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Vintersjöfartsforskning STYRELSEN FÖR VINTERSJÖFARTSFORSKNING WINTER NAVIGATION RESEARCH BOARD Research Report No 57 Risto Jalonen, Kaj Riska, Samuli Hänninen A PRELIMINARY RISK ANALYSIS OF WINTER NAVIGATION IN THE BALTIC SEA Sjöfartsverket Sjöfartsverket Finland Sverige Finnish Maritime Administration Swedish Maritime Administration ISBN 951-49-2098-8 Edita Prima Oy, Helsinki, 2005 FOREWORD In its report no 57, the Winter Navigation Research Board presents the study to assess the risk involved with winter navigation in the Baltic Sea. The study was carried out by Mr. Risto Jalonen, professor Kaj Riska and Mr. Samuli Hänninen from the Technical University of Helsinki. This information can be used in the development of rules and recommendations for the safety of winter navigation in the Baltic Sea area. The Winter Navigation Research Board warmly thanks Mr. Risto Jalonen, Mr. Samuli Hänninen and professor Kaj Riska for this report, and the Ministry of Transport and Communications for financing the work. Helsinki February 2005 Markku Mylly A PRELIMINARY RISK ANALYSIS OF WINTER NAVIGATION IN THE BALTIC SEA Risto Jalonen, Kaj Riska & Samuli Hänninen HELSINKI UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY Ship Laboratory Espoo, December 2004 PREFACE The purpose of this risk analysis is to assess the risk involved with winter navigation on the Baltic Sea. The basis for this work was laid in the second meeting of HELCOM’s Ice Expert Working Group in Helsinki, 17-18 June, 2003. This risk analysis is carried out in the period of autumn 2003 – winter 2004 by the Helsinki University of Technology as commissioned by the Finnish Ministry of Transport and Communications and the Finnish Maritime Administration. 1 CONTENTS PREFACE 1 CONTENTS 2 BASIC TERMINOLOGY 4 ABBREVIATIONS AND SYMBOLS 6 1 INTRODUCTION 7 2 METHOD 10 2.1 OBJECTIVE ....................................................................................................................................10 2.2 APPROACH ....................................................................................................................................10 2.3 SCOPE.............................................................................................................................................10 3 ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ON THE BALTIC SEA 13 3.1 GEOGRAPHICAL CONDITIONS OF THE BALTIC SEA AREA ...................................................13 3.2 TEMPERATURE CONDITIONS.....................................................................................................17 3.3 WIND CONDITIONS ......................................................................................................................19 3.4 ICE CONDITIONS ..........................................................................................................................23 4 WINTER NAVIGATION SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN BALTIC SEA 31 4.1 TRAFFIC PATTERNS AND DISTANCE TRAVELED IN ICE ........................................................31 4.2 THE PRINCIPLES OF THE WINTER NAVIGATION SYSTEM .....................................................34 4.3 FINNISH-SWEDISH ICE CLASS RULES .......................................................................................35 4.4 OTHER ICE CLASS RULES............................................................................................................37 4.5 TRAFFIC RESTRICTIONS..............................................................................................................38 4.6 ICEBREAKER ASSISTANCE ..........................................................................................................45 4.7 ICE PASSPORT...............................................................................................................................53 5 HAZARD IDENTIFICATION OF WINTER NAVIGATION 54 5.1 GENERAL........................................................................................................................................54 5.2 ACCIDENTS AND INCIDENTS OF WINTER NAVIGATION........................................................56 5.2.1 ICE DAMAGE OF HIP HULL ..............................................................................................56 5.2.2 RUDDER DAMAGE ..............................................................................................................74 5.2.3 PROPELLER DAMAGE ........................................................................................................75 5.2.4 MACHINERY DAMAGE........................................................................................................78 5.2.5 OTHER DAMAGE .................................................................................................................79 5.2.6 ICING.....................................................................................................................................80 5.2.7 GROUNDING ........................................................................................................................82 5.2.8 COLLISION............................................................................................................................86 5.2.9 DISCUSSION .........................................................................................................................91 5.3 WINTER NAVIGATION HAZARDS IDENTIFIED BY AN EXPERT GROUP ................................95 6 RISK ASSESSMENT 101 6.1 GENERAL METHODS..................................................................................................................101 6.2 ACCIDENTS AND THEIR FREQUENCY IN WINTER NAVIGATION ........................................102 6.3 ICE DAMAGE RISK ASSESSMENT .............................................................................................105 6.3.1 HULL ICE DAMAGE RISK ASSESSMENT: Frequency......................................................108 6.3.2 HULL ICE DAMAGE RISK ASSESSMENT: Consequences................................................111 6.3.3 PROPELLER ICE DAMAGE RISK ASSESSMENT: Frequency ..........................................117 6.3.4 PROPELLER ICE DAMAGE RISK ASSESSMENT: Consequences ....................................119 6.3.5 RUDDER ICE DAMAGE RISK ASSESSMENT: Frequency................................................119 6.3.6 RUDDER ICE DAMAGE RISK ASSESSMENT: Consequences ..........................................120 6.3.7 RISK ASSESSMENT OF MACHINERY DAMAGE IN ICE: Frequency ..............................120 6.3.8 RISK ASSESSMENT OF MACHINERY DAMAGE IN ICE: Consequences.........................120 6.3.9 COLLISION RISK ASSESSMENT: Frequency.....................................................................121 2 6.3.10 COLLISION RISK ASSESSMENT: Consequences: ...........................................................126 6.3.11 GROUNDING RISK ASSESSMENT: Frequency ...............................................................129 6.3.12 GROUNDING RISK ASSESSMENT: Consequences .........................................................131 6.3.13 RISK ASSESSMENT OF ICING: Frequency & Consequences..........................................133 6.4 RISK CONSEQUENCES IN WINTER NAVIGATION...................................................................134 6.5 RISK ACCEPTANCE CRITERIA ..................................................................................................138 6.6 NEW RISK MODEL FOR THE WINTER NAVIGATION SYSTEM...............................................140 7 RISK CONTROL OPTIONS 144 7.1 RESTRICTIONS TO TRAFFIC......................................................................................................146 7.2 ICEBREAKER ASSISTANCE ........................................................................................................147 7.3 ICE CLASS ....................................................................................................................................149 7.4 ICE CHARTS & WEATHER REPORTS ........................................................................................150 7.5 OIL SPILL COMBATTING RESOURCES ....................................................................................150 7.6 FIREFIGHTING EQUIPMENT ....................................................................................................152 7.7 OTHER OPTIONS.........................................................................................................................153 8 RESULTS 8.1 RISK OF A FATAL ACCIDENT....................................................................................................155 8.2 RISK OF POLLUTION..................................................................................................................157 8.3 RISK OF TOTAL LOSS .................................................................................................................158 8.4 RISK OF OTHER DAMAGE .........................................................................................................159 9 SUMMARY 160 10 RECOMMENDATIONS 162 11 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 163 12 REFERENCE 164 APPENDICES 173 3 BASIC TERMINOLOGY The following glossary is collected from several sources, including (DNV 2002, Hammer 1972, IMO 2002, Kaplan 1997, Storey 1996, Suokas and Rouhiainen, 1993, TSB 2002, Webster 1996). Accident: An unintended event involving fatality, injury, ship loss or damage, other property loss or damage, or environmental damage. Accident scenario: A sequence of events starting from the initiating event to one of the final stages of the accident. Collision: An impact between two or more vessels. The object of the impact
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