Internet What to Expect in the Coming Decade

Internet What to Expect in the Coming Decade

2H19 Outlook Internet What to expect in the coming decade Chang-kwean Kim +822-3774-1614 [email protected] Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including the U.S. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT. Contents [Summary] 3 I. 2019 outlook 4 II. Medium/long-term outlook 5 III. Key factors/issues 6 IV. Global peer group valuations 16 V. Top picks 18 NCsoft, Kakao, NAVER [Conclusion] 21 [Summary] Top picks: NCsoft, Kakao, NAVER Overweight on the internet/game sector NCsoft (036570 KS) Kakao (035720 KS) NAVER (035420 KS) TP: W700,000 TP: W170,000 TP: W176,000 • 2Q19: Renewed Lineage M • KakaoTalk Earnings • Negatives priced in momentum chat tab ads momentum to continue • E-commerce • 2H19: Lineage 2M to be • through Surge in • NAVER vs. Coupang 2020 released webtoon revenue • 2020: Aion 2 and Blade & Soul 2 • LINE Pay Banking to be released • KakaoBank Big Securities • Takeoff of the cloud gaming KakaoPay picture Insurance market Kakao Mobility Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 3| 2H19 Outlook [Internet] Mirae Asset Daewoo Research I. 2019 outlook Strong earnings • NCsoft: Lineage (PC) and Lineage M revenue growth should resume in 2Q19; Lineage M revenue from Japan momentum expected in could emerge. • Kakao: New ads on KakaoTalk chat tabs (launched in May) should generate stronger earnings momentum 2Q for NCsoft and Kakao heading into the end of the year. • NAVER: Investments in new LINE (3938 JP/CP: JPY3,740) businesses should significantly increase in 2H19, weighing on consolidated operating profit. For the domestic business, e-commerce-driven growth should drive continued earnings improvements in 2019. Quarterly earnings trends for NCsoft, NAVER, and Kakao (2018-19) (Wbn) NCsoft (L) NAVER (L) Kakao (R) NAVER (Wbn) Quarterly earnings trend 350 LINE's investments to be concentrated in 2H 100 forecasts NAVER net profit to grow 25% in Korea Kakao NCsoft: 2Q < 3Q < 4Q Revenue from KakaoTalk chat tab ads 300 Kakao: 2Q < 3Q < 4Q NCsoft recognized starting in 2Q 80 NAVER: 1Q > 2Q > 3Q > 4Q Earnings surprise in 2Q thanks to New business revenue growth > Cost growth Lineage M 250 Lineage II to be launched in 2H 60 200 150 40 100 20 50 0 0 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19F 2Q19F 3Q19F 4Q19F Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates 4| 2H19 Outlook [Internet] Mirae Asset Daewoo Research II. Medium/long-term outlook All industries will • 2000-10: IPO of Amazon (AMZN US/CP: US$1,917); dot-com bubble; takeoff of the internet industry become internet • 2010-20: IPOs of Facebook (FB US/CP: US$189) and Alibaba (BABA US/CP: US$179); proliferation of mobile Improved convenience driven by the internet industries • 2020-30: IPOs of Uber and Airbnb Complete intertwining of the internet and everyday life Lifestyle changes led by advances in internet technology Mobile internet era 2030- -PC Smartphones -Web Apps (expansion) - Proliferation of social network services Uber’s Online ads: 70-80% IPO E-commerce: 30-40% Fax Mailbox Phased out Facebook’s Video IPO 2020 IoT era CD Online ads: 40-50% - Integration of the internet into all industries 2010 E-commerce: 10-20% -Smartphones All devices - 5G proliferation Dot-com - Individual devices Cloud (expansion) Alibaba’s bubble Online ads: 10-20% IPO E-commerce: 5-10% Fixed-line internet (PC) era 2000 - Proliferation of internet -Disks Web Amazon’s IPO Smartphones, social networks, Land lines, mail Wearables, VR calling video calling Start of paid services - Movies, digital music, comics Free content Proliferation of paid services (downloads) - Netflix and Spotify (streaming) Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 5| 2H19 Outlook [Internet] Mirae Asset Daewoo Research III. Key factors/issues: Takeoff of cloud gaming market Cloud gaming = Mobile games > AR/VR games Global gaming market outlook Global cloud gaming market outlook (US$bn) (US$mn) VR 2019 Mobile 500 PC 2011 Cloud gaming has 450 Handheld Console Mobile gaming becomes strong potential 450 Arcade 2006 largest segment 140 400 Steam, CAGR: 120 350 307 downloads +46% 100 300 1994 250 209 1977 80 Play Station Atari 2600 200 60 143 150 97 40 100 66 20 50 0 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2018 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F Source: Financial Times, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Source: WGR, ABC, Statista, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research M&A activities across global gaming industry Cloud gaming industry outlook (US$bn) Sep 2014 Jul 2016 Microsoft/Mojang Tencent/Supercell Feb. 2011 (2.5) 84.3% (8.6) Mobile games > AR/VR games Tencent/Riot Games, 70% Jan 2014 Nov 2015 (0.2) Jul. 2011 Zynga/Natural Activision - Mostly leveraging existing content (with proven track records) EA/PopCap Games Motion Games Blizzard/ - Convenient for both gamers and developers (1.3) (0.5) King Digital Mar 2012 (5.8) - Costs are borne by companies Zynga/OMGPOP (0.2) - Compatible with existing platforms, hardware and content ⇒ Cloud is now mainstream 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2017 Source: App Annie, Financial Times, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 6| 2H19 Outlook [Internet] Mirae Asset Daewoo Research III. Key factors/issues: Takeoff of cloud gaming market Global status of cloud gaming: 2019 marks the true beginning of the cloud gaming industry Company Product Release date Supporting devices No. of games Details • About 300,000 games (free and paid) are currently available in the App 300,000 games available Store iPhone, iPad, Mac, in the App Store; 100 Apple Apple Arcade Fall 2019 • 100 games to be added after launch Apple TV games to be added after • No ads or additional purchases; can be played offline; device shift launch feature available • Initial services to be offered via Google Chrome; can be accessed on all types of devices • Stadia is a platform for game players, developers, and YouTube Google Stadia 2019 All devices TBD streamers • Wi-Fi-enabled Stadia controller has been unveiled (directly connects to Google’s data center); capture button uploads gameplay directly to YouTube • Game streaming service that allows users to play Xbox games via PCs, consoles, or mobile devices Project PCs, consoles, phones, Microsoft 2019 More than 3,000 games • Building hardware for cloud services; testing various games within the xCloud tablets company; preparing kits for developers and users • Aiming to conduct Azure-based tests in October • Plans to allow global game players to enjoy tens of thousands of games Amazon TBD 2020 All devices TBD via Amazon Web Services • Already offering Twitch Prime to Amazon Prime subscribers • Released the Nvidia Shield version of GeForce Now in 2015 and the PC Shield TV, Shield version in 2017; currently in beta testing Portable, MAC • Likely to implement time-based scheme, rather than monthly 2015, 2017 Nvidia GeForce Now OS/Windows More than 500 games subscriptions, (US$25/20 hours for GTX 1060, 10 hours for 1080) (beta) OS/Android • 5G mobile service is currently undergoing internal testing; plans to offer devices an Android-based GeForce cloud gaming service through partnerships with LG Uplus and SoftBank PlayStation PS4, PS3, PS Vita, PS • Cloud gaming service PlayStation Now available since 2015 Sony 2014 More than 700 games Now console, PC • More than 700 game titles are available in 12 countries Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 7| 2H19 Outlook [Internet] Mirae Asset Daewoo Research III. Key factors/issues: Battle between NAVER and Coupang NAVER’s C2C vs. Coupang’s • The Korean e-commerce market grew 21.2% YoY in 2018 and is likely to expand 19.8% YoY in 2019. B2C • Korea recorded the highest e-commerce penetration rate (24.1%) among major markets in 2018. • In 2018, the C2C and B2C e-commerce markets were dominated by NAVER and Coupang, respectively. • In 2018, Smartstore, NAVER’s online marketplace, delivered GMV growth of 58% YoY, while Coupang’s GMV expanded 70% YoY. GMV by Korean online shopping mall (2017-18) (Wtr) 20 2017 2018 C2C Smartstore GMV +50%, YoY 15 B2C 10 +70% YoY 5 0 NAVER eBay Korea 11th Street Coupang WeMakePrice TMON Notes: Striped areas represent Smartstore GMV; Smartstore is NAVER’s online marketplace for small/medium-sized shopping malls, offline retailers (e.g., SMEs, department stores, discount stores), and overseas direct purchase businesses. Source: Press reports, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 8| 2H19 Outlook [Internet] Mirae Asset Daewoo Research III. Key factors/issues: Battle between NAVER and Coupang 24,000 vs. 300 • Coupang currently has about 24,000 employees (3,000 at the head office; 21,000 logistics employees). • In 2018, Coupang handled 5.21mn Rocket Delivery products, equivalent to 90% of its total GMV. • NAVER pursues C2C and offers optimal shopping experiences to consumers based on a massive product database with hundreds of millions of items. • NAVER is currently considering: 1) overhauling its mobile homepage to become more e-commerce-oriented; and 2) providing logistics warehouses. E-commerce overview by stage NAVER Coupang - Direct product viewing/browsing - Recommendation by salesperson or acquaintance Store visit Displays/ Purchase Transport showroom Customer Tangible goods like Cash/credit card or store books, appliances, etc. 1 2 3 <Internet> Clothing, cars, food, etc. Simplified Parcel delivery PC/mobile Financial and other services payment 4 5 <Product inspection> <Recommendation> <Delivery> VR/AR AI/Big Data Drones/autonomous cars Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 9| 2H19 Outlook [Internet] Mirae Asset Daewoo Research III. Key factors/issues: Battle between NAVER and Coupang Rapid growth of NAVER • In 2019, we expect both NAVER and Coupang to continue to deliver robust growth in GMV. and Coupang to be • NAVER’s total GMV (including Smartstore and purchases made via the search function), which expanded 28% YoY in 2018, will likely grow 25% YoY in 2019.

View Full Text

Details

  • File Type
    pdf
  • Upload Time
    -
  • Content Languages
    English
  • Upload User
    Anonymous/Not logged-in
  • File Pages
    27 Page
  • File Size
    -

Download

Channel Download Status
Express Download Enable

Copyright

We respect the copyrights and intellectual property rights of all users. All uploaded documents are either original works of the uploader or authorized works of the rightful owners.

  • Not to be reproduced or distributed without explicit permission.
  • Not used for commercial purposes outside of approved use cases.
  • Not used to infringe on the rights of the original creators.
  • If you believe any content infringes your copyright, please contact us immediately.

Support

For help with questions, suggestions, or problems, please contact us