This dossier is a collection of work created for Foresight Studio SFIN 6018-19 for Fall/Winter 2015-2016. Submitted to Suzanne Stein and Stuart Candy March 2, 2016

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commerical-ShareAlike 4.0 International License To view a copy of this license, please visit: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/ WHAT’S ON THE TABLE?

FORESIGHTS ON FOOD IN 2030, INCLUDING IMPLICATIONS AND STRATEGIES FOR LOBLAWS

HALA BEISHA JANICE DE JONG DONNA KLAIMAN ROXANNE NICOLUSSI JENNY WHYTE Food is our common ground, a universal experience. James Beard TABLE OF CONTENTS

INTRODUCTION 6 APPENDICES 114

BIOS 112

CONCLUSION 108 CLIENT PROFILE 10

TIME MACHINE 102 SCANNING 16

STRATEGIES 82

SCENARIOS 58 Image source: Lernert & Sander for De Volkskrant, http://lernertandsander.com/cubes/ 6 INTRODUCTION

“The real act of discovery consists not in finding new lands but seeing with new eyes.” Marcel Proust

Food preparation, consumption and enjoyment is our common ground. It is an inextricable part of the human experience. It is part of our cultural identity. It is how we express ourselves. It is a key part of how we choose to connect with others. Throughout history, hunter-gatherer societies and nomadic settlements were in close proximity to areas where humans could access food. Spice routes that linked parts of Asia, Europe and the Middle East traded in much coveted food items. Cities directly on these routes enjoyed tremendous economic prosperity. Viewed as a key and vital resource, wars were fought over access to food. Cutting off food supplies during wars was and is still an effective technique to conquer lands and their people.

FOOD AND SOCIETY Every day and around the world people are preoccupied with food. People from all walks of life and ethnic backgrounds come together to buy, prepare and enjoy food together. It is a rich and varied aspect of our lives that weaves together elements of the past with the demands of the present.

Food is the common thread that brings people together in celebration and mourning. Business deals are signed and political enemies negotiate compromises at the dinner table. Food is the one equalizer where people come together to enjoy elaborate tapas in Spain, a five-course meal in Paris or a simple chow mein at a food stand in Beijing.

Against a backdrop of globalization, urbanization, and increased population growth, a number of critical issues have been brought to the fore. Current factors that impact the food scene include: the effects of genetically modified foods, industrial farming practices, food security issues; food inequality despite large production capacities, profit making and distribution practices; and the politicization of food labelling.

7 INTRODUCTION

CURRENT FOOD ISSUES Despite the abundance of food in Canada today, there has never been a time in our history when there is so much at stake for the health and the sustainability of the planet. Questions being debated on the world stage and in cities across Canada include: Is access to food a right? Who controls food production, policies, and companies? What is the role of ordinary citizens? Do people have a say in the quality of food? What are the long-term health implications of consuming certain types of food? What is the moral obligation of companies and private citizens? How do we come together to celebrate our different food tastes and heritage? How do we provide food to those without access?

DOSSIER LAYOUT AND THE BIGGER PICTURE These are a number of the questions that linger in the background as this compilation of work sets out to examine the future of food in 2030. This document sets out to identify drivers of change in the external environment that have an impact on emerging food trends. It is these food trends that will shape consumers purchasing decisions and influence what is on the table. The report is titled “What’s on the Table” to illustrate the potential diversity of food options and how they might be part of the dining table of the future.

Rich contextual information generated by trend scanning then led to the generation of four different probable scenarios using foresight methodology. From the scenarios, specific informed statements are drawn to create an immersive experience referred to as a “time machine”. Finally, an intricate weaving of the findings of each section was used to inform the strategic discussion of the key stakeholder. For the purpose of this report, our stakeholder is Loblaws, a key purveyor of food items with locations across the country and the resources and track record to shape the future.

It is important to note that the act of foresighting and scenario planning is not an exact science but an art. The main objective is not to provide definitive answers but to inform Loblaws’ strategic discussion to create capacity. Inayatullah (2008) states: “At a deeper level futures thinking can create capacity. It is not about predicting correctly or getting the strategy right, but about enhancing our confidence to create the future we desire.”

REFERENCE Inayatullah, S (2008). Six pillars: Futures thinking for transforming. Foresight 10 (1) 4-21. 8 There is no sincerer love than the love of food. George Bernard Shaw

9 Image source: http://torontolife.com/food/fancy-new-st-clair-west-loblaws/ 10 CLIENT PROFILE

To better understand a client, it is important to bring into focus certain aspects of that organization’s operation and strategic direction. Engagement in strategic conversations with a client, as part of any scenario planning exercise, is an ongoing process that allows for the incorporation of new ideas and encourages organizational learning and adaptation.

This section highlights key points of interest that point to Loblaws’ heritage of embracing innovation and their willingness to invest in the changes needed to pounce on emerging consumer trends and demographic shifts. Our understanding of Loblaws is a key part of the dossier that lingers in the background of our foresight process. It is important to note that Loblaws operates a number of different stores in its diverse portfolio that includes No Frills and Price Chopper to name a few. The document will look at the totality of the Loblaws offering with respect to food.

HISTORY Loblaws was founded in 1919 by Pringle Loblaw and J. Milton Cork . At the time they introduced a new concept in grocery retailing, combining self-serve and cash-and-carry. Customers no longer had to wait for a clerk to fetch items from behind a store counter. Loblaw and Cork were told it would never work. Charles B. Shields, another prominent Toronto grocer, soon joined the partnership. Sales grew as customers took advantage of better quality goods at lower prices. Within a decade, the Loblaw chain has grown to over 70 stores in Ontario alone. It is this entrepreneurial spirit that allowed the company to expand to become Canada’s leading food and pharmacy purveyor.

In 1978, Loblaws introduced No Name products. With their distinctive yellow packaging and bold lettering these products offer savings over name brands while matching their quality. In the 80’s Loblaws went on to introduce President’s Choice products. These gained a devoted following among shoppers and the Insider’s Report was launched. It was filled with recipes and product recommendations.

11 ABOUT LOBLAWS

This was closely followed by the launch of President’s Choice Green Products that introduced more than 100 ‘environmentally friendly’ and ‘body friendly’ items in 1989. Loblaws went on to expand into the mortgage business through the successful introduction of PC Financial (1996). Clothing brand Joe Fresh made its debut (2006) and the only thing missing from the fashionable line was the high price. Over the years Loblaws worked to reduce its carbon footprint and introduced a supplier code conduct. This was followed by supporting the use of renewable energy in many of its stores.

Image above: First Loblaws at 511 Yonge Street, 1919. The Guiding Star program was introduced in 2012 allowing Image source: http://www.thedrake.ca/blog/2012/05/vintage- consumers to make better food choices. In 2015, the company highlighted its purpose to “Live Life Well”– which was ultimately toronto-historic-snapshots/ anchored in the health and wellbeing of Canadians. This is especially true after Loblaws bought out Shoppers Drug Mart to become a nutrition, health and wellness provider.

THE EVOLUTION OF THE BRAND - LOOKING AHEAD Greater integration of wellness services There is an even greater need for better wellness options with the growing number of Baby Boomers, and the offloading of medical services and a growing need for preventative healthcare options. Loblaws and Shoppers stores offer access to services that allow for improved patient care.

12 Building of trust and one on one relationships with customers In an increasing number of stores, in-house dietitians educate and advise customers to maintain or improve their nutrition, often in partnership with store pharmacists. The focus is on building trust and Image above: Newly renovated Loblaws at Maple Leaf customer relationships through services and loyalty programs. Gardens in Toronto. Image source: Iam_chihang via https:// commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Loblaws_at_Maple_Leaf_ Consolidation of two powerful loyalty programs Gardens_Toronto_Canada.jpg The PC Rewards system is consolidated with Shopper’s Drug Mart Optimum program. The integration of the two programs has resulted in the creation of a highly personalized loyalty program that sends offers digitally via a smartphone app and adjusts to the different life stages in a customer’s life (e.g.: a child, an aging parent or embarking on a new commitment for wellness). PC Plus is to become Canada’s first integrated wellness loyalty platform, supported by loyalty and sales data.

Gambling on new ideas Loblaws was one of first companies to introduce organic foods under the PC brand. Pundits believe the company has a great ability to leverage consumer trends early and it is willing to invest heavily to make those important strategic shifts (Brown, 2015).

A competitive e-commerce platform This allows consumers to place orders and pick them up at stores or have them delivered to certain locations (Strauss, 2014).

13 ABOUT LOBLAWS

Sustained heavy price competition Loblaws continues to face heavy competition from Walmart, which Image above: screenshot of Loblaws’ website features their launched plans to expand its network of stores and to offer fresh click and collect online shopping system. produce (Nguyen, 2015). Other competitors include big box chains Image source: http://shop.loblaws.ca such as Costco. This competition continues to place significant pressure on margins.

A changing landscape It is expected that greater numbers of people will be living in urban centers where accessibility will be key. As such, urban consumers who fit this profile are willing to pay a premium for healthy prepared food items, wellness products, prescriptions and vitamins. David Soberman, Canadian national chair of strategic marketing at Rotman School of Management in Toronto states that “I do believe that to enable growth in the food industry is to sell products at a premium by focusing on health products. The Shoppers deal makes sense by reaching out to market factions that are looking for products with health benefits” (Thompson, 2013). 14 REFERENCES A Brief History of Loblaws Supermarkets | Loblaws. (n.d.). Retrieved February 18, 2016, from http://www.loblaws.ca/en_CA/community/ who-we-are.html Image above: Former Shoppers Drug Mart President Dominic Pilla (left) with Loblaws CEO Galen Weston at a press Brown, M. (2015, March 23). How Loblaws stays on the cutting conference in 2013, shortly after Loblaws purchased Shoppers edge after 96 years. Retrieved February 19, 2016, from http://www. for 12.4 billion dollars. Image source: Canadian Press/Michelle canadianbusiness.com/innovation/most-innovative-companies-2015- loblaw/ Siu via http://www.cp24.com/news/weston-takes-over-daily- operations-at-loblaw-shoppers-head-to-exit-1.1917751 Khrashinsky, S. (2014, September 17). Loblaw targets food-savvy Canadians in major marketing overhaul. Retrieved February 18, 2016, from http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/industry- news/marketing/loblaw-targets-food-savvy-ca

Nguyen, L. (2015, September 03). Loblaw’s Massive Expansion Plan. Retrieved February 18, 2016, from http://www.huffingtonpost. ca/2015/03/09/loblaw-plans-on-opening-5_n_6829712.html

Strauss, M. (2014, May 02). Loblaw plans to battle Amazon and Wal-Mart with online food operation. Retrieved February 18, 2016, from http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/loblaw- plans-to-battle-amazon-and-wal-mart-with-online-food-operation/ article18375627/

Thompson, R. (2013, December 16). Deal of the year: A big bet on small stores. Retrieved February 18, 2016, from http://listedmag. com/2013/12/deal-of-the-year-a-big-bet-on-small-stores/ 15 Image source: Janice de Jong 16 SCANNING

To gain an understanding of the main trends affecting what’s on the table in 2030, we performed a scan of current trends in the food industry. Given that food cuts across many aspects of our lives, we took a broad approach, examining the emerging movements in society, technology, the economy, the environment, politics and values, and the potential impact these changes could have on food systems as a whole. The figure below outlines the trends with respect to each realm.

SOCIETY Rise of Meal Sharing Platforms, The Need for Seeds, Rebranding the Gross Kitchens of the Future TECHNOLOGY Forever Fresh, The Zero Mile Diet, Digital Gastronomy, Rise of the Machine, Genetically Modified Meat, Cultured Food, Future of Food Shopping ECONOMICS Low Income? Low Health. ENVIRONMENT Eco Conscious Dining, Rethinking Food “Waste”, Fighting Colony Collapse, Fishing for Solutions POLITICS Label Gazing, Recognising Animal Sentience VALUES The People vs. Food Science, Bodies as a Resource

This scan revealed an increasing and widespread awareness of the deficiencies in our food system, as well as an increase in opportunities and efforts to drive real change. These movements are manifesting on the individual level, the institutional level, or in a combination of the two (Figure below). The following pages outline these emerging trends and their potential implications for what’s on the table.

INDIVIDUAL CHANGE BOTH INDIVIDUAL + INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE (SMALL SCALE) INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE (LARGE SCALE)

17 SOCIETY RISE OF MEAL SHARING PLATFORMS

The rise and success of meal sharing platforms in cities around the world, INDIVIDUAL CHANGE BOTH INDIVIDUAL + INSTITUTIONAL with the aim of helping people connect offline and enjoy healthier home (SMALL SCALE) INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE CHANGE (LARGE SCALE) cooked options.

DESCRIPTION The rise of the sharing economy has been well documented over the last number of years with the success of the likes of Airbnb and other sharing outlets that will lend you anything from power tools to a fondue set for entertaining. This trend has created an acceptance and thirst for the co creation of shared experiences. Throughout the years, meals and food have always brought people together in celebration and mourning. As such, it is no wonder that in our time strapped, attention starved society there are those looking for both the home cooked meal and a genuine human connection that is authentic.

MATURITY This trend is likely to continue to rise and grow as greater numbers of people move into urban cities. it in those cities that diners of all ages will be looking to access such meal sharing platforms. Image above: an eatwith group sharing a Middle Eastern brunch in Manhattan. Photo by Ellon Paz. Photo credit: Fox News: http://www.foxnews.com/leisure/2013/09/27/ SIGNALS super-club-websites-make-eating-with-strangers-easier/ • Meal sharing platform Eatwith has experienced a rapid rollout with 39 unique eating options in 10 new city locations in over a • According to Fast Company the sharing economy is estimated at month (Bell, 2013). $2 billion dollars (Reid, 2014). • “Peer-to-peer dining” is the next frontier of the sharing economy • Food collective Mealku. People who do not know each other (Airbnb and Uber) ( Johansan, 2015). cook homemade food and swap dishes that are freshly prepared (Badger, 2013). • Emergence of sites such as Eatwith.com, suppershare.com and feastly that allow the traveller to experience the country like • Kitchen surfing that has chefs show up and cook for host and a local and allow for the enjoyment of more intimate dinning guests. settings ( Johansan, 2015). • Cookapp offers different variations of the cooking and sharing • This form of dining creates space for people to connect offline concepts in cities around the world (Day, 2014). over food and to share home cooked healthier options, while reducing waste (Kandel, 2014).

18 SCANNING

IMPLICATIONS REFERENCES • During times of economic slowdown and recession these meal 1. Badger, E. (2013, August 27). Why Home-Cooking From Total Strangers May Be sharing platforms provide attractive alternatives that are easy on the Future of Food. Retrieved November 22, 2015, from http://www.citylab.com/ tech/2013/08/sharing-economy-want-change-way-you-eat-dinner/6389/ the wallet and heavy on the experience aspects 2. Bell, A. (2013, September 27). Meal sharing platforms make eating with strangers • There are implications for the restaurant business but more easier than ever. Retrieved November 22, 2015, from http://www.foxnews.com/ importantly it will allow for the preparation and consumption of leisure/2013/09/27/super-club-websites-make-eating-with-strangers-easier/ healthier food options with less waste 3. Day, A. (2014, November 26). Meal sharing, kitchensurfing and chef hosting. • It creates an opportunity for people to connect and is likely to Retrieved November 22, 2015, from http://experience.usatoday.com/ improve the mental health of urban city dwellers. This creates a food-and-wine/story/news-festivals-events/food/2014/11/26/meal-sharing- services/70054942/ healthier mind body connection. 4. Johansan, M. (2015, April 30). Eat with strangers, make money? Retrieved RELATED TRENDS November 22, 2015, from http://www.bbc.com/capital/story/20150429-eat-with- strangers-make-money • Clustering and offering of other services inspired by the sharing economy 5. Kandal, S. (2014, June 19). Meal Sharing is the Newest Player in the Sharing Economy. Retrieved November 22, 2015, from http://cityminded.org/meal- • Creation of online communication tools that allow for the sharing sharing-newest-player-sharing-economy-11200 of such experiences 6. Pang, S. (. (n.d.). World Travel Market Global Trends Report 2014Global Trends • Establishing of more robust support networks in fast paced urban Report - Key Findings. Retrieved November 22, 2015. centers 7. Reid, A. (2014, January 21). 3 Ways Brands Can Survive The Sharing Economy In • Counter trend would be all about the single diner consuming 2014. Retrieved November 22, 2015, from http://www.fastcoexist.com/3024443/3- highly processed ready to heat meals at home while watching TV. ways-brands-can-survive-the-sharing-economy-in-2014

19 SOCIETY THE NEED FOR SEEDS: THE MOVE TOWARD COMMUNITY SEED RESOURCES INDIVIDUAL CHANGE BOTH INDIVIDUAL + INSTITUTIONAL A move toward protecting the commons as a community, through (SMALL SCALE) INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE CHANGE (LARGE SCALE) communal seed resources.

DESCRIPTION Driven by food insecurity, seed-saving has been an important tool in preserving and improving food accessibility for the future. Increasingly more seed- saving organizations have been showing up, with the aim to conserve genetic crop diversity, to protect farmers’ roles as seed innovators and stewards of the land, and to reinvigorate seed research and education¹. Resources that enable the public to borrow, trade, and save seeds have become increasingly more common.

MATURITY Seed-saving has matured well, but communal seed resources have been growing significantly in size and popularity as of late.

SIGNALS • Toronto Seed Library is a place where people can pick up free Image above: example of a table belonging to a seed library seeds, but must try to save some seeds and return them to the from source: http://heritagegarden.uic.edu/seedlibrary/ library. This little-known resource is increasing in size and popularity. ² biodiversity of the planet by defending of the freedom of the • Seed Matters encourages and supports community seed projects, seed to evolve in integrity, self-organisation, and diversity. They as well as promoting the exchange of seeds, knowledge, and say, “Our diverse seeds, used in agroecological systems produce skills.³ more food and nutrition per acre and are the systems produce • Heirloomseedswap.com has grown into the number one free seed more food and nutrition per acre and are the real solution to swap site in the world. ⁴ Regardless of where online communities hunger and malnutrition, not GMOs. Our evolutionary seeds, like this one have started, they serve as a worldwide resource – continuously adapting to climate change, are the real answer for connecting like-minded individuals in an effort to protect the climate adaptation and resilience, not GMOS now packaged as world‘s commons. “Climate Smart Agriculture”. ⁶ • Svalbard Global Seed Vault is the world’s largest secure seed storage, opened by the Norwegian Government in February IMPLICATIONS 2008. ⁵ • The fact that this trend encourages many people of different • The Global Movement for Seed Freedom protects the walks of life to use and return seeds provides opportunity for

20 SCANNING

modification of the seeds, specifically genetic modification and/or 3. Community Seed Toolkit. (n.d.). Retrieved November 25, 2015, from http:// hybridity. Genetic modification can be seen as both positive and seedmatters.org/about-us/programs/community-seed-toolkit/ negative. 4. The Free Seed Exchange. (n.d.). Retrieved November 25, 2015, from http://www. heirloomseedswap.com/ • The increasing popularity of community seed resources 5. Svalbard Global Seed Vault. (n.d.). Retrieved November 25, 2015, from https:// may influence a movement of other community resources. www.regjeringen.no/en/topics/food-fisheries-and-agriculture/landbruk/svalbard- Possibilities may include storage, banking, storing emergency global-seed-vault/id462220/ products for the community, and many more. 6. Our Resolve, Our Commitment. (n.d.). Retrieved November 25, 2015, from • A strengthened community resource bank is likely to result in a http://seedfreedom.info/global-movement-for-seed-freedom-our-resolve-our- commitment/ strengthened community, which can lead to perceived comfort, safety and unity in applied areas. 7. Researchers Can Now Predict Plant Flowering Time. (2015, October 26). Retrieved November 25, 2015, fromhttp://seedworld.com/researchers-can-now-predict- plant-flowering-time/ RELATED TRENDS 8. Cellular Damage Control System Helps Plants Tough it Out. (2015, October 29). • A recent discovery found that plants adapt their flowering time Retrieved November 25, 2015, from http://seedworld.com/cellular-damage- to ambient temperatures, providing ways in which the flowering control-system-helps-plants-tough-it-out/ time can be predicted on the basis of genetic information. ⁷ This may lead to the ability to switch flowering on or off and thus respond to changes in the climate. • New research reveals details into a fundamental mechanism of how plants manage their energy intake, which could potentially be harnessed to improve yield. 8This could be used by seed community users to plan around growth cycles more accurately and to enhance their likelihood of getting certain results.

REFERENCES 1. Hartnett, K. (2014, March 9). ‘Seed libraries’ try to save the world’s plants. Retrieved November 25, 2015, from http://www.bostonglobe. com/ideas/2014/03/09/seed-libraries-try-save-world-plants/ XnM6HJ8GCfPoo6JWtU6DQL/story.html 2. Toronto Seed Library. (n.d.). Retrieved November 25, 2015, from http://www. torontoseedlibrary.org/ Image above: example of a table belonging to a seed library from source: http://heritagegar

21 SOCIETY REBRANDING THE GROSS Disguising socially stigmatized elements in food is changing our perception INDIVIDUAL CHANGE BOTH INDIVIDUAL + INSTITUTIONAL (SMALL SCALE) INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE of what is “normal” when it comes to food. CHANGE (LARGE SCALE)

DESCRIPTION With an increase in society’s health consciousness, research has been looking into replacing animal meat with healthier, more environmentally friendly source of protein.1 Making unpalatable palatable is changing what is considered normal food, thus causing a cultural shift towards what was once unpalatable. Insects and Algae are two examples of atypical food ingredients that are being introduced as typical. They have both been ground into flour and used in common products. Upon noticing that many North Americans would not be immediately open to consuming these, bugs, algae and other cultural taboos have been increasingly disguised as everything – even milk and cookies.

MATURITY This trend is just the beginning. As our resources continue to deplete, alternative sources of nutrients will become necessities and so will making them acceptable in our culture. Image above: “Exo’s peanut butter-and-jelly bar contains about 40 ground-up crickets and has a familiar nutty, sweet flavor” 3 SIGNALS • Algae Milk and Cookies²: as health benefits are found in more between plate and meal or dimming the lights which have been sources that would not typically be eaten, several formulae and proven to change the perceived taste of food. Things aren’t always recipes are experimented with. One would typically not eat algae what they seem to be. out of a pond, but it is hard to say no to milk and cookies. • Cricket flour³: On that note, by grinding crickets into a flour-like IMPLICATIONS substance, they can now replace typical flour in some dishes. The • If claims about the health benefits of certain atypical sources are top right photo shows Exo, a snack bar that contains 40 crickets. true, their implementation into our society may cause significant “Exo’s peanut butter-and-jelly bar contains about 40 ground-up health improvements across the population. crickets and has a familiar nutty, sweet flavor”³. • If healthier alternatives can be disguised and/ or manipulated to • Fooling perception to make food taste better⁴: tactics that provide taste better, people will have less of reason to eat unhealthy. a way to fool one’s perception about their food are changing the possibilities of what is on our plates. Examples include ways for • If what is currently abnormal becomes the future norm, there diners to react differently to their food such as a higher contrast will be a great cultural and societal change in eating styles, as well

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as eating habits. The more accepting our culture is of eating the REFERENCES abnormal, the more our diets contain said abnormality. 1. ‘Insect Pizza,’ ‘Bug Mac’ Foods of the Future? : DNews. (2011, January 23). Retrieved November 25, 2015, from http://news.discovery.com/human/insects-food-worms- • If alternative sources of protein are used, this may be better for environment-110123.htm the animals that are currently being used such as pigs and cows. However, this could raise ethical issues of which species deserves 2. Zax, D. (2010, December 15). For Eco-Friendly Santas: Algae Milk and Cookies. Retrieved November 25, 2015, from http://www.fastcompany.com/1709540/eco- to be saved and which species deserves to be eaten. friendly-santas-algae-milk-and-cookies • A decrease in the now atypical sources could drastically change 3. McCaul, A. (2014, August 21). Startups Pitch Cricket Flour As The Best Protein the ecosystems around them. You Could Eat. Retrieved November 25, 2015, from http://www.npr.org/sections/ thesalt/2014/08/15/340653853/startups-pitch-cricket-flour-as-the-best-protein- • The use of alternative sources could cause financially friendly you-could-eat ways to get nutrients which could improve food security OR it 4. Veigas, J. (2015, March 27). 10 Food Tricks That Fool Our Perception :DNews. could be less financially friendly and increase food security Retrieved November 25, 2015, from http://news.discovery.com/human/ psychology/10-food-tricks-that-fool-our-perception-150326.htm • Because newer sources have less research history, their use poses a possibility of decrease in illness and disease OR an increase in illness and disease

Image above: Algae milk and cookies2

23 SOCIETY KITCHENS OF THE FUTURE Domestic kitchens are being transformed where new design approaches INDIVIDUAL CHANGE BOTH INDIVIDUAL + INSTITUTIONAL (SMALL SCALE) INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE will change the dining experience CHANGE (LARGE SCALE)

DESCRIPTION “The worlds of design and food are coming together. Changing lifestyles and attitudes are also helping to drive profound change in what was once the most utilitarian of rooms” (Dezeen Magazine, 2010).

MATURITY This trend is likely to grow as rapid prototyping, high-tech home farming, and sophisticated and low-energy systems make their way into the kitchen of the future.

SIGNALS Society • The art exhibition at the Milan Food Expo 2015 explored the themes such as the presence of food, places for eating together, Image above: The close connection between food, design and technology will bring nourishment, and technology (http://www.expo2015.org/en). new ways to experience our kitchens. From http://www.dezeen.com/2010/11/22/ food-and-design-report • Cutting-edge chefs, kitchen brands, restaurateurs, and supermarkets are increasingly turning to designers to give their offerings added cultural relevance and commercial appeal (http:// Economic arabeschidilatte.org). • Avant-garde designer, Mike Meiré (2007), explored the possibility • Olivia des Descaris (2009), a food designer, reports, “We are of the kitchen as a source of fresh food. The Farm Project is a trying to design food as we design [other] materials. The most kitchen installation as a workshop for the senses. Sheep, pigs, fish, obvious manifestation of designers’ new fascination with food is and rabbits abound in a barn-like kitchen. the way they now view foodstuffs as a material to work with. Like Technology wood, metals and plastics, food is something they can take into the workshop, and experiment with.” • French designer Mathieu Lehanneur, (2015), created a domestic tank for breeding fish for consumption that doubles as a vegetable • Dombracht a manufacturer of kitchen fixtures describes itself as garden; salads and greens are grown in glass pods floating on the “culturing life” by offering health, intelligence, and aesthetics with water and are fertilized by fish waste. its kitchen products and services (https://www.dornbracht.com/ en-ca/). • Technological advances in 3D manufacturing that allow three- dimensional objects to be “printed” at low cost means such

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techniques could soon be used in the domestic kitchen to prepare 4. Dombracht, Retrieved on February 16, 2016 from https://www.dornbracht.com/ en-ca/. your dinner (NASA, 2013) 5. Eggenkamp A. (2010) /Chairwoman Executive Design Academy Eindhoven/ Values via Ventura. Retrieved on February 16, 2016 from https://www.youtube. com/watch?v=we3p_G7ULCUhttp://cdn3.hometone.com/wp-content/ • Ethical considerations have risen to the fore when it comes to uploads/2012/07/dzn_milan-kitchen-by-gitta-gschwendtner-4_InllE_1822.jpg choosing a new kitchen. Consumers are demanding cost- efficient 6. Lehanneur, M. (2015) Design Mathieu Lehanneur. Arts Magazine. Retrieved on February 16, 2016 from http://www.mathieulehanneur.fr/ low energy systems; and pollution and waste reduction. pressebank/54aa666220ecc.pdf. • The notion of provenance – where something comes from – has 7. Milan Food Expo (2015) Retrieved on February 16, 2016 from http://www. consensuseconomics.com/News_and_Articles/Future_Food_Supply_Issues420. become highly important in this new value system, with people htm . expecting transparency and honesty about the origin of goods 8. Miere, M. (2007) The Workshop as a Kitchen. Retrieved on February 16, 2016 and ingredients. from https://www.dornbracht.com/en/culture-projects/edges/the-farm-project/. 9. NASA. (2013). 3D Printing: Food in Space. Retrieved on February 16, 2016 from http://www.nasa.gov/directorates/spacetech/home/feature_3d_food.html#. IMPLICATIONS VlpFb4Rhffg. The kitchen of the future will take on many forms yet continue to 10. Vogelzang, M. Proef Restaurant. Retrieved on February 16, 2016 from http://www. be a gathering space where food can be raised to an art form, where proefamsterdam.nl/ experiments and innovation take place and where people can enjoy the sensory elements of food in the company of friends and family. Designers will continue to be part of the food revolution by planning sustainable home kitchen environments with tools that will be cost- effective and energy efficient.

RELATED TRENDS Molecular Gastronomy, Forever Fresh, 3D Food Printing (see “Digital Gastronomy”)

REFERENCES 1. Arabeschi di Latte. Retrieved on February 16, 2016 from http://www. arabeschidilatte.org 2. Dezeen Magazine. (2010). Dezeen Limited for Scholtès. Retrieved on February 16, 2016 from http://www.consensuseconomics.com/News_and_Articles/Future_ Image above: The cross-fertilization between food and design is already having Food_Supply_Issues420.htm . a marked impact on the way people prepare and enjoy food. From http://www. 3. Descaris, O. (2009) Retrieved on February 16, 2016 from http://www.oliviadecaris. com. dezeen.com/2010/11/22/food-and-design-report 25 TECHNOLOGY FOREVER FRESH

From High Pressure Processing to bacteria-sensing materials to food pow- INDIVIDUAL CHANGE BOTH INDIVIDUAL + INSTITUTIONAL ders, innovative methods for long-term food preservation are increasing (SMALL SCALE) INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE CHANGE (LARGE SCALE) food security, minimizing waste, and boosting food safety.

DESCRIPTION With increasing consumer awareness of food waste¹, concerns over food scarcity², and frequent tainted food recalls³, there is a growing desire to explore new ways of preserving food freshness and safety. New treatments, such as HPP (High Pressure Processing)⁴ and chitosan/lyzozyme⁵ treatments are creating new ways to preserve food without sacrificing flavour or texture. Meanwhile, methods of analyzing food for harmful bacteria with responsive colour changing materials reassure customers that their food is safe⁶. For food that is near expiry, powders made of food waste present ways of extending the utility of off and potentially presents intriguing new ingredients to our diet⁷. These methods ensure that our food is safer for a longer time with less waste.

MATURITY

While some technologies, such as HPP, are more established, many Image above: Examples of FoPo, a a freeze-dried food powder made of near-expired of these preservation techniques are new and will require thorough foods like bananas and raspberries, designed to reduce food security and food scrutiny before being made widely available. As such, this trend is a waste7 slower moving curve that is in its early stages.

salad and mayonnaise”4, 5. SIGNALS • Oregon State food scientist Yanyun Zhao has developed an • In an effort to develop food that lasts for long journeys, NASA antibacterial food coating made of chitosan and lysozyme for recently developed a bread pudding that stays fresh for a year⁸. delicate fruits and vegetables⁵. • Lund University students recently created “FoPo”, a freeze-dried food powder made of near-expired foods like bananas and IMPLICATIONS raspberries⁷. • As these new methods grow in popularity, the definition of “fresh” • German researchers recently developed a colour changing may shift from how old the food is to how fresh it tastes. material that detects toxins. One potential use case was identifying spoiled food through its packaging⁶. • In a food scare world, truly fresh food may become a luxury item. • Developments in High Pressure Processing may soon “allow the • While many of these technologies are for industrial food military to offer sandwiches stuffed with ingredients like tuna processing, consumer tools for HPP and food powders may enter the home, helping consumers reduce their own food waste. In

26 SCANNING

other words, these methods could be future versions of freezing 4. Blum, D. (2012, March 12). 5. Food That Lasts Forever. Time. Retrieved from or canning. http://content.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,2108051,00.html 5. Freedman, D. (2011, September 2). The Bright, Hi-Tech Future of Food • Food powders like FoPo could create some unique ingredients, Preservation. Discover Magazine. Retrieved November 12, 2015, from http:// applications and food preparation methods (e.g. how might we discovermagazine.com/2011/sep/17-impatient-futurist-hi-tech-future-food- cook with banana powder?) preservation • Dynamic expiry dates on packaging which respond to bacterial 6. Toor, A. (2013, May 4). Color-changing gloves detect airborne toxins with shades of blue. The Verge. Retrieved November 15, 2015, from http://www.theverge. contamination may become required through legislation. com/2013/5/4/4299528/fraunhofer-gloves-change-color-in-presence-of-toxins 7. Hutchings, E. (2015, August 7). From Two Weeks to Two Years: Powdered Food RELATED TRENDS Curbs Waste, Saves Lives. PSFK. Retrieved from http://www.psfk.com/2015/08/ powdered-food-waste-disaster-relief.html • Those who subscribe to the Zero Mile Diet, seen elsewhere in this report, may gain great benefits from new methods of 8. Preston, E. (2015, September 17). How NASA Is Solving the Space Food Problem. Eater. Retrieved November 17, 2015, from http://www.eater. preserving their home-grown food. com/2015/9/17/9338665/space-food-nasa-astronauts-mars • MyBiome looks at the importance of food at the nano level, 9. Eisen, L. (2015, October 29). Microbes: The Hidden Reason Behind the Obesity helping to feed the right bacteria and limit the harmful ones9, 10. Epidemic? The Nature of Things. CBC. Retrieved from http://www.cbc.ca/ natureofthings/it-takes-guts • Digital Gastronomy, seen elsewhere in this report, explores the 10. Laughlin, S., & Rees, T. (2014, July 14). MyBiome. Retrieved November 12, 2015, potential of 3D food printing, could use food powders as a base from https://www.lsnglobal.com/micro-trends/article/16127/mybiome material. 11. Handwerk, B., & Howard, B. C. (2015, September 23). See the “Doomsday” Seed • Disaster Dining is a weak signal trend that looks at preparing Vault Opened in Response to Syria Crisis. Retrieved November 15, 2015, from the food supply for catastrophic events. For example, the first http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2015/09/150923-svalbard-doomsday-arctic- seed-vault-syrian-crisis-pictures/ withdrawal of the infamous Svalbard Global Seed Vault was recently made11, restoring seeds to farmers in war-torn Syria.

REFERENCES 1. Chavich, C. (2015, May 5). How to solve the food waste problem. Retrieved from http://www.macleans.ca/society/life/how-to-solve-the-food-waste-problem/ 2. Walker, S. (2014, October 12). Why Canada may be heading into a food security crisis. The Toronto Star. Retrieved from http://www.thestar.com/news/ insight/2014/10/12/canada_may_be_heading_into_a_food_security_crisis.html 3. Mehler Paperny, A. (2015, June 1). Tainted lunch: Navigating gaps in Canada’s food safety system. Retrieved from http://globalnews.ca/news/2016254/tainted-lunch- Image above: Image by Jamie Chung from Time Magazine’s article “Food That Lasts navigating-gaps-in-canadas-food-safety-system/ Forever”3

27 TECHNOLOGY THE ZERO MILE DIET

In-home aeroponics and aquaponics systems are providing small scale INDIVIDUAL CHANGE BOTH INDIVIDUAL + INSTITUTIONAL urban agriculture solutions, allowing urban dwellers to sustainably grow a (SMALL SCALE) INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE CHANGE (LARGE SCALE) complete diet in their own kitchens

DESCRIPTION While kitchen gardens, patio tomatoes and other small scale urban farming methods are well-established1,2, technological developments are providing new methods of growing an independent, sustainable and complete diet in urban homes. Aeroponics systems, which grow plants in moist air rather than in soil or water, enables high-volume crop growth in reduced spaces³. Meanwhile, advances in aquaponics – a symbiotic system that combines aquaculture and hydroponics – are allowing people to grow their own vegetables and fish in their own home4,5. In a more unorthodox vein, mealworm hives and home algae gardens are allowing people to harvest their own alternative protein source6,7. Oftentimes, these systems are designed to resemble modern kitchen cabinets, fitting right into the aesthetic of compact urban kitchens⁸. Targeting young, eco-conscious urban dwellers, these systems are packed with smart-monitoring features to increase production⁸. Frame from promotional video for Grove Labs’ in-home aquaponics unit, which puts MATURITY plants and fish in a closed ecosystem. The system has advanced tech features while being packaged in a home-friendly form factor8, 11 Urban gardening is a well-established trend, however aeroponics, aquaponics, and bug farming are much more in their infancy, with many products at the conceptual or v1.0 stage. personal food computer”³. • Another product from former MIT students, Grove Labs is an SIGNALS in-home gardening system that uses advanced digital monitoring and is styled like a domestic kitchen cabinet8, 11. • The Nano Garden is a fashionable hydroponic kitchen garden concept that grows herbs and vegetables in a futuristic form • LIVIN Farms is a mealworm hive, providing urban dwellers with factor⁹. a sustainable and home-grown protein source⁶. • A fish tank and herb garden in one, The Water Garden is a small- • WaterLilly is a home algae farm that provides an energy and scale aquaponics system where the fish feed the plants and the sustainable protein source⁷. plants clean the water⁴. Vegua is a similar system10. • An early signal to this trend, Mathieu Lehanneur’s Local River • MIT CityFarm founder and 2015 National Geographic “Emerging project was a conceptual in-home aquaculture garden designed in Explorer” Caleb Harper is developing smart home aeroponics 2008⁵. systems that allow food to be “farmed from anywhere via a

28 SCANNING

IMPLICATIONS REFERENCES • As consumers increasingly grow their diet at home, demand 1. Associated Press. (2008, May 20). As food prices rise, more people grow their own. Retrieved November 23, 2015, from http://www.nbcnews.com/id/24729307/ns/ for produce in local farmer’s markets and grocery stores may business-retail/t/food-prices-rise-more-people-grow-their-own/ decrease. Alternatively, these businesses may refocus their efforts 2. Herriot, C. (2010). The Zero Mile Diet: A Year-Round Guide to Growing Organic to foods that cannot easily be grown at home. Food. Harbour. • Many of these systems require a high amount of electricity, which 3. National Geographic Live. (2015). Revolutionizing the Way We Grow Food. could hinder adoption or increase the need for affordable energy Retrieved from http://video.nationalgeographic.com/video/ng-live/151027- harper-technology-food-lecture-nglive alternatives. 4. Back to the Roots. (2015). Water Garden. Retrieved November 12, 2015, from • In times of bountiful harvest, consumers may need different http://backtotheroots.com/products/watergarden methods to store their crops for the long term (see Forever Fresh 5. Dezeen. (2008, April 27). Local River by Mathieu Lehanneur. Retrieved November trend). 21, 2015, from http://www.dezeen.com/2008/04/07/local-river-by-mathieu- lehanneur/ • With an increasing awareness of where their food comes from, 6. Pena, A. (2015, November 12). From Hive to the Table: Harvest and Cook consumers growing their own food may have more scrutiny Mealworms. Retrieved November 12, 2015 from http://www.psfk.com/2015/11/ in their store-bought food. For example, they may be more livin-farms-desk-hive-super-food-how-to-cook-mealworms.html concerned about animal well-being, or the farming methods used 7. Pincus, R. (2014, February 11). Micro-Algae Factories Could Be A Food And Energy on their vegetables. Source For The Home. Retrieved from http://www.psfk.com/2014/02/household- algae-factories.html RELATED TRENDS 8. Qiu, L. (2014, March 31). MIT Grads Create A Personal Farm For Your Kitchen. Retrieved November 12, 2015 from http://www.psfk.com/2014/03/mit-grads- • Discussed elsewhere on this report, Forever Fresh would provide create-a-personal-farm-for-your-kitchen.html alternative methods of storing home-grown harvests for the long 9. Mok, K. (2013, February 28). Sleek hydroponic unit lets you grow a garden in term. your kitchen. Retrieved November 21, 2015, from http://www.treehugger.com/ sustainable-product-design/kitchen-nano-garden-hydroponic-hyundai.html • Vertical Farming: Numerous building concepts are exploring how to engage in large-scale farming in compact urban 10. Brick, J. (2015, February 13). Tabletop Aquaponic Farm is Functional Fish Bowl. 12 Retrieved from http://www.psfk.com/2015/02/vegua-aquaponic-farm-fish-bowl- environments . food.html • Taking the Ick out of Crickets: While alternative proteins such 11. Grove Ecosystem - Grow Fresh Food In Your Home. (2015). Retrieved November as mealworms, crickets, and algae have been celebrated as a 21, 2015, from https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/grove-ecosystem/grove- sustainable option, consumers are reluctant to add them to their ecosystem-grow-fresh-food-in-your-home diet. Methods of processing “hide” these protein alternatives in 12. Marks, P. (2014, January 18). Vertical farms sprouting all over the world | New other foods, gradually alleviating consumers’ “ick-factor”13. Scientist. New Scientist. Retrieved from https://www.newscientist.com/article/ mg22129524-100-vertical-farms-sprouting-all-over-the-world/ • As a counter trend, Monoconomies favours regional specialization of global food production over the self-sustenance 13. Washington, N. (2015, May 20). Bug Off: Why Insect Eating Is More Gimmick Than Reality. Retrieved from http://theplate.nationalgeographic.com/2015/05/20/ model presented here (see Oktay Kesebi’s report). bug-off-why-insect-eating-is-more-gimmick-than-reality/

29 TECHNOLOGY DIGITAL GASTRONOMY

From digital assistants to 3D printing to cognitive cooking, computers are INDIVIDUAL CHANGE BOTH INDIVIDUAL + INSTITUTIONAL having a greater influence over what and how we eat (SMALL SCALE) INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE CHANGE (LARGE SCALE)

DESCRIPTION Computers are now getting a seat at the dinner table, reinventing how food is made, what it contains, and even how we eat it. 3D printed food has been envisioned by designers for several years, and is now becoming a reality1, 2, 3. Luxury dining experiences are now serving 3D printed “fabricated food”4, 5, and the prestigious Culinary Institute of America is exploring 3D printing technology⁶. Moving beyond 3D printed food, cognitive cooking engine Chef Watson is developing new recipes based on previously unimagined ingredient combinations⁷. Immersive and virtual experiences are acting as chef assistants⁸ and are even simulating the act of dining9, 10. These new technologies point to an emerging field of “digital gastronomy”, where computers play a role throughout the dining experience11.

MATURITY There are some tools currently available to consumers, such as cognitive cooking and 3D printed dining. However, this is still a Image above: Printing a chocolate dessert from the world’s first 3D printed meal at a relatively new field that is still very much in its infancy. For example, pop-up restaurant in London by chef Mateo Blanch4. it will take some time for Virtual Reality dining and immersive chef assistants to become available to the general public. • A collaboration between IBM and Bon Appetit, Chef Watson’s cognitive cooking engine scans recipe archives and analyses SIGNALS molecular compounds to develop unique and unconventional • MIT Media Lab students created the Cornucopia 3D food printer, recipes ⁷. an early signal in the rise in 3D printed food¹. • Project Nourished is a virtual dining experience that allows users to “eat anything [they] want without the regret”. The experience is • The Culinary Institute of America (CIA) is currently exploring created by blending virtual reality technology, aromatic diffusers, “the future of three-dimensional (3D) printed food and artisan bone conduction, and motion sensors to simulate the entire culinary methods”⁶. eating experience9, 10. • This past May, Chef Mateo Blanch served the first five course 3D • “A Table for Living” uses motion sensors, projectors and cameras printed meal at a pop-up restaurant in London⁴. to create an immersive chef assistant. It identifies ingredients and suggests recipe options, walks users through food preparation, • Dovetailed’s 3D printer makes “fruit”– made from fruit juice and and provides ingredient information⁸. alginic acid – on demand³.

30 SCANNING

IMPLICATIONS 4. Huen, E. (2015, July 31). 3D Food Printing: Is It Ready for Luxury Dining? Retrieved November 21, 2015, from http://www.forbes.com/sites/ • Digital Gastronomy tools such as cognitive cooking engines and eustaciahuen/2015/07/31/3d-food-printing-is-it-ready-for-luxury-dining/ immersive cooking assistants could be as normal as the mixer and 5. Future in Focus. (2015). Fabricated Food: In the Lab, Factory, at Home. Retrieved blender in the kitchen. November 12, 2015, from http://futureinfocus.com/briefs/fabricated-food-in-the- lab-factory-at-home/ • With cognitive cooking engines finding new flavour combinations, and 3D printing requiring soft and pliable media, 6. Culinary Institute of America. (2015, March 10). 3D Food Printing Comes to the new ingredient combinations and textures could enter our CIA. Retrieved November 21, 2015, from http://www.ciachef.edu/fh-3dprinting/ culinary lexicon. 7. Chef Watson with Bon Appétit. (2015). Retrieved November 12, 2015, from https:// www.ibmchefwatson.com • Virtual dining could allow us to indulge in a special treat without guilt, or allow us to share an intimate dining experience with a 8. IKEA, IDEO, TU Eindhoven, & Lund University. (2015). Concept Kitchen 2025. Retrieved November 12, 2015, from http://www.conceptkitchen2025.com/ loved one far away. 9. Andreotti, A. (2015, January 10). Virtual Reality Dining Experience. Retrieved • 3D printed food could create new and novel experiences with November 12, 2015, from https://www.nextnature.net/2015/01/virtual-reality- respect to plating and ingredients, and may perhaps bring new dining-experience/ rituals around special meals. For example, children could 3D 10. An, J. (2015). Project Nourished: A Gastronomical Virtual Reality Experience. print special cookies for Santa as part of the Christmas Eve ritual. Retrieved November 21, 2015, from http://www.projectnourished.com/ • However, in order to become a regular fixture in the home, 11. Van Mensvoort, K. (2010, January 23). Digital Gastronomy. Retrieved November 3D printed food will have to move beyond the novel into the 12, 2015, from https://www.nextnature.net/2010/01/digital-gastronomy practical. For example, printing will have to be faster and capable of printing a broader range of foods, to meet our demands for speed and meal variety.

RELATED TRENDS • Food powders discussed in the Forever Fresh trend could be used as interesting and sustainable ingredients for 3D food printers.

REFERENCES 1. Zoran, A. and Coelho, M. (2010) “Cornucopia: The Concept of Digital Gastronomy.” in Leonardo: Journal of the International Society for the Arts, Sciences and Technology. Volume 44, Number 5, October 2011, pp. 425-431. 2. Charlebois, S. (2015, June 17). Is 3-D printing the future of global food? Retrieved November 21, 2015, from http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/ rob-commentary/is-3-d-printing-the-future-of-global-food/article24981139/ Image above: “A Table for Living” from The Concept Kitchen 2025 project uses motion 3. Boyd, H. (2014, May 28). 3D Printer Will Print Futuristic Fruit On Demand. sensors, projectors and cameras to create an immersive chef assistant8. Retrieved from http://www.psfk.com/2014/05/3d-printed-fruit.html

31 TECHNOLOGY RISE OF THE MACHINE

INDIVIDUAL CHANGE BOTH INDIVIDUAL + INSTITUTIONAL Increased use of robots, apps and server-less dining (SMALL SCALE) INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE CHANGE (LARGE SCALE)

DESCRIPTION Increased labour costs and lack of standardization in food preparation and service has led to the increase in automation in restaurants. Robots are being introduced that can prepare anything from lobster bisque to hamburgers. The technology seems to have come a long way with refinements being incorporated daily. The days of buying stale food from vending machines are gone. San Francisco’s first server- less restaurant features many healthy items that are prepared behind the scenes. As such, the efficiency of solitude has come to be seen as the ultimate luxury good.

MATURITY This trend seems to be on the rise as new technological advances are introduced and the machines evolve to include greater nuanced functionality at a lesser price. Rate of adoption will vary depending on geographic location and demographics. Millennials are far more Image above: photo of first server less restaurant Eatsa in San Francisco likely to embrace guest-facing technologies. Photo credit: Eatsa: Is a Restaurant Without Waiters the Future of Food? - The Atlantic http://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2015/09/the-restaurant-with-invisible- waiters/403297/ SIGNALS • New San Francisco Franchise that is 100% server less during the • Japan introduces shokkenki. where customers can choose the age of Amazon and Uber. The efficiency of solitude has come to meal they want and purchase a ticket for it with minimal human be seen as the ultimate luxury good (Garber, 2015) interaction (Hu, 2013) • Moley Robotics reveals robot that can make 2000 meals (Shah, • Rise in use of guest facing technology from tablets to apps to help 2015) customers place an order or play a game while they wait for their order (Restaurant Business, 2014) • Robot Mixologist and bartender debuts at the Google Conference in San Francisco (Forbes, 2013) IMPLICATIONS • Proliferation of casual dining experiences in server less restaurants where the tables are giant touch screens that sync with • Creation of dining experiences that are focused on the enjoyment smartphone like devices (Fessenden, 2015) of the food that is prepared behind the scenes without having to deal with service issues. • Burgers of tomorrow could be made by robots — not employees in the face of higher labor costs (Hu, 2013)

32 SCANNING

• Decrease in the price of meals consumed outside of the home as REFERENCES the associated labour costs plummet. 1. Fessenden, M. Dining in the Future: Predictions for Restaurant Eating in 2040. Retrieved November 23, 2015, from http://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart- • Eating at any time, anywhere that allows for people to access news/dine-future-predictions-restaurant-eating-2040-180956637/?no-ist whatever they want whenever they want it. 2. Forbes, P. (2013, May 15). Behold the Latest in Robot Mixologists, the Makr Shakr. • Access to greater food variety due to decreased costs and the Retrieved November 23, 2015, from http://www.eater.com/2013/5/15/6434077/ ability to offer healthier options that might have a higher cost. behold-the-latest-in-robot-mixologists-the-makr-shakr 3. Garber, M. (2015, September 02). Server-less Restaurants Might Be the Future • Ability to change menus that reflect the seasons as many of the of Dining. Retrieved November 23, 2015, from http://www.theatlantic.com/ menus are featured on apps and electronic devices entertainment/archive/2015/09/the-restaurant-with-invisible-waiters/403297/ • Creation of opportunities where customers can enjoy greater 4. Hu, E. (2013, August 29). The Fast-Food Restaurants That Require Few Human moments of solitude, which has become a luxury in our fast Workers. Retrieved November 23, 2015, from http://www.npr.org/sections/ alltechconsidered/2013/08/28/216541023/the-fast-food-restaurants-that-require- paced world. few-human-workers 5. Shah, K. (2015, April 14). This Robot Will Woo You With Crab Bisque and RELATED TRENDS 1,999 Other Recipes. Retrieved November 22, 2015, from http://www.eater. • Rise in human less service interactions that allow for greater com/2015/4/14/8416487/this-robot-will-woo-you-with-crab-bisque-and-1999- other-recipes accessibility to services at lower prices from Uber to Amazon 6. 7 Trends In Restaurants For 2015. (2015, February 02). Retrieved November 22, • New technology interfaces that allow customers to pre pay for 2015, from http://restaurantengine.com/seven-trends-restaurants/ their meal and be out of the door • Starbucks introduces its new app that allows customers to place an order and pay before they arrive at the actual location • Uber enters the food delivery market and allows customers to place orders via their Uber account • Proliferation of grocery shopping apps where customers can place orders for their favourite brand of ice cream and have that delivered without leaving home • Successful launch of laundry and dry cleaning apps such as Simply Laundry and Exclusive Dry cleaners that allow customers to send in their clothing items with no human interaction. • A counter trend to this is the emergence of concepts such as communal dining and dinner with strangers where the focus is really on the interaction with other diners.

33 TECHNOLOGY GENETICALLY MODIFIED MEAT

To meet the increasing demand for meat for human consumption and INDIVIDUAL CHANGE BOTH INDIVIDUAL + INSTITUTIONAL recognizing dwindling natural resources (World Health Organization), (SMALL SCALE) INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE CHANGE (LARGE SCALE) livestock producers are turning to biotechnology to increase productivity.

DESCRIPTION The Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations expects global demand for meat and milk to double by 2050. Genetically modified (GM) meat has been on the radar because there is some perceived advantage either to the producer or consumer that the products will have a lower price, greater benefit in terms of durability, nutritional value and the environment.

MATURITY There have been many gene-editing innovations involving animals and fish over the past 25 years. Researchers have developed dozens of GM animals over the years, from pigs full of healthy omega-3 fatty acids to chickens resistant to bird flu, to GM salmon.

SIGNALS Image above: CRISPR: A powerful gene-editing technology is the biggest game Policy changer to hit biology. Retrieved on February 14, 2016 from http://gizmodo.com/ • A type of genetically engineered Atlantic salmon has recently everything-you-need-to-know-about-crispr-the-new-tool-1702114381 been approved to be farmed for human consumption by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration regulators (Stiers, 2103; specific genes without changing other parts of an animal’s Steenhuysen & Polansek, 2015). genome (Carlson et al, 2012; Ridley, 2013; Ledford, 2015). • Countries with legislation in place focus primarily on assessment • Biotechnology firm Recombinetics filed a dozen utility patents of risks for consumer health (WHO). supporting the use of gene editing technologies for livestock Technology improvement (Frahenkrug, 2013). • GM goats have been developed that produce milk containing • Additives commonly found in sausage and ham are often antibacterial proteins that can prevent diarrhea (Murray, J. in produced using methods involving genetically modified Coussins, 2015). microorganisms (GMO Compass). • Powerful new genome-editing tools such a newly published technique called CRISPR that allows researchers to quickly IMPLICATIONS change the DNA of nearly any organism — including humans The FDA’s decision on GM salmon may set a precedent that could mean researchers can make very precise changes to DNA, altering make approval for other genetically modified animal species easier.

34 SCANNING

Genetic modification is one tool that has great potential to advance sausage.html our food system when used thoughtfully and with oversight. But so 4. Hilbeck, A.,, et al. (2015). No scientific consensus on GMO safety. Environmental far not one transgenic animal - an animal with genes transferred Sciences Europe 27 (4) Retrieved on February 16, 2016 from http://download. from another species - has made it to market. There is strong springer.com/static/pdf/92/art%253A10. resistance from environmental groups, sections of the public are 5. Ledford, H (2015) CRISPR, the disruptor. Retrieved on February 14, 2016 from wary, and this is a lack of regulatory consensus. But even if some http://www.nature.com/news/crispr-the-disruptor-1.17673#/b1 gene-edited animal products do eventually get approved, will the 6. Macdonald, R. ( 2013). Facts about beef. Retrieved On February 14, 2016 from public want to eat them? We can anticipate a shift in mindset before http://factsaboutbeef.com/tag/genetically-modified-food./ there could be a high level of consumer adoption of GMO meats. 7. Frahenkrug, S. ( 2013 ) Recombinetics Gene-Editing Technology Revolutionizes Sophisticated consumers will need valid and reliable scientific Animal Agriculture . Retrieved from http://recombinetics.com/node/59 evidence about the compatibility of the products on the human 8. Ridley, M. ( 2013). Editing our genes, one letter at a time, Wall Street Journal. Retrieved http://www.wsj.com/articles/ ecosystem. SB10001424127887323482504578227661405130902articleBody16u 9. Steenhuysen, J & Polansek, T. (2015). U.S. clears genetically modified salmon for human consumption. Reuters. Retrieved on February 14, 2016 from http://www. RELATED TRENDS reuters.com/article/us-aquabounty-technologies-fda-idUSKCN0T826T20151120. • There are also societal reservations and ethical concerns about 10. Stiers, J. A. (2013). Genetically Modified Salmon Student Scholarship. Paper 311. GM livestock. (GMO compass) Retrieved on February 16, 2016 from http://scholarship.shu.edu/cgi/viewcontent. cgi?article=1311&context=student_scholarship. • A hostile landscape has made investors cautious and lack of 11. World Health Organization (WHO). Food safety. Retrieved on February 14, government funding is stifling research. (Coussins, 2015) 2016 from http://www.who.int/foodsafety/areas_work/food-technology/faq- genetically-modified-food/en/ • There is no consensus on the safety of GMO products (Hilbeck, 2015) • The main issues of concern for human health are the potential to provoke allergic reaction and gene transfer (WHO).

REFERENCES 1. Carlson, D., Tan, S, Lillico, SG, Stverakova, D, Proudfoot, C, Christian, M, Voytas, DF, Long, CR, Whitelaw, CBA & Fahrenkrug, SC (2012) Efficient TALEN- mediated gene knockout in livestock. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America - PNAS, 109 (43) pp. 17382-7., 10.1073/ pnas.1211446109. 2. Cossins, D. (2015) Retrieved on February 14, 2016 from http://www.bbc.com/ future/story/20150309-will-we-ever-eat-gm-meat Image above: Recombinetics is tweaking a few letters in the genomes of dairy cattle to render them hornless, while maintaining cherished milk-production qualities. 3. GMO Compass. Retrieved on February 14, 2016 from http://www.gmo-compass. org/eng/grocery_shopping/processed_foods/32.genetic_engineering_meats_ Retrieved from http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20150309-will-we-ever-eat-gm-meat

35 TECHNOLOGY CULTURED FOOD Worldwide demand for meat is growing fast but current livestock farming INDIVIDUAL CHANGE BOTH INDIVIDUAL + INSTITUTIONAL methods are unsustainable. Although still in development, cultured beef (SMALL SCALE) INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE CHANGE (LARGE SCALE) has the potential to be a significantly more sustainable route to beef production than conventional farming.

DESCRIPTION Modern biotechnology methods for culturing food will revolutionize the way foods are created. Recent discoveries in gene science are making it possible to manipulate the components in natural foods. In combination with biofermentation, desirable natural compounds can now be produced in large amounts at a low cost and with little environmental impact. Moreover cows are a relatively inefficient way to convert grain or grass to meat and release a lot of greenhouse gas in the process. (Shetty, 2013).

MATURITY Humans have been culturing foods for millennia. Beer and wine brewing using yeast cultures began about 8,000 years ago and cultured foods then expanded to cheese, yogurt, soy sauce, sauerkraut, breads, and many more. However, cultured meat is relatively new and still in development. Image above: Human cheese made from microbes from the nose. Retrieved on February 14, 2016 from https://dublin.sciencegallery.com/ SIGNALS growyourown/selfmade Economics a Petri dish. Food tasters declaring it tasted “close to meat” It was • A biotechnology firm, Ginkgo Bioworks has already licensed eight grown in-vitro from cattle stem cells at a cost of $332,000 now organisms for the production of cultured food products (Ginkgo costs $12(Kelland, 2013). Bioworks, 2015). Art Science • GROW YOUR OWN, an exhibition created by Science Gallery at • Synthetic biology cheese harvest microbes from human bodies Trinity College Dublin addresses the applications and uncertain to make artisanal cheese to study the intersection of human and implications of synthetic biology. It featured eleven cheeses in microbial cultures (Agapakis & Tolaas, 2013). total, made from bacterial cultures harvested from the skin of • Synthetic biology can use microbes to make a new sugar humans. (De Zeen Magazine 2013; Agapakis & Tolaas, 2013) substitute or the scent of a rose (International Science Times, Environment 2013). • “Scarcity issues are expected to plague world food and agriculture • The world’s first laboratory-grown beef burger was created out of over the next few decades: competition for land and water, high

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energy prices and climate change all mean that the world has to 6. Kellend, K ( 2013). First taste of test-tube burger declared ‘close to meat produce more with less.” (Consensus Economic, 2009) 7. Reuters. Retrieved on February 14, 2016 from http://www.reuters.com/article/us- science-meat-in-vitro-idUSBRE9740PL20130806 IMPLICATIONS 8. Shetty,R. ( 2103) Ginkgo BioWorks, Inc. Retrieved on February 14, 2016 from http://ginkgobioworks.com/files/CulturedIngredients_PF2013.pdf While we can expect that regulatory systems, economic structures, and cultural practices will shape the life of an engineered organism 9. Yun-Hwa, P. and Ofori, J.(2007) Innovations in food technology for health. Asia Pacific Journal of Clinical Nuturition;16 (Suppl 1):65-73. in the future, one of the greatest challenges will be a societal one: as our bodies are infiltrated by designed life to meet our needs and animals are designed for human desires, how does a society come to terms with a future where “we are what we eat”, or “we eat what we are”?

Overall the signals indicate that we can expect commercialization of cultured meat and as long as consumers are prepared to buy it, it will be on our tables in the near future.

REFERENCES 1. Agapakis, C & Tolaas, S. (2013). Selfmade Installation. Retrieved on February 14, 2016 https://dublin.sciencegallery.com/growyourown/selfmade 2. Consensus Economics (2009) Future food landscape. Retrieved on February 14, 2016 http://www.consensuseconomics.com/News_and_Articles/Future_Food_ Supply_Issues420.htm 3. Dezeen Magazine (2013). Olafurs’s Eliasson’s tears used to make cheese. Retrieved on February 14, 2016 from http://www.dezeen.com/2013/11/20/olafur-eliasson- tears-used-to-make-human-cheese/ 4. International Science Times.( 2013).Bacteria cheese: Scientists make dairy with cultures from human armpits, feet, belly buttons, ears, and noses. Retrieved on February 14, 2016 from http://www.isciencetimes.com/articles/6376/20131122/ bacteria-cheese-human-skin-arm-pits-feet-belly-button-tears-nose-michael- pollan.htm 5. Jacobs, S. ( 2015) . Are microbes about to remake manufacturing? This synthetic biologist thinks so. Grist. Retrieved on February 14, 2016 from http://grist.org/ Image above: First taste of test-tube burger declared ‘close to meat’. people/are-microbes-about-to-remake-manufacturing-this-synthetic-biologist- Retrieved on February 16, 2016 from http://www.reuters.com/news/picture/first-taste-of-test- thinks-so/ tube-burger-declared?articleId=USBRE9740PL20130806#K2BkjhicOtvmZvWO.99

37 TECHNOLOGY FUTURE OF FOOD SHOPPING The on-demand economy is creating an expectation of convenience for INDIVIDUAL CHANGE BOTH INDIVIDUAL + INSTITUTIONAL getting food on the table in an efficient, convenient and highly humanized (SMALL SCALE) INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE way using new innovations in technology that will only scale up in the next CHANGE (LARGE SCALE) 5-10 years.

DESCRIPTION Technology is transforming the way we shop and get our food into the kitchen. (Irish Times, 2015). While in-store shopping accounts for 92 percent of retail volume, consumers are expecting the same levels of personalization and customization that they get when they shop online; 58 percent of consumers want to get in-store product information and 19 percent of consumers are already browsing their mobile devices while in-store (IBM Research).

MATURITY Throughout history, people shopped for their food from farmers or retailers through in-store shopping or through a delivery service. These two methods, along with on-line food shopping, still remain the primary methods but new interactive technology will allow for augmented shopping experiences.

SIGNALS Image above: The increasingly crowded delivery market. From https://www. rudebaguette.com/2015/10/20/rudevc-big-data-meets-haute-cuisine • Augmented reality is a technology that superimposes computer- generated images on a user’s view of the real world. It is constantly refined to offer consumers a more seductive shopping personalized information that online shoppers receive, retailers experience, and to help maximize profits for big retailers willing can harness big data in order to cater to each individual on a to invest in emerging realities (Irish Times, 2015). more personal level and transform marketing into a convenient and welcomed service for consumers. (IBM) • IBM Research reports the development of a new mobile application that will help customers and retailers transform the • “A concept shop at Milan Expo explores how technology could shopping experience transform the way we shop for food. Digital mirrors give shoppers information about the provenance of the product, • IBM Research is looking at bringing all the benefits of online the processes used in making it and its ingredients. At a glance, shopping into traditional stores through new augmented reality shoppers can see products’ carbon footprints, nutritional value mobile shopping application that will give in-store shoppers and recipes.” (Irish Times, 2015) instant product details and promotions through their mobile devices (IBM Research). • As customers browse and purchase items inside the warehouse- inspired space, information about them is processed by a • By providing in-store shoppers with the same kind of computer and reinterpreted as marketing data by retailers.

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(Dezeen Magazine, 2015) 3. IBM. Augmented reality makes shopping more personal: New mobile application from IBM Research helps both consumers and retailers. Retrieved from http:// • The number of food delivery startups has ballooned in the www.research.ibm.com/articles/augmented-reality.shtml. past three years. Approximately 25 U.S.-based companies are 4. Irish Times. (2015). The future of food shopping: holograms and cloud control? delivering either prepared meals or ingredients for home cooking Retrieved from http://www.irishtimes.com/news/consumer/the-future-of- (Winfrey, 2015). food-shopping-holograms-and-cloud-control-1.2287347 http://www.irishtimes. com/news/consumer/the-future-of-food-shopping-holograms-and-cloud- • According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture there will control-1.2287347 be growth in the home-delivery and mail order food of 5. Powell, C. (2015). How a wave of delivery startups are remaking grocery shopping. approximately $25 billion per year of consumer spending. Canadian Grocer. Retrieved from http://www.canadianbusiness.com/innovation/ (Winfrey, 2015). how-a-wave-of-delivery-startups-are-remaking-grocery-shopping/ • Canada’s online grocery industry is expected to reach $800 6. Winfrey, G. (2015). Three startups feeding the food delivery bubble. Vision 2020. Inc. Retrieved from http://www.inc.com/graham-winfrey/3-food-delivery- million by 2020. While that is a fraction of countries such as the startups-competing-for-share-of-stomach.html. U.K. (US$15 billion in 2015), France (US$9 billion) and global 7. Watson, C. (2015). Carlo Ratti wants to design the future. WIRED UK. Retrieved leader China (US$41), it is trending upwards. (Chris Powell, 2015). from http://www.wired.co.uk/news/archive/2015-09/22/interview-with-carlo- ratti-wired2015-speaker IMPLICATIONS The current investment growth in augmented technologies for enhanced shopping and home delivery services is an indication that consumers are looking for these services. As consumers with disposable incomes increase there is a growing trend to using innovations in technology to make food selections in a more interactive and time efficient manner while not sacrificing the quality of the food. (Bivens, 2015) It also will allow food retailers to get to know their customers purchasing preferences through new the interactive digital technologies.

REFERENCES 1. Bivens, M. (2015). Imaging the future of food. Rude Baquette. Retrieved from https://www.rudebaguette.com/2015/10/20/rudevc-big-data-meets-haute-cuisine/ 2. Dezeen Magazine (2015) Carlo Ratti designs digital supermarket at Milan Expo 2015. Retrieved from http://www.dezeen.com/2015/05/01/carlo-ratti-digital- Image above: Designer Carlo Ratti’s concept shop at Milan Expo showing holograms. supermarket-milan-expo-2015-mit-coop-italia/ From http://www.irishtimes.com/news/consumer/the-future-of-food-shopping-holo- grams-and-cloud-control-1.2287347.

39 ECONOMICS LOW INCOME? LOW HEALTH

Changing awareness of the relationship between low income and food INDIVIDUAL CHANGE BOTH INDIVIDUAL + INSTITUTIONAL insecurity is resulting in push toward more governmental policies and (SMALL SCALE) INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE CHANGE (LARGE SCALE) programs

DESCRIPTION Increased awareness of the relationship between income and food security is resulting in governmental changes in North America in the form of national and international policies. New and upcoming changes include subsidiaries for low-income families, the establishment of a living wage rather than a minimum wage, increasing social assistance rates, and offering healthy food supplement in order to create a stronger social safety net.¹

MATURITY The relationship between low income and food insecurity has been an ongoing problem, but it has just recently been publicized and acted on by North American governments. A lot more still needs to be done in order to alleviate this problem.

SIGNALS • There has been a notable increased need for campus food banks Image above: statistics on food insecurity in Canada⁴ across the country.² • Doctors prescribing vegetables: Doctors provide families in the Government of Canada subsidy program launched on April 1, FVRx program with a “prescription” to eat fruits and vegetables. 2011 to bring healthy food to isolated Northern communities. The families also are given nutritional education, recipes and, NNC works with stores across the North and food suppliers in most important of all, so-called Health Bucks that are redeemable southern Canada to ensure Northerners have better access to for produce at a local farmers’ market — at twice the amount that perishable nutritious food.”⁴ the families could purchase with food stamps alone. • There are 600,000 more Canadians affected by food insecurity • Wholesome Wave Healthy Food Commerce Investments (HFCI) now than in 2007-2008. 62.2 per cent of food insecure homes “team improves the supply chain for local food by working with are working households, 70 per cent of households on social regional food hubs to structure investments and enter large assistance are food insecure, with 29 per cent experiencing severe wholesale markets. The team collaborates with and advises the deprivation 45 per cent of households in Nunavut reported some businesses, government entities, investors, and customers that are level of food insecurity⁴. building a vibrant, just and sustainable food system³.”

• Subsidy for groceries: “Nutrition North Canada (NNC) is a

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3. Healthy Food Commerce Investments. (n.d.). Retrieved November 25, 2015, from https://www.wholesomewave.org/our-initiatives/healthy-food-commerce- investments/ IMPLICATIONS 4. Kukasawdia, S. (2014, February 6). Millions of working Canadians struggle to • Economic and political assistance can provide low-income afford food: U of T report. Retrieved November 25, 2015, from http://news. individuals with the opportunity to improve their health by utoronto.ca/millions-working-canadians-struggle-afford-food-u-t-report continuing to implement policies and programs that encourage 5. How Nutrition North Canada works. (2014, November 18). Retrieved healthy food purchases November 25, 2015, from http://www.nutritionnorthcanada.gc.ca/ eng/1415538638170/1415538670874 • However, these policies and programs have not always proven effective in the areas that are most needed, such as Northern Canada.⁵ • Said policies and programs can also encourage a detrimental dependence thus causing low-income individuals to become trapped in a system of needing help and receiving help instead of changing on their end. • Policies and programs that aim to improve the economic situation of lower-income individuals, if implemented properly, have the ability to improve the economic distribution in certain regions. They also have the ability to worsen them, which could amount to more crime, homelessness, etc.

REFERENCES 1. Is Healthy Food Affordable for Everyone in Hamilton? (2013, September 1). Retrieved November 25, 2015, from http://www2.hamilton.ca/ NR/rdonlyres/7E552636-5E65-4E3C-8094-44CDCC66450F/0/ IsHealthyFoodAffordableHamilton.pdf 2. As Tuition Rises, Food Banks Appear At Canadian Universities. (2015, August 25). Retrieved November 25, 2015, from http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2015/08/25/ campus-food-bank-use-is-rising-along-with-tuition-costs-students- Image above: http://photos.nationalservice.gov/Servegov/As-Seen-onServegov/i- group_n_8038820.html mvRV6qv

41 ENVIRONMENT ECO CONSCIOUS DINING

A growing consciousness surrounding food sources and their impact on INDIVIDUAL CHANGE BOTH INDIVIDUAL + INSTITUTIONAL health and the environment (SMALL SCALE) INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE CHANGE (LARGE SCALE)

DESCRIPTION There has been a movement growing over the last number of years demanding a move away from industrial food production. Much has taken place and support has grown for the 100-mile diet, where consumers are encouraged to eat locally to decrease their carbon footprint, eat better and support their local farmers. In many countries around the world, there is greater support for food cooperatives and community supported agriculture. There is a greater global emphasis on the importance of healthy eating especially among baby boomers. In recent years, there has also been an increasing push to introduce healthier and local food choices to school lunches in developed countries.

MATURITY This trend is not in its early beginnings but is somewhere in the middle of the S curve. As the planet’s population continues to grow and as consumers become more educated about their option. This Image above: fresh produce at the local farmer’s market in California trend will continue to gain momentum. Photo credit: http://www.transitiontownsca.org/page/member-broadcasts

SIGNALS to nutrition (Technomic Blog, 2013). • Greater numbers of students in schools are eating locally sourced • Touted benefits of cooperative farming that reduces carbon food. It is a movement that is gaining momentum (Richmond footprint and benefits consumers and farmers alike (Priebe, 2011). 2015). • Boomers are demanding healthier food options in restaurants • Growing acceptance and popularity of trash to table movement and voting with their wallets (Dagliden, 2010). (repurposing of edible food items) (Carman, 2013). • Community Supported Agriculture (CSA) provides consumers IMPLICATIONS and farmers with alternatives to the industrial forms of faming. China has over 800 CSAs with 100,000 consumers and the trend • The local/organic movement will manifest differently in different is growing (Hitchman, 2015). regions of the world. • Sixty-four percent of consumers today—up from 57 percent in • There is tremendous acceptance of new ideas and technologies 2010—agree that it is important to eat healthy and pay attention introduced in this space

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• Consumers who are making eco conscious decisions when REFERENCES it comes to their food are also making other eco conscious 1. Carman, T. (2013, January 8). Fine dining’s trash-to-table movement. Retrieved purchasing decisions. There is a potential to offer new product November 22, 2015, from https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/food/ combinations. fine-dinings-trash-to-table-movement/2013/01/07/1da8af2e-55fa-11e2-bf3e- 76c0a789346f_story.html • It is a trend that is gaining momentum and linked to issues of 2. Dagliden, J. (2010, September 02). Boomers want healthier food in restaurants. food sovereignty and food security. Retrieved November 22, 2015, from https://www.lsnglobal.com/behaviours/ article/1467/boomers-want-healthier-food-in-restaurants#paywall-form • Eco conscious food decisions are linked to core set of values and have ardent supporters and fans. 3. Hitchman, J. (2015, June 01). Community supported Agriculture Thriving in China. Retrieved November 22, 2015, from http://www.agriculturesnetwork.org/ magazines/global/rural-urban-linkages/community-supported-agriculture-china RELATED TRENDS 4. Priebe, M. (2011, January 03). What is a Food Co-op and CSA. Retrieved November • Production of food in small batches with less processing and the 22, 2015, from http://www.ecolife.com/health-food/eating-local/food-coops-csa. use of simple ingredients. html 5. Richmond, E. (2015, October 21). More Students Are Eating Locally Sourced • Reuse of food items. Food. Retrieved November 22, 2015, from http://www.theatlantic.com/education/ archive/2015/10/farm-to-school-gains-momentum/411562/ • Increased popularity of concepts related to food sharing and the feeding of the hungry. 6. What’s “Healthy” at Restaurants? Consumers’ Definitions are Evolving ( 2013, January 5). T. Blog. Retrieved on November 23, 2015 from https://blogs.technomic. • Working with farmers to empower them to take control back com/whats-healthy-at-restaurants of their farming practices and taking that control away from industrial farms. • A counter trend is all about the mass production of food and the use of enhanced seeds and pesticides to increase yield.

43 ENVIRONMENT RETHINKING FOOD ‘WASTE’

A collective global consciousness is being raised to help consumers, INDIVIDUAL CHANGE BOTH INDIVIDUAL + INSTITUTIONAL producers and sellers change wasteful habits, which puts consumable food (SMALL SCALE) INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE CHANGE (LARGE SCALE) in landfills.

DESCRIPTION It is estimated that Canadian’s throw out $31 billion dollars’ worth of food, every year, due to misinformation around food expiration date labeling, over-buying and perceptions associated with food aesthetics. Policy changes, new innovations and awareness campaigns are attempting to shift consumer consciousness to keep good food, out of the bin.

MATURITY Food waste audits have been occurring officially since the 1990s. Emerging policies and technologies to provide awareness and solutions for consumers have been emerging within the last 2 years.

SIGNALS Policy Response: Image above: A shot from, “Just Eat it: A Food Waste Story” documentary. This • USDA National Food Waste Challenge to reduce food waste by dumpster, behind a President’s Choice outlet is completely filled with hummus. The 50% by 2030 underway (USDA, 2015). best before date was 3 1⁄2 weeks away (Baldwin, 2015). • A Calgary councillor is urging colleagues across Canada to push the federal government to offer tax incentives for food producers • Two Canadian documentary filmmakers, go 6 months eating only and suppliers who donate unsold edible items (Klingbeil, 2015) food discarded or food bound for the dumpster. They captured a total of $20,000 worth of food (Baldwin, 2015) Media: Technology Industry: • A Dutch grocery store has opened up a restaurant, InStock which serves lunch and dinner daily, made from food close to expiration • Smart Fridge Technology aims to reduce food waste by placing date (Peters, 2015). cameras in fridges that homeowners can access when at the grocery store (Lam, 2015). • NRP/PBS series, teams up with top chefs to share tips of how to capture wasted food: Juicer Pulp burgers, Sour Milk Pancakes • Concept Kitchen, a thought experiment partnership between (Top, 2015). IDEO and IKEA, creates ‘open pantry’. Using shelves equipped with inductive cooling technology to reduce the need for • A 10-minute segment of John Oliver was devoted to investigating refrigeration, it easily shows what food is in the home (Lam, the vast amount of food waste in America (Oliver, 2015). 2015).

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IMPLICATIONS 7. Mandyck, J. (2014, November 18).The low-hanging fruit for climate protection is rotting. Retrieved November 24, 2015, from http://www.greenbiz.com/article/ By better understanding food waste patterns, individual consumers low-hanging-fruit-climate-protection-rotting 13. Freegan.info. (2015). Retrieved will directly be able to participate in solutions to change unconscious November 24, 2015, from http://freegan.info behavior contributing to food waste. Through awareness of economic 8. Oliver, J. (Writer). (2015, July 30). Last Week Tonight with John Oliver [Television loss and environmental impact, supply chain and policy experts series episode]. In John Oliver. New York: HBO. could begin to make decisions that could better improve the system 9. Peters, A. (2015, November 5).This Restaurant Will Make You A Meal From Food of food waste recovery. Waste. Retrieved November 24, 2015. 10. Spinder, K. (2014, October 16). Afgeprijsd! – The first app in the world fighting food waste head on. Retrieved November 24, 2015 RELATED TRENDS 11. USDA | OCE | U.S. Food Waste Challenge. (n.d.). Retrieved November 24, 2015, Decomposing food waste accounts for a vast amount of methane from http://www.usda.gov/oce/foodwaste/faqs.htm released into the atmosphere, contributing directly to climate change (Manyck, 2014).

REFERENCES 1. Baldwin, G., & Rustemeyer, J. (Directors). (2015). Just Eat It: A Food Waste Story [Motion picture]. Canada. https://www.knowledge.ca/program/just-eat-it 2. Don’t Toss That Sour Milk! And Other Tips To Cut Kitchen Food Waste. (2015, September 23). Retrieved November 24, 2015, from http://www.npr.org/sections/ thesalt/2015/09/23/441460163/don-t-toss-that-sour-milk-10-tips-cut-food-w aste- in-your-kitchen 3. Food Waste Publications. (2014, December 10). Retrieved November 24, 2015, from http://vcm-international.com/new-repor t-annual-food-waste-in-canada-is- 31-billion/ 4. Huebert, S. (2015, November 12). Gap between consumers and producers promotes food waste. Retrieved November 24, 2015 5. Klingbeil, A. (2015, November 22). Councillor wants to diver t food waste from landfill with tax breaks. Retrieved November 24, 2015, from http://calgaryherald. com/news/local-news/councillor-wants-to-divert-food-waste-from-landfill-with- tax-breaks Image above: A shot from John Oliver’s, Last Week Tonight, Food Waste episode. These are ‘imperfect’ apples and lettuce heads which cannot be sold at the super- 6. Lam, J. (2015, November 23).Technology offers new solutions for the mounting food waste problem in Hong Kong. Retrieved November 24, 2015 market (Oliver, 2015).

45 ENVIRONMENT FIGHTING COLONY COLLAPSE

1 in 3 bites we chew are directly linked to honey bee pollination. With INDIVIDUAL CHANGE BOTH INDIVIDUAL + INSTITUTIONAL increasing evidence of colony collapse, scientists and innovators are using (SMALL SCALE) INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE CHANGE (LARGE SCALE) technology to ensure pollination remains part of our natural world.

DESCRIPTION Since 2006, a third of all US bee colonies have collapsed. The collapse has been attributed to pesticide use, habitat loss and homogenous garden and agricultural practices. Bees face an increasingly grim fate going into winter 2015. A hive parasite which causes deformed wings has been identified in colonies worldwide. The spreading of the Varroa Mite parasite has been linked to the worldwide human trade of bees for crop pollination. Policy, technology, science and awareness aim to combat this pressing issue.

MATURITY Colony collapse was first reported in 2006. Science and technology innovation research has been in development since then.

SIGNALS Image above: Harvard University’s nanorobotic innovation, Robobees. This could Policy: provide a potential solution for autonomous pollination if colony collapse does • Ontario was the first government in North America to ban the occur (Robobees, 2015). use of pesticides which contain neonicotinoid, or neonic. These pesticides have been scientifically proven in the Worldwide reaching, but autonomous pollinating of field crops remains a Integrated Assessment to confuse bee’s sense of smell and main goal (RoboBees, 2015). direction (Suzuki, 2014). Awareness: Science and Technology: • NPR Thanksgiving broadcast, looks at what would be off the • Researchers have identified a bacterium which can be used to Thanksgiving table, if bee colonies were to collapse completely nourish bee larva in the hive as they grow. This in turn increases (Aubrey, 2015). their pollination capacity as they age (Kaplan, 2015). • London artist Louis Masai Michel, raises awareness of colony • Biology Professors at York and UBC are heading up a four-year collapse with urban graffiti (Chaisson, 2015). long project which aims to genetically modify bees to be healthier and more resistant to Canadian winter weather (Chan, 2015). • Whole Foods and Xerces, aimed to bring awareness to this potentially devastating situation in stores. Workers temporarily • Harvard University is part of research team working to develop, removed all produce that comes from plants dependent on RoboBees. The practical applications for this project are wide pollinators (Breyer, 2013).

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IMPLICATIONS 7. Robobees. (2015). Retrieved November 24, 2015, from http://robobees.seas. harvard.edu The table of the future would look very different if honey bee 8. Sanders, R. (2016). Worldwide bee epidemic linked to human cause: colonies continued to face threats to their existence. It is in the Colony trafficking. Retrieved February 12, 2016, from http://news.berkeley. benefit of policy experts and innovators to do all they can to help edu/2016/02/10/worldwide-bee-epidemic-linked-to-human-cause-colony- control this threat. Science and technology are innovating in the face trafficking/ of this issue, however, the rate of collapse may not give adequate 9. Suzuki, D. (2014, November 25). Ontario takes tough, timely action to reduce time to safely test solutions. harm from neonicotinoid pesticides. Retrieved November 24, 2015. 10. The Future Of Nanotechnology And Computers So Small You Can Swallow Them. (2015, November 23). Retrieved November 24, 2015. RELATED TRENDS Nanorobotics allows for a computer aided exploration of our world, at extremely small scale (The Future, 2015). Humans have been genetically modifying foods to make our crops more robust for over 30 years (Entine, 2014).

REFERENCES 1. Adele, A. (Writer). (2015, November 24). Thanksgiving Buzz: Pesticides Linked to Diminished Bee Health [Radio series episode]. In FOOD. NRP 2. Breyer, M. (2013, June 17).What a grocery store without bees looks like. Retrieved November 18, 2015, from http://www.mnn.com/food/healthy-eating/stories/what- a-grocery-store-without-bees-looks-like 3. Chan, E. (2015, November 10). Scientists hope to develop made-for-Canada honeybees. Retrieved November 18, 2015, from http://www.ctvnews.ca/sci-tech/ scientists-hope-to-develop-made-for-canada-honeybees-1.2651022 4. Chaisson, C. (2015, March 30). A London street artist is spray-painting city walls to #SaveTheBees. Retrieved November 18, 2015, from http://www.onearth.org/ earthwire/save-the-bees-street-art 5. Entine, J. (2014, September 17).The Debate About GMO Safety Is Over, Thanks To A New Trillion-Meal Study. Retrieved November 24, 2015. Image above: Photo taken by Ferdinand Feys. London artist Louis Masai Michel 6. Kaplan, K. (2015, May 7). Newly named bacteria help honey bee larvae thrive. Retrieved November 18, 2015, from http://phys.org/news/2015-05-newly-bacteria- spreads awareness with his graffiti campaign in East London. He works across Europe honey-bee-larvae.html to spread awareness of colony collapse (Chaisson, 2015).

47 ENVIRONMENT FISHING FOR SOLUTIONS The adjustment in fishing priorities from revenue to environment INDIVIDUAL CHANGE BOTH INDIVIDUAL + INSTITUTIONAL (SMALL SCALE) INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE CHANGE (LARGE SCALE)

DESCRIPTION The fish crisis has driven has started to create a movement away from the original capitalist perspective and more towards an environmental perspective. High-tech harvesting and wasteful management have brought world fish stocks to dangerous lows. Global fisheries have been using new fishing technology with vastly increased killing power, a shadowy networks of huge international companies making huge profits from the trade, negligent fisheries management and enforcement, and consumers’ indifference to the fate of the fish they choose to buy.1 There are simply too many boats chasing too few fish to sustain the current consumption rate of fish. In recent years, there has been an increased shift in the way fishing industries are allowed to use natural resources such as quota systems for certain bodies of water, encouraging fishing “down the food chain” (e.g.: jellyfish), and aquaculture’s increased popularity

MATURITY Image above from http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2007/04/global-fisheries- crisis/montaigne-tex Though this adjustment is a great start, the fishing industry still has a

long way to go. It is currently approaching a peaking point but may The giant bluefin tuna can grow to 12 feet (4 meters) in length, weigh 1,500 pounds soon decrease in productivity. (680 kilograms), and live for 30 years. It is an exquisitely hydrodynamic creation, able to streak through water at 25 miles (40 kilometers) an hour and dive deeper than SIGNALS half a mile (0.8 kilometers). Unlike most other fish, it has a warm-blooded circulatory • Turning the high seas into “a fish bank for the world”.2 A 2014 system that enables it to roam from the Arctic to the tropics. Its buttery belly meat, study proposed the bold idea of closing the high seas to fishing liberally layered with fat, is considered the finest sushi in the world. Over the past outright, and found that doing so would actually increase decade, a high-tech armada, often guided by spotter planes, has pursued giant bluefin from one end of the Mediterranean to the other, annually netting tens of the profits earned by fisheries as well as improve fish stocks. ² Scientists claim this will not affect the fishing industry’s economic thousands of the fish, many of them illegally returns, and will ensure that profits from fisheries are more equitably distributed.³ • Regional Fisheries Management Organizations (countries that share a practical and/or financial interest in managing and • Iceland has a sea limit around the island which marked off the conserving fish stocks in a particular region) have become zone that could be fished by Icelanders alone to protect the significantly more common in recent years.⁵ diminishing fishing stock, particularly cod and haddock.⁴

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IMPLICATIONS 5. Guide to RFMOs. (2012, February 23). Retrieved November 25, 2015, from http:// www.pewtrusts.org/en/imported-old/other-resources/2012/02/23/guide-to- • This adjustment in priorities poses potential for stronger regional-fisheries-management-organizations-rmfos underwater ecosystems as a result of the opportunity to grow 6. How much fish do we eat? (2015, January 30). Retrieved November 25,2015, from without (international fishing) harm https://allyouneedisbiology.wordpress.com/2015/01/30/how-much-fish-do-we- eat/ • It also poses potential for completely different underwater ecosystems as a result of an increase in what is now sparse and a 7. Kourous, G. (n.d.). Many of the world’s poorest people depend on fish.Retrieved November 25, 2015, from http://www.fao.org/Newsroom/en/news/2005/102911/ decrease in the fish from the bottom of the food chain index.html • Impoverished people whose only source of protein is fish are put at risk7 • This shift of priorities may cause an improvement in population health as a result of safer and more environmentally-friendly practices • A change in fishing practices can significantly change the fishing, fish vending, seafood/sushi industries and many more that currently rely on mass amounts of fishing for profits.

REFERENCES 1. Montaigne, F. (2007, April 1). Global Fisheries Crisis. Retrieved November 24, 2015, from http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2007/04/global-fisheries-crisis/ montaigne-text 2. Costello, C. (2014, March 25). Close the High Seas to Fishing? Retrieved November 25, 2015, fromhttp://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371/journal. pbio.1001826 3. Sekar, S. (2015, May 22). How to solve the global fish crisis? Ban fishing on the high seas. Retrieved November 25, 2015, from http://news.mongabay.com/2015/05/ how-to-solve-the-global-fish-crisis-ban-fishing-onthe-high-seas/ 4. Alter, B. (2009, June 3). Iceland is the Success Story of Sustainable Fishing. Image above: The evolution of the world population from 1800 to 2015 and the Retrieved November 25, 2015, from http://www.treehugger.com/corporate- increase of the fish consumption for person in the 1960s (9.9 kg) and in 2014 (19.2 kg) responsibility/iceland-is-the-success-story-of-sustainable-fishing.html from https://allyouneedisbiology.wordpress.com/2015/01/30/how-much-fish-do-we- eat/

49 POLITICS LABEL GAZING

Increased interest in food labelling, nutritional content and food INDIVIDUAL CHANGE BOTH INDIVIDUAL + INSTITUTIONAL production methods. (SMALL SCALE) INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE CHANGE (LARGE SCALE)

DESCRIPTION The last number of years has seen an increase in consciousness around all things food related. Consumers are more engaged than ever and looking to food labels to find out about what to avoid and what foods offer healthy options. There has been a greater push by consumers for greater transparency and the disclosure of ingredients, calorie counts in all foods. There seems to be an agreement on the need for improvements to the current labelling system, however, stalling tactics by the food industry have meant that label reading and interpretation is a hit and miss art and not an exact science.

MATURITY This trend is here to stay and consumers from Millennials to baby boomers are looking to make healthy food selections. It is expected to reach a tipping point with time and sustained consumer pressure to create a tangible and meaningful shift in how food is labelled. Image above: Truth in labelling from http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/6923814/UK- SIGNALS officials-accused-of-scuppering-compulsory-food-labelling-scheme.html • Food labels show ingredients, prevent health risks and allow for informed consumer decision making (Tierny, 2013). • Food industry has lobbied to halt modifications/improvements to food labels (Sacks, 2014). • Food labels must be modernized to reflect actual content of ingredients. There is a direct link between certain ingredients and certain diseases (Silverglade, 2010). IMPLICATIONS • Move to include health-warning labels on soda cans that are full • There are implications for the food industry and associated costs of sugar. (Khazan, 2014). related to a decrease in the use of preservatives • Miscounting and inaccurate representation of calories by food • More transparent and clear labelling will allow consumers to manufacturers on food labels (Hilts, 2015). make better food choices and in some cases decrease certain preventable diseases • Consumers are more interested in food labels to find out about nutritional content and food production. However, these labels • Better labelling will help fuel the conversation around healthier can be misinterpreted (Kovoski, 2015). options that are more sustainable and nourishing • Greater incentive for innovations in the food industry to find

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healthy options that are accessible and not laced with chemicals. REFERENCES 1. Heller, L. (2007, October 31). More consumers read product labels, says report. RELATED TRENDS Retrieved November 22, 2015, from http://www.foodnavigator-usa.com/ Suppliers2/More-consumers-read-product-labels-says-report • There is a greater sense of curiosity and engagement by 2. Hilts, P. (2015, April 27). On Food Labels, Calorie Miscounts. Retrieved November consumers regarding all issues related to how and where they 22, 2015, from http://well.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/04/27/on-food-labels-calorie- get their food from. The move to local and organic, the 100-mile miscounts/?_r=0 diet, the rise of urban gardens are all closely interconnected. 3. Khazan, O. (2014, February 18). The Case for Health-Warning Labels on • A higher level of consciousness around what consumers eat is also Soda. Retrieved November 22, 2015, from http://www.theatlantic.com/health/ archive/2014/02/the-case-for-health-warning-labels-on-soda tied to other consumer decisions 4. Kovoski, J. (2015, November 09). Ag economist looks at how consumers interpret • A counter trend is related to the mass production and increased food labels - SOURCE. Retrieved November 22, 2015, from http://source.colostate. influence of the food industry lobby that refuses to make edu/ag-economist-looks-at-how-consumers-interpret-food-labels/ meaningful changes to the food labelling system. 5. Silverglade, B., & Heller, I. (2010). Food Labeling. Food Regulation, 47-92. doi:10.1002/9780470409695.ch3 6. Tierny, K. (2013, February 14). 5 Reasons Why Labels Are Important. Retrieved November 22, 2015, from http://blog.paladinpos.com/5-reasons-why-labels-are- important/

51 POLITICS RECOGNISING ANIMAL SENTIENCE

A mounting understanding that pigs, cows and chickens have the advanced INDIVIDUAL CHANGE BOTH INDIVIDUAL + INSTITUTIONAL ability to perceive, sense and experience, physical, emotional and (SMALL SCALE) INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE CHANGE (LARGE SCALE) social circumstances.

DESCRIPTION The conditions of suffering that animals face in the industrial farm industry are being addressed with emerging policies declaring, ‘Animals as Sentient’. Under this consideration, animals have the right to be treated not merely as property, but as living creatures, with requirements for health and happiness.

MATURITY Animals Rights activists have been fighting to raise awareness around industrialized farming practices for years. New awareness spread with policy changes in 2015.

SIGNALS Policy Response: • France officially declared, ‘Animals as Sentient Beings’ overruling civil code set by Napoleon (Animals, 2015). • Amendment to New Zealand’s Animal Welfare Act, recognizing “that animals are sentient” (Animal Welfare, 2015) • Quebec legislation introduced a bill to increase fines around animal cruelty. The bill states that “animals are not things - they are sentient beings and have biological needs” (Paradis, 2015). News Reports: • Exposés declaring that the treatment of domesticated animals is the most pressing ethical issue of our time. Major news reports containing staggering statistics that 10s of billions of animals, who have the ability to sense and feel, are living and dying in horrible conditions (Harai, 2015).

Image above: An awareness campaign explaining the similarities between pigs and dogs by iVegan.ca, posted on the TTC subway (Jenny Whyte, November 23, 2015).

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Art/Media Awareness Campaigns: REFERENCES • The End of Meat is a feature length currently in production. It 1. Animals in France finally recognized as ‘living, sentient beings’ (2015, January 29). Retrieved November 22, 2015. aims to imagine what living in a truly compassionate society, without killing or exploiting animals would look like (End of 2. Animal Welfare Amendment Bill. (2015). Retrieved November 20, 2015, from Meat, 2015). http://www.legislation.govt.nz/bill/government/2013/0107/latest/whole. html?search=sw_096be8ed81047b83_sentient_25_se&p=1#DLM5174810 • Hundreds of demonstrators staged a “human” slaughterhouse 3. Crawford, E. (2015, March 17). Vegan is going mainstream, trend data suggests. at Place de Palais Royal in Paris to draw awareness to animal Retrieved November 24, 2015. exploitation (Hundreds, 2015). 4. Farm Animal Statistics: Slaughter Totals. (2015). Retrieved November 22, 2015, Statistics: from http://www.humanesociety.org/news/resources/research/stats_slaughter_ totals. html • 400 million fewer animals were killed in 2015 than in 2007 (Farm, 5. Ganga, M. (2015, May 4). The world’s first vegan mini-mall. Yeah, you’re in 2015). Portland. Retrieved November 22, 2015. 6. Harari, Y. (2015, September 25). Industrial farming is one of the worst crimes in IMPLICATIONS history. Retrieved November 21, 2015. Giving animals sentient rights will alter what governments deem 7. Hundreds Of Activists Covered In Blood Protest To Call A Stop To “Animal Holocaust”. (2015, September 29). Retrieved November 22, 2015. acceptable for industrialized farming practices. Growing awareness of animal’s sentient qualities, will alter people’s participation in the 8. Paradis, P. (2015). An Act to improve the legal situation of animals. National meat industry. Ethically sourced and created meat will continue to Assembly, Bill 54 (Session 1, 41 Legislature). gain value. Meat manufacturing will see continue to see a decrease in 9. The End of Meat: Movie Homepage. (n.d.). Retrieved November 21, 2015, from the number of animals needed to be raised for consumption. http://www.theendofmeat.com/en.html#film 10. What is Cultured Beef. (2015). Retrieved November 24, 2015, http://culturedbeef. net/what-is-it/ . RELATED TRENDS 11. 35 Mind-Shattering Facts Linking Factory Farming to Climate Change. (n.d.). Cultured Meat, in vitro meat and victimless meat research Retrieved November 24, 2015. http://www.peta.org/features/meat-climate- change/ undergoing testing to lower cost as well as to minimize impact on animals (Cultured Beef, 2015). New data reports Veganism and flexitarians is on the rise in America (Crawford, 2015). Environmental factors affecting widespread climate change can be directly linked to practices occurring in factory farming (35 Mind, 2015).

53 VALUES THE PEOPLE vs. FOOD SCIENCE

A growing divide between scientific research and public opinion with INDIVIDUAL CHANGE BOTH INDIVIDUAL + INSTITUTIONAL respect to GMOs, toxins, and climate change presents polarized ideas on (SMALL SCALE) INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE CHANGE (LARGE SCALE) how to feed a hungry planet.

DESCRIPTION There is a growing divide between public opinion and scientific fact, with dramatically differing views on critical issues such as toxins in food¹, climate change, and GMOs². This split in opinion is partially exasperated by the media, who report on studies that present contradictory data (e.g. red wine is good or red wine is bad³), or report poorly-conducted studies without critical analysis4,5. As a result, confused consumers distrust science, and often turn instead to celebrity opinion⁶. Unfortunately, their opinions may not be good advice, and in fact can be damaging (e.g. the impact of Jenny McCarthy’s views on vaccination or Gwyneth Paltrow’s latest obsession with steam cleaning her genitalia)⁶. In essence, there is a broken relationship between science and the public, and this divide is hindering the innovations required to feed a hungry planet⁷.

MATURITY This trend has been escalating for several years now, but has only Image above: The results of a Pew Research study, as reported by National recently singled out as an important issue. While it may take time to Geographic, show some major divides between scientific opinion and the opinion of resolve this divide (and it is unlikely to be completely resolved), it is the general public2,9 later on the trend curve due to its growing visibility. • Dr. Johannes Bohannan’s deliberately published a poorly- conducted study that showed eating chocolate contributes to SIGNALS weight loss. The study went viral, exposing the poor standards of • A Harvard Health publication warned of the “dubious science” scientific journalism⁵. behind popular detox diets¹. • An obesity researcher recently criticised a Coca Cola funded • “The War on Science” was National Geographic’s headline story study that said that exercise was more important than diet for for March 2015, questioning why many “reasonable people” are weight control, highlighting the issue of biased research reported now doubting scientific findings⁸. in the media10. • A study by Pew Research Center found a large gap between • A recent study showed that contradictory media reports on scientific and public opinion on topics like GMOs, climate nutrition leads to consumer confusion⁴. change, vaccinations 2,9. • CBS reporter Jessica Firger recently examined consumer distrust and confusion around science, and the shocking influence that

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celebrity has on shaping public opinion, in an article titled “Why REFERENCES do we believe celebrity pseudoscience?⁶. 1. Harvard Health - The Dubious Practice of Detox. (2008, June). Retrieved from http://www.health.harvard.edu/family_health_guide/the-dubious-practice-of- • Part of National Geographic’s Future of Food series, “The detox Carnivore’s Dilemma” showed that despite consumer’s poor views of beef feedlots, they may hold the key to feeding a hungry 2. Vergano, D. (2015, January 29). Poll Reveals Rift Between Scientists, Regular Folks. Retrieved November 13, 2015, from http://news.nationalgeographic.com/ planet ⁷. news/2014/06/150129-public-opinion-aaas-health-education-science/ 3. Dean, S. (2014, July 11). Is Wine Good for You? Or Bad? What Does Science Say? IMPLICATIONS Retrieved November 24, 2015, from http://www.bonappetit.com/trends/article/is- wine-good-for-you-a-look-at-scientific-studies-through-the-millennia • This trend will have significant influence over the widespread adoption of innovation in the food industry. While scientists may 4. Health Behavior News Service. (2014, January 28). Contradictory nutrition news creates consumer confusion. ScienceDaily. Retrieved November 21, 2015 from find appropriate solutions to food issues that face us today, these www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/01/140128153814.htm innovations cannot take hold without public buy-in. 5. Bohannon, J. (2015, May 27). I Fooled Millions Into Thinking Chocolate Helps • At the same time, the public may push for adoption of solutions Weight Loss. Here’s How. Retrieved November 15, 2015, from http://io9.com/i- that while popular, are potentially ineffective. The field of science fooled-millions-into-thinking-chocolate-helps-weight-1707251800 will need major bridge building initiatives and better public 6. Firger, J. (2015, February 5). Why do we believe celebrity pseudoscience? Retrieved relations to win back the trust and understanding of the mass November 17, 2015, from http://www.cbsnews.com/news/why-do-we-believe- market. celebrity-pseudoscience/ 7. Kunzig, R. (2014, November). Carnivore’s Dilemma. Retrieved November 21, 2015, • Journalists and celebrities can be the mediator between these from http://www.nationalgeographic.com/foodfeatures/meat/ groups, but perhaps the scientific industry should adopt 8. Achenbach, J. (2015, March). Why Do Many Reasonable People Doubt unorthodox approaches, like co-creation or citizen science, to Science? National Geographic. Retrieved from http://ngm.nationalgeographic. help rebuild trust. com/2015/03/science-doubters/achenbach-text 9. Funk, C., & Rainie, L. (2015, January 29). Public and Scientists’ Views on Science RELATED TRENDS and Society. Retrieved from http://www.pewinternet.org/2015/01/29/public-and- scientists-views-on-science-and-society/ • Biohacking, where institutions and individuals are exploring innovative gene editing techniques to alter existing organisms 10. CBC News. (2015, August 10). Coca-Cola’s research funding criticized by obesity expert. Retrieved November 21, 2015, from http://www.cbc.ca/news/health/coca- and potentially create synthetic life forms. This trend is an cola-s-research-funding-criticized-by-obesity-expert-1.3186279 extreme version of GMOs, and potentially walks a fine line of 11 11. Regalado, A. (2015, April 20). A Potato Made With Gene Editing. Retrieved ethics that should be discussed in a public forum . November 12, 2015, from http://www.technologyreview.com/news/536756/a- • Citizen Science is a counter trend that involves engaging the potato-made-with-gene-editing/ public in scientific research, showing the potential to bridge the 12. Mohammadi, D. (2014, January 25). How online gamers are solving science’s gap between consumers and scientists12. biggest problems. The Guardian. Retrieved from http://www.theguardian.com/ technology/2014/jan/25/online-gamers-solving-sciences-biggest-problems

55 VALUES BODIES AS A RESOURCE

When we die our bodies become the fertilizer that fuels future growth. INDIVIDUAL CHANGE BOTH INDIVIDUAL + INSTITUTIONAL Innovations in the death industry aims to raise awareness and provide (SMALL SCALE) INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE CHANGE (LARGE SCALE) solutions to facilitate a more sustainable return to the earth.

DESCRIPTION Innovators in the death industry are suggesting that in order to plan your ultimate, most sustainable contribution to the earth, one needs to consider death during life. The resources wasted in coffin building and the toxins released in human cremation (5,000 pounds of Mercury, from dental fillings alone) are being replaced with new designs and cultural practices, allowing people to choose a more sustainable contribution to the earth after death.

MATURITY Emerging

SIGNALS • Bios Urn, provides ‘life after life’ with a biodegradable urn and tree seed of your choice to be planted by loved ones after death Image above: Jae Rhim Lee wearing and explaining her mushroom death suit on (Bio, 2016) stage of TEDGlobal (Rhim, 2011). • Capsual Mundi is a biodegradable pod coffin which places the body in a fetal position and into the earth with a tree seed of your choice. They envision forests instead of cemeteries to honor the are left to gently and naturally decompose with the aid of dead. naturally occurring high-carbon decomposing materials. The • Natural Death Society is a website which provides information soil that will eventually overturn, will be carefully monitored for and knowledge of natural death sites where biodegradable coffins toxins and if safe, will be put back into the soil as a resource for and non-embalming practices are requirements. These natural growth (Urban, 2015). sites are minimally maintained, instead allowing nature to takes • Jae Rhim Lee and a team of researchers have created the course (Natural, 2015). Infinity Burial Suit (formally, Mushroom Burial Suit) which • Green Burial Council is a certification organization that aims to aims to cleanse the dead body of harmful chemical using toxin set the green standard for the deathcare industry. They focus on consuming mushrooms. Mushroom spores are woven into the educating citizens and industry professionals on green practices suit which is worn in death ensuring nontoxic decomposition which consider worker health, carbon reduction initiatives and (Mushroom, 2015). preserving and conserving natural habitat (Green, 2016). • The Urban Death Project, has proposed a tower where corpses

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• Also part of Rhim Lee’s research, the Decompiculture Kit. This 6. Natural Burial Grounds. (2015). Retrieved February 13, 2016, from http://www. kit contains pills which can be integrated at burial sites or become naturaldeath.org.uk/index.php?page=natural-burial-grounds part of non-toxic embalming fluids, releasing toxin eating 7. PANEL TALK: Set for Canada waste chat in Montreal. (2015, October 1). Solid mushroom spores, to aid in safe decomposition (Decompiculture, Waste and Recycling. 2015). 8. Rhim Lee, J. (2011, January 1). My mushroom burial suit. Lecture presented at TED GLOBAL. IMPLICATIONS 9. Urban Death Project Annual Report. (2015). Retrieved November 23, 2015, from http://urbandeathproject.org/assets/annual-repor t-2015.pdf A potential cultural shift from death denial and body preservation to a deeper awareness and understanding of the natural cycle of life and our deep connection to the environment. In preparing for death in life, we would ensure that our bodies are being used as a resource which can aid the planet, with true and complete environmental responsibility.

RELATED TRENDS Waste to resource innovations are happening around the world that are taking previously unused products and turning them into energy for sustainable resources (Panel, 2015).

REFERENCES 1. Bios Urn - Biodegradable Urn with seed. (2016). Retrieved February 13, 2016, from https://urnabios.com/ 2. Capsula Mundi. (2016). Retrieved February 13, 2016, from http://www. capsulamundi.it/en/ 3. Decompiculture Kit » Coeio. (2015). Retrieved November 24, 2015, from http:// www.coeio.com/decompiculture-kit/ 4. Green Burial Council. (2016). Retrieved February 13, 2016, from http:// greenburialcouncil.org/find-a-provider/ Image above: Capsula Mundi envisions a different approach to death, with their bio- 5. Mushroom Death Suit » Now the Infinity Burial Suit » Coeio. (2015). Retrieved degradable death to life pods (Capsula, 2016). November 23, 2015, from http://www.coeio.com/mushroom-death-suit

57 58 SCENARIOS

In the previous section, we uncovered trends that will affect what’s on the table in the future. Learning from these trends, the scenarios included in this section are constructed to evoke conceptual, hypothetical futures or plausible projections of the unknown (please see Appendix A for a full listing of trends and their relation to the scenarios).

“Scenarios are narratives of alternative environments in which today’s decisions may be played out. They are not predictions. Nor are they strategies. Instead they are more like hypotheses of different futures specifically designed to highlight the risks and opportunities involved in specific strategic issues” (Ogilvy & Schwartz, 1998).

CRITICAL UNCERTAINTIES In order to ensure the scenarios are qualitatively different, yet deductive and within a logical framework, we choose to use a 2x2 martix (Ogilvy & Schwartz, 1998). From our scanning we discovered a shared dependence on Use of Technology and Food Supply, leading us to the critical uncertainties: High vs. Low Technology Use and Abundance vs. Shortage of Food Supply.

Will our food supply continue to provide or will the strain we have placed on our environment drive us into food scarcity? How will the role of technology manifest itself in our future? Will technology continue to aid us and our food production, or will technology be limited in terms of development and adoption?

Looking at the 2x2 matrix, the availability of food supply (abundance or shortage) fall along the x-axis, and the use of technology (high or low) fall along the y-axis. It should be noted that in terms of technology, low technology use does not imply a regression in technology. Rather, in these worlds, current technology developments may not be as promising as originally planned, and consumers are cautious of new developments. On the converse, in the worlds of high technology use, consumer mindset is positive in terms of technology, and developments in technology are robust.

TIME FRAME AND GEOGRAPHICAL SCOPE These scenarios play out in Canada in the year 2030. Planning and enacting change for a company of this calibre takes time,

59 HIGH TECH ADOPTION

SCENARIOS

TECHNICALLY GMO 2.O STARVING

FOOD SHORTAGE FOOD ABUNDANCE

A TALE OF TWO PLENTY FOR THE WORLDS COMMONS

LOW TECH ADOPTION

60 and a series of distinct rollout phases. Organizing and investing in products and services development, adopting new supply chain links and adapting current consumer habits requires time to unfold. Moreover, many of the technologies highlighted in the scanning phase are in their infancy, and will take time to establish themselves. Loblaws has the potential to continue to be an industry leader in the future of food. However, it requires a deep consideration as the many possible futures that might unfold.

PREDETERMINED FACTORS AND DRIVERS: In addition to the critical uncertainties outlined above, there are several predetermined factors which form the groundwork for each scenario. While these factors play a role in each scenario, our means of adapting to them may vary based on the scenario’s circumstances.

1. Climate Change An increase in fossil fuel production over the last 250 years has forced our planet into a state of precarious uncertainty. Overall, global temperatures have increased 1.4 degrees Fahrenheit since 1880 and are predicted to continue rising, causing erratic and dangerous weather patterns. Millions of people across the globe are facing increasingly difficult circumstances due to drought and flooding. Global targets for slowing the effects of climate change were set in Paris in 2016 and the condition of our future world, depends on the achievement of these targets.

2. Baby Boomer Generation

The baby boomer generation, 1945-1965, is projected to have a longer life expectancy than any generation to have come before it. By 2030, the youngest baby boomer reaches age 65 (Statistics Canada, 2014). Close to one in four persons in Canada will be aged 65 years, compared with 15.3% in 2013. Baby boomers will exert considerable purchasing power.

3. Generation Z Grows Up

In 2011 Generation Z, the generation marked by those born from 1993 to 2011, is estimated to be 7.3 million people, or 22% of Canada’s population (Statistics Canada, 2015). In the year 2030, the early members of this generation will be in their thirties and will be making choices about what is on the table in Canadian family homes. This generation is marked by hyper connectivity, a shift in priorities from affluence to influence, and a focus on open innovation (Koulopoulos, 2014) This is a target market that Loblaws should keep in its crosshairs.

In addition to these predetermined factors, there are other drivers that affected the development of the scenarios. For example, pesticide and GMO usage, obesity, energy costs, water shortage, labour costs, the local food movement, and so forth. These drivers were also considered through the scenarios where they were most applicable.

The following pages explore the four unique scenarios that illustrate the potential food landscape in 2030.

61 SCENARIO 1: GMO 2.0

HIGH TECH ADOPTION

FOOD ABUNDANCE

62 CONTEXT In 2030, revolutionary developments in science and technology play a dominant role in shaping the food we eat. In reaction to the massive public distrust in GMOs which was prevalent in the 2010s, the scientific community actively worked to bridge the gap between science and public opinion. Using open innovation and social media, the scientific community actively sought public input on food studies in co-creation and citizen science projects. This initiative was hugely successful, bringing breakthrough technologies like candy-flavoured vegetables to the market, and winning over the public to the promise of GMO technologies. As a result the pressure to ban GMOs was lifted, and newly engineered food flooded the market throughout the 2020s.

Moreover, aggressive urges for action against climate change from both the scientific communities and the public are beginning to take hold in 2030. In the late 2010s there was a strong push to implement government programs, such as strict cap-and-trade systems and alternative energy subsidies, and in 2030 these systems are more established worldwide. That being said, climate change has not slowed down. Natural disasters are still increasing, but the scientific community has become more adept at anticipating them and adapting our food system to be more resilient against these disasters.

WHAT WE EAT AND WHERE IT COMES FROM Industrialised food production has taken root in urban centres. Vertical farms, powered by developments in smart aeroponic systems, are providing a local and diverse food source with minimal resources (e.g. energy input, environmental footprint, water and space). Crops are pollinated with “super bees”, genetically modified bees which were developed in response to colony collapse of the early 2010s, creating a vibrant yet wholly man-made urban ecosystem. While these farms are focused on growing bespoke food, traditional farming still exists, focusing instead on mass-market crops and dairy production.

Because custom GMO species can be swiftly developed, monoculture is a thing of the past and crop diversity has returned to agriculture. Custom, bespoke vegetables are grown on request in vertical farms, and each family has a “signature” plant that they show off with pride. Forgotten plants from ancient history are recreated with GMO technology, bringing a combination of Opposite images, clockwise from top left: high-tech crops and rich historic foods. MIT Media Lab. (2015), Shoe Heel Factory (2015), IKEA et al. (2015), An (2015)

63 SCENARIOS GMO 2.0 CONTINUED

Throughout the 2020s, diets were tailored based on an individual’s microbiome - the different bacteria strains dwelling inside us. This fascination with the dietary impact of micro-scale differences continues into 2030, where deep analysis of each VIGNETTE...OLIVIA person’s unique traits leads to personalised meal plans based on microbiome, genetic makeup, and even mood. These unique traits can be used to develop the bespoke Morning light streams through the bay crops grown in vertical farms. window, Ivan sits happily playing with his figurines. “What would you like for dinner Growth in personalised medicine and plant genomics allows doctors to request custom-grown medicinal crops for patients. This is incredibly useful for prolonging tonight, sweetheart?”. Unsurprised by his the health and wellness of baby boomers, who are well into their seventies and answer, Olivia hits the 3D printer to pizza eighties at this time, and enables them to live independently for a longer period. cubes, adding the advieh, the Persian spice mix her husband likes to 5 of the 10 pieces. In this world of abundance, consumers question the need to kill animals as Set to fresh, it will be ready at 5:30pm, her a source of food. Lab grown meat becomes a common, ethical, and far more affordable protein alternative. Everyday meats like beef and chicken are available work day never failing to have her home on in lab grown form, but less common meats such as sea turtle or ostrich are also time. available, introducing exotic or endangered animals to our palette. This isn’t without On route to work, Olivia passes through controversy, and there is a strong push in 2030 to ban lab-grown endangered animal meat, for fears that it encourages hunting of the real creatures. alternating shadows of dark and light, the green building sides, towering high above her. In terms of flavours, Western Asian food – with their unique blend of spices, fruits Smiling, she acknowledges the harvesters and grains – are commonplace, as relations warm with Iran, and second generation repelling from the towering roofs, busily immigrants from Afghanistan and Syria are established Canadian communities. pruning and tending the seeds she has Echoing the ubiquity of Vietnamese food in Canada after wave of Vietnamese migration in the late 1970s and early 80s, these western Asian foods are part of the created. Canadian tapestry. At her workplace, a series of new client profiles have been added to her computer. HOW WE EAT AT HOME A stream of G, A, T, and C flood the screen, Digital gastronomy tools become well-established in the home, with decreasing as she optimizes the genetic profile of the prices and faster technology making 3D printers as commonplace as the blender. tomato. Mumbling to herself, “Robinson, age This technology brings new ingredients, forms and textures to our culinary lexicon, 44, tomato optimized to increase serotonin, often made from food powders reconstituted into a printable medium. Individual ingredient cartridges are readily available in grocery stores, but for convenience lycopene, B12.” sake, cartridge kits for whole meals are also available. Recipes are downloaded

64 IMPLICATIONS FOR LOBLAWS: • Explore the role Loblaws could play in a world where vertical farming is prevalent, such as by sourcing new suppliers or developing their own to the printer from open-sourced food printing sites, and are easily customised farms to the personalised diets created for each individual. While these printers can be used to create novel, imaginative dishes for special occasions, their ability to make convenience food sparked their popularity. For time-crunched days, full meals are • Collaborate with kitchen design printed automatically and ready on the table just as the family is getting home from companies to develop intelligent their day. In essence, 3D printers usher in a new era of convenience food, one that is tailored to individual needs and wants, is less unhealthy and just as fast as the ready- kitchen environments, including 3D made meals of the 20th Century. printers and immersive experiences

However, food isn’t only machine-made in 2030. People still enjoy the process • Investigate the potential in 3D of making food by hand, but home chefs are now guided with digital assistants. Immersive kitchen tools use projection mapping and gesture controls to turn printed food, and what new products kitchens into an intelligent environment, guiding home chefs through recipes and Loblaws would need to develop techniques, and suggesting new ingredient combinations. Recipes are chosen based on which ingredients are in the home, the mood of the family, and specific dietary needs. This personalised information also helps chef develop customised vegetables • Develop tools for digital gastronomy, to be grown at the local vertical farm. These intelligent tools can also facilitate such as digital cooking assistants; grocery store shopping, allowing people to view what’s available at the local shops, personalised nutritional profiles based place orders, and check the status of their personalised vegetable crop. on genetics, mood and microbiomes; Virtual dining experiences also prove beneficial for reuniting people who live in tools for developing custom genetically far-flung places. People living alone are able to share a meal with loved ones without leaving their home. For those seeking new connections, serendipitous dining tools modified food; and virtual reality match people with strangers based on their personalities and food preferences, dining acting as a new way of social networking through virtual dining. • Become an industry leader in DOWNSIDES commercializing lab grown meat There are downsides to this food abundance. A never ending array of synthetic food – engineered for addictive flavour– results in a continuing issue with obesity. • Explore Western Asian food, Technological developments attempt to mitigate some of these issues. For example, ingestible nanotechnology pills absorb excess carbohydrates and fats from discovering new ingredients and overindulgences. In addition, the widespread use of virtual reality has garnered in recipes and developing products to the era of “guilt-free dining”, where immersive virtual reality experiences mimic the pleasure of eating unhealthy food without the negative side effects. match

65 SCENARIO 2: PLENTY FOR THE COMMONS

FOOD ABUNDANCE

LOW TECH ADOPTION

66 CONTEXT An antibiotic resistant gene, traced to genetically modified corn, was responsible for the death of 33,045 people in 2020. The epidemic outbreak ripped through North America and created widespread GMO distrust. Global targets to curb climate change were not achieved in time. By 2023 droughts, fire and rising sea level, undeniably linked to Climate Change, have altered the landscape of the world. Millions of people have been displaced and continue to migrate to ‘more stable’ regions.

Beginning in 2022 Canada shut down the tar sands industry with the support of the United Nations Environmental Council. The Council for Canadian Energy formed in 2021 to develop sustainable energy infrastructure projects. Most international trade has stalled and Canada reframed national policy to protect the Canadian commons.

WHAT WE EAT AND WHERE IT COMES FROM Food is fresh and local.

The Southern Ontario growing season has been extended from April to November, due to shifts in Global Climate weather patterns. The people’s trust and reliance on the government and the global food market was fundamentally altered by 2020. Citizens groups band together to take care of our one fundamental need: the production of food.

A shift to localized food production began in 2017 and again gathered momentum in 2020. Early climate change activists and anti GMO supporters, lead the movement for a local and natural food economy. Elderly people living longer and with greater vitality into their older lives, have become driving forces in community food production. Beginning in 2021, governments consulted the knowledge of native elders and rural farming communities to gather wisdom and knowledge to produce growing information for the masses. Food technology innovators and systems thinkers were called upon to create new local food production systems.

Lawns around the country were converted to crops. Urban roofs plot set up with aquaponics systems, marketed and installed by existing major retailers for fresh fish and vegetable growing. Opposite images, clockwise from top left: Bee populations thrive over time, with new innovations in beekeeping practices. Sabino (2015), The Huffington Post (2013), Mucci (2015), Madamba (n.d.)

67 PLENTY FOR THE COMMONS SCENARIOS CONTINUED

VIGNETTE...GREG Grey heads bob between rows of towering green stocks. As Greg slowly saunters towards the once Community gardens and community kitchens have been integrated into our educational institutions, correctional facilities and active living centers, teaching barren parking lot, he recalls a moment in citizens how to grow and cook nutritious food. Former white and blue collar workers time in his 20s meeting travelling with a crew have become ‘ambassadors of green’ for communities around Canada. of hippies to a commune farm on the edge of Lake Superior. Something about green rows Seed share banks have been set up in every community. Markets, town halls and triggers a reflective smile. libraries provide organic seeds for growing, free of charge. Seed sharing schemes continue to roll out, each growing season. Citizens are educated on how to recoup The garden keeper of the active living center seeds for next year’s growing. Some citizens have also engaged in global seed trading greets him with a smile and cool glass of bartering systems. water. “Glad, you’re here today, it’s harvest Store sell hard to produce products, things such as butter, bread, dairy, baked goods, day for the green beans.” treats, grains, pasta alternative soy and wheat proteins and limited meat. A new wave After spending the majority of the afternoon of food entrepreneurs pops up in the form of informal market spaces. in the garden, Greg and the rest of the seniors With the known impact industrialized farming has on climate change, a shift has gather in the dining hall for salad, green occurred in people’s expectation of meat in their daily diet. Untraditional forms of beans and a micro portion of free range protein taken up by new local entrepreneurs who grow crickets and mealworm for chicken from two plots down. Everything had sale or trade. is shared. A nationwide food redistribution network has been set in place to mitigate Greg looks around smiling at his fellow senior food waste and provide abundance for all members of society. These networks citizens. Together they sway to the folk music spread across the cities. Funding for these projects was provided by companies playing live from the corner of the room. He with a surplus of money looking to contribute to Canada in a positive way. Food manufacturing happens on a localized scale powered through renewable initiatives. concludes again, almost as though he forgot: happiness is but a state of mind.

68 IMPLICATIONS FOR LOBLAWS: • Movement away from fossil fuelled production and distribution networks which contribute to climate change recommended (e.g. meat production, HOW WE EAT AT HOME exotic fruits and foods from international markets) Citizens are no longer interested in food products full of chemicals and preservatives. Personally growing and preserving one’s own foods becomes part of the household structure. Making food from scratch occurs frequently in the home as • Invest in producing low tech energy most citizens taught how to cook. technology for households (biofuel,

Communities of people regularly come together to share cooking and conversation solar, wind) at community meals. A cultural shift in values, helps people to appreciate the simple things in life. • Begin fostering a shift in personal subsistence development, self- The newly settled communities of displaced people affected by global climate change have begun to fully integrate into Canada, contributing greatly to the food economy. producing education and consultations Grateful and humble for land and seed they have made efforts to involve own for growing abundance. cultural practices of growing, preserving and cooking traditional food and sharing recipes with community. • Develop seed banks in stores to DOWNSIDES promote democratized growth network Many people have had to face bouts of unemployment and displacement due to the effects of climate change. A lot of struggle has occurred. New forms of structure in society are sought and explored, but have left people resistant to change and uncomfortable. Mental health issues are on the rise due to heavy bouts of uncertainty and change, but communities band together, taking care of each other. Together, citizens focus on the tangible rewards of success through fulfilling food production.

69 SCENARIO 3: A TALE OF TWO WORLDS

FOOD SHORTAGE

LOW TECH ADOPTION

70 CONTEXT In 2030, the world is reaping the seeds of what it has put the planet through. Climate change is now a reality and there is no end in sight. Certain plants are extinct due to severe water shortages. The seas have been polluted and overfished, so that, only limited parts of the world can now be fished. Those areas are closely guarded. Only those with access to money and power can find and purchase fresh fish, which is sold in very small quantities, similar in many ways to how caviar is currently sold on the world market.

The aggressive lobbying against GMOs has led to worldwide government mandated bans on GMOs. As result, only heritage seeds can be grown and those are controlled by large corporations. Since these seeds are not resistant to insects, the yield is very low. As a result, there are global food shortages. The continued increase in population has only contributed to the crisis of food shortage. Unpredictable weather patterns related to global warming, have led to droughts and floods. Crops have been severely impacted by these weather patterns. As a result, fresh food is being sold at premium prices to those who can afford it. This has led to many people growing food at home and looking to the black market for GMO seeds. To improve food access and security people have resorted to growing food in their basements and raising chicken in their backyards. There are hundreds of online and offline groups that offer tips and a community where first time growers can access information.

With the shortage in food supplies, there is greater emphasis on the social aspects of food consumption. There is an increase in the rituals surrounding the preparation and consumption of certain types of food, special tools and utensils are used to aid in the promotion of these rituals. In addition, food items that were once in abundance are now considered special treats and sold at premium items (indulgence items).

There is a highly differentiated two tier system that separates those with and without resources Opposite images, clockwise from top left: (socioeconomic and education based). This lack of access to nutritious food options has led to a March Against Monsanto (n.d.), Tales of rise in obesity and diabetes and the government stepping in to support food banks and provide Gardening Greatness. (n.d.), Christine, A. subsidies. (n.d.), Teasley, E. (2013).

71 A TALE OF TWO WORLDS SCENARIOS CONTINUED

VIGNETTE...KYLE Noiselessly, Kyle pulls the floorboard up just enough for the day light to filter into the dark space. Here he finds, one shrivelling potato, one can of salmon (expiry 2027), one small bag of dry pasta and what he’s looking for, an air sealed Kit Kat dated 2021.

KNOCK, KNOCK --- Kyle, nearly jumping out There is a greater awareness around the power of collectives to come together to of his skin, drops the floor board with a bang attempt to fill the gap. Certain foods are now sold at auction as they no longer exist and freezes to listen carefully, for his snorts and are accessible to the very affluent and sold behind walls of secrecy. This world of of his piggish landlady, who always seems to scarcity is dominated by a sense of competition over resources from water to energy know when there is food out. and food. Certain types of food, which were abundant, such as honey, are now kept locked and only used for medicinal purposes. Naturopaths and natural healers with “Kyle, it’s Jane, wake up, it’s your Birthday!” their reliance on herbs and fresh sources of food have gained popularity and now are the go to people for healing and nutritional counselling. It is in essence a return to A sigh of relief washes over him. Jane is his nature with its bounty and a move away from the processed and artificial. best friend in the communal unit and who he will be sharing his birthday KitKat with. WHAT WE EAT AND WHERE IT COMES FROM They run and climb to the most deserted area The reliance on non-GMO seeds has led to a food shortage that has encouraged they can think of – uptown, along a stream the rise of farming cooperatives in the middle of urban centers. Neighbours are coming from the north. Once out of breath coming together to pool resources, share tips and grow food collectively. This has and seemingly safe, Jane opens her pack led to the rise of the ‘potluck’ as a way to share food. Food scarcity has meant that new dishes now include all parts of the plant or animal, nothing is thrown away. The to present a fresh loaf of bread and cream unpredictability in weather patterns has also meant that those crops that are grown cheese. She won’t tell Kyle where she got it have become a valuable resource to be guarded and protected. Underground groups from, indicating to him that she stole it, a have sprouted where farming knowledge is exchanged in informal circles. plight not uncommon for her, yet particularly endearing on this special day of his 12 year of life. Together they feast, unworried about tomorrow.

72 IMPLICATIONS FOR LOBLAWS: • Potential to appeal to the high end of the market by providing an undisrupted supply of healthy and fresh foodoptions.

• Development of value products that use exotic ingredients such as cricket powder

• Selling at home starter kits for home HOW WE EAT AT HOME grown worm kits to access alternative With the high cost of food there is a move to make things at home from scratch. sources of protein. At-home urban gardens are now all the rage and communal food sharing is an “in thing”. Food that is recycled is repackaged and sold again. Fresh food when it is • Market for lower priced items that found is portioned into smaller quantities and served with healthy staples and fillers. The high end of the market is focused on accessing the best and freshest products, focus on the trash to table food. ie. such consumers are willing to pay top dollar for premium products. A decrease in bruised and slightly damaged. May be portion size is a way of life for many and a food barter system is now in full bloom. developed into its own line of products

DOWNSIDES • Offering of venues and places to Although the return to basics and non GMO seeds has been good on the one hand connect for communal dining and in terms of going back to nature, but it has also meant a shortage of fresh food. Lack sharing of food, Loblaws to act as a of access to fresh food is having major health implications from lack of fertility to the rise in mental health issues. The restriction of fishing to certain areas in the connecting hub, provide a local app. world has deprived many of a way of life and access to traditional seafood dishes that are part of their heritage. For those without many resources, this has meant going • Host monthly community dinners/ without food and relying on leftovers that lack proper nutrition. The high cost of breakfasts. food has meant that higher percentages of disposable income now go to support food basics. The impact is felt far beyond the dinner table. • Help support urban gardens through the offering of seeds and expertise.

73 SCENARIO 4: TECHNICALLY STARVING

HIGH TECH ADOPTION

FOOD SHORTAGE 74 CONTEXT In the world of 2030, Prime Minister Stephen Harper and the Conservative Party have been re-elected for a second term to govern Canada. The climate change initiatives of former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau (2015-2025) and the COP21UN partners have completely lost traction. The high costs of energy, consumer goods, and food shortages have created global and domestic economic instability. Massive drought conditions have created food shortages. Public support for climate change initiatives in Canada is at its lowest ebb, as the benefits will still take years to take hold. Canadians have given Harper a new mandate for a renewed food and energy policy,

Harper’s first policy is to repeal all climate change initiatives, even though Canada is plagued with drought conditions and very limited drinking water. Nuclear energy plants are scaled up to meet electricity requirements for the growing electric car market and technology-mediated foods. Investments in wind and solar energy have proven sustainable only on a small scale. Fossil fuels are once more made available in response to public opinion and multinational energy conglomerates seeking to restore their market positions.

Harper’s Conservative economic platform favours a free market economy by removing all subsidies to egg, dairy, and wheat producers. Barriers to global trade are lifted allowing many unregulated food products into the country posing safety risks to human consumption. Governments are partnering with the private sector to develop innovative food technologies that can scale up quickly.

In the early 2000’s farming was driven by high production monoculture farming methods using GM seeds to deal with the unpredictable yearly consequences of climate change. Newly developed GM crop varieties are no longer resistant to pests and disease while drought conditions have left soil depleted of nutrients for future food production resulting in “dust bowl” disasters. Incentives are offered to large food producers using massive greenhouse operations to scale up production in response to the shortage.

The government with the support of the public, has lifted bans on GM meat, poultry and fish, with tax incentives to GM and other food technology companies to relocate to Canada to scale up engineered food production for rapid commercialization. Lenient regulations for GM Opposite images, clockwise from top left: products permit rapid market penetration. Costeau, P. (2013) Acker, D. (2012), Bolan, K. (2011) LSN Global (2015)

75 TECHNICALLY STARVING SCENARIOS CONTINUED

VIGNETTE...CONNOR “Dust Bowl now affecting 67% of the prairie Canada’s urban population increases with immigrants coming from conflict-ridden provinces…Grain shortages have cause prices to countries in the Middle East, Western Asia, and the Horn of Africa. sky rocket...Harper reiterates stance on oil fuelled industries...false hope...tainted food recall, due to IS terrorists, the new energy imperialists, are now controlling much of the world’s oil inclusion of sawdust filler...” stocks. Canada is responding to this threat by giving exploration and drilling rights to Connor only half listening, swipes the webcast multinational oil conglomerates, creating further environmental deterioration. away, districted by his grumbling stomach. The blazing sun catches him off guard as he steps The aging baby boomers, the wealthiest demographic in Canada, continue to be the beyond his stoop, concluding it must be at least 3 largest consumers of health care. They dominate markets for specialized food and degrees hotter than it was yesterday. He walks the clothing, as well as customized housing and furnishings. route most shaded by the urban sprawl, passing a collection of dishevelled people waiting in line WHAT WE EAT AND WHERE IT COMES FROM with their bowl for soup, spat out from a food In a world of food scarcity and high technology, all science and technology resources repurposing nozzle at the corner of Queen and are mobilized to solve the food crisis. Fresh produce is in short supply. Artificial Broadview. ecosystems created in smart greenhouses in rural areas cannot meet the demand. He enters the store greeted by a friendly robot who welcomes him to “Fresh Mart – where fresh Developments in GMO seeds have not adapted to drought conditions. GMO is best!” Scanning the store, there is no fresh livestock continue to rely on high agricultural yield as the shortage of feed persists. produce today, but for a shrivelling tomato and On-going attempts to create cultured-meat products have met with low consumer lettuce head held behind the glass case under adoption. Food technology labs have slowed down production as taste, shape, and lock and key. colour cannot be perfected without additional capital investment. He diverts to the canned good section, the The relative high cost of smart 3D printers for digitized food preparation remains robot following him in hopes to, “help you make out of reach for the middle and lower income earners. There have been attempts to something fresh today!” He scans a can of beans develop forever-fresh food technology that converts food waste into a high nutrient across the robots face. A voice pipes up, “Beans edible powder, yet this also requires more research and development aux Provence – mix the beans with water, sprinkle with Provence herb substitute. Voila!” Water shortages also prevent farming of GMO fish and seafood in greenhouse-like climate controlled structures. Investments in new water technologies have potential Connors sighs, dreaming of his mother baked to increase fish production. beans and ham at summer BBQs.

76 IMPLICATIONS FOR LOBLAWS: • Establish alliances across the sectors of nutrition, health, agriculture, technology, and environment to promote innovations in food that are sustainable, low cost and highly Urban growing space is very limited due to overcrowding with the constant arrival of newcomers. Traditional playgrounds and grassy parks are transformed into nutritious communal gardens using new forms of fertilizer derived from human remains. • Partner with government and food Crime has penetrated the food sector where both well established and start-up food producers are marketing synthetic food with counterfeit labeling. Unregulated food producers to develop new sources of products, coming into the country may contain bacteria that can cause spoilage food proteins and highly nutritious or foodborne disease. All these foods pose health and safety public health risk to food alternatives. Canadians. • Create partnerships with the local SOCIAL IMPACT OF FOOD SHORTAGES community to support social initiatives In a world of food scarcity and high technology usage, there is a major shift in values that favour community building. Alternative economies are emerging and have the such as space for community meals, effect of leveling all socio-economic differences featuring non-competitive bartering recipe testing and conduct public and ration sharing. Simultaneously the rise of communal dining where sharing food education on food safety. also bridges the gap between rich and poor. New dining rituals have emerged to recognize the new relationship of food with society. Solo diners are using technology to simulate the dining experience on-line as a coping strategy to deal with the misery • Introduce smart technology in of food scarcity. supermarkets that facilitate the In this world, deprivation of basic food and water has a direct relationship to public preparation of personalized take–out health. The effects of malnutrition, dehydration, and despair are seen in the rise of meals, provide recipes for food in your disease, disability, and mental health issues with fewer resources to cope with health shopping basket, and recommend needs. other items that result in a quick THE SMART SUPERMARKET nutritious meal. Time-strapped consumers are working long hours at numerous jobs to keep up with the high cost of living. They are seeking reasonably priced fast, fresh food, with high (CONTINUED ON NEXT PAGE) nutritional value that can be prepared with a minimum of effort and time.

77 TECHNICALLY STARVING SCENARIOS CONTINUED

Supermarkets are taking a leadership role by working with the public to address IMPLICATIONS FOR LOBLAWS shortages through smart in home and online technology that generate customized menus based on customer’s genetic profile, health considerations, and food CONTINUED: availability, shopping selections or the specials offered that day. Smart technology quickly identifies customer’s product requests by comparing ingredients, nutritional • Scale up investments in alternative value, price, and location in the store. In addition, robots have replaced cashiers foods such as cultured food products reducing lines for time–strapped shoppers. as well as high nutrient forever fresh Supermarkets are offering spaces for community dining using recipes, ingredients, shopping basket, and recommend and alternative cooking methods developed for shortage conditions. They are other items that result in a quick investing in new food technologies that have a high nutritional benefit for an undernourished society. Open-source digital applications provide users with nutritious meal. resources and recipes to maximize their available food stock.

• Scale up investments in alternative CONSIDERATIONS foods such as cultured food products There are ethical and health considerations surrounding new food sources. There as well as high nutrient forever fresh is concern that relaxed regulations of engineered food will result in improper testing for human consumption. Deregulation of trade tariffs allows food imports technologies that can be customized to originating from unknown sources with dubious ingredients. In addition, privacy individual genetic and health profiles. regulations around the use of genetic and health profile is a pressing issue that requires public debate. Overall, consumers are taking more responsibility for the • Provide public education on safety of their food and the privacy of personal data. gardening for drought conditions by introducing new seed varieties, fertilizers, and growing methods in the garden centres.

• Take a leading role in the public debate over genetic and health profile data protection.

78 FUTURE-PROOFING LOBLAWS Scenario mapping, relative to critical uncertainties “Use of Technology” and “Food Supply”, can inform decisions for Loblaws in order to keep them as leaders throughout upcoming changes in the Canadian dining experience. Given the diverse range of scenarios explored in this paper, and their specific implications, the following directions point Loblaws to methods of future proofing themselves against an uncertain future: • a movement away from fossil fuelled production and distribution, establishing alliances across the sectors of nutrition, health, agriculture and climate to promote innovations in food that are sustainable, low cost and highly nutritious; • investment in the production of low-tech energy technology for households; • shifting personal subsistence development and self-producing education; • fostering community interaction while promoting the health benefits of home-grown/ produced food through fairs and markets; • providing an undisrupted supply of healthy and fresh food options; • scaling up investments in alternative foods such as cultured food products as well as forever fresh technologies that are high in nutrients and can be customized to individual health needs; • providing public education in your garden centres on gardening for drought conditions by introducing new seed varieties, fertilizers, and growing methods; • creating a market for less priced items that focus on the trash to table food; and supporting urban gardens through the offering of seeds and expertise.

Loblaws’ product cycle development plan needs to be prepared for the differing manifestations of predetermined factors of climate change, baby boomers aging, and a generational shift. Regardless of which scenario(s) develop by 2030, Loblaws has the opportunity to greatly impact both what’s on the table and dining in Canada.

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Trash to table [Photograph]. (2015, April 06). LSNglobal.com. 81 Image source: Hala Beisha 82 STRATEGIES

“All the notions we thought solid, all the values of civilized life, all that made for stability for international locations, all that made for regularity in the economy...in a world that, all that tended to happily limit the uncertainty of the morrow, all that gave nations and individuals some confidence in the morrow… all this seems badly compromised. I have consulted all the augurs I could find, of every species, and I have heard only vague word, contradictory prophecies, curiously feeble assurances. Never has humanity combined so much power with so much disorder, so much anxiety with so many playthings, so much knowledge with so such uncertainty” Paul Valery, 1932.

Understanding the unpredictability of the world, Peter Valery in his 1932 essay was an early proponent of the practice of strategic foresight as an imperative in strategic business development. Scenarios are an essential tool to ensure that business strategy proposals are relevant both the company and the future.

WIND TUNNELLING AND STRATEGY GENERATION In this strategy section, Loblaws is presented with a number of strategic opportunities to consider in order to remain successful in 2030. A wind tunneling exercise was conducted, by taking multiple strategies ‘for a walk’ through each scenario, to understand what strategic options would thrive or die across the distinct future scenarios. Scenario fit was qualified with low, medium and high ratings to gauge and facilitate choosing the strategy proposals to put forward (see Appendix B). Wind Tunneling was also used to think more deeply about strategies and their implications (Van der Heijden, n.d.). Thereafter, the short list of strategies were chosen based on their potential robustness or risk, and which aligned best with the culture and capabilities of Loblaws.

83 CULTURE OF LOBLAWS’ CORPORATE DNA AND FIT WITH STRATEGIC OPTIONS There are key elements of an organization’s DNA that make certain strategic options more or less attractive to them. In the case of Loblaws, the features listed below will allow for ease of implementation and adoption of the suggested strategies. These features of Loblaws are as follows:

• Loblaws was originally founded by two partners, who offered the market a new way of grocery shopping. They were told it would never work but the chain took off. The company has proven over the years that it has an entrepreneurial spirit.

• Loblaws introduced new service and product innovations to pounce on changing consumer trends and to leverage demographic shifts. (Green Products, Black Label)

• Loblaws is willing to make heavy financial investments for long term impact and financial sustainability and relevance. Case in point is Loblaws’ huge investment and buy out of Shoppers Drug Mart to focus on wellness and urban populations.

• Loblaws is willing to make investments in systems, people and infrastructure to position itself for sustained future success. (introduction of PC products, Joe Fresh, PC Financial and supplier code of conduct)

• Loblaws understands the slim margins and increased competition from others in the grocery business. The pattern of its strategic decision is proactive versus reactive. (Guiding Star program)

• Loblaws appreciates and understands its role as a main player and contributor to the health and well being of Canadian society.

With all these factors in mind, the strategic designers believe Loblaws is well positioned to embrace the changes the food industry will face in 2030. Considering Loblaws history of developing innovative and diverse offerings, it is purposed that Loblaws become a leader in food sustainability management and high tech health and wellness solutions.

1. Always Local: shifting food production to urban and near-urban space.

2. Beyond Meat: becoming a market leader in providing protein alternative.

3. Bespoke Wellness: technological facilitated customized food.

4. Accessible Wellness: providing a full suite of wellness solution to Boomers’ homes.

5. Second Life: finding new potential in near expired food.

84 STRATEGY 1: ALWAYS LOCAL MILD GAMBLE STRATEGY

Implementation of this strategy will be necessary if current conditions of global climate change, currency depreciation and the high cost food and transportation persist. STRATEGIES By encouraging food production close to the urban environment, Loblaws has the opportunity to alter the current food acquisition and distribution supply chain to be more affordable, diverse, less resource intensive and higher quality produce.

By partnering with high volume greenhouse growers and with investments in vertical growing technologies; new contracts with local commercial growers have the opportunity to become the main producer of fresh produce for store distribution. By sourcing produce from local, protected growing environments, Loblaws can the trusted source of safe, reliable products.

This is a mild gamble because its success will be greater in a world of high technology adoption. In addition, this is a higher cost strategy for new growers, but through Loblaws’ investment in growing technology, they can facilitate the development of this new approach.

Risks, Contingencies, Caveats: The following must be considered when implementing this strategy: local partnership development with farmers, viability of technology, urban zoning laws, and potential impact on global trade partners (including government pressure to support trade deals). Cost of land in near-rural areas is expensive and limited, although farming can be done on non-agricultural land.

Measures of Success: Adequate supply of food; quality, flavour, longevity and yields surpass current imports; price is competitive

Influence:While Loblaws’ cannot directly affect the viability of the technologies, they can influence its development through investment, policy and partnerships. Moreover, while Loblaws will not be farming the food themselves, by sourcing growers fitting these criteria, they will have an influence on the nature of farming near cities.

Image: Aeroponic gardens. Source: http://www.advancednutrients.com/articles/aero- ponics-beyond-hydroponics-in-high-tech-gardening/

85 STRATEGY 1: ALWAYS LOCAL CONTINUED ACTIONS AND SIGNPOSTS

CORPORATE OPERATIONS PRODUCTS SERVICES + EDUCATION STAKEHOLDERS + Source food from vertical Feature local and Develop an accreditation PARTNERSHIPS farms, greenhouse farms competitively priced standard to certify the Create new partnerships or indoor growers using fresh produce and fish quality of urban grown with vertical garden and emerging aqua and sourced from greenhouses, produce, to support greenhouse growers and aeroponic systems for high vertical gardens, aqua and growers and for consumer demand standards in yields of fresh produce, aeroponic gardens. protection. production methods to fresh or saltwater fish Use educational promotion ensure low environmental Encourage high yield to develop an awareness impact, high long term through investment in around the benefits of sustainability. robotic growing technology locally grown food. that requires minimal human labor and relies on renewable energy sources. Invest in R&D for local tropical food production.

SIGNPOSTS: SIGNPOSTS: SIGNPOSTS: SIGNPOSTS: Rising cost of food imports Lower costs and higher yields Continued interest in local Growth in other alternative National targets for low of aeroponic and aquaponic food movement farming practices emissions farming Patents for alternative farming

86 SCENARIO FIT: HIGH TECH ADOPTION STRATEGIES

TECHNICALLY STARVING GMO 2.O Strategy resonates here as Strategy resonates here as technology and large scale technology and large scale commercialization are suited for commercialization are suited for this world. this world.

FOOD SHORTAGE FOOD ABUNDANCE

A TALE OF TWO WORLDS PLENTY FOR THE COMMONS Urban vertical farms are less likely Urban vertical farms are less likely here, as the technology will not be here, as the technology will not be developed fully. In this scenario, developed fully. In this scenario, focus on near-urban greenhouse focus on near-urban greenhouse technologies which are better technologies which are better established. established.

LOW TECH ADOPTION

TIMELINE: 2016 2030

Announce policy shift for Put out tenders to high Scale up local growing Only purchase locally grown locally grown food, to volume growers within 50 production. Implement produce. potential local growers km radius local growing of yield high within a 50 km radius of tropical produce. urban Loblaws. Invest R&D for local tropical food production.

87 STRATEGY 2: BEYOND MEAT ROBUST STRATEGY

In this strategy there is an opportunity for Loblaws to become a leader in alternative protein sources. The production and distribution of farmed meats have known adverse effects on the environment. We can no longer depend on long distance sourcing of animal protein products due to increased environmental considerations. With research and development in non-animal protein sources Loblaws could create a shift in market consumption patterns to more local, cultured, non-animal protein sources.

This is a robust strategy because all scenarios require some form of alternative protein. However, some scenarios will more likely to adopt cultured products, while others will resort to low tech solutions such as insects and algae.

Risks, Contingencies, Caveats: Because all emerging protein sources have a potential “ick” factor, market adoption will have to be closely monitored. Heavy market promotion will be required. Potential backlash from “traditional” protein producers. Partnerships with new alternative protein manufacturing needs time to develop.

Measures of Success: Reduced sales of traditional protein and increased sales of alternative protein. Mass market awareness and preference of alternative proteins. Viability of local alternative protein businesses. Increase in competition implies that this strategy is lucrative.

Influence:While Loblaws cannot directly affect the viability of the technologies, they can influence its development through investment, policy and partnerships. Moreover, while Loblaws will not be producing the products themselves, by sourcing producers fitting these criteria, they will have an influence on the nature of alternative proteins produced locally.

Image : Lab grown burger Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/06/science/a-lab- grown-burger-gets-a-taste-test.html?_r=0

88 STRATEGIES

CORPORATE OPERATIONS PRODUCTS SERVICES + EDUCATION STAKEHOLDERS + Acquire alternative Market alternative protein Encourage a change in PARTNERSHIPS protein sources from local products, such as whole consumer perception through Champion a return to manufacturing outlets. insects and algae under a slow rollout of alternative Canadian manufacturing and premium brand labeling proteins. Introduce processed insect production by encouraging (Black Label) to build trust flours to develop consumer Incorporate advertising alternative protein industries and allure around products. tastes and brand acceptance. campaigns which show the to develop in close proximity Offer synthetic meat in positive impact of alternative to stores (see Always Local). Invest in research processed meat products proteins on the economy and partnerships to develop under ‘Green/Organic label’ environment. affordable cultured proteins to encourage conscious and introduce to market Provide free samples and consumption. when the cost is competitive recipes. or lower than that of real Offer starter kits for growing Implement community meat. insects at home. outreach programs in schools on. to develop taste and early adoption of alternative proteins.

SIGNPOSTS: SIGNPOSTS: SIGNPOSTS: SIGNPOSTS: Cost of lab grown meat Increased sales of insect products Rise in cooking classes and Growth in other alternative production becomes lower cookbooks featuring alternative Rising meat prices farming practices than the cost of real meat/ proteins poultry/fish Increased sales in indoor urban Patents for alternative proteins gardening products

89 STRATEGY 2: BEYOND MEAT CONTINUED

SCENARIO FIT: HIGH TECH ADOPTION

TECHNICALLY STARVING GMO 2.O Cultured protein will be strong All forms of protein alternatives here, although insects may be a - cultured protein, insects and harder sell because there’s less of algae - will be strong here due to an incentive to switch. Insects and food shortage and high technology algae will have to be sold as an adoption. exotic/novelty item.

FOOD SHORTAGE FOOD ABUNDANCE

A TALE OF TWO WORLDS PLENTY FOR THE COMMONS While insects and algae will do well While insects and algae will do well in this scenario, lab grown meat will in this scenario, lab grown meat will not be viable due to low technology not be viable due to low technology adoption. adoption.

LOW TECH ADOPTION

TIMELINE: 2016 2030

Introduce and promote Offer tender for insect Introduce Black Label Launch starter kits Introduce ‘Green Present 100% cultured insect flour into stores. manufacturing and insect and algae for growing insects at Label’ for processed protein under ‘organic production locally. products. home. meat products which label’ in processed and Invest in research contain at least 10% frozen meat products. and development for cultured protein. cultured protein food products.

90 STRATEGY 3: BESPOKE WELLNESS GAMBLE STRATEGY

In this strategy, Loblaws can introduce a profitable product line and service which delivers a highly customized approach to nutrition based on genetics and microbiomes. STRATEGIES In line with Loblaws’ move towards a focus on wellness, this strategy will empower consumers to optimise health and wellness through what they eat. Looking to new technology advancements, Loblaws can be an industry leader in highly customized nutritional products and advice.

This strategy is a gamble because in scenarios with low technology adoption, genetic and microbiome diet customization may not be feasible, and/or will not be readily accepted by the public.

Risks, Contingencies, Caveats: Preserving consumers’ bioprivacy will be of utmost concern liability waivers for services and products will have to be imposed, research may not be robust enough to provide accurate recommendations within this time frame.

Measures of Success: Consumer interest and adoption, minimal backlash, enactment of bio privacy and personal data laws to protect the consumer.

Influence:While Loblaws cannot directly affect the viability of the technologies, they can influence its development through investment, policy and partnerships.

Image: Your genetic information may soon influence your diet Source: http://www.precisionnutrition.com/all- about-genetic-testing

91 STRATEGY 3: BESPOKE WELLNESS CONTINUED ACTIONS AND SIGNPOSTS

CORPORATE OPERATIONS PRODUCTS SERVICES + EDUCATION STAKEHOLDERS + Become a leader in micro- Leverage brand identity Consult consumers for PARTNERSHIPS nutrition technology and consumer trust for desires and concerns Partner with research through collaboration the Shoppers Drug Mart surrounding genetic testing teams advancing micro- and support of research Wellness Program and and hyper personalised nutrient technology. at Canadian universities begin offering genetic and diets. Influence policy on genetic which engage in custom microbiome profile tests. Generate market research and bio-privacy laws. plant genomics and human Market diet customization on the types of bespoke genetic profile testing. Develop highly secure data services suggesting products customers would management systems currently available products most likely adopt. to ensure genetic data is which match unique Create awareness programs safe and only to advise personal characteristics. on health benefits of customers on personal Market bespoke bespoke products. wellness plans. genetically modified food to discerning, high end customers to provide the ultimate personalised diet.

SIGNPOSTS: SIGNPOSTS: SIGNPOSTS: SIGNPOSTS: Significant advancement in Consumer adoption of other Consumer lawsuits against Data and bio-privacy laws technology for mass market genetic testing solutions data discrimination enacted adoption

92 SCENARIO FIT: HIGH TECH ADOPTION STRATEGIES

TECHNICALLY STARVING GMO 2.O This will be highly resonant, This will be highly resonant, but as interest in “eating for your bespoke diet plans will have to genes” will be very desirable in focus on maximizing nutrition with a technology centric and food synthetic food due to food shortage abundant world

FOOD SHORTAGE FOOD ABUNDANCE

A TALE OF TWO WORLDS PLENTY FOR THE COMMONS This will not resonate in this This will not resonate in this world – genetic testing will not world – genetic testing will not be advanced enough and/or not be advanced enough and/or not trusted trusted

LOW TECH ADOPTION

TIMELINE: 2016 2030

Partner and support Advocate with stakeholders for Offer genetic and Offer customized bespoke research at Canadian public policy to protect customer microbiome testing in products made according to universities which engage in genetic and microbiome profiles. Shoppers Drug Mart genetic profile. plant genomics and human Begin consumer consultations on Pharmacy. Provide genetic profile testing. concerns and desires for genetic customized diet plans for testing and hyper personalised clients according to their diets profiles.

93 STRATEGY 4: ACCESSIBLE WELLNESS ROBUST STRATEGY

Loblaws has the opportunity to become a leader in the Baby Boomer health and wellness market by leveraging and expanding their existing service model of home pharmaceutical delivery (through Shoppers Home Health). Loblaws can provide a new digitally-based platform which identifies the dietary needs of customers with specific health profiles. It then develops meal plans and places orders for these health conscious ageing consumers. By uniting their pharmaceutical delivery system and Loblaws’ prepared food capabilities, they will provide home food delivery of wellness-building meals.

While this is targeted to the Baby Boomer population, this service will also resonate with those with accessibility concerns, or health conscious individuals pressed for time.

This is a robust strategy because no matter the scenario, there will be a need to provide health conscious and ageing consumers with accessible health options.

Risks, Contingencies, Caveats: The ever-changing conventional wisdom of what is “healthy” means that specific dietary advice may be inaccurate. Liability waivers for services and products will have to be imposed in case of errors or negligence.

Measures of Success: Number of online orders for specialty food, improved wellness and longevity of customers

Influence:With their existing product offerings in food and pharmaceutical delivery, Loblaws is well-positioned to influence this space.

Image : Leveraging existing home pharmaceutical delivery and providing healthy food Source: http://mealsonwheelslynchburg.org/

94 STRATEGIES

CORPORATE OPERATIONS PRODUCTS SERVICES + EDUCATION STAKEHOLDERS + Leverage combined service Expand pharmacy Develop online platform for PARTNERSHIPS of food products and counselling program to digital dietary consultation, Partner with software pharmaceutical products include digital dietitian menu generation, recipes and developers and dietitian to create a new value consultations for customers food ordering. networks to create platform. proposition offering a health with diet related needs. Leverage customer trust Develop partnerships with promotion and wellness food Develop food plans and in Loblaws and Shoppers governments and other delivery plan. on. food packages which Drug Mart brands to create stakeholders to create address specific dietary awareness of a healthy diet to innovative public policy for considerations (e.g.:“Food for support wellness. healthy aging. Heart Health”)

SIGNPOSTS: SIGNPOSTS: SIGNPOSTS: SIGNPOSTS: Concentration of Boomers in Monitoring for most common Monitoring increasing level Changing government policies relation to Loblaws stores ailments affecting aging of tech savviness of Boomers for seniors such as retirement population to know which relative to tech advances to rates, pension plans, and so diets to prioritize choose right platform setup forth

95 STRATEGY 4: ACCESSIBLE WELLNESS CONTINUED

SCENARIO FIT: HIGH TECH ADOPTION

TECHNICALLY STARVING GMO 2.O Highly resonant, genetic Highly resonant, genetic information could play a role in information could play a role in dietary plans (see Bespoke Wellness dietary plans (see Bespoke Wellness strategy) strategy)

FOOD SHORTAGE FOOD ABUNDANCE

A TALE OF TWO WORLDS PLENTY FOR THE COMMONS Highly resonant, especially with a Highly resonant, with food food shortage, this is a service for abundance, this is a service focused survival on wellness

LOW TECH ADOPTION

TIMELINE: 2016 2030

Work with Dietitians Secure tax reform Roll out digital Canada and program or food nutritional counselling government to subsidies program and food plan identify the nutritional to support an aging delivery program in requirements for an population. neighbourhoods with aging population. a high density of aging customers.

96 STRATEGY 5: SECOND LIFE ROBUST STRATEGY WITH FLEXIBLITY

Loblaws has the potential to transform food that was traditionally considered waste into a desirable and affordable new product. By utilizing existing food preparation capacities STRATEGIES in store, Loblaws can develop new product lines such as food powders, dehydrated and preserved food, becoming a leader in giving food a second life. These ingredients can then be used for smoothies, baking, or even as a 3D printing medium (if viable).

This is a robust strategy because food waste is a concern across scenarios that must be addressed. With the adoption of 3D printed food technologies, there is some flexibility in this strategy to integrate these new capabilities where possible.

Risks, Contingencies, Caveats: Regulators may not approve the food. Market uptake may not meet financial targets or re-coup capital investment.

Measures of Success: Amount of ‘Second Life’ products sold. Reduced food waste in Loblaws stores.

Influence: Loblaws is well positioned to introduce this product line as the ingredients are readily available in store and dedicated processing space can be made available.

Image: Near expired food can be turned into food powders Source: http://mashable.com/2015/07/15/fopo-food-powder/

97 STRATEGY 5: SECOND LIFE CONTINUED ACTIONS AND SIGNPOSTS

CORPORATE OPERATIONS PRODUCTS SERVICES + EDUCATION STAKEHOLDERS + Invest in new in-store Develop a line of high Educate consumers on PARTNERSHIPS production facilities to nutrient, ‘second life’ food benefits of the nutritional Work with policy makers produce Second Life powder, preserves and and environmental benefits to address food health and products. frozen packaged goods of food re-purposing. safety concerns. Begin Research and from produce close to Develop awareness and Partner with technology Development around expiry date. marketing campaign for 3D suppliers and culinary ‘Second Life’ food: freezing, Roll out 3D printed food printed food technology. schools to develop 3D powdering and preserving medium created from Engage consumers co- printing food technology food close to expiry date. repurposed food powders creation exercise to and recipes Invest in research for for sale in conjunction understand the potential of transforming food powders with 3D food printing this technology. into 3D printable food technology. medium

SIGNPOSTS: SIGNPOSTS: SIGNPOSTS: SIGNPOSTS: Monitor feasibility and Monitor rising food costs as a Monitor popularity of “Intro Monitor food waste policy desirability of Second Life driver to reduce waste to 3D Printing” courses changes processing, 3D printed food

98 SCENARIO FIT: HIGH TECH ADOPTION STRATEGIES

TECHNICALLY STARVING GMO 2.O Highly resonant due to food Must be used in conjunction with shortage, 3D printing will be very 3D printing or else will be less desirable here. resonant in this world.

FOOD SHORTAGE FOOD ABUNDANCE

A TALE OF TWO WORLDS PLENTY FOR THE COMMONS This is highly resonant here given Must be marketed with a the food shortage. 3D printing will sustainability angle. 3D printing will not be possible, as technology will not be possible, as technology will not be advanced here. not be advanced here.

LOW TECH ADOPTION

TIMELINE: 2016 2030

Work with policymakers to Begin Research and Roll out new product If applicable, launch line address food health and Development into food line of Second Life Foods of 3D printed foods using safety concerns (eg. best repurposing technology. produced in store. Second Life products with before dates) Explore potential in 3D printed pre-programmed recipe foods through partnerships functions in printing with technology companies cartridges and culinary schools.

99 STRATEGIC CONCLUSIONS The strategies presented here are meant to provoke and inspire creative innovation in an adapting and changing world. These strategies are suggestions that could now be taken forward, incorporated and evolved, with considerations of both internal decisions and external events. The intent is to unite in a new shared understanding of future uncertainty - and potential - amongst key members of the management team (van der Heijden).

The implications of adopting strategies for the food system can be explored through experiential design. Specifically, “Time Machines” (Candy, 2010), are a useful way of exploring, enabling and understanding the potential effects and reactions of a strategy. The next section shows the process and lessons learned from employing this methodology.

REFERENCES Buchanan, R. (2015). Worlds in the Making: Design, Management, and the Reform of Organizational Culture. She Ji: The Journal of Design, Economics, and Innovation, 5-21. Retrieved September 11, 2015.

Candy, S. (2010, August). The Futures of Everyday Life: Politics and the Design of Experiential Scenarios (PhD Dissertation). University of Hawaii at Manoa.

Van der Heijden. (n.d.). Scenarios, strategy, and the strategy process. Per Research: Proking Strategic Consideration, 1(1). Retrieved February 22, 2016.

100 “One cannot think well, love well, sleep well, if one has not dined well.” Virginia Woolf

101

TIME MACHINE

It’s the year 2026 and you are at the pre-opening exhibit for Purity, a Danish restaurant phenomenon that started a movement. As you enter the gallery you are bombarded with headlines about food contamination and its detrimental consequences. You hear sounds of a concrete jungle and notice that they are coming from a video portraying the dangers of contaminants in food.

You follow the wall on your right– covered in images of contaminants... Surprisingly, once admitted entry to the gallery space, the mood and tone is quite contradictory. Your Purity experience begins with a warm greeting and instructions to ‘purify’ your hands. The sounds of singing bowls hit your ears, you smell the slight scent of lemon, your eyes adjust to low light and catch pictures of beautiful frozen landscapes...

“Welcome to Purity, come in and be pure.”

Gongs chime. It’s time for an announcement. You are welcomed to the opening exhibition by five ladies. They introduce themselves, explain the dishes in your hands, and express great pride that the movement is coming to Toronto.

“To Purity” they say, “To Purity!” you repeat in unison. You take your time exploring the artifacts in the exhibit. On your way out, you are handed a small bottle with a black charcoal pill in it. Upon leaving the room you feel pure, even though you are entering back into the contaminated world you came from. You anxiously await the opening of Purity in Toronto, craving the feeling of purification once again. INTRODUCTION TO THE PURITY TIME MACHINE Time machines are immersive experiences that simulate potential futures and are useful to internalise the nuances and implications of a potential scenario. The staging of the time machine creates space to have the dial “turned up” and make living memories which participants take with them beyond the experience.

The time machine, Purity, focused on making food as “pure” as possible. Through various rituals, tools, ingestible purifiers and food treatment methods, Purity brought a new perspective on the restaurant experience in 2026. The time machine took place in a gallery event to celebrate the pre-opening of the Toronto location. By showcasing the different artifacts that Purity has to offer, the event introduced Toronto residents to the Purity movement. The experience was moving, visceral and multi-sensorial.

High impact elements from each scenario helped weave together the alternate reality, Purity in 2026.

HIGH TECH ADOPTION

GMO 2.O Rebuilt trust in science and GMOs TECHNICALLY STARVING Abundance of food powered by Smart technology optimizes costs, science nutrients and time Growing confusion surrounding food and nutrition Technologies for food preservation FOOD SHORTAGE FOOD ABUNDANCE PLENTY FOR THE COMMONS A TALE OF TWO WORLDS Bacterial contamination outbreak The rise of urban gardens and inner Local food production thriving city farming collectives Demand for naturalization and More rituals around dining mental health issues on rise Certain products sold at a premium Food production and distribution system restructured LOW TECH ADOPTION

Opposite page, clockwise from top left: Lessons in Purity – a home guide to help consumers achieve the Purity lifestyle at home– and Bon Appétit Magazine from January 2022 documenting the growing awareness of the Purity movement; Chelation baths remove certain heavy metals and contaminants from food; Charcoal capsules to absorb impurities; Bio-reactive coating on plate reacts to the presence of harmful bacteria; Aeroponic Garden Prototype developed in collaboration with MIT uses water and air to produce nutritious fruits and vegetables; Jelly Appetizer made of agar-agar, ginger for detoxification, and antimicrobial silver leaf; alongside a glass of sparkling water with purifying silver; A typical table setting in a Purity restaurant includes protective glass dome, individual UV light to kill pathogens, and salt and charcoal shakers used to absorb impurities in food. Image: Participants were asked to purify their hands upon PROVOKING INTENTIONS entering the Purity experience The time machine experience introduced a futuristic simulated reality, that is at its essence based on societal trust in science and GMOs. This world showed an increased popularity in pseudoscience fad diets. The intent was to provoke the notion that a society may find it easier to look to the private sector for solutions.

PARTICIPANT IMPRESSIONS Many of the nuances of the Purity experience – the profiteering, the dubious science, the polarized nature of the food subcultures – were sensed and verbalized by the participants. Interestingly, though, there were also perceptions that were not anticipated; fears of racial exclusion and accusations of slacktivism. These conversations lead to themes of elitism, segregation, and even cult-like manipulation. Purity was seen to have played on fear tactics such as those that exist today (for example; the increasingly popular avoidance of gluten). The Purity brand implied that conventional food was contaminated, thus implying a pretentious feeling of entitlement to those who can afford it and an implication of filth for those who could not. LESSONS FOR IMPLEMENTING STRATEGIES FOR LOBLAWS There are some important lessons that emerged from the Purity experience that can be applied to potential food strategies for Loblaws. Given that our connections to food are deep and complex, any change to the food system is likely to be met with passionate responses. Caution must be taken with the introduction of high tech products such as diet plans, cultured meat, or bespoke genetically modified food to address consumer fears and objections. Moreover, there is mixed understanding of food science, and whether valid science or not, changes will likely be met with both fanatical adoption or harsh skepticism. While food is universally required, new technologies will be unaffordable for the masses. When introducing medically beneficial, yet expensive, food technologies, Loblaws will have to consider the ethics of making healthful food available to only a portion of the population. These valuable observations generated from the time machine participants are important considerations for the success of the proposed strategies.

Image: Mortar and pestle of purifying salt and charcoal “You don’t need a silver fork to eat good food” Paul Prudhomme CONCLUSION

“Success is empowering, but success is also enthralling and embeds the seeds of failure. Incumbent firms that dominate their markets often fail to maintain that domination for long, despite having all the advantages they enjoy of market leadership” -Gerard Tellis via Buchanan, 2015

The work presented is a complete look into the process of foresight methodology as taught in Foresight Studio, Strategic Foresight and Innovation, OCAD University, 2016.

The work began by exploring the trends and many facets of how people around the world relate to and interact with food each and every day. This rich contextual information helped build four different scenario worlds, each with its own reality and set of opportunities and limitations, as we move towards 2030. Each world presented can be used to understand both the future’s potential and begin to consider the variability of what could come. Certain descriptive elements of each scenario world were drawn out and integrated into an immersive, staged experiential time machine. This experience was used to present participants with an opportunity to tangibly feel how a particular strategic approach might imagine itself in the future. It is against this interwoven backdrop of findings that five key strategic options were presented. Using the findings from all aspects of the foresight approach we delivered five strategic directions that Loblaws could build upon to plan their strategic map for the future.

109 As Loblaws continues to engage in strategic conversations with this process in mind, a key point must be considered. The strategies presented here are only one frame to view the world through. However, in order to ensure the success of these strategies, continued use of design thinking tools must be employed. These steps - thinking, reflection, and action - must be employed continuously and cyclically until the futures become clear (Buchanan, 2015).

The process is not complete; it is only the beginning.

REFERENCE Buchanan, R. (2015). Worlds in the Making: Design, Management, and the Reform of Organizational Culture. She Ji: The Journal of Design, Economics, and Innovation, 5-21. Retrieved September 11, 2015. 110 111 THE TEAM

HALA BEISHA JANICE DE JONG

Hala is a storyteller, organizer who believes that people With a background in Industrial Design and Psychology, are the heart of business. With advanced degrees in Janice de Jong is a trend forecaster and design strategist business strategy, strategic marketing, branding and based in Kitchener, Ontario. Driven by the belief that communication, she has worked with organizations at understanding today can build a better tomorrow, she various stages of development and brings hands-on is passionate about inspiring others to create the future. operational experience from the field. Specialising in the high tech industry, her work has been seen in the hands of millions of mobile phone users. Hala is quick to see and understand complex inter- She holds numerous patents and her work has been relationships between people, things and the “big” idea. recognised by several design awards including Red Dot. She’s a firm believer in the power of individuals to mobilize for social good and the value of active community A dynamic speaker, Janice has guest lectured on the engagement. She is also a certified professional life coach intersection of trends and design at various universities, and currently conducting research on the subject of including Art Center College of Design, Carleton emotional human resilience. University, Wilfrid Laurier University. She holds engaging workshops, including at the Fluxible 2015 conference on Her motivation is to deliver work that is bold, ambitious how triangulating user research techniques can lead to and pragmatic. Hala has applied her skill sets in a innovative products. multitude of settings such as: working as a key member of the Opening Team of two Four Seasons hotels, By day Janice is pursuing her Masters of Design at OCAD collaborating on an eight month strategic assessment of University, but by night she is an avid knitter, gardener, a theater group in Toronto, creating a Graduate Insights cook and wannabe yogi. She volunteers at the Kitchener Report for an affiliate of Engineers Without Borders Waterloo Humane Society as a Cat Adoption Counsellor, (Admitting Failure: Insights Report at the Intersection of travels solo to far-flung places against better judgement, Innovation, Creativity, Change Management, Leadership and dreams of owning an alpaca farm. and Organizational Behavior), and tapping into funding opportunities for the first “Fail Forward Conference” at MaRS Discovery District. DONNA KLAIMAN ROXANNE NICOLUSSI JENNY WHYTE

Donna believes that we have the power to shape Roxanne Nicolussi is a budding strategist with a Jenny is a creative thinker that has a knack for the future if we apply good design thinking and strong drive to innovate change. By refusing to say synthesizing and integrating diverging concepts. foresight to all aspects of living. Design of public no to opportunities, she has held impressive titles An active observer, she’s always looking for clues as policy, environments, education, products, such as Vice President of Marketing for the Laurier to how to unlock a deeper understanding of people, and services will shape how we live and leave Consulting Club, Creative Director for an academic place and action. a sustainable legacy. In this rapidly changing journal, Web Editor for an art and literary magazine, world that drives today’s high performance Advertising Assistant for WLU publications, and Previously studying social geography and history, organizations, we will need to come up with new a Graphic Designer for an adhoc advertising club she has an acute awareness of how place and history ways for supporting wellness, creativity, and high – all in the last year of her undergraduate degree. create the tides of the current. While wading levels of productivity. We can support health- Her fearless spirit has also enabled her to work and through these tumultuous currents, she became promoting behaviors by encouraging people of all travel in 15 different countries. committed to learning how to skillfully navigate ages, abilities, and personal resources to re-think a change in course, she feels the world urgently what is possible, imagine the future and plan and Able to adapt smoothly into different roles and needs. participate in innovation and change. situations, Roxanne has taught herself several design programs and continues to explore new Her first career was an educator. Working in primary Donna has a richly textured career woven together software. She sees businesses as more than just schools all over London, UK, she explored the through many facets of her professional life as profitable entities, but as catalysts for change. power and the descent of the current educational a practicing occupational therapist with lengthy system. A system rot with stale pedagogy and engagement in health policy and program design; Roxanne has had past occupations in corporate classist intent. She did her best to cultivate patience and her personal experience in researching the communications, writing speech notes for the and inspire young minds to think curiously and application of art to reconstruct a community torn Ontario Minister of Northern Development and critically. Coming back to Canada, she knew she by civil conflict, All these experiences provide the Mines and internal communications for Ontario wanted to participate more actively in the remix backdrop for her passion to promote wellness and Power Generation. She became too passionate education desperately needs. creativity in communities and workplaces. about communicating her own messages, and decided to steer towards strategic foresight and The Strategic Foresight and Innovation program Having facilitated many multi-stakeholder innovation, as well as academia. These interests continues to provide the box of tools that could initiatives from design to implementation, Donna brought her to pursue OCAD University’s Master be used to fix and remixed current conditions. believes that a successful leader should strive to see of Design in Strategic Foresight and Innovation Foresight studio in particular, has left her intrigued the world through others eyes, hear the sounds that program. She wants to inspire and create in one about the role future studies could play in inspiring others hear and sense the meaning of their words to way or another. a 21st century classroom. foster a culture engaged in co-creation. A yoga and hoop addict in her pastime, she remains In her spare time, Donna explores the mystery of committed to keeping herself and her attitude weaving and textile art, volunteers at a food bank, about life, light-hearted, positive and grounded in and practices yoga to nourish her body and spirit. appreciation. APPENDICES APPENDIX A: MAPPING TRENDS TO SCENARIOS

PLENTY FOR THE A TALE OF TWO TECHNICALLY TRENDS GMO 2.0 COMMONS WORLDS STARVING Rise of Meal Sharing Platforms • Rise of the Machine • Eco Conscious Dining • Label Gazing • Forever Fresh • • The Zero Mile Diet • • • Digital Gastronomy • The People vs. Food Science • • • • Kitchen of the Future • Future of Food Shopping • • Genetically Modified Meat • • Cultured Food • • Fishing for Solutions • • • Need for Seeds • Low Income? How Health • • Rebranding the Gross • Animals as Sentient • • Bodies as a Resource • Fighting Colony Collapse • • • Rethinking Food “Waste” • • • APPENDIX B: WINDTUNNELLING

SCENARIO 1: GMO 2.0

PLENTY FOR THE A TALE OF TWO TECHNICALLY GMO 2.0 COMMONS WORLDS STARVING

M* (only if GMO L Own the Urban Local Food System with free) Signpost - H H Vertical Aeroponic gardens changes in GMO (because this perception requires high tech)

H (great for food Pioneer Digital Gastronomy H L L repurposing!)

H M Signpost - monitor Develop the Hyper-Personalised Diet L L (not the customization personalized food) trends in medicine

Champion Alternative Proteins (lab H H H H grown meat)

M (amplify the Embrace New Flavours (and Newcom- flavour to make H H H ers) - Western Asian foods people feel more satiated) SCENARIO 2: PLENTY FOR THE COMMONS

PLENTY FOR THE A TALE OF TWO TECHNICALLY GMO 2.0 COMMONS WORLDS STARVING

Become your own supplier (Manage M (larger growers, Ambassador of Green Program - L H H not local small redistribution centre) scale growers)

Become your own supplier M (would have to H H L (Marketplace Partnerships) be GMO)

Green Consultants M (GMO at home) H H L

M (as long as M (as long as Champion Alternative Proteins Loblaws sells the H H Loblaws sells the (mealworm manufacturing) finished product) finished product)

H (at high end of Embrace New Flavours (spice trader) H H H the market) APPENDIX B: WINDTUNNELLING CONTINUED

SCENARIO 3: A TALE OF TWO WORLDS

PLENTY FOR THE A TALE OF TWO TECHNICALLY GMO 2.0 COMMONS WORLDS STARVING

Re-purpose (Rebrand/Repackage L H H H bruised) Food

Foster community engagement L H H H

Starter Kits (meal worm) M H H M

Meal Sharing Hub (app) M H H H

H (but to curb New utensil design - “feel full” M H H obesity)

Embrace new flavours (selling tajines to M H H H newcomers) SCENARIO 4: TECHNICALLY STARVING

PLENTY FOR THE A TALE OF TWO TECHNICALLY GMO 2.0 COMMONS WORLDS STARVING H (assuming Become your own supplier - large scale H (assume not GMO technology greenhouses with robotic workers (or H H food) advanced - invest in growers) signpost)

Champion Alternative Proteins M (distrust for M (it might not even H H (cultured meat) synthetic products) be possible here)

Embrace New Flavours (technology to M (only the real identify and mimic flavours - fillers and H ( no fillers) M available to the H fake for low end and real for high end) high end)

Enable Shoppers to Plan Nutritious H L L H meals - through genetic info

M/H (they love the tech in growing Education - on latest tech in home food, but may not L L H growing prioritize home grown)