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In Indonesia in Resources, Renewable Opportunities to Invest Energy + OPPORTUNITIES TO INVEST IN RESOURCES, RENEWABLE ENERGY + INFRASTRUCTURE IN INDONESIA 2019 Opportunities to Invest in Resources, Renewable Energy and Infrastructure in Indonesia CONTENTS 1 ECONOMIC OVERVIEW 1.1 ECONOMIC OVERVIEW OF INDONESIA in the current account deficit, of more than 67%, from approximately US$4.6 billion in the second quarter of Indonesia is currently the largest economy in southeast 2017 to approximately US$8 billion in the second quarter Asia and is predicted to become the world’s fourth largest of 2018. 1 ECONOMIC OVERVIEW 3 economy by 2050.1 Some of the main drivers of strong projected economic growth in Indonesia are its favourable The recent increase in the current account deficit9 has demographics – it is estimated that approximately 50% of been accompanied by a slight weakening in the value of its population of 262 million (in 2017) are under the age of the Indonesian Rupiah which has slid from approximately AUSTRALIAN COMPANY PROFILES 9 302 – and its emerging middle class: real income growth Rp13,800:US$1 in early 2018 to Rp1,4129:US$1 as at 18 2 will lift private consumption. Infrastructure investment will October 2019,10 a decline of approximately 2.5%. also remain high.3 Various reasons have been advanced for the rapidly As Indonesia fast approaches the position of the world’s increasing current account deficit but Indonesia’s 3 OPPORTUNITIES IN RESOURCES 15 fourth largest economy by 2050, it will find itself with unfortunate position, as a growing net oil importer in a the power to influence the Indo-Pacific region, shape time of rising oil prices, is almost certainly one of the its economic and political architecture, and be a global main reasons. influence.4 OPPORTUNITIES IN RENEWABLE ENERGY 32 The above facts indicate that the macroeconomic 4 The level of ease of doing business in Indonesia is outlook for Indonesia, as a whole, is positive. Indonesia improving slowly, and since mid-2015, the Government is predicted to achieve a prolonged period of economic has prioritised reforms aimed at improving the business growth in order to become the world’s fourth largest climate, including streamlining procedures for setting up economy by 2050. Given Indonesia’s expected rise OPPORTUNITIES IN INFRASTRUCTURE 38 5 and running a business.5 to become an economic powerhouse, it is becoming increasingly important for Australia to cement itself as Below are Indonesia’s key economic indicators6 which show a key trading partner of Indonesia so we can capitalise that in 2019, Indonesia’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on the economic opportunities that will flow as a result was US $1.1 trillion and its real GDP growth (% change year 6 OPPORTUNITIES IN METS 43 of this rise. However, it is clear that Indonesia will not on year (yoy)) was 5.2% and it’s population in 2018 was achieve its ambitious growth trajectory without the 264.2 million, and increase of 0.84%.7 support of foreign investment and capital, particularly in Indonesia’s current account position has been infrastructure and education which have been cited on 7 KEY INDUSTRY CONTACTS 48 deteriorating for the past two years and now shows a a number of occasions as being of strategic importance very substantial deficit.8 More precisely, the current to the Government. Although Indonesia has made some account deficit is greater than US$8 billion at the start of significant strides to improve the investment climate and 2019 compared to a quarterly average of approximately the ease of doing business, there still remains areas for 8 RELEVANT EXPERIENCE 46 US$4 billion over the period second quarter 2015 to first improvement to encourage greater foreign investment. quarter 2017. There was a particularly dramatic increase General Information 9 AUTHORS 52 Capital Jakarta Official language Bahasa Indonesia Population 264.20 million (2018) Currency Rupiah 10 CONTRIBUTORS 53 Economic indicators 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 GDP (US$b) (current prices) 891.1 860.7 932.4 1,015.4 1,100.9 1,075.0 GDP per capita (US$) 3,533.6 3,369.4 3,604.3 3,875.8 4,051.7 4,123.3 Real GDP growth (% change yoy) 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.2 Inflation (% change yoy) 6.4 6.4 3.5 3.8 3.2 3.3 Unemployment (% labour force) 5.9 6.2 5.6 5.5 5.3 5.2 3 Opportunities to Invest in Resources, Renewable Energy and Infrastructure in Indonesia Opportunities to Invest in Resources, Renewable Energy and Infrastructure in Indonesia 1.2 AUSTRALIA’S TRADE AND INVESTMENT The share of two-way trade in 2016 among the sixteen 1.3 INDONESIA-AUSTRALIA COMPREHENSIVE modern rules on digital trade. Obligations are balanced RELATIONSHIP WITH INDONESIA contiguous dyads within the G20 (countries which share ECONOMIC PARTNERSHIP AGREEMENT – with robust safeguards to preserve Australia’s right to either a land or maritime border), reveals that Indonesia 18 Despite Indonesia being Australia’s closest northern OPPORTUNITIES FOR INCREASED TRADE regulate in the public interest. and Australia have the lowest bilateral trade volumes of any AND INVESTMENT neighbour, the two-way bilateral trade and investment (c) Services and investment – highlights contiguous pairing within the G20, accounting for 2.8 and relationship between Indonesia and Australia is regularly (a) Introduction 2.0 percent of each other’s two-way trade respectively. (i) Mining and related services Australian ownership described as “underdone”.11 The two countries have Even Russia, which was the subject of economic sanctions On 4 March 2019, the Indonesia-Australia up 67% of contract mining services and mine site unexpectedly low levels of trade and investment links for by some G20 members during 2016, had deeper trade Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (IA- preparation services. economies which share a border.12 CEPA) was signed by the Government of Indonesia and relations with several of those countries with sanctions in (ii) Construction services – Australian ownership up Analysis completed by the Perth USAsia Centre shows the Commonwealth Government of Australia.14 place than the relationship between Australia and Indonesia. to 67% for most construction-related work. that trade relations among the G20 economies reveals the Australia’s trade and investment relationship with Indonesia After consideration of the IA-CEPA (including paucity of Australia-Indonesia economic ties.13 (iii) Energy: is illustrated in the table below: consideration of public submissions and the necessary consultation processes with relevant stakeholders), Indonesia committed to allow Australian Australia’s trade and investment relationship with Indonesia on 9 October 2019, the Joint Standing Committee ownership up to: on Treaties (JSCOT) (who considers tabled treaties Australian merchandise trade with Indonesia, 2018 (A$m) Total share Rank Growth + 95% of power plants (more than 10 megawatts); in Australia, including IA-CEPA) tabled a report on Exports to Indonesia 6,823 2.0% 11th -2.4% Australia’s proposed IA-CEPA with Indonesia. JSCOT + 75% of oil and gas platform construction; Imports to Indonesia 4,996 1.6% 15th 18.9% has recommended ratification of the treaty.15 Note that + 67% for electrical power construction, Total merchandise trade (export + imports) 11,242 1.8% 13th 5.6% the submissions received by JSCOT in support of the IA- installation, operation and maintenance; Major Australian exports 2017 (A$m) Major Australian imports 2018 (A$m) CEPA are publicly available to view on the Parliament of Australia wesbsite.16 + 55% for electrical power installation Wheat 827 Crude Petroleum 1,108 constructions; Crude Petroleum 749 Refined Petroleum 468 The IA-CEPA is the main bilateral initiative deployed to rectify the gap in Indonesia-Australia economic relations. + 51% of geothermal power plants (10 megawatts Live animals (excl seafood) 702 Wood, simply worked 304 The goal of the IA-CEPA is to create a framework for or less); geothermal surveying, drilling and Coal 633 Footware 218 closer economic connections, by addressing barriers to operations; and offshore oil and gas drilling. Australia’s trade in services with Indonesia, 2018 (A$m) Total share Rank Growth trade (both tariff and non-tariff barriers) while improving (iv) Transport/infrastructure: mutual access to service markets. It also seeks to increase Exports of services Indonesia 1,6097 1.8% 14th 6.1% + Australian ownership up to 67% for highways, bilateral investments through facilitation and regulatory Imports of services Indonesia 4,068 4.2% 6th 13.8% bridges, tunnel concessions and parking cooperation measures.17 Major Australian services exports, 2018 (A$m) Major Australian service imports 20178 (A$m) services and 51% for operation of railways. (b) Key outcomes of the IA-CEPA for Australian Education-related travel 899 Personal travel excluding education 3,454 (v) Wastewater management: business – services and investment Personal travel excluding education 441 Transport 259 + Australian ownership up to 67% of Market access outcomes on services and investment will Australia’s investment relationship with Indonesia, 2017 (A$m) Total FDI wastewater mangement. provide increased certainty to Australian businesses and Australia’s investment in Indonesia 5,632 2,283 services suppliers in the Indonesian market, including (vi) Professional Services Indonesia’s investment in Australia 1,076 1 guaranteed levels of Australian ownership. Indonesia’s + Australian ownership up to 67% of commitments are much stronger than they have ever architectural, urban planning and most agreed to before in a trade agreement. Indonesia will engineering and surveying services. Indonesia’s global merchandise trade relationships not be able to limit the level of Australian ownership – or require that ownership be divested – below the (vii) Work training: Indonesia’s principal export destinations, 2017 Indonesia’s principal import destinations, 2017 percentages agreed (with limited exceptions). IA-CEPA + Australian ownership up to 67% for supplying 1 China 15.1% 1 China 24.1% also contains a set of high-quality, modern rules governing certain technical and vocational training.
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