>>> Menas Iran Strategic Focus 02 /14 Politically independent monthly news and analysis of strategic developments in Iran
Slow, slow, quick quick slow: The path to a
· Volume 10 · Number· Volume 10 02 comprehensive deal 014 2 On 18 February the negotiating teams of Iran implementation of the interim deal began on 20 the future of the Arak heavy water reactor, the (AEOI) director Ali Akbar Salehi has already and the P5+1 (the United States, United King- January and has proceeded smoothly. Western enrichment site in Fordo, and the degree of Inter- stated that Tehran is willing to make adjust-
February dom, Russia, France, and China plus Germany) governments have introduced some sanctions national Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) supervi- ments to reduce concerns about its utilisation. started a new round of talks in Vienna to final- relief, and Iran is reconfiguring some of the com- sion over the programme. Evidently, compromises ise the agenda for negotiations towards a com- ponents of its nuclear programme, in particular are possible in all these areas. As Foreign Minister The Fordo site was originally designed to enrich prehensive nuclear deal. reducing the level of uranium enrichment to Mohammad Javad Zarif remarked, making sure uranium to 20 per cent and has been reconfig- below 5 per cent. that the nuclear programme remains peaceful is ured to reduce that to below 5 per cent. West- This round of negotiations is expected to take also an Iranian objective. ern governments insist that the site should be 6 to 12 months. Its objective is clear: based on Although the Iranian delegation believes that a shut down, however, and that scenario is unac- the interim deal signed on 24 November 2013, comprehensive agreement is achievable within Iran currently has 19,000 centrifuges, 9,000 of ceptable to Iran. the comprehensive agreement will address the agreed timeframe, all sides agree that the them spinning. The P5+1 want the number of technical and operational issues related to the negotiations – as well as the eventual imple- active centrifuges cut to 4,000, and technical The formula for a future IAEA inspection regime Iranian nuclear programme in exchange for a mentation of an agreement – will be a challeng- or inspection regimes will be needed to address will be established in the ratification and imple- gradual lifting of sanctions and respect for Iran’s ing path. Western concerns. mentation of the Additional Protocol by Iran. right to use peaceful nuclear technology. As it is clear that Tehran will ratify the protocol The main areas of contention over technical modi- As far as the Arak heavy water reactor is con- only once all sanctions have been lifted, the So far, the interaction has been positive. The fications will be the number of active centrifuges, cerned, Atomic Energy Organisation of Iran core challenge on the Western side will be >>>
Commentary 1 Month in review 2 Special feature 5 Oil & gas 6 Economy & business 9 Iran diary 12
> The path to a comprehensive deal > International affairs: Assets > Why Rohani needs economic > Oil sector news > Banking and finance > Zarif meets Ashton in Davos unfrozen successes > Gas sector news > Trade news > IAEA officials inspect Arak > Domestic issues: Questioning Zarif > Upstream project update > Economy in brief > Foreign ministers meet in Munich > Nuclear news: Modifying Arak > Zarif meets Kerry > Key risks > Rohani addresses anniversary crowds 2 www.menas.co.uk Iran Strategic Focus · February 2014 Commentary www.menas.co.uk [email protected] +44 Kingdom United 5HJ WC1B London Row31 Southampton Ltd Associates Menas © 2014 reserved rights All 1751-4614 ISSN Iran Strategic Focus >>> Production Editor: Production Charles Gurdon Director: Managing staff Associates Menas by Produced only subscription by Sold taken asaresult of usingthepublication. appearing inthispublication orfrom any actionordecision loss), however itarises,resulting from the useof any material loss of profits, loss of businessorany indirect or consequential damage orloss(including,withoutlimitation, financialloss, by lawMenasAssociates Ltd shallhave noliabilityfor any responsible for inaccuracies. To thefullextent permissible Menas Associates Ltd cannot ensure against orbeheld Disclaimer publisher. any other means,withouttheexpress writtenconsent of the recording, taping,orbyinformation storage orretrieval, orby graphic, electronic ormechanical,includingphotocopying, resold inwholeorany part,orusedinany form orany means publication may bereproduced, repackaged, redistributed, the nameof MenasAssociates Ltd andassuchnopartof this All information contained inthispublication iscopyrighted in Copyright ( 0 ) 20 3585 1401 3585 20
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Associates Associates 1 + Pictures Month in review mood changes.If key Iranian stakeholders come needs to produce tangible results before the is time:thegovernment of HassanRohani they willhave to compromise. Thecriticalissue At theendof theday, both sidesknow that Timing and pace to produce thebest possibledealfor Iran. instrument to putpressure onallsidesinorder wanted to. Heisplaying hisrole, whichisasan but essentially hecould have stopped themifhe ‘pessimistic’ abouttheoutcome of negotiations, It istruethat Khameneicontinues to assertheis for anuclearcompromise isreal. and Washington, butthecurrent spacecreated room for anormalisation of tiesbetween Tehran is conducive to aresolution. There may beno lah and thecommitment of Supreme Leader Ayatol- Furthermore, current Iranian domestic dynamics the nuclearissue. sides to lookfavourably at acompromise in common interest that willcompel thetwo of ability andcalm,especiallythecontainment Re-establishing adegree of regional sustain - Regional and domestic factors offer onlytemporary andlimitedsatisfaction. ing Tehran waivers onexisting sanctions.These Obama. For now, theUSadministration isoffer- very highpoliticalcapitalfrom President Barack sional laws,anddismantling themwillrequire Some key sanctionsare engrained incongres- ine sanctionsrelief. the abilityof theUSgovernment to offer genu- Al-Qa’ida–style terrorism, isanimportant Ali Khameneito thenegotiation process 2 Special feature
5 Oil & gas challenging. All inall,theoutlook remains positive but dynamics willshift. international andregional players, theregional extremism become thecommon enemy of key Washington are. IfAl-Qa’idastyle terrorism and by theregional developments asTehran and Essentially, Tel Aviv isasmuchchallenged mobilise supportfor anti-Iran initiatives. on thedefensive inrecent weeks andunableto Public Affairs Committee( lobby intheUnitedStates, theAmericanIsrael The goodnews for Iran isthat thepro-Israeli will beableto accommodate thisexpectation. although itisuncertainwhether Washington pace of both negotiations andimplementation, Tehran willtherefore attempt to speedupthe just theUSCongress butalsoregional events. more vulnerable to sabotage byspoilers–not years. Itknows that adrawn-out process will be it shouldbeimplemented withintwo to three can beachieved in2014,however, andthat Tehran believes that acomprehensive agreement nature of theIranian nuclearprogramme. complex technicalverifications of thepeaceful tions are liftedonlygradually andparallel to looking at alonger-termscenarioin whichsanc- administration facesinCongress, Washington is Considering theobstacles that theObama Another factor isthepaceof implementation. deteriorate. serious intheirengagement, thedynamicswill to believe that Western governments are not AIPAC ), hasbeen 6 Economy & business towards theIslamicRepublic. had a‘controlling andmeddlesome’attitude ment ifitcould, addingthat Washington States would overthrow theIranian govern- nei saidon8Februarythat theUnited And Supreme Leader Ayatollah AliKhame- with world powers inNovember. breaks theinterim nuclear dealreached States reserves amilitaryoption ifTehran State spending inresponse to USSecretary of 25 Januarythat Iran would boost military ways. MajlesSpeaker AliLarijanisaidon That effort sometimes seemsuphillboth Economic Forum. after arrivinginDavos to attend theWorld speaking inaSwisstelevision interview ship ifboth sidesmadeaneffort. Hewas United States could beturnedinto friend- ary that thedecades-oldenmitywith the President Overcoming animosity the disputeover Iran’s nuclearprogramme. to reach acomprehensive agreement to end February to discussthenext stage inefforts lines of theMunichSecurityConference on2 and Iran heldrare private talksontheside- The foreign ministers of theUnitedStates onMeeting final nuclearaccord Iran–US International affairs MONTH INREVIEW John Kerry’s remark that theUnited 9 Hassan Rohani saidon22Janu- Iran diary >>> 12 3 www.menas.co.uk Iran Strategic Focus · February 2014 Commentary for what itsaidwere commercial reasons. stopped flying to the country earlylast year that itwillresume flights to Iran inMarch. It Austrian Airlinesannouncedon16February Airlines aircraft>Austrian discovered inYemen wasthat of anIranian ary deniedreports that adecapitated body Affairs Deputy Foreign Minister for Arab–African Yemen mystery death Afkham on21January. to Foreign Ministry spokesperson Marziyeh and outposts inLebanon andYemen, according recent terrorist attacks onIranian diplomats against SaudiArabia over itsallegedrole in Iran nevertheless plansto filealegal complaint improve ties. in high-level diplomacywithRiyadhin order to president to that end.Key stakeholders want former Arabia, callingfor seriousefforts byboth sides desire to improve tieswithneighbouringSaudi director Atomic Energy Organisation of Iran (AEOI) ties?Closer Iran–Saudi tions withIslamicstates. which wasintended to promote Iranian rela- ing 26speakers, participated inthemeeting, Delegations from 47Islamicstates, includ- Hassan Rohani. Larijani asthenew headof IIPU;andPresident Fatih AzizAl-DinMansour,MajlesSpeaker Ali and current SudaneseParliamentary Speaker Key speakers includedtheformer headof IIPU meeting openedinTehran on18February. An IslamicInter-Parliamentary Union(IIPU) Union Inter-Parliamentary Hosting the Islamic countries Iran–Islamic Hossein Amir-Abdollahianon25Janu - Ali AkbarSalehireiterated Tehran’s Hashemi Rafsanjani to get involved 2 Special feature 5 Oil & gas mat isstill alive. diplomat. Heinsists that theabducteddiplo- tody byUAE securityforces. an Iranian national whowasbeingheldincus- lomat over thedeath of Seyyed AliHosseini, Tehran summonedaUnitedArab Emirates dip- Tehran summons UAE diplomat (AIPAC) backed away from pressing the AmericanIsrael Public Affairs Committee dez, thetop sponsorof new Iran sanctions, Following theleadof Senator Robert Menen- sanctions new for time Not Sanctions said waspressure from theUnitedStates. 24 hourslater inresponse to what themedia zerland. Hewithdrew theinvitation lessthan uary invited Iran to thetalksonSyria inSwit- UN Secretary General BanKi-moonon19Jan- UN rescinds invitation Ali Larijanion26JanuaryinTehran. following ameeting with Iranian counterpart National AssemblySpeaker Kang Chang-hee between thetwo countries,’ saidSouthKorean we want to start anew phaseinrelations South Korea tieshave a50-year history, but new chapter inTehran–Seoul relations. ‘Iran– South Korea hascalledfor theopeningof a KoreaIran–South diplomatic relations after afour-year freeze. that Iran andMorocco have agreed to resume Hossein Amir-Abdollahiansaidon5February Deputy Foreign Minister for Arab–African Affairs Iran–Morocco 6 Economy & business on Iran ifpassed. ary, Obamathreatened to veto fresh sanctions In hisState of theUnionaddress on28Janu- nuclear talksare underway. any legislative actiononIran sanctionswhile of Representatives signedaletter opposing And halftheDemocratic caucusintheHouse Committee, Democrat CarlLevin of Michigan. ter to thechairof theSenate ArmedServices to new economic sanctionsina26Januarylet- backed USPresident Barack Obamaopposition Former secretary of state HillaryClinton for sanctionsat thecurrent juncture. >>> read how openfor business[Iran is],’ Lew said. would beabigmistake for companies to over- caution’ whendealingwithIran. ‘Ithinkit January that companies must ‘proceed with US Treasury Secretary JackLew saidon23 Keeping cautious stein, andtheUnitedArab Emirates. Germany, Georgia, Afghanistan, Iran, Liechten- and individualswere operating inTurkey, Spain, against Iran. TheUSTreasury saidbusinesses and theMiddleEast for evading sanctions targeted ahost of businessesacross Europe The Obamaadministration on6Februaryhad violated sanctions. come down like a‘ton of bricks’onthosethat with Iran, saying that theUnitedStates would warned companies eyeing businessdeals On 11FebruaryPresident Barack Obama US will violators deal with 9 Iran diary 12 4 www.menas.co.uk Iran Strategic Focus · February 2014 Commentary Iran announced inearlyFebruarythat ithad Successful missiletest Domestic issues aircraft andcarspare parts. January Iran islikely to spendthefundson for International Affairs AliMajedisaidon20 on 1February.DeputyPetroleum Minister Deputy Foreign Minister AbbasAraqchi said as partof anucleardealwithworld powers, instalment of US$4.2billioninfrozen assets Iran hasreceived theUS$550millionfirst unfrozen Assets Safaei announcedon26January. government sanctions,NITC chief AliAkbar ( and theNational Iranian Tanker Company The suspended sanctions NITC NIOC, personal communication. to someInternet servicesandequipment for a general licenceto revoke sanctionsrelated of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) hasissued As well, theUSTreasury Department’s Office oil shipments, amongother measures. icals andprecious metals andoninsurance for move easedrestrictions ontrade inpetrochem- curb itsnuclearprogramme on20January.The after Tehran beganimplementing adealto suspended arange of sanctionsagainst Iran The European UnionandtheUnitedStates sanctions some ease US and EU NITC) have beenremoved from thelist of US National Iranian OilCompany ( 1 Month in review NIOC) media reported on8February. edly haltingascheduledmissileexercise, the criticised President HassanRohani for alleg- Revolution. Hard-line legislators, meanwhile, eve of the35thanniversary of theIslamic successfully tested two new missilesonthe house arrest willbeeasedinstages. on 2February.Itisspeculated that the current been transferred to hisown home,hissonsaid following the2009post-election unrest, has Karroubi, whohasbeenheldunderarrest Former Iranian presidential candidate Mehdi home transferred Karroubi Baluchistan, whichborders Pakistan. Iranian border guards intheprovince of Sistan- claimed responsibility for theabductionof five The extremist Sunnigroup Jaish-ul-Adlhas border guards abducts Jaish-ul-Adl gunmen shot at himlate on15February. Jahangiri emerged unscathed after unknown militants infront of hishouse. Abdolmajid escaped anassassination attempt byarmed town of BazmaninSistan-Baluchistan province The Friday prayer leaderof thesoutheastern Prayer leader escapes attack denied thereports. the Holocaust was‘tragically cruel.’ Zarif has ed inthemediathat Zarif hadcommented that tion ontheHolocaust andIsrael. Itwasreport- Minister MohammadJavad Zarif over hisposi- names to aletter askingto question Foreign Seventy Iranian legislators have puttheir Zarif Questioning 2 Special feature 5 Oil & gas Mehdi Karroubi Gachin uranium mine,aspartof ajoint IAEA inspectors on29Januaryvisitedthe Gachin visit inspectors IAEA P5+1 on24November. the Joint Planof Action that itsignedwith over itsnuclearprogramme inaccordance with that Iran hasbegunto implement measures Energy Agency (IAEA)confirmed on20January The UNnuclearwatchdog International Atomic deal of phase first Complying with Nuclear news corruption andembezzlement. the prosecutor. Zanjani hasbeenaccusedof Zanjani have beenconfiscated by order of the assets of detained Iranian tycoon Babak The Iranian judiciarysaidon30Januarythat Tycoon’s seized assets 6 Economy & business ambiguities over Tehran’s nuclearactivities. signed last November to remove outstanding statement that Iran andtheUNnuclearagency are based. seeing thedocuments onwhichthecharges gramme oncehadamilitary dimensionwithout long-standing allegations that itsnuclearpro- Iran saidon12February itwould not accept of secret weapons Demanding proof ready to cooperate further. open to theIAEA,implyingthat thecountry is Rohani saidthat Tehran willkeep itsdoors with limitedknowledge.’ On10February, speech on4February, callingthem‘people of theGeneva nucleardealwithP5+1ina President toOpen UN inspections the gradual roll-back of the nuclear programme. These technicalmeasures willbein linewith sures to beimplemented byIran by15May. February agreed to seven new practical mea- After two days of talks,Iran andtheIAEAon9 steps on agree IAEA Iran, nuclear energy programme. cerns of Persian Gulfstates abouttheIranian cooperation organisation to alleviate thecon- Salehi alsoproposed theformation of anuclear director cerns, Atomic Energy Organisation of Iran (AEOI) heavy water reactor to helpallay Western con- Iran isprepared to modifyitsplannedArak reactor? Arak Modifying said on 7 February. Ali AkbarSalehisaidon7February. Hassan Rohani criticisedopponents >>> 9 Iran diary 12 5 www.menas.co.uk Iran Strategic Focus · February 2014 Commentary Mehdi S countries inthefield of nuclearenergy. expansion of cooperation between thetwo tion inMoscow on14Februaryto discussthe Russian state-owned nuclearenergy corpora- held ameeting withthedeputydirector of the commitments emerging from thenegotiations. He alsoreaffirmed that Iran will stick to its about thetalksbutwasnot opposedto them. Ali Khameneisaidthat hewasnot optimistic On thesameday, Supreme Leader Ayatollah fresh round of talkswith theP5+1. arrived inViennaon17Februaryto holda by Foreign Minister MohammadJavad Zarif The Iranian teamof nuclearnegotiators led New begin talks Iranian ambassadorto RussiaMehdi Russia determined on Bushehr anai >>> www.menas.co.uk 1 Month in review Sanai Currency devaluation Economic deterioration Accidental escalation Military attack Sanctions RISK Domestic factionalism Key risks 2 Special feature – +/– +/– +/– – + 5 this level. market. Therate isexpected to remain at trading at alittlebelow IRR30,000 inthefree impact of thenuclear deal.Currently, thedollaris The Iranian market isstill enjoying thepositive private-sector investment. generating economic optimism that shouldleadto corruption, butthepotential for sanctionsrelief is a result of subsidyreforms, sanctions,and High inflation andunemployment continue as and theUnitedStates to below at present. the chanceof accidental escalation between Iran Remarks byofficials from both sidessuggest that unlikely to betranslated into action. Sporadic threats against Iran byIsraeli officials are Obama’s policyof negotiating with Iran. momentum whenDemocrats defended Barack shift away from sanctionsreceived fresh Committee (AIPAC) moderated theirtone, andthe Menendez andtheAmericanIsrael PublicAffairs was particularlynoticeable after Senator Robert against Iran appearto have lost steam. This Efforts byUSsenators to draft new sanctions Zanganeh are reported. Mohammad Reza Nematzadeh, andBijan impeach key ministers MohammadJavad Zarif, pressure ontheadministration. New efforts to in foreign policy, hardliner MPsare stepping up Still unhappy withHassanRohani’s success C omment Oil & gas 6 Economy & business > Other highlights of thereport are asfollows: ment andtechnicalassistance. the oilsector to foreign companies for invest- ment andPlanningOrganisation, andopenup the domestic currency, reinstate theManage- Bank of Iran, reform thetaxsystem, stabilise moves to give greater autonomy to theCentral economy.’ Onthat score, thereport identifies sures to reverse thedownward spiral of the that ‘thecabinet hasannouncedseveral mea- On apositive note, thereport acknowledges trends willrequire more time. economy. Afullreversal of negative economic fetched asvarious indicators point to ascarred highlighting that aswiftturnaround seemsfar- 1 percent economic growth for Iran in2014, That said,thelatest World Bankreport forecasts and foreign investor activityisclearlygoingup. deal andlimitedsanctionsrelief, asprivate-sector psychology engendered bytheinterim nuclear The economy hasbenefited extensively from the particular –onthebasisof economic performance. Iranian population ingeneral –andbytheelitesin new administration willalsobemeasured bythe Despite important foreign policysuccesses,the economic successes Why Rohani needs SPECIAL FEATURE through 2014. will remain below a desirable level of growth per cent in2012and 2013,respectively, and The Iranian economy shrank –3.0and–2.1 9 Iran diary >>> 12 6 www.menas.co.uk Iran Strategic Focus · February 2014 the Iranian economy willinvolve promoting Experts believe that injectingimpetus into Davos in Rohani the socio-economic impactcould besevere. to cashpayments hitthewrong income groups, of subsidyreforms crucial.Iftheplannedchanges intelligent implementation of thesecond phase able to even smallchangesinincome. Thismakes close to thepoverty lineare extremely vulner- The report alsostresses that thosewholive > > > > Commentary about 1percent. lowest FDIshare of GDPintheMENAregion, attractive to foreign investors. Iran hadthe exchange. sector activityisaccessto credit andforeign One of thehindrances to increased private- little spacefor theprivate sector to grow. privileges andare solarge that they have left and quasi-publicsectors enjoy numerous related to businessregulations. Thepublic is smallandsuffers various constraints public-sector jobsbecausetheprivate sector twice ashighfor men. At 21percent, unemployment for women is due to international sanctions. financial system remains constrained, partly The investment climate hasnot been Inflation andunemployment are still high. Oil exports have beenhalved andthe Educated jobseekers consistently seek >>> Menas Visit ourever changingwebsite. Now withbuilt-intranslation powered byGoogle 1 Associates: www.menas.co.uk Month in review > > > follows: Some highlights of Rohani’s remarks are as closest to emerging of alltheglobaleconomies. and assertedthat theIranian economy isthe nomic tiesbetween Iran andEuropean countries tation of theGeneva deal willnormaliseeco- for international investment. Hesaidimplemen- energy companies, that Iran isopenandsecure community, andespeciallythetop managers of Rohani took painsto reassure thebusiness companies before makingaspeech. met privately withtop executives of majoroil president to theforum in10years. Rohani January. Thiswasthefirst visit of anIranian of theWorld Economic Forum at Davos on24 Hassan Rohani took partintheannualmeeting It thusdidnot come asasurprisethat President investment. private-sector activityandattracting foreign constructive cooperation to promote global countries. years, andplansto re-open trade withother economic powers globallywithinthenext 30 world powers. after implementing theinterim dealwith The country isprepared to engagein It hasthepotential to beamongthe top 10 Iran isready to re-join theglobaleconomy 2 Special feature 5 Oil & gas economic andpoliticalapproach haschanged. His remarks were interpreted asasignthat Iran’s themselves inIranian politics. the way for hard-line elements to reassert Failure to deliver economically willonlypave achievements. be guaranteed withouttangibleeconomic strong government inIran. Thelatter cannot the successof thenucleartalksrequires a tual successof thenuclearnegotiations, and relief, sanctionsrelief depends ontheeven- Economic recovery dependsonsanctions tion willtherefore remain high. trends looklikely to become more positive, infla- significant deficit todo so.Whileemployment new investment. Itwillprobably have to runa involve providing incentives for jobcreation and priority iscontaining unemployment, whichwill The government hasannouncedthat itshighest unemployment andhighinflation. key issuesover thenext few years willremain tial. AstheWorld Bankreport underlines,the for thecountry to achieve itseconomic poten - Evidently, itwilltake alongandsustained effort next needed What’s gas resources. energy security, drawing onitsvast oiland 6 Economy & business OIL &GAS investors –buttheissuehasbeen sensitive. to bookreserves –akey metric for oilcompany panies to bookIranian oilreserves. Firmsseek Iran isalsolookingat ways to allow foreign com - sions easier.’ looking at a‘more practical formula to make deci- repay’ themadequately. Now, hesaid,Iran is companies hadcost overruns and‘we couldn’t Hosseini acknowledged that inthepast most oil projects. costs ifbudgets swell, as they often dofor big an oilfield.That makes itdifficult to recoup goes asafixed lump sum for helping to develop tracts allow oilcompanies to beallocated oilcar- their costs underbuybackcontracts. Suchcon- In thepast, many companies failedto cover allow bookingof reserves. ture thenew contracts to easecost recovery and companies onhow thecountry ought to struc - Iran isalsosolicitingtheviews of foreign oil Iraq’s terms. that they willbemuchmore attractive than 2014 inLondon,’ saidMehdiHosseini,noting unveiled inaninternational conference inJuly ‘Iran’s new generation of oilcontracts willbe to Petroleum Minister BijanNamdarZanganeh. international companies, according to anadviser ence inJulyto introduce new contract termsto The Ministry of Petroleum plansto holdaconfer- coming contracts oil New Oil sector news 9 Iran diary 12 > >>> 7 www.menas.co.uk Iran Strategic Focus · February 2014 be acceptable,’ another executive said. will behappy. Your return oninvestments will and we willcreate competitive termsandyou risks are minimal,andreserves are huge.Come ‘The messagewas,lookat us:ourgeological tions abouthow new contracts shallwork.’ technology. They are happy to have consulta - happy to seeus.They neednot onlymoney but a new model to work withinvestors andare oil executive. ‘They saidthey are working on ‘It wasanimpressive presentation,’ saidanother the meeting. Paolo Scaroni , CEOofENI, whowasat Italy’s to openupto international oilcompanies,’ said meeting today …isclearlyasignthat Iran wants ‘The factthat thepresident of Iran cameto the las they would like to seeIran adopt. two asked executives to submitcontract formu- tions underwhichthey would return to Iran. The group of Western oilmajorsto detail thecondi- Rohani andZanganeh alsoreportedly asked a Western investments andtechnology. told thecompanies Iran iskeen to openupto Reuters reported that Rohani andZanganeh a closed-doormeeting inDavos, Switzerland. leum projects to international corporations at presented theattractions of thecountry’s petro- Petroleum Minister BijanNamdarZanganeh On 22January, President HassanRohani and atDavos majors oil lures Iran try’s resources. law, whichbansforeign ownership of thecoun- Any contract hasto becompatible withIranian Commentary 1 Month in review the meeting wasattended byUSoilexecutives. companies were represented. Itwasnot clearif sia’s Along withENI,France’s Total, Britain’sBPRus- banking, telecommunications, andshipping. represented various industry sectors, including investment opportunities.The delegates companies including Total visitedIran to explore Earlier thismonth, a delegation of French De Margerie stated. strict onmakingsure theembargo isrespected,’ nents, andhewants to mention that hewillbe problem between thepresident andhisoppo- nuclear deal.‘Ifrankly thinkthat itisadomestic may beeasedafter theimplementation of a cials are dividedover anti-Iran sanctions,which De Margerie saidon12Februarythat USoffi- nies after sanctionsare lifted. investment inIran envisaged byFrench compa- Political Affairs Wendy Shermanregarding Obama andUSUndersecretary of State for down warningsfrom USPresident Barack Total CEOChristophe deMargerie hasplayed Total downplays US warning President Franç Lukoil andGazpromNeft , andseveral other 2 ois Hollande Special feature 5 Oil & gas of bricks’onentities seekingbusinessinIran. ton, Obamathreatened to ‘come down like aton with President François HollandeinWashing- Iranian opportunities.Inajoint press conference action against French companies lookingfor On 11February, Obamathreatened tough tion of itsrequirements. relies ontheIslamic Republic to satisfy apor- among Asia’smajorimportersof energy and sector wastargeted byEUsanctions.Indiais erage for oilimportsfrom Iran, whoseenergy April 2013after insurers refused to extend cov- HPCL stopped Iranian crudeoilpurchases in tion Ltd( refineries for Hindustan Petroleum Corpora- oil in2014–15,’ saidB.K.Namdeo,director of issue isresolved, only then willwe take Iranian insurance coverage are lifted.‘Iftheinsurance crude oilfrom Iran onlyifsanctionsontanker An Indianstate-run oilcompany says itwillbuy insurance eased bans Indian firm needs barrels to 2.78millionbarrels inJanuary. that total Iranian oilproduction rose by30,000 Geneva last November. TheIEAreport alsonoted increase inthewake of thenucleardealsignedin crude last month. That represents amarked countries received 1.32millionb/dof Iranian ( The Paris-based International Energy Agency January 2014. China, Japan,andIndia–rose by100,000b/din oil exports to itsthree majorAsianmarkets – A recent report hasrevealed that Iranian crude India Japan, to China, rise Exports ) said on 12 February that the importing IEA) saidon12Februarythat theimporting ). HPCL). 6 Economy & business project, andhe said we’re free to continue.’ of project Imeant. Itold him itwastheAnaran sible return, Alekperov said,‘Heasked what kind dar Zanganeh inDavos inJanuaryabout apos- When heasked Petroleum Minister BijanNam - company, on13February. perov, theheadof Russia’slargest private oil sanctions are lifted,according to Vaghit Alek - independently ifitisableto return to Iran after Lukoil isready to implement theAnaran project Anaran in Lukoil interested ing more than1,000depleted wells. on theinstitute to assesstheviabilityof reviv- visit to Tehran, agroup of IndonesianMPscalled east Asiancountry’s depleted oilwells. Duringa nesian officials over the revival of theSouth- Petroleum Industry ( Last month, theIranian Research Institute of ity meets onlytwo-thirds of itsdemand. Indonesia’s current 1millionb/drefining capac- president of theproducts willbeexported,’ saidKreasindo take anestimated three years to complete. ‘All The project isset to start next year andwill built at Banten oranother location inWest Java. finance 30percent of the refinery,be whichwill Nakhle Barani Pardis hasreportedly agreed to Kreasindo for the300,000b/dtreatment facility. firm was signedon11Februarybetween Iranian oil tion of arefinery inIndonesia.Theagreement signed aUS$3billionagreement for theconstruc- An Iranian andanIndonesiancompany have deal refinery sign Indonesia Iran, Nakhle Barani Pardis andIndonesia’sPT Rudy Radjab. 9 Iran diary RIPI) heldtalkswithIndo- >>> 12 8 www.menas.co.uk Iran Strategic Focus · February 2014 rivals to invest in the Iranian oilandgas sector if They are jostling for positionwith international funds may work infavour of Japanesefirms. Analysts saidthat Tokyo’s role insendingthefirst nuclear deal,sources told Reuters on5February. a payment for crudeimportsunderaninterim Japan becamethefirst of Iran’s oilbuyers to make Iran to payment makesJapan first CEO lead to theliftingof sanctionsoneday,’ saidENI both parties to reach an agreement that will Iran isto follow thesanctionsstrictly andpush best way for companies like usto gobackto willingness to return to theIranian market. ‘The Other European oilfirmshave also expressed Reuters reported on22January. with theNational Iranian OilCompany ( have visitedIran inrecent weeks to holdtalks Executives from France’s Total andItaly’s Saras ties Iran resume to eager EU firms I receive aninvitation, of course, Iwillgo,’ also like ameeting withtheIranian oilminister: ‘If the sanctionsare lifted,’ saidAlekperov. Hewould ready to implement theproject onourown once Statoil], butifthey are not interested, thenwe are ‘We are committed to ourpartnership[with introduction of international sanctions. Lukoil saidthat itleft Anaran becauseof the but thecontract wasnever concluded. Later, ing thedepositswithIranian authorities, companies discussedthepossibilityof develop- ing theAzarandChanguleoildeposits.Thetwo tion work ontheAnaran block,quicklydiscover- With Norway’s Commentary Paolo Scaroni inDavos. Statoil, Lukoil conducted explora - 1 Month in review ), NIOC), held inIranian accounts pendingtransfer. from Iran andallhave billionsof dollarsof cash China, India,andSouthKorea alsobuycrude It isunclearwhy Japanwasthefirst to pay. isolation. a furtheragreement endsTehran’s international was nothing corrupt aboutthe payment, the Although Ahmadi-Moqaddam maintained there cargo ascompensation.’ to the police withanoilcargo. We soldtheoil held ameeting andpaidthegovernment’s debt year, former president [Mahmoud ] of corrupt entities,’ saidAhmadi-Moqaddam.‘Last people mentioned thenameof thepolice inlists annual budget monitoring report. However, some ‘The money transfer wasmentioned inthe following thedisclosure of thepayment. a policemanagement conference heldinTehran ruption inapress conference onthesidelinesof Moqaddam objectedto theaccusation of cor- Police chief Brigadier-General EsmailAhmadi- national policeforce. administration to cover ashortfallinfundingthe the policebudget wasaneffort bytheprevious Police officials saidthetransfer of oil for sale to of crudeoil. budget, whichshows salesof US$185million earlier highlighted asectionof thisyear’s police change of government. Reports inIranian media lion to theministry for crudetraded before the said that theIranian policeowe US$185mil- Minister of Petroleum BijanNamdarZanganeh oil sold police Iranian 2 Special feature Ahmadinejad 5 Oil & gas measures to circumvent them. Ahmadinejad administration to unorthodox United States anditsallies.Itcertainlyledthe financial andoilsanctionsimposedbythe in regard to Iran’s attempts to cope withthe first –andisunlikely to bethelast – to emerge The controversy over thisoiltrade isnot the Supreme Audit Court hascriticisedthemeasure. from Iran to 20 bcmayear. apparently offered to raise its gaspurchase imports from theIslamicRepublic. Ankara has request from Turkey to doubleitsnatural gas said on16Februarythat Tehran isstudying a Petroleum Minister BijanNamdarZanganeh Turkey gas more requests Gas sector news exploration andproduction sector. sector, whichisalsocommonly known asthe sum willbespent intheupstream oilandgas overseas to funddomestic oilprojects. The Iran ( The Majleshasallowed theCentral Bankof projects oil funds CBI Iranian policesoldoil CBI) to allocate US$10billionof itsassets 6 Economy & business every 1,000m Iran iscurrently charging Turkey US$490for reduction inthepricewasunderconsideration. The minister saidTurkey’s request for a constructed onthe Pakistani side. on itsown soil andiswaitingfor 700kmto be Iran hasalready built900kmof thepipeline to Pakistan shouldstart by31December 2014. between Iran andPakistan, thefirst gasdelivery According to theoriginalagreement sealed sanctions ifitgoesaheadwiththeproject. has longthreatened Islamabadwitheconomic pling withseriousshortages.TheUnitedStates the country of over 180millionpeopleisgrap- meet itsgrowing energy needsat atimewhen The IPpipelineisdesignedto helpPakistan tant to continue becauseof Western pressure. pipeline, rejecting mediareports that itisreluc- to themultibillion-dollarIran–Pakistan (IP)gas mani hasreaffirmed Islamabad’s commitment ambassador to Tehran NoorMohammadJad- ISNA reported on9Februarythat Pakistani Pakistan to committed pipeline from Iran ifthetwo countries canagree onprice. said Turkey may doubleitsnatural gasimports Last month, Turkish Energy Minister Taner Yildiz its finalproposal abouttheprice.’ expert studies, Tehran willofficially announce this request,’ saidZanganeh. ‘After conducting negotiations, Iran hasnot yet fullyagreed with exports to Turkey double.Butdespitebilateral count inthegasselling[price]caseIran’s gas Turkish oilandenergy officials aboutadis- ‘Talks have beenheldbetween Iranian and 9 3 of gas. Iran diary 12 9 www.menas.co.uk Iran Strategic Focus · February 2014 votes in favour, 59against, and10abstentions. billion. Theprovisions were approved with130 costs of runningthegovernment) of US$84.1 billion, withagovernment general budget (the state expenditures inthebillstand at US$301.2 of the1393budget bill(starts 21March). Total The Majleshasapproved thegeneral provisions Budget bill approved Banking andfinance ECONOMY &BUSINESS Commentary Upstream update Iran, thePars OilandGasCompany ( develop thegiant natural gasfieldinsouthern have come to anendaswork continues to Drilling operations at phase18of SouthPars 18 Pars atSouth ends Drilling to all Iran Strategic Focus subscribers. in PDFfrom theMenaseLibrary, andisfree Moghan 1and2.Project Tracker isavailable Khorramabad, Garmsar, Dayyer, Danan,and mehr, Zavareh-Kashan, Saveh, Kouhdasht, Mehr, Alvand, Towsan, Forouz andIran- Ferdowsi, Farzad-B, Anaran, Farsi, Munir, Masjed Soleyman, Yadavaran, Golshanand Karkhed, CheshmehKhosh,Darkhovin, gan, South Azadegan,Bangestan, Band-e and Norouz, Salman,Kish,NorthAzade- and E,NorthPars, SouthPars, Soroush Douroud, EsfandiarandForouzan, SirriA contains cumulative information onBalal, Project Tracker, whichisupdated monthly, 1 Month in review POGC) government’s goalsinthebudget bill. stressed that turning thisaround isamongthe economic growth wasnegative last year, but calendar year. Nobakht acknowledged that economic recession willendinthenext Iranian ing President for PlanningandStrategic Monitor- Addressing theMPsbefore thevote, Vice- required to deposit29percent of oil revenues Five-Year Development Planthegovernment is MP revenue share oil NDF Table 1:Projecttracker South Pars phase18 South Azadeganoil North Azadeganoil Aghajari gasinjection Project feasibility studies, technicalandengineering All activitiesrelated to theoperations, including drilled inthephase. announced. Atotal of 11wells have been Gholamreza Kateb saidthat undertheFifth Mohammad-Baqer Nobakht saidthat the 2 Special feature > > > > > > > > > > > Dev Drillings endedmid-February, with11wells drilled CNPC to bringin25rigs2014,withplansto relocate onerig Five rigsactive Only 7wells drilled Progress of first phaseoperations at 7.5% 58 wells expected, 44already drilled Project to becompleted in18months Phase 1to produce 75,000b/d. Progress of phase1at 61% Injection capacityto riseto 0.52bcm/dbyJune2014 Injections still low at 16mcm/d,withcurrent capacityof 40mcm/d elopment 5 equipment were carriedoutbylocalexperts. services, planning,andprocurement of drilling Oil & gas last year’s loanfrom thefundto thegovernment. per cent of theoilrevenues intheNDFto repay addition, thegovernment isobligedto deposit2 into theNational Development Fund(NDF).In Total direct taxrevenues inthepast Iranian trillion (US$12.85billion). January) increased by30percent to IRR315 of thecurrent Iranian calendaryear (ending20 that direct taxrevenues inthefirst 10months Tax Affairs Organisation chairAliAskari said Tax revenues rise >>> www.menas.co.uk 6 Economy & business lion) inthecurrent year. mount to IRR450.8trillion(aboutUS$18.4bil- IRR312 trillion.Tax revenues are forecast to calendar year (ended20March 2013)were into thesystem. remains committed to bringing thesumback Seif announced,noting that theadministration formed inbank branches to collect thedebts, lion) inbadloans.Taskforce committees willbe carrying IRR800trillion(aboutUS$32.6 bil- Seif saidthat theIranian banking system is Central Bankof Iran ( loans Bad > > > > capital market experts: have sincecausedthedecline,according to perk upsignificantly, butthe following factors exchange inMay 2013,themarket started to e-Fars HoldingCompany were listed onthe When petrochemical companies includingKhalij- on 12January. record level of 90,000units,declined to 85,000 four days. TEPIX, whichwasapproaching a (TEPIX) took anunprecedented plungeover The Tehran Stock Exchange mainindex plunges TEPIX ment. were initiallyenticed byhighreturns US Congress cal companies reducing theprofitability of listed petrochemi- rumours of possiblechangesinTSEmanage- the departure of many smallinvestors who the probability of new sanctionsbythe higher pricesfor petrochemical feedstock, 9 Iran diary CBI) governor Valiollah 12 10 www.menas.co.uk Iran Strategic Focus · February 2014 year 1393(ends20March 2015). Tariffs on import tariffs willremain unchanged incalendar Valiollah Afkhami Raadhasannouncedthat Trade Promotion Organisation (TPO)head to stabilise tariffs Import Trade news arrest of Halkbank’sCEO. purchase of goldbullionandresulted inthe in Decemberwasreportedly focused onthis A corruption probe launchedbyTurkish police to buygoldbullionto besent to Iran. Halkbank inTurkish lira, whichwere thenused to Turkish officials, payments were made to against theIranian financial system. According by theUnitedStates andtheEuropean Union versial following theimpositionof sanctions payments to Iran becameincreasingly contro- Turkey’s useof Halkbankto process oilandgas Babacan wasreported assaying on8January. gas importsfrom Iran, DeputyPrimeMinister Ali to process payments for crudeoilandnatural Turkey’s state-owned Halkbankwillcontinue payments gas and oil Halkbank to process international businesslost dueto thebans. bank isseekingUS$3.98billioninreparation for Court, lawfirmZaiwalla &Company saidthe filing on14Februarywith London’s Commercial illegal sanctions,lawyers for thebanksaid.Ina the UKTreasury for lossof businesscausedby Bank Mellat, Iran’s largest private bank,issuing UK sues Mellat Bank Commentary 1 Month in review imported automobiles willdecrease, however. includes exports bythird countries (including to Iran. Evidently, the large share of theUAE share of thesecountries inthe value of exports South Korea andTurkey. Table 2shows the from theUnitedArab Emirates, China,India, oil cake, corn, soy bean,and vehicles, primarily 15 percent. Themain importeditemswere rice, At thesametime,importsdecreased byabout United Arab Emirates, India,andAfghanistan. importers of thesegoodswere China,Iraq, the sates, andpetrochemical products. Theprimary The mainexports were iron ore, gas conden- cent year-on-year decline. the calendaryear (ending20January),a2.5per US$33.8 billionduringthefirst 10months of announced that non-crudeoilexports stood at The Iran Customs Administration (ICA) value down Export * Includesthird-party imports. Turkey 7.72 South Korea India 8.77 China 19.57 United Arab Emirates* Rest of theworld (includingEU) OFimports (%) regions ofORIGIN C Table 2:Iranian imports ountries/ 2 Special feature Proportion 21.24 8.11 34.6 5 Oil & gas Iran andChinahadthehighest trade volume. the lowest amongP5+1members.Conversely, Trade between Iran andtheUnitedStates was billion, aUS$4.6billiontrade deficit for Iran. billion, andimportsfrom themwere US$11.1 Iranian exports to P5+1memberswere US$6.5 of thetotal value of Iranian trade intheperiod. calendar year wasUS$17.6billion,25percent P5+1 inthefirst 10months of thecurrent The total value of trade between Iran andthe to US$2.3billion. 2013–20 January2014)over previous month, in theIranian month of Dey (22December P5+1 nevertheless increased by11percent The value of trade between Iran andthe trade wasracked upover the10months. A trade deficit of US$3.8billioninnon-crudeoil indirectly. the UnitedStates) that opt to trade withIran 4–6 percent. of the ICAincreases thecost of businessby toms. He noted that theinefficient performance import orders, and clearthegoodsthrough cus- days to acquire licences, openLCs, register According to Karbasian,ittakes about32 cross-border trade. ranks 153thoutof 189countries intermsof that obstacles will begradually removed. Iran bureaucratic importprocedures andpromised Tejarat Farda magazine,criticisedthecurrent Administration (ICA),inaninterview with Masoud Karbasian, theheadof Iran Customs Bureaucratic procedures import 6 Economy & business > > > > > Karbasian attributed thehighvolume to > > > > are asfollows: Other highlights of Karbasian’sinterview A delegation of more than100 French French trade delegation currency at thefree market rate. required to pay doubletariffs and to buyforeign and Trade. To bringthegoodsin,importersare items bannedbytheMinistry of Industry, Mines, The goodswere initiallyincludedinalist of engine capacityof 2,500ccandhigher. luxury items–except for automobiles withan of goodsclassifiedas10thpriority–mainly Cabinet approved theremoval of abanonimport lifted ban import Luxury registration of importorders. as clothing volume. appliances, hadthehighest smuggling that of legalimports. smuggling. trade costs andobstacles andincreased bureaucratic regulations have ledto higher licences. the highcost of insurance, transport, and bans ontheimportof specificgoods a highrate of return for somegoodssuch numerous importprocedures andregulations high importtariffs The ‘10thprioritygoods,’ includinghome The volume of smugglingisalmost equalto Sanctions andtheprevious government’s Some 25entities currently issueimport 9 Iran diary > >>> 12 11 www.menas.co.uk Iran Strategic Focus · February 2014 January was27.5 percent, a1per cent decline The point-to-point inflation rate endingon20 December 2013showed itat 35.5percent. was 35percent. The 12months endingon21 tion for the 12months endingon20January The Statistical Centre of Iran (SCI)reported infla- down inflation Annual Economy inbrief both sideshave thewillto reach that objective. Turkey to US$30 billionby2015,stressing that the goalisto boost trade between Iran and On thesidelinesof theceremony, Erdogan said signing ceremony. Minister President for ahike inthebilateral trade. Iranian First Vice- agreement inTehran, whichcould pave theway Iran andTurkey signedapreferential trade Tehran, Ankara ink agreement Orange, andcarmaker Renault. Total, engineeringfirmAlstom, telecoms group bank. They includedbignamessuchasoilmajor ceuticals, andsportstraining, aswell asone insurance, advertising, construction, pharma- ing services,thefood industry, shipping,law, from consulting, asset management, engineer- Companies onthetripincluded representatives interest inIran for more thanadecade. biggest demonstration of Western business in what themediahave describedasthe delegates visitedTehran from 3to 5February Commentary Recep Tayyip Erdogan attended the Es’haq JahangiriandTurkish Prime 1 Month in review rate, however, rose 0.7percent to 1.2percent. from theprevious month. Themonthly inflation within subsidyreforms andallowed the sions of thesecond phaseof priceincreases On 17February, the Majlespassedtheprovi- air pollution. to improve publictransportation andalleviate increases incitieswithover 1millionresidents The note also incorporated amoduleontax > > > Revenues willbeallocated asfollows: electricity, andother goodsandservices. realised bydecreasing thesubsidiesonbread, About IRR113trillion(US$4.6billion)willbe realised from priceincreases inenergy carriers. Around IRR519trillion(US$21.2billion)willbe Revenues willberaised asfollows: per cent increase over thecurrent fiscal year. budget at IRR632trillion(US$25.8billion),a20 26 Januaryestablishing thesubsidyreform plan The government sent anote to theMajleson to Majles notesent Subsidy IRR120 trillion,a100percent increase. both cashand kindto lower-income families. and publictransport. to theimprovement of theproduction sector Healthcare subsidieswillbeincreased to IRR532 trillion(US$21.7billion)willbepaidin Around IRR100trillion(US$4.1billion)willgo 2 Special feature >>> Independent monthly news andanalysisof economic, politicalandfinancial developments inIraq 5 Menas Oil & gas Year inearlyApril2014. government to increase pricesafter theNew an average urbanfamilyare shown inTable 3. Details onthecomposition of expenditures in Bakhtiari hadthehighest annualexpenditures. annual incomes andIlamChaharMahal Tehran andFarsprovinces hadthehighest respectively. of theirincome onfood andnon-food items, Urban familiesspent 24.7and75.3percent calendar year 1390(ended21March 2012). diture of urbanandrural familiesfor theIranian detailed statistics of average income andexpen - The Statistical Centre of Iran (SCI)hasreleased buy families What Monitoring Vice-President for PlanningandStrategic million (aboutUS$204). to familieswithamonthly income below IRR5 mentation process. The basket willbeallocated will receive thebasket inatwo-phase imple- Ali Rabieisaidthat around 7millionfamilies US$32.6). Minister of Welfare andSocialAffairs etable oiland isvalued at IRR800,000(about comprises rice,poultry, cheese,eggs,andveg- families andstate employees. Thebasket to distribute agoodsbasket to low-income On 2February, theIranian government started Government goods basket Mohammad-Baqer Nobakht noted Iraq 6 Economy & business Focus making distribution challenging. making distribution challenging. ents of thegoodsbasket have beenreported, problems related to thebankaccounts of recipi- not beenallocated thebasket. Moreover, many labourers whoreceive low monthly wageshave lies raised criticism.Considerable numbersof goods basket, theidentification of eligiblefami - As thegovernment begandistribution of the withdrawn from the1392budget allocations. trillion (aboutUS$930million)whichhasbeen that thebudget for thebasket stands at IRR23 Other 2.3 Spices 2.8 Oil 3.7 Nuts andbeans Sugar, tea,coffee, cocoa Soft drinks,precooked food, tobacco Milk anddairyproducts Fruits andvegetables Flour, bread, cereals Meat 23.7 C on food andtobacco Urban familyexpenditures Table 3: ommodity Proportion 9 Iran diary 10.6 16.7 (%) 7.6 23 12 5 7 12 www.menas.co.uk Iran Strategic Focus · February 2014 > > January 15 > > > > > January 14 > > > January 13 IRAN DIARY Commentary Takhte Ravanchi. Corona met visitingDeputyForeign Minister Kuwait City. Deputy Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian in Minister Prime Minister AbdullahEnsourandForeign Baghdad. and PrimeMinister NouriAl-Malikiin for Foreign Affairs KhaledAl-Jarallah. held ameeting withKuwaiti Undersecretary African Affairs HosseinAmir-Abdollahian Parliamentary Speaker OsamaAl-Nujaifi. counterpart the Tehran CityCouncil. Mohammad BaqerQalibaf andmembersof Ali Khameneireceived Tehran Mayor Nabih BerriinBeirut. Tamam Salam,andParliamentary Speaker President Mohammad Javad Zarif met Lebanese nation tour to Cuba,Venezuela, andBolivia. Affairs Cuban Foreign Minister Antonio Carricarte UN Secretary General BanKi-moonmet In separate meetings, Zarif met Jordanian Zarif met Iraqi counterpart Hoshyar Zebari Visiting DeputyForeign Minister for Arab– Zarif arrived inIraq andmet Iraqi Foreign Minister Zarif met Lebanese Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyyed In separate meetings Foreign Minister Deputy Foreign Minister for Euro-American Majid Takht Ravanchi started athree- Nasser Judeh. , Prime Minister Michel Suleiman,PrimeMinister Adnan MansourinBeirut. 1 Month in review > > January 18 > > > January 17 > January 16 Vladimir Putin > > Foreign Minister Walid Al-Moallem. Prime Minister Wael NaderAl-Halqi,and Zarif met Syrian President BasharAl-Assad, Sanaei, met RussianPresident Putin. Rodríguez Parrilla inHavana. met CubanForeign Minister BrunoEduardo Regional Affairs OmarOnhuninIstanbul. met Turkish DeputyForeign Minister for Lavrov Vladimir PutinandForeign Minister Sergei Tehran. Kenyan Senate Speaker Ekwe Ethuro in Bushehr. scale shooktheprovinces of Farsand In separate meetings, visitingForeign Minister Deputy Foreign Minister Takhte Ravanchi met Iran’s new ambassadorto Moscow, Mahdi Deputy Foreign Minister Takhte Ravanchi Deputy Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian Foreign Minister Zarif met RussianPresident met First Vice-President Es’haqJahangirimet An earthquake measuring 4.3ontheRichter inMoscow. 2 Special feature 5 Oil & gas > > > > > January 21 > > > January 20 > > January 19 in Tehran. and Middle-East Affairs Jean-François Giroux met French Director-General for NorthAfrica a phoneconversation. discussed theGeneva IIconference onSyria in counterpart in Cuba. Venezuelan counterpart Nicolas Maduro Works Jahangiri met NigerianMinister of State for Amir-Abdollahian andFirst Vice-President Foreign Minister SarmadiinTehran. of theUNWorld Food Programme met Deputy Mozaffari met Justice Minister AnnaMaria. Barrón inTehran. Sarmadi met Mexican MPGabrielaCuevas Larijani andDeputyForeign Minister Morteza to discussthelatest developments inSyria. Ahmet Davutoglu heldaphoneconversation Iranian diplomat NourAhmadNikbakht. Bakr Al-Qirbito clarifythefate of kidnapped conversation withYemeni counterpart Abu met First Vice-President Jahangiri. Deputy Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian Zarif andUNSecretary General BanKi-moon Foreign Minister Zarif met visitingSenegalese In separate meetings, DeputyForeign Minister Assistant Secretary-General ErtharinCousin Iranian ambassadorto ItalyJahanbakhsh In separate meetings, MajlesSpeaker Ali Foreign Minister Zarif andTurkish counterpart Foreign Minister Zarif heldaphone Visiting SenegaleseForeign Minister Ndiaye Bashir Yuguda inTehran. Mankeur Ndiaye. 6 Economy & business > January 26 > > January 25 > > > January 24 > > January 23 > January 22 > > met MPAlaeddinBoroujerdi. Leader, de Charette met theadviserto Supreme Mohammad AliNajafiinMadrid. García-Margallo met First Vice-President counterpart counterpart, José ManuelBarroso andhisAzeri Didier BurkhalterinDavos. Chief Minister Davutoglu andEUForeign Policy Prime Minister MarkRutte. Forum president KlausSchwab andDutch Davos, President Rohani met World Economic to attend World Economic Forum. Iranian nuclearprogramme over thephone. Zarif discussedtheSyrian conflict andthe Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedow inAshgabat. Sri Lankan ambassadorto Iran Faisal Visiting former French foreign minister Hervé Spain Foreign Minister JoséManuel Foreign Minister Zarif met Norwegian Rohani met European Commission president President Rohani met Swisscounterpart Foreign Minister Zarif met Turkish Foreign At the44thWorld Economic Forum summitin President Rohani left Tehran for Switzerland British Foreign Secretary WilliamHagueand Foreign Minister Zarif met Turkmen President Catherine Ashton inDavos. Ali-Akbar Velayati. 9 Borge Brebde inDavos. Ilham Alyiev, inDavos. Iran diary >>> Rafeen 12 13 www.menas.co.uk Iran Strategic Focus · February 2014 > > 29 January > > > January 28 > > > > > January 27 > Commentary facility and Gachin mine. facility andGachin mine. officials inspectedtheArak heavy water Prime Minister Erdogan. Minister Amir-Abdollahian met visitingTurkish President Jahangiri,andDeputyForeign Khamenei, President Rohani, First Vice- Tourism andCulture Bray. General Tehran. Igor Ivanov met Foreign Minister Zarif in Charette andformer Russian foreign minister General Rafsanjani met visitingformer UNSecretary Asghar Mohammadi. P. Garcia met Iranian ambassadorto ManilaAli National AssemblySpeaker Kang. Bray Minister of Tourism andCulture Massimo and DeputyForeign Minister Takht Ravanchi. foreign minister Charette met MPBoroujerdi Chang-hee. Korean National AssemblySpeaker Kang International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) In separate meetings, Supreme Leader EC chairRafsanjani met ItalianMinister of President Rohani met former UNSecretary- Visiting former French foreign minister Expediency Council (EC)chair AkbarHashemi Deputy Foreign Minister of PhilippinesEvan President Rohani met visitingSouth Korean Foreign Minister Zarif met visitingItalian In separate meetings, visitingformer French Majles Speaker Larijanimet visitingSouth . Kofi AnnaninTehran. Kofi Annan. 1 Month in review > > > 01 February > > January 30 > > > 03 February > 02 February Conference. on thesidelinesof the50thMunichSecurity Walter Steinmeier, andMPNorbertRottgen Najib Mikati, GermanForeign Minister Frank- Erkki Tuomioja, Lebanese Prime Minister Shivshankar Menon,FinnishForeign Minister rent Fabius, IndianNational SecurityAdviser Sebastian Kurz, French Foreign Minister Lau- eral BanKi-moon,Austrian Foreign Minister Tehran. Ebtekar met Iraqi PrimeMinister Al-Malikiin in Madrid. met Spanishcounterpart GonzaloDeBenito Roknabadi inBeirut. Iranian ambassadorto Lebanon Ghazanfar Marzouki. met Tunisian President Mohamed the specialenvoy of Justice Minister Frank Al-Khazaei inBaghdad. Ebtekar met Iraqi PrimeMinister Khazir Cabinet Secretary envoy DipoAlam inTehran. Mohammad Nahavandain, met Indonesian John Kerry onthesidelinesof the50thMSC. Foreign Minister Zarif met USSecretary of State Foreign Minister Zarif met UNSecretary Gen- Department of Environment headMasoumeh Deputy Foreign Minister MehdiDaneshYazdi Swedish ambassadorNiklasKebbon met Iranian ambassadorto Tunis Payman Jebelli A visitingSierra Leonean delegation ledby Visiting Department of Environment head The chief of staff of Iran’s presidential office, 2 Special feature Moncef 5 Oil & gas > > > 07 February > 06 February > > 05 February > > > > 04 February Amir-Abdollahian. Kargbo conferred DeputyForeign Minister minister AherninTehran. Bogdanov. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhael Shakour JanZohorov. Dushanbe, met Tajik Parliamentary Speaker Rafsanjani inTehran. counterpart Cooperation (OIC),Iyad Madni. general of theOrganization of Islamic Irish primeminister BertieAherninTehran. Shamkhani. Supreme National SecurityCouncil (SNSC)Ali Yevgeny Lukyanov , met thesecretary of the Security Council of theRussianFederation, Bildt inTehran. met visitingSwedish Foreign Minister Carl shipment of humanitarianassistance to Syria. tripartite talkswithIran to facilitate the Manual BeslerandHissamelMalehheld EC chairRafsanjani met former Irishprime met Iran ambassadorto RussiaMahdiSanaeimet Mahmoud Sadri,theIranian ambassador in Swedish Foreign Minister Bildtmet ECchair Foreign Minister Zarif met Moroccan President Rohani met thevisiting secretary Supreme Leader adviserVelayati met former The visitingdeputysecretary of the Foreign Minister Zarif andPresident Rohani Swiss andSyrian delegations headedby Salaheddine Mezouar inTehran. 6 Economy & business > > > > > > 12 February > 11 y Februar > 10 February > 08 February Tero Varjoranta arrived inTehran. constitution. a ceremony for theapproval of Tunisia’s new President >>> Higher Education AbidullahAbidinTehran. Minister Zarif heldaphoneconversation. Lumpur Zainuddin met Iranian ambassadorto Kuala of the1979IslamicRevolution. Tehran’s AzadiSquare to marktheanniversary Gutierrez. Mexican ambassadorUlisesCanchola ambassador Guinea ambassador ibn AhmadAliAl-Salayti , andnew Omani Sukhasvasti, new Qatari ambassadorAli Jadmani, new ThaiambassadorAdisorndej ambassador to Tehran NoorMuhammad Mohammad Raeesi . met Iranian ambassadorto Armenia IAEA deputydirector-general of safeguards Visiting MajlesSpeaker Larijanimet Lebanese Armenian PrimeMinister Tigran Sarkisian EC chairRafsanjani met Afghan Minister of Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov andForeign Malaysian Foreign Minister Hamzah President Rohani addressed crowds in President Rohani met new ambassadorof President Rohani met new Pakistani Bangali Diakhabi,new Tunisian Mohammad JalalFirouznia . 9 Michel Suleimanonthesidelinesof , and new Ghazi benSalah,andnew Ahmed binAlBarwani. Iran diary 12 14 www.menas.co.uk Iran Strategic Focus · February 2014 > > 15 February Commentary Kigbafori Soro met MajlesSpeaker Larijani Rahimpour inDushanbe. Minister for AsiaandPacific Affairs Ebrahim Minister in Tehran. Ivorian Parliamentary Speaker Guillaume Tajik President EmomaliRahmonandForeign Serajeddin Aslov met Iranian Foreign 1 Month in review > > > 16 February counterpart Pego met Foreign Minister Zarif. liamentary delegation, Senator Valder Raot . Foreign Minister Zarif met Turkmen New Cypriot ambassadorto Tehran Andreas MP Boroujerdi met theheadof aBrazilian par- 2 Rashid Meredov inTehran. Special feature visit ourwebsite 5 >>> Oil & gas > > > www.menas.co.uk Nazrin, met Zarif. Hamad binJassimAl-Thani. Abdollahian met Qatari counterpart Sheikh Mansour. Parliamentary Speaker Fateh Ezzedin Burundi’s new ambassadorto Tehran, Omar Visiting DeputyForeign Minister Amir- EC chairRafsanjani met visitingSudanese 6 Economy & business Menas Associates 9 Iran diary >>> 12