A STUDY OF

WATER CONSUMPTION AND SUPPLY PATTERNS

IN THE CITY OF REGINA:

CONSERVATION STRATEGIES IN THE FACE OF CLIMATE CHANGE

A Thesis

Submitted to the Faculty of Graduate Studies and Research

In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements

for the Degree of

Master of Arts

in Geography

University of Regina

by

Mauricio Jimenez Salazar

Regina, Saskatchewan

February, 2008

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FACULTY OF GRADUATE STUDIES AND RESEARCH

SUPERVISORY AND EXAMINING COMMITTEE

Mauricio Jiminez Salazar, candidate for the degree of Master of Arts in Geography, has presented a thesis titled, A Study of Water Consumption and Supply Patterns in the City of Regina: Conservation Strategies in the Face of Climate Change, in an oral examination held on January 17, 2008. The following committee members have found the thesis acceptable in form and content, and that the candidate demonstrated satisfactory knowledge of the subject material.

External Examiner: Dr. Norman Henderson, Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative

Co-Supervisor: Dr. David Gauthier, Department of Geography

Co-Supervisor: Dr. Joseph Piwowar, Department of Geography

Committee Member: *Dr. David Sauchyn, Department of Geography

Chair of Defense: Dr. Monika Cule, Department of Economics

''Not Present at defense ABSTRACT

Regina is one of the few cities in the Canadian prairies not located on the banks of, or relatively close to, a major water system. In comparison, other major cities in

Saskatchewan have access to an immediate water resource, such as the South

Saskatchewan River for Saskatoon and the North Saskatchewan River for the cities of

North Battleford and Prince Albert. Therefore, water supply has been an important issue for Regina since early times. This study analyses and describes the water consumption patterns of the city since 1981 and examines some climatic factors in relation to their effect on summer water demands. A regression model with two independent variables

(maximum temperatures and total precipitation) was used to explain water use in the city during the summer months of 1997 - 2004. The overall conclusion of the research is that summer water consumption in Regina is linked significantly to climatic factors such as maximum temperature and total precipitation.

This study also explores possible impacts of global warming on the water availability on the prairies, and therefore the water supply for the City of Regina.

Climate change scenarios for the future in North America were used to project changes in temperature and precipitation for the years 2050 and 2100. For 2050, the model predicts a change in temperature of 1.5°C ± 2.5°C in the prairie region of Canada. By 2100, these changes could be up to 1.5°C ± 3.5°C. One of the primary impacts of these climatic changes will be a reduction in water availability. If projected climate changes occur, city water supplies are going to be significantly affected.

When facing reductions in the available water resources, water conservation practices and strategies play an important role for the survival of prairie cities. A water

ii demand management approach has been put in practice in Regina since the late 1980s.

The main water conservation strategies used in the city are also described in this thesis. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

I want to extend my deep gratitude and appreciation to supervisors Dr. David

Gauthier (Vice-President Research and International and Professor of Geography,

University of Regina) and Dr. Joseph Piwowar (Canada Research Chair in Geomatics and

Sustainability and Professor of Geography, University of Regina) for their assistance and support towards the preparation of this thesis.

I also want to thank Mr. Randy Burant (Water Technologist, Engineering and

Works Department of the City of Regina) for his help with the collection and interpretation of much of the data used in this research.

The investigation was supported in part by a SSHRC grant of Dr. David Gauthier, different assistantship appointments in the Geography Department at the University of

Regina, funding from the Faculty of Graduate Studies and Research, University of

Regina and Research Assistant appointments at the Canadian Plains Research Center

(CPRC).

IV TABLE OF CONTENTS

Abstract ii

Acknowledgments iv

Table of Contents v

List of Figures vii

List of Tables ix

1. Introduction 1

1.1 GOAL 2 1.2 OBJECTIVES 3 1.3 STRUCTURE OF THE DOCUMENT 4 2. Literature Review 5

2.1 GENERAL INTRODUCTION 5 2.2 WATER VISION 5 2.3 WATER MANAGEMENT 6 2.3.1 Water Management in Saskatchewan 7 2.3.2 Alberta Water Management Framework 9 2.3.3 Examples of Water Management Programs in the United States 10 2.4 WATER CONSUMPTION IN GENERAL 11 2.4.1 Water Consumption in Canada 12 2.4.2 Water Consumption in Regina 14 2.5 WATER CONSERVATION IN REGINA 16 2.6 CLIMATE CHANGE 17 2.6.1 The IPCC Assessments of Climate Change 18 2.6.2 Climate Change in Canada 21 2.6.3 Climate Change Effects and Water Conservation 23 3. Study Area 25

3.1 CITY OF REGINA, SASKATCHEWAN 25 3.2 LOCATION 26 3.3 DEMOGRAPHICS 27 3.4 CLIMATE 28 3.5 REGINA'S FUNCTION IN THE PROVINCE 28 4. Methods 29

4.1 INTRODUCTION 29 4.2 OBJECTIVE 1 34 4.3 OBJECTIVE 2 36 4.4 OBJECTIVE 3 38 4.5 OBJECTIVE 4 40 4.6 OBJECTIVE 5 41 5. Results 41

5.1 CONSUMPTION AND SUPPLY OF WATER 41 5.1.1 24-year (1981 - 2004) trend analysis of average annual water consumption and average annual water consumption by sectors in the City of Regina 42

V 5.1.2 8-year (1997 - 2004) trend analysis of water consumption and production (Supply) for the City of Regina 46 5.1.3 8-year (1997 - 2004) trend analysis of water consumption during the summer months (June, July and August) for the City of Regina 50 5.2 STATISTICAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN WATER CONSUMPTION AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES / TOTAL PRECIPITATION 52 5.2.1 Analysis of variance (ANOVA) on Water Consumption versus Maximum Temperatures and Total Precipitation presented in the City of Regina during the summer months, 1997 - 2004 52 5.3 CLIMATE CHANGE MODELS 59 5.4 WATER CONSERVATION POLICIES AND PROGRAMS IN THE CITY OF REGINA 63 6. Discussion and conclusions 67

6.1 WATER CONSUMPTION 67 6.1.1 Water consumption, 1988-2004 67 6.1.2 Water use by sectors, 1988-2004 69 6.1.3 Total municipal water consumption and supply, 1997 - 2004 73 6.1.4 Summer water consumption, 1997 - 2004 74 6.2 SUMMER WATER CONSUMPTION AND WEATHER VARIABLES 75 6.3 CLIMATE CHANGE, WATER AVAILABILITY AND CONSUMPTION 76 6.4 RECOMMENDATIONS 77 6.5 FOR FURTHER STUDY 82

References 84

Appendix A 92

Appendix B 100

Appendix C 103

VI LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 2.1 The five main water users in Canada 1996. Source: Brandes and Ferguson 2003 13

Figure 2.2 Municipal water use by sector in Canada, 1999. Source: Brandes and Ferguson 2003 14

Figure 2.3 Comparison of Water consumption (megalitres per year) and population, 1981 - 2004. Source: City of Regina 1993 15

Figure 2.4 Average maximum temperatures and average total precipitations June, July and August. 1997 - 2004 for the City of Regina. Source: Environment Canada 2005 15

Figure 2.5 Total annual water consumption by sector, 1981 - 2004. Source: City of Regina 17

Figure 2.7 Comparison between modeled and observations of temperature raise (°C), 1860 - 2000. Source: IPCC, 2001a 20

Figure 2.8 Annual temperature trends, 1901 - 2003. Source: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) 2005 21

Figure 2.9 Observed trends in mean surface air temperature in Canada expressed as temperature change (°C), 1950 - 2004. Source: CCCma 2006 22

Figure 3.1 The Palliser's Triangle. Adapted from: Lemmen et al. 1997 26

Figure 3.2 Age structure, for both sexes, Regina Census Metropolitan Area. Source: Statistics Canada 2007a 27

Figure 3.3 Regina's Ethnic Diversity. Source: Statistics Canada 2007b 27

Figure 4.1 Water supply and consumption data sets, City of Regina 29

Figure 4.2 Regina and region water system. Source: City of Regina 2005 32

Figure 4.3 Regina water system. Source: City of Regina 2005 33

Figure 5.1 Comparison of water consumption (ML per year) and population, 1981 - 2004. Source: City of Regina data 42

Figure 5.2 Regression between water consumption (ML per day) and population, for two different periods 1981 - 1988 and 1989 - 2004. Source: City of Regina data 43

Figure 5.3 Per capita water consumption, litres per day per person, 1981 - 2004. Source: City of Regina data 44

Figure 5.4 Average annual water consumption, ML per year by sectors, 1981 - 2004. Source: City of Regina data 45

Figure 5.5 Annual average water consumption and production (supply) of the city, ML per day, 1997 - 2004. Source: City of Regina data 46

Vll Figure 5.6 Annual patterns of water consumption, average ML per day, 1997 - 2004. Source: City of Reginadata 47

Figure 5.7 Water consumption and production (supply), mean ML per day, year 1997. Source: City of Reginadata 48

Figure 5.8 Water consumption and production (supply), mean ML per day, year 1998. Source: City of Reginadata 48

Figure 5.9 Water consumption and production (supply), mean ML per day, year 2003. Source: City of Reginadata 49

Figure 5.10 Average summer months water consumption and supply comparison, ML per day, 1997 - 2004. Source: City of Regina data 50

Figure 5.11 June, July and August water consumption patterns, average ML per month, 1997 - 2004. Source: City of Reginadata 51

Figure 5.12 Average maximum temperatures and average precipitations for the summer months of June, July and August, 1981 - 2004. Source: City of Regina data 51

Figure 5.13 Correlation between water consumption, maximum temperatures and precipitation. June, July and August, 1997 - 2004. Source: City of Regina data 52

Figure 5.14 Water consumption (ML per day) and maximum temperatures, June, July and August, 1997. Source: City of Regina data 53

Figure 5.15 Water consumption (ML per day) and total precipitation, June, July and August, 1997. Source: City of Regina data 54

Figure 5.16 Water consumption (ML per day) and maximum temperatures, June, July and August, 2000. Source: City of Regina data 56

Figure 5.17 Water consumption (ML per day) and total precipitation, June, July and August, 2000. Source: City of Reginadata 56

Figure 5.18 Water consumption (ML per day) and maximum temperatures, June, July and August, 2003. Source: City of Regina data 58

Figure 5.19 Water consumption (ML per day) and total precipitation, June, July and August, 2003. Source: City of Reginadata 58

Figure 5.20 Pessimistic scenario: Projected changes in 5 year mean surface air temperature (°C) in 2000 - 2050 and 2000 - 2100 relative to 1981 - 2000 as simulated by CGCM3/T47 in the IPPC SRES A1B. Source: CCCma 2006 60

Vlll Figure 5.21 Optimistic scenario: Projected changes in 5 year mean surface air temperature (°C) in 2000 - 2050 and 2000 - 2100 relative to 1981 - 2000 as simulated by CGCM3/T47 in the IPPC SRES Bl. Source: CCCma 2006 61

Figure 5.22 Pessimistic scenario: Projected changes in 5 year mean precipitation rate (mm/day) in 2000 - 2050 and 2000 - 2100 relative to 1981 - 2000 as simulated by CGCM3/T47 in the IPPC SRES MB. Source: CCCma 2006 62

Figure 5.23 Optimistic scenario: Projected changes in 5 year mean precipitation rate (mm/day) in 2000 - 2050 and 2000 - 2100 relative to 1981 - 2000 as simulated by CGCM3/T47 in the IPPC SRES Bl. Source: CCCma 2006 63

Figure 6.1 Residential indoor water use distribution. Canada 1999. Source: Harmony Foundation of Canada 2002; Brandes and Ferguson 2003 70

Figure 6.2 Regina's volume rate/m3 in water and wastewater against water total municipal per capita water consumption per day. Source: City of Regina 2005 and City of Regina data 80

IX LIST OF TABLES

Table 5.1 ANOVA for regression of water consumption, maximum temperatures and total precipitation, year 1997 55

Table 5.2 ANOVA for regression of water consumption, maximum temperatures and total precipitation, year 2000 57

Table 5.3 ANOVA for regression of water consumption, maximum temperatures and total precipitation, year 2003 59

X 1. INTRODUCTION

History shows the important role that water has played in the development of cultures, societies and cities. The adaptation of complex systems that allow human settlements to access water resources has highly influenced landscapes, economies and cultures since the dawn of civilization (Kaika and Swyngendouw 2000).

Despite the importance of this natural resource, it has been taken for granted by many societies until the last two or three decades (American Water Works Association

2003). Canada has not been an exception in this matter. However, the general belief of an unlimited abundance of water is no longer as accepted as it was in the past. Increasing water demands throughout the country have necessitated the development of more efficient resource management approaches, such as demand management, in contrast to the traditional supply side approach (Brandes and Ferguson 2003).

Water use in Canada is generally separated into five major categories: thermal power generation use, manufacturing use, municipal use, and agricultural and mining use.

Municipal water uses account for about 12% of the total water used in Canada (Harmony

Foundation of Canada 2002). Environment Canada relates problematic current water overuse patterns in some cities and towns throughout Canada with environmental and socio-economic conditions (Wittrock et al. 2001).

Typical water uses are withdrawal, conveyance, distribution, application, discharge, and reuse (Buchmiller et al. 2000). Those types of uses are strongly influenced by environmental, economic, behavioural, management and other natural and human society-based systems, as well as by the quality and quantity of the available water.

1 Water shortages during 1994-1999 were reported in about 26% of Canadian municipalities with water systems (Environment Canada 2003a, 30). Some of these shortages were due to seasonal droughts, problems in infrastructure and continuing increases in consumption rates. Technological, educational and regulatory, and economic measurements have been adopted in most Canadian cities and towns to cope with these kinds of problems.

Seasonal changes in urban water demands are present in almost all Canadian cities and towns (Wittrock et al. 2001; Brandes and Ferguson 2003). Some of these changes are due to some degree to the fluctuations of weather variables during summer months. There is little doubt that the climate is changing (IPCC 2007). Increases in mean temperatures and enhanced variability of seasonal precipitation can impact the sustainability of human activities. Changes in the climate-water supply relationship represent a risk that can be assessed through measurements to ensure future water resources for Canadian cities.

1.1 Goal

The goal of this research is to assess the implications of possible changes in water supply and consumption in Regina, based on past and current patterns of water uses and predicted changes and impacts from climate change.

To address this goal, patterns of water supply and consumption in Regina are characterized. Annual trends in total water consumption and production (supply), and water consumption and production (supply) trends for the summer months are assessed.

Climate change scenarios and their possible impacts in water consumption and water supply are described. Also, an objective of this research is to assess the capability of the city's water conservation policies and programs in dealing with possible changes and

2 impacts in the water resources available for the city. This study quantifies water use

(consumption), supply (production), shows the trends of water use and supply over time, and describes water conservation measures and possible changes in water availability arising from climate change. It is important to point out that this research does not attempt to describe water quality or to explain impacts of climate change on water quality. Further research on water quality issues is important, but beyond the scope of the present study,.

1.2 Objectives Specific objectives of this study are to:

1) to characterize the past and the current supply and consumption of water in

Regina;

2) to explore apparent links between water supply and consumption and climatic

variations;

3) to review climate change scenarios for the geographic region, identifying those

that reflect increases in temperature and a decrease or no change in precipitation,

and discuss the potential impacts of those changes on the water supply for Regina;

4) to review the City of Regina's water conservation policies and programs and

assess their effectiveness; and

5) to assess strategies for water conservation in Regina across a range of possible

water shortages.

3 1.3 Structure of the Document

Chapter 2 describes the past and present water use in Canada and Regina. It reviews water conservation policies and programs and the predictions of climate change scenarios on water use. Chapter 3 provides a brief characterization of Regina, the study area, according to location, geographical characteristics, origins and actual function in

Saskatchewan. Chapter 4 explains the methods used within the research, the main resources consulted and the procedures to achieve each of the specific objectives.

Chapter 5 provides the results of the research, quantifying the water supply, water consumption, population of the city and water consumption by sectors. Chapter 6 provides a discussion of the results, an evaluation of present water conservation strategies in the city, and a comparison of related activities in other cities with similar geographical conditions. Recommendations, conclusions, limitations of the research, and future research possibilities are assessed and discussed in Chapter 6.

4 2. LITERATURE REVIEW

2.1 General Introduction

Over 60% of the population of the planet is expected to be living in urban areas by the year 2030 (WWAP 2001). The issue of the impact of growing populations in cities and towns, in relation to increasing demand for resources to satisfy human needs, has been a major concern for urban planners and decision makers. The demand and supply of fresh water resources in urban centres is one of those concerns.

In many parts of the planet there is a growing scarcity of fresh water available to meet human demands. About 1.1 billion people in the world do not have access to clean drinking water systems and around 2.4 billion people do not have access to appropriate waste management systems. Lower social classes in developing countries are the most affected, especially children under 5 years old (UNESCO-WWAP 2003, 11).

Postel (2000), as cited by Brandes and Ferguson (2003, 10), claims that by 2025 the population growth in the world will cause an increase of about 70% in water consumption

(based on the use of accessible freshwater resources). Such an increase would be a threat to the integrity of aquatic ecosystems around the world and contribute to species extinctions as well as the increase of water scarcity around the planet.

2.2 Water Vision

To address issues of world water scarcity, a United Nations Water Conference held in Dublin, Ireland (UNEP 1992) outlined the then emerging international consensus on water management by creating a statement of the main principles of water management:

5 • water is a social good;

• water is an economic good;

• water management ought to be participatory and integrated; and

• women play an important role in water management.

To make effective these general principles, water managers and decision makers have identified applied strategies to help in the achievement of these principles (WWAP

2001, 3).

2.3 Water Management

One of the main changes that has occurred in the management of water resources worldwide and at the local level (cities and towns) has been the shift from the supply management approach to the demand management approach. The supply management approach addressed water needs by increasing water supplies to match the water demands. However, there was a lack of flexibility in this approach when dealing with water shortages, the deterioration of infrastructure, the shortage of capital for repair, and predictions that a changing climate would significantly impact water resource systems.

In response to gaps in the supply management approach, water demand management developed as the product of several intellectual and scientific bases (Tate

1989; Meakin 1993; and Maas 2003). Increased understanding of factors underlying resource scarcities, and greater acceptance of conservation as a part of sustainable development have marked the path for appropriate water demand side approach. The recognition of a water crisis in the world was a significant step in the developing of water conservation strategies and demand management programs. The following are some brief

6 descriptions of water management in the prairies (Saskatchewan and Alberta) and some examples of water management in the United States.

2.3.1 Water Management in Saskatchewan

In Saskatchewan, Saskatchewan Environment has the mandate to regulate municipal waterworks and all privately owned but public accessible waterworks that have a flow rate of 18,000 litres or more per day (Laing 2002). Some of Saskatchewan

Environment's principal objectives are; to undertake and coordinate research and planning in relation to water quality and water pollution in the province; to maintain regular consultation with Saskatchewan Wetland Conservation Corporation (SWC); sustain close contact with the Prairie Provinces Water Board and any other like organizations; also to obtain, collect, process, and store data on the quality of water resources in the province; to support and carry out research on water quality, water resources and water treatment; enter and coordinate agreements for the collection, processing and reporting of water quality data and as well as to make available to the public and any organization or agency in the province information related to quality of water resources.

Besides its regulatory role in providing safe drinking water in the province,

Saskatchewan Environment has responsibilities with respect to protection and management of water sources (surface and ground water). Those activities are carried out in conjunction with other water authorities in the province. The Saskatchewan Watershed

Authority (SWA) was created to manage and protect water quantity and quality. It is a component of the government's Long-Term Safe Drinking Water Strategy, and combines the water management components from Saskatchewan Water Association (SaskWater),

7 Saskatchewan Environment and the SWA to focus on water management (Saskatchewan

Environment 2003; SWA 2006)

SWA is responsible for the distribution of ground and surface water, as well as the analysis of water sources. It also administrates and manages all water infrastructure including operations and planning and the maintenance of provincially owned water management infrastructure (SWA 2006).

The Saskatchewan Watershed Authority's mandate is;

"...to develop watershed and aquifer management plans, deliver stewardship programs to protect our water resources, provide public education programs; plan water-based developments considering the potential effects of flood, drought, climate change and their potential effect on source water quality, provide forecasts of stream flow and water levels and direct the operations of water management structures in the province..." (SWA 2006).

Saskatchewan Health participates in the government's Long-Term Safe Drinking

Water Strategy through the health regions by regulating semi-private waterworks, mainly on-site small waterworks. It is also in charge of monitoring biological, chemical and physical properties of the water in the provinces (Government of Saskatchewan 2003, and Health Canada 2003, 21)

Many regulations, strategies, policies and frameworks have been adopted by governments to enhance the quality of drinking water and to protect and conserve water quality, quantity and aquatic ecosystems (Kinkead Consulting 2006). Saskatchewan's Water

Management Framework vision is one of safe and reliable water supplies within healthy and diverse aquatic ecosystems (Saskatchewan Environment 1999). Its basic principles are:

• stewardship; a principle of ethic for the present and future generations.

8 • partnership; among all levels of government and citizens in developing and

implementing water management solutions.

• recognition of water as an economic good; full-cost pricing for the supply of water.

• sustainability; supported by the government in all of its instances.

• best practices; adoption and implementation of new and effective technologies.

2.3.2 Alberta Water Management Framework

Another particularly interesting case of a Canadian water management strategy has been developed by the province of Alberta. In 2003, the "Water for Life: Alberta's

Strategy for Sustainability" was released by the Government of Alberta as a framework to develop a new water management approach (Government of Alberta 2003). The project involved a consultation process between 2001 and 2002 consisting of three basic steps: a) ideas generation; b) public outreach and consultation; and c) a Minister's Forum on Water to review the results from the previous steps.

After the final report from the Minister's Forum, the development of a framework and recommendations began between Alberta Environment and a government-working group. As a result of that process, a clear set of principles was established. During the extensive consultation process the province identified three main goals for the provincial water strategy; first, to secure safe drinking water supply; second, to ensure healthy aquatic ecosystems and last to guarantee reliable, quality water supplies for a sustainable economy

The framework stressed the importance of Albertans developing partnerships among stakeholders, government institutions and the community as a means of achieving

9 the holistic and environmental approach and the principles for water management and sustainability.

2.3.3 Examples of Water Management Programs in the United States

The experiences in Metropolitan Boston, New York and Denver on sustainable water management are specific examples of re-focusing the management of water supply.

In these cities in the 1970s, water managers began shifting their planning focus away from their long-standing reliance upon supply augmentation, towards a more efficient management of the existing resources. One of the main foci was the reduction of water demand. The Massachusetts Water Resources Authority (MWRA) in Boston has succeeded in reducing per-capita water demand by at least 16% since 1988 (Piatt and

Morrill 1997).

In New York City, several water conservation strategies were established such as the adoption of the Universal Water Metering Program in 1986, the introduction of water- saving showerheads; sink faucets and low-flush toilets, together with public education and energy conservation incentives. Similar approaches were adopted in Denver including water metering for all Denver homes and a more efficient use of water for irrigating public landscape areas.

These examples show that there is no single specific formula in dealing with water demand and watershed/water quality management. Some strategies achieve better results than others, depending on the water system (Piatt and Morrill 1997), geographical location (Longo and Yoskowitz 2002), and characteristics of the population (Faruqui et al. 2001).

10 From the regional and national strategies to international strategies, water management and conservation approaches need to consider the participation of individuals at all levels. Experiences throughout the world show that it is possible to deal with the problems of preserving water resources without compromising the supply for present and future generations.

2.4 Water Consumption in General

Water consumption (water use) consists of withdrawal, conveyance, distribution, application, discharge, and reuse interwoven in a complex web of interrelated pathways and activities (Buchmiller et al. 2000). These uses are strongly influenced by environmental, economic, behavioural, management and other natural and human society-based systems, as well as by the quality and quantity of the available water.

To understand the behaviour of a specific sector of water use and to assist in the development of water conservation strategies, water use can be divided into categories for different purposes. For example, some categories separate water use into domestic use, industrial and/or public use, while others use selections such as residential use, commercial use and industrial use.

Water use in any of these categories can present variations according to a diverse number of factors. According to the American Water Works Association (2003), some of the major factors are; time of the day and day of the week, reflecting variations present in a 24-hour period, which may be due to the hour of the day (e.g. water use is higher during the afternoon hours in general), or the day of the week; also, climate and season, water use is higher during the summer months when it is hot and dry. There is also an indirect effect of geographical location (e.g. water use rates in tropical countries are

11 steady during the whole year, with normal variations day to day); type and size of the community, the type of household can present important variations in water use rates depending on composition and age structure of the household as well as the size of the lawns and gardens and the type of residences (individual households or apartment buildings) and at last, metering, in some communities the price of water is a flat rate and does not reflect the actual amount of water used during a specific period of time. The installation of a meter can have a significant impact on water use rates because the individual can monitor the amount of water consumed and the actual price paid.

2.4.1 Water Consumption in Canada

Water demands in Canada's urban centres are increasing. A remarkable increase of

50% took place from 1972 to 1986 (Environment Canada 2001). However, the average of per capita residential water use in Canada appears to have stabilized between 330 and 350 litres per day.

Residential demands account for just over half of total municipal water use

(Brandes and Ferguson 2003). As withdrawals and the concomitant wastewater discharges intensify, municipal finances and local aquatic ecosystems are subjected to growing pressures.

12 Mining

Agriculture

M unicipal*

Manufacturing

Thermal power generation

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

M ain water user in Canada

Figure 2.1 The five main water users in Canada 1996. Source: Brandes and Ferguson 2003. * Includes rural domestic use (2%)

In Figure 2.1 the five major water users in Canada during 1996 are presented, revealing how some uses require much more water than others. For example, thermal power generation withdrawals are almost five times more than manufacturing withdrawals. Besides fuel, water is the most important component in thermal power generation, because it is required to cool the wasted heat to the temperature where it can be released safely into the environment.

As showing in Figure 2.1, in 1996 Canadians used about 12% of water for municipal activities. Environment Canada includes in this sector all residential, commercial and public uses (Figure 2.2). Although domestic water use is a relatively small proportion of overall water use in Canada, the average daily domestic water use for

Canada was the second highest in the world in 1999 (Region of Peel, 2004; Environment

Canada 2005). In that year Canadians consumed 335 litres of water per person per day, in daily domestic activities, about 150 litres more than many European countries, approximately 135 and 185 litres more than Sweden and France, respectively.

13 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

M unicipal water use by sector

Figure 2.2 Municipal water use by sector in Canada, 1999. Source: Brandes and Ferguson 2003.

"Canada may have enough water for future needs. However, water management must be based on a thorough knowledge of the resource. Canadians must consider water as a national resource, and take into account the needs of the people and all sectors of the economy" (Matthews and Morrow 1986).

2.4.2 Water Consumption in Regina

The main source of water for Regina is Buffalo Pound Lake, a shallow lake in the

Qu'Appelle river system (Diaz et al. 2002). The water supply from that river system is augmented by water from other water systems in the surrounding area.

Brandes and Ferguson (2003) describe Regina as having one of the lowest total municipal per capita daily water uses in Canada, at only 395 litres. In contrast, Montreal residents used 1,287 litres.

In the period 2000 - 2004 Regina's population numbers were stable at 190,000 inhabitants (City of Regina 1993). During those years the city had an average annual consumption of water of about 77 megalitres per day (ML/d).

14 ML Population

45,000 - 195,000

190,000 40,000 .---•"

35,000 - ..--'"' 185,000 180,000 30,000 - 175,000 25,000 i- , 170,000 20,000 i .** ,- ' 165,000 15,000 160,000 10,000 155,000

5,000 - 150,000

I ^ H3,UUU 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002

-Total Consumption (ML) --- - - • Population

Figure 2.3 Comparison of Water consumption (megalitres per year) and population, 1981 - 2004. Source: City ofRegina 1993.

Figure 2.3 shows an overall reduction in water consumption during the last 17 years. Recently, however, there were slight increases of about 11% in 2001 and 2003 when water consumption rates were about 30,000 ML. These coincide with increases in average summer temperatures during the same years (Figure 2.4).

100 n

Mean-Total Summer Precipitation

M ean-M aximum Summer Temperature

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Figure 2.4 Average maximum temperatures and average total precipitations June, July and August. 1997 - 2004 for the City ofRegina. Source: Environment Canada 2005.

15 2.5 Water Conservation in Regina

The City adopted a Water Conservation Program in the late 1980s that has been in effect, with modifications, to the present. The City's water conservation efforts have been positive, as reflected in a 32% reduction in total water consumption from 1988 to 2004

(City of Regina 2004).

The initial Water Conservation Program was enhanced in 1991 adopting additional conservation strategies such as (City of Regina 1993); water conservation information through the media, education in schools and institutions, such as libraries and community centres; workshops and speaking engagements; retrofit projects and case studies; networking projects with suppliers, water users and retailers; promotions and "give aways" of flow restrictors and retrofit kits; and surveys to measure program effectiveness and target conservation activities

The 2005 Water Conservation Program focuses on communicating the message "Save

Water, Save Money" (City of Regina, 2004). The goals for 2005 focus on education for water users, the use of Ultra Low Flow (ULF) toilets and the full implementation of the

Automated Meter Reading (AMR).

The water conservation strategies used during the past years such as an outdoor watering schedule, the Xeriscape workshops, communication activities and enclosing water use efficiency tips with water and sewer bills, will continue to be promoted during the 2004 - 2005 period (City of Regina 2004).

The City of Regina is responsible for providing water to residential, industrial and commercial customers in the city as well as its own Parks Department. The City also

16 provides some water to citizens outside the city. Figure 2.5 represents the major sectoral distribution of water consumption in Regina.

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003

® Residential DCommerciai/lndustrial • Other

Figure 2.5 Total annual water consumption by sector, 1981 - 2004. Source: City of Regina.

2.6 Climate Change

The World's average climate has been changing as a product of natural and induced causes (Saunders 1999; Harvey 2004). Increases in greenhouse gas emissions from human activities have caused an irregular increase in the average temperature of the planet.

Scientists continue to develop tools for measuring changes in the Earth's climate.

Many institutions and research centres have created representations of past and possible future climatic conditions. Figure 2.6 is an estimation of the mean global surface temperatures (1880 - 2004) developed by the United States National Oceanographic and

Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) based on 1961 - 1990 estimates from the

University of East Anglia's Climate Research Unit (UEA - CRU). Of particular note is

17 o

9^ Lf\^\ Y^^WyAf^

~- 5-year mean

1880 1900 1920 S40 1960 1980 2000

Figure 2.6 Global mean temperature over land and ocean, 1880 - 2004. New NOAA surface temperature. Source: NOAA Satellite and Information Service 2006.

the observation that mean global surface temperatures began to rise above the 1961 —

1990 norm in the late 1970s. The temperature has increased by 0.6°C - 0.7°C since the late 19th century and by 0.4°C over the past 25 - 30 years (Saunders 1999. 3466).

Saunders (1999) points out that the evidence of global warming is most clear between

1910 and 1940 and since the mid 1970s.

2.6.1 The IPCC Assessments of Climate Change

The Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) was established in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment

Programme (UNEP) (IPCC 1999). The IPCC assesses and reports on available information on the science, impacts, and economic implications of climate change on the planet. The IPCC has developed a wide range of climate change scenarios for the past and future decades. Representations of changes in the climate since the mid 1900s are subject to the question of whether or not these changes have been the product of natural or human (anthropogenic) causes.

18 Figure 2.7 is a comparison between modeled and observed temperature changes for the period 1860 - 2000 (IPCC 2001a). The results indicate a major relationship between modeled temperature and anthropogenic forcing (Figure 2.7(b)). It is thought this forcing is a result of growing industrialization and its consequences, such as the release of CO2 and human produced aerosols into the environment during the last century. There is a better match for the whole period, however, when natural and anthropogenic elements are aggregated (Figure 2.7 (c)).

The IPCC (2007), in the Fourth Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on

Climate Change, concluded that; global mean surface temperatures increased by about

0.74°C ± 0.18°C during 1906 - 2005. Global mean surface temperature has risen at almost double the rate than 100 years ago. Mean surface temperature is increasing at a higher rate in inland regions than those in the oceans. In general, precipitation has increased during the 1900 - 2005 period over high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. And, increases of extreme precipitation events have been noted during the 1900 - 2005 period.

19 (a) Natural 1.0

1850 1900 1950 2000 Year

(b) Anthropogenic 1.0

1850 1900 1950 2000 T ©cil

(c) Alt forcings

1.0 1 i o •i model — observations =| 0.5 , f 1 I f - 11 1 \'r'Ffot J- 1 WPV • :

-1.0 1850 1900 1950 2000 Year

Figure 2.7 Comparison between modeled and observations of temperature raise (°C), 1860 - 2000. Source: IPCC, 2001a.

Warming has not occurred evenly around the planet. There is evidence that some places have cooled (Hare 1995, 10-28; Saunders 1999). The US National Oceanographic

20 and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) state that increases in annual temperatures have happened in larger proportions in mid- to high-latitude (40° N to 70° N) land areas in the Northern Hemisphere (Figure 2.8).

• •••• ••••• ""DV, ~*t\« ~3\m ~£\m " 1 VP VVC I V- iiV J>V *Hfc»> JV, DegCyCentury

Figure 2.8 Annual temperature trends, 1901 - 2003. Source: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) 2005.

2.6.2 Climate Change in Canada

The Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) of

Environment Canada provides a wide range of climate change scenarios to facilitate the study of climate change variability and to better understand the various processes that govern the climate system. The common approach consists of conceiving a mathematical model able to reproduce the main physical and thermo-dynamical characteristics of the climatic system.

21 The CCCma has performed simulations using the Canadian Regional Climate

Model (CRCM) from the Universite du Quebec a Montreal (UQAM). These simulations are driven by the Second and Third Generation Coupled Global Climate Model

(CGCM2/3) outputs following the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC)

Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) (CCCma 2006).

In Canada, average winter temperatures have warmed by more than 2°C over much of the west but have cooled slightly along the east coast since the mid 1900s (Harvey

2004). These variations are stronger from south to north. The southern parts of Canada have had less warming than the more northern areas (Figure 2.9).

Figure 2.9 Observed trends in mean surface air temperature in Canada expressed as temperature change (°C), 1950 - 2004. Source: CCCma 2006.

22 2.6.3 Climate Change Effects and Water Conservation

Assessments of the impacts of climate change are particularly important for urban areas because of potential vulnerability of large concentrations of people within those centres. Canadian prairie cities are highly vulnerable to climatic impacts because of their geographical location relative to their mid-continental climate; a climate that has high inter-annual variability and considerable extremes, such as floods and droughts (Wittroch etal. 2001).

The consequences of climate change on urban water resources have been studied relative to impacts on the complex infrastructure and systems of water supply (Koshida et al. 1997; Wittrock et al. 2001; Brandes and Ferguson 2003). Those studies have focused on the reliability of water yields from reservoirs related to changes in water inflows as a result of climate change impacts, and the capacity of urban water systems to meet increasing demands for water in the face of water scarcities resulting from climate change impacts.

Studies have also focused on socio-economic, physical and ecological impacts.

Such as described by Roger (1994); "... Climate change on water resources, both quantity and quality, will be felt through shifts in the availability of the resource and in shifts in demand for the resource. In addition to these direct effects there are also secondary impacts of socio-economic change, which will impact the aquatic system which, in turn, will impact upon climate, and which in turn will influence water availability. Climate will also directly influence economic uses of land and water use, which will influence water availability and so forth".

There are many changes in climate variables that can cause the described consequences. Most of them are physical changes that can be measured and analyzed by climate change modeling. Some of these variations were pointed out by Adams and Peck

23 (2006); increases in average annual and seasonal temperatures, changes in the length of seasons, longer hot and cold periods, shift in the seasonality of precipitation, more intense and frequent (form and timing) precipitations and higher evaporation rates.

Measuring these climate variations is accomplished through established methodologies. However, the challenging part of any climate change assessment methodology relates to the uncertainty in estimates of the economic and social input data required to provide reliable forecasts into the future (Schwarz and Dillard 1990). Thus impacts of climate change on urban water resources are hard to forecast because of the difficulty in linking socio-economic and biophysical variables and also because human settlements vary in their economic and social patterns. Scientists argue that to sustain current urban lifestyles, mitigation of climate change impacts will be insufficient and that adaptations to reduce vulnerability are necessary (Kulshresthna et al. 2002).

The prairies are home to some of the most vulnerable Canadian ecosystems.

CCIAD (2002, 36) states that climate change and its potential impacts on water resources in the prairies could be well seen in the changes of annual stream flow, increased aridity and likelihood of severe drought, increases or decreases in irrigation demand, and variations in water availability and quality. The quantity and quality of stream water on the prairies is significantly affected by climate change and global warming. Longer and hotter summers will increase evaporation and reduce water levels in lakes and rivers

(Environment Canada 2003a). As a consequence, the demands on groundwater could also increase requiring Saskatchewan residents to use water resources even more wisely.

24 3. STUDY AREA

3.1 City of Regina, Saskatchewan

The province of Saskatchewan was established in 1905 and one year later the City of Regina, with a population of just 3,000, became the capital city of the province. The location of the city is not optimal in regard to access to water resources. During the early years of the construction of the Canadian Pacific Railway, the local Wascana Creek was dammed with the purpose of using its water for railway engines and transportation related activities. Wells around the city had to be dug to provide for the people. In 1905, the city was pumping water out of existing wells in Boggy Creek to satisfy the demand

(Saskatchewan Council for Archives and Archivists 2004).

Water-born diseases appeared in Regina's early years due to the lack of proper sewage facilities. Although the first sewer systems were installed in 1891, Regina suffered a serious typhoid epidemic in 1892 due to yet uncontrolled dumping of waste in the surrounding areas (Saskatchewan Council for Archives and Archivists 2004). By

1913 the construction of a more modern sewer system was underway.

The need to ensure the availability of clean drinkable water supply to Regina and

Moose Jaw led to the development of the Buffalo Pound Water Treatment Plant in the

1950s.

During the next decades the Regina's water demands increased every year along with the population of the city. To address the increasing consumption, a Water

Conservation Program was established in 1985 and further enhanced in 1991 (City of

Regina 2005). The main goals of the program were to reduce the average per capita water consumption and the peak day water use.

25 3.2 Location

The City of Regina is located in the south central area of Saskatchewan at 50° 26'

North Latitude and 104° 40' West Longitude (Figure 3.1). Regina is set within the boundaries of Palliser's Triangle and is located in the northern region of the Great Plains of North America (Longo and Yoskowitz 2002). The city covers an area of 118.66 km with a mean elevation of 577 metres above sea level (Environment Canada; National

Climate Archive 2004a).

Figure 3.1 The Palliser's Triangle. Adapted from: Lemmen et al. 1997.

26 3.3 Demographics

In 2006, Regina had a population of 179,246 a population increase of 0.6 % since

2001 (Statistics Canada 2007a). The city had a population density of 1,507.9 persons per km2. The median age1 in the city is 37.3 (males 35.9; females 38.6). The median household income in the city was $46,847. Age structure (2006) and ethnic diversity

(2001) are represented in Figures 3.2 and 3.3, respectively.

13.0 % ttnv.

• 0-14 • 15-64 • 65 and over

Figure 3.2 Age structure, for both sexes, Regina Census Metropolitan Area. Source: Statistics Canada 2007a.

m Caucasian m Aboriginal • Chinese • Other

85.7 %

Figure 3.3 Regina's Ethnic Diversity. Source: Statistics Canada 2007b.

1 The median age is an age Y, such that exactly one half of the population is older than Y and the other half is younger than Y (Statistics Canada 2007a).

27 3.4 Climate

Regina is located within the Prairie Ecozone of Saskatchewan which covers one- third of the province (Saskatchewan Environment and Resource Management 1998). The climate of the Prairie Ecozone varies from semiarid to humid continental, with long and cold winters, short and very warm summers with cyclonic storms. Almost all the area surrounding the city is cropland, grain being the major crop (Saskatchewan Environment and Resource Management 1998).

Summer seasons are relatively short, with average daily temperatures ranging from

12° C to 26° C in July. Winter seasons are long are daily temperatures range from -11° C to -22° C in January. The average annual precipitation is approximately 364 mm with

June and July as the wettest months (Environment Canada 2005).

3.5 Regina's function in the province

Several farm land, oil and gas wells and mineral mines are located near the city which has been an important resource in Regina's economy (City of Regina 2004).

Regina's development has benefited to some degree from being the capital city of the province. In spite of this, the city has underperformed in some aspects (Regina and

District Chamber of Commerce 2003). The decrease in the city's population between

1996 and 2001 is attributed to a high level of emigration and a low level of immigration due to a wide range of job opportunities elsewhere (Regina and District Chamber of

Commerce 2003).

28 4. METHODS 4.1 Introduction

The City of Regina's Water Engineering Division of the Engineering and Works

Department provided data for this research on water supply and water consumption within the city. Figure 4.1 explains the nature and time line of the data sets acquired.

1. Daily. Total Wafer Production

2. Daily Total Water Type of Consumption and Data and Production Time Covered

1. Annual Total and Per Capita Water Consumption by Sectors

4. Daily Maximum Temperature and Precipitation

1981 1991 1997 2004

Figure 4.1 Water supply and consumption data sets, City ofRegina.

1. Daily Total Water Production (Supply): Shows the daily water supplied from

the Buffalo Pound Water Treatment Plant (BPWTP) (Figure 4.2) and city wells.

2. Daily Total Water Consumption and Production (Supply): These data include

the "Flow Meter", that is the amount of water pumped from the Pumping Stations

(Figure 4.3) into the distribution system representing the water consumed during a

specific period of time, in this case daily consumption. Total consumption is the

amount billed by Client Billing and is based on meter readings and only for those

29 customers that were metered. Typically, throughout the year the City used to, on

average, read less than half of the water meters in use and the rest were

estimated. Also, there are a number of water uses that are not metered and thus

do not show up in the billing. Some of these non-metered uses are parks

watering, water and sewer main flushing, fire fighting training, hydrant permits,

and leaks. This data set also includes daily water supplied from the BPWTP and

city wells.

3. Water Consumption Year 1981 - 2004: This data set provides water

consumption in megalitres (ML) by residential and commercial/industrial sectors

of the city in the form of annual records for 1981 - 2004. The water per-capita

consumption represented in litres per day (1/day) is provided in annual records for

the same period of time.

4. Maximum Temperatures and Precipitation: These are daily records from

Environment Canada recorded from the station at the Regina Airport.

Latitude: 50° 25' N

Longitude: 104° 40' W

Elevation: 577.30 m

Climate ID: 4016560

To match the period of water consumption data available from the City of Regina, temperatures and precipitation records use in this research are only since the 1980s.

Residential sector includes that infrastructure that withdraws water for houses, apartment buildings, seniors homes and others. Commercial and industrial sector refers to those facilities that withdraw water for commerce, business, administration, production or

30 manufacture of goods. The parks consumption category includes not metered but estimated usage for parks irrigation and related activities. The unaccounted water category is a percentage estimated by subtracting metered water consumption and estimated parks consumption from water produced. This category includes leakage and other water losses. Customers outside the city include residential and commercial customers outside Regina.

The City of Regina Water Management Department estimated that around 49% of city's water is consumed for residential purposes and around 34% for other uses such as commercial and industrial activities. Data on water production (from Buffalo Pound

Reservoir and the well fields) and customer consumption records from 1988 to 1990 were used by the City of Regina to estimate consumption percentage for those years. Those percentages are used in this research to estimate the water consumption by the same sectors for the period of time in question from 1981 to 2004, making the assumption that those percentages remain the same.

31 Legend

Waiai Supply ___ Wastewater —— Treatment Plants i^p

Figure 4.2 Regina and region water system. Source: City ofRegina 2005.

32 10 POUND LAKE

BOGGY CREEK WELL FIELD

Supply System Distribution System

1. Service Connection (Curb Box) 2. Watermain

Figure 4.3 Regina water system. Source: City ofRegina 2005.

33 4.2 Objective 1 To characterize the past and the current supply and consumption of water in

Regina.

For ease and better understanding of the data, this objective has been divided into three sections. The methods for attaining each component of this objective are described as follows.

4.2.1 24-vear (1981 - 2004) trend analysis of average annual water consumption and average annual water consumption by sectors in Regina.

The City of Regina provided annual data by sectors from 1981 - 2004. It is an estimation of the percentage of the city's population that falls into a specific economic sector.

Data on water production (from Buffalo Pound Reservoir and the Well Fields) and customer consumption records from 1988 to 1990 were used by the City of Regina to estimate consumption percentage of those years (City of Regina 1993). These percentages are used in this thesis to find the water consumption by the same sectors for the period 1981 to 2004, on the assumption that those percentages remain the same. An interview with the Water Engineering Division in the city confirms that the above assumption provides the closest data available to an actual classification by sectors. Total per capita consumption is a calculation from the water consumption records for the same period of time.

34 4.2.2 8-year (1997 - 2004) trend analysis of water consumption and production (Supply) for the City of Regina.

Available water is the amount of treated water from treatment plant and pumping stations, ready to be used. Data available from the City of Regina shows the total amount of water produced by Buffalo Pound and by city wells. These data are considered to be the amount of water available to supply the city's water needs. The data from the City of

Regina on water consumed and supplied are daily records. They were aggregated to produce monthly and annual estimates of supply. Monthly estimates were plotted to assess monthly variations within and among years. Estimates of annual water supply are assessed for annual variations.

4.2.3 8-year (1997 - 2004) trend analysis of water consumption during the summer months (June, July and August) for the City of Regina.

The Water Engineering Division of the Engineering and Works Department of the

City of Regina has data on daily water consumed by the whole city. After reviewing the data for the summer months separated for each year, errors within the data were identified. The errors were inconsistencies between the amount of water supplied and the amount consumed by the city during the same day.

The origin of the inconsistencies for the days when the city apparently used more water that the water produced, could be attributable to a number of factors, for example, faulty metering/reporting, estimated rather than metered water usage, and data incorrectly entered.

35 In order to correct these anomalies two approaches were taken: (1) data were excluded for those days where the anomalies occurred; and/or (2) data were adjusted so that the amount of water consumed would be equal to the water produced for that day, since it is not possible to use more water than is supplied and in storage for that day.

Since in some months the number of days in which anomalies were present was quite significant the two approaches were combined. The days when the differences in between water consumed and water produced were above 10 ML were excluded from the research. For those days when the differences were less than 10 ML, the data was adjusted to an equal amount, to the amount of water consumed in all the cases. This procedure excluded 6 or 7 days of each month or about 20% of the data in one month.

The inconsistencies described above were relatively easy to identify. While it is possible that errors still exist in the remaining data, there is no reliable means of checking for possible errors and all reanalyses suggest that they are reliable (Burant, Randy, pers. comm. 2005).

4.3 Objective 2 To explore apparent links between water supply and consumption and climatic

variations.

Possible annual and seasonal variations in water consumption and supply during the period 1997 - 2004 are the product of many factors such as longer or shorter seasons, climatic variables (e.g. temperature, precipitation and evaporation) and a wide array of human factors. However, variations during the summer months are most likely also linked to climatic conditions. The purpose of this objective in the research is to identify a

36 possible relationship through a statistical analysis of the level of dependence on water consumption and maximum temperatures and precipitation during the summer months.

Multiple regression was used to calculate the variation of a dependent variable based on linear combination of independent variables, according to the formula:

Multiple Regression Equation (4.1)

E(y)=b0 + M^) +b2 (x2)

Then:

Water consumption is identified as the dependent variable y, and maximum temperatures xiand precipitation X2 are identified as the independent variables.

An analysis of variance (ANOVA2) was used to identify the statistical relationship

(coefficient of multiple determination R ) between water consumption in Regina and weather conditions during the summers.

The hypotheses for the F test are:

H0: fti = 02 = Q water consumption is independent of maximum temperature and

total precipitation

Ha: Pi and/or 02 is not equal to zero water consumption is dependent on maximum

temperature and total precipitation

2 Instat Plus for Windows version 3.030. Statistical Service Centre. University of Reading, UK

37 After running the multiple regression equation (Formula 4.1) a test of overall significance validates the estimations of the analysis of variance and rejects or accepts the hypotheses.

The calculated F-value is compared to tabulated values to determine if the given hypothesis should be accepted or rejected (Anderson et al. 2003).

Test Statistic

F value = MSR (4.2) MSE

Rejection Rule

Using test statistic: Reject H0 if F value > Fa

Where Fa is based on the F distribution table with p degrees of freedom in the numerator and n-p-1 degrees of freedom in the denominator (Anderson, et al. 2003).

4.4 Objective 3 To review climate change scenarios for the geographic region, identifying those that

reflect increases in temperature and a decrease or no change in precipitation, and

discuss the potential impacts of those changes on the water supply for Regina.

General Circulation Models (GCMs) are tools developed to help the understanding of climatic change. As models, however, GCMs are subject to uncertainties and limitations. The Third Generation Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM3) used by the

IPCC, and the T47 version of the model was used for this research to project possible

38 climate change scenarios (CCCma 2006). It has a surface grid spatial resolution of roughly 3.75 degrees of latitude and longitude and 31 levels in the vertical with four ocean grid cells underlying every atmospheric grid cell. The CGCM3 has been shown to be robust and responsive to a variety of input scenarios (CCCma 2006).

The Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) carries out simulation with CGCM3.1 for three emission scenarios, SRES A1B, SRES A2 and SRES

Bl, and for the committed scenario.

Extreme scenarios are the SRES A2 (worst case scenario) and the Committed (best case scenario). The other two scenarios represent less extreme situations trending from a bad case scenario (SRES A1B) to a better case scenario SRES Bl. Only SRES A1B and

SRES B1 were used in this study.

The storyline and scenario family description for these scenarios is as follows

(CCCma 2006; Houghton 2004):

SRES A1B describes a future world of very rapid economic growth, low population increase, fast introduction of newer and more efficient technologies. This scenario emphasizes the gap in regional development originated by differences in per capita income. A1B is distinguished from the other Al scenarios because its balance in energy sources (level of use of fossil energy).

The SRES Bl scenario describes a convergent world with the same population increases as in A IB, but with faster changes in economic structures toward a service and information economy, with reductions in material intensity, and the introduction of clean and resource efficient technologies. It emphasizes global solutions to economic, social,

39 and environmental sustainability, including improved equity, but without additional climate initiatives.

The time frames selected to represent the climate change scenarios were 2000 -

2050 and 2000 - 2100, merely as a result of the availability of the data and for ease of comparison with most climate change models that mainly use these time frames for their scenarios. A period of 100 years is mostly used to project possible climate change as a relation to the existing most accurate climatic records of the past century. Therefore, these time frames represent an advantage when dealing with planning for the future and taking in consideration possible impacts of climate change. A disadvantage of using these time frames is that the most of planning Regina does is within shorter time frames. Such as the case of the Regina Development Plan (City of Regina 2006) that goes as far as

2016 or 2020 in some cases.

It is important to note that the results produced from using a single GCM, as in this case, are somewhat narrowed due to restricted greenhouse gas scenarios that produce a limited range of possible outcomes as well as the narrow chance for specific outcomes, that can lead to partial understanding of climate forecasts.

4,5 Objective 4 To review the City of Regina's water conservation policies and programs and assess

their effectiveness.

A literature review of water conservation and water management policies and programs was conducted for the period 1980 - 2004.

40 A description of past and present water conservation programs is included; origins, strategies, date of implementation and progress. Also, a description of major institutes and organizations involved in water management and conservation in the province and in

Regina is included.

4.6 Objective 5 Assess strategies for water conservation in Regina across a range of possible water

shortages.

Assessing water conservation strategies in Regina involved analysis of water supply and consumption data. It also included the interpretation of the current and possible situations of water availability and water demand relative to climate change scenarios, and assessing a variety of existing and potential water conservation programs.

5. RESULTS

5.1 Consumption and Supply of Water

The first objective of this research was to characterize past and current consumption and supply of water in the City of Regina. As described in Chapter 4, three approaches were adopted. First, the annual trends in total water consumption and production for 1981

- 2004 were assessed. Second, annual trends in water consumption and production for the period 1997 - 2004 were assessed. Finally water consumption throughout the summer months was assessed.

41 5.1.1 24-year (1981 - 2004) trend analysis of average annual water consumption and average annual water consumption by sectors in the City of Regina.

Total annual water consumption within Regina and annual per capita water consumption during 1981 - 2004 are shown in Figures 5.1 through 5.3. Water consumption by sectors (residential, commercial/industrial, parks consumption, unaccounted-water and customers outside the city) is shown in Figure 5.4 for the same period. The data available for 1981 - 2004 reflects only the annual amount of water consumed by the major sectors of the city.

Figure 5.1 shows water consumption during the period 1981 - 2004 relative to changes in the population of Regina.

MLVYear Population

45,000 i T 195,000

•---••••_ 40,000 ,.-•- 190,000

185,000 35,000 ,--'''' 180,000 30,000 .-••.-^K— - 175,000 25,000 - # 170,000 20,000 - #, ' 165,000 15,000 - 160,000

10,000 - 155,000

5,000 - 150,000

0 J h- 145,000 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002

i oiai v_KjnsumpiiL>ri ^IVILJ • • •

Figure 5.1 Comparison of water consumption (ML per year) and population, 1981 2004. Source: City of Regina data.

Figure 5.1 shows increasing water consumption in the early 1980s, peaking in 1988 and a subsequent decline through the mid-1990s to a stable level throughout the late

42 1990s and into the early 2000s. During that same time period, population showed a relatively steady increase. Overall, average annual water consumption decreased about

32% between 1988 to 2004. During the late 1980s, water consumption in the city showed a 24% increase in comparison with water consumption in 1981, peaking in 1988 at

39,719 megalitres/year (ML).

Figure 5.2 shows a correlation of water consumption relative to population for two different periods: 1981 - 1988 and 1989 - 2004. 1981 - 1988 represents a time period prior to the introduction of specific water conservation policies and programs in Regina.

The rise in population was about 10% during the period 1981 - 1988 and 7.4 %, for the later period. The regression analysis for 1981 - 1988 shows a positive relationship between water consumption and population growth. The coefficient of determination (R2) for the 1981 - 1988 shows a positive relation of about 63%, indicating that increases in the consumption of water was somewhat correlated to increases in population. The R2 for 1989 - 2004 shows a negative relationship suggesting that consumption was no longer a positive link to population numbers.

120 n R2 = 0.6343 100

80 to § eo ^ FT = -0.4185

40

20

o 160,000 165,000 170,000 175,000 180,000 185,000 190,000 195,000 Population

• 1981-1988 • 1989-2004 • -Linear (1981-1988) Linear (1989-2004)

Figure 5.2 Regression between water consumption (ML per day) and population, for two different periods 1981 -1988 and 1989 - 2004. Source: City of Regina data.

43 Water consumption in litres per person per day is shown in Figure 5.3. Increase in per capita consumption from 1981 through 1988 peaked in 1988 with a subsequent decline towards 1993 and a relatively steady pattern is presented until the early 2000s where some fluctuations appear again.

600 ]

500 CO Q ^1 400

200 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993

—•—Total Per Capita Consumption (LVDay)

Figure 5.3 Per capita water consumption, litres per day per person, 1981 - 2004. Source: City ofRegina data.

Figure 5.4 show categories of water consumption in the city by sectors during the period 1981 to 2004. Residential use in Regina includes single-family residential households. The residential sector constitutes the highest consumer of water with about

49%, followed by the commercial/industrial sector with 34% (Figures 5.4(A) and 5.4(B)).

Commercial use includes water used by business establishments, public offices, and institutions, and also includes industrial water use which is defined as water used in the production process of manufactured products, and related activities. Water consumption

44 for parks, estimated from 1988 to 1990, accounted for about 4% of the total amount of water used (Figure 5.4(C)).

(A) Residential (B) Commercial/Industrial

, , ML 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000

2003 : (C) Parks (D) Unacco unted Water 2001 : 1999 : 1997 : 1995: 1993 : 1991 : 1989 : 1987: 1985 : 1983 : 1981 : , ML , , , , , ML 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000

Figure 5.4 Average annual water consumption, ML per year by sectors, 1981 - 2004. Source: City ofRegina data.

Unaccounted water (leakage and other water losses) averaged 13% of the water consumed (Figure 5.4(D); City of Regina 1993). Unaccounted water is estimated by subtracting metered water consumption and estimated parks consumption from water produced. Customers outside the city include commercial and residential customers who account for around 4% of the total water used.

45 5.1.2 8-year (1997 - 2004) trend analysis of water consumption and production (Supply) for the City of Regina.

Data on water production (supply) available for this research covers the period 1997

- 2004, and represents daily data collected at the water treatment plant in Buffalo Pound.

These data allow a comparison between the amount of water consumed and produced and identification of those years or periods of time in which the limits of water available for the city were almost reached. Since the data presented for this period were recorded daily, the data were aggregated by months and years for ease of study.

Figure 5.5 characterizes the water consumption and supply of the city from 1997 -

2004. Water consumption in Regina has been relatively constant during some years while presenting high variations in others. Water supply and consumption for years 2001 and

2003, contrasts with the rest of the years reaching levels above 80 ML per year during both years. There was a reduction on water consumption from 1997 to 2000 of 2.6%, followed by 12.2% increase to the year 2001. Water consumption dropped from an average of 81.2 ML in 2001 to 72.6 ML in 2002, a decrease of 10.6%.

80 >. CO D 78

5 76

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 D Consumption Reduction

Figure 5.5 Annual average water consumption and production (supply) of the city, ML per day, 1997 - 2004. Source: City of Regina data.

46 Figure 5.6 reflects the behaviour of water consumption for each year of the period of time in analysis. During winter months (January, February and March) of each year the water consumption in general represents a steady pattern. The exception is 1998 which has a water consumption rate lower than the general pattern. Notably, the summer months

(June, July and August) have greater fluctuations in water consumption, but in general the same pattern is reflected in most of the years. Higher water consumption fluctuations are evident in summer 2003, especially during late July and August. Water consumption from October through December is very steady although the year 1997 reflects patterns lower than those of the other years.

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Figure 5.6 Annual patterns of water consumption, average ML per day, 1997 - 2004. Source: City ofRegina data.

Figures 5.7 through 5.9 show the 1997 and 1998 consumption (and supply) rates in relation to the 1997 - 2004 average.

During 1997 there is a steady relationship of water consumption and production throughout the whole year (Figure 5.7). These rates are generally comparable to the 1997

47 - 2004 average, lower water consumption and production rates for October through

December are very similar to the lower rates for the same months in 1998 (Figure 5.8).

i B97-2004MonthlyMeanConsumption to « , * • • l-«tf § 60 -•B97 M ean consumption -S97 M ean Production (supply)

January September November

Figure 5.7 Water consumption and production (supply), mean ML per day, year 1997. Source: City ofRegina data.

< 1997-2004 Monthly Mean Consumption - B98 Mean Consumption - 1998 M ean P roduction (supply)

January M arch M a July September November

Figure 5.8 Water consumption and production (supply), mean ML per day, year 1998. Source: City ofRegina data.

48 During January, February and March of 1998 the water consumption was lower than the general average (65.4 ML/Day) of all the years for these same months (Figure

5.8). However, August had greater average water consumption rates than the general average for the summer months (91.6 ML/Day).

Average water consumption rates during the summer of 2003 were much higher than the general average water consumption for the summer (Figure 5.9). Average consumption on June was 97.6 ML/Day or 6.5% more than the general monthly average for 1997 - 2004. Furthermore, the consumption of the months of July and August are

27% and 28% higher respectively than the general average for the summer (91.6

ML/Day).

120

mmmM 1997-2004MonthlyMean Consumption —A—2003 Mean Consumption —•— 2003 M ean Production (supply)

January

Figure 5.9 Water consumption and production (supply), mean ML per day, year 2003. Source: City ofRegina data.

49 5.1.3 8-year (1997 - 2004) trend analysis of water consumption during the summer months (June, July and August) for the City of Regina.

As shown above, the greatest deviations from the long - term average usually occur during summer months. This section focuses on water consumption specifically during the summer and includes maximum temperature and total precipitation data.

Mean consumption and production data for the summer months only are presented in Figure 5.10. The year 2000 had the lowest average consumption and production and

2003 had the highest water consumption over the period. In no year from 1997 to 2004, did consumption equal production.

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 ^Consumption • Production (supply)

Figure 5.10 Average summer months water consumption and supply comparison, ML per day, 1997 - 2004. Source: City of Regina data.

Figure 5.11 examines the summer consumption patterns on a monthly basis. The years after 2000 are more variable than those before. The month with the highest consumption rate over the 8 - year period studied was split between July and August.

50 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 I Consumption a Production (supply)

Figure 5.11 June, July and August water consumption patterns, average ML per month, 1997 - 2004. Source: City ofRegina data. Figure 5.12 shows the average maximum temperatures and average total precipitation for summer months (June, July and August) in the city between 1981 and

2004. Note that there is evidence of a relationship between temperature and precipitation variations. For those years when the precipitation was low, the temperatures tended to be high and vice versa, for example in 1993 and 2003.

Figure 5.12 Average maximum temperatures and average precipitations for the summer months of June, July and August, 1981 - 2004. Source: City ofRegina data.

51 5.2 Statistical Relationship between Water Consumption and Maximum Temperatures / Total Precipitation 5.2.1 Analysis of variance (ANOVA) on Water Consumption versus Maximum Temperatures and Total Precipitation presented in the City of Regina during the summer months, 1997 - 2004. An analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to identify the statistical relationship

(coefficient of multiple determination R ) between water consumption and maximum temperatures and total precipitation. The results reveal a significant degree of correlation between the variables for some years {e.g. 2003) and a non-significant correlation for some another years (e.g. 2000) (Figure 5.13).

0.7000

0.6000

0.5000

CD Jg 0.4000 CT CO (£ 0.3000 I 0.2000 I I

0.1000 I I I I I I I

0.0000 I I I I I 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Figure 5.13 Correlation between water consumption, maximum temperatures and precipitation. June, July and August, 1997 - 2004. Source: City of Regina data.

Year 2000 has the least correlation between variables, while 1997 and 2003 showed to some extent the strongest relationships. Consequently, the remainder of the analysis in this section focuses on the result for these three key years. The results from the other years are given in Appendix B.

52 Year 1997. Multiple Regression: Water consumption and maximum temperatures and precipitation in the City ofRegina.

Figures 5.14 and 5.15, show the maximum temperature and total precipitation relative to water consumption in the city during the months of June, July and August,

1997. In Figure 5.14, a close association between maximum temperature and the consumption of water in the city is evident. Water consumption tends to increase during hotter days and decrease when the temperatures were lower. Although not as striking, there is also a clear relationship between precipitation and water consumption (Figure

5.15).

1-Jun 8-Jun 15-Jun 22-Jun 28-Jun 5-Jul 15-Jul 21-Jul 28-Jul 6-Aug 12-Aug 18-Aug 23-Aug 29-Aug

3 Water Consumption —•—MaximumTemperatures

Figure 5.14 Water consumption (ML per day) and maximum temperatures, June, July and August, 1997. Source: City of Regina data.

53 1-Jun 8-Jun 15-Jun 22-Jun 28-Jun 5-Jul 16-Jul 21-Jul 28-Jul 6-Aug 12-Aug 18-Aug 23-Aug 29-Aug

a Water Consumption • Total Precipitation

Figure 5.15 Water consumption (ML per day) and total precipitation, June, July and August, 1997. Source: City ofRegina data.

For those days where the pattern of water consumption and maximum temperatures diverge the most, there is a direct influence of precipitation on water consumption. It is not possible from this analysis; however, to conclude that the influence of precipitation on water usage for the city is a direct day-by-day relationship since precipitation could affect water consumption over a number of days (e.g. a good rainfall would reduce the amount of lawn watering over several subsequent days).

As a result of the ANOVA can reject the null hypothesis and conclude that a reasonable relationship is present between flow meter (water consumption) and the two independent variables (maximum temperature and total precipitation). Further, the

ANOVA results show that approximately 53% of the variations in water consumption throughout the summer months during 1997 have an apparent link to changes in maximum temperatures and precipitation (Table 5.1).

54 Table 5.1 ANOVAfor regression of water consumption, maximum temperatures and total precipitation, year 1997. -Y VARIABLE 'Water Consumption' -INDEPENDENT VARIABLES 'Maximum Temperature' 'Precipitation'

ANOVA for regression of Water Consumption on Maximum Temperature and Precipitation Source df SS MS F value Prob>F

Regression 2 15515.9 7757.9 36.20 0.0000 Residual 65 13930.6 214.32

Total 67 29446.4

R2 = 0.5269 (adjusted = 0.5124) F test

Reject H0 if F value > Fa being a = .01

36.20 > 4.98

Year 2000. Multiple Regression: Water consumption and maximum temperatures and precipitation in the City ofRegina.

For the year 2000, water consumption in the City of Regina appears to be more

influenced by precipitation than by temperature (Figures 5.16 and 5.17). During this

period (1997 - 2004) the lowest water consumed by the city during the summer was in

2000. Moreover, 2000 was one of the wettest years in this period.

55 9-Jun 16-Jun 23-Jun 29-Jun 6-Jul 13-Jul 19-Jul 24-Jul 31-Jul 7-Aug 12-Aug 19-Aug 28-Aug

Water Consumption —*—Maximum Temperature

Figure 5.16 Water consumption (ML per day) and maximum temperatures, June, July and August, 2000. Source: City ofRegina data.

ML mm

140 r 40

35 120

30 100 A Aa 25 80 A^ X- •/\^ 20 60 15

40 10

20 5 i .I ii^ 1-Jun 9-Jun 16-Jun 23-Jun 29-Jun 6-Jul 13-Jul 19-Jul 24-Jul 31-Jul 7-Aug 12-Aug 19-Aug 28-Aug

• Water Consumption • Total Precipitation

Figure 5.17 Water consumption (ML per day) and total precipitation, June, July and August, 2000. Source: City ofRegina data.

As a result of the ANOVA (Table 5.2) the null hypothesis can be rejected and we conclude that a weak relationship is present between water consumption and the two

56 independent variables (maximum temperature and precipitation). Only about 28% of the changes in the water consumption during year 2000 have an apparent link to changes in maximum temperature and precipitation.

Table 5.2 AN OVA for regression of water consumption, maximum temperatures and total precipitation, year 2000.

-Y VARIABLE 'Water Consumption' -INDEPENDENT VARIABLES 'Maximum Temperature' 'Precipitation'

ANOVA for regression of Water Consumption on Maximum Temperatures and Precipitation

Source df SS MS F value Prob>F

Regression 2 4239.5 2119.7 12.57 0.0000 Residual 65 10962.9 168.66

Total 67 15202.4

R2 = 0.2789 (adjusted = 0.2567)

Ftest

Reject H0 if F value > Fa being a = .01

12.57 > 4.98

Year 2003. Multiple Regression: Consumption against Maximum Temperatures and

Precipitation in the City ofRegina.

In contrast to 2000, 2003 was the driest and hottest year during the period 1997-

2004 (based on average summer maximum temperature and precipitation). Close patterns of water consumption and maximum temperatures are evident in Figure 5.18. For those days where the temperatures were higher than average, the water consumption levels of

57 the city were also high. Precipitation during some days of these months also influenced the amount of water consumed (Figure 5.19).

1-Jun 8-Jun 14-Jun 21-Jun 30-Jun 6-Jul 14-Jul 22-Jul 30-Jul 5-Aug 13-Aug 20-Aug 27-Aug

"•—*—' Water Consumpt ion —•— M aximum Temperat ure

Figure 5.18 Water consumption (ML per day) and maximum temperatures, June, July and August, 2003. Source: City ofRegina data.

1-Jun 8-Jun 14-Jun 21-Jun 30-Jun 6-Jul 14-Jul 22-Jul 30-Jul 5-Aug 13-Aug 20-Aug 27-Aug

e Water Consumption • Total Precipitation

Figure 5.19 Water consumption (ML per day) and total precipitation, June, July and August, 2003. Source: City ofRegina data.

58 Based on the ANOVA results (Table 5.3), the null hypothesis is rejected and it can be concluded that according to the coefficient of determination a significant relationship

is present between water consumption and maximum temperature and precipitation.

About 59% of the changes in water consumption during 2003 have a link to changes in temperature and precipitation during the summer months of this year (Table 5.3).

Indicating that perhaps when precipitation averages are low and temperatures are high,

water consumption is likely to go up.

Table 5.3 ANOVA for regression of water consumption, maximum temperatures and total precipitation, year 2003.

-Y VARIABLE 'Water Consumption' -INDEPENDENT VARIABLES 'Maximum Temperature' 'Precipitation'

ANOVA for regression of Water Consumption on Maximum Temperatures and Precipitation

Source df SS MS F value Prob>F

Regression 2 14897.8 7448.9 52.89 0.0000 Residual 74 10421.3 140.83

Total 76 25319.1

R2 = 0.5884 (adjusted = 0.5773)

Ftest

Reject H0 if F value > Fa being a = .01

52.89 > 4.98

5.3 Climate Change Models When making projections about the future, climate models incorporate the past,

present and future emissions of greenhouse gases (IPCC 2001b). Based on emission

59 scenarios from the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) the CCCma has developed possible future climate change scenarios. For example, Figure 5.20 shows the projected changes in the 5-year mean surface air temperature (°C) in North America and

Canada in 50 - year time steps. These plots show the major warming over land areas and

Polar Regions than over the oceans. For year 2050 the model predicts a change in temperature of 1.5°C ± 2.5°C in the prairie region of Canada. By year 2100 prairie temperatures could increase by 2.5°C ± 3.5°C.

Temperature anomaly (°C) year 2050 Temperature anomaly (°C) year 2100

Figure 5.20 Pessimistic scenario: Projected changes in 5 year mean surface air temperature (°C) in 2000 - 2050 and 2000 - 2100 relative to 1981 - 2000 as simulated by CGCM3/T47 in the IPPC SRESA1B. Source: CCCma 2006.

More optimistic simulations show changes in temperature between 1°C ± 2°C for

2050 and between 1.5°C ± 2.5°C for 2100. Nonetheless, the same pattern of warming is present indicating that inland areas are going to warm faster than oceans and the polar regions will warm faster than other regions (Figures 2.8 and 2.9).

Differences in the simulations are the product of the SRES storylines and the scenario family to which the simulations belong to (IPCC, 2001b). Each simulation

60 integrates a wide range of key future characteristics. SRES A1B, in Figure 5.20, shows a future world of very rapid economic growth, low population growth, and the rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies. It also characterized steady fossil fuel use (CCCma 2006).

Figure 5.21 is a result of a SRES Bl simulation in a convergent world with the same low population growth rates as in the A IB scenario. In this case the model incorporates quick changes in economic formations toward decreases in material intensity, and also the adaptation to cleaner resource efficient technologies (CCCma 2006).

Temperature anomaly (°C) year 2050 Temperature anomaly (°C) year 2100

Figure 5.21 Optimistic scenario: Projected changes in 5 year mean surface air temperature (°C) in 2000 - 2050 and 2000 - 2100 relative to 1981 - 2000 as simulated by CGCM3/T47 in the IPPC SRES Bl. Source: CCCma 2006.

As for precipitation, the uncertainties when predicting future changes are major. As surface warming increases, so do the evaporation and the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere. As a result of increase in these levels of the water cycle the general average annual precipitation could increase and also affect and change precipitation patterns

(IPCC 2001a, 13). Extreme events are highly probable and the year to year variation is

61 likely to be larger. Over Canada, most of the climate models predict increases in average precipitation (Figures 5.22 and 5.23) , especially winter precipitation. Annual precipitation in general is likely to increase all over the prairies (Figures 5.22 and 5.23).

These increases are likely to vary seasonally, however, such that the amount and type of precipitation will fluctuate by season, e.g. reduction of snow fall during the winter season and replaced by much earlier rains.

Mean precipitation rate (mm/day) year 2050 Mean precipitation rate (mm/day) year 2100

Figure 5.22 Pessimistic scenario: Projected changes in 5 year mean precipitation rate (mm/day) in 2000 - 2050 and 2000 - 2100 relative to 1981 - 2000 as simulated by CGCM3/T47 in the IPPC SRESA1B. Source: CCCma 2006.

A more optimistic scenario for changes in precipitation (Figure 5.23) show slower increases of precipitation over the prairies. There are still large uncertainties about how a possible wetter future, particularly those linked to seasonal variations, could affect life on the prairies. Changes in the length of the seasons, shifts in the seasonality of the precipitations and more intense and frequent precipitations are some of the possible changes that we face.

62 Mean precipitation rate (mm/day) year 2050 Mean precipitation rate (mm/day) year 2100

Figure 5.23 Optimistic scenario: Projected changes in 5 year mean precipitation rate (mm/day) in 2000 - 2050 and 2000 - 2100 relative to 1981 - 2000 as simulated by CGCM3/T47 in the IPPC SRES Bl. Source: CCCma 2006.

Evaporation averages are going to be higher due to increased temperatures, causing significant impacts in the prairies such as a decrease in water availability and possible impacts on aquifers and surface water (Sauchyn et. al. 2005; Adams and Peck 2006).

Even though, Regina's water supply is prejudiced in small degree by prairie climatic settings. A higher increase of precipitation than the projections would be needed for an equilibrium with the increased evaporation rates.

5.4 Water Conservation Policies and Programs in the City of Regina

The City of Regina has the responsibility of supplying water for all the homes and businesses in Regina (City of Regina 1993). Since the city's inception, the provision of water for the public has been a major concern. The Boggy Creek waterworks project

(1904, 1906) was the first city project to supply water resources for the city. Since then, to meet the needs of the growth in population, more efficient waterworks have been

63 established. Buffalo Pound Reservoir and the well fields that exist around the city have been the source of drinking water since 1954 when the treatment plant was constructed.

Water conservation strategies have become very important in the management of the

city's water resources.

The City of Regina has had a water conservation program since the late 1980s when water consumption in the city was increasing (peak daily demand in June, 1988 of 226 megalitres per day). One option to address the demand was a $40 million expansion of

the water treatment plant. Another, less expensive option was to institute programs to

conserve water and reduce the peak demand. Water conservation also resulted in spin -

off savings in the amount of power consumed to deliver the water, thereby lessening use

of fossil fuels and less pollution from the combustion of those fuels. Other benefits

involved the reduction of chemicals in treatment processes and the reduction of

wastewater volumes to be treated.

The original water conservation program was enhanced with the adoption of some

conservation strategies that managers believed were the most appropriate at the time. In

Regina, water conservation was based on water use efficiency and demand-side

management, which can be achieved throughout a variety of methods. The methods

applied by the city managers (City of Regina 1993) are described next.

Until 1991, the City of Regina water conservation program was essentially limited to

strategies such as universal metering, a water loss reduction program, cast iron water

main replacement and peak water demand management. Universal metering implied that

all water sold was metered with the exception of parks watering and hydrant permits.

Until that time the metering of hydrant sales was in question and the parks watering was

64 metered only in smaller parks. The water loss reduction program goal was to identify water losses and non accounts. The replacement of cast iron water mains of 250 mm (or less) diameter was applied in order to reduce the leaks. Finally, the city promoted a voluntary lawn watering plan which is still in place today.

Public education was one of the most important elements in the water enhanced conservation program in 1991. Currently, public education consists of providing information to the public on methods of conserving water, and communicating the information by means such as brochures, web page information, on local television and radio shows, school visits, at local trade shows and xeriscape landscaping workshops. A survey of Regina residents to determine levels of awareness and participation in water conservation was carried out in late 1998. That survey indicated that about three quarters of the people in Regina practice water conservation, over half recall promotion of water conservation, and a significant number felt water conservation advertising made them more likely to conserve water (Kinkead Consulting 2006, 223).

Other enhancements implemented in 1991 included water audits for commercial and industrial users to identify possible malfunctions and to demonstrate the economics of water conservation and/or recycling.

A review of the water conservation program in 1993 led to a proposal to encourage the retrofitting of plumbing fixtures with low flow devices, such as the Ultra Low Flush toilets and showerheads. As well, the public education campaign saw more intense promotion of reducing water when doing daily activities such as showering, brushing teeth, fixing all leaks in taps and toilets and reducing the numbers of loads of laundry.

Plumbing codes were altered to require low flow fixtures in new construction. Also,

65 Regina implemented the option of providing rebates and incentive programs for plumbing retrofits and wastewater recycling.

In 1992, bylaws required the installation of Backflow Prevention Devices (City of

Regina 1993). These devices are intended to stop contaminants from entering into the water network.

Reducing irrigated green space was another initial strategy in the Regina's water conservation program, as well as the optimization of water schedules and equipment for irrigation of public areas, including rainfall compensation (controlled irrigation). Public displays were developed for use in malls or other public areas to demonstrate the amount of water that can be saved by practicing conservation and the corresponding benefits to both the user and the city as a whole.

Water efficient landscaping techniques are also promoted. In 1999, the City of Regina created the Xeriscape Demonstration Site as a strategy for public education on water conservation. 'Xeriscape' refers to water conservation through creative dry landscaping. It can reduce the amount of outdoor water requirements by half during the summer months and it offers variety of colour and diversity even during the winter months. Besides these benefits, it also helps to reduce the use of fertilizer and herbicides. The promotion of native vegetation within the city is also a benefit of xeriscaping.

In November 2002, the City began the implementation of the Water Meter

Replacement/Automated Reading Project (AMR). It included the replacement of about

53,000 residential water meters and the introduction of an automated meter reading system for all 59,000 water meters in Regina. This new system enables the City to keep a more precise and appropriate record of water consumed. It also provides the consumer

66 with a specific amount of water consumed and the corresponding rate thus encouraging water conservation in households. With the finalization of the AMR and full functionality in 2004, the City approved new utility rates for water, sewer and storm drainage.

6. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS

6.1 Water consumption

Due to the City of Regina's geographical location in the relatively dry northern central plains of North America, water is a limited natural resource. Regina's water supply depends for the most part from mountain runoff and in a lesser degree to prairie water availability. Thus, the adequate use of water resources to meet water consumption needs is a critical factor for the city.

Regina's per capita water use depends on climatic conditions, population density, relative density of commercial businesses, effectiveness of local conservation programs, and availability of water from reservoirs. The frequency of rainfall plays an important role in the quantity of water used for municipal purposes, particularly for outdoor use.

This study found that during below-normal rainfall conditions, citizens in the city tend to use more water than during normal weather conditions.

6.1.1 Water consumption, 1988 - 2004

However, water use within a particular year or even across extended time periods can be misleading. Although, Regina's residential water use averaged 208 L/per person/day for the period 1981 to 2004, this can be misleading because there were significant variances in use within that time period. During the 1980s, water consumption

67 in the city increased 24.3%, reaching 39,719 ML/year in 1988. At the same time population only grew by about 10%. In comparison, between 1988 and 2004 the average

annual water consumption in the city decreased by about 30% (Figure 5.1 and Figure 5.2)

although, the population grew 7.4 %.

The decrease in water consumption since 1988 coincides with and can be attributed to the success of city's first Water Conservation Program that was introduced that year.

The program relied on a variety of methods to reduce the water demand in the City.

Public education and modification of water rate structures to encourage conservation

were some of the main activities. The program has been enhanced in subsequent years.

Some of the current goals for the Water Conservation Program are to further reduce per

capita average daily consumption and daily peak consumption (City of Regina 2005,19).

Almost all of the gains from the Water Conservation Program were made in its first

six years, 1988 - 1993. During this period municipal per capita water consumption rates

dropped from 607 L/Day during 1988 to 415 L/Day in 1993. Since 1993, per capita water

consumption has remained steady, on average, at 424 L/Person/Day (28,000 ML/year),

with some exceptions such as 2003 that had higher than average consumption of 429

L/Person/Day (30,121 ML/year),

The 24% increase in water consumption during the late 1980s coincides with

periods of drought, such as those recorded in 1987 and 1988 when much of the southern

prairies was dominated by extremely dry conditions. Those conditions were related to

warmer temperatures and reduced precipitation causing a reduction in moisture

availability (Kemp 1990, Geological Survey of Canada 2001).

68 Since 1948, seven of the top ten warmest years on the prairies have occurred after

1981 (Natural Resources Canada 1999). Environment Canada data point to 2001 and

2003 as having the hottest summer months. In addition, Regina received only 28.3 mm of precipitation from June 1, 2003 to August 31, 2003, below half the average summer precipitation for the period 1997 - 2004 (60 mm), making it the driest summer since

1984.

The City of Regina describes the reduction in water consumption levels after 2003 as a successful advance in decreasing water consumption by up to 10.3% (City of Regina

2005).

6.1.2 Water use by sectors, 1988 - 2004 • Residential water use

The residential sector composed of single family houses, multiple unit residences, apartment buildings, and senior homes is the largest user of water in Regina (Figure 5.4).

There was a steady increase in water consumption in the residential sector until year

1988, followed by a decrease until 2001, after which it began to increase again.

Water consumption in a common household is basically distributed as shown in

Figure 6.2 bathing and toilet flushing are the major activities in a household and involve the greatest use of water. Laundry, kitchen activities and drinking are secondary water uses followed by cleaning as a relatively minor water consumer activity.

69 Cleaning

Kitchen and Drinking

Laundry

Toilet flushing

Showeres and baths

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Residential water use in Canada

Figure 6.1 Residential indoor water use distribution. Canada 1999. Source: Harmony Foundation of Canada 2002; Brandes and Ferguson 2003.

Given its significance, the reduction of household water consumption is a major concern in water conservation programs. Thus, the promotion and adoption of low and ultra low flow devices such as ultra low flush toilets and low flow showerheads are often major components of water conservation strategies. The City of Regina adopted those components as part of its strategy for enhanced water conservation in 1993.

In the summer of 2003, the Social Dimensions of Climate Change Working Group of the University of Regina conducted a telephone survey to identify information for the

City of Regina relevant to potential water shortage issues linked to climate change

(Social Dimensions of Climate Change Working Group 2005). One part of that survey assessed diverse strategies of water conservation currently used in households or strategies that might be applied under a water shortage scenario for the City of Regina.

Less than 40% of the surveyed households had adopted efficient toilets. A portion of that percentage is attributable to standard requirements for water efficient toilets in new homes in Regina. However, given that promotion of water efficient toilets has been a

70 major component of the city's enhanced water conservation program for over 13 years, this seems a relatively low percentage. Major emphasis should be given to residential ultra low flow toilet replacement and other water saving devices. According to Statistics

Canada (2007a), more than 80 percent of private dwellings in Regina were constructed before 1991, which means that a really high percentage of houses have not been using efficient toilets since this is only required for new constructions. The City of

Albuquerque, New Mexico, reduced the amount of water consumed in a daily basis by

30% during the period 1989 - 2001 with low flow toilets, water-efficient washing

machine rebate programs, and xeriscaping (City of Albuquerque 2006).

Other conservation measures adopted by householders include restricting lawn

watering (to a schedule established by the city according to the time of the day and

week), reducing their length of showering, and only doing full loads of laundry and

dishes. However, as the Working Group suggested, such behavioural changes may be the

product of convenience and time saving relative to a busy schedule and not the product of

water conservation initiatives (Social Dimensions of Climate Change Working Group

2005).

Another important finding in the survey was that over 70% of householders

surveyed were not aware of the City of Regina's seven-year old Xeriscape Program

(Social Dimensions of Climate Change Working Group 2005). The city may well want to

increase its emphasis on this program as part of its public information and education

program regarding water conservation.

71 • Commercial/Industrial water use

With about 34% of the water in the city used for commerce, business, administration, production and manufacturing of goods, the commercial/industrial sector is the second largest user of water.

On average, this sector uses around 10,000 megalitres per year. The water used by this sector is harder to separate into specific uses due to the diverse nature of the sector.

Some of the strategies of water conservation in Regina still apply to this sector, however, for example, the replacement of standard toilets with ultra low flow toilets has occurred in all of the city's public buildings and the city follows its own xeriscape guidelines.

Other water conservation strategies for this sector should be considered. Water consumption in the service sector (restaurants, eateries, cafeterias and others, as an example) should be the subject of closer research to reduce the use of water during processes that consume more than the average. For example, restaurants could adopt the

Restaurant Water Conservation Card policy in use in Orange County, California to help in the promotion of conservation strategies. The Orange County Water District in

California promotes environmental awareness and mainly water conservation strategies through the "Orange County Restaurant Water Conservation Card", a free laminated card for the restaurant to place on their tables. The card offers to the client, the restaurant's interest in helping water conservation and indicates that water will be served only upon request (Orange County Water District 2006).

72 • Leakage and others losses

The City estimated water leakage and losses to be around 13% for the period 1988

- 1990, which corresponds to the Canadian average. Prior to establishing its water conservation program, the city estimated the percentages of leakages and water losses to be between 26% and 29%. The adoption of water loss reduction program reduced water leakages to about 12% from 1995 - 2001, a figure which is subject to seasonal variation.

Further reductions of water losses are achieved by locating the unaccounted water and fixing the leakages (Brandes and Ferguson 2003). When reducing leakages and unaccounted water the amount of energy required for treatment is reduced as well as costs in infrastructure are delayed or reduced (Roach et al. 2004).

6.1.3 Total municipal water consumption and supply, 1997 - 2004

During the period 1997 - 2000 there was a decrease in average water consumption of 2.6%, from 74 ML per day in 1997 to about 72 ML per day in 2000. This decrease could be the product of the enhanced water conservation program introduced in 1991.

Furthermore, consumers' acceptance of water conservation principles and strategies likely played an important role in the reduction of levels of water use.

During the period 2001 - 2004 there was an increase of 10% in water consumption, with 2003 having the highest rates overall. This coincides with the abnormally high temperatures in 2003 and suggests that increased consumption rates may be linked to higher temperatures (Figure 5.13).

Water production during the same period (1997 - 2004) presents a somewhat similar pattern. During 1997 the city used about 50% of the water available, while in

1998 about 40% of the available water was used. In 2004, the amount of water consumed

73 by the city almost reached the amount produced. The fact that Regina has been

consuming almost all the water available is a very important fact to take in consideration

in future decisions concerning water management.

Indoor water consumption showed a relatively consistent pattern from 1997 - 2004

(Figure 5.6), although it was lower for 1997 - 1998. During the winter months of 1998

the water consumption average was below 60 Megalitres per day suggesting that

Regina's water conservation strategies were not only effective in reducing outdoor use,

but also indoor use.

6.1.4 Summer water consumption, 1997 - 2004

The amount of water that an individual uses during the summer months is generally

much greater than that used during the winter, sometimes by a factor of two. These

increases are generally related to an increase in water use for outdoor activities. For

example lawn watering, swimming pool maintenance and car washing are among some

of the activities that drive up water consumption levels to increase during the summer.

Between 1997 and 2004, the year 2000 showed the lowest summer water

consumption, coinciding with a low average summer temperature (23.3°C) (Figure 5.12).

The years with the highest consumption were 1997, 2001 and 2003 which are also

coincident with the highest average summer temperatures of the period at 25.8°C, 25.5°C

and 26.7°C, respectively.

Water consumption rates are the highest for each year during July and August. This

suggests that the City's water conservation strategies (such as the lawn watering

schedule) need to focus on reducing summer water consumption.

74 6.2 Summer water consumption and weather variables

Average daily maximum temperature and total daily precipitation variables were used in this research to assess the influence of local climate variability on water consumption of the city. In general, the greatest amount of precipitation (rainfall) received in the Regina area occurs during the summer months. Moreover, the highest temperatures recorded in the Regina area occur also during the summer months. In this study a multiple regression model was applied to assess the relation between water consumption and local climate variables (5.13). Generally, maximum temperature has the most significant apparent relationship with daily water consumption during the summer.

However, according to the result it appears that the influence of total precipitation is also high. It is possible that the influence of precipitation on increases or decreases of daily water consumption may not be a direct day by day link, but may experience more of a time lag effect. For 1997, 53% of the changes in water consumption throughout the summer appeared to be a direct cause of variability in maximum temperature and precipitation. When the temperature was highest, water consumption rates were the highest as well. For those days when there was a weaker link between maximum temperature and water consumption, the amount of precipitation was a factor. In some cases, it was not just the precipitation on the same day but one or two days before that had an influence. For example, rain occurring one or two days previously may forestall a perceived need to water lawns regardless of the temperature on that day.

Water consumption during the summer of 2000 appears to have been influenced not so much by temperature but by precipitation (Figures 5.16 and 5.17). According to climate records for the city, the year 2000 was the second wettest year for the period

1997 - 2004, and also experienced the lowest average summer temperatures.

75 Throughout the summer of 2003 the water consumed by the city appeared to be more affected by fluctuations in maximum temperature than by precipitation (Figures

5.18 and 5.19). Water consumption during the summer of 2003 was the highest for the period (Figure 5.10). Since 2003 was the hottest and driest summer between 1997 and

2004, a probable link between consumption and these variables exists.

Previous authors have documented the relationship between water consumption variability and the variability of weather conditions (Koshida et at. 1997, 76;

Mukhopadhyay et al. 2001; Gutzler and Nims 2005) and have concluded that water conservation strategies play an important role during the summer months when the temperatures are higher. However, it is important to note that the multiple regression model is only using two variables to determine water consumption fluctuations. Other variables need to be considered in order to reach a better explanation of the dependent variable (water consumption). For example, natural indicators (evapotranspiration, humidity, and soil moisture) and the influence of socio-economic factors such as the level of education in a specific household, willingness to practice conservation, and income level can tip the balance towards more or less use of water in households.

6.3 Climate change, water availability and consumption

The quantity of available water on the prairies depends to a great extent on the amount of mountain snowmelt runoff and to a lesser extent the amount of rainfall runoff.

Streams which originate within the prairies demonstrate extreme yearly variability and the majority of the annual runoff may take place during a very short period. As a result, the supply of water is sensitive to changes in climate (Schindler 2003). Hotter and longer

76 summers result in increased evapotranspiration and less surface water is available for use

(Environment Canada 2003b; Environment Canada 2004b).

During the last half century anthropogenic factors have played an important role increasing the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. As a consequence, there has been an associated rise in mean surface air temperatures (see section 2.7, p. 15)

(IPCC 2001a). However, global warming is not evenly distributed and in some regions, especially the Northern Hemisphere, the patterns in change have been greater than in others, (Agnew and Anderson 1992).

Climate model projections for Canada from the IPCC show that temperatures will rise between 1.4°C and 5.8°C by 2100 (Wittrock et al. 2001, 1-1). Although, climate change models predict a general increase of precipitation, evaporation will intensify as a reaction of the higher temperatures, leading to a net moisture deficit. With predicted increases in temperature (see section 5.3, page 59) and greater variability of precipitation, water availability in the prairies is likely to be of increasing concern.

In Regina outdoor water demands (summer water consumption) are likely linked to local climate variability (changes in temperature and precipitation) to a high degree.

The study has also noted that although water availability for the city has historically tended to exceed water use, this gap is narrowing and water use matched availability in

2004. If summer temperatures rise and evapotranspiration increases as a result of global warming, the City of Regina will likely face challenges in meeting demands for water.

6.4 Recommendations The city's water conservation program has been successful in reducing water demand since it was first implemented. However, the success rate appeared lower in 2001

77 and 2003, when summer water demand reached high levels as a result of higher than

average maximum temperatures and lower average precipitation.

It is clear that more work is needed given that residential per capita water consumption per day in the city is greater than that of many developed economies (Figure

6.1). In the face of climate change it is not an option to be satisfied with only a 10% or

20% reduction in water consumption after conservation measurements have been

implemented. Other municipalities have shown reductions in daily water consumption by

50% without major changes in daily routines.

Further effort should be given to promoting water conservation benefits associated

with practices such as xeriscaping programs and better water conservation techniques.

Switching from old toilets to ultra low flow toilets can cut the amount of water use by

more than 60%; resulting in economic savings to households. Collecting rainwater for

garden irrigation can reduce the outdoor water consumption during spring and summer

time. When it comes to businesses, increasing water use efficiency can lower operating

costs and reduce the amounts of fuels and chemicals used. In general, as Brandes and

Ferguson (2003, 37) stated:

"Water not consumed can save a river from a dam and a wetland from destruction. Water not heated with fossil fuel means oil or gas not depleted, coal not burned, carbon not released to cause global warming, and sulphur not deposited as acid rain... "

In Regina over 70% of those surveyed were not aware of the xeriscape program of

the city.

Promotion and advertisement of water conservation programs and strategies in the

city and in the province could benefit from a more vigorous approach. The city of

78 Saskatoon has a good example of an appropriate web site that promotes water conservation and knowledge of water in the city in general (City of Saskatoon 2007). In

Winnipeg general water information is presented as a series of articles and facts rather than on specific water conservation ideas (City of Winnipeg 2007). The City of Calgary encourages water conservation across a wide range of municipal functions. For example, water conservation tips for restaurants has a major potential for application in Calgary, but also in cities across the prairies where the number of restaurants and eateries is growing.

Other cities in North America are doing also a great job in water conservation endorsement. In Ashland, Oregon, the city aggressively promotes water conservation. For example, in addition to extensive media exposure, Water Conservation Analysts visit homes to determine the efficiency of plumbing fixtures and make recommendations to replace inefficient showerheads, install faucet aerators, and retrofit toilets if needed (City of Ashland 2006). As mentioned above, Orange County's restaurants are using Water

Conservation Information Cards to promote water conservation. This is not only effective within the restaurant, but it acts to heighten the public's awareness, generally.

Economic incentives are often considered to be the most effective demand management instruments. Most of the references cited in this research referred to the influence of higher prices and different types of water rates on the reduction of water demands. Maas, (2003, 22) summarized that consensus:

"Water experts generally agree that the lack of strong pricing stimulus is the pre­ eminent barrier to reducing water demand..."

With the implementation of a fully functional AMR in 2004 the City of Regina approved new utility rates for water, sewer and storm drainage. However, the new utility

79 rates are still set up as a constant block rate structure. A uniform rate is applied to all units of water consumed (depending on the connection size), meaning that there are no increases or decreases in the price of water regardless of the amount of water a costumer uses. Although, constant block rates do not discourage water conservation, they do not necessarily encourage it either. Mass (2003) estimated that under a constant block rate

Canadians use around 70% more water than those under a volume based rate structure in which the water price depends on the amount consumed. A conservation-oriented rate structure such as the increasing block rate is a better option when trying to reduce the water demand and the system cost. In Regina, water utility rates (together with wastewater rates) have increased conciderably (Figure 6.2). Although these increases seem to promote water conservation as the product of higher prices of water, they are more the product of a necessity to sustain the system.

0.900 - -10" "

0.800

0.700

O 0.600

^ 0.500 o .Q (0 .D CD 3 a. O 0.400 IB .Q £ 0.300 0.200

0.100

0.000 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003

•mm Municipal Per Capita Water Consumption • Water Rate Volume Charge (m3)

—•—-Wastewater Rate Volume Charge (m3)

Figure 6.2 Regina's volume rate/m in water and wastewater and water total municipal per capita water consumption per day. Source: City of Regina 2005 and City of Regina data.

80 Maintenance, treatment and supply of safe drinking water to the City of Regina comes with higher costs than other cities or urban centers located on the banks or relatively close to a major water system.

Relative to the analysis of water consumption relation to maximum temperatures and total precipitations during the summer months for the period 1997 - 2004, it is concluded that there are apparently strong links between summer water consumption patterns and climatic variables such as temperature and precipitation. Therefore, climate is an important factor in decision making and water management.

The Social Dimensions of Climate Change Working Group (2005) pointed out that there is a lack of in depth knowledge of climate change impacts on water resources held by water managers. An integrated water resources development and management plan was one of the areas proposed by the Agenda 21 (UNEP 1993, 362). The management of water resources within the province have not been very clear and specific during the last few decades in terms of provincial and regional water management plans. It is imperative to re-affirm the connections between institutions with water management functions to more efficient strategies for water resource management. The predicted impacts of climate change on water resources are deserving of more serious study relative to risks and uncertainties associated with water supply and demand for the city.

There is a growing list of crises facing Canada's freshwater resources, including contamination, shortages, and pressures to export water. As the Council of Canadians pointed out, it is time for a comprehensive National Water Policy or a revision of the

Federal Water Act (Council of Canadians 2006).

81 Political discussion at international levels has focused on the need to treat water as a valuable natural resource that can not be carelessly wasted. Water is also promoted as a human right , and an ethical promise to future generations. The city's water conservation education programs should more effectively place global values and rights within a municipal context, in other words, this is not only about us and our present situation, it is

also a global matter that affects our present and future generations.

6.5 For Further Study

With the help of new data from the Water Metering program a more comprehensive

study of water consumption by sectors should be helpful in decision making for future enhancement of the water conservation practices by different economic sectors.

An independent and more concrete study of the relationship between summer water

consumption and climate could be achieved by including more independent variables

such as, soil moisture, humidity and evapotranspiration.

It is important to include all the components of the water supply and consumption

system. For example, for the purpose of narrowing this research, water waste

management was not studied and yet it deserves serious consideration.

Using more detailed and timely data in the future will help in the understanding of the

current patterns of water consumption in Regina. Certainly the root for any successful

water conservation program is the proper understanding of historical and projected water

uses. Reliable and consistent data are require to achieve better forecasts of future water

3 Canada voted against a 2002 resolution by the UN Committee on Human Rights to appoint a Special Rapporteur to promote the right of water (Barlow 2005).

82 demands and with them planning and setting of optimum goals for water conservation programs. Methods and quality of the collected data has to be assessed and qualified.

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91 APPENDIX A

a. Year 1998. Multiple Regression: Consumption vs. Maximum Temperatures and Precipitation in the City of Regina

Table A.l ANOVAfor regression of water consumption, maximum temperatures and total precipitation, year 1998.

: Y VARIABLE 'Flow Meter' : INDEPENDENT VARIABLES 'Maximum Temperature' 'Precipitation'

ANOVA for regression of Flow Meter on Maximum Temperature and Precipitation

Source df SS MS F value Prob>F

Regression 2 14243.7 7121.8 17.12 0.0000 Residual 71 29532.2 415.95

Total 73 43775.9

R2 = 0.3254 (adjusted = 0.3064)

Ftest Reject H0 if F value > Fa being a = .01

17.12 > 4.98

H0 is rejected and concluded that a significant relationship is present between Flow Meter and the two independent variables.

92 Water Consumption vs. Maximum Temperatures June, July and August, 1998

1-Jun 8-Jun 15-Jun 20-Jun 25-Jun 30-Jun 6-Jul 11-Jul 18-Jul 25-Jul 31-Jul 6-Aug 13-Aug 20-Aug 28-Aug

I'- "i Flow Meter —•— Max Temp

Figure A.l Water consumption (mega litres per day) versus maximum temperatures, June, July and August, 1998. Source: City ofRegina data.

Water Consumption vs. Precipitation June, July and August, 1998 160 n r 45 140 40 120 h 35 30 100 j- 25 80 E 20 £ 60 15 40 10 20 5 0 J 0 1-Jun 8-Jun 15-Jun 20-Jun 25-Jun 30-Jun 6-Jul 11-Jul 18-Jul 25-Jul 31-Jul 6-Aug 13-Aug 20-Aug 28-Aug

B Flow Meter • Frecipitation

Figure A.2 Water consumption (mega litres per day) versus precipitation, June, July and August, 1998. Source: City ofRegina data.

93 b. Year 1999. Multiple Regression: Consumption vs. Maximum Temperatures and Precipitation in the City of Regina

Table A.2 ANOVAfor regression of water consumption, maximum temperatures and total precipitation, year 1999.

: Y VARIABLE 'Flow Meter' : INDEPENDENT VARIABLES 'Maximum Temperature1 'Precipitation'

ANOVA for regression of Flow Meter on Maximum Temperatures and Precipitation

Source df SS MS F value Prob>F

Regression 2 5869.88 2934.9 14 .65 0.0000 Residual 64 . 12822.9 200.36

Total 66 18692.8

R2 = 0.3140 (adjusted = 0.2926)

Ftest Reject H0 if F value > Fa being a = .01

14.65 > 4.98

H0 is rejected and concluded that a significant relationship is present between Flow Meter and the two independent variables.

Water Consumption vs. Maximum Temperatures June, July and August, 1999

0-P 1-Jun 9-Jun 16-Jun 22-Jun 29-Jun 5-Jul 13-Jul 20-Jul 28-Jul 3-Aug 9-Aug 17-Aug 23-Aug 30-Aug tami#*i Flow Meter —*— Max Temp

Figure A. 3 Water consumption (mega litres per day) versus maximum temperatures, June, July and August, 1999. Source: City of Regina data.

94 Water Consumption vs. Total Precipitation June, July and August, 1999

1-Jun 9-Jun 16-Jun 22-Jun 29-Jun 5-Jul 13-Jul 20-Jul 28-Jul 3-Aug 9-Aug 17-Aug 23-Aug 30-Aug

• Flow Meter • Precipitation

Figure A.4 Water consumption (mega litres per day) versus precipitation, June, July and August, 1999. Source: City ofRegina data. c. Year 2001. Multiple Regression: Consumption vs. Maximum Temperatures and Precipitation in the City of Regina

Table A. 3 ANOVAfor regression of water consumption, maximum temperatures and total precipitation, year 2001.

: Y VARIABLE 'Flow Meter1 : INDEPENDENT VARIABLES 'Maximum Temperature1 'Precipitation'

ANOVA for regression of Flow Meter on Maximum Temperatures and Precipitation

Source df SS MS F value Prob>F

Regression 2 6204.26 3102.1 15.99 0.0000 Residual 66 12800.6 193.95

Total 68 19004.9

R2 = 0.3265 (adjusted = 0.3060)

Ftest Reject H0 if F value > Fa being a = .01

15.99 > 4.98

95 H0 is rejected and concluded that a significant relationship is present between Flow Meter and the two independent variables.

Water Consumption vs. Maximum Temperatures June, July and August, 2001 - 40

35

30 ' *^ *** 1 t 25 20O

15

10 5

7-Jun 14-Jun 22-Jun 27-Jun 5-Jul 12-Jul 19-Jul 26-Jul 31-Jul 8-Aug 14-Aug 21-Aug 28-Aug Flow Meter —•— Max Temp

Figure A. 5 Water consumption (mega litres per day) versus maximum temperatures, June, July and August, 2001. Source: City ofRegina data.

Water Consumption vs. Total Precipitation June, July and August, 2001

1-Jun 7-Jun 14-Jun 22-Jun 27-Jun 5-Jul 12-Jul 19-Jul 26-Jul 31-Jul 8-Aug 14-Aug 21-Aug 28-Aug • Flow Meter • Precipitation

Figure A.6 Water consumption (mega litres per day) versus precipitation, June, July and August, 2001. Source: City ofRegina data.

96 d. Year 2002. Multiple Regression: Consumption vs. Maximum Temperatures and Precipitation in the City of Regina

Table A.4 ANOVAfor regression of water consumption, maximum temperatures and total precipitation, year 2002.

: Y VARIABLE 'Flow Meter' : INDEPENDENT VARIABLES 'Maximum Temperature' 'Precipitation'

ANOVA for regression of Plow Meter on Maximum Temperatures and Precipitation

Source df SS MS F value Prob>F

Regression 2 8524.55 4262.3 24.40 0.0000 Residual 74 12926.4 174.68

Total 76 21451

R2 = 0.3974 (adjusted = 0.3811)

Ftest Reject H0 if F value > Fa being a = .01

24.40 > 4.98

H0 is rejected and concluded that a significant relationship is present between Flow Meter and the two independent variables.

Water Consumption vs. Maximum Temperatures June, July and August, 2002

1-Jun 8-Jun 15-Jun 22-Jun 30-Jun 7-Jul 14-Jul 20-Jul 27-Jul 4-Aug 12-Aug 18-Aug 26-Aug fc*iMa Flow Meter —•— Max Temp

Figure A.7 Water consumption (mega litres per day) versus maximum temperatures, June, July and August, 2002. Source: City of Regina data.

97 Water Consumption vs. Total Precipitation June, July and August, 2002 140 45

120 40 35 100 30 80 h25£ s 60 \ 20 15 40 10 20-I 5 0 .1I , I 1.1 MM III III - I 0 1-Jun 8-Jun 16-Jun 22-Jun 30-Jun 7-Jul 14-Jul 20-Jul 27-Jul 4-Aug 12-Aug 18-Aug 26-Aug

B Flow Meter • Precipitation

Figure A. 8 Water consumption (mega litres per day) versus precipitation, June, July and August, 2002. Source: City ofRegina data.

e. Year 2004. Multiple Regression: Consumption vs. Maximum Temperatures and Precipitation in the City of Regina

Table A.5 ANOVAfor regression of water consumption, maximum temperatures and total precipitation, year 2004.

: Y VARIABLE 'Flow Meter' : INDEPENDENT VARIABLES 'Maximum Temperature' 'Precipitation'

ANOVA for regression of Flow Meter on Maximum Temperatures and Precipitation

Source df SS MS F value Prob>F

Regression 2 6239.8 3119.9 29.53 0.0000 Residual 68 7183.8 105.64

Total 70 13423.6

R2 = 0.4648 (adjusted = 0.4491)

Ftest Reject H„ if F value > Fa being a = .01

29.53 > 4.98

98 H0 is rejected and concluded that a significant relationship is present between Flow Meter and the two independent variables.

Water Consumption vs. Maximum Temperatures June, July and August, 2004

2-Jun Jun 17-Jun 25-Jun 2-Jul 10-Jul 17-Jul 26-Jul 2-Aug 10-Aug 17-Aug 24-Aug wnr~\ Flow Meter —•— Max Temp

Figure A.9 Water consumption (mega litres per day) versus maximum temperatures, June, July and August, 2004. Source: City ofRegina data.

Water Consumption vs. Total Precipitation June, July and August, 2004 140 25

120 20 100

80 15 E E 60 H 10 40 h5 20 \

0 sfe . . Ill I . I 2-Jun 9-Jun 17-Jun 25-Jun 2-Jul 10-Jul 17-Jul 26-Jul 2-Aug 10-Aug 17-Aug 24-Aug D Flow Meter • Precipitation

Figure A. 10 Water consumption (mega litres per day) versus precipitation, June, July and August, 2004. Source: City ofRegina data.

99 APPENDIX B

Table B. 1. A spectrum of water management approaches Dominant Range of policy Policy discipline choice Fundamental question Planning Process Outcomes

Supply Engineering Low; How can we find new Planners model future growth, Construction; Management infrastructure resources to meet future extrapolate from historic patterns of dams pipelines, based projected needs for water consumption, plan for an increase in canals, wells, based on past trends in water capacity to meet anticipated future needs, desalination. use and population growth? then locate and develop a new source of supply to meet that need.

Demand Economics Medium; short- How can we reduce Planners model growth and account for a Water as an Management term cost- demands for water to comprehensive efficiency and economic good; benefit driven conserve the resource, save conservation program to maximize use of technical fixes; money, and reduce existing infrastructure. Increasing efficiency gains. environmental impacts? capacity would be a final option as part of a least-cost approach.

Soft Path Social High; based on How can we deliver the Planners desired a desired sustainable Ingenuity, new sciences with self-reflective services currently provided future state (or scenario) based on options, habits, physical political by water in new ways that economic and demographic variables and and patterns of limits processes recognize the need for long- then "backcast" to devise a feasible and use. term "system" changes to desirable path to that future with achieve social sustainability? sustainability built into the economic, political, and socio-cultural choices made along the way. Source: As in Brandes et al. 2007.

100 Table B. 2. Water demand management measures

General Categories Specific examples

Socio-political strategies Information and education Water policy Water use permits Landscaping ordinances Water restrictions Plumbing codes for new structures Appliances standards Regulations and by laws: • Turf limitation bylaws • Once-through cooling system bans Economic strategies Rebates for more efficient technologies (e.g., toilets, showers, faucets, appliances, drip irrigation) Tax credits for reduced use Full-cost recovery policies High consumption fines and penalties Pricing structures: • Seasonal rates • Increasing block rates • Marginal cost pricing • Daily peak- hour rates • Integrated sewer and waste water charges Technological strategies Metering Landscape efficiency (Xeriscaping) Soil moisture sensors Watering timers Micro and drip irrigation Cisterns Rain sensors Efficient irrigation systems Soaker hoses Leak detection and repair Water audits Pressure reduction System rehabilitation Efficient technology: • Dual flush toilets • Low and ultra low flow toilets • Low flow faucets • Efficient appliances (dishwashers/washing machines) Recycling and reuse; ranging from cooling and process water to greywater for toilets or irrigation, to treating and reclaiming wastewater for reuse Rain water recollection Source: As in Brandes et al. 2007.

101 Reducing water consumption in the home (Stauffer 2004) There are many ways of reducing water consumption within the household. The ways of how someone uses water at home is a matter of routine, activities and appliances. The following are some facts and measurements one can consider when reducing water consumption within the household.

In the Bathroom Toilet: (4 flushes) ULV Toilet - 6 litres/flush Conventional Toilet - 13-27 litres/flush Shower: (5 minutes/day) Low-flow Shower head - 9.4 litres/minute Conventional Shower head - 13-30 litres/minute Bath: (Once/day) Tub 1/4 to 1/3 full - 34-45 litres Tub Full- 114-170 litres Brushing Teeth: (Twice/day) Brush and Rinse - Open Tap - 8-19 litres/minute Brush and Rinse - When Needed - 2 litres Sink: Open Tap - 8-19 litres/minute

In the Kitchen Dishwasher: (Once/day) Short Cycle - 30-49 litres Standard Cycle - 38-57 litres Sink: Open Tap - 8-19 litres/minute Clean your vegetables in a bowl of water not under a running tap Keep a jug of water in the fridge so you don't have to run your tap for long periods waiting for cold water.

102 APPENDIX C

0.800

0.700 ] 1

.Q o 0.500

1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007

—•—Water Rate Volume Charge (m3) • Wastewater Rate Volume Charge (m3)

Figure C.lWater and wastewater utility rate history since 1991. Source: City of Regina 2005.

Table C.l Water and wastewater rate history. Source: City of Regina 2005 Water Rate Wastewater Rate Volume Charge Volume Charge Year (m3) [m3] 1991 0.565 0.558 1992 0.593 0.601 1993 0.643 0.650 1994 0.693 0.700 1995 0.728 0.721 1996 0.740 0.690 1997 0.750 0.660 1998 0.750 0.630 1999 0.750 0.630 2000 0.750 0.630 2001 0.750 0.630 2002 0.770 0.650 2003 0.790 0.670 2004 0.810 0.690 2005 0.830 0.720 2006 0.850 0.750 2007 0.880 0.780

103