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GROCERY UNIVERSE 2015 RESULTS OF THE 53D INVENTORY OF RETAIL GROCERY IN BELGIUM, DRAWN UP BY NIELSEN. Any reproduction, representation or use of one or various elements of this report must show the full mention: Source: Nielsen TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. Nielsen in brief 2. Belgian Economy & Retail in 2014 3. The Nielsen Grocery Universe 3.1 Turnover and inflation 3.2 Number of stores 3.3 Market share by Shop Type 3.4 Sales surface 3.5 Discounters in Belgium 3.6 Regional characteristics 3.7 Private labels 4. Retailing in Europe 4.1 International Shop Types 4.2 Discounters in Europe 5. The Nielsen Services Nielsen Grocery Universe 2015 │ Copyright ©2015 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. 2 1. NIELSEN IN BRIEF THE NIELSEN COMPANY For 92 years Nielsen services have been making the FMCG (Fast Moving Consumer Goods) market visible and comprehensible for manufacturers and retailers. Nielsen is the world’s leading provider of information and market analysis in the consumer and service sectors thanks to the quality of its data, the accessibility of its analyses, the expertise it has built up over more than 92 years of practical experience and the rapidity with which it communicates its findings. • Established in the United States in 1923 by Arthur C. Nielsen • Operates in over a hundred countries • Active in Belgium since 1954 ‒ Over 200 regular clients ‒ Studies more than 400 product categories This overview represents the results of the 53d inventory of the world of retail grocery sector, drawn up every year by Nielsen. Nielsen Grocery Universe 2015 │ Copyright ©2015 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. 4 2. THE ECONOMY & RETAIL IN 2014 Oil prices crash Russia put an embargo on food EBOLA epidemic Declining inflation on European Election food prices Copyright ©2015 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. and Confidential Company. NielsenThe ©2015 Copyright │ Gaza fight Air and maritime disasters Nielsen Grocery Universe 2015 2015 Universe Grocery Nielsen 6 BELGIUM: THE NIELSEN BAROMETER EVOLUTION The turnover has grown by +2.4% thanks to the price inflation and to the volumes. FMCG: Sales Value Sales Volume Price of Package Sold Food & Non Food % 2014 vs 2013 +2.4% +1.2% +1.2% % 2013 vs 2012 +2.2% +0.0% +2.2% % 2012 vs 2011 +2.2% +0.1% +2.1% % 2011 vs 2010 +3.2% +0.8% +2.4% Copyright ©2015 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. and Confidential Company. NielsenThe ©2015 Copyright │ % 2010 vs 2009 +1.1% +0.9% +0.3% (*) The Nielsen Barometer shows the trend as a percentage of sales of a representative group of FMCG products in the retail sector in Belgium Nielsen Grocery Universe 2015 2015 Universe Grocery Nielsen 7 BELGIUM: FMCG TRENDS PER YEAR AND PER QUARTER A positive volume trend is noticed for the last quarter of 2013 and stays for the beginning of 2014. Volumes are declining in Q3 and Q4 2014 versus 2013. Copyright ©2015 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. and Confidential Company. NielsenThe ©2015 Copyright │ Source: Nielsen Growth Reporter Nielsen Grocery Universe 2015 2015 Universe Grocery Nielsen 8 3. NIELSEN GROCERY UNIVERSE 2014 DEFINITION OF THE GROCERY UNIVERSE The grocery sector includes the following: 1. Retail stores in Belgium selling at least four of the following food categories: • Edible fats • Canned goods • Bottled drinks • Drinks in the form of solid substances (e.g. coffee and tea) • Pasta • Confectionery 2. ‘Food’ sales also have to represent at least 40% of total turnover Are excluded: 1. Stores that generate more than 50% of their turnover through the sale of meat products or fish and shellfish. 2. Stores specialising in diet foods. 3. Stores that are part of petrol stations (e.g. Yelloh, Shop ‘n Go, etc…) Turnover We take into account the total turnover generated during the course of the past year. For stores that only opened during the course of the year, sales are extrapolated for a full year. For stores that closed during the course of the year, Nielsen assumes that no sales at all were made in that year. For hypermarkets, only the turnover for the food, paper products, care products and cleaning products departments is taken into account. Nielsen Grocery Universe 2015 │ Copyright ©2015 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. 10 DEVELOPMENTS IN 2014 • Domestic consumption increased slightly (+ 1.6%) while the importance of the Grocery Universe increased by+0.1 pt. Households have spent relatively more in the Grocery Universe compared to their total expenditure. • The turnover of the Grocery Universe rose to EUR 25 billion in 2014. This means a +2% increase compared to the year before. In 2014, the inflation rate was 0.34%, which is lower than in 2013. This means that the turnover in constant has grown by 1.7%. The Nielsen Growth Reporter showed that volumes and prices are equally growing. • There were 7 203 stores in the universe in 2014. This is 86 stores less than in 2013. Between 2005 and 2014, the number of points of sale fell on average by 125 stores per year. Between 1995 and 2014, on the other hand, an average of 302 stores closed per year. • The share of F1 declined by -1.2 pts to 50.3% even if they opened 12 extra stores in 2014 bringing their total to 609 stores. • F2 and Hard Discounters have increased their market shares. F2 owns a MS of 28.8% which represents an increase of +0.8pt versus 2013. Hard Discount grew by +0.6pt to 16.1% in Belgium. F2 opened 8 new shops (1320 in total) while the number of stores coming from the Hard Discount has decreased (- 2 shops; 737 in total). • The market share of F3 keeps on declining. In 2014 they lost -0.2 points to 4.8%. The number of stores also decreased to 4 537 stores (-104 stores vs 2013). Nielsen Grocery Universe 2015 │ Copyright ©2015 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. 11 3.1 TURNOVER AND INFLATION TURNOVER GROCERY UNIVERSE IN BILLIONS OF EURO Turnover of the Grocery Universe increased by +2.0% to 25 billion euro in 2014. When eliminating the effect of the inflation, evolution turnover at constant price remains positive. Copyright ©2015 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. and Confidential Company. NielsenThe ©2015 Copyright │ Current Prices: Prices including inflation Constant Prices: Prices excluding inflation Nielsen Grocery Universe 2015 2015 Universe Grocery Nielsen 13 INFLATION PER YEAR The inflation rate has declined over the past years and reached 0.34% in 2014. Copyright ©2015 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. and Confidential Company. NielsenThe ©2015 Copyright │ Source: Federal Public Service for the Economy, SME’s, Self-employed and Energy Nielsen Grocery Universe 2015 2015 Universe Grocery Nielsen 14 INFLATION PER TYPE OF PRODUCT/SERVICE Highest inflation rate is noticed in Services in 2014. On the other hand, Food and Non-Food inflation have been decreasing and negative over 2014. Copyright ©2015 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. and Confidential Company. NielsenThe ©2015 Copyright │ Source: Federal Public Service for the Economy, SME’s, Self-employed and Energy Nielsen Grocery Universe 2015 2015 Universe Grocery Nielsen 15 EVOLUTION TURNOVER GROCERY UNIVERSE VERSUS YEAR BEFORE Even without the effect of the inflation, turnover at constant prices has increased by 1.7%. Copyright ©2015 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. and Confidential Company. NielsenThe ©2015 Copyright │ Current Prices: Prices including inflation Fixed Prices: Prices excluding inflation Nielsen Grocery Universe 2015 2015 Universe Grocery Nielsen 16 FOOD UNIVERSE MARKET SHARES IN TOTAL PRIVATE CONSUMPTION Over the past 3 years, the grocery universe has slightly become more important in our total expenditure. Copyright ©2015 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. and Confidential Company. NielsenThe ©2015 Copyright │ Source: National Bank of Belgium - Nielsen Food Universe Nielsen Grocery Universe 2015 2015 Universe Grocery Nielsen 17 3.2 NUMBER OF STORES DEFINITION NIELSEN SHOP TYPES F1 : LARGE DISTRIBUTION (LIMITED PANEL) • GROUP CARREFOUR BELGIUM: Carrefour Hypermarkets, Carrefour Market Integrated , Carrefour Market Groupe Mestdagh • GROUP COLRUYT: Colruyt • GROUP DELHAIZE: Supermarkets Delhaize • GROUP LOUIS DELHAIZE: Cora, Match F2 : AVERAGED SIZE DISTRIBUTION • ALVO • GROUP CARREFOUR BELGIUM: Carrefour Market Franchised • GROUP COLRUYT: Okay, Spar Retail (supermarkets Spar) • GROUP DELHAIZE: AD Delhaize, Superettes, Proxy Delhaize, Delhaize City, Red Market • GROUP INTERMARCHÉ: Intermarché, Ecomarché • GROUP LOUIS DELHAIZE: Profi, Smatch • Other Supermarkets over 400 m² F3 : SMALL DISTRIBUTION All self service shops that have a commercial surface under 400m² that aren’t mentioned above (e.g. Supra, Spar and Prima (Lambrechts), Carrefour Express, Louis Delhaize (Group Louis Delhaize)), and all shops with a « traditional service » (e.g. night-shops »). HARD DISCOUNTERS Aldi & Lidl Nielsen Grocery Universe 2015 │ Copyright ©2015 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. 19 NUMBER OF STORES IN THE GROCERY UNIVERSE There are 7 203 grocery stores in Belgium (-86 stores). The number has (steadily) decreased over the last decades because of a more intense and centralized organisation of the universe. Copyright ©2015 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. and Confidential Company. NielsenThe ©2015 Copyright │ Evolution vs previous year (%): -4% -2% -1% -2% -2% -1% -1% -1% -2% -1% -3% -1% Nielsen Grocery Universe 2015 2015 Universe Grocery Nielsen 20 NUMBER OF F1 STORES: LARGE SCALE DISTRIBUTION The large scaled distribution consists of 609 stores and has opened more and more stores over the past years. Copyright ©2015 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. and Confidential Company. NielsenThe ©2015 Copyright │ Nielsen Grocery Universe 2015 2015 Universe Grocery Nielsen 21 NUMBER OF F2 STORES: MEDIUM-SIZED DISTRIBUTION After the closing of less profitable shops from 1995 to 2003, the number of F2 stores (mostly franchised) has increased over the past years bringing the total to 1 320 stores in 2014 (+8).
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