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The Brics Superpower Challenge THE BRICS SUPERPOWER CHALLENGE The BRICs Superpower Challenge Foreign and Security Policy Analysis KWANG HO CHUN Chonbuk National University, Korea First published 2013 by Ashgate Publishing Published 2016 by Routledge 2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN 711 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10017, USA Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business Copyright © Kwang Ho Chun 2013 Kwang Ho Chun has asserted his right under the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act, 1988, to be identified as the author of this work. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers. Notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe. British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library The Library of Congress has cataloged the printed edition as follows: Chun, Kwang Ho. The BRICs superpower challenge : foreign and security policy analysis / by Kwang Ho Chun. pages cm ISBN 978-1-4094-6869-1 (hardback : alk. paper) — ISBN 978-1-4094-6870-7 (ebook) — ISBN 978-1-4094-6871-4 (epub) 1. World politics—21st century. 2. Security, International. 3. Brazil—Foreign relations—21st century. 4. Russia (Federation)—Foreign relations—21st century. 5. India—Foreign relations—21st century. 6. China—Foreign relations—21st century. I. Title. JZ1310.C495 2013 327—dc23 2013021069 ISBN 13 : 978-1-4094-6869-1 (hbk) Contents Acknowledgements vii List of Abbreviations ix PART I BACKGROUND 1 Introduction 3 2 The Concept of Superpower 15 PART II THE BRICS: POLITICAL RELATIONS, FOREIGN POLICY AND MILITARY POWER 3 Introduction to Part II 35 4 Brazil 41 5 Russia 65 6 India 93 8 The BRICs and International Security 131 9 Summary of Part II 141 PART III PROJECTING THE FUTURE: THE BRICS FACTOR AND FUTURE INTERNATIONAL POWER RELATIONS 10 Introduction to Part III 147 11 Brazil 149 12 Russia 157 13 India 165 14 China 173 vi The BRICs Superpower Challenge 15 The BRICs as a Bloc: Their Collective Role in Shaping Future Geopolitics 181 16 Are there Prospects of the BRICs Being the Next Superpower? 185 PART IV CONCLUSIONS 17 Conclusions 207 Bibliography 213 Index 227 Acknowledgements I would like to thank all those who helped me to complete this research. My thanks go to Dr Chungwon Choue, who first inspired me on this topic and in starting my research, Prof. Dr Luc Reychler of Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Prof. Dr André-Paul Frognier of Université Catholique de Louvain, Prof. Christoph Bluth of the University of Leeds and Prof. Hazel Smith of the Woodrow Wilson Center. They all helped me develop and polish my ideas regarding this research topic through valuable comments and constructive criticism. I would particularly like to express my whole-hearted gratitude to my lifetime adviser, Dr Chungwon Choue. I am equally grateful to Dr Guh Suk Seo, the President of Chonbuk National University, Korea for his financial and undoubted support and trust in me as a researcher. They ceaselessly encouraged and stimulated my work with a great deal of kindness and endurance during my research. I also wish to acknowledge the assistance of those who offered me valuable comments on the text, including my editor, Brian Austerfield of the University of Central Lancashire. This research required an enormous amount of material and a number of occasions for practical observation of the BRICs countries. The Royal United Service Institute, the International Institute for Strategic Studies and University of Central Lancashire helped me greatly in this matter. I would like to extend my warm gratitude to members of all these research centres and many others. Finally, I also would like to take this opportunity to express my deepest love to my family, Dr Sung Eun Kim and Hyung Mo. The completion of this work in England was possible only thanks to my family’s full-time support, endurance and sacrifice. List of Abbreviations APEC Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation ARF ASEAN Regional Forum ASCM anti-ship cruise missile ASEAN Association of South East Asian Nations ASEM Asia–Europe Meeting ASF African Support Force AU African Union BNDES Brazilian Development Bank BRICs Brazil, Russia, India and China C4ISR command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance CIS Commonwealth of Independent States CNO computer network operation CTR Cooperative Threat Reduction DDG guided-missile destroyer EAS East Asia Summit EU European Union FDI foreign direct investment FOCAC Forum on China–Africa Cooperation FOCALAE Forum for East Asia–Latin America Cooperation GATT General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade GDP gross domestic product GICNT Global Initiative to Combat Nuclear Terrorism ICBM inter-continental ballistic missile IMF International Monetary Fund IR international relations IRC International Relations Center ISS International Institute for Strategic Studies ISTC International Science and Technology Center LACM land attack cruise missile MIC military-industrial complex MPC&A Materials Protection, Control and Accounting MTCR Missile Technology Control Regime NCO non-commissioned officer NGO non-governmental organization NPT Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty NRF NATO Response Force NSG Nuclear Suppliers Group x The BRICs Superpower Challenge OAS Organization of American States OPCW Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons OSCE Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe PLA People’s Liberation Army PLAAF People’s Liberation Army Air Force PLAN People’s Liberation Army Navy PRC People’s Republic of China RATS Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure SAM surface-to-air missile SCO Shanghai Cooperation Organization SLBM sea-launched ballistic missile SRBM short-range ballistic missile UAV unmanned aerial vehicle UNASUR Union of South American Nations UNSC United Nations Security Council WTO World Trade Organization PART I Background Chapter 1 Introduction Introduction Since the collapse of the USSR in the early 1990s, the United States has been enjoying a dominant position in the global power system as the sole superpower nation. However, there have been arguments by some international relations (IR) and political science academics and commentators to the effect that the US may not continue as the world’s sole superpower in the near future; rather, a power shift is likely to be witnessed as some of the contemporary major powers step up their resources and power games to become major forces in the global arena. At the dawn of the twenty-first century, some economic analysts, led by Goldman Sachs, noted the rapid pace with which the economies of the BRICs countries (an acronym for Brazil, Russia, India and China) were growing and noted that in the near future, their economies will have overtaken most of the current major world powers.1 In particular, Goldman Sachs extrapolated figures predicting that China’s economy would be the largest globally, having far overtaken that of the US, and that India’s economy would be almost on a par with that of the US. 2 According to Goldman Sachs, the combined economies of the BRICs will also catch up with or overtake those of the six major economies combined (see Figure 1.1).3 In a 2003 paper, Dominic Wilson and Roopa Purushothaman predicted that within about half a century, the BRICs would be the world’s ‘engine of new demand growth and spending power’, which would be better placed to ‘offset the impact of graying populations and slower growth in the advanced economies’.4 This revelation heightened the debate that had been under way among IR academics and analysts about the future of the BRICs in the global power system, and in particular what the future might hold for them. It is a debate that remains highly controversial to date. 1 Goldman Sachs, Building Better Global Economic BRICs, Global Economics Paper, 30 November 2001. See also Deutsche Bank, ‘Globale Wachstumszentren 2020. Formel-G für 34 Volkswirtschaften’, Aktuelle Themen 313 (2005). 2 Ibid. 3 The six major economies referred to are: the US, Japan, Germany, the UK, France and Italy. See Goldman Sachs, BRICs and Beyond (2007). See also Dominic Wilson and Roopa Purushothaman, ‘Dreaming With BRICs: The Path to 2050’, Goldman Sachs Global Economics Paper no. 99 (2003). 4 Ibid., p. 2. 4 The BRICs Superpower Challenge This book critically examines the BRICs countries’ potential, with a view to drawing conclusions about whether they have prospects of attaining world superpower status in the future, either individually or as a bloc.5 In exploring the research question, the author adopts June Dreyer’s concept of superpower: ‘a superpower must be able to project its power, soft and hard, globally’. 6 Since superpower status hinges on global projection of power beyond the nation’s borders, the BRICs’ foreign policies and military power will be central points of focus, as these are the core tools for advancing a country’s power externally. While military power is a significant source of hard power, foreign policy may be used to exercise both the soft and hard power.7 A clear understanding of the concept of superpower and why some nations are or were once categorized as superpowers is also essential in developing some of the checklists used to assess whether or not the BRICs may assume superpower status. Finally, it is vital to assess the BRICs’ relationships with each other and with other major global power determinants and entities in order to understand their possible impact on the BRICs’ current and future global power status. Synchronizing and consolidating this analysis enables us to arrive at conclusions about the prospects of the BRICs becoming future superpowers.
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