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Universitat Autònoma De Barcelona China’s Assertive Turn: China’s Grand Strategy and Foreign Policy Adjustment through the Belt and Road Initiative Alejandra Peña ADVERTIMENT. Lʼaccés als continguts dʼaquesta tesi doctoral i la seva utilització ha de respectar els drets de la persona autora. Pot ser utilitzada per a consulta o estudi personal, així com en activitats o materials dʼinvestigació i docència en els termes establerts a lʼart. 32 del Text Refós de la Llei de Propietat Intel·lectual (RDL 1/1996). Per altres utilitzacions es requereix lʼautorització prèvia i expressa de la persona autora. En qualsevol cas, en la utilització dels seus continguts caldrà indicar de forma clara el nom i cognoms de la persona autora i el títol de la tesi doctoral. No sʼautoritza la seva reproducció o altres formes dʼexplotació efectuades amb finalitats de lucre ni la seva comunicació pública des dʼun lloc aliè al servei TDX. Tampoc sʼautoritza la presentació del seu contingut en una finestra o marc aliè a TDX (framing). Aquesta reserva de drets afecta tant als continguts de la tesi com als seus resums i índexs. ADVERTENCIA. El acceso a los contenidos de esta tesis doctoral y su utilización debe respetar los derechos de la persona autora. Puede ser utilizada para consulta o estudio personal, así como en actividades o materiales de investigación y docencia en los términos establecidos en el art. 32 del Texto Refundido de la Ley de Propiedad Intelectual (RDL 1/1996). Para otros usos se requiere la autorización previa y expresa de la persona autora. En cualquier caso, en la utilización de sus contenidos se deberá indicar de forma clara el nombre y apellidos de la persona autora y el título de la tesis doctoral. No se autoriza su reproducción u otras formas de explotación efectuadas con fines lucrativos ni su comunicación pública desde un sitio ajeno al servicio TDR. Tampoco se autoriza la presentación de su contenido en una ventana o marco ajeno a TDR (framing). Esta reserva de derechos afecta tanto al contenido de la tesis como a sus resúmenes e índices. WARNING. The access to the contents of this doctoral thesis and its use must respect the rights of the author. It can be used for reference or private study, as well as research and learning activities or materials in the terms established by the 32nd article of the Spanish Consolidated Copyright Act (RDL 1/1996). Express and previous authorization of the author is required for any other uses. In any case, when using its content, full name of the author and title of the thesis must be clearly indicated. Reproduction or other forms of for profit use or public communication from outside TDX service is not allowed. Presentation of its content in a window or frame external to TDX (framing) is not authorized either. These rights affect both the content of the thesis and its abstracts and indexes. PhD Programme in Politics, Policies and International Relations Department of Public Law and Legal History Studies Department of Political Science and Public Law Institute of Government and Public Policy China’s Assertive Turn: China’s Grand Strategy and Foreign Policy Adjustment through the Belt and Road Initiative by Alejandra Peña PhD Thesis Supervisor and tutor: Dr. Laura Feliu Martinez September 2019 ii AGRADECIMIENTOS El camino de escribir una tesis es solitario, no obstante, no podría haber llegado hasta aquí sin el apoyo de diferentes personas. Dentro del grupo de gente que me acogió en la Universidad Autónoma de Barcelona, debo agradecer en primer lugar a mi Directora de Tesis, Dra. Laura Feliu por brindarme su apoyo y guía en los momentos más difíciles de este camino. Al Dr. Ferran Izquierdo y demás miembros del grupo de investigación TRANSMENA, por su apoyo y los gratos momentos compartidos. Al Comité Académico del Programa de Doctorado en Ciencia Política, Políticas Públicas y Relaciones Internacionales, Dr. Margarita León, Dr. Rafael Grasa y Dra. Eva Ostergard, por todo su apoyo y consideración a lo largo de estos años. A mi Alma Mater, la Universidad de los Andes en Venezuela. Por darme la oportunidad de formarme fuera de sus aulas y seguir creciendo profesionalmente. En especial a mis compañeros de trabajo y mentores. Al Dr. Eric Florence, Director del French Centre for Research on Contemporary China, por haberme dado la oportunidad de realizar mi estancia de investigación en Hong Kong y Beijing, a través de la cual me fue posible realizar mi trabajo de campo y obtener valiosas observaciones para mi investigación. De la misma manera quisiera agradecer a Henry Wu y Judith Audin por hacerme sentir como en casa. De manera muy especial, a Claudia Rives, mi compañera en este camino del Doctorado. Por brindarme siempre las palabras adecuadas en los momentos en que desmayaba, por todos los momentos y noches de desvelo en las que juntas enfrentamos los retos y obstáculos de este camino. Gracias por convertirte en mi familia en este país, por abrirme las puertas de tu casa. Sin tu apoyo alcanzar esta meta hoy no sería posible. Aquí seguiré a tu lado para el momento en el que tu también alcances este sueño. A mi familia de Barcelona, por vivir tan cerca de mí los vaivenes de esta experiencia. A mi familia en Venezuela por darme su apoyo en la distancia, en especial a mi tía Yaneira, por su amor e incondicional apoyo. Finalmente, quisiera dedicar esta tesis a mis grandes amores. A mi madre por ser siempre fuente inagotable de amor. A Mis hermanos, Ale y Kike por ser mi ejemplo y soporte durante los momentos más difíciles. A mi padre que desde donde este sigue guiando mis pasos. A mi esposo Andrés, por haber hecho de este sueño algo suyo también, y por vivir cada risa y cada lagrima como si fuera suya. Los amo infinito. Este logro también es de Ustedes. ii TABLE OF CONTENTS AGRADECIMIENTOS ................................................................................................................................ I TABLE OF CONTENTS ............................................................................................................................ III SUMMARY ............................................................................................................................................. 7 RESUMEN .............................................................................................................................................. 9 LIST OF ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS .......................................................................................... 11 LIST OF FIGURES AND CHARTS ............................................................................................................. 13 CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION: PUZZLE, THEORETICAL BACKGROUND AND METHODOLOGY ................. 15 1. PRESENTING THE RESEARCH................................................................................................................ 15 1.1. The Rise of China as a Global Power .................................................................................... 21 1.2. The Belt and Road Initiative................................................................................................. 24 2. RESEARCH PUZZLE ............................................................................................................................ 26 2.1. Research Questions and Working Hypothesis ...................................................................... 29 3. THEORETICAL BACKDROP: THE DEBATE ON CHINA’S RISE AND GRAND STRATEGY ........................................... 31 3.1. The Realist Account and the Emergence of the “China Threat Theory” ................................ 33 3.2. The Liberal Account ............................................................................................................. 35 3.3. The Constructivist Account................................................................................................... 39 3.4. Critical Theory ..................................................................................................................... 40 3.5. Foreign Policy Analysis (FPA) ............................................................................................... 43 3.6. Sociology of Power Perspective (SoP) .................................................................................. 45 4. RESEARCH DESIGN ........................................................................................................................... 47 4.1. Research Methodology ........................................................................................................ 47 4.2. Research Methods ............................................................................................................... 47 4.3. Research Techniques and Data Collection ............................................................................ 48 4.3.1. Documentary Analysis ...................................................................................................... 48 4.3.2. Qualitative Interviews ...................................................................................................... 49 CHAPTER II. FRAMEWORK FOR ANALYSIS: GRAND STRATEGY AND FOREIGN POLICY ADJUSTMENT ... 51 1. ON THE EXPLANATORY FACTORS OF CHINA’S GRAND STRATEGY AND FOREIGN POLICY ADJUSTMENT ..................... 52 1.1. Systemic factors ................................................................................................................... 53 1.1.1. Structural Changes in the global economy ........................................................................ 53 1.1.2. Fluctuations
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