Chapter 22. Case Study
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Curveball Saga
Bob DROGIN & John GOETZ: The Curveball Saga Los Angeles Times 2005, November 20 THE CURVEBALL SAGA How U.S. Fell Under the Spell of 'Curveball' The Iraqi informant's German handlers say they had told U.S. officials that his information was 'not proven,' and were shocked when President Bush and Colin L. Powell used it in key prewar speeches. By Bob Drogin and John Goetz, Special to The Times The German intelligence officials responsible for one of the most important informants on Saddam Hussein's suspected weapons of mass destruction say that the Bush administration and the CIA repeatedly exaggerated his claims during the run-up to the war in Iraq. Five senior officials from Germany's Federal Intelligence Service, or BND, said in interviews with The Times that they warned U.S. intelligence authorities that the source, an Iraqi defector code-named Curveball, never claimed to produce germ weapons and never saw anyone else do so. According to the Germans, President Bush mischaracterized Curveball's information when he warned before the war that Iraq had at least seven mobile factories brewing biological poisons. Then-Secretary of State Colin L. Powell also misstated Curveball's accounts in his prewar presentation to the United Nations on Feb. 5, 2003, the Germans said. Curveball's German handlers for the last six years said his information was often vague, mostly secondhand and impossible to confirm. "This was not substantial evidence," said a senior German intelligence official. "We made clear we could not verify the things he said." The German authorities, speaking about the case for the first time, also said that their informant suffered from emotional and mental problems. -
Leading to War __ a Film That Chronicles the Path to War in Iraq
How did the U.S. government lead its people to war? A Mechanism for War Bush Administration Claims vs. The Rhetoric and Spin Facts War Through Rose-Colored Glasses Abuses and Misuses of Intelligence A Mythic Reality No mobile biological weapons labs were found in Iraq Items of Note Bush Administration Claims vs. The Facts Pre-War Claims: No weapons of mass destruction found Senior members of the Bush administration claimed that Iraq possessed truck- No mobile biological weapons labs mounted and train-mounted mobile biological weapons laboratories. Iraq did not seek to acquire yellowcake uranium Aluminum tubes not for nuclear weapons Facts: Mohamed Atta did not meet with Iraqis There is no evidence of the existence of mobile bioweapons laboratories. Iraq did not provide training to al-Qaeda The chief source for the Bush administration’s claim was an Iraqi defector, No collaboration between Iraq and al-Qaeda codenamed “Curveball.” Prior to the invasion of Iraq, British intelligence, German Iraq was not involved in the attacks of 9/11 intelligence, and analysts from the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency and the CIA determined that Curveball was a fabricator, and was therefore completely unreliable The Costs of War as an intelligence source. Three other Iraqi defectors who corroborated Curveball’s claims were also found to be fabricators. By May 2002, the Defense Intelligence Agency issued an official “fabrication notice” instructing other intelligence agencies to disregard the defector's information as unreliable. Overview: Although Curveball and a former Iraqi intelligence service defector, who corroborated Curveball’s story, were both determined to be fabricators by multiple intelligence agencies before the war – and despite the fact that the Bush administration was briefed on this – Bush, Powell and other senior officials persisted in citing Curveball’s fictitious claims about the existence of mobile bioweapons labs as solid facts. -
Anatomy of a National Security Fiasco: the George W. Bush Administration, Iraq, and Groupthink Phillip G
Anatomy of a National Security Fiasco: The George W. Bush Administration, Iraq, and Groupthink Phillip G. Henderson The Catholic University of America These were people who were selectively picking and then emphasizing pieces of intelligence, I believe, in order to support their larger purpose, which was to bring in a way that they thought possible, to bring democracy to Iraq, and through Iraq to transform the Middle East. I thought that was far-fetched. I didn’t think it was going to happen, but that was their real purpose. They thought that this was going to be a transforming event in history. My frustration is that there was never a national security decision- making process in the administration where people such as me really had a chance to take that on. Richard Haass, Director of Policy Planning at the State Department 2001-2003, Interview with Chris Matthews on “Hardball,” May 6, 2009 In February 2002, one year before the U.S. military intervention in Iraq began, neoconservative writer Ken Adelman predicted that demolishing Saddam Hussein’s regime and liberating Iraq would be a “cakewalk.”1 At a town hall meeting at the Ameri- PHILLIP G. HENDERSON is Associate Professor of Politics at The Catholic University of America. Work on this article was supported by a research grant from the Center for the Study of Statesmanship. 1 Ken Adelman, “Cakewalk in Iraq,” The Washington Post, 13 February 2002, A27. 46 • Volume XXXI, Nos. 1 and 2, 2018 Phillip G. Henderson can air base in Aviano, Italy, on February 7, 2003, Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld added that, if force were to be used in Iraq, the war “could last six days, six weeks. -
The Case of Weapons of Mass Destruction at the Outset of the Iraq
CORE Metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk Provided by Keck Graduate Institute Claremont Colleges Scholarship @ Claremont CMC Senior Theses CMC Student Scholarship 2010 The aC se of Weapons of Mass Destruction at the Outset of the Iraq War David C. Spiller Claremont McKenna College Recommended Citation Spiller, David C., "The asC e of Weapons of Mass Destruction at the Outset of the Iraq War" (2010). CMC Senior Theses. Paper 54. http://scholarship.claremont.edu/cmc_theses/54 This Open Access Senior Thesis is brought to you by Scholarship@Claremont. It has been accepted for inclusion in this collection by an authorized administrator. For more information, please contact [email protected]. CHAPTER ONE: A WAR OF PREEMPTION The world changed after 9/11. American foreign policy was forced to take a more aggressive stance against potential threats throughout the world. By implementing the Bush doctrine, President George W. Bush sought to reform American foreign policy by waging a preventive war against terrorism and the countries that harbored terrorists. After 9/11 the primary target of the United States was Afghanistan where the Taliban ruled and those responsible for the terrorist attacks were located. By waging war in Afghanistan the Bush administration launched a full assault against terrorism in order to ensure the safety of the United States. Besides Afghanistan, Iraq was another country high on the administration’s priority list due to possible ties to terrorism as well as the potential threat of weapons of mass destruction. The Bush administration identified Iraq as one of the biggest threats to the United States because of the previous history between the two countries. -
President Bush and the Invasion of Iraq: Presidential Leadership and Thwarted Goals
From James McCormick, ed., The Domestic Sources of American Foreign Policy, 6th ed. (Roman & Littlefield, 2018), pp. 361-380. President Bush and the Invasion of Iraq: Presidential Leadership and Thwarted Goals James P. Pfiffner George Mason University The 2003 Iraq War is a case study in winning the military battle but losing the war. President George W. Bush demonstrated impressive political skills in taking the country to war, despite the reservations of former generals, members of his father’s administration and the doubts of contemporary military leaders. But President Bush’s political victory in taking the country to war and the quick military defeat of Saddam’s army were undercut by a long post-war insurgency in Iraq, the rise of Iran’s influence in the Middle East, and the establishment of ISIS in a broken Iraq. This case study will examine President Bush’s campaign for war, his use of intelligence to make his case, and the longer-term consequences of the war. Many factors determine a decision to go to war, and in the United States, the personality and character of the president as leader of the country and commander in chief of the armed forces, are particularly important. To be sure, Congress is constitutionally the institution that must “declare war,” but political and governmental dynamics most often favor the president. The president has the advantage of being a single decision maker directing the many bureaucracies that gather intelligence and prepare for war. Virtually all intelligence available to Congress originates in executive branch agencies. Publicly, the president can command the attention of the media and strongly shape public perceptions of the national security situation of the United States. -
Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Mandatory Declassification Review (EOM) Case Log, 2005 - 2010
Description of document: Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Mandatory Declassification Review (EOM) Case Log, 2005 - 2010 Requested date: 19-June-2010 Released date: 12-August-2010 Posted date: 13-September-2010 Titles of documents: CIA Mandatory Declassification Review Log – 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 CIA Mandatory Declassification Review Log - CY2010 (1st Quarter) DRAFT CIA MDR Log -CY2010 (2nd Qtr) Date/date range of document: 06-January-2005 – 17-June-2010 Source of document: Information and Privacy Coordinator Central Intelligence Agency Washington, D.C. 20505 The governmentattic.org web site (“the site”) is noncommercial and free to the public. The site and materials made available on the site, such as this file, are for reference only. The governmentattic.org web site and its principals have made every effort to make this information as complete and as accurate as possible, however, there may be mistakes and omissions, both typographical and in content. The governmentattic.org web site and its principals shall have neither liability nor responsibility to any person or entity with respect to any loss or damage caused, or alleged to have been caused, directly or indirectly, by the information provided on the governmentattic.org web site or in this file. The public records published on the site were obtained from government agencies using proper legal channels. Each document is identified as to the source. Any concerns about the contents of the site should be directed to the agency originating the document in question. GovernmentAttic.org is not responsible for the contents of documents published on the website. Central tntelligence Agency Wasilington. D.C. -
Who's Your Baghdaddy? (3.27.14)
Who's Your Baghdaddy? (3.27.14) Who’s Your Baghdaddy? or how i started the iraq war a true story with liberties. Music and Book Lyrics and Book Marshall Pailet A.D. Penedo Contact: Di Glazer ICM Partners [email protected] 212.556.6820 Copyright © by Pailet & Penedo Who's Your Baghdaddy? (3.27.14) CAST OF CHARACTERS Martin Bouchard (50’s - 60’s) - Used to be a bigwig intelligence guy, now has fallen down several rungs on the ladder. Intelligent, but sometimes shortsighted in his quest to reclaim past glory. Bari-tenor. Richart Becker (20’s) - A German junior interrogator. Young, ambitious, not as cool as he thinks. Looking for a friend. Tenor. Curveball (30’s) - An Iraqi defector, and the only source on the biological Weapons of Mass Destruction. Enchanting, manipulative, unpredictable with a wild side. Tenor. Tyler Nelson (40’s) - CIA operative, bureaucrat and consummate company man. Doesn’t like to ruffle feathers. Holier than thou. Bari-tenor. Berry Stanton (late 20’s) - CIA analyst. Smart, abrasive, with minimal people skills. Mezzo-Soprano with belt. Jerry Samuel (late 20’s) - CIA analyst and super geek. Socially awkward with a strong moral code for the most part. Tenor. Leader of the Support Group/Male Ensemble (Any adult age) - Facilitates support group session. Baritone. Female Ensemble Member - To play many parts. Great comedian. Soprano. Male Ensemble Member - To play many parts. Great comedian. Baritone/Tenor. LOCATION Support Group for Starters of Iraq War; CIA - Langley, VA; BND (German CIA equivalent) - Berlin; Northern Iraq. TIME 2001-2004. Copyright © by Pailet & Penedo Who's Your Baghdaddy? (3.27.14) I-1 ACT I (The audience walks into a support group. -
George W. Bush and the Iraq War of 2003 Deception
GEORGE W. BUSH AND THE IRAQ WAR OF 2003 DECEPTION, DISCOURSE, AND THE ILLUSION OF EXPANSION by Mike Maxey A thesis in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the degree of Master of Arts in the Department of Political Science University of Central Oklahoma December, 2015 TABLE OF CONTENTS Page CHAPTER I: INTRODUCTION…………………………………………………….1 CHAPTER II: JUSTIFICATION FOR DECEPTION………………………………...6 CHAPTER III: DECEPTION AND THE ILLUSION OF EXPANSION………........27 CHAPTER IV: DISCOURSE OF NEOCONSERVATISM AND AMERICAN EXCEPTIONALISM………………………………………………..34 CHAPTER V: THE UTOPIAN REALISM OF GEORGE W. BUSH……………….41 CHAPTER VI:BUSH AND THE MILITARY INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX: A FAMILY AFFAIR…………………………………………………..51 CHAPTER VII: THE INFLUENCE OF GROUPTHINK……………………………62 CHAPTER VIII: FEAR, PARANOIA, AND DELUSIONS OF GRANDEUR……..71 CHAPTER IX: CONCLUSIONS……………………………………………………80 REFERENCES……………………………………………………………………….85 APPENDIX…………………………………………………………………………..96 Chapter I Introduction The greatest deception men suffer is from their own opinions. -Leonardo Da Vinci, Notebooks The use of deception to provoke political support for the extraordinary governmental use of force is an important theme of public diplomacy studies. John J. Mearsheimer has argued that deception, “where an individual purposely takes steps that are designed to prevent others from knowing the full truth” (Mearsheimer 2011, 15), is a practice followed by “leaders of all kinds” who consider it “a useful tool of statecraft that can and should be employed in a variety of circumstances” (Mearsheimer 2011, 99). Mearsheimer’s insights into the foreign policy decision making process reflect the intellectual tradition to which he affiliates. Within that intellectual tradition, Sun Tzu, Thomas Hobbes, Niccolo Machiavelli, and Thucydides have all noted the usefulness of deception in drumming up political support. -
'Intelligence & WMD: Reports, Politics, and Intelligence Failures: the Case
The Journal of Strategic Studies Vol. 29, No. 1, 3 – 52, February 2006 INTELLIGENCE & WMD Reports, Politics, and Intelligence Failures: The Case of Iraq ROBERT JERVIS1 Columbia University, New York ABSTRACT The intelligence failure concerning Iraqi weapons of mass destruction (WMD) has been the center of political controversy and official investigations in three countries. This article reviews the Report on the U.S. Intelligence Community’s Prewar Intelligence Assessments on Iraq, Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, 7 July 2004, Review of Intelligence on Weapons of Mass Destruction, a Report of a Committee of Privy Councillors to the House of Commons, 14 July 2004 (the Butler Report), Report to the President of the United States, The Commission on the Intelligence Capabilities of the United States Regarding Weapons of Mass Destruction, 31 March 2005. It explores the reasons for their deficiencies and the failure itself. This case and the investigations of it are similar to many previous ones. The investigations are marred by political bias and excessive hindsight. Neither the investigations nor contemporary intelligence on Iraqi WMD followed good social science practices. The comparative method was not utilized, confirmation bias was rampant, alternative hypotheses were not tested, and negative evidence was ignored. Although the opportunities to do better are many, the prospects for adequate reform are dim. KEY WORDS: intelligence, intelligence failures, Iraqi WMD, official inquiries 1Truth in reviewing requires me to say that I chair the CIA’s Historical Review Panel which advises the Director on declassification policies and priorities, wrote a post- mortem for the CIA on why it was slow to see that the Shah of Iran might fall that located a number of errors which recurred in the Iraq case (‘Analysis of NFAC’s Performance on Iran’s Domestic Crisis, Mid-1977–November 1978’, declassified as CIA-RDP86B00269R001100110003-4), and led a small team that analyzed the lessons of the Iraq WMD failure. -
French Told CIA of Bogus Intelligence
Los Angeles Times: French Told CIA of Bogus Intelligence http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-niger11dec11,0,3831325,full.story? coll=la-home-headlines THE WORLD French Told CIA of Bogus Intelligence The foreign spy service warned the U.S. various times before the war that there was no proof Iraq sought uranium from Niger, ex-officials say. By Tom Hamburger, Peter Wallsten and Bob Drogin Times Staff Writers December 11, 2005 PARIS — More than a year before President Bush declared in his 2003 State of the Union speech that Iraq had tried to buy nuclear weapons material in Africa, the French spy service began repeatedly warning the CIA in secret communications that there was no evidence to support the allegation. The previously undisclosed exchanges between the U.S. and the French, described in interviews last week by the retired chief of the French counterintelligence service and a former CIA official, came on separate occasions in 2001 and 2002. The French conclusions were reached after extensive on-the-ground investigations in Niger and other former French colonies, where the uranium mines are controlled by French companies, said Alain Chouet, the French former official. He said the French investigated at the CIA's request. Chouet's account was "at odds with our understanding of the issue," a U.S. government official said. The U.S. official declined to elaborate and spoke only on condition that neither he nor his agency be named. However, the essence of Chouet's account — that the French repeatedly investigated the Niger claim, found no evidence to support it, and warned the CIA — was extensively corroborated by the former CIA official and a current French government official, who both spoke on condition of anonymity. -
Analysts and Policymakers: a Confusion of Roles?
WALD FINAL 5/19/2006 9:30 AM ANALYSTS AND POLICYMAKERS: A CONFUSION OF ROLES? Patricia M. Wald∗ During the past year, we have witnessed two major cause celebres involving the relations between national policymakers and intelligence analysts in the sensitive areas of foreign relations and national security. The first involved the issue of whether the analysts who worked on the National Intelligence Estimate and other pre-war assessments were pressured or intimidated into finding that Iraq had Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) by high-level policymakers who wanted and needed such conclusions to further their preordained objectives to unseat the Iraqi President, Saddam Hussein, by military force. The second contratemps arose during the confirmation hearing of John Bolton as United States Ambassador to the United Nations. Opponents of the Bolton nomination asserted that on several occasions during his tenure as Assistant Secretary of State he had tried to transfer or have removed analysts who would not alter their findings on WMD to fit his own judgments on Cuba’s or Syria’s activities. Though the accounts of the interface between Bolton and intelligence analysts (and their superiors) varied considerably, the accusations of political interference with analysts’ judgments on key foreign policy matters gave rise to provocative dialogues in the Senate as to the proper role of both policymakers and analysts when they join to produce critical judgments—some that could lead to war—on the capabilities and, more importantly, the intent of hostile governments and terrorist groups to manufacture and use such weapons. At first, it seems hard to fathom how our extensive national intelligence apparatus has been operating for nearly sixty years without those relationships having been explored publicly before. -
Lacking Biolabs, Trailers Carried Case for War
Lacking Biolabs, Trailers Carried Case for War Lacking Biolabs, Trailers Carried Case for War Administration Pushed Notion of Banned Iraqi Weapons Despite Evidence to Contrary By Joby Warrick Washington Post Staff Writer Wednesday, April 12, 2006; A01 On May 29, 2003, 50 days after the fall of Baghdad, President Bush proclaimed a fresh victory for his administration in Iraq: Two small trailers captured by U.S. and Kurdish troops had turned out to be long- sought mobile "biological laboratories." He declared, "We have found the weapons of mass destruction." The claim, repeated by top administration officials for months afterward, was hailed at the time as a vindication of the decision to go to war. But even as Bush spoke, U.S. intelligence officials possessed powerful evidence that it was not true. A secret fact-finding mission to Iraq -- not made public until now -- had already concluded that the trailers had nothing to do with biological weapons. Leaders of the Pentagon-sponsored mission transmitted their unanimous findings to Washington in a field report on May 27, 2003, two days before the president's statement. The three-page field report and a 122-page final report three weeks later were stamped "secret" and shelved. Meanwhile, for nearly a year, administration and intelligence officials continued to publicly assert that the trailers were weapons factories. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/04/11/AR2006041101888_pf.html (1 of 6)4/12/2006 3:21:52 PM Lacking Biolabs, Trailers Carried Case for War The authors of the reports were nine U.S.