Santo Antão, 1997, Cape Verde EVALUATION OF SOLAR POTENTIAL
Clear skies Typical day •Altitude Gp •Visibility Global radiation measurement at weather stations •Climatic Zones •Solar Zenith •Soil Reflection •Latitude Gp Kh # # Vila Rib.Gran. U # # K = N # Lugar de Guene p Boca de Coruja # # Pinhão Cha de igreja # # # # # # Vila das Pombas U # # # Eito G # # # # # # João Afonso # hp # # Campo de Cao # # # # # # # # # # Cabo da Ribeira Garca de Cima # #
# # # # Lom. de Figueira Pico da Cruz Alto Mira # # # # # Ribeirão Fundo # Morro do Vento # # # Hourly Maps of # Jorge Luis Lagoa
# Rib. dos Bodes Cirio # # # # # Rib. Fria SIG # radiation and Cha de Morte C.das Vacas GISSIG Porto Novo SIG Monte Trigo # # Radiação média anual (wh/m2) SIG # SIG 3897.817 - 3982.671 Tabuga diffuse # 3982.671 - 4067.524 SIG Mato Estreito # # # Manuel Lopes 4067.524 - 4152.378 X Catano # 4152.378 - 4237.232 Lombo da# s Lanças 4237.232 - 4322.085 Spatial Model Tarrafal # 4322.085 - 4406.939
# 4406.939 - 4491.793 4491.793 - 4576.646 4576.646 - 4661.5 No Data
010Kilometers Global radiation grid Ghp estimated with clear skies Gh MAP OF SOLAR ENERGY RESOURCES
#
# Vila Rib.Gran. U # # N # Lugar de Guene # Boca de Coruja # Pinhão Cha de igreja # # # # # # Vila das Pombas U # # # Eito # # # # # # João Afonso Campo de Ca#o # # # # # # # # # # # # Cabo da Ribeira Garca de Cima # #
# # # # Lom. de Figueira Pico da Cruz Alto Mira # # # # # Ribeirão Fundo # Morro do Vento # # # # Jorge Luis Lagoa
# Rib. dos Bodes Cirio # # # # # Rib. Fria # Cha de Morte C.das Vacas Monte Trigo Porto Novo # # # Radiação média anual (wh/m2) Tabuga 3897.817 - 3982.671 # 3982.671 - 4067.524 Mato Estreito # # # Manuel Lopes 4067.524 - 4152.378 Catano # 4152.378 - 4237.232 Lombo da# s Lanças 4237.232 - 4322.085 Tarrafal # 4322.085 - 4406.939 4406.939 - 4491.793 # 4491.793 - 4576.646 4576.646 - 4661.5 No Da t a
010Kilometers ZONES WITH POTENTIAL FOR EXPLORATION OF SOLAR ENERGY EVALUATION OF WIND ENERGY POTENTIAL COMBINATION OF SIG AND WASp WASP
Orography SIGSIG SIGSIG
Surface Roughness #
# # Vila Rib.Gran. U # N # # # # Cha de igreja # # # Vila das Pombas U # # # # # # # # # # # # Corda # # # # # # # # Obstacles # # # # Cabo da Ribeira Janela # #
# Pico da Cruz # # # # # # # # #
# # # #
# # # # # # # Port o Novo # # #
# velocidade média (m/s) # # # 0 = vel
# 0 < vel <4 # 4 < vel < 5 Measts # 5 < vel < 6
# 6 < vel < 7 7 < vel < 8 8 < vel < 11 No Data 0 10 Kilometers GIS MAP OF WIND ENERGY RESOURCES
#
# # Vila Rib.Gran. U # N # # # # Cha de igreja # # # Vila das Pombas U # # # # #
# # # # # # # # # Corda # # # # # # # # # # Cabo da Ribeira Janela # #
# Pico da Cruz # # # # # # # # #
# # # #
# # # # # # # Porto Novo # # #
# velocidade média (m/s) # # # 0 = vel
# 0 < vel <4 # 4 < vel < 5
# 5 < vel < 6
# 6 < vel < 7 7 < vel < 8 8 < vel < 11 No Da t a
010Kilometers ZONES WITH POTENTIAL FOR EXPLORATION OF WIND ENERGY TEMPERATURE OF OCEAN SURFACE
S Antão
CABO VERDE CHEMICAL COMPOSITION OF THERMAL SOURCES
K K Ribeira dos Órgãos Varzinha Mg Mg Ca Na Ca Cl Na SO HCO Cl
NO SO
Lagedos K Ribeira dos Órgãos: Mg prevalence of chloride typical of sea wtaer Ca Na Varzinha e Lagedos: Cl + SO water with high hydrocarbonate and Na ions HCO contents typical of granitic water. NO THERMAL SOURCES IN SANTO ANTÃO
T Reservoir Temperature (Calcedónia) CASE: SANTO ANTÃO
The island of Santo Antão, Cape Verde Santo Antão scenario 1996 2010 2030 Electricity 29% 70% 90% penetration Production [GWh] 2.6 14 50 Load peak [MW] 0.7 2.6 7.5 BAU 6.5 D 11.5 D 6.5 D 11.5 D 25% Wind Installed capacity +1 W +3.5 W + 5% PV 1.9 D [MW] +0.2 PV +0.8 PV 6.5 D 11.5 D 30% Wind +1.3 W +4 W CASE: SANTO ANTÃO
18 18 16 Business as usual 16 30% of RE (Wind+PV) 14 14 12 12 10 10 solar
MW wind 8 MW 8 diesel 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 Year 18 Year 16 30% of Wind Installed capacities 14 12 • Wind does not reduce 10 wind diesel MW 8 significantly the installed diesel 6 capacity needed 4 2 0 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 Year CASE: SANTO ANTÃO
50 50 45 Business as usual 45 30% of RE (Wind+PV) 40 40 35 35 30 30 solar 25 25 wind GWh GWh 20 20 diesel 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 Year Year
50 Electricity production 45 30% of Wind 40 35 •Wind & PV - intermittent sources 30 wind 25 diesel •Diesel - the rest GWh 20 15 10 5 0 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 Year CASE: SANTO ANTÃO
35 350
30 BAU 300 30% RE 25 potential certificate value 250 20 200
15 150 k USD Gg CO2 10 100
5 50 2008-2012 0 0 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 Year
CO2 emissions comparison and potential CDM value (based on OECD study that concluded that in case of emission trading
the price of CO2 reduction is 25 USD/t CO2) CASE: SANTO ANTÃO
Electricity cost:
ÖDiesel (at 45% load) 8 US¢/kWh ÖWind 7 US¢/kWh ÖSolar PV 50 US¢/kWh CASE: SANTO ANTÃO
16 14 • Santo Antão - wind 12 + PV scenario is not 10 viable with current costs
/kWh 8 ˘ US 6 30% RE, w ind & solar PV •CDM does not help 30% RE, w ind & solar PV, including certificates much this scenario 4 BAU 2 • constant prices of 0 RET 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 Year
Comparison of average electricity production price (1999 USD) Scenarios 1-2: Business as usual and 30% RE, wind & solar PV CASE: SANTO ANTÃO
16 14 • Santo Antão - wind 12 scenario is not viable with current 10 costs /kWh
˘ 8 US 6 30% RE, w ind •CDM could help to 30% RE, w ind, including certificates make it viable 4 BAU 2 • constant prices of
0 RET 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 Year Comparison of average electricity production price (1999 USD) Scenarios 1 and 3: Business as usual and 30% wind CASE: SANTO ANTÃO
• Most calculations of RET viability assume static relations between different technologies implied costs • RET are extremely dynamic technologies costwise
Innovation brings fall in cost of RET
ABB: Renewable Energy, Status and Prospects, 1998 CASE: SANTO ANTÃO
16 14 • Santo Antão - wind & PV 12 scenario gets viable 10 with falling prices 8
USc/kWh •CDM helps it to become 6 30% RE, w ind & solar PV 30% RE, falling prices viable sooner 4 30% RE, falling prices, including certificates 2 BAU • falling prices of RET - 0 2% yearly price decline 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 Year for wind and 5% price • Scenarios 1, 2 and 4 - Influence of decline for PV RET innovation • Credibility of BAU as CDM baseline depends on declining prices CASE: SANTO ANTÃO CONCLUSIONS
Ö GHG reduction potential from business as usual scenario baseline.
Ö CDM could help reduce CO2 emissions from electricity production by one third from baseline. Ö Financial and environmental additionality. Ö Contribution to the host country´s sustainable development needs. Ö Opportunity for RET vendors and CDM investors. CASE: SANTIAGO OBJECTIVES
Ö showing particular case of the most populated island of Cape Verde, the island of Santiago.
Ö showing potentials of assumed rules of CDM on influencing future
CO2 emissions.
Ö showing the potentials for investment into RET and supply side energy efficiency technologies. CASE: SANTIAGO
Electricity production - island of Santiago Case for CDM 2000-2030
Scenario 1: Business as usual* – mainly Diesel Scenario 2: 30% Wind energy Scenario 3: Combined cycle + 30% Wind energy Scenario 4: as scenario 2 with declining prices of RET Scenario 5: as scenario 3 with declining prices of RET
* based on study by Michel Patou: Programme de développement à moyen terme du sous-secteur de l’électricité géré par l'entreprise publique d’électricité et d’eau ELECTRA, Ministère de la coordination économique, République du Cap Verte, 1997 LEVELIZED ELECTRICITY COSTS IN PRAIA CASE: SANTIAGO
The island of Santiago, Cape Verde SantSantiagoiago scenarioscenario 1996 20102002 2030 PopulationPopulation 206000 293000246000 436000 ElectricityElectricity 31% 64%37% 91% penetrationpenetration ProductionProduction [G[GWWh]h] 46 52197 11001097 Load peak [M[MW] 6.86.8 14.337 204 50 D BAU 263 D +2.7 W 256 D 30% Wind 50 D 256 D InstalledInstalled capacitycapacity 30% Wind 10 D 30 D +118 W +20 W +118 W [MW][MW] Combined +0+0.9.9 W +2.7 W 164 D Combinedcycle + 43 D +90190 CC D cy30%cle Wind + +10 CC +118+70 CC W 30% Wind +20 W +118 W CASE: SANTIAGO
400 400
350 Business as usual 350 30% Wind 300 300 Wind 250 250 Diesel 200 200 Wind 150 150 Diesel Installed [MW] 100 Installed [MW] 100 50 50 0 0 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 Year 400 Year Installed capacities 350 Combined Cycle + 30% Wind 300 Wind • Wind does not reduce 250 Diesel Combined significantly the installed diesel 200 150
capacity needed Installed [MW] 100
50
0 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 Year CASE: SANTIAGO
1200 1200 Business as usual 30% Wind 1000 1000 Wind Wind 800 800 Diesel Diesel
600 600
400 400 Production [GWh] Production [GWh] 200 200
0 0 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 Year Year 1200 Combined cycle + 30% Wind Electricity production 1000 Wind 800 •Combined cycle - base load Diesel 600 Combined •Diesel - peak load + reserve 400
Production [GWh] 200
0 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 Year CASE: SANTIAGO
900 800 BAU 30% Wind 700 Combined Cycle + Wind 600 500 400 300 200
CO2 emissions [Gg] 100 0 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 Year
CO2 emissions comparison for various scenarios CASE: SANTIAGO
10 9 30% Wind 8 Combined Cycle + Wind 7 6 5 4 3
Credit value, M€ 2 2008-2012 1 0 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 Year Potential CDM value (based on OECD study that concluded that in case of emission trading the
price of CO2 reduction is 25 USD/t CO2 ) CASE: SANTIAGO
Electricity cost:
ÖDiesel 8 EU¢/kWh ÖWind 9 EU¢/kWh ÖCombined cycle 6 EU¢/kWh CASE: SANTIAGO
9.5 • Santiago - wind is not 9.0 viable with current
8.5 costs
8.0 • Combined cycle will be viable later 7.5 BAU 30% Wind Combined Cycle + Wind • CDM could help wind to 7.0 30% Wind + CDM Combined Cycle + Wind + CDM become viable
Average electricity cost, EU¢/kWh Average electricity 6.5 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Year
Comparison of average electricity production price (1999 €) Scenarios 1-3: Possible influence of CDM CASE: SANTIAGO
9.5 9.5
9.0 9.0
8.5 8.5
8.0 8.0
7.5 BAU 7.5 30% Wind BAU 30% Wind, DP Combined Cycle + Wind 7.0 30% Wind + CDM 7.0 Combined Cycle + Wind, DP 30% Wind + CDM, DP Combined Cycle + Wind + CDM Combined Cycle + Wind + CDM, DP Average electricity cost, EU¢/kWh Average electricity cost, 6.5 Average electricity cost, EU¢/kWh 6.5 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Year Year
Scenarios 1, 2 and 4 Scenarios 1, 3 and 5 Influence of RET innovation - 1% declining prices for wind Credibility of BAU as CDM baseline depends on declining prices CASE: SANTIAGO CONCLUSIONS
Ö CDM could help reduce CO2 emissions from electricity production to half baseline value. Ö GHG reduction potential from business as usual scenario baseline. Ö Financial and environmental additionality. Ö Contribution to the host country´s sustainable development needs. Ö Opportunity for RET vendors and CDM investors. CASE: MOZAMBIQUE OBJECTIVES
Ö showing particular case of the Least Developed Country, sparsely populated, with large distances, low energy consumption but rich in resources.
Ö discussing the assumed rules of CDM.
Ö showing the potentials for investment into RET and supply side energy efficiency technologies. MOZAMBIQUE SPECIAL CASE
Ö Sparse population, large distances, low energy consumption, rich in resources - decentralised or integrated electricity system.
Ö High price of small scale fossil fuel technology (diesel).
Ö Mozambique
Ö Competitiveness of large hydro energy.
Ö Large hydro potential installed - 90% for export. CASE: MOZAMBIQUE
Electricity production - Mozambique Possible case for CDM 2000-2030
Scenario 1: Baseline – new power mainly Diesel Scenario 2: Natural gas – new power mainly GT or ST Scenario 3: Natural gas – new power mainly CC Scenario 4: Hydro - new power mainly coming from HPP CASE: MOZAMBIQUE
30 Total 25 Urbana
hões 20 l i m 15 ão, aç 10 popul 5
0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Baseline scenario: population growth CASE: MOZAMBIQUE
4000 80
3500 PIB 3000 60 PIB/cap 2500
2000 40
1500
1000 20 PIB PPP, USD/cap
500 PIB PPP, bilhões USD
0 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Baseline scenario: GDP PPP, and GDP/cap PPP CASE: MOZAMBIQUE
16000 350 Total 14000 Final 300 12000 per capita intensidade 250 10000 200 8000 150 6000 100 4000 2000 50 Cons. de electricidade, GWh Cons. de electricidade,
0 0 Intensidade, kWh/100 USD PIB Cons. final per capita, kWh/cap 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Baseline scenario: Total and final electricity consumption, per capita electricity consumption and electricity intensity CASE: MOZAMBIQUE
16000
14000 Importação 12000 Hídrica Carvão 10000 Gás Gasóleo 8000 GWh 6000
4000
2000
0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Baseline scenario: electricity production (hydro + coal + natural gas + Diesel) and import CASE: MOZAMBIQUE
16000
14000 Importação 12000 Hídrica Carvão 10000 Gás Gasóleo 8000 GWh 6000
4000
2000
0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Natural gas scenario: electricity production (hydro + coal + natural gas + Diesel) and import CASE: MOZAMBIQUE
16000
14000 Importação 12000 Hídrica Carvão 10000 Gás Gasóleo 8000
GWh 6000
4000
2000
0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Hydro scenario: electricity production (hydro + coal + natural gas + Diesel) and import CASE: MOZAMBIQUE
6000
5000 Base GN - Turbina de Gás 4000 GN - Ciclo Combinado Hídrico 3000 ktCO2 2000
1000
0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
CO2 emissions: comparison of scenarios, baseline, gas turbine natural gas, combined cycle natural gas, hydro CASE: MOZAMBIQUE
6000 Hídrico GN - Ciclo Combinado 5000 GN - Turbina de Gás
4000
3000
1000 CER 2000 2008-2012
1000
0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
CDM potential: comparison of scenarios to the baseline - gas turbine natural gas, combined cycle natural gas, hydro CASE: MOZAMBIQUE
160 Hídrico 140 GN - Ciclo Combinado GN - Turbina de Gás 120
100
80 MUSD 60
40 2008-2012
20
0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Potential CDM value: comparison of scenarios to the baseline - gas turbine natural gas, combined cycle natural gas, hydro CASE: MOZAMBIQUE
100 90 Hídrico GN - Ciclo Combinado 80 GN - Turbina de Gás 70 60 50
MUSD 40 30 2008-2012 20 10 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Potential CDM value (15 USD/tCO2): comparison of scenarios to the baseline - GT, CC, hydro CASE: MOZAMBIQUE CONCLUSIONS
Ï Energy Planning methodology combined with consequences of the Kyoto Protocol were presented on the example of Mozambique. Ï Additional advantage of integrated electricity system is higher share of cleaner energy technologies (CC + hydro) and the CDM potential. Ï It is important for Mozambique that large Hydro be included in CDM. Ï It is important for Mozambique that CDM does not include financial additionality condition. Ï In case of using Natural Gas from the CDM point of view advantage is on Combined Cycle technology. Ï Financial potential in CDM for energy projects. CDM - BRAZIL
To carry out preparatory activities for the implementation of CDM in South American with Brazil as a case-study offering a rich diversity of representative possibilities in the South American region.
ANALYSIS A OF BARRIERS ABC = SOUTH AMERICA D DBG = BRAZIL EBF = MATO GROSSO E
B CG F
FRAMEWORK FOR CDM ACTIVITIES CDM - BRAZIL
Font: Brazil: CDM opportunities and benefits – WRI, March 2000 CDM - BRAZIL
Font: Brazil: CDM opportunities and benefits – WRI, March 2000 CONCLUSIONS
⇒ Energy Planning should be done taking into account CDM.
⇒ Large GHG reduction potential in Developing Countries.
⇒ Opportunity for RET vendors and CDM investors.
⇒ Contribution to the host country´s sustainable development needs. CDM - WHERE TO GO FROM HERE
CDM is about: Ö ENVIRONMENT, because it allows non-Annex I Parties to contribute to Kyoto objectives and assist Annex I Parties in meeting their emission limitation commitments; Ö DEVELOPMENT, because it assist non-Annex I Parties in achieving sustainable development and in contributing to the ultimate objective of the UNFCCC; Ö ECONOMY, because CDM projects create emission reduction units (ERUs) which can be purchased by Annex I Parties to contribute to their compliance with their emissions limitation obligations under the Protocol - CDM lowers compliance costs.