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Proquest Dissertations A STUDY OF WATER CONSUMPTION AND SUPPLY PATTERNS IN THE CITY OF REGINA: CONSERVATION STRATEGIES IN THE FACE OF CLIMATE CHANGE A Thesis Submitted to the Faculty of Graduate Studies and Research In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Arts in Geography University of Regina by Mauricio Jimenez Salazar Regina, Saskatchewan February, 2008 Copyright 2008: M. Jimenez Library and Bibliotheque et 1*1 Archives Canada Archives Canada Published Heritage Direction du Branch Patrimoine de I'edition 395 Wellington Street 395, rue Wellington Ottawa ON K1A0N4 Ottawa ON K1A0N4 Canada Canada Your file Votre reference ISBN: 978-0-494-42446-9 Our file Notre reference ISBN: 978-0-494-42446-9 NOTICE: AVIS: The author has granted a non­ L'auteur a accorde une licence non exclusive exclusive license allowing Library permettant a la Bibliotheque et Archives and Archives Canada to reproduce, Canada de reproduire, publier, archiver, publish, archive, preserve, conserve, sauvegarder, conserver, transmettre au public communicate to the public by par telecommunication ou par Plntemet, prefer, telecommunication or on the Internet, distribuer et vendre des theses partout dans loan, distribute and sell theses le monde, a des fins commerciales ou autres, worldwide, for commercial or non­ sur support microforme, papier, electronique commercial purposes, in microform, et/ou autres formats. paper, electronic and/or any other formats. The author retains copyright L'auteur conserve la propriete du droit d'auteur ownership and moral rights in et des droits moraux qui protege cette these. this thesis. Neither the thesis Ni la these ni des extraits substantiels de nor substantial extracts from it celle-ci ne doivent etre imprimes ou autrement may be printed or otherwise reproduits sans son autorisation. reproduced without the author's permission. In compliance with the Canadian Conformement a la loi canadienne Privacy Act some supporting sur la protection de la vie privee, forms may have been removed quelques formulaires secondaires from this thesis. ont ete enleves de cette these. While these forms may be included Bien que ces formulaires in the document page count, aient inclus dans la pagination, their removal does not represent il n'y aura aucun contenu manquant. any loss of content from the thesis. Canada UNIVERSITY OF REGINA FACULTY OF GRADUATE STUDIES AND RESEARCH SUPERVISORY AND EXAMINING COMMITTEE Mauricio Jiminez Salazar, candidate for the degree of Master of Arts in Geography, has presented a thesis titled, A Study of Water Consumption and Supply Patterns in the City of Regina: Conservation Strategies in the Face of Climate Change, in an oral examination held on January 17, 2008. The following committee members have found the thesis acceptable in form and content, and that the candidate demonstrated satisfactory knowledge of the subject material. External Examiner: Dr. Norman Henderson, Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative Co-Supervisor: Dr. David Gauthier, Department of Geography Co-Supervisor: Dr. Joseph Piwowar, Department of Geography Committee Member: *Dr. David Sauchyn, Department of Geography Chair of Defense: Dr. Monika Cule, Department of Economics ''Not Present at defense ABSTRACT Regina is one of the few cities in the Canadian prairies not located on the banks of, or relatively close to, a major water system. In comparison, other major cities in Saskatchewan have access to an immediate water resource, such as the South Saskatchewan River for Saskatoon and the North Saskatchewan River for the cities of North Battleford and Prince Albert. Therefore, water supply has been an important issue for Regina since early times. This study analyses and describes the water consumption patterns of the city since 1981 and examines some climatic factors in relation to their effect on summer water demands. A regression model with two independent variables (maximum temperatures and total precipitation) was used to explain water use in the city during the summer months of 1997 - 2004. The overall conclusion of the research is that summer water consumption in Regina is linked significantly to climatic factors such as maximum temperature and total precipitation. This study also explores possible impacts of global warming on the water availability on the prairies, and therefore the water supply for the City of Regina. Climate change scenarios for the future in North America were used to project changes in temperature and precipitation for the years 2050 and 2100. For 2050, the model predicts a change in temperature of 1.5°C ± 2.5°C in the prairie region of Canada. By 2100, these changes could be up to 1.5°C ± 3.5°C. One of the primary impacts of these climatic changes will be a reduction in water availability. If projected climate changes occur, city water supplies are going to be significantly affected. When facing reductions in the available water resources, water conservation practices and strategies play an important role for the survival of prairie cities. A water ii demand management approach has been put in practice in Regina since the late 1980s. The main water conservation strategies used in the city are also described in this thesis. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I want to extend my deep gratitude and appreciation to supervisors Dr. David Gauthier (Vice-President Research and International and Professor of Geography, University of Regina) and Dr. Joseph Piwowar (Canada Research Chair in Geomatics and Sustainability and Professor of Geography, University of Regina) for their assistance and support towards the preparation of this thesis. I also want to thank Mr. Randy Burant (Water Technologist, Engineering and Works Department of the City of Regina) for his help with the collection and interpretation of much of the data used in this research. The investigation was supported in part by a SSHRC grant of Dr. David Gauthier, different assistantship appointments in the Geography Department at the University of Regina, funding from the Faculty of Graduate Studies and Research, University of Regina and Research Assistant appointments at the Canadian Plains Research Center (CPRC). IV TABLE OF CONTENTS Abstract ii Acknowledgments iv Table of Contents v List of Figures vii List of Tables ix 1. Introduction 1 1.1 GOAL 2 1.2 OBJECTIVES 3 1.3 STRUCTURE OF THE DOCUMENT 4 2. Literature Review 5 2.1 GENERAL INTRODUCTION 5 2.2 WATER VISION 5 2.3 WATER MANAGEMENT 6 2.3.1 Water Management in Saskatchewan 7 2.3.2 Alberta Water Management Framework 9 2.3.3 Examples of Water Management Programs in the United States 10 2.4 WATER CONSUMPTION IN GENERAL 11 2.4.1 Water Consumption in Canada 12 2.4.2 Water Consumption in Regina 14 2.5 WATER CONSERVATION IN REGINA 16 2.6 CLIMATE CHANGE 17 2.6.1 The IPCC Assessments of Climate Change 18 2.6.2 Climate Change in Canada 21 2.6.3 Climate Change Effects and Water Conservation 23 3. Study Area 25 3.1 CITY OF REGINA, SASKATCHEWAN 25 3.2 LOCATION 26 3.3 DEMOGRAPHICS 27 3.4 CLIMATE 28 3.5 REGINA'S FUNCTION IN THE PROVINCE 28 4. Methods 29 4.1 INTRODUCTION 29 4.2 OBJECTIVE 1 34 4.3 OBJECTIVE 2 36 4.4 OBJECTIVE 3 38 4.5 OBJECTIVE 4 40 4.6 OBJECTIVE 5 41 5. Results 41 5.1 CONSUMPTION AND SUPPLY OF WATER 41 5.1.1 24-year (1981 - 2004) trend analysis of average annual water consumption and average annual water consumption by sectors in the City of Regina 42 V 5.1.2 8-year (1997 - 2004) trend analysis of water consumption and production (Supply) for the City of Regina 46 5.1.3 8-year (1997 - 2004) trend analysis of water consumption during the summer months (June, July and August) for the City of Regina 50 5.2 STATISTICAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN WATER CONSUMPTION AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES / TOTAL PRECIPITATION 52 5.2.1 Analysis of variance (ANOVA) on Water Consumption versus Maximum Temperatures and Total Precipitation presented in the City of Regina during the summer months, 1997 - 2004 52 5.3 CLIMATE CHANGE MODELS 59 5.4 WATER CONSERVATION POLICIES AND PROGRAMS IN THE CITY OF REGINA 63 6. Discussion and conclusions 67 6.1 WATER CONSUMPTION 67 6.1.1 Water consumption, 1988-2004 67 6.1.2 Water use by sectors, 1988-2004 69 6.1.3 Total municipal water consumption and supply, 1997 - 2004 73 6.1.4 Summer water consumption, 1997 - 2004 74 6.2 SUMMER WATER CONSUMPTION AND WEATHER VARIABLES 75 6.3 CLIMATE CHANGE, WATER AVAILABILITY AND CONSUMPTION 76 6.4 RECOMMENDATIONS 77 6.5 FOR FURTHER STUDY 82 References 84 Appendix A 92 Appendix B 100 Appendix C 103 VI LIST OF FIGURES Figure 2.1 The five main water users in Canada 1996. Source: Brandes and Ferguson 2003 13 Figure 2.2 Municipal water use by sector in Canada, 1999. Source: Brandes and Ferguson 2003 14 Figure 2.3 Comparison of Water consumption (megalitres per year) and population, 1981 - 2004. Source: City of Regina 1993 15 Figure 2.4 Average maximum temperatures and average total precipitations June, July and August. 1997 - 2004 for the City of Regina. Source: Environment Canada 2005 15 Figure 2.5 Total annual water consumption by sector, 1981 - 2004. Source: City of Regina 17 Figure 2.7 Comparison between modeled and observations of temperature raise (°C), 1860 - 2000. Source: IPCC, 2001a 20 Figure 2.8 Annual temperature trends, 1901 - 2003. Source: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) 2005 21 Figure 2.9 Observed trends in mean surface air temperature in Canada expressed as temperature change (°C), 1950 - 2004. Source: CCCma 2006 22 Figure 3.1 The Palliser's Triangle. Adapted from: Lemmen et al. 1997 26 Figure 3.2 Age structure, for both sexes, Regina Census Metropolitan Area. Source: Statistics Canada 2007a 27 Figure 3.3 Regina's Ethnic Diversity.
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