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Konsiderasi Pemerintah Amerika Serikat Dalam Kesepakatan Kerjasama Pemanfaatan Energi Nuklir Amerika Serikat-India

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Konsiderasi Pemerintah Amerika Serikat Dalam Kesepakatan Kerjasama Pemanfaatan Energi Nuklir Amerika Serikat-India Analisis Perubahan Kebijakan Luar Negeri Armenia terhadap Keanggotaannya dalam Eurasian Customs Union Irfan Adi Prabawa – 071012099 Program Studi S1 Hubungan Internasional, Universitas Airlangga ABSTRACT Until June 2013, Armenia remains a country that had on going negotiation with European Union about the establishment of Deep and Compehensive Free Trade Area Agreement (DCFTA). The European Union has previously cooperated with Armenia. Armenia even expressed his unwillingness to join the Eurasian Customs Union (ECU) together with Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan and preferred to join with EU to form DCFTA on April 2012. However, on January 23 2014, Armenia gave a surprising statement to join ECU by signing the roadmap of ECU membership. This foreign policy change is examined by using model of foreign policy change of Joakim Eidenfalk that try to find the influence of some parties in the process of the making of foreign policy. The hypothesis of this research is that the change of foreign policy of Armenia is influenced by the change of regional factors and non – states actors that become consideration for the key actors to make a decision in foreign policy change. Keywords: Changes in Foreign Policy, Armenia, Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area Agreement (DCFTA), the EU, Eurasian Customs Union (ECU), Hingga bulan Juni 2013, Armenia masih menjadi negara yang sedang melakukan negosiasi dengan Uni Eropa mengenai pembentukan Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area Agreement (DCFTA). Uni Eropa sebelumnya juga melakukan kerjasama dengan Armenia. Pada April 2012, Armenia cenderung bersikap mengarah pada pembentukan DCFTA dan bahkan menyatakan ketidakinginannya untuk bergabung dengan Eurasian Customs Union (ECU) bersama Rusia, Belarusia, dan Kazakhstan. Namun, pada tanggal 23 Januari 2014, Armenia memberikan pernyataan mengejutkan dengan lebih memilih bergabung dengan ECU dengan menandatangani roadmap keanggotaan ECU. Perubahan kebijakan luar negeri ini diteliti dengan menggunakan model perubahan kebijakan luar negeri milik Joakim Eidenfalk. Hipotesis dalam penelitian ini menganggap bahwa perubahan kebijakan luar negeri Armenia dipengaruhi oleh perubahan pada faktor regional dan aktor non-negara yang dikonversikan oleh aktor kunci pembuat keputusan untuk memulai langkah perubahan kebijakan luar negerinya telah teruji. 1589 Irfan Adi Prabawa Kata Kunci: Perubahan Kebijakan Luar Negeri, Armenia, DCFTA, Uni Eropa, EC Pada tanggal 3 September 2013, Presiden Armenia Serzh Sargsyan telah mengungkapkan bahwa pemerintah Armenia siap untuk bergabung dengan Eurasian Customs Union (ECU) yang diprakarsai oleh Rusia. Kesepakatan Armenia ini membuat Armenia berada bersama dengan Rusia, Belarusia, serta Kazakhstan yang sebelumnya dikenal sebagai pelopor dari ECU tersebut. Hal ini sangatlah bertolak belakang jika dilihat dari berbagai kebijakan yang diumumkan dan dilakukan oleh Armenia sebelumnya. Sebelumnya, pada tanggal 4 April 2012 pihak pemerintah Armenia mengumumkan penolakannya untuk bergabung dengan serikat Eurasia tersebut, dan hanya membuka peluang untuk bekerjasama tanpa adanya rencana untuk menjadi anggota dari Union tersebut, “In an interview with Kommersant, Armenian Prime Minister Tigran Sarkisyan says that his country has no plans to join the Customs Union of Rusia, Belarus and Kazakhstan.” Dalam pernyataan tersebut, pemerintah Armenia lewat Perdana Menteri Tigran Sargsyan sebagai perwakilan menyatakan bahwa Armenia tak memiliki rencana untuk bergabung dengan Customs Union yang diprakarsai oleh Rusia, Belarusia, dan Kazakstan tersebut karena Armenia tidak berbatasan langsung dengan negara-negara ECU. Selain itu, Tigran Sargsyan juga menganggap bahwa keanggotaan di ECU bukanlah hal yang relevan bagi Armenia karena Armenia tak memiliki shared borders dengan ketiga negara ECU lainnya, perbedaan alam yang membuat Armenia tidak memiliki sumber daya alam layaknya ketiga negara anggota ECU tersebut juga menjadi alasan, serta sistem liberal yang dianut oleh Armenia juga tidak kompatibel dengan negara-negara ECU yang semuanya lebih mengarah pada sosialis. Alasan tidak memiliki perbatasan langsung dengan negara-negara ECU dianggap Tigran Sargsyan nantinya tetap akan memberikan beban terhadap produk impor ataupun ekspor yang masuk dan keluar Armenia. Untuk menjelaskan perubahan kebijakan luar negeri Armenia, penulis menggunakan model perubahan kebijakan luar negeri dari Joakim Eidenfalk yang difokuskan pada tingkat international source of change. Perubahan kebijakan luar negeri merupakan suatu produk dari interaksi yang terjadi antara aktor-aktor serta faktor-faktor yang terlibat di dalam proses pembuatannya. Dalam penjelasannya, ia menyatakan bahwa perubahan kebijakan luar negeri suatu negara dapat terjadi karena adanya perubahan yang terjadi pada hal-hal substantif dari faktor-faktor pendorong yang kemudian membentuk Window of Opportunity yang dirasakan dan dipersepsikan oleh aktor-aktor kunci pembuat keputusan yang kemudian mendorong untuk terjadinya perubahan kebijakan luar negeri. “a change in structural conditions, which leads to influence or pressure coming from the sources of change. This, in turn, is perceived by a key decision-maker which starts the decision-making 1590 Jurnal Analisis Hubungan Internasional, Vol. 4. No. 1 Analisis Perubahan Kebijakan Luar Negeri Armenia terhadap Keanggotaannya dalam Eurasian Customs Union process, which can ultimately lead to a foreign policy change.” Faktor internasional yang dimaksud adalah faktor regional serta faktor aktor non-negara dari Armenia. Faktor Regional Perubahan yang terjadi dalam Konflik Nagorno Karabakh Armenia menjadi salah satu negara wilayah Kaukasus bagian selatan atau yang dikenal dengan Transcaucasia. Wilayah ini terkenal dengan ketidakstabilitan dari negara-negara yang bertempat di daerah tersebut. Perubahan yang terjadi ini dimulai pada bulan Juli 2012, Presiden Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev memberikan ancaman terhadap Armenia bahwa jika Armenia masih terus menerus melakukan pendudukan di wilayah kedaulatan Azerbaijan atau lebih tepatnya di wilayah Nagorno Karabakh maka pihak Azerbaijan siap untuk melakukan pengusiran terhadap oknum-oknum yang merupakan pihak Armenia. Selain itu, Aliyev juga menjelaskan kemajuan yang dimiliki Azerbaijan jika dibandingkan dengan Armenia secara ekonomi dan militer. Pada tahun 2012 misalnya, Azerbaijan telah memiliki aparat militer sebanyak 56.840 orang, Azerbaijan juga memiliki 339 tank dengan rincian 95 tank jenis T-55 dan 244 tank jenis T-72. Di sektor udara Azerbaijan memiliki 44 peralatan perang udara termasuk dengan rincian 4 MiG-21 Fishbed, 4 Su-17 Fitter, 1 Su-17U Fitter, Su-24 Fencert, 16 Su-25 Frogfoot, 3 Su-25UB Frogfoot B, 1 MiG-29 Fulcrum. Sedangkan Armenia di tahun yang sama hanya memiliki 45.846 orng aparat militer, 110 tank dengan rincian 3 jenis T-54, 5 T-55 dan 102 T-72. Armenia juga kalah peralatan pada sektor udara dengan hanya memiliki 16 alat perang udara yakni, 1 jenis MiG-25 Foxbat, dan 15 Su-25 Frogfoot. Tak hanya itu, pada tahun 2013 Azerbaijan juga mengungguli Armenia dalam anggaran pertahanan negaranya dengan mencapai 3,7 miliar dollar AS berbanding dengan Armenia yang memberikan anggaran pada sektor pertahanan sejumlah 447 juta dollar AS di tahun yang sama. Selain itu, pada bulan Agustus 2013, Aliyev kembali mengumumkan hal yang tak pernah terungkap, yakni kerjasama terkait perdagangan senjata antara Azerbaijan dan Rusia yang mencapai 4 miliar AS. Perlu diketahui bahwa kebijakan luar negeri Armenia menaruh poros utama kebijakan dalam permasalahan Nagorno-Karabakh yang melibatkan Armenia dengan Azerbaijan dan memosisikan Rusia sebagai salah satu negara anggota Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) bersama Armenia, sebagai partner utama mereka baik dalam hal keamanan maupun ekonomi. CSTO merupakan organisasi yang ditandatangani oleh kedua belah pihak di Moskow pada tanggal 29 Agustus 1997. Dan berisikan ketika salah satu pihak berada dalam situasi diserang dan juga bahkan merasa Jurnal Analisis HI, Maret 2015 1591 Irfan Adi Prabawa diancam oleh pihak ketiga yang tidak termasuk dalam perjanjian ini, para negara yang menyetujui perjanjian ini akan memberikan bantuan militer. Tak hanya itu, perjanjian ini juga akan membuat negara-negara anggotanya bersama-sama melindungi perbatasan armenia dengan negara-negara non-CIS (yang tidak termasuk dalam CIS). Beberapa hal ini membuat Armenia merasa tidak nyaman. Ini disampaikan oleh Menteri Pertahanan Seyran Ohanian menyatakan bahwa, “I can’t be happy with that but I have no right to stop it.” Pada bulan Oktober 2012, Presiden Armenia Serzh Sargsyan sempat mengungkapkan bahwa dirinya merasakan adanya ancaman perang dalam kasus Nagorno Karabakh yang dilakukan oleh pihak Azerbaijan lewat Presiden Ilham Aliyev. “Now, 18 years after the signing of this cease-fire agreement, Azerbaijan threatens us with a new war.” Selain itu, Serzh Sargsyan juga menyatakan bahwa salah satu indikator ketika Armenia memutuskan perang atau tidak adalah jika Azerbaijan terus memperkuat persenjataannya. “when I say there is a dangerous accumulation of armaments in Azerbaijan; when I say Azerbaijan is getting prepared for resuming military hostilities and settling the conflict by military means, that doesn't mean at all that there is no need to continue with negotiations.” Selain itu, pada akhir tahun 2012 Serzh Sargsyan juga menyatakan bahwa bertambahnya senjata dan amunisi dari Azerbaijan menjadi sebuah ancaman bagi Armenia dalam konflik Nagorno Karabakh. Pada tanggal 19 Desember 2012, Serzh Sargsyan
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