Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses www.rsis.edu.sg ISSN 2382-6444 | Volume 11, Issue 4 | April 2019 A JOURNAL OF THE INTERNATIONAL CENTRE FOR POLITICAL VIOLENCE AND TERRORISM RESEARCH (ICPVTR) Profile of Jaish-e-Muhammad and Leader Masood Azhar Farhan Zahid The Pulwama Attack: Significance, Implications and Way Forward Mohammed Sinan Siyech Can Kashmir Turn into Another Marawi? An Assessment Damien D Cheong and Neo Loo Seng Implications of Possible United States Withdrawal on the South Asian Militant Landscape Abdul Basit and Sara Mahmood Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses Volume 9, Issue 4 | April 2017 1 Building a Global Network for Security Editorial Note South Asian Militant Landscape in the Context of the Pulwama Attack and its Aftermath The suicide attack on India’s paramilitary JeM’s enhanced operational capabilities. Central Reserved Police Force (CRPF) in Accumulating 80 kilograms of highly explosive Kashmir’s Pulwama district has once again ‘RDX’ and preparing a VBIED signify the exposed the sharp fault-lines between India expertise of JeM’s cadres. The suicide bomber and Pakistan, pushing them to the brink of war. Adil Rashid Dar was a local Kashmiri, whom The February 2019 attack, claimed by JeM had recruited by exploiting his anger and Pakistan-based anti-India militant group, Jaish- quest for revenge against the Indian state to e-Muhammad (JeM), killed 40 CRPF serve its agenda of ‘liberating’ Kashmir. After personnel. This attack and its aftermath witnessing a dip between 2008 and 2013, underscores a new phase of militancy in violence and militant recruitment have spiked violence-ridden Kashmir and renewed in Kashmir since 2015. The number of militants hostilities between India and Pakistan. killed in Kashmir rose from 130 in 2016 to 200 W in 2017 and 240 in 2018. In the first two India’s retaliatory airstrikes on alleged JeM months of 2019, 31 militants have been killed camps inside mainland Pakistan (after a hiatus in Kashmir. of five decades) have redefined the conflict threshold. In 1999, even at the height of the At the policy level, Pakistan’s response to the Kargil crisis between the two states, the Indian JeM threat is critical. Kinetic measures against air force did not cross the Line of Control. militant groups such as sanctions, arrests and Indian airstrikes signal a qualitative shift in the crackdowns, helpful in the short-term, need to Indian position from the strategy of deterrence- be supplemented. Non-kinetic measures like by-denial to deterrence-by-punishment. an effective counter ideological narrative and a Consequently, this will result in a new unstable comprehensive de-radicalisation and equilibrium, lowering the threshold of a low- rehabilitation plan would be necessary to intensity, limited conflict between India and create incentives for JeM members to shun Pakistan over Kashmir. Moreover, the absence militancy. The larger question is how will of a functional India-Pakistan crisis Pakistan create a counter ideological narrative management mechanism further increases the against JeM without compromising on the probability of a limited conflict. state’s identical stance on Kashmir? Moreover, effective rehabilitation of a large number of The United States (US) and international militants will require massive time and community’s response to the Pulwama attack resources and a strong political will by the and its aftermath is also pertinent. Instead of Pakistani military and political leadership. In urging both India and Pakistan to desist from 2002, when the military regime of General escalation, for the first time, the US and Pervez Musharraf banned JeM and took action international community acknowledged India’s against its cadres, the group retaliated with two right of self-defence and emphasised de- assassination attempts on him, alongside escalation only after Indian airstrikes on several high-profile attacks inside Pakistan. In alleged JeM camps in Balakot. Barring China, the event of another round of crackdowns no other country condemned India’s violation initiated against JeM, a serious backlash of Pakistani sovereignty. This will have long- cannot be ruled out. Moreover, if JeM splinters term implications on strategic stability and as a result of heavy-handed crackdowns, balance of power in South Asia. The Pulwama some of its members might gravitate towards attack has also witnessed emergence of new terror groups like Islamic State of Khorasan interlocutors in India-Pakistan tensions such as (ISK), Al-Qaeda in the Indian Sub-continent China, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and (AQIS) or Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Saudi Arabia. India and Pakistan, beyond proxy warfare, will JeM has 40,000 trained militants in its ranks have to dispassionately discuss the security and returned to Kashmir in 2016 with the challenges arising out of various terrorist Pathankot air base attack. Between then and groups operating in the region. India and the Pulwama attack, it has increased its Pakistan will have to create joint counter- activities and presence in parts of Indian terrorism and counter-extremism frameworks Administered Jammu & Kashmir (IAJK). The to overcome the challenge of militancy, use of a Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosive notwithstanding who launched and supported Device (VBIED) to hit a military convoy in a these groups since the 1980s. Against this highly-militarised zone like Kashmir shows backdrop, the current issue features four Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses Volume 9, Issue 4 | April 2017 2 Editorial Note South Asian Militant Landscape in the Context of the Pulwama Attack and its Aftermath articles looking at different aspects of the turn into a future bastion for the Islamic State Pulwama attack and its aftermath. In the first (IS) akin to Marawi in the Philippines in the article, Farhan Zahid traces the background aftermath of the Pulwama terrorist attack. and current status of JeM and its founder Various arguments are discussed for and Maulana Masood Azhar. The author maintains against such a scenario. On one hand, that Azhar’s ideology had a significant impact continued violence, socio-economic and on the evolution of Kashmir’s militant political instability in Kashmir, similar to the landscape. Headquartered in Pakistani situation in Marawi in 2017, are pull factors for Punjab’s Bahawalpur province, JeM has transnational threat groups such as IS. This is longstanding ties and nexuses with other particularly in light of the recent collapse of IS’ militant groups in the region such as Al-Qaeda territories in Syria/Iraq prompting it to re-group (AQ), the Afghan and Pakistani Taliban and elsewhere. Proponents of the contending view WLashkar-e -Jhangvi (LeJ). These ties have argue that such an outcome is implausible as allowed JeM to evade bans and crackdowns threat groups have thus far failed to effectively from the Pakistani security forces in the past. exploit the Kashmir conflict, given it is framed Notwithstanding information that Azhar is as a territorial and political dispute as opposed critically ill and his brother Mufti Abdul Rauf to an Islamist conflict. By assessing a broad Asghar and brother-in-law Qari Talha are spectrum of scenarios, the article discusses the running JeM’s day-to-day operations, the pitfalls of the Marawi case and how they can be author emphasises the need to create counter- avoided in Kashmir. narratives against Azhar’s violent ideology. The last article by Abdul Basit and Sara The second article by Mohammed Sinan Mahmood looks at the security and Siyech dissects the Pulwama attack using geopolitical implications of possible US Louise Richardson’s conceptual framework of withdrawal from Afghanistan on South Asia’s the Three Rs (Revenge, Renown and complex and diverse militant landscape in the Reaction). According to the author, the context of the Pulwama attack. After 9/11, the Pulwama attack manifested all three Rs US presence in Afghanistan had kept India- making it a highly successful attack for the Pakistan tensions under control to ensure JeM. The suicide bomber was seeking revenge Islamabad’s cooperation in the border areas to for repeated arrests and humiliation faced at track and hunt AQ remnants. A case in point is the hands of Indian security forces. JeM also the US-brokered 2003 cease fire agreement drew maximum attention from mainstream and between India and Pakistan. Now that the war social media in the aftermath of the attack. The in Afghanistan is nearing its end, tensions attack centre-staged Kashmir as a core dispute between the two South Asian nuclear rivals between India and Pakistan and a nuclear over Kashmir threaten to provide fresh fuel for flashpoint that needed serious international regional militancy and bilateral tensions to attention. It also prompted immediate reactions persist. It seems that several militant groups from India in the form of retaliatory airstrikes on like JeM which diverted their fighters to JeM camps in Balakot, escalation of India- Afghanistan after 9/11 to assist the Afghan Pakistan tensions and stringent security Taliban in fighting the US are now returning to measures in Kashmir. The author argues that their old conflict zones through incidents like such security measures in Kashmir would likely the Pulwama attack. The Afghan Taliban’s provide JeM with fresh recruits and funding. To perceived victory in Afghanistan will create a mitigate this likelihood, there is need to triumphant jihadist narrative for a plethora of examine India’s domestic responses in militant groups in the region, giving them new Kashmir, with continued diplomatic pressure on zeal and fervour which will make the South Pakistan to take action against anti-India Asian militant landscape more lethal and militant groups. It is also necessary to violent. strengthen international ties to ensure timely information and intelligence sharing to curtail terrorist networks and their financing. The next article by Damien Chong and Neo Loo Seng discusses whether Kashmir could Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses Volume 9, Issue 4 | April 2017 3 ADVISORY BOARD Dr.