James Anderson
World Bank –University of Rhode Island United States Dr. James Anderson leads the World Bank’s Global Program on Fisheries and Aquaculture. He previously chaired the Department of Environmental & Natural Resource Economics at the University of Rhode Island. Dr. Anderson was also the editor of Marine Resource Economics from 1999 through 2011. His recent work has focused on the role of seafood in food security, constraints to aquaculture development and seafood market analysis. FISH 2030 and Shrimp Production Review
James L. Anderson, The World Bank Diego Valderrama, University of Florida Mimako Kobayashi, The World Bank Siwa Msangi, Interna onal Food Policy Research Ins tute
2 Overview
Fish 2030 – Supply and Demand
Shrimp Produc on
3 “Fish to 2030” Modeling Project
• Collabora on: The World Bank, Interna onal Food Policy Research Ins tute (IFPRI), University of Arkansas, and FAO • Projec on of global supply and demand for fish and fish meal & oil using IFPRI’s IMPACT Model • Capture and aquaculture supply modeled • Model expanded since “Fish to 2020” Project o Country groups: 36 115 o Seafood groups: 4 16
4 How the Model Works
• Calibrated using FAO data for 1984-2009 • Exogenous factors shi supply and demand curves • In each country, Produc on + Imports = Consump on + Exports • Equilibrium is reached when S = D globally
5 Defini on of Regions
6 Commodity Groups
7 Total Fish Produc on: 1984-2030
8 Aquaculture Growth
2010 (Data) 2030 (Model)
• Approx. 41% of total • Approx. 51% of total harvest harvest • Approx. 49% of fish for • Approx. 64% of fish for human consump on human consump on • Aquaculture growth • Aquaculture growth 2000-2010 – 79% in 10 yrs 2010-2030 – 66% in 20 yrs • Growth in total supply • Growth in total supply 2000-2010 – 17% in 10 yrs 2010-2030 – 28% in 20 yrs
9 Aquaculture’s Share in Total Harvest
Total Harvest 189.1 Million Tons
10 Other Aquaculture Forecasts
120
Growing fisheries (0.7% per annum) 100 Stagnant fisheries )
• Global consumption rises to 22.5 kg/y 80 tonnes • Global consumption remains at 1996 levels (15.6 kg/y)
60 Fish
40 Production (million (million Production •Technological advances in aquaculture 20 •Baseline scenario •Ecological collapse of fisheries
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Year
Ye (1999) IFPRI (2003) FAO (2004) Wijkstrom (2003)
Source: Hall, S. Blue Frontiers (2011), WorldFish Centre Supply Growth (Capture + Aquaculture)
• More than 50% increase from 2008 to 2030 . Tilapia . Pangasius . Carp . Salmon . Shrimp • 20-40% increase from 2010 to 2030 . Crustaceans . Molluscs . Other Fresh Fish . Other Marine Fish
12 Sources of Aquaculture Supply Growth By Commodity
• More than 100% increase 2008 to 2030 . Tilapia . Shrimp . Demersal . Other marine Fish • 50-100% increase 2008 to 2030 . Pangasius . Carp . Crustaceans . Molluscs . Salmon . Tuna
13 Supply Growth (Capture + Aquaculture) By Region • More than 20% increase 2008 to 2030 . China . Southeast Asia . India . Other South Asia . La n America . Cent./West Asia & North Africa • Less than 10% increase 2008 to 2030 . Europe . North America . Sub-Saharan Africa . Other Asia & Pacific (Korea, etc.) . Japan
14 Consump on Growth
• More than 50% increase 2006 to 2030 . China . India . Other South Asia . Cent./West Asia & N. Africa • Less than 20% increase 2006 to 2030 . Southeast Asia . Sub-Saharan Africa . North America . La n America • Regions with li le growth or decline . Other Asia & Pacific . Europe . Japan
15 Impact of Hypothe cal Disease Outbreak
Scenario: Disease outbreak in Asia shrimp aquaculture in 2015 Assump ons: •produc on declines by 35% in 2015 rela ve to the default projec on for 2015 •Recovery to the default projec on for 2015 takes 5 years •Subsequently resume the original growth path
16 Scenario Results: Impacts on Shrimp Produc on
14.6% drop
17 Long vs. Near Term Forecast • Projec ons with IMPACT Model are based on aggregate and historical data o Useful for deriving global-level forecast o Useful for deriving long-term forecast o But limited foresight into country and species specific details • Next: Complementary informa on from survey of industry and country experts
18 GOAL 2012 Shrimp Produc on Survey Issues & Challenges GOAL 2012 Survey Shrimp Aquaculture Produc on by World Region:
Million MT 1992 - 2014 2012- 2014 Projected annual 4.5 2006 - 2010 growth rate: 4.9% Annual growth rate: 5.0% -9.7% 4.0 Other 3.5 Africa/MidEast Americas 3.0 India/Bangladesh China 2.5 Southeast Asia
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Sources: FAO (2012) for 1992-2010; GOAL (2012) for 2011-2014. Note: M. rosenbergii is not included. Shrimp Aquaculture by Major Producing Regions: 2006 – 2014
Million MT
1.8
1.5 China data include both marine and freshwater production of P. vannamei 1.2 2006-2010 data are from FAO (2012).
0.9
0.6
0.3
0.0 Southeast Asia China India/Bangladesh Americas Africa/MidEast 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Sources: FAO (2012) & GOAL (2012). Note: M. rosenbergii is not included. Shrimp Aquaculture by Major Producing Regions: 2006-2010 vs. 2010-2014
Average Annual Growth Rate 14% 12.20% 12% 2006-2010 2010-2014 10% 7.60% 8% 5.30% 4.80% 6% 4.60% 4% 3.00% 2.40% 2% 0% -2% -1.90% -1.20% -4% -6% -6.00% -8% Southeast Asia China India/Bangladesh Americas Africa/MidEast
Sources: FAO (2012) & GOAL (2012). Note: M. rosenbergii is not considered. Shrimp Aquaculture in Asia: 2006 – 2014
Million MT
1.8 China data include both marine and freshwater 1.5 production of P. vannamei
2006-2010 data are from FAO (2012). 1.2
0.9
0.6
0.3
0.0 China Thailand Vietnam Indonesia India Bangladesh 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Sources: FAO (2012) & GOAL (2012). Note: M. rosenbergii is not included. Shrimp Aquaculture in Asia: 2006-2010 vs. 2010-2014
Average Annual Growth Rate 18% 14.90% 15% 2006-2010 2010-2014 12%
9% 7.60% 8.20%
6% 3.50% 2.80% 2.80% 3%
0% -1.20% -3% -2.90% -6% -4.40% -6.10% -9% China Thailand Vietnam Indonesia India
Sources: FAO (2012) & GOAL (2012). Note: M. rosenbergii is not considered. Shrimp Aquaculture in La n America: 2006 – 2014
Thousand MT
240
200
2006-2010 data are from FAO (2012). 160
120
80
40
0 Ecuador Mexico Brazil Colombia Honduras Nicaragua 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Sources: FAO (2012) & GOAL (2012). Note: M. rosenbergii is not included. Shrimp Aquaculture in La n America: 2006-2010 vs. 2010-2014 Average Annual Growth Rate 36% 29.20% 30% 2006-2010 2010-2014 24%
18% 11.90% 12% 10.60% 11.20% 7.40% 6% 1.80% 1.70% 0.20% 0% -1.80% -6% -4.40% -12% -12.60% -18%
-24% -20.00% Ecuador Mexico Brazil Colombia Honduras Nicaragua
Sources: FAO (2012) & GOAL (2012). Note: M. rosenbergii is not considered. GOAL 2012 Survey World Shrimp Aquaculture (including M. rosenbergii)
Million MT by Species: 1992 - 2014 68% 4.2 72% 71% 65% 3.6 65% Percentages indicate the 3.0 share of P. vannamei. 52%
2.4 1992-2010 data: FISHSTAT (2012). 2012-2014 data: GOAL estimates. 1.8
1.2 15%
0.6
0.0 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
P. vannamei P. monodon M. rosenbergii Other
Sources: FAO (2012) & GOAL (2012). Trends in U.S. Shrimp Import Prices
10.00
9.00
8.00
7.00
6.00
5.00
2000 USD/lb 4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
- 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
<15/lb 31-40 >70/lb Peeled Composite
Source: USDC/NMFS (2012) GOAL 2012 Survey Shrimp Aquaculture (including M. rosenbergii) in Asia by Species: 1992 - 2014 Million MT 64% 3.6 68% 60% 67% 3.0 Percentages indicate the 60% share of P. vannamei.
2.4 46% 1992-2010 data: FISHSTAT (2012). 1.8 2011-2014 data: GOAL estimates. 19%
1.2
0.6
0.0 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
P. vannamei P. monodon M. rosenbergii Other
Sources: FAO (2012) & GOAL (2012). World Landings of
Wild-Caught Shrimp by Species Others/NS Million MT
3.6 Atlantic seabob (Xiphopenaeus kroyeri)
3.2 Common shrimp (Crangon crangon)
Northern white shrimp 2.8 (Penaeus setiferus)
Argentine red shrimp 2.4 (Pleoticus muelleri)
Banana prawn (Penaeus 2.0 merguiensis) Fleshy prawn (Penaeus chinensis) 1.6 Giant tiger prawn (Penaeus monodon) 1.2 Southern rough shrimp (Trachipenaeus curvirostris) 0.8 Northern prawn (Pandalus borealis)
0.4 Akiami paste shrimp (Acetes japonicus)
0.0 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Source: FAO (2012). World Produc on of Shrimp
Million MT Capture Fisheries & Aquaculture 55% 7.0
6.0 Aquaculture accounted for 55% 5.0 of world shrimp supplies in 2010.
28% 4.0
3.0 26 %
2.0
1.0
0.0 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Capture Fisheries Aquaculture Source: FAO (2012). Notes: M. rosenbergii is not included. China includes freshwater production of P. vannamei. World Produc on of Shrimp by Species Capture Fisheries & Aquaculture Combined Million MT
7.0 39 % Others/NS
P. vannamei is the most important species in the world, 28 % 6.0 P. merguiensis with virtually all production coming from aquaculture.
Percentages indicate the share 5.0 P. chinensis of P. vannamei. 4 % Trachypenaeus 4.0 curvirostris Pandalus borealis 3.0 Acetes japonicus
2.0 P. monodon
P. vannamei 1.0
0.0 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Source: FAO (2012). Notes: M. rosenbergii is not included. Freshwater production of P. vannamei in China is included. GOAL 2012 Survey Issues & Challenges in Shrimp Aquaculture All Countries
Diseases *Production costs - Feed/Fishmeal *International market prices Access to disease-free broodstock Production costs - Others Production costs - Fuel Seed stock quality & availability Access to Credit Feed quality and availability Product quality control *International trade barriers Environmental management Banned chemicals / antibiotic use Market coordination Conflicts with other users Public Relations Management Infrastructure
Not Important Moderately Extremely Important Important
Source: GOAL (2012).
Asterisk indicates Top 3 issue in GOAL 2007 Survey Worldwide Top Issues & Challenges in Shrimp Aquaculture 2012 Survey vs. 2011 Survey
International market prices Diseases Production costs - Feed/Fishmeal Environmental management Access to disease-free broodstock Seed stock quality & availability International trade barriers Production costs - Fuel Access to Credit Production costs - Others
Not Important Moderately Extremely Important Important
Source: GOAL (2012). 2012 2011 GOAL 2012 Survey Issues & Challenges in Shrimp Aquaculture - Asia
Diseases *Production costs - Feed/Fishmeal *International market prices Production costs - Fuel Access to disease-free broodstock Seed stock quality & availability Production costs - Others Access to Credit Product quality control Feed quality and availability *International trade barriers Environmental management Banned chemicals / antibiotic use Market coordination Conflicts with other users Public Relations Management Infrastructure
Not Important Moderately Extremely Important Important
Source: GOAL (2012).
Asterisk indicates Top 3 issue in GOAL 2007 Survey GOAL 2012 Survey Issues & Challenges in Shrimp Aquaculture Americas
*Diseases *Production costs - Feed/Fishmeal Access to Credit *International market prices Production costs - Others Feed quality and availability Access to disease-free broodstock Market coordination Seed stock quality & availability Infrastructure Environmental management Production costs - Fuel Product quality control Conflicts with other users Public Relations Management Banned chemicals / antibiotic use International trade barriers
Not Important Moderately Extremely Important Important Source: GOAL (2012).
Asterisk indicates Top 3 issue in GOAL 2007 Survey GOAL 2012 Survey Top Issues & Challenges in Shrimp Aquaculture Asia vs. La n America
Diseases Production costs - Feed/Fishmeal
International market prices Production costs - Others Access to disease-free broodstock Access to Credit
Seed stock quality & availability Feed quality and availability
Production costs - Fuel Market coordination
Not Important Moderately Extremely Important Important
Source: GOAL (2012). Asia Americas Composi on of Shrimp Aquaculture Produc on by Size Categories – Comparison of Survey Data for Asia
100% 7% 5% 5% 9% 8% 12% >70 6% 7% 7% 9% 7% 27% 61-70 10% 80% 12% 10% 15% 15% 46% 51-60 19% 22% 19% 41-50 20% 21% 19% 60% 31-40 22% 19% 26-30 69% 65% 64% 61% 40% 29% 30% 30% 23% 56% 21-25 43% 25% 15% 15-20 20% 17% 18% 16% 14% 9% 9% <15 7% 5% 4% 7% 6% 7% 0% GOAL 2007 GOAL 2008 GOAL 2009 GOAL 2010 GOAL 2011 GOAL 2012 Expected Trends in Shrimp Aquaculture Size Categories - GOAL Survey 2012
Size Category Asia Americas World
<15 Decrease Decrease Decrease 15-20 Increase/Stable Increase Increase/Stable 21-25 Increase/Stable Increase Increase 26-30 Increase/Stable Increase Increase 31-40 Stable Increase Stable 41-50 Stable Stable Stable 51-60 Stable Stable Stable 61-70 Stable Stable/Decrease Stable >70 Stable Stable/Decrease Stable Composi on of Shrimp Aquaculture Produc on by Product Form – Comparison of Survey Data for Asia
100% 3% 6% 8% Other 15% 12% 13% Forms 11% 12% 8% 80% 9% Breaded 19% 18% 20% 25% 22% 15% Cooked 60% 23% 28% 18% Peeled 30% 28% 35% 40% 10% 18% Green / 22% Head-off
20% 19% 22% Green / 19% 33% 24% Head-on 17% 11% 6% 9% 0% GOAL 2007 GOAL 2008 GOAL 2009 GOAL 2010 GOAL 2011 GOAL 2012 Composi on of Shrimp Aquaculture Produc on by Product Form – Comparison of Survey Data for the Americas
100% 3% 6% Other 7% 7% 4% 6% 8% Forms 12% 80% Breaded 34% 45% 41% 53% 46% 31% Cooked 60%
Peeled
40% Green / 57% Head-off 50% 45% 44% 46% 20% 40% Green / Head-on
0% GOAL 2007 GOAL 2008 GOAL 2009 GOAL 2010 GOAL 2011 GOAL 2012 Expected Trends in Shrimp Aquaculture Product Form - GOAL Survey 2012
Product Form Asia Americas World
Green / Head-on Stable Stable/Increase Stable
Green / Head-off Stable/Decrease Decrease Stable/Decrease
Peeled Increase Increase Increase
Cooked Stable/Increase Increase Stable/Increase
Breaded Increase Increase Increase
Other Forms Stable Increase Stable GOAL 2012 Survey Global economic condi ons will be be er in 2013 compared to 2012
Outlook Asia Americas Others
Strongly Agree Ecuador
Agree Malaysia, Taiwan, Thailand Brazil, Mexico
China, Philippines, South Colombia, Nicaragua, Neutral/No Opinion Korea Peru
Madagascar, New Disagree India, Indonesia, Vietnam Honduras, Panama Caledonia
Strongly Disagree GOAL 2012 Survey Feed prices will be lower in 2013 compared to 2012
Outlook Asia Americas Others
Strongly Agree
Agree Colombia
Neutral/No Opinion
China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Brazil, Ecuador, Honduras, Disagree Madagascar Philippines, South Korea, Taiwan Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama
Strongly Disagree India, Thailand, Vietnam Peru New Caledonia GOAL 2012 Survey The global shrimp market will strengthen in 2013 compared to 2012
Outlook Asia Americas Others
Strongly Agree Taiwan Ecuador
China, Malaysia, Philippines, Colombia, Mexico, Agree New Caledonia Vietnam Panama, Peru
India, Indonesia, South Korea, Neutral/No Opinion Honduras Madagascar Thailand
Disagree Brazil, Nicaragua
Strongly Disagree What is the Global Partnership for Oceans and why and how should the seafood sector be engaged? If you are interested, please come talk to me during the conference.
Thank You!