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ABSTRACT Title of Document: HAWKS TO DOVES: THE ROLE OF PERSONALITY IN FOREIGN POLICY DECISION-MAKING Guy Ziv, Ph. D., 2008 Directed by: Professor Shibley Telhami Anwar Sadat Professor for Peace and Development Department of Government and Politics Why do some hawkish leaders become doves, and what determines whether these leaders’ views affect dramatic change in a state’s foreign policy? Structural and domestic political explanations of foreign policy change tend to overlook the importance of leaders in such change. Political psychologists offer important insight into how and why certain leaders are inclined to revise their beliefs. Two psychological factors in particular hold great promise for explaining leaders’ foreign policy shifts: cognitive openness and cognitive complexity. Cognitively open leaders are receptive to new information and are thus more prone to changing their beliefs than cognitively closed leaders. Similarly, cognitively complex leaders recognize that distinct situations possess multiple dimensions, and so are more likely to engage in adaptive behavior than their cognitively simple counterparts. The primary case explored in this dissertation is that of Shimon Peres, who began his political career as a tough-minded hawk and, in mid-career, transformed into a leading dove. Peres is found to possess particularly high levels of cognitive openness and complexity, thus explaining why his dovish shift was more expansive and occurred sooner than did Yitzhak Rabin’s dovish turn. Begin and Shamir, by contrast, are found to be more cognitively closed and simple than either Peres or Rabin, thus explaining why these hawks remained hawks despite having witnessed the same systemic-structural and domestic political events as Peres and Rabin. While cognitive structure is seen as the key causal variable for the leader’s dovish turn, systemic-structural and domestic political factors serve as the permissive conditions and/or triggering events for this phenomenon. In the case of Peres, his cognitive structure also helps to explain why he was able to wield disproportionate influence on Israeli foreign policy during periods in which he was a secondary political actor. His high degree of cognitive openness enabled him to seek out domestic and international partners in an effort to build coalitions of support for his political agenda. His high degree of cognitive complexity facilitated an understanding of the intricate needs of the many political and bureaucratic actors with whom he dealt, enabling him to win over the necessary support for his agenda. HAWKS TO DOVES: THE ROLE OF PERSONALITY IN FOREIGN POLICY DECISION-MAKING By Guy Ziv Dissertation submitted to the Faculty of the Graduate School of the University of Maryland, College Park, in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy 2008 Advisory Committee: Professor Shibley Telhami, Chair Professor George Quester Professor Miranda Schreurs Professor Vladimir Tismaneanu Professor John Steinbruner © Copyright by Guy Ziv 2008 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Writing a dissertation is a rewarding experience but the process can be difficult, arduous and frustrating. I am indebted to many people who have helped make this process more manageable. Each, in his or her own way, has made a valuable contribution to this project. First and foremost, I would like to thank my dissertation committee for the useful comments, suggestions, and advice each member provided me at various points along the way. I am fortunate to have had a first-rate committee. During my six years at the University of Maryland, Professor Shibley Telhami has been my adviser, mentor, supervisor, and dissertation chair. He has fulfilled each of these roles commendably. During my writing phase, Professor Telhami challenged me to think rigorously about the logic underlying my arguments and offered me sage advice concerning the various theoretical challenges I encountered. He was also instrumental in securing a crucial interview for me with then-Vice Premier Shimon Peres in his Tel Aviv office. I have learned a lot from Professor Telhami and hope to continue to do so for years to come. Professor Miranda Schreurs provided me with invaluable mentorship from day one. Her suggestions concerning methodology proved to be extremely useful in my research design. Moreover, on numerous occasions, Professor Schreurs dispensed with practical advice for which I shall always be grateful. Each of my three other committee members – Professors George Quester, John Steinbruner, and Vladimir Tismaneanu – was extremely helpful to me as well. The graduate seminars I took with these professors were superb, and the feedback I received from each of them on my coursework as well as draft dissertation chapters, was superb. I would like to thank Ann Marie Clark, our Graduate Studies Program Coordinator, for helping me navigate the treacherous waters of the university’s bureaucracy. I thank her for her tireless devotion to the graduate students and for her admirable patience with me. Carol L. Warrington of the University of Maryland’s Office of Information Technology was kind enough to help me format my dissertation so that it conformed to the university’s particular standards. I appreciate her wonderful assistance, which saved me much time and cut down on a lot of frustration. I also wish to thank each of my 54 interviewees for their time and insight. During my fieldwork in Israel, I supplemented interviews with archival research. Several archivists were instrumental in helping me to identify the relevant material for my project. I would like to thank Doron Avi-Ad of the IDF Archives, Michal Saft of the ii Israel State Archives, and Dr. Michael Polishchuk of the Moshe Sharet Israel Labor Party Archive. Throughout this process, two of my closest friends spent a considerable amount of time poring over my work and offering detailed and thought-provoking feedback. I am indebted to Dr. Mohammed M. Hafez and Jonathan Pearl for their constructive suggestions on various drafts of this dissertation. I am also grateful to Dr. Bidisha Biswas, Dr. Ken Cousins, Dr. Eduardo Frajman, Professor Motti Golani, Professor Virginia Haufler, Dr. Juliana Menasce Horowitz, Professor Scott Kastner, David Makovsky, Professor Ami Pedahzur, Professor Brent E. Sasley, Professor Steven L. Spiegel, Dr. Lois Vietri, Professor Martin Wattenberg and Dr. Tim Wedig for their insightful comments and words of wisdom about the process of writing a dissertation. As anyone who has worked on a dissertation knows, moral support from family and friends is of critical importance in what is largely a solitary endeavor. To that end, I thank David Alpern, Michael Auerbach, Helit Barel, Mark Davidson, Jonathan Gershater, Maryana Harouni, Laura Hoegler, Jo-Ann and Noah Hurvitz, Arnaud Kurze, Gilad Lumer, Shoshana and Aaron Marcus, Brett Nemeth, Melanie and Jeff Pollak, Judi Quan, David Rockoff, Kevin Rockoff, Carolyn Rose, Brett Saddler, Hena Schommer, Pete Sickle, Michael Weiss, Dr. Zippora Williams, Dr. Ziv Williams, Carol Yasoian, Daniel and Gali Ziv, Nurit Ziv, Ariell Zimran, and Dr. Bruno Zwass. Each of these individuals has patiently stood by me, providing me with wonderful encouragement along the way. My parents, Dr. Moche and Beverly Ziv, were especially supportive throughout this process. Finally, I appreciate the generous financial support from the American-Israeli Cooperative Enterprise (AICE), which rewarded me with two consecutive Israel Scholar Awards; the Morris Abrams Award in International Relations; Adas Israel Congregation; the Michael J. Pelczar Award for Excellence in Graduate Study; and the Don C. Piper Award. iii TABLE OF CONTENTS Table of Contents......................................................................................................... iv Chapter 1: Introduction...............................................................................................1 1.1 Research Puzzle .....................................................................................1 1.2 The Significance of Studying a Leader’s Hawk-to-Dove Shift.............4 1.3 Research Design.....................................................................................8 1.3.1.1 Variables ........................................................................................8 1.3.2 Case Selection..................................................................................11 1.4 Methods of Inquiry ..............................................................................16 1.4.1 Primary Source Material..................................................................16 1.4.2 Secondary Source Material..............................................................19 1.4.2.1 Data Analysis: Process Tracing, Content Analysis, and Discourse Analysis........................................................................................20 1.5 Summary of Research Findings...........................................................22 1.5.1 Limitations of the Study...................................................................26 1.6 Structure of Dissertation ......................................................................27 Chapter 2:. Rethinking Explanations of Foreign Policy Change…………………..30 2.1.1 Introduction......................................................................................30 2.2 International Relations and the Role of Leaders..................................32 2.2.1 The Foreign Policy Decision-Making Framework ..........................36
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