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Finland C Capital Goods KONBS.HE 25 August 2004 Finland c Capital Goods KONBS.HE 25 August 2004 Company Update Kone NEUTRAL Closing the circle HIGH RISK EUR49.4 High/Low (12M) EUR51.3/40 ` We welcome Kone’s planned de-merger of its Elevators & Escalators and Sector view: Neutral Cargotec businesses as it makes strategic sense given the lack of operational synergies, and it opens up new possibilities in M&A. Nevertheless, we argue that the break-up does not really expose new values although it is still likely to be a positive catalyst in the short term. ` The de-merger increases the likelihood of Cargotec and KCI Konecranes joining forces. We regard such a link-up as very interesting in view of the synergy potential and expectations of a smooth integration. We believe that a merger between Cargotec and KCI would create value for shareholders in both companies and lead to pre-tax synergies of Research Miikka Kinnunen EUR25m. +358 9 6187 12 41 [email protected] Key figures (EUR) 2003 2004e 2005e 2006e Other key figures Share price 52 Sales (m) 5,410 4,407 4,623 4,668 Avg. no. shares (m) 61.9 EBITA (m) 437 519 367 375 Market cap. (EURm) 3,159 51 Pre-tax profit (m) 416 514 370 381 EV (2004e) 3,170 50 Avg. daily vol. ('000) 80 EPS 4.77 5.1 4.28 4.41 49 Free float 56.9% EPS adj. 4.49 3.74 4.28 4.41 ROE adj. (2004e) 19.9% 48 Sales growth Y/Y 25% -19% 5% 1% NIBD / Equity (2004e) 17.3% 47 EPS adj. growth Y/Y 25% -17% 14% 3% 46 EBITA margin 8.1% 11.8% 7.9% 8.0% 45 FMAM J J A P/E 10.4 9.8 11.6 11.2 P/E adj. 11.0 13.2 11.6 11.2 Kone Hex Portfolio (Fi) EV/EBITA 8.6 6.1 8.3 7.7 Source : JCF P/BV 2.81 2.59 2.35 2.12 Dividend yield 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 5.5% FCF yield 11.9% 5.1% 8.6% 9.7% Source : Carnegie Research Please see disclosures at the back of this report Carnegie Securities Research Company Update Kone Performance & valuation Price relative to market – 1Y Price relative to sector – 1Y 52 52 Neutral performance this year 50 50 48 48 46 46 44 44 42 42 40 40 38 ASONDJ FMAMJ J A ASONDJ FMAMJ J A Kone Kone Hex Portfolio (Fi) Capital Goods Source: JCF Source: JCF Adj. EPS expectations – 2004e Adj. EPS expectations – 2005e No wide variation between our and 5.0 5.0 consensus estimates 4.8 4.9 4.8 4.6 4.7 4.4 4.6 4.2 4.5 4.0 4.4 3.8 4.3 3.6 4.2 3.4 4.1 ASONDJ FMAMJ JA ASONDJ FMAMJ JA Carnegie Carnegie Consensus Consensus Source: Carnegie Research – JCF Source: Carnegie Research – JCF We regard the valuation fair… Performance Valuation snapshot 1M 3M 12M YTD snapshot 2003 2004e 2005e 2006e Kone % 4.0 8.0 20.9 9.5 P/E 10.4 9.8 11.6 11.2 P/E adj. 11.0 13.2 11.6 11.2 Peer group % -3.0 1.2 8.5 1.4 Carnegie Capital Goods % -2.1 0.7 10.7 5.6 EV/EBITDA 6.9 5.2 6.7 6.2 Hex Portfolio % 2.7 3.5 10.4 1.8 EV/EBITA 8.66.18.37.7 MSCI Nordic % -0.4 1.4 19.9 -0.6 P/BV 2.81 2.59 2.35 2.12 P/BV ex. GW 15.38 6.43 5.06 4.11 MSCI Europe % -2.1 -0.3 18.3 -2.0 S&P 500 % -0.4 -2.5 -0.8 0.9 Dividend yield 4.0%4.0%4.0%5.5% MSCI World % -1.1 -2.3 1.8 0.6 FCF yield 11.9% 5.1% 8.6% 9.7% Source: JCF Source: Carnegie Research …also relative to Nordic peers P/E Adj. P/E bef.GW EV/EBITA EBITA Dividend Peer group Carnegie Consensus Carnegie Margin Yield comparison Rat. Curr. Price 04e 05e 04e 05e 04e 05e 05e 04e Assa Abloy N SEK 88.5 13.0 11.8 13.1 11.6 11.9 10.4 15.4% 1.5% Atlas Copco OP SEK 259.5 12.0 10.4 12.2 10.9 9.0 7.6 14.9% 3.5% KCI Konecranes N EUR 30.0 15.8 12.7 16.3 12.1 10.8 9.0 6.4% 3.7% Kone N EUR 49.4 13.2 11.6 12.9 11.6 6.1 8.3 7.9% 4.0% Metso N EUR 10.4 21.9 10.8 26.2 11.1 16.1 8.4 5.7% 2.9% Sandvik N SEK 247.5 14.0 12.7 13.7 12.4 10.7 9.2 14.6% 4.4% SKF N SEK 268.0 10.9 10.1 10.8 10.0 7.4 6.4 10.4% 3.7% Wärtsilä OP EUR 18.4 11.9 9.1 11.9 9.1 5.3 6.2 6.7% 4.1% Weighted avg. 13.0 11.2 9.1 8.2 11.1% 3.6% Unweighted avg. 13.1 11.2 9.9 8.4 9.2% 3.7% Source: Carnegie Research 25 August 2004 2 Carnegie Securities Research Company Update Kone De-merger opens up new possibilities We welcome Kone’s planned de-merger of its Elevators & Escalators and Cargotec businesses. After the successful turnaround of Cargotec, the proposal makes strategic sense given the lack of operational synergies, and it opens up new possibilities in M&A. Nevertheless, we argue that the break-up does not really expose new values although it is still likely to be a positive catalyst in the short term. Cargotec’s M&A opportunities appear to be limited as it already has a leading market position. However, we would regard a link-up between Cargotec and KCI Konecranes as very interesting in view of the synergy potential and expectations of a smooth integration. We believe that a merger between Cargotec and KCI would create value for shareholders in both companies and lead to pre-tax synergies of EUR25m. Elevators & Escalators is likely to continue pursuing its strategy of making small bolt-on acquisitions while keeping an eye on Toshiba Elevator and Building Systems. The new proposal and recap of the Partek deal Elevators & Escalators and Cargotec to be Kone’s board of directors has decided to begin preparations to split the company into two separated separate entities. According to the preliminary plan, the assets and liabilities of the parent company will be divided between two corporations. The first company will consist of the business operations of the current Kone Elevators & Escalators (KEE) and the second company will consist of the business operations of the current Kone Cargotec. Following the de-merger, Kone’s shareholders will receive shares in the new corporations in proportion to their existing shareholdings. Good motivation for the de-merger Management stressed that “pure play/increased transparency” and “improved M&A capabilities” were the main motives behind the de-merger. Kone has played a significant role in the successful streamlining process of Cargotec’s manufacturing operations but the transfer of KEE’s service know-how to Cargotec has been a more cumbersome process than initially expected. Furthermore, KEE’s technology is mainly based on electro- mechanics while Cargotec uses hydraulics. This reduces the long term synergy potential. Therefore, the de-merger makes strategic sense given the lack of operational synergies between the two businesses. However: 1) the de-merger process will take up to one year; 2) free float is likely to remain limited as Mr Herlin intends to remain a large owner in both companies; 3) there will be two share classes in both companies; and 4) the two separate entities will each have a lower market cap than the current Kone. The implicit acquisition cost of Cargotec is The table below illustrates the current cost of the Partek acquisition following the EUR524m divestments. The EV paid for the remaining operations in Cargotec (Kalmar and Hiab) is just EUR524m. This values Cargotec at an EV/Sales(04e) of only 0.3x and EV/EBITA(04e) of 5.3x, which is clearly below the fair valuation as shown later in this update. As Kone is once again nearly debt free, Kone’s shareholders have effectively obtained ownership of Cargotec for free. As we have said before, the Partek acquisition was a real blessing in disguise. 25 August 2004 Carnegie Securities Research 3 Company Update Kone Partek acquisition cost revisited Price (EUR) # of shares (m) Total (EURm) Share offer 15 49 754 Option offer 0 1 0 Bond offer 1,919 0 32 Loan note offer 2,186 0 70 Total equity 856 Assumed net debt 689 Capital loan 100 EV original 1,645 Nordkalk disposed 12 Feb 2003 -270 Paroc disposed 12 Feb 2003 -75 Cellit disposed 15 April 2003 -12 Polar disposed in 1 October 2003 -24 EV 2003 1,264 Forest Machines disposed 31 December 2003 -120 Tractors disposed 5 January 2004 -600 Sisu Auto + Sisu Axles disposed 5 March 2004 -20 EV current 524 Source: Carnegie Research Valuation The break-up is not likely to reveal hidden Based on our SOTP calculation, Kone's fair EV is some EUR3.4bn, of which Cargotec's values share is some EUR940m.
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