Auditing Israeli Democracy – 2005 A Decade after the Assassination of Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin Asher Arian, Shlomit Barnea, Pazit Ben-Nun, Raphael Ventura, Michal Shamir The Israel Democracy Institute is an independent body that assists the Knesset and its committees, government offices and institutions, local government bodies, and political parties, through studies and proposals designed to bring about changes and reforms in their manner of operation. In addition, the Israel Democracy Institute fulfills its public charge through the presentation of comparative information on legislative topics and the various ways in which democratic regimes function. It also strives to enrich public discourse and encourage new ways of thinking through the initiation of discussion on topics of current political, social and economic interest, both by bringing together legislators, administrators and academics and through the publication of research findings. The Guttman Center was established at The Israel Democracy Institute in 1998 with the transfer of The Guttman Institute for Applied Social Research to the IDI. Formed in 1949 by Professor Louis Guttman, The Guttman Institute was the pioneer of public opinion research and advances in social science methodology in Israel. The goal of The Guttman Center is to enrich research projects at the IDI and discussions of public policy with data-based information and analyses. Editor-in-Chief Uri Dromi Publishing Director Edna Granit Library Editor Yael Mosheiff Content and Hebrew Language Editor Carmit Gai Linguistic Editor (Hebrew) Ronit Tapiero Translator Batya Stein English Editor Asher Weill Copy Editor Naomi Shmueli Production Coordinator Nadav Shtechman Design Ron Haran Printed in Jerusalem, by Art Plus, Ltd. No portion of this book may be reproduced, copied, photographed, recorded, translated, stored in a data base, broadcast or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, optic, mechanical or otherwise. Commercial use in any form of the material contained in this book without the express permission in writing of the publisher is strictly forbidden. © The Israel Democracy Institute, Jerusalem, 2005 ISBN 965-519-018-8 Asher Arian is scientific director of the Guttman Center at The Israel Democracy Institute and a professor of political science at the University of Haifa. He is Distinguished Professor at the PhD Program in Political Science at the City University of New York Graduate Center. Shlomit Barnea and Pazit Ben-Nun are researchers at The Israel Democracy Institute. Raphael Ventura, PhD in Political Science, is Head of the Archive Unit, Guttman Center, The Israel Democracy Institute. Michal Shamir is a professor of political science at Tel Aviv University and is the incumbent of The Alvin Z. Rubinstein Chair in Political Science. Our books may be ordered from: The Israel Democracy Institute, P.O. Box 4482, Jerusalem 91044 Tel: 02-5392888, 1-800-202222; Fax: 03-5488640 Website: www.idi.org.ilwww.idi.org.il Contents List of Figures and Tables 17 Acknowledgements 10 Preface – Prof. Arye Carmon 11 Summary of the Israeli Democracy Index, 2005 13 Part One – Updating the Democracy Index, 2005 A. Description of the Research and its Goals 19 B. The Democracy Indicators 23 1. A Summary Outline 23 2. Israel 2005 as Reflected in the Indicators: Changes since the 2004 Index 25 3. Selected Findings from the Index 29 C. The Democracy Survey 45 1. A Summary Outline 45 2. Democracy’s Implementation in Israel According to the Three Aspects: The Perception of the Israeli Public, 2005 46 3. Democracy’s Implementation in Israel According to the Three Aspects: A Comparison between 2003 and 2005 48 4. Democracy’s Implementation in Israel According to Various Population Groups 49 5. Democratic Attitudes among the Israeli Public, 2005 According to the Three Aspects 51 6. Democratic Attitudes among the Israeli Public: A Comparison between 2003 and 2005 54 7. Democratic Attitudes According to Various Population Groups 55 8. The Public’s Degree of Trust in Key Institutions in Israel, 2003-2005 56 9. The Most Important Problem the Government Must Deal With: The Public View 58 Part Two – On the Tenth Anniversary of Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin’s Assassination A. Background 63 B. Yitzhak Rabin as Reflected in Israeli Public Opinion, 2005 65 1. Yitzhak Rabin in the Collective Memory 65 2. The Question of Blame: Explanations and Reasons for the Assassination 71 3. The Public Perception of the Sentence Imposed on Yigal Amir 176 4. The Influence of the Assassination on the Israeli Public, on Israeli Society, and on Israeli Democracy 179 5. Drawing Lessons from the Assassination 184 C. Did Rabin’s Assassination Influence Democratic Culture in Israel? 191 1. Rabin’s Assassination and Value Priorities 192 2. Political Tolerance 198 3. The Legitimacy of Protest 102 4. Summary 109 D. Identity within the Bounds of Controversy: Identity Types in the Jewish Public Ten Years after Rabin’s Assassination 113 1. The Dimensions of the Identity 113 2. Types of Identity 114 3. Types of Identity and Religiosity 117 4. Identity Types, Right-Left and Political Preferences 117 5. The External and Internal Identity Dimensions 122 6. The Public’s Attitude to Yitzhak Rabin 123 E. A Review of Recent Studies on the Assassination of Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin and its Influence on Israeli Society and Democracy 127 1. The Causes of the Assassination 127 2. Public Feelings and Reactions after the Assassination 128 3. Rabin’s Image in the Collective Memory 130 4. The Assassination’s Influence and its Implications for Israeli Society and Democracy 133 Appendices 137 Appendix A: The Democracy Index 2005 Compared to 2004 137 Appendix B: The Democracy Index February 2005 Compared to the Democracy Indices 2003 and 2004 139 Appendix C: Frequencies for the Rabin Survey, July 2005 145 Description of the Research and its Goals 7 List of Figures and Tables Figure 1 The Structure of the Index 20 Figure 2 Israel’s Ranking in the Democracies’ Sample According to 13 Criteria 24 Figure 3 Representativeness: An International Comparison (Party Dominance Measure) 31 Figure 4 Representativeness in Israel, 1990-2003 (Party Dominance Measure) 32 Figure 5 Integrity: An International Comparison 33 Figure 6 Integrity in Israel as Reflected in Two Political Corruption Ratings, 1997-2005 35 Figure 7 Law and Order: An International Comparison 35 Figure 8 Political Discrimination of Minorities: An International Comparison 37 Figure 9 Economic Discrimination of Minorities: An International Comparison 37 Figure 10 Economic, Political, and Cultural Discrimination of the Arab Minority in Israel, 1990-2003 38 Figure 11 Political Conflict: An International Comparison 39 Figure 12 Political Conflict in Israel, 1990-2003 41 Figure 13 Religious Tensions: An International Comparison 42 Figure 14 National/Ethnic/Linguistic Tensions: An International Comparison 42 Figure 15 Israel as Reflected in Two Tension Ratings, 1992-2005 43 Figure 16 Assessing Democracy’s Implementation in the Israeli Public in 2005 47 Figure 17 Assessing Democracy’s Implementation in the Israeli Public in 2003 and 2005 48 Figure 18 Assessing Democracy’s Implementation in the Institutional Aspect: Jewish “Old Timers,” Immigrants from the CIS, and Arabs 50 Figure 19 Assessing Democracy’s Implementation in the Rights Aspect: Jewish “Old Timers,” Immigrants from the CIS, and Arabs 51 Figure 20 Democratic Attitudes: Israeli Public, 2005 52 Figure 21 Democratic Attitudes: Israeli Public, 2003 and 2005 53 Figure 22 Opposition to a “Population Transfer” over Time 54 Figure 23 Democratic Attitudes in the Rights Aspect: Jewish “Old Timers,” Immigrants from the CIS, and Arabs 55 Figure 24 Democratic Attitudes in the Stability Aspect: Jewish “Old Timers,” Immigrants from the CIS, and Arabs 57 Figure 25 Trust in Key Institutions over the Last Three Years 57 Figure 26 Average Liking Rates for Various Israeli Leaders among the Jewish Public, 1984-2005 66 8 Auditing Israeli Democracy – 2005 Figure 27 Qualities the Jewish Public Ascribe to Yitzhak Rabin, 2005, According to Degree of Religiosity 68 Figure 28 Qualities the Jewish Public Ascribe to Yitzhak Rabin, 2005, According to Political Leanings 69 Figure 29 Agreement with Statements on Peace and Security Ascribed or Not Ascribed to Yitzhak Rabin 70 Figure 30 Attitudes toward Yigal Amir’s Sentence, According to Various Groups in Israeli Society 77 Figure 31 The Influence of Rabin’s Assassination on the Attitude of the Jewish Public to Religious Jews and to the Settlers in the Occupied Territories 81 Figure 32 The Perceptions of Rabin’s Assassination as a Crucially Significant Event in the History of Israel, According to Groups in Society 82 Figure 33 Assessing the Influence of Rabin’s Assassination on the Prospects for Peace, Democracy, and Political Polarization of Jews 83 Figure 34 Assessing the Lessons Drawn from the Assassination by the Security Forces and the Public, According to Nationality and Degree of Religiosity 86 Figure 35 Assessing the Authorities’ Behavior toward Campaigners for Political Violence Concerning the Disengagement, According to Groups in Society 87 Figure 36 Ranking Values: Percentage Ranking First a Jewish Majority, the Greater Land of Israel, Peace, and Democracy, 1988-2005 94 Figure 37 Ranking Values: Percentage Ranking Democracy First until and after the Outbreak of the Intifada, 1988-2005 95 Figure 38 Political Tolerance of a Least-Liked Group, 1980-2005 103 Figure 39 Political Tolerance of Israeli Arab Citizens, 1980-2005 104 Figure 40 Political