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Estimated Impacts of the Federal Carbon Pollution Pricing System

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Estimated Impacts of the Federal Carbon Pollution Pricing System ESTIMATED RESULTS OF THE FEDERAL CARBON POLLUTION PRICING SYSTEM Key Findings all provinces and territories have systems that Pricing carbon reduces pollution at the lowest meet the federal standard. This is equivalent cost to businesses and consumers. Around the to taking 23-26 million cars off the road for a world, businesses, governments and experts agree year1 or shutting down 20-23 coal-fired power that carbon pricing is the cheapest and most plants for a year.2 Without this contribution, efficient way to cut carbon pollution. According more costly regulatory interventions would to the World Bank’s 2017 State and Trends of be needed to meet our target. Carbon Pricing Report, sixty-seven jurisdictions, representing about half of the global economy, • GDP growth would remain strong with are putting a price on carbon. Leading businesses pan-Canadian carbon pricing. Applying across Canada have joined the World Bank’s the federal carbon pricing system to the Carbon Pricing Leadership Coalition: mining nine provinces and territories that are not companies, retailers, major energy companies pricing carbon pollution today would not be and Canada’s five biggest banks all support a expected to have any significant impact on price on carbon pollution. national economic growth rates in the context of a more than $2 trillion economy. It is also A well-designed price on carbon pollution likely to stimulate innovation, investments in provides an incentive for climate action and clean technology and benefit long-term clean innovation while protecting competitiveness. growth opportunities, although these benefits Carbon pricing is efficient and cost effective are not included in the modelling analysis. because it allows businesses and households to decide for themselves how best to reduce pollution A note about this analysis – and will often save money in the process. The scenario presented in this document is for This analysis examines the effects on emissions and illustrative purposes only. It is not intended to signal the economy of an illustrative scenario in which the any expectations on the part of the Government four provinces with carbon pricing systems today of Canada as to where the federal system will – British Columbia, Alberta, Ontario and Quebec, apply. Instead, we expect to see many of the representing 80 percent of Canada’s population nine jurisdictions not currently pricing carbon – meet the federal standard through 2022, and pollution develop their own carbon pricing systems. the other nine provinces and territories implement We have asked all jurisdictions to provide the the federal carbon pricing system. It finds that: details of their carbon pollution pricing systems by September 1, 2018. • Carbon pricing will make a significant Accurately assessing how pricing carbon pollution contribution towards meeting Canada’s could affect the economy and emissions depends greenhouse gas reduction target. A price on the choices governments make about which on carbon could cut carbon pollution across carbon pricing system they adopt – a direct price, Canada by 80 to 90 million tonnes in 2022, once a cap-and-trade system, or a hybrid system. How ESTIMATED RESULTS OF THE FEDERAL CARBON POLLUTION PRICING SYSTEM 1 they choose to use the revenues generated from and through the Low Carbon Economy Fund. carbon pricing also has a big impact. Revenue The plan aims to drive innovation and growth can be used for rebates, tax cuts, incentives by increasing technology development and for energy efficiency or investments in clean adoption to ensure Canadian businesses are infrastructure and innovation. Furthermore, competitive in the transition to a global clean forecasting future economic conditions involves economy. It also includes actions to advance simplifying very complex systems and making climate change adaptation and build resilience many assumptions, resulting in an inherent amount to climate impacts across the country. of uncertainty. In October 2016, the Government of Canada Thus, while this assessment provides a general published the Pan-Canadian approach to pricing indication of the potential results of carbon carbon pollution to ensure that carbon pricing pricing, it is not – nor could be, at this point in applies to a broad set of emission sources the development of provincial and territorial throughout Canada, beginning in 2018 and systems across Canada – a precise accounting increasing in stringency over time. of impacts. Appendix 1 to this document provides Under that approach, provinces and territories can a more detailed description of scenario and implement the type of carbon pricing system that economic modelling approach. makes sense for their circumstances, provided it meets the federal standard. We have committed Overview of the federal approach to work with the territories to find solutions that to pricing pollution address their unique circumstances. The Pan-Canadian Framework on Clean Growth and Climate Change is Canada’s plan – developed The federal government also committed to with the provinces and territories and with input implement a federal carbon pollution pricing from Indigenous peoples – to meet our emissions system that will apply on January 1, 2019, in whole reduction targets, grow the economy, and build or in part, in any province or territory that requests it resilience to a changing climate. The plan includes or that does not have a carbon pricing system in a pan-Canadian approach to pricing carbon place in 2018 that meets the federal standard. pollution, and measures to achieve reductions The federal government will return all direct revenue across all sectors of the economy, including major from its carbon pricing system to the jurisdiction 3 investments in infrastructure, clean technology, of origin. 2 ESTIMATED RESULTS OF THE FEDERAL CARBON POLLUTION PRICING SYSTEM Projected greenhouse gas emissions in Canada with and without carbon pricing 780 Greenhouse Gas 760 Emissions (Mt) Emissions Reductions 740 from carbon pricing: 720 80-90 million tonnes 700 680 660 640 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Carbon Pricing Scenario No carbon pricing in Canada Estimated Emission Reductions Without carbon pricing, Canada would be 80 to Across Canada 90 million tonnes further from its target, and would Under the scenario in this analysis, carbon pricing have to fill that gap using less cost effective policies, would reduce greenhouse gas pollution by such as regulations or investments.9 between 80 and 90 million tonnes in 2022, making a significant contribution to meeting Canada’s The estimated emission reductions attributed national target. This is equivalent to taking between to pricing pollution include: 23 and 26 million cars off the road for one year,4 or • Reductions from existing provincial carbon to shutting down 20 to 23 coal-fired power plants pricing systems in B.C., Alberta, Ontario and for a year (for comparison, there are 24 million cars Quebec, with increasing stringency to meet on the road and 16 coal plants in operation in all the federal standard, and compared to a of Canada today).5 hypothetical scenario in which they did not have pricing systems in place.10,11 British Columbia’s direct price on carbon pollution has been in place since 2008. Analyses suggest • Reductions from applying the federal carbon that the policy has reduced emissions by 5-15%.6 pricing system in the nine provinces and Meanwhile, provincial real GDP grew more than territories that do not currently have pricing 17% from 2007 to 2015,7 outpacing the rest of systems in place. Canada, and per-capita gasoline demand dropped 15% between 2007 and 2014.8 ESTIMATED RESULTS OF THE FEDERAL CARBON POLLUTION PRICING SYSTEM 3 Pricing Pollution in Perspective Clean Fuel Standard Coal 30 Mt phase-out (2030) 16 Mt (2030) Carbon Pricing 80-90 Mt Methane regulations (2022) 21 Mt (2025) Complementary Measures public transit all help Canadians use less energy Carbon pricing is a critical element of Canada’s and make cleaner choices that can save them clean growth and climate plan and a major part money, including by reducing their exposure to of meeting our national target. However, it was carbon prices. Investments in clean technology never intended to be the only policy measure in and innovation help accelerate development of the plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. the next generation of technologies and ideas Relying exclusively on a carbon price to achieve that will further improve efficiencies and lower Canada’s emission targets would require a very emissions in the future. high price. Instead, Canada’s climate plan includes complementary policies and investments that work The Pan-Canadian Framework on Clean Growth in concert with carbon pollution pricing to reduce and Climate Change includes measures across emissions across the economy.12 As Canada’s the economy to reduce emissions, including: Ecofiscal Commission has pointed out, complementary measures are particularly • Phasing out coal-fired electricity by 2030; important to target emissions that cannot be • Reducing reliance on diesel in northern, covered by carbon pricing and to boost the remote and Indigenous communities; price signal in certain markets.13 • Improving vehicle efficiency, and putting more zero-emission vehicles on the road; These complementary measures will help make • Developing a Clean Fuel Standard; carbon pricing more effective, create incentives • Cutting methane emissions from the oil for innovation and clean growth, and will reduce and gas sector; the
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