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2018/6 Hindistan Ve Pakistan Arasında Şubat Gerilimi/S. 7-26 Doç 2018/6 Hindistan ve Pakistan Arasında Şubat Gerilimi/s. 7-26 Doç. Dr. Dilek YİĞİT ABD’nin Ortadoğu Politikası ve İran’a Yönelik Son Hamleleri/s. 27-38 Doç. Dr. Barış DOSTER Irak’ın Kuzeyinde Asur Özerk Bölge Talebi/s. 39-58 Prof. Dr. Yonca İLDEŞ 1979-2001 Yılları Arasında İran-Irak İlişkileri/s.59-110 Tahseen ABDULLAH Suriyeli Göçmen Sorunu ve Taşıdığı Riskler/s. 111-129 Prof. Dr. Haydar ÇAKMAK Terör Örgütlerinin Suriye İç Savaşına Etkileri/s.130-165 Ömer ÖZDEMİR Sudan’ın Uluslararası İlişkilerdeki Yeri/s. 166-190 Dr. Yeşim DEMİR Siyasi Türkçülük Devri Düşünürleri ve İran Türklüğü/s. 191-216 Babek ŞAHİT 2019/6 Sahibi TÜDEV adına Y.Tuğrul TÜRKEŞ Genel Yayın Yönetmeni Mehmet Müştak Editör Prof. Dr. Haydar Çakmak Editör Yardımcıları Doç. Dr. Şennur Şenel Prof. Dr. Yonca İldeş Yayın Kurulu Doç. Dr. Nail Alkan Doç. Dr. Bilal Karabulut Doç. Dr. Kürşat Turan Yrd. Doç. Dr. Fatma Güngör Akkan Dr. Hakem Cabbarlı Hakem Kurulu Prof. Dr.MustafaYılmaz Prof. Dr. Abdülhaluk Çay Prof. Dr. Fatma Hale Şıvgın Prof. Dr.Abdulkadir Yuvalı Prof. Dr.Şerif Korkmaz Prof. Dr. Nurşen Fındık Prof. Dr. Konuralp Ercilasun Prof. Dr. Mehmet Emin Çağıran Dergi yılda üç kez yayınlanır, hakemli bilimsel bir dergidir. EQUİLİBRİUM Owner TUDEV Y.Tuğrul TÜRKEŞ Director Mehmet Müştak Editor Prof. Dr. Haydar Çakmak Assitant Editors Doç. Dr. Şennur Şenel Prof. Dr. Yonca İldeş Editoroal Board Doç. Dr. Nail Alkan Doç. Dr. Bilal Karabulut Doç. Dr. Kürşat Turan Yrd. Doç. Dr. Fatma Güngör Akkan Dr. Hakem Cabbarlı Arbitration Board Prof. Dr.MustafaYılmaz Prof. Dr. Abdülhaluk Çay Prof. Dr. Fatma Hale Şıvgın Prof. Dr.Abdulkadir Yuvalı Prof. Dr.Şerif Korkmaz Prof. Dr. Nurşen Fındık Prof. Dr. Konuralp Ercilasun Prof. Dr. Mehmet Emin Çağıran Equilibrium is published three times a year Dergiye gönderilen yazı ve fotoğraflar iade edilmez. Bu dergide yayınlanan yazılardaki fikirler yazarlarına aittir. The articles and photos that has been sent to the journal for publication may not ne returned even if they are not published. The responsibility of the ideas in this journal belongs to their autours. 2 Adres: Beytepe Mahallesi 5699. Sokak No: 7/6 Anhira Villaları, 06800 Beytepe/Ankara e-Posta: [email protected] Web Site : www.tudev.org.tr ww.turkdiasporasi.com 3 Basım Yeri Net Ofset ve Dijital Matbaacılık ltd. şti. 0312 230 07 23 2019/Ankara 4 EDİTÖRDEN 2016 yılında yayın hayatına başlayan dergimiz “DENGE” üçüncü yılını bitirmiştir. Bir derginin devlet veya güçlü bir kurumun desteği olmadan üç yıl yaşaması takdire şayan bir durumdur. Biz bunu başardık ve dördüncü yıl ve altıncı sayı ile elinizdeyiz. Denge dergisi, üç yıldır münhasıran İran Türklüğü konusunda makalelere yer vermiştir. Derginin amacı İran Türklerinin Sosyo-Kültürel sorunlarını dile getirmek ve onların İran bütünlüğü içinde hak ve hukukunu savunmak olmuştur. Bu görevi yürütmek için en önemli desteği değerli usta gazeteci, Türk dünyası ve Türklük davasının gönüllü neferi Sayın Mehmet Müştak yapmıştır. Kendisine buradan samimi şükran ve teşekkürlerimizi sunarız. Dergimizin bundan sonraki yayın hayatına desteğini ve katkısını esirgemeyeceğini biliyoruz ve birlikte çalışmaya devam edeceğiz. DENGE dergisi altıncı sayısından itibaren, 1993 yılında, Rahmetli, Başbuğ Alpaslan Türkeş ve arkadaşları tarafından kurulan TÜDEV (Türk Dünyası Dostluk, Kardeşlik ve İş Birliği Vakfı) tarafından neşredilecektir. TÜDEV, Soğuk Savaş sonrası özgürlüğüne kavuşan, Türk devlet ve akraba topluluklarına yardım ve destek için kurulmuştur. TÜDEV’in amacı, özgürlüğüne kavuşan Türk ve akraba toplulukların tanışması, kaynaşması ve aralarında Kültürel, Politik ve ekonomik iş birliği ve dayanışmayı sağlamaktır. TÜDEV’in, Türk ve akraba toplulukları hakkında her türlü, bilimsel araştırma yapmak, toplantı düzenlemek ve yayınlar yapmak gibi bir misyonu vardır. İşte bu dergi de, bu amaca matuf bilimsel 5 bir çalışmadır. Bu derginin, yayın hayatına devamını sağlayan, Türk Dünyasına yönelik önemli bir hizmet veren ve aynı zamanda uluslararası ilişkiler konusunda bilimsel yayınlar yapan “DENGE” dergisinin yayınlanmasını sağlayan, Vakıf başkanı, Türk milliyetçiliği, Türklük ve Türk dünyasının önemli figürü, Başbakan eski yardımcısı Yıldırım Tuğrul Türkeş’e şükran ve teşekkürlerimi sunarım. Bu vesileyle, dergimize önemli teknik katkı sağlayan TÜDEV üyeleri Sayın Özlem Erdoğan ve Sayın Orhan Dönmezçelik’e şükran ve teşekkürlerimi sunarım. Dergimiz, bilimsel ve etik kurallara bağlıdır. Dergimiz Türk dünyası ve akraba topluluklar konusunu önceleyerek, her türlü bilimsel çalışmaları yayınlama anlayışındadır. Politik, ekonomik, savunma, güvenlik, kültür ve sanat gibi konular yer alacaktır. Dergimiz hakemlidir, dolaysıyla bize gönderilen ve bizim yayın prensiplerimize uygun makaleler ilgili hakemlerin izniyle yayınlanacaktır. Bu sayımızda makalesi yayınlanan bütün arkadaşlara ve hakemlere çok teşekkür ederiz. Üç yıldan bu tarafa, derginin yayınlamasında her türlü emeği olan, değerli akademisyen arkadaşlarımız, Prof. Dr. Yonca İldeş ve Doç. Dr. Şennur Şenel’e ve ayrıca Dilek Altun’a teşekkür ve şükranlarımızı sunarız. Türk Dünyasına ve bilime katkı yapması dileğiyle. Editör Prof. Dr. Haydar Çakmak 6 Hindistan ve Pakistan Arasında ıubat Gerilimi Dilek YİĞİT Özet 26 Şubat 2019 tarihinde Hindistan, Pakistan Khyber- Pakhtunkhwa bölgesindeki Balakot’a hava saldırıları düzenledi. Bu saldırılarda, Hindistan hava güçleri, 1971 yılındaki Hindistan-Pakistan savaşı sonrası Keşmir’i de facto olarak ikiye bölen Kontrol Hattını (LoC) ilk kez aşarak Pakistan topraklarına girmiş oldu. Hindistan’ın saldırıları sonrası Pakistan da Kontrol Hattı (LoC) Doç. Dr. Dilek Yiğit, Araştırmacı. 7 yakınlarındaki Hindistan askeri mevzilerine saldırmaya başladı ve Pakistan uçağı hattı aşarak Hindistan yönetimi altındaki Cemmu ve Keşmir’e girdi. Hindistan ve Pakistan’ı savaşın eşiğine getiren ve “Şubat gerilimi” olarak adlandırdığım bu karşılıklı saldırıların asıl kaynağı Keşmir sorunu muydu? Makalede, bu sorunun yanıtı, Keşmir sorununun nedenleri, Hindistan ve Pakistan’ın soruna dair tutumları, Şubat 2019’da her iki ülke arasında artan gerginliğin gerekçeleri üzerinden aranacaktır. Anahtar Sözcükler: Hindistan-Pakistan İlişkileri, Keşmir Sorunu, Kontrol Hattı (LoC), terörle mücadele. “February Stand-off” Between İndia and Pakistan Summary India launched airstrikes on Balakot in Khyber- Pakhtunkhwa district, Pakistan on February 26, 2019. These airstrikes are the first launched across the LoC (line of control) that is de facto border in Kashmir since a war between the two countries in 1971. In the aftermath of India's attacks, Pakistan responded with air strikes on military installations in Jammu and Kashmir. What is the main reason for these attacks I called “February Stand-Off” which brought India and Pakistan to the brink of war. Is it Kashmir conflict? In this article the answer to this question will be sought through analyzing the causes of Kashmir conflict, the positions of India and Pakistan on Kashmir conflict and tensions running high between them in February 2019. Keywords: Relations between India and Pakistan, Kashmir conflict, Line of Control-LoC, counter terrorism. Giriş Hindistan ve Pakistan arasındaki ilişkiler, bağımsızlıklarını kazandıkları 1947 yılından itibaren savaşlar ve çatışmalar tarafından şekillenmiş, iki ülke arasında kronikleşen 8 gerginlik zaman zaman, yaşanan saldırılar üzerinden, daha da artmıştır. Hindistan ve Pakistan arasındaki sürekli, zaman zaman yükselen gerginliğin asıl kaynağını Keşmir sorunu oluşturmaktadır. Her iki devletin üzerinde hak iddia ettiği Keşmir, tarafların nükleer güç olması nedeniyle, ABD’nin eski başkanlarından Bill Clinton’un ifadesiyle bölgeyi dünyanın en tehlikeli noktası haline getirmiştir.1 Hindistan ve Pakistan’ın savaşın eşiğine geldiğini düşündüren son gerilim ise Şubat 2019’da Hindistan hava kuvvetlerinin, Keşmir’i ayıran Kontrol Hattını (LoC) aşarak Pakistan’da Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa bölgesindeki Balakot’a saldırılar düzenlemesi ile başlamıştır. Saldırılar karşısında Pakistan da Kontrol Hattı ( LoC) yakınlarındaki Hindistan askeri mevzilerine saldırmış ve Pakistan uçağı hattı aşarak Hindistan yönetimindeki Cemmu ve Kemir’e girmiştir.2 Pakistan’ın Hindistan’ın saldırılarına hemen yanıt vermesi Pakistan’ın gerginliği tırmandırmaya hazır olduğu şeklinde okunmuştur. Şubat gerilimi olarak adlandırdığım bu karşılıklı saldırıların kaynağını, Keşmir sorununun oluşturup oluşturmadığına yanıt aramaya yönelik bu makale üç bölümden oluşmaktadır. Birinci bölümde Şubat geriliminin niteliği ve tarafların tavrı ile uluslararası toplumun bu gerilime tepkisi kısaca analiz edilecektir. İkinci bölümde Keşmir sorununun tarihsel gelişimi ve tarafların pozisyonları açıklanacaktır. Üçüncü bölümde ise Keşmir sorununun Şubat geriliminin tek kaynağı olup olmadığı, “iki devlet arasında Keşmir sorunu olmasaydı böyle bir gerilim yaşanır mıydı?” sorusu kapsamında tartışılacaktır. Şubat Gerilimi 14 Şubat 2019 tarihinde patlayıcı yüklü bir taşıt ile Hindistan yönetimindeki Keşmir bölgesindeki Pulwama’da Hindistan askerlerini hedef alan intihar saldırısı neticesinde 44 kişi hayatını kaybetmiştir.3 1 Bhat, 2015. 2 The Diplomat, 28 Şubat 2019. 3 India Today, 18 Şubat 2019. 9 Pulwama saldırısının sorumluluğunu Pakistan merkezli Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) örgütü üstlenmiştir.4 Hindistan Başbakanı Narendra Modi, saldırıyı şiddetle kınarken, hayatlarını kaybeden güvenlik personelinin fedakârlıklarının boşa gitmeyeceğini, tüm ulusun cesur şehitlerin aileleri ile omuz omuza verdiğini açıklamıştır.5 Başbakan Modi’nin bu açıklaması “saldırıyı kınama” ve “ulusal birlik” merkezli
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