6.4 Railways 6.4.1 Sector Overview The CBIC Area has a dense railway network comprising 2,806 route km, all of which is broad gauge (1,676 mm) – please see a network illustration in Figure 6.4.1. The network is maintained and operated by three zonal railway organizations under the Ministry of Railways (MOR). The largest component of the network is that of the South Western Railway (1,285 route km), operated from a base in Hubli, Karnataka. The Southern Railway, based in Chennai, operates 950 route km and the South Central Railway, with a headquarters in Secunderabad, operates 566 route km within the CBIC boundary. Passengers dominate the traffic on this network, particularly on the Southern Railway portion which generates most of its revenue from passenger traffic. The network consists of a central east-west route of 675 km linking Chennai with Chitradurga, via Bengaluru, plus another 21 routes generally running north and south from Chennai or Bengaluru. The network has the following functions: It connects inland industrial centres with east coast ports in Chennai, Ennore, Krishnapatnam, and, in the future, with new ports in Kattupalli and (possibly) Duggirajapatnam It connects the CBIC area to the major cities of India It connects the inland industrial centres of CBIC with other manufacturing centres located outside the CBIC Area. In particular, the CBIC railway network provides some important trunk line connections between: Chennai and Gudur Junction (a “Golden Quadrilateral” connecting Chennai with Delhi and Kolkata); Chennai, Renigunta and Nandalur (also a “Golden Quadrilateral” connecting Chennai with Hyderabad and Mumbai); Chennai-Salem, Chennai-Villupuram and Bengaluru-Mysore (links with major cities and with agricultural areas in the south); Bengaluru and Dharmavaram (links to Hyderabad, Mumbai and Delhi, as well as the steel producing region around Bellary); and Bengaluru and Chitradurga/Rayadurga (links to Mangalore Port to the southwest and Bellary to the north). Final Report – Comprehensive Regional Plan PwC/ Nippon Koei 295 GIS data derived from zonal railway data Figure 6.4.1 Railway network within the CBIC area Final Report – Comprehensive Regional Plan PwC/ Nippon Koei 296 In Interim Report 1, 20 routes and 66 line sections were identified within the CBIC railway network. This has been revised to 22 routes and 66 line sections. A key conclusion of Interim Report 1 was that nearly 40 per cent of this network in terms of route km had either already reached or was fast approaching capacity saturation. This has been subsequently revised to just under 37% (as shown in Source: Zonal railways Figure 6.4.2). Capacity saturation occurs when the number of trains each way per day exceeds 90 per cent of the estimated daily train capacity (i.e. the maximum number of trains which can operate in each direction per day on the line section).96 394 RKm = 14.04% < 80% 628 RKm = ≥ 80% < 90 % 22.37% 1554 RKm = 55.38% ≥ 90% < 100 % > 100% 230 RKm = 8.21% Source: Zonal railways Figure 6.4.2 Line capacity utilisation on CBIC railway network (by route km) Capacity shortages are particularly critical in the line sections near Chennai, owing to the fact that long distance passenger and freight trains share the track with suburban passenger services. Between Chennai and Gudur Junction, five out of eight operating sections, accounting for 33% of the route km on this line, have already exceeded 90 per cent of their estimated capacity. Similarly, four out of eight sections on the Southern Railway portion of the Chennai-Bengaluru route (between Chennai and Jolarpettai), accounting for 60 per cent of route km, have already exceeded 90% of their estimated train capacity. The traffic/capacity relationship has been aggravated by the fact that some 61% of the network’s route km is equipped only with a single running line, while another 35% has only two running lines (please see Figure 6.4.3). In the Chennai suburban area, traffic on a few sections with 4 running lines has already exceeded capacity and will require some form of efficiency improvements or the addition of fifth and sixth running lines. Further strong traffic growth could well require the addition of even more running lines, but this could prove difficult, owing to the non-availability of land in urban areas. 96 In the case of single line sections, line capacity is a function of the time taken by the slowest train to pass through the longest block section, since only one train can occupy the section at a time. In the case of multiple running lines, line capacity is determined on the basis of the minimum headway (train intervals) permitted by the signalling system. Final Report – Comprehensive Regional Plan PwC/ Nippon Koei 297 45 RKm = 1.6% 67 RKm = 2.4% 4 running lines 982 RKm = 3 running 35.0% lines 1712 RKm = 61.0% 2 running lines 1 running line Source: Zonal railways Figure 6.4.3 Distribution of route-km by number of running lines The Ministry of Railways is attempting to relieve capacity shortages where these are most critical by adding running lines, but with passenger traffic growing by about 3.5 per cent per annum and freight traffic by more than 7 per cent per annum, is struggling to keep up. Of course, the addition of running lines is but one means of relieving line capacity shortages, but it has greater potential for relief than other measures (such as electrification, increased axle loads, etc.) in the present operating context of the CBIC railway network. Summary of the existing situation and issues i. The 22 routes and 66 sections of the CBIC rail corridor cover 2806 Route Kilometres. 61% of the CBIC corridor is currently single-line only; only 4% or 112 km have more than 2 lines. 37% (1022 km) of the CBIC corridor has a level of track utilisation higher than 90%, which implies a very high level of congestion. Congestion is pronounced in some sections around Chennai, where a suburban rail service shares the tracks with long distance passenger and freight services. ii. A more detailed analysis of possible solutions to deal with congestion are listed in Chapter 6.4.3; however as stated, the addition of running lines presents the most potential for congestion relief. iii. Additionally, the upgrading of Absolute Block Signalling (ABS) to Automatic Signalling will also improve utilisation. Only around 440 Km, or around 16% of the network, (all of which is within Southern Railways) runs on Automatic Signalling. Beyond marginal improvements, these sections will require additional lines if an increase in capacity is needed. iv. South Western and South Central Railways’ sections are under ABS and can be upgraded to Automatic Signalling; however beyond this, additional lines will be required for further increases in capacity. v. Other measures to improve efficiency such as back loading of wagons and combining empty wagons can also be considered and are explained in detail in Chapter 6.4.3 (i). Indian Railways already carry out these improvements but it is likely that there will scope for further implementation of such measures. vi. This should be considered also in view of the very low share of Rail in freight movements within the CBIC corridor. As indicated in Chapter 6.3.1.3, the share of rail in container traffic within the CBIC area is around 5%. It is assumed that this share will increase, and that the necessary operational and policy changes required for this will be implemented. Additionally, rail does not participate in the current movement of cars to Ennore port for exports. It is expected that this will also be addressed. This is discussed in detail in Chapter 6.4.2 (iii) and Chapter 6.4.4 (iv). Final Report – Comprehensive Regional Plan PwC/ Nippon Koei 298 6.4.2Demand Forecast The railway demand forecast has been prepared at three levels. First, the daily number of trains (both freight and passenger ) operating on all of the 66 line sections comprising the CBIC network was projected for 20 years up until 2032/33, in order to assess the timing, scale and cost of future line capacity expansion. Second, passenger and freight volume flows (number of passengers and freight tonnage) on the principal route between Chennai and Bengaluru were projected over the same 20 year period, in order to estimate the potential to divert traffic to the proposed Dedicated Freight Corridor (DFC) and High Speed Passenger Railway (HSR). Third, the future tonnages of cargo moving by rail to and from individual east coast ports were estimated to establish the volumes that would be available to support the improvement of rail connectivity to the ports. (i) Growth scenarios Two scenarios were initially considered: one (known as the “Business as Usual” scenario or BAU) reflecting growth which might be expected to occur in the absence of the accelerated industrial development of the corridor and the other (the “Business Induced” scenario or BIS) reflecting the faster growth which might be expected to result from such development. Forecasts were carried out for both the BAU and BIS cases. The forecasting process involved calculation of future volumes by applying valid growth rates to base year data. The year 2012/13 was adopted as the base year for all forecasts. The rates used for forecast expansion were the BIS rates estimated by the project economists for GRDP (Gross Regional Domestic Product) in the CBIC area. However, since some proportion of the demand for railway services is generated from outside of the CBIC area, it was necessary to compute a weighted average of the GRDP for CBIC and the national GDP for use as the forecast expansion factor for freight traffic.