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Youth Employment Scenarios for South Africa in 2035

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Youth Employment Scenarios for South Africa in 2035 Youth employment scenarios for South Africa in 2035 Youth Employment Scenarios for South Africa in 2035 An Interdisciplinary Approach Combining Anthropology, Economics, and Systems Theory Inauguraldissertation zur Erlangung des Akademischen Grades eines Dr. phil. vorgelegt dem Fachbereich 07 Geschichts- und Kulturwissenschaften der Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz Maximilian Matschke Maximilian Matschke I Youth employment scenarios for South Africa in 2035 II Maximilian Matschke Youth employment scenarios for South Africa in 2035 Table of Content List of Figures ......................................................................................................................... VI Abstract ................................................................................................................................... IX Abbreviations .......................................................................................................................... XI Main part .................................................................................................................................. 1 1. The ‘ticking time bomb’ of youth unemployment in South Africa ................................ 1 2. Points of departure and supportive literature ................................................................. 6 2.1. Economic views on unemployed youth ................................................................. 6 2.1.1. Reasons for unemployment and its types ....................................................... 7 2.1.2. Schools of thought .......................................................................................... 8 2.1.3. Labour market interventions and their effects on youth .............................. 14 2.1.4. Dynamics in unemployment ......................................................................... 18 2.1.5. Employability and employment ................................................................... 23 2.2. Complex systems theories .................................................................................... 24 2.2.1. Characteristics of complex systems ............................................................. 25 2.2.2. Socio-economic issues as complex system .................................................. 26 2.2.3. Scenario analysis as a navigator for complex systems ................................. 27 2.2.4. Emergence of complex system theories ....................................................... 27 2.3. Scenario analysis .................................................................................................. 29 2.3.1. A possibility to preview potential futures .................................................... 31 2.3.2. Schools of scenario analysis ......................................................................... 32 2.3.3. Scenarios on South Africa ............................................................................ 34 2.3.4. Scenarios on African youth .......................................................................... 43 2.4. Anthropological views on unemployed youth ..................................................... 44 2.4.1. Economic anthropology ............................................................................... 44 2.4.2. Social anthropology of work ........................................................................ 46 2.4.3. Ethnographies of work ................................................................................. 49 2.4.4. Youth and work in South Africa .................................................................. 50 2.5. How the different disciplines interlock to unveil our future ................................ 53 2.5.1. A complex world and how to understand it ................................................. 53 2.5.2. Why Marx is still alive in South Africa ....................................................... 54 2.5.3. Drivers for employment ............................................................................... 55 Maximilian Matschke III Youth employment scenarios for South Africa in 2035 2.5.4. Novelty of this research ................................................................................ 55 3. Study setup: Mixed methods for context-based insights .............................................. 57 3.1. Scenario analysis applied ..................................................................................... 57 3.2. Statistical data ...................................................................................................... 61 3.3. Expert interactions ................................................................................................ 61 3.4. Sounding board .................................................................................................... 65 3.5. Youth field research ............................................................................................. 67 3.6. Ethical dilemmas .................................................................................................. 70 4. Setting the context for South African youth scenarios ................................................. 73 4.1. Statistical insights on youth unemployment......................................................... 74 4.2. Field insights on youth employment .................................................................... 91 4.2.1. Setting the context ........................................................................................ 91 4.2.2. Snippets of the lives of young unemployed ............................................... 100 4.3. Eleven drivers for youth employment in South Africa ...................................... 115 4.3.1. Developing eleven drivers .......................................................................... 116 4.3.2. Number of available jobs ........................................................................... 117 4.3.3. Access to entrepreneurship capabilities ..................................................... 122 4.3.4. Demographic shifts .................................................................................... 124 4.3.5. Migration patterns ...................................................................................... 129 4.3.6. Schooling system ........................................................................................ 133 4.3.7. Skills development ..................................................................................... 137 4.3.8. Health of youth and families ...................................................................... 139 4.3.9. Fair access to job opportunities .................................................................. 141 4.3.10. Structural employment barriers .................................................................. 144 4.3.11. Social and cultural environment ................................................................. 146 4.3.12. Perceived inclusion in society and opportunities ....................................... 149 4.3.13. Interdependencies of drivers ...................................................................... 153 4.4. Prioritisation of employment drivers.................................................................. 154 5. Youth employment scenarios for South Africa in 2035 ............................................. 157 5.1. Scenario 1 – Spring: The South African version of the Arab spring ................. 162 5.2. Scenario 2 – Summer: Fair access to a high number of jobs ............................. 168 5.3. Scenario 3 – Fall: The number of jobs has declined but access is fair ............... 174 5.4. Scenario 4 – Winter: Resignation of youth and economy .................................. 179 6. Hypotheses on how to pave the way to youth employment ....................................... 184 IV Maximilian Matschke Youth employment scenarios for South Africa in 2035 6.1. Existing initiatives for addressing youth unemployment ................................... 184 6.2. Five new proposals for addressing youth unemployment .................................. 187 6.2.1. Boosting economic activity in targeted geographies and industries .......... 189 6.2.2. Train youth to start a business .................................................................... 192 6.2.3. Grow SMEs businesses .............................................................................. 196 6.2.4. Bridge the cross-continental employment gap ........................................... 198 6.2.5. Implement employer-demand-led skills programme ................................. 200 7. Winter is (not) coming ............................................................................................... 204 7.1. Academic implications ....................................................................................... 205 7.2. Practical implications ......................................................................................... 207 References ............................................................................................................................. 208 Appendix ............................................................................................................................... 245 Acknowledgements ............................................................................................................... 255 About the Author ................................................................................................................. 256 Declaration ...........................................................................................................................
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