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Fire and Vegetation Dynamics in North-West Siberia During the Last https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2020-174 Preprint. Discussion started: 12 June 2020 c Author(s) 2020. CC BY 4.0 License. Fire and vegetation dynamics in North-West Siberia during the last 60 years based on high-resolution remote sensing Oleg Sizov1,*, Ekaterina Ezhova2,*, Petr Tsymbarovich3, Andrey Soromotin4, Nikolay Prihod’ko4, Tuukka Petäjä2,4, Sergej Zilitinkevich2,5, Markku Kulmala2,4, Jaana Bäck6, and Kajar Köster6 1Institute of Oil and Gas Problems Russian Academy of Science, Moscow, Russia 2Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR)/Physics, University of Helsinki, Finland 3Institute of Geography Russian Academy of Science, Moscow, Russia 4Tyumen’ State University, Tyumen’, Russia 5Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland 6Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR)/Forest Sciences, University of Helsinki, Finland *These authors contributed equally to this work. Correspondence: Ekaterina Ezhova (ekaterina.ezhova@helsinki.fi) Abstract. Rapidly warming Arctic undergoes transitions that can influence global carbon balance. One of the key processes is the shift towards plant species with higher biomass underlining a stronger carbon sink. The shift is predicted by the models based on abiotic climatic factors but it is not always confirmed with observations. Here we use high-resolution remote sensing to study the process of transition of tundra into forest on the 20 000 km2 area in North-West Siberia. Overall, 40% of the study 5 area was burned during 60-yr period. Three quarters of the burned areas were dry tundra. Ca 10% of the study area experienced 2-3 fires with an interval of 15-60 years, suggesting a shorter fire return interval than that reported earlier for the northern areas of Central Siberia (130-350 years). Based on our results, the shift in vegetation (within the 60-years period) occurred in 40-85% of the territories that experienced fires, suggesting a strong role of disturbances for the tree advance. All fire-affected territories were flat, therefore no effect of topography was detected. Oppositely, in the undisturbed areas, tundra-forest transition was 10 observed only in 6-15% of the territories, characterized by a steeper topographic slope. Our results show that the fires often originated near the centres of anthropogenic activity, which is continuously increasing due to the economic importance of the region. This might explain larger frequency of major fires in the northern territories of West Siberia compared to Central Siberia. 1 Introduction 15 North-West Siberia is the region subject to a strong warming trend in summer as compared to the Arctic average. The annual warming trend reported for the entire Arctic (data set for 1971-2017) is 0.6°C per decade, resulting from the cold season trend of 0.7°C per decade, and the warm season (June-September) trend of 0.4°C per decade (Box et al., 2019) in the Arctic as a whole. According to the 2nd Assessment report on the climate change on the Russian territory (Katsov et al., 2014), the winter warming trend in North-West Siberia (data set from 1972–2012) is 0.4-0.7°C per decade, which is comparable to the 20 trends reported for the entire Arctic. However, the summer trend is 0.8-1.0°C higher per decade, double that is reported for 1 https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2020-174 Preprint. Discussion started: 12 June 2020 c Author(s) 2020. CC BY 4.0 License. the entire Arctic. At the same time, meteorological observations indicate that snow cover thickness increased at the rate 2-10 cm per decade but the number of snow cover days decreased at the rate up to 8 days per decade (Katsov et al., 2014). An increase in warm degree-days favors a shift of vegetation type towards more southern species, and consequently, transforming tundra environment into shrubs and forest vegetation. The higher amount of biomass in the shrubs and trees will increase 25 terrestrial carbon sink providing means for climate mitigation. Forest ecosystems can additionally enhance carbon uptake via complex atmosphere-biosphere feedback mechanisms (Kulmala et al., 2013; Kalliokoski et al., 2019). However, there can be also adverse effects. The forests and woodlands are a habitat of ticks and tree line advance could bring diseases, such as borreliosis and encephalitis, to previously non-endemic areas. Shrubification of tundra has been reported in many recent studies (Myers-Smith and Hik, 2018; Maliniemi et al., 2018; 30 Bjorkman et al., 2020) and it has been associated with the greening of the Arctic (Myers-Smith et al., 2020). However, there is no general agreement regarding tree propagation. Modelling studies based on abiotic factors predict tree-line advance to the north (Tchebakova et al., 2010; Kaplan and New, 2006; Aakala et al., 2014). Nevertheless, this advance has been only partially confirmed by observations (Harsch and Bader, 2011) and observed rates are extremely low as compared to theoretical predictions (Van Bogaert et al., 2011). On the contrary, the study based on the forest inventories from the eastern United States 35 shows that forested areas shrink rather than expand on most plots at their range limits (Zhu et al., 2012). It was hypothesized that the biotic factors have a significant effect together with the abiotic climatic factors (Woodward et al., 2004). Availability of seeds, germination success and presence of major species competing with newly establishing plants can all influence propaga- tion of the tree-line. A recent study suggests that the shift of biomes occurs episodically and requires a disturbance (Renwick and Rocca, 2015). In northern latitudes (boreal, subarctic and arctic areas), wildfires and grazing by reindeer are the two main 40 disturbances that really influence the vegetation structure and dynamics (Köster et al., 2013; Narita et al., 2015), which in turn induce shifts in ecosystem processes, e.g. nutrient cycles and ecological interactions. The reindeer regulate the abundance of species and community composition via grazing. Both observations and field exper- iments in tundra show different response to warming with and without large herbivores (Post and Pedersen, 2008; Olofsson et al., 2009), manifested by enhanced growth of deciduous shrubs on the sites not affected by grazing. However, evergreen 45 shrubs and trees demonstrate an opposite trend towards increased growth at the sites exposed to grazing (Bernes et al., 2015). The effect of wildfires on vegetation shift in tundra is less studied. Fire has been found to reduce the cover of lichens and bryophytes (Joly et al., 2009), but enhance the growth of grasses and shrubs (Barrett et al., 2012; Narita et al., 2015). Land- hausser and Wein (1993) observed that forests in the Canada’s Northwest Territories advance in the forest-tundra ecotone after a strong wildfire. Long before that Sannikov et al. (1970) noted that seedlings survival is the highest on bare mineral soils, and 50 high intensity and severity wildfires, which remove the organic material and expose mineral soil, can favor tree survival. Here we study the shift in vegetation based on high-resolution remote sensing data, in the territory including southern tundra, forest-tundra ecotone and northern taiga in the Nadym-Pur district of North-West Siberia. Opposite to northerly-located Yamal and Gydan peninsulas and westerly-located Priuralsky district, this territory has not yet suffered from reindeer pasture overuse (Matveev and Musaev, 2013). Therefore, grazing could be of secondary importance for the ecosystem changes in these 55 areas. We hypothesize, based on the study of Landhausser and Wein (1993), that forest expansion occurs mainly in the areas 2 https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2020-174 Preprint. Discussion started: 12 June 2020 c Author(s) 2020. CC BY 4.0 License. affected by relatively recent wildfires, while other areas (non-disturbed background areas) demonstrate only a minor change in vegetation. Thus, we focus on the effect of wildfires on the vegetation, specifically on tundra-forest and tundra-woodlands transition. The objectives of the study are: 1) to quantify burned surface areas and assess the frequency and causes of wildfires; 60 2) to study the probability of dry tundra transition to woodlands and forests, separately in the fire-affected and non-disturbed background sites; 3) to study long-term time series of regional climatic factors in order to assess the possibility of shifts from certain types of biomes towards more southern ones based on abiotic factors. 2 Materials and methods 65 2.1 Vegetation dynamics We used remote sensing observations and topographic maps to monitor changes in vegetation dynamics in North-West Siberia, Yamal-Nenets Autonomous district, between latitudes 65 and 67 degree (Fig. 1). The data sets used for analysis of vegetation dynamics are summarized in Table 1. We compared the data from archive imagery from the ‘Corona’ mission (Ruffner, 1995) and topographic maps to the state-of-the-art satellite data of super high resolution (e.g., WorldView-1,2,3,4; GeoEye-1; ‘Resurs- 70 P’ 1-3). This method is appropriate for the forest-tundra ecotone with small percentage of forest cover and spatial scales of about hundred kilometers. In forest-tundra transitional zones, it outperforms traditionally used forest masks employing optical imagery or radiolocation - Landsat (Hansen et al., 2013) and PALSAR-2/PALSAR/JERS-1 (Shimada et al., 2014). The latter, as demonstrated in Fig. 2, often result in imprecise and erroneous data (Tropek et al., 2014). The PALSAR-2 forest mask has the lowest precision. The Landsat mask has a higher precision but it is not able to reproduce the forest cover in the forest-tundra 75 ecotone. Due to insufficient quality of the ‘Corona’ images (Frost and Epstein, 2014), we additionally used a vector topographic map (Table 1) providing information on the forest (Fig.
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