Issue , Year UK £2 www.thearabweekly.com 180 4 EU €2.50 November 4, 2018 Foreign powers Arab-Israeli jockeying for relations after influence in Netanyahu’s Horn of Africa visit to Oman Page 5 Page 4 Iran continues plots abroad as new American sanctions kick in

Thomas Seibert the United States would not be able to reduce Iranian oil exports to less than 1 million barrels per day. Istanbul EU countries created what is known as a Special Purpose Ve- ran is battling accusations of hicle designed to shield trade be- plotting assassinations of Ira- tween Europe and Iran from US nian dissidents in the Europe- sanctions. I an Union at the very moment Given Trump’s problems in it is seeking support from Europe cobbling together an anti-Tehran and neighbouring countries to front, Iranian Foreign Minister cushion the blow of US sanctions Mohammad Javad Zarif sounded targeting Tehran’s oil sector. confident. Denmark said it suspected an “The neighbouring countries Iranian intelligence service was and European nations have resist- planning to kill a member of the ed Washington’s unilateral meas- Iranian Arab opposition in its ter- ures,” Zarif said at a meeting with ritory. The charge followed a deci- his counterparts from Turkey and sion by France to expel an Iranian Azerbaijan in Istanbul. diplomat over an alleged plot to Vaez said Iran had improved re- attack a rally by an exiled Iranian lations with Iraq and Syria. “These opposition group near Paris. ties won’t mitigate the impact of Iranian President Hassan Rohani US sanctions but will provide it tried to display defiance ahead of with a lifeline under sanctions,” he the impending US measures, tell- said. ing Washington it would not break However, the suspected involve- Iran’s economy. Rohani, however, ment of Iranian agents in a plot Sad days. A Coptic woman mourns victims killed in an ISIS attack, during a church ceremony in admitted the sanctions would to kill members of the country’s Egypt’s Minya province, on November 3. (AFP) make life harder for a population diaspora in Europe is throwing a suffering from domestic economic wrench into Tehran’s efforts to get problems. closer to its neighbours and the European Union. “The cornerstone in Iran’s Denmark is pushing for EU sanc- efforts to skirt US sanctions is tions against Tehran because of Bloody ISIS attack its ties with its neighbours.” the suspected plot by a Norwe- gian-Iranian national, who is ac- Ali Vaez, cused of trying to kill the leader director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group in Washington of the Danish branch of the Arab Struggle Movement for the Lib- eration of Ahvaz on behalf of an intensifies fears Rohani spoke as his government Iranian intelligence service. Iran braced for US sanctions aimed at said the charges were part of a con- reducing Iran’s crucial oil exports spiracy aiming “to damage Iranian to zero. relations with Europe at this criti- US President Donald Trump end- cal time.” ed the United States’ participation France said Iran’s Ministry of of Egypt’s Copts in the 2015 nuclear treaty with Iran Intelligence was behind a plan to in May. He argues that heightened bomb a rally of the National Coun- economic pressure on Tehran is cil of Resistance of Iran, an exiled Ahmed Megahid side a church in Alexandria. The it is still present and able to stage needed to force Iran to agree to opposition group. The attack on attacks left at least 45 people dead deadly attacks,” security analyst stricter guidelines preventing it the meeting in June was prevented and more than 125 injured. Gamal Eddine Mazloum said. from developing nuclear weapons by a joint intelligence operation Cairo The November 2 attack took The Egyptian Army has been and to end aggressive policies in conducted by France, Belgium and place approximately 260km south involved in an all-out campaign the Middle East and beyond. Germany. ear was rife among Egypt’s of Cairo, near the site of an attack against ISIS in Sinai since Feb- Iran has been reaching out to The European Union has not an- Christian minority after by ISIS on a bus carrying Christian ruary. The military often issues neighbouring countries and Eu- nounced whether it will sanction unidentified attackerspilgrims travelling to the same statement reporting gains against rope to counter Trump’s policy. Iran because of the plots in Den- F killed seven Christians monastery on May 26. That attack the terrorist organisation in its “The cornerstone in Iran’s efforts mark and France. and wounded at least 15 others left 29 Christians dead and 24 oth- stronghold in North Sinai. On No- to skirt US sanctions is its ties with The Wall Street Journal, in an who were on a bus travelling to ers injured. vember 1, the army said that it had its neighbours,” Ali Vaez, director editorial, accused Europe of down- a desert monastery near Minya killed 18 ISIS members. However, of the Iran Project at the Interna- playing the Iranian threat. “Even province. ISIS still shows it can be deadly. tional Crisis Group in Washington, as Iranian hit squads are setting up Around 25 Christians were en ISIS, which receives one The main road to the Saint Sam- said via e-mail. shop across the continent, the Eu- route to the Monastery of Saint deadly blow after another at uel the Confessor monastery had The US administration has found ropean Union is displaying a fun- Samuel the Confessor near Min- the hands of Egyptian been closed by police since May’s it hard to forge a broad interna- damental lack of seriousness about ya on November 2 from Sohag troops in Sinai, wants to attack. To reach the monastery, tional alliance to stop Iran’s oil a country uninterested in distinc- province when their bus was am- show that it is capable of pilgrims have been using side exports, which account for 82% tions between bombs, missiles and bushed. roads in the desert. of all Iranian exports, said Trading assassinations,” the editorial said. The Islamic State (ISIS) claimed action. “This made it easy for the mili- Economics, an economic research Some experts do not exclude the responsibility for the attack. tants to target them and difficult company. Big buyers of Iranian likelihood of Iranian foul play con- “There is a high degree of fear Dozens of Christians took to the for police to come to their rescue,” crude, such as China, India and tinuing in Europe while the United among the Christians,” said Polis streets in Minya to protest the at- Mazloum said. Turkey, are reluctant to stop their States pursues its pressures. “If Halim, spokesman of the Coptic tack and demand retaliation. Halim said the Coptic Ortho- imports altogether. I had to bet, all these things will Orthodox Church. “Some peo- Egyptian President Abdel Fat- dox Church would demand addi- That reluctance led the United happen — the US will tighten the ple are even afraid to go to the tah al-Sisi, vowed to continue the tional security measures around States to grant waivers to eight screws, the Iranians will do more churches for prayer.” country’s war against terrorism. churches. importers of Iranian oil, which things that are worrying to the Copts, who make up approxi- “This attack would but strength- “We will especially demand received permission to keep buy- Trump administration and the mately 10% of Egypt’s popula- en our nation’s resolve to move more protection for the monas- ing from Tehran without penalty. two sides will talk,” Jon Alterman, tion, have been the target of ISIS ahead with its battle for construc- teries in the desert,” Halim said. The Trump administration did not an expert at the Centre for Strate- attacks for several years. tion,” he posted on Twitter. “We are badly in need of more po- name the countries but reports gic and International Studies told In February 2017, ISIS Sinai Security analysts said ISIS, lice presence on roads leading to said India, Turkey, South Korea, Reuters. called for attacks against Chris- which receives one deadly blow the monasteries.” Japan and Iraq were on the list. tians. On April 9, the terrorist after another at the hands of Iranian First Vice-President Thomas Seibert is an Arab Weekly group claimed responsibility for Egyptian troops in Sinai, wants to Ahmed Megahid is an Egyptian Es’haq Jahangiri, however, was correspondent. bombing a church in the Nile Del- show that it is capable of action. reporter in Cairo. quoted by state media as saying P2-3,6 ta city of Tanta and another out- “ISIS only wants to show that P20 2 November 4, 2018 Cover Story Iran

In hot water. Gas flares from an oil production platform at the Soroush oil fields south of Tehran. (Reuters) Washington fleshes out sanctions against Iran, issues no waiver to EU

Thomas Frank Officials and news reports indi- adviser, said in speech October 31. withdrawing the United States pushing back on the Iranian regime cated the countries receiving waiv- Apparently in a reference to Iraq from the nuclear deal negotiated in an effort to change its behaviour ers from sanctions would likely and Turkey, Bolton said US offi- by his predecessor Barack Obama. by assisting and ensuring that there Washington include US allies India, Iraq, Italy, cials understand that “a number of The accord, known as the Joint is sufficient crude oil in the mar- Japan and South Korea. The United countries immediately surround- Comprehensive Plan of Action, ketplace — for all the crude oil that he United States plans to al- States is considering waiving sanc- ing Iran… may not be able to go waived and lifted sanctions against the Iranian regime will no longer low eight countries to tem- tions for China, which is the larg- all the way to zero [Iranian oil im- Iran in exchange for Tehran halting be able to sell in order to fund its porarily continue to import est importer of Iranian crude, and ports] immediately.” its programme to develop nuclear terror campaign across the world,” T Iranian oil without facing Turkey. US State Department Deputy weapons. Pompeo said. US sanctions, US officials said. The Economic Times newspaper Press Secretary Robert Palladino on Pompeo predicted that the Ira- The oil and financial sanctions US Secretary of State Mike reported that the United States had November 1 said US officials “are nian regime would face enormous will cause much more harm to the Pompeo did not name the coun- agreed to let India import substan- prepared to work with countries pressure when the oil-sector sanc- Iranian economy than sanctions tries exempted from US sanctions tial amounts of Iranian oil until that are reducing their imports on tions resumed. “I’m convinced the United States reinstated in Au- aimed at depriving Iran of oil rev- March. India and China buy more a case-by-case basis. We have an these sanctions are going to have gust that prohibit Iran from using enue though he did say the Euro- than half of the 1.8 million barrels internal process to consider signifi- an enormous impact on the Ira- US dollars and bar purchases of pean Union would not receive a per day of oil that Iran exports, the cant reduction exceptions for indi- nian leadership,” Pompeo said in a Iranian goods such as automobiles waiver. Pompeo said countries re- US Energy Department said. vidual countries.” November 1 interview on the Lars and metals. ceiving waivers tried to eliminate Several countries lobbied the Palladino added that the United Larson radio programme. “Nearly Iranian oil exports and produc- Iranian oil imports but could not Trump administration heavily for States “is in the middle of an inter- every significant European com- tion have fallen sharply since the do so. a waiver from US sanctions, con- nal process to consider significant pany has already fled Iran.” United States said it was withdraw- Iranian banks designated by the tending that their economies can- reduction exemptions for individ- Pompeo waived off recent criti- ing from the Iran nuclear deal and United States will be cut off “as not function if they cut all pur- ual countries.” cism by Iranian Foreign Minister are likely to continue to decline, soon as technologically feasible” chases of Iranian oil or are hit with The US sanctions bar any country Mohammad Javad Zarif, who told the US Energy Department said. from a global system called SWIFT US sanctions that include losing ac- that imports Iranian oil or invests CBS News on October 28 that US Iran’s total oil exports fell from 2.7 that oversees international bank cess to the US banking system and in Iran from doing business in the support for Saudi Arabia and Is- million barrels per day in June to transfers, US Treasury Secretary commercial market. United States and from using US rael “has enabled them to carry out 1.9 million barrels a day in Septem- Steven Mnuchin said. “Humanitar- “We want to achieve maximum dollars for international transac- atrocities that would not have hap- ber, an Energy Department report ian transactions” involving banks pressure [on Iran] but don’t want tions. pened had there not existed this stated. not designated by the United States to harm friends and allies and we The reinstatement is the final blanket support, blind support.” will be allowed to continue using are working our way through that,” step of a process that began in May “The kingdom of Saudi Arabia Thomas Frank is an Arab Weekly SWIFT, Mnuchin added. John Bolton, US national security when Trump announced he was has been a great partner with us in correspondent in Washington. Viewpoint The Iranian regime’s predicament at home

he second instalment the world and punish it by besieg- These sanctions aim at nothing less path for us: either we keep silent or of US sanctions has ing it and drowning it in endless than to reduce Iran’s oil exports to violently repress them. In the lat- gone into effect against crises, revolts and sit-ins? Surely, by zero to push its regime to abandon ter case, it won’t be the end of the Ibrahim Zobeidi the Iranian economy, constantly threatening everybody’s its aggressive policies towards its road,” Ranani wrote. which is exhausted and interests in Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, neighbours and the world, hoping When it is known that 40 million heavily laden with high Iraq and even Iran itself, the Iranian against hope that it will regain some of the 80 million Iranian citizens Tunemployment, currency devalu- regime will end up biting its own semblance of sanity. live below the poverty line, as ation and tonnes of the regime’s tail. The best indication of the extent stated in figures revealed by Parviz daily, monthly and annual financial Iranian Foreign Minister Moham- of the Iranian regime’s predicament Fattah, head of Imam Khomeini commitments to its proxy militias, mad Javad Zarif admitted that US is the alert sounded by former Irani- Relief Foundation, there is a clear parties and propaganda outlets sanctions were going to hurt Iran’s an President Mohammad Khatami. picture of the future reserved for in Yemen, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, economy but, then, like all the He says there is “the possibility for the Iranian regime. Afghanistan and many others on other stubborn heads of the regime, the occurrence of social movements Half of the poor in Iran — 20 God’s vast land. he only knows how to be defiant pushing for a regime change in case million hungry and barefooted The thing is, the Iranian regime and warned Washington that its Iranian citizens become convinced people — had already revolted. The cannot afford to lose its proxies sanctions were useless. The man that the reforms they are expecting regime’s repressive campaign had and agents. Imagine the volume must be sleeping with both legs in will not be achieved.” He frankly killed, arrested or silenced half of of expenditures that the Iranian the burning sun. Surely, he must states that “the regime’s mistakes, them. I’m sure the remaining 10 regime devotes to lighting fires have read, heard and seen that the if they are not corrected, will turn million poor are adamant on pursu- in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, Trump administration has con- criticism into opposition and then ing their revolution and I’m sure Sudan, Bahrain, et cetera. Indeed, vinced three of Iran’s biggest clients who knows what might happen.” that millions more will join them. fomenting sectarian strife, wars and — India, China and Turkey — to stop One day before Khatami issued Some armed factions from the equipping and training thousands importing Iranian oil. his warning, Mohsen Ranani, a regime itself might even rebel in of terrorists, both Sunnis and Shias, Iranian satellite channels or Arab professor of economics at the solidarity with the poor and the The ruling regime require huge funds. channels with an Iranian bent only University of Isfahan, warned of hungry. At that moment, the ruling will have to either What kind of effect does this broadcast stories of the glorious an impending revolution in an regime will have to either remove remove itself from criminal waste of resources have on victories and achievements of the article he posted on social media itself from power or stand to be the lives of Iranian citizens? Iranian regime. The reality in Iran is under the title of “The Revolt of the mercilessly removed by the deluge power or stand to be Above all, can someone show completely different. Barefooted.” He was referring to the of angry mobs. mercilessly removed the national or religious necessity Protests and sit-ins have become poor Iranians whose numbers are that drives the stubborn and vain commonplace and are likely to on the rise day after day. Ibrahim Zobeidi is an Iraqi writer by the deluge of turbaned heads of the Iranian re- increase as the second round of “When the poor and the bare- and US publisher of The Arab angry mobs. gime to butt heads with the rest of US sanctions begin to show effect. footed revolt, there will be only one Weekly. November 4, 2018 3 Cover Story Iran Denmark threatens to retaliate over Iranian plot The Arab Weekly staff mark can in no way accept that peo- ple with ties to Iran’s intelligence service plot attacks against people London in Denmark,” Danish Foreign Af- fairs Minister Andres Samuelsen enmark accused Iran of said. “It is the Iranian government, plotting attacks on Iranian it is the Iranian state that is behind” exiles in the Scandinavian the suspected plot. D country and threatened to Tehran accused Denmark, the take retaliatory measures, includ- Netherlands and Britain in Septem- ing economic sanctions, against ber of “hosting several members of Sounding the sirens. Danish Foreign Minister Anders Samuelsen gives a news conference in Tehran. the terrorist group” that it alleged Copenhagen, on October 30. (AFP) “There is a need to show Iran was behind an attack on a military that we are well aware of what took parade in Ahvaz, Iran, that killed place and that we don’t accept it,” 25 people. Tehran accused Ahwazi icy spokeswoman Maja Kocijancic. the United States to impose its sec- against our Arab Ahwazi people Danish Prime Minister Lars Lokke separatists, the Islamic State, Gulf The United States also expressed ond set of sanctions against Tehran and its activists, especially since Rasmussen said. states and the United States of be- support for Denmark. “We congrat- on November 4, which the Europe- our cause and the struggle of our The head of Denmark’s intel- ing involved in that attack. ulate the government of Denmark ans oppose. people have now escalated consid- ligence service PET, Finn Borch Rasmussen said while Copenha- on its arrest of an Iranian regime as- “Sanctions could be done in a erably but certainly this will not Andersen, said the foiled plot was gen backed the Iran nuclear accord, sassin. For nearly 40 years, Europe delicate way in which individuals discourage the movement of the directed against three Iranians which the United States has pulled has been the target of Iran-spon- are targeted rather than the coun- struggle and the rest of our organi- suspected of belonging to the Arab out from in May, “it is absolutely sored terrorist attacks. We call on try itself but this incident makes it sations from going forward to lift Struggle Movement for the Libera- crucial that the Iranians also un- our allies and partners to confront harder for the EU and the E3 [Brit- the injustice and oppression of our tion of Ahvaz. derstand that the deal cannot be a the full range of Iran’s threats to ain, France and Germany] to make people and their right to self-deter- Swedish authorities arrested a carte blanche for the kind of activi- peace and security,” US Secretary of their case to defend the deal,” mination,” Yaquob Hurr al-Tisteri, Norwegian of Iranian origin on Oc- ties we have witnessed.” State Mike Pompeo wrote on Twit- Sanam Vakil, a fellow at the Royal spokesman of the Arab Struggle tober 21 for his alleged involvement Samuelsen said: “Denmark will ter. Institute of International Affairs in Movement for the Liberation of in planning the attacks. now push for a discussion in the This is not the first time that Iran London, told the Washington Post. Ahwaz, told Al Arabiya English. Iran denied the allegations and European Union on the need for has been accused of seeking to as- “It puts them into an uncomfort- “The failed operation that was summoned the Danish ambassador further sanctions against Iran.” sassinate opposition in Europe. able position: They will have to put revealed… is a consistent Iranian to Tehran. “This is a continuation The European Union said it France said Iran’s Ministry of Intel- out a strong message to Iran whilst approach towards the demands of enemies’ plots to damage Iranian would stand by Denmark in its spat ligence was behind a foiled bomb- at the same time trying to keep the of our fair Ahwazi people and the relations with Europe at this critical with Iran. “We deplore any threat ing attack that targeted an Iranian nuclear deal alive.” demands of other non-Persian time,” said Iranian Foreign Ministry to EU security and take every inci- opposition group near Paris in June. Iran’s exiled opposition figures peoples and once again shows that spokesman Bahram Qasemi. dent extremely seriously and there- Observers said any attacks would said they would not be intimidated the Iranian state has no solutions Denmark recalled its ambassador fore we stand in solidarity with the invite EU sanctions against individ- by the alleged assassination threats. other than terrorism against just to Tehran for consultation. “Den- member state,” said EU foreign pol- ual Iranians and help the case for “Iran has never stopped its plots demands.” Viewpoint Tehran’s terror reaches the shores of Denmark

ran has a long history of 30s. He is said to have achieved espionage and even assas- a residence permit — possibly sination of political oppo- political asylum — in Norway by Ali Alfoneh nents abroad. For some time, claiming he was opposed to the however, while the espio- regime in Iran. He has a “technical nage continued, the regime education” from Iran and worked Iappeared to have abandoned the with different companies in the IT practice of political assassinations. sector in Norway. Members of the opposition never He attracted the interest of Dan- posed a real threat to the regime in ish police when he photographed Tehran and the diplomatic cost of ASMLA’s small office from a car such operations was too high. with Swedish registration plates. However, the arrest of an He shook off the Danish police Iranian/Norwegian dual national tailing him but was apprehended in Sweden indicates a change in in Sweden. calculations and mode of opera- It is not yet known which Iranian tion by some group in Tehran. intelligence service the Iranian/ On September 28, Danish police Norwegian dual national was started a manhunt that paralysed working for. However, consider- the country because the eastern ing the IRGC was targeted in the island of Zealand, home to Copen- Ahvaz terror attack, the suspect hagen, was cut off. Danish police probably cooperates with the IRGC said they were looking for a black Intelligence Organisation. This Swedish-registered car with “pos- intelligence outfit’s calculations sibly three people onboard” in con- may differ from those of the more nection with “serious criminality.” professional Ministry of Intelli- A few days later, it became clear gence and Security (MOIS). that Danish police expected the The MOIS has, from the mid- imminent assassination or kidnap- 1990s, generally shied from the ping by Iranian agents of an indi- assassination of Iranians abroad vidual known by the pseudonym but the IRGC Intelligence Organi- Yaquob Hurr al-Tisteri. sation is just asserting itself as the The target, who lives in Ringsted, premier agent of extraterritorial 60km south-west of Copenhagen, assassinations. is the spokesman of the secession- In the crosshairs. A Danish policeman stands guard outside a Had the IRGC Intelligence assas- ist Arab Struggle Movement for the building in Copenhagen. (AFP) sinated Tisteri and his associates, Liberation of Ahwaz (ASMLA). it would have accomplished two Tisteri publicly defended the things: intimidating the Iranian September 22 terrorist attack Islamic Republic, to the extent that news conference, Danish Security opposition at home and embar- against an Iranian military parade ordinary citizens are not harmed.” and Intelligence Service chief Finn rassing President Hassan Rohani Regardless of which in Ahvaz. In an interview with The other organisation that Borch Andersen said an arrest had and his technocratic government Iran International TV in London, claimed responsibility for the at- been made in Gothenburg, Swe- abroad. agency was behind Tisteri credited the Ahvaz National tack was the Islamic State (ISIS). den. Andersen said the individual In any case, regardless of which the suspected terror Resistance (ANR) with the attack. On September 23, ISIS released had been arrested on suspicion agency was behind the suspected plot in Denmark, He said the Ahvaz independence a video allegedly showing three of helping an unspecified Iranian terror plot in Denmark, Europe movement endorsed “armed perpetrators on their way to the intelligence service “to act in Den- must brace itself for more assas- Europe must brace struggle against the military and parade, which largely discredits mark” and for alleged involvement sination attempts. itself for more legitimate targets, including oil Tisteri’s claim on behalf of the in a plot to assassinate members of pipelines and facilities, the [Is- Ahvazi group. the ASMLA. Ali Alfoneh is a visiting scholar at assassination lamic Revolutionary Guard Corps] Authorities in Denmark remain Norway’s TV2 reported that the Arab Gulf States Institute in attempts. IRGC and military forces of the tight-lipped but, in an October 30 the arrested man is a father in his Washington. 4 November 4, 2018 News & Analysis Gulf Cautious GCC support to Oman over Mideast initiatives

The Arab Weekly staff territories. “The Palestinians will never en- joy security and the entire Arab London region will not settle and terrorism will not end,” he said, adding that t appears Oman is about to the path of peace in the Palestinian try to tackle one of the most territories will see global support. complex and long-standing “An independent Palestinian I disputes of modern times: state is a strategic demand with- the Arab-Israeli conflict, with the out which stability can never be Trump administration’s yet-to- achieved,” he said. “We are not be-revealed “deal of the century” saying that the road is now easy likely to factor in. and paved with flowers but our pri- In an unannounced visit, Israeli ority is to put an end to the conflict Prime Minister Binyamin Netan- and move to a new world.” yahu travelled to Muscat, where he Host Bahrain praised the Omani met with Omani Sultan Qaboos bin steps to secure Israeli-Palestinian Said Al Said, the first such meeting peace. of its kind in more than 20 years. “We have never ever questioned Netanyahu, whose high-profile the wisdom and farsightedness of entourage included Mossad Direc- His Majesty Sultan Qaboos in try- tor Yossi Cohen, discussed with ing to help and do their part in try- Sultan Qaboos “ways to advance ing to reach a solution for this [Pal- the peace process in the Middle estinian-Israeli] issue,” Bahraini East,” Omani reports stated. Foreign Minister Sheikh Khalid The visit, which was at the invi- bin Ahmed al-Khalifa said at the tation of Sultan Qaboos, involved conference. “We look forward to the two leaders exchanging views Sultan Qaboos succeeding in his ef- on “a number of regional issues of fort.” common concern.” Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al- The vagueness in the official Jubeir supported the Omani initia- statement from both sides has tive and said Riyadh believed the been a source of speculation. Some key to normalising relations with US news outlets, including the Israel is through the peace process. New York Times, supported the Israel has full diplomatic rela- theory that the motivation from tions with only Egypt and Jordan the Israeli side was having “Oman among Arab countries. as a conduit to Tehran.” Netanyahu is the first Israeli Rare visit. Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu (L) walks with Omani Sultan Qaboos bin Said Netanyahu in April said Israeli prime minister to visit Oman in Al Said. (Office of Israeli Prime Minister) contacts with moderate Arab coun- decades. In 1996, then-Prime Min- tries were developing “because ister Shimon Peres went to Oman of our common concern with Iran to open the Israeli trade represent- Abbas, who visited Oman a few among the Gulf Cooperation Coun- sonally deliver a letter from Sultan and its aggressive designs.” ative’s office in Muscat. days before Netanyahu, was sup- cil members, one that has at times Qaboos to Abbas on Netanyahu’s “Israel is a state present in the His predecessor, Yitzhak Rabin, portive of the Omani drive. Uni- put it at odds with other members. visit. region and we all understand this. had made the first trip by an Israeli dentified sources told the news- In 2014, officials in the Gulf were Iranian Foreign Ministry spokes- The world is also aware of this and prime minister to Oman in 1994. paper that Abbas supports any taken by surprise over news that man Bahram Qassemi blasted the maybe it is time for Israel to be On his visit on October 23, Net- intervention that could save the Muscat secretly brokered talks be- Netanyahu visit to Oman, saying treated the same [as other states] anyahu was accompanied by sen- situation. However, the Palestin- tween the United States and Iran the Israeli prime minister “seeks to and to also bear the same obliga- ior officials, including the head of ian sources also said they were that led to the nuclear agreement divide Muslim countries.” tions,” Omani Foreign Minister Yu- the Mossad intelligence agency pessimistic about a breakthrough between Tehran and world pow- Iran extended an invitation to suf bin Alawi bin Abdullah said at a and his national security adviser. considering the complexities of ers. Sultan Qaboos’s special repre- conference October 27 in Bahrain. The London-based pan-Arab dai- the issue. Oman appears to have started sentative, Deputy Prime Minister Bin Alawi also said a solution ly Asharq Al-Awsat reported that Oman is known for having the the ball rolling with bin Alawi visit- Sayyid Asa’ad bin Tariq Al Said, to must be reached in the Palestinian Palestinian President Mahmoud most independent foreign policy ing Ramallah on October 31 to per- visit Tehran.

Viewpoint Netanyahu’s visit to Muscat is no surprise

sraeli Prime Minister Biny- Al Said. There has been talk of an of peace. US Defence Secretary James Mat- amin Netanyahu’s visit to Iranian connection or a link with There is no mystery because tis’s statement about a direct US Muscat was a media event the Palestinian question. Some Israel has a say in Syria’s fate. It is intervention in Yemen portends Mohamad Kawas that deserved all the attention claimed symptoms of normalisa- dictating its conditions for posi- dispossessing Tehran of its Yemeni it received but it is hardly sur- tion with Israel were taking root in tioning along the border between card. prising, so let’s stop pretend- the Arabian Gulf. the two countries while exerting Iran will not be able to withstand Iing to be astonished. What is known is that Oman painful military pressure on Ira- international US-led pressures. During the last decades, top is not playing a mediating role nian positions in Syria, despite the It can expect much pain that will Israeli officials, such as Yitzhak in anything. Omani Minister of strain it causes in relations with inevitably lead to major transfor- Rabin and Shimon Peres, visited Foreign Affairs Yusuf bin Alawi bin Moscow. mations and new negotiations. Oman. There are reports of visits Abdullah said Muscat is trying to There is no surprise because, The region seems to be on the by Israeli officials to other Arab facilitate what other parties want. whether people in the region like it brink of major decisions and capitals at different times and on In other words, interests behind or not, Israel is a key player in the crucial changes in the approaches different occasions and each time the scenes need to communicate game of stability and tension in the to many issues. A Turkish-Rus- those trips kicked up a storm of with each other — through Oman Middle East. Within the frame- sian-German-French summit in controversy. Some of the ensuing of course. work of the Arab Peace Initiative Istanbul did not include Iran. A debates were useful but most were The real question is: Who are adopted by the Arab League in settlement in Syria sounds im- just political auctions stuffed with these actors and what are these 2002, communication with Israeli minent. Meetings in London of populist slogans meant for settling interests? leaders was permissible. the Mini-Group for Syria reveal old scores between various Arab Israeli officials have visited sev- Hours after the arrival of Sultan that the world is positioning itself capitals. eral Arab capitals since the Madrid Qaboos’s envoy to Ramallah to pressure Russia as the world In the Arab world, Oman has Conference, Camp David, Oslo and and the delivery of the sultan’s refuses to let a settlement in Syria always had its own peculiar out- Wadi Araba. Arab capitals have message to Palestinian President depend on the wishes of the Syrian look on things. Muscat has taken framed the visits in different ways Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian regime. a different stand on the burning — at times as “peace efforts” or be- National Council announced its It may be discovered that Netan- issues of the Arab world and has cause the visitors were part of im- hard-line decisions: the PLO with- yahu’s visit to Muscat is a tiny de- shown great wisdom and acumen. portant international delegations draws from its agreements with tail in a vast map about to witness Oman, for example, never resorted or simply “to please Washington,” the occupation authorities; the major transformations. The visit to pompous discourse such as to borrow the phrase of former recognition of the State of Israel took place under the auspices of vowing “to throw Israel back to the Qatari Prime Minister Hamad bin is suspended; and the Palestinian the United States and approved by sea” and has adopted a realistic Jassim bin Jaber al-Thani. Authority ceases all security coor- Gulf states. The entire region took approach to issues. Other Arab Muscat never did that, never dination with Israel. notice. Tehran’s “affectionate” res- countries only recently discovered feeling compelled to invent jus- The two events may be unre- ervation about the event indicates this approach. tifications and reasons, so much lated but, then again, they might its concern about its own crisis. Muscat never wavered on issues so that bin Alawi, commenting on turn out to be tightly connected. Anyone contemplating the vari- Anyone agreed upon collectively by Arab Netanyahu’s visit and its timing, Whatever was being cooked up has ous “thorny knots” in the region countries. Oman is part of the said that it was “not strange.” necessitated a Palestinian escala- will conclude that the “owners” contemplating the Arab League and it abides by the “Not strange,” indeed. Hamas in tion against developments brewing of these knots accept to intersect various “thorny league’s literature, choices and the Gaza Strip is seeking, through in Muscat. in Muscat, despite each one’s decisions. When Arab leaders fell Egyptian mediation, a long-term Netanyahu’s visit was a few days different agenda. Therefore, it is knots” in the region prey to their own rigid political truce with Israel. The matter is be- before the second round of US “not surprising” that Oman should will conclude that the cant, Muscat was ready to throw ing conducted in accordance with sanctions against Iran went into launch another workshop in which “owners” of these them a political lifeline to elimi- overt communications between effect. The region is entering an era it does not play the role of a media- nate dead ends and allow the Arab Israel and Qatar, not to mention that requires close monitoring. tor but rather that of a vital facilita- knots accept to narrative to continue without full diplomatic relations between Kuwaiti Emir Sabah Ahmad tor for connections that this party intersect in Muscat, embarrassing the narrator. Tel Aviv and Ankara. We should al-Jaber al-Sabah hinted that the or the other ardently desires. There is speculation about the also not forget Egyptian-Israeli region is heading towards devel- despite each one’s reasons for Netanyahu’s meet- communications concerning Gaza opments quite different from the Mohamad Kawas is a Lebanese different agenda. ing with Sultan Qaboos bin Said in times of war as well as in times ones that preceded the sanctions. writer. November 4, 2018 5 Spotlight Regional Security

Geostrategic position draws foreign powers to Djibouti

Djibouti is willing to host foreign militaries because they generate more than $300 million in an- John C.K. Daly nual income. For NATO countries, a presence in Djibouti provides maritime security and a base for combating regional militant threats, even though piracy off the or a century after coast of Somalia fell sharply from the Napoleonic wars, 2012-17. While Japan and China Europe pursued what share those concerns, Beijing seeks became known as the to incorporate Djibouti as a major “scramble for Africa.” regional trade hub in its Belt and After the second world Road Initiative. Fwar, political sovereignty de- China is Africa’s primary source volved to 54 countries from Egypt of foreign direct investment (FDI.) to South Africa but, throughout China is Africa’s largest-trading Africa, foreign nations sought to partner, and in 2015, Beijing said it maintain economic influence and would invest $60 billion in infra- military access. structure projects there. For the latter, the pre-eminent In July, Djibouti began the first locale is Djibouti, Africa’s third phase of a $3.5 billion free trade smallest country. At 23,200 sq.km zone in which China Merchants and with fewer than 1 million Group and Dalian Port Authority citizens, Djibouti is valued not for have a stake. Djibouti has bor- its resources but its geostrategic rowed nearly $957 million from the position. Bordered by Eritrea to Export-Import Bank of China to the north, Ethiopia in the west and finance several projects, a sum that south and Somalia to the south- dwarfs all other FDI. east, Djibouti’s eastern maritime Djibouti’s future will probably border abuts the Red Sea and the be marked by many of the same Gulf of Aden. concerns that affect it today: pov- Between Djibouti and Yemen lies erty, terrorism, political fragility the Bab el Mandeb Strait, a 19km- and rising superpower tensions. wide passage through which more Meanwhile, its debt totals 84% of than 4.8 million barrels per day of GDP, most of it to China. crude oil and refined petroleum Strategic gamble. A file picture shows a Dutch warship at the French military base in Djibouti. (AFP) A century ago, the first world war products flow. had a profound effect on Africa. It’s Djibouti hosts more foreign mili- of the largest such contingents France and the United States, to increasingly likely the continent tary bases than any other country, outside France. Rising piracy and have a base in Djibouti. may again be rocked by distant with French, US, Italian, Chinese terrorism in the Horn of Africa Asian nations have established events. The Trump administration and Japanese forces maintaining have slowly drawn other foreign military presences in the Horn has retreated from a liberal agenda permanent presence there. After militaries to Djibouti. of Africa. In July 2011, the Japan and raised tensions with China to Djibouti gained independence in The year after the 9/11 attacks, Self-Defence Forces (SDF) opened an unprecedented level. 1997, French troops remained. Djibouti leased Camp Lemonnier a base in Djibouti. As Japan’s first With China’s overseas military There are approximately 1,500 to the United States. It houses the full-scale, long-term overseas base, expansion and advocacy of a new French personnel in Djibouti, one US Africa Command’s (AFRICOM) it has 600 members of Japan’s Mar- world order, Djibouti’s congested Combined Joint Task Force-Horn itime SDF. Last year, China opened territory could become a collision of Africa. Camp Lemonnier is the its People’s Liberation Army (PLA) point in a new scramble for Africa. With China’s overseas military only permanent US military base in Support Base in Djibouti at a cost Its military tenants, especially expansion and advocacy of a Africa. Every other African country of $590 million. China’s first over- China, which stands to lose the declined to house AFRICOM, con- seas military base is operated by most, will seek to protect their new world order, Djibouti’s sidered politically radioactive. the PLA Navy. investments in the country. congested territory could Since October 2013, Italy has Djibouti is strategically located, maintained a base in Djibouti with of course, but the question re- John C.K. Daly is a become a collision point in a 300 personnel. That makes Italy mains: Why the massive military Washington-based specialist on new scramble for Africa. the third NATO member, joining presence in north-eastern Africa? Russian and post-Soviet affairs. Russia, China tussle reflects struggle for influence in the region

Since the spring of 2017, Ros- gy exports. Because Rosneft has As Western tourists recover their neft has paid an estimated $3.5 a 30% stake in the large offshore Russia’s appetite for Luxor and Aswan, billion to the Kurdistan adminis- Egyptian gas Zohr field, that leveraging of Chinese visitors are more than Francis Ghilès tration: $400 million to develop would also allow the company to energy as a welcome. Chinese companies five exploration blocks, $1.8 compete in the European market commercial have long been active in Algeria. billion for control of the region’s with its domestic rival Gazprom means to The trend of greater Chinese eco- export pipeline and a $1.2 billion Net. nomic presence across the Middle loan in prepayment for oil pro- US strategy is left in shreds, achieve its East is there for all to see. ore than in any duced by companies other than so is the European Union’s as geopolitical In July, Djibouti started the first other country, Rosneft. This financial lifeline Russia builds ties with a broad priorities is phase of a $3.5 billion free trade regional and for the region’s government has range of mutually incompatible Moscow’s zone in which China Merchants global powers infuriated Bagdad but protests countries, including Saudi Ara- response to Group and Dalian Port Author- are establishing by the Iraqi government to Rus- bia, Iran, Turkey and Qatar. the United ity have a stake, which DP World military bases in sia have been met with blank Italy’s influence in eastern States’ said violates its 30-year exclusive MDjibouti. stares. Libya and important weapons diminishing contract. Earlier this year, Dji- The tussle offers a microcosm If Rosneft goes ahead with ties with Algeria are turning it influence in bouti took control of the Red Sea of a much larger struggle for the gas cooperation agreement into an indispensable partner. the region. container port of Doraleh from influence on the Red Sea and the Sechin signed with the Kurd- The West seems to have lost the Dubai-based ports operator. Gulf of Aden, which stretches istan Regional Government in any sense of the strategic game Also in the Horn of Africa, it is across the Middle East to Kurdis- May, that would offer ample it played so ruthlessly in the worth noting that the decision of tan, Egypt and Algeria. opportunities for Russia in the region for two centuries. Africa’s youngest leader, 42-year- Russia’s state-owned oil com- region, putting it at the centre of China, meanwhile, is stead- old Ethiopian Prime Minister pany Rosneft has emerged as talks between Erbil and Bagdad. ily reinforcing its economic Abiy Ahmed, to turn his country Iraqi Kurdistan’s single biggest fi- Russia’s leveraging of en- relations with Egypt. Chinese upside down, release political nancier. Ignoring fears of conflict ergy as a commercial means to companies have made a cumula- prisoners, privatise many state with the government in Bagdad achieve its geopolitical priori- tive investment in Egypt of $24.3 companies and conclude peace and criticism from Western pow- ties is Moscow’s response to the billion, fDi Intelligence reports. with Eritrea, ending a 20-year ers, Igor Sechin, Rosneft CEO and United States’ diminishing influ- That figure that should include war, has given this thriving close confidant of Russian Presi- ence in the region. Kurdistan has a $20 billion investment in the economy access to Eritrean ports. dent Vladimir Putin, has gained a been a close ally of the United planned administrative capi- Saudi Arabia and the United major foothold in Erbil. States but it is worth remember- tal in the desert east of Cairo. Arab Emirates are vying for influ- The project to pump 10,000 ing that when Kurdistan had Chinese companies are to build a ence in Ethiopia, which has taken barrels of crude oil per day by an independence referendum rail link to the capital and are ex- a 19% stake in the Somali port of the end of the year, which is in September 2017, Bagdad sent panding the industrial zone near Berbera and is planning to take only 0.2% of the project’s daily troops to seize control of the ma- the Red Sea port of Ain Sokhna. stakes in Port Sudan and Djibouti. production, to Ceyhan on Tur- jor Kurdish oil fields, disrupting Whatever the doubts ex- China last year completed a $4 key’s Mediterranean coast looks the region’s critical oil produc- pressed by observers about the billion railway that links Addis symbolic but it offers Russia an tion and exports. viability of projects linked with Ababa to the port of Djibouti. It important lever in relations be- The United States, the Euro- China’s very ambitious Belt and handles 90% of Ethiopia’s trade. tween Erbil and Bagdad. pean Union and Turkey criti- Road Initiative and the result- American influence is fading cised the referendum but not so ant increase in debts to Beijing away here as new actors emerge, Russia. by recipient countries, Chinese not least Russia and, even more The trend of greater Were Rosneft to go ahead ambitions are huge. important, China. Chinese economic with a pipeline that could carry In Egypt, they are matched by billions of cubic metres of gas the number of Chinese visitors Francis Ghilès is an associate presence across the Middle to Turkey and Europe, Russia to the country, which more than fellow at the Barcelona Centre for East is there for all to see. would control the region’s ener- doubled to 300,000 last year. International Affairs. 6 November 4, 2018 Opinion

Editorial Iran’s plots in Europe

ranian President Hassan Rohani has warned the Iranian public of more hardship to come. “The situation was hard for people in the recent months and it may be hard in the next several months, too,” he said during a televised cabinet meeting. IThe US administration’s new wave of sanctions, targeting the Iranian oil sector, is one of the factors that can make Rohani’s predictions come true. You would think Iran’s rulers would have figured out a basic fact: They cannot afford strained relations with any part of the world, much less Europe, because that would make Iran’s international isolation worse. Instead, Tehran is continuing its terror plots against members of the Iranian opposition on European soil. After the foiled bombing plot against an Iranian opposition gathering in June, Denmark announced it had aborted an Iranian covert operation to assassinate dissidents. Danish security officials said a Norwegian national of Iranian origin was arrested October 21 on suspicion of involvement in an assassina- tion plot against members of the Arab Struggle Movement for the Liberation of Ahvaz © Yaser Ahmed for The Arab Weekly (ASMLA). He was arrested near Copenhagen. The plot seems to have been meant to retaliate against the ASMLA movement for the September 22 attack on a military parade in the Kuwait’s other war Iranian city of Ahvaz. This though it was the Islamic State that claimed responsibility for the terrorist shooting and not the Ahvazis. Khairallah Khairallah In the case of Iran’s Ahvaz region, plots against opposition activists abroad are being There seems to be another war going on in Kuwait, quite different from military coupled with sweeping arrests at home. campaigns. That war is called fortifying Kuwait’s internal stability. “The scale of arrests in recent weeks is deeply alarming,” said Philip Luther, Amnesty o one in Kuwait is to send messages, both internal- in the region on the other. Such International’s research and advocacy director fond of the shout- ly and externally, concerning the discipline is what Sheikh Sabah for the Middle East and North Africa. “The ing matches tactic protective shield of the Kuwaiti asked for when he met with timing suggests that the Iranian authorities are in approaching experience — freedom and hu- Speaker of Kuwait’s National As- using the attack in Ahvaz as an excuse to lash political affairs. man rights. sembly Marzouq al-Ghanim and out against members of the Ahvazi Arab ethnic Even those who When Sheikh Sabah received other representatives. He urged minority, including civil society and political Nhave been convicted and exiled the president and members of them to pay close attention to activists, in order to crush dissent in Khuz- are lobbying discreetly to get the National Bureau for Human what is happening in the region estan province.” special amnesty. Many of them, Rights, he instructed them to and to shield the country from Amnesty International cites Ahvazi activists who previously voiced the most work freely, without regard to potential shocks or tremors. as saying up to 600 people may have been extreme positions against the any guardianship or pressure and The situation in Kuwait had to detained and adds that the indiscriminate government, are asking fellow to dedicate themselves to the be contained. The opposition, crackdown is creating a climate of fear among deputies and politicians to tone reinforcement of freedoms and including the extreme opposition ethnic Arabs. down their political bidding so human rights in Kuwait. more than all others, understands Such measures will only fuel tensions as not to hurt their quest for a That day, Sheikh Sabah made the delicate situation in the region between the central government in Tehran and special amnesty. sure that his words were tel- and the importance of develop- Iranian minorities on the periphery. The politics of “raised voice” evised live, especially when he ments in neighbouring countries. In addition, there are fears that the coming is, however, making a strong told the visiting delegation: “We One can finally speak of po- weeks will witness increasing and indiscrimi- comeback in Kuwait, coming this do not want you to be hidden litical maturity in the country. nate repression of ordinary Iranians, espe- time from the top of the pyramid inside our pockets. We want you Kuwait has matured at all levels cially the poor, as they are likely to feel the and in a novel way. to be free but at the same time at a time the United States is brunt of the country’s economic crisis made Kuwaiti Emir Sheikh Sabah do not forget that this is your imposing new sanctions package worse by US sanctions. Ahmad al-Jaber al-Sabah has re- country. You are responsible as on Iran. It is no longer a secret Recent demonstrations in Iran have shown vived Kuwait’s war on corruption much as I am.” that Sheikh Sabah has informed the destabilising effect of the serious crisis with new weapons consisting of As it reaffirms the importance parliament members that the caused by a multitude of factors besides the a set of overt public statements of protecting freedoms and hu- post-sanctions era will be differ- sanctions, including economic mismanage- and positions. man rights, Kuwait is waging an ent from the times preceding it. ment, falling oil exports, widespread corrup- Notably, during a ceremony internal war against corruption Kuwait finds itself in a position tion and the squandering of financial resources of presenting Sheikh Sabah with and excesses to complement in which everyone must fortify on military adventures in the region. the annual report of the Kuwaiti the external war it is fighting to the country’s internal situation. It Against this precarious domestic back- State Audit Bureau, the emir achieve stability and relieve the is not just about how Iran would ground, Tehran is not behaving in a way that focused questions on infractions region from crises and tensions. react to the sanctions. There ensures the support of European nations in the more than on the achievements It is remarkable that in Kuwait is also the unstable situation face of US sanctions. reported. Also, at every meeting one can read about 360 univer- in southern Iraq, specifically As reflected by its worrisome involvement in with the prime minister or any sity graduates taken to court for in Basra, which is not far from recent terror plots, the Iranian government other minister, Sheikh Sabah using fake or suspect diplomas or Kuwait. does not seem to worry too much about never fails to stress the need hear a minister say that an error The situation in Basra, which European countries’ sovereignty, human to implement accountability at cost the public treasury tens of has relatively subsided, seems rights or international law. the highest levels and for state millions of dollars! likely to explode in a way that “They feel the constraints on them have officials and leaders to be ac- Many other changes are going will be difficult to control, espe- been removed,” said Bruce Riedel, a senior countable for any complacency on in Kuwait but they are guided cially because there is no indica- fellow at the Brookings Institution and former or laxity. and disciplined by strong institu- tion that the new government US official. The “loud voice” was heard tions on the one hand and by formed by Adel Abdul-Mahdi is Denmark, which has been playing a key role again when Sheikh Sabah sought fear from the turbulent situation willing to pay attention to the in Europe to safeguard the Iran nuclear deal, problems of the neglected people will be hard pressed to ask the European Union of the city. for tougher measures against Tehran. In short, there seems to be As Sanam Vakil, a fellow at the Royal Insti- another war going on in Kuwait, tute of International Affairs in London, told quite different from military the Washington Post, the latest plot in Den- campaigns. That war is called mark “makes it harder for the EU and the E3 fortifying Kuwait’s internal stabil- [Britain, France and Germany] to make their ity. Fortunately for Kuwait, there case to defend the deal.” is a national awareness regarding Denmark’s reaction has been very restrained the necessity of that effort. The with Prime Minister Lars Lokke politely opening session of the National describing the alleged plot as “totally unaccep- Assembly remarkably passed table.” quietly, except for the speech by The European Union’s reactions overall have been measured if not plain contrite. Sheikh Sabah, which included “We deplore any threat to EU security and several warnings. take every incident extremely seriously and Sheikh Sabah is taking action therefore we stand in solidarity with the but in his own way. He is relying member state concerned, in this case, Den- on soft power, no more and no mark,” said Maja Kocijancic, a spokeswoman less. This quiet force is what is for the European Commission. most suitable in the context of Considering its reckless record, Tehran is brewing storms in more than one likely to wrongly interpret Europe’s restrained zone in the Gulf and the Middle reaction as an invitation to pursue its provoca- East. tions towards European capitals and the rest of Navigating brewing storms. Kuwaiti Emir Sheikh Sabah Ahmad the international community. al-Jaber al-Sabah (C) upon his arrival at the opening ceremony of Khairallah Khairallah is a the new legislative year in Kuwait City, on October 30. (AFP) Lebanese writer. November 4, 2018 7 Opinion

Palestinians face risk of being forgotten Published by Al Arab Claude Salhani Publishing House

Emotionally inflated outrage has become too predictable, not to add what it Publisher means to the risk that the Palestinian cause might be forgotten. and Group Executive Editor Haitham El-Zobaidi, PhD ave you, while claiming those were strongholds watching the of the militant group Hamas. Editor-in-Chief news, ever What is striking in this context wondered why is that, outside of the two sides Oussama Romdhani protesters, re- concerned, there seems to be no gardless of their interest in the events unfolding Managing Editor Hnationality, geographic location, in the Palestinian territories. Iman Zayat linguistic affiliation or political The bombardment of Palestin- inclination always carry signs in ian homes used to be front-page Deputy Managing Editor English? news in the not-too-distant past. and Online Editor Be they from Afghanistan, Today, it passes by unnoticed as Mamoon Alabbasi Belarus, Iraq, Iran, the Palestin- this tit-for-tat, cat-and-mouse ian territories or elsewhere, in- game that Israelis and Palestin- Senior Editor evitably, there will be people in ians play nearly 70 years after the John Hendel the crowd carrying signs stating founding of the state of Israel has the reason for their protests and reached a saturation point. Chief Copy Editor many of those signs will be in For the Israeli government, Richard Pretorius English. Some include spelling especially those very short- and grammatical errors but they On deaf ears. Protesters in central London shout slogans sighted leaders such as Prime Copy Editor will be in English. Why? and hold placards during a demonstration in support of Minister Binyamin Netanyahu Stephen Quillen The answer is simple: They Palestinians, last April 7. (AFP) this impasse in the peacemaking are there for the benefit of the process may be seen in a positive East/West Section Editor international media — the CNN there are people who support Reagan telephoned Shamir and, light, allowing him a firmer hand Mark Habeeb cameras, the BBC reporters and their cause. reports at the time said, “gave in dealing with the Palestinians. Gulf Section Editor the France 24 correspondents. A well-placed protester’s sign him a piece of his mind.” In the region, there are also Protesters have learned over or a well-placed news photo- Shamir called Israeli Prime signs of fatigue. Netanyahu’s Mohammed Alkhereiji the years that they stand a far graph can have very marking Minister Menachem Begin and recent trip to Oman did not elicit Society and Travel better chance at getting cameras effects. relayed the series of events. the usual denunciations of nor- Sections Editor focused on them, even if only For example, during the 1982 Reagan insisted on a ceasefire, malisation with Israel. Samar Kadi for a few seconds, with signs in Israeli invasion of Lebanon, which was eventually reached, For the Palestinians, this sets English and that they may get supporters of the Palestinians’ although it was short-lived. a dangerous precedent as their Syria and Lebanon their message across. Convinc- plight in Western cities kept Nevertheless, it created a few plight may be gradually ignored Section Editor ing enough supporters in major reminding people of the debacle precious hours of respite from by the international community. Simon Speakman Cordall Western capital cities, such as in the region. Add to that a the barrage of artillery, naval There may still be a few signs Washington, London, Paris or simple photograph of a Leba- and air bombardment of Beirut in English in the next demonstra- Contributing Editor Rome, they hope can eventu- nese infant who was severely and its surroundings. tion in Oslo, Stockholm or Rome Rashmee Roshan Lall ally put pressure on lawmakers wounded during a raid by Israeli Over the years it seems the in support of the Palestinians but to intervene on behalf of their warplanes and published by the plight of the Palestinians has beyond that don’t expect much. Contributing Analyst cause. Washington Post, among others. lost its draw, whether the signs The Palestinians must take Ed Blanche Protesters around the world It was seen by Nancy Reagan, are in English or not. There has notice of the changes in the feel the need to communicate then America’s first lady. She recently been an outburst of world. They must steer away Senior Correspondents their plight to the international was moved by the power of violence between the Palestin- from demagoguery and the Mahmud el-Shafey (London) community. Whether they are that image and stormed into ians in Gaza and the Israelis. temptation of radical rhetoric Lamine Ghanmi (Tunis) protesting logging in the Ama- the Oval Office with the picture Militant Palestinian Islamists and empty threats. Thomas Seibert (Istanbul) zon forest or the occupation of in hand and told her husband, who control the turbulent strip Emotionally inflated outrage their lands, as in the case in the US President Ronald Reagan, to fired rockets into Israel, appar- has become too predictable, not Regular Columnists Palestinian territories, winning stop the war. ently in retaliation for some to add what it means to the risk Claude Salhani support of the world community It so happened that Israeli action Israeli troops took against that the Palestinian cause might Yavuz Baydar is an advantage. Foreign Minister Yitzhak Shamir Palestinians. be forgotten. It gives the protesters a sense was visiting Washington at the As could be expected, the Correspondents that perhaps they are not alone time, drumming up support for Israelis retaliated with air strikes Claude Salhani is a regular Saad Guerraoui (Casablanca) in the world, that somewhere Israel as war raged in Lebanon. on several positions in Gaza, columnist for The Arab Weekly. Dunia El-Zobaidi (London) Roua Khlifi (Tunis) Chief Designer The last battle of the Syrian regime Marwen el-Hmedi

Salam al-Saadi Designers Ibrahim Ben Bechir The United States and Turkey are trying to transform the three zones of influence into a Hanen Jebali political agreement and even to guarantee and legitimise their existence.

even years after the The use of barrel bombs degree of stability. remain in power at any cost, it Contact editor at: outbreak of the Syrian against popular markets and The US intervention strength- was to survive in a very specific [email protected] war, three zones of residential areas caused wide- ened the Kurds and expanded state of centralised control and governance emerged. spread destruction, waves of the range of territory available imposing authority and its se- Each enjoys some displacement and ended any to them, permitting the emer- curity apparatus on every inch degree of stability and chance for stable local govern- gence of a governance system of Syria. Sdepends on the protection of ance zones outside government independent of Damascus. The battle today is focused on Al Arab Publishing House regional or international power control. Despite grievances by Kurdish either perpetuating or reversing Quadrant Building while preserving some inde- This was a very dangerous zone inhabitants about public this reality, which represents 177-179 Hammersmith Road pendence from that protector. gamble by Damascus because services available to them, the a serious threat to the Syrian London W6 8BS There is the zone of northern it caused a dramatic increase United States and some Arab regime. The United States and Aleppo, associated with Turkey; in the number of deaths and of countries, including Saudi Turkey are trying to transform north-eastern Syria, associated refugees — a consequence that Arabia, pledged $100 million for the three zones of influence into with the United States; and the could have resulted in an inter- reconstruction and stabilisation a political agreement and even Tel: (+44) 20 7602 3999 remaining and largest zone, as- national reaction strong enough efforts in those areas. to guarantee and legitimise Fax: (+44) 20 7602 8778 sociated with Russia. to bring the government down. North of Aleppo, areas under their existence and possibly that Such a division was not The regime nonetheless chose Turkish control developed after of other areas by emphasising possible a few years ago when between what it determined the expulsion of ISIS by military the principle of decentralisa- overlapping battles raged across was the lesser of two evils: the operations that kicked off in tion in the new constitution of US Publisher: Syria in a way that prevented acceptance of stable governance 2016 and continued until the the country. Russia is showing the emergence of clear spheres areas lying outside its control end of last year. Since the ces- relative flexibility in accept- The Arab Weekly USA LLC. of influence. However, the most or raising the level of death and sation of the hostilities there, ing the decentralisation of the [email protected] important factor that prevented destruction, which would risk the Turkish presence has turned Syrian regime, in exchange for the formation of such areas was more external interference. from military to political. a complete exit of the United [email protected] linked to a policy followed by The regime’s gamble paid off. Turkish influence has been States from Syria. Tel: 248-679-6624 the Syrian government to deal It avoided the potential night- growing through projects at a The Syrian regime has other with the rapid military develop- mare of liberated areas with- variety of levels. Thus, Turkish plans. As invested as it is in the ments since the beginning of out having to face additional municipalities have established US withdrawal from Syria, it the Syrian revolution in 2011, international intervention not and financed local governance would not allow it to occur at especially when it came to the on its side. The government councils in Syria. They run a the expense of its authority nor so-called liberated areas. was spared this because of the wide network of health, educa- would it accept the enshrining Once the government realised decline of the role of the United tion, security, economic and of this loss in authority in the it was impossible to reclaim ar- States and the rise of Russia’s judicial services. country’s new constitution. Subscription & Advertising: eas beyond its control, it denied role. The emergence of the The situation in Syria did not This explains Syrian Foreign [email protected] them any stability. Damascus Islamic State (ISIS) in Iraq and evolve as Damascus wished. De- Minister Walid Muallem’s insist- Tel 020 3667 7249 refused to recognise any auton- Syria ended the possibility of spite reversing the situation in ence during his meeting with omous existence for the areas, international military interven- its favour in the past couple of UN Special Envoy Staffan de no matter the consequences. tion to protect Syrian civilians. years and eliminating the threat Mistura that the constitution Mohamed Al Mufti This required horrific and un- However, it was not possi- of its downfall and despite the is an “issue of sovereignty” Marketing & Advertising precedented levels of violence, ble for Damascus to control a tremendous shrinking of the and his rejection of any foreign Manager such as the deployment of conflict of such proportions and area controlled by the opposi- intervention in that regard. warplanes to strike residential complexity. Eventually, there tion to northern Aleppo, the Direct: +44 20 8742 9262 areas since mid-2012 or the use emerged areas independent Syrian government came out Salam al-Saadi is a www.alarab.co.uk of explosive barrels. from the government with some a loser. Its goal was not to just Syrian-Palestinian writer. 8 November 4, 2018 News & Analysis Iraq Iraqi prime minister tested by early balancing acts

Sami Moubayed a Soviet-trained air force pilot who was an adviser to the Iraqi president Beirut in 2015. He was vetoed by support- ers of Hisham al-Daraji, another ex- raqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul- officer from the Saddam era. Mahdi should be having a party Daraji was deputy director of op- but he is not. Fourteen of his erations at the Ministry of Defence I ministers were approved by the and commander of ground troops in Iraqi legislature, giving him enough the Iraqi Army. Both Jarba and Daraji reason to celebrate. He is techni- raised the ire of hard-line Shia blocs cally the 49th prime minister of in parliament, saying that they were Iraq, presiding over a lopsided and too close to Saddam. Some claimed incomplete cabinet, which might Jarba was part of Saddam’s aerial fall anytime. entourage. However, eight of Abdul-Mahdi’s A third candidate, Najm al-Ja- proposed cabinet members were bouri, a US-trained officer and a vetoed by the Chamber of Deputies, veteran of the Iran-Iraq War, has put leaving strategic portfolios such as forth his candidacy. He has plenty of defence, interior and education va- supporters due to his performance cant. What Abdul-Mahdi pulled off in the battles for the liberation of were less-sensitive posts such as ag- Mosul from ISIS and might succeed riculture, youth affairs and labour. as a compromise candidate. If he doesn’t come up with a new list At the Interior Ministry, allocated by the next time parliament meets exclusively to the Shias since 2003, — November 6 — his cabinet might the struggle is more complicated. collapse, less than two weeks after There is only one candidate for the its formation. job — Faleh al-Fayyad, the recently fired national security adviser. In Finding a suitable Sunni addition to his government job, he politician to assume the was head of the Popular Mobilisa- Put to the test. Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi addresses the Iraqi parliament during the Defence Ministry might be tion Forces (PMF), known in Arabic vote on the new government, on October 24. (AFP) far less difficult than as al-Hashed al-Shaabi. It was set up three years ago to battle ISIS in Iraq. agreeing on a Shia for the Educated as an electrical engi- have been at dagger’s end for years, Finding a suitable Sunni politi- Abdul-Mahdi, his coalition might Ministry of Interior. neer at Mosul University, Fayyad especially after al-Sadr too tried cian to assume the Defence Minis- collapse much sooner than anybody was arrested by Saddam in Decem- distancing himself from his Iranian try might be far less difficult than expected. Abadi wouldn’t mind, af- One strongly vetoed figure, for ber 1980, accused of being part of patrons in 2017-18, calling on their agreeing on a Shia for the Ministry ter being squeezed out of the scene, example, is Hassan al-Rabii, com- the Iran-backed underground and ally, Syrian President Bashar As- of Interior. On that level, the quarrel forcefully by his former proteges, mander of Asaib Ahl al-Haq, an kept for five years at the infamous sad, to step down and campaigning is an internal Shia one with parties and neither would Maliki, whose all-Shia militia set up to fight the Is- Abu Ghraib Prison. After the fall on ticket that was both anti-Iranian that emerged after the 2003 inva- candidacy for the vice-presidency lamic State (ISIS) in Iraq. Staunchly of Saddam in 2003 he reached the and anti-American. sion, all formerly or now on the Ira- was also vetoed by Sadr. pro-Iranian and allied to the prime post of national security adviser, Although part of the PMF, he has nian payroll. If Amiri doesn’t insert Fayyad minister, Rabii was nominated, very falling out with former Prime Min- often criticised its politics, seeing Abadi’s Nasr Coalition won 42 out or somebody of his like at the In- surprisingly, for the post of minister ister Haider al-Abadi after the lat- that it ought to have remained a of 329 seats in parliament last May, terior Ministry, he, too, would find of culture. The main sticking points ter cuddled up to Saudi Arabia and non-state player rather than get a far from enough to secure a major- enough reason to withdraw support are the ministries of interior and de- announced that he would abide by political wing and start to yield in- ity. Former Prime Minister Nuri al- from Abdul-Mahdi. Left would be fence, however, not culture. They forthcoming US sanctions renewed fluence in political affairs. Maliki’s State of Law Coalition got 25 the Sadrists who were behind the are being run by the prime minister on Iran. Ghaleb Shabandar, a ranking Sad- seats, which, when combined with blacklisting of his original minis- on an interim basis until suitable Fayyad’s name was vetoed by the rist, appealed to Sadr via Facebook, the 48 of Fayyad’s ally Hadi al-Amiri ters. They alone, however, cannot candidates are agreed on. Sairoon bloc of Shia cleric Muqtada hinting that Fayyad was responsible and the 54 of al-Sadr, total 127. That help Abdul-Mahdi stay in power. For defence, a tug-of-war is be- al-Sadr, which controls a plurality — for the 1999 killing of his father, Mo- coalition succeeded at naming Ab- tween three Sunni candidates eye- 54 — of the seats in parliament. hammad Sadeq al-Sadr, implying dul-Mahdi prime minister but seem Sami Moubayed is a Syrian ing the post. One is Abdul-Mahdi’s Although technically part of the that he was working undercover for to agree on nothing further. historian and author of “Under the original candidate, Faisal al-Jarba, same camp, Fayyad and al-Sadr Saddam. If either of them walks out on Black Flag” (IB Tauris, 2015). Viewpoint Appointments perpetuate Iraq’s corrupt system

s nominations for its development altogether. government formation in Iraq, functions and override the com- Iraq’s defence and Whether by blood or by creed, not just in speed but the prac- mandments Iraq receives from its interior ministries newly appointed ministers are tices underpinning it. In addi- allies in Tehran and Washington. Nazli Tarzi arouse greater po- either affiliated with unreckon- tion to setting off on the wrong Though it is arguable, Abdul- litical disquiet, the able militia factions including foot, these practices cut straight Mahdi has resigned himself to the leaders of 14 of Iraq’s Asa’ib Ahl al Haq (AAH), Babylon through Abdul-Mahdi’s promise status quo as the easier choice, al- 22A ministries have been approved Brigades, Popular Mobilisation of ministerial reform. lowing representatives of the ex- and seated. However, Adel Abdul- Forces, Badr Corps or large politi- To modernise appointment isting system to usher themselves Mahdi’s ascent to head of the new cal blocs — among them Sairoon methods, Abdul-Mahdi intro- to government seats, instead of government may not herald a new and the State of Law. duced a system in which Iraqis convincing those repelled by age of democracy as commenta- AAH member Hassan Kazan was eyeing cabinet posts could submit corrosive levels of corruption and tors have entertained. awarded the Ministry of Culture applications online. The fact that cronyism to join Iraq’s political The cabinet and ministerial ap- and Tourism. The Ministry of Oil mechanisms used to sort, filter process. pointments have shown that un- initially seated Jabar Ali al-Luaibi and narrow down the pool of As more analysts rush to label wavering political allegiance pays but replaced him with Sairoon- qualified candidates were never the new prime minister as the more handsomely in the new Iraq affiliated Thamer Ghadban to disclosed has aroused greater sus- compromise upon which Wash- than loyalty towards the country. punish Luaibi for aligning himself picion against a measure viewed ington and Tehran could find mu- Keeping in tradition with previous to the wrong list. by many as another failed trick. tual ground, corruption continues The system cannot fix years, choices have been drawn Kurdish Gorran leaning former Despite the outsized role politi- to feed on Iraq’s political struc- along political party lines — par- parliamentarian Srwa Abdulwahid cal parties play, the new techno- tures and anti-graft bodies. The itself, especially not ties that have staffed government expressed her dismay over the cratic head of state promises to system cannot fix itself, especially by rewarding security institutions since 2003. post awarded to Kazan. “What rewrite Iraqi history but such not by rewarding security actors The newest ministerial class, the ministry of culture needs is a practices have done little to build and representatives from the actors and contrary to claims of “relative in- candidate who breathes arts, lit- public confidence and trust. The parties responsible for siphoning representatives from dependence,” reflects the current erature. Someone able to restore rehabilitation of corruption- Iraq’s resource wealth with minis- power plays and the dominant our picture houses and theatres. racked ministries needs more terial seats. the parties actors. Favouritism and nepo- In other words, a man who loves than a new ministerial head or the responsible for tism have sullied the country’s life,” she wrote on her official elimination of senior positions as Nazli Tarzi is an independent siphoning Iraq’s appointment system by inserting Twitter page. the prime minister has proposed. journalist, whose writings and into the fold a new crop of corrupt In absence of effective parlia- It needs esteemed leaders and films focus on Iraq’s ancient resource wealth with politicos, not merely impeding mentary scrutiny, the selected men of integrity who can central- history and contemporary ministerial seats. democratic growth but stunting portfolios raise concerns about ise commands and ministerial political scene. November 4, 2018 9 News & Analysis Syria

UN chief Kurdish SDF caught between announces Turkish, US aims in Syria new Syria envoy Simon Speakman Cordall be drawn from a pool of fighters of wildly differing experience and ability — sustained heavy casual- The Arab Weekly staff Tunis ties even before the pause in opera- tions againts ISIS was announced. Beirut he Kurdish-dominated Agence France-Presse reported Syrian Democratic Forces that, as of October 30, 72 SDF fight- orwegian diplomat Geir (SDF) finds itself torn be- ers had been killed. Pedersen has been se- T tween competing war aims “Turkish attacks in the north and lected by UN Secretary- of its US allies and Turkish oppo- ISIS attacks in the south against N General Antonio Gu- nents as the SDF declared a pause our troops had forced us to stop terres to be the UN special envoy in the battle to reclaim one of the our current operation temporar- to Syria. remaining pockets held by the Is- ily against ISIS in the last pocket of Pederson, 63, is said to be well- lamic State (ISIS) in eastern Syria. it,” the SDF said in announcing the versed in regional affairs, having As the SDF fought to take con- pause. served as the United Nations’ trol of the region, Turkish shelling “We also call the international special coordinator for Lebanon increased on Kurdish positions in community to condemn the Turk- from 2005-08 and having taken northern Syria, splintering the loy- ish provocations in the safe areas in part in the secret negotiations alties of the United States’ princi- Syria and we demand our partners that led to the Oslo Accords of pal ally in the country and leading in the international coalition to 1993-95. He was Norway’s repre- the SDF to announce a pause in op- show a clear attitude and stop Tur- sentative to the Palestinian Au- erations at the eastern Syrian city key from launching attacks on the thority from 1998-2003. of Hajin on October 31. region,” the statement added. Most recently, he served as An unlikely final redoubt, Hajin, The SDF’s partnership with the Norway’s ambassador to China, on a bend of the Euphrates River United States provided little insur- following his tenure as his coun- and with a population of 60,000, ance against Turkish attacks on try’s UN ambassador. In China, few major streets and one public Kurdish positions. Ankara, intense- he proved instrumental in restor- hospital, has proven nearly im- ly hostile to the threat it feels posed ing relations following the ill will pregnable. by Kurdish nationalism and keen to generated by the award of the establish a haven to accommodate Nobel Peace Prize to Chinese dis- Turkey’s aggression, some of its 3 million Syrian refu- sident Liu Xiaobo in 2010. apparently in the face of US gees, sought to carve out a buffer Guterres said Pedersen would zone along its border, irrespective bring decades of political and pressure to the contrary, is of the concerns of the United States. diplomatic experience to the job not without its own logic. Turkish forces earlier in the year as special envoy for Syria. attacked Kurdish positions in Afrin, Pedersen succeeds Staffan de Hajin fell under ISIS control in forcing the SDF to break off opera- Paused. Fighters from the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) attend the Mistura, who announced he was 2013 and the terror group increased tions against ISIS in April and rein- funeral of one of their commanders in Qamishly in north-eastern stepping down for family rea- the number of its fighters in the force their compatriots on Turkey’s Syria, on October 29. (AFP) sons at the end of November after town after its caliphate began to border. A marked increase in ISIS more than four years as special fall in 2016. It established a tunnel attacks was reported afterwards. local partners when their priorities “Right now, the US has to rely on envoy. De Mistura said he was network under Hajin and built up “For ISIS, this is a godsend,” said might lie elsewhere.” Turkey playing nice and Erdogan making a final effort to advance relations with the area’s tribal pop- Nicholas Heras, a Middle East secu- Turkey’s aggression, apparently knows that,” Heras said. “As Turkey towards a new constitution for ulation to further entrench itself in rity fellow at the Centre for a New in the face of US pressure to the prepares to establish control over a Syria — a key step in ending the the area’s daily life. American Secu­rity. “In allaying the contrary, is not without its own long strip of contiguous territory civil war. Though shelling ISIS positions SDF’s advance, it scored a major re- logic. “Erdogan really wants to see (in Syria) along its border, he wants Chief among Pederson’s chal- by SDF and coalition forces con- prieve and bought time to regroup how far he can test this,” Heras to know how flexible the US is will- lenges will be restoring the pri- tinues, the SDF offensive on Hajin and re-establish itself. said. “He knows he needs a modus ing to be over Turkish action.” macy of the United Nations’ Ge- was proving costly even before its “More than that, it provides a vivendi (working arrangement) neva talks within an international pause. With desert sand kicked up clear lesson to the coalition (the with the US forces in Syria but he Simon Speakman Cordall is Syria/ peace process dominated by Mos- by high winds reducing visibility US-led forces in Syria) of the un- also wants to know how far he can Lebanon section editor with The cow. to a few metres, the SDF — said to certainty of relying so heavily on push that.” Arab Weekly. Viewpoint US no longer tries to accommodate Iran in Syria

uring the Obama apocalypse and should never be lent regime change in Syria. Rather into chaos. Elections must be administration, the allowed rehabilitation into the it is prepared to oversee stabilisa- preceded by rule of law, return of United States’ policy international community.” tion in territory liberated from ISIS refugees and the beginnings of Frederic C. Hof on Syria was divided Indeed, Obama probably would while keeping regime forces and reconciliation and reconstruction by the Euphrates acknowledge that ISIS’s rise in Iran-led militiamen to the west of — things that can be overseen by a River. To the east, eastern Syria filled a vacuum the Euphrates. Ultimately, it wants transitional government. Dthe objective was to support created by the Assad regime’s Shia extremists removed from the The Trump administration’s anti-Islamic State (ISIS) combat illegitimacy and its decision to country but this will be difficult: strategy depends on stabilising operations of a Kurdish (eventually concentrate militarily on the Iran’s rulers view the Assad regime eastern Syria, supporting Tur- Kurdish-dominated) militia with civilian populations of western as key to solidifying their country’s key’s stabilisation efforts in Idlib weapons, advisers and combat air Syria. Obama, however, feared that position in the Arab world and pro- province and dissuading the Assad support. The Trump administra- pushback against Bashar Assad — tecting Lebanon’s Hezbollah. regime from resuming mass civil- tion has taken credit for accelerat- even similar to the limited retalia- The Trump administration’s ian slaughter. The Trump admin- ing the anti-ISIS campaign but its tory responses to chemical warfare theory seems to be that Assad has istration also should do something strategy in the east has remained authorised by Trump in 2017 and not won, that much of the country avoided by its predecessor: iden- constant. 2018 — would alienate Tehran, As- is beyond his control, that cease- tify Syrians with whom to work, West of the Euphrates, the sad’s greatest supporter, and scup- fire lines are hardening and that a especially in the east. Helping the Obama administration supported per US-Iran nuclear negotiations. political process can soon com- Kurds achieve effective local gov- political transition based on the Hence the operational fiction mence. A political process would ernance in predominantly Kurdish 2012 “Final Communique of the that the battle against ISIS in the make it difficult for the regime to areas is essential; relying on them Action Group on Syria,” which was east was taking place in a sepa- alter ceasefire lines through force to stabilise overwhelmingly Arab elaborated by UN Security Coun- rate universe from Assad’s war and could lead to a transitional areas is asking for trouble. cil Resolution 2254 in 2015. The on Syrian civilians to the west. governing body that would ask the Uniting the two parts of the Syr- strategy relied on Russia delivering Reportedly, Obama assured Iran Iranians and their hired foreign ian puzzle is a major accomplish- its Syrian client to UN-led talks in that the United States would take fighters to leave. There appears to ment. Implementing a strategy Geneva in a mood for dialogue, no military action against Assad — be no administration objection to to address the underlying cause compromise, power-sharing and, a priceless insurance policy for a cooperation between Damascus of Syria’s misery and the instabil- ultimately, transition via national mass murderer. and Moscow. ity it has fostered in the region elections by mid-2016. Unconcerned with keeping Iran Linking the two parts of the Syr- will take patience and endurance. The Trump administration also happy, the Trump administra- ian puzzle is long overdue. There Unless Syrians are enlisted in the supports Geneva and Security tion has ended the two universes is, however, no evidence that the effort, the odds are that Iran will Council Resolution 2254 but differs approach to Syria. Defeating ISIS Damascus regime has any appetite outlast the United States in Syria from its predecessor in its link- remains Washington’s priority but for compromise or power-sharing. and breathe new life into a form age between the two sides of the the Trump administration has cor- Neither is there evidence that of Islamist extremism that differs Euphrates. rectly concluded that the underly- Russia has the desire or ability to only stylistically from its own. Recognising that Syria is a uni- ing cause of Islamist extremism in compel Damascus and Iran has no Unconcerned with tary problem rooted in the crimes Syria also must be addressed. The interest in abandoning its Syrian Frederic C. Hof is Bard College’s keeping Iran of the Assad regime is not new. combination of regime corruption, province. diplomat in residence and a non- Doing something about it is. Presi- incompetence and brutality and its Even under the best circum- resident senior fellow of the Rafik happy, the Trump dents Donald Trump and Barack reliance on Iran-led Shia militias stances — a negotiation process Hariri Centre for the Middle East. administration has Obama would no doubt agree that make the resurrection of Islamist producing political transition This article originally appeared on the Assad regime bears, as George extremists in ungoverned parts of — the destabilising downside of the Atlantic Council’s MENASource ended the two Washington University Professor Syria likely. Security Council Resolution 2254 blog (http://www.atlanticcouncil. universes Marc Lynch said, “full responsi- Like its predecessor, the Trump must be avoided: Early national org/blogs/menasource) and is approach to Syria. bility for the initiation of Syria’s administration does not seek vio- elections could plunge Syria back reprinted with permission. 10 November 4, 2018 News & Analysis Egypt Egypt, Sudan edge closer as security interests converge

Ahmed Megahid

Cairo

he removal of a year-old Su- danese ban on agricultural imports from Egypt and the T signing of 12 agreements and memorandums of understand- ing were apparent plusses from a visit by Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi to Sudan. However, the political and secu- rity gains Sisi made during his Oc- tober 25 visit to Khartoum and his talks with President Omar al-Bashir far outweigh the economic gains, analysts said. “Egypt and Sudan work hard to put their relations on the right track,” said Mona Omar, a former Egyptian assistant foreign minister for African affairs. “The two coun- tries are trying to formulate new strategic relations that go beyond their past differences.” Sisi was accompanied by cabinet members and businessmen for his sixth visit to Khartoum since he became Egypt’s president in 2013. Overall, he has met with al-Bashir 24 times, an indication of the im- portance Cairo attaches to relations with its southern neighbour. “We will work together to turn the aspirations of the peoples of our two countries into tangible realities,” Sisi said after the latest trip ended. Al-Bashir said strengthening ties with Egypt was not an option for his country. “On the contrary, it is my country’s duty to strengthen its relations with Egypt,” he said. “The On the right track. Sudan’s President Omar al-Bashir (C-L) inspects an honour guard with his Egyptian counterpart world is changing around us, which Abdel Fattah al-Sisi (C-R) in Khartoum, on October 25. (AFP) makes stronger relations between Cairo and Khartoum a necessity.” Tensions between the two Arab rivals pushed Sisi and al-Bashir to in their affairs. from the Suez Canal. has said Eritrea offered training and and African capitals included a dis- join forces, analysts said. Turkey also expressed concern as “This is why Egypt is taking a support to armed opposition against pute over a border territory Sudan When relations between Egypt Egypt made natural gas discoveries series of major steps to contain Su- it. accuses Egypt of occupying decades and Sudan deteriorated, Egypt’s off its Mediterranean Sea coast, only dan,” said Amany al-Taweel, an Af- The treaty with Ethiopia, analysts ago. Egypt and Sudan were also on regional rivals Turkey and Qatar a few nautical miles from Turkish rica specialist at the Egyptian think- said, would empower Eritrea and, if opposing sides regarding Libya, the made overtures to Khartoum. Doha territorial waters. tank Ahram Centre for Political and the country’s tensions with Sudan row over Nile water-sharing and the and Istanbul opposed the 2013 over- Egypt closely watched as Turk- Strategic Studies. “These policies persist, Asmara would offer more alliances developing in the Middle throw of Islamist President Muham- ish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will ensure that none of Egypt’s ri- support to the Sudanese armed op- East. mad Morsi in Egypt. Cairo accused visited Khartoum in December 2017 vals would exploit Sudan to harm its position. Sudan recalled its ambassador both countries of pursuing policies and signed agreements with the Su- national security or interests.” “This is why the feeling in Khar- from Cairo in January to protest at- that undermined Egyptian national danese government, including one A peace treaty signed by Eritrea toum is that there is no time for tacks on the Sudanese government security and abetted Morsi’s move- ceding to Ankara administrative and Ethiopia, with Saudi and Emi- conflicts with Cairo,” said Sudanese in Egyptian media. ment, the Muslim Brotherhood. control of the island of Suakin near rati mediation, also caused concern political analyst Wayel Ali. “For However, developments in the Egypt is part of a four-country the southern entrance of the Red in Khartoum, analysts said. Eritrea Khartoum, shared security interests Horn of Africa and fears that Sudan group boycotting Qatar because Sea, a national security red line for has accused Sudan of backing the with Cairo are far more important would fall into the orbit of regional of Doha’s suspected meddling Egypt to secure navigation to and Eritrean opposition while Sudan than their traditional conflicts.” Egypt begins campaign to remove Brotherhood street names Amr Emam sponsibility for bomb attacks in Brotherhood from public memory ures and leaders. The ministry will a movement that works to destabi- which civilians were killed. forever,” said Ahmed Ban, a special- order the street names changed. lise Egypt and sabotage the work of An Egyptian court banned the ist in Islamist movements. “Day by In Beheira province, Governor its institutions was a breach of hon- Cairo Muslim Brotherhood in 2013. In day, this movement will become a Hisham Amna ordered name chang- our and contradicted the nature of September, the government seized very small, although painful, detail es for two streets, one of which was his job. gypt is changing the des- the funds and the assets of hun- in Egypt’s extended history.” named after Brotherhood theore- Egypt’s Civil Service Law, which ignations of streets named dreds of Brotherhood businessmen The Egyptian Ministry of Local tician Sayyid Qutb, an important regulates the work of more than 5 for leaders and historical to cut off financing for suspected Development, which oversees the intellectual reference for terrorist million civil servants, allows them E figures of the Muslim Broth- Brotherhood violent activities. work of the municipalities, report- organisations. He was executed af- to keep their jobs if they do not erhood, another step in the govern- “Action in this regard (renaming edly started a survey of streets car- ter being convicted of plotting the commit crimes that breach their ment’s crackdown on the Islamist streets) is enough to remove the rying the names of Brotherhood fig- assassination of Egyptian President honour. movement. Gamal Abdel Nasser. The removal of Brotherhood af- “Our streets must be named after The change of the street names filiates from state institutions is people who made real contributions is only a small part of the meas- generally supported in the Egyptian to our country,” said Qassem Hus- ures Egypt is taking to eradicate the parliament, where many lawmak- sein, the governor of Minya prov- Muslim Brotherhood presence and ers have called on the government ince. influence. to take even tougher action against Hussein ordered a street renamed The Administrative Court, which the Islamist movement and its for Omar Ibn al-Khattab, who was a rules in disputes between the gov- members. companion of Prophet Mohammad. ernment and the public, upheld a Changing the names of streets The street had been known as “Has- decision by the Foreign Ministry to called after Brotherhood figures, the san al-Banna,” who founded the remove an employee after it was lawmakers say, sends a strong mes- Muslim Brotherhood. proved he was a member of the sage about the rejection of the pres- Hussein asked province officials Muslim Brotherhood. The court ence of this movement in their life. to substitute other streets that carry also ordered the firing of a police “Egyptians want to read the Brotherhood names in the province officer who established contacts names of those who sacrificed their with names of policemen and army with Brotherhood members and af- lives so that this country can contin- personnel killed in Egypt’s war on filiates. That decision is seen as ue to be a state,” said lawmaker Ab- terrorism. allowing for additional removal of del Rehim Ali. “Naming the streets Brotherhood affiliates have -at Brotherhood members from state after killers and terrorists is the last tacked state institutions, churches institutions. thing the people want to see.” and police stations and killed doz- In approving the removal of the ens of policemen. Brotherhood- Cul de sac. A street sign that bears the name of “Hassan al-Banna,” Foreign Ministry employee, the Amr Emam is a Cairo-based linked militias have claimed re- who founded the Muslim Brotherhood. (Al Arab) court said the man’s membership in contributor to The Arab Weekly. November 4, 2018 11 Debate Lebanon

Hezbollah in control of Lebanon’s two branches of power

All roads lah used its connections to facili- lead to tate Lebanese ports for smuggling Hezbollah. merchandise that unscrupulous Ali al-Amin Billboards traders sell for huge profits, giving from the party its cut. Hezbollah also Hezbollah’s oversees the Lebanese border with uring the commemo- Committee Syria and thus controls a network ration of the 1983 for the for smuggling legal and illegal bombing of the US Support of goods. Marine Barracks in the Islamic It must be pointed out that, to Beirut, US President Resistance withstand US sanctions against it, Donald Trump signed on display Hezbollah is purposely and dili- Da bill sanctioning the Lebanese on the gently linking Lebanon’s economy, Hezbollah. Beirut finances and security to its own The measure classifies Hezbol- airport survival. The party never fails to lah as a criminal organisation and highway. mention indirectly that it controls places sanctions on individuals and (AP) the inner workings of the Leba- private institutions that deal with nese state and that targeting it will it. More than that, the law allows inevitably cause the demise of state the US president to bring sanctions institutions in Lebanon. against official government institu- Despite this risk, Hezbollah per- tions and countries dealing with sists in rejecting advice from some Hezbollah without prior congres- Lebanese officials and claimed sional approval. ministerial portfolios for its of- The bill was passed after a series government decision that would the institutions and controls scores ficials, without giving a second of resolutions and measures previ- not be in line with Hezbollah’s of municipal councils, which neces- thought to the consequences on ously issued against Hezbollah wishes and desires. sarily have dealings with these the country. within the context of laying siege to In this context, it can be said that, official institutions. Now there is the spectre of US the party’s funding sources and be- from a political and constitutional Rolling US sanctions against Hez- sanctions hovering over Lebanon. fore the implementation of the sec- point of view, Hezbollah is for all bollah have squeezed it financially Hezbollah knows it succeeded in ond package of sanctions on Iran, intents and purposes in control of and forced it to seek refuge in the placing all Lebanese in the path which go into effect in November. the two branches of power in Leba- state. The party is undoubtedly suf- of the US sanctions. The party The new law also comes while non. The party controls parliament fering financially because of direct knows that Washington does not Hezbollah is trying to clamp down through Speaker Nabih Berri, who American sanctions or indirectly take ideological or reprisal consid- on the yet-to-be-formed Leba- abides by the rules of his alliance because of the sanctions against erations in its policies but acts on nese government following May’s with Hezbollah. Hezbollah controls Iran. purely pragmatic bases. general election. Let’s not forget the executive branch through its So the party switched strate- Hezbollah on the other hand, like that Iranian Major-General Qassem ally President Michel Aoun and its gies and entrenched itself in the Iran, considers power and influence Soleimani, commander of al-Quds majority in the new cabinet. Lebanese institutions but not to the more important, ideology being Force, declared Hezbollah and its Hezbollah relied on military and extent of agreeing to the principle a tool for attracting members. So, allies were the winners of the elec- security power to reach enough of operating within and by the rules any possible agreement, be it im- tions. sway over the constitutional insti- of the state. The party simply took plicit with Israel or explicit between Despite the many difficulties that tutions that allow it to complete its advantage of the administrative Washington and Tehran, that will hampered the formation of a new territorial control of Lebanon. Such and financial chaos in Lebanon to not take this power away from it government, the process seems a phenomenal result places the cover its costs and deficits. would certainly be welcomed by to have reached a conclusion. The country in the path of the train of Hezbollah has placed thousands Hezbollah. prospective ministerial equation US sanctions. It is hard to see how of its followers in the so-called Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin seems to have given Hezbollah a the United States could implement municipal police force, which is Netanyahu’s visit to Oman and comfortable share of cabinet posts its sanctions unless the decision funded by tax revenues. Similarly, Iran’s cold but implicitly welcom- that would allow it to control the had already been made not to hesi- it made the Lebanese Ministry of ing reactions reveal that the Iranian new government and prevent any tate in bringing down the edifice on Health and the Lebanese social se- regime is willing to accommodate all in Lebanon. curity agencies fund — to the tune Israeli interests to mitigate the The very nature of the US sanc- of millions of dollars — its clinics, effects of the US sanctions against To withstand US sanctions tions places the entire Lebanese which are dedicated primarily to it and preserve its influence in Arab government and most Lebanese providing health care to Hezbollah countries and Lebanon. Netan- against it, Hezbollah is institutions in the crosshairs of members and fighters. Those clinics yahu’s visit to Muscat on the eve purposely and diligently linking potential economic penalties. Hez- used to be funded by Iran and other of US sanctions on Tehran was an bollah has infiltrated all those in- countries. Iranian message to the Arabs. Lebanon’s economy, finances stitutions and more. The party has Not content with entrenching and security to its own survival. members employed everywhere in itself in state institutions, Hezbol- Ali al-Amin is a Lebanese writer. Political paralysis pushes Lebanon’s economy to the brink

and 1.8% in 2019. “In fact, US sanctions will not financial reform, aimed not least Because of the Syrian crisis and directly affect the Lebanese govern- at stemming the flow of potential the closing of border routes into Jor- ment (unless one of its members income through the country’s en- Rami Rayess dan and Arab regions, a 2.1% drop is on the sanctions list),” said demic corruption. in exports was registered in 2017 economist Jassem Ajaka, “but we However, with fears in the gov- worth $2.5 billion to the Lebanese believe that the application of these ernment over appointing Hezbollah ebanon’s long-awaited economy. sanctions will indirectly affect the ministers, there is a risk officials cabinet is still to be deter- By the end of 2017, the public economy and the public finance on will be unable to cut through the mined. Six months have debt was $79.5 billion, compared several levels.” country’s patronage system and passed since parliamen- to $74.9 billion the year before, an First, Ajaka said, were the difficul- deliver the kind of reform promised tary elections and despite unprecedented annual increase of ties legitimate Lebanese businesses in Paris. extensive negotiations, almost $5 billion. With no concrete would experience in establishing Third, the sanctions may de- Lagreement on the shape of the new steps in place to break the cycle international lines of credit because lay the transfer of remittances of body remains elusive. of increasing annual debt, Leba- of checks they might be potential Lebanese expatriates to Lebanon’s The cabinet notwithstanding, non will remain one of the most Hezbollah operations. banks, on which the sector relies, May’s elections saw much of Leba- indebted countries in the world. “Second, are the challenges in Ajaka cautioned. non’s traditional political establish- Exacerbating challenges pre- implementing the resolutions of CE- Last, “the freedom of movement ment returned to government in sented by Lebanon’s debt are US DRE 1 conference,” Ajaka said, re- of Lebanese businessmen targeted more or the less the same shape as it sanctions on Hezbollah, aimed at ferring to the April meeting in Paris by the sanctions will also be se- left it before the vote. isolating the group and diminishing during which Lebanon committed verely curtailed,” Ajaka said. The sense of continuity extends its financial resources. to a wide-ranging programme of However, Ajaka said he was con- beyond the political elite. The de- fident resolutions agreed to in Paris teriorating economic situation that could be implemented. preceded the elections continues “Indeed, nothing would be able to and, if anything, has grown more draw Lebanon out of the economic severe. A few months ago, Bloomb- and financial crisis it is in more than erg News reported the International the injection of the investments Monetary Fund (IMF) said the Leba- agreed at the CEDRE conference, nese economy was on an unsustain- along with the promised reforms in able path and urgent action was public finance and combating cor- required to stop the decline. ruption,” he said. The average growth rate in Leba- “The main danger to Lebanon non has not exceeded 1.8% in the comes from the size of the debt last seven years. The World Bank service, which in the absence of and the IMF said they expected reforms and investments will lead growth of 1.5% in 2018 to bankruptcy.” If the incoming Lebanese cabinet fails to address corruption, reduce If the incoming Lebanese expenditures and raise revenues cabinet fails to address then, as experts have speculated, the country’s financial ecosystem corruption, reduce expenditures would be in peril. and raise revenues then the Rami Rayess is a Lebanese writer. country’s financial ecosystem Diminishing returns. A man counts Lebanese pound notes at an exchange shop in Follow him on Twitter: would be in peril. Beirut. (AP) @RamiRayess. 12 November 4, 2018 News & Analysis Libya French-Italian rivalries overshadow Palermo initiative on Libya

Michel Cousins However, it was still unclear whether Haftar would attend, al- though the Italian government in- Tunis sisted he had said he would. With- out him, the conference would be a he attention of Libya watch- waste of time. Following his Rome ers is firmly fixed on the visit towards the end of October, it Palermo conference, sched- seems that he will be there. T uled for November 12-13. However, the lack of a concrete The Italian government, which target continues to sap confidence has convened the gathering, hopes it about the Palermo event. will shape up as a grand and success- Speaking October 31 at a news con- ful affair. It invited what would be a ference in Tripoli just a few days after star-studded cast. Sarraj was in Rome, Sarraj’s spokes- US President Donald Trump, Rus- man said the Presidency Council sia President Vladimir Putin, Ger- leader would stress the importance man Chancellor Angela Merkel, in Palermo of elections and a consti- French President Emmanuel Macron tutional basis for them as well as the and host of other international and need for economic reforms and new regional leaders have all been asked, security arrangements in Tripoli. Rolling the dice. Italian Foreign Minister Enzo Moavero Milanesi (L) and President of the Libyan House as have the main players in Libya: None of these is a prime objective of Representatives in Tobruk Ageela Saleh prior their meeting in Rome, on October 31. (AP) Tripoli-based Presidency Council for either Haftar or Saleh and the head Fayez al-Sarraj, eastern-based points are not seen as a breakthrough presidential and political elections, ing to Libya since because of security just before Palermo and it is expect- Field-Marshal Khalifa Haftar and in the Libyan political impasse. “we are in no hurry to have the vote concerns. It is thought he may well ed he will stress both ideas but also the presidents of the Tobruk-based The absence of a political target tomorrow or in November or in De- be replaced soon after the Palermo demand there be no more separate House of Representatives, Ageela that would justify the conference cember.” conference. attempts by individual governments Saleh, and the State Council in the and return Libya to a united, func- Other Italian ministers likewise The Italians were not the only to resolve the Libya crisis. capital, Khalid al-Mishri. tioning state has bolstered suspi- dismissed the French plan. Foreign ones unhappy about the French There are still questions over who cions that the Palermo conference Minister Enzo Moavero Milanesi election timetable. Salame was re- will turn up. Certainly, none of the called elections “hasty.” Firebrand The conference is is a spoiler designed to spike efforts ported to have been deeply irritated international and regional leaders by Macron to take the international Interior Minister Matteo Salvini, by Macron’s move, seeing it as hi- invited are expected to be there. expected to at least agree political lead over Libya. seen as the true head of the Italian jacking and complicating the United With little of major event expected on one thing — to delay At the end of May, in something of government and the man behind Nations’ efforts to resolve the Libyan to result from Palermo, they will be elections. a coup de theatre, Macron persuad- the Palermo conference, suggested crisis. He reportedly considered represented at ministerial, possibly ed Sarraj, Haftar, Saleh and Mishri in September, at the time of clashes fresh elections unrealistic in the pre- at junior ministerial, level. In the run-up, though, few Liby- to meet in Paris and agree to parlia- in Tripoli, that French interference sent circumstances but was unable Even if Palermo ends up as just ans — indeed, few international ob- mentary and presidential elections in Libya’s affairs was to blame for its to say so publicly. another footnote in Libyan history, servers — have been optimistic that on December 10 and a constitutional instability. Salame is also said to be irritated the Italian government will probably the conference would be anything basis for them by September 16. The dismissal of elections, though, about the Italian move for the same not be wholly displeased. With the other than yet another talking shop. The move was not appreciated did not win the Italians any plaudits reasons and there are expectations September date for a constitution Just days before the conference, in Rome where the new right-wing in Libya, where they were consid- that he will try to use Palermo to framework for elections past and there is no new road map the four government was, for domestic rea- ered unwarranted interference in its take back control of the Libya ne- no chance of presidential elections Libyan leaders could agree to. sons, keen to be seen taking a tough affairs. Comments by the Italian am- gotiations, pushing for his idea of a in a month’s time, the conference The Italians have been working line on migration from Libya. It also bassador, interpreted as a demand grand national conference to decide is expected to at least agree on one strenuously to make the show a suc- saw Paris intruding into what it con- that elections be delayed, resulted the country’s future. thing — to delay elections. Macron’s cess. During the last week of Octo- sidered Italy’s traditional area of in- in protests from the House of Rep- He has indicated that he wants Libyan initiative will have been for- ber, all four key Libyan figures were fluence. resentatives and a counter-demand some unidentified Libyans added to mally scuppered. invited to Rome to discuss it, as was In August, Italian Prime Minister by Haftar that he be replaced. The the sanctions list for obstructing ef- UN Special Envoy to Libya Ghassan Giuseppe Conte said, while Italy’s in- ambassador denied he had called for forts to improve security in Tripoli. Michel Cousins is a contributor to Salame. terest was to stabilise Libya and see a delay but he has not risked return- He is to brief the UN Security Council The Arab Weekly on Libyan issues. Viewpoint An emerging caliphate in Libya? ibya is the 16th largest The US intervention in Libya in ports and hundreds of billions of Libya is likely his greatest regret. country on Earth. It has 2011, under the auspices of NATO, petrodollars waiting in the ground. He has affirmed: “I did a little too the tenth largest proven was only partially successful. No Indeed, it may already be too much counting on other countries Frank Kryza oil reserves and there analyst views events in Libya in the late. to help support government forma- are likely at least 10 last six years as anything but a dis- “We came. We saw. He died,” tion in Libya and now it’s kind of a billion barrels of high- aster. One frequently hears cynical joked US Secretary of State Hillary mess.” Lquality crude not yet discovered. diplomats saying: “I never thought Clinton of Qaddafi’s death. Yet the My purpose in bringing these ter- Who rules Libya matters. I’d ever say that I miss Muammar killing of Qaddafi came at a high rifying images together is to raise Yet from the war of 2011, the Qaddafi, but…” price when it became clear no one consciousness of a problem that “Arab spring” in which Muammar Getting accurate information had the courage to replace him. may soon explode, to the surprise Qaddafi was deposed and killed, about Tripoli has been getting American television was soon air- of almost all Americans, includ- chaos in Libya has increased every harder since 2011. The CIA esti- ing footage of young, healthy Liby- ing those who are avid consum- year. Libya is a haven for leaders mates there are 20,000-30,000 ISIS ans being sold in outdoor markets ers of news. Imagine a broadcast of the Islamic State (ISIS) flee- fighters still in the war but at least for labour like slaves. announcing that Libya is not Libya ing ineluctable defeat by US-led 5,000 of those bad guys are high- The problem wasn’t getting rid any more. It is now the Sunni Cali- forces in Iraq and Syria. There is tailing it to safety in Tripoli. of Qaddafi but, rather, that there phate, the holy land, the replace- a significant risk that Libya will On November 13, 2014, Abu Bakr was no second act. Neither the ment for the destroyed Syria and become the “new caliphate,” the al-Baghdadi, with uncanny strate- Americans nor the Europeans were Iraq. And Baghdadi, or someone of long-sought “Islamic State.” gic insight, released a tape in which willing to help find competent his ilk, is in charge. The decline of Libya worries the he accepted pledges of allegiance leadership. If we do nothing, Libya will cease Pentagon. In March, US Marine from supporters in Libya. Bagh- Today chaos reigns. Few are bet- to exist as a country. Instead, we Corps General Thomas D. Wald- dadi saw a splendid new stage for ter at exploiting chaos than ISIS. As will have the Islamic State, the hauser, head of the Africa Com- victory and one with deep-water Barack Obama writes his memoirs, dreamed of caliphate of ISIS, a land mand, stated in congressional where, we are reliably informed, testimony that “we are heavily crucifixion will be a common form involved in the counterterror- of punishment. ism piece” in Libya. The Africa What is coming is unimaginably Command acknowledges four air worse than Qaddafi. As US Army strikes against ISIS bases in Libya General Ray Odierno put it presci- but credible reports put the actual ently: “They want complete failure number at twice that. of the government in Iraq. They The subject of Libya is a touchy want to establish a caliphate.” one. “Boots on the ground” is a Imagine, if you are capable of it, phrase rarely used by the Trump an Islamic caliphate on the shores administration and with good rea- of the Mediterranean not far from son: 6,251 American soldiers have Italy. It is a grim vision, indeed. been killed since 2001; some 45,170 have been wounded. That is too Frank Kryza is a member of the Imagine, if you are heavy a price. We are already too Royal Institute of International capable of it, an involved in combating ISIS in Syria Affairs (Chatham House) in Islamic caliphate on and Iraq. London. For the last two decades, Is ISIS already in charge of parts he has served as Tunisia’s honorary the shores of the of Libya? Yes, it is! With the col- consul resident in Dallas. This Mediterranean not far lapse of a central government, article was originally published in different parts of the country are Reign of chaos. A 2017 file picture shows young Libyans walking the Dallas Morning News and is from Italy. It is a grim ruled by local militias. past buildings that were destroyed during clashes with ISIS reprinted with permission from the vision, indeed. What outcome can we expect? militants in Sirte. (Reuters) author. November 4, 2018 13 News & Analysis Maghreb Suicide bombing in Tunisia fans political tensions

Lamine Ghanmi Wake-up call. Policemen stand behind Tunis crime scene tape at the suicide bomb attack in Tu- spot where a nis caused more political female suicide impact than casualties. bomber set A The October 29 explo- off explosives sion, which killed no one other than on Habib the person who set if off, was rever- Bourguiba berating across Tunisia’s political avenue in landscape several days after the at- downtown tack. Tunis, on A woman set off a bomb on Tu- October 29. nis’s Habib Bourguiba Avenue, the (Khaled first terror attack in a Tunisian city Nasraoui) in three years. The shock of the at- tack whipped up divisions among Tunisian political factions and could hinder efforts to address the country’s economic slump and so- cial tensions. The bombing, which wounded 15 police officers and five civilians on Tunis’s usually crowded main thoroughfare, ended an extended period of calm in Tunisia outside sporadic incidents in remote north- western mountainous areas. Attacks targeting tourists and claimed by the Islamic State in 2015 had brought the country’s tourism industry, a key earner of foreign in 2012,” said Ammar Amroussia, a may have “hammered a new wedge sent at heart of the capital.” jib Ouerghi. currency, to a halt. An attack in No- parliamentarian from the Popular into Islamist-secularist political di- He warned that if the country’s The Interior Ministry said the vember 2015 killed 12 presidential Front, an alliance of mainly anti- vides.” leaders did not address underlying bomber was from the small coastal guards in Tunis and prompted Tu- Islamist leftist parties. The divide manifested itself in problems in Tunisia, “then terror- village of Sidi Alouane near Mahdia, nisian President Beji Caid Essebsi to “One of the Islamist leaders said the parliamentary debate, TV talk ism will bring us all down.” 200km south of Tunis. She was not declare that “Tunisia is at war with once ‘Tunisia has 50,000 policemen shows and social media. “The at- Tunisia has plunged into its worst on the police radar as a potential terrorism.” and we have 100,000 suicide bomb- tack was an opportunity for political economic and social crisis since pro- threat. Tunisian Interior Minister Hichem ers.’ Please tell us how many suicide groups to throw the worst accusa- tests toppled former President Zine “The terrorist operation showed Fourati said the October 29 bombing bombers you have now,” he added tions against one another using vio- El Abidine Ben Ali early in 2011. In- that the role of women in terrorism was an “isolated act” and praised during heated debate in parliament. lent discourse,” said political writer flation and trade and budget deficits is changing from a role in the sup- security services for their vigilance Anti-Islamist activists argued Ikhlas Latif. are at their highest levels in three port network to a more active op- and swift response. that Islamists fostered jihadism in Analysts said rekindled rifts in the decades. The overall jobless rate is erational role,” said retired National While it took several years after Tunisia and abroad, an accusation secular camp and between Ennahda at more than 15% and at more than Guard Colonel Ali Zeremdini. the shootings in 2015 for tourists to denied by Islamist leaders. Ennahda and its opponents in leftist and secu- 30% for university graduates. Experts said Tunisian female ji- return to Tunisia in sizeable num- parliament member Abdellatif Me- lar groups would only escalate until Observers said unabated tensions hadists who joined the Islamic State, bers — some 8 million visitors are kki suggested Ennahda’s foes could general elections next year. would affect the government’s abil- al-Qaeda or their affiliates in Syria expected in the country this year — be behind the bombing to halt the However, they are mostly not ity to carry out reforms and hinder and Libya represent a new challenge daily activities quickly resumed on Islamists’ momentum before elec- worried about the security situation political dialogue ahead of next for Tunisia if they duplicate at home Bourguiba Avenue after the recent tions next year. in the short term. Since the series year’s general elections. the roles they played abroad. attack. “God willing, Tunisia has the of attacks three years ago, security “Tunisia cannot really afford to “Although authorities under- The same cannot be said for Tu- manpower and equipment to eradi- agencies have largely retaken the lack an effective government or to standably tend to focus on men nisia’s political stage, however. The cate the terrorists and foil their plots initiative, dismantling jihadist cells botch preparations for what will when assessing Tunisia’s progress bombing fuelled tensions between but the question is the strange coin- and pre-empting attacks. Approxi- only be the second democratic elec- against jihadism, it is important not leftist groups and the main Islamist cidence between the terrorist agen- mately 4,000 suspects have been ar- tions in its history,” said Ayari. to downplay the security dilemmas Ennahda Movement party and wid- das and the agendas of those seek- rested, authorities said. “The result of the current political presented by female sympathisers,” ened internal divisions in the centre ing to sow chaos,” he said. Caid Essebsi said shortly after the climate is a thick layer of clouds and said Aaron Y. Zelin, a Richard Borow secularist camp whose raison d’etre International Crisis Group Senior attack: “We believed that we had anxiety billowing from every corner fellow at the Washington Institute had been to offer a counterweight to Analyst for Tunisia Michael Ayari, succeeded in eradicating terrorism of the country blurring the outlook for Near East Policy. Islamists. in a posting on the group’s website, in our cities but this latest terrorist and nullifying any process aimed “Terrorism was born in the shad- said “the most important impact incident underlined that terrorism at restoring confidence and hope to Lamine Ghanmi is an Arab Weekly ows of the Islamist-led government may be political” and the attack could still do us harm and it is pre- Tunisians,” said political writer Ne- correspondent in Tunis. Mauritania appointments reflect jockeying for succession

Lamine Ghanmi since maintained close ties and that he is difficult to be marketed Ould el Ghazouani is thought to be as the next president for many a likely successor to the president. reasons, including the compli- Tunis Another potential successor is cated balance between ethnic and Army Colonel Cheikh Ould Baya, regional interests,” Ould al Fadhel auritanian President who was appointed parliament said. Mohamed Ould Abdel speaker on October 14. Ould Baya, Ould el Ghazouani has a stronger Aziz named the coun- a prominent Arab Berber, cements support base of his own and could M try’s military chief as the president’s influence in parlia- pose a challenge to the president. defence minister, breaking a 23- ment, which is dominated by his “Marketing Ould el Ghazouani year tradition of the position being supporters. will not be difficult. He will be sup- occupied by a civilian. Previously mayor of Zouerat, an ported and accepted by the mili- In a move that might reflect important mining town in north- tary, Mauritania’s foreign partners, Ould Abdel Aziz’s desire to influ- ern Mauritania, and head of the political parties close to the gov- ence his succession, Army Chief country’s mayors’ association, ernment and even segments of the of Staff General Mohamed Ould el Ould Baya played a key role in opposition’s popular bases,” said Ghazouani was appointed to head the ruling Union for the Republic Ould al Fadhel. the Ministry of Defence, replacing party’s Reinvigoration Commit- “The main worry for the presi- veteran politician Jallow Mama- tee, which bolstered the party’s dent is that Ould el Ghazouani dou Bhatia. chances in recent parliamentary will cut the president’s influence The shift comes as Mauritania’s elections. in the regime if he ascends to the government forms a new cabinet Like Ould el Ghazouani’s min- presidency after Ould Abdel Aziz’s headed by Prime Minister Moham- isterial appointment, Ould Baya’s Next in line? Mauritanian President Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz (R) departure.” ed Salem Ould al Bachir, who re- move to be speaker broke a long- walks with new Defence Minister Mohamed Ould el Ghazouani (L) in As a result, some analysts say cently took over from Yahya Ould standing power-sharing agree- Nouakchott. (Twitter) Ould el Ghazouani’s promotion is Hademine. ment. Traditionally, the position of meant to push him out of the presi- Ould el Ghazouani, known for parliament speaker is designated dential race. strengthening ties with the French for a member of the Haratin com- bringing Ould el Ghazouani in as cessor. Analysts said the president “It is the beginning of the end for military, was tapped for the job munity. defence minister, a civil position, would either lend his support to a Ould el Ghazouani,” said political less than three months before he Haratins, Mauritania’s larg- makes him a more likely candi- confidant — such as Ould Baya — or writer Ahmed Ould Yacoub Ould was to retire as Mauritania’s high- est minority, are a distinct ethnic date. Others said the appointment a close military comrade like Ould Sidi, noting that Ould el Ghazouani est ranking army officer. group that descended largely from could shut him out of the process. el Ghazouani. Some say he is an- has less power as defence minister He was among those dismissed black African slaves. They are dis- Mauritania’s main opposition gling to have parliament vote him than he had leading the military. in 2008 by former President Sidi criminated against in the country, group has warned that the coun- in for another term. “Other comrades and broth- Mohamed Ould Cheikh Abdallahi, where many view them as an un- try’s “stability will suffer if the Political analyst Lamine Ould al ers in arms of the president were who was subsequently ousted in derclass. next president again comes direct- Fadhel said: “Ould Baya is a more forced out through the back doors a military coup. Ould Abdel Aziz, The two ministerial appoint- ly from the army ranks.” secure choice for the president” of a secretary-general of a ministry then head of the presidential ments could have implications Ould Abdel Aziz vowed to secure because he would allow Ould Ab- while the position and influence of guard, was also fired at that time for next year’s presidential race, “the continuity of the regime” af- del Aziz to retain his “influence Ould el Ghazouani dictated that he before ascending to the presiden- which Ould Abdel Aziz has ruled ter leaving office, suggesting he and authority” in the government. will go out through the gate of the cy. The two former generals have himself out of. Some said that may play a role in choosing his suc- “The problem with Ould Baya is Defence Ministry,” he added. 14 November 4, 2018 News & Analysis Palestine Israel

Viewpoint Is the Palestinian Central Council asking Abbas for the impossible?

which is at his beck and call, to issue a statement with such a heavy load? Surely he knows Adli Sadeq how difficult it would be for him to execute the recommendations of his council. he final communique It could be a public relations of the Palestinian operation. The man needs a Central Council (PCC) statement from a “central coun- meeting on October cil” to demonstrate the pressure 29 was loaded with he’s under. Maybe those ungrate- four difficult — if not ful Americans and Israelis would Timpossible — demands. give him some slack. It called for: 1) the suspen- sion of the Palestine Liberation Organisation’s recognition of the State of Israel until Israel recog- There is perhaps a nises the State of Palestine on desire to bring back the borders of June 4, 1967, with East Jerusalem as its capital; 2) the principle of the suspension of security coor- collective dination and economic relations responsibility and between the Palestinian Author- ity (PA) and Israel; 3) the con- end the stage of tinuation of efforts to establish placing decisions in an independent and sovereign Fresh blow. Israeli and Brazilian flags hang outside the building housing the offices of the Brazilian Palestinian state; 4) reclaiming the hands of just one Embassy in Tel Aviv. (AFP) Gaza from Hamas. person. The meeting was boycotted by most Palestinian national The Palestinians, however, factions, including Hamas and including those who were at the Islamic Jihad. meeting and those who boy- Brazil’s embassy There were other items in the cotted it, want something else. communique but these were less Perhaps he wanted to evade sat- significant. All items were intro- isfying their demands by appeal- duced with words such as “call- ing to the tremendous pressure ing,” “saluting” and “valuing” placed on him. move is a fresh blow but looking at the difficult four, Another explanation might perhaps these gems should have be that there is a desire by the been introduced with “wishing.” council to rebuild the Palestin- It is as if those decisions were ian political consensus and its sentimental messages unrelated mechanisms. There is perhaps a to a strong determination on the desire to bring back the principle to Palestinians part of the person who decides of collective responsibility and alone. The man who decides is end the stage of placing deci- Stephen Quillen Zuhri added on Twitter: “We re- ic, correct and exciting step.” Mahmoud Abbas, Palestinian sions in the hands of just one ject the decision of Brazilian Pres- “I told him I’m certain his elec- Authority president and head of person. Tunis ident-elect Jair Bolsonaro to move tion will lead to a great friend- Fatah movement. Maybe the council wants to the Brazilian Embassy from Tel ship between our peoples and a Abbas promised the council empower the popular will by any razil’s newly elected Presi- Aviv to Jerusalem and we call him strengthening of Brazil-Israel ties. would come out with unwaver- means available. Maybe in this dent Jair Bolsonaro reiter- to reverse his decision. We con- We are waiting for his visit to Isra- ing decisions but nobody knew despicable internal Palestinian ated that he would move sider this a hostile step against the el,” Netanyahu tweeted of a phone how they would be imple- reality, where those standing at B the country’s embassy in Palestinian people and the Arabic conversation with Bolsonaro. mented. In fact, the whole thing the top of the power pyramid Israel to Jerusalem, intensifying and Islamic world.” Central to the future of Jerusa- seemed just a matter of dis- have hit rock bottom, Abbas division over the status of the holy Bolsonaro’s foreign policy lem is a mayoral run-off November course. wanted to say that he still has city that both Israelis and Palestin- stance follows similarly conten- 13 between businessman Moshe The PA was created on terms the most important duties, just ians lay claim to. tious moves by US President Don- Lion and former Deputy Mayor of the Oslo Accords, which as dictators would do when, “As previously stated during ald Trump, who has sought to re- Ofer Berkovitch, neither of whom include recognising the State of under the pretext of confronting our campaign, we intend to trans- move the issue of Jerusalem from indicated an intent to deviate from Israel. The PA also had to accept external foes, they confiscate all fer the Brazilian Embassy from negotiations with the Israelis and Netanyahu’s policy on Jerusalem. the terms of the Paris Economic powers internally. Tel Aviv to Jerusalem,” Bolsonaro Palestinians. Lion, with the support of much Protocol, by which all supplies to One thing is for sure, however, wrote on Twitter. “Israel is a sov- Last December, Trump shocked of Jerusalem’s Ultra-Orthodox the PA’s territory enter through neither Abbas nor Hamas would ereign state and we shall duly re- many by announcing plans to community, looks poised to win Israel, which levies taxes on be able to hide the despicable spect that.” move the US Embassy to Jerusa- the election, which is being boy- them. reality of their rule. See the 149- The move, which would make lem, a step that US leaders had cotted by most Palestinian resi- As to Hamas’s control of Gaza, page report by Human Rights Brazil the third country to have long spoke of taking but never fol- dents, who claim the political it took place openly in June 2007. Watch documenting human an embassy in the city, comes as lowed through on. The US Embas- cards are stacked against them. Israel did not intervene because rights violations and torture at a fresh blow to the Palestinians. sy in Jerusalem opened officially “Any Palestinian should refuse it served its interests. The PA the hands of the PA in the West They are already struggling to on May 14, 2018 to be a part of them (the elec- could do nothing and tolerated Bank and Hamas in Gaza. cope with expanding Israeli settle- That announcement drew fierce tions),” senior Palestinian official the separation. ments, internal political divisions condemnation from international Saeb Erekat told AFP. “We will not The question is this: Why Adli Sadeq is a Palestinian writer and a US-backed peace plan in the leaders and inflamed months of accept Jerusalem as the capital of would Abbas allow a council, and political analyst. making that they see as hostile to protests on the Gaza border in Israel.” their interests. which more than 100 Palestinians Palestinians were also angered were killed. It also emboldened by Bolsonaro’s statements vow- other countries aiming to bolster Bolsonaro’s foreign policy ing support to Israel at the United ties with Israel to make the sym- stance follows similarly Nations and questioning Palestini- bolic move. contentious moves by US ans’ right to an embassy in Brasilia, Paraguay moved its embassy President Donald Trump, Brazil’s capital. to Jerusalem in May but reversed who has sought to remove “Palestine needs to be a country that decision after the election of the issue of Jerusalem from to have the right to an embassy,” President Mario Abdo Benitez in the negotiating table. Bolsonaro told the Israel Hayom August. newspaper. Guatemala, a close US ally, Aziz Abu Sarah, the only Pales- The pro-Israel pledges by Bol- opened the doors of its embassy tinian candidate to have vied for sonaro drew fierce condemnation in Jerusalem a few days after the the position, dropped out of the from Palestinian officials, who fear Americans. Romania, Honduras mayoral race a month before the changing political winds could and Australia have reportedly con- election after his residency status jeopardise their case in any peace sidered making similar moves. was questioned. settlement. Israel views such political state- “It seems that entrenched politi- “These are provocative and ille- ments as key to its exerting lev- cal interest groups on both sides gal steps that will only destabilise erage over Jerusalem, which it hope to maintain the status quo security and stability in the re- claims as an “eternal, undivided and will stop at nothing to prevent gion,” Hanan Ashrawi, a member capital.” forward progress,” he wrote on of the Palestine Liberation Organi- Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Twitter. Political manoeuvres. Palestinian President Mahmoud sation’s executive committee, told Netanyahu said he was overjoyed Abbas (2nd R) speaks during a meeting with the Palestinian Agence France-Presse (AFP). with Bolsonaro’s announced em- Stephen Quillen is an Arab Week- Central Council in Ramallah, on October 28. (AFP) Hamas spokesman Sami Abu bassy move, hailing it as a “histor- ly correspondent in Tunis. November 4, 2018 15 News & Analysis Turkey Amid shelling of Kurdish positions, Turkey plans new incursion into Syria

Thomas Seibert a bitter row over the detention of The calm a US pastor in Turkey that sent the before the Istanbul Turkish currency into a tailspin. storm. Turkey and the United States A Turkey- n a decision that is driving up have been at loggerheads over backed tensions with Washington, the Washington’s support for the Kurd- Syrian Turkish Army shelled Kurdish ish People’s Protection Units (YPG) fighter sits forces allied with the United in northern Syria, a vital US partner at the newly I renamed States in northern Syria in the fight in the fight against ISIS. Turkey re- against the Islamic State (ISIS). gards the YPG a terrorist organisa- “Salah Aldin Raising the stakes further, the tion that must not be allowed to Alaiobi” Turkish government threatened a control territory. circle in new cross-border operation east of Ankara and Washington are also the north- the Euphrates River. at odds over Turkey’s intention to western As Turkish howitzers fired into buy a Russian missile defence sys- Syrian city Syria, Turkish President Recep tem. of Afrin, on Tayyip Erdogan told lawmakers of The Turkish government seems October 9. his ruling Justice and Development in no mood to call off its new push (AFP) Party on October 30 that the army into Syria. “We have finalised our would destroy “terrorist struc- preparations, our plans, our pro- tures” east of the river, a region that grammes in that respect,” Erdogan has been off limits for the Turks. said. Pro-government Turkish media A full-scale military said Ankara’s plan is to establish a 30km-wide corridor south of the intervention east of the Turkish-Syrian border from the Euphrates could affect the Euphrates in the west to the Iraqi approximately 2,000 US border in the east. Since Turkey northern Syria to support and arm The meeting, to which the United on Twitter. troops deployed in northern secured the Syrian regions of Ja- the YPG. States was not invited, was a sign of Washington has tried to reassure Syria to support and arm the rabulus and Afrin west of the Eu- “In recent days we have started increased efforts by international Turkey that the US bond with the YPG. phrates in previous interventions, the active engagement against the powers to end the Syrian war while YPG is purely tactical, while being such a move would, in effect, end terrorist organisation,” Erdogan Washington pursues its own goals. careful not to endanger its alliance The US government expressed the Kurdish presence in the border said of the artillery shelling. An- “America stays engaged in Syria but with the YPG because the fight concern about the shelling that region. adolu reported that Turkish forces it has chosen to go it alone,” said against ISIS remains the focal point killed ten Kurdish fighters, Tur- Ankara said so-called safe zones started bombarding YPG positions Ilter Turan, a professor of interna- of the Trump administration’s Syria key’s state-owned news agency within Syria are needed for the re- east of the river on October 28. “We tional relations at Istanbul’s Bilgi policy. Anadolu said. “Unilateral military patriation of 3 million Syrian refu- will come down on the terrorist or- University. Turkey and the United States strikes into north-western Syria by gees that streamed into Turkey ganisation in a more comprehen- The Istanbul summit carried a have started joint military patrols in any party, particularly as Ameri- during the war. Turkish Defence sive and efficient operation soon,” message for developments in east- Manbij, a northern Syrian city west can personnel may be present or in Minister Hulusi Akar said 260,000 Erdogan said. ern Syria, where the United States of the Euphrates where the YPG the vicinity, are of great concern to Syrian refugees had returned to Erdogan’s announcement came and the YPG control oil fields and took control after driving out ISIS us,” US Deputy State Department Jarabulus since 2016. Critics say three days after he hosted the lead- regions of rich farmland. Joshua two years ago. The Kurdish militia spokesman Robert Palladino said. Ankara uses the return of refugees ers of Russia, France and Germany Landis, director of the Centre for agreed to withdraw from the town The Kurdish-dominated Syrian to boost the number of pro-Turkish in Istanbul. The meeting called for Middle East Studies at the Univer- earlier this year after US and Turk- Democratic Forces said it reserved Arabs in Kurdish areas. a sustained truce in the rebel-held sity of Oklahoma, said the confer- ish officials worked out a plan for “the right to retaliate.” Kurdish re- The YPG used US help to estab- province of Idlib and for the start ence strengthened players that joint patrols. bels said they destroyed a Turkish lish an autonomous region along of a political process to develop a wanted the United States to leave Turan said the Manbij agreement armoured personnel carrier on the the Turkish border east of the Eu- post-war political structure in Syria. Syria altogether. “Turkey, Syria, showed that a direct confrontation border in response to the shelling. phrates. A full-scale military inter- The summit communique did not Iran and Russia want to drive the between Ankara and Washington The escalation came after the vention could affect the approxi- include a demand for Syria’s Presi- US out of North Syria and end its al- over their different priorities in United States and Turkey resolved mately 2,000 US troops deployed in dent Bashar Assad to cede power. liance with the YPG,” Landis wrote northern Syria was not inevitable. Viewpoint Turkey’s Iran pivot may strain ties with US fter the Andrew Brun- sense, Turkey is pivoting away from son affair, the Jamal NATO and towards the two revision- Khashoggi killing and ist powers.’’ Yavuz Baydar ahead of the US mid- They also point out the Syria term elections, perhaps factor. Erdogan, a chameleon-like Turkish-American rela- pragmatist, realised that his regime- tionsA will boil down to where Turkey, change policy in Syria had backfired the NATO ally in the region, stands and joined with Turkey’s hard-line, vis-a-vis sanctions against Iran. militarist, anti-Kurdish nationalists Some argue that the situation is to take a new position. Actually, it’s not in Turkey’s favour. However, an old Turkish position but right there may be reason to believe An- now it seems new. kara is engaged in a cunning game, Clarke and Tabatabai argue that playing both sides off against each “(Iran, Russia and) Turkey have an other. Not only does it buy Turkish interest in preserving Syria’s territo- President Recep Tayyip Erdogan rial integrity, which could help them time, it raises the stakes for the avoid a possible regional fragmen- Trump administration. tation and state failure that could Turkish Islamists and national- spill over and threaten their own ists, who are anti-American, push Cunning game. Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu (L) survival.” fiercely for a break with the United and Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif attend a There is another dimension, States. Energy-dependent, crisis-hit news conference in Istanbul, on October 30. (AFP) which would have implications for Turkey gets approximately half its oil the Kurdish — and American — con- imports from Iran. stressed the determination to coop- There was talk of countries — South trolled areas of north Syria and forge He is aware that going along with erate more strongly in the interests Korea, India and, most likely, Turkey a Turkish-Iranian axis. the US sanctions will affect him of stability. This came amid US un- — declared exempt from penalties for As the article points out: “Iran where it hurts — the power he has certainty on the scope of sanctions. trading with Iran. is perhaps better positioned than arrogated to himself. Therefore, The ministers’ statement followed an If so, it will be interpreted by the United States and NATO to help Erdogan is keen to continue to apparently unsuccessful visit to Baku other countries as a pretext to raise assuage Turkish concerns regarding delicately position himself between by John Bolton, US President Donald concerns about the flawed decision the future of the Kurds… For both Russia and NATO. Trump’s national security adviser. to reimpose sanctions on Iran. Iran and Turkey, the dismember- Erdogan knows the importance At another level, calls by US A key question in any case is ment of Syria and a Kurdish split of abiding by the sanctions, too. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo whether Turkey is decisively pivot- from the country could lead to a He stretched Turkish-American asking Turkey “to side with us and ing towards Iran and Russia. It may slippery slope emboldening their relations to the breaking point over not Iran” seems to have disappeared well be so, argue Colin Clarke and Kurdish populations and creating the oil-for-gold federal court case in into a void. When asked if it was Ariane Tabatabai in an article in a threat to their territorial integrity New York, which implicates mem- a moment to question Turkey’s Foreign Affairs. They point out that and national unity.” bers of his inner circle. future as a NATO member and US shifting alignments have gained in- All these aspects show that Turkey Even before the dust settles on ally, Pompeo replied: “I hope not. It tensity and the country that stands has lots of room to manoeuvre and Turkey has lots the Khashoggi killing, Turkey has would be unfortunate for NATO. It’d out as a loose cannon is Turkey. what drives Erdogan is a new collec- of room to been outspoken in its denuncia- be unfortunate for the United States Clarke and Tabatabai said there tive, Islamist-nationalist dynamic at manoeuvre and what tion of unilateral sanctions against and I think even more unfortunate are several important reasons for home. This might prove a challenge Tehran. The message was delivered for the people of Turkey if that were Ankara’s move: ”Erdogan’s world- that Trump and his people may find drives Erdogan is a October 30 by Turkish Foreign to become the case.” view shares many tenets with those hard to overcome. new collective, Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu standing In apparent disarray, Washington of the Islamic Republic and Russia. alongside his Azerbaijani and Iranian is acting ambiguously and sending Like Moscow and Tehran, Ankara Yavuz Baydar is a Turkish Islamist-nationalist counterparts. mixed messages about the sanctions. is now more anti-Western than at journalist and regular columnist dynamic at home. The three foreign ministers In so doing, it risks losing ground. any point in recent memory. In that for The Arab Weekly. 16 November 4, 2018 News & Analysis East West Pittsburgh Muslims rally in support of Jewish terror victims

Thomas Frank shooting October 27. By the end of October, it had raised nearly Washington $220,000 from 5,300 donors. The money is to go to families of he killing of 11 Jews in a those killed to pay medical bills, synagogue prompted an funeral expenses and other im- extraordinary outpouring mediate costs. T of support from Muslims “We wish to respond to evil in Pittsburgh, the US city where with good as our faith instructs the shootings occurred. us and send a powerful message An online fundraising cam- of compassion through action,” paign initiated by the leader of campaign organisers wrote on Pittsburgh’s largest mosque shat- the fundraising home page. “We Standing together. People arrive to pay their respects in front of a memorial outside of the Tree of tered its original goals and Mus- hope to send a united message Life synagogue in Pittsburgh, on October 28. (AFP) lims have stood with the city’s from the Jewish and Muslim com- Jewish population, expressing munities that there is no place for sympathy and solidarity. this type of hate and violence in him not to visit the city. Many Rabbi James Gibson of the the shooting and joined in an in- America. We pray that this re- blamed his sharp rhetoric against Temple Sinai Synagogue in Pitts- terfaith vigil the next day. stores a sense of security and immigrants for creating an envi- burgh said he had worked at de- Some people thought the fun- By the end of October, the peace to the Jewish-American ronment that encouraged attacks veloping bonds with the city’s draising campaign was a scam, campaign, Muslims United community who has undoubt- against minority religious and Muslim leaders. Mohamed said, and that “we for Pittsburgh Synagogue, edly been shaken by this event.” ethnic groups. “We talk religion. We don’t talk just have all this money and the had raised nearly $220,000 Another internet fundraising The accused shooter, Robert politics as much,” Gibson said in Muslims are going to pocket it be- campaign, begun by a 29-year-old Bowers, who lives in a Pittsburgh an interview on CNN as he stood cause there’s no possible way we from 5,300 donors. Iranian refugee who is a graduate suburb, was charged with storm- next to Mohamed, “but we all un- could love the Jewish community student in Washington, raised $1 ing into the Tree of Life Syna- derstand we have a fierce attach- like we do.” “We will be there for them in million from 16,200 donors. gogue at the start of a religious ment to our monotheistic points After the September 11, 2001, any way we can,” Wasi Mohamed, The Muslim community’s out- ceremony, allegedly firing hand- of view and there are so many terrorist attacks on New York and executive director of the Islamic pouring highlighted the close guns and a rifle and yelling that more things that our religions the Pentagon, residents of Pitts- Centre of Pittsburgh, told ABC relations between Muslims and he wanted to “kill Jews.” Bowers have in common than divide us. burgh rallied behind the city’s News. “Not just this week but Jews in Pittsburgh, a diverse city posted on a public website anti- History may have divided us but Muslims and offered to help with next week, the next month and of 300,000 people. Pittsburgh Semitic and racist rants and com- faith brings us together.” expenses and errands, Mohamed then next year. We want to make has a well-established Jewish pared Jews to Satan. Mohamed told CNN that mem- said. sure that we keep these relation- community and a growing Mus- The attack, in which 11 people bers of his mosque called and Flight 93, the fourth airliner hi- ships.” lim population. died and seven others were in- sent text messages asking how jacked that day, crashed in south- The campaign, Muslims Unit- The camaraderie contrasted to jured, was the deadliest on a Jew- they could help as soon as they western Pennsylvania, less than ed for Pittsburgh Synagogue, hostility that many in Pittsburgh ish site in US history. Bowers was learnt about the shooting. Mo- 130km from Pittsburgh, after pas- sought to raise $25,000 when it expressed towards US President charged with killing worshippers hamed and other Muslim leaders sengers tried to retake control of was established hours after the Donald Trump when they urged ranging in age from 54 to 97. went to the synagogue the day of the plane from the hijackers.

Viewpoint When unexpected kindness offers hope

mericans were again synagogue. not lengthy, I have personally been becoming victims of bias by law traumatised by a Messidi led two very visible witness to the role Jews played firms or private clubs that refused senseless and dra- campaigns in the last two years in Philadelphia and other places admittance to Jews. Jerry Sorkin matic mass shooting following mass desecration and when Muslims purchased land to It might be unexpected that in on October 27, this vandalism at Jewish cemeteries build a mosque and neighbours these days of grim bloodshed that time during ser- in Saint Louis and Philadelphia to objected, citing “concerns of hav- a Muslim group in Pennsylvania vicesA at a synagogue in Pittsburgh, help clean-up and repair of graves. ing a mosque in their neighbour- would stand up for the well-being Pennsylvania. Mohamed offered the services hood.” of Jews targeted by a hateful The list of mass gun violence in of mosque members to guard the If there was any group of people anti-Semitic shooter. The fact that the United States seems never- synagogue, provide food for fami- that stood arm-and-arm with many Americans did not expect ending. Places such as Newtown, lies of victims, go shopping for Muslims in those situations, it was these acts of humanity and kind- Connecticut; Orlando, Florida; San them, most anything they needed quite often Jews, who never forgot ness from leaders and members of Bernardino, California; Las Vegas, to help through the crisis. the many years in 20th-century Celebrate Mercy and the Islamic Nevada; and now Pittsburgh. Most It comes as a surprise to many America during which it was the Centre of Pittsburgh shows how Americans cannot keep up with that there is any type of coopera- Jews who were prevented from preset notions and stereotypes the names and places and sadly tion between Muslims and Jews in buying land for synagogues or about Muslims and their attitudes have almost come to accept that America. While the examples are from entering certain universities, towards Jews have lowered our ex- it is just a matter of time until pectations. They should not have. they hear again that another mass The acts of humanity by Mus- shooter has brought death and lims in Pittsburgh brought to the injury to many. fore the tolerant face of Islam At such terrible times, it is hard often overshadowed by radical to find the good but it is difficult and bigoted interpretations of the to miss it when it happens. The ac- faith. tions in Pittsburgh by the Muslim There is hope that these types community bring the good from of efforts at mutual respect and an awfully tragic event. Both the cooperation continue to bridge the Pittsburgh Islamic Centre’s Execu- divide that has so often come be- tive Director Wasi Mohamed and tween the two communities based the founder of the Muslim group on old and new prejudices and on The acts of humanity Celebrate Mercy Tarek el-Messidi the inescapable ramifications of by Muslims in stepped forward in a big way in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict with words and action. its violence and bloodshed. Pittsburgh brought to Messidi’s organisation started on Goodwill between Jews and the fore the tolerant online campaign to raise $25,000 Muslims can only pave the way face of Islam often to help the victims. The fund ex- for understanding and peace in ceeded that goal within six hours. the Middle East and the rest of the overshadowed by The goal was increased to $50,000 world. radical and bigoted and again, exceeded. By the end Show of unity. Ayanna Pressley (L), Afiyah Harrigan (C) and of October, Celebrate Mercy had Harvard Muslim Chaplain Khalil Abdur-Rashid attend a vigil Jerry Sorkin is founder and interpretations of the raised more than $100,000 to help for the victims of the Pittsburgh synagogue shooting, on president of Iconic Journeys faith. the victims of the shootings at the October 30. (AFP) Worldwide and of TunisUSA. November 4, 2018 17 Debate Europe Migration remains Europe’s greatest challenge

of being front-line disembarkation points. However, it requires willing partners outside of Europe, specifi- Mark Habeeb cally North African countries that have resisted the idea. It also risks being abused: Australia operates such off-shore platforms in Nauru and Papua New he UN High Commis- Guinea where migrants have been sioner for Refugees known to languish for years. reported that, as of Similarly, Piotr Buras, head of November 2, 103,482 the Warsaw office of the Euro- migrants had arrived in pean Council of Foreign Relations, Europe in 2018. Spain, argued that “instead of focusing TGreece, Italy and Cyprus were the on fantasies like sealing borders or main points of disembarkation. building reception centres in Libya, Guinea, Syria, Morocco, Mali and the EU should improve and speed Iraq were the origins of nearly half up asylum procedures in Greece of them. and Italy to make sure that the Europe is on track to record the legal status of migrants is quickly fewest number of migrants since clarified [and] make a serious offer 2013, confirming a downward trend — involving legal channels of mi- from the peak of more than 1 mil- gration, financial aid and security lion migrant arrivals in 2015, the Lightning-rod issue. A boat carrying migrants is stranded in the Strait of Gibraltar, on cooperation — to countries of origin year that sparked Europe’s “immi- September 8. (AFP) in exchange for their readiness to gration crisis” and when immigra- take back citizens who were denied tion became the lightning-rod issue into the narratives of nationalists, dock and its human cargo to disem- asylum in Europe.” in European politics, displacing Islamophobes and racists. bark but the saga revealed starkly The challenge to Buras’s pro- fiscal and monetary issues as the The surge in popularity of politi- the centripetal forces at play in posal, which appeared in June on greatest threat to the European cians such as Hungarian Prime Europe and the disunity of the a Carnegie Europe website, is that project. Minister Viktor Orban, the Brexit union. Regardless of the number of the political atmosphere in Europe With an approximately 90% referendum in the United Kingdom immigrants during any given year, has created a contest between reduction in migrant arrivals since and the announcement by German more Aquarius-like events will fur- empathetic liberalism and populist 2015, Europe’s immigration crisis is Chancellor Angela Merkel that the ther erode the European project. illiberalism. Populists have little over, right? end of her political career is in sight Palacio, writing in June for Pro- interest in providing foreign aid to Wrong. can all be attributed in large part to ject Syndicate, pointed out that the origin countries; they would prefer While not capturing the searing anxieties created by immigration European Union, like many bureau- to seal borders. headlines of recent years, the plight and manipulated by cynical politi- cracy-heavy institutions, often Shada Islam, director of policy of migrants trying to enter Europe cians. gets by on inertia — doing nothing at the Brussels-based Friends of — and the European response — Second, the immigration issue, and waiting for circumstances to Europe, also quoted by Carnegie remains the greatest threat to the in the words of former Spanish change. “But,” she argued, “given Europe, said Europeans must rec- stability and unity of the European Foreign Minister Ana Palacio, the urgency of today’s migration ognise that: 1) neither migration nor Union. “straddles every fault line: between crisis, not even the EU will be able populists’ opposition to it are going First, much of the damage is country and community, between to muddle through. If it tries, the to end; 2) ageing Europe needs done: The migrant crisis of 2015 security and openness, between issue will only fester, eating away immigrants for fiscal and labour- was a major contributor to the rise national and European identity, at the Union’s very foundations. shortage reasons and; 3) managing of right-wing, ethno-nationalist between social values and eco- For once, Europe’s leaders have no migration requires cooperation — populism across Europe. While nomic or strategic interests.” Every choice but to put up or shut up.” no country can do it alone. those 1 million migrants represent- European schism is reflected in the What does “put up” mean? The stakes are high. Islam writes: ed a tiny fraction of the European immigration issue. Palacio favours the establish- “Europe’s future as a union of val- Union’s total population of more Palacio’s argument was appar- ment of “disembarkation” plat- ues hinges on whether it can craft than 500 million, the issue played ent in June during the plight of the forms outside Europe to determine a sensible, pragmatic and compas- MS Aquarius, a ship operated by a which migrants should be granted sionate immigration policy.” Franco-German charity that had asylum and to which European The political atmosphere in rescued 630 migrants off the coast countries they should be dis- Mark Habeeb is East-West Editor Europe has created a contest of Libya. Italy refused to allow the patched. of The Arab Weekly and adjunct Aquarius to dock at an Italian port; Palacio’s objective is sensible: professor of Global Politics and between empathetic liberalism Malta followed suit. It relieves countries such as Italy, Security at Georgetown University and populist illiberalism. Finally, Spain allowed the ship to Greece and Spain from the pressure in Washington. Is Tarek al-Wazir a face of Germany?

of the most popular politicians in approach to the world. They assess other anti-migrant parties across Hesse. Though he has served four Wazir on his merits as a politician, Europe, has run a virulent cam- Rashmee years in government — as Hesse’s no matter what he looks like or who paign against outsiders, especially Roshan Lall deputy leader and economy min- his father was. It’s fair to say Wazir Muslims and Arabs. How has Wazir ister — Wazir remarkably retains ticks some of the latter boxes. managed to stay unscathed? Is he the spiritedness and appeal of an He is certainly an eye-catching unscathed? outsider. And Wazir is seen to be a symbol of Germany’s acceptance of To hear Wazir tell it, he suffered ould a single German man on a mission. diversity. This matters, especially in from the AfD’s discriminatory regional election be a On Election Day, he delivered. He Hesse, home to Frankfurt, Ger- politics long before the party was hopeful template for led his party to triumph of a sort. many’s banking and air transport founded in 2013. Growing up in tomorrow? Though it didn’t win outright, the hub. Wazir’s political high profile 1970s Germany, he faced discrimi- Perhaps. Consider this. Hesse Greens doubled their share undoubtedly helps Germany present nation. He has spoken about the Hesse, Germany’s of the vote. Their performance itself to an international audience. challenges of living in a society that Cmost prosperous region, voted Oc- guaranteed the Greens a place in the His rise came even as far-right labelled Italians “spaghetti-eaters” tober 28 amid election posters em- new regional coalition government sentiment was beginning to surge. and considered people like him a blazoned with “Tarek statt GroKo,” and Wazir the chance to continue as In the past few years, the AfD, like “foreigner.” which translates as “Tarek instead of Hesse’s deputy leader. This makes That was presumably the case GroKo.” The GroKo reference was to Wazir one of Germany’s few politi- even in Offenbach, the city where Germany’s fractious, federal grand cians (and possibly the only promi- Wazir spent his boyhood. It has coalition made up of the traditional nent one) with an Arab background. Germany’s largest proportion of parties of government and headed Is he an oddity or an opportunity people with a migrant background by Chancellor Angela Merkel. for Germany 2018? Perhaps he is but Offenbach was still probably of “Tarek” is Tarek Mohammed al- both. Wazir’s Greens secured nearly its times. Wazir, a star of the Green Party and 20% of the state vote at the same Happily, though, Wazir symbolises the dual-national son of a German time the hard-right Alternative for our times. He said the Greens’ suc- teacher and a Yemeni diplomat. Germany (AfD) tripled its electoral cess is because the party has taken How did the German Greens dare support to approximately 13%. a “clear stance” against the AfD. to pose that juxtaposition in a coun- Wazir is an oddity in a generally “All other parties have gone crazy try in which the far right is inexora- blonde, blue-eyed political system. about the AfD,” he told Frankfurter bly on the rise? He is a visually distinct politician, Allgemeine Zeitung. “We defend a Hesse’s election is a lesson in with a name that marks him out and society that is open to the world and retail politics — a good salesman an agenda that is broadly focused multifaceted.” can always sell a good product, no on a liberal, progressive plan for ac- Married to a Yemeni woman and matter his ethnicity, especially if his tion. Wazir is also an opportunity to the father of two children, Wazir is wares are judged wholesome. showcase the 21st-century German a strong voice for ending German It’s been a while since Wazir, 47, narrative of a country at ease with arms shipments that could worsen first topped opinion polls as one itself and those within its borders. the Yemen War. Wazir serves as a reminder there At the end of the day, that’s a are many Germanys, including one pretty standard sort of Green politics How did the German that votes for the far-right AfD. The for all that Wazir is an unusual Ger- AfD base is strong enough nationally man politician. Greens dare to pose that to allow the party a presence in all 16 juxtaposition in a country state legislatures. Rashmee Roshan Lall is a columnist But there are also the many Ger- A man on a mission. Tarek al-Wazir leaves the for The Arab Weekly. Her blog can be in which the far right is man voters in search of a coherent polling station after he cast his vote for the Hesse found at www.rashmee.com and she inexorably on the rise? plan for governance and a reasoned state election in Offenbach, on October 28. (AP) is on Twitter: @rashmeerl. 18 November 4, 2018 Economy

Egypt to invite oil firms to explore Briefs Libya’s NOC for hydrocarbons in Red Sea demands pay increases for Amr Emam workers

Libyan state oil firm National Cairo Oil Corporation Chairman Mustafa Sanalla asked the country’s central gypt plans to invite inter- bank for a 67% salary increase for national petroleum compa- oil workers in 2019. nies to explore for oil and Libya in 2013 approved such a E gas in its territorial Red Sea pay rise but it was never imple- waters before the end of the year. mented because Libya’s chaos Egyptian Minister of Petroleum accelerated and the country split Tarek al-Mulla said the process in two governments the following would be announced after the pro- year while blockages and protests cessing of seismic data collected by hampered production. two international oilfield services companies. (Reuters) US company Schlumberger and British firm TGC invested a com- bined $750 million on seismic sur- veys off Egypt’s Red Sea coast. The two companies started work in the Algeria’s area in March and the data collect- ed, the Ministry of Petroleum said, Sonatrach are being processed. The ministry said it expects huge interest in it signs offshore because of Egypt’s reputation in in- ternational energy markets. exploration deals Egypt became an important spot on the international oil and gas map High hopes. A fishing boat sails in the Mediterranean Sea near an oil station in Alexandria. (Reuters) Algeria’s state energy firm after major finds were made off its Sonatrach has signed deals with Mediterranean coast. The discover- France’s Total and Italy’s Eni for ies include the Zohr Field, which national companies to invest such “This translated into more in- Saudi Arabia started tapping its the first oil explorations off the contains confirmed reserves of 850 huge amounts of money in Egypt vestments in the petroleum sector Red Sea potential in 2009 when the North African country’s Mediter- billion cubic metres of gas. boosted the country’s image in in- and consequently more finds,” said Saudi Aramco conducted a seismic ranean coast. ternational oil and gas markets, the petroleum expert Ramadan Abul survey that indicated natural gas. Sonatrach previously an- Petroleum Ministry said. Ela. In 2013, it discovered three oil and nounced it would start explora- There are expectations in “International oil and gas com- Self-sufficiency means a lot for two gas fields. tory drilling in the waters in early Egypt that the Red Sea panies know that this country has the Egyptian economy. Egypt pays There are expectations in Egypt 2019 while Algeria looks to stem a will be the next major a lot to give them,” said Hamdi $1.2 billion a month to meet its en- that the Red Sea will be the next decline in its overall oil output. exploration frontier. Abdel Aziz, the spokesman of the ergy needs. A large portion of that major exploration frontier. Cairo The deals with Total and ministry. “This is why we expect amount is expected to be saved as has confirmed reserves of approxi- Eni cover the “exploration and high interest among international energy production increases. mately 6 billion barrels of crude oil evaluation of the oil potential of Zohr was one of four major gas companies in the expected bid for This is why there is national en- and 23 billion cubic feet of natural the eastern and western parts wells that came online in Egypt exploration in the Red Sea.” thusiasm in exploring for oil and gas, the Petroleum Ministry said. of the Algerian offshore basin,” in the past year, allowing Egypt to The government’s repayment gas off the Red Sea coast opposite Abdel Aziz described data col- Sonatrach said in a statement. achieve self-sufficiency with 6.7 bil- of billions of dollars in debt to for- Saudi Arabia. Maritime borders be- lected by Schlumberger and TGC as Eni said the agreements “in- lion cubic feet of daily production. eign petroleum companies has also tween the two Arab countries were “very positive.” clude an exclusive partnership for The government stopped imports boosted the level of interest. Egypt, not demarcated until April 2017 “There are strong possibilities for offshore exploration in Algeria.” in October and is expected to re- which owed $6.3 billion to foreign when the governments signed a the discovery of large amounts of sume gas exports next year petroleum companies in 2012, has deal that included the handover of gas and crude oil in the area,” Abdel (Agence France-Presse) Foreign and local companies reduced the debts to $1.2 billion two Saudi islands that had been un- Aziz said. “This will be very encour- spent $27 billion in developing the and expects to pay off the remain- der Egypt’s administrative control aging for international oil and gas four wells. The willingness of inter- der before the end of 2019. since the 1950s. companies.”

Viewpoint Egypt reaches agreement with Kuwaiti crude exports to US at record low IMF on loan

finds it financially advantageous State oil firm Kuwait Petroleum United States. payment to place extra barrels eastward. Corporation called reports of zero Several factors likely influenced Since the first Gulf War, Kuwait exports to the United States “inac- the slide in US imports of Kuwaiti Egypt has reached an agreement Jareer Elass has been a dedicated crude sup- curate and [they] do not explain crude. Thanks to the sustained with the International Monetary plier to the United States, consist- the implications of a reduction in boom in domestic output, US net Fund (IMF) on release of the next ently among the top ten exporting the rate of exports between the oil imports have been falling. The $2 billion loan instalment, the fifth countries to which it has turned to two countries.” EIA predicted that the country’s under the country’s 3-year aid pro- help meet domestic consumption The Kuwaitis understandably net imports will fall a further 60% gramme, the IMF announced. needs. may not have wanted public this year compared to 2017 to the The agreement is subject to ap- As Kuwait struggled to recover attention being paid to the loss lowest levels since 1958. proval by the IMF executive board. oil production and exports after of Kuwaiti crude in the United US refineries still require The loan programme for Egypt its fields and facilities were dam- States, temporary as it may have imports of heavy crude but a was signed in November 2016 and aged by the Iraqi military, the been. supplier such as Kuwait is facing with this payment Cairo will have United States was an early benefi- For decades, the reasoning for stiffer competition from exporters received $10 billion of the total. ciary of Kuwait’s resumed crude dedicated oil sales to the United closer to the US market. operations. States for Gulf producers such as Though the United States has (Agence France-Presse) Data collected by the US Depart- Kuwait and Saudi Arabia has been been exporting crude to Asia, ment of Energy’s Energy Informa- politically motivated as much as market economics provide more tion Administration (EIA) indicate economically driven. By keeping incentive for Asian buyers to that Kuwait’s crude deliveries the oil flowing consistently to look for less costly alternatives to the United States exceeded the US market, Gulf states felt a from Kuwait and other suppliers. Turkey central 450,000 barrels per day (bpd) in measure of security that Washing- Several of Iran’s Asian customers the latter half of 1993. In October ton would be quick to militarily reduced or stopped purchases of bank sharply 1993, US imports of Kuwaiti crude intervene should a crisis arise. Iranian crude prior to the Novem- hit a peak of 526,000 bpd. Saudi Arabia diligently worked ber 4 imposition of US sanctions raises inflation Kuwait gradually slipped to for decades to maintain its posi- targeting Tehran’s oil, opening tenth on the US list of top crude tion as the top crude supplier to supply gaps that Kuwait has forecasts or the first time in 25 suppliers. US imports of Kuwaiti the United States. Riyadh regular- helped plug. years, Kuwait did not crude dropped more than 50% ly sent more than 1.5 million bpd While Kuwait’s crude exports Turkey’s central bank sharply export any crude oil to over five years from 303,000 bpd to the US market before deciding to the United States, which never raised its inflation forecasts for the United States over in 2012 to 144,000 bpd last year. in the mid-2000s to focus on the were substantial, have signifi- this year and next, predicting a a 4-week period. The EIA tracking showed that US im- more lucrative Asian market and cantly declined, they are unlikely rate of 23.5% by the end of 2018 development should ports of Kuwaiti crude averaged opt for being merely one of the to end completely. If nothing else, and acknowledging the deep effect Fnot be perceived as a politi- approximately 102,000 bpd in the top crude sellers to the United the Kuwaitis wish to ensure that of a lira sell-off that has shaken cal slight by the Gulf producer. first seven months of 2018. How- States. this important economic con- confidence in country’s economy. Rather, economic considerations ever, it was the 4-week period that Kuwait, which has a crude pro- nection to Washington remains. The Turkish currency has fallen by Kuwait, booming US domestic ended September 28 that showed duction capacity of around 3.15 However, the diminished role of nearly one-third against the dol- oil production and US sanctions zero imports of Kuwaiti crude and million bpd, also shifted its export US imports of Kuwaiti oil suggests lar this year, driving up the cost against Iranian oil contributed caught people’s attention. strategy to favour the oil-hungry that the Gulf producer is more of food and fuel and deepening to the absence of Kuwaiti crude Subsequent EIA tabulations Asian markets as its capacity grew focused on the bottom line than investor concern about the fallout exports to America. covering 4-week periods for in recent years. Last year, approxi- about a theoretical guarantee of for the economy and banking Kuwaiti oil is not totally disap- October 5, October 12 and Octo- mately 80% of Kuwait’s crude US security. sector. pearing from the United States but ber 19 indicate a modest return exports were shipped to Asian the volumes will probably be mar- of Kuwaiti oil, with an average of customers, with the remaining Jareer Elass is a Washington-based (Reuters) ginal because the Gulf producer 35,000 bpd. 20% split between Europe and the energy analyst. November 4, 2018 19 Economy

Morocco’s 2019 finance bill to prioritise social issues

Saad Guerraoui

Casablanca

he Moroccan govern- ment’s $46.5 billion 2019 finance bill is a follow-up T to Moroccan King Moham- med VI’s call for urgent action ad- dressing social issues, in particular health and education, in the coun- try. The government allocated $10 billion to health care and educa- tion, Minister of Economy, Trade and Finances Mohamed Ben- chaaboun told parliament. Some $7.1 billion is to go to education, including $220 million for the Tay- ssir programme for children, he said. Benchaaboun said the govern- ment “is paying special attention to the implementation of the re- form of the education and training system, with a focus on the qualifi- cation of young people to facilitate their access to the labour market, while giving priority to job-gener- ating specialties and adopting an efficient approach to early orienta- tion.” The plans call for the construc- tion of 137 schools and 15,000 budgetary positions to boost hu- man resources in the education sector. The sector has gone through many reforms through several dec- A focus on health and education. A Moroccan professor works with his team at the Sidi Mohamed Ben Abdellah University in Fez. (AFP) ades, without much improvement. Data indicate that three-quarters of Moroccan children cannot read needs of employers. budget amounts were not enough more than a year to improve our ticular heed to supporting the or write after four years of primary New youth training and qualifi- to solve the problems in the conditions, including security at programmes of the National Ini- school. cation centres will be opened with health-care sector. the hospitals, the hiring of more tiative for Human Development “Reforming education with the support of the Hassan II Fund “The budget allocated to the doctors and the acquisition of by allocating $190 million a year more schools and teachers is not for Economic and Social Develop- health-care sector is still shy of the equipment to fulfil patients’ in- to reduce the deficit of infrastruc- the solution. The government ment in accordance with royal in- 10% required by the World Health creasing demands,” said Alaoui. ture and basic services in under- needs to properly address and as- structions. Organisation,” said Alaoui. He said several doctors across equipped areas, support people in sess the chronic problems that The government allocated $2.9 the country submitted collective precarious situations and improve were behind the crisis in the edu- billion to the health-care sector, 100,000 additional resignations because of the gov- the income and economic integra- cation sector,” said financial ex- including $732 million in the form students would be ernment’s failure to meet their de- tion of young people. pert Lotfi Abourizk. “The quality of commitments for the construc- enrolled in preschool mands. The bill allocates $360 million in of education needs a thorough re- tion and equipment of the Uni- Benchaaboun said 2019 would payment appropriations and $420 evaluation. The finance bill seeks versity Hospital Centres of Rabat, education programmes. mark the beginning of the imple- million of commitment appropria- to punctually reform education Tangier, Agadir, Marrakech and SIMSP earlier issued a statement mentation of the “Health 2025″ tions to the programme for com- but is there any visibility in the fu- Oujda, as well as the creation of that the health-care sector was go- plan to promote citizens’ access bating spatial and social disparities ture?” 4,000 budgetary positions. ing through a structural crisis that to quality health services and in rural areas through the Rural Benchaaboun said 100,000 ad- Moulay Abdellah el-Montadar “does not respond to the aspira- improve reception conditions in Development Fund. ditional students would be en- Alaoui, secretary-general of the tions of the citizens and led to se- hospitals through strengthening rolled in preschool education pro- Independent Union of Public Sec- vere and chronic structural defects hospital infrastructure and mobili- Saad Guerraoui is a contributor grammes and vocational training tor Doctors (SIMSP), welcomed and imbalances.” sation of medicine. to The Arab Weekly on Maghreb will be revamped to meet changing the move but said the proposed “We have been militating for The government will pay par- issues.

Viewpoint Despite fourth largest oil reserves, Iraq faces chronic electricity shortages

Nazli Tarzi s oil production in The deal with Siemens came Iraq increases after after a gas turbine project the years of prolonged company was brought on board decline, the country for never took form. The slow is back to fourth revival of oil fields in Qayarah and place among global Zubair has not been felt in the gas oilA producers. The effect of the market, whose reliance on inef- Islamic State’s lightning assault ficient oil-fuelled power plants has proven minimal on the oil continues, as does the deteriora- market a year after declarations tion of living standards and rolling of victory were criticised for the electricity blackouts, contradic- glamourised version of liberation tions that cannot be ignored at the they pushed. heart of Iraq’s oil market. Can it be said that an oil revo- The revolution many predicted lution is in the works, as some does not disguise these glaring analysts predict? contradictions, most visible in the Now producing 4.78 million bar- port city of Basra, where lucra- rels per day (bpd), as the head of tive oil sales bore no fruit for the the National Oil Company stated, country’s destitute masses. Iraq boasts the world’s fourth- Efforts to raise generating ca- largest oil reserves after Saudi pacity have not been matched by Arabia, Canada and Iran. an appetite to cut poverty rates, As for the country’s inhabitants, which raises further questions of Efforts to raise “we only see a growing tally of oil’s potential to offer the good invisible gains,” Rashid, a 21-year- Slow revival. An employee walks at the Zubair oil and gas field in life its wealth promises. In early generating old activist, said. While Iran takes Basra, last May. (AFP) October, Oil Minister Jabar Ali a hit after sanctions were imple- al-Luaibi promised that all new capacity have not mented by the Trump administra- contracts would be required to been matched by tion, Iraq plays catch-up. done little to topple the sectarian aid but will such monetary gains employ a workforce that was 85% an appetite to cut Despite the greater strides the status quo. distract the government from its Iraqi. petro-state hopes to take, Iraqi of- The signing of an agreement duties towards its people? However, if the outcome of poverty rates, ficials cannot expect the journey between Baghdad and two firms Part of the deal “was snatched these new stipulations is not en- which raises to be smooth. Roadblocks, includ- — General Electric and Siemens by US conglomerate General hanced living standards and self- ing underinvestment in non-oil — stimulated optimism among Electric” after US President Don- repairing infrastructure “the gov- further questions sectors, a severe shortage of investors. Other projects include a ald Trump called outgoing Iraqi ernment will have to do better,” of oil’s potential to power capacity and absent state Japanese-funded plan that stalled Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, Mahmoud said. The real question offer the good life services, will devastate growth. after the Islamic State’s takeover said Ahmad al-Mahmoud, a senior for him is whether the goal is real The areas around major oil instal- of north-western territories. The researcher at London-based op- change or to keep Iraq’s resources its wealth lations have been sites of consist- venture to erect a new plant is to position group Foreign Relations under the control of its alliance of promises. ent protests but the protests have resume with Japanese financial Bureau — Iraq. investors and business friends. 20 November 4, 2018 Society Religion Egypt Religious child centres in Egypt breed extremism

Amira Fikri popular neighbourhoods, villages and the countryside where they are assured of people’s protective Cairo silence out of a sense of religious duty. here has been a great deal Generally, the centres publicis- of anger expressed by ing their activity as mere houses members of the Egyptian for teaching the Quran to chil- T parliament about extrem- dren, then expand their activities ist teachings in kindergartens and to become educational environ- day-care centres belonging to Is- ments competing with official lamist movements and run by reli- schools belonging to the Ministry gious societies. Their outrage has of Education. The difference is shed light on how much children’s that the curricula and educational centres without government over- approaches in the parallel schools sight have become incubators for are decided by those who manage extremist thought. them. Parliament member Mahmoud It is common for mosques in Badr pointed out in a petition to Egypt to have Quranic schools Parliament Speaker Ali Abdel Aal attached to them. It has become and Prime Minister Mostafa Mad- common also to find hospitals, Is- Hopes and challenges. A view of the dome of the Church of the Virgin Mary on the northern outskirts bouli that the teaching children lamic wedding halls and halls for of Cairo. (AFP) receive at the institutions uses Is- receiving condolences attached lamic heritage that suits Salafist, to mosques. Those operating the al-Jama’a al-Islamiyya and Mus- mosques collect donations to help lim Brotherhood doctrines. the poor or those about to get Young children are supposedly married or to help cover the cost taught at the centres to depend of educating children in the ways Egypt’s Christians on heritage as defined by Salafist of the Quran and the Prophet’s teaching and to avoid critical Sunnah. Neither the Ministry of thinking. Endowments nor the Social Secu- Most families that place their rity Administration has supervi- children at such Islamist cen- sion of these activities. ambivalent about tres and kindergartens seem to Mohamad Rizk, who lives in al- be of modest backgrounds and Matriyah neighbourhood in north- mostly uneducated. Managers of ern Cairo, said he removed his two mosques with attached educa- daughters from an educational tional centres convince people centre belonging to an association church licensing law that their schools are the best called Mohammad’s Sunnah be- qualified to teach children true re- cause it taught that religion con- ligion, unlike state schools where trols all aspect of life. “Whenever Amr Emam lation isf Muslim, that is practi- governors would decide on the religious education has become I talked with my children about cally impossible. request within four months. If marginal. something, all I hear from them is In 1972, President Hosni they turn down the requests, the Ghazi Sabri, a cobbler who owns ‘It’s haram.’ Even watching TV is Cairo Mubarak ordered governors to governors must explain why. a small shoe repair shop in Ain forbidden,” he said. investigate church construction The slow work pace of the pan- Shams in northern Cairo, is illit- Rizk said that when he had he certification of dozens licensing requests. However, the el is cause for concern among the erate. Sabri said he registered his asked the centre’s managers about of unlicensed churches required official paperwork ham- Christians. son in an Islamic kindergarten the courses offered, he was told has given hope to Egypt’s pered any progress. Halim said most of the unli- but he knows nothing about the they were intended for Muslim T Christians that disap- Christians prayed at home, ei- censed churches included in the curriculum there. The important children. Rizk mentioned that he pointment and delays associated ther turning their residences into lists submitted by representa- thing for him, he said, was that had noticed a quick change in his with the restoration or construc- unofficial houses of worship or tives of the three main churches his son grows up having learnt the daughters’ behaviour. They spoke tion of churches are about to constructing unlicensed church- to the government panel have Quran by heart and knowing his in Classical Arabic and started end. However, many other Chris- es. This created friction with been shut down by the police. religious duties. looking suspiciously at the other tians said the law does not go far Egyptian Muslims, which some- These types of educational insti- members of the family as if they enough. times turned violent. tutions are either part of mosques were committing a sacrilege. A government panel that con- The 120 churches recently Egypt’s Christians or belong to charities or religious Even the names of the religious siders requests by Christians for licensed by the government complained that the 5,000 societies. They amass hefty treas- schools give the impression that the renovation of old churches brought the number of churches churches — including uries from donations and fees by they are in a state governed by Is- or the construction of new ones whose construction was legalised 3,000 Coptic churches — playing on people’s religious af- lamists. There are many schools approved the licensing of 120 since April to 340. Those were are not sufficient to meet finities and convincing citizens named after famous Islamic fig- churches that had already been churches that are receiving ret- their needs and many of modest means that they are the ures or bearing names such as built but had been without offi- roactive approval and licensing, Christians must travel only alternative for teaching chil- “Muslim Bibi,” “Islam’s Light,” cial protection or designation. part of a 2016 law that allowed long distances to attend dren the foundations of Islam. “Islamic Taqwa,” “Eternal Eden” “Such moves will hopefully re- for the licensing of churches in services. What is interesting is that the and “Muslim Buds.” With names duce anger among the Christians Egypt for the first time. Egyptian government in April like those, one is sure courses and open the door for solving a Many welcomed the approval 2016 ordered the closure of all there are based on religion. big problem for them,” said Polis for churches’ licensing but others “This is an investment wasted,” Quranic schools, all private train- Education expert Kamal Halim, spokesman of the Coptic want the licensing authority to he said. “The number of func- ing institutions for clerics and Mughaith has pointed out the Orthodox Church. speed up its operations because tional churches remains far from proselytisers and all Islamic cul- danger presented by educational Licensing the construction or of the reported 3,370 churches enough for the Christians while tural centres belonging to civil so- institutions attached to mosques. restoration of churches was once seeking retroactive licences. their number keeps growing.” cieties. This means that religious Children attending the schools nearly impossible for Egypt’s “This means that only 10% of President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, schools active in the country are grow up believing that religion is Christian community of approxi- the church licensing requests the first Egyptian leader to regu- doing so illegally and far from the everything in life and any other mately 10 million. Egypt’s Chris- submitted by the churches to larly attend Christmas celebra- watchful eye of the government. idea or aspect is haram. tians complained that the 5,000 the government panel were ap- tions since becoming taking of- There is a concentration of the churches — including 3,000 Cop- proved,” said Ishak Ibrahim, the fice in 2014, has taken personal religious education centres in Amira Fikri is an Egyptian writer. tic churches — are not sufficient head of the Religious Freedoms responsibility for the protection to meet their needs and many Section at local rights group of his country’s Christians. Christians must travel long dis- Egyptian Initiative for Personal “Do not let anybody ask about tances to attend services. Rights. “This is far from enough.” your religion,” Sisi told the Chris- This highlights challenges for tians on Christmas Eve 2015. the Christian minority, with the The 120 churches recently “Tell them you are Egyptian government panel still dealing only.” licensed by the government with licensing approvals made Nonetheless, some say the 2016 brought the number of more than two years ago. law is discriminatory because it churches whose The law makes it necessary deals with Christian houses of construction was legalised for legal representatives of the worship in a separate way than since April to 340. Orthodox Church, the Catholic the construction and restoration Church and the Anglican Church of mosques. to submit requests for the licens- “The same conditions must be Under previous administra- ing of churches. The panel, which applied to the construction of tions, church construction or includes concerned government the churches and the mosques restoration was a virtual impos- agencies, studies the requests since Christians and Muslims are sibility. In 1934, Interior Minister and decides whether they should citizens of the same state,” Chris- al-Ezabi Pasha laid out ten condi- be approved. tian writer Kamal Zakhir said. tions for approving the construc- As for the construction of new “Why should Christians find it tion of churches, including not churches, the law says Christians that hard to construct their own allowing the churches to be built must submit requests to the gov- churches, whereas mosque con- near the homes of Muslims. In a ernors of the provinces where struction is the easiest thing Parallel schools. Children recite verses from the Quran at a country where 90% of the popu- the church would be built. The Muslims can do?” religious centre in Cairo. (Reuters) November 4, 2018 21 Society Palestine

Israel’s cultural war with Palestinians scathes Israeli liberals

Mamoon Alabbasi Sanctions (BDS). The campaign says it uses peaceful means to hold Israel accountable for its al- London leged crimes. It often compares the plight of Palestinians to that of he Israeli government is South Africans under Apartheid, pushing for legislation arguing that cultural and academ- that would cut funding ic sanctions can yield results. T for works of art deemed BDS boasted of convincing some not “loyal” to the state, reportedly 20 acts to withdraw from Israel’s aimed at Israeli citizens of Pales- Meteor Festival in September. tinian origin, but the move was The campaign claimed a semi- met with concern by the country’s victory when the Eurovision con- liberals. test decided to have its 2019 song The measure, put forward by Is- competition in Tel Aviv instead of raeli Culture and Sports Minister Jerusalem. Israel wanted to be in Miri Regev, proposes to authorise Jerusalem but BDS campaigners the finance and culture ministries objected to having it anywhere in to withdraw funding from art pro- Israel. jects that question the official nar- There is a war of narratives over rative of the country’s founding Jerusalem at UNESCO. A resolu- and Jewishness. tion in October reiterated that Works of art regarding the expe- “all legislative and administrative riences of Palestinians during the measures and actions taken by Is- establishment of Israel in 1948, for rael, the occupying power, which example, would fall into that cate- have altered or purport to alter the gory. Another example is criticism character and status of the Holy of the recently passed law that City of Jerusalem… are null and defines Israel as a Jewish state, void and must be rescinded forth- which many say would contra- with.” dict the democratic nature of the The resolution pleased the Pal- country. Highlighting the plight of estinians because, in addition to War of narratives. Artists paint murals on Israel’s controversial separation barrier in the West Bank Palestinians living under military its stance on Jerusalem, it referred city of Bethlehem. (AFP) occupation is another expected to the Old City of Hebron, which no-go area. hosts holy Jewish and Muslim sites, as “an integral part of the Oc- pend on public funding controlled unhappy with the political direc- “You can see the dangerous pro- cupied Palestinian Territory.” by the government, will not be the tion of their art. cess taking place in Israel… I think Some Israeli artists have Israel blasted the resolution as salvation of Israel’s dissipating The government, too, is showing the culture war in Israel [within] complained of verbal and an example of anti-Israel bias but freedom of expression. Nor will less tolerance of dissenting views. Israeli society is more danger- physical violence by it nevertheless claimed to have salvation come from Israeli audi- “In recent years, Israel’s parlia- ous than any other war that Israel members of the public made a diplomatic achievement ences trapped in the warm consen- ment has passed a series of com- went through,” he told Haaretz, unhappy with the political by making sure that it was non- sus over the right-wing ideological bative, censorial laws, including The cultural war that is affecting binding. path,” wrote Israeli author Akiva legislation limiting the funding Israeli liberals could be a wake-up direction of their art. While such battles are against Eldar for Al-Monitor website. of human rights organisations,” call for the country’s mainstream. an outside enemy, critics say the “The masses will only take to wrote Marisa Mazria-Katz and The more highly educated lead- The proposed law appears to “loyalty” bill would restrict free- the streets on the day that singers Mairav Zonszein in the New York ers of Israel’s judiciary, military, be part of a war of narratives be- dom of speech not just for Arab Is- and entertainment artists from Is- Review of Books. universities, business and media, tween Israelis and Palestinians. raelis but also for Israeli liberals at rael and around the world decide “The tacit acceptance of pockets including President Reuven Rivlin, Palestinians often accuse Israel of a time when artists are exercising to stay away from the popular of dissent — once touted as proof now speak of the need to restore appropriating their food and drink self-censorship. Eurovision song contest or from of Israel’s vibrant democracy and ‘mamlachtiyut,’ which roughly cultures and even laying claim to Some 1,000 people, included other performances taking place diversity — is vanishing even from translates as ‘state institutional their wine. They say Israel aims leading theatre and film personali- in countries [that] blindly follow this liberal redoubt (Tel Aviv).” dignity’,” wrote Israeli author Ber- to wipe out Palestinian culture by ties, took to the streets to protest censorship — countries like Israel,” Award-winning Israeli film-mak- nard Avishai in the New Yorker. claiming it as its own. the bill but observers said their ef- he added. er Shlomi Eldar warned against an Culture is also a battlefield for forts were not enough. Some Israeli artists have com- increasing right-wing intolerance Mamoon Alabbasi is Deputy the pro-Palestinian campaign “Theatre actors, directors and plained of verbal and physical of the Supreme Court of Israel and Managing Editor and Online known as Boycott, Divestment, playwrights, whose creations de- violence by members of the public of liberal media and organisations. Editor of The Arab Weekly. Viewpoint Israel’s appropriation of Palestinian food is illegitimate forgery

wners of Palestinian Inviting celebrity chefs to cook restaurants abroad meals and branding them as Israeli say they have a will not convince the world that Yousef Alhelou duty to show the falafel is Israel’s national snack. rich culture of their Palestinians are proud of their people through the food and they are provoked if they Omaps, posters, photographs and see food stalls in markets in Eu- handmade crafts decorating the rope or in the United States selling interiors of their dining areas. falafel sandwiches branding it as It is a voluntary process to raise an Israeli national dish. awareness in the face of Israeli at- Planting olive groves and citrus tempts to forge history by, in part, orchards and figs are part of the appropriating Palestinian cuisine. Palestinian culture because olives Fierce cultural wars often break and pickles are a must on the Pal- out when Palestinian meals are estinian food table. mislabelled as Israeli. There is no better taste for Pales- Palestinian culture and life re- tinians and others from the Levan- volve around food in every aspect, tine countries of Jordan, Syria and whether it is an ordinary day or Lebanon than to have a breakfast a special occasion. Food and na- that contains za’atar-dried thyme tional identity are tied together. dipped in olive oil with a cup of tea Lovers of Palestinian cuisine More than what’s on a plate. A Palestinian man makes falafel, a with fresh mint or dried sage. If know where to find their favourite traditional dish consisting of fried chickpeas, on a street in Nablus. (AFP) people want to go heavy, they can Palestinian dishes. have fowl, hummus and falafel. The Maramia cafe — “maramia” It is true that food is about is an Arabic word that means traditional homemade handicrafts Israel was established in 1948. memory and culture but claiming “sage” — is one of the few places and embroideries. Shakshuka is A large percentage of the Israeli ownership over certain dishes that that offer the taste of Palestine also the name of a Palestinian dish society consists of Arab Jews who is not part of your cuisine does not in Britain. It offers authentic consisting of eggs poached in a migrated after the formation of give any one a right to label it as dishes such as musakhan, maqlu- sauce of spiced tomatoes, green the nascent state of Israel 70 years his national meal. ba, mansaf, hummus, falafel, peppers and chopped onions. ago. They took with them “Arabic” Cultural appropriation is a de- shakshuka and the kunafa dessert. These restaurants serve as a authentic meals from countries nial to the existence and heritage Cooking styles vary by region hub to Palestinian communities, such as Iraq, Morocco and Yemen. of the owners of the land — the You cannot call and each type and the ingredients through which people tell their The argument revolves on Palestinians in their millions in- hummus, falafel or used are generally based on the stories, keep history alive and naming the dishes as Israeli. Even side the occupied Palestinian terri- climate and location in historic bring people closer to their home- calling them “Middle Eastern” or tories, in refugee camps in some shakshuka Israeli Palestine. land while listening to Palestinian “Levantine” dishes would calm Arab countries or in the diaspora dishes even if the Dining in restaurants such as music and even learn Arabic in the the debate a bit. worldwide. world’s top Shakshuka in central London, Palestinian dialect. Palestinians often refer to makes one think of home, espe- While the recipes vary, one thing attempts to appropriate their cul- Yousef Alhelou is a Palestinian celebrity chefs cially seeing posters of icons of is clear, you cannot call hummus, ture and cuisine as “Israeli Forg- journalist living in London. He tried to convince the Palestinian struggle such as falafel or shakshuka Israeli dishes ing Strategy,” aimed at stripping attended Oxford University on a 16-year-old Ahed Tamimi and even if the world’s top celebrity them of their identity through the Reuters fellowship in journalism you that they are Yasser Arafat as well as Muslim chefs tried to convince you that theft of their cuisine as if occupy- and is pursuing a master’s degree Israeli. and Christian holy places and they are Israeli. ing their land were not enough. in international relations. 22 November 4, 2018 Culture Interview Algerian culture minister says Arabs face ‘existential challenges’

withstood the “Arab spring” could to take to rescue Arabs as a revolutions that shook Tunisia, nation from the dangers extrem- Libya, and Egypt. Nevertheless, ism and terrorism pose to them, Ibrahim Ouf Algeria faces the threat of violent their culture and their faith. extremism and its consequences “Cultural institutions cannot of fear and bloodshed. It remains be effective in the absence of Cairo concerned about the rise of support at the highest level in extremism and terrorism in the any state,” Mihoubi said. lgerian Minister region. He said he has endeavoured at of Culture Mihoubi was in Cairo in the Ministry of Culture to Azzedine October for the Arab Culture simplify tasks by outsourcing Mihoubi said Ministers’ Conference, a biennial cultural responsibilities. He said the digital gathering of top cultural decision he wants to turn culture from a revolution and makers in the Arab world. The preserve of the government into the emergence conference focused on issues a shared responsibility with the of social media such as the role of culture in the wider society in general and civil asA a main communication tool fight against extremism. society, in particular. have empowered radicals and “Extremists are winning many “We want to create the condi- extremists, especially in the Arab of the battles throughout the tions that make civil society region. region, killing the innocent, more capable of breathing new Terrorists, he said, are now tarnishing the image of Islam and life into the Algerian cultural more capable of communicating convincing sympathisers that scene,” Mihoubi said. “We also with people to argue against their actions are heroic,” want culture to turn from a mere what is acceptable or logical and Mihoubi said. “True, these practice done for its own sake to recruit people. terrorists can use the power of into a social and economic “This makes the mission of technology and communications development tool.” governments and cultural revolution but we have a much Mihoubi said he is aware that institutions more challenging,” more powerful weapon, namely he belongs to a country with rich Mihoubi said. “They have to culture.” cultural traditions. He said he fight an enemy super-empow- Mihoubi called for meeting of and his colleagues at the Minis- ered with an unfettered access to Arab leaders to discuss cultural try of Culture spread the word an endless supply of recruits.” actions that Arab governments about those traditions wherever Mihoubi has been at the top of they go. Algeria’s cultural establishment He said Algerians achieved since 2015. He started his “We want to create much in all fields of culture: professional career as a journal- cinema, theatre and the arts. ist before moving to lead the the conditions that “It is our responsibility to Towards meeting challenges. Algerian Minister of Culture Azzedine Mihoubi. (Twitter) information section at Algerian make civil society throw light on this cultural state television. He became chief more capable of progress,” Mihoubi said. “Cul- executive of Algerian Radio tural exchange is very important countries and the re-emergence changes Arabs are seeing in their before being appointed to lead breathing new life if we will learn from each other of violence as a conversation countries. the National Library of Algeria in into the Algerian and use culture as a tool for language between peoples and “As a nation, we face existen- 2010. Mihoubi also has ten progress.” groups show the dangers and tial challenges,” Mihoubi said. poetry collections to his name, cultural scene.” Deep under these actions, the challenges the Arabs are facing. “This means that we need to as well as four novels. Algerian minister said, is his These challenges, he said, more than just do business as He moved into to his role at a Algerian Minister belief that this is a sensitive time must be met with radical action usual to be up to these chal- time of great change and major for the Arab world, Arab culture and solutions. One of the lenges.” perils. of Culture and Arabic as a language. solutions, he added, was to make Algeria, which faced a bloody Azzedine Mihoubi He said developments in the religious discourse and school Ibrahim Ouf is an Egyptian civil war in the 1990s, has region, the wars in many Arab curricula go hand in hand with reporter based in Cairo. BOOK REVIEW The ‘heretic’ world of Moroccan writer Anouar Majid

Tangier Campus in Morocco, ‘Call to Heresy’ was published in and by the imposition of consen- By heresy, Majid does not mean Abdulaziz Jdeir founding director of the Tangier 2007, that image was shattered sus. During this period, thought the traditional sense of apostasy Global Forum and co-founder of and I was reclassified. Most read- and discourse flourished. Thinkers but, rather, one that encourages the magazine Tingis. ers and critics did not understand freely discussed prophecy, pro- people to deal with religions with He said he loves his city, adding the purpose of that book, except phetic signs and creation.” an open and critical approach. that the only thing he has lost in for a few. “Every book is the fruit of con- Majid surprised readers with his his life is Tangier. “I still feel lost In my first and second books, tinuous reading and meditation,” fourth book, “We are All Moors,” there (in the United States), 35 I believed that reforming Islamic Majid added. “I deal with my read- which was viewed as a defence years down the road. I feel that societies must be a gradual pro- ings with an open mind. I am not of Muslims, especially because I have lost my soul. Has anyone cess. I gave it more thought after the type to hold on to unchanging he had criticised some aspects of ever succeeded in regaining their that and starting from ‘Call to Her- convictions. Our readings change their lives, as well as America, in soul?” he asked during a recent esy,’ I advocated that there should us. Observing people and the his previous book. visit to Tangier. be total break with tradition and world changes some of our no- The book was published on the Majid took his first steps as a urged readers and the general tions. Daily life is the best teacher. 400th anniversary of the ethnic writer when he was a student public to consider the other face We should not read to confirm our cleansing and expulsion of the at the School of Visual Arts in of Islam, which is also part of Is- convictions.” Moriscos minority from Andalusia New York, writing a script titled lam, and not remain at the mercy “At that moment, reading in 1609 as Spain sought to build “The Long Trip” in 1983. The text of the puritanical thinkers who opened up new perspectives in my a nation and unify its population revolves around the migration of think that they possess the only research. In my next book, ‘Islam using Christianity and the Castil- a Moroccan citizen to Britain and truth possible. and America: Building a Future ian language. This process neces- the problems he faced. “In the book, I went back to Without Prejudice,’ I asked this sitated the swift suppression of “I went to the City University periods in Islamic history where question: ‘Why do America and Is- the “other” — Muslim and Jewish of New York to pursue a degree freedom of thought prevailed, lam need heretic thinking?’ It was minorities — by considering them in literature. I wrote a short albeit for a relatively short period, because they both were repressive enemies. story titled ‘Mr Richard’ about an and I looked at the negative systems. The US is suffering from It took Majid four years to finish nouar Majid is a American citizen who came to live effects brought about by free social and economic pressures “We are All Moors,” which com- writer almost in Tangier. The novel presents life thought, as well as by its absence caused by the capitalist paradigm, bines history and contemporary unknown in the in the city through Mr Richard’s a repressive system par excellence issues such as migration, minori- Arab world due to vision and thoughts,” Majid said. that only seeks profit and sup- ties and genocide. his long stay in the Majid said he wrote spontane- presses the progressive concepts The book points out that we are United States, ously, with no preconceptions. “I brought about by the American all, in one way or another, mi- where he has been was always preoccupied with my Revolution in the 18th century. norities in the end. In the preface, residingA since the 1980s. Born in city, Tangier,” he said. “As I lived “Muslims, too, suffer from Majid wrote that “the book might Tangier in 1960, he left for within New York’s skyscrapers and religious oppression, an oppres- surprise people but my ultimate America to study cinema. He is broad streets, Tangier occupied sion disguised by religion, which goal is criticism and confronting the author of “Si Yussef,” pub- my mind, dispelling my concerns.” society is still unable to shake off. every repressive thought system lished in two editions in 1992 and Majid said that, following his The capitalist oppression has done wherever it may be, whatever its 2005, three other novels and five first two books — “Unveiling away with democratic principles colour or identity. Liberty is my unpublished story collections. Traditions: Postcolonial Islam in and buried them. The Islamic grail because it has always been Majid has also written books on a Polycentric World” (2000) and oppression is born out of political the Holy Grail of Man since the civilisation and philosophy in “Freedom and Orthodoxy: Islam Islam and traditional Islamism as beginning of his journey on this English. and Difference in the Post-Anda- they both impose a lifestyle that Earth. Perhaps there is on this Majid, 58, is professor of lusian Age” (2004) — critics and intellectually impoverishes indi- Earth something that is worth civilisations and literature and other writers “classified me as a viduals and societies.” living for, thinking about and vice-president for global affairs at postcolonial writer and a defender struggling for.” the University of New England in of Islamic identity in its progres- Unexpected ground. Cover of Maine. He is managing director of sive and universal dimension. Anouar Majid’s “Call to Heresy.” Abdulaziz Jdeir is a Moroccan the University of New England’s “However, as soon as my book journalist. November 4, 2018 23 Culture

BOOK REVIEW ‘Beirut rules’ in the region’s shadow wars

Katz rejected parallels between Buckley, a “soldier and a spy,” and Mughniyeh, admired by many in Gareth Smyth southern Lebanon. “I don’t see Buckley ever chaining someone to a radiator and beating him until he he new book “Beirut was within an inch of his life and Rules” centres on then letting him die. I don’t think William Buckley, the there is anything that anyone can CIA Beirut chief who write that would save Mughniyeh’s died in captivity after soul in hell in terms of the cruelty his kidnapping in and the savagery he displayed,” 1984, but it is equally Katz said. Tabout Imad Mughniyeh, the He also rejected international Hezbollah operative who many law, which lacks any concept of believe organised the seizure of revenge, as an alternative to Beirut Buckley and other Americans. rules. “Is there international law “Beirut Rules,” published by that applies to espionage agents Penguin Random House, was whose mission is to steal, manipu- written by Fred Burton, former US late and blackmail? I don’t think State Department counterterrorism that law comes into play a lot when agent, and Samuel Katz, counter- it comes to how the Middle East is terrorism consultant and author of handled and how Middle Eastern Valuable artefacts. Ceramics on display at the Brooklyn Museum. (Jonathan Dorado) “The Ghost Warriors: Inside Israel’s wars are fought,” Katz said. Undercover War Against Suicide But is it credible that Hezbol- Terrorism.” lah and Iran alone brought Beirut Burton and Katz say they have no rules? Brooklyn Museum dedicates doubt that the CIA and Mossad co- operated in killing Mughniyeh with a car bomb in Damascus in 2008. The book offers They argue Mughniyeh, alongside exhibit to Syrian refugees Iran, organised abductions and the insight into a certain 1983 bombings of the US Embassy American and Israeli in Beirut and its Marine barracks. mindset in which Noah Habeeb after seeing a February 2013 article States as a student in 2003, Hafez “Friends of Buckley wanted in the Economist titled “The coun- was unable to visit Syria due to the revenge,” write Burton and Katz. In Lebanon — even try formerly known as Syria.” National Security Entry-Exit Reg- killing Mughniyeh, “the CIA finally the region — is a New York Since then, Kourbaj has mount- istration System (NSEERS), which had its eye for an eye. Biblical jus- ed installations throughout the was implemented after the Sep- tice had been served.” “Byzantine” war yria, Then and Now: world called “Another Day Lost” tember 11, 2001 attacks, requiring Katz said “Beirut Rules” was of sects. Stories from Refugees a featuring books and burned men from many Middle Eastern not intended to augment public “ Century Apart,” an ex- matches arranged in small-scale countries to register with the US knowledge of Mughniyeh but to Depicting Buckley’s fate as a radi- S hibition at the Brooklyn refugee tents to represent the hu- government. portray Buckley. It traces his child- cal departure ignores many earlier Museum, features 13th-century man lives and time lost during the hood fascination with history, his killings attributed to Israel. These ceramics from the museum collec- Syrian civil war. “Hollywood good looks,” his role include the 1962 disappearance of tion juxtaposed with works of con- At the Brooklyn Museum, he In addition to the work of in US special forces and the CIA in Heinz Krug, a German rocket sci- temporary Syrian and Lebanese exhibited “Dark Water, Burning the contemporary artists, Vietnam and his “significant other.” entist working with Egypt; the 1973 artists. World,” which depicted Syrian the Brooklyn Museum The book, said Katz, also argued killing of Hussein al-Bashir, the Artists Ginane Makki Bacho, Is- refugees on ships on the Mediter- displayed 13th-century that “kidnapping Buckley, holding Palestine Liberation Organisation’s sam Kourbaj and Mohamad Hafez ranean. Keeping with the materi- ceramics unearthed in him and torturing him to death” KGB liaison officer; and the 1981 gathered October 18 at the muse- als used in “Another Day Lost,” marked an important break. Paris killing of Egyptian nuclear um to discuss their work concern- Kourbaj utilised burned matches Raqqa. “[Before this] even in high-threat scientist Yehia el-Mashad. ing the plight of Syrian refugees. clustered together to represent locations like Lebanon, there were The bombing of Israel’s head- Bacho, who is Lebanese, fled her huddled masses of Syrian refugees When Hafez returned to Syria gentlemen’s rules,” he said. “Eve- quarters in Tyre was 36 years homeland during the 1975-90 civil on dinghies constructed from dis- in 2011 — after the Obama admin- ryone knew who the station chiefs after 91 people died in the attack war. This experience, as well as her carded steel. istration suspended the NSEERS were — CIA, KGB, MI6, et cetera — on Jerusalem’s King David Hotel, attention to the Syrian conflict, Hafez, a Syrian architect and programme — he said he was so but they weren’t targets. They were British headquarters in Palestine. compelled her to produce art de- self-trained artist living in New delighted that he made field re- part of the chess match.” Before the 1983 US Embassy bomb- picting searing images of refugee Haven, Connecticut, also began to cordings to capture daily life The new “Beirut rules,” said ing, an al-Dawa suicide bomber in struggles. make art about Syria to process the throughout his trip. Katz, had been glimpsed in the December 1981 killed 61 in Iraq’s “I couldn’t do something else,” turmoil in his home country, from “I was so homesick I recorded November 1982 bombing of Israel’s Beirut embassy. Among those who she said at a talk at the museum. which some of his family members everything I saw,” Hafez said dur- headquarters in Tyre, Lebanon, died was the Iraqi ambassador. In “This spectacle, this image ob- were forced to flee as refugees. ing the Brooklyn Museum talk, which killed 67 soldiers, nine Shin 1980, Saddam Hussein had Ayatol- sessed me day and night.” “Until you see your own family “and I came back and I started in- Bet agents and 15 detainees. “[This] lah Mohammad Baqir Sadr, Dawa’s Bacho’s contribution to the ex- member in a refugee camp you re- fusing this into my work. I realised was a surprise… It was the same ideological founder, tortured and hibition — scrap metal sculptures ally haven’t experienced conflict I captured a moment of peace that when suicide bombers from Hamas killed. of Syrian refugees on and waiting fully,” said Hafez. no longer exists in the Syrian sky.” hit Israel in 1994. People never ex- “Beirut Rules” calls Hezbol- to board boats — documented with He exhibited two works inspired Portions of the audio recordings pected Beirut would come to them. lah’s 2006 missile barrage into greater solidity images in interna- by his training in architectural play above “Damascene Athan,” People [in 1982] never expected Israel, killing 50, “the first total war tional media. modelling. His “Baggage Series #4″ which depicts the facade of a that the insanity witnessed along against a Western population since used an antique suitcase acquired building in Damascus on the cusp the front of the Iran-Iraq war would the second world war” but merely The exhibit, curated by from ancestors of European immi- of civil war, a foreboding govern- come to them,” he said. notes that Israel’s onslaught on grants to the United States as the ment jeep parked in front fore- Katz denied that the 1982 Israeli “Hezbollah targets” killed 1,000- Aysin Yoltar-Yildirim, is base for a plaster model of a de- shadowing conflict. invasion fostered the new rules. 1,500 Lebanese civilians. part of a year-long Arab stroyed apartment building, In addition to the work of the “No, it was strapping explosives to Katz and Burton root a desire for Art & Education Initiative “My juxtaposition of contem- contemporary artists, the Brook- the bodies of 10-year-old boys on revenge in the killing of Ameri- in New York. porary art and historical artefact lyn Museum displayed 13th-cen- the Iraq front,” he said. “It was this cans or Israelis but not in the Iraqi physically joins the stories of Syr- tury ceramics unearthed in Raqqa, new way of carrying out conflicts invasion of Iran, the 1978 and 1982 “In my work, I use scrap metal to ian refugees to America’s long her- Syria, by Circassian refugees in by non-state players… rules estab- Israeli invasions of Lebanon, US emphasise the degradation of civi- itage as a nation of immigrants,” 1906 and soon after acquired by lished in espionage were suddenly support for the shah or in the lisation we currently live in,” Ba- Hafez said in his artist’s statement. the museum via Arab-American thrown out the window.” Nakba of 1947-48. The book fails cho said in her artist’s statement. After travelling to the United art dealer Azeez Khayat. The ce- Did the “Beirut rules” justify kill- to mention that Ahmed Qassir, the “The use of rough metal conveys ramics and their story of discov- ing Mughniyeh? “unexceptional” young man who the misery of the people with their ery spoke to Syria’s history as a bombed the Israelis in Tyre in 1982, clothes and luggage.” destination for refugees, while had lost several relatives during the Kourbaj, from Syria, said he felt highlighting the contributions that 1978 Israeli invasion. compelled to engage with the civil refugees can have in their new so- Perhaps this book offers insight war through his art, particularly cieties. into a certain American and Israeli The exhibit, curated by Aysin mindset in which Lebanon — even Yoltar-Yildirim, is part of a year- the region — is a “Byzantine” war long Arab Art & Education Initia- of sects where “thugs and psy- tive in New York. chopaths” are “a dime a dozen.” Founded in the 19th cen- It’s a bleak worldview and just as tury, the Brooklyn Museum is revenge may have no clear begin- one of the largest art museums ning, it has no clear end. in the United States and one of New York’s premier cultural in- Gareth Smyth is a regular stitutions. “Syria, Then and Now: contributor to The Arab Weekly. Stories from Refugees a Century He has reported from the Middle Apart” will be on view through East since 1992. January 13. Restless souls. A desire for revenge. Cover of “Refugees, 2018.” Steel. Noah Habeeb is a writer in the new book “Beirut Rules.” Ginane Makki Bacho New York who has researched (Tarek Haddad) Arab-American communities. 24 November 4, 2018 Travel www.thearabweekly.com

Agenda

Tunis: Through November 10

The Carthage Film Festival is an annual event that showcases films from the Maghreb, Africa and the Middle East. It takes place in Tunis and other parts of Tunisia. The programme for the 29th edition includes world cinema projections, seminars, debates and meetings in addi- tion to the official film competi- tion.

Dubai: Through December 31

“La Perle” features 65 artists from 23 countries performing amazing stunts and aerial antics above an on-stage pool filled with 2.7 million litres of water in A general view of the port in the coastal town of Zarzis. (Tunisian Tourism Ministry) a state-of-the-art, custom-built theatre. The show takes place at Al Habtoor City.

Beirut: Looking for an untypical beach November 8-10

The eighth Beirut Cooking Festival will take place at the Beirut International Exhibition resort? Try Tunisia’s Zarzis and Leisure Centre. Celebrity chefs will be on hand to meet people and share recipes, dishes, Roua Khlifi Hafiane, general-secretary of the cocktail courses and new trends Association for the Protection of the in cooking. Patrimony of Zarzis. Zarzis During the Phoenician rule, Ger- Dubai: gis — the old name of Zarzis — was November 15-17 he beautiful, endless coast- an important trade centre. The line surrounding the land town became even more influential Yogafest will take place at Dubai from almost all sides high- under the Roman Empire thanks to Media City Amphitheatre with T lights the uniqueness of its port and strategic positioning. a programme that includes free Zarzis, on a peninsula in south- The town served as a link point for yoga sessions, meditation circles eastern Tunisia. The large coastline trade in the south-eastern side of and yoga-related activities. is but one of the many attractions it the Mediterranean. boasts. Zarzis has several significant Cairo: Zarzis, 540km south of Tunis, is sites belonging to historical peri- November 20-29 famed for its mesmerising beaches, ods ranging from Punic to Roman, rich history and natural wealth. notably the archaeological site of The 40th Cairo International Not a typical touristic zone, Zar- Zita (Henchir Zayen) and the site of Film Festival will take place at zis is an alternative destination for Henchir Kelah. the Opera House over ten days. those who seek a simple, yet fasci- Archaeological digs at Zita uncov- The programme includes a spe- nating, journey to a peaceful town ered the structure of a forum and cial section titled “Arab Female that retains its traditions and cus- a temple dedicated to the Goddess Directors” in addition to world toms while being famed for olive Tanit. Also found were carved and cinema projections, seminars, production and sponge diving and inscribed stelae and marble statues workshops, debates and trib- harvesting. now on display in the Louvre Mu- utes. Close to another prominent tour- seum in Paris. istic attraction, the island of Djerba, “The archaeological site of Zita is Dubai: Zarzis is believed to have taken its one of the richest historical sites in November 29-30 name from the biblical tribes of Gir- the region. The diggings that took gashites, who left the Arabian Pen- place there uncovered the existence Bao Music and Dance Fest is insula and settled in North Africa. of ruins belonging to the pre-Roman an event celebrating Chinese Other historians claim the region period and buried buildings that are culture through music, dance, was called “Gergis” after the Byz- still being explored,” Hafiane said. fashion and food. More than a antine King Gregorius. Before the “It is a rich historical site that wit- dozen electronic dance music Roman period, the town was known nessed the passing of Carthaginian, DJs will be present during the as Zita. Punic and Roman civilisations. Zita two-night event. The Sebkha of Zarzis features is a rich site that used to host a vil- many ancient artefacts, includ- lage that was often visited by Ro- Tozeur: ing geometric microliths as well as man kings and was also known for December 5-8 armatures of arrows from 3000- exporting [olive] oil to the Roman 2000BC. Empire. There is also Henchir el- A view of the prayer room of the synagogue of Zarzis. (Wikipedia) The first Tozeur International “Zarzis has great potential being Kalakh, which consists in a decaying Film Festival will take place in one of the oldest cities in the south- spherical chamber that is believed the Tunisian Sahara. The pro- ern sphere of the Mediterranean. Its to having been a burial site for the combining ancient history, heritage in the sea to observe sponge har- gramme will include official film rich history covers many periods rich inhabitants of the Roman town and contemporary patrimony. Visi- vesting and diving for sponges to competitions for long movies, and civilisations. Years ago, evi- and old Roman water basin.” tors are exposed to the industrious conferences and discussions of the short movies and documen- dence of the prehistoric existence The Zarzis Museum, one of the rituals of agriculture and the mari- maritime life and activities of the taries. Movies from Morocco, was uncovered proving the town most recent established in Tunisia, time resources Zarzis is known for. town. France, the United States, Tuni- is steeped in antiquity,” said Sadek is a jewel of history and culture, One also cannot visit Zarzis with- “It is one of the oldest festivals sia, Algeria, Lebanon, Norway, out taking a dip in its sea, going for in Tunisia and it is one of the hall- Italy, Egypt and Spain have been long strolls on its beaches and vis- marks of the cultural life in Zarzis,” selected for the competitions. iting its Punic port, which remains Fares Said, vice-director of the fes- one of the main attractions of the tival, explained. “It is famous for Dubai: town. Dating to the Punic period, ‘kharja,’ which is a celebratory out- December 12 the remains of the port are visible ing during which festival attendees in clear weather. The Punic port is go to the port and take part in the Pianist Alexandra Dariescu takes a must-see because it provides in- harvesting of sponges and learn her multimedia performance of sight into the history of the town about its methods. Fishermen and “The Nutcracker and I” to the and its economic importance as it is attendees of the festival take part in Dubai Opera stage. The Nut- one of the oldest cities in the south- this event.” cracker is brought to life with ern Mediterranean. “Tourists visit and many people projected hand-drawn digital In addition to its historical role, come to attend the shows. (Zarzis) animation that follows the music Zarzis is known for its agricultural also has conferences on sponge and engages with the pianist and sector, producing some of the finest harvesting and maritime life, which a ballerina behind a see-through olive oil in the region, which it has characterises and occupies a big gauze screen. been exporting in great quantities part of the lives of the locals,” he since ancient times. said. Zarzis is famed for the sponges it One cannot but fall for the charm We welcome submissions of produces and one of the most popu- of the town of Zarzis, which, on top calendar items related to lar maritime activities is sponge div- of ancient history, offers visitors cultural events of interest to ing and harvesting. Zarzis is known the serenity and peace that cannot travellers in the Middle East for its good quality sponges. found elsewhere. and North Africa. Every summer, the town cel- ebrates its maritime wealth with Roua Khlifi is a regular Travel Please send tips to: the National Festival of the Sponge and Culture contributor to [email protected] A view of a beach in the coastal town of Zarzis. (Tunisian Tourism Ministry) of Zarzis, which includes outings The Arab Weekly.