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Russia's Economic Resurgence A DIFFERENT COUNTRY RUSSIA’S ECONOMIC RESURGENCE LÚCIO VINHAS DE SOUZA CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY STUDIES BRUSSELS The Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS) is an independent policy research institute based in Brussels. Its mission is to produce sound analytical research leading to constructive solutions to the challenges facing Europe today. CEPS Paperbacks present analysis and views by leading experts on important questions in the arena of European public policy, written in a style geared to an informed but generalist readership. The author, Lúcio Vinhas de Souza, is the official responsible for Russia at the Directorate–General for Economic and Financial Affairs of the European Commission. The views expressed in this report are those of the author writing in a personal capacity and do not necessarily reflect those of CEPS, the European Commission or any other institution with which he is associated. Cover photo: Construction site in Moscow, September 2007 ISBN 13: 978-92-9079-767-8 © Copyright 2008, Centre for European Policy Studies. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means – electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise – without the prior permission of the Centre for European Policy Studies. Centre for European Policy Studies Place du Congrès 1, B-1000 Brussels Tel: 32 (0) 2 229.39.11 Fax: 32 (0) 2 219.41.51 e-mail: [email protected] Internet: http://www.ceps.eu CONTENTS Preface .................................................................................................................................. i Acknowledgements .........................................................................................................iii 1. Russia’s Economic Performance: The 1991-2008 ‘Transitions’............................1 1.1 Economic reform in Russia during the early 1990s.......................................1 1.1.1 Gorbachev and incidental reforms ...................................................1 1.1.2 The Yeltsin economic reform programme .......................................4 1.1.3 A timeline of reform policies .............................................................7 1.2 The period 1997–98, or a crisis forewarned..................................................10 1.3 Lessons from Russia’s first transition ...........................................................14 1.4 Macro performance during Russia’s transitions .........................................15 1.4.1 GDP performance..............................................................................15 1.4.2 Inflation ..............................................................................................18 1.4.3 Exchange rate dynamics...................................................................20 1.4.4 External position................................................................................21 1.4.5 Fiscal position ....................................................................................22 1.5 Post-1998 macroeconomic performance.......................................................23 1.5.1 1999–2000............................................................................................24 1.5.2 2001–05................................................................................................26 1.5.3 2006–07: The beginnings of a new growth cycle? .........................35 2. Russia under Putin: The Incomplete Reform Agenda .......................................40 2.1 Russia under Vladimir Putin .........................................................................40 2.1.1 Filling the reform vacuum ...............................................................40 2.1.2 Is Russia such a poor reformer? ......................................................44 2.2 Fiscal and monetary institutions and the financial system........................48 2.2.1 Recent fiscal performance and fiscal institutions..........................48 2.2.2 The monetary and exchange-rate policy frameworks and the financial system...........................................................................54 2.3 Foreign direct investment...............................................................................62 2.3.1 Recent FDI performance...................................................................62 2.3.2 Origins of FDI inflows ......................................................................67 2.3.3 Sectoral distribution of investment inflows ..................................68 2.3.4 Reforms in FDI legislation ...............................................................69 2.4 Reforms in the energy sector in Russia: Gazprom......................................73 2.5 Competitiveness ..............................................................................................82 2.6 Taming the leviathan: The reform of the Russian state .............................86 2.7 Inequality and social reform..........................................................................90 3. Conclusions: A Different Country.........................................................................94 Bibliography .....................................................................................................................97 List of Figures Figure 1.1 GDP growth rates in Russia (%) ...................................................................15 Figure 1.2 Russian GDP and GDP in PPP ($ billion)....................................................16 Figure 1.3 GDP index measures (base year 1989) .........................................................17 Figure 1.4 Comparative GDP growth rates (%) ............................................................18 Figure 1.5 CPI, pre- and post-1998..................................................................................19 Figure 1.6 Exchange rate developments ........................................................................20 Figure 1.7 External developments ..................................................................................22 Figure 1.8 Balance of the federal government budget..................................................23 Figure 1.9 Monthly industrial production index (1993=100) ......................................25 Figure 1.10 Oil and gas prices ($)....................................................................................27 Figure 1.11 Sector contributions to GDP growth (%) ...................................................32 Figure 1.12 Structure of industrial value added in 2000 (with official data in the top panel and adjusted data from the World Bank in the bottom panel)......................................................................................33 Figure 1.13 Demand-side components of GDP, 1999–2006 .........................................34 Figure 1.14 Growth in large emerging markets, 1999–2006 (%) .................................38 Figure 2.1 EBRD transition indicators for Russia and regional groups.....................45 Figure 2.2 Doing Business 2008 rankings for Russia and others ................................47 Figure 2.3 Russian Trading System stock index ...........................................................60 Figure 2.4 FDI in Russia and the CIS ($) ........................................................................63 Figure 2.5 Net FDI/portfolio and net total inflows ($ billion)....................................64 Figure 2.6 Relative Russian productivity (100: 1995-01) ..............................................85 Figure 2.7 Unemployment and poverty.........................................................................91 List of Tables Table B1.1 Privatisation revenues in Russia and the share of the private sector in GDP ($ billion)............................................................................................. 6 Table 1.1 IMF lending to Russia, by type of arrangement and value (in $ million) .. 9 Table 1.2 Contribution of sectors to industrial production growth (%).................... 26 Table 1.3 Imports, exports and the current account surplus ...................................... 28 Table 1.4 Terms of trade and nominal export indexes (2001=100) ............................ 28 Table 1.5 Production of oil and natural gas in Russia ................................................. 29 Table B1.2 Companies’ shares in oil and gas production in Russia ...........................30 Table 2.1 Summary of operations of the enlarged government, 2000–05 (% of GDP)..........................................................................................................51 Table 2.2 Stated objectives and targets of the CBR .......................................................55 Table 2.3 Sources of investment into Russia..................................................................67 Table 2.4 Sectoral distributions of FDI inflows into Russia, 2005–07 .........................69 Table 2.5 Gazprom’s foreign subsidiaries and affiliates ..............................................79 Table 2.6 Shares of industry and services in GDP and employment for Russia ......84 Table B2.4a Russian outgoing capital flows ($ billion).................................................65 Table B2.4b Ranking of Russian transnational corporations among CIS and south- eastern European transnational corporations, by foreign assets ..........66 Table B2.4c Examples of large outgoing FDI by Russian transnational corporations in 2006–07 ...............................................................................66
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