James Anderson World Bank –University of Rhode Island United States Dr. James Anderson leads the World Bank’s Global Program on Fisheries and Aquaculture. He previously chaired the Department of Environmental & Natural Resource Economics at the University of Rhode Island. Dr. Anderson was also the editor of Marine Resource Economics from 1999 through 2011. His recent work has focused on the role of seafood in food security, constraints to aquaculture development and seafood market analysis. FISH 2030 and Shrimp Production Review James L. Anderson, The World Bank Diego Valderrama, University of Florida Mimako Kobayashi, The World Bank Siwa Msangi, Internaonal Food Policy Research Ins8tute 2 Overview Fish 2030 – Supply and Demand Shrimp Producon 3 “Fish to 2030” Modeling Project • Collaboraon: The World Bank, Internaonal Food Policy Research Ins8tute (IFPRI), University of Arkansas, and FAO • Projec8on of global supply and demand for fish and fish meal & oil using IFPRI’s IMPACT Model • Capture and aquaculture supply modeled • Model expanded since “Fish to 2020” Project o Country groups: 36 115 o Seafood groups: 4 16 4 How the Model Works • Calibrated using FAO data for 1984-2009 • Exogenous factors shi\ supply and demand curves • In each country, Produc8on + Imports = Consump8on + Exports • Equilibrium is reached when S = D globally 5 DefiniXon of Regions 6 Commodity Groups 7 Total Fish ProducXon: 1984-2030 8 Aquaculture Growth 2010 (Data) 2030 (Model) • Approx. 41% of total • Approx. 51% of total harvest harvest • Approx. 49% of fish for • Approx. 64% of fish for human consump8on human consump8on • Aquaculture growth • Aquaculture growth 2000-2010 – 79% in 10 yrs 2010-2030 – 66% in 20 yrs • Growth in total supply • Growth in total supply 2000-2010 – 17% in 10 yrs 2010-2030 – 28% in 20 yrs 9 Aquaculture’s Share in Total Harvest Total Harvest 189.1 Million Tons 10 Other Aquaculture Forecasts 120 Growing fisheries (0.7% per annum) 100 Stagnant fisheries ) • Global consumption rises to 22.5 kg/y 80 tonnes • Global consumption remains at 1996 levels (15.6 kg/y) 60 Fish 40 Production (million (million Production •Technological advances in aquaculture 20 •Baseline scenario •Ecological collapse of fisheries 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Year Ye (1999) IFPRI (2003) FAO (2004) Wijkstrom (2003) Source: Hall, S. Blue Frontiers (2011), WorldFish Centre Supply Growth (Capture + Aquaculture) • More than 50% increase from 2008 to 2030 . Tilapia . Pangasius . Carp . Salmon . Shrimp • 20-40% increase from 2010 to 2030 . Crustaceans . Molluscs . Other Fresh Fish . Other Marine Fish 12 Sources of Aquaculture Supply Growth By Commodity • More than 100% increase 2008 to 2030 . Tilapia . Shrimp . Demersal . Other marine Fish • 50-100% increase 2008 to 2030 . Pangasius . Carp . Crustaceans . Molluscs . Salmon . Tuna 13 Supply Growth (Capture + Aquaculture) By Region • More than 20% increase 2008 to 2030 . China . Southeast Asia . India . Other South Asia . Lan America . Cent./West Asia & North Africa • Less than 10% increase 2008 to 2030 . Europe . North America . Sub-Saharan Africa . Other Asia & Pacific (Korea, etc.) . Japan 14 Consumpon Growth • More than 50% increase 2006 to 2030 . China . India . Other South Asia . Cent./West Asia & N. Africa • Less than 20% increase 2006 to 2030 . Southeast Asia . Sub-Saharan Africa . North America . Lan America • Regions with ligle growth or decline . Other Asia & Pacific . Europe . Japan 15 Impact of HypotheXcal Disease Outbreak Scenario: Disease outbreak in Asia shrimp aquaculture in 2015 Assump8ons: •producon declines by 35% in 2015 relave to the default projecon for 2015 •Recovery to the default projec8on for 2015 takes 5 years •Subsequently resume the original growth path 16 Scenario Results: Impacts on Shrimp ProducXon 14.6% drop 17 Long vs. Near Term Forecast • Projec8ons with IMPACT Model are based on aggregate and historical data o Useful for deriving global-level forecast o Useful for deriving long-term forecast o But limited foresight into country and species specific details • Next: Complementary informaon from survey of industry and country experts 18 GOAL 2012 Shrimp ProducXon Survey Issues & Challenges GOAL 2012 Survey Shrimp Aquaculture ProducXon by World Region: Million MT 1992 - 2014 2012- 2014 Projected annual 4.5 2006 - 2010 growth rate: 4.9% Annual growth rate: 5.0% -9.7% 4.0 Other 3.5 Africa/MidEast Americas 3.0 India/Bangladesh China 2.5 Southeast Asia 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Sources: FAO (2012) for 1992-2010; GOAL (2012) for 2011-2014. Note: M. rosenbergii is not included. Shrimp Aquaculture by Major Producing Regions: 2006 – 2014 Million MT 1.8 1.5 China data include both marine and freshwater production of P. vannamei 1.2 2006-2010 data are from FAO (2012). 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.0 Southeast Asia China India/Bangladesh Americas Africa/MidEast 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Sources: FAO (2012) & GOAL (2012). Note: M. rosenbergii is not included. Shrimp Aquaculture by Major Producing Regions: 2006-2010 vs. 2010-2014 Average Annual Growth Rate 14% 12.20% 12% 2006-2010 2010-2014 10% 7.60% 8% 5.30% 4.80% 6% 4.60% 4% 3.00% 2.40% 2% 0% -2% -1.90% -1.20% -4% -6% -6.00% -8% Southeast Asia China India/Bangladesh Americas Africa/MidEast Sources: FAO (2012) & GOAL (2012). Note: M. rosenbergii is not considered. Shrimp Aquaculture in Asia: 2006 – 2014 Million MT 1.8 China data include both marine and freshwater 1.5 production of P. vannamei 2006-2010 data are from FAO (2012). 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.0 China Thailand Vietnam Indonesia India Bangladesh 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Sources: FAO (2012) & GOAL (2012). Note: M. rosenbergii is not included. Shrimp Aquaculture in Asia: 2006-2010 vs. 2010-2014 Average Annual Growth Rate 18% 14.90% 15% 2006-2010 2010-2014 12% 9% 7.60% 8.20% 6% 3.50% 2.80% 2.80% 3% 0% -1.20% -3% -2.90% -6% -4.40% -6.10% -9% China Thailand Vietnam Indonesia India Sources: FAO (2012) & GOAL (2012). Note: M. rosenbergii is not considered. Shrimp Aquaculture in LaXn America: 2006 – 2014 Thousand MT 240 200 2006-2010 data are from FAO (2012). 160 120 80 40 0 Ecuador Mexico Brazil Colombia Honduras Nicaragua 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Sources: FAO (2012) & GOAL (2012). Note: M. rosenbergii is not included. Shrimp Aquaculture in LaXn America: 2006-2010 vs. 2010-2014 Average Annual Growth Rate 36% 29.20% 30% 2006-2010 2010-2014 24% 18% 11.90% 12% 10.60% 11.20% 7.40% 6% 1.80% 1.70% 0.20% 0% -1.80% -6% -4.40% -12% -12.60% -18% -24% -20.00% Ecuador Mexico Brazil Colombia Honduras Nicaragua Sources: FAO (2012) & GOAL (2012). Note: M. rosenbergii is not considered. GOAL 2012 Survey World Shrimp Aquaculture (including M. rosenbergii) Million MT by Species: 1992 - 2014 68% 4.2 72% 71% 65% 3.6 65% Percentages indicate the 3.0 share of P. vannamei. 52% 2.4 1992-2010 data: FISHSTAT (2012). 2012-2014 data: GOAL estimates. 1.8 1.2 15% 0.6 0.0 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 P. vannamei P. monodon M. rosenbergii Other Sources: FAO (2012) & GOAL (2012). Trends in U.S. Shrimp Import Prices 10.00 9.00 8.00 7.00 6.00 5.00 2000 USD/lb 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 - 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 <15/lb 31-40 >70/lb Peeled Composite Source: USDC/NMFS (2012) GOAL 2012 Survey Shrimp Aquaculture (including M. rosenbergii) in Asia by Species: 1992 - 2014 Million MT 64% 3.6 68% 60% 67% 3.0 Percentages indicate the 60% share of P. vannamei. 2.4 46% 1992-2010 data: FISHSTAT (2012). 1.8 2011-2014 data: GOAL estimates. 19% 1.2 0.6 0.0 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 P. vannamei P. monodon M. rosenbergii Other Sources: FAO (2012) & GOAL (2012). World Landings of Wild-Caught Shrimp by Species Others/NS Million MT 3.6 Atlantic seabob (Xiphopenaeus kroyeri) 3.2 Common shrimp (Crangon crangon) Northern white shrimp 2.8 (Penaeus setiferus) Argentine red shrimp 2.4 (Pleoticus muelleri) Banana prawn (Penaeus 2.0 merguiensis) Fleshy prawn (Penaeus chinensis) 1.6 Giant tiger prawn (Penaeus monodon) 1.2 Southern rough shrimp (Trachipenaeus curvirostris) 0.8 Northern prawn (Pandalus borealis) 0.4 Akiami paste shrimp (Acetes japonicus) 0.0 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Source: FAO (2012). World Producon of Shrimp Million MT Capture Fisheries & Aquaculture 55% 7.0 6.0 Aquaculture accounted for 55% 5.0 of world shrimp supplies in 2010. 28% 4.0 3.0 26 % 2.0 1.0 0.0 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Capture Fisheries Aquaculture Source: FAO (2012). Notes: M. rosenbergii is not included. China includes freshwater production of P. vannamei. World Producon of Shrimp by Species Capture Fisheries & Aquaculture Combined Million MT 7.0 39 % Others/NS P. vannamei is the most important species in the world, 28 % 6.0 P. merguiensis with virtually all production coming from aquaculture. Percentages indicate the share 5.0 P. chinensis of P. vannamei.