BBCM Presidential Election Guide 2013 "The year of the Political Epic" BBCM Iran Presidential Election Guide 2013 "The year of the Political Epic"

Contents

1. Introduction - Surprises - Turnout and legitimacy

2. The State - Supreme Leader - President - Guardian Council - Majlis - Expediency Council - Assembly of Experts

3. Election Law - Amendments - Campaigning - Vetting

4. Media Policy - State TV - Provincial TV - Curbs on media - Televised debates - "Electioneering"

5. Presidency - a poisoned chalice? - Bani-Sadr - Raja'i - Hashemi-Rafsanjani - Khatami - Ahmadinezhad

6. Candidates - Principle-ists - Ahmadinezhad supporters - Reformists

7. Facts and Figures - Election Timetable

Jeffrey Coonjohn, Senior Policy Advisor (Anti-Corruption) www.jjcoonjohn.com / [email protected] BBCM Iran Presidential Election Guide 2013 "The year of the Political Epic"

1. Introduction

The 11th Iranian presidential election is due to take place on 14 June 2013, a year which Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamene'i has described as the "year of the political and economic epic". The election is seen by many as a possible turning point for the country's domestic and foreign policy. Apart from the ongoing nuclear stand-off with the West, Iran faces major economic challenges as it comes to grips with far-reaching US-EU sanctions.

The 2013 election will mark the end of President Mahmud Ahmadinezhad's turbulent two terms in office. Iranian law limits the presidency to two consecutive terms only.

The last presidential election in 2009 was marked by widespread protests following the controversial victory of Ahmadinezhad. He was declared winner with a reported 63 per cent of the votes. Opposition Green candidate Mirhoseyn Musavi and reformist Mehdi Karrubi disputed the figure and put Ahmadinezhad's victory down to vote-rigging and "election engineering". Both are now under house arrest.

Since the last poll, reformist parties in Iran have been banned and many reformist figures imprisoned. A number of pro-reform groups have threatened to boycott the forthcoming election, just as they did with the 2012 parliamentary poll.

The 2013 election looked set to be dominated by the conservatives or "Principle-ists". The term Principle-ist ("Usul-garayan") has been in vogue in Iran's political and media narrative since the 2005 presidential election, which saw Ahmadinezhad defeat Hashemi-Rafsanjani in the second round of the poll. It is used to describe a number of groups or individuals who are united by absolute loyalty to the Supreme Leader. Back in 2005, Ahmadinezhad was considered to fall under this broad umbrella. But since then, a rift has developed between Iran's president and the Supreme Leader, so that now most Principle-ists can be characterized by their dislike of Ahmadinezhad and his protege Esfandiyar (alternative spelling Esfandiar) Rahim-Masha'i and their nationalist "Iranian School".

Jeffrey Coonjohn, Senior Policy Advisor (Anti-Corruption) www.jjcoonjohn.com / [email protected] BBCM Iran Presidential Election Guide 2013 "The year of the Political Epic"

Ahmadinezhad's fate appears to follow a familiar pattern: virtually all Iranian presidents have eventually fallen out with the Supreme Leader.

But the Principle-ists did not agree on who will be their standard bearer. They now fear that their core vote may be split. And in what many see as an unexpected turn of events, the veteran Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani threw his hat into the ring in the final hours of candidates' registration. Previously, he had made it clear that he would not stand without a green light from Khamene'i. It appears that the Supreme Leader has decided that it would be politically expedient to allow Rafsanjani to stand.

Surprises

Iranian presidential elections have a habit of surprising political observers. Back in 1997, the reformist defeated the traditional conservative Ali Akbar Nateq-Nuri, the establishment's favoured candidate, in a landslide. After Khatami's two terms, it was the turn of Ahmadinezhad, who many had dismissed as a lightweight, to defeat Rafsanjani in the 2005 poll.

And 2009 saw the incumbent's victory lead to months of unrest in the country. These protests are referred to by Iran's conservative media and leaders as the "sedition". Musavi, Karrubi, Khatami - and sometimes Rafsanjani - are referred to as the leaders of the "sedition".

With this in mind, it is very difficult to predict the outcome of the poll. But Rafsanjani's eventual last-minute decision to stand, as well as the unpredictability of Ahmadinezhad and Masha'i, means that the Principle- ists will not have the easy ride that they assumed.

Overall, the country's current political line-up can be split into three broad groups:

- The conservatives or the so-called Principle-ist supporters of Supreme Leader Seyyed Ali Khamene'i; - the government camp around President Mahmud Ahmadinezhad; and - the reformists.

The period 2009-2013 has also seen a crackdown on media activities by the Iranian establishment. Journalists have been arrested and many

Jeffrey Coonjohn, Senior Policy Advisor (Anti-Corruption) www.jjcoonjohn.com / [email protected] BBCM Iran Presidential Election Guide 2013 "The year of the Political Epic" pro-reform publications have been banned. A number of hardline newspapers and websites have started a smear campaign against the foreign media, especially BBC Persian.

Iran has also tried to cut access to a number of "illegal" virtual private networks (VPNs). VPNs are widely used in the Islamic Republic to access websites that are filtered by the authorities. Many Iranian users have recently complained about the slowing of Internet speed and problems with connectivity. This indicates possible concern among the ruling establishment that there could be an outbreak of demonstrations after the poll, similar to those that followed the 2009 election.

Local council elections and Assembly of Experts by-elections are also scheduled to take place on 14 June. This is the first time that these elections will be held alongside the presidential election, and it is likely that the Iranian authorities have decided to hold all three elections on the same day in order to get a high turnout at the polls.

Turnout and legitimacy

One vital aspect of Iran's strategic narrative is that the ruling Islamic order is based on popular will. According to this narrative, all posts, including those of the Supreme Leader, the president and parliament are elected, directly or indirectly, by popular vote, as allowed by Islamic canons and within the rule of law.

This demonstration of public trust in the establishment is of utmost importance to the authorities, hence Iran has held a major election in practically every year since the 1979 Islamic revolution. The authorities claim that the apparently high voter turnout testifies to the popularity of the Islamic Republic and gives legitimacy to the system.

Accurate participation figures are not available. According to the Interior Ministry, the rate of voter participation in previous presidential elections were: 2009, 85 per cent; 2005 62.8, per cent); 2001, 67.77 per cent.

Jeffrey Coonjohn, Senior Policy Advisor (Anti-Corruption) www.jjcoonjohn.com / [email protected] BBCM Iran Presidential Election Guide 2013 "The year of the Political Epic"

2. The State

Supreme Leader - Ayatollah Ali Khamene'i

Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamene'i is Iran's overall leader and highest authority. He succeeded Ayatollah Khomeyni in 1989 after eight years as president. As Vali-ye Faqih (supreme jurisconsult), his authority overrides all others. He is responsible for appointing the head of Iran's judiciary, six of the 12 Guardian Council members (who are responsible for the vetting of election candidates), the commanders of the armed forces, Friday prayer leaders across the country, and the heads of Iran's state TV and radio companies. He also confirms the president's election.

The Iranian constitution specifies that the Supreme Leader must possess a number of qualities including scholarship, justice, piety, political and social perspicacity, prudence, courage and administrative capabilities.

President - Mahmud Ahmadinezhad

Mahmud Ahmadinezhad has been since 2005. He was previously a regional governor and mayor of Tehran. He rose through the ranks of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) during the Iran- war and has a PhD in engineering and planning. His re- election as president in June 2009 was disputed by rival candidates and sparked a series of protests against the declared outcome of the poll.

Iran's constitution states that the president is the second-highest official in the country after the Supreme Leader. He is responsible for implementing the constitution. The president is elected for a four-year term and can only be re-elected once.

Guardian Council

The Guardian Council is in charge of overseeing legislation passed by the Majlis (parliament), and ensuring that it complies with Islamic laws and the constitution. The council can also bar candidates from standing in elections to parliament, the presidency and the Assembly of Experts. It is comprised of six theologians appointed by the Supreme Leader,

Jeffrey Coonjohn, Senior Policy Advisor (Anti-Corruption) www.jjcoonjohn.com / [email protected] BBCM Iran Presidential Election Guide 2013 "The year of the Political Epic" and six lay Muslim jurists approved by the Majlis. The current secretary of the Council is the elderly hardliner Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati.

Majlis

The Majlis, or Islamic Consultative Assembly, is the Iranian parliament. It is comprised of 290 members who are elected by popular vote every four years. Its powers include passing legislation, summoning and impeaching ministers as well as the president, ratifying international treaties and approving the national budget. These powers are verified by the Guardian Council, which must ensure all laws passed by the Majlis conform to Islamic law and the Iranian constitution. A number of seats in the Majlis are reserved for non-Muslims, one each for Zoroastrians, Jews, Assyrians and Chaldean Christians, plus a further two seats for Armenian Christians. The current speaker of the Majlis is Ali Larijani.

Expediency Council

The Expediency Council was set up in September 1988 in accordance with a decree by Ayatollah Khomeyni to rule on disputes between the Majlis and the Guardian Council. It also acts as an advisory body for the Supreme Leader. The Council is now chaired by Rafsanjani and its current secretary is former IRGC commander and presidential candidate Mohsen Reza'i.

Assembly of Experts

The Assembly of Experts was established in 1982 to ensure the continuation of the Islamic leadership of Iranian society under Iran's first Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khomeyni. It is responsible for appointing and removing the Supreme Leader, and overseeing his performance. It is comprised entirely of clerics who have to be vetted by the Guardian Council before they can be elected to it. It is currently led by Ayatollah Mohammad Reza Mahdavi-Kani, a long-established traditional conservative figure with a strong following in the "United Principle-ists Front", the largest conservative faction in the Majlis.

Jeffrey Coonjohn, Senior Policy Advisor (Anti-Corruption) www.jjcoonjohn.com / [email protected] BBCM Iran Presidential Election Guide 2013 "The year of the Political Epic"

3. Election law

The law in general outlines the various regulations surrounding the elections. It includes chapters on how elections should take place, the requirements of presidential candidates, eligibility of candidates, election campaigns, the particulars of electors, and complaints and investigations procedures.

But amendments to the presidential election law earlier this year are indicative of the political manoeuvrings in Iran. In the past, the Interior Ministry had overall responsibility for overseeing and enforcing all aspects of the law, but an amendment recently adopted by MPs sets up a separate Central Electoral Executive Board (CEB), thereby watering down the dominant role of the Interior Ministry in supervising the elections. The conservative MPs dominating the Majlis are fierce critics of Ahmadinezhad, whereas the Ministry is controlled by Ahmadinezhad loyalists.

Amendments - limiting Ahmadinezhad's influence?

The CEB for the 2013 presidential and local council elections will now be comprised of "four legal and seven trusted individuals". The four "legal individuals" will be Interior Minister Mostafa Mohammad-Najjar, Intelligence Minister , Prosecutor-General Gholamhoseyn Mohseni-Ezhe'i or his representative, and one member of the Majlis presidium. The seven "trusted individuals" will be selected from 30 "religious, political, social and cultural" individuals approved by the Guardian Council.

In effect, the CEB will consist of individuals who are pro-Khamene'i. This might be an attempt on the part of Iran's Supreme Leader and the Majlis to try to curb Ahmadinezhad's influence over the Interior Ministry, and to stop him from promoting his preferred candidate, Rahim-Masha'i.

The CEB was supposed to be set up five months before the end of the president's tenure. By late April, the government had failed to establish this body, which drew criticism from the Majlis. Ahmadinezhad's failure to nominate individuals for the CEB in time might have been deliberate, as a kind of rebellion against the board's composition, and a snub aimed at Khamene'i.

Jeffrey Coonjohn, Senior Policy Advisor (Anti-Corruption) www.jjcoonjohn.com / [email protected] BBCM Iran Presidential Election Guide 2013 "The year of the Political Epic"

The CEB was eventually finalized on 2 May. Seyyed Sowlat Mortazavi, head of Iran's Elections Committee and deputy interior minister for political affairs, was appointed Secretary of the CEB on 4 May.

Another amendment stipulates that the presidential election, by- elections for the Assembly of Experts, and local council elections can all take place on the same day. This is the first time in Iran's history that all of these elections have been held on the same day.

The creation of an online voting system is also a new suggestion for the 2013 elections. However, it must first be approved by the Guardian Council.

Other amendments include penalties for election fraud, provisions for vetting candidates, and requirements for election campaigning.

Electors must have Iranian nationality, be 18 years of age, and be "sound of mind".

Elections in Iran are free to some extent as electors have some choice in the candidates they vote for. Since the disputed 2009 presidential election, however, reformist parties have been banned and their leaders have been imprisoned.

Political parties do not field candidates in elections. In order to be successfully nominated in the presidential race, candidates must fit the criteria outlined in Iran's election law. They must be, inter alia, of Iranian origin and hold Iranian nationality; be of "good repute"; be "pious" and "believe in the Islamic Republic and the official religion of the state".

Ayatollah Khomeyni initially opposed the participation of clerics in presidential elections, until the third presidential election in 1981 when Khamene'i was elected.

Khamene'i recently outlined the characteristics expected of the next Iranian president in a speech broadcast by state TV. He said the president should be "tenacious and resistant to pressures from enemies", adding: "They should be someone who believes in God, the revolution, the constitution and the Iranian people."

Jeffrey Coonjohn, Senior Policy Advisor (Anti-Corruption) www.jjcoonjohn.com / [email protected] BBCM Iran Presidential Election Guide 2013 "The year of the Political Epic"

Campaigning

The law stipulates that campaigning can start eight days prior to an election and must discontinue 24 hours before polling begins. In practice, this is and has been ignored. The various factions accuse each other, with some justification, of engaging in electioneering months before balloting is due to take place.

The law forbids the use of placards, tracts, wall writing and propaganda - another stipulation that has been regularly ignored. Moreover, candidates are not supposed to make speeches outside an assembly hall and engage in question and answer sessions.

Iranian state radio and TV allow for election broadcasts (see "Media Policy" section).

Iran's state media have launched an online portal in Persian for uploading election campaign disputes called the Specialized Portal of Dispute and Discourse.

Vetting

The vetting procedure is the most controversial part of the election law. After candidates have registered with the Ministry of the Interior, they are vetted by the Election Administrative Board. This is done on the basis of reports provided by four state organizations: the Law Enforcement Force (combined police force), the Judiciary, the State Registration Organization and the Intelligence Ministry. Disqualified candidates may appeal, in the first instance to the Election Supervisory Board, whose decision is again open to appeal.

The final stage is the most rigorous one. Here, the Guardian Council, which supervises the elections, actively vets the candidates so that, in the words of one leading jurist, it "prevents corruption and deviation". Critics see this as a political disqualification stage, aimed at allowing only loyalists to enter the race. There is an appeals procedure, but it is seen as ineffective.

In previous elections, many liberals and reformists have been disqualified at this stage.

Jeffrey Coonjohn, Senior Policy Advisor (Anti-Corruption) www.jjcoonjohn.com / [email protected] BBCM Iran Presidential Election Guide 2013 "The year of the Political Epic"

In March, prominent Tehran MP Ali Motahhari suggested that the Guardian Council was imposing "unnecessary and extreme restrictions" in studying the qualifications of presidential candidates, as part of the new amendments for the 2013 election. This could provide hardliners with the opportunity, as before, of disallowing reformist candidates from standing.

An indication of the difficulties reformists and Ahmadinezhad loyalists will face in passing the vetting stage came as recently as 11 May. Iranians news agencies reported that reformist candidates - such as Hashemi-Rafsanjani's son Mohsen, pro-reform journalist Fatemeh Rake'i, and well known reformist figure Ma'sumeh Ebtekar - have been barred from running in the 14 June local council elections. Other figures said to be barred from standing are Abbas Amirifar, adviser to Ahmadinezhad; Bahman Sharifzadeh, a close associate to Rahim- Masha'i; and actress Afsaneh Bayegan. The vetting body is due to announce its decision on who can run in the local council elections on 18 May. (Local council elections are the only elections in Iran in which the Guardian Council does not vet the candidates, but they still go through an extensive vetting process - see above.)

4. Media Policy

State TV

In general, Iran's state media aim to present a positive and optimistic mood in the run-up to an election, in a bid to attract voters to the polls.

The election law forbids state media from broadcasting material in favour of or against particular candidates. They are allowed to broadcast general educational programmes about the election.

Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) is the official broadcaster of programmes and announcements relating to the elections. IRIB's director Ezzatollah Zarghami has announced that the broadcaster will allocate 10 hours of airtime on TV and radio to each presidential candidate ahead of the election.

IRIB broadcasts special programmes in the run-up to presidential elections. State-run channel IRTV1 is to air two 30-minute campaign

Jeffrey Coonjohn, Senior Policy Advisor (Anti-Corruption) www.jjcoonjohn.com / [email protected] BBCM Iran Presidential Election Guide 2013 "The year of the Political Epic" documentaries on the final candidates. The channel will also air a 30- minute programme in which each candidate introduces themselves to the audience.

IRTV2 and the Islamic Republic News Network (IRINN) are planning to broadcast 45-minute long interviews with the final candidates.

A talk show called "Yesterday, today, tomorrow", on Channel 3 (IRTV3), will monitor political developments in the country ahead of the election. Channel 3 also plans to air a 60-minute programme in which young people can put questions to the candidates.

State-run Channel 4 (IRTV4) will air more "specialized" programmes and each candidate will answer questions raised by a panel comprising of three political, social and economic experts. Other election programmes include "Bright future", which has been produced by the Tehran channel's political desk, and combines light-hearted comedy and interviews with political experts in relation to the election.

The Jam-e Jam TV channel, which broadcasts programmes for Iranian expatriates, will air a 60-minute question and answer programme with the final candidates. The channel also plans to broadcast campaign documentaries about each candidate.

In addition, IRIB has launched a website called "Erade-ye Melli" (National Will), which will cover news and subjects relating to the election.

Provincial TV

Furthermore, a number of IRIB's provincial TV stations have also begun airing special election programmes ahead of the poll. The programmes cover the presidential election as well as various local issues.

For example, Kerman Province TV broadcasts special news discussion programmes on Saturdays, Mondays and Wednesdays, where experts are invited to discuss various social and economic issues. In another live late evening show, artists and social figures are invited to discuss various health, social and cultural issues.

Jeffrey Coonjohn, Senior Policy Advisor (Anti-Corruption) www.jjcoonjohn.com / [email protected] BBCM Iran Presidential Election Guide 2013 "The year of the Political Epic"

Eshraq TV in Zanjan Province has a programme entitled Birliq (Azeri: Unity). The programme is broadcast twice a week, Tuesdays and Sundays, in Azeri and Persian. Another edition of the programme is broadcast only in the local Azeri language. Birliq focuses on the role of the Guardian Council during the election process. It also broadcasts interviews with people, in Azeri or in Persian, about the importance of elections.

Fars Province TV has launched a 30-minute programme called "Entekhab" - Election. This is a general information programme about the elections; it educates the electorate about the election law, the voting procedures and the benefits of public participation. Those interviewed urge their compatriots to take part in the poll.

Similar programmes have been aired by Tabarestan TV (Mazandaran Province), Hamoon TV (Sistan-Baluchestan Province), and Esfahan TV.

Curbs on media

After the 2009 presidential elections, many pro-reform newspapers were shut down and over a hundred journalists and bloggers detained. There is also a lack of privately-owned and independent media sources in Iran. The Iranian authorities continue to believe there are forces inside and outside the country threatening its existence, and that a kind of "soft war" is being played out through the media. They are trying to enforce strict controls on media activity. Former President Khatami has criticized the "suffocating security atmosphere" in the country.

There is concern among state officials that a mood of dissent within society could be created by some political groups. In February, Minister of Culture and Islamic Guidance Seyyed Mohammad Hoseyni called on the media to be careful in their reporting and warned them against "contaminating the moods in society". This can be read as an allusion to the pro-reform "sedition" protests that broke out after the disputed 2009 election.

The term sedition is used by the country's establishment to refer to the protests after the disputed 2009 presidential poll which was won by the

Jeffrey Coonjohn, Senior Policy Advisor (Anti-Corruption) www.jjcoonjohn.com / [email protected] BBCM Iran Presidential Election Guide 2013 "The year of the Political Epic" incumbent Mahmud Ahmadinezhad. The two losing pro-reform, opposition candidates - Mehdi Karrubi and Mirhoseyn Musavi - are currently under house arrest.

Moreover, earlier this year, Iran cut access to a number of "illegal" virtual private networks (VPNs). VPNs are widely used in the Islamic Republic to access websites that are "filtered" by the authorities.

BBC Persian.com may be virtually impossible to access due to the throttling of web speeds. BBC Persian is already experiencing the deliberate jamming of its radio and satellite TV services. Since the start of this year, Iranian authorities have also imposed curbs on Iranian journalists. Furthermore, a number of hardline newspapers and websites have started a smear campaign against the foreign media, especially BBC Persian.

In January, seven journalists from the country's reformist papers were arrested for being too close to the "sedition ".

In February, the Iranian Intelligence Ministry arrested several journalists on the charge of "relations with the BBC".

Some ultra-conservative papers, such as Vatan-e Emruz, also embarked on a smear campaign against BBC Persian and its staff, accusing them of sexual misconduct and "espionage".

The Iranian establishment is clearly concerned to avoid a repeat of the aftermath of the 2009 presidential election, as well as the broadcasting and publishing of material that is against the regime, and is taking a number of measures to control content in the media and on the internet. It is unclear how far the authorities will extend their power in regard to this. However, there are increasing concerns amongst the populace about the government's restrictions on the media, which may affect the way in which people vote.

Live election debates?

In December 2012 the Majlis voted against the televised broadcast of live debates between candidates. MP Kazem Jalali said at the time that

Jeffrey Coonjohn, Senior Policy Advisor (Anti-Corruption) www.jjcoonjohn.com / [email protected] BBCM Iran Presidential Election Guide 2013 "The year of the Political Epic" the bill had been passed following a "sociological study" of what happened following the 2009 presidential election.

Back in 2009, Iranian state TV broadcast live face-to-face debates between the candidates, most notably that between the incumbent president, Mahmud Ahmadinezhad, and former Prime Minister Mirhoseyn Musavi. Ahmadinezhad asked Musavi "Shall I tell? Shall I tell?" ("Begam? Begam?" in Farsi), threatening to reveal things about Musavi's wife. The "Begam, begam" episode quickly became the subject of online ridicule, and the president is referred to as "Dr Begam" in Tehran streets. Many Iranians believe that the president was the loser of that infamous encounter, which acted as a catalyst for the ensuing post-election street demonstrations.

But recent Iranian media reports suggest that live televised debates between election candidates might in fact be broadcast under strict conditions.

IRIB has announced that one-to-one debates will be aired if the final number of candidates is less than five. If the number exceeds that, group debates with a moderator will be broadcast.

Ahmadinezhad "electioneering" ignored

In recent weeks, Ahmadinezhad has been visiting a number of provinces, and has been accompanied by a group of loyal MPs, as well as his preferred candidate for the election, Rahim-Masha'i. State media have traditionally covered these tours. The president's critics warned Ahmadinezhad that undertaking these tours just two months before the poll could be seen as "electioneering" for Rahim-Masha'i. However, the president ignored these warnings, and as a consequence seemed to lose support from the state broadcaster. IRIB's coverage of Ahmadinezhad's provincial visits has been scant and it has portrayed a rather negative image.

On 18 April, televised news bulletins showed what appeared to be an almost empty Azadi Stadium in Tehran on the occasion of a government-sponsored gathering. Iranian news agencies reported that around 40,000 people attended the meeting, but the TV channels' coverage gave the impression that the number was much smaller.

Jeffrey Coonjohn, Senior Policy Advisor (Anti-Corruption) www.jjcoonjohn.com / [email protected] BBCM Iran Presidential Election Guide 2013 "The year of the Political Epic"

This, as well as IRIB's coverage of Ahmadinezhad's provincial visits, led to a media spat between IRIB and the pro-Ahmadinezhad Islamic Republic News Agency. It criticized IRIB for not presenting the president's tours in a more positive light.

5. Presidency - a poisoned chalice?

The tenures of most Iranian presidents since the revolution have been characterized by their eventual falling out with the establishment in general and the Supreme Leader in particular. The only president who did not fall out with the leadership was Mohammad Ali Raja'i. He was assassinated in 1981 by the Mojahedin-e Khalq Organization (MKO).

Bani-Sadr

The first Iranian president to be elected after the 1979 revolution was Abolhasan Bani-Sadr, who was sworn in on 22 July 1980 for a four-year term. In June 1981, less than a year into his presidency, he was impeached by the Majlis on the grounds that he was politically incompetent. An arrest warrant for him was then issued. Days later, Ayatollah Khomeyni officially dismissed him as president of Iran, after which he sought political asylum in France.

Following Bani-Sadr's dismissal, the then Prime Minister Raja'i took over as president in August 1981. On 30 August 1981 during a meeting in the office of Mohammad Javad Bahonar, who had succeeded Raja'i as prime minister, he was assassinated in a bomb attack. He had served for 28 days as president.

After Raja'i's death, Iran's current leader Khamene'i was selected by Khomeyni to fill the vacant presidency. In February 1981, Khamene'i was elected president of Iran and sworn in during October of that year. In August 1985 Khamene'i was re-elected for a second term. During his presidency, he faced dissent from his sister and brother-in-law, and in 1985 he escaped an assassination attempt. Following the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khomeyni in June 1989, Khamene'i was elected by the Assembly of Experts to take over as Iran's Supreme Leader.

Jeffrey Coonjohn, Senior Policy Advisor (Anti-Corruption) www.jjcoonjohn.com / [email protected] BBCM Iran Presidential Election Guide 2013 "The year of the Political Epic"

Hashemi-Rafsanjani

When Khamene'i's second term as president came to an end, Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani succeeded him as president on 29 August 1989. Like Khamene'i, Rafsanjani was also the target of an assassination attempt. He was re-elected for a second term in June 1993. However, the low turnout in the polls (56 per cent) and the decline in support for Rafsanjani since 1989 were indications that conservative and liberal Iranians alike were becoming increasingly dissatisfied with his style of government.

Rafsanjani stood for the presidency again in 2005. That election went to a second round and saw Ahmadinezhad victorious.

After the 2009 poll that Rafsanjani's differences with the hardline establishment and Khamene'i became all too apparent. While Khamene'i gave his backing to Ahmadinezhad and described pro-reform demonstrators as "seditionists", Rafsanjani rejected the crackdown on the protests.

Khatami

In 1997 Mohammad Khatami won a landslide victory in the presidential election after promising social, political and economic reforms. He was re-elected for a second term in August 2001. He soon fell out of favour with clerics who opposed his attempt to implement "Islamic democracy". He attempted to pass a number of reforms aimed at limiting the powers of the Guardian Council. In 2003 the Majlis approved a bill giving Khatami greater authority over his conservative rivals, but it was rejected by the Guardian Council. In the same year, 193 members of the Majlis signed an open letter saying the reforms Khatami had promised had not been delivered and the country was in a critical state. A few months later, Iranian students protested in Tehran against Khatami's government.

Khatami is now often referred to by Khamene'i loyalists as one of the leaders of the "sedition".

Jeffrey Coonjohn, Senior Policy Advisor (Anti-Corruption) www.jjcoonjohn.com / [email protected] BBCM Iran Presidential Election Guide 2013 "The year of the Political Epic"

Ahmadinezhad

Ahmadinezhad was sworn in on 6 August 2005, and subsequently re- elected in the disputed June 2009 presidential election. During his second term as president, Iranian media has suggested a growing rift between Ahmadinezhad and the Supreme Leader, Khamene'i.

In early July 2009 state-run media reported that Khamene'i had ordered Ahmadinezhad to dismiss Rahim-Masha'i as first vice-president. Many MPs were opposed to Rahim-Masha'i's appointment as first vice- president. He had made controversial remarks in 2008, saying that Iran was a "friend" of the people of the USA and Israel, and that Americans were among the "superior people of the world". Despite this, Ahmadinezhad defended Rahim-Masha'i's role as first vice-president. Following increasing pressure from the Supreme Leader and the Majlis, Rahim-Masha'i resigned in late July 2009. In a defiant move, Ahmadinezhad subsequently appointed him as adviser and head of the president's office.

Principle-ist supporters of Khamene'i now refer to Masha'i as the leader of the "", because according to them, he and Ahmadinezhad emphasize Iranian nationalism over "pure Islam".

In April 2011 Ahmadinezhad dismissed Heydar Moslehi as minister of intelligence, a move which was not supported by Khamene'i who subsequently reinstated him. Ahmadinezhad was so affronted that he refused to undertake his presidential duties for 11 days, a period the Iranian media have referred to as the "11-day huff". The rift between Ahmadinezhad and certain MPs widened as a result of this sequence of events, and some politicians questioned the president's allegiance to the velayat-e faqih (guardianship of the jurisconsult, the Supreme Leader).

In January 2012, the president's adviser for media affairs, Ali Akbar Javanfekr, was jailed for insulting the Supreme Leader. Ahmadinezhad had previously been very supportive of Javanfekr in response to the allegations made against him.

Jeffrey Coonjohn, Senior Policy Advisor (Anti-Corruption) www.jjcoonjohn.com / [email protected] BBCM Iran Presidential Election Guide 2013 "The year of the Political Epic"

Furthermore, clerics have been critical of Ahmadinezhad's behaviour in recent years, describing him as erratic.

As Ahmadinezhad's term comes to an end, he has started to make a bid for public sympathy. At recent appearances, he has used phrases such as "Some people tell me 'if you get too cocky, we will sort you out'." And "I have plans to solve economic problems; officials don't permit me to do so."

It can be seen that the tenures of most Iranian presidents have been marked by disagreements with the Supreme Leader, Guardian Council, Assembly of Experts or Majlis. Apart from the usual machinations which characterize Iranian politics, this trend might be explained with reference to the Iranian constitution. The constitution was designed on the basis of the separation of powers and shared responsibilities, in order to prevent "despotism".

However, the fact that there are different legislative bodies overseeing the implementation of the constitution, and various stages involved in passing legislation, seems to lead to differences in opinion among government officials. Furthermore, although the constitution states that the various legislative bodies operate independently of each other, in reality there are some members of one body who are also members of another, which creates a conflict of interest. For example, Mohammad Reza Bahonar is a member of the Majlis as well as the Expediency Council. Gholam'ali Haddad-Adel, another presidential hopeful, was a member of the Expediency Council, Speaker of the Majlis and adviser to Khamene'i all at the same time, while Ali Larijani is Speaker of the Majlis and a member of the Expediency Council.

Of course, sitting above all these bodies is the Supreme Leader, who in practice has the final say in anything significant in Iranian politics.

6. The candidates

The registration of candidates ended on 11 May, with several dozen Principle-ists registering. This could either indicate chaos and rivalry among their ranks or be seen as an effort to convey an image of political

Jeffrey Coonjohn, Senior Policy Advisor (Anti-Corruption) www.jjcoonjohn.com / [email protected] BBCM Iran Presidential Election Guide 2013 "The year of the Political Epic" choice for the electorate and to protect the final candidate from a long process of attacks.

As in previous elections, there will now be a process of horse trading, in which a number of candidates will withdraw in favour of others. This is while the vetting process is under way. Some 680 people have registered, but in the end, half a dozen or so will qualify and be allowed to stand.

Rise of the Principle-ists

The term Principle-ist ("Usul-garayan") has been in vogue in Iran's political and media narrative since the 2005 presidential election, which saw Ahmadinezhad defeat Hashemi-Rafsanjani in the second round of the poll. It is used to describe a number of groups or individuals who fall under the conservative umbrella and who are united by absolute loyalty to the supreme leader. Moreover, most of them can be characterized by their dislike of Ahmadinezhad and his protege Esfandiyar Rahim- Masha'i and their nationalist "Iranian School".

The fluid nature of Iranian politics means that it is difficult to differentiate categorically between each Principle-ist trend or group. Temporary alliances are formed and any particular individual may be influential or have the support of one or more conservative grouping. Nevertheless, a number of factions can be discerned.

"The 2+1 Coalition"

This coalition, or the Coalition of Progress ("E'telaf-e Pishraft") as it has begun to call itself on its Facebook page, consists of Khamene'i's adviser on international affairs, former Foreign Minister ; Tehran Mayor Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf; and the supreme leader's top adviser Gholam'ali Haddad-Adel (whose daughter is married to Khamene'i's son).

The coalition has announced that one of its members will definitely stand and the other two will, if the candidate wins, be part of his government. They have conducted various workshops which focus on potential individuals who could be part of the possible cabinet. Velayati

Jeffrey Coonjohn, Senior Policy Advisor (Anti-Corruption) www.jjcoonjohn.com / [email protected] BBCM Iran Presidential Election Guide 2013 "The year of the Political Epic" has said: "The people will get to know about the possible cabinet before the elections."

But in the end, all three decided to stand.

"The Majority Principle-ists Coalition"

This group ("E'telaf-e Aksariyat-e Usul-garayan"), aka "the Quintet" or "3+2", announced its formation in April.

The group sought to nominate "one, maximum two" Principle-ist candidates to stand in the election. It is associated with the traditional conservative Militant Clergy Association. Its secretary is Mohammad Musapur, a former deputy interior minister.

It appears that this group is mostly made up of the Front of the Followers of the Imam's Line and the Leadership ("Jebh-e Peyrovan-e khat-e Emam va Rahbari"), an umbrella group of conservative forces whose secretary-general is the veteran politician Habibollah Asgaroladi.

The following five members of the Majority Coalition sought the presidency:

- Mostafa Purmohammadi, director of the State Inspectorate Organization. A conservative and fierce critic of Ahmadinezhad, he allegedly played a central role in the massacre of political prisoners and other dissidents in Evin prison in Tehran in 1988.

- Mohammad Reza Banohar, first deputy speaker of the Majlis (parliament).

- Mohammad Hasan Abutorabifard (a deputy speaker of the Majlis).

- Former Foreign Minister Manuchehr Mottaki. Ahmadinezhad dismissed Mottaki in December 2010, while the minister was on an official visit to Senegal.

- Yahya Al-e Eshaq, the head of the Tehran Chamber of Commerce, Industries and Mines and the former commerce minister in Hashemi- Rafsanjani's second government in the 1990s.

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Although Abutorabifard was named as the official Majority Coalition candidate, Mottaki decided to enter the race as well.

"The Steadfastness Front"

The far right, hardline faction known as the "Steadfastness Front" (Jebh- e Paydari) consists mostly of former supporters of Ahmadinezhad who turned against him and now operate under the spiritual leadership of Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi. They published their first statement in August 2011.

They aim to maintain the ideological purity of the regime and to eliminate "deviant tendencies", a reference to the "Iranian School" narrative of Ahmadinezhad and Rahim-Masha'i. This school of thought has been attacked by hardline and traditional conservatives as they see its attention to secular nationalist symbols as a dangerous revisionist trend.

This faction is characterized by its hardline political and religious posturing. It wants to completely eliminate the reformists, Hashemi- Rafsanjani and even moderate conservative figures such as former Majlis Speaker and 1997 defeated presidential candidate Ali Akbar Nateq-Nuri.

The Steadfastness Front has criticized the veteran conservative Asgaroladi of the Followers of Imam's Line faction for showing leniency towards defeated 2009 reformist candidates Mirhoseyn Musavi and Mehdi Karrubi. Both are now under house arrest.

The Front has named its candidate as Former Health Minister Kamran Baqeri-Lankarani, who fell out with Ahmadinezhad. He is now the spokesman of the Steadfastness Front.

But there are other candidates who appear to have the backing of the Front. They too have registered.

- Ali Reza Zakani. Zakani is a member of the Majlis. Zakani has said that if Sa'id Jalili enters the presidential race he will form a coalition with him.

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- Sa'id Jalili, the secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council. He is also well-known outside the country, because as Iran's chief nuclear negotiator, he has been sparring with Western and UN diplomats. Observers believe that Khamene'i's deep trust in Jalili could push him further up the country's political ladder.

Recently, a rift has emerged within the Steadfastness Front. A letter from the "Tehran wing" of the Front known as the "purification letter" (nameh-ye tathir), suggests a possible coalition between the Front and Ahmadinezhad's camp. At the same time, the "Qom wing" of the Front is opposed to any form of a deal with what they describe as the "deviant current". Details are sketchy.

But the Front's absolute loyalty to Khamene'i means that in the end, it will fall into line, and its supporters will vote for anyone who they perceive to have the approval of the leader.

Independent Principle-ists

There are many Principle-ists seeking office who do not belong to any particular coalition. A number of figures stand out among this group:

- Mohsen Reza'i. He is a former commander of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) and current secretary of the Expediency Council. This body was set up in September 1988 in accordance with a decree by Ayatollah Khomeyni to rule on disputes between the Majlis and the Guardian Council. It also acts as an advisory body for the supreme leader. This election is Reza'i's third attempt to become president. According to official figures, he came third in the 2009 poll, behind Ahmadinezhad and Musavi.

- Ali Fallahian. Hardline former intelligence minister, Fallahian is the subject of an international arrest warrant issued by a German court for his alleged role in the 1992 assassination of Kurdish dissidents at the Mykonos restaurant in Berlin. He is also on the Interpol wanted list in connection with the 1994 bombing of the AMIA Jewish community centre in Buenos Aires, Argentina, killing 85 people. He was also implicated in the 1998 killing of dissidents in Iran, known as the "chain murders".

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- Ramin Mehmanparast. The Foreign Ministry spokesman and former ambassador is standing as an independent candidate.

- Davud Ahmadinezhad. The older brother of Iran's current president announced he would run for the presidency as an independent candidate. He has publicly criticized the president, and has said he primarily supports the Supreme Leader.

Ahmadinezhad supporters

Since Khamene'i's seal of approval to Ahmadinezhad just after the 2009 disputed poll, the two have fallen out. Although there had been media murmurings about disagreements between the two over the role of Rahim-Masha'i not long after that election, Iranians generally trace back the serious falling out to April 2011. Ahmadinezhad had dismissed Heydar Moslehi as minister of intelligence, a move which was not supported by Khamene'i who subsequently reinstated him. Ahmadinezhad was so affronted that he refused to undertake his presidential duties for 11 days, a period the Iranian media refer to as the "11-day huff".

Since then, Ahmadinezhad's and Rahim-Masha'i's differences with the religious hard liners and Khamene'i loyalists have sharpened. They, in turn, have accused the pair of trying to implement the so-called "Putin- Medvedev" plan, which would see Rahim-Masha'i becoming president, paving the way for his mentor to return to office.

Ahmadinezhad's recent moves have been controversial, and some of them are aimed at promoting his aide's profile. The president has been praising Rahim-Masha'i during gatherings, describing him as the "Man of Spring". Upon return from his Egypt visit in February, Ahmadinezhad and Masha'i were greeted by dozens of supporters holding "Long Live Spring" posters. The phrase has now become Masha'i's election campaign slogan.

Rahim-Masha'i put himself forward as an election candidate on the final day of registration. He was accompanied by the president, which seems to have angered election officials who accuse Ahmadinezhad of violating election law for endorsing a particular candidate.

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The conservatives' hatred of Rahim-Masha'i means that he would have difficulty passing the extensive and controversial vetting process before being allowed to stand. Rahim-Masha'i has said that if he is disqualified he will obey Iran's election law.

If, as is likely, Rahim-Masha'i is eliminated at the vetting stage, it appears that the president has no other serious options. First vice- President withdrew his candidacy in favour of Rahim-Masha'i, and then Ali Akbar Javanfekr, media adviser to president, did the same. That leaves Ahmadinezhad with low-key Agriculture Minister Sadeq Khalilian who has not yet withdrawn from the race.

Minister of Roads and Urban Development and Minister of Foreign Affairs , who were both possible candidates from Ahmadinezhad's camp, did not in the end register.

Bid to attract reformists

It seems that the president is seeking the backing of reformist voters with his stance against the vetting process in general and his call for "free" presidential elections in particular.

In a major speech in January, Khamene'i castigated those who call for "free elections", saying such talk helps "the enemy's plots".

The term "free elections" has since become somewhat of a taboo for the conservative right-wing. Their supporters have lined up to condemn anyone calling for free and fair elections by referring to Khamene'i's speech and accusing detractors of helping "the enemy".

In an unlikely meeting of minds, the president as well as senior reformist figures such as Khatami have called for free elections.

But Ahmadinezhad will have difficulty in attracting reformists to his cause. They maintain that he owes his 2009 presidential election victory to vote-rigging and the "engineering" of elections. Reformists believe it was Musavi who won the 2009 election.

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Reformists

After the disputed 2009 presidential election, in which the incumbent Ahmadinezhad returned to office with a reported 63 per cent of the votes, many Iranians took to the streets. The reformists faced a major crackdown. Many of their prominent leaders were arrested and their newspapers and other media outlets shut down. The restrictions placed upon them led Khatami to say that Iran is going through "the autumn of political activity".

This general political climate led to a debate among the reformists. Should they continue mainstream political activity, such as taking part in parliamentary (Majlis), presidential or council elections? Or should they not take an active part in the polls and engage in more grass-roots and civil political action?

The preferred candidate of the reformists was Khatami, but he did not register for the election. This was despite the launch of an online campaign called the "Sun of the Morning Hope" by reformists keen to persuade him to stand. Khatami was recently quoted as saying: "contrary to what we believed, the ruling establishment... will not allow us to take part in the election with our maximum capacity."

In the final hour of registration on 11 May, Hashemi-Rafsanjani registered his candidacy. He had kept observers guessing about whether he would stand until the last minute. There is no doubt that his participation transforms Iran's election landscape, as he poses a challenge to the conservative Principle-ist candidates as well as to the pro-Ahmadinezhad hopefuls.

In his election campaign statement, Hashemi-Rafsanjani stressed a moderate political approach. He outlined his commitment to "coordination and holding constructive and transparent dialogue based on respect and dignity."

Hashemi-Rafsanjani's candidacy prompted the reformist Mohammad Shari'atmadari to pull out of the presidential race in favour of the former president. Rafsanjani is now viewed as a centrist-reformist who can attract a significant share of the vote.

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The more established reformist groups had appeared to have ruled out taking part in the poll. They had maintained that there could be no free and fair elections if their prominent leaders were not released. They also called for greater media freedom, general liberalization and the lifting of the ban on two major reformist political parties, the Islamic Iran Participation Front (the largest reformist group) and the Mojahedin of the Islamic Revolution.

The Participation Front had announced that it would not take part in the elections. But in a statement on 14 May, the Front welcomed Rafsanjani's candidacy.

The Mojahedin announced recently that there are "no signs of a free and democratic election taking place" because none of the reformists' demands have been met. It is not yet clear if they will endorse Rafsanjani.

But other less radical reformists, such as the centrist Coordination Council of Reformist Front (CCRF), are making efforts at a comeback. They want reformists to reach consensus on a single candidate, and take part in the poll even if Khatami and Rafsanjani feel unable to stand. The following names are in the frame:

- . He was First Vice President under Khatami. He is currently a member of the Expediency Council.

- Hasan Rowhani (aka Ruhani). The former secretary of the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) became well-known in the West during the Khatami presidency, as he was Iran's chief nuclear negotiator.

- Mostafa Kavakabian. He is a former MP and the leader of the centrist Mardomsalari Democracy Party. Kavakabian is also editor-in-chief of the party's newspaper. That publication, also called "Mardomsalari", is known for not crossing red lines and has been published without interruption since 2002.

- Akbar A'lami. A'lami served on parliamentary committees and was a Majlis deputy for Tabriz under Khatami's presidency.

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A number of these candidates, such as Rowhani, had suggested that they would withdraw in favour of Khatami and/or Rafsanjani. It remains to be seen which, if any, will withdraw or pass the vetting stage.

7. Facts and Figures

- Iran's population: 75m (2011 survey). - Eligible voters: Around 49 million. The figure is politically sensitive because it determines the number of votes cast. - Minimum voting age: 18

- Director-general of the election office in the Ministry of the Interior: Hasan Ali Nuri - Secretary of Iran's Election Headquarters and Central Executive Board: Seyyed Sowlat Mortazavi. - 70,000 polling stations. Interior Minister Mostafa Mohammad Najjar announced that the number of polling stations in Iran has increased from 50,000 to 70,000 this year due to the fact that local council elections are being held on the same day.

- Number of candidates before vetting: 686; - Number of candidates after vetting: not yet available; - Per cent disqualified: not yet available; - Turnout in 2009: 39,165,191 = 85 per cent turnout, according to official figures; - Figures for 2009 poll, according to the Interior Ministry:

Mahmud Ahmadinezhad: 62.6 per cent; Mirhoseyn Musavi: 33.8 per cent; Mohsen Reza'i: 1.7 per cent; Mehdi Karrubi: 0.9 per cent.

Jeffrey Coonjohn, Senior Policy Advisor (Anti-Corruption) www.jjcoonjohn.com / [email protected] BBCM Iran Presidential Election Guide 2013 "The year of the Political Epic"

Election timetable

7-11 May: Registration of candidates; 24 May: List of qualified candidates announced following extensive vetting, campaigning begins; 14 June: Polling day, first round; 21 June: Second round of vote (if no candidate has a clear majority); 3 August: Supreme Leader ratifies the peoples' vote. New president takes the oath at the parliament, takes up office.

Jeffrey Coonjohn, Senior Policy Advisor (Anti-Corruption) www.jjcoonjohn.com / [email protected]