The Baltic Sea Region: Hard and Soft Security Reconsidered the Baltic Sea Region: Hard and Soft Security Reconsidered
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The Baltic Sea Region: Hard and Soft Security Reconsidered The Baltic Sea Region: Hard and Soft Security Reconsidered Editors: Māris Andžāns Ilvija Bruģe Latvian Institute of International Affairs Riga, 2016 Supported by: The Baltic Sea Region: Hard and Soft Security Reconsidered The Baltic Sea region has experienced profound alterations since the Cold War, and the region’s course of evolution is likely to continue as such. The book “The Baltic Sea Region: Hard and Soft Security Reconsidered” provides a collection of opinions that assess the current situation both in the military as well as non-military fields, with a particular focus on the aftermath of the 2016 NATO Warsaw summit and the state of the play of the regional infrastructure interconnections. The book is the result of successful collaboration between the Latvian Institute of International Affairs, the Public Diplomacy Division of NATO, the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung and the Nordic Council of Ministers. Editors: Māris Andžāns, Ilvija Bruģe Scientific editor: Andris Sprūds Authors: Mika Aaltola, Kristiāns Andžāns, Māris Andžāns, Reinis Āboltiņš, Ilvija Bruģe, Tomas Janeliūnas, Kai-Olaf Lang, Wojciech Lorenz, Claudia Morsut, Henrik Praks, Gunda Reire, Kristina Rimkūnaitė, Anke Schmidt-Felzmann, Bengt Sundelius, Margarita Šešelgytė, Ivan Timofeev, Viljar Veebel This publication is an effort of the Latvian Institute of International Affairs with support by Friedrich Ebert Stiftung, NATO Public Diplomacy Division and Nordic Council of Ministers’ Office in Latvia. The opinions expressed here are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the positions of the Latvian Institute of International Affairs or any of the sponsors, or represent the opinion of any government authority or ministry. English language editor: Josu Samaniego del Campo Cover design: Līga Rozentāle Layout: Oskars Stalidzāns The book is published in collaboration with the Publishers Hansa Print Riga. © Authors of the articles, 2016 ISBN 978-9984-583-89-1 © Layout: Oskars Stalidzāns UDK 355.02(4)+327(4) © Cover design: Līga Rozentāle An318 © Latvian Institute of International Affairs Table of Contents Introductory Remarks: A Contested Region in the Times of Constant Realignments Māris Andžāns . 7 Possible Nordic-Baltic Security Developments and Responses in Face of the Russia Challenge: A Perspective from Finland Mika Aaltola . 10 Aftermath of the NATO Warsaw Summit – Effects on the Security of the Baltic Sea Region . A perspective from Poland Wojciech Lorenz . 25 Warsaw Decisions: Is the Glass Half Full or Half Empty? A Perspective from Lithuania Margarita Šešelgytė . 35 NATO Warsaw Summit – Implications for Estonia Henrik Praks . 45 Russia and NATO in the Baltic Ivan Timofeev . 56 Energy Security in the Baltic Sea region: EU Members of the Region between Integration and Discord Kai-Olaf Lang . 66 On Opposite Shores, Not Just Geographically: German and Swedish Perspectives on Nord Stream and Energy Insecurity with Russia in the Baltic Sea Region Anke Schmidt-Felzmann . 75 Energy Infrastructure in the Baltic Sea Region: The Backbone of Energy Security Reinis Āboltiņš . 100 Klaipeda’s LNG Terminal – Unilateral Decision for a Common Gain Tomas Janeliūnas, Kristina Rimkūnaitė . 112 The Rail Baltica Project: Connecting the Baltic States or Connecting the Baltic States with the Baltic Sea Region? Kristiāns Andžāns . 124 Balancing between Greater Safety and Endless Donations: Various Facets of the Inter-Connectivity of the Baltic Countries Based on the Example of the Rail Baltic Project . A Perspective from Estonia Viljar Veebel . 141 Societal Security: An Emerging Field of Scholarship Underpinning Practices in the Baltic Sea Region Bengt Sundelius . 157 Resilience Challenges in the Baltic Countries Gunda Reire . 169 Looking for Societal Security in the Norwegian Government’s Discourse on Integration Claudia Morsut . 179 Conclusions: Unity as the Way Forward Ilvija Bruģe . 201 About the Authors . 205 Introductory Remarks: A Contested Region in the Times of Constant Realignments Māris Andžāns The shores of the Baltic Sea have experienced profound changes during the 20th and 21st century . During the Cold War, the region was dominated by the Soviet Union and its 1955 “Warsaw Pact” subsidiaries to cover the Eastern and the Southern shores of the sea whereas the non-aligned Sweden and Finland covered most of the remaining parts . Regional and cooperative interaction dynamics were considerably limited by the international system level factors and actors . The collapse of the Soviet Union allowed to unfold a multi-layer and multi-level regional cooperation dimension . It raised prospects of further regional rapprochement and integration among the countries at the shores of the sea – both at the national and sub-national levels, such fields as the political, economic, societal, environmental and others . Institutionalized multilateral cooperation formats and bilateral mechanisms have since then promoted cooperation . Interaction particularly intensified between and among the Baltic states and the Nordic States as the later assisted the Baltic states to undergo significant reforms in their state re-building processes after the occupation of the Soviet Union . The relative cooperative optimism of the 1990s started to fade with the definition and re-definition of the strategic priorities of countries surrounding the Baltic Sea . Russia gradually became increasingly assertive in establishing and following its own path with its implications also for the Baltic Sea region that among other things included a higher level of centralization of its regional cooperation policies . By 2004, not only Sweden and Finland but also Poland and the Baltic states had joined the European Union and all but the two former ones had also joined the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) . The Baltic Sea region has become 7 increasingly “Europeanised” and “Westernised” in political, economic and military areas, particularly when compared to the Cold War period . The prospects of a multi-level and multi-layer cooperative Baltic Sea region model increasingly faded away with the assertive Russia’s foreign policy in the territory of the former Soviet Union and beyond . Its 2008 war with Georgia and intervention in Ukraine since 2014 markedly decreased the levels of trust towards Russia in the societies and political elites of the Baltic states and Poland in particular, leading to definition of Russia as a meaningful source of threats . Russia also has steadily increased its military capacity and activity in the waters of the Baltic Sea, the air space above the sea as well as on the ground near the Baltic states and Poland . 61 years after the inception of the “Warsaw Pact”, “Warsaw” symbolically bears a very different meaning . Decisions taken at the 2016 NATO Summit held in Warsaw paved the way for major practical steps in reinvigorating the Article 5 of the 1949 North Atlantic Treaty . Most importantly, the heads of state and government of NATO agreed to establish an enhanced forward presence in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland . It is expected that the enhanced forward presence along with other enhanced and NATO mechanisms will serve as a credible deterrent against potential cruel intentions of Russia . However, regardless of Russia’s intentions in the region, Russia possesses military capabilities that make the Baltic states practically indefensible in the case a full spectrum of Russia’s potential is employed . Therefore, not only effective and credible deterrence but also dialogue with Russia is essential to decrease the risks of intended or unintended escalations . Not only in the military realm has the Baltic Sea region seen considerable realignments . The Baltic states have traditionally been considered as an “island” in the European Union both in terms of their energy and railway connections, given the inherited connections from the past . With the already completed and ongoing projects in connecting their natural gas and energy grids with the Nordic countries and Poland as well as with the establishment of a liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal in Lithuania, the Baltic states, as a minimum, have become as an “energy peninsula” of the European Union . The expected construction of the “Rail 8 Baltica” railroad line – a “European gauge” connection – will increase the connectivity not only between the Baltic states but also with their neighbours and the Western European countries in the longer term . Even though different unresolved issues in regards to the energy and railway connections remain, the interconnectivity of the European Union member states of the Baltic Sea region will increase . Simultaneously, interaction between the Baltic states and Russia is likely to decrease – not only in the energy sector, but also in the cargo transportation, since a gradual reorientation of Russia’s cargo is likely to be inevitable towards its own ports . At the same time, the natural gas connection established by the “Nord Stream” between Russia and Germany will retain a meaningful Russia’s role in the energy policy of some of the countries in the region for a foreseeable future . There are different other risks related to the interaction among some or all of the Baltic Sea region countries as well as the internal and external factors resulting, for example, from uneven development and socio- economic cohesion in some parts, or societal cohesion– not only on the Eastern side of the Baltic Sea but also in the Nordic countries as