SCENARIOS for MARITIME AREAS 2050 Preparation of Scenarios for the Future of Finnish Maritime Areas Introduction How to Read the Scenarios

SCENARIOS FOR MARITIME AREAS 2050 Preparation of scenarios for the future of Finnish maritime areas Introduction How to read the scenarios

Scenarios for the future of the maritime area The scenarios described here may seem more and their impact assesment were created or less likely for different people.The purpose for maritime spatial planning. The scenarios is not, however, to select one scenario above discuss the changes in the operating environ- others by placing the scenarios in an or- ment of the maritime area as well as the needs der of likelihood or preference. Instead, the and views of interest groups regarding the fu- overall picture formed by the scenarios should ture development of the Finnish maritime area. be viewed. The events taking place in the future The assessment concerns, in particular, energy, are often a combination of different scenarios. maritime transport, environment, fishing and aquaculture, cultural heritage, tourism and recreational use, defence, marine industries, biotechnology and mineral extraction industries. In this document, the descriptions of maritime areas presented in the scenarios as well as the risks and opportunities are a compila- tion of materials of the workshops organised The scenarios presented here are descrip- in spring 2019. The work has been commis- tions of the possible and alternative futures sioned by the Ministry of the Environment. of the operating environment in Finnish maritime areas until 2050. They are not an attempt to predict the future; instead, they are intended for the development of thinking and perspectives. The scenarios guide towards varied and consistent thinking over some alternative future options and thereby enhance the conditions for interpreting and understanding current phenomena and enhancing the planning of operations and the ability to respond.

2 Content

Change agents of the operating enviroment ��4 The Archipelago Sea and southern Sea of Bothnia �� 26 Scenarios for maritime areas 2050 ��5 Description of the area �� 26 Impacts of scenario 2 �� 27 Northern Sea of Bothnia, the Kvarken and the bay of Bothnia �� 28 Scenario 1 6 Description of the area ��28 Maritime area future table ��7 Impacts of scenario 2 ��29 National description ��8 Description of plot ��10 Scenario 3 30 Impacts on MSP’s objectives ��11 The Gulf of Finland ��12 Maritime area future table �� 31 Description of the area �� 12 National description �� 32 Impacts of scenario 1 �� 13 Description of the plot �� 34 The Archipelago Sea and southern Sea of Bothnia �� 14 Impacts on MSP’s objectives �� 35 Description of the area �� 14 The Gulf of Finland �� 36 Impacts of scenario 1 �� 15 Description of the area ��36 Northern Sea of Bothnia, the Kvarken and the bay of Bothnia �� 16 Impacts of scenario 3 �� 37 Description of the area ��16 The Archipelago Sea and southern Sea of Bothnia �� 38 Impacts of scenario 1 �� 17 Description of the area ��38 Impacts of scenario 3 ��39 Northern Sea of Bothnia, the Kvarken and the bay of Bothnia �� 40 Scenario 2 18 Description of the area ��40 Maritime area future table ��19 Impacts of scenario 3 �� 41 National description ��20 Description of the plot �� 22 Compiled scenarios 42 Impacts on MSP’s objectives �� 23 The Gulf of Finland ��24 Maritime area future table �� 43 Description of the area �� 24 Illustration of scenarios ��44 Impacts of scenario 2 �� 25

3 Change agents of the operating enviroment Focus of the maritime scenarios

Development of technology (biotechnology, 3D, robotics) Climate change Energy price

Contextual Climate operating treaties Given factors environment Globalisation Interest towards (international (factors) the Baltic Sea Attitudes and level) Development of blue as a travel environmental actions bioeconomy destination Foodstuffs market Ideologies Fishing of the society General security situation Development of port automation Development Preservation of cultural Development Development of the of the arctic heritage of global energy sector zone economy Nature Population conservation in Fishing licences movements Finland’s Role and Given factors the Baltic Sea Focus of economy development (national level) Weather scenarios and of the EU competitive Development of conditions strength tourism in the Traffic in the Baltic Sea Mariculture fairways of the Condition Availability Baltic Sea of the Development and price of maritime of Russia resources Tourism area companies in the Population of the Baltic Sea archipelago Foreign trade

Infrastructure Development maintenance of countries Regional in the Baltic Ports Immediate Maritime industry structure Sea area operating Servitization Finnish Defence Offshore wind environment Forces farms Factors which can (actors) be influenced Development Urbanization Regional of China regulation

Agriculture Digitalisation Innovation policy and competency Seabed surveying development Development of maritime transport Internal operating environment (actions) Factors which can be guided

4 Scenarios for maritime areas 2050 Three alternative images of the future at the Baltic Sea

Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3

Dancing with big businesses Profitability under the enviroment’s terms Baltic Sea of restrictions and tensions Baltic Sea as a source of Baltic Sea as an oasis of Baltic Sea as a breadbasket energy and minerals recreation and experiences and strategic playing field

• The EU has been moving towards a more liberal market • Concern over the environment is increasing and cli- • The power struggle between global superpowers has es- and deregulation is ongoing. The interests of companies mate issues become a central focus of politics. Con- calated into a trade war and tensions between the West and cities are steering the development more than sumers are more environmentally aware and their choic- and Russia are increasing in the Baltic Sea. The uncer- the state. es also guide companies towards providing sustainable tain security situation reduces investments. solutions. • In addition to food production, maritime areas are being • Cooperation between EU countries increases and the utilised especially as raw material for high added value • The search for renewable forms of energy is strong and union tightens its control especially with respect to products for the needs of companies. the state supports the connection of offshore wind environmental and energy politics. power to the grid. Production is profitable also further • Environmental politics are ineffective and we are not get- from the shore. • Energy self-sufficiency on the European level is empha- ting rid of fossil fuels as we wanted. Offshore wind pow- sised and a joint energy union of the EU is created. Re- er is built by large global corporations as very extensive • The electrification of traffic also reaches to waters. newable energy, such as offshore wind power, is sub- farms with little regulation. sidised and farms are constructed alongside transfer • Small volume transport becomes more and more cables. • Autonomous vessels are becoming more common in the common, which moves the load from the sea to the air Baltic Sea. The Helsinki–Tallinn tunnel is constructed and also improves the accessibility and services of the ar- • The strategic importance of logistics routes is empha- with the support of Chinese investments, which has an chipelago. Local traffic and logistics are emphasised. sised and the ports of the west coast become stron- impact on passenger traffic in particular. Maritime logis- ger. Passenger traffic reduces substantially especially in tics are increasing, also in the Arctic Sea (the Northern • People seek clean nature in increasing volumes. New the south. Sea Route). housing trends and the transformation of work life increase the popularity of the archipelago also for living. • Internal mobility within EU increases and Finland’s big- • Population concentrates in the biggest cities around the gest coastal cities keep their vitality. The infrastructure Baltic Sea. Climate refugees increase the passenger • The harmful impact of climate change on the weather at of the archipelago gets weaker. flows of the Baltic Sea. the Baltic Sea turns out to be less severe than expected. • Signs of climate change can be observed in the weather • The Baltic Sea has regressed to a difficult patient aseu - • Natural fish populations gain strength and profession- conditions, but the Baltic Sea is still a favourable environ- trophication and oxygen loss aggravate in all mari- al and leisure fishing increase within the boundaries al- ment for many sources of livelihood. time areas. The living conditions of key species and com- lowed by the environment. munities are under threat. • Environmental cooperation with Russia is challeng- • Strict environmental regulation restricts the increase ing, which has a negative impact on the state of the mar- • Aquaculture increases as it becomes more profitable of large-scale aquaculture on the sea and fish farming itime environment. and production focuses on larger and larger units. in closed water systems becomes more common, especially on the ground. • Efforts to reach self-sufficiency in the production of • Tourist interest is focused on the large cities and cultur- protein increase aquaculture and production becomes al heritage of the Baltic Sea. The poor condition of the • The calm and clean environment and the improved ser- multifold, focusing on the Bay of Bothnia and the Archi- maritime environment reduces nature and cultural vice offering attractnew tourists to the Baltic Sea from pelago Sea in particular. tourism in the archipelago. nearby countries. The majority of tourism concerns the Archipelago Sea and nature sites. • Tourism has become more difficult andlocal recreation is emphasised. Tourism potential is aimed towards the Bay of Bothnia. 5 Scenario 1 Dancing with big businesses Scenario 1 Alternative developments of central uncertainties

Maritime area future table

DEVELOPMENT TOURISM AND ATTITUDES AND CONDITION OF CLIMATE SECURITY INTERNATION- ENERGY FISHING AND OF MARITIME RECREATIONAL ENVIRONMEN- THE MARITIME CHANGE IN THE URBANIZATION SITUATION AL TRADE SECTOR AQUACULTURE LOGISTICS USE TAL ACTIONS AREA BALTIC SEA

Uncertain and Baltic Sea of New tourists find Stronger Energy Greener through Baltic Sea Moderate change Sea as a Biggest coastal centralised peace the Baltic Sea cooperation unionformed regulation weakens (climate change breadbasket cities keep their maritime (focal point of archipelago within the EU byinfrastructure (strong role of the (eutrophication has no significant (fish as vitality logistics security politics is (increased (EU sticks projects EU and the state in and oxygen loss effect on the environmentally (ageing population (strategic elsewhere) popularity of together in the (moderate protection) aggravate) weather) friendly mass moves to nearby importance nature tourism) midst of global increase of production, fish cities) of fairways is protectionism) offshore wind as replacement of emphasised) power in restricted meat) areas)

The volume Increased tension Tourism in International End of Profitable and The status stays Significant Changing fish Strong of maritime in the Baltic Sea the Baltic Sea trade combustion and green poor changes population and concentration logistics area becomes more (global markets in electrification (new business (blue-green (effects of climate steady increase on the increases at the (cooperation more difficult the Baltic Sea) (subsidised grid under the terms of algae blooms and change reflected of aquaculture metropolis,port companies’ terms difficult, hybrid (less recreational connection of responsibility) nutrient load) on the Baltic Sea) (large units cities die down (logistics networks influencing) use of the offshore wind optimal, with (big cities expand, of the companies) maritime area) power, farms profitable immigration) further out on the locations) sea)

Reduced Congested Baltic Tourism Ecological Moderate energy Ineffective Improved Radical change Flourishing Increased environmental Sea concentrates in footprint steers transition environmental condition of the (heavy rainfall, leisure fishing popularity of effects of (new security the biggest cities consumption (offshore wind policy maritime area floods, major and strict the archipelago maritime policy situation, around the Baltic (local production power under (large-scale (successful seasonal variation) regulation of (transition of work logistics climate refugees) Sea and consumption, the terms of offshore wind reduction of load aquaculture life, living in many (circular (increased cruise new technological companies, no power projects and recovery of (return of Baltic places, people economy, local tourism, interest in solutions) subsidised grid cannot be started) the sea) herring as food, seek access to production,small the culture) connections, small fish farming on pure nature) volume transport) farms near the the ground in shore) closed water systems)

Developments emphasised in scenario 1

7 Scenario 1 Dancing with big businesses

National description

SOCIETY AND POLITICS MARITIME TRANSPORT Global trade flows become concentrated and the market The development of data communications and auton- liberal EU is deregulating. Global large corporations invest omous technology rapidly affect logistics. Autonomous in Finland in logistics and submarine data centres, among vessels are becoming more common in the Baltic Sea and other things. The interests of companies and cities are the existing fairways are expanded and deepened. People steering the development more than the state and finding and goods move fluently in cities and growth corridors, a shared political will is difficult. In addition to food pro- but on the other hand, transport to sparsely populated duction, maritime areas are being utilised especially as raw areas becomes slower and more expensive. The Helsinki– material for high added value products for the needs of Tallinn tunnel is constructed with the support of Chinese companies. The high demand for resources leads to the ex- investments, which has an impact on passenger traffic in pansion of the mining industry to the Baltic Sea, especially particular. The volume of maritime logistics and vessel size the Archipelago Sea area (e.g., battery technology, phar- increase and new solutions are being developed under maceuticals industry). Significant new innovations in the the companies’ terms (incl. separate logistical networks of exploration of the seabed and the utilisation of nutrients. companies). Traffic in the Arctic Sea also increases steadily Increased environmental radicalism driven by individuals as the ice layer melts, and the logistical importance of the and small groups. Northern Sea Route increases (Chinese interests, Arctic Ocean Railway).

ENERGY CITIES AND POPULATION Environmental politics are ineffective as development is Population concentrates in the biggest cities around driven largely by companies and technology, and we are the Baltic Sea (incl. St. Petersburg, Stockholm, Helsinki, not getting rid of fossil fuels as we wanted. The use of peat Tallinn, Turku) and the significance of other shore cities also increases the marine nutrient load. The demand for reduces. The communities grow in Helsinki and Turku in energy increases in the Baltic Sea due to the electrification particular and storm water flows from cities increase. The of the society (e.g., 5G network, traffic, smart cities), and lack of joint immigration policy on the EU level leads to an large production facilities are favoured. Offshore wind uncontrolled refugee crisis. Climate refugeeship increases power is built by large global corporations as very exten- the passenger flows over the Baltic Sea and requires a sive farms with little regulation (on the open sea), which new kind of cooperation and border operations between results in conflicts with regard to the use of the maritime states. The majority of maritime traffic concerns the Gulf areas. of Finland, around the metropolitan area.

8 Scenario 1 Dancing with big businesses

THE ENVIRONMENT AND CONDITION OF demand for fish is strong and exports of fish products THE MARITIME AREA increase. The increased water temperature hinders aqua- The Baltic Sea has regressed to a difficult patient as eutro- culture in the south and the pressure to move towards phication and oxygen loss aggravate in all maritime areas. the north increases. Aquaculture increases as it becomes The increasing vessel traffic and hydraulic engineering more profitable and companies focus their production on reduce biodiversity, and introduced species become more larger and larger units. Large facilities are located primarily abundant. Nutrients from agricultural emissions leach into according to excellent cultivation conditions (cf. according the Baltic Sea more and more due to abundant raining and to nutrient load). the nutrient load increases. Extreme weather phenomena caused by climate change, such as heavy rainfall and TOURISM AND RECREATIONAL USE coastal area flooding are becoming more common. The Tourist interest is focused on the large cities and cultural increased rain and runoff water reduce the salt content of heritage of the Baltic Sea and tourism focuses near the the Baltic Sea which hinders the living conditions of key cities. Cultural heritage sites are bought from the state to species and communities. The sea level is increasing and private use, which endangers the preservation of cultur- affecting coastal areas especially during storms. Ice layer al heritage (e.g., areas released by the Finnish Defence during the winter is also significantly smaller. Force). Quick access is seen as an advantage of the Baltic Sea cities, and the cultural history of the region interests FISHING AND AQUACULTURE Asian tourists, for example. Due to the increasing effect of Many species of fish are pushed into a corner as the living climate change, also German tourists are moving from the environments change, and the changes in species impact Mediterranean to the easily reachable Baltic Sea desti- fishing. Key species such as bladder wrack disappear and nations. Cruise travel in the Baltic Sea increases strongly the Baltic Sea’s ecosystem shakes. Commercial fishing for (e.g., large hotel ships). The poor condition of the maritime food reduces significantly due to the water quality and environment and privatization of areas (e.g., submarine the fishing of forage fish increases. Typical sweetwater data centres) reduce nature and cultural tourism in the fish species become more common and fishing fleet more archipelago and create prohibited areas. Activism tourism centralised (trawling further away from the shore). Foreign also increases.

9 Scenario 1 Dancing with big businesses

Description of plot 2019-2025 2025-2035 2035-2050

Interests of big companies guide the Raw materials and emission-free Increased pressure on electrified direction and political decision-making energy are sourced from the sea and urbanized societies becomes more difficult under market terms

• Competition between countries drives Europe to re- • Discussion in the society focuses on the promotion of • As people become frustrated with the weak regulation, duce the regulation of industries. Finland also starts economic growth and EU’s environmental policy turn environmental radicalism driven by individuals and deregulation as an atmosphere favouring businesses out to be ineffective with the development highly fo- small groups grows stronger. Large companies and grows stronger. cused on companies and technology. The implementa- cities take on a more powerful role in the meeting of cli- tion of global climate treaties is in trouble. mate targets. • Urbanisation accelerates even more and the Baltic Sea cities, such as St. Petersburg, Stockholm and Helsin- • Very large offshore wind farms are constructed on the • The polluted and congested Baltic Sea is utilised ki, increase uncontrollably. Storm water from the cit- open sea especially by global corporations with little largely as a source of emission-free energy and industri- ies and littering (incl. microplastics, new chemicals) regulation. al raw materials for the digitalised societies. increase. • The tunnel between Helsinki and Tallinn opens for pas- • The minimisation of climate emissions trumps the • China increases its investments on European infrastruc- senger and freight transport, which significantly in- preservation of maritime nature’s diversity and con- ture projects. The construction of Helsinki–Tallinn rail- creases commuting between the cities. The Rail Bal- servation areas are reduced. way tunnel starts with Chinese funding. Building per- tica connection between Warsaw and Tallinn is also • Big companies develop more and more private energy mits have been issued for the planned artificial islands completed. production solutions and logistics networks. Auton- as well. • Ports are merged and some move to foreign omous freight transport also increases in the Baltic Sea • The demand for energy increases in the Baltic Sea due ownership. and new remote control centres are established. to the electrification of the society (e.g., 5G network, • The lack of joint immigration policy on the EU level leads • Traffic in the Arctic Sea increases steadily and the lo- traffic, smart cities), and large production facilities are to an uncontrolled refugee crisis, which also increases gistical importance of the Northern Sea Route increases favoured. The data cabling of the Northern Sea Route the passenger flows crossing the Baltic Sea by sea. (Chinese interests, Arctic Ocean Railway). from the Barents Sea to Asia is completed. • German tourists are also moving from the hot Mediter- • Private maritime areas of companies become more • Utilisation of marine minerals (tellurium, cobalt, manga- ranean to the easily reachable Baltic Sea destinations common (e.g., submarine data centres, test areas of nese, phosphorus) increases, and so does the pressure and cruise travel in the Baltic Sea increases strongly. autonomous vessels), which affects the preservation of to . Global large develop submarine mining activities • The increasing demand for maritime minerals leads to cultural heritage, among other things. corporations invest in Finland in submarine data cen- the expansion of the mining industry to the Baltic • The poor condition of the maritime environment reduc- tres as well. Sea, especially the Archipelago Sea area (e.g., battery es nature and cultural tourism significantly. Increased • The interests of companies and cities are steering the technology, pharmaceuticals industry). tourism brings energy to the biggest cities, but the in- development even more than the state and finding substantially due to frastructure and services in the archipelago weaken. . Citizens shy away • Load of the Baltic Sea increases a shared political will is difficult the increasing vessel traffic and hydraulic engineering, • The ecosystem of the Baltic Sea changes significantly from the control measures aimed at curbing climate which is reflected in introduced species become more and many key species, such as bladder wrack disappear. change and the emissions of the society aren’t reduced abundant, among other things. The increased rain and The Baltic Sea changes into sufficiently. a warm and eutrophied runoff waterreduce the salt content of the Baltic Sea sweet water basin. • Extreme weather phenomena caused by climate and the nutrient load increases. produced for food decreas- change, such as heavy rainfall and coastal area flooding • Demand for domestic fish • The poor water quality and strong storms es and imported fish is eaten almost solely in Finland. gain strength in the Baltic Sea area. Attitudes towards slow down and the warming of the conservation of the marine environment are the development of aquaculture indif- the sea moves the focal area of fish farming further to ferent and cooperation between countries sporadic. the north. Commercial fishing for food reduces sig- • With increased deregulation, large aquaculture facil- nificantly and the fishing of forage fish increases even ities are planned for the northern maritime areas in further. particular.

10 Scenario 1 National level

Impacts on MSP’s objectives

BLUE GROWTH • The exploitation of natural resources is powerful and short-sighted. Operations are focused on large units and focal areas, such as extensive wind power areas, tourism hotspots and busy cruise and logistics routes. • Industries become more polarized and concentrates: fish farming increases, for example, but the fishing culture withers; tourism and recreational opportunities are focused on certain areas and wealthy people. Regions become polarized as winners and losers in terms of trade and industry. • Conflicts emerge between sectors with increased activity and deregulation. On the other hand, there are opportunities for synergy benefits between operators. Circular economy and cleantech innovations create opportunities. • Ecosystem services deteriorate, which reduces the opportunities of blue economy, e.g., the negative impact of the deteriorated state of the sea on fish farming, impact of environmental deterioration on tourism.

STATE OF ENVIRONMENT • The ecological state of the marine environment is disturbed and water quality decreases, oxygen loss areas increase, diversity decreases. • Natural values may strengthen in the outlying areas with the reduced use. • The archipelago and outlying areas become deserted, which endangers to the cultural environment and heritage of the areas. • The powerful development of sea transport and the increased tourism increase carbon dioxide emissions to air. • Large-scale operations allow maximal raw materials efficiency. Citizens’ movements may become active as the condition of the environment deteriorates, putting pressure on the operation of big businesses. It is possible that big corporations start invest- ing on sustainable operating methods and technology, which will promote the improvement of the environment.

PEOPLE’S WELL-BEING AND PARTICIPATION • Benefits from the natural resources are steered to big businesses at the expense of the local environment and local operators. • Business directedness generates jobs on the hotspot areas, whereas services disappear from the archipelago and outlying Indicative opportunities of scenario 1 identified based on the work- areas and living conditions deteriorate. shops with regard to the state of the environment, blue growth and • Everyman’s rights deteriorate due to privatization. people’s well-being and participation. 11 Scenario 1 The Gulf of Finland

Scenario 1 Description of the area Maritime transport & industry one-hour rail Helsinki - St. Petersburg

State of the marine Energy Aquaculture environment

Maritime transport and industry

The Helsinki - Tallinn Energy tunnel

Electrical cable Tourism and Tourism & recreation recreation Fishing

Fishing

Illustration of scenario 1 on the map Aquaculture ENERGY STATE OF THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT TOURISM AND RECREATIONAL USE Wind power is difficult to develop in the Gulf of Finland due The state of the maritime area clearly collapses in the Gulf The negative effects of climate change elsewhere bring to restrictions of the Finnish Defence Force, inhabitation of Finland: the salt content decreases, species decrease, tourists to Finland. The large tourist volumes to the Gulf and migratory paths of birds. Offshore wind farms are eutrophication accelerates and alien species become of Finland cause a burden to the maritime environment, mostly placed in the western parts of the Gulf of Finland more common. Especially the growth of the capital region and the region has to balance between the increased in front of Helsinki, Porkkalanniemi and Hanko, although (traffic, erosion, littering etc.) and the increase in hazard- tourism and sustainability. The negative impact of large companies are not willing to invest on wind power in such ous substances with the increased maritime traffic cause a cruise ships are reflected on the nature and the submarine restricted conditions. Import of energy from Russia is burden to the Gulf of Finland. Agricultural load is particu- cultural heritage. The cities of the Gulf of Finland and the emphasised and new investments are made on the Loviisa larly important in the eastern Gulf of Finland (catchment nearby archipelago benefit from the increased cruise trav- power station. basins). The growth of St. Petersburg increases challenges el, and one-day stops in Finland energise the companies of related to waste water in the Baltic Sea. Water pollution the region. Industrial tourism attracts foreign tourists in MARITIME TRANSPORT from forestry and the use of peat also increases in the Gulf Loviisa and Kotka. Recreational use of the sea has dimin- The growth of maritime transport causes the need to build of Finland. ished in the Gulf of Finland due to the degeneration of the additional port infrastructure (especially for passenger ecosystem. The privatisation of maritime areas weakens traffic) and to obtain new areas of expansion for ports. FISHING AND AQUACULTURE everyman’s rights and makes recreational use and private Accident risks on the Gulf of Finland increase with the in- Fish species are in poor condition due to the poor state boating more difficult. Massive cruise travel may also creasing maritime traffic (increased risk of oil and chemical of the maritime area, which weakens the possibilities for reduce recreational use if the cruise ships cause consider- accident). Autonomous vessels also create a new kind of fishing in the area. Various alien species may be found in able waste water discharges. safety threat to the busy Gulf of Finland. The Helsinki–Tal- the Gulf of Finland due to the increased maritime traf- linn tunnel and Rail Baltica (Warsaw to Tallinn) increase fic. Leisure fishing increases slightly especially in front CULTURAL HERITAGE passenger traffic. Traffic integration also possibly contains of Hanko and Kotka, but the poor condition of the sea The depopulation of the archipelago endangers built her- a one-hour rail connection to St. Petersburg and an electri- reduces the popularity of fishing. Foreign demand for fish itage. Cultural history sites (incl. war history) may become cal cable under the Gulf of Finland. Commuting moves to is strong, which is reflected in the increase of aquaculture sites of major interest for tourists, and new technolo- the faster train connection and some work-related travel in the area. Aquaculture facilities are set up in the most gies are used to model cultural heritage into the virtual and leisure travel continue on ships, which keeps the ship profitable areas of the Gulf of Finland, in front of Porvoo, environment. traffic volumes close to the current level. The volume of for example. Due to the development of technology, blue touring cruise ships has increased. mussel and algae are farmed for use in the cosmetics and pharmaceutical industries, among other things. 12 Scenario 1 The Gulf of Finland

Impacts of scenario 1

SECTORS SECTORS MSP’S OBJECTIVES

Fishing and Tourism, recreation Maritime transport Good condition of the People’s well-being IMPACTS Energy Blue growth aquaculture and cultural heritage and industry sea and participation

• Increased maritime • Fishing culture, com- • The deterioration of • Increased accident • The exploitation • Increased activities • Diminished partici- traffic makes increas- petence and small- the environment re- risks (in front of Kot- of natural resourc- and reduced regula- pation opportunities ing wind power dif- scale coastal fishing duces the attraction ka, for instance). es is powerful and tion result in conflicts (foreign decision-mak- ficult in the Gulf of diminish. of tourism. • Impact of the devel- short-sighted, which between sectors. ing and lack of local Finland. • Increased tourism opment of the North- leads to a disruption • The tunnel to Tallinn knowledge). • Conflicts between wears out the na- ern Sea Route for the of the ecological sta- may weaken the har- • Polarisation of the re- wind power projects ture and cultural Gulf of Finland. tus and a reduction of bours in the region gion and weakening water quality. and defence. environments. • Emissions of the and increase compe- of services at the mar- • Energy production • Cruise tourism does mining industry • The centralisation of tition in the Gulf of gins of the region. (offshore wind power) not generate income pose a risk to the operations increas- Finland. • Reduced living satis- moves away from the for local operators. environment. es the pressure on the • Financial benefits are faction and attraction. RISKS environment in the fo- biggest areas of con- • Centralisation of tour- • The tunnel to Tallinn lost from the region. • Cultural sumption just like nu- cal areas (esp. Helsin- ism decreases the ver- may make it more ki and Kotka regions). impoverishment. clear power (Helsinki satility and local na- difficult to operate metropolitan area). ture of the tourism the harbours in the • Risk of oil accidents trade. region. increases in front of Kotka, for instance. • Privatisation of infrastructure and har- • Release of sediment- bours poses a risk. ed harmful substances being released into the sea poses a risk.

• Big capital makes it • Increased self-suffi- • Well-maintained, at- • Well-maintained, at- • With the centrali- • Centralisation of ac- • New jobs especial- possible to build in ciency and opportu- tractive cultural cen- tractive cultural cen- sation of activities, tivities strengthens ly e.g. in the Kotka re- the exclusive econom- nities for success for tres: Kotka-Hamina, tres: Kotka-Hamina, the reduced use of businesses especial- gion in addition to the ic zone. Possibility to specialised compa- Porvoo and Hanko, Porvoo and Hanko, the marginal areas ly in the Helsinki and capital area. include expensive ra- nies. Blue economy counterbalancing the counterbalancing the may lead to an im- Kotka regions. The • Improved connec- dar compensation. innovations. big cities of the Bal- big cities of the Bal- provement of the small towns of the tions from Finland to OPPORTUNI- tic Sea. tic Sea. environment. Gulf of Finland benefit Europe. TIES • Improved raw materi- from increased cruise al efficiency. tourism. • Globalisation of en- • New commercial vironmental activism forms of use for blue- creates pressure for green algae. sustainable operating • Lease and sales in- methods. come for water body owners.

Impacts of scenario 1 identified in the workshops for the Gulf of Finland region.

13 Scenario 1 The Archipelago Sea and southern Sea of Bothnia

Description of the area

ENERGY MARITIME TRANSPORT AND INDUSTRY With the onshore wind power capacity fully utilised and Both autonomous and traditional vessels are seen in the Maritime transport & industry increased energy prices, there is more interest towards maritime area, which increases the monitoring of sea offshore wind power. Offshore wind power is construct- transport. The Archipelago Sea area benefits from new ed to the Archipelago Sea and the southern part of the remote control centres as the area has extensive com- Sea of Bothnia, but less attention is paid to conservation. petence and education in the field of shipping. On the The shallow depth is beneficial for the construction of other hand, the region is challenging for automated sea offshore wind power. In the Sea of Bothnia, offshore wind transport. Maritime industry and new maritime transport State of the marine Energy power is placed in front of Pori and Rauma and loosely solutions generate lots of vitality in the area, and with environment from Uusikaupunki to Pori, perhaps also Merikarvia. More university education in the field, the area becomes an and more land is owned by big corporations which, in this internationally renowned centre of blue technology and region, may mean that maritime industry companies are modern shipping. The reduction of the ice layer increas- interested in acquiring strips of land on the shore. es the number of vessels moving in the area, and in the future, vessels will be able to operate without ice classi- Scenario 1 fication and with smaller engines, thereby causing less Tourism & Fishing emissions. The increased sea traffic also increases the risk recreation of accident in the archipelago. Ports are merged and some move to foreign ownership.

STATE OF THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT Climate change causes significant effects on the area. Dry Aquaculture seasons as well as runoff flows during the rainy season increase. The effect of agriculture on the archipelago increases. The destruction of the marine environment continues and the condition of the seafloor deteriorates in particular. The seafloor is full of filamentous algae and most of the floor is dead. TOURISM AND RECREATIONAL USE (INCL. CULTURAL HERITAGE) FISHING AND AQUACULTURE The preservation of the archipelago’s cultural heritage The possible dismantling of the quota-based regulation and traditional means of livelihood are at risk. Tourists system under the companies’ terms threatens the sustain- choose large cruises which result in little benefit to the able fishing of fish populations. The utilisation of fish stock ports or tourism businesses of the archipelago. Mass is controlled by the perspective of companies’ long-term tourism focuses on a couple of easy-to-reach targets (such profit maximisation. Logistics develop and production as Örö and Utö). In addition, “artificial” tourist attractions volumes increase driven by big companies, which allows are created. The other forms of use of the maritime area the launching of new fish-based products through local restrict tourism. Permanent habitation of the archipelago university cooperation. The competence of the universities reduces and further weakens the service offering. On the Aquaculture of Turku support the development of high added-value other hand, the vitality and attractiveness of cities in the Maritime transport products (such as using algae in biofuels). Aquaculture Baltic Sea area increases, which brings opportunities to and industry potential is already largely in use in the Archipelago Sea the archipelago near Turku, among other things. Other Energy and the focus moves to southern Sea of Bothnia and large cities are also interesting in terms of cultural heritage Tourism and recreation farming units. The aquaculture facilities in the area attract (e.g., Rauma), but this requires good connections either

Fishing foreign investors. From the perspective of livelihoods, via the cruise or over land. Activism tourism, on the other the significance of the shore reduces, which weakens the hand, brings people to the archipelago for various kinds of Illustration of scenario 1 on the map regional economy. nature management tasks. 14 Scenario 1 The Archipelago Sea and southern Sea of Bothnia

Impacts of scenario 1 SECTORS SECTORS MSP’S OBJECTIVES

Fishing and Tourism, recreation Maritime transport Good condition of the People’s well-being IMPACTS Energy Blue growth aquaculture and cultural heritage and industry sea and participation

• The most optimal off- • Reduced coast- • The depopulation of • Risk of major acci- • Environment and nat- • The poor condition of • The poor condition shore wind power al fishing, overfish- the archipelago en- dents, especially in ural protection fall the maritime environ- of the sea reduces projects are not creat- ing, loss of small local dangers built heri- terms of automated behind economic ment reduces oppor- well-being and drives ed without regulation processors. tage and traditional transport with larger growth. tunities for livelihood. archipelago residents of the authorities. • Increased risks in big biotopes. vessels. • Global operators have • Lack of regulation re- away. • Privatised areas units as well; an en- • Natural values may • Excavation in the no connection to the duces opportunities • Periods of blue-green controlled by big vironmental accident become second- sea (e.g. of sea sand) local environment or for operation. algae may become businesses. may cause wide-rang- ary in areas of mass without appropriate communities. Things • New industries, such more common, reduc- ing effects. tourism. regulation leads to are not seen local- as mining, get into ing the opportunities • Increased cultivation • Diminished oppor- loss of shallows and ly and the environ- conflict with tradition- for recreational use of is a risk to the water tunities for local their species. mental impacts are al, growing industries the sea. ignored. RISKS quality and diversity recreation. • Docks and boat sales such as fishing and • Privatisation of areas of the Sea of Bothnia. may decrease if the • In large-scale produc- aquaculture. restricts operations, • The sea is in such maritime areas are tion, the risks are also • Sustainable growth is such as tourism, rec- poor condition that in poor condition/ high in the event of an not possible; the sea reation etc. fish cultivation de- privatised. accident. cannot sustain even • Over-emphasis on the clines. The spawning • Reduced significance the current activities. economy may lead to of fish also becomes of EIA leads to risks. reduced safety. more difficult. • Polarisation of areas: good areas for the rich, less opportunities for recreation for normal people. • Development of • High volumes allow • Development of tour- • Mergers of harbours, • Large capital allows • With climate change, • Employment effects the sector and new advanced technology ism for cities in Sa- economic growth, the development of the north will be- of big businesses. innovation. and an environmen- takunta (Rauma, Pori, employment, net- more ecological pro- come a global food • Pressure on big busi- tally sustainable level, Yyteri). work impacts of the duction methods. resource. nesses to create sus- and the side streams • Possibility to develop cluster. • Natural values are re- • Some economic sec- tainable operating generate high vol- an international ring tained in the marginal tors may grow sus- methods. umes for utilisation. route: the Sea of Both- regions. tainably, e.g. ship- OPPORTUNI- • Engaging residents • Purer protein pro- nia, the Archipelago ping with the help of TIES in economic develop- duction is possible in Sea, Åland, Sweden. automation. ment projects through large units. • Cleantech and circu- genuine participation lar economy operat- by means of the social ing models. sustainability actions • Utilisation of algae of companies. has potential (requires further development).

Impacts of scenario 1 identified in the workshops for the Archipelago Sea and southern Sea of Bothnia 15 Scenario 1 Northern Sea of Bothnia, the Kvarken and the bay of Bothnia

Description of the area Maritime transport & industry

Scenario 1 STATE OF THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT Many problems of the Baltic Sea aggravate and the sea State of gets sweeter. Floods are a major problem in the northern the marine Energy maritime areas. The increased rainfall also reduces the environment Baltic Sea’s salt concentration and increases the runoff of nutrients from the ground. The shallow maritime areas in the north suffer the most when the condition of the sea deteriorates.

Tourism & FISHING AND AQUACULTURE recreation Fishing Commercial fishing for food ends or changes into fishing of forage fish, which increases significantly. The removal of migration barriers is cancelled and migratory fish populations decrease even further. Typical sweet water fish species become more common (vendace, pike, pike-perch,

Aquaculture bass) and the fishing of vendace increases in particular; ENERGY vendace is trawled further away from the shore. Open sea

The technically and economically easiest offshore sites are fishing focuses on the Kvarken. Leisure fishing decreases Vaasa - Uumaja utilised for energy production (the closest available space due to the deterioration of the sea and loss of skills. The ”tunnel” bridge near the shore in shallow areas). Offshore wind power in- increased water temperature hinders aquaculture in the creases in front of Kemi-Tornio and Raahe, Pietarsaari and south and the pressure to move towards the north increas- Kaskinen in particular. Industrial greenwashing projects es. The placement of aquaculture facilities is determined with a climate perspective are constructed near existing based on profitability and production focuses in the front industrial and port infrastructure. Other environmental of Kaskinen/Kristiinankaupunki near offshore wind farms, Aquaculture values and comprehensive coordination are neglected in in front of Pietarsaari and most powerfully to the Bay of the placement of industry. Bothnia, north of Hailuoto. The grey seal population grows Energy in the north, making coastal fishing more difficult. Tourism and MARITIME TRANSPORT recreation

Vessel traffic between states also increases in the north- TOURISM AND RECREATIONAL USE Fishing ern maritime area and the Vaasa–Uumaja connection is Tourism focuses on the largest cities (Oulu and Vaasa). Ma- developed further. The transport of goods is transferred rine military and cultural sites are taken into tourism use. nationally to more loosely populated regions. The develop- International tourists take over the maritime sites, even at ment of the area proceeds under the terms of big busi- the expense of recreational use by residents. “Arctic Sea” Illustration of scenario 1 on the map nesses, and the interests forest industry, for example, are gains popularity as an incentive travel destination and strongly reflected in area planning. Some of the northern supporter of positive image of big corporations. Seals are MARITIME INDUSTRY AND MINERALS ports have been sold to foreign ownership and large port marketed as an attraction to lucrative hunting tourism. The extraction of sand from the sea increases in the Bay of entities are doing well. The operation of small ports gets Bothnia as the minerals industry expands to the sea. Port more difficult and port mergers take place in the area. CULTURAL HERITAGE operations and maritime industry need more and more The volume of touring cruisers increases and some also Cultural history sites which can be reached easily become space, and they cannot focus solely on southern cities or stop for a day in the northern ports. Autonomous ship- a major interest of tourists, which leads to endangering near residential areas. More sparsely populated areas may ping increases significantly in the Bay of Bothnia (after the them without strict guidance. Use of the Bay of Bothnia also receive investments. With the foreign investments, introduction of test areas) and some routes are operated national park increases. Even Unesco sites may be endan- also profits leach abroad, which causes problems to the with autonomous vessels. gered due to increased industry and tourism. economy with the disappearance of tax base. 16 Scenario 1 Northern Sea of Bothnia, the Kvarken and the bay of Bothnia

Impacts of scenario 1

SECTORS SECTORS MSP’S OBJECTIVES

Fishing and Tourism, recreation Maritime transport Good condition of the People’s well-being IMPACTS Energy Blue growth aquaculture and cultural heritage and industry sea and participation

• Excess production • Excess growth puts • Small operators get in • Melting of the North- • The state of the mar- • Sustainability-based • Degradation of liveli- may cause problems. pressure on the trouble. ern Sea Route moves itime environment economy is not real- hoods in the remote • The Baltic Sea as a environment. • Excessive utilisation maritime traffic away and water quality will ised. The use of nat- areas. source of energy, on • Profits of compa- and productisation of from Bay of Bothnia decrease significant- ural resources is • The poor state of the the operator’s terms, nies in foreign owner- the cultural heritage. harbours. ly: increased oxygen unsustainable. maritime environ- at the environment’s ship move abroad at • Negative effects of loss areas, reduced • The poor state of the ment reduces peo- • Increased maritime diversity. expense. the environment’s ex- transport and con- the utilisation of sea sea restricts liveli- ple’s well-being. • Energy production pense with no ben- struction of wind pow- sand on the marine • The poor state of the hoods (e.g. aquacul- • Recreational use is may even threaten de- efits for the local er are a risk to cultural habitat. maritime environ- ture, fishing, tourism). decreased due to RISKS fence operations. economy. heritage. ment is reflected in • Private areas restrict green-blue algae, for ecosystem services operations. example. and livelihoods, e.g. the collapse of fish • Weak regulation, de- populations. creased participation. • Everyman’s rights are at risk. • Impacts of climate refugees.

• General good devel- • A global marketplace. • Large tourism vol- • New industrial invest- • Development of • Expansion of commut- • Strengthening of busi- opment of energy. • Development of more umes create possibili- ments will promote environmental er area (Vaasa-Uuma- nesses in the Oulu • Opportunities sustainable fish farm- ties for the necessary employment and live- innovations. ja) and competence region. of decentralised ing techniques infrastructure. lihood in the regions. • Increased aware- will increase. • Rise of citizens’ production • Centralisation of tour- ness of environmen- • Circular economy activism. OPPORTUNI- ism saves the margin- tal issues among opportunities. • Sense of commu- TIES al regions. consumers. • Synergies between nity may arise to • “Industrial tourism” • Observing environ- different operators. counterbalance big (interest towards in- mental values may • The poor state of the businesses. dustrial facilities) will create a compet- sea may force new • Economic growth may increase. itive edge for big innovation. create well-being (at businesses. least temporarily).

Impacts of scenario 1 identified in the workshops for the Northern Sea of Bothnia, the Kvarken and the bay of Bothnia

17 Scenario 2 Profitability under the environment’s terms Scenario 2 Alternative developments of central uncertainties

Maritime area future table

Reduced Congested Baltic Tourism Ecological Moderate energy Ineffective Improved Radical change Flourishing Increased environmental Sea concentrates in footprint steers transition environmental condition of the (heavy rainfall, leisure fishing popularity of the effects of (new security the biggest cities consumption (offshore wind policy maritime area floods, major and strict archipelago maritime policy situation, around the Baltic (local production power under (large-scale (successful seasonal variation) regulation of (transition of work logistics climate refugees) Sea and consumption, the terms of offshore wind reduction of load aquaculture life, living in many (circular (increased cruise new technological companies, no power projects and recovery of (return of Baltic places, people economy, local tourism, interest in solutions) subsidised grid cannot be started) the sea) herring as food, seek access to production,small the culture) connections, small fish farming on the pure nature) volume transport) farms near the ground in closed shore) water systems)

Developments emphasised in scenario 2

19 Scenario 2 Profitability under the environment’s terms

National description SOCIETY AND POLITICS MARITIME TRANSPORT Concern over the environment is increasing and climate The harmful impacts of maritime logistics on the envi- issues become a central focus of politics. The state partic- ronment reduce as a result of improved environmental ipates actively in different methods of conservation, and awareness, technological development, cleaner fuels, local private persons, municipalities, parishes and companies production and circular economy solutions. Vessel traffic also become active in natural conservation. Consumers are increasingly switches to fuel cells and nuclear power. Small more and more environmentally aware and the ecological volume transport becomes more and more common, footstep steers consumption (e.g., cruise compensations). which moves the load from the sea to the air and also People’s personal choices also strongly guide companies improves the accessibility and services of the archipelago. towards providing sustainable solutions. New business Technological development, such as industrial scale 3D models are searched under the terms of sustainability, and printing and new circular economy solutions improve ac- Finland is a forerunner in the development of sustainable cess to resources, but also increase the transport of waste technology. Current cleantech and biotechnology clusters on the sea. Local traffic and logistics are emphasised. gain strength (e.g. algae farming). The security status on the Baltic Sea is stable as the attention of superpowers is focused elsewhere.

ENERGY CITIES AND POPULATION Forms of renewable energy production (incl. solar and Urbanization continues, but people seek clean nature in wind power) become significantly more common and increasing volumes. New housing trends (such as living in emission-free forms of energy become cheaper. As storage several places, compact small houses, cottages for round-the- technology improves, the production of energy becomes year use) and the transformation of work life (remote work decentralized, and the improved storage capacity also etc.) increase the popularity of the archipelago also for living. increases the demand for wind power. The search for Infrastructure, traffic connections and services improve in the renewable forms of energy is strong by means of environ- archipelago and pedestrian and bicycle traffic increases. mental policy and the state supports the connection of offshore wind power to the grid (e.g., Denmark). Due to the investment environment favourable to offshore wind power, the stabile security situation and the development of technology, production is profitable also further from the shore. The combination of wind power and other forms of energy gives integration benefits with the increasing electric maritime transport, for example. Wind power farms also become more and more tourist attractions.

20 Scenario 2 Profitability under the environment’s terms

THE ENVIRONMENT AND CONDITION OF boundaries allowed by the environment in the archipelago THE MARITIME AREA and the Bay of Bothnia in particular. Strict environmental The state of the Baltic Sea is seen as an international regulation restricts the increase of large-scale aquaculture environmental issue, and the total benefits of a clean on the sea and fish farming in closed water systems be- sea are mainly recognized in all the Baltic Sea countries. comes more common, especially on the ground. The com- Conservation measures are promoted significantly, and bined production level of aquaculture remains unchanged, shared monitoring systems with impact are constructed. focusing on the open sea where it causes the least harm The harmful impact of climate change on the weather at to the marine environment. Aquaculture is increasingly the Baltic Sea also turns out to be less severe than expect- located by wind power parks in the open sea. ed. Agricultural nutrient load and other activities causing load on the ground reduce (incl. changes in eating habits, TOURISM AND RECREATIONAL USE stricter water protection in the agriculture, improved puri- The calm and clean environment and the service packages fication of municipal sewage, circular economy solutions), offered by archipelago residents in digital platforms at- which promotes the improvement of the maritime area’s tract new tourists to the Baltic Sea from nearby countries condition. Eutrophication is managed and blue-green algae (incl. cultural and nature tourism). The culture of shared are no longer an issue every summer. Increased awareness use blooms in the capital region in particular where digital also reduces the littering of the Baltic Sea. The processing peer-to-peer services have become a part of daily life (e.g., of sewage of (passenger) vessels also improvesand the skipperi.com and doerz.com). With the increased climate spreading of alien species is brought under control. awareness, Finns also start to favour tourism in nearby regions which increases the popularity of the archipelago FISHING AND AQUACULTURE as a recreational area. Local culture and nature tourism Natural fish populations gain strength and professional services are appreciated and also traditional trades gain and leisure fishing increase within the boundaries allowed strength. As tourism businesses increase, the majority of by the environment when the demand for wild fish increas- tourism concerns the Archipelago Sea and nature sites. es. The increased consumption of natural fish and fishing, on the other hand, remove nutrients which have already ended up in the Baltic Sea. The popularity of Baltic herring in food also increases when toxicity levels decrease and cy- prinid populations diminish. The vitality of the archipelago guarantees good opportunities for fishing entrepreneurs, but also private and coastal fishing increase within the

21 Scenario 2 Profitability under the environment’s terms

Description of the plot 2019-2025 2025-2035 2035-2050

Effects on the environment become the Conservation actions and technological Decentralized housing, focus of politics and investments are development promote the improve- production and tourism increase made on circular economy ment of the state of the Baltic Sea pressure in the archipelago

• Climate anxiety and concern for the environment in- • The state of the Baltic Sea is seen as an internation- • Agricultural nutrient load and other activities caus- crease and more and more people are willing to reduce al environmental issue, and the total benefits of a clean ing load on the ground reduce (incl. changes in eating their carbon footprint. Climate issues also become the sea are recognized by most of the Baltic Sea countries. habits, improved purification of municipal sewage, cir- focus of politics and regulation increases. Conservation measures are promoted significantly and cular economy solutions), and the eutrophication of the shared monitoring systems are constructed. Baltic Sea is brought under control. • Clean forms of energy production become even cheaper and renewable energy is also promoted by • Several Baltic Sea countries, such as Denmark, Swe- • Harmful environmental impacts of the industry are means of strong environmental politics. den and Finland, reach carbon neutrality already in the decreased substantially by increased regulation, local 2030s as a result of significant increase in emission-free production and introduction of business models based • The state introduces a subsidy for connecting off- energy production and a radical change in consumer on circular economy. have been shore wind power to the grid (e.g., Denmark). The de- Conservation areas velopment of electric traffic (incl. infrastructure) is also behaviour. expanded and environmental requirements tightened significantly. strongly subsidised. • As storage technology improves, the production of en- • Consumer’s demand for environmentally friendly solu- ergy becomes decentralized, and the improved storage • Maintaining a good state of the marine environment capacity also increases the demand for wind power. (cf. central tions also strongly guides companies towards provid- steers the development of operations treatment plants established and centralised port oper- ing sustainable solutions. Different communities, re- • Thanks to the investment environment favourable to gions, associations and companies become active in offshore wind power and the development of (turbine) ations). Operations concerning the seafloor harmful to nature conservation (incl. the Baltic Sea). technology, the profitability of offshore wind power im- the environment are focused near urban areas and by proves significantly and the fairways. • Personal eating habits are changed successfully and the several new wind power farms Floating wind and solar power • Renewable sources of energy (incl. solar energy, geo- demand for domestic natural fish increases also due are built on the open sea. to the higher taxation of meat. The compensation of stations are also developed. thermal heat, wave energy) are utilised extensively and consumption becomes increasingly popular also from • The price of electricity falls with the substantial increase the cost competitiveness of offshore wind power sur- passes that of nuclear power. With the development of the perspective of the conservation of the Baltic Sea. in offshore wind power and (sea)traffic becomes elec- The electrification of traffic also reaches to waters energy storage technology, wind power farms are also • The poor condition of the Baltic Sea is discussed trical. and can be charged in the archipelago marinas. used for the storage of energy. more and more as the blooming blue-green algae in- e-boats related to hous- creases and hot summers become more common. A • Small volume transport also increases substantially, • Lifestyles and consumption patterns major oil or chemical accident also increases awareness which moves the load from the sea to the air and also im- ing, recreation, transport and food have undergone a of the state of the sea. proves the accessibility and services of the archipelago. profound change. Daily life is characterised by the shar- Tourism in the nearby regions becomes more popular. ing economy, digital platforms and shared use. • Investments in bio and circular economy as well as (incl. dual municipal residency) cleantech research and development increase substan- • New housing trends and the transformation of work life • Living in several places has become clearly more popular and the archipelago tially. Local production (such as 3D printing) gains pop- increase the popularity of the archipelago also for has round-the-year service provision and residents. ularity due to the focus on resource efficiency and new living. • The improved infrastructure also allows innovations are created to replace harmful materials. • Natural fish populations gain strength and profession- commuting (cf. Stockholm) and emission-free • Long-distance travel loses popularity due to the high- al and leisure fishing increase. The increased fishing of from the archipelago er taxation of flight travel and the slowdown of econom- natural fish removes nutrients which have already ended passenger and minor transport increase. Load caused ic growth, and domestic tourism destinations are devel- up in the Baltic Sea. by tourism, partly uncontrolled, increases in the archipelago in particular. oped widely. • Strict environmental regulation restricts the increase of • Fish is mostly grown in on the large-scale aquaculture on the sea and fish farming in closed system facilities ground. closed water systems becomes more common as the availability of energy improves. 22 Scenario 2 National level

Impacts on MSP’s objectives

BLUE GROWTH • Local businesses gain strength with increased regional and nature tourism the strengthening of local fishing trades, for example. • The opportunities for blue growth are good in many sectors. The opportunity to be a forerunner in cleantech solutions and export competence. • The construction of solar and wind power projects increases in line with the political will and environmental awareness. Some decentralisation can be observed in energy production but, on the other hand, also large facilities are built. Self-sufficiency in energy production may increase. • Small-scale trades may not necessarily stay viable. • The operation of the industry and ports as well as big companies may decline.

STATE OF THE ENVIRONMENT • The negative effects on the environment generally decrease on a large scale with, for example, the electrification of transport and the reduction of ship emissions and the reduced carbon footprint of energy production. The state of the sea improves in general. • Harmful environmental effects may increase locally as a result of erosion of the nature due to the extensive decentralisation of operations, such as that related to increased living and tourism in the archipelago and increased local traffic. Wind power stations also harm the coastal ecosystems, cultural environment and sceneries.

PEOPLE’S WELL-BEING AND PARTICIPATION • The role of local operations and operators strengthens. • The archipelago gains vitality as a result of the strengthening of local livelihoods and the increased living in the archipelago and development of services made possible by digitalisation. The communal archipelago culture grows stronger, which in turn supports the preservation of cultural environments. • Increased self-sufficiency and local and small production Indicative opportunities of scenario 2 identified based on the work- have a positive effect on people’s well-being. shops with regard to the state of the environment, blue growth and people’s well-being and participation.

23 Scenario 2 The Gulf of Finland

Maritime transport & industry Description of the area

Scenario 2 State of the marine Energy environment

Russian boats to Small vessel route archipelago to St. Petersburg Tourism & recreation Fishing Aquaculture

Maritime transport and industry

Energy

Air transport / Aquaculture Logistic center Tourism Electrical cable and recreation

Fishing in particular, whereas conditions are favourable for algae farming throughout the Gulf of Finland. Illustration of scenario 2 on the map TOURISM AND RECREATIONAL USE ENERGY STATE OF THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT The archipelago of the Gulf of Finland is still quiet and, on Positive political guidance (e.g., subsidies grid connections, Natural fish populations are doing well and the harmful the other hand, urbane conditions combine with the archi- favourable taxation) allow the rapid development of wind spreading of alien species has been prevented. Nutrient pelago in Kotka, Hanko and Helsinki which together form power. Wind power is integrated with other energy pro- load from the ground has been reduced successfully, an even tourism and recreational zone on the entire shore duction in the area to support the electrification of mari- eutrophication is under control and algae is only observed of the Gulf of Finland. Digital platforms and shared use time transport. In addition to the western Gulf of Finland, moderately in the summer. New circular economy systems allow the growth of tourism and recreation in the Gulf of offshore wind power is also constructed in front of Porvoo. are created in the Gulf of Finland area supported by the Finland in particular due to the adequate residential base With the development of energy storage technology, good infrastructure in the area. (such as skipper.com, doerz.com, bout.com). New forms of wind power farms are also used for the storage of energy tourism, such as submarine nature trails, are introduced. (so-called modern grain silos). The increased electrical FISHING AND AQUACULTURE Living in two places (and dual municipal residency) is sea transport creates a need for maritime charging points Fish populations are doing well as a result of the improved emphasized especially in the Gulf of Finland. Digitalisation alongside the fairways. Multi-use wind parks are an attrac- state of the marine environment. The fragmentation of and the transition of working life promote the popularity tion symbolising the blue technology leap. Small nuclear private water bodies, on the other hand, makes the situ- of remote work, and the improved infrastructure allows power plants become more popular and the decentralized ation more difficult for fishing enterprises. Recreational commuting from the archipelago (cf. Stockholm). energy production creates new types of accident risks in fishing gains popularity as people become interested in the the area. archipelago, and the demolition of water power stations in CULTURAL HERITAGE the rivers further promotes fishing tourism. The Porkka- A new rise of archipelago culture: Interest towards tradi- MARITIME TRANSPORT lanniemi and Hanko territorial waters attract fishers. The tional fishing, hunting and handicrafts methods increases, The increase of small transport causes logistical challenges stricter environmental regulation hinders aquaculture, and these skills are kept alive and developed more and in the densely populated Gulf of Finland area. Air transport but the stopping of the eutrophication development may more. This helps the preservation of built heritage through creates new kinds of issues related to safety and control. enable aquaculture, but within the carrying capacity of the use (sustainable use and repair). The value of cultural The development of circular economy reduces vessel environment. The supply of fish farmed domestically still heritage sites and locally produced food, for example, transport volumes, but does not replace maritime trans- does not match the demand and lots of fish is imported increases. As a counterforce to urbanization, trends steer port. New boating routes are created in the eastern parts from other countries. The cultivation of blue mussels is people back to the nature, increasing the understanding of of the Gulf of Finland. focused on western Gulf of Finland, in the front of Hanko natural values. 24 Scenario 2 The Gulf of Finland

Impacts of scenario 2

SECTORS MSP’S OBJECTIVES

Fishing and Tourism, recreation Maritime transport Good condition of People’s well-being IMPACTS Energy Blue growth aquaculture and cultural heritage and industry the sea and participation

• Issues with birds may • Small-scale opera- • The nature will suffer • Increased local traffic • Increased population • Economic growth • Reduced privacy and restrict the place- tions may not be ef- unless nature tour- may put pressure on on the archipelago may not be infinite peace due to e.g. in- ment of very large ficient in terms of ism is controlled. the environment in threatens the nature. due to the regulation creased traffic and wind power parks in resources. • The development of the archipelago. • Increased maritime of quality properties. tourism. the Gulf of Finland. tourism is difficult • The role of harbours traffic also increases • The fragmented own- RISKS due to low volumes. may diminish if ves- the risk of accidents. ership of water bod- sels are used as dis- • Small-scale nuclear ies threatens (fishing) tribution centres. facilities have an acci- tourism. dent risk.

• Development of com- • Increased interest to- • All-year tourism may • Automatisation of • Improved ecological • Tourism in the Gulf • Multisectoral entre- munity-based wind wards locally pro- become possible as maritime transport state of the maritime of Finland focuses on preneurship in the power/solar power duced food. consumers are near- becomes possible area creates a posi- the Hanko, Helsin- archipelago and live- may increase with in- • It may be possible to by all the time. for small vessels in tive circle. ki and Kotka regions, lihoods based on the creased environmen- increase the catch addition to freight • Eco-efficiency reduc- strengthening the lifestyle. tal awareness. volumes of some fish transport. es harmful effects on businesses. • Tourism income may • The political will is species. • The circular econo- the environment. • Increased profession- be steered to small the strongest for • Fishing as a livelihood my brings opportu- • Different aquaculture al fishing in the Gulf local operators. clean energy. and in terms of tour- nities for the renewal methods (e.g. cultiva- of Finland. • Development of en- OPPORTUNI- ism will strengthen. of industry. tion of algae and fish- • Close integration of ergy technology and TIES • Green energy for ing) clean the water the cultural heritage education and work vessels. and the environment. with the develop- related to it. • Reduced submarine ment of tourism. • Increasing the educa- noise. • Extensive production tion related to small- of green energy. scale production. • Village areas in shared use (autonomous villages).

Impacts of scenario 2 identified in the workshops for the Gulf of Finland region.

25 Scenario 2 The Archipelago Sea and southern Sea of Bothnia

Description of the area Scenario 2

Maritime transport & ENERGY industry Offshore wind power is built especially on the exclusive economic zone to the south from Åland and the Sea of Bothnia far from the shore, considering the environment and total economical (front of Pori and Rauma, from Uusikaupunki to Pori and on to Merikarvia). The state State of steers the construction (incl. subsidies), but also compa- the marine Energy nies are realizing the potential of offshore wind power. environment The development of green technology has progressed so that building offshore wind farms further and further to the sea is profitable. This resolves the conflict between the nuisance/visual harm caused by offshore wind power and tourism in the area and thereby improves attitudes Tourism & towards offshore wind power. The electrification of the recreation Fishing archipelago becomes an issue when electric boats and habitation in the archipelago increase.

Aquaculture

MARITIME TRANSPORT AND INDUSTRY Maritime transport Small volume transport and the development of local pro- and industry duction support living in the archipelago and services in Aquaculture Energy the area. The archipelago has lots of opportunities for the Tourism and testing and development of drone transport and different recreation kinds of automation, which further increases the attraction Fishing of the area as a maritime competence centre and improves the opportunities to develop circular economy solutions. Illustration of scenario 2 on the map In this scenario, also minor maritime industry is dynamic in addition to large shipyards. Maritime industry in the FISHING AND AQUACULTURE TOURISM AND RECREATIONAL USE area finds synergies with offshore wind power. Increased Professional fishing sustains and grows stronger in the (incl. cultural heritage) recreational boating increases safety risks at sea archipelago, especially in the form of coastal fishing. The Sustainability is emphasised in tourism in the area and fisher trade becomes more varied and expands into the people use sustainable transport connections. Private STATE OF THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT sales of tourism and recreational services and the sales boating becomes electric and e-boats and the increased The state of the marine environment has also improved of processed products. Young fish are grown in circulating popularity of sailboats put pressure on the addition and in the Archipelago Sea and the impacts of forestry and water facilities at the coast, and further growing moves to development of marinas in the area and the improvement agriculture have been reduced as a result of a change in the open sea areas of the Archipelago Sea and southern of waste processing (such as sorting, sewage). Nature the political climate. People take care of the environment, Sea of Bothnia. The Archipelago Sea attracts lots of recre- tourism increases with the improved diversity and the move around and live in the archipelago ecologically ational fishers. Fishers and aquaculturers work together, increased appreciation of the nature. Tourism destinations (recycling, electrical transport etc.). The environmental offering fishing trips. The increased nature and experience include several villages in the archipelago. Nature tourism load caused by communities is reduced and stores favour tourism also increases interest towards fishing as a trade is implemented in a decentralised manner, and people do locally produced and sustainable products. The load and the aquaculture technology. Increased innovation also not concentrate extensively on specific areas. Access to the caused by cruise tourism has been reduced and more and expands the opportunities to use fish, algae and mussels most sensitive areas is restricted. The archipelago culture more cruise ships sail the Baltic Sea with the help of new in the pharmaceuticals industry, among other things. and long history of the area attract tourists, and cultural environmentally friendly technologies. The submarine University competence in the area supports the R&D work heritage becomes a naturally integrated part of the area’s noise caused by sea traffic is brought under control. for new products. image. 26 Scenario 2 The Archipelago Sea and southern Sea of Bothnia

Impacts of scenario 2

SECTORS MSP’S OBJECTIVES

Fishing and Tourism, recreation Maritime transport Good condition of People’s well-being IMPACTS Energy Blue growth aquaculture and cultural heritage and industry the sea and participation

• The business will • Strict environmen- • Decentralised tour- • Traffic will not de- • Decentralised oper- • Excess reliance on • Tourism causes prob- not develop and the tal legislation pre- ism burdens the envi- crease, but emissions ations, e.g. tourism, digital solutions. lems for recreational costs will not de- vents large-scale fish ronment everywhere may. burden the nature. • Risks related to the housing. crease if the sub- farming. evenly. • Increased rental • Becoming lulled into utilisation of the ex- • Lack of competence, sidies are too • Education provid- • Significant increase boating impacts traf- believing that every- clusive economic e.g. fishing. generous. ers are not able to of tourism in the Ar- fic safety. thing is good. Lack of zone. • Digitalisation may • Regulation may not respond to the ex- chipelago Sea is an maintenance of the • Reduced produc- alienate people from RISKS be able to keep up tended duties of a environmental risk natural values. tion and competence the nature. with the increased fisherman. and requires success- • Unexpected impacts if we fall behind offshore wind power. • Small-scale opera- ful harmonisation. of new solutions on development. • Increased vulnerabili- tions are too expen- the state of the sea ty in large systems. sive for the society. and the nature. • The fish volumes are too low. • Possibility to develop • Fish farming is ac- • The archipelago stays • Focus on the in- • A clearer and func- • The opportunities for • Technology makes it many sorts of opera- knowledged as an ef- alive, which pro- creased degree tional network of blue growth are good possible to live, pro- tions to the extensive ficient way to promotes the preserva- of processing of conservation areas. in many sectors. vide services and power plant areas. duce animal protein. tion of the cultural products. • Research will pro- • Competition creates run a business in the • Increased innovation • Nutrient emissions environment. • Small maritime in- vide more informa- pioneers and new archipelago. through subsidies. trading reduces the • Improved water qual- dustry companies tion about the impact solutions. • Maritime experienc- • Cables become pos- total nutrient load. ity promotes tourism. stay viable and cre- of operations and • A model country of es have a positive sible from southern • The sector seeks add- • Recreational fishing ate jobs. what operations can cleantech; demand impact on general OPPORTUNI- Åland to Estonia and ed value from other near the coast cre- be performed side for environmen- well-being. TIES Sweden. livelihoods (tourism) ates opportunities by side. tal solutions also • The sharing econo- and increased degree for tourism. • The good state of the elsewhere. my promotes social of processing. maritime environ- tolerance. ment enables sus- • Versatile opportu- tainable growth and nities for finding well-being of people. employment.

Impacts of scenario 2 identified in the workshops for the Archipelago Sea and southern Sea of Bothnia.

27 Scenario 2 Northern Sea of Bothnia, the Kvarken and the Bay of Bothnia

Description of the area Maritime transport & industry MARITIME TRANSPORT The volume of maritime transport increases in general and Scenario 2 some of truck traffic volumes transfers to sea transport. Traffic parallel to the coast as well as passenger and small transport increase. The clean sea in the area attracts tour- State of ists. Accessibility and services of the archipelago improve the marine Energy especially in the Kvarken. environment

STATE OF THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT Hydraulic construction is controlled strictly so as not to endanger the ecological status of the area. Load from agriculture and forestry has been successfully decreased Tourism & significantly, which improves the state of the maritime recreation Fishing area. The visibility of coastal waters is very good. The maritime environment has the best state compared to other planning areas. Natural fish populations are improving, which promotes recreational fishing and demand for guide services. Aquaculture FISHING AND AQUACULTURE The environmentally friendly development and placement of fishing and aquaculture is strongly supported. Migratory fish population have recovered and migration barriers have been removed. Fishing activity is rich and it focuses in addition to tourism to the Archipelago Sea, tourism also on the Kvarken and the northernmost areas of the Bay of attracts and brings people to the northern area. Bothnia. Utilisation of cyprinids increases. Identification of

Aquaculture regional issues (such as seals). Environmental regulation CULTURAL HERITAGE restricts the increase of aquaculture and some aquacul- The sustainable use of national parks increases steadily Energy ture facilities are located in the Bay of Bothnia financial with the increased domestic tourism. Foreign tourists also

Tourism zone and in front of Pietarsaari. find their way to the area. Tourists are interested in cultur- and recreation al heritage sites, such as lighthouses and fisher villages. Fishing TOURISM AND RECREATIONAL USE The good water quality and the unique submarine cultural Tourism and recreational use increase significantly in heritage of the northern area also attract divers. The sub- the area, focusing near the coast in connection with marine cultural heritage is protected. Illustration of scenario 2 on the map cities, archipelagos and nature conservation areas. The electrification of short-haul flights allows the growth of MARITIME INDUSTRY AND MINERALS ENERGY international passenger streams from a short distance. Maintaining a good state of the marine environment Extensive offshore wind power areas are created in the Climate change has not melted the ice layer of the sea, and steers the development of operations (cf. central treat- open sea, and large wind farms are built at Kaskinen, maritime nature safaris (incl. offshore wind farms) attract ment plants established and centralised port operations). Kalajoki and Oulu latitudes, for example. The coordination tourists to the north in the summer and in the winter. “Icy Developed process technology and chemistry create new of wind power construction, other use and environmental desert” is a major attraction of the area. Tourists want to opportunities for the minerals and maritime industries in values is emphasised in the maritime area. There is more be a part of the local archipelago culture, and residents on the area where cleanliness is an obvious selling point. Op- research data concerning the maritime area and coopera- the coast provide opportunities for this via digital plat- erations concerning the seafloor harmful to the environ- tion with Sweden has been realised. Peat, for example, is forms. Tourists stay in the area for longer periods of time ment are focused near urban areas and by the fairways. being developed into higher added-value products and it is and the clean marine environment is utilised extensively Dredged material is placed sustainably (filling of ports, no longer used as energy. as a resource for arctic maritime tourism. Instead of and noise banks etc.) and is utilised to an even higher degree. 28 Scenario 2 Northern Sea of Bothnia, the Kvarken and the Bay of Bothnia

Impacts of scenario 2

SECTORS MSP’S OBJECTIVES

Fishing and Tourism, recreation Maritime transport Good condition of People’s well-being IMPACTS Energy Blue growth aquaculture and cultural heritage and industry the sea and participation

• Big units may be sus- • Slow growth in • Tourism burdens the • Decline of the in- • Local recreation and • High investment • Businesses will no ceptible to disrup- the aquaculture nature. dustry, harbour and tourism negatively af- costs for businesses. longer be viable in tions, security of sup- business. • Conflicts between business activity. fect the nature. • Increased conflicts small scale. ply at risk. local residents/ • Diminished op- • Harmful impacts between sectors. • Decentralised con- • Sensitivity to the eco- tourists. portunities for of wind power sta- struction/ living are nomic cycle and prof- • Increased price level, development. tions to the coastal expensive to the RISKS itability risks. high for the locals. ecosystems. society. • Construction of • Traffic accident risks. • Effects of increased wind power stations • Environmen- wind power on the threatens the cultural tal impacts of new scenery. heritage. dredging.

• Functional • Improved state of the • Fishing tourism, util- • Improved maritime • Comprehensive • Increased tourist vol- • Northern regions self-sufficiency. maritime environ- isation of national transport connec- improvement of umes create opportu- stay inhabited and • Cross-border coop- ment creates oppor- parks and the North- tions to Sweden. the state of the nities for livelihoods. the village communi- eration and synergy tunities for sustain- ern Ring Route (Fin- • Maritime transport environment. • Business opportunities viable. benefits. able fish farming. land+Sweden) benefit and industries turn • Strengthening of fish ties e.g. in terms of • People have more • Close relationship be- livelihoods related to low-emission. populations. biotechnology, tour- opportunities to • Increased innovation tourism. and development of tween the producer • Increased passenger • Income streams al- ism and fishing as choose where they alternative energy and the consumer. • Successful control and small transport. low investments pro- well as mining. want to live since forms. • Profits stay with the of the cultural her- moting the natural • Small entrepreneurs remote working is OPPORTUNI- itage in the entire • New business opera- flexible. locals. tions related to mar- state. have opportunities TIES maritime area (Swe- for success. • Increased self-suf- den-Finland) be- itime transport and industry. ficiency and local comes possible. and small produc- • Taking control of lo- tion have a positive cal competence. effect on people’s well-being. • Blue growth creates jobs and well-being.

Impacts of scenario 2 identified in the workshops for Northern Sea of Bothnia, the Kvarken and the Bay of Bothnia region.

29 Scenario 3 Baltic Sea of restrictions and tensions Scenario 3 Alternative developments of central uncertainties

Maritime area future table

Uncertain and Baltic Sea of New tourists find Stronger Energy Greener through Baltic Sea Moderate change Sea as a Biggest coastal centralised peace the Baltic Sea cooperation unionformed regulation weakens (climate change breadbasket cities keep their maritime (focal point of archipelago within the EU byinfrastructure (strong role of the (eutrophication has no significant (fish as vitality logistics security politics is (increased (EU sticks projects EU and the state and oxygen loss effect on the environmentally (ageing population (strategic elsewhere) popularity of together in the (moderate in protection) aggravate) weather) friendly mass moves to nearby importance nature tourism) midst of global increase of production, fish cities) of fairways is protectionism) offshore wind as replacement of emphasised) power in meat) restricted areas)

The volume Increased Tourism in International End of Profitable and The status stays Significant Changing fish Strong of maritime tension in the the Baltic Sea trade combustion and green poor changes population and concentration logistics Baltic Sea area becomes more (global markets in electrification (new business (blue-green (effects of climate steady increase on the increases at (cooperation more difficult the Baltic Sea) (subsidised grid under the terms algae blooms and change reflected of aquaculture metropolis,port the companies’ difficult, hybrid (less recreational connection of of responsibility) nutrient load) on the Baltic Sea) (large units cities die down terms influencing) use of the offshore wind optimal, with (big cities expand, (logistics maritime area) power, farms profitable immigration) networks of the further out on the locations) companies) sea)

Reduced Congested Baltic Tourism Ecological Moderate energy Ineffective Improved Radical change Flourishing Increased environmental Sea concentrates in footprint steers transition environmental condition of the (heavy rainfall, leisure fishing popularity of the effects of (new security the biggest cities consumption (offshore wind policy maritime area floods, major and strict archipelago maritime policy situation, around the Baltic (local production power under (large-scale (successful seasonal regulation of (transition of work logistics climate refugees) Sea and consumption, the terms of offshore wind reduction of load variation) aquaculture life, living in many (circular (increased cruise new technological companies, no power projects and recovery of (return of Baltic places, people economy, local tourism, interest solutions) subsidised grid cannot be started) the sea) herring as food, seek access to production,small in the culture) connections, small fish farming on pure nature) volume transport) farms near the the ground in shore) closed water systems)

Developments emphasised in scenario 3

31 Scenario 3 Baltic Sea of restrictions and tensions

National description SOCIETY AND POLITICS MARITIME TRANSPORT The power struggle between global superpowers has With the increased political tension, the Baltic Sea area escalated into a trade war and geopolitical tensions also more and more becomes a strategic playing field, and the increase. The uncertain security situation reduces invest- strategic significance of logistics routes is emphasised. ments. There is friction between the western countries Maritime routes are possibly also used as a means of and Russia in particular. The restrictions to funding caused geopolitics and using in the Northern Sea Route becomes by sanctions also make it difficult to execute environmen- more difficult. Certain safe growth corridors are empha- tal cooperation projects in Russia. The likelihood of the sised (such as Turku–Åland–Stockholm), and the ports of military threat becoming realised is small, but the Finnish the west coast gain strength. Passenger traffic reduces Defence Force still has strong interests with regard to the substantially especially in the south. Recreational boating maritime area. Tight cooperation and increased integra- also becomes more difficult due to repeated cable projects tion between the EU countries stabilise Finland’s situation, especially in the Gulf of Finland and the Archipelago Sea. however. No global climate treaties have been reached, but Prevailing cyber threats and distrust between national EU still tries to lead by example and significantly tightens operations slow down the development of autonomous its environmental politics. EU’s Water Framework Directive maritime transport. is interpreted more extensively from the perspective of sustainable development while also considering the perspectives of social and economic sustainability.

ENERGY CITIES AND POPULATION A joint energy union of the EU is created and energy Mobility increases within the EU and Europe continues to self-sufficiency on the European level is emphasised. urbanize as the ageing population moves to nearby cities. Security of supply and joint ambitious emission targets are People pack into cities also in Finland, and the biggest emphasised in the harmonised energy market. The Euro- coastal cities keep their vitality. Ageing people in particular pean Union subsidies renewable energy production forms, move to coastal cities due to the declining infrastructure which in the Baltic Sea means direct subsidies to offshore of the archipelago. Vital operations of the society are faced wind power and the construction of wind power stations with more and more cyber threats as a part of hybrid alongside the transmission cables. Coal is still, however, influencing. used in the production of energy to balance the variation of production in other countries. As the situation is tense, energy production is decentralised in order to minimise vulnerability.

32 Scenario 3 Baltic Sea of restrictions and tensions

THE ENVIRONMENT AND CONDITION FISHING AND AQUACULTURE OF THE MARITIME AREA As EU’s environmental politics become tighter, the taxation As the tensions grow, also maritime areas are reserved of meat is increased and a fish and vegetable-based diet increasingly for defence use. Environmental cooperation becomes significantly more common. Meat is a luxury with Russia is challenging and interaction is reduced, product, whereas aquacultured fish is everyday food. The which has a negative impact on the state of the maritime interests of the Finnish Defence Force impede trawling environment. EU takes on a strong role in climate action. in the open sea and fishing focuses on the coast. EU’s Attempts are made to stop eutrophication by means of agricultural policy relies on more productive areas and regulation, decelerating the weakening of the state of the aquaculture in the Baltic Sea is subsidised. Efforts to marine environment. Microplastics are banned in the EU, reach self-sufficiency in the production of protein and the but this does not solve the problem as there are no global improved state of water due to stricter regulation increase treaties on the matter. Signs of climate change can be ob- aquaculture and production becomes multifold, focusing served in the weather conditions, but the Baltic Sea is still on the Bay of Bothnia and the Archipelago Sea in partic- a favourable environment for many sources of livelihood. ular. The use of domestic fish and the utilisation of side streams generated by it as well as processing (e.g., bio-oil) increase significantly. Various blue bioeconomy innovations also increase the demand for raw materials from the Baltic Sea (such as cosmetics and the medicine).

TOURISM AND RECREATIONAL USE The citizens’ feeling of security suffers from the increased tension and information influencing. Tourism becomes more difficult, and hardly any tourists visit the Baltic Sea anymore. Cruises to Russia also decrease. The political tensions (such as flyover bans) are a part of the reason, but also personal travel emission budgets reduce tourism. Local recreation becomes a trend and tourism is the luxury of few wealthy people (a seascape becomes a privilege). Many cultural heritage sites are held by the Finnish De- fence Force. There is increased pressure of use in popular tourism and recreation destinations such as the Suomen- linna sea fortress. Instead of the Gulf of Finland, tourism potential focuses on the safe and peaceful Bay of Bothnia (incl. branding of silence and darkness).

33 Scenario 3 Baltic Sea of restrictions and tensions

Description of the plot 2019-2025 2025-2035 2035-2050

Increased geopolitical Promotion of self-sufficiency Ambitions of self-sufficient food tensions and more difficult and security of supply drives production increase the growth cooperation with Russia the development of the EU of blue biotechnology

• The trade war between USA, China and Russia esca- • The geopolitical hybrid influencing between superpow- • EU focuses on strengthening the internal market and lates, import duties are elevated and deliveries denied. ers increases and military tensions increase also in hybrid defence in the politically and economically un- Geopolitical tensions increase, slowing down the eco- the Baltic Sea. As the tensions grow, also maritime ar- certain global situation. Floating weapons depots gain nomic development in Europe as well. eas are reserved increasingly for defence use. popularity in international maritime areas. • Stronger confrontations. The western countries bring • The Baltic Sea area more and more becomes a strate- • Europe continues to urbanize as the ageing popu- out the unfair competition in China, for example, and gic playing field, and the strategic significance of lo- lation moves to nearby cities. People pack into cities areas increasingly need to choose the political camp gistics routes is emphasised. Safe growth corridors are also in Finland, and the biggest coastal cities keep their with which they identify themselves. emphasised (such as Turku–Åland–Stockholm), and the vitality. ports of the west coast gain strength. • Resource protectionism increases, adding to the un- • EU and Scandinavia aim more and more at self-suffi- certainty of the availability of energy and minerals. • Due to the crisis of the foreign policy, energy self-sufficiency in terms of energy and food production. ciency on the European level is emphasised even more • As the foreign policy tensions increase, , i.e., the balance between carbon di- EU’s internal and a of the EU is created. Ener- • Carbon neutrality grows tighter in order to ensure the secu- joint energy union oxide emissions and carbon sinks, is achieved cooperation gy security is increased with strong control towards by 2050 rity of supply in the region, and integration between EU by many Baltic Sea countries thanks to active climate low-carbon economy. countries increases. policy. is built in the Baltic Sea • New energy infrastructure due to climate • Cooperation with Russia in terms of the Baltic Sea (marine cables). Offshore wind power is supported and • As the water temperature increases also becomes more difficult when the security environ- change, the Baltic Sea stays unfrozen almost the entire transmission cabling is constructed to offshore wind ment weakens (incl. the implementation of environmen- winter, which increases fish farming on the sea. farms. tal cooperation projects). • EU’s increasing environmental regulation focuses on • The use of domestic fish and the utilisation of side puts pressure as well as processing (e.g., • A fatal extreme weather phenomenon the , and the diversity and streams generated by it on climate policy actions in Europe, and meeting of climate goals bio-oil) increase significantly. Various blue bioecono- EU substan- good condition of marine nature receives less attention. tially tightens its environmental politics. Microplas- my innovations also increase the demand for raw ma- tics are banned in the EU, for example. • Load to the waters becomes a part of food policy terials from the Baltic Sea (such as cosmetics and the from the perspective of the total load caused by • As EU’s environmental politics become tighter, the control medicine). tax- food production. In addition to tax control, and a fish and vegeta- load quotas • Increased rainfall, poor environmental cooperation and ation of meat is increased are distributed/bought between agriculture and fishery ble-based diet becomes significantly more common. structural loads within catchment areas. continue to eutrophicate the Bal- The Water Framework Directive is interpreted more tic Sea. More and more plastic trash, chemical residues extensively from the perspective of sustainable devel- • Fishing opportunities decrease in the Gulf of Finland es- and environmental toxins accumulate in the sea. The di- opment while also considering the perspectives of so- pecially and import of fish to Russia decreases. versity of flora and fauna is reduced. cial and economic sustainability. • Fish farming in the open sea increases globally as • Tourism decreases and focuses on the safe and peace- • Investors seeking sustainable targets invest heavily production methods and the competitiveness of pro- ful Bay of Bothnia. Tourism becomes the luxury of few on aquaculture and large facilities are built in increas- duction improve. Efforts to reach self-sufficiency in wealthy people and a seascape becomes a privilege. ing numbers in the open sea, especially in the Gulf of the production of protein, the longer growing season Many cultural heritage sites are held by the Finnish De- Bothnia. and the improved state of water due to stricter regu- fence Force. lation increase aquaculture and production becomes • The citizens’ feeling of security suffers from the increased tension and information influencing. Regional multifold. tourism and recreation becomes a trend.

34 Scenario 3 National level

Impacts on MSP’s objectives

BLUE GROWTH • The general uncertainty and fear of conflicts weaken the economic growth and reduce investments and jobs. • The biggest cities on the coast are doing fine, while the smaller ones are withering away. • Operations and transport increase in the northern maritime areas as the highest tensions are focused on the Gulf of Finland. This may bring opportunities for livelihood and create synergies in the northern areas, but also lead to conflicts. • The Finnish Defence Force expand their operations to cover even larger maritime areas and islands. This restricts the construction of wind power. Areas with limited access also restrict tourism and recreation. • Ensuring the security of supply is emphasised in energy production. EU’s energy politics may allow a better overall security of supply in the EU. Transmission cables shared with Sweden become possible and the need for domestic clean energy may also be emphasised.

STATE OF THE ENVIRONMENT • The tense operating environment reduces environmental protection. Environmental risks and the risk of accidents increase. On the other hand, ecological values may become stronger in the areas of limited access. • The increased activities in the northern maritime areas cause increasing negative impacts on the environment due to the dredging of new fairways, for example. • The growth in logistics increases the risk of accidents at sea and causes more dredging of fairways and the related impacts. The increased extraction of sand from the sea may threaten diversity.

PEOPLE’S WELL-BEING AND PARTICIPATION • The opportunities to participation decrease and democracy declines. • The significance of local communities may grow. • The restrictions of access decrease everyman’s rights.

Indicative opportunities of scenario 3 identified based on the workshops with regard to the state of the environment, blue growth and people’s well-being and participation.

35 Scenario 3 The Gulf of Finland Scenario 3 Description of the area

ENERGY Aquaculture EU’s energy union and the opposition of the Finnish Defence Force to the construction of wind power cause a Maritime transport and Maritime transport industry conflicting situation in the Gulf of Finland. This prevents Helsinki - Stockholm/ Maritime transport Germany/ Holland Kotka - Stockholm any significant construction of wind power in the Gulf of energy union- Energy Finland. The energy union brings cables to the seafloor, Electrical cable energy union- connecting various areas, and the Gulf of Finland is used Tourism Electrical cable and as an energy transmission platform. Production is decen- recreation tralised and storage is developed. Fishing

MARITIME TRANSPORT The security environment moves focus to the maritime Illustration of scenario 3 on the map connections from the ports of Helsinki and Kotka to continental Europe and Sweden. Land and air transport TOURISM AND RECREATIONAL USE increases at the expense of sea transport. The securi- Foreign tourist streams to the Gulf of Finland are reduced ty environment also impacts the movement of people, and the regional tourism and recreation trend is not fully decreasing passenger transport by sea significantly, which adequate to make up for this, even though the migration Maritime transport & causes problems to the tourism industry. Few autonomous gain of the area increases the local tourism and recreation- industry vessels are seen in the Gulf of Finland. Their test areas and al use of the area by residents. Only Hanko and Helsinki operation are placed in other maritime areas. are able to retain their favourable position amongst tourists. The weakening of the Russian connection has a highly STATE OF THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT negative impact on tourism in the Gulf of Finland, and The state of the maritime area in the Gulf of Finland cruise tourists from St. Petersburg no longer visit the ports continues to decline. With the tensions, the role of the of the Gulf of Finland. The possible expansion of Finnish State of the marine Energy Finnish Defence Force increases in the Gulf of Finland, and Defence Force areas in front of Kotka and Porkkala hinders environment the possible increase in defence force areas restricts the the recreational use of these areas. The seascape becomes establishment of new nature conservation areas, among a luxury product, and proximity to the shore is a subject other things. The islands closed due to the defence forces of competition between several interested parties. The ca- retain their natural state. The increased number of sea- bling projects which have increased with the energy union floor cabling due to the energy union may have a harmful hinder recreational boating, which reduces the attraction effect on the marine nature. of the maritime area for recreational use. Tourism & recreation Fishing FISHING AND AQUACULTURE CULTURAL HERITAGE The reduction of civil transport in the maritime area Cultural heritage is overridden by security issues. Ship- affects fishery and trawling. The small volume of fishing wrecks and building stock are destroyed to make way for is evenly distributed on the coast of the Gulf of Finland security devices. The use of maritime areas is restricted except the Helsinki region. The tensions between the significantly, and the seascape becomes a privilege of Aquaculture countries in the region reduce the export of fish to Russia, select few people. The disappearance of cultural heritage although foreign trade making up for this may be obtain- and landscape is significant in the Gulf of Finland com- able elsewhere, such as from China. Aquaculture grows pared to Finland’s other maritime areas. Migration pres- multifold in front of Hanko and Helsinki, among others, sure in the Gulf of Finland increases the need to preserve which compensates the weakened possibilities for fishing. cultural heritage and its values. 36 Scenario 3 The Gulf of Finland

Impacts of scenario 3

SECTORS MSP’S OBJECTIVES

Fishing and Tourism, recreation Maritime transport Good condition of the People’s well-being IMPACTS Energy Blue growth aquaculture and cultural heritage andindustry sea and participation

• Increased maritime • Fishing culture, com- • The deterioration of • Increased accident • The exploitation • Increased activities • Diminished partici- traffic makes increas- petence and small- the environment re- risks (in front of Kot- of natural resourc- and reduced regula- pation opportunities ing wind power dif- scale coastal fishing duces the attraction ka, for instance). es is powerful and tion result in conflicts (foreign decision-mak- ficult in the Gulf of diminish. of tourism. • Impact of the devel- short-sighted, which between sectors. ing and lack of local Finland. • Increased tourism opment of the North- leads to a disruption • The tunnel to Tallinn knowledge). • Conflicts between wears down the na- ern Sea Route for the of the ecological sta- may weaken the har- • Polarisation of the re- wind power projects ture and cultural Gulf of Finland. tus and a reduction of bours in the region gion and degradation water quality. and defence. environments. • Emissions of the and increase compe- of services at the mar- • Energy production • Cruise tourism does mining industry • The centralisation of tition in the Gulf of gins of the region. (offshore wind power) not generate income pose a risk to the operations increas- Finland. • Reduced living satis- moves away from the for local operators. environment. es the pressure on the • Financial benefits es- faction and attraction. RISKS environment in the fo- biggest areas of con- • Centralisation of tour- • The tunnel to Tallinn cape from the region. • Cultural sumption just like nu- cal areas (esp. Helsin- ism creates a “Lap- may make it more ki and Kotka regions). impoverishment. clear power (Helsinki land” on the Gulf of difficult to operate metropolitan area). Finland, which de- the harbours in the • Risk of oil accidents creases the versatili- region. increases in front of Kotka, for instance. ty and local nature of • Privatisation of infra- the tourism trade. structure and har- • Release of sediment- bours poses a risk. ed harmful substances being released into the sea poses a risk.

• Big capital makes it • Increased self-suffi- • Well-maintained, at- • Well-maintained, at- • With the centrali- • Centralisation of ac- • New jobs especial- possible to build in ciency and opportu- tractive cultural cen- tractive cultural cen- sation of activities, tivities strengthens ly e.g. in the Kotka re- the exclusive econom- nities for success for tres: Kotka-Hamina, tres: Kotka-Hamina, the reduced use of businesses especial- gion in addition to the ic zone. Possibility to specialised compa- Porvoo and Hanko, Porvoo and Hanko, the margin areas ly in the Helsinki and capital area. include expensive ra- nies. Blue economy counterbalancing the counterbalancing the may lead to an im- Kotka regions. The • Improved connec- dar compensations. innovations. big cities of the Bal- big cities of the Bal- provement of the small towns of the tions from Finland to tic Sea. tic Sea. environment. Gulf of Finland benefit Europe. OPPORTUNI- • Improved raw materi- from increased cruise TIES al efficiency. tourism. • Globalisation of en- • New commercial vironmental activism forms of use for blue- creates pressure for green algae. sustainable operating • Lease and sales in- methods. come for water body owners.

Impacts of scenario 3 identified in the workshops for the Gulf of Finland region.

37 Maritime transport & Scenario 3 The Archipelago Sea and southern Sea of Bothnia industry

Description of the area State of the marine Energy environment

ENERGY FISHING AND AQUACULTURE Energy production areas are primarily selected based on Fish caught by fishing is a luxury product and recreational Tourism & recreation Fishing the security of supply, which may lead to the decentralisa- fishing gains popularity. The biggest coastal cities of the tion of energy production. Åland has energy production area offer fishing tourism on fishing boats in the nearby as a demilitarised zone to support its self-sufficiency. Off- waters. Due to the deteriorated condition of the sea, new shore wind power becomes more common in the southern species find their way to the area, including the air-breath- Sea of Bothnia. The energy union increases cable connec- ing catfish. Aquacultured fish becomes everyday food as tions from the west coast to the direction of Sweden. the consumption of meat decreases. Load to the waters Aquaculture has become a part of food policy control from the per- MARITIME TRANSPORT AND INDUSTRY spective of the total load caused by food production and The ports on the west coast become stronger due to the production facilities concentrate on the southern parts of Scenario 3 security environment and the focus of maritime transport the Sea of Bothnia in particular as the production of pork moves partly away from the congested Gulf of Finland. and chicken has died down. In addition to tax control, load Cooperation with Sweden is increased, which is reflected quotas are distributed/bought between agriculture and in increased ship traffic, among other things. The threat of fishery within catchment areas. The nutrient load quo- cyber influencing makes maritime transport more difficult tas are set on a sustainable level. Fur farming has been and the role of maritime surveillance is emphasised. Trans- prohibited due to stricter regulation. Major changes in port volumes increase and ports are expanded. Cities of the utilisation of the Baltic herring catch are needed as a the area develop and the significance of ports in the area result. The transition is subsidised by the state. is emphasised. The fleet is developed and maintained. The strong maritime logistics competence in the area opens up TOURISM AND RECREATIONAL USE new opportunities for maritime industry and logistics. (incl. cultural heritage) Destinations near the cities (such as Ruissalo, Yyteri) are STATE OF THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT important for tourism, and the significance of coastal The state of the maritime environment is a continuum archipelago increases in the area. People seek some of the current state. Cattle production in Finland Proper luxury and an escape from the daily life from the nature decreases, but field cultivation areas do not decrease and the proximity of the sea. Tourism destinations in the because the pressure to produce nutrition remains un- archipelago are decreasing in number, however, and the changed or increases, partly due to reasons related to the remaining local recreational areas are pressed hard due to security of supply. The Sea of Bothnia is a “forgotten area”, tourism overload. Permanent residents leave the archi- and as a result, the state of the marine environment is pelago, which also weakens the services of the area from the best there. The presence of the Finnish Defence Force the perspective of tourism. Cultural history destinations of improves the condition of nature in the defence areas due the coastal archipelago and the Sea of Bothnia still attract Aquaculture to the restricted use. Aquaculture increases, which causes people and gain in popularity in the changing world. The Maritime transport a threat to the state of the marine environment in the area. poor condition of the maritime environment reduces and industry nature tourism and private boating, among other things. Energy

Tourism The Sea of Bothnia becomes more attractive (cleanliness and recreation and safety). Fishing

Illustration of scenario 3 on the map 38 Scenario 3 The Archipelago Sea and southern Sea of Bothnia

Impacts of scenario 3

SECTORS MSP’S OBJECTIVES

Fishing and Tourism, recreation Maritime transport Good condition of the People’s well-being IMPACTS Energy Blue growth aquaculture and cultural heritage andindustry sea and participation

• Western coopera- • The poor state of • Closed areas reduce • Closed areas restrict • The state’sregulation • Reduced tourism and • Increased inequali- tion with Sweden may the maritime envi- the opportunities for business operations of the environment deterioration of ev- ty and the tense situ- not be realised due to ronment reduces tourism and recre- and other activities. may lessen in a tense eryman’s rights due to ation decrease peo- the risks seen in the the possibilities for ation in the Archipela- • The accident risks of situation, which de- restrictions. ple’s freedom and region. aquaculture. go Sea. uncontrolled mar- creases the state of • Low development of well-being. • Operations of the • Farming of salmon itime transport the environment. wind power due to the • Strong regulation may Finnish Defence Force may become more increase. • Increased accident uncertain investment increase opposition impact the placement difficult due to the risks. environment. and extreme thinking. of energy production; warming of water as • Releases to the envi- • The development of • Reduced oppor- RISKS the focal point of pro- a result of climate ronmentresulting fro- an EU energy union tunities for recre- duction will be in the change. ma conflict pose a may not be possible in ation reduce people’s Sea of Bothnia north • Reduced willingness risk. the tense situation of well-being. of Åland. to invest. • Denser activity along the Baltic Sea. the coast increases the burden on the environment.

• Sweden wants to in- • The total budgeting of • Emphasised role of re- • Infrastructure also • Natural values get • Increased domestic • Increased sense of tegrate Finland even nutrients evens out gions near the cities in develops in line with stronger in the areas production, self-suffi- community. more closely into the • the nutrient load. recreational use and armament. closed from public. ciency and security of • Increased viability of West. Joint cables are tourism (Turku-Ruis- supply. • Using Baltic herring as • The harbours benefit • Increased interest in the coastal cities. developed with Swe- salo, Pori-Yyteri). from the situation. business operations • Possibility to develop den in front of Pori. forage, increased export opportunities. • The Sea of Bothnia • Increased willingness may also improve the the transfer network region is quite safe of global companies opportunities to pre- (e.g. cable to Sweden). OPPORTUNI- • Increased significance – this attracts tourists. to invest in the region serve natural values. • Technological growth TIES of fishing for domestic use at the expense of the improves the possi- Gulf of Finland. bilities for aquaculture. Growth of aquaculture supports blue growth.

Impacts of scenario 3 identified in the workshops for the Archipelago Sea and southern Sea of Bothnia.

39 Scenario 3 Northern Sea of Bothnia, the Kvarken and the Bay of Bothnia

Description of the area Scenario 3

Maritime transport & industry

ENERGY The tense and conflicting Baltic Sea pushes energy production from the Gulf of Finland to the Gulf of Bothnia. The security of supply perspective brings out the versality State of the marine Energy of energy production, and a decentralised production environment structure is emphasised (decentralised, versatile and partly small-scale production is also emphasised on the mainland). Offshore wind farms are constructed also in the northern area (e.g., Oulu, Raahe, Pietarsaari and Kaskinen latitudes) while considering the interests of the Finnish

Defence Force. The radar compensation area of the Bay of Tourism & Fishing Bothnia has been expanded. International electricity trans- recreation mission connections are also developed from the perspective of safety and security of supply, and cables are laid in the northern area as well. The safety of the Bay of Bothnia is emphasised, but the interests of the Finnish Defence Force are also reflected on the Bay of Bothnia (safeguard- Aquaculture ing infrastructure critical to the security of supply, such as Aquaculture nuclear power stations). Energy

Tourism MARITIME LOGISTICS FISHING AND AQUACULTURE and The ports of the area are safe and viable compared to Coastal fishing is exercised in the Kvarken area especially recreation the southern conflict ports and the aim is to keep them in around Vaasa and also in the northern part of the Bay Fishing Finnish ownership. The sea routes in the area are relatively of Bothnia to some degree. Trawling decreases as the safe and functional. Internal traffic in the area grows and interests of the Finnish Defence Force increase. Aquacul- Illustration of scenario 3 on the map ship traffic in the west–east direction and in the direction ture increases substantially in the area, focusing in front of of the coast increases. The traffic difficulties of the North- Kaskinen, Vaasa, Kalajoki, Oulu and Kemi in particular. The CULTURAL HERITAGE ern Sea Route also create opportunities for marine traffic abundant increase in aquaculture also increases the need Some of the built heritage sites crumble away as a result of in the area. On the other hand, the significance of the for forage fishing. the reduced tourism. Environmental destinations, on the northern dimension is emphasised as traffic in the Baltic other hand, are doing better as tourism and thereby traffic Sea is restricted. TOURISM AND RECREATIONAL USE volumes decrease. The arctic sea is a sweet spot of tourism, but stricter STATE OF THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT regulation negatively affects the pricing of flights, among MARITIME INDUSTRY AND MINERALS Noise in the maritime area increases with the emphasis on other things, and thereby the foreign tourist volumes. The The high demand for minerals increases investments on northern ports. The intention is to safeguard the produc- growth of tourism relies on increased domestic travel and the mineral industry. The prices of metals increase and the tion of critical minerals found in the northern maritime attracting Swedish and Norwegian tourists to take a tour profit margins of steel mills improve, which in its part rais- area, which also affects the state of the marine environ- of the Bay of Bothnia. Cruise travel in the Bay of Bothnia es investments on these. Sand is extracted from the sea in ment. Hydraulic engineering increases in the Finnish invites people as a safe cruise route. The significance of the Bay of Bothnia. The increased dredging and hydraulic Defence Force practice area, port areas and near electrici- nationally important shooting and practice areas is em- engineering impact the state of the marine environment. ty transmission cables, which has a negative effect on the phasised in the tense situation (such as Vattajanniemi in Maintaining and improving the condition requires substan- state of the marine environment. Kokkola’s Lohtaja). tial monitoring and sanctions. 40 Scenario 3 Northern Sea of Bothnia, the Kvarken and the Bay of Bothnia

Impacts of scenario 3 SECTORS MSP’S OBJECTIVES

Fishing and Tourism, recreation Maritime transport Good condition of the People’s well-being IMPACTS Energy Blue growth aquaculture and cultural heritage andindustry sea and participation

• Transfer costs may be • Insufficient feed poses • Income from tourism • Access to northern re- • The relatively calm • Powerful growth in • The reduction of in- high if the population a risk to fish farming. remains low, resourc- gions becomes more operating environ- the demand for do- vestments decreases becomes centralised es are reduced. difficult with the un- ment and rather good mestic fish threatens employment. but production is • Other activities certainty of transport condition of the Bay the sustainability of • Democracy declines decentralised. threaten the preser- (e.g. is there access of Bothnia attract new the fishing industry. and the opportuni- • Challenges caused by vation of the cultural through the Denmark kinds of operators • Conflicts between the ties to participation the coordination of heritage. Strait?) whose risks may not new operators may decrease. necessarily be known. defence interests and • The Finnish Defence arise in the northern • Reduced opportuni- energy production. Force area in Vatta- • Increased utilisation maritime area. ties for recreation due ja may restrict other of sea sand causes • Termination of Rus- to the closed areas. traffic. harmful effects to the sian transition trans- RISKS • A nuclear power sta- environment. port would be a hard tion causes risks. • Increased popula- blow for the Kokkola tion in the coastal cit- harbour. iescauses risks to the • International trade in environment. the region is challeng- • The growth in logistics ing and the economic increases the risk of situation gets poorer. accidents at sea and causes more dredging of fairways and the related impacts. • Achieving a better • New opportunities • Development of • With the biggest ten- • Local, clean energy • Interests of sever- • The northern area is overall certainty of arise in fish farming. small-scale tourism sions concerning the production increases. al new operators on safer than the rest of supply in the EU is • The value of fish activities is possible. Gulf of Finland and • Natural values get the sea may allow Finland, which is re- possible. increases. • Closed areas may southern Baltic Sea, stronger in the areas synergies. flected in well-being. the safer northern • As a result of EU’s en- • Using Baltic herring as protect the cultural used by the Finnish • Increased maritime • Sense of community ergy policy, subsidis- heritage. maritime areas at- Defence Force. tourism becomes pos- and social networks a foodstuff increases. tract investments. ing synergies and new • The tour of the Bay sible thanks to the grow stronger. forms of energy is of Bothnia is devel- safe operating envi- • Increase in domes- OPPORTUNI- possible. oped into a tourism ronment in the north. tic production brings TIES destination. • Shipping and harbour more opportunities. • Development of op- operations focus on portunities for tour- the Gulf of Bothnia ism and recreation due to safety reasons. supports the population and the preservation of infrastructure in the coastal region. Impacts of scenario 3 identified in the workshops for Northern Sea of Bothnia, the Kvarken and the Bay of Bothnia region. 41 Compiled scenarios Maritime area future table Alternative developments of central uncertainties

The volume Congested Baltic Tourism International Moderate energy Ineffective Baltic Sea Radical change Changing fish Strong of maritime Sea concentrates in trade transition environmental weakens (heavy rainfall, population and concentration logistics (new security the biggest cities (global markets in (offshore wind policy (eutrophication floods, major steady increase on the increases at the policy situation, around the Baltic the Baltic Sea) power under (large-scale and oxygen loss seasonal variation) of aquaculture metropolis,port companies’ terms climate refugees) Sea the terms of offshore wind aggravate) (large units cities die down (logistics networks (increased cruise companies, no power projects optimal, with (big cities expand, of the companies) tourism, interest in subsidised grid cannot be started) profitable immigration) the culture) connections, small locations) farms near the shore)

Reduced Baltic Sea of New tourists find Ecological End of Profitable and Improved Moderate change Flourishing Increased environmental peace the Baltic Sea footprint steers combustion and green condition of the (climate change leisure fishing popularity of the effects of (focal point of archipelago consumption electrification (new business maritime area has no significant and strict archipelago maritime security politics is (increased (local production (subsidised grid under the terms of (successful effect on the regulation of (transition of work logistics elsewhere) popularity of and consumption, connection of responsibility) reduction of load weather) aquaculture life, living in many (circular nature tourism) new technological offshore wind and recovery of (return of Baltic places, people economy, local solutions) power, farms the sea) herring as food, seek access to production,small further out on the fish farming on the pure nature) volume transport) sea) ground in closed water systems)

Uncertain and Increased Tourism in Stronger Energy Greener through The status stays Significant Sea as a Biggest coastal centralised tension in the the Baltic Sea cooperation unionformed regulation poor changes breadbasket cities keep their maritime Baltic Sea area becomes more within the EU byinfrastructure (strong role of the (blue-green (effects of climate (fish as vitality logistics (cooperation more difficult (EU sticks projects EU and the state algae blooms and change reflected environmentally (ageing population (strategic difficult, hybrid (less recreational together in the (moderate in protection) nutrient load) on the Baltic Sea) friendly mass moves to nearby importance influencing) use of the midst of global increase of production, fish cities) of fairways is maritime area) protectionism) offshore wind as replacement of emphasised) power in meat) restricted areas)

Developments emphasised in scenario 1 Developments emphasised in scenario 2 Developments emphasised in scenario 3

43 Illustration of scenarios

Archipelago Sea and Southern Northern Bothnia Sea, Gulf of Finland part of Bothnia Sea Quark and Bothnia Bay

Scenario 1

Scenario 2

Scenario 3