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Transboundary Environmental Stressors on India-Pakistan Relations

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Transboundary Environmental Stressors on India-Pakistan Relations Title: Subtitle C O R P O R A T I O N MICHELLE E. MIRO, MIRIAM ELIZABETH MARLIER, RICHARD S. GIRVEN Transboundary Environmental Stressors on India- Pakistan Relations An Analysis of Shared Air and Water Resources AUTHOR For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR2715 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2019 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Cover: left, iStock.com/MaytheeVoran; right, Gtsenthilnath. Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface This report addresses an important, yet sometimes overlooked, potential flashpoint between India and Pakistan: the ongoing discourse by governments, news media, and citizens over transboundary water resources and air quality between India and Pakistan. Each nation has continued to express concerns over the perceived impacts from water resources development plans and air pollution from agricultural burning. Yet the conversation about shared air and water resources between the two nations could benefit from tangible science and analysis on the actual causes and effects of water and agricultural management activities. This report is an initial step in that direction. It details the results of a preliminary pilot study intended to spur future in-depth research. We provide a first-order assessment of the potential capacity of 13 hydroelectric projects to effectively control downstream flows in Pakistan along the Chenab River—a major tributary of the Indus River that has its source in India and flows through both nations. We also examine the influence of agricultural burning from the Punjab State in India, as well as from an approximately equivalent area across the border in Pakistan, on air pollution in both countries. Finally, this report details the implications of our research on policy debate and decisions in South Asia and outlines follow-on research that could be instrumental to formulating policies related to the shared use of water and air between India and Pakistan. RAND Ventures The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND Ventures is a vehicle for investing in policy solutions. Philanthropic contributions support our ability to take the long view, tackle tough and often-controversial topics, and share our findings in innovative and compelling ways. RAND’s research findings and recommendations are based on data and evidence, and therefore do not necessarily reflect the policy preferences or interests of its clients, donors, or supporters. Funding for this venture was provided by gifts from RAND supporters and income from operations. This work was conducted within the RAND Center for Asia Pacific Policy (CAPP). CAPP is part of International Programs at the RAND Corporation. CAPP provides analysis on political, social, economic, and technological developments in and around the Asia Pacific. Through research and analysis, CAPP helps public and private decisionmakers solve problems, tackle challenges, and identify ways to make society safer, smarter, and more prosperous. iii For more information on the RAND Center for Asia Pacific Policy, see www.rand.org/international_programs/capp or contact the director (contact information is provided on the webpage). iv Contents Preface ........................................................................................................................................... iii Figures ............................................................................................................................................ vi Tables ........................................................................................................................................... vii Summary ...................................................................................................................................... viii Acknowledgments ........................................................................................................................... x Abbreviations ................................................................................................................................. xi 1. Stressed Resources: Water and Air ............................................................................................. 1 Water ......................................................................................................................................................... 1 Air ............................................................................................................................................................ 3 Objectives .................................................................................................................................................. 4 2. Water: Sharing the Flow? ............................................................................................................ 5 Methodology ........................................................................................................................................... 10 Results ..................................................................................................................................................... 17 Conclusions ............................................................................................................................................. 19 3. Clearing the Air ......................................................................................................................... 21 Methodology ........................................................................................................................................... 22 Results ..................................................................................................................................................... 25 Conclusions ............................................................................................................................................. 28 4. Policy Implications and Future Work ........................................................................................ 30 Water ....................................................................................................................................................... 30 Air .......................................................................................................................................................... 32 Coordinated Transboundary Management .............................................................................................. 35 Appendix A. Geopolitical Context ................................................................................................ 38 Appendix B. Atmospheric Back Trajectory Analysis ................................................................... 41 References ..................................................................................................................................... 43 v Figures Figure 1.1. Overview of Shared Water and Air Resources Across the Indian-Pakistani Border .... 2 Figure 2.1. Hectares Under Production for Principal Crops in Pakistan ......................................... 9 Figure 2.2. Hydroelectric Projects Along the Chenab River in India ........................................... 14 Figure 2.3. Hydroelectric Project Total Storage Capacity Scenarios, Chenab River .................... 15 Figure 2.4. Annual Chenab River Flow, Inflow at Marala Barrage .............................................. 16 Figure 2.5. Degree of Regulation Under Different Storage and Flow Scenarios, Chenab River ......................................................................................................................... 18 Figure 3.1. Cumulative Fire Radiative Power (in Megawatts) for the Punjab Region in Pakistan and India, January 2010– December 2014 .............................................................. 26 Figure 3.2. Daily Satellite Fire Radiative Power Detections for the Punjab Regions in India and Pakistan ........................................................................................................................... 26 Figure 3.3. Atmospheric Trajectories of Air Parcels from Pakistan and India in Peak Spring Burning Seasons, 2010–2014 ...............................................................................................
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