Naval Postgraduate School Thesis
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NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA THESIS TURKEY AND PKK TERRORISM by Tevfik Zehni June 2008 Thesis Advisor: James Russell Co-Advisor: Anne Marie Baylouny Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE Form Approved OMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instruction, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202-4302, and to the Office of Management and Budget, Paperwork Reduction Project (0704-0188) Washington DC 20503. 1. AGENCY USE ONLY 2. REPORT DATE 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED June 2008 Master’s Thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Turkey and PKK Terrorism 5. FUNDING NUMBERS 6. AUTHOR(S) Tevfik Zehni 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION Naval Postgraduate School REPORT NUMBER Monterey, CA 93943-5000 9. SPONSORING /MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSORING/MONITORING N/A AGENCY REPORT NUMBER 11. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES The views expressed in this thesis are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or the U.S. Government. 12a. DISTRIBUTION / AVAILABILITY STATEMENT 12b. DISTRIBUTION CODE Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited 13. ABSTRACT In this thesis, Turkey’s struggle against PKK terrorism is analyzed to find an answer to the main research question of this thesis: “Why has Turkey not overcome the PKK and its terrorism after thirty years of struggle?” To accomplish this, two sub- questions are asked. The first sub-question deals with the perceptions and consequences of terrorism. Consequently, the thesis seeks a comprehensive understanding the motivations of both PKK cadres and Turkish decision makers. The second sub-question seeks to answer the question of why Turkish countermeasures against the PKK’s tactics did not put an end to it. Likewise, the second question seeks reasons why PKK terrorism has not achieved the group’s political objectives. Hence, the thesis described the mistakes of both parties in the interactive process. The main argument of this thesis is that Turkey has not managed to destroy the PKK because it is entrapped by the PKK’s tactics, which aim to make the adversary overreact and force its adversary to implement measures which have counterproductive unintended consequences. Hence, the thesis argues that the PKK has successfully created a gap between the Turkish state and its Turkish citizens with Kurdish origin. Consequently, the PKK has managed to survive for thirty years by convincing these alienated Turkish Kurds to tacitly support the terrorist group. 14. SUBJECT TERMS 15. NUMBER OF Turkey, The PKK, Terrorism, PKK Terrorism, Turks and Kurds PAGES 83 16. PRICE CODE 17. SECURITY 18. SECURITY 19. SECURITY 20. LIMITATION OF CLASSIFICATION OF CLASSIFICATION OF THIS CLASSIFICATION OF ABSTRACT REPORT PAGE ABSTRACT Unclassified Unclassified Unclassified UU NSN 7540-01-280-5500 Standard Form 298 (Rev. 2-89) Prescribed by ANSI Std. 239-18 i THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK ii Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited TURKEY AND PKK TERRORISM Tevfik Zehni Captain, Turkish Air Force B.S., Turkish Air Force Academy, 1997 Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF ARTS IN SECURITY STUDIES (DEFENSE DECISION-MAKING) from the NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL June 2008 Author: Tevfik Zehni Approved by: Professor James Russell Thesis Advisor Professor Anne Marie Baylouny Co-Advisor Professor Harold A. Trinkunas Chairman, Department of National Security Affairs iii THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK iv ABSTRACT In this thesis, Turkey’s struggle against PKK terrorism is analyzed to find an answer to the main research question of this thesis: “Why has Turkey not overcome the PKK and its terrorism after thirty years of struggle?” To accomplish this, two sub- questions are asked. The first sub-question deals with the perceptions and consequences of terrorism. Consequently, the thesis seeks a comprehensive understanding the motivations of both PKK cadres and Turkish decision makers. The second sub-question seeks to answer the question of why Turkish countermeasures against the PKK’s tactics did not put an end to it. Likewise, the second question seeks reasons why PKK terrorism has not achieved the group’s political objectives. Hence, the thesis described the mistakes of both parties in the interactive process. The main argument of this thesis is that Turkey has not managed to destroy the PKK because it is trapped by the PKK’s tactics, which aim to make the adversary overreact and force its adversary to implement measures which have counterproductive unintended consequences. Hence, the thesis argues that the PKK has successfully created a gap between the Turkish state and its citizens with Kurdish origin. Consequently, the PKK has managed to survive for thirty years by convincing these alienated Turkish Kurds to tacitly support the terrorist group. v THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK vi TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION........................................................................................................1 A. MAJOR RESEARCH QUESTION................................................................1 B. IMPORTANCE................................................................................................2 C. LITERATURE REVIEW ...............................................................................3 D. METHODS AND SOURCES..........................................................................7 II. TURKEY AND THE PKK..........................................................................................9 A. INTRODUCTION............................................................................................9 B. THE EFFECTS OF TURKISH DOMESTIC DYNAMICS IN THE LATE 1970S ON THE PKK ISSUE...............................................................9 C. THE EFFECTS OF THE INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENT ON THE PKK ISSUE...........................................................................................15 D. CONCLUSION ..............................................................................................19 III. TURKEY’S COUNTERTERRORISM STRATEGIES AND THE PKK’S TACTICS....................................................................................................................21 A. INTRODUCTION..........................................................................................21 B. TURKEY’S COUNTERTERRORISM STRATEGIES AND THE PKK’S TACTICS...........................................................................................21 1. From the Late 1970s to 1990.............................................................21 a. The PKK’s Tactics...................................................................21 b. Turkey’s Countermeasures.....................................................25 2. From 1990 to 1999..............................................................................28 a. The PKK’s Tactics...................................................................28 b. Turkey’s Countermeasures.....................................................32 3. From 1999 to Now..............................................................................35 a. The PKK’s Tactics...................................................................35 b. Turkey’s Countermeasures.....................................................42 C. CONCLUSION ..............................................................................................48 IV. CONCLUSION ..........................................................................................................51 A. MAIN ARGUMENT......................................................................................51 B. RECOMMENDATIONS...............................................................................55 LIST OF REFERENCES......................................................................................................63 INITIAL DISTRIBUTION LIST .........................................................................................71 vii THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK viii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I am grateful to Professor James Russell for his guidance and for sharing his deep knowledge of terrorism. This thesis would not have been possible without his great expertise, instruction, and valuable time to direct this thesis. I also would like to express my thanks to Professor Anne Marie Baylouny for her expertise and understanding. I am also grateful to my parents, my wife, Serap, and my daughter, Elif, for providing me with their support and understanding, which helped me to focus on this thesis. Finally, I would like to thank the Turkish Air Force and the Republic of Turkey for providing this precious opportunity for postgraduate study. ix THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK x I. INTRODUCTION A. MAJOR RESEARCH QUESTION Turkey has been fighting the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) for almost thirty years. As a consequence of terrorism, Turkey has spent a significant portion