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SCENARIOS for MARITIME AREAS 2050 Preparation of Scenarios for the Future of Finnish Maritime Areas Introduction How to Read the Scenarios

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SCENARIOS for MARITIME AREAS 2050 Preparation of Scenarios for the Future of Finnish Maritime Areas Introduction How to Read the Scenarios SCENARIOS FOR MARITIME AREAS 2050 Preparation of scenarios for the future of Finnish maritime areas Introduction How to read the scenarios Scenarios for the future of the maritime area The scenarios described here may seem more and their impact assesment were created or less likely for different people.The purpose for maritime spatial planning. The scenarios is not, however, to select one scenario above discuss the changes in the operating environ- others by placing the scenarios in an or- ment of the maritime area as well as the needs der of likelihood or preference. Instead, the and views of interest groups regarding the fu- overall picture formed by the scenarios should ture development of the Finnish maritime area. be viewed. The events taking place in the future The assessment concerns, in particular, energy, are often a combination of different scenarios. maritime transport, environment, fishing and aquaculture, cultural heritage, tourism and rec- reational use, defence, marine industries, bio- technology and mineral extraction industries. In this document, the descriptions of mari- time areas presented in the scenarios as well as the risks and opportunities are a compila- tion of materials of the workshops organised The scenarios presented here are descrip- in spring 2019. The work has been commis- tions of the possible and alternative futures sioned by the Ministry of the Environment. of the operating environment in Finnish maritime areas until 2050. They are not an attempt to predict the future; instead, they are intended for the development of thinking and perspectives. The scenarios guide towards varied and consistent thinking over some alter- native future options and thereby enhance the conditions for interpreting and understanding current phenomena and enhancing the plan- ning of operations and the ability to respond. 2 Content Change agents of the operating enviroment � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �4 The Archipelago Sea and southern Sea of Bothnia � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 26 Scenarios for maritime areas 2050 � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �5 Description of the area � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 26 Impacts of scenario 2 � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 27 Northern Sea of Bothnia, the Kvarken and the bay of Bothnia � � � 28 Scenario 1 6 Description of the area � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 28 Maritime area future table � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �7 Impacts of scenario 2 � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 29 National description � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �8 Description of plot � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �10 Scenario 3 30 Impacts on MSP’s objectives � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 11 The Gulf of Finland � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 12 Maritime area future table � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 31 Description of the area � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 12 National description � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 32 Impacts of scenario 1 � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 13 Description of the plot � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 34 The Archipelago Sea and southern Sea of Bothnia � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 14 Impacts on MSP’s objectives � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 35 Description of the area � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 14 The Gulf of Finland � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 36 Impacts of scenario 1 � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 15 Description of the area � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 36 Northern Sea of Bothnia, the Kvarken and the bay of Bothnia � � � � 16 Impacts of scenario 3 � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 37 Description of the area � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �16 The Archipelago Sea and southern Sea of Bothnia � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 38 Impacts of scenario 1 � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 17 Description of the area � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 38 Impacts of scenario 3 � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 39 Northern Sea of Bothnia, the Kvarken and the bay of Bothnia � � � 40 Scenario 2 18 Description of the area � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 40 Maritime area future table � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �19 Impacts of scenario 3 � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 41 National description � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 20 Description of the plot � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 22 Compiled scenarios 42 Impacts on MSP’s objectives � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 23 The Gulf of Finland � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �24 Maritime area future table � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 43 Description of the area � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 24 Illustration of scenarios� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 44 Impacts of scenario 2 � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 25 3 Change agents of the operating enviroment Focus of the maritime scenarios Development of technology (biotechnology, 3D, robotics) Climate change Energy price Contextual Climate operating treaties Given factors environment Globalisation Interest towards (international (factors) the Baltic Sea Attitudes and level) Development of blue as a travel environmental actions bioeconomy destination Foodstuffs market Ideologies Fishing of the society General security situation Development of port automation Development Preservation of cultural Development Development of the of the arctic heritage of global energy sector zone economy Nature Population conservation in Fishing licences movements Finland’s Role and Given factors the Baltic Sea Focus of economy development (national level) Weather scenarios and of the EU competitive Development of conditions strength tourism in the Traffic in the Baltic Sea Mariculture fairways of the Condition Availability Baltic Sea of the Development and price of maritime of Russia resources Tourism area companies in the Population of the Baltic Sea archipelago Foreign trade Infrastructure Development maintenance of countries Regional in the Baltic Ports Immediate Maritime industry structure Sea area operating Servitization Finnish Defence Offshore wind environment Forces farms Factors which can (actors) be influenced Development Urbanization Regional of China regulation Agriculture Digitalisation Innovation policy and competency Seabed surveying development Development of maritime transport Internal operating environment (actions) Factors which can be guided 4 Scenarios for maritime areas 2050 Three alternative images of the future at the Baltic Sea Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Dancing with big businesses Profitability under the enviroment’s terms Baltic Sea of restrictions and tensions Baltic Sea as a source of Baltic Sea as an oasis of Baltic Sea as a breadbasket energy and minerals recreation and experiences and strategic playing field • The EU has been moving towards a more liberal market • Concern over the environment is increasing and cli- • The power struggle between global superpowers has es- and deregulation is ongoing. The interests of companies mate issues become a central focus of politics. Con- calated into a trade war and tensions between the West and cities are steering the development more than sumers are more environmentally aware and their choic- and Russia are increasing in the Baltic Sea. The uncer- the state. es also guide companies towards providing sustainable tain security situation reduces investments. solutions. • In addition to food production, maritime areas are being • Cooperation between EU countries increases and the utilised especially as raw material for high added value • The search for renewable forms of energy is strong and union tightens its control especially with respect to products for the needs
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