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'Principlists' Concentrate Attacks on Rohani March 12, 2017 15 News & Analysis Iran ‘Principlists’ concentrate attacks on Rohani Gareth Smyth been critical of the 2015 nuclear agreement, the Joint Comprehen- sive Plan of Action (JCPOA), with London world powers. Hamidreza Baqaee, vice-presi- hortly after Hossein-Ali dent for executive affairs under Ro- Amiri, Iranian vice-presi- hani’s predecessor, Mahmoud Ah- dent for parliamentary af- madinejad, has already announced fairs, confirmed to the of- he would stand, although he could ficial IRNA news agency well be blocked by the watchdog Sthat President Hassan Rohani would Council of Guardians, which in 2013 seek a second term in the election, barred Ahmadinejad’s chief of staff, due May 19th, the president visited Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei. Sistan-Baluchestan, a south-eastern Other principlists have estab- province that polled heavily in his lished the Popular Front of Islamic favour in 2013. Revolution Forces (PFIRF) to agree Front-page pictures of Rohani ris- on a single candidate but are strug- ing for the national anthem along- gling to find a charismatic figure. side Abdul-Hamid Esmail-Zehi, Among the names bandied about perhaps Iran’s pre-eminent Sunni is Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the cleric, conveyed a timely image to Tehran mayor who unsuccessfully Iranian voters of a president seeking ran for president in 2005 and 2013. reconciliation but standing firm in “Ghalibaf is the only potential big- an unstable world. name challenger,” said Farhi, “but Rohani’s election platform will he’s mired in a corruption scandal be continued international engage- of his own. The Popular Front of Helped by ment and cautious economic re- Islamic Revolution Forces is strug- divisions. Iranian form. gling to come up with a platform to President Hassan The omens are generally good. run on beyond the need for princi- Rohani delivers Every Iranian president since Ali plist unity.” a speech at Azadi Khamenei in the 1980s has won a Saeed Jalili, the former top secu- Square in Tehran, second term. “I consider Rohani the rity official who from 2007 to 2013 last February. favourite,” said Farideh Farhi of the took a belligerent stance in nuclear (AFP) University of Hawaii. “Continuity negotiations with the Europeans, is and stability are in everyone’s mind another possibility, although in the and there’s a dearth of formidable 2013 presidential election he polled pay levels among technocrats and election of Donald Trump as US tled workers, women and ethnic mi- challengers.” only 11%. officials. A populist appeal based president to bolster the principlists norities. “Jalili seems to be testing an anti- on economic equality helped Ah- — although eyebrows were raised at Washington has a poor record Rohani’s election JCPOA narrative that’s not getting madinejad win in 2005 and would the gushing 3,500-word letter from in such work. President George W. platform will include traction,” said Farhi. “(Overall) the chime with the egalitarian values of Ahmadinejad to Trump suggesting Bush’s attempts to communicate continued international critics (of the nuclear agreement) the 1979 Islamic revolution. he had as US president “the historic directly with Iranians in his 2006 engagement. have not been able to come up with It might also tap the popular opportunity with new reforms to be State of the Union address fell flat, an alternative narrative to attract mood. Despite the glowing Inter- a pioneer of new and great develop- while CIA support for militant eth- voters.” national Monetary Fund report re- ments and thus make history”. nic separatists among, for example, Iran’s reformists may well back An outside possibility for a prin- leased at the end of February noting Trump has not replied and talk the Baluchis and Kurds is likely to Rohani, as they did in 2013. Howev- ciplist challenger is Ebrahim Raeisi, an “impressive recovery” and 6.6% in Washington is rather different. foster Persian nationalism. er, a report in the reformist Shargh appointed in 2016 by Khamenei to growth in the year ending on March A recent submission to the House Clumsy attempts to undermine newspaper that Vice-President Es- chair the powerful foundation su- 21st, most Iranians are unconvinced of Representatives Foreign Affairs the Islamic Republic might encour- hagh Jahangiri is liaising between pervising the shrine in the north- they have benefited from sanctions Committee by Scott Modell, man- age turnout in the presidential elec- the reformists and Supreme Leader eastern city of Mashhad of Imam relief. aging director of Rapidan Group tion and, by putting Iran “on notice”, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei reflects Reza, a descendant of the Prophet Polling by Iranpoll and the Uni- consultants and a former CIA op- the Trump administration may well both the possibility of a reformist Mohammad and the eighth Shia versity of Maryland found 51% of re- erative, proposed that the Trump strengthen the appeal — both to vot- candidate and the importance of imam. Raeisi, though, is less well- spondents saying in December that administration “target the decayed ers and to Khamenei — of Rohani as Khamenei’s role in the build-up to known than Jalili and is more likely economic conditions were worsen- base of popular support for the re- a reliable but firm hand on the tiller. the poll. to concentrate on his existing role. ing and 75% said they agreed that gime”, partly through US-govern- Rohani should be helped by divi- So far, most principlists are con- the nuclear agreement had not im- ment funded Farsi-language media Gareth Smyth was chief sions among principlists — known centrating attacks on Rohani not proved matters. “spearhead(ing) an information correspondent in Iran for the in Farsi as osulgarayan — who have on international affairs but on high Some in Tehran expected the warfare campaign” among disgrun- Financial Times from 2003-07. Incumbent faces hurdles in Iran elections, Trump no help Mahan Abedin back of campaigning efforts by lo- politics, for while the latter is noto- for his weak organisational base by partial lifting of the economic siege cal groups loosely aligned to the riously fractious and ill-disciplined, piggybacking on the reformists’ na- on Iran. Sanctions relief, however, country’s embattled reform move- the country’s security establish- tionwide political networks. has been too slow to reap Rohani London ment. Despite suffering a shattering ment is remarkably cohesive in ide- At a leadership level, the reform- the desired political dividends. defeat at street and political levels ological and organisational terms. ists continue to be in disarray with Qualified sanctions relief speaks ith Iranian presiden- in 2009-10 (following the disputed Furthermore, Rohani’s tempera- the leaders of the so-called Green to the Rohani administration’s tial elections loom- presidential elections), the reform- ment is not best suited for the kind movement, notably former prime overall economic performance, ing, the incumbent, ists maintained local networks and of consistent coalition building re- minister Mir-Hossein Mousavi and which has been less than spectacu- Hassan Rohani, can mobilise quickly to support al- quired for long-term survival at the former parliamentary speaker Me- lar. Lack of a strong economic re- kicked off his cam- lied candidates. apex of Iranian politics. By most hdi Karroubi, still subject to severe cord, coupled with his overall lack Wpaign in earnest by issuing a mild Rohani’s Achilles heel is his lack credible accounts, the Iranian pres- restrictions. Rohani disappointed of popularity, considerably reduces warning to “armed forces” and of an independent political base. ident is authoritarian by instinct reformists by not taking any deter- Rohani’s electoral prospects. other state institutions, including This is partly a reflection of his ca- and is ill-disposed towards criti- mined action to secure their release the judiciary, from interfering in the reer, which has had less to do with cism. This makes it hard for him from house arrest. In previous elections, electoral process. politics than security services and to reach out to opponents, a pre- Moreover, the spiritual leader of the Basij was accused By “armed forces” Rohani means in part a symptom of his uncharis- requisite for sustainable success in the country’s reform movement of using its position to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards matic and authoritarian personality. the Islamic Republic’s labyrinthine — former president Mohammad lobby for specific Corps (IRGC) and specifically its A securocrat by instinct and train- political community. Khatami — is also subject to restric- paramilitary wing, the Basij. The ing, prior to becoming president Ro- At a strategic level, the Iranian tions, notably a media blackout and candidates. latter has an extensive nationwide hani had spent more than 30 years political landscape no longer offers inability to engage in foreign travel. network centred on mosques and working at the highest levels of the favourable terms to Rohani as it did Most damaging to Rohani, how- Significant vulnerabilities not- other community focal points, par- Islamic Republic’s security estab- in 2013. Rohani achieved success by ever, was the death of former presi- withstanding, two crucial factors ticularly in working-class and rural lishment. This is not necessarily the bringing centrists and reformists dent Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani work in the incumbent’s favour. areas. best training for a career in Iranian together, thereby compensating in January. A pragmatic centrist, First, sitting Iranian presidents In previous elections, particularly Rafsanjani was key to bridging the have never failed to secure a sec- in the disputed June 2009 presiden- divide between Rohani and the re- ond term at the polls, no matter tial race, the Basij was accused of formists by underwriting multiple how poor their performance. Sec- using its position to lobby for spe- political deals. Rafsanjani’s demise ond, a strong rival to Rohani has yet cific candidates, notably principlist has been correctly interpreted as a to emerge.
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