2H19 Outlook
Internet What to expect in the coming decade
Chang-kwean Kim +822-3774-1614 [email protected]
Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including the U.S. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT. Contents
[Summary] 3
I. 2019 outlook 4
II. Medium/long-term outlook 5
III. Key factors/issues 6
IV. Global peer group valuations 16
V. Top picks 18 NCsoft, Kakao, NAVER
[Conclusion] 21 [Summary] Top picks: NCsoft, Kakao, NAVER
Overweight on the internet/game sector
NCsoft (036570 KS) Kakao (035720 KS) NAVER (035420 KS) TP: W700,000 TP: W170,000 TP: W176,000
• 2Q19: Renewed Lineage M • KakaoTalk Earnings • Negatives priced in momentum chat tab ads momentum to continue • E-commerce • 2H19: Lineage 2M to be • through Surge in • NAVER vs. Coupang 2020 released webtoon revenue • 2020: Aion 2 and Blade & Soul 2 • LINE Pay Banking to be released • KakaoBank Big Securities • Takeoff of the cloud gaming KakaoPay picture Insurance market Kakao Mobility
Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research
3| 2H19 Outlook [Internet] Mirae Asset Daewoo Research I. 2019 outlook
Strong earnings • NCsoft: Lineage (PC) and Lineage M revenue growth should resume in 2Q19; Lineage M revenue from Japan momentum expected in could emerge. • Kakao: New ads on KakaoTalk chat tabs (launched in May) should generate stronger earnings momentum 2Q for NCsoft and Kakao heading into the end of the year. • NAVER: Investments in new LINE (3938 JP/CP: JPY3,740) businesses should significantly increase in 2H19, weighing on consolidated operating profit. For the domestic business, e-commerce-driven growth should drive continued earnings improvements in 2019.
Quarterly earnings trends for NCsoft, NAVER, and Kakao (2018-19)
(Wbn) NCsoft (L) NAVER (L) Kakao (R) NAVER (Wbn) Quarterly earnings trend 350 LINE's investments to be concentrated in 2H 100 forecasts NAVER net profit to grow 25% in Korea Kakao NCsoft: 2Q < 3Q < 4Q Revenue from KakaoTalk chat tab ads 300 Kakao: 2Q < 3Q < 4Q NCsoft recognized starting in 2Q 80 NAVER: 1Q > 2Q > 3Q > 4Q Earnings surprise in 2Q thanks to New business revenue growth > Cost growth Lineage M 250 Lineage II to be launched in 2H
60 200
150 40
100
20 50
0 0 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19F 2Q19F 3Q19F 4Q19F
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates
4| 2H19 Outlook [Internet] Mirae Asset Daewoo Research II. Medium/long-term outlook
All industries will • 2000-10: IPO of Amazon (AMZN US/CP: US$1,917); dot-com bubble; takeoff of the internet industry become internet • 2010-20: IPOs of Facebook (FB US/CP: US$189) and Alibaba (BABA US/CP: US$179); proliferation of mobile Improved convenience driven by the internet industries • 2020-30: IPOs of Uber and Airbnb Complete intertwining of the internet and everyday life
Lifestyle changes led by advances in internet technology
Mobile internet era 2030- -PC Smartphones -Web Apps (expansion) - Proliferation of social network services Uber’s Online ads: 70-80% IPO E-commerce: 30-40% Fax Mailbox Phased out Facebook’s Video IPO 2020 IoT era CD Online ads: 40-50% - Integration of the internet into all industries 2010 E-commerce: 10-20% -Smartphones All devices - 5G proliferation Dot-com - Individual devices Cloud (expansion) Alibaba’s bubble Online ads: 10-20% IPO E-commerce: 5-10%
Fixed-line internet (PC) era 2000 - Proliferation of internet -Disks Web Amazon’s IPO Smartphones, social networks, Land lines, mail Wearables, VR calling video calling
Start of paid services - Movies, digital music, comics Free content Proliferation of paid services (downloads) - Netflix and Spotify (streaming)
Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research
5| 2H19 Outlook [Internet] Mirae Asset Daewoo Research III. Key factors/issues: Takeoff of cloud gaming market
Cloud gaming = Mobile games > AR/VR games
Global gaming market outlook Global cloud gaming market outlook
(US$bn) (US$mn) VR 2019 Mobile 500 PC 2011 Cloud gaming has 450 Handheld Console Mobile gaming becomes strong potential 450 Arcade 2006 largest segment 140 400 Steam, CAGR: 120 350 307 downloads +46% 100 300 1994 250 209 1977 80 Play Station Atari 2600 200 60 143 150 97 40 100 66 20 50 0 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2018 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F Source: Financial Times, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Source: WGR, ABC, Statista, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research
M&A activities across global gaming industry Cloud gaming industry outlook
(US$bn) Sep 2014 Jul 2016 Microsoft/Mojang Tencent/Supercell Feb. 2011 (2.5) 84.3% (8.6) Mobile games > AR/VR games Tencent/Riot Games, 70% Jan 2014 Nov 2015 (0.2) Jul. 2011 Zynga/Natural Activision - Mostly leveraging existing content (with proven track records) EA/PopCap Games Motion Games Blizzard/ - Convenient for both gamers and developers (1.3) (0.5) King Digital Mar 2012 (5.8) - Costs are borne by companies Zynga/OMGPOP (0.2) - Compatible with existing platforms, hardware and content ⇒ Cloud is now mainstream
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2017
Source: App Annie, Financial Times, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research
6| 2H19 Outlook [Internet] Mirae Asset Daewoo Research III. Key factors/issues: Takeoff of cloud gaming market
Global status of cloud gaming: 2019 marks the true beginning of the cloud gaming industry
Company Product Release date Supporting devices No. of games Details
• About 300,000 games (free and paid) are currently available in the App 300,000 games available Store iPhone, iPad, Mac, in the App Store; 100 Apple Apple Arcade Fall 2019 • 100 games to be added after launch Apple TV games to be added after • No ads or additional purchases; can be played offline; device shift launch feature available
• Initial services to be offered via Google Chrome; can be accessed on all types of devices • Stadia is a platform for game players, developers, and YouTube Google Stadia 2019 All devices TBD streamers • Wi-Fi-enabled Stadia controller has been unveiled (directly connects to Google’s data center); capture button uploads gameplay directly to YouTube
• Game streaming service that allows users to play Xbox games via PCs, consoles, or mobile devices Project PCs, consoles, phones, Microsoft 2019 More than 3,000 games • Building hardware for cloud services; testing various games within the xCloud tablets company; preparing kits for developers and users • Aiming to conduct Azure-based tests in October
• Plans to allow global game players to enjoy tens of thousands of games Amazon TBD 2020 All devices TBD via Amazon Web Services • Already offering Twitch Prime to Amazon Prime subscribers
• Released the Nvidia Shield version of GeForce Now in 2015 and the PC Shield TV, Shield version in 2017; currently in beta testing Portable, MAC • Likely to implement time-based scheme, rather than monthly 2015, 2017 Nvidia GeForce Now OS/Windows More than 500 games subscriptions, (US$25/20 hours for GTX 1060, 10 hours for 1080) (beta) OS/Android • 5G mobile service is currently undergoing internal testing; plans to offer devices an Android-based GeForce cloud gaming service through partnerships with LG Uplus and SoftBank
PlayStation PS4, PS3, PS Vita, PS • Cloud gaming service PlayStation Now available since 2015 Sony 2014 More than 700 games Now console, PC • More than 700 game titles are available in 12 countries
Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research
7| 2H19 Outlook [Internet] Mirae Asset Daewoo Research III. Key factors/issues: Battle between NAVER and Coupang
NAVER’s C2C vs. Coupang’s • The Korean e-commerce market grew 21.2% YoY in 2018 and is likely to expand 19.8% YoY in 2019. B2C • Korea recorded the highest e-commerce penetration rate (24.1%) among major markets in 2018. • In 2018, the C2C and B2C e-commerce markets were dominated by NAVER and Coupang, respectively. • In 2018, Smartstore, NAVER’s online marketplace, delivered GMV growth of 58% YoY, while Coupang’s GMV expanded 70% YoY.
GMV by Korean online shopping mall (2017-18)
(Wtr) 20 2017 2018 C2C
Smartstore GMV +50%, YoY 15
B2C
10 +70% YoY
5
0 NAVER eBay Korea 11th Street Coupang WeMakePrice TMON
Notes: Striped areas represent Smartstore GMV; Smartstore is NAVER’s online marketplace for small/medium-sized shopping malls, offline retailers (e.g., SMEs, department stores, discount stores), and overseas direct purchase businesses. Source: Press reports, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research
8| 2H19 Outlook [Internet] Mirae Asset Daewoo Research III. Key factors/issues: Battle between NAVER and Coupang
24,000 vs. 300 • Coupang currently has about 24,000 employees (3,000 at the head office; 21,000 logistics employees). • In 2018, Coupang handled 5.21mn Rocket Delivery products, equivalent to 90% of its total GMV. • NAVER pursues C2C and offers optimal shopping experiences to consumers based on a massive product database with hundreds of millions of items. • NAVER is currently considering: 1) overhauling its mobile homepage to become more e-commerce-oriented; and 2) providing logistics warehouses.
E-commerce overview by stage
NAVER Coupang
- Direct product viewing/browsing - Recommendation by salesperson or acquaintance Store visit Displays/ Purchase Transport showroom
Customer Tangible goods like Cash/credit card or store books, appliances, etc.
1 2 3
4 5
Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research
9| 2H19 Outlook [Internet] Mirae Asset Daewoo Research III. Key factors/issues: Battle between NAVER and Coupang
Rapid growth of NAVER • In 2019, we expect both NAVER and Coupang to continue to deliver robust growth in GMV. and Coupang to be • NAVER’s total GMV (including Smartstore and purchases made via the search function), which expanded 28% YoY in 2018, will likely grow 25% YoY in 2019. reconfirmed in 2019 • In March 2019, Coupang’s credit card transaction volume doubled MoM to W1.2tr. • In 2019, other B2C and C2C malls have been seeing sluggish GMV.
NAVER’s GMV trend Coupang’s credit card transaction volume trend
(Wtr) (Wtr) GMV: +25% YoY 20 Smartstore: +50% YoY 1.4
GMV: +28% YoY Smartstore: +58% YoY (40% of GMV) 15 2x in 1 year 1
10
0.6 5
0 0.2 2016 2017 2018 2019F 1/18 3/18 5/18 7/18 9/18 11/18 1/19 2/19 3/19
Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates Source: Press reports, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research
10| 2H19 Outlook [Internet] Mirae Asset Daewoo Research III. Key factors/issues: Kakao shaking up the ad market
Kakao launched Bizboard • Kakao has launched KakaoTalk Bizboard, which displays banner ads on the top, middle, and bottom of the friend in May list tab. • CPM and CPC pricing (W2bn, W500mn, and W200mn products) • W2bn product: Advertising period of up to 30 days; guarantee of 400mn impressions; CPM of W5,000, which is around twice NAVER’s mobile ad rate (CPM of W2,100-2,800)
KakaoTalk Bizboard advertising KakaoTalk Bizboard ad products
KakaoTalk W2bn W500mn W200mn Bizboard
Hey, Kakao Common banner Chat list banner (1029 x 174)
Targeting By age and gender 2018 Melon Music Awards CPM W5,000
Advertising period Max. 30 days Max. 20 days Max. 10 days
Ad View, chatbot, KakaoTalk Store, Landing page form Brand tab Gift Shop, KakaoMakers
Impression 400mn 100mn 40mn guarantee Hey, Kakao Moment + brand tab Report Moment report report
Additional service W400mn W50mn -
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research
11| 2H19 Outlook [Internet] Mirae Asset Daewoo Research III. Key factors/issues: Kakao shaking up the ad market
Kakao’s ad revenue is • In 2018, Korea’s online ad penetration stood at 41% (about 10%p lower than levels in major countries). growing steeply • Kakao’s ad revenue from the Kakao platform increased W84bn YoY last year thanks to the launch of tab ads. • Facebook Messenger has displayed ads since 2017, and LINE also began to run ads in April this year.
Kakao’s ad revenue breakdown (2017-18) (Wbn)
1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 2017 2018
Ad revenue 133 151 151 160 155 166 167 182 596 670
Kakao platform 31 36 45 48 49 55 69 71 160 244
Daum mobile 41 47 44 48 46 48 42 49 180 185
Daum PC 61 68 62 64 59 63 57 62 255 241
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 2018 +W84bn (+52%, YoY)
KakaoTalk’s ad business development 2018 2019
Plus Friends Message Extension to ads business solutions Info Talk Kakao platform
First tab (friends) Kakao Talk Third tab (#) Second tab (chats) tab (#) ads Ad expansion Full-scale expansion
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research
12| 2H19 Outlook [Internet] Mirae Asset Daewoo Research III. Key factors/issues: Kakao shaking up the ad market
Kakao’s quarterly and annual ad revenue (Wbn)
1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19F 2Q19F 3Q19F 4Q19F 2018 2019F 2020F 2021F Revenue 155 166 167 182 180 200 201 225 670 807 991 1,336 Kakao platform 49 55 69 71 71 90 94 114 244 368 549 886 Daum mobile 46 48 42 49 49 49 48 50 185 195 203 212 Daum PC 59 63 57 62 61 62 60 61 241 244 238 237 Percentage Kakao platform 32.0 33.0 41.0 39.0 39.4 44.7 46.5 50.6 36.4 45.6 55.4 66.3 Daum mobile 30.0 29.0 25.0 27.0 27.0 24.5 23.6 22.1 27.7 24.2 20.5 15.9 Daum PC 38.0 38.0 34.0 34.0 33.6 30.8 29.9 27.3 35.9 30.2 24.1 17.8 YoY growth Revenue 16.0 9.9 10.3 13.9 16.5 20.5 20.5 23.8 12.4 20.5 22.8 34.8 Kakao platform 61.4 51.1 50.7 48.0 43.5 63.1 36.7 60.6 52.1 51.0 49.2 61.3 Daum mobile 12.3 2.8 -4.9 2.5 4.9 1.9 13.7 1.1 3.0 5.1 4.1 4.6 Daum PC -4.2 -7.2 -8.5 -3.2 3.0 -2.4 5.9 -0.5 -5.8 1.4 -2.2 -0.4 Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates
KakaoTalk’s quarterly and annual mobile display ad revenue (Wbn)
1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19F 2Q19F 3Q19F 4Q19F 2018 2019F 2020F 2021F NAVER Total time spent (bn minutes) 477 478 470 456 460 452 447 442 1,881 1,801 1,716 1,635 Mobile display ad revenue (Wbn) 56 62 57 65 56 64 64 71 241 254 267 283 Ad revenue/time spent (W) = A 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 KakaoTalk Total stay time (bn minutes) 693 686 675 686 671 673 671 669 2,740 2,685 2,656 2,623 Mobile display ad revenue (Wbn) 19 19 21 60 150 297 Ads revenue/time spent (W) = B 0.28 0.29 0.32 0.30 0.57 1.13 B/A 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 40.0 80.0 Notes: E-commerce is excluded from NAVER’s mobile ad revenue; NAVER applies both CPM and CPT pricing schemes for ads; revenue contributions from front page and mobile news page ads are high; targeting is based on location, gender, age, etc.; very conservative assumptions were applied to KakaoTalk due to low visibility on exposure strategy; as of 1Q19, KakaoTalk boasts 1.3 times more unique users and 1.5 times longer total time spent vs. the NAVER mobile app. Source: Nielsen KoreanClick, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates
13| 2H19 Outlook [Internet] Mirae Asset Daewoo Research III. Key factors/issues: Global popularity of webtoons
Popularity driven by “snack culture”
Web novel/webtoon market trend Neobazar’s monthly revenue trend
(Wtr) (Wmn) 3 +45% YoY 60 52 2.46 +60% YoY KakaoPage's Neobazar Acquisition 38 2 40 1.7 (12/18/18)
1.06 1 20 7 0 1 0 0 2018 2019F 2020F 11/18 12/18 1/19 2/19 3/19 Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates Source: SensorTower, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates
LINE Manga’s quarterly revenue trend Piccoma’s quarterly revenue trend
(Wbn) (Wbn) 61 25 22 60 54 +118% YoY 49 20 +177% YoY 50 17 15 40 36 15 11 30 27 10 8
20 5
10 0 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 Source: LINE, SensorTower, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates Source: Kakao, SensorTower, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates
14| 2H19 Outlook [Internet] Mirae Asset Daewoo Research III. Key factors/issues: Global popularity of webtoons
KakaoPage is expected • With the selection of an underwriter, expectations for KakaoPage’s IPO are growing (estimated value of W1.5-2tr). to go public in 2020 • KakaoPage’s revenue and operating profit are expected to grow 37.3% and 43.6%, respectively, in 2019. • Piccoma’s 1Q19 revenue is believed to have jumped 163% YoY. • Revenue at Neobazar, an Indonesian game publishing and webtoon service company acquired by Kakao in December 2018, is displaying a steep climb in 2019.
KakaoPage’s annual earnings (Wbn)
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019F 2020F Revenue 30 64 132 188 258 348 Operating profit -1 1 3 13 31 45 Net profit -3 -3 5 -4 22 46 Transaction value 50 100 150 220 326 484 Transaction value growth 250% 113% 106% 42% 37% 35% Revenue/transaction value 60% 64% 88% 85% 79% 72% OP margin -2% 1% 3% 7% 12% 13%
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates
Kakao’s other content revenue (Wbn)
2017 2018 2019F 2020F
Other content revenue 165 260 388 525
KakaoPage 108 167 258 348
Piccoma 19 52 88 132
Emojis, etc. 37 41 43 45
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates
15| 2H19 Outlook [Internet] Mirae Asset Daewoo Research IV. Global peer group valuations
Global internet players (Wbn, %, x)
Market Revenue OP NP ROE P/E P/B EV/EBITDA cap 19F 20F 19F 20F 19F 20F 19F 20F 19F 20F 19F 20F 19F 20F
NAVER (Korea) 20,354 6,490 7,395 872 1,102 575 742 10.5 12.2 34.4 26.7 3.3 3.0 15.3 12.7
Kakao 10,675 2,864 3,294 153 256 129 204 2.6 4.0 78.0 50.8 2.1 2.0 32.1 23.2
Cafe24 941 211 250 29 42 25 36 22.5 25.2 38.0 26.2 8.6 6.4 23.0 16.7
NHN Entertainment 1,516 1,611 1,807 117 169 93 131 5.8 7.3 17.8 13.3 0.9 0.8 7.6 6.0
Interpark 202 556 585 17 20 10 12 6.5 7.3 19.4 16.5 1.2 1.1 3.6 3.2
Alphabet (US) 943,735 151,339 176,741 40,300 48,354 47,795 54,706 16.6 16.0 20.8 18.0 3.9 3.2 12.1 10.4
Amazon 1,092,511 320,303 377,116 24,367 33,983 22,266 29,915 25.9 24.7 51.8 38.6 14.2 10.4 22.5 18.1
Facebook 641,632 80,643 97,511 28,614 35,614 30,041 35,767 22.7 22.7 22.4 18.7 5.4 4.3 14.2 11.7 eBay 38,246 12,717 13,443 3,578 3,822 2,739 2,945 56.2 26.8 14.0 12.2 10.8 8.0 9.4 8.8
Snap 17,584 1,838 2,409 -518 -205 -529 -228 -35.2 -33.7 - - 8.7 9.7 - -
Twitter 35,848 4,096 4,683 1,008 1,230 893 997 13.0 10.4 40.4 36.3 4.1 3.7 21.1 18.0
Shopify 33,215 1,756 2,331 32 93 79 135 2.3 2.7 453.9 273.0 13.2 12.9 462.0 233.2
MercadoLibre (Argentina) 27,889 2,368 3,318 34 192 44 174 1.7 5.9 816.2 164.1 14.8 12.0 283.4 101.3
Yahoo Japan (Japan) 15,966 10,581 11,278 1,566 1,725 882 967 9.7 10.3 18.0 16.1 1.7 1.6 4.3 3.9
Rakuten 18,550 12,740 14,519 1,175 662 690 363 8.3 4.8 24.0 53.6 2.0 2.0 - -
LINE 9,411 2,536 3,008 -190 54 -224 -27 -10.7 -3.2 - - 3.0 3.2 - 34.1
Tencent (China) 550,644 69,353 88,233 19,212 24,138 15,779 20,066 23.2 23.7 34.8 27.6 7.4 5.9 25.3 20.7
Alibaba 574,671 64,740 88,213 10,057 14,890 15,307 19,603 17.3 16.4 35.5 28.9 6.9 5.9 26.9 21.5
Baidu 67,802 20,602 23,969 2,184 4,173 3,252 4,439 10.4 11.9 20.4 15.0 2.2 2.0 15.9 11.4
JD.com 50,905 94,768 110,430 -86 744 988 1,700 2.3 6.7 52.5 31.1 4.6 4.2 39.1 21.8
Weibo 17,631 2,329 2,794 843 1,028 806 984 31.5 28.2 22.2 18.2 5.8 4.3 18.4 15.0
Momo 8,627 2,852 3,312 693 861 713 874 32.0 27.9 12.7 10.6 3.9 2.8 9.7 7.9
Yandex (Russia) 13,877 3,042 3,847 624 921 541 777 15.3 18.9 26.3 18.7 3.5 3.0 14.7 10.7
Average 16.0 14.9 30.7 25.1 5.7 4.9 17.5 14.5
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research
16| 2H19 Outlook [Internet] Mirae Asset Daewoo Research IV. Global peer group valuations
Global game players (Wbn, %, x)
Market Revenue OP NP ROE P/E P/B EV/EBITDA cap 19F 20F 19F 20F 19F 20F 19F 20F 19F 20F 19F 20F 19F 20F Netmarble (KOR) 10,502 2,493 2,723 396 499 302 375 6.5 7.6 34.9 28.0 2.2 2.1 17.4 14.4 NCsoft 11,386 1,884 2,505 672 1,039 514 775 18.7 23.4 22.1 14.6 3.8 3.2 14.5 9.6 Com2uS 1,287 527 574 161 180 137 154 14.9 14.6 9.3 8.3 1.3 1.1 3.5 3.1 NHN Entertainment 1,516 1,611 1,807 117 169 93 131 5.8 7.3 17.8 13.3 0.9 0.8 7.6 6.0 Pearl Abyss 2,216 582 690 210 286 170 230 34.7 33.9 12.4 9.2 3.7 2.7 9.3 7.0 Webzen 666 214 234 55 69 46 56 13.1 13.7 14.4 12.0 1.8 1.6 9.3 7.6 DoubleU Games 1,384 536 597 159 186 112 139 19.7 20.1 12.3 9.9 2.1 1.8 8.9 7.9 WeMade 795 145 162 8 17 7 14 4.4 6.4 89.3 41.5 2.7 2.7 49.0 29.9 Activision Blizzard (US) 44,310 7,467 8,273 2,439 2,850 1,958 2,318 12.5 14.0 22.7 19.2 3.1 2.8 14.9 12.9 Electronic Arts 33,017 5,569 5,960 1,609 1,880 1,377 1,546 22.8 21.6 24.1 21.0 5.4 4.9 15.8 13.8 Take-Two Interactive 13,168 3,404 3,205 772 811 642 645 32.9 18.2 21.1 20.6 5.1 4.3 15.0 14.2 Zynga 6,305 1,425 1,799 283 354 244 281 11.7 14.4 25.4 21.9 3.1 2.8 19.2 15.6 Glumobile 1,822 520 604 66 103 66 96 26.0 28.4 30.7 21.7 7.6 6.4 25.7 17.7 Ubisoft (France) 12,185 2,716 2,995 541 643 482 532 27.0 24.8 27.4 24.4 8.0 6.4 9.9 9.1 Nintendo (Japan) 52,387 14,026 13,773 3,540 3,893 2,596 2,871 16.6 16.0 18.5 16.6 2.9 2.6 10.8 10.0 Nexon 14,968 2,746 2,970 1,087 1,191 910 945 15.0 13.5 16.1 15.2 2.2 1.9 8.8 7.9 Square Enix 4,914 2,644 2,811 271 379 193 252 9.5 11.8 24.2 18.0 2.2 2.0 10.5 7.7 DeNA 2,740 1,304 1,250 156 123 122 96 4.6 3.7 21.1 27.1 1.0 0.9 5.7 6.6 Gungho Online 3,459 1,140 1,044 327 290 209 185 20.5 15.8 12.4 14.1 3.0 2.6 9.0 10.6 GREE 1,096 745 756 50 56 37 39 3.3 3.6 28.7 27.1 0.9 0.9 3.3 2.6 Tencent (China) 550,644 69,353 88,233 19,212 24,138 15,779 20,066 23.2 23.7 34.8 27.6 7.4 5.9 25.3 20.7 NetEase 41,887 14,214 16,890 1,532 1,742 1,566 1,849 14.6 15.0 26.7 22.2 4.4 3.8 18.8 16.2 Kingsoft 4,209 1,418 1,789 63 100 146 186 5.5 6.5 27.5 21.4 1.8 1.6 16.6 12.2 Youzu Interactive 3,097 791 934 213 263 212 259 20.5 20.3 14.4 11.7 3.0 2.4 12.9 10.7 Changyou 1,195 547 553 141 144 131 123 15.8 12.5 9.2 9.9 1.3 1.2 4.0 3.6 Average 16.0 15.6 23.9 19.1 3.2 2.8 13.8 11.1
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research
17| 2H19 Outlook [Internet] Mirae Asset Daewoo Research NCsoft (036570 KS)
Beginning of a rally
Investment points (Maintain) Buy • User numbers have recovered to the 4Q17 levels after the Lineage M update in March; daily revenue remains on a steep uptrend. Target Price (12M, W) 700,000 • The commercialization of Lineage M in Japan is scheduled for 2Q19 with pre-registrations already exceeding 1mn. Revenue from Lineage 2M, which is scheduled for release in 2H19, will further boost revenue this year. Share Price (5/8/19, W) 502,000 • • In 2020, Aion 2 and Blade & Soul 2 are expected to be unveiled. Expected Return 39% Risk factors • Delays to new game launches (a chronic industry-wide issue) OP (19F, Wbn) 852 • Weaker-than-expected results of new games Consensus OP (19F, Wbn) 680 • Potential strengthening of regulations EPS Growth (19F, %) 49.9 Market EPS Growth (19F, %) -18.3
P/E (19F, x) 17.6 Market P/E (19F, x) 12.0
KOSPI 2,168.01 150 Market Cap (Wbn) 11,013 FY (Dec.) 12/16 12/17 12/18 12/19F 12/20F 12/21F 140 NCsoft KOSPI Shares Outstanding (mn) 22 Revenue (Wbn) 984 1,759 1,715 2,116 2,353 2,882 Free Float (%) 81.9 130 OP (Wbn) 329 585 615 852 1,066 1,497 Foreign Ownership (%) 50.0 120 OP margin (%) 33.4 33.3 35.9 40.3 45.3 51.9
Beta (12M) 0.72 110 NP (Wbn) 272 441 418 627 741 1,041 332,500 52-Week Low 100 EPS (W) 12,416 20,104 19,061 28,577 33,796 47,429 526,000 52-Week High 90 ROE (%) 14.9 19.1 16.4 23.9 23.3 26.4 (%) 1M 6M 12M P/E (x) 19.9 22.3 24.5 17.6 14.9 10.6 80 Absolute 0.7 14.6 46.8 P/B (x) 2.7 3.4 3.7 3.3 2.8 2.3 70 Relative 2.7 10.6 65.918.4 18.8 18.1 2 19.4 Div.Yield (%) 1.5 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 Note: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Source: NCsoft, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates
18| 2H19 Outlook [Internet] Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Kakao (035720 KS)
Strong earnings momentum through 2020
Investment points (Maintain) Buy • 1) KakaoTalk ads, 2) webtoon/web novel revenue growth, and 3) the government’s bank wire fee cuts have reduced earnings uncertainties. Target Price (12M, W) 170,000 • Top-line growth is expected to outpace investment spending starting in 2019. • Potential sources of growth, including mobility and fintech, are expected to serve as long-term catalysts that can drive the company’s enterprise value higher. Share Price (5/8/19, W) 128,500 Risk factors Expected Return 32% • The launch of ride-hailing services was pushed back amid intense conflicts with the taxi industry. • Active business expansion should push up costs for workforce increases and marketing activities. OP (19F, Wbn) 146 • New business initiatives, such as Kakao Mobility’s carpool service, KakaoPay’s acquisition of Baro Investment & Securities, and additional stake acquisitions in KakaoBank, have been progressing more slowly than Consensus OP (19F, Wbn) 144 expected. EPS Growth (19F, %) 125.0 Market EPS Growth (19F, %) -18.3
P/E (19F, x) 93.1 Market P/E (19F, x) 12.0
KOSPI 2,168.01 120 Market Cap (Wbn) 10,717 FY (Dec.) 12/16 12/17 12/18 12/19F 12/20F 12/21F Kakao KOSPI Shares Outstanding (mn) 83 110 Revenue (Wbn) 1,464 1,972 2,417 2,971 3,591 4,162 Free Float (%) 62.6 OP (Wbn) 116 165 73 146 393 548 100 Foreign Ownership (%) 25.6 OP margin (%) 7.9 8.4 3.0 4.9 10.9 13.2
Beta (12M) 0.79 90 NP (Wbn) 58 109 48 115 295 403 52-Week Low 87,600 EPS (W) 874 1,602 613 1,380 3,539 4,835 80 52-Week High 128,500 ROE (%) 1.9 2.9 1.0 2.2 5.5 7.0 (%) 1M 6M 12M70 P/E (x) 88.1 85.5 168.0 93.1 36.3 26.6
Absolute 26.0 28.5 14.7 P/B (x) 1.5 2.3 1.7 2.0 1.9 1.8 60 Relative 28.5 24.0 29.618.4 18.8 18.12 19.4 Div.Yield (%) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Note: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Source: Kakao, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates
19| 2H19 Outlook [Internet] Mirae Asset Daewoo Research NAVER (035420 KS)
Negatives are dissipating; Bottom-fishing opportunity
Investment points (Maintain) Buy • Online shopping revenue growth has been accelerating since the mobile overhaul in 2019. • Once the commercial potential of LINE’s (72.8% stake) fintech business is confirmed, we will likely see a Target Price (12M, W) 176,000 valuation re-rating. • NAVER is expected to upgrade its ad business portfolio by leveraging its dominance in the search engine market to expand its proportion of high-margin ads. Share Price (5/8/19, W) 123,500 Risk factors Expected Return 43% • Weak earnings at LINE are depressing NAVER’s consolidated earnings. • The increase in video content consumption could weaken the company’s competitive in mobile traffic. Kakao’s launch of KakaoTalk ads could intensify competition in the mobile display ad market. OP (19F, Wbn) 800 •
Consensus OP (19F, Wbn) 859 EPS Growth (19F, %) -31.4
Market EPS Growth (19F, %) -18.3
P/E (19F, x) 45.7
Market P/E (19F, x) 12.0 KOSPI 2,168.01
Market Cap (Wbn) 20,354 120 FY (Dec.) 12/16 12/17 12/18 12/19F 12/20F 12/21F NAVER KOSPI Shares Outstanding (mn) 165 Revenue (Wbn) 4,023 4,678 5,587 6,479 7,400 8,382 110 Free Float (%) 78.1 OP (Wbn) 1,102 1,179 943 800 1,011 1,260 Foreign Ownership (%) 58.1 100 OP margin (%) 27.4 25.2 16.9 12.3 13.7 15.0
Beta (12M) 0.64 NP (Wbn) 749 773 649 445 751 943 90 52-Week Low 106,500 EPS (W) 4,546 4,689 3,937 2,702 4,555 5,721
52-Week High 156,400 80 ROE (%) 26.2 18.5 13.0 8.2 12.5 13.9
(%) 1M 6M 12M70 P/E (x) 34.1 37.1 31.0 45.7 27.1 21.6 Absolute 1.6 6.0 -15.5 P/B (x) 5.2 4.8 3.1 2.9 2.7 2.4 60 Relative 3.6 2.3 -4.518.4 18.8 18.12 19.4 Div.Yield (%) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Note: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Source: NAVER, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates
20| 2H19 Outlook [Internet] Mirae Asset Daewoo Research [Conclusion] A new driver for the next decade
Subscription-based • The internet sector has driven the global stock market over the past two decades. services taking center • Amid the growing influence of platforms, the combined contribution of internet giants to overall NASDAQ market cap is on the rise. stage • Amazon, Microsoft (MSFT US/CP: US$125), and Apple (AAPL US/CP: US$202) are seeing rising revenue contributions from subscription-based services. • Structural tailwinds are supporting internet firms’ earnings and share performances.
% of services revenue at Amazon, Microsoft, Contribution of Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Facebook to NASDAQ market cap and Apple (%) 25% Amazon 1.5x 21% 35 19% 20% 17% 14% 15% 15% 29.7 30 10% More than 2x 2016 2017 2018 2019F 2020F in 6 years 25 45% 44% MS 5.5x 36% 30% 20.5 20.5 30% 20% 15% 20 15% 8% 9% 16.7 0% 15 13.9 13.9 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019F 12.9 20% 17% Apple 2x 14% 10 16% 13% 11% 12% 9% 8% 5 4% 1/13 1/14 1/15 1/16 1/17 1/18 1/19 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019F
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research
21| 2H19 Outlook [Internet] Mirae Asset Daewoo Research [Conclusion] Top picks: NCsoft, Kakao, and NAVER
Uber IPO to signal a new • With the rapid development of internet infrastructure and services, the internet has become more deeply era intertwined with our daily lives. Overweight on major domestic internet firms • NCsoft: 1) Earnings momentum driven by new games; 2) the introduction of cloud games • Kakao: 1) Expectations for KakaoTalk ad revenue; 2) progress of the mobility and fintech businesses • NAVER : 1) Robust domestic earnings on the back of e-commerce; 2) LINE’s fintech business in Japan, Taiwan, and Thailand
Top picks
NCsoft (036570 KS/TP:700,000)
Kakao (035720 KS/TP:170,000)
NAVER (035420 KS/TP:176,000)
22| 2H19 Outlook [Internet] Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Coverage overview
Target Price Current Price Company Ticker Rating (12M, W) (5/8/19, W)
NCsoft 036570 KS Buy W700,000 W502,000
Netmarble 251270 KS Buy W149,000 W126,500
NAVER 035420 KS Buy W176,000 W123,500
Kakao 035720 KS Buy W170,000 W128,500
Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research
23| 2H19 Outlook [Internet] Mirae Asset Daewoo Research APPENDIX 1
Important Disclosures & Disclaimers 2-Year Rating and Target Price History
Company (Code) Date Rating Target Price Company (Code) Date Rating Target Price NCsoft(036570) 12/17/2017 Trading Buy 170,000 11/26/2018 Buy 700,000 11/05/2017 Buy 190,000 08/27/2018 No Coverage 08/10/2017 Buy 130,000 05/10/2018 Buy 500,000 06/18/2017 Buy 125,000 04/16/2018 Buy 600,000 05/11/2017 Buy 115,000 09/26/2017 Buy 640,000 NAVER(035420) 07/09/2017 Buy 600,000 01/23/2019 Buy 176,000 05/01/2017 Buy 500,000 11/26/2018 Buy 141,000 Kakao(035720) 08/27/2018 No Coverage 05/01/2019 Buy 170,000 04/26/2018 Buy 200,000 11/26/2018 Buy 130,000 10/26/2017 Buy 240,000 08/27/2018 No Coverage 04/04/2017 Buy 232,000 08/10/2018 Buy 150,000 05/11/2018 Trading Buy 130,000 02/08/2018 Trading Buy 150,000
(W) NCsoft (W) Kakao (W) NAVER
800,000 200,000 300,000
250,000 600,000 150,000 200,000
400,000 100,000 150,000
100,000 200,000 50,000 50,000
0 0 0 May 17 May 18May May 17 19 May 18May May 17 19 May 18 May 19
Stock Ratings Industry Ratings Buy : Relative performance of 20% or greater Overweight : Fundamentals are favorable or improving Trading Buy : Relative performance of 10% or greater, but with volatility Neutral : Fundamentals are steady without any material changes Hold : Relative performance of -10% and 10% Underweight : Fundamentals are unfavorable or worsening Sell : Relative performance of -10%
Ratings and Target Price History (Share price (─), Target price (▬), Not covered (■), Buy (▲), Trading Buy (■), Hold (●), Sell (◆)) * Our investment rating is a guide to the relative return of the stock versus the market over the next 12 months. * Although it is not part of the official ratings at Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd., we may call a trading opportunity in case there is a technical or short-term material development. * The target price was determined by the research analyst through valuation methods discussed in this report, in part based on the analyst’s estimate of future earnings. * The achievement of the target price may be impeded by risks related to the subject securities and companies, as well as general market and economic conditions.
24| 2H19 Outlook [Internet] Mirae Asset Daewoo Research APPENDIX 1
Equity Ratings Distribution & Investment Banking Services Buy Trading Buy Hold Sell Equity Ratings Distribution 83.52% 8.24% 8.24% 0.00% Investment Banking Services 82.61% 4.35% 13.04% 0.00% * Based on recommendations in the last 12-months (as of March 31, 2019)
Disclosures As of the publication date, Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. and/or its affiliates own 1% or more of NAVER`s shares outstanding. As of the publication date, Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. has acted as a liquidity provider for equity-linked warrants backed by shares of NAVER, Kakao, NCsoft as an underlying asset; other than this, Mirae Asset Daewoo has no other special interests in the covered companies.
Analyst Certification The research analysts who prepared this report (the “Analysts”) are registered with the Korea Financial Investment Association and are subject to Korean securities regulations. They are neither registered as research analysts in any other jurisdiction nor subject to the laws or regulations thereof. Each Analyst responsible for the preparation of this report certifies that (i) all views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the Analyst about any and all of the issuers and securities named in this report and (ii) no part of the compensation of the Analyst was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this report. Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. (“Mirae Asset Daewoo”) policy prohibits its Analysts and members of their households from owning securities of any company in the Analyst’s area of coverage, and the Analysts do not serve as an officer, director or advisory board member of the subject companies. Except as otherwise specified herein, the Analysts have not received any compensation or any other benefits from the subject companies in the past 12 months and have not been promised the same in connection with this report. Like all employees of Mirae Asset Daewoo, the Analysts receive compensation that is determined by overall firm profitability, which includes revenues from, among other business units, the institutional equities, investment banking, proprietary trading and private client division. At the time of publication of this report, the Analysts do not know or have reason to know of any actual, material conflict of interest of the Analyst or Mirae Asset Daewoo except as otherwise stated herein.
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25| 2H19 Outlook [Internet] Mirae Asset Daewoo Research APPENDIX 1
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26| 2H19 Outlook [Internet] Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Mirae Asset Daewoo International Network
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27| 2H19 Outlook [Internet] Mirae Asset Daewoo Research