Diplomatic Unease Casts Shadow on Jordan-Iran Ties
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The IRGC in the Age of Ebrahim Raisi: Decision-Making and Factionalism in Iran’S Revolutionary Guard
The IRGC in the Age of Ebrahim Raisi: Decision-Making and Factionalism in Iran’s Revolutionary Guard SAEID GOLKAR AUGUST 2021 KASRA AARABI Contents Executive Summary 4 The Raisi Administration, the IRGC and the Creation of a New Islamic Government 6 The IRGC as the Foundation of Raisi’s Islamic Government The Clergy and the Guard: An Inseparable Bond 16 No Coup in Sight Upholding Clerical Superiority and Preserving Religious Legitimacy The Importance of Understanding the Guard 21 Shortcomings of Existing Approaches to the IRGC A New Model for Understanding the IRGC’s Intra-elite Factionalism 25 The Economic Vertex The Political Vertex The Security-Intelligence Vertex Charting IRGC Commanders’ Positions on the New Model Shades of Islamism: The Ideological Spectrum in the IRGC Conclusion 32 About the Authors 33 Saeid Golkar Kasra Aarabi Endnotes 34 4 The IRGC in the Age of Ebrahim Raisi Executive Summary “The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps [IRGC] has excelled in every field it has entered both internationally and domestically, including security, defence, service provision and construction,” declared Ayatollah Ebrahim Raisi, then chief justice of Iran, in a speech to IRGC commanders on 17 March 2021.1 Four months on, Raisi, who assumes Iran’s presidency on 5 August after the country’s June 2021 election, has set his eyes on further empowering the IRGC with key ministerial and bureaucratic positions likely to be awarded to guardsmen under his new government. There is a clear reason for this ambition. Expanding the power of the IRGC serves the interests of both Raisi and his 82-year-old mentor, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader of the Islamic Republic. -
Iran Case File (April 2021)
IRAN CASE FILE April 2021 RASANAH International Institute for Iranian Studies, Al-Takhassusi St. Sahafah, Riyadh Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. P.O. Box: 12275 | Zip code: 11473 Contact us [email protected] +966112166696 Executive Summary .....................................................................................4 Internal Affairs ........................................................................................... 7 The Ideological File .............................................................................................8 1. Women and the “Political Man” ............................................................................... 8 2. Khatami and the Position of Women ......................................................................10 The Political File ............................................................................................... 12 1. The Most Notable Highlights of the Leaked Interview .............................................12 2. Consequences and Reactions .................................................................................13 3. The Position of the Iranian President and Foreign Ministry on the Interview ..........14 4. The Implications of Leaking the Interview at This Time..........................................15 The Economic File ............................................................................................. 16 1. Bitcoin’s Genesis Globally and the Start of Its Use in Iran ........................................16 2. The Importance of Bitcoin for Iran -
Iran Stands up Against Transatlantic Bullying the Tabriz Based Club’S Officials Parted Company with the 49-Year-Old Coach on Tuesday
WWW.TEHRANTIMES.COM I N T E R N A T I O N A L D A I L Y 8 Pages Price 50,000 Rials 1.00 EURO 4.00 AED 42nd year No.13829 Wednesday DECEMBER 9, 2020 Azar 19, 1399 Rabi’ Al thani 23, 1442 Zarif advises regional Jordan Burroughs Iranian university Architect Amirali states to exclude West misses competing students runner-up Sardar-Afkhami in regional talks Page 2 in Iran Page 3 at IMC 2020 Page 7 dies at 91 Page 8 Iran completely self-sufficient in building freight wagons Iran stands up against TEHRAN – Iranian railway industry has systems for freight wagons. become completely self-reliant in man- “For the first time this year, national ufacturing freight wagons, Head of the (domestically-made) wheels will move on Islamic Republic of Iran Railways (known the national rail,” the official said. as RAI) Saeed Rasouli said. Mentioning the launch of a system for Speaking in an unveiling ceremony for introducing the needs of the country’s railway transatlantic bullying domestically-made wagon brake system industry to domestic manufacturers and and wheels on Tuesday, Rasouli announced companies producing parts for the railway that RAI is going to sign a contract with transportation industry, the official noted domestic manufacturers for the purchase that so far 4,600 parts have been requested See page 3 of 500 monoblock wheels and 500 brake on this website. Continued on page 4 Rouhani: Astana peace talks can protect Syrian territorial integrity TEHRAN — President Hassan Rouhani Rouhani said during a meeting with visiting on Tuesday hailed the Astana peace talks, Syrian Foreign Minister Faisal al-Mekdad. -
In Iran? How Did Rouhani Avoid a "Venezuelan : ΩϭοϭϣϟϤϭϧϋ Scenario" in Iran? 21/05/2017 : ΈηϧϟΦϳέύη
How did Rouhani Avoid a "Venezuelan : ωϭοϭϣϟϡγ Scenario" in Iran? How did Rouhani Avoid a "Venezuelan : ωϭοϭϣϟϥϭϧϋ Scenario" in Iran? 21/05/2017 : έηϧϟΦϳέΎΗ ΔϣΩϘΗϣϟΕΎγέΩϟϭΙΎΣΑϸϟϝΑϘΗγϣϟίϛέϣ : ΏΗΎϛϟϡγ : ωϭοϭϣϟ 10/2/2021 2:24:03 AM 1 / 2 Competition between Iran¶s 12th presidential candidates that was held on May 19, 2017, heated up after their debates concluded only one week before the race began, with Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, a conservative politician and former military officer, and incumbent Vice President Eshaq Jahangiri, dropped out of the race. In the May 12 third debate which kept its focus on the economic situation, incumbent reformist President Hassan Rouhani, appeared to have taken the lead from conservative candidate Ebrahim Raisi, the current custodian and chairman of Astan Quds Razavi in Mashhad City. Rouhani focused on potential risks that Iran would face if it adopts the economic policies pursued by the conservatives, that, in his view, would result in having what can be called a ³Venezuelan scenario´in Iran.Rouhani pointed out that the other candidates are promising higher financial subsidies for citizens and said it would be possible but might result in a scenario similar to that of Venezuela where inflation rates have soared. For Rouhani, this threatens Iran¶s economic and political stability. This concurs with warnings from some Iranian officials that Iran could be hit by a wave of violence that could be more severe than the 2009 protests staged by a group of reformists, known then as the Green Movement, against the presidential elections in which former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad won a second term.Proponents of Ahmadinejad's PoliciesRouhani reaffirmed that such policies are largely similar to economic measures taken by the government of two times President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, especially with regards to providing financial subsidies to citizens, which then caused inflation rates to jump to as high as 40% under the conservative president. -
Iran's Nuclear Ambitions From
IDENTITY AND LEGITIMACY: IRAN’S NUCLEAR AMBITIONS FROM NON- TRADITIONAL PERSPECTIVES Pupak Mohebali Doctor of Philosophy University of York Politics June 2017 Abstract This thesis examines the impact of Iranian elites’ conceptions of national identity on decisions affecting Iran's nuclear programme and the P5+1 nuclear negotiations. “Why has the development of an indigenous nuclear fuel cycle been portrayed as a unifying symbol of national identity in Iran, especially since 2002 following the revelation of clandestine nuclear activities”? This is the key research question that explores the Iranian political elites’ perspectives on nuclear policy actions. My main empirical data is elite interviews. Another valuable source of empirical data is a discourse analysis of Iranian leaders’ statements on various aspects of the nuclear programme. The major focus of the thesis is how the discourses of Iranian national identity have been influential in nuclear decision-making among the national elites. In this thesis, I examine Iranian national identity components, including Persian nationalism, Shia Islamic identity, Islamic Revolutionary ideology, and modernity and technological advancement. Traditional rationalist IR approaches, such as realism fail to explain how effective national identity is in the context of foreign policy decision-making. I thus discuss the connection between national identity, prestige and bargaining leverage using a social constructivist approach. According to constructivism, states’ cultures and identities are not established realities, but the outcomes of historical and social processes. The Iranian nuclear programme has a symbolic nature that mingles with socially constructed values. There is the need to look at Iran’s nuclear intentions not necessarily through the lens of a nuclear weapons programme, but rather through the regime’s overall nuclear aspirations. -
'Principlists' Concentrate Attacks on Rohani
March 12, 2017 15 News & Analysis Iran ‘Principlists’ concentrate attacks on Rohani Gareth Smyth been critical of the 2015 nuclear agreement, the Joint Comprehen- sive Plan of Action (JCPOA), with London world powers. Hamidreza Baqaee, vice-presi- hortly after Hossein-Ali dent for executive affairs under Ro- Amiri, Iranian vice-presi- hani’s predecessor, Mahmoud Ah- dent for parliamentary af- madinejad, has already announced fairs, confirmed to the of- he would stand, although he could ficial IRNA news agency well be blocked by the watchdog Sthat President Hassan Rohani would Council of Guardians, which in 2013 seek a second term in the election, barred Ahmadinejad’s chief of staff, due May 19th, the president visited Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei. Sistan-Baluchestan, a south-eastern Other principlists have estab- province that polled heavily in his lished the Popular Front of Islamic favour in 2013. Revolution Forces (PFIRF) to agree Front-page pictures of Rohani ris- on a single candidate but are strug- ing for the national anthem along- gling to find a charismatic figure. side Abdul-Hamid Esmail-Zehi, Among the names bandied about perhaps Iran’s pre-eminent Sunni is Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the cleric, conveyed a timely image to Tehran mayor who unsuccessfully Iranian voters of a president seeking ran for president in 2005 and 2013. reconciliation but standing firm in “Ghalibaf is the only potential big- an unstable world. name challenger,” said Farhi, “but Rohani’s election platform will he’s mired in a corruption scandal be continued international engage- of his own. The Popular Front of Helped by ment and cautious economic re- Islamic Revolution Forces is strug- divisions. -
Iran Report 5 Budget Final Review
A Budget for Challenging Times To what extent will the government’s 2019-20 Budget shield Iranians from economic turmoil? ECONOMIC RISK SERIES NO.3 | MAY 2019 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY • Predicting Iran’s revenues for the financial year 2019- 20 (which ends in March 2020) is nearly impossible as the full impact of US sanctions is not yet known. What is certain, however, is that the state will be met with a sizeable budget deficit, ranging from 20% to 45% depending on scenarios. • Iran’s 2019-20 (Persian Year 1398) budget aims to protect the population from the worst effects of the economic crisis, which will involve postponing long- term structural reforms and depleting foreign exchange reserves. The state’s fear of public protest has pushed it to become the world-leading subsidiser of fossil fuels, thus wasting $45bn per year. • The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and religious foundations have seen their budgets increase in the context of the “Resistance Economy”, much to the discontent of Iranians. • Recent floods will cost as much as $2.5bn, a significant burden for the government to bear. Who are we? Castlereagh Associates is a research and analysis company, providing clients with key insights to support their decision-making and enable them to build more competitive and resilient businesses on national, regional and global levels. Copyright © 2019 Castlereagh Associates- All Rights Reserved. Credits: Copyright © Shutterstock IRANIAN PARLIAMENT A BUDGET FOR CHALLENGING TIMES: A Widening Budget Deficit: $76bn $61bn $50bn Planned Revenues Planned Revenues Planned Revenues $72bn $72bn $72bn Planned Spending Planned Spending Planned Spending Source: The draft budget 2019- Source: Donya-e-Eqtesad, Our Worst-Case Scenario 20, presented by Donya-e- March 2019, Page.194 Eqtesad Masood Nili 3 3 ECONOMIC RISK SERIES NO.3 | MAY 2019 Iranian parliamentarians always aim for a zero-deficit budget. -
The Intelligence Organization of the IRGC: a Major Iranian Intelligence Apparatus Dr
רמה כ ז מל ו תשר מה ו ד י ע י ן ( למ מ" ) רמה כרמ כ ז ז מל מה ו י תשר עד מל מה ו ד ו י ד ע י י ע ן י ן ו רטל ( למ ו מ" ר ) כרמ ז מה י עד מל ו ד י ע י ן ו רטל ו ר The Intelligence Organization of the IRGC: A Major Iranian Intelligence Apparatus Dr. Raz Zimmt November 5, 2020 Main Argument The Intelligence Organization of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) has become a major intelligence apparatus of the Islamic Republic, having increased its influence and broadened its authorities. Iran’s intelligence apparatus, similar to other control and governance apparatuses in the Islamic Republic, is characterized by power plays, rivalries and redundancy. The Intelligence Organization of the IRGC, which answers to the supreme leader, operates alongside the Ministry of Intelligence, which was established in 1984 and answers to the president. The redundancy and overlap in the authorities of the Ministry of Intelligence and the IRGC’s Intelligence Organization have created disagreements and competition over prestige between the two bodies. In recent years, senior regime officials and officials within the two organizations have attempted to downplay the extent of disagreements between the organizations, and strove to present to domestic and foreign audience a visage of unity. The IRGC’s Intelligence Organization (ILNA, July 16, 2020) The IRGC’s Intelligence Organization, in its current form, was established in 2009. The Organization’s origin is in the Intelligence Unit of the IRGC, established shortly after the Islamic Revolution (1979). -
Menas Associates Ltd Cannot Ensure Against Orbeheld Disclaimer Publisher
Menas Iran Strategic Focus 02 /14 >>> Politically independent monthly news and analysis of strategic developments in Iran 02 Slow, slow, quick quick slow: The path to a · Volume 10 · Number· Volume 10 comprehensive deal 014 2 On 18 February the negotiating teams of Iran implementation of the interim deal began on 20 the future of the Arak heavy water reactor, the (AEOI) director Ali Akbar Salehi has already and the P5+1 (the United States, United King- January and has proceeded smoothly. Western enrichment site in Fordo, and the degree of Inter- stated that Tehran is willing to make adjust- February dom, Russia, France, and China plus Germany) governments have introduced some sanctions national Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) supervi- ments to reduce concerns about its utilisation. started a new round of talks in Vienna to final- relief, and Iran is reconfiguring some of the com- sion over the programme. Evidently, compromises ise the agenda for negotiations towards a com- ponents of its nuclear programme, in particular are possible in all these areas. As Foreign Minister The Fordo site was originally designed to enrich prehensive nuclear deal. reducing the level of uranium enrichment to Mohammad Javad Zarif remarked, making sure uranium to 20 per cent and has been reconfig- below 5 per cent. that the nuclear programme remains peaceful is ured to reduce that to below 5 per cent. West- This round of negotiations is expected to take also an Iranian objective. ern governments insist that the site should be 6 to 12 months. Its objective is clear: based on Although the Iranian delegation believes that a shut down, however, and that scenario is unac- the interim deal signed on 24 November 2013, comprehensive agreement is achievable within Iran currently has 19,000 centrifuges, 9,000 of ceptable to Iran. -
Iran's Presidential Elections: Results and Implications
Position Paper Iran’s Presidential Elections: Results and Implications 24 June. 2021 Contents Introduction ......................................................... 3 I- Iran’s Presidential Election and Crisis Dimensions .......................................................... 3 II- Iran’s Authoritarian “Engineered” Presidential Election and Priorities of Electoral Participation ........................................................ 5 III- The Results and Implications of the Election ............................................................... 7 IV- The Consequences of Electing Raisi ......... 10 Introduction: Under internal and external pressures, Iran’s political system held its presidential elections on June 18, 2021. The seemingly already determined result showed that “hardline” cleric Ebra- him Raisi won the election. This election was of particular im- portance due to the developments taking place inside and outside Iran. Therefore, its result will have an important impact on the overall situation whether on Iranians at home or on Iran’s foreign relations. This report will highlight the most important develop- ments regarding the election, its results and its implications inside and outside Iran. I- Iran’s Presidential Election and Crisis Dimensions The presidential election took place under critical internal condi- tions as the country continues to suffer from isolation and siege in the aftermath of US sanctions and the Rouhani government’s failure to fulfill its promises. These critical conditions have led to competition -
Aktuelle Hinweise Iran 01.09.2014
01. September 2014 Aktuelle Hinweise IRAN: Non-oil exports up by 20.83% in first 5 months of the Iranian year. Trade volume reaches USD 41 billion and 620 million As per the latest figures released by the Islamic Republic of Iran Customs Administration USD 19 billion and 639 million of goods have been exported and USD 21 billion and 981 million of goods have been imported into the country during the first five months of the Iranian calendar year (starting March 21, 2014). The data show an increase of 20.83% for non-oil exports and of 33.59% for imports compared to the same time last year. The largest shares of goods were imported from Iran by China, Iraq, UAE, Afghanistan and India. The main Iranian export products included liquefied propane, liquefied methanol and butane. The goods Iran imported most of were wheat with a share of 4.97%, vehicles with internal combustion piston engine (more than 1500cc) with 3.66%, rice with 3.47%, corn with 2.63%, and soy meal with 2.42%. The main exporters of goods to Iran were UAE, China, India, South Korea and Turkey respectively. Indigenous automobile production reaches 400k in five months The Iranian automobile production has reached about 405,000 during the first five months of the Iranian calendar year (beginning on March 21, 2014). This corresponds with an increase of 74.3% compared to the same time last year. Eight different automobile models were mainly produced by Iran’s two largest manufacturers SAIPA (Société Anonyme Iranienne de Production Automobile) and IKCO (Iran Khodro). -
Viral Tragedy in the Islamic Republic of Iran By-Apurbaa Sengupta, Research Intern, AIDIA 1 August 2020
Viral tragedy in the Islamic Republic of Iran By-Apurbaa Sengupta, Research Intern, AIDIA 1 August 2020 Introduction: The spread of a virus, as fatal as the Coronavirus, constitutes an enormous threat to mankind anywhere in the world. The beginning of the new decade observed the entire world plunge into an extraordinary global public health crisis, the first of its kind in centuries. A respiratory disease, popularised worldwide as the Coronavirus broke out from the Huanan Seafood Market in the Chinese province of Wuhan and eventually trickled into every corner of the world1. The politically instable and disturbed region, such as the Middle East was not an exception. Within two months of the viral outbreak, the Islamic Republic of Iran acquired the second position after China, in terms of the worst affected countries and emerged as an epicentre of the epidemic2. The country which had for so long been debilitated by international sanctions and economic fallouts now wrestled to cope with a health emergency. What further exacerbated the plight of Iranians was a belated, haphazard government response to counter the looming threat and politicisation of the invisible enemy by leaders to gain political dividends. The initial outbreak of the global infection: The location of Iran is several thousand kilometres away from the original epicentre of the global infection. How then did the invisible global enemy reach the Islamic Republic? Iran reported its first confirmed case of Coronavirus on February 19, 20203. Reports from the authorities suggest that the widening outbreak began in the holy city of Qom and the authorities acknowledged the presence of the virus only after the city reported two COVID deaths.