What Can History Tell Us About the Future? Using Recent Observations and Paleoclimate Proxies to Constrain Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity

Montclair State University Montclair State University Digital Commons Sustainability Seminar Series Sustainability Seminar Series, 2021 Mar 1st, 3:45 PM - 3:00 PM What can history tell us about the future? Using recent observations and paleoclimate proxies to constrain equilibrium climate sensitivity Kate Marvel Columbia University Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.montclair.edu/sustainability-seminar Part of the Sustainability Commons Marvel, Kate, "What can history tell us about the future? Using recent observations and paleoclimate proxies to constrain equilibrium climate sensitivity" (2021). Sustainability Seminar Series. 3. https://digitalcommons.montclair.edu/sustainability-seminar/2021/spring2021/3 This Open Access is brought to you for free and open access by the Conferences, Symposia and Events at Montclair State University Digital Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in Sustainability Seminar Series by an authorized administrator of Montclair State University Digital Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. The Doctoral Program in Environmental Science & Management and MSU Sustainability Seminar Series Present: What can history tell us about the future? Using recent observaons and paleoclimate proxies to constrain equilibrium climate sensi/vity Kate Marvel, Columbia University WHEN: March 1, 3:45 pm WHERE: Online via Zoom Dr. Marvel uses climate models, observaons, paleoclimate reconstruc/ons, and basic theory to study climate change. Her work has iden/fied human influences on present-day cloud cover, rainfall paerns, and drought risk. She is also interested in future climate changes, par/cularly climate feedback processes and the planet's sensi/vity to increased carbon dioxide. Dr. Marvel teaches in Columbia's MA in Climate & Society Program and writes the "Hot Planet" column for Scien&fic American. Named one of "15 Women Who Will Save the World" by Time Magazine, she has been profiled by the New York Times and Rolling Stone, and her 2017 TED talk has been viewed over one million /mes. Before becoming a climate scien/st, she received a PhD in theore/cal par/cle physics from Cambridge University, where she was a Gates scholar. Despite improvements in compu/ng power, climate modeling, and basic theore/cal understanding, the Earth’s physical response to a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide remains uncertain. Can observaons be useful in constraining this theore/cal quan/ty? We have high-quality informaon on recent trends: greenhouse gas concentraons have increased since the industrial revolu/on, and the planet has warmed in response. But I will argue that this recent history provides only weak constraints on the eventual climate sensi/vity: observaons of a transient climate are poor predictors of a future equilibrium state. Reconstruc/ons of past equilibria both colder (the Last Glacial Maximum) and warmer (the mid-Pliocene) than the present provide stronger constraints, sugges/ng that the extremely high climate sensi/vi/es of some state-of-the-art climate models are unrealis/c. I’ll present a framework for facilitang apples-to-apples comparisons of past and future climate and discuss how to understand, reduce, and communicate the uncertain/es associated with future climate response. for more informaon, please contact Dr. Mark Chopping at [email protected] .

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